The “hottest day” is not that hot, and very irrelevant
So the news cycle went hyperbolic over a single dubious hot day in records that only go back 0.01% of human existence. Remember when “30 year trends” were all that mattered?
Let’s ignore for the moment that the error bars on measurements of global temperature in 1899 would make any normal scientist blush. Who believes for one minute even today we can measure the global surface temperature to one hundredth of a degree? The cringeworthy insignificant digits were everywhere. On Monday the Earths surface was supposedly 17.01 degrees Celsius for the first time in “human history”. Then Tuesday it was 17.18C, Hallelujah. Who are we kidding?
Probably the biggest lie was to call this “human history” as if the ancient Egyptians were measuring the temperature on Earth and every day of the week. Are we really sure we know what the temperature was on July 3, 2201 BC? Maybe it was 17.31C that day — prove me wrong? We have no idea how hot the “hottest days” were for 99% of human civilization. The best proxies we have can’t tell us what the temperature was for 24 hour periods. We can’t compare 20 year smoothed averages with a single 24 hour snapshot. Well, scientific prostitutes can, but not real scientists.
If it was a record “hottest day”, it might have been the hottest day in the last 40 years (maybe, and if only we had good thermometers, didn’t put them at airports, near air conditioners and incinerators, didn’t go electronic, hide the calibration data, and adjustify the records, eh?). It’s a big so-what.
And in the end we know it there have been hotter years before in human civilization, and probably thousands of them.
Who is trying to erase the Holocene?
Don’t they teach climate scientists anything anymore? Karsten Haustein, from the University of Leipzig was telling the BBC that July will possibly be the hottest “since the Eemian”, 120,000 years ago, as if the Holocene optimum period didn’t exist.
A mere 5,000 years ago sea levels were higher, corals were happy, people thrived, and Greenland was a lot warmer. This was a global phenomenon — higher sea levels and some 6,000 boreholes drilled around the world show the same pattern.
It was hotter for thousands of years and CO2 was irrelevant. What the world needs are some real science journalists who can ask these badly trained junior modelers what happened to the Holocene?
This graph shows the ice-core data up until 1855. The last 150 years (1705 to 1855) are highlighted in red to show the warming as the Earth began coming out of the Little Ice Age.
Sea levels were higher all around the world
How could the oceans be higher all around the world if the world was not warmer? Sea levels have been falling for the last 7,000 years around Australia, they used to be nearly 1m higher in the South China Sea, South Africa and Polynesia and it’s a similar pattern around the world (thanks NoTricksZone). Studies on mangroves in Brazil show sea levels were about 2.7 meters higher in the mid-Holocene, and mangroves grew 34 kilometers further inland. (Fontes et al 2017). CO2 Science lists references all over the world. I am barely skimming the surface.
Other researchers estimate the waters flowing out of the Pacific Ocean past Indonesia were a full 2 degrees Celcius warmer 7,000 years ago. (Rosenthal, (2013). Somehow corals did not go extinct, ancient viruses didn’t wipe out the Sumerians, and humans spread across the Earth.
Sea levels were higher off the very geologically stable Western Australia 7,000 years ago. Across the other side of Australia in NSW sea levels were 1 – 1.5m higher.
Sea level has been falling for 7,000 years in Western Australia (Lewis et al)
A thousand stories of human pain and triumph from the last ten thousand years are being erased from the records. Australian Aboriginals apparently struggled through a 1,500 year mega drought about 6,000 years ago (see McGowan et al 2012). And massive fires raged across far north Australia 4,000 years ago that were far worse than today. (Rehn et al 2021).
Another proxy suggesting the Holocene warmer temperatures were global is the heat flow data measured in 6,000 boreholes across six continents down to about 2km. Sometime from 5,000 to 10,000 years ago temperatures were hotter than they are now.
Location of boreholes for heat flow studies.
6,000 boreholes drilled around Earth show temperatures were hotter in the holocene. Figure 1. Suite of reconstructions of surface temperature history over the last 20,000 years. Nine curves correspond to three values of thermal diffusivity. The reference level is the mean of the instrumental record from 1961-1990 AD. (Huang et al 2008)
The hottest day in the last 150 years is irrelevant.
REFERENCES
Fontes et al (2017) The Impacts of the Middle Holocene High Sea-Level Stand and Climatic Changes on Mangroves of the Jucuruçu River, Southern Bahia – Northeastern Brazil, Radiocarbon , Volume 59 , Issue 1 , February 2017 , pp. 215 – 230. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/RDC.2017.6
Huang, S. P., H. N. Pollack, and P.-Y. Shen (2008), A late Quaternary climate reconstruction based on borehole heat flux data, borehole temperature data, and the instrumental record, Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L13703, doi:10.1029/2008GL034187 [PDF] Long blog discussion on boreholes.
Lewis, S.E., et al., Post-glacial sea-level changes around the Australian margin: a review, Quaternary Science Reviews (2012), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2012.09.006 [abstract]
Hamish McGowan,Samuel Marx, Patrick Moss, Andrew Hammond (2012): Evidence of ENSO mega-drought triggered collapse of prehistory Aboriginal society in northwest Australia, Geophysical Research Letters, Vol 39, Issue 22. DOI: 10.1029/2012GL053916 [Abstract]
Rehn, E. et al (2021) A late-Holocene multiproxy fire record from a tropical savanna, eastern Arnhem Land, Northern Territory, Australia [PDF]
Rosenthal, Y., Braddock K. Linsley, Delia W. Oppo (2013) Pacific Ocean Heat Content During the Past 10,000 Years, Science 1 November,Vol. 342 no. 6158 pp. 617-621 DOI: 10.1126/science.1240837 [Sciencemag.org ]
It was “so hot”, and yet no one outdoors noticed.
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The new “most extreme temperature” was 0.2°C higher than the last “most extreme temperature”, which probably went unnoticed by all the people complaining that their drinks were warmer than they expected, due to bars adhering to the exhortation from a July 2023 article in Scientific American urging a reduction in the ice used making cocktails to reduce the energy cost (and consequential CO2 emissions) from making all that ice.
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As Tony Heller has pointed out, for most of the modern era, say the last 70 or 80 years, maybe 100, there were very few reliable temperature measurements from most of the world. Those that exist mainly come from the United States, Western Europe and Australia and New Zimbabwe. Virtually none from the rest of the world, and yet from these four geographic localities, they make inferences for the whole world.
If I can find the Heller video, I’ll post it, but it’s hard to search his videos now due to his severe shadow banning.
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This is the video from Tony Heller I was talking about.
“Is The Global Temperature Record Credible”
https://youtu.be/yqZGgaZaXig
The segment where he looks at the lack of recorded daily temperature data starts at around 10:43.
Most of the data on which claims of global warming are made is simply fabricated.
Please feel free to refute any aspect of the video.
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Note the small number of views of that video, 140k over four years. There should be hundreds of millions. That is the power of shadow banning censorship. That video alone could blow apart the whole anthropogenic global warming fraud.
I can’t find that video on free speech NewTube where Tony also has a channel.
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Tony Heller has been consistently diligent in using nasty FACTS to expose the fraudsters pushing the ‘anthropogenic climate change’ scam. And what are his qualifications? Well, you can check them – as I’m sure that David has – on Tony’s website. But, perhaps to make it easy, here’s one of the optional ‘side-bits’ that I’ve assembled with some of Tony’s work highlighted: http://www.galileomovement.com.au/media/SaveThePlanetFACTSHistory.pdf.
And – Oh Look! Joanne Nova gets a few mentions too – what a surprise!
(The starting point to my assemblages is http://www.galileomovement.com.au/media/SaveThePlanet.pdf. Who know what that leads to – probably not approval by Sancta Dr Greta or Professor Timothy though! Oh Dear!)
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Absolute Hyperbole. Why just look at “Human History”? How about some history of the Planet –
https://www.climate.gov/sites/default/files/styles/full_width_620_original_image/public/2023-01/climateqa_global_surface_temps_65million_years_2480.png?itok=KBwxUiYO
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Oh come on that graph is just cherry picking.
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And a BIG cherry it is too……..lol
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A voice in the wilderness…
Brian: You are all individuals.
Horde in the streets below:
Yes, we are all individuals!
Mass psychosis has hit peak stupidity. Oh how I long for an extra 0.09 degrees Celsius… pffft and it’s gone! No word on WA’s coldest June since time began, as reported by the BoM via the ABC a few days prior to this psyop?
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You are right, this is not science. It is desperation for a headline about warming which does not exist. So we now have a manufactured result which suggests that record warming of 0.01C is a reason for spending $1,500,000,000,000 a year on windmills which do nothing to reduce CO2? The Egyptian pyramids were far cheaper and as useful.
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And is this really what the United Nations was created to do? As for billions to control the weather?
Is that truly the biggest problem on the planet? Or is it just a very comfortable living for 40,000 opportunists looking to justify their elite existence doing absolutely nothing. And another similar group in the European Union?
We are drowning in millions of full time salaried elite Climate Change spruikers who pretend the sky is falling. And this is the best they can do in the peak of the Northern summer? The world’s hottest day by 0.01C?
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“And is this really what the United Nations was created to do? As for billions to control the weather?”
I think they are using the weather hysterics to control billions.
$ and people.
They know this stuff.
It’s just P.T. Barnum level hucksterism.
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Yeah. Neil Oliver has it sorted out.
“There’s nothing green about the green agenda…just plain old greed!”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kD9KG-j7C0M
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There are now millions of full time salaried elite Climate Change spruikers who pretend the sky is falling.
And this is the best they can do in the peak of the Northern summer? The world’s hottest day by 0.01C?
If that’s the best they could do, it’s a sad indictment on the process.
John Cook did a far better job claiming 97% of (Climate) scientists agree by culling 99% of the 10,000 candidates until he had the figure he wanted. Surely they could be a bit more inventive? It’s not warming if 0.01C is the best you can do.
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>”John Cook did a far better job…”
Yes, even the NOAA now cites his “expertise”:
NOAA Goes Full Orwell with Climate Propaganda Seminar: ‘Either believe climate is primarily human-caused & catastrophic, or you are ill-informed’
https://www.climatedepot.com/2023/07/04/noaa-goes-full-orwell-with-climate-propaganda-seminar-either-believe-climate-is-primarily-human-caused-catastrophic-or-you-are-ill-informed/
“In a peculiar turn of events, NOAA’s recent organization wide seminar on combating disinformation cited ‘Skeptical Science’s’ creepy John Cook, If this is the level of expertise we’re resorting to, then it’s time to delve deeper into the complexities of NOAA’s tactics.”
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The problem is they never tell us how they get their hundredth of a degree accuracy from a very wide dispersion of measuring sites. Experience points to a possible degree accuracy would be the norm.
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Karsten Haustein is a political gamer posing as a scientist in order to manipulate opinion and fabricate things to get a desired outcome. We already know what that is. Was the global temperature 17.18C – sounds really sciencey. Sounds like bulls..t to me.
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>”Karsten Haustein is a political gamer posing as a scientist”
Political gamer yes but I do check in at his website every day:
GFS 2m Temperature Anomaly
http://www.karstenhaustein.com/reanalysis/gfs0p5/GFS_anomaly_timeseries_global.html
Apart from the fact that the GFS series is nowhere near the CO2-forced climate model “realizations”, the graph is a big tell. The “hottest day” was the result of a massive SH spike of nearly 1C (from 0.5 up to 1).
Wild swings like that are NOT climate.
Also, the anomaly again breached the 1.5C “limit”, this time by more than the much hyped “temporary” breach early June. But click on the graph and keep clicking until you get back to the El Nino 2016 and 2015. We survived that massive limit breach so I think we’ll live on from this minor excursion.
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Does anyone believe that they could collect and quality control all the values from all over the world in 24 hours?
Even the 3rd world countries?
It sounds like a complete scam.
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Consider it’s your full time job to come up proof of warming somehow with a sensational mid summer climate disaster statement.
A real indisputable proof of rapid man made Global Warming. And you are free to make up any metric.
And the very best you can do is warming of 0.01C.
This is not the Olympic 100 metre sprint final or the 50 metre freestyle. 0.01 does not indicate warming at all. At very best it means there is no change.
And most likely it means the world is actually cooling.
But don’t the media love it. Somewhere, somehow 0.01C just killed someone. We’re all going to die!
Who was paid to produce this? And why?
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I want to know what the 40,000 people of the UN and another in the EU and NATO are doing about trying to negotiate peace in the war in Ukraine?
Isn’t that the whole justification for these organizations? Forget all the dead. Isn’t the war bad for CO2?
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Well, considering it was the EU meddling in Ukraine in 2014 to overthrow democratically elected President Yanukovych for refusing to sign the start of the accession process to EU membership that started all of this, they are not doing anything. NATO and the USA joined in once the civil war had been started. The 9,000 odd who died in the civil war looks quite small compared to Ukraine losses of more than that every month now.
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In the BBC article there is this:
” additional heat is now welling up to the surface of the Pacific ocean”
This makes it sound as though there was hot water deep in the ocean and it was “welling up.” That is nonsense. The writer has never heard of the Pacific Warm Pool and the mechanisms that create it nor allow it to slosh back across the Pacific Ocean.
Not that it matters but my temperature was about 14 C° below the record here. Just a warm day — summer! 😊
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Rather than getting all worried about the ‘Pacific Warm Pool’, wouldn’t they be better off doing something about the Great Pacific Garbage Patch.
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Hottest day ever and now the Pacific Garbage patch, is this a fantasy thread?
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They have faith that a natural variable combining with industrial CO2 will force temperatures higher.
“While southern hemisphere temperatures will drop a bit in the next few days, chances are that July and August will see even warmer days yet given that El Niño is now pretty much in full swing”.
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BOM has not called it, WMO has. This science consensus seems to of strayed off the party line.
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It was a BBC article, nought to do with BoM, they are not calling El Nino, yet.
A fantasy thread indeed, take an interest. For example, a weak Modoki El Nino and negative Southern Annular Mode dominated the Little Ice Age in New Zealand.
‘Associated land-based temperature and precipitation anomalies suggest both colder- and wetter-than-normal conditions were a pervasive component of the base climate state across New Zealand during the LIA, as were colder-than-normal Tasman Sea surface temperatures.’ (Lorrey et al 2013)
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You literally just wrote what I wrote, except I did it in 7 words.
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My comprehension is poor.
If you glance at the first graph in Jo’s post you’ll see the 8.2 kiloyear event and 4.2 kiloyear event. Surely its time for another event?
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BBC >”chances are that July and August will see even warmer days yet given that El Niño is now pretty much in full swing”
Except this “hottest day” wasn’t El Nino driven – see GFS 2m-T #5.3.1 upthread.
It was simply due to a rapid SH winter spike, Nothing extraordinary happened in the NH.
5.3: Explaining Patterns of Air Temperature
https://geo.libretexts.org/Bookshelves/Geography_(Physical)/The_Physical_Environment_(Ritter)/05%3A_Air_Temperature/5.03%3A_Explaining_Patterns_of_Air_Temperature
Latitudinal Patterns (north to south patterns)
The values of the isotherms validate our general conception of the distribution of world temperatures. Low latitudes that experience the highest sun angles throughout the year have the highest air temperatures. The highest temperatures occur in the tropical and subtropical deserts of North Africa, Australia, and the southwestern portion of the United States. Because the angle of the sun doesn’t vary much during the year and day length is about the same, annual temperature ranges tend to be small, on the order of only a few degrees. However, daily temperature ranges can be quite large as pointed out earlier in this chapter.
High latitude locations have much lower annual temperatures as the sun never gets directly overhead and sun angles are quite a bit lower than those in low latitudes. However, the seasonal temperature range is large. Cold air masses penetrate south dropping air temperatures during the winter months. During the summer, warm tropical air masses stream toward higher latitudes raising temperatures. The movement of air masses and more varied sun angles results in larger temperature ranges than one experiences in the low latitudes.
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Text book stuff but who goes there?
It’s not just the seasonal range, the further south the greater the swings. There’s been some wild stuff going on in the Southern Ocean and Antarctica lately and it ain’t heat. There was no “hottest day” in that region. And there’s been plenty of record cold in Australia lately. Also some pressure systems creating some crazy wind (esp. here in NZ).
It’s good to be getting a bit of a reprieve now – finally a clear sky, sunlight, and no wind. That came from weather in this region, not El Nino or climate change. If that SH swing caused the “hottest day” ever, well fine by me.
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The Eemian temps were much warmer than today + much higher sea levels and our early Holocene was warmer as well and even their ABC admitted that sea levels on our east coast were about 1.5 metres higher just 4 K years ago.
And our Holocene is cooler than the other interglacials over the last 400 + K years ago according to the Antarctic ice core studies.
Of course the LIA was the coldest period for the last 10 K years and thankfully we’ve had some warming over the last 300 years.
And Human lives were brutal and short for the last 200 K years ( under 40 years) until the start of the UK’s Industrial REV and global life expectancy jumped after 1950 from 45.5 yrs then and 73 years today.
Our poorest continent African life expectancy was about 36 yrs in 1950 and has soared to about 64 yrs today, even though their population has increased from 227 million in 1950 to 1460 million today.
This recent Human flourishing and wealth has been made possible by a warmer climate, fossil fuels and more R & D in medical research etc.
But Humans lived very short and brutal lives for 99.9% of the previous 200 K years.
Our climate today is the best climate for 100s of thousands of years and yet our so called scientists and crazy pollies + MSM want to send us back to where we were during the LIA and extreme poverty.
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Man made Global Warming is a massive world industry created and maintained by the UN. And it is entirely fake. Plus no one can actually control CO2 in the air. So they talk emissions and only democracies must comply.
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You are so right but the way events are unfolding here and overseas, disinformation will be dealt with and free opinion and the dissemination of such will bring the state guard dogs down. You have got to laugh when they call US fascists.
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Don’t worry, “the hottest day eeevvvaaahhh” will become true when the Australian Government bans “misinformation” and “disinformation” and bans visits to Australia by people with opinions that don’t follow the Official Narrative such as Donald Trump Jr..
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Sorry David, you beat me to it!
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And if we are playing this game, how is the temperature of the coldest day going?
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And if the hottest day is only hotter by 0.01C in 40 years, that’s warming of 0.025C per century. So we can stop installing windmills.
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Solar driven wavy jetstreams can do that. It only takes one “heat dome” to skew the entire global metric. Meanwhile in other places it’s not so hot. I don’t think anyone could describe Australia as “anomalously warm” right now.
Then there’s the wildly varying latitudinal extremes – between -50s and +40s at present. 17 is somewhere between that but unremarkable in that context. Same Antarctic location adjacent Australia that is -50s now was -67 a few days ago.
I’m looking at the Windows App MS Weather which is readily available from the task bar. 559 Mb and the largest App on my system. Photos next at 546 Mb. Not complaining because it’s a great animation of global or local weather, whatever is the interest.
I’m sure MS sneaked it in as an update because I don’t remember MS Weather being on my system when I bought it. Or maybe I didn’t look at the time.
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>”It only takes one “heat dome” to skew the entire global metric”
Same with MSL. Warm water accumulates at the Western Equatorial Pacific where the current through to the Indian Ocean is constricted. That bulge skews the entire satellite MSL metric.
Meanwhile in the Eastern Pacific there’s vast areas of sea level FALL:
Is anthropogenic sea level fingerprint already detectable in the Pacific Ocean?
Palanisamy, Meyssignac, Cazenave1 and Delcroix (2015)
https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/10/8/084024
Scroll down to Figure 1(a) (select High Res image).
Big red area in the west is what hikes up the entire global metric. But in the East Pacific all the blue is FALL. Some is over 4 mm/yr.
Oh, and Palanisamy et al didn’t find the human fingerprint – “still too small to be observable by satellite altimetry”.
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The Climate Change Alternative We Ignore (to Our Peril)
https://theethicalskeptic.com/2020/02/16/the-climate-change-alternative-we-ignore-to-our-peril/
“Part of The Heat May Indeed Be Coming from Beneath Our Feet”
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To quote mumbo-jumbo Matt McGrath’s nonsense non-science in the Beeb’s puff-piece from Tuesday 4 July:
“Monday’s high is the warmest since satellite monitoring records began in 1979. Experts also believe it is the highest since widespread instrumental records began towards the end of the 19th century.”
Delusional. Hysterical. Spurious. Trash.
3… 2… 1… and here comes Greta…
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Plus, see Tony Heller video I posted above about the LACK of widespread temperature records from the past. And alteration of recorded data since that time.
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UAH June numbers are out, and, steady as she goes…
-0.36 USA
0.06 Aus
0.29 S Hemi
0.47 N Hemi
0.38 Gobull Norming
Antarctica’s still brass monkey temps, brrr!
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When I saw this I thought Jo will be “over the target” on this one and she doesn’t disappoint. Weapons grade cherry picking – 1 data point . Bravo.
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Again,I linked to this article from Willis Eschenbach and if it is true we have a whole new ball game.
Here’s the OWI Data graph he linked to yesterday and is headed “Share of global primary energy consumption by source”. And this clearly shows that in 2021 Solar was just 0.65% and Wind was just 1.17%. Or under 2% combined after wasting TRILLIONs of $ for decades.
So is OWI Data wrong and is Willis Eschenbach wrong as well?
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/global-primary-energy-share-inc-biomass
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Makes a lot of sense when before present is 1950, or 72 years ago
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Does it Peter? If only you read my site, you’d know that CO2 hasn’t warmed Greenland much at all since the ice cores end.
This graph shows the instrument record in Greenland from about same time as the ice cores end. There’s no signal there from CO2 at all, unless you think most of the effect from CO2 came in 1870 – 1880.
It’s not OK to slap the instrumental record on ice core records, because instruments have much more noise, and ice cores are always smoothed by the decades it takes the snow to compact into ice with bubbles. My point in showing this instrumental record is that there is no CO2 signal there, just natural cycles.
Greenland hasn’t warmed significantly in the last 140 years. Where is the effect of CO2?
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False. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-022-05517-z#citeas
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Jo >”Greenland hasn’t warmed significantly in the last 140 years. Where is the effect of CO2?”
Simon >”False” [Hörhold et al (2023)]
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-022-05517-z#citeas
Key term is “warmed significantly”. And a question re CO2 effect (or lack of).
Hörhold Fig 1 (a) has a sharp inflexion at 1800 after consistent cooling – that’s not a CO2 effect. Hörhold – “a long-term warming trend, apparent since ad 1800”. That warming only catches up to the level of 1000 i.e. nothing “significant”.
Figure 1 (a)
Hörhold et el:
The only “significant” warming Hörhold et el found was only the latest decade 2001–2011:
That decade was a large spike (see Fig 1a) which Hörhold et el describe as “pronounced natural variability” – again no CO2 effect.
The 2001–2011 spike begins at a level similar to 1500 i.e. nothing “significant” except a “pronounced” short-term spike of “natural variability”.
Plenty of spin from Hörhold et el but when all they’ve got is a short-term 10 yr spike of natural variability that gets them over the level set 1000 years ago then they haven’t got significant warming or a CO2 effect.
And given the up and down spike after 1400 that 2001–2011 spike is not guaranteed to stay at an elevated level either.
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Thanks Simon. See Fig 1a — Just another tortured hockey-stick then? “Congrats” — Despite all the evidence, their last 1,000 years looks nothing like the GRIP core did. The medieval warm period has been erased, even in Greenland, and you expect us to take them seriously?
As for meltwater, did you look at Fig 1c? The Current temperatures are close to the same (and within the errors) of those in the 1930s. That’s the best you can do?
And the meltwater rates are barely above the meltwater rates of 1880. Where are those error bars? What caused the meltwater of 1880?
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Jo,
Stop circulating that misleading GISP2 chart. You should know better that that.
https://www.carbonbrief.org/factcheck-what-greenland-ice-cores-say-about-past-and-present-climate-change/
https://www.reddit.com/r/climate/comments/51ils7/greenland_gisp2_ice_core_last_10000_years/
https://skepticalscience.com/print.php?r=337
Yesterday was the ‘hottest day ever’ by a significant margin. It will likely be beaten again before the month is out.
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Thank you Simon for showing how accurate my comment @#18 is, how can *you* be so stupid?
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how can *you* be so stupid?
Takes a life time in the school system, snout in the taxpayer funded swill trough.
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What is the margin of error nowadays. Used to be .5 of a degree, that temp does not even make the error bar for the error bar
Average temp is .01 degree hotter at 17 deg’s. I am terrified, spontanious combustion of everything occurs at 17.1 degrees.
So I don’t have to look, what was that significant margin?
Should I write a Will?
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.01 deg is ‘significant’ ?, ok.
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“As a species we are doomed to our own stupidity.”
And here is the proof, thanks simon.
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The U.K. Met Office routinely claims heat records from thermometers that are so poorly sited the World Meteorological Society (WMO) attaches an error estimate stating they could be out by up to 2°C
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From Turtles comment yesterday.
https://dailysceptic.org/2023/07/05/met-office-admits-to-promoting-u-k-heat-records-despite-knowing-they-could-be-out-by-2c/
This is what happens when you don’t click save after editing.
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Carbon Brief – “This modern temperature reconstruction, combined with observational records over the past century…”
So combine low frequency data with high frequency data.
Wasn’t that “Mike’s Nature trick to hide the decline” ?
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Simon, the chart Jo has used says years before present with 1950 labelled as the reference. The chart you say is false had 2000 listed as the reference but Jo edited it to 1950 for her own use. Your Reddit link is a 7 year old post that had Jo’s 1950 label on it even back then. She has not been publishing a misleading chart.
Would you be gracious enough to post an apology?
Your carbon brief fact check link states that even with the chart correction from “present” to “1950” that those proxies show a warmer past than the actual “present” temperature on the carbon brief amended charts.
Your comment “Yesterday was the ‘hottest day ever’ by a significant margin” is proven to be false by your own linked data.
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Actually, Jo created that famous graph from the start with geologist David Lappi in Feb 2010. Others took it, copied and used without permission or attribution (even deleting off the original website and credits). That made it hard for me to let them know when I updated it and hard for readers to visit the original source.
And obviously as soon as I knew the GISP team think 1950 is “the “present” I fixed the scale, and it makes little difference anyhow whether the graph ends in 1900 or 1850 since Greenland has barely warmed in the last 140 years, and the variability of the GISP temperatures is as much the point as the absolute (smoothed) peaks 5,000 and 6,000 years ago. See my reply to Peter F above.
The bigger question with such an iconic graph as the GISP data is why the GISP team or NOAA/ NASA / IPCC/ Hadley team didn’t do the graph that Lappi and I did years ago, labeling the Medieval, Roman and Minoan warming peaks. How come an unfunded geologist and science writer at home needed to graph it from the original data?
Perhaps the cult-scientists didn’t want the public to know how much Earth changes temperatures naturally, and how little it has to do with CO2?
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Thanks for that clarification, Jo, as I’ve seen versions of that with all sorts of claims of ownership stamped on it. One of the most legible & concise graphics out there – great work.
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A lot of work in those posts.
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‘ … if the present rate of warming continues, the Earth should pass well beyond any temperatures experienced in Greenland during the Holocene by 2050.’
That is ludicrous, we are at the end of the Holocene, however there was a sharp temperature spike at the end of the Eemian interglacial. Cool and dry conditions prevailed over the next 100,000 years.
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Over the last few days i have noticed the woke left virtue signallers have after 3 decades stopped running around in ever decreasing circles shouting Klimate Khange and have now learnt two new phrases being La Nina and El Nino and what have they done with this new found vocabulary? Not much it seems, except to use EL Nino as a reason for the temperature to rise above the made up safe hand/guard rail of 1.5C (oh the humanity of it all)
Their collective knowledge stops short of saying once La Nina is back the temps will drop back down below the made up number of 1.5C hand/guard rail of global temps.
I think it was always hard to measure just how large the climate change delusion was and then the covid response showed the delusion was on a planet wide scale, even now as we sit here we see record numbers of cardiac injuries/deaths, record numbers of excess deaths, record numbers RSV flu cases, record numbers of cancers, record numbers of type 1 diabetes and people will still tell you it came from a bat and the vaccine is safe and effective.
Now they claim the two hottest days ever have just come to pass and a majority of the people on this planet will believe it. As a species we are doomed to our own stupidity.
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Yes, that’s the climate alarmists new angle. But they’re also claiming ( eg CSIRO) that ” climate change” makes La Nina/ El Ninos more intense – or some garbage like that. Which is predicated on their modelling and we know modelling is just estimated guessing – which at the end of the day is just “guessing”.
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Sea levels have been falling since maxing out about 8,000 years ago.
The only inverse correlation to this fact is that accumulated ice levels have risen.
Our current sea levels have been effectively unchanged through the last one thousand years.
What’s a few millimeters here or there in such a large chaotic system. Oceans, rivers, delayed or accelerated run off etc.
Earlier post.
https://joannenova.com.au/2023/07/only-6000-years-ago-the-world-was-warmer-and-the-sahara-was-lush-green-and-wet/#comment-2682389
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A bit more detail from 2021.
” During the Holocene Maximum, just 8,000 years ago, polar temperatures were 2 degrees warmer than now, ”
A year or two back I was able to access high resolution graphs of Earths sea levels; they showed an oscillating fall from at least 4.2 metres above present over the last six or seven thousand years from the overshoot.
Some studies suggest that the fall could have been six metres in some areas.
Specifically I can remember being told in Geology 1, nearly six decades ago, that oceans had fallen 1.2 metres in the last 2,000 years.
These records of sea level are surely a confirmation that Earths poles are cooling, or at least not warming, and holding more water.
The relative stability of sea levels in my lifetime is surely confirmation that the Earth is not “warming” and my perception of summers in recent decades is that they are mild compared to pre 2000.
So much for modern science.
KK
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Monique Ryan is taking it seriously. Do these people realise that measuring the temperature of the whole world is completely nonsensical?
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Put your mask on.
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It’s a sure guarantee, one can bet,
That the hot news to come from the Met.,
Though scientifically hollow,
For next year and to follow,
Will each have the hottest day yet.
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I trust that one will find the following linked article an interesting and relevant addition to the current topic, even though it is written by a scientist of a YEC persuasion.
https://answersingenesis.org/environmental-science/climate-change/should-we-be-concerned-about-climate-change/
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From our media ; Hottest global day ever 17.01 deg C . . .
We are being lied to repeatedly and the public just suck it all up.
No wonder people like myself have so little respect for my fellow citizens..
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The actual temperature of the world yesterday, according to about 80,000 readings worldwide was 14.16C, as recorded on the WUWT website monitor.
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I’m amazed at how little hype the Canadian fires are generating. I thought the world (western world of course) would be told to stop and listen as the world leader addresses the unwashed masses by now. But I haven’t heard much at all.
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You know that, I know that, and everyone who reads this blog knows that. I’m not sure what it will take for a majority of the rest of the Western world to realise it.
It’s truly disheartening, these days.
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What’s the BIG DEAL about the / a Hottest day? Depends HOW it is measured: “THEY” tell us June was hottest in uk …. really, How about COLDEST NIGHTS in a ROW, followed by JULY so far where it is colder than many days in DECEMBER. Too many Birds around seeking food and think it’s Autumn so dark at night… clouds cause cooling and do not give a blanket to keep warm…so many contradictions to suit a narrative. People will starve when crops fail so easily….. no fruit now unless you like Rhubarb and gooseberries: all else has failed this year PLUS what cherries survived have now been plundered and spoilt but flocks of JACDAWS …Howzat? – it’s usually the Starlings that do the damage.
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When they take the worlds temperature again can they shove the thermometer into the UN ? Please ?
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This obsession with trying to make a half a degree of warming an existential threat is getting quite tiresome. We just had the hottest day ever , who cares ? No one died from it . In fact because more people die from cold than heat maybe someone was saved but the attempt to equate hotter with existential threat is pathetic. All I know is it’s been bloody freezing for weeks here so I just wish some of that heat comes here.
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BUT – The Earth’s Surface does not have “a temperature”. Why? Because temperature is an intrinsic, not extrinsic, property of matter.
You can take a series of temperatures of different samples of matter and calculate the average, but that average (oC, oF, Kelvin or Rankine) has no meaning, except as a kind of hand-waving proxy for heat (Joules).
Take a silly example: What is the temperature of a glass of gin & tonic? If I tell you that it was made from gin at 20 oC, tonic and lemon both at 5 oC and a lump of ice at-15 oC, what is the temperature of the whole? The “average” is 3.75 oC but the true answer is we don’t know. We don’t have the masses of each element, nor the specific heat capacities, nor the latent heat, nor any knowledge of the environment.
Now try this with a planet composed of many different materials, with different specific heat capacities, water in three phases, gasses at varying pressures, one side sunny, the other dark, rotating, heating, cooling all at the same time… It has no “temperature” in any meaningful sense.
And if it has no temperature, it is meaningless to discuss a future 1.5oC warming because that won’t exist either.
The whole Global Doominess is underpinned by an unspoken assumption of temperature that just isn’t true. But they carry on regardless; nobody likes a show stopper because the show, and the money, might stop 😉
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