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Governments say its safe but planes are grounded as thousands stay home

In the new pandemic era with a global social media, people are not waiting for governments to tell them travel is risky.

According to IATA’s press release, airlines are experiencing serious declines in demand:

  • A carrier’s 26% reduction across their entire operation in comparison to last year.
  • A hub carrier reporting bookings to Italy down 108% as bookings collapse to zero and refunds grow.
  • Many carriers reporting 50% no-shows across several markets.
  • Future bookings are softening and carriers are reacting with measures such as crew being given unpaid leave, freezing of pay increases, and plans for aircraft to be grounded.

It almost gives me hope that people are smart enough to outwit their governments and protect themselves despite the incompetence at the top. But it doesn’t get the governments off the hook — it just shows how easy it would have been to stop the flights. The problem is that while the people who are afraid of getting sick are staying home, the people who are surrounded by the sick would want to fly in if they could.  Therefore countries that want to stop their hospitals being overrun still need to stop those flights.

With only two cases of Covid-19 here in Western Australia (both from the Diamond Princess) and no sign of community spread, the state government just declared that all international school camps are henceforth cancelled (including for private schools — see how “private” they really are?) So kids without the virus can’t fly out, but people with the virus are welcome to fly in.

As Jude says on Twitter, his daughter just flew in to Melbourne from South Korea and no one even bothered to take her temperature.

Our chief medical officer says ” it was no longer possible to completely prevent people with the coronavirus from entering the country”. Ironically, because the sick people can come here, soon healthy ones won’t want too. Voluntarily, the people we do want as tourists will all stay home. The borders will semi-shut without government action anyway, but it’s the most useless kind of border control.

Let the pandemonium begin

Two weeks and two days ago South Korea had 30 cases. Now it has 5,186. Of those, twenty eight people have died, which sounds not-too-awful til you realize that it’s a two week lag to death (or even three), and 28 out of 30 is a 93% mortality rate. Except, of course, it isn’t. It means South Korea had far more cases two weeks ago than they realized. It’s the same for Italy and Iran. How many other places are about to leap forward…?

Australia for one, thanks to the back door non-quarantine for Chinese students. The irony here is that this man from China possibly caught the virus in the Middle East on the way. He might not have caught the virus if he stayed at home.

At least there are only 11,000 of them.

A Chinese man believed to have contracted the coronavirus during 14 days of supposed self-quarantine in Dubai has raised a red flag about the “back door” for fee-­paying university students entering the country.

More than 11,000 Chinese university and high school students have used the third-country layover mechanism to sidestep the ban on Chinese nationals flying ­direct to Australia.

Next great leap? USA.

Up to 1 million people could be tested for coronavirus in the US by the end of the week, health officials say

(CNN)Up to 1 million people could be tested for coronavirus by the end of week, the FDA said, as cases across the US rose to more than 100 and health officials warned the number will keep climbing.

Cases of the virus have now been reported in 12 states — the majority of them in California and Washington, where six people have died.

About a quarter of the current cases were likely transmitted through US communities,

People don’t believe the government when they say there’s no need to stock up on supplies either

It’s the first run on shop shelves I’ve ever seen.

For some reason Australians are buying lots of toilet paper and tissues, but leaving some tinned fish and soup in the stores. The Lucky Country is not well trained in the prepping culture. Anyone would think we ate toilet paper and tissues.
shoppoing panic Australia

toilet rolls to save the world

.

9.5 out of 10 based on 59 ratings

243 comments to Governments say its safe but planes are grounded as thousands stay home

  • #
    OriginalSteve

    Wisdom is required. Clearly the aithorities arent grasping the situation properly, or dont seem too worried about it spreading?

    “For the protection of wisdom is like the protection of money, and the advantage of knowledge is that wisdom preserves the life of him who has it.”

    ( Ecc 7:12 )

    74

    • #
      OriginalSteve

      Hmmmm…will we see social media companies “filtering” crippled?

      https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/twitter-tells-employees-to-work-from-home-as-tech-firms-react-to-coronavirus/ar-BB10HvLY

      “Twitter on Monday became the first major U.S. corporation to strongly encourage its employees to work from home to avoid spreading coronavirus.

      ““Beginning today, we are strongly encouraging all employees globally to work from home if they’re able,” the San Francisco-based social media company wrote in a blog post. “Our goal is to lower the probability of the spread of the COVID-19 coronavirus for us — and the world around us.” Twitter had more than 4,800 employees at the start of 2020.

      “The announcement followed news earlier in the day that cases of the viral infection had been identified in the California counties of San Mateo, Santa Clara, Sonoma and Placer, and that four additional people had died from COVID-19 in Washington state, bringing the total U.S. death toll to six.

      20

  • #
    John F. Hultquist

    “It’s the first run on shop shelves I’ve ever seen.”

    I remember this one:

    https://priceonomics.com/the-great-toilet-paper-scare-of-1973/

    The ground had been set for a consumer panic; all it needed was a spark to ignite it. When Johnny Carson cracked a joke about toilet paper on his television talk show, things got serious. “You know, we’ve got all sorts of shortages these days,” he told 20 million viewers. “But have you heard the latest? I’m not kidding. I saw it in the papers. There’s a shortage of toilet paper!”

    The next day there was!

    131

    • #
      John F. Hultquist

      Oh, I should have mentioned:
      Stores are out of all sorts of things in the Seattle area, including toilet paper, and then ending up on ebay — at very high prices.

      141

    • #
      GlenM

      Thanks for that reminder John.F. The issue about tissue resolved. I will check out my local outlets today and then buy up big.

      60

    • #
      NuThink

      There was too an artificial shortage of toilet paper in the UK in the 1970’s (IIRC). So one media outlet joked that salt was going to be in short supply because the (proverbial) Siberian salt miners had gone on strike. So there was panic buying of salt with a resultant shortage. The media had to retract the story about the Siberians, saying that the salt was not got from Siberia, but was actually mined in the UK.

      50

      • #

        I remember a toilet paper scare in the UK. It was because the staff at the biggest manufacturer were going on strike. That week we were able to buy a choice Sunday joint we couldn’t normally afford because people had spent all their money on toilet paper.

        20

  • #
    Sputnik

    Imagine being of the mindset that you value stocking up on toilet paper over food.

    The gullible are well and truly falling for the hype on this one.

    92

    • #
      Another Ian

      Fear of running out of toilet paper

      Here is the word you need (IMO)

      https://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=acartohygieiophobia

      101

    • #
      Ian Hill

      For some reason Australians are buying lots of toilet paper and tissues, but leaving some tinned fish and soup in the stores.

      That’s because you told us to Jo and I thank you for it. I got a little bit extra in case my family are caught short (pun intended), but otherwise just enough for the immediate future. I also bought two cans of shaving cream, now enough to last me two years, but only because it was on sale at half price.

      80

      • #
        Graeme No.3

        I went to my local supermarket this afternoon and one of the things on my list was toilet paper. I was a bit surprised to see 2 trolleys with a pack of 24 rolls, but when I got to the shelves there was a lot of vacant space. I had a choice of a 3 pack, an 8 pack or a 24 pack. The prices were $5+, $13.56, or $9. I bought the 24 pack.

        But I did ‘stock up’ on bird seed. I now have a whole week’s supply. If the virus strikes the birds will have to fend for themselves.

        50

        • #
          Ian Hill

          My son works in the city. He used to refill the shelves at Woollies when he was a university student. I visited him this evening and he had a lot to say about the “nonsense of panic buying”. Didn’t people know that all Australian-made toilet paper is manufactured in Adelaide? I didn’t know that. I did know that it used to be made at Snuggery (near Millicent) in the south east of SA last century but now that area is dominated by the Lake Bonney wind facility.

          He said that everyone buying their lunch at Coles in the city today had three items – their food, their drink and their 30 pack of toilet paper tucked under the arm. It would make a great cartoon he reckons – or when they go home the bus is full of passengers with a 30 pack on their laps!

          Any budding cartoonists reading this – go for it he said! 🙂

          30

  • #
    Dave

    Could one of the early symptoms be exceptionally bizarre and dangerous driving on motorways?
    Had some pretty hairy moments this week here in NZ.

    61

    • #
      farmerbraun

      I think it’s called a state of drive; that was the term used 40 years ago , when I was doing a paper entitled The Psychology of Freedom.
      I’m fairly sure that this is intended.

      21

    • #
      Graeme#4

      Probably an influx of overseas Uni students with a stopover in the East Island on their way to Australia.

      50

    • #
      yarpos

      Normally I would say its just Chinese tourists, but I guess they are thin on the ground right now

      10

    • #
      Greg in NZ

      Not just the “motorways” Dave –

      back roads, side roads, country roads and island roads have been “bizarre” since the calendar ticked over to 2020.

      Could be ‘pandemic vision’ – or sumpthink.

      I did notice Elon Muscrat’s satellite train quietly & robotically passing overhead last week…

      10

  • #

    As a matter of interest are people in australia wearing face masks on cities? In towns? In small communities?

    40

    • #
      OriginalSteve

      Generally no. Its not seen as a problem – yet.

      Mind you the MSM here is doing its best to try and convince everyone the sky is falling.

      It will sink in once people cant get stuff in the supermarkets….

      71

    • #
      PeterS

      Only a tiny proportion of people form Asian countries. I saw one who had her mask pulled down while talking to someone else as they walked on the street.

      40

    • #
      GlenM

      None observed where I live. Maybe they wear them in private – maybe to bed.

      60

    • #
      Greg Cavanagh

      I tried to buy masks from the local chemist. I think the girl was surprised I even asked; she said they don’t have any, and it would probably be a month before they could get any in.

      Even if I did buy the masks, they’d be in reserve. I simply wanted to beat the rush.

      60

      • #
        Graeme#4

        15 pallets of hand sanitiser came in to a large chemist warehouse in Perth recently and went straight out the door that day.

        30

      • #
        Annie

        I tried to get some in our local chemist to help with the smoke early in the year. Not a chance, even then, before the virus panic set in. The smoke from East Gippsland was pretty bad for a while, could hardly see across our small paddocks sometimes.

        40

        • #
          Sceptical Sam

          Ditto for me when i was stuck in the smoke ans ash on the South coast of NSW over the November/February period, Annie.

          I’m back in Perth now and you can’t get a mask for love nor money – unless you’re looking to be Anonymous. 🙂

          30

        • #
          OriginalSteve

          Might be worth buying some copper pipe from the hardware store in case you need you need to distill your own grog….

          10

    • #
      Konrad

      Yes, some are wearing masks, particularly in areas of high Asian population near universities.

      It should be noted that masks are not unusual at other times. Japanese students in particular feel it is impolite to not wear a mask in public if you have a cold.

      60

    • #
      yarpos

      Depends where you go. Generally no, but my wife and daughter went to Melbourne Central last weekend (CBD shopping centre) and felt the odd ones out as they wernt masked up. It is a particularly Asian oriented centre these days, so most of the mask wearers were of Asian extraction.

      20

  • #
    Penguinite

    The only people still flying are The Greens flying to protest about people flying. Save your money Harry you’re going to need it!

    120

  • #
    David A

    Jo Says, “Two weeks and two days ago South Korea had 30 cases. Now it has 5,186. Of that, twenty eight people have died, which sounds not-too-awful til you realize that it’s a two week lag to death (or even three), and 28 out of 30 is a 93% mortality rate. Except, of course, it isn’t. It means South Korea had far more cases two weeks ago than they realized. It’s the same for Italy and Iran. How many other places are about to leap forward…”

    Bingo! The flu C.F.R. is based on historical PAST records, every case of that year either cured or fatal. The best WAG with this virus is, AFAICT, total cases/// total fatal now now, plus estimated death percentage of serious or critical now likely to die/// plus X percentage of last two weeks cases likely to go critical and die, then calculate estimate total deaths as a percentage of total RESOLVED cases.

    So from a few days ago we had 84,173 infected, 2876 deaths, 36,880 cured, 44,417 active, ,8,100 critical. 20,000 of those total infected were less then two weeks old, so most of those had not had time to go critical. Take a guess at 2,800 of those last 20 k infected going critical. (conservative reflection of critical percentage when hospitals are over-run.) So a conservative estimate of over 10,000 serious to critical, and about 20 percent of those die. So a very conservative and likely 4,876 fatality in the first 84,173 cases, or 5.8 percent mortality! (Not the flu! In fact it is about 58 times worse with a higher R-naught and greatly reduced population immunity as compared to the flu.)

    Let this run wild as some suggest and then full on panic will result, far worse then the quarrantines.

    60

    • #
      Geoffrey Williams

      Simple, close the borders. Isolate the country and slow down the spread.
      This will give us valuable time to assess the situation.
      Business won’t like it but . . .
      GeoffW

      100

    • #
      Environment Skeptic

      Yep….everyone believes Korean news.

      20

    • #
      tonyb

      Interesting. two days ago we in the UK were where Korea was just over 2 weeks ago so will follow the trajectory

      30

  • #
    Geoffrey Williams

    Well the panic is on. Rightly or wrongly the panic is on.
    The authorities, via social media, will try to settle things down.
    (The PM spoke briefly on 2GB this morning.)
    Lets hope common sense prevails.
    GeoffW

    41

    • #
      PeterS

      Common sense? Too late. You can tell governments are worried when they repeatedly say don’t panic. Even Trump looks worried. Whenever they say that it means they left it too late and the panic is well on the way. Put on you seat belts as we are about to enter a rough ride. I’m also worried about the repo crisis developing in the US. That will take some months to come into full effect. In the US banks stopped trusting other US banks. This has introduced a liquidity crisis resulting in the US Federal Reserve Bank to enter and support the repo market. It’s a crisis under development. If the repo market blows up we will have our next GFC.

      120

      • #
        OriginalSteve

        Will elderly be given “selective” treatment due to thier age?

        https://www.cbsnews.com/news/coronavirus-outbreak-washington-nursing-home-king-county-medical-response-lifecare-center/#

        “Health officials have focused in on a cluster of conronavirus infections inside a nursing home outside of Seattle. Family members of LifeCare Center’s elderly residents told CBS News their loved ones are being isolated in their rooms and their temperatures monitored daily, but they are concerned those showing symptoms will not be tested or hospitalized until critically ill.

        “The U.S.’s six coronavirus deaths have all been reported in Washington state. Officials in Washington’s King County, where the nursing home is located, revealed plans to buy a motel and set up modular units to house coronavirus patients requiring isolation.

        “Carmen Gray, whose mother Susan Haley is under quarantine at the nursing home, told CBS News’ Jonathan Vigliotti that she had asked to get her mother tested for the virus.

        “Gray said they told her that Haley “did not meet the criteria at this time.”

        “”They’re being held hostage in a petri dish,” she said.

        “Outside of Washington, at least 14 other states have been scrambling to prepare as the number of cases between them all rose to at least 102.

        30

        • #
          yarpos

          Some level of triage based on age is pretty standard in medical treatement, I dont expect this will be any different.

          20

  • #
    Bill In Oz

    Jo, this government has stuffed up completely
    Hunt & Morrison & Murphy have sold us out !
    We do not matter as much as the big
    Bastards who lobbied them them
    Not to close our borders to
    Chinese students, South Koreans and Iranians & Italians.

    And so now we have
    Our own medical personnel going down infected with the virus
    Because no one warned them it was coming
    Or stopped it from coming.
    This government has betrayed Australians !
    I will NOT forgive !

    72

  • #
    RickWill

    Anyone would think we ate toilet paper and tissues.

    Well if you can’t sh#t, you can’t eat then you die – who does not know that!

    51

    • #
      el gordo

      The word on the ground was get rice, lentils and bumf or we won’t survive two weeks in isolation.

      00

  • #
    Geoffrey Williams

    How much of our food and supplies comes from China and Asia or generally from overseas?
    How long before we get the next shipment of the above ?
    And how long before they have to ration petrol?
    Panic? – not me.
    GeoffW

    40

    • #
      RickWill

      I believe China is a net importer of food and almost all raw materials; exception being rare earth metals but their demand globally is linked to manufactured output from China, which will impact earlier than the rare earth supply. With China bunkered down, I expect demand for food has slowed. People will be in survival mode and money running low when not working.

      Demand for fuel will be reducing. There should be price falls. I do not think Iran supplies much oil into western world. Oil production is high productivity so does not take much labour to keep refineries and ships operating. If the virus take holds in other Middle East countries then oil production could take a big hit. Producers would be wise to quarantine production staff. Likewise ship crews should have some manner of quarantine.

      90

    • #
      Bill In Oz

      That depends on which ‘community’ you are part of.
      If you are a member of an ethnic community
      In Australia
      Imported food stuffs are essential :
      Think rice especially or noodles.
      And various specialities.
      That is everyone with a background which is Chinese, Indian,
      Thai, Vietnamese, Japanese, Korean,
      Malaysian, Sri Lankan, Iranian, Northern Italian.
      Etc etc.

      I’m hoping that our farming communities
      Will be largely isolated from this disease by distance.
      But a large part of our fresh produce & fruit is picked by
      Back packers & migrants,
      Who travel around Australia as they work.
      It will be catastrophic if one of these workers
      Is handling food while infected.

      70

  • #
    RickWill

    My wife told me that some mid-week lady tennis teams have stopped shaking hands after matches.

    It is clearly apparent that there is widespread concern about the risks of the virus – in my view it is justified.

    60

  • #
    Bill In Oz

    Well I did not buy huge rolls of toilet paper.
    But I have bene ‘prepping’
    It’s an awful Yankie term which I loath,
    But we did learn in Boy Scouts decades ago
    “Be Prepared ”
    So what aspects of our supply chain are most vulnerable ?
    1 : Probably prescription meds and supplements made overseas
    So lay in a month’ supply or so.
    2: Canned, frozen & dried foods probably have a big lag in the supply chain
    We are buying what was produced about 6 weeks ago.
    So shortages of these items will not show up for a while
    3 Ditto for dried foods like rice, pasta, noodles.
    But these will always keep in the pantry anyway.
    So buying spare packets is not big problem.
    By the way I’m seeing that supermarket shelves here in SA
    which stock large 5 kg bags of rice are getting low.
    Our Chinese & Indian & Filipino residents are stocking up !

    As for toilet paper, we it does not go off & stores indefinitely.
    But when it’s needed, it’s needed !
    Not having toilet paper rolls is thus an essential.
    Ditto for paper tissues.

    80

    • #
      robert rosicka

      Couldn’t get a full script of Clonozepam filled yesterday at a Chemist Warehouse , I was given a third of the usual quantity.
      They said they would phone when the rest came in .

      30

      • #
        yarpos

        A wag just posted a 4 pack of Quilton toilet paper on the Wangaratta Buy,Swap and Sell page for $85. Thats the spirit!

        30

        • #
          robert rosicka

          I’ve been seeing varying amounts all day but that’s the cheapest so far Yarpos , my favourite is still 3 sheets for $100 but I’ve seen about 4 rolls selling for a mil .

          10

    • #
      Environment Skeptic

      Emergency Toilet Paper Problem: Reaction, Solution. Thought i would post this solution again.

      One for each member of the family. Or if you visit a friend and they are out of emergency toilet paper.

      “Portable Travel Bidets”

      “With our range of hygienic portable bidets available to customers in Australia, you never need be without this handy piece of kit ever again.”
      https://www.bidetsonline.com.au/portable-bidets-traveller-bidets/

      00

  • #
    RickWill

    Reported numbers infected in Iran is increasing rapidly. Latest news reports 23 MPs have the virus and their parliament suspended:
    https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/coronavirus-iran-23-mps-test-positive-parliament

    70

    • #
      Bill In Oz

      They need to resume parliamentary sessions !
      The more infected there the better !
      Natural selection working to get rid of the religious extremists
      Who don’t believe that this disease is real !
      Sarc !

      80

  • #
    Konrad

    I believe a lot of the public concern stems not from media stoking panic, but simply the public seeing “authorities” act like complete idiots.

    Who could trust Tedros the Tardulent now? Can you imagine the chaos that would have resulted if the Trump administration had not rejected his worthless advice?

    And Dr Brendan Furphy? Blathering on about fighting imagined racism instead of fighting the virus.

    And above all, the public knows that the virus doesn’t have wings or legs. We know that the only way it can spread here is if we allow it. And the public are watching the government do just that.

    How can you trust a government that let young students from the hot zone into our schools and universities?! The young have low ACE2 receptor count. The perfect people to spread the virus without symptoms while showing negative on NAT of throat swabs? The is no need to ask “what were they thinking?” because they clearly weren’t thinking at all.

    If the government want to prevent panic, they need to start acting like they have brains.

    241

  • #
    Gerry

    What’s going on with flight crews ? If they are o a plane with an infected person, Are they being quarantined on arrival ? Are they being tested even ?

    80

    • #

      Gerry look up for David A’s question

      21

      • #
        Peter C

        What was his question?

        00

        • #

          who disinfects the planes? Fascinating isn’t it. I reckon contractors do it.

          40

          • #
            Annie

            For a long time now our pilot son has wiped down everything he has to touch on the flight deck with special wipes.
            I took to doing the same in my seat more recently after seeing the state of the entertainment screens and people with their filthy feet or shoes putting them where they shouldn’t (yuk, after visiting the loos).

            60

          • #
            Annie

            Cleaners come onto each aircraft after pax have departed but they do seem to miss stuff. One trusts that they are more thorough now.

            50

            • #
              Bulldust

              These people are generally not being paid big enough wages to care all that much. Bring the wipes.

              I am travelling to the US for a cruise next month … unfortunately a lot of money is tied up already which won’t be refunded unless the cruise company cancels. So I will be taking more precautions than usual.

              90

              • #

                you are an inspiration. Dammit I will still go to Seoul.

                31

              • #
                Sceptical Sam

                Dammit I will still go to Seoul.

                Can I send you some travel money to help?

                40

              • #

                thanks SS… as much as you can afford

                60

              • #
                Sceptical Sam

                But seriously GA.

                You shouldn’t go.

                There’s every chance you’ll have difficulty getting back or, at least, have to spend a couple of weeks in quarantine.

                Yep. I know South Korea is not on the shut-down list yet – but it soon will.

                Unless, of course, the Government wants to demonstrate a level of negligence not seen since Julia Gillard’s carbon tax fiasco.

                60

              • #

                Yes Sam it is a dilemma and there are too many variables to consider to have any certainty. They are not direct flights so a third country is involved. Flights are being cancelled all over the place to deal with the economics of the number of passengers (ie indirectly related to the virus). New restrictions and rules are being introduced which will affect travel. Internally there are likely to be restrictions to movement, closures of tours, museums etc.

                20

              • #
                David A

                I deed, how close and personal are you going to get to clean the seats and armrests of every seat of a plane full of people from a city with infections ongoing in the wild?

                Do they wear Hazmat suits?

                10

              • #
                David A

                In deed, how close and personal are you going to get to clean the seats and armrests of every seat of a plane full of people from a city with infections ongoing in the wild?

                Do they wear Hazmat suits?

                30

              • #

                Good question David. I’m sure you’ll find a place to ask it too.

                01

    • #
      william x

      Gerry asked:

      “What’s going on with flight crews ?”

      I do not know what other carriers have implemented other than the actions used by Qantas.

      Q: If they are on a plane with an infected person, Are they being quarantined on arrival?
      A: No

      Q: Are they (flight crews) being tested even?
      A: For the previous flight evacuation of citizens to Aust by Qantas crew, I do not know.

      I do know that for the current red kangaroo flights, there is no company testing of fight crew.

      The present extent of prevention is a box of hand sanitiser placed in the crew lounge.

      We rely on other countries to check passengers health and travel history before they board a flight to Australia.

      40

  • #
    It's the End of the World... Again

    People die from complications from Corona-viruses every year. There seems to be some general confusion that this is an influenza, but it’s not that serious. Influenza floors healthy people within hours and is a very serious virus. This is the cold you get every year that takes 2 weeks to shake off – obviously it’s a bit more virile than usual. If you’re unlucky it will get into your lungs, and if you’re already unwell or frail it could kill you. Don’t panic.

    46

    • #
      Geoffrey Williams

      ‘it could kill you, but don’t panic’ . . . I think not!
      GeoffW

      20

    • #
      David A

      Its the end…

      Here is the difference…
      Seasonal flu vs Cov19.

      1. The Cov19 has an R-naught at least double the flu.
      2. Cov19 is likely at least 50 plus times as fatal. ( 5.0 percent vs 1/10 of one percent.)
      3. Flu is pre-existent globally. Cov19 started about two months ago in patient one, in about 2 square feet of space.
      4. Over centuries the population has developed a natural immunity to many flu viruses, there is likely zero immunity to this.
      5. Cov19 is cause to a far higher percentage of the infected going to the hospital, and staying in the hospital far longer. (Cov19 quickly overwhelms hospitals decreasing ER care for all emergency medical needs.)
      6. Nations, seeing the economic destruction of China, are very likely to be willfully disingenuous about the real number of cases and deaths.

      Treat Cov19 like the flu, and global panic from deaths and over-run hospitals will do far more damage then quarantines and travel restrictions, not to mention millions more dead.

      150

  • #
    It's the End of the World... Again

    People die from complications from Corona-viruses every year. There seems to be some general confusion that this is an influenza, but it’s not that serious. Influenza floors healthy people within hours and is a very serious virus. This is the cold you get every year that takes 2 weeks to shake off – obviously it’s a bit more virile than usual. If you’re unlucky it will get into your lungs, and if you’re already unwell or frail it could kill you. Don’t panic.

    32

    • #
      Analitik

      Saying it more than once doesn’t make it true

      50

    • #
      Konrad

      How many “two week colds” kill younger people with no preexisting conditions via cytokine cascade just like the 1918 flu?

      This is the equivalent of the 1918 outbreak and we must act accordingly.

      If you think the mortality rate in the west is low, that is only because our modern hospitals are not overloaded yet. As they become overwhelmed, the mortality rate will rise to match the rate of those who get seriously ill, which will be over 10%.

      The only thing that can stop this happening is our politicians changing course, which they are currently refusing to do.

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    joseph

    Here’s an observation mentioned on a podcast I was listening to yesterday . . . .

    SARS . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2004
    AVIAN . . . . . . . . . . . . 2008
    SWINE . . . . . . . . . . . . 2010
    MERS . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2012
    EBOLA . . . . . . . . . . . . 2014
    ZIKA . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2016
    EBOLA . . . . . . . . . . . . 2018
    CORONA . . . . . . . . . . 2020

    Common denominator ?
    All election years!

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    • #

      Election where? West Africa 2014,18? Middles east 2012? East Asia 2008?

      41

      • #
        joseph

        The U.S.A.

        And not insisting has any real significance, but interesting, if the dates are accurate . . . . .

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        • #

          you mean you posted the dates without checking?

          And you ignore the obvious disconnect I was trying to point out between the region affected and the place you were nominating as election years.

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            Sceptical Sam

            GA, the dates are accurate, for the USA.

            Don’t forget the Mid-term elections.

            https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_elections_in_the_United_States

            It doesn’t mean anything, but the dates are accurate.

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            • #

              not for the diseases though

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              • #
                joseph

                Gee Aye,

                The source had the information sent to him and he said he had checked the dates and they were correct, I would have stood corrected. So what are the dates you have for the diseases? I would welcome the correction and I’d send it along to the source as well.

                30

              • #
                joseph

                I didn’t imagine you would think the dates might be related to dates of elections in those countries. I did imagine he had checked the dates to determine the correlation with the outbreaks since he’s an American, what else would he be checking. Seems an honest individual, but maybe he’s not. And most people can make mistakes . . . . I’m sure he’d like to be shown he’s made a mistake, if he has.

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              • #

                which makes you posting this without even thinking about it doubly reprehensible.

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    • #
      yarpos

      interesting alignment with Olympic years also, but probably about as meaningful as CO2 and “global” temperature

      30

  • #
    RickWill

    Given Australia’s dependence on China and tourism for export income, the coronavirus is shaping up to being far more severe economically in Australia than the GFC. Australia pulled out of the GFC very quickly on the back of increase in exports to China.

    China will need to get back up to normal output very quickly for Australia to avoid a severe recession. I expect the first quarter GDP will be down due to bushfires plus the coronavirus impacts. Although I noted ABC have requested additional funds of $5M annually to cover the inevitable increase in bushfires due to climate change – may be a recommendation from the Royal Commission (if we cannot limit catastrophic fires we can at least get some news footage from them.)

    Iron ore price back up to USD87.10.

    50

  • #
    TedM

    I started stocking up in dribs and drabs about three weeks ago. No sudden pressure on the outlets. Now I’m filling in the gaps to be sure that I’m not left wanting. I have the capacity to self isolate, and have been asked by a close friend if he and his children can isolate with me if that is necessary, and proves to be practical, so I’ve been thinking of more than just myself.

    I’m in a position where I can shoot, trap catch, for protein. I need to do all this because I am in the high risk category.

    I would encourage all who visit this blog to start applying strict hygiene practices now, insist all members of your family do the same. You are simply trying to make these practices a habit before the pandemic reaches you.

    Prepare for the worst and you won’t be caught short, and if it’s not that bad, then you have lost nothing. However if it does get bad, maybe you will save not just your own life, but perhaps someone elses.

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    • #
      TedM

      Just another point of hygiene. When you flush the toilet there are micro drops produced. They can get onto the toilet seat or the surfaces in the toilet or maybe you. As this covid19 is also transmitted through faeces, it’s a good idea to make sure that the toilet lid is down when you flush, and to be on the safe side to disinfect the toilet seat. Educate your kids, they will be using toilets at school.

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  • #
    David Maddison

    How many days of food and other supplies do you think it is appropriate to stockpile?

    I’ve already noticed hand sanitizer out of stock everywhere plus now supermarkets are very low on toilet paper.

    40

    • #

      ditch the sanitizer.

      24

      • #
        Kalm Keith

        Hi GA,

        Curious about that comment. Do you think it’s overdone?

        KK

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        • #
          TedM

          Not at all KK.

          20

        • #
          Kalm Keith

          Hi GA,
          Having seen the obsession with hand cleansing, I acknowledge the importance, but am concerned that it may be misleading people.

          The most important rules are:
          wash hands after the toilet and wash hands before eating.

          When you wash is important.

          KK

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          • #

            agree. Sanitizers can kill on contact but they don’t remove a microbial load. Wash long and wash often and do your best to keep your hands away from your face or off your food.

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            • #
              Kalm Keith

              Thanks.
              Now there’s another question.
              Microbial load?

              Does that suggest that sanitiser use leaves something behind?

              KK

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              • #

                they don’t clean in the same way. You could put a shed load of it on and scrub away and that would work like proper hand washing but still not as effective or deeply acting as soap and water.

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              • #
                Kalm Keith

                OK.

                20

              • #
                Greg Cavanagh

                I’m no expert; but I’ll bet that sanitisers are good for germs, not for viruses.
                So washing in soapy water is as good as it’s going to get.

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              Peter C

              Gee,

              . Sanitizers can kill on contact but they don’t remove a microbial load. ….they don’t clean in the same way. You could put a shed load of it on and scrub away and that would work like proper hand washing but still not as effective or deeply acting as soap and water.

              Do you actually know anything about this?

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          • #
            Greg in NZ

            Keith, my job is very sociable:

            meeting/geeting, opening doors, driving vehicles, etc.

            My first rule (for years) is Wash Hands BEFORE Going To The Toilet… so far so good!

            30

    • #
      David A

      Hi David M. I am shooting for 90 plus days. It us all food I can eat anyway. In addition it 7s good to be neighbourly if needed, and I have kids in the county.

      30

      • #
        TedM

        “In addition it 7s (is my added) good to be neighbourly if needed.” Planned for that too David A.

        30

    • #
      David A

      Hi David M. I am shooting for 90 plus days. It is all food I can eat anyway. In addition it 7s good to be neighbourly if needed, and I have kids in the county.

      10

    • #
      yarpos

      Number of days depends on your situation and ability to complement store bought stuff (grow/hunt)

      We have 30 days very conservatively. We always had some reserves due to bushfire risk, but extended it in recent weeks. That was mainly based on family experience in the aftermath of fires in Batemans Bay, but Corona added motivation) We are lucky enough to have other options in the grow/hunt category should the war drag on.

      30

    • #
      TedM

      Hard one to answer David. I’d suggest an absolute minimum of two weeks but in reality a minimum of a month. I’m planning to be able to survive for 3 months if that’s what it takes. I’m also organising a winter vegetable garden, so with some dried vegetables and the garden I should be able to maintain a healthy diet. I’m also carrying a bit more than just what I require in case I need to help someone else who is running short.

      If you have family they should be enough motivation to make you take this seriously.

      By the way hand sanitiser will be back on the shelves once the first rush is over, and unlike GA, I would recommend it

      10

      • #
        Bill In Oz

        Yes Summer is finished here inthe Adelaide Hills
        It’s cold at night
        So yes it’s time to do the Autumn garden
        And spend less time online !

        10

  • #
    Bill In Oz

    Hong kong Research Study:
    Flushing the loo with the toilet seat up
    Leads to contaminated aerosol droplets in the air !
    This was done before the Corona virus epidemic started.
    But even more applicable with it present.

    https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/health-environment/article/3050502/coronavirus-hong-kong-study-shows-pathogens-can

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  • #

    I don’t want the toilet paper buyers to fear being mocked. I wont mock you. Please explain what is your reasoning for buying so much? Are you prioritising or is this just the last thing on your list?

    While we are at it. Why do people leave the tap running while brushing teeth? I can’t figure out why that is always one of the water saving measures listed by authorities. Do people really turn on the tap and just let it flow for a minute before finally rinsing the brush? Am I missing out on something important?

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    Crakar24

    My father lives in Geelong, his friend was supposed to have a stent put in his heart but the hospital cancelled because they are expecting s large influx of virus patients.

    This is the direct result of the inaction by our inept government.

    This I’d just the beginning

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    • #
      PeterS

      Not just our government. All are inept and most are a lot worse. We are one of the first countries to place some restrictions on who comes from where. Most countries haven’t even started. It might be too late but all travel should be stopped now unless there is definite proof one is free of the virus.

      20

      • #
        Sceptical Sam

        May I suggest, if you haven’t already done so, you write to your local Federal MP asking why Italy and South Korea have not been included on the shut-out list?

        60

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        yarpos

        Its a bit like Jaws, where the Mayor in the bad jackets is always saying you cant close the beach!!

        50

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    Crakar24

    One lady in the shops was saying we should deport all Chinese people because they are the ones who catch it and spread it the uneducated rubbish and racism did not stop there.

    When governments fail to lead they create a vacuum this vacuum is fought over by others (woke left/social Influencer’s etc). The result is people buying lots of toilet paper…..

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    • #
      Bill In Oz

      I am not a racist.
      But i suspect that many Australians are going to become very anti- Iranian
      In the near future.
      Courtesy of Corona Virus 19
      And our slack federal government stupidity !

      30

      • #
        robert rosicka

        Bit of that is already going on Bill , place I shop at every couple of weeks have Iranian owners great people and one of the best doctors I’ve ever seen was Iranian.

        30

    • #
      yarpos

      and what style of leadership would stop that kind of low IQ nonsense?

      seriously , and you have the benefit of hindsight, what would good leadership in this situation look like?

      30

  • #
    WXcycles

    By Dr. John Campbell, UK epidemiologist, puts the potential cases and mortality into perspective, not good for many countries.

    Global isolation and containment (21 mins)
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cJRJ7qc6Af8

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    Bill In Oz

    China is quarantining travellers
    Arriving from Italy, South Korea etc
    For 14 days !
    To stop the disease being ‘reintroduced’
    Meanwhile our mob of officials & ministers
    Welcome travellers from this same countries
    Without any restrictions !
    Such is the idiocy of our leaders !

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-51718614

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  • #
    Russell

    And not much epidemiological breakdown of deaths to help analyze the risks.
    Here I am wondering if cigarette smoking might be a contributory factor.
    But of course the government would not want people to stop smoking.
    That would put all that excise tax at risk.

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      Graeme No.3

      Also the temperature (winter in all those countries with bad figures), air pollution? Unlikely in Italy but may be a factor in China and Iran.
      Population density?
      Re the last, we will soon know, as we have some very dense people in Canberra (and Melbourne) and assorted universities.

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    toorightmate

    The Turnbull family uses a lot of toilet paper.
    They are all full of sh*t.

    61

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    Springdam

    Stocking up on food is using common sense. But don’t forget fuel and gas bottle/S. Maintainance fitters and truckies are all open to catch this virus and we know how low our fuel reserves are in Adelaide. Still working on my partner to allow the mobile butcher to come on the farm.

    60

  • #
    Lance

    Well, Jo is apparently more correct than a lot of spokespeople seem to be.

    “World health officials say the mortality rate for COVID-19 is 3.4% globally, higher than previous estimates of about 2%.”

    https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/03/who-says-coronavirus-death-rate-is-3point4percent-globally-higher-than-previously-thought.html

    Not a welcome bit of information, but it is what it is.

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    • #

      Yes. I’ll post soon. That matches my estimate yesterday of countries outside China, (and not including S Korea and Italy and Iran either). I didn’t want to put that out there last night. Am still trying to think of reasons why it’s too high.

      Explains the mayhem in China. 1 in 30. wow.

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    • #
      David A

      I am very concerned that it is low. one cannot do deaths vs total infected in a nearly exponential growth virus with two weeks from symptoms to death.
      Sorry, but that is just wrong. The flu mortality is based on resolved cases, either fatal or cured.

      30

  • #
    LightningCamel

    Where I live, country town, 15k people, the fascination with dunny rolls is well to the fore but masks are rare and the frequency has not changed noticeably.

    I have posted before on the idea that the horse has bolted on travel bans and I’m not going to go there again but, if we were to attempt such a thing, could it be made to work?

    At the present time people from Italy are travelling just about anywhere, many people are traveling from Korea, Thailand is allowing all its expatriate workers in Korea to return home without quarantine which will expose tourists from all over the world, and so on. Testing and diagnosis is so far behind the geographic spread that no country can be considered a disease free area, to have any real effect, all international travel to Australia would have to cease or be quarantined. We have around four million international arrivals by air every month. Can we quarantine a continuous floating population of two million people for 14 days? Would we do that? If we were disease free and other places were not, could we enforce a quarantine? Could, or would, we stop planes arriving if other areas are in a panic?

    We know our politicians are not of the highest intelligence or moral fibre but, even if they summoned up the courage to do the things needed, would our society support them or even allow the necessary to be done? Where would our self esteem and social fabric be at the end of it all?

    I don’t have any answers to this but it needs to be thought about. I am no advocate of open borders, I think we all owe a debt to Tony Abbott, but I fear the economic, personal and social cost of attempting to cut ourselves off from the rest of the world may well rival that of the disease.

    To pick up the theme of the headline, if the present predictions for infectivity and fatality are maintained, the airlines will likely shut themselves down before too much longer. Passengers will become even more reluctant to subject themselves to the virus stew in crowded terminals and the hostile aircraft cabin environment. Simple OHS considerations will cause flight crew and cabin crew to refuse to fly or companies to cancel operations because they are unable to assure the safety of their staff and will not assume the liability. Add in the liability to passengers who claim to have been infected on the flight and it will not be long before the bean counters run for cover.

    The next few weeks are going to be interesting as in old Chinese curse interesting. There is an exponential growth in cases outside China but then the population exposed is growing exponentially as well so that statistic is not yet an indicator of doom. The growth of cases in Korea, Italy and Iran is also high but my not be entirely due to rate of spread. Increased by awareness and eliminating the testing backlog are distorting the numbers. The Feb 12th spike in China is entirely due to a backlog of cases being recognised but is still visible in the graphs. If we could trust Chinese statistics we would already have answers but unfortunately have to wait for more reliable and comparable statistics.

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    Choroin

    I’ve kept the entire underside of my bed stacked with toilet rolls for years. I could supply a Venezuelan village for a month 🙂

    They don’t date and they’re at the top of the list of things you never want to run out of in a crisis.

    Having stocked up years ago (and rotating them, ofc) I haven’t needed to add to the strain on supply chains at the point a crisis hits.

    So for all those fools saying for years that ‘preppers’ are crazy people: You’re welcome !!

    Keeping a deep pantry and having a few months worth of 25yr storable food and rice is probably the easiest and most stress saving savings account option.

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    • #
      yarpos

      My grandmother used to do the same. Whenever they were on special , they were in the cart. They were under the bed, in the top of wardrobes and in the garage.

      40

  • #
    Environment Skeptic

    Off topic….
    “Gaia’s Tim Flannery speaks…”
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SqSPT16i8wg

    20

    • #
      LightningCamel

      Oh dear! We are all going to be like ants in some superorganism of which there will be one so evolution will no longer and we will stagnate until replaced by something else entirely. I just hope Tim does not end up anywhere near the superorganism anus. He is so full of it that the rest of us will be submerged in no time.

      60

      • #
        Sceptical Sam

        Do you think he stocked up on dunny paper?

        Think of all those trees.

        50

        • #
          Environment Skeptic

          He is talking about “super organisms”, virus’s and such and is clearly ahead of his time. I should have listened a long time ago.

          We need to stock up on weather and climate info as that is also going to be in very, very short supply. Even a weather report a day in advance will be almost impossible to find.

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  • #
    Geoffrey Williams

    I asked my local plumber to fit a bidet in my bathroom.
    He told me that it’s a 6-9 month wating list.
    I said no thanks mate, I could be dead by then . .
    GeoffW

    50

  • #
    Geoffrey Williams

    I’ve just realised that with all those grounded planes perhaps Qantas could fly in some emergency toilet rolls . . .
    GeoffW

    50

  • #

    The WHO estimated in 2017 that up to 650,000 people die of respiratory diseases linked to seasonal flu each year. Since it’s a statistic, it’s a trick…but a useful trick if you know it’s a trick.

    What interests me is the speed and certainty with which the present C-virus is distinguished from many others as a cause of infection and death. It’s as phenomenal as that ultra-fast and super-portable DNA analyser they used to identify Al-Baghdadi the last time they (sort of) killed him.

    Seen the people getting sprayed by a gauntlet of Hazmated-out officials as they get off the Indonesian jet? I’ve seen more thorough drenchings at the DJs perfume counter. There may be a real epidemic at the heart of this comedy, but in an age of Novichok-cologne and whale tusk fencing on London Bridge, I won’t be buying sheds of toilet paper on the strength of what’s been reported.

    If I do feel sick I’ll pretend it’s the 1950s and go to bed.

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  • #
    Peter

    I live in Seoul, South-Korea. I follow the news on the Corona virus in Korea very closely. It is part of my job here. So I would like to mention some underlying facts and statistics to counter some fears that might arise from the Korean situation.

    Korea has indeed seen a big increase in cases. From just a few to more than 5000 in about two weeks. That sounds scary, but is it really? Of all these cases, close to 90% is in or around the city of Daegu (population of that region is 3mln). Almost all these cases can be linked to one megachurch and a funeral home where they has a service for the brother of the head of this church.

    Since the first cases appeared in this megachurch, the government has ordered all its 200,000+ members to be tested. Just over half is done now. Korea will see many more new cases, mainly in the Daegu region, for another two weeks (in my opinion).

    Of all the 5000+ cases, about 15 patients have severe problems, about 15 are in critical conditions. The condition of all other people with COVID-19 ranges from having hardly any symptoms to having a bad flu.

    Can we compare the number of cases in Korea with the number of cases in Japan? To make a good comparison, (just like with temperature/climate data) you need to look at the measurement system first. Japan and many other countries do not pro-actively test people. Only when people have some symptoms, people will be tested. As mentioned above, Korea is testing many people. In the US, you have to pay to get tested (I have seen numbers of 1400 USD); in Korea it is almost free. If I have mild symptoms, would I get tested for 1400USD in the US? In many Western European countries, people tend to tough it out without visiting a doctor when they are having flu symptoms; in Korea people tend to visit the hospital for even a small cough. So Korean people get tested a lot, others do not. In Korea the statistics will include many minor cases; statistics of other countries do not.

    Korea has seen 31 people die with the virus. Average age of the people who passed away is 70 years old. Before getting the virus, they all had a combination of pre-existing health conditions (e.g. cancer, pneumonia, high blood pressure, kidney problems, brain damage, liver disease, …). Two of the people who passed away underwent an organ transplant (meaning their immune systems were artificially weakened so the body would more easily accept the new organ) just before they caught the virus. In Korea, no healthy person has passed away due to the virus.

    There is no two (or three) week lag to death. For the people who passed away in Korea, the average time between diagnosed with COVID-19 and passing away is 2.5 days.

    So while the basic numbers seem to be scary, if you understand the underlaying data the situation is much less scary.

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    • #
      LightningCamel

      Hi Peter, thank you for that, I have been wondering how much of your new cases tally was a result of the testing regieme rather than disease progression. I also note that the count of severe/critical cases is low in Korea compared to other countries. Same cause perhaps and would you expext this number and the delay between infection and death to increase?

      30

      • #
        David A

        South Korea had exponential growth. IMV this is primary cause of the low death rate observed, plus their hospitals were not yet overwhelmed. So better medical care and lack of time for the vast majority of cases to progress to critical and death.

        Yes, the few reported deaths happened quickly, as would be expected in a small percentage of a curve, as those most vulnerable submit quickly. Again, the last two doublings account for the great majority of cases. Sorry to point out that the cured rate in South Korea is also, very low.

        May time prove my concerns unfounded.

        00

        • #
          Peter

          Dear David,
          The virus has been in Italy and Iran shorted than in Korea. Still the number deaths is much higher in those countries than in Korea. I have been wondering about the reason for the high death rate there. Any thoughts on this?
          The cure rate in Korea is also low. This is also something I wonder about. I think it has partially to do with the carefulness of the Korean medical system to release patients. I will look into this.

          10

    • #
      Analitik

      Yeah, just stay away from you infirm parents and all is good

      30

    • #
      Sinbad

      Hi Peter

      Thank you kindly for the update and on the ground info. While i agree with the gist of what you have said, my main concerns have been:

      1) severe disruptions to the global production and distribution chains which can actually be more lethal than the disease itself.

      2) The mutation risk. Let’s say the mortality rate jumps to 20%. It would completely change the equation, won’t you agree? Everyone is very sure that this will not happen. We’re talking about a pathogen that popped out nowhere a few months ago, not the laws of thermodynamics.

      3) the ICU aspect of this pandemic. I am surprised how relaxed most are in regards to this part. Jo Nova has covered this in depth so i wont’t repeat her previous detailed concerns. However, even at this continued infection and mortality rate, the ICU care could be overwhelmed. If that happens, the mortality rate will automatically change. But i have an even more serious concern since the collapse of ICU care could be synonymous with martial law. Allow me to elaborate. Once the ICU care is overwhelmed, critical patients will be simply told to go home to die. Now i know a thing or two about human nature. They tend do everything in their power to avoid the death of their loved ones including attempting to transfer them to nearest outside medical facilities. This will be futile of course since those facilities are equally overwhelmed. But people won’t care, its only natural. I am sure people have seen footage from China with special squads training to catch potential patients with nets and riot gear. Some might say ‘well, we’re not those people. Its different here’ or ‘we are made of more sturdy stuff’ or ‘we will exercise Victorian stoicism while reciting Kipling’s If’. I am sorry, people are people and stoicism is long gone as the loaded trolleys with t-paper show. And this is only after 42 confirmed cases. That is why i maintain that marital law, or curfew if that makes one feel better, is a real possibility, particularly in America due to population numbers, proliferation of firearms and the innate suspicion of government.

      Some might say ‘if the above happens, we’ll go into high gear of quickly building ICU wards’. Here is a fact, no nation on earth with the exception of America can match Chinese infrastructure building scope and rates. I think we should be realistic, even more so considering the NBN roll-out. Le’s say the giant of American industry wakes from its slumber and starts building. They will be catering to their own needs i.e. each man for himself. Even if we could build the wards, where would the equipment come from? Do we have homegrown industries making the machines and stockpiling them as strategic reserves atm or will everyone rush to the same supplier? The above is not hysteria but rational considerations and questions. As a rationalist, i have to ask them.

      The more i hear from the governments and those who minimise the risks, the more i recognise an ‘inshallah’ attitude. Let’s hope for the best, eh? ‘The summer will take care of it, it will go away in 2 months, who remembers SARS, just another flu etc’. I agree with hoping for the best and i also agree with FDR regarding fear, but are we prepared for the worst?

      Thanks once more for your contribution.

      All the best
      Sinbad

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      • #
        David A

        Hi Sinbad, I think other nations quarantine will be very different than China. My understanding is that China did not really quarantine, as quarantine is not group quarantine. That is a death trap. I have zero trust in China’s death numbers. You cannot put tens of thousands of exposed in large halls, beds next to each other, common restrooms, and not violently spread the disease.

        Hopefully most will self quarantine at home. Ok, so now those that are progressing towards fatal. Will they flee towards distant hospitals? I think you have a point. Could oxygen tanks be provided from areas less affected and new purchases? Will other distant hospitals run low on necessary medications.
        People will not flee perhaps, if there is nowhere to go.

        BTW, see my near by posts on why there is a two week to death mean, and South Korea’s rapid growth and good medical care is primary cause to their low death rate.

        I think the big population movements happen from asymptomatic people fleeing areas of disease growth. This clearly happened in China. Millionsoved to avoid China’s deadly quarantines.

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      how_are_they_testing

      Peter,
      Thanks for your report. I keep reading about all these confirmed cases. How are these people being tested? Chest xray? Antibody test? PCR test. I would love JoNova to do a post on the different tests and false positives.

      20

      • #
        Peter

        They take three samples: they take some samples from your nose and mouth, and your have to give the some saliva.

        10

    • #
      David A

      Peter, yes, in the early phase the time to death is shorter. Why? Because the most vulnerable die earliest. Notice that it is currently a low death rate in South Korea. This is because the majority of eventually fatal cases have not had time for the two week progression reported in China, and only the very pre-disposed or vulnerable quickly die.
      The time to death is a curve, with the vast majority in the two week range from symptoms, three weeks from infection. Please note the cured rate in South Korea. Now that hospitals are overwhelmed, and larger numbers of infected cases are maturing, the death rate will likely rise. The last two foublingd of an exponential are very bad once those have matured to either cured or fatal.

      20

      • #
        Peter

        Korea has a relative low rate of serious/critical cases. It is these serious/critical people who pass away with the virus. It would be good to monitor these numbers. In Korea this number is steadily growing. Not a good sign.

        00

  • #
    Bill In Oz

    Iranian woman & child flew into Adelaide on the first from Iran via Kuala Lumpur.
    Now diagnosed as sick with COVID 19.
    In isolation now
    But what about all the people she travelled with
    And has mixed with since arriving back in Adelaide.

    YOU SHUT THE BLOODY BORDER TOO BLOODY LATE MORRISON & MURPHY !

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  • #
    robert rosicka

    2nd death from the virus confirmed in Australia, an aged care worker who was infected has infected some of the elderly at a nursing home and this is a real worry .

    20

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      robert rosicka

      Sorry Bill forgot to say which news I seen it on but you’ve found it , although it seems they aren’t 100% sure on cause of death .

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    Sunni Bakchat

    Are we perhaps overreacting a little here? Quantity and quality of testing has been very poor. Partly due to asymptomatic nature of illness in early stages.

    The greatest social media con yet?

    Extract from The New England Journal of Medicine authored by Fauci, Lane and Redfield.

    https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMe2002387?query=RP

    “On the basis of a case definition requiring a diagnosis of pneumonia, the currently reported case fatality rate is approximately 2%.4 In another article in the Journal, Guan et al.5 report mortality of 1.4% among 1099 patients with laboratory-confirmed Covid-19; these patients had a wide spectrum of disease severity.

    If one assumes that the number of asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic cases is several times as high as the number of reported cases, the case fatality rate may be considerably less than 1%. This suggests that the overall clinical consequences of Covid-19 may ultimately be more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza (which has a case fatality rate of approximately 0.1%).”

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      David A

      That only increases the R0. We are fairly certain that deaths in China are vastly under reported, and that many who died of this had a different cause of death recorded.

      Do for every 100 cases missed, there could also be 5 deaths falsely assigned to pnemonia or other causes. Many nations are doing poor testing. I think time will tell.

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    GlenAustralia

    Morrison & the Govt were in a catch-22 “damned if you do, damned if you don’t” situation.

    If they HAD OF closed the border to Asia & Iran/M.E. they would have been called “R.a.c.i.s.t.s” OR “I.s.l.m.a.o.p.h.o.b.e.s” — DAMNED IF THEY DID

    If they DIDNT close the border to Asia & Iran/M.E. they would get blamed for anyone here catching COVID19 — DAMNED IF THEY DON’T

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      Bill In Oz

      They were elected by us
      To govern for us.
      All the rest is BS

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      what a strange thing to write.

      WE DON’T HAVE BORDERS (oh sorry you gave me mad caps disease) to those places so, unless we quickly win some wars, we can’t control those borders. Asia is a continent not a country in case you are wondering.

      What has the Middle East got to do with anything?

      Seek help Glen.

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        Deplorable Lord Kek

        “we can’t control those borders”

        We don’t have to.

        We control our borders (or are supposed to, a country with no borders is not a country).

        By not closing THAT border in a timely fashion the ‘government’ has put the population at risk.

        That is Glen’s very plain meaning.

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        WXcycles

        Gee Aye, Australia has a territory and border control force with capacity to close access to Australia on the basis of emerging circumstances. The Government does have a capacity to close entry from countries in Asia as has recently been done.

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        yarpos

        the faux pedantic questions dont wash, you know full well what he means

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        Peter Fitzroy

        I did answer your question on the previous thread – just add 6-2 hours for it to pass moderation

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    DonS

    Hi Jo

    I just crawled out from under my bed to peer over the ramparts of the fortress of toilet paper I’ve built (that’s what you do with it all isn’t it?) to find not much change in the last few days.

    Jo you made a crack 🙂 about the low IQ of those people buying up all the toilet paper but actually they may be taking advantage of an opportunity to make a buck. Manufacturing in China has been pretty much shutdown for about 8 weeks now and so shortages of things like toilet paper may be making people willing to pay high prices for these commodities. Remember how people made money out of buying up milk powder and baby formula and shipping it off to China a few years ago, some supermarkets still keep their milk powder locked up to stop people clearing the shelves, this looks like the same thing. Will be interesting to see if the courier companies are haveing an upturn in number of bulky packages addressed to China.

    On a more serious note it will be interesting to see how this virus plays out. Will it burn out and disappear after the Southern hemisphere winter or will it re appear in the next Northern winter? Hopefully it will disappear or decline in potency but I recall the Spanish flu first appeared in the Northern winter of 1917/18 as a normal flu but by the time it came around again in 1918/19 it was way more dangerous. Who knows what will happen with this one after a year of interacting with people, pigs, horses etc. Hopefully nothing but maybe…. we will have something to really panic about.

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    Deplorable Lord Kek

    people obviously have not calculated that when they buy only toilet paper and no food, they will not need toilet paper.

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      Popular delusions ‘n madness of crowds.:)

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        Deplorable Lord Kek

        “Popular delusions ‘n madness of crowds”

        at least two more entries for Mackay’s book:

        -Klimate-omania: The Story of the World’s Most Over Hyped Weather Events and the Extraordinary Passions It Aroused

        -The Great Toilet Paper Bubble of 2020.

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          Yes, DLK. re Klimate-omania,take this passage from Mackay’s book on Witch Mania and substitute CO2 for witches and you get a match…

          ‘An epidemic terror seized upon the nations; no man thought himself secure, either in his person or possessions, from the machinations of the devil and his agents. Every calamity that befell him, he attributed to a witch. If a storm arose and blew down his barn, it was witchcraft; if his cattle died of a murrain – if disease fastened upon his limbs, or death entered suddenly and snatched a beloved face from his hearth – they were not visitations of Providence, but the works of some neighbouring hag, whose wretchedness or insanity caused the ignorant to raise their finger, and point at her as a witch. The word was upon everybody’s tongue – France, Italy, Germany, England, Scotland, and the far North, successively ran mad upon this subject, and for a long series of years, furnished their tribunals with so many trials for witchcraft that other crimes were seldom or never spoken of.’

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      LightningCamel

      Very true o wise one. As the great sage once said, if you don’t eat you don’t excrete and if you don’t excrete your maker you meet.

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    Deplorable Lord Kek

    Off topic.

    In case anyone missed it, Matthias Corman today declared that white cars are racist.

    I suppose this might explain why the ‘government’ is intent on selling all our milk and dairy farms to china.

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    My good lady wife had a follow up visit at Redlands Hospital following on from her major bout with Pneumonia in July of last year, and at the time, it was touch and go for two weeks.

    She still has problems, and we are not looking forward to the coming Winter, as the cold is definitely not as good for her as the warmth of those warmer Months.

    After a long consultation with the Specialist when all the bases were covered, I asked the Specialist if there was anything I needed to be worried about with respect to her lung conditions, the cold, and the possibility of COVID-19.

    Keep in mind that this was a respiratory and pulmonary specialist.

    He smiled at me, and said that what is happening now has more to do with panic than anything else.

    He was most reassuring as he added that what we most needed to be doing is to ….. live our lives as pretty much as normal as we can.

    I was somewhat conflicted, thinking he may be saying that so as not to worry us unduly, but on later reflection, why would he even say it like that at all, when he could have added that we just be cautious in all we do, but he added NO risers at all.

    I can understand something like that from perhaps an average person with no real knowledge about it, but this was a Pulmonary and Respiratory Specialist.

    I’ll still be very [email protected] cautious, but I feel a lot better now than I did yesterday.

    Tony.

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      OriginalSteve

      Maybe he has 2 years supply of food and meds at home, and relevant self defence devices as needed…..

      Doesn’t sit well with me at all….sorry…..

      Id still continue with what ever prepping your doing.

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      PeterS

      He sounded a lot like what a politician would say. Perhaps he just didn’t want to make you worry too much. I like you would have preferred the truth.

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      Kalm Keith

      Thanks for sharing that Tony.

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    Judge Dredd

    In good news, by the time the flu season hits Australia in July, the general population will be sick of the fake fear campaign and we can all get back to the newest fear brand to be sold to us.
    My guess is that since this campaign has worked so well so far it will be tried again in 2022 when most people have forgotten about this one.
    The only thing to fear is God Himself.

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      el gordo

      July should be the peak, then we can all get back to worrying about mass extinction.

      ‘The growing fear of a coronavirus pandemic appears to have quickly motivated Australian health authorities and governments into immediate and appropriate action.

      ‘By comparison, the anxiety around global warming and potential mass extinction seems muted.’

      Geoff Dawson/ABC

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      TedM

      I’m waiting to see you post back here in 3 months time JD. Please don’t forget, and one of us will be able to say I told you so.

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    Bill In Oz

    Well if Singapore can do it
    Why can’t Australia ?
    Only because we have dumbnut leadership !

    “Singapore said Tuesday it will bar all new visitors with recent travel history to Iran, northern Italy or South Korea within the last 14 days.”
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/coronavirus-update-live-fed-delivers-emergency-rate-cut-as-global-infections-pass-90-000-20200304-p546ld.html

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      yarpos

      not sure how you verify a travel history to northern Italy or even Italy the way the EU works once you are inside, unless they fess up of course

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    Bill In Oz

    Vietnam has apparently stopped the virus
    Via it’s lockdown processes

    Ummmmm ?

    Also Vietnam is not allowing visitors from South Korea, Italy or Iran ( and of course China )

    Curious that the Vietnamese government can get this right while we still wait for our ditherers to get their act into gear !

    And curious that I found this out via Al Jazeera ! Not a whisper from the media here in Oz even though we have a huge Vietnamese migrant community.

    https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/02/infected-patients-vietnam-cured-coronavirus-miracle-200228035007608.html

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      Kalm Keith

      “Vietnam has apparently stopped the virus
      Via it’s lockdown processes”.

      And that may actually be true, but no journalist would say anything to contradict the government there. Especially when the reported cases found and fixed were in the North.

      Most hotel staff wear face masks, washing hands is emphasized.

      With an estimated 8,500 plus road deaths last year, corona must be seen in proportion.

      KK

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    Bill In Oz

    We get to hear or read of Iranians coming here infected with the virus.
    But hardly any of the media have published anything about what it is like in Iran
    With the epidemic raging.

    Except……
    To my surprise..
    The Guardian
    Here : https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/03/an-absolute-disaster-iran-struggles-as-coronavirus-spreads

    Things are very bad there.Courtesy of it’s theocratic government. No wonder any Iranians with permanent residence here in Australia were flying in !

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    TdeF

    It is fascinating to consider what will happen if flights stop. And cruise ships. Do we really need more and more aircraft and cruise ships?

    Who will suffer? What if people holiday at home, tour via the internet, spend their money at home and business really looks hard at why they bother flying. It happened after 911. I was in Cleveland two years later and we were the only people catching a taxi. One taxi took us where we had to go and asked to come back and pick us up. It was the only fare for the day.

    That does not mean business stopped, but the travel business stopped. And would Venice be worse off without 30 million tourists a year? Italians are a lot of the traffic too and they drive or catch trains, but it’s as if all of Italy visited in just two years.

    Las Vegas, as city of 0.6 million people has 42 million visitors per year! That’s one and half Australias. I thought most drove from LA but no longer. Are there really enough planes to bring in 0.8Million people a week, 114,000 people a day. 600 planes you would think but the actual number is 490 planes per day. Staggering numbers of people fly to a city which does nothing but entertain guests. At least you can blow up huge hotels and rebuild every few years. Most of the hotels I visited in the 1980s and 1990s for conventions are gone now.

    However I think some of the greatest historical treasures of the planet are being totally destroyed by mass airborne and cruise ship borne tourism. Is that a good thing? While it’s a huge industry, it is a major source of infection for everyone, completely unprecedented. It needs to be reviewed.

    Stopping unnecessary aircraft travel may force a rationalization of resources in many countries. It is not necessarily a bad thing.

    After all, we are told every day we have to stop flying, by Climate Change spruikers who fly incessantly and often unnecessarily. Barbra Streisand flew her three dogs to catch her show in London and home again, while berating people about flying. And the late Pachauri, head of the IPCC, flew 360,000 miles a year to preach against flying. That’s 1,000 miles a day, every day.

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      TdeF

      And what sort of education needs hundreds of thousands of Chinese students to study term at a time at our schools and universities in Australia? Of course it is a pull through for immigration, not education. The education industry has exploded, when in fact a lot of it is f*ke. It’s an ill wind.

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        TdeF

        And I think it is time that ancient places have limits and quotas. Like Venice, Bruges, Paris, London, a lot of Italy. If even half of China wants to go to Venice just once in a lifetime, that’s 10 million Chinese tourists a year into Venice, or 30,000 a day. All wanting to get into the Doge’s palace. You see this now in Paris and St. Petersburg.

        The population of China and India now equals the world population of 1900. Our biggest problem is not Climate Change, even if it were true.

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      yarpos

      I used to work for a US multinational and travel only stopped for a couple of months after 9/11. I was only a flight to Europe that November on my moving over flight. Travel to other than the US resumed surprisingly quickly.

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    Kalm Keith

    To offer something different that might give the corona thing a bit of perspective.

    How many people worldwide have died from Cov19?

    Vietnam, a country of over 90 million people, lost almost four and a half thousand people last year in road accidents.

    And that was only the first six months.

    Their road toll is much more of an issue than COVID19 appears to be so far.

    KK

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      yarpos

      Those sorts of stats will be intersting after the dust settles. I know the Euro heatwave in 2003 was treated as apocalyptic and had many thousands of deaths blamed on it. Later when they looked at the stats the death rates in the affected countries remained on trend. Deaths got time shifted but in the overall sense there was no dramatic change.

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    Philip

    Apologies for the repeated posting: something went wrong!

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    Kratoklastes

    Up to 1 million people could be

    That’s language worthy of a Demtel or CopperArt ad, or Scott Morrison trying to squirm out of a question about why the AFP never interviewed anybody involved when thy decided to stop investigating Angus Taylor’s criminal fabrication of documents.

    Up to 1 million… means anywhere between ZERO and 1 million. Bet on a number closer to zero.

    could be … very specifically not will be. I could be a millionaire by 8:45 tonight.. but for the fact that I never put a ticket on.

    People in Australia aren’t dim enough to fall for the ‘up to’ malarkey: we know that ‘up to 40% off’ means “there will be one item that’s 40% off: everything else will have had its ticket price increased the day before the ad was shown, then decreased the day after.

    .

    While I would be a happy chappie if covid2019 was set to reduce the number of mouth-breathers. this corona-nonsense is posting Amateur Hour numbers.

    Almost three months in, with 1.3 billion people in he crosshairs, covid2019 has infected ~100k Chinese and killed a couple of thousand. Sad for their families, but it’s not Black Death or the 1918 flu that the US military brought to the battlefields of Europe.

    In another month, there will be an eerie, almost embarrassed silence about this in the media and from global health authoritarians. They will be crossing their fingers, cashing their augmented paychecks, and hoping that the Great Unwashed forget that they were the victims of a scam perpetrated by the Fat Controllers.

    (They – the corrupt swindlers currently trying to foment panic – will be fine: the average person is an innumerate imbecile with a memory that lasts roughly the length of an episode of MAFS or GoggleBox).

    .

    On more important matters: for those in Rural’n’Reejnal Straya… guess which politician was a key decisionmaker for the $380 million dished out for the “Mobile Network regional blackspot” program?

    If you guessed “The recently disgraced former Minister for Handing Tax Money to Target Coalition Electorates“, well played.

    If not: you should not be allowed to vote.

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