JoNova

A science presenter, writer, speaker & former TV host; author of The Skeptic's Handbook (over 200,000 copies distributed & available in 15 languages).


Handbooks


Advertising


Australian Speakers Agency



GoldNerds

The nerds have the numbers on precious metals investments on the ASX



The Skeptics Handbook

Think it has been debunked? See here.

The Skeptics Handbook II

Climate Money Paper



Archives

Coronavirus War Room Time — Mortality rate 1-3%. Hello?

In a word: bum.

WHO announced their estimates of 3.4% global mortality today. All the caveats apply — it includes rubbery-figures-from-China and comes from the Useless UN and a group headed by a star apologist-for-Xi. But here’s the thing, look at the numbers outside China (see the big table below), and its a similar ballpark. Sorry to rant on about this virus.

The World Health Organization had said last week that the mortality rate of COVID-19 can differ, ranging from 0.7% to up to 4%, depending on the quality of the health-care system where it’s treated.

Don’t look now: Big Numbers Coming. Assuming 60% of people catch it before some treatment appears, a death rate of 0.7% – 4% means bad news for some furry number from 100,000 to 600,000 Australians. Double that for the UK. And 1.4m – 8m in the United States. There is a wide range of mortality rates, which may reflect that there are two kinds of mortality rates here — one where people get great ICU care, and one where hospitals are overrun and they don’t. We’ll probably pin that to the low end if we keep cases limited, we eat well, don’t smoke, don’t have wild pollution, and hopefully we’ll get better and better at treating it. But even the low end numbers here are Not Nice. What this means is mass disruption to keep those numbers down — schools closing, factories stopping, no parties, delay the Olympics, etc etc.

The long lag is a bomb. It can be five weeks from infection to death and bureaucrats are weeks behind the virus.

Train meets hospitals

Let’s look at the Worldometer daily numbers, to get an idea of how many cases from 2 weeks ago have died, and how many cases from 8 days ago have got into breathing difficulty rates as “severe”. The data is starting to accumulate (unfortunately).

Hunting for good news, on the Diamond Princess, numbers are not so awful: based on 691 cases eight days ago, five percent are now classed as severe and the mortality rate of 454 patients two weeks later is only 1% (assuming all the deaths are correctly recorded there by Worldometer, and the severe cases stay on the “severe” list if they get well, which they might not). The Diamond Princess would be an older demographic too — so these numbers suggest that mortality is at the lower end of the WHO range. Maybe even “only 0.5%”. Clutch at good straws and hold on to that thought.

Looking across lots of countries (but not China, Korea, Italy or Iran) and based on 867 cases that were known just over two weeks ago, the mortality rate is a daunting 3.7%, and based on 1334 cases eight days ago, the rate of progression of all known cases to severe is 7%. If correct (and they may not be) these are the kind of numbers that would freak a hospital manager out. These don’t come from China, South Korea, Iran and Italy — all of which clearly have a lot more cases that they didn’t know about two weeks ago. So, see the table below, this is data from nations like Japan, USA, Hong Kong, Germany, France and the UK. They’re rough, not always taken at the same time of day, they may double-count Diamond Princess deaths (in national tally’s and boat tallies — any one know?) Feel free to point out mistakes.

These numbers are a train wreck for hospitals, even at the lower end. State Ministers in Australia got briefed recently and appear to understand that now as they they tend to be using the phrase “we may not have the resources”. Translated, that’s the code for “not enough hospital beds”. They’ve already warned people with symptoms to stay home. How fast we shift from chartered rescue flights and individual attention to “just call us, and stay in bed”. A few weeks is a long time in an unfolding pandemic.

Governments have been consistently two weeks behind this virus.

Everything they’ve done would have been so much more effective if they did it two weeks before they did. Now is the time to leap up and get ahead. Look at where South Korea and Italy are now, and just do it. We’re going to have to do it soon anyhow.

Peak Hour cometh

Modeling in Western Australia suggests the viral load here will rise in a few weeks, peak in August and settle down in Spring.The timing is about as bad as possible for us.

Ro epidemiology exponential curve, Graph. Coronavirus potential spread.

The curve we want to flatten. The Ro, Reproductive curves of infectious diseases. ResearchGate

It doesn’t have to be that way. No cases confirmed yet in WA (apart from the Diamond Princess cases). Thousands of deaths are coming, and don’t forget mass disruption to schools, uni, businesses, factories and elective surgery. All that in the offing and no one wants to cancel some holidays and flights to slow the train down? Are we so addicted to weekends in Bali and interstate footy trips that it’s unthinkable to just say “hang ten for a few weeks?”

WA’s chief medical officer Andrew Robertson said an outbreak in the state was now “probably inevitable”. “There are measures that could help delay it, certainly some of the border measures, [plus] self isolation and possibly quarantine if needed,” he said.

“And we will continue to try and contain this disease. But we accept that we have to prepare for the next stage and make sure that our systems are best prepared for the likely pandemic.” Many non-emergency elective surgeries are expected to be cancelled and doctors and nurses working desk jobs may be redeployed to treat patients on busy hospital wards. — ABC News

‘We may not have the resources’: Minister

If there are no nice wildcard surprises coming (new antiviral, lucky break, freak discovery) —  the aim of the game is to flatten the curve, slow the exponential growth and keep as many people as possible uninfected and out of hospital. That means no more unnecessary flights, no mass events, close the schools, do church online, get people to work from home if they can and do mass hygiene lessons for our nations.

Everyone needs to know how to wash hands seriously well, and not touch the tap or the handle in a way that undoes the point of washing in the first place. Did you leave those germs on the doorknob on the way in, and collect them again on your way out?

 

The have-cake eat-cake experts. When will the media pin them down?

Meanwhile last night the experts were still saying there was no evidence of community transmission in Australia and simultaneously that there was no need to stop the flights to Italy or South Korea. Go figure. If there is no community transmission, it’s not too late to stop the flights. If there is community transmission– then stop telling people not to wear masks, keep shaking hands, going to parties and the football. It can’t be both ways.

When community transmission is obvious and undeniable they’ll say “we expected this”.

Don’t let them get away with their double-speak.

Scott Morrison is choosing to let the virus fly in, can someone tell him these are not the deaths we have to have?

Scott Morrison almost got a hard question on the ABC last night. But he weaseled out of it — just following the expert advice, he said. No, dear leader. Do your own research. Ask some different experts. Ask some different questions. People’s live depend on you. Please send him the message (and tell Boris, Jacinta, Justin, and DJT too).

Given the gravity, we should call a halt to all flights without a two week quarantine (not pretend quarantine loopholes through Dubai, Thailand and Bali). Do it  just for a few weeks til we get more data. Winter is coming downunder. The best way to avoid this virus is to minimize trips, shopping and crowds. Start thinking about the long run.

 Amazing: LA Times finds a WHO expert who makes sense:

Mike Ryan, who runs the agency’s [WHO] emergencies program, pushed back against officials who wanted to “wave the white flag” and surrender to the disease’s hold. China took drastic steps to fight the virus, he said, and case numbers are now on the decline there.

Countries such as China and South Korea “implemented very, very strong measures that have affected their own economies and their own societies,” Ryan said. “It’s really a duty of others to use the time that has been bought. “That is not a reverse you can achieve with influenza. If that is a failure, we’ll have slowed down the virus.”

There can be a big benefit in slowing the virus’ arrival in a country for a few months, Ryan said. Many countries, including the U.S, are in the middle of flu season, so large numbers of coronavirus cases would overwhelm the health system.

 Too many in the deep state are waving the white flag.

04-Mar  
Country, Total New Total New Active Total Serious, % “severe” cases 8 days ago Lagged % severe cases 14 days Lagged death rate
Other Cases Cases Deaths Deaths Cases Recovered Critical 24-Feb 18-Feb
Diamond Princess 706 6 600 100 36 5% 691 5% 454 1%
Japan 293 6 244 43 23 160 14% 66 9%
France 212 4 196 12 8 4% 12 67% 12 33%
Germany 203 187 16 2 1% 16 13% 16 0%
Spain 165 1 162 2 3 2% 3 100% 2 50%
USA 124 9 106 9 7 6% 53 13% 15 60%
Singapore 110 32 78 7 6% 90 8% 77 0%
Hong Kong 101 2 62 37 6 6% 81 7% 61 3%
Switzerland 58 56 2 0% 3 0%
Kuwait 56 56 0% 8 0%
U.K. 51 43 8 0% 13 0% 9 0%
Bahrain 49 49 0% 8 0%
Thailand 43 1 12 30 1 2% 37 3% 35 3%
Taiwan 42 1 29 12 0% 31 0% 22 5%
Australia 39 1 17 21 1 3% 22 5% 15 7%
Malaysia 36 14 22 0% 22 0% 22 0%
Canada 33 3 26 7 0% 11 0 8 0%
Norway 33 33 0%
Iraq 32 32 0% 5 0%
Sweden 30 29 1 0% 1 0%
U.A.E. 27 22 5 2 7% 13 15% 9 0%
Austria 24 24 2 0%
Netherlands 23 23 1 16 6% 16 0%
Vietnam 16 0 16 0% 16 0% 16 0%
Iceland 14 13 1 0%
Belgium 13 12 1 0% 2 12% 1 0%
Lebanon 13 13 0% 1 0%
Israel 12 11 1
Oman 12 10 2 2 11%
San Marino 10 1 9 1 1 100% 1 100%
Macao 10 1 9 10 8% 10 0%
Denmark 10 10
Croatia 9 9 1 0%
Algeria 8 8 0%
Qatar 8 8
Ecuador 7 7 1 3 33%
Finland 7 6 1
Greece 7 7
Total 2646 3 32 2178 436 99 4% 1334 7% 867 0.037

UPDATE:

LATEST TALLY OF THE BIGGIES Worldometer

Country,
Other
Total
Cases
New
Cases
Total
Deaths
New
Deaths
Active
Cases
Total
Recovered
Serious,
Critical
China 80,282 +131 2,981 +38 27,301 50,000 6,416
S. Korea 5,621 +435 34 +2 5,546 41 27
Iran 2,922 +586 92 +15 2,278 552
Italy 2,502 79 2,263 160 229
Diamond Princess 706 6 600 100 36
Japan 319 +26 6 270 43 29
Germany 244 +41 228 16 2
France 212 4 196 12 10
Spain 193 +28 1 190 2 3
USA 128 +4 9 110 9 8

 

8.9 out of 10 based on 64 ratings

220 comments to Coronavirus War Room Time — Mortality rate 1-3%. Hello?

  • #
    John

    What is the illness like for the average sufferer? What are the symptoms? How severe?

    40

    • #
      TdeF

      From what I have read I expect it is similar to MERS, SARS and the rest. Extreme respiratory distress, breathing difficulties which in turn can produce heart failure. And viral pneumonia symptoms. And real lung damage. In a sense no different from the rest, except the body has greater difficulty producing working antibodies and a delayed overreaction can be as bad again, as with the Spanish Flu.

      The difference with this one is the long incubation period without symptoms, which explains its escape and the lack of reaction from administrators and health officials. Anything like 4% fatality rate is an absolute disaster by anyone’s standards. The difference today is that we can create an innoculation. That is the race and the Israeli government says they are three months away, based on current work they were doing on avian flu viruses.

      Then perhaps there is a need for fast viral identification as we get to know better how to treat patients for maximum survival rates.
      This is just the start of a new human race, against viruses.

      150

    • #

      Big variation. Some people don’t even know they are sick. Some get flu symptoms. Dry coughs and fever with aches is common.

      90% will recover at home. Some of them would keep working. (But shouldn’t)

      220

      • #
        Bill In Oz

        ‘Cause they will infect fellow workers
        & Colleagues.

        60

      • #
        PeterS

        The “soldier on” attitude for any disease or sickness let alone for the virus should be strongly discouraged if not outlawed. It’s as important as stopping flights.

        120

      • #
        Leo G

        Some people don’t even know they are sick”

        Possibly because they are not sick. Rapid diagnostic tests for virus infections have moderate specificity to reduce the number of false negatives, and consequently have high false-positive results. For instance the tests used to detect influenza infection, Rapid antigen diagnostic tests (RIDTs), can have false positive rates up to 95% ( as a proportion of total positives), particularly if virus prevalence is low in the early stages of an epidemic.

        41

        • #
          David A

          Yet with this virus we have heard of many false negatives, and apparently the viral load is heavy early.

          70

          • #
            Leo G

            Indeed. The false results, positive or negative, suggest that there may be problems with the detection tests. Of course, patients with laboured breathing, pneumonia etc are likely to be confirmed cases on account of the symptoms, regardless of test results.

            20

            • #
              David A

              Yes, I read the specific pathology of pneumonia associated with this virus. It is quite specific on both positives and negatives, and apparently 98 percent accurate, considerably better then the standard test. (I heard that China began to use this the case load shot up, and they quickly reversed using this as a test. As a cat scan comes back quickly ( no need to wait 1 to 3 days for the CDC to process) I wander why others nations are not using this?

              10

      • #
        Rolf

        I was told a story this morning of a man, 36 years old in Shunzhen, China. He was hospitalized and got better. Reported as cured and moved to a hospital. Still under ‘quarantine’. Talking to his wife every day on phone. But not allowed to get out. Six days later, he had difficulties when talking to his wife and had to stop. Later the same day he was gone. Question is, what happened at that hotel ? Presumable it was (is ?), full of people infected waiting for release. So he got reinfected or is it the Chinese way just to write people off when they know nothing can be done ? I guess we are on our way to find out. in the meantime take a look at this short video from CBS News.
        http://www.cbsnews.com/news/coronavirus-infection-outbreak-worldwide-virus-expert-warning-today-2020-03-02/

        40

        • #
        • #

          Rolf, most people don’t suffer too much in the first days. Day five is when breathing difficulties start in <20%. Day 8 is when in China 3% need ICU. If he needed a ventilator, but they didn't have one, I guess "it's over".

          This is why I'm following the rate-to-severity outside China, and more specifically (selfishly) looking for any signs that there are different rates among different ethnic groups and cultures (still don't know, but not looking that promising). Hoping for Africa's sake that they are less likely to follow the same track as Asians. I would hope people in medical policy units were looking closely, but for PC reasons, no one seems to be discussing it. There will be different Ro (rate of spread) in different groups but may also be different rates of severity. If we knew for example that some medical workers were at lower risk of getting the Bad Version that would be very helpful. As it is, I think we need to train young ICU docs and nurses pronto.

          The oddest one are the people falling in the streets. There are movies of this on twitter in both China and HK and Iran. I've not heard any good explanation or reporting on their outcomes either.

          60

          • #
            Rolf

            There is information about tissue damage to kidneys, liver and heart. (Beside lungs). If so there is probably damage on other places as well. Could be cause of sudden death. Need that to be confirmed though. I think studies are on the way.

            Maybe people need to take it easy some time after recovering and let body take time to heal before going back to normal again.

            20

      • #
        Bob-l

        Don’t wanna sound like a broken record but inflamed throats and lungs from cold weather give the virus a foothold and cold environments allows the virus to survive outside the body for a long time. Jo wouldn’t making our electricity affordable so that pensioners don’t need to sleep with the dog (was it the greens that suggested that) to keep warm work wonders to keep serious cases low?

        The excessive price of electricity due to green crap is going to make this impossible to contain over winter. Warm houses would reduce contagion because most people contact occurs indoors.

        70

        • #

          100% agree. Though we don’t even know yet if cold and dry is better or cold and humid. Yes, influenza rates increase with each degree room temp is lower than 18C I think.

          50

      • #
    • #
      RickWill

      What is the illness like for the average sufferer? What are the symptoms? How severe?

      Recent news is that basketball player Liz Cambage has probably survived corona virus. She was hospitalised in December in China before the league was cancelled.

      Australian basketball star Liz Cambage says she survived coronavirus before the world knew what it was – as she reveals she was left wheelchair-bound in a Chinese hospital

      https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/australia/australian-basketball-star-liz-cambage-says-she-survived-coronavirus-before-the-world-knew-what-it-was-as-she-reveals-she-was-left-wheelchair-bound-in-a-chinese-hospital/ar-BB10JPeF?li=AAgfYrC

      If the virus can send a world class athlete to hospital it is a reasonable bet that older people, not in peak condition, are less likely to recover; particularly if they cannot get into intensive care.

      90

      • #
        yarpos

        Quite so, if that is what she had

        40

      • #
        Lewis Buckingham

        Peak elite athletes are usually immune suppressed because of the stress of pushing their bodies. She probably ended up with a post viral fatigue syndrome, hence the wheelchair.

        60

        • #
          Geoffrey Williams

          Quite so. You only need to look at some top athletes, they are often drawn and pale. Their bodies are over stressed and more prone to infections.
          GeoffW

          40

    • #
      TedM

      one of the side effects is death. Fortunately only occurs between 0.5% to 7% (take your pick) of infected individuals.

      10

  • #
    Chris

    Hi Jo,

    I may be a bit tired but I don’s see Iran on the chart above.

    Chris

    40

    • #

      Have we heard anything new about Iran from Sinbad?

      Tony.

      60

    • #
      Bill In Oz

      Chris, Jo has excluded China, South Korea, Italy & Iran from the table.
      I suspect Jo will be following up with these big 4
      Where Community transmission has been happening for a while.

      60

    • #

      Chris. Added the “Biggies” latest numbers to the bottom. Yes, Bill is right. They are not much use for working out mortality rates at this stage. We don’t know how many cases there were 2 weeks ago.

      Of the Biggies Singapore looks like the star pick at the moment. Though I am still amazed cases didn’t increase in Macao or HK much either. Can it be real that Thailand and Vietnam don’t have many? Numbers are still statistically small…

      130

      • #
        Bill In Oz

        The Philippines is also still small Jo.
        A few imported cases resolved with one death.
        There are good private hospitals there
        But the public hospitals are pretty primitive.
        So I doubt that this low infection rate & single mortality
        is related to a good health care system.
        I am becoming more confident that
        Sunlight on the skin = more vitamin D3 = better immune system.
        = Less people sick.

        80

        • #
          FarmerDoug2

          I’ll go for
          Sunlight ( UV) on surfaces = dead bugs.

          70

          • #

            from experience you need a lot of high intensity UV for it to be important.

            The usual things that affect biomolecules -because a virus is just helpless protein and nucleotides when in the environment – are the same as what affect food preservation.

            Water= hydrolysis
            Temperature = more rapid chemical reactions
            air = oxidation
            light of various wavelengths = chemical degredation.

            the first three are the most important. Keep your food free of excess moisture, cool, airtight and dark.

            To the food scientists out there – this is a simplification e.g. water = bio-available water

            40

            • #
              Bill In Oz

              Vitamin D3 is available online
              At good high doses !

              50

            • #
              Konrad

              Actually UV-C (200 -280 mn) is highly effective as a sterilizing agent.

              Even better, new UV LEDs can produce a narrow wavelength around 275 mn that doesn’t produce ozone like the old mercury vapour lamps.

              Just a few seconds of UV-C >1w/cm2 can kill most viruses and microbes. It is used in water sterilization but also in air filtration systems. UV LED sterilization is increasingly being used in baby bottle sterilization products.

              It is likely we will see active UV LED sterilization of HEPA filters emerge during this virus outbreak. Probably also battery powered wristbands to illuminate your silver impregnated gloves …

              50

              • #
                Gee aye

                I’m a regular user of biohazard cabinets so I know uv. The topic was the environment. I don’t see this as relevant to the majority of surfaces with the potential to transfer the virus

                10

              • #
                Peter C

                That’s is because you have a limited imagination.

                Konrad was referring to UV LEDs, which could be installed anywhere according to need. That could become a very important defence against the spread of the virus.

                30

              • #

                nonsense. That would cost the gdp of california just to do california

                00

      • #
        Spetzer86

        Vietnam appeared to be on corona very quickly. A couple of weeks ago there were reports of them shutting down town suspected of having cases. Here’s a recent article:

        60

      • #
        Roger Knights

        Maybe warm, tropical countries are less susceptible to the virus. That’s the contention of the poster of an 8-minute video, in the last minute or two of which he says that the WuFlu can’t spread in a warm climate or to tropical countries, and so it will fizzle out in a couple of months and the market will rebound. (Just sayin’)

        https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_mkP_mDVfg8

        30

      • #
        David A

        Curiously, the mortality rates based on resolved numbers, cured vs fatal, ( as the flu statistics are done) for the biggies, and the ROW, are very similar, despite how many more cases are resolved in China.

        R.O.W. 7.4 percent
        Biggies. 6.4 percent

        Well, we will see. I think Jo is correct in that all the numbers are questionable, and many are a result of how that nation is testing.

        40

      • #
        Lewis Buckingham

        The Philippines closed its borders with China to prevent Chinese returning to the Philippines after the Chinese New Year. They had flak from China but stuck to their guns.

        70

  • #

    I have made a note that Korea was at the same place as the UK two weeks ago last sunday with some 31 cases. They now have 5300 cases and some 38 deaths. So all being well I will monitor the situation and see where the UK is in some two weeks time. To date the rise in daily cases has been modest but presumably at some point we should expect an exponential rise. We shall see.

    I thought the photo in the last thread of people panic buying toilet tissue was disgraceful
    Sensible stocking of essentials over time is sensible and prudent but the supermarket infrastructure can’t keep up with that type of mass buying and surely they ought to introduce some controls on their customers?

    110

    • #
      TdeF

      I haven’t heard an explanation for the run on toilet paper? Face masks, hand lotion, bottled drinks, dried food maybe, but toilet paper? If I was a prepper, that is possibly the last thing on the list of necessities and needs explanation. I have no idea.

      80

      • #

        News a few weeks back had shortages of toilet paper rolls in Hong Kong. I think it’s just the legend of “what preppers forget”. But Australians didn’t start with beans, fish, soup and pasta, they just went for the toilet paper.

        170

        • #
          TdeF

          So they read the headlines of a toilet paper shortage? Credible but amazing. As a professional friend said, he doesn’t have time to read the articles. It’s how leftist newspapers push stories, misleading headlines.

          81

        • #
          yarpos

          Some Australians, unless we have started to beleive the MSM represents what all Australians think and do

          40

        • #
          Peter C

          But Australians didn’t start with beans, fish, soup and pasta, they just went for the toilet paper.

          Thanks to you Jo I went off to get a few extra supplies a week ago.

          I had tinned tuna, rice, pasta, spam, soup etc on the list. But the ladies in the house said; “Don’t forget toilet paper“. I assumed they know what is important so I bought three packs on special.

          I do hope that supplies are restored overnight because our supermarkets were stripped bare of toilet paper today. It would be upsetting if the household ran out.

          I suppose we could get by somehow. Toilet paper was unknown until recently.

          20

      • #
        truth

        We’re told by government that we could be facing a situation where offices… schools…daycare etc are closed…many people sick…many about to be.
        In that situation would you like to have to spend time in supermarkets…if they were open?

        You’d want to be at home looking after your family wouldn’t you?

        With all the family at home ..wouldn’t you rather have stocked up on at least a bit more toilet paper than normal…and food and medications as well…so no family member has to go to a crowded place at least in the first few weeks until we see if the government really does have things in hand…or would it be better to be cool now for the look of it …and then just try to deal with the misery of shortages on top of everything else if/when it happens?

        There’ll be enough misery without running out of toilet paper and medications… if family members even have the regular flu…let alone corona virus.

        Some supermarkets were too slow in placing limits …but I think buying ahead a few weeks is entirely sensible.

        110

        • #
          Binny Pegler

          A few weeks yes, but a few years?!!!

          40

          • #
            truth

            Binny…

            There will always be some people who’ll go over the top on anything…that’s not general panic…just a few people going over the top.

            Supermarket managers could very soon see what was happening…they should have put ‘per shopper’limits on purchases earlier …but they have done so now.

            ‘A few years’ is something no one knows how to handle.

            In our illustrious MSM, this particular instance has turned into a panic about a panic….just another opportunity for the airhead hacks to deride ordinary thinking Australians.

            70

        • #

          Truth.
          Don’t misread me. I started stocking up weeks ago. My surprise is that people want so much toilet paper and are not also buying a balanced mix of tinned fish, soup, butter, lard, cheese, Eggs, etc.

          70

          • #
            Chad

            …Lard..??
            Is that really a critical necessity ?

            10

            • #

              In terms of fridge space, Lard is hard to beat for sheer longevity, density, and calories. Coconut oil is better for most people since it doesn’t need refrigeration and is stable at room temp and has a low smoking point, and is arguably quite a lot healthier. (But it has more letters so lard won for a late night quick answer). Olive oil is great but don’t cook in it.

              Coconut oil has some salicylates and if people are sensitive to them then it’s not 1st pick for them.

              Lard = 9000 cals per kg.
              Coconut oil = 8,600 per L

              To put this in perspective a family of four needs around 6000 – 9000 cals a day, or 200,000 – 270,000 cals for a month. Unless you want to live off high carb rice, some high fat food is useful. (1kg = 3650 cals, so thats 54kg- 73kg per month for a family of four assuming no other food source, which is a pretty silly type of diet, but for arguments sake….)

              80

              • #
                truth

                I always thought lard was a bad fat but I was wrong apparently.

                I saw an expert recommending it the other day… because it’s low in saturated fats and high in mono-unsaturated fats.

                Who would have thought that!

                30

              • #

                should that be “but has a low smoking point”? Low smoking point is not great for cooking with – or at least you need to be aware of it and keep things cooler.

                Coconut oil can substitute for diesel too if you live in warmer climates.

                40

              • #

                sorry Jo… will pull myself up on that- refined coconut oils are high smoke point but to my knowledge not a common product in places where coconut is a staple.

                40

              • #
                Kalm Keith

                hdl _ ldl

                You need balance of both.

                10

              • #
                Power Grab

                My secret motto is “Cholesterol is your friend.”

                The most natural way to get vitamin D is by the action of sunlight on the cholesterol in your skin.

                So that makes lard look very beneficial. It’s not only a potent source of calories, but it also helps your body make vitamin D (if you can get some sunlight on your skin).

                Since vitamin D is a known mood elevator, that could be an important way to keep your immune system functioning properly.

                40

              • #
                Kalm Keith

                Read the old book; The Queen of Fats.

                High density lipides have been denigrated unjustly.

                KK

                00

          • #
            truth

            Jo…

            I’m not critical of you in any way at all…would never ever include you in my MSM rants.

            I’m just thankful that you’re doing all this real time research…that I know must be really tiring …mind-bogglingly so…so that all the rest of us know what’s going on….and that includes on climate change.

            I really appreciate it and I’m sure others here and OS do too.

            100

        • #
          Ted O'Brien.

          I decided to do my bit of panic by buying an extra 2kg of rice. I haven’t yet worked out why toilet paper has mostly gone, but was able to get enough for usual usage.

          20

          • #
            Ted O'Brien.

            And as I chose a lettuce and some tomatoes from the bulk shelves in the supermarket I thought: If this bug is about this is a good way to catch it.

            Maybe supermarkets need to package all their products.

            Should we cook everything we eat to a certain temp for a certain time?

            20

      • #
        PeterS

        Madness of crowds causing panics – a human condition.

        50

        • #
          OriginalSteve

          Speaking of silly……St. Greta attacking The EU pretending to deal with a pretend situation.

          Oh the irony ++

          https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-05/eu-is-pretending-to-tackle-climate-crisis-thunberg-says/12027674

          “Climate activist Greta Thunberg has accused European Union governments and institutions of only “pretending” to urgently tackle the climate crisis.

          “EU leaders say they are spearheading some of the most ambitious climate change policies in the world, and on Wednesday the bloc’s executive unveiled a planned climate law to reduce net greenhouse gas emissions to zero by 2050.

          30

      • #
        yarpos

        So, if your are confined to your house, how would you prefer to deal with running out of toilet paper? Draw on stocks? A sheet of A4, socks and hankchiefs? Grass? the govt will provide?

        51

        • #
          MudCrab

          Shower straight after flushing.

          You are home in isolation. You can spend most of the day in a dressing gown and just nude up before you ‘sit down to think’.

          Although… bugger, I have just started a panic buy on body wash!

          50

        • #
          Chad

          Ask an ex SAS survival specialist how they do it.
          Hint….you may have to start by carefully shaving some different areas !!

          30

        • #
          Neil Crafter

          You just put in an online order with Woolies or Coles and they will deliver to your door.

          10

  • #
    cedarhill

    While one is conjecturing, it’s 100% likely everyone has been exposed because:

    Wuhan is oneof three manufacturing, industrial and transportation hubs of China. Look at any airline flight guide to count the number of direct, non-stop flights from Wuhan’s airport to Sydney, New York City, Los Angeles, London, Paris, Rome, Dubai – even Moscow. Then pick your date as to when the virus emerged with suspect no. 1 in Wuhan. I pick Oct 31, 2019 because (a) some say China delayed the Dec date and (b) it’s Halloween which seems fitting concerning all things scary. Then apply your favorite assumptions as to transmission rate, apply any math progression you like, and you arrive at 100% exposure.

    So what to do? For 100% of the population, do the things to strengthen you immune system (non-inflammatory nutritious whole food diet with good nutrition), exercise a bit, get adequate sleep, reduce stress and at least make some attempt at hygeine. Then go find a copy of Kipling’s “IF” and read it. After all, even Jack Welsh (GE) couldn’t avoid become frail, falling and meeting the reaper…One should just simply try to avoid a premature death since we live in, truly, a world of micro filth with dust every where, staph everywhere, strep everywhere, fungus spores everywhere and then there’s the gazillion viruses.

    If one is community minded, encourage the gov folks to some how attempt to protect the ones that are highly at risk of premature death — the 200,000 bed Australian extended care industry, the hospitals, etc., since they are the perfect killing grounds for all respiratory contagions. Even then, within 18 months (US average) a current resident at a nursing home will join Jack Welsh with or without the Wuhan.

    101

    • #

      And 100% no evidence to suggest we’ve been exposed. C’mon …”some say”?

      But yes, eat well. sleep well. Get fit. Take D K Zn. Se.

      110

      • #
        cedarhill

        Conjecture. Just like assuming 60%… One can conjecture?

        Regardless. I’ve not found any clinical trials of any population where the current quarantine policies practices have actual numbers as to the type and transmission rates. Having read them, all one could possible say is that if you have symptoms and if you are tested then maybe you should stay home or be checked in to a hospital (where, in a virus created weakened condition, you can be exposed to everything from staph to parvo and worse).

        What activists, public health, governments should focus on are which group(s) get the first vaccines since it will be in limited supply. You don’t see this now because fear, hysteria and panic are the order of the day.

        Oh, and do check how many DAILY international flights there are to the major world air hubs. Before Pan Am died a quiet day, we used to discuss how to respond to things like the WuHan and mostly concluded without 100% testing of all travelers and near daily testing of terminal side employees, it was a near useless since there was then (and true today) there was no method to discover a contagious person with few or no symptoms. We could think of no way but perhaps folks can now.

        51

        • #
          Bill In Oz

          Cederhill, I think you are denying the bleeding obvious !
          If you have actual links to evidence challenging what Jo is saying here
          It’s time for you to present them.
          Nothing would give me more relief and joy !
          But in all my own research on thisI have not found any such evidence at all.

          10

          • #
            Environment Skeptic

            Bill, virus’s cannot be contained.

            Only one particle of virus gets through the net and we are all back to square one. That is what is “bleedingly obvious”.

            20

        • #

          cedarhill — I don’t understand — you obviously know testing flight passengers is little help, so the only solution is proper two week quarantine.

          I too would like quarantine studies, but look at the rate among Diamond PRincess passengers once they got off the ship into proper quarantine. In two weeks on board a poor quarantine infections went from a few to 700 out of 3700, then abruptly declined once they were properly separated. A few more tested positive then the rate stopped.

          60

          • #
            Peter C

            I have wondered, more than once, if the sequestration of passengers in cabins on board the Diamond Princess helped spread the disease.

            Now it seems that droplet spread is likely. Feeding people in the large cafeteria, where food is kept hot until served might have been better than bringing it to the cabins on cold plates.

            Also every food area on a cruise ship has hand sanitiser at the entrance, but not in the cabins.

            30

      • #
        John M

        JoNova,
        There’s no question It’s a plague.

        My wife looked in my eyes and asked, is it the end.

        The obvious answer is No!

        Logical mitigation and a bit of hygiene is desired!

        One infected soul walked in Grand Central Station yesterday. The outcome here is yet to be determined.

        I suspect this is all about our healthcare practices and not about plague.

        100

        • #
          John M

          JO,
          Please focus on the logical positive aspects.

          You’re seeing this mess backwards.

          Focus Please!

          63

          • #
            Bill In Oz

            Focus on the positives !
            And they are ?
            Please tell us John M !
            The only one I can think of is
            Maybe fewer elderly old farts like me to bug you !

            41

            • #
              John M

              The positive aspects are family, friends, neighborhoods, community, cities, states/provinces, regions, etc.

              If you hope to save the world, it starts at home. Then save your neighborhood.

              How do you define your neighborhood?

              I did a survey in the late ’70s and it was one of the questions. Responses included my apartment building hallway to the world.

              In the worst of times we come together.

              20

          • #
            Environment Skeptic

            Generating hysteria will come to zero.

            We can’t contain the virus. A single virus will get past and travel bans and so on will come to zero net benefit in the long run.

            We need to focus on the positive ways. Government should be ensuring super nutrition among the elderly and children. A healthy body is the best defense.

            Trying to contain a virus is a bit delusional IMO. Cannot be done.

            42

            • #
              Environment Skeptic

              Totally futile.

              12

              • #

                Rate needing hospitalization = 7%.

                Rate needing ICU? = 3%?

                ICU Beds per capita = 1:12,000 or 0.008% of pop.

                Once 400,000 people are infected in Australia our ICU units will be completely full with 100% Coronavirus.

                So assume through some miracle we normally have only a 50% ICU occupation during peak flu season that means when 200,000 in Australia are infected we are at full capacity. That means we MUST keep the number of total infections below 0.8% of the whole population.

                We will have to close schools, factories, workplaces, cordon off towns.

                Assume this whole time we allow normal flights from countries regardless of whether they have good containment. Our ICU beds will have to deal with the extra load of sick foreign patients (who both brought it in, or caught it while here) PLUS each infected foreigner may trigger a chain which means quarantining a whole suburd or town with all those added cases that need to go to the ICU.

                So tell me where I’m wrong. If there is no natural immunity then it’s safe to estimate a 60% infection (“attack rate”) — reality could be 80%.

                Is it cheaper to stop flights now and not close schools, work, concerts sport factories, or to allow flights and risk overwhelming our hospitals? Remembering that even with an ICU the decision to allow the virus will kill some people.

                And the aim is not to cut Australia off forever — just for a month til we get good data, and then decide again. Build quarantine camps. Still allow trade. Still allow return to Australia with 2 week real quarantine. If we avoid mass infection til Spring by then there will be some treatments, it will spread slower, our hospitals will have more available beds, the virus may have mutated to a nicer version.

                See American Samoa which caught Spanish flu in the end but no one died because the virus was less nasty by the time to came around.

                80

              • #
                Sceptical Sam

                Jo asks:

                So tell me where I’m wrong.

                You’re not wrong. You’re correct.

                What a pity the Federal Minister for (Ill)Health, the Hon. Greg Hunt, MP, doesn’t read this blog – or some of the flunkies in his office or in his Department.

                And, I notice the Environmental Skeptic hasn’t responded.

                30

            • #
              Bill In Oz

              Check out ‘virus load’ ES !
              I suggest that almost everybody’s immune system can deal with ONE virus
              But an attack by thousands ?

              Quarantine works by working on that simple fact.

              Of course you are very welcome to prove me wrong
              By going & exposing yourself to one Corona 19 virus.

              30

            • #
              John M

              You’re right!

              But don’t count on politicians to deliver anything logical.

              Millions commute in and out of NYC daily.

              “The center can’t hold” but we can.

              I completely agree with JoNovas statistics, the issues are now up to us.

              30

            • #
              Kalm Keith

              It will spread everywhere.

              The only thing to aim for is to slow that spread.

              KK

              40

        • #
          TedM

          ” bit of hygiene is desired!” Just how a big a bit of hygiene would you suggest John M?

          I would suggest being fastidious. Not just for your own sake but also for those around you.

          40

          • #
            John M

            Completely agree with you.

            If you’re not a factory worker, tetecommute from home.

            If you are a soul who needs to show up daily, wash your hands with soap a lot , don’t shake hands, cough or sneeze into your arm sleeve not your hands, and use common sense!

            Any questions?

            20

    • #

      cedarhill… live well in whatever world you reside

      13

      • #
        Environment Skeptic

        Gee Aye…we live in a world where virus’s cannot be contained.

        Nobody is god in that respect. It’s baked into the cake.

        31

  • #
    TdeF

    Australia has great advantages. It is an island. And it is vast. And warm. Our winters are not nearly as bad as in the rest of the world where 60% of people live above the tropic of Cancer.

    Even our sprawling large cities, Sydney and Melbourne are two of the physically largest lowest density cities in the world. Our trains do not carry 11 million people a day as in Moscow. Our cities do not have super crowded old areas. Distribution works very well with many roads in and good water supply. We can close up the country and isolate.

    And we can telecommute as we are not a manufacturing country at all. Services. And our coal and iron ore should keep going, which is our real strength, not education and tourism.

    Shanghai with its 37 million people has thousands of 20 storey buildings in blocks of 200, grids of 10 x 20 in a circle 20km out. And it is only one of a hundred mega cities.

    America also is very distributed with 80% of people in the countryside, not in the cities of Los Angeles, Atlanta, Chicago, New York.

    It will vary greatly from country to country but awareness is the key. Russia is very distributed but people by necessity have to live in apartment blocks and cities are small.

    However the greatest hope is to stall infection and stop importing it and hope for an innoculation as soon as possible.

    This is something we already know about from the now regular flu seasons which follow the Northern hemisphere with new corona viruses, adenoviruses and rhinoviruses sweeping from overseas as their virus season ends and ours starts with the onset of a moist winter, perfect for virus survival. In fact if the planes stop or slow and isolation is mandatory, we may have one of the least disastrous flu seasons in the last twenty years. Many lives will be saved. History will show the development of the previously unthinkable one to two week overseas family trip was key to virus transmission.

    The real question is one of rate of progress of the virus, putting a brake on the movements of people from the Northern Hemisphere to our shores, for whatever reason. Clearly a 14 day incubation isolation is far too short. It needs 40 days, the old quarantine. There was a reason it was 40 days, learned from hard experience.

    140

    • #
      TdeF

      And a lot of countries will be closing their borders. The left of politics and the capitalists want illegal migrants. The first to get more votes and seize power and the second for cheap exploitable labour. There is a growing revolt in Britain, the US, Greece, Poland, Hungary and many more countries while the extreme left and the capitalists cooperate to force people like Italy’s Salvini and Australia’s Abbott out of power. This virus will force a new look at uncontrolled migration and not before time. These are not Climate refugees, as claimed. And they are the most likely bearers of health problems into the cities of Western Europe and America. At lot of things will have to change. And perhaps not before time.

      140

      • #
        TdeF

        And we are an army of small businesses. Over 60% of people work in businesses of 1-5 people. Plumbers, car repair, electricians, bakers, shop keepers, even IT consultancies, newsagencies and many more. We do not even have the franchises which dominate, so not the conventions. In contrast a small business in the US is defined as 500 people. What that means is that outside the public service, health and teaching, we do not gather or travel in crowds or by public transport, even in cities. And very few live in multi storey apartments, despite their soaring development in Melbourne for richer Chinese migrants largely.

        I just wish people would self isolate for quarantine, 40 days not two weeks. Two weeks has becomes obviously not enough and this is failing.

        Anyway, while we worry about ourselves, whatever the problems to come, spare a thought for people in China and the vertical crowded megacities like Mexico and Sao Paolo and the crowded cities and subways of China, Japan, Korea. They must be terrified and the pandemic will be accompanied by panic. And Australians are panic buying toilet paper?

        80

        • #
          yarpos

          Its amazing that the still quote 14 days isolation when it has been shown to fail multiple times. I guess they just repear whatever the UH WHO dictates.

          30

          • #

            A 14 day quarantine may still prevent 99% of further infections, perhaps more. Seems very useful to me!

            Perhaps just stop people from attending churches, mass gatherings or schools for the next two weeks after quarantine.

            60

  • #
    Sceptical Sam

    So Andrew Robinson, Western Australia’s Chief Medical Officer, is awake to the downside.

    Good.

    I live in Perth.

    I note that it was also announced today that:

    Three specialist coronavirus testing clinics will be opened at Perth hospitals next week as the WA Government considers reopening the mothballed Princess Margaret Hospital for Children for larger-scale testing if the virus starts to spread locally.

    Yep. They get it.

    What a pity the Federal Government’s Chief Medical Officer wasn’t as astute.

    What a pity the Federal Health Minister, the Hon Greg Hunt MP, wasn’t as astute.

    If he were, he’d have shut down flights from both Italy and South Korea by this.

    My friend James Kwan died last weekend in Charles Gairdner Hospital. His wife is critical. Yes, they were passengers on the Diamond Princess. I don’t want to see any more of my mates go that way.

    Shut the gates. Keep it out for as long as we can.

    160

  • #
    Stephen Legge

    Jo, in your Post you say “…not enough hospital beds” …very true for ICU: Admitted to Brisbane’s Princess Alexandra hospital on Tuesday, all prepped and ready Wednesday morning for heart surgery but no go, no ICU bed available so “on hold ” till afternoon, still no ICU bed available; am all prepped and ready for tomorrow morning but all depends on ICU bed being available for post-OP care. No free ICU beds in one of Brisbane’s biggest public hospitals and this was just an “average” day (no ‘flu season yet and Corona virus cases still only a (strong) possibility for the not-too-distant future – how will our hospitals cope???

    140

    • #

      Stephen so sorry to hear that. So stressful for you. So much time wasted. First of so many to come.
      Best wishes for tomorrow! Lucky you might beat the really crazy rush.,..

      80

    • #
      GlenM

      Sorry about your situation Stephen. A close relative was caught up in the same circumstances, with a shortage of beds etc. Also saw how dysfunctional the administration of the hospital was. No co-ordination and a lackadaisical staff – largely disinterested people with rings through their noses and tattooed. A small part of what I have observed in public health. This is supposed to be first world.

      100

      • #
        GlenM

        Another case of a 95 year old scheduled for an operation who required a wheelchair on arrival. I spent 3 times leading up to the date to remind them to have one available but in the event none was. No assistance – just staff in their boxes looking disinterested. It took almost an hour for this hospital to connect with an orderly for this provision.

        70

    • #
      RickWill

      Sounds tough – I expect you have been fasting with limited fluid intake ahead of the operation. That alone makes it very uncomfortable.

      60

  • #
    Springdam

    John, unable to answer your first question but google Dr. John Cammpbell he has very informative and reliable case notes on this Covid19. Jo your research is correct as usual as there is an online partition seeking the resignation of Tedros, WHO. The corruption is being recognised even by MSM.

    120

  • #
    Bill In Oz

    Thanks Jo for staying with this Corona Virus disease issue.
    Thanks for putting in the time and energy & brain power
    Into researching it and then keeping us well informed.

    I have been pondering the when ( not the if ) of my own ‘lockdown’
    And with the announcement of 2 more cases of COVID 19
    In Adelaide today, I have made my decision – tomorrow !
    Just a soft lockdown to start.

    No attendance at events with lots of people present…
    Making sure that it does not get in our door
    will involve some serious thinking for me & my lady
    About how to make sure she does not bring it home
    from the aged care center where she works.
    Nor vice versa !

    100

    • #
      truth

      I second that ‘thank you’ to Jo….must have taken a lot of effort …much appreciated.

      100

    • #
      TedM

      Pondering the same question Bill, and I don’t think that we are alone in this.

      30

    • #
      yarpos

      Doesnt bode well for the womens t20 cricket finals crowds

      30

    • #
      Bob-l

      Sometimes indigenous medicine can help, Tea Tree is antibacterial, antiviral and anti fungal. It’s OK to use as a gargle / mouthwash, particularly if you make a tea from the leaves. A drop or 2 of tea tree oil and eucalyptus oil in a vaporiser can sterilise a room but I’d advise against being in the room while you’re sterilising. This can help if you are nursing a person with a respiratory infection.

      20

  • #
  • #
  • #
    John F. Hultquist

    Various places seem to have been blind-sided (right word ?) by this virus – and are rushing to catch up.
    Being a resident of Washington State there is an instance of this at a nursing home in Kirkland (7 mi. from Seattle’s center):

    Positioned near Juanita Bay and northeast of Seattle, Washington, Life Care Center of Kirkland is the perfect choice for patients and residents seeking skilled nursing care, inpatient and outpatient rehabilitation and short-term and long-term care in a premier nursing home. Our team carefully crafts plans tailored to each patient and resident to achieve the maximum possible level of independence restoration using state-of-the-art therapy techniques and equipment . . .

    A resident of this nursing home was taken to the major regional hospital (Harborview), died, and days later the COVID-19 was indicated as the cause of death.
    Meanwhile, staff and emergency responders have been exposed. Twelve (12) Kirkland fire & rescue types are now quarantined with “flu-like” symptoms.

    There’s plenty more that could be said, but the oddest (to me) comes regarding our State’s voting ballot [we vote by mail] – due March 8. Word came yesterday, namely …
    No licking! Primary voters asked to use alternate method to seal ballot.
    “Whether healthy or sick, please don’t lick!”

    A catchy phrase for our age.

    90

  • #
    Sunni Bakchat

    A bit more perspective and less Antipodean loathing. From a Genevoise perspective, i’d suggest the WHO aren’t renowned for other than left wing impulses. They’ve waffled on in the last week about “Bridges to Peace” and “Stigmatisation” in relation to Iran and China respectively in the past week ie. what should be an entirely medical assessment is polluted with ideological sentiment and double-speak. Today, yes, they try to pin the mortality tail on the donkey. The magic number 3.4% materialises. A politically correct number as dodgy as their comments on this not being a “pandemic”. The WHO would love the Caucasian west to believe this is as big a problem for them as it is for other countries. The only thing sensible seems to be their admission the virus is not as transmissable as the flu.

    Lets look at a scenario where hygiene is taken far more seriously in the west; severely limiting transmission. Thereby freeing up hospital resource, etc. Lets also see some really hard numbers out of the west.

    Looking to social media and living in fear is a mugs game.

    101

  • #
    marcf

    Seems to me this is about a 2% problem, that is for those that live in the West 2% of infections will be fatal. That looks nearer 5% for the 60+, and neaer 10% for those over 70. The stats are awful and unreliable but younger people don’t look at such great a risk. the problem is both the denominator and numerator numbers are wholly inaccurate, not to mention the time lag.Overall 80% of people may not know they have got it, and the remaining 20% will be critical requiring possible hospital treatment. The hospitals are stuffed with old people and there will be carnage IMHO.

    There is evidence that you can catch this twice and it lowers your immune system (spliced with HIV – 3/4 papers now???. Some speculation that it will have long term effects on health and obviously it will mutate.

    It is now part of our world. Best get used to it. Choice is quarantine your economy (not possible) or live with old folks dying – no pun intended. Expect the lies to get more brazen.

    50

  • #
    DrNick

    “WHO announced their estimates if a 3.4% fatality rate today”

    No they didn’t. The quote was

    “Globally, about 3.4% of reported COVID-19 cases have died”

    Reported being the operative word. The symptoms of this thing range from nothing to death. We notice the death and serious cases alright, but require a laborious molecular biological test to detect those in the population that have anything below that level if symptoms.

    Unless you think the government is doing a miraculous job of detecting this virus in everyone who had no symptoms or minor cold-like symptoms then this is a completely unscientific statistic.

    133

  • #
    OriginalSteve

    Also eorth looking beyond the actual virus….

    Qui Bono from having countries effectively under medical marti*l law?

    Im asking the hard question no one wants to ask – what does anyone who lets this thing run rampant, have to gain?

    A global problem “requires” a global solution….allegedly.

    30

    • #
      Bill In Oz

      Just because it’s spreading globally
      Must not prevent national action to limit the disease spreading.
      It’s only at the national level that we can hold the bastards accountable
      For their timidity and stuff ups !

      I notice that Hunt & ScoMo are very quiet lately !
      While the CMO bureaucrat Murphy is front & center on the media.
      I wonder how easy it will be to move this Murphy into retirement !

      50

  • #
    OriginalSteve

    Should read

    “Also worth…”

    10

  • #
    RickWill

    A friend was relentlessly grilled by her GP’s receptionist when she rang to make an appointment. The friend did not want to discuss her medical condition with the receptionist. Eventually the questions became more direct, clearly trying to establish if she had likely been in contact with anyone with corona virus. After establishing that she had not travelled outside Australia in the last few months she was granted an appointment.

    I wonder if GP’s are legally/morally permitted to vet their patients.

    31

  • #
    RickWill

    To make matters worse with regard to shortage of toilet paper, a truck in Brisbane loaded with toilet paper caught fire destroying the load>
    https://www.9news.com.au/national/coronavirus-panic-buying-truck-carrying-toilet-paper-burns-on-gateway-bridge-brisbane/13d810a3-f25f-4462-8927-0b090e72b053

    Sorbent are now warning of a toilet paper supply shortage:
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/woolworths-puts-a-limit-on-toilet-paper-purchases-20200304-p546md.html

    Also, supermarkets have now imposed limits on the amount shoppers can buy in one visit.

    The local Coles supermarket ran out of toilet paper yesterday. My wife saw one person with a trolley load of paper towels that were possibly the chosen substitute for toilet paper.

    Plumbers have warned that “wipes” are not a suitable alternative to toilet paper because they do not break down readily and are the main cause of fatbergs in the sewer pipes.

    70

    • #
      Roger Knights

      “Plumbers have warned that “wipes” are not a suitable alternative to toilet paper because they do not break down readily and are the main cause of fatbergs in the sewer pipes.”

      The media should be publicizing this too. Many persons are completely unaware.

      50

      • #
        Bill In Oz

        Do NOT use paper towels
        In toilet bowels.
        they will block your pipes !
        Have had this happen in my home.
        Plumber job to sort it out !

        30

        • #
          OriginalSteve

          Part of the problem is that many modern loos now dont use enough water….in order to “save the planet”.

          Reminds me of in Canberra, Parliament House in the throes under a new head honcho, trying to be all trendy eco friendly, decided to stop using water in the mens urinals.

          Ok then….

          Problem is, urea and copper pipes dont play well together, and the urine fairly quickly ate through the copper fittings and created a leak of a different type up on the hill….

          Thus is the ignorance & stupidity of the eco zealots, who dont have a basic understanding f technology of any form……hence the legion of stuff ups with solar etc

          130

  • #

    That article from the LA Times really does make the most sense of the outbreak of all that I have seen. WHO expert Mike Ryan, who runs the agency’s [WHO] emergencies program is to be congratulated.

    10

  • #
    yarpos

    Raw fatality rates dont really tell you that much, without context

    Example: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-04/coronavirus-nsw-second-death-confirmed-22-cases/12023216

    30

  • #
    • #
      Bill In Oz

      After being so, so sick in China with this disease
      She thinks we are panicing ?
      Bizarre logic !
      Or simply vested interest speaking out !

      50

    • #
      yarpos

      How do we even know what she had?

      30

      • #
        Matty

        We don’t know exactly what she had, that much is clear. But before the Chinese ‘came out’ with Corona there would have been an increase in pneumonia cases. Super fit 27 y/o athlete gets flattened with pneumonia/Corona symptoms while visiting Beijing in December? We know what happened next. Prior to the virus being identified it could have “sat in the stats” for an indefinite period as it probably is now in places like Indonesia. I suppose it’s just shaking a dead rat but if Liz Cambage had the virus in December it might make Chinese numbers even more useless than we thought.

        40

      • #
        GlenM

        Some form of deprivation Syndrome perhaps. Young and fit, who can tell.

        10

  • #
    Penguinite

    Thanks Jo! Great information! Email to PM on-route!

    40

  • #
    TdeF

    The one good thing out of all this is the realization that, as in the movies about alien invasion, we humans have a common opponent, viruses.

    As most of these recent killer viruses are traceable to bats, sometimes through civet cats and pangolins, it would be great if the Chinese government could stop the consumption of these animals. The fascination of Chinese society for weird and now dangerous food is becoming lethal on a world scale.

    Consider the Japanese and the Fugu fish, the deadly blowfish. Few other people want to risk their lives with the evening meal “The intestines, ovaries and liver of fugu (or blowfish) contain a poison called tetrodotoxin, which is 1,200 times deadlier than cyanide. The toxin is so potent that a lethal dose is smaller than the head of a pin, and a single fish has enough poison to kill 30 people.” And still there are Fugu speciality restaurants.

    However new viruses do not just kill the hero or gourmet, they kill scores of millions, every year. At the very least it would be sensible to save the pangolins and stop the importation of these species and stop the sales of live bats.

    While PETA and the rest bang on about live sheep sales and horse and dog racing and the Iditarod, they seem to care nothing for live animal sales in Asia. But that’s true for Chinese CO2 as well. For some reason, only Western democracies are threatened by extremists. Exactly as with alleged man made Climate Change.

    It would be reasonable to ask the Chinese to stop the practice. For their own good, as well as ours. The timing might be good.

    111

    • #
      PeterS

      I had similar thoughts. However it would be impossible to change the dietary habits of billions of people all over the world, not just in China. Prevention is better than cure but in this situation the prevention is not practicable. Having said that, China should embark on a program to stop many in their population eating food that I honestly would not even feed to a dog.

      70

      • #
        el gordo

        They need to be educated in animal husbandry and all wet markets closed down until they clean up their act.

        20

    • #
      yarpos

      Same logic that see us ban straws and reusable shopping bags while tidal waves of plastic flow out of Asian river system. Easier virtue signalling in sight of your peers vs real work somewhere else.

      92

      • #
        TdeF

        No, straws are not dangerous. Nor are plastic shopping bags. These are completely fake, virtue signalling things, especially in the Southern Hemisphere where only 2% of the world’s population lives. We do not have a problem.

        Viruses are very dangerous, self evidently. These are not the same things, straws and viruses. I am suggesting strongly that our government, the world governments pressure China to stop a very dangerous practice. Gourmet indulgence for some is lethal for everyone. Banning the eating of (live) pangolin and bats is necessary. Or we wait for the next crossover virus.

        90

        • #
          Serp

          Or fret not, simply sit back and enjoy the ride China’s taking us on regardless of any pointless chuntering by world governments.

          10

    • #
      Meglort

      Maybe better to not allow gain of function in BSL 4 labs.

      Maybe better to not build complex global supply chains based on totalitarian regimes that conceal the truth, bribe officials and fund immense misinformation campaigns.

      Maybe better that humans lived sustainably, rather than focusing on greed, constantly.

      Maybe better that people rose above politics and differentiated fact from opinion, need from want.

      Maybe better to focus effort on improving human civilisation rather than waging war on it constantly.

      Maybe better that human rights abuses are not ignored if it makes a buck and violence is treated as a disorder rather than a right or operating principal.

      Maybe better if regimes, organisations and people are held accountable for the harm they cause to the environment and society.

      But most societies and people seem to want convenience, ignore uncomfortable facts and most of all expect others to carry the burden of their bad decision making and dishonesty.

      There are many monuments on this planet built by many successive and clearly competent civilisations that have been long erased to legend only, on all continents.

      But for those we know or can guess about, generally it comes down to war, disease and humans making poor decisions, ignoring facts and distorting reality with dogma.

      Unless things change, it would appear ours is following down that path. Maybe not today.
      However I wonder what our monuments to whatever rises up next will be when it does?

      60

  • #
    PeterS

    This is where the “rubber hits the road”. The nursing home issue provides us with a sort of test case for the governments whereby nurses with the virus but appear fine infect nursing home patients with the virus with at least one death so far. Nothing substantial is being done other than some are now being tested. Sadly it’s too late for one patient. More must be done. Governments at all levels are too slow, as usual.

    70

    • #
      yarpos

      Apart from ” do more” what do you see is the answer to the nursing home situation? In a world of finite staffing and trained people I personally dont see any magic answers. In general there won’t be as the world is only tuned for everything going right and even then we stuff up regularly.

      40

      • #
        PeterS

        Test, tests and more tests. I wouldn’t like to have a nurse infected with the virus treat my mother in a nursing home. If we are to find reasons for spending big bucks to fight this virus it would make good sense to test as many people as possible.

        70

    • #
      robert rosicka

      Just caught the back end of the ABC news on tv , I’m positive they were saying a childcare centre had kids visit this nursing home .
      Listening to Scomo’s update now .

      40

  • #
    Peter

    Are the declining infection rates in china, statistically believable ?
    Can they seriously get to 131 new cases a day across the whole of China on a base of 80,000 infections.
    If the recorded numbers are correct they would have stopped the virus dead in its tracks.

    20

  • #

    Didn’t we ‘just know’ that this was going to happen.

    The staff at the nursing home in NSW where the aged resident died after being infected by a staff member have now refused to show up for their rostered shifts.

    There’s no sense of duty any more. There’s no ‘we really care about them’ any more. There’s no ‘we’ll look after you’ any more.

    There’s the flowery brochures on standard of care waffle, and then, when there’s something like this, you’re on your own mate. It’s all just talk.

    “You’re rostered on for your normal shift”

    “I won’t be coming in.”

    “You’re sacked.” (click)

    Tony.

    133

    • #
      Matty

      Ditto. Recently been working in the disability care field and this is what I’ve been fearing. A normal winter is a challenge re rostering – this winter will be very different to any before it. With a cold you take a few days off and return when you feel up to it. Now you will need to be cleared to return to work, and obviously many will feel disinclined to show up at all. What about the poor old police? A lock-up becomes a public gathering? I think our flaky 1st world psychology is about to take a hammering. Shared disability houses need staff to run them and it’s looking very shaky, in fact I’m shuddering at the thought.

      80

    • #
      PeterS

      There’s no sense of duty any more.

      What’s that got to do with the risk of an infected nurse spreading the virus to patients who are at the most vulnerable point in their lives? Nurses need to be tested. I don’t care how much it costs. It must be done for the sake of the patients.

      90

      • #
        Matty

        They are more worried about catching it than spreading it – there is no altruism here. It’s pure self preservation. And the aged care residents will starve without the staff.

        20

        • #
          OriginalSteve

          I heard on a US Christian news service that one US state said categorically there were no CV19 cases in its state.

          Then, a nurse in one hospital in that particular state sent a ( anaonymised for privacy reasons ) screen shot of thier hospital computer system, which clearly listed 7 “hushed up” CV19 cases.

          Bottom line – cant trust govt figures.

          50

          • #
            PeterS

            As our Aged Care Royal Commission is exposing many of our nursing homes are a disgrace. Dogs are better looked after. My Chinese friend who recently resigned has told me stories that shocked me. She even went out of her way to do extra unpaid work to catch up on her duties but all she got was a kick in the backside for paying too much attention to her patients. We are such a sick society to treat our elderly so poorly.

            40

        • #
          PeterS

          No one is saying the elderly be left alone. What we need is proper testing to filter those who have the virus out of the system. Simples but then I do realise common sense and logic is rare these days.

          30

    • #
      Peter Fitzroy

      Even for this blog, this is a disturbing comment.

      What you are saying is this;
      Despite bad pay, zero hours contracts, and no job security, these workers have a duty of care?

      You are asking them to put their health at risk (and they will not get paid for sick days), or worse, for the same lousy pay and conditions.

      I know – why not ask the children who will not be attending school to make up the numbers /sarc off

      86

      • #

        So Peter Fitzroy.

        That’s fine by you then is it.

        Your response is to just dump those poor defenceless aged people in those homes to fend for themselves then, right. Just have someone suitably attired near the front door to make sure none of them get out.

        An awful lot of those old people rely on the staff for all their daily needs.

        And you wonder why those of us at Joanne’s site have no time for you.

        Tony.

        95

        • #
          Peter Fitzroy

          NO Tony, I did not say that.

          They should be compensated and trained to respond to the risk.

          At the moment they are poorly trained, and are poorly paid.

          What you are saying is that they have no rights either. I’ll put it to you – would you front up for a shift in a place which has notified that it has the virus? Or would you like a bit of protective clothing, some training etc first?

          By the way, I’ve just returned from spending the afternoon with my 94 year old father, who is in a nursing home. Apart from the receptionist, and the RN, it is rare to see the same staff week to week, as it was explained to me that it is easy to hire newstart recipients, who will do a few shifts and then leave.

          20

        • #
          Peter C

          Aged Care is a perennial problem.

          Older people fear these places for good reason. Most of them have families, so there are issues about responsibility.

          20

    • #
      Binny Pegler

      You get what you pay for. Have you been to an aged care facility lately and have a look at the staff.
      Too be fair they have family to worry about as well.

      60

  • #
    Deplorable Lord Kek

    “Too many in the deep state are waving the white flag.”

    And we know what the response will be:

    1. Government failure.
    2. Royal Commission / Investigation with government appointees and terms of reference defined by government.
    3. Report.
    4. Government ignores bits of report it does not like / are too difficult.
    5. Go back to 1.

    70

    • #
      GlenM

      Having an inquiry that defers to the fallacy of experts.Advise Government and the Civil service. Momentum? SNAFU.

      30

  • #
    Binny Pegler

    The situation in China doesn’t make sense to me. 0.005% of the population have caught the virus 0.0001% have died (mostly older and unproductive).
    Yet almost the entire economy has shut down.
    To my way of thinking either the Chinese Gov is leaving a few zeros off their figures.
    Or, given that China is a ‘Kiss up’ – Kick down’ culture.
    The initial cover up, followed by a knee jerk over reaction.
    Has triggered a mass panic.

    81

    • #

      Binny, use your exponential brain, not your linear one.

      A 3% death rate and exponential growth meant that without draconian mass quarantine China at 70k infections was 12 weeks from 300 million infections and 8.6 million deaths. With a 3% death rate that means 1 in 33 infected will die. Since it’s the old half, that means 1 in 16 die of people aged over 30. Since it’s mainly 70+ age deaths that means more like 1 in 8. With a 60% attack rate, One in every four families was going to lose a grandparent in the next year (plus some parents).

      Only psychopaths would not respond to that threat. Humans can not sit by and quietly accept a 3% death rate. The CCP is now telling people to work in some areas, but they don’t want to risk it. Many live with older parents and going to work means exposing the whole family.

      But I agree, the knee-jerk made things worse too — jamming people with colds into the same rooms as coronavirus doomed a lot of people. Presumably sealing them in to apartments did too. But the worst mistake was suppressing the news right at the start, then allowing a mass gathering party with thousands in Wuhan and then botching the quarantine allowing millions to leave.

      80

      • #
        Binny Pegler

        So you’re saying that the Chinese Gov has in fact got on top of the spread.
        What’s the chances of Western Gov using the same draconian measures?

        20

      • #
        DrNick

        “ With a 3% death rate that means 1 in 33 infected will die. ”

        Jo I think you need to take a breath. You sound like you are either panicking or going tabloid, both of which are beneath you and beneath this blog.

        Unless you believe that all minor and asymptomatic cases are accounted for in the statistics (a virtual impossibility given the effort that would be required to gather the required information) The death rate is not 3%. It is far likely to be much lower, possibly even an order of magnitude lower given that the hard to detect minor cases make up the majority of the known data.

        Take and encourage sensible precautions, yes. But don’t stoke panic by extrapolating from partial data then catastrophising about it. <— ironically my impression was that this was a core mantra of this blog up until a couple of weeks ago.

        31

        • #
          David A

          Dr Nick, regarding China you assume only mild cases go unrecorded. So you choose to ignore all the leaks, and accept the official numbers. China did not shut their economy down over 800 dead.( That what when the major quarantines kicked in throughout China) You ignore China’s mass of group quarantines of exposed people, these are death traps we know, yet in China zero such reports, no one allowed to verify, no release records of death from pnemonia to compare to other years. So yes, unrecorded cases, including many unrecorded deaths.

          See the case in South Korea of one local sect from that national church group? 2000 in one group, 83 percent very quickly infected, about 600, or 33 percent, infected but asymptomatic. ( This is strong evidence of the lack of innate immunity in the population vs the flu) So the true R.O. without the quarantines, and a death rate of over 5 percent ( minimum)
          once hospitals are overwhelmed, means you cannot treat this as a regular flu. China did what they did for a reason. South Korea has now locked down in two cities.

          10

        • #
  • #
    David Nesbit

    Jo – are there any stats / profiling on racial makeup?? I’m wondering if the virus has a worse outcome on asians as opposed to europeans?? This sort of information can often become lost in looking only at mortality rates in age groups etc…

    30

    • #

      I’m very interested if you can find any stats on that. I have not seen them. And we need to know. If say Asian doctors are more at risk, wouldn’t we want to assign them to take a different load?

      40

      • #
        Ljh

        I can’t remember the website but I saw a draft study of donated lungs, Chinese, Caucasian and African: the number of Angiotensin2 Convertase Enzyme Receptors in the two Chinese donors was about double the others in the small sample. The ACE2 Receptor is the site of invasion by the virus ie it has to get into a cell before hijacking its apparatus to make more viruses and these are more numerous in Chinese(Asians?) making them more susceptible perhaps. There is an entire class of drugs used for the management of hypertension that target this receptor. Do they affect the course of the disease? I haven’t found any studies.

        00

      • #
    • #
      LightningCamel

      I have been looking for that also without success. There is a strong secondary centre in the north of Italy, basically the Po valley and this area has the highest level of Asian immigration in Italy. The many infections in other countries which trace to Italy are tourists or identfied as “an Italian national” which is unnecessarily imprecise. Some countries (Norway for one) are going so far as to use terminology such as “linked to a known source”, avoiding even the mention of a country. There are strong Chinese connections with Iran as well but again little information on cases. You can make of that what you will but basically data is scarce. Given the political correctness in the EU it will be some time before information is available.

      In my view all that does is leave a fertile field for the nutters to work themselves into a frenzy but the government control freaks are showing their usual disdain for their subjects.

      00

  • #
    Damon

    Can someone post the age distribution of deaths?

    20

  • #
    joseph

    Panicdemic?

    41

  • #
    Steve of Cornubia

    I have stocked the cupboards with plenty of dried and tinned foods, filled up the cars, got two-months worth of my meds in the fridge and made sure the camping stove and BBQ work, and have gas (in case the lights go out). I toyed with getting a stock of bottled water, but haven’t yet. I guess I’m thinking the utilities will continue to function through anything less than a zombie apocalypse?

    I have cancelled a visit to a sports event the coming weekend and instead we’re going to stay home as much as we can. Probably not quite total isolation yet, but pretty close.

    I should add that I am in a high-risk category, being 64yo with fairly extensive heart disease.

    Meanwhile, Mrs Wife is getting anxious about her elderly mother back in Blighty. If things really take off over there, she will be really torn between the need to be there for Mum, or being here for me. I’m similarly torn, though between keeping Mum safe and not wanting my wife to risk exposure through flying, and heading into a disease hotspot (assuming Oz hasn’t caught up by then, and assuming travel will still be allowed).

    60

    • #
      John F. Hultquist

      I toyed with getting a stock of bottled water, but haven’t yet.

      Often people maintain 2 weeks to months of food. Water seems to be forgotten.
      There are stories of folks that with an approaching storm begin to fill every glass, cup and bowl they have. Even bathtubs.
      Consider 2 types of water;
      (a) drinkable, and
      (b) flushable.

      Don’t “toy” with such easy decisions.
      Think family security, and all that.

      20

    • #
      RickWill

      Water comes to you in pipes with no human contact required. Sewage treatment and water supply are high productivity services with back-up power. Australia would be in absolute chaos before losing these two services. Under that circumstance you probably need your guns loaded and at your side.

      Oil price has dropped 36% since December. Demand has dried up. Oil production and refineries are high productivity businesses. Very few hands required to keep the supply chains open. If Singapore, South Koprea and China all became basket cases it may impact adversely on supply to Australia. However demand should be outstripping supply for a long time and prices are already faling in USD terms. We are just beginning to see the fall at the bowser ($1.228/l at my nearest supplier) but it is dampened by AUD/USD exchange rate tanking. Unleaded is down at least 20c/l in Melbourne from a week ago.
      https://edition.cnn.com/2020/03/04/business/oil-prices-opec/index.html

      Oil producers are facing the biggest drop in demand for their product ever as the coronavirus spreads around the world, forcing OPEC and its allies to consider emergency measures.

      Buying fuel for me is a non-contact task; may have to think about handling the pump spout. Payment has been non-contact for years now.

      With people hunkering down, it is a reasonable bet that long life food supplies are skyrocketing in price while fresh food supplies are going to the tip. The supermarkets may see a much increased demand for their delivery service.

      40

      • #
        WXcycles

        If Singapore, South Koprea and China all became basket cases it may impact adversely on supply to Australia. However demand should be outstripping supply for a long time …

        This would probably be the best way outside of a SEA conflict to have that vulnerability made real, and finally acted upon.

        40

  • #
    Bill In Oz

    I hereby dub our Prime Minister SLOMO !
    And today SLOMO was hard at work – maybe !

    The ban on travellers from Iran & China now includes South Korea !
    Hurrah – only 10 days too late SLOMO !
    But anyone from Italy is still welcome if they satisfactorily answer a few online questions.
    And of course Italians never ‘lie’ do they ?

    Ohhhhh there are only 3000 people diagnosed with COVIF 19 now !
    Maybe SLOMO can’t count ?

    60

    • #
      PeterS

      It’s typical of conservative governments. That are often too conservative, which is sometimes a problem. It’s the price we pay for avoiding the other side, which is much worse in so many ways.

      20

  • #
    David Engel

    I think the world is going crazy. You have these nutcases like Greta thinking the world is going to end. You have news media freaking out about a daily high on some island off the Antarctic peninsula. Maybe technology makes people nuttier and nuttier. People think hurricanes are manmade. This outbreak just has to be looked at as any other outbreak is looked at. Take the cruise ship. If there were 3,000 people on the ship and 650 came down with coronavirus, why didn’t the other 2,350 people get the virus. What are the differences between the people who got sick and the people who did not get sick? That should give the CDC a clue as to how likely this disease is going to turn into a pandemic.

    81

    • #

      David, I’m sure someone has that data on the cruise ship. Remember that they were only there two weeks and they were supposedly isolated from each other. Despite that, nearly 20% came down with it in only two weeks. I wish those studies were published.

      80

      • #
        Peter C

        I’m sure someone has that data on the cruise ship.

        I am not so sure. Yes there must be some data. Who were in each cabin etc.

        But, as far as I know, No epidemiologists got on board, or even got involved. It is still an important case study on the disease transmission, so it should be studied ASAP. Yet nothing seems to have been done

        40

        • #
          David A

          Another study of 2000 people should be made; the case in South Korea of one local sect from that national church group? 2000 in one group, 83 percent very quickly infected, about 600, or 33 percent, infected but asymptomatic. ( This is strong evidence of the lack of innate immunity in the population vs the flu) So the true R.O. without the quarantines, and a death rate of over 5 percent ( minimum)
          once hospitals are overwhelmed, means you cannot treat this as a regular flu. China did what they did for a reason. South Korea has now locked down in two cities.

          10

  • #
    Drapetomania

    It will have the same mortality as normal influenza versions.
    It will kill elderly and immune suppressed etc.
    The vaccine angle is odd…its an ever mutating RNA virus.The vaccine will only work for that “flavour” and all it will do is reduce the disease time and severity.
    It will probably not surpass the approx 1/2K that die in the US from influenza week in week out.
    And the way the CDC records stuff..that death rate is probably a low count anyway.
    And if you extrapolate those numbers to china which does not have the same level of medical or reporting as US..then the bog standard flu would be killing about 4 times..minimum..week in week out in China.
    Which works out if you low ball it as about 200k per year..year in year out.
    Has this version killed numbers at about 4k per week in China…who knows but I doubt it..

    The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary.

    —H.L. MENCKEN, 1921

    92

  • #
    WXcycles

    The 3.4% WHO number was not a surprise the data has been converging on it for 2 weeks. i.e.

    Current Global Totals
    Cases | Deaths | Serious critical | Cases v Deaths Ratio | % Who Died
    95,481 | 3,286 | 6,420 | 29.06 |3.44 %

    Seems that’s all their announcement was based upon.

    80

    • #
      Rolf

      Chinese numbers

      20

    • #
      David A

      WX, and those are understated, because the cured number is not part if the equation, and the expected death from the critical, and those recently infected yet to go critical.

      Almost a guarantee that once you the first 100k cases are resolved, either cured or fatal, the CFR will be over 5, and the R naught, sans student quarantine, at least double the flu. 50 times the death per thousand, and double the infected, will result in 100 times the flu death rate. ( If treated like a common flu). There is a reason China shut down their economy.

      10

  • #
    Bill In Oz

    Here at Mt Barker in SA
    The local Flight Center office in the main shopping mall
    Has been closed.
    One young bloke working there flew home recently from Italy
    And has been diagnosed with Corona Virus disease.
    The other staff are being tested & have been told to self isolate at home
    Until the results of the tests are known.
    Hunt, his side kick CMO Murphy
    And SLOMO are all personally responsible for this !
    It has happened because of their incompetence !

    70

    • #
      Peter Fitzroy

      And yet they still have not excluded Italy yet. I agree wholeheartedly with you Bill – and have given you a green thumb (only the second I’ve ever done)

      01

    • #
      TedM

      I think Scomo would have been obediently following the advice of his chief medical officer who in turn would have been slavishly following the advice of that incompetent cesspit WHO.

      80

    • #
      Bill In Oz

      This has been reported on Channel 7 News.
      However I made a mistake.
      It is a young woman who returned from Italy recently, NOT a bloke.

      And nothing on ABC Adelaide news on line about this…
      This has been reported on the local ‘Adelaide Hills Alerts’ Facebook group
      But the woman who put up the post was roundly abused by a series of bogan dumbnuts
      And the moderators tuned off commenting.
      The comments here are so courteous by comparison.
      🙂

      40

  • #
    TedM

    Chinese scientists say that they have discovered that the novel coronavirus has two strains. You may have seen that suggestion on this blog.

    20

  • #
    Choroin

    3-4% doesn’t sound like a lot, until you take into account the transmissibility dynamics of this particular virus, which seems to be very easily transmitted.

    Is it just me, or has this spread so much quicker than SARS did?

    30

    • #
      Rolf

      So much quicker,because it spreads before the infected person show any symptoms. Estimate from Harvard now 50-70% will be infected. Especially if governments do nothing as of now. Need draconian measures to contain this until there is at least a cure. Then do the count 1% dead which probably is very low, is 40 million dead. Hope there will be a cure SOON.

      30

  • #
    Choroin

    SARS broke out in 2003-2004 and then seemed to drop off the radar.

    No vaccine was ever produced for it.

    I hope and pray that a similar downturn in cases happens with COVID-19, but it seems as if this virus is symptomatically not as severe as SARS while being vastly more transmissible.

    20

  • #
    Deplorable Lord Kek

    Morrison blocks flights from Iran… 2 weeks too late

    Morrison blocks flights from South Korea… 2 weeks too late.

    Morrison announces extra screening for passengers from Italy… 2 weeks too late.

    just hopeless.

    50

    • #
      Bill In Oz

      SLOMO hard at work !
      Supported by the comedy team Murphy & Hunt !

      40

    • #
      Choroin

      Could have been worse though, the Labor Party could have been in power.

      Blocking flights from ANY non-European country would be deemed racist automatically, methinks.

      Not that I’m trying to excuse ScoMo the King of Pandering, who seemingly has no spine of his own.

      If only Tony Abbott were still the PM, I wonder what the response would have been?

      40

  • #
    Rolf

    In Sweden now government threaten people who go out if infected with prison. Probably causing harm to other.

    To me it’s premeditated murder not to invoke quarantine.
    1. When entering the country
    2. When entering local areas confirmed clean from the virus.

    How can we hold them accountable ?

    40

  • #
    Steve of Cornubia

    For the second time recently, I read an article in a newspaper in which an “expert” sought to play down the danger. He cited the Diamond Princess as a reliable measure of fatality rates, it being like a “controlled environment”.

    Among the reasons he put forward to allay public fears, he stated that the majority of deaths have been among the over 70s.

    I know animosity toward old people is growing these days, but can anybody point to precisely when they ceased to be humans of any consequence? OK, I know that they have ruined the atmosphere, polluted the oceans, driven property prices out of the reach of young people and brought the public health system to a standstill (have I missed anything Greta?) but surely SOMEBODY still cares?

    Anybody?

    80

  • #

    Anyone think the Australian government would care if 15% of OAP’s died?

    60

    • #
      Graeme No.3

      Yes, as those OAP’s mostly vote for the government.
      Reverse your logic, what would Labor care if inner city Wokes (aged 20-30) were much more likely to die.

      30

  • #
  • #

    The number of active cases has been going down steadily, even as “new” countries report cases and sometimes deaths. It looks like today there will be slightly more active cases (just over 40,000) than yesterday (Just under). A couple of weeks ago it was about 60,000.

    Report of the WHO-China Joint Mission: Fatality rate 3.8%? This seems grossly misleading.

    “As of 20 February, 2,114 of the 55,924 laboratory confirmed cases have died (crude fatality ratio [CFR: 3.8%) (note: at least some of whom were identified using a case definition that included pulmonary disease).

    The overall CFR varies by location and intensity of transmission (i.e. 5.8% in Wuhan vs. 0.7% in other areas in China).

    In China, the overall CFR was higher in the early stages of the outbreak (17.3% for cases with symptom onset from 1-10 January) and has reduced over time to 0.7% for patients with symptom onset after 1 February. ” [12]

    In a way some of the countries with more recent outbreaks seem to have driven the death rate up: deaths per cases known to be CV seem high. But:

    The China experience suggests that there is both high infectiousness and high mortality at the epicenter–where notable infection first comes to attention. In the U.S., this would be one nursing home in one county of Washington State. As you go out in concentric circles from the epicenter, the death rate quickly becomes negligible. The death rate also seems to lower as time goes by–within weeks.

    From Josh Marshall: S Korea doing some of most thorough testing. Over 5300 cases. No fatalities under 30. Very few under 50. Overall death rate among **confirmed** cases .6%. Heavy concentration of mortality over age 70.

    Detailed info from Helen Branswell. https://twitter.com/HelenBranswell/status/1235211584600932352

    10

    • #
      WXcycles

      In China, the overall CFR was higher in the early stages of the outbreak (17.3% for cases with symptom onset from 1-10 January) and has reduced over time to 0.7% for patients with symptom onset after 1 February. “

      Likely a result of a lack of early detection and testing due to a lack of testing capacity, i.e. there were a lot more cases present than they could detect. If you remember back in January the main way to diagnose an abnormal double-pneumonia was present were the “glassy-looking” lung infections on x-ray imaging. They would have only been doing that for serious obvious cases. So mortality should skew high in the early days.

      2c

      20

  • #
    Rolf

    Mortality on Diamond Princess just went down to 2.75%. They recovered 112 patients today. Still 35 Serious among 488 open cases though, that’s 7.17%.

    20

    • #
      WXcycles

      These cases are biased to an older (but generally healthy) cohort so serious cases should be on the high side.

      10

      • #
        David A

        Yes, but these people are getting good hospital care. That will not happen if thus was treated like a common flu.

        20