JoNova

A science presenter, writer, speaker & former TV host; author of The Skeptic's Handbook (over 200,000 copies distributed & available in 15 languages).


Handbooks


Advertising


Australian Speakers Agency



GoldNerds

The nerds have the numbers on precious metals investments on the ASX



The Skeptics Handbook

Think it has been debunked? See here.

The Skeptics Handbook II

Climate Money Paper



Archives

Books

Weekend Unthreaded

10 out of 10 based on 18 ratings

334 comments to Weekend Unthreaded

  • #
    PeterW

    Another night, another fire. The season is moving south.
    Timbered country, especially pines, and steep slopes made it impossible to control.

    Bed looks good.

    150

    • #
      Hivemind

      And extremely high fuel loads caused by green councils that won’t allow backburning.

      120

    • #

      Except for this:

      East Gippsland residents and holidaymakers urged to leave ahead of escalating bushfire danger

      40

      • #

        The news reports indicate that around 30,000 holiday makers have been asked/ordered to return home/leave east Gippsland. I can just imagine what the roads leading to the Princes freeway will be like and then the Princes freeway itself, when everyone is trying to get home at once. It will be bedlam.

        60

  • #
    el gordo

    All the pieces are falling into place.

    ‘The scientists say the influence of the stratosphere on weather patterns, as well as how this interacts with long-term weather patterns in the tropics like El Niño, should be studied further and incorporated into forecasts to improve their accuracy.’ (wuwt)

    100

    • #

      I am skeptical of all this stratosphere hype. Weather is determined primarily by the movement of huge air masses (with enormous mass). The stratosphere has almost no mass, so I do not see how it can have much influence on weather, if any.

      142

      • #
        el gordo

        Methinks there is a solar influence, but haven’t joined the dots.

        Radiative forcing is not easy to understand, yet we know for sure that contemporary sea level rise is not unprecedented.

        https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-019-0503-7

        70

        • #
          Graeme#4

          Does radiative forcing exist? The papers I’ve been reading recently seem to say no.

          60

          • #
            Kalm Keith

            Radiative forcing is a new term invented to describe something that doesn’t exist.

            130

          • #
            Graeme Bird

            At the very least the phraseology is tendentious. Since their disproven ideology is imbedded in the wording.

            62

            • #

              Agreed. It is a confused concept at best. Cherry picking a small part feature of a complex process and giving it a suggestive name. Note that CO2 and other GHGs remove energy from the atmosphere and beam it out into space. Is this “radiative deforcing”? It is just as prevalent as the so-called forcing but it has no name.

              AGW is full of semantic tricks like this. If you ask Google for the definition of “global warming” the definition you get says it is caused by humans. Natural warming is ruled out by definition!

              The alarmists have coined an ideologically loaded language.

              120

              • #
                el gordo

                Yeah they have invented the terminology, but we’ll have to work with it. The term ‘forcing’ is used to indicate that earth’s radiative balance ‘is pushed away from its normal state.’ There is no such thing as a normal state on this chaotic planet.

                Still, we can explain that radiative forcing is also natural and happened before the Industrial Revolution.

                ‘These lowstands are synchronous with reductions in radiative forcing and sea surface temperature associated with the Late Antiquity Little Ice Age and the Little Ice Age. Our results provide high-fidelity observations of lower sea levels during these cool periods and show rates of change of up to 4.24 mm yr−1.’

                40

              • #
                Slithers

                Watch out for a new publication on PSI that de-bunks the satellite temperate myth.
                Yes I wrote it, lol

                30

            • #

              Graeme “cracker” Bird sez:
              “the phraseology is tendentious”

              You must be a riot at parties !

              10

              • #
                Graeme Bird

                I’m a menace at parties. I try to avoid them. If you invite me to a party make sure I show up with only mid-strength beer. I don’t really get the joke. I don’t get the cracker stuff either. All their phraseology is like this. “Climate denier” … there is no such thing right? Notice you had to shorten what I said to make it seem as dry as it does. The one time I try and be moderate and you are calling me a cracker. What is this cracker thing all about? I’m not a member of any racially exclusive groups. However there are these groups around. But they aren’t Anglo-Saxon-Celt groups right? Do I have that right? There are racist groups around. They are just not groups I could join. Maybe you could join such a group. But I cannot.

                Cracker.

                02

      • #
        el gordo

        And being a big fan of Stephen Wilde, the jet streams are major players.

        https://www.newclimatemodel.com/is-the-sun-driving-ozone-and-changing-the-climate/

        90

      • #
        Peter C

        The Stratosphere is a stable layer, above the Troposphere. The lower Stratosphere is isothermal, then the temperature increases higher up.

        So the Stratosphere acts as a lid on the Troposphere (where there is constant mixing of the air). Convective heat transfer stops at the Tropopause. So I suppose that the Stratosphere could affect heat transfer from the surface and the lower atmosphere.

        40

        • #
          el gordo

          This recent paper looks at the QBO and ENSO as part of the mix.

          https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2019JD030435

          00

        • #

          The term “lid” suggest a force the stratosphere does not have. It is an extremely empty boundary layer.

          80

          • #
            Peter C

            The term “lid” suggest a force the stratosphere does not have. It is an extremely empty boundary layer.

            Perhaps.
            My intention here was to make an analogy with the physical greenhouse. A physical greenhouse gets warmer by preventing convection, which would otherwise allow the warm air (warmed by the sun) to escape upwards. The Tropopause is the boundary of an atmospheric “lid” that prevents any further convection, because air cannot rise into warmer air above.

            I admit that the boundary is pretty cold and insubstantial as far as mass is concerned. I think it means however that only radiative cooling needs to be considered at the Tropopause and the “effective radiative global temperature” is somewhere in the Troposphere, not above.

            30

            • #
              glen Michel

              Correct Peter advection and saturated adiabatic are the principal mechanisms. Dry adiabatic has little interaction with surrounds but seeks equilibrium. I try to explain this around the BBQ. Of course advection describes winds.

              30

      • #
        Graeme Bird

        Right but there should be a massive build up in electrical capacitance in the stratosphere. Since there isn’t the water molecules to polarise, start lining up, and start conducting better than either normal molecules or space (ie aether). Its the stratosphere where nitrogen gets turned into carbon 14. I call this “fusion” and I think its enabled by this electrical buildup. So things happening in the stratosphere could effect things lower down. For example all that water vapour that the jets are putting in the stratosphere could have unpredictable effects.

        37

      • #
        WXcycles

        I am skeptical of all this stratosphere hype. Weather is determined primarily by the movement of huge air masses (with enormous mass). The stratosphere has almost no mass, so I do not see how it can have much influence on weather, if any.

        That is a generalization an not correct.

        The tropopause is about 16 km high (52,000 ft) at the equator, and about 8.5 km on average (~28,000 feet) at the poles. The air above the poles in between 8.5 km and 16 kilometers (i.e. 7.5 km, or 24,000 ft of air) on top of the polar Hadley Cell, does not cease to exist. Nor does its mass at that elevation become inconsequential, just because it’s now labelled ‘stratosphere’ simply due to it being above the elevation of the convectively much less active sunken polar tropopause. The stratosphere is deeper over the poles, and the bulk of the stratosphere’s mass is thus over the pole.

        If a cooling polar stratosphere is increasingly tending toward a negatively buoyancy, due to protracted lower tropospheric cooling, it has the necessary mass and potential-energy to intrude and displace the upper troposphere below it downwards and radially outwards from the Antarctic continent.

        After major SSWs stratospheric downwellings are commonly observed to occur, as the SSW’s temperature increase fades and the SSW disturbed air falls back towards its usual altitude. Except parcels of it can overshoot and keep going downwards to indirectly affect the lower troposphere.

        The Downward Influence of Sudden Stratospheric Warmings: Association with Tropospheric Precursors

        “Abstract
        … In agreement with recent observational studies, it is found that approximately one-third of SSWs are preceded by extreme episodes of wave activity in the lower troposphere. The relationship becomes stronger in the lower stratosphere, where ~60% of SSWs are preceded by extreme wave activity at 100 hPa. Additional analysis characterizes events that do or do not appear to subsequently impact the troposphere, referred to as downward and non-downward propagating SSWs, respectively. On average, tropospheric wave activity is larger preceding downward-propagating SSWs compared to non-downward propagating events, and associated in particular with a doubly strengthened Siberian high. Of the SSWs that were preceded by extreme lower-tropospheric wave activity, ~2/3 propagated down to the troposphere, … Splits exhibit a near instantaneous, barotropic response in the stratosphere and troposphere, while displacements have a stronger long-term influence.”

        https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0053.1

        Downward movement from the stratosphere does occur and displacement of the upper troposphere also takes place.

        What I’ve proposed to explain the radically accelerated subtropical jetstream is a protracted continuous slow displacement due to gravitationally-driven slow sinking of the stratospheric air column as it cools further below the point it can sustain its own elevation. If you cool it, it will at some point sink proportionately. If the cooling rate increases it will begin to dynamically sink faster and more often.

        You can’t just ignore this possibility as the rise in jet speed is occurring. Everyday there are 4 new ECMWF runs and each time they initiate a run they contain the prior 6 hours of observations (at the beginning) as their starting-point. The prior observational series starting point is in fact still visible, and can be examined within the extra 6 hours that are included prior to the model run’s release time-stamp.

        Below is the starting point for the model release that occurred just after 6AM this morning (AEST). In other words, what you see here are the global observations from about midnight, last night. This below is not a model forecast output, it is observation.

        https://i.ibb.co/0Yd7Xtv/This-is-observational-not-altered-by-model-interations-Screenshot-2019-12-29-Windy-as-forecasted-2.png

        I’ve been watching this develop for about 6 weeks now, and the model’s starting input observations are subsequently confirming the trend and scale of what the model has been forecasting with regard to jetstream speed. The inputs confirm it is occurring as forecast. There’s a very fast jetstream flow depicted within the current input data from observations, which is 135 km/h faster than it should be, within the first week of January, just to the SE of Perth, this morning.

        This ~135 km/h faster maximum jetstream speed is part of the logged observations.

        I pointed out yesterday, that at this time of year the maximum speed of any Summer hemisphere should be no higher in speed than ~218 km/h during the early mid-summer.

        Do you have an explanation for the implied (and sensor logged) injection of colder air equatorward in the mid-latitude mid-levels until it encounters the subtropical jet, from the polar mid-latitude troposphere, while occurring in both mid-latitudes irrespective of the season? Tropospheric dynamics are strongly correlated with the seasons. But what’s driving this injection of cold air is ignoring seasons.

        In other words, it’s not being driven by the troposphere, it’s altering the troposphere and is indifferent to seasonal influences and controls on dynamics.

        How do you explain this given your rejection of sinking air from the polar stratosphere, which we already know does occur and displaces the troposphere when it has gained sufficient energy? How is a pervasive longer term gravity-driven (i.e. density-driven sink, the opposite of convective dynamics) insufficient to provide the potential energy to slowly displace the gas of the upper troposphere downward, and eventually radially outwards?

        I’m curious how your understanding can attempt to explain this using just a season-driven troposphere’s dynamics, alone.

        And if in due course you find you can’t explain it with the troposphere’s seasonal dynamics alone, I’d appreciate if you’d state that within a later comment on the topic so that mechanistic avenue can be put aside.

        60

        • #
          Graeme Bird

          “What I’ve proposed to explain the radically accelerated subtropical jetstream is a protracted continuous slow displacement due to gravitationally-driven slow sinking of the stratospheric air column as it cools further below the point it can sustain its own elevation. If you cool it, it will at some point sink proportionately. If the cooling rate increases it will begin to dynamically sink faster and more often.”

          But the jetstream more generally has to be explained by the electrical buildup above where water molecules tap out …. trying to earth. Since there is no water molecules up there the air doesn’t conduct very well. But electricity wants to penetrate down but it cannot do it very well. So the air gets moved around and around in this futile attempt to earth.

          36

          • #
            WXcycles

            This is getting away from the topic Graeme. The jetstream is not seeking an explanation as the WX models are physics, and their math predicts the jetstream’s dynamics from known physical mechanisms with extraordinary accuracy over many days.

            90

            • #
              Graeme Bird

              Come on now. We cannot explain the wind that way. The energy has to come from somewhere. Think of the energy in a cyclone or lightning from clouds? What about the earths electrical field? Its magnetic field which implies electrical current? We cannot just ignore these things and say “nothing to see here.” Thats just silly. One blogger says the following:

              ” 1. The Earth has an overall negative electric charge at its surface. Fact.
              2 .It has an outer shell of positive electric charge that is the ionosphere. Fact.
              3. Further out into space there are two co-rotating Van Allen Belts, an inside one with positive charge, and an outer one with negative charge. Fact.
              4. Moving electric charges are called electric currents. Fact.
              5. Co-rotating electrical torii produce magnetic dipoles. Fact.”

              Can you pick up on any mistake here? I think Louis Hissink is basically right here isn’t he? There seems to be a bit of a hush order on these electrical effects. Like this constant nonsense about comets being snowballs. No snow no ball no snowball. You are here under a pseudonym. If you cannot get real about these things under those conditions you aren’t going to get real in a year of Sundays. No we don’t have the energy to explain the jet stream without electrical energy. Thats impossible.

              37

              • #
                WXcycles

                … We cannot just ignore these things and say “nothing to see here.” …

                Um, yes we can. Forecasting models contain not one bit of that and their physics work extremely well for a week or more in advance. Which clearly implies what you’re talking about is completely irrelevant to accurate weather forecasting. Thus I’m not the slightest bit interested it the ‘paradigm’, as applied to weather, nor its proselytism as a quasi-belief system.

                91

              • #
                Graeme Bird

                You can ignore reality if you want to WXcycles. But thats not the scientific method. No their physics don’t work well ignoring electrical energy. They are a joke. You are delusional. How many jet engines would you need to keep the jet stream going around the clock? So where is that energy coming from? Clearly you are just playing silly-buggers here.

                Completely delusional. No energy source.

                39

              • #
                Graeme Bird

                Forecasting models? What a joke. Ludicrous. Veering all the way backwards to the global warming [f***d] type of thinking. No energy source. Dog ate your homework. Rely on the computer models. No energy, no clue no science.

                [Please avoid using that word] ED

                26

              • #
                Graeme Bird

                Your basing a forecast on correlation without an explanation as to where the energy is coming from. It may even work as a forecasting tool. But its foolish and unbecoming as a scientist to be so against a rational explanation of cause and effect. Cool thin air sinking slowly CAUSES??? thicker air to move really really fast? To accelerate? No we cannot divorce logic from science fella. Thats just not on. No good can come from this irrationality.

                38

              • #
                WXcycles

                So where is that energy coming from? Clearly you are just playing silly-buggers here. Completely delusional. No energy source.

                Solar photons. It’s not even a mystery. But I note that you think it is one. Most human beings have no problem recognizing the Sun as a source of energy powering the weather given that we see it and experience is firsthand every day, with our own eyes. I guess you just like a ‘mystery’ where there’s none.

                You can take your Electron-Gawd worship as ‘nu-sci-religion’ to a toilet bowl, and don’t forget to press the flush button.

                80

              • #
                Graeme Bird

                No your solar photons story is completely ridiculous, irrational and wrong. Lets put aside the reality that there is no such thing as a photon, the atmosphere at that point is almost totally transparent to solar radiation. So there is no transfer mechanism to take electro-magnetic radiation and transfer it to kinetic energy. Thats a fail on your part.

                47

              • #
                Graeme Bird

                Failed model. [SNIP]

                28

              • #
                WXcycles

                Graeme Bird
                December 29, 2019 at 9:21 pm
                No your solar photons story is completely ridiculous, irrational and wrong. Lets put aside the reality that there is no such thing as a photon, the atmosphere at that point is almost totally transparent to solar radiation. So there is no transfer mechanism to take electro-magnetic radiation and transfer it to kinetic energy. Thats a fail on your part.

                OK, you’re dismissed as a [snip]. Here’s the last wasted frontal lobe electrons I’ll ever be wasting on you.

                Obtain an actual met text about the remedial topic of atmospheric CONVECTION.

                Bye.

                60

              • #
                Graeme Bird

                No you are dismissed [snip], since you don’t have a conversion mechanism to drive the jet stream. So for example how do you convert heat energy to electrical energy? You heat water, use the phase change of water to drive a turbine through a magnetic theory creating an electric current.

                So how are you claiming electro-magnetic radiation would drive the jet stream? You don’t have a transmission mechanism for one energy source to go to the other. Its a real dog-ate-my-homework story. Its worse than the trace gas hysterics. Completely nonsensical. There is no serious heating of the air, if their was it wouldn’t lead to horizontal movement of air. Y[snip].

                37

              • #
                Graeme Bird

                Convection. [snip] Convection is an upward swirling motion running counter to gravity. Thats not what the jet stream is doing [snip]. The jet stream is an horizontal motion.

                Okay so to everyone who sees this retreat into anti-science ….. Take it from me. You get a lot of traction if you identify where the sacred cows are in science, and you then you just look at the situation without these sacred cows in place. For some reason we aren’t allowed to understand electrical energy in space. Even though we know and can measure the electrical impedance of the aether. But since we are not allowed to believe in the aether this is called the electrical impedance of space. When you have this impedance you have charge buildup. Impedance and capacitance go hand in hand. And you have an electric current for starters coming from sources both near the earths atmosphere and in the suns corona. You also have the electric current on top of that imbedded in the solar wind.

                The ultimate original sin of all this science obstruction started with aether denial. Aether-denial even though its proven that light travels in waves. Lets supposing that it all started without connivance and that its all just something to do with emergent stupidity within human institutions. Thats the start of the nuttiness right there. Aether-denial. But trying to put electrical energy in a box is another institutional failing. And you see it here big-time.

                36

              • #
                Graeme Bird

                The magic photons, almost none of which are blocked at jet stream level, sustaining winds of 404 kilometres per hour. Running day and night. And causing bursts of rapid acceleration. Without any known energy transfer mechanism. You may have to realise that you are not that bright. Magic photon theory.

                35

              • #
                Graeme Bird

                “What I’ve proposed to explain the radically accelerated subtropical jetstream is a protracted continuous slow displacement due to gravitationally-driven slow sinking of the stratospheric air column as it cools further below the point it can sustain its own elevation. If you cool it, it will at some point sink proportionately. If the cooling rate increases it will begin to dynamically sink faster and more often.”

                So its solar photons driving the jet stream through unknown mechanisms one minute, and its a cooling stratosphere accelerating the jet stream another. The acceleration in the second instance is not caused by more energy but by its absence. Once you know where the sacred cows are in science, the excuses become Pythonesque. Clearly accepting the errors of ones group must be a good career move. The stupid become upwardly mobile. Slow cooling air is now causing an acceleration in already fast moving air of a more dense variety. Thats just attaching a number of stupid things together in a single faux-causal chain. The air that is slower, less dense, and being deprived of energy is causing the more dense, faster moving air to accelerate.

                Causing. Not correlated with. Causing. According to one [snip]
                The idea that slow settling air can speed up faster moving air is like suggesting that I can make a female sprinter accelerate by slapping her on the butt, when I cannot move that fast in the first place. Can you ever remember seeing such a denial of a clear root cause and a confusion between correlation and causation? I’m settling into my chair because the race has started and someone is suggesting I’m transferring energy to accelerate the runners.

                Clearly all that needs to be done to control science is to force people to believe a few key things that cannot possibly be true. That sets up a series of punishments and rewards which makes sure the last men standing are the ones who cannot do the job.

                35

        • #

          Given a one square meter column of air from the surface upward, what are the masses of the troposphere and the stratosphere? And what is the ratio?g

          I suspect the stratosphere is inconsequential when it comes to moving tropospheric air masses of the size that create weather. Likewise for shaping jet streams.

          56

          • #
            Graeme Bird

            Sure I reckon if you are talking radiation convection and conduction, you would have to be right. I think once the joule makes it to the stratosphere, its basically lost to space. But what about electricity transmission? Thats really what drives the wind and the weather. Its the stratosphere where all the electrical pressure will be. And note the satellite information showing a clear cooling trend in the lower stratosphere. I haven’t heard anyone step up to explain this. One Irish father and son team came up with a fourth energy transmission system between the stratosphere and the troposphere. Sounds brilliant but I think its a work in progress. I think they need to bring electricity moving its way from the ionosphere, to the deep earth, into their model.

            48

            • #
              Graeme Bird

              [Pre-SNIP……“if you cannot do the aurora, how about explaining where the energy is coming from to drive the Antarctic circumpolar current?”…….post-SNIP.
              I don’t know if this is a worthy question but it at least is a question….]ED

              25

          • #
            WXcycles

            I’m interested in above the poles David.

            60

            • #
              Curious George

              But you are not interested in numbers.

              23

              • #
                WXcycles

                Would you like to just ignore the mass of the gases from 28,000 ft to 52,000 ft over the south pole because they’re above the polar tropopause? Or is there special magic which automatically makes air at 28,001 ft over the pole the same density as gases at 52,001 ft over the equator, if they’re re-labelled, “Stratosphere”?

                The stratosphere above the poles contains a whole lot more molecules per cubic meter than at the equator, I thought this was the obvious meaning of what I said.

                David claims the molecules above 28,000 ft and below 52,000 ft (plus what’s above that) have insufficient mass to affect the troposphere when observations post major polar SSWs show they do strongly affect and displace the troposphere. The molecules above 28,000 ft have the same mass and much higher density than 52,001 ft stratosphere at the equator. So it’s up to the person who claims the gas will have no affect to take those molecules into account and prove they have insufficient mass and potential energy to affect the troposphere (contrary to the observations).

                I don;t have any problem with accepting they have sufficient mass to affect the troposphere, as we see the same gases doing every day within the troposphere right now, the gases from 28,001 ft to 52,000 ft above Darwin do in fact affect the troposphere.

                Please explain what makes either of you think these molecules suddenly don’t have enough mass to affect the troposphere above the poles?

                It is humidity level which defines the top of the troposphere over the pole, not much of it gets far above 28,000 ft. That’s what the polar tropopause is, it’s not a magic ‘barrier’ to movements of air vertically across it, in either direction.

                The temperature in version above the south pole is currently at about 41,000 ft. Which means all the molecules below that altitude, between 28,001 ft to about 40,000 ft are free to move up of down across the tropopause at any time, and they do, every day.

                Just have a look at Geopotential-Height isobars and wind overlaid on the temperature map at 39,000 ft, 34,000 ft, 30,000 ft and 24,000 ft, within ECMWF – there’s cold air sinking from 39,000 ft (stratosphere) down to 24,000 ft (troposphere) right now, within the daily observations.

                This is not a theory, polar air is currently sinking from the stratosphere down to the troposphere in observations.

                The only question is, has that significantly increased?

                40

              • #
                Graeme Bird

                “Would you like to just ignore the mass of the gases from 28,000 ft to 52,000 ft over the south pole because they’re above the polar tropopause? Or is there special magic which automatically makes air at 28,001 ft over the pole the same density as gases at 52,001 ft over the equator, if they’re re-labelled, “Stratosphere”?”

                See how your theory falls down? If you are relying on “solar photons” for a lot of joules to do a lot of work, and you are relying on these solar photons in the stratosphere “above the poles” you don’t have a great many solar photons to work with. Dudes are going to wonder why you would think that this joule deprived frigid air could do much of anything. Everything changes when you stop living in denial about electrical reality.

                Now you’ve probably seen through professional experience that the stratosphere tail does indeed seem to wag the dog. But its not doing it because its channelling all these magic photons that you are talking about. The stratosphere above the poles has barely got two solar photons to rub together to keep it warm, even if these photons existed, which they don’t. Because at the poles, with bugger all water vapour, any light not reflected off clouds goes straight down to the ice without doing anything. Then straight back up again.

                If your experience tells you that the Stratosphere tail is wagging the troposphere dog, then say so. Thats valuable information. But its not doing it via electromagnetic radiation. Have a shot at explaining those auroras without electrical effects. And the electrical effects would have to be there because of the lack of water vapour and the difficulty of the electrical energy earthing.

                35

              • #
                Graeme Bird

                “So it’s up to the person who claims the gas will have no affect to take those molecules into account and prove they have insufficient mass and potential energy to affect the troposphere (contrary to the observations).”

                I am sure you have the practice right. But you don’t have the theory right. You are talking about potential energy of thin frigid air above the poles that lets sunlight pass it by both ways. There is no potential energy that isn’t electrical. The electrical buildup in these areas must be staggering. So the potential energy is there in reality but it cannot be there in your theory. Because you are claiming that this potential energy comes from solar photons. Crazy talk. What potential energy then? If you are relying on LIGHT only. You’ve got nothing.

                15

              • #
                WXcycles

                Deal with it twerp, I ain’t converting to your stupid Electron-Religion.
                [He’s just about gotten to the full length of his rope. He’s been here before and had to be moderated. Some people can change. Probably not Mr. Bird. Please don’t let him pull you down].ED

                72

              • #
                Graeme Bird

                Curious George sez:

                “But you are not interested in numbers.

                EPIcycles [WXcycles] Sez:

                “Please explain what makes either of you think these molecules suddenly don’t have enough mass to affect the troposphere above the poles?”

                So I Sez:

                George you wouldn’t think you would need to explain would you? Bugger all air molecules. Freezing conditions. No thermal energy to speak of. Months of total darkness? Where are the joules coming from? Epicycles[WXcycles] has you all stymied by his reductions to absurdity. But I think we should respect his experience. If he thinks the South Poles Stratosphere is pushing the Antarctic or even the Southern Hemisphere troposphere around I think we should take this seriously.

                Supposing I’m right and extra water vapour put into the lower stratosphere by jet engines may be aiding conductivity in the stratosphere over parts of the globe. Supposing I’m right about us having a secondary source of energy thats driving most of the weather and 99% of horizontal wind power, and thats the need for the the voltage difference between the ionosphere and the deep earth (and indeed the corona and the deep earth) to work itself out. Well think of the situation in Antarctica? Few jets flying over Antarctica right? Not much water vapour over that giant continent right?

                When hurricanes are out to sea they tend to pick up momentum. But once they are fully across land they tend to short out. Hurricanes passing over the islands might lose all their steam dramatically if they come across an island volcano that conducts really well. But in Antarctica what can the electricity do? No exposed land. Its all covered in non-conducting ice. So much electrical energy in fact that the winds wind up forcing a great column of water to go eternally around that continent. A never-ending swirling of that water. Think what energy it would take to make that size of a water whirlwind go by artificial means?

                So the electrical energy must build up in the antarctic stratosphere and probably in the antarctic troposphere even. Without much opportunity to relieve itself. So if EPIcycles [WXcycles] were to say that the Antarctic Stratosphere is slapping around the southern hemisphere troposphere …. Maybe he’s speaking from experience. His theory makes no sense. But maybe we ought to believe that this is what he is observing?

                [Graham Bird, I’m not going to waste my time editing your comments. Straighten up, use peoples real handle or name and no more ad-homs!] ED

                15

            • #
              Graeme Bird

              [SNIP WITHOUT COMMENT!]ED

              16

            • #
              Graeme Bird

              I think [SNIP all the rest]

              [I’m not sure I’d call it that. How soon you descend to the Graeme Bird that gets sent home. Sorry for you fella, we aren’t going to put up with it.]ED

              25

              • #
                Kalm Keith

                Very controlled and respectful.

                🙂 🙂

                23

              • #
                Graeme Bird

                Yeah you are right. Good call. Ironic observation noted. But you know. You have to explain where the energy is coming from. Or you have to suggest that its pristine energy coming into the universe for the very first time. And that has to happen right? There can be no conservation of mass and energy or there would be no mass or energy ever. So the conservation laws are not merely wrong but they are logical contradictions.

                But still we should not casually ignore such laws. If you have an aurora, an accelerating jet stream, a jet stream in the first place, a hurricane that is the energy equivalent of a Nagasaki bomb every few seconds, and most astonishingly of all the circumpolar current …….. You have to explain where those joules are coming from. And if you cannot do that you ought to probably give it away and take up gardening or something.

                The Corona is of course more astonishing than even the circumpolar current around the Antarctic. But the circumpolar current is ignored. If we cannot explain that amount of water, moving continuously around a continent that size, at that speed, we ought to have our back-sides whipped, and be sent back to our countries of ultimate origin. If you think how many motors it would take to replicate that current, with that highly viscous freezing water, thats a lot of motors. This current keeps going even in the dead of winter.
                [SNIP If you are addressing someone or commenting on something they wrote use their correct name.] ED

                22

        • #
          Graeme Bird

          You cannot cause a rapid acceleration with a slow sinking. What you are looking at is correlation. Once the electrical energy is released to the jet stream, then positive electrical propulsion and thermal energy via electrical buildup will both be eased above that level. Thats why you will be seeing the sinking, the cooling, and the acceleration all at the same time. The electrical transfer is the source of all three. With the Irish father and son team they are looking for a sudden drop in a chunk of atmosphere, I think in the stratosphere, thats acting like a pump. And they are saying that the energy is coming from gravitational potential being transferred to heat energy. This needs work. The suspension in the first place is only possible with the electrical repulsion forces, and when the transfer of electrical energy is successful then the strata of air can successfully drop down.

          46

        • #
          Peter C

          WXCycles.

          You have made a contribution here and thanks for that. I think that the subject of Sudden Stratospheric Warming lacks understanding at this time.

          60

          • #
            Graeme Bird

            I think its pretty clear that its electrical buildup in a resistor. What else could it be? Like with the Corona. If you reject aether denialism that becomes easy to understand. You’ve got charge separation. Leading to charge buildup. But since space, or rather aether, is a resistor (376.73ohms) you get a temperature buildup along with the charge buildup. The stratosphere is where water vapour is already tapped out. So there is still strong resistance there. The electricity builds up and releases step fashion so if a black cloud is available that might transfer to lightning. But otherwise you might get an acceleration of the jet stream. The electrical energy will feed into something opportunistically.

            57

          • #
            Graeme Bird

            Under this interpretation the cooling trend in the lower stratosphere might be coming from jets taking water vapour up that high and causing greater conductivity. Greater conductivity could be having a warming effect but since the water vapour is a “darkly coloured” gas from the point of view of infrared, this will also have a counter-veiling blocking of sunlight. So you know. Two small counter-acting forces balancing out, or running on balance a little bit one way or the other. Maybe more conductivity at that level could be leading to more frequent but less powerful hurricanes. Because the buildup of electrical pressure doesn’t get quite as high, yet the conductivity between the ionosphere and the deep earth is enhanced a little bit. Extreme weather events just as frequent, perhaps a bit more frequent even, but a tiny bit less extreme. A downward trend in the power of extreme weather events.

            57

            • #
              WXcycles

              Not happening.

              These humidity images are from the South Pole to the mid-latitudes to the south of Australia showing extremely low humidity air is present in the lower stratosphere over the pole.

              45,000 ft Humidity (Scarlet = 0%, Green = 50%, Blue = 100%)
              https://i.ibb.co/nQvxWyQ/1-45000-ft-Humidity-Screenshot-2019-12-28-Windy-as-forecasted-3.png

              39,000 ft Humidity (Scarlet = 0%, Green = 50%, Blue = 100%)
              https://i.ibb.co/ysMFVNt/2-39000-ft-Humidity-Screenshot-2019-12-28-Windy-as-forecasted-4.png

              As I pointed out already above, if it’s over ~30k ft its already above the average altitude of the Polar-Hadley-Cell and above the tropopause. In other words, by definition, you are looking at the lower stratosphere within these two images.

              Only 1% humidity throughout the lower stratosphere.

              There’s nothing there to ‘conduct’ with.

              81

              • #
                Graeme Bird

                You have heard of jet engines have you not? They put water vapour in the stratosphere temporarily. Yes they do. They sure do. And that might have a temporary effect.

                37

              • #
                Graeme Bird

                You admitted that there is 1% humidity. And you don’t know what the humidity was prior to the jet engine, or when the cooling trend started in the lower stratosphere. It could easily have been less than 1% at these times and probably was, since its punishingly difficult for water molecules to get that far on their own.

                Failed inference. F-for-fail.

                28

              • #
                Graeme Bird

                [SNIP]

                28

              • #
                Graeme Bird

                Well el gordo you have to try and trace the change of conversion from one energy source to another. The wind shear cannot lift itself up from its own bootstraps. Its a manifestation of energy already in play. But whenever you have powerful horizontal winds, thats got to be ultimately coming from the difficult and painful process of high voltages between the ionosphere and the deep earth trying to resolve themselves. As Hunter S Thompson says, electricity is always homesick. It wants to go to earth and tries to find the easiest way there. Well there is no easy way there until you get to the water vapour, black clouds and all that. So the stratosphere capacitance buildup will be tremendous. And that buildup will be much closer to the ground in the polar regions lacking as they often do, a lot of water vapour. So you will get strange manifestations of this buildup. Like heat inversions and aurora and all kinds of oddness. The only other generator of horizontal winds are coriolis forces.

                But take all the overturning, the updrafts, all that mixing in the troposphere. Thats energy going the other way for the most part. So no I don’t think you are ever going to get another energy source for strong horizontal winds other than electricity trying to earth. But since that is one of these planks that are banned in science, for unknown reasons …. or perhaps to deny to us that there is unlimited electrical current to be tapped in space, or just through an Augustinian proof that the City Of Man is hopelessly flawed, whatever the reason we aren’t supposed to think about earthing electrical energy driving weather. So if you’ve got some Pythonesque explanation for some wind that would take a years hydrocarbon supply to replicate for one day, I think you are looking at this sacred cow based excuse-making.

                Take EPIcycles up above. He’s cracked it. He’s been watching these variables the last six weeks. He can forecast a week ahead. He’s got the situation completely down. He sees the parcel of air in the stratosphere, cool, settle, and the jet stream accelerate, all three together. So he’s got it sorted the correlation. But he cannot get the root cause. Because its not allowed. Its as clear as a sore thumb that when the electrical energy is passed down, the voltage drops, hence the cooling, an electrical repulsion from too much positive charge is lost, hence the settling of the cooling air, and the electrical energy is opportunistically passed on to the jet stream, hence the acceleration. Thats as clear as day and he’s cracked it. Ought to have been a momentous discovery. He should be popping the champagne bottles. We should all be patting him on the back. That was my original intention. And here I am beating up on EPIcycles because he won’t break the taboo.

                Its likely that something similar will be found out in this shearing business as well. I’ll have a look to see if anything sticks out. But once you know whats TAPU there is a lot of low-hanging fruit out there.

                15

              • #
                el gordo

                Okay thanks, is this kinetic energy?

                ‘ … and the electrical energy is opportunistically passed on to the jet stream, hence the acceleration.’

                Looking at the latest synoptic, why does the jet stream skirt around blocking high pressure?

                Do you think a meandering jet stream has created this blocking pattern?

                10

              • #
                Graeme Bird

                Awesome el gordo. Thats looks like progress. The others ought to get with the program. When you have an alleged paradox in science or a so-called mystery of science what you are really looking at is a taboo. Any mystery or paradox you could name. So we ought not think rapid warming of the stratosphere is any kind of mystery. Its only electrical energy buildup in a resistor like in your kettle. I haven’t been following climate much in the last 10 or so years. What I’ve been following is bad science taboos. It just sticks out so strongly when WXcycles brings in convergent evidence for what is going on. Three-way evidence. We only know anything through convergent evidence.

                So you start off with the impedance of the aether at 377 ohms. Ionised air molecules reduce this. Normal air molecules increase this except that polarised water molecules will reduce this. When the stratosphere warms up suddenly, we are looking for what happens in space and the troposphere before that, and what happens in the troposphere and the deep earth after that. Sending a laser down from a satellite can ionise the air, creating a line of increased conductivity, and so some weather manipulation is sometimes possible if the conditions are right for it. So you hear all this talk about Haarp manipulating hurricanes using this method.

                10

            • #
              WXcycles

              Graeme, talking ‘sciencey’ in all three dialects of [snip] does not make you interesting to people who want to use their brain to understand the natural world.

              [Please don’t make my job more difficult!] ED

              71

              • #
                Graeme Bird

                Failed debunking. Strip this man of his sciencey degree. Failed hypothesis. Failed debunking. When a group of science workers think they have gotten too big for logic then they are not scientists. They are a priesthood.

                38

              • #
                Graeme Bird

                No chain of conversion from one energy source to another. Total failure. Maybe try and get a job in the post office before you corrupt all the other kiddies.

                37

              • #
                el gordo

                Mr Bird, can vertical shear generate energy?

                ‘ … although the zonal wind speed in the North Atlantic polar jet stream at 250 hectopascals has not changed since the start of the observational satellite era in 1979, the vertical shear has increased by 15 per cent (with a range of 11–17 per cent) according to three different reanalysis datasets. We further show that this trend is attributable to the thermal wind response to the enhanced upper-level meridional temperature gradient.’ (Lee et al 2019)

                20

              • #
                Graeme Bird

                El gordo my explanation is up above. I hit the wrong reply button.

                22

              • #
                Graeme Bird

                After this nasty abuse that Epicycles [WXCycles] has taken I think we should all congratulate him for his discoveries of these correlations. It looks to be exemplary work. These correlations look to be important discoveries. Its a bit nasty to be having a go for him when his job would be on the line if he were to agree with me. 95% of the work looks to be done. I was only giving him a hard time for not taking things a little bit further. What can you say but “BRAVO.”

                36

              • #
                Graeme Bird

                El gordo just found your study and I think they have the right idea “The Circulation Response to Idealized Changes in Stratospheric Water Vapor” Thats the title of your study. So there has been changes to Stratospheric water vapour. I want to find out what the reasons are. I would have thought that jet engines would have a part. And that will change things. Since it will change the conductivity or the height of when some increase of conductivity will begin. So we would want to see if thats the reason for the cooling lower stratosphere. For less severe extreme weather events. For PERHAPS more frequent over some threshold of “extreme” weather events. For changes in wind shear of this or that persistent wind. All kinds of stuff may be related. But you are not getting a picture of things that makes logical sense without this idea that electricity is lazy and homesick, and its making its way down to earth, driving weather on its way.

                A few years back Alan Siddons and a couple of amigos took a look at the moon temperatures. Their source information is likely to be punishingly hard to get hold of these days because its pretty explosive news. They found that the Moon was about 40 degrees warmer than its supposed to be. 60 degrees hotter during the night and 20 degrees cooler during the day. Well with 20 degrees cooler obviously the rocks are absorbing and storing a lot of energy. But if there wasn’t a secondary energy source available you’d expect it to be something akin to 40 degrees cooler during the day and 40 degrees warmer during the night. You wouldn’t expect to have this energy discrepancy.

                But of course there is a secondary energy source. There is solar wind bombardment and a strong buildup of electrical energy going all the way from the corona to the moon.

                35

              • #
                el gordo

                Does your hypothesis explain Sudden Stratospheric Warming here on earth?

                ENSO remains an enigma, do you have any opinion on its behaviour?

                The meandering jet stream is a sign of global cooling and the blocking highs create weather extremes in both hemispheres. Theoretically, a quiet sun makes our wispy atmosphere shrink, forcing jet streams to meander.

                If we are serious about overthrowing the klimatariat, then we’ll need to have a unified theory on the meaning of everything before next Xmas.

                20

              • #
                Graeme Bird

                I would think so. Since its hard for the stratosphere to pass on its electrical energy, if there is some sort of powerful solar event and there aren’t the conditions to pass the energy into hurricanes, maybe that voltage buildup will express itself in terms of a warmer stratosphere. The electrical energy will find the easiest way but maybe the high pressure cell is in the way of that tall mountain or the path the jet stream is on doesn’t bring it above any dark clouds.

                The unified theory would be about what conditions would lead to the electrical energy going into volcanic explosions and earthquakes, or does the energy go into hurricanes or stormy weather. Does it go into suddenly heating up a section of the ocean. If electricity is lazy and homesick, then its got to figure out the easiest way home. And that will dependent on pre-existing conditions.

                But we are in a bind if we want to defeat these people by next Christmas. Because the people with the professional experience to do that kind of work are all there because they were able to accommodate all these taboos, pseudo-religious beliefs and proscriptions without even thinking about it. Next even if the incumbents came good the political pressure would then be whipped up to bring them into line. There is only so much you can talk about before you are looking for a job stocking shelves. Or chopping up invasive tree species in the hot sun.

                35

              • #
                Kalm Keith

                Keep going Graeme.

                It’s only a matter of time.

                🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

                40

              • #
                el gordo

                The Antarctic Oscillation (AAO) has been negative for a couple of months and the result can be seen in the droughty conditions in South Africa and Australia.

                https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/aao/aao_index.html

                Southern Stratospheric Warming is clearly related, do you think a quiet sun is involved?

                10

              • #
                Graeme Bird

                Its just a bit of a shame thats all Keith. If our side is to rely on fantasy physics it gives the trace gas hysterics the same license. I think we should try science. WXcycles magic photon theory is on the same scientific level as Arlen Specter’s magic bullet theory. Arlen Specter died and went to hell awhile back, without retracting. WXcycles will likely show the same loyalty to the scientific method. You would want us to be flying on two wings when it comes to scientific debates. But as usual we aren’t flying at all and both wings are broken. So we lose and we grow poorer. As much responsibility being on the anti-hysteria side of the argument as anyone else.

                Everyone should figure out how the Antarctic circumpolar current is even the least bit possible, as a mental exercise. Then they might wind up adopting a more realistic view of how things work. Bear in mind that almost the entirety of the Antarctic mainland is covered by an electrical insulator. This gives you a bit of an idea about these nasty wind storms in the snowy areas, when on the other hand people are meant to believe that hurricanes are powered by luke warm water. So you’ve got a whole continent electrically insulated by ice and water vapour deprived air. Where is all the electrical energy going to go?

                We want to get the big things right before we get too sophisticated in the analysis. Or people are likely to make a dogs breakfast out of it. They can get all the little things right and still sound implausible.

                21

              • #
                el gordo

                ‘Everyone should figure out how the Antarctic circumpolar current is even the least bit possible, as a mental exercise,’ said Mr Bird as he was escorted from the room.

                For anyone interested, here is a brief on the current.

                http://web.gps.caltech.edu/~andrewt/research/acc.html

                10

              • #
                Graeme Bird

                Donald Scott thinks he sees Birkeland currents at the Poles. Sometimes bringing extra charge in, sometimes releasing the extra charge to space. But that cannot be right. Nothing to see here. Solar photons doing the whole thing even in the Antarctic winter. These photons are funny things aren’t they? Never like where they are right now. Always running away. Created ex-nihilo and then decide that where they are is not where they want to be. Under the cult of personality physicists are brought up to think of themselves as superior individuals. But most of the time the only way to look at them is down.

                https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VkOLMEKAdl8

                21

              • #
                Graeme Bird

                Not much useful information there to solve the mystery is there though El Gordo? Cal-Tech will not solve the mystery of all that manifest pumping power for us. People will say? “Well there is no mystery. The winds create the current. All the energy is created by the winds.” Well you know. I have my doubts about that. Whether ALL the pumping power can be explained by the winds, and other interactions with the rest of the hemisphere. But even supposing that was true, you still want to know where that wind-energy is coming from. My understanding is that many of the winds are far more powerful in the winter, and that the current itself is still powerful in the winter. If so how is that magic photon theory doing for everyone?

                Such explanations as can be found for all that water pumping power amounts to a big fat case of normalcy bias. You can test it out by imagining if the current wasn’t there. Or more plausibly by imagining if the current were there but very weak. Lets say one tenth the power of the Gulf Stream. That would be realistic right? A weak circumpolar current makes a great deal of sense. So supposing the Gulf Stream was there but one fortieth its current power? You go up to these physics-boy 101 types and say…. “Why isn’t the circumpolar current 40 times its current power?”

                Well of course under that circumstance Physics fanboy 101 is going to look at you like you are crazy. And you would be crazy. Since there is no way they can explain its actual power with current physics taboo’s in place. You can listen to them talking about it for awhile and you can be momentarily satisfied. But ten minutes after the explanation is finished the problem has not gone away.

                21

              • #
                el gordo

                I’ll put this image up so we can all understand what a Birkeland current really looks like.

                https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Birkeland_current#/media/File:Schematic-of-combined-FACs-and-ionospheric-current-systems.png

                10

              • #
                el gordo

                Electric charge on the move.

                ‘BOM senior climatologist Robyn Duell said the warmer conditions we’ve experienced in 2019 was driven mainly by the very strong, positive Indian Ocean dipole and the negative Southern Annular Mode.

                ‘According to BOM, a dipole is two electrical charges, one negative and one positive. The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) describes how this band (electric charge) moves, either north towards the equator (negative) or south towards Antarctica (positive).

                ‘In a negative SAM phase, the belt of westerly winds expands towards the equator, shifting the westerly winds to the north in summer means less moist onshore flow from the east, and thus typically decreases rainfall over eastern Australia.’

                Northern Daily Leader

                10

              • #
                Graeme Bird

                Just great that Robin Duell is thinking in these terms whether he’s right or wrong. “If I have seen further it is by standing on the shoulders of Giants.” Some folks interpret that as Newtonian putdown on the physical stature Robert Hook. I prefer the motto of “seeing further by pushing down hard on the heads of recalcitrant dwarves.” Because most of ones understanding comes when you are arguing with people who have ran out of sane argument. WXcycles is no dwarf and in good time I’ll be going back to take in every word he’s written. A goldmine of excellent information. HIs combination of detailed observations with pure fantasy physics has helped me put this lingering nuisance of the circumpolar current to bed. Well at least its help me have a functioning mind model of what is going on.

                So in my model of what is going on you have negative charge being created at the earths centre. Which has a voided region, where the iron crystalline core is supposed to be. As you have to conclude with any rational analysis of gravity, up and down reverse at some point as you travel to the centre of the earth. It may even reverse three times but it reverses at least once. Anyway the negative charges generated at the centre end up rising up to meet the positive charges coming in from space. Ultimately from the sun of course. But not limited to daytime. But Antarctica is covered by an insulator. Thick ice insulation So the positive charges have no choice but to swirl around and around the continent scooping up any negative charges they can find. Negative charges will be more concentrated on the coast where there is no ice, then in most places on the planet. Since the full body of the continent is covered by an insulator.

                00

      • #
        Peter C

        Thanks David,

        Some interesting replies. A subject for further examination

        20

    • #

      Gordo sez:
      “‘The scientists say the influence of … ”

      I always start laughing after I read or hear “scientists say”.

      YOU struck out on your second word.

      Scientists say lots of thing — they are wrong far more often then they are right when discussing climate change, especially predictions of the future climate. Stop listening to scientists and start OBSERVING the climate around you.

      20

  • #
    el gordo

    Fishing for grant money.

    “We’re not suggesting that corals from the Gulf of Aqaba and the Red Sea could be translocated and reseeded in the Great Barrier Reef,” Professor Fine said.

    “We’re talking about hundreds of species, we’re talking about a very different environment and of course the vast size of the Great Barrier Reef suggests that it’s not very practical or feasible to reseed corals.” (ABC)

    90

    • #
      James Poulos

      Just how did those warm ocean corals survive I wonder… and why do they think ours are not?

      150

      • #
        el gordo

        This is the reason corals can survive in a very hot salty environment, sea level doesn’t fall.

        ‘In the Red Sea, the water evaporates at one of the highest rates in the world. Like a bathtub in a steam room, you would have to add water from the tap to keep its water level stable.

        ‘The Red Sea compensates for the large water volume it loses each year through evaporation by importing water from the Gulf of Aden—through the narrow Strait of Bab Al Mandeb between Yemen on the Arabian Peninsula and Djibouti and Eritrea on the Horn of Africa.’

        Viviane Menezes / Woods Hole

        90

        • #
          WXcycles

          BTW, the Persian Gulf is even hotter (and colder) and the corals there battle continuous hydrocarbon ‘pollution’ (who knows at this point, I bet I probably does them some good via some circuitous route) and somehow coral reefs continue to grow in th Persian Gulf.

          https://eoimages.gsfc.nasa.gov/images/imagerecords/38000/38384/persiancoral_l7_2002191_lrg.jpg

          As I’ve been saying for about the past 20 years, coral grows like a weed. We couldn’t permanently wipe it out globally, or even regionally, if we wanted to. If you put a new steal hull in the water and do nothing else in five years it’ll be covered in all sorts of life. Corals just do the same thing to any sunlight exposed outcrop on the bottom. Volcanoes have known what a pest coral-like lifeforms are for over a billion years already. The volcanoes erode away and the coral just keeps on growing regardless.

          It’s here, and it’s staying.

          Maybe a solar supernova can finally finish it off, but I wouldn’t bet on it, there are probably meteorites covered in migrating intergalactic coral spore from Andromeda. 😉

          80

      • #

        Poulos
        Here in the U.S., I’ve heard about the Australian corals dying since the 1960’s

        It’s amazing any are left to die.

        Actually, a secret Australian government program has been gradually replacing dead coral with plastic replicas since the 1960s.

        Like people might put in their fish aquarium for decoration.

        In fact, most of the so-called “coral” today are nothing more than plastic replicas — that’s why the government insists that people keep their hands off them.

        This is well documented, with 253 photographs, in a new 642 page study I read last night, while watching TV.

        30

    • #
      WXcycles

      “… it’s not very practical or feasible to reseed corals”

      This whole premise that it needs reseeding is shameless nonsense .

      150

  • #
    Travis T. Jones

    Great moments in climate science predictions in case you missed it …

    4 days until Britain is plunged into a Siberian climate –

    “A secret report, suppressed by US defence chiefs and obtained by The Observer, warns that major European cities will be sunk beneath rising seas as Britain is plunged into a ‘Siberian’ climate by 2020”

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2004/feb/22/usnews.theobserver

    140

  • #
    James Poulos

    Ahhh… I remember the good old days back in the late 60’s and early 70’s when the last catastrophic danger to the reef was the Crown of Thorns.

    Back then the scientific community consensus was for divers to retrieve the monsters – cut them in half to kill them – then throw them back into the sea much the same as the sage advice from old Greeks for completing good deeds.

    In watched this happen night after night – for this was in the times before the 24 hour news cycle – where the brave marine scientists would haul up these starfish in netted bags, cut them in two, then throw them back over the side of their various boats.

    Good sport what.

    150

  • #
    Travis T. Jones

    If only they had killed the cows the planet would be saved by now …

    Startling find adds to amazing story of powerful Greek figure

    “It’s an interesting scene of animal husbandry — cattle mixed with grain production.

    It’s the foundation of agriculture,” Davis said.

    “As far as we know, it’s the only representation of grain in the art of Crete or Minoan civilization.”

    “I think these are probably people who were very sophisticated for their time,” she said.
    “They have come out of a place in history where there were few luxury items and imported goods.
    And all of a sudden at the time of the first tholos tombs, luxury items appear in Greece.

    https://www.uc.edu/news/articles/2019/12/n20880507.html

    80

  • #
  • #
    TdeF

    The shennanigans of the US Democrats are incredible.

    They are trying desperately to interfere with both the last election and the next. The very thing of which Donald Trump stands accused.

    And former vice President criminally used his power to force the Ukraine President to stop investigation into a company in which his son was paid for that obvious reason.

    The DNC and Hilary Clinton sponsored a fake report on Donald Trump and conspired with the FBI to spy on the Trump campaign. The very thing Richard Nixon tried to do.

    It is past hypocrisy and criminality. And the press say nothing.

    340

    • #
      Another Ian

      TdeF

      “Biden says he wouldn’t answer subpoena in Trump impeachment ’cause his evidence “would let Trump off the hook” ”

      https://www.michaelsmithnews.com/2019/12/biden-says-he-wouldnt-answer-subpoena-in-trump-impeachment-cause-his-evidence-would-let-trump-off-th.html

      Out-weird that if you can

      170

      • #
        TdeF

        And FBI director Comey suggests lying 14 times in writing to the FISA court might have been a little naughty. Stating Donald and his team were a serious threat to the security of the country because of the ‘corroborated’ Steele dossier, which he knew was not corroborated. And also knew that the ‘corroboration’ was Steele leaking to the press.

        This is the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Court, specifically and controversially to allow the FBI/CIA to break the Fourth Amendment to the US Constitution only when investigating confirmed foreign spies operating inside the US. The FISA court is there to ensure that the spying is absolutely justified with evidence. To admit to lying is beyond belief. 48 people went to jail over the failed Watergate breakin. Comey was even wearing a wire when advising the President and his spies recorded Trump’s conversations in writing.

        He was there to please his friends, especially the expected new President, Hillary Clinton and the 98.4% of Washington DC people who voted Clinton.

        And what do the press have to say? That Comey admits to being naughty, after a judge found against him.

        210

        • #
          TdeF

          And what has the FISA court done about blatant lying on oath by the FBI to allow them to spy on the Trump campaign and Donald Trump personally? Absolutely nothing. This goes to the very reason and only reason the FISA court exists, to make certain this does not happen.

          170

        • #
          Peter C

          I suppose that the AG, William Barr, is going after Comey and others, via the John Durham investigation.

          It does seem to be a very slow process.

          60

          • #
            Serp

            “Glacial” is the term; hell might freeze over before proceedings are launched against the FISA conspirators.

            70

          • #
            Hanrahan

            The argument that they needed to get judges in place and to clean up the DoJ before proceeding might be true.

            No way would Hillary have been convicted in the system as it was in ’17.

            60

            • #
              TdeF

              And that secret meeting between Bill Clinton and Loretta Lynch, head of the Department of Justice on an aircraft? It was not the first time people suddenly dropped cases. And the seizure of Weiner’s laptop from the New York Police department when the head policeman said he would prosecute both Bill and Hillary over their many separate trips to Epstein’s island and the other information on the laptop.

              Nothing to see here folks. So much for the made up pee pee dossier. The laptop had all of Hilary’s work, bookings and emails, presumably from Weiner’s wife, Hillary’s live in friend for two decades. It all stinks. But it is all hidden by the CIA/FBI and the media mention nothing.

              100

    • #
      hatband

      Looks like Trump is going to be the Democrat candidate as well as the Republican candidate.

      Nixon wasn’t aware of the existence of the White House ”plumbers” at the time of their burglary of the Watergate in 1972, but he did instigate a cover-up after it blew up 6 months later.
      No FBI involvement, though if Hoover hadn’t died in May 1972, the whole thing would probably never have seen the light of day.

      50

    • #
      Dave in the States

      I was struck by the parallels to climate scam of the whole proceedings. Namely, they have made up their minds in advance, because it suites their overall agenda. The results are predetermined, and then they seek evidence to support their results. If they can’t find any, they make it up. Moreover, they constantly move the goal posts as needed.

      10

    • #
      Curious George

      I intensely dislike Mr. Trump, but he is still entitled to a due process. Being accused by an anonymous whistleblower, and witnesses interrogated behind closed doors, accepting hearsay or even a third-hand information – that would be inadmissible even in a small claims court. After all, he was elected President, and I am afraid that the Democratic establishment values the will of the people at much less than one hundred dollars. Parallels to Germany in 1933 are scary.

      That said, the function of a political party is to influence elections. But Democrats chose to play dirty, not clean.

      21

  • #
    Another Ian

    “Oreskes Vs. Oreskes”

    https://wattsupwiththat.com/2019/12/28/oreskes-vs-oreskes/

    “WUWT reader Max alerted us to a 1994 Naomi Oreskes et. al. paper published in the prestigious journal Science. Her paper was a critical analysis of Earth Science numerical models.”

    40

  • #
    • #
      David-of-Cooyal-in-Oz

      Thanks A I,
      A youth telling some home truths in just 3 minutes. Brilliant. Should be sent to all followers of St Greta.
      Cheers
      Dave B

      10

  • #
    Aussie Pete

    Sure it’s hot this time of year. Channel 7 in Sydney last night was screaching about N.S.W rocketing into the 40’s in the coming week. Even the BOM can’t match that meme with a few inland areas maybe just tripping the 40c wire.
    “Fake news” has morphed from “fact fiddling” to “fake forecasting”.

    190

    • #
      PeterS

      MSM has become a cesspool of exaggerations and total ignorance of history. Journalism a long time used to be about seeking the truth. It now has become the search for the most alarming news, fake or otherwise.

      200

      • #
        OriginalSteve

        its just a cesspool of fools….

        90

        • #
          PeterS

          A fool is just ignorant or dumb. Some are worse than fools. Some are dedicated to the destruction of our way of life such as those who follow the Socialist Alternative (Australia). They are evil because they follow Marx’s Socialism, which is inherently evil.

          130

          • #
            TdeF

            I suspect Marx meant well, but there was no other way. The world was a complete mess for poor people before WWII. How do you start from nothing? Only controlling the means of production.

            Meanwhile unemployment in Australia was 40%. In the US it was 25%. In Italy and Germany, who knows? And they did not count women in those numbers. Jobs were only for men, as they had to support a family and the women worked hard with washing, ironing, cooking, cleaning, education and with no dishwasher, no cold and hot water on tap, no vacuum cleaner, no washing machine, no dryer, no applicances, no miracle chemicals and surfaces for cleaning.. The work never ended from dawn to dusk. It never ended.

            However after WWII the war factories started producing white goods, cars, motorcycles, people had paid holidays, cash, savings, Britain’s revolutionary public health system and new things like television, microwave, hair curlers, pop up toasters, it was endless and so exciting. By 1960 the world was unrecognizable as it healed and cities like Warsaw and London were rebuilt from ruins. You can still see the 30% of London destroyed in old films, like the Lavender Hill Mob.

            Marx had never dreamed of consumerism itself, the serfs with money, but WWII had given people wages, jobs and real freedom and education. The serfs were gone. Women worked in paid jobs, drove cars, operated machinery, flew aircraft and could buy applicances. The washing machine was the greatest miracle after hot water on tap. It was all so very different to anything Marx could have imagined. Airconditioning was to come. Antibiotics changed life as your family did not die from simple infections.

            And the Left of politics want to take us back to utter serfdom while they are our masters. No. Not ever. Never.

            Trump, Johnson and Morrison are showing the way again, against the wailing Sanders, Corbyn and Shorten. Freedom and prosperity, not slavery.

            Now to deal with Climate Scientology. The UN attempt to rule the world, for themselves.

            150

            • #
              PeterS

              Murdering millions of his own people is not a sign of a man who meant well. He was evil, period.

              40

              • #
                TdeF

                When did Karl Marx do this? His own people? He was German. Marx died in London, buried at Highgate cemetery. He emigrated from Germany through France. He was a philosopher.

                I think you are talking of people like Lenin and Stalin and Mao Tse Tung and Pol Pot.

                20

              • #
                PeterS

                Yes you are correct. However their communist ideologies are virtually the same. Communism in practice is evil.

                20

            • #
              PeterW

              Marx understood that he was attempting to remake humanity into what he thought it should be, and that it would take an enormous amount of bloodshed.

              To argue that he “meant well” is to argue that he was supremely arrogant in demanding that we pay the price for what he wanted….. as do all his disciples.

              Socialism absolutely denies the value of the individual and the concept of human rights. It is not interested in our wellbeing, only the wellbeing of the Politically Correct groups.

              So no…. He did not mean well for most of us.

              Nor was the Great Depression to blame for Socialism and socialism had nothing to do with coming out of it.

              Everything you laud, was the result of Capitalism and the free market. It was capitalism that created a more COST-EFFECTIVE method of washing clothes than (mostly) female servants and slaves.

              20

              • #
                el gordo

                Socialism with Chinese characteristics embraces the free enterprise model and in their society they have four economic classes.

                Premier Xi is different to Mao and Marx was an accident of history.

                10

              • #
                TdeF

                Yes, I was contrasting the world before 1883 when Karl Marx died and the new world Karl Marx could not have imagined. Marx lived through a great period of total turmoil. The family changed their name from Mordechai to avoid pogroms against Jews. Marx as in Deutsch Marks. 1870 was the war between the new Weimar Republic and France, but it was the last of many wars.

                In the 1860s Germany was not a country and the wars were endless and death was everywhere. Not the 20th century when his philosophy was used to obtain absolute power and absolute evil. The 1860s in Germany was a period of great migration to escape the wars which followed Napoleon’s defeat at Waterloo. Karl Marx was born into this on the border with France. In this period Germans like the Marx family escaped to America, Australia, New Zealand, anywhere. Lutheran and Jewish and Catholic alike. And the three potato famines in Ireland, the clearances in Scotland. It was a time of despair and death and great upheaval. America is full of German migrants. In WWI and WWII, many American soldiers spoke fluent German and many great American generals have German names, like Eisenhower and Schwarzkopf.

                I do not hold any philosopher responsible for the misuse of the concepts but communism and socialism have proven to be a dream and there has been no socialist or fascist society which has not ended up up a massively murder*ous military dictatorship. That was not what Marx had in mind. Christianity too has been misused to justify war and conquest when it is a religion of peace.

                40

              • #
                PeterW

                Gordo…
                Socialism is the government control of production, distribution and exchange.

                It does not “embrace” Capitalism. It merely alters how and by how much, that control is exercised.

                The Chinese Socialists have permitted a certain degree of Capitalist activity, because they have recognised its superiority in wealth generation, and they need that wealth to fund their expansion and acquisition of power. That is toleration, not “embracing”, and if you look past the advertising, you will find that there are very firm limits indeed.

                This IS a totalitarian regime . Don’t doubt it for a moment. (Or you can ask Hong Kong.)

                30

              • #
                TdeF

                And it’s not as though England or America were models of peaceful coexistence. Slavery was still a fact of life in many countries. England and France launched their punitive war on Russia in the Crimean war 1853-56 and the United States did not exist, so we had the American Civil War from 1861 to 1865, the first really modern war with exploding shells and submarines and huge land mines.

                This was the time of Karl Marx, a terrible time around the world, almost as bad as the first half of the 20th century. In fact it was hard to find a country at peace and people wanted solutions, political solutions, social solutions, new philosophies. Marx had one, but it turned out in practice to be worse than the original problem. He never dreamed of a consumer society where the poor could have quality of life as we have today in Western Democracies.

                40

              • #
                el gordo

                HK belongs to the mainland, this strategic situation cannot be altered.

                Beijing is practicing a new form of capitalism, which embraces the free enterprise model because they have been international traders for 4000 years. The state run business organisations are being wound down.

                Should we stop trading with our biggest trading partner because its a totalitarian dictatorship?

                00

              • #
                el gordo

                The state owned enterprises are being reformed because Beijing recognises that the Western mixed economy works best.

                https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/201912/25/WS5e02b6e7a310cf3e355806e5.html

                10

              • #
                Curious George

                TdeF @7:22 “1853 .. the United States did not exist”. Please don’t learn history from Greta.

                10

    • #
      Yonniestone

      Its like Australians have never endured +40C days without Aircon or specially formulated lolly water, two Fridays ago I worked six hours 9 to 3 in 41C fully covered with a motorbike helmet on, I’m 51 years old and somehow survived along with over 6,000 others on the same day Australia wide many older than me.

      Their bed wetting fright bat antics is grossly un-Australian.

      180

  • #
    • #
      TdeF

      Wonderful graphs. What Global Warming? And the Unions want to down tools at 25C? That’s typically ridiculous. For most Australians, that’s a great night temperature.

      50

    • #
      OriginalSteve

      That is its intent…

      Bring on the Clinate Nuremberg Trials for all involved….

      50

  • #
    David-of-Cooyal-in-Oz

    Morning all,
    I’ve entitled this as “Window of opportunity” in my email to Jo and my state and federal politicians. It’s a brief summary of an idea.

    While this is definitely applicable in NSW it may have national relevance.
    The triggers for this idea are from the extensive bushfires still raging in NSW with the worst ones in, or emerging from National Parks and other public conservation areas.
    So far the press reports have concentrated on the damage done to homes and people, and not on the damage within the parks themselves. I suggest that that damage is huge and possibly catastrophic to plants and animals therein.
    But that produces an opportunity, to immediately start work on preventing a repeat performance in 10-20 years. Maybe even earlier.
    The burnt parks have effectively become cleared areas which could be organised to provide safe areas for future fuel-reduction burns.

    The Window is now open. The extent and severity of the fires has opened it, and work could start immediately both on addressing the bureaucracy and on the planning to renew or establishing fire trails through NPs etc.
    The Window will close. Regrowth will commence quite soon after rain and within a few (3 – 5) years will become almost impenetrable.
    What can be done. The unanimous(?) findings of all the past inquiries has been to reduce the fuel loads. Act on them, concentrating on laws and regulations down to Council level, particularly ones which prevent clearing on private property, or adjacent to it.

    This may be an original idea, but I’ve not done any searching for it, or similar ones, as I think it’s time to act, rather than spending the time exploring.

    Cheers
    Dave

    180

    • #
      Sambar

      Sadly, D of C, all the best intentions appear to result in nothing. A recent trip to Marysville, devastated by fire 10 years ago, shows this town has now essentially recovered and looks once again that picturesque little village in the forest, except of course it could all happen again. Regrowth is, as you say, impenetrable in many areas, roadside clearing virtually non existent and worst of all many houses rebuilt hard up against the forest. It appears we as a group of herd animals have difficulty learning lessons . devastated

      240

      • #
        PeterS

        History proves that we learn very little from history. We as a human race are domed to keep repeating many of the same mistakes.

        110

        • #
          Yonniestone

          Edmund Burke (1729-1797) “Those who don’t know history are destined to repeat it.”
          George Santayana (1863-1952) “Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.”

          50

      • #
        yarpos

        I guess if any fire is big enough it can devastate anything, however any new houses in Marysville will have to have had a Bushfire Attack Level survey on the block and be built in accordance with the outcome of the assessment. Marysville is probably the one town in Vic that could withstand an average bushfire without total loss.

        When we built our place in a nearby small town, well village really we dont even have a pub, we were assessed as the minimum level but built the place to the next level up. Since then we have cleared quite a few trees from our block so it should be lower risk than when assessed. I understand why people build in the trees and on hillcrests, I just wouldnt want to be them in summer regardless of what box they are in.

        80

        • #
          Annie

          It’s the disgraceful state of the roadsides that really bothers me. A lot of the new houses in Marysville are built to much better standards than before but some don’t appear very sensible, for all that. What happened to the RC’s recommendation of a good wide clearance of flammable growth around the entire town?
          Was there this morning.

          140

          • #
            Sceptical Sam

            Annie re: the roadsides.

            It’s an indictment of government that it (they) cannot even keep the main highways open let alone the main arterials.

            The Kings Highway from the ACT to Batemans Bay, NSW, has been closed for near on a month. The Princes Highway (the main north/south access way) was closed for near on three weeks. Many of the arterials have been or still are closed.

            Businesses are suffering. People are being forced to expend considerable additional costs on getting to their destinations. A 2 hours journey is taking 4.5 hours because of the closures.

            This is all a result of government negligence.

            Negligence due to their sucking up to green policy (ideology) around Crown land management strategies, residential planning schemes and interference in the management of private owned broad-acre land-holdings.

            Governments which can’t provide the minimal transport security and access are incompetent. They don’t deserve any support from the voter and taxpayer.

            God forbid the disaster that would rapidly unfold if this country were to be invaded by a determined enemy.

            60

            • #
              Kalm Keith

              A good piece.

              40

            • #
              yarpos

              It would certainly change the landscape around my way if they cleared back from road so that the tallest trees falling couldnt fall on a road. Would also provide firewood, mulch and wood chips for a few decades.

              30

          • #
            yarpos

            yep, about the only saving grace is that there are two ways out of the place (discounting out the back past Lake Mountain in the forest).

            10

            • #
              Annie

              We’ve a need to get to the hwy to start with. The neglect along our road is utterly disgraceful. It is poorly surfaced, rough-edged, full of scraggy unkempt highly flammable rubbish. As it’s heavily used by tourists, that makes the neglect particularly blameworthy.

              40

            • #
              Annie

              Just realised you were referring to Marysville, not our village.
              In 2009 there was a convoy out of Marysville to Alexandra…the people in it were lucky to make it. The fires came up to roughly the 60km boundery sign on the south side of our village. I found cooled embers in our west paddock a month later and preserved one to take back to England. I still have it, although it has now crumbled somewhat. Our daughter was evacuated from here for 12 days to a protected area in Rubicon.

              20

      • #
        David-of-Cooyal-in-Oz

        Thanks Sambar,
        My hope lies in the fact that there’s been a lot of comment in the press as well as here about the crucial role that fuel load plays in the severity of, and the resulting control of the fires. Add in the fact that so many enquiries have been held over such a long time into so many fires, and they’ve ALL recommended improved hazard reduction burning, and again all of those have been ignored, results in a climate where even our politicians might wake up. And perhaps they’ve looked at the fire map and seen that there’s nearly 850 kms of National Parks, stretching from Batemans Bay to the Queensland border on fire in the eastern fall country. With one of them being over 500,000 hectares as at today. Perhaps they’ll wonder how the word “unstoppable” became relevant…
        But then there’s the NSW environment minister, Matt Kean, wanting the state’s Chief Scientist to produce a report supporting more “renewables”, and my pessimism returns.
        Cheers
        Dave B

        70

    • #
      George4

      I suggest that that damage is huge and possibly catastrophic to plants and animals therein.

      I would have thought that before the arrival of humans to Australia, bushfires were much less frequent (the great majority of ignitions are human induced).
      So if species couldn’t cope with infrequent high fuel load fires, wouldn’t they have gone extinct long ago ?

      21

      • #
        PeterW

        George.

        May I suggest that you get out of the concrete jungle on a summer day, and look around. What you will see, is flammable material from horizon to horizon.

        There are undoubtedly enough natural ignition sources to light fires, and in any dry Australian summer, there is nothing to stop them.

        So when the bush is dry, it will burn until the next rain, or the next previous burn.

        So the average fire would be bigger, and the average hectare would burn just as often. There is no free lunch.

        20

  • #
    RickWill

    Global Heat Balance – January
    On January 5th 2020 the sun will be 147,091,000km from Earth. Insolation at sun’s zenith on Earth will be 1408W/sq.m. The sun will orbit directly above 23.4 degrees south latitude.

    The sun will literally bake most of Australia. Locations directly under the sun will have daily energy input totalling as much as 9kWh/sq.m. The land surface will reach temperature in excess of 50C.

    For the month of January, the Earth will ACCUMULATE solar energy at a rate of 8.2W/sq.m. The total increase in stored energy for the month will be 3.1EWh. That is enough solar energy STORED in a single month to meet the current energy needs of the entire human race for 207 years. Just to be clear, that is the energy STORED in a single month.

    All that energy is being accumulated in the oceans causing global sea surface temperature to increase by 0.13C during the month. The surface temperature of the Coral Sea in the western Pacific will increase 0.6C during the month as it is exposed to the full solar intensity. Some 3% of the stored energy will lift an additional 150Gt of water from the ocean surface into the atmosphere; cooling the surface as it transports the ADDITIONAL latent heat into the atmosphere.

    Throughout January, the outgoing long wave radiation will average 236W/sq.m for the month.

    Global cloud fraction will reach its maximum of 69% in January, reflecting 104W/sq.m of the incoming insolation.

    160

    • #
      Kalm Keith

      Interesting.

      40

    • #
      Peter C

      Excellent Rick.

      Are you getting your data from CERES satellites?

      We discussed some of this at the pre Christmas meeting, but in less detail. I have wondered before, why it is that the increased solar input at perigee (about now) does not show up in the global temperature record?
      I think you put it down to evaporation from the sea surface.

      90

      • #
        RickWill

        Peter
        All data is from NASA earth observations using the various satellites. I have found KNMI produce a monthly global figure for OLR, based on NASA (through NOAA) sourced data:
        http://climexp.knmi.nl/[email protected]&field=umd_olr
        This eliminates the need to do the averaging when using the NEO source directly. KNMI do not have any global average for water column so I still have to average the NEO data to get that figure.

        The global temperature is REALLY a meaningless number. The main reason for this is that the land and the atmosphere has next to zero heat capacity compared with the oceans. The sea surface temperature has a little more meaning but still only to the extent that when it is increasing, the heat content of the oceans is rising or when it is falling the heat content is falling. Fundamentally the water surface is where the “rubber meets the road” so a difference from period to period, in most circumstances, indicates a change in heat content.

        As noted in the post above, the globally averaged sea surface temperature will rise 0.13C during January. The sun’s view of earth is predominantly water while it is at its maximum intensity:
        https://www.google.com.au/maps/@-24.1689173,-147.1026827,9558062m/data=!3m1!1e3

        The sea surface temperature will rise till March then drop off a little till June but increase again till August before it begins to cool from August through to December. The reason it rises from June to August is the increase in SST off the coast of the northern continents as the meltwater enters the sea. I analysed this earlier:
        https://1drv.ms/u/s!Aq1iAj8Yo7jNg0lXWzyccVHItf34
        You can see that there is a massive increase in SST adjacent to the land. However this is not as saline as the water below so does not indicate the same level of heat input as a rise in SST in the southern ocean as it is being heated to greater depth. So sea surface temperature is not far from a meaningless number either.

        The best indicator of global warming or cooling is the average temperature of the top 2000m of the oceans.

        50

    • #
      robert rosicka

      Rick does this mean floods next year or the year after ?

      40

      • #
        RickWill

        With regard to floods, all I can predict with certainty is that there will be floods in Australia in the future; no idea when.

        Here in Melbourne it is almost as dry as a decade or so ago. We could use some summer rain but nothing promising with glorious highs lingering over us for days at a time.

        40

        • #
          ianl

          Rick

          >” We could use some summer rain but nothing promising with glorious highs lingering over us for days at a time”

          With the increased humidity from warming SST evaporation, the lack of rain is a really hard puzzle to answer. The hapless Andy Pitman (UNSW) recently canvassed that question and admitted the “climate scientists” were still completely clueless here.

          It’s one of the most salient factors underlining the bushfire conflagrations, the other major one being the unreduced fuel loads on the peripheries of the townships. [Reduced at great risk now by bushfire]

          Drought is actually the normal, with intermittent rain events.

          50

    • #

      Rick

      This snippet from the mail online talks of exceptionally warm water off new Zealand caused by sunshine and little wind

      https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7832431/Snowless-Moscow-warmest-winter-record.html

      70

    • #
      TdeF

      Of course that means CO2 levels will go up.

      10

      • #
        TdeF

        The IPCC want you to believe that CO2 is not in rapid equilibrium with the ocean where 98% of the world’s CO2 lives. They have no proof of this and it is the greatest single lie in the entire story. Of course it means that we humans can make little difference and absolutely no long term difference to CO2 levels. So best ignored.

        The IPCC argue that most of the CO2 is in the deep ocean and is somehow trapped in deep currents which take thousands of years to surface. Again, without any proof. A throw away excuse for denying reality and pushing man made CO2 levels. Thousands of years to absorb the CO2 apparently.

        In another place, one IPCC report gives the half life of CO2 as 80 years and scales all other ‘hothouse’ gases like methane from this. Again they give no reason or data to come up with this figure of 80 years. Perhaps ‘scientists say’?

        Back in the 1950s, it was expected the half life of CO2 in the air was 5 years or less. This in a Royal Society paper which has not been disproven. Still, if you want $1.5Trillion a year for nothing, you have to make something up.

        60

        • #
          TdeF

          As an analogy, I was fascinated with the ecological disaster which was the Exxon Valdez. Beaches and wildlife were covered with thick crude. Billions were spent on clean up. However a few years later it was noted that the beaches which were not cleaned were clear in roughly the same time, but who would have thought that?

          The world cleans up, especially biological material. It is food for something, especially bacteria and with a short lifecycle, bacteria adapt quickly. Where there is oil, there is energy and food is about energy.

          It reminds me also of a quote from a friend who is a physcian. Surgeons are dismissive of the idea that the body can heal itself, except after surgery.

          CO2 is as natural as breathing. And the whole world breathes. Our entire aerial and land biosphere is negligible compared to the oceans. We should be spending our $1.5Tn a year looking to improve energy sources, not just stop free CO2 production. And windmills are the complete opposite of free energy, as should be pretty obvious in Australia with now the world’s highest electricity prices. Even to politicians.

          100

  • #
    robert rosicka

    Something is wrong with the ABC , this story about endangered animals and building a massive fenced off Arc style habitat includes words like drought etc but nowhere can I find “climate change” .

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-12-29/mt-rothwell-geelong-saving-endangered-australian-native-animals/11751012

    70

    • #
      Lewis P Buckingham

      Probably because the most proximate cause of the extinction of small hopping native animals is the feral cat.

      40

  • #
    David Maddison

    I did the following exercise.

    I added up the total capacity of coal power plants in Australia as listed in Wikipedia = 24,767MW for 20 plants so average size per plant of 1,238MW.

    There are also 94 visually and audio polluting wind subsidy farms of total nameplate capacity of 5,679MW (representing 2,506 stinking windmills). Now, since the capacity factor is only 30-35%, this means the true total windmill output is just 1,703-1,988MW or a mere 18MW to 21MW per subsidy farm.

    Another way to look at it is the total true capacity of all Australian wind subsidy farms is only 37% to 60% bigger than just ONE proper power station.

    It hardly seems worth destroying our economy for, does it?

    131

    • #
      Dennis

      There is method in their madness David, when the list of economy destroying via UN Treaties and Agreements is compiled for reading as a timeline of history that becomes clear.

      For example UN Agenda 21 now Agenda 30: Sustainability. Land National Parks and Marine National Parks locked up and no commercial activity permitted. Now far more National Park land areas than affordable to manage whereas in the past revenue from State Forest logging paid for land maintenance. Minerals and energy reserves cannot be exploited for economic prosperity. Seafood cannot be harvested and is imported denying us the high quality local seafood or a small percentage of it harvested.

      Bans on exploration and extraction of oil and gas reserves, often coal mines denied development approval, etc.

      President Trump has lifted Socialist Democrat and UN related bans and has encouraged free market capitalism, and the United States economy is growing

      With Brexit underway and discussions being held to reunite Commonwealth of Nations for closer economic relations, trade, and the US and Japan wanting to join in, noting also that India is a quickly growing major economy and Commonwealth of Nations member, our PM scheduled to visit India in January 2020, now is the time for economy rebellion and telling foreigners including at the UN to go and annoy people somewhere else, do what President Trump has told them to do and stop interfering in the affairs of member nations.

      130

    • #
      PeterS

      Then there are some 2,500 coal fired power stations throughout the world plus several hundred more under construction or planned to be built. Makes our efforts to reduce CO2 emissions by closing down ours and replace them with other power generation systems look really stupid almost to the point of acting like a terrorist.

      110

  • #
    Dennis

    The timeline of socialism globalism climate hoax and crony profiteering …

    * Leaded petrol must be banned and replaced.

    So internal combustion engines had to be modified to accept unleaded petrol and then improved to get back to leaded performance over years.

    Oil refineries had to be upgraded.

    * Diesel must have sulphur content lowered to zero.

    So diesel engines had to be modified and improved over years.

    * Internal combustion engines are subjected to emissions reduction regulations, Euro Standards ramped up time and time again.

    So diesels were the first target and fitted with exhaust gas reticulation valves resulting in problems and expenses for owners.

    Next particulate filters required and more operating expense and problems, also making diesel engines a potential fire hazard as Euro 5 diesel particulate filters reach particulate burn off point, not the best for Australian country conditions of driving.

    * Hybrid Technology Electric Vehicles introduced to keep up with the ever increasing regulations regarding emissions.

    * Pure Electric Vehicles introduced and in some countries subsidised with ICEV penalised.

    Enormous infrastructure costs of demolishing liquid fuel outlets and then replacing them with recharge stations.

    ICEV fleets resale values drop to scrap value.

    * Ahead a ban on private ownership of EV, lease or hire only.

    The Australian Government has already allocated $300 million to lease companies to promote EV to fleet operators.

    State Governments are already planning an EV road tax to replace fuel tax revenue, and other levies to push the EV transition at state level.

    Next autonomous EV hire vehicles and permission to travel required or denied?

    Economic Vandalism!

    71

    • #
      Dennis

      Also, where will the electricity to increase baseload grid energy be generated as power stations are forced to shut down by governments primarily state and supported by federal?

      Does this matter to the politicians, are they in the majority plotting for far fewer private transport vehicles in future? I believe that they are.

      60

    • #
      PeterS

      * Ahead a ban on private ownership of EV, lease or hire only.

      In an ideal world such a move would actually be great. Of course we know we don’t live in an ideal world and such a move will bring with it lots of problems, just as the other moves already implemented have caused problems.

      40

    • #
      RickWill

      Dispersive use of lead was never a good idea. Lead is clearly a POLLUTANT with no level beneficial to living organisms.

      Atmospheric sulphur has no beneficial effects. It has been scrubbed from power stations exhaust streams for many decades.

      EVs would be a good idea if there were suitable batteries. Battery technology may never reach the required criteria to make EVs competitive with other forms of transport.

      50

      • #
        Graeme#4

        Since the current batteries have only around 10% of the energy density of fossil fuels, there seems to be an insurmountable gap between these fuel types, and I seriously doubt that any new battery will overcome this gap in the next decade.

        30

        • #
          Curious George

          A fuel cell would do – but we are not there yet. I hope for an inexpensive fuel cell running on ethanol. We run on bread, ruminants run on grass, tigers run on meat ..

          10

    • #
      hatband

      Even if the motivation was economic vandalism, getting rid of lead in petrol was a positive step, healthwise.

      Experts are still arguing whether Lead is the most toxic substance in the natural environment, proponents of Mercury or Arsenic as No.1 rank it at merely No.2 or No.3!

      20

    • #
      yarpos

      mmmmm it could be said that the early part of your list drove real improvement in efficiency a reducing emissions that matter. The latter points take a leap of faith/imagination to see as potential outcomes.

      I have been watching an old service station being demolished in Seymour VIC and wondering what they will do with it. The location is awash with servos and has a Maccas. Your post made me think it would be an ideal spot for a charging station. Just off the highway, somehwere to go while you wait, all will be revealed in the coming months. Someone pounced on it quickly which surprised me as remediating old servo sites is non trivial work.

      60

    • #
      hatband

      The Australian Government has already allocated $300 million to lease companies to promote EV to fleet operators.

      $300 million, eh?

      No wonder the big end of town doesn’t want to rock the Green Capitalism Boat.

      50

  • #
    dinn, rob

    don’t copy USA, here’s WHY
    Three companies manufactured 88% of the opioids https://aumladder.blogspot.com/2019/12/three-companies-manufactured-88-of.html
    ………………..

    20

    • #
      yarpos

      we dont make stuff any more, we will just import your opiods once we have screwed up the country with ICE just enough.

      30

      • #
        robert rosicka

        Used for nerve pain there is nothing that comes close to opioids and after 12 years I should know , however depending on the individual depends on the addiction and the pain suffered must be taken into account .
        Best pain relief I ever had was hippy heroin (oxy norm, oxy contin) , but highly addictive unless self aware when the pain eases .

        20

        • #
          yarpos

          That stuff makes me sick. Once when hospitalised with something painful, and out of Energency where they can morphine you , they suggest IV Panadol. My response was Panadol are kidding?? (probably wasnt that polite) and the nurse said trust its good stuff give IV. He was right, very effective and reasonably benign stuff. Only useful in hospital though of course.

          30

  • #
    David Maddison

    I’m sick of hearing of solar and wind subsidy farms rated by their nameplate capacity which has no bearing on their actual capacity. Even taking into account the more realistic capacity factor, because of the intermittent nature of production it is not highly useful or desirable power. The power rating should be only be based on actual randomly despatchable power which means what can be delivered 24/7 via a battery or other storage system. And it has to do that without the benefit of subsidies or forced purchase or other interference with free market mechanisms.

    150

    • #
      PeterS

      Well when I’ve recently heard the comment on Sky News that coal fired powered stations are not the way of the future because they are incompatible with renewables I was tempted to through a brick at the TV. A similar comment was made some time ago by some crackpot Germany study concluded nuclear power plants are incompatible with renewable energies. Meanwhile countries like China, India and Japan are ignoring such m00r0nic moves and building coal fired power stations in huge numbers.

      150

    • #
      yarpos

      Its really the best real world example of false equivalence I can think of

      40

  • #
    David Maddison

    Have you noticed how the Left are not calling wind and solar production “intermittent” much anymore? The new newspeak terminology they use is the much softer “variable” output.

    90

    • #
      Dennis

      The word “firming” amuses me, they don’t want to mention back up gas turbine and diesel engine generators, feeder transmission lines, batteries and all the support essential when “transitioning” to unreliable energy generators.

      80

    • #
      PeterS

      Expect the left loonies to start saying coal fired power stations should never be built because they are “incompatible” with renewables.

      61

    • #
      Serp

      Ungovernable sporadic generation is the more accurate term when referring to wind which suffers from the technically awkward fact that the energy delivered varies as the cube of the wind speed; without the massive revenue stream guaranteed by the green subsidy menace nobody would be giving a second’s consideration to the erection of these engineering absurdities. Or to the even more absurd EV fad where only sixty percent of the battery capacity is usable –don’t discharge below twenty percent and don’t charge above eighty percent. Then there’s solar which suffers similar boundary condition restraints upon its generation with efficiency diminishing rapidly as temperature increases. How is it that we’ve been stooged into taking these grossly inadequate technologies seriously? And for how much longer can this absurd situation obtain?

      110

    • #
      yarpos

      The left own the language and we tend to fall for it all the time. Like David I rarely use the word renewables when I do I say “so called renewables” in blogs in can have some impact and make people think especially if you elaborate a little.

      50

      • #
        Annie

        I say the same or substitute ‘ruinables’.

        60

        • #
          Greg in NZ

          Had four guests (two couples) from Melburnistan today – can usually pick (peek? puck?) NSW v VIC v WA accents and called it correctly, except I used the word ‘Melburnistan’ without thinking – ha!

          Sure enough, one of the guys was a rabid ruinables fan, expounding the benefits of South Australia’s “cheapest electricity in the world” and how one day this year – or was it one hour? – South Ozistan was “powered by 100%” ruinables.

          Thank goodness for excellent peripheral vision as I could see his wife, and the other couple, rolling their eyes as if they’d heard it all too many times before. Other than that, a marvellous day had by all.

          50

  • #
    David Maddison

    Is Australia the only country on the planet that is stupid enough to take a viable open cut coal mine as attached to the decommissioned (destroyed) Hazelwood power station and has plans to turn it into a recreational lake?

    120

  • #
    Dennis

    How to drought proof Australia.

    The NSW Coalition Government recently entered into an agreement with Israel to share technology on dry country irrigation and have announced a plan to convert open coal mine its into lakes for water storage, claimed that they would be filled over three years of average rainfall.

    But bigger still would be to proceed with the CSIRO identified potential irrigation farming area about the size of Western Europe.

    Extend the Lake Argyle WA Ord River Irrigation area across Northern Australia through the NT and into NQ.

    The Abbott Federal Government and the Newman Queensland Government cooperated and successfully overturned Labor’s Wild Rivers legislation that had blocked development of dams and irrigation projects. The project would be one of the largest nation building projects in our history. Water could be also harvested from the dams, and excess wet season rains, for southern usage, canals or pipelines. The Ord River Dam releases several Sydney Harbours of water every year into the ocean.

    Consider that such a vast irrigation area would become a food bowl with enormous export potential. There would be new roads, railway lines, airfields, towns and businesses to service the people on and off the land, and create thousands of new jobs.

    But would the socialist globalists allow this to happen, would our politicians finally ignore those foreigners and do what they are elected to do, serve in the best interests of the Australian people?

    40

    • #
      hatband

      The ”Food Bowl” trope is not credible.

      If the north was fully irrigated, the most likely crop would be cotton, which is not labour intensive, is exported overseas where it’s processed in low wage countries, then if it comes back at all, comes back as a product too expensive for most to afford.

      Meanwhile, Australia has stumped up colossal amounts of money to build it, and receives few of the benefits, while Australians pay the bill forever and a day.

      20

    • #
      yarpos

      I cant imagine how many sacred sites and homes of the frilled neck speckled warbler you would encounter doing such a project. The protests , the Bob Brown memorial drives, approvals, appeals , people with purple hair chained to dozers. I think in the current insane world it not a project anyone would want to bid on.

      50

      • #
        hatband

        There’s a lot of land up there that could, and should be improved for grazing beef cattle and sheep.

        Pasture raised meat is what sells for the big bucks in Europe and North

        America, though when shifty politicians talk about a Food Bowl, they’re more

        likely to be thinking about ways to enrich their mates in the Agricultural

        Chemicals business and laying the groundwork for their after-politics career.

        20

    • #
      DOC

      It’s all about assured food supply. The Chinese aren’t mad. They’ve invested (bought) in the
      Ord extension totally. Price for them is not an object. They have the largest population in the
      world to feed and are buying up Australian agricultural land wherever they can. China’s main
      problem – for the government – is preventing national disintegration through uprisings, having
      tasted good incomes. Hence its switchback from opening up to deep and tight controls on people.

      In the ’70’s there was around 4billion world population. Today there is around 7billion. In the
      70’s the world was cooling and the scientists warned of mass starvations. Saved by warming, CO2
      and genetics. Any warming can be said to be life saving; not threatening. People need to wake up!

      The world will cool again as usual. The oceans will take up CO2. That’s when the politicians will
      wake up to truth, but too late. China is running ahead of the story. It’s almost as though they
      have implicit trust in the solar scientists warning of an overdue cooling. They want coal; as much
      as they can get. And they want assured food supplies. They work on long term vision, not tunnel vision
      and the next election which they don’t have to worry about.

      20

  • #
    David Maddison

    It’s tragic the amount of scientific, engineering and economic resources being wasted to solve the non-existent problem of anthropogenic climate change.

    Imagine if these same resources were employed to solve real problems or do other useful things.

    110

  • #

    I shake my head with puzzlement as to why this is so unimportant that no one in the media anywhere even bothers with it. I dread to think what will happen when someone finally does latch on to it.

    At 4.25AM this morning, nearly everyone was tucked up tightly in bed, asleep.

    The Country outside of their bedrooms, the WHOLE COUNTRY was consuming 18075MW of power.

    that’s Eighteen THOUSAND MEGAWATTS

    The five States were consuming 179890MW in this makeup
    NSW – 6160MW – (34.43%)
    Qld – 5360MW – (29.96%)
    Vic – 3940MW – (22.02%)
    SA – 1440MW – (8.05%)
    Tas – 990MW – (5.53%)

    So, Nobody is doing anything, and the Country is still consuming 77% of average daily power consumption.

    Rooftop solar power is delivering ZERO of that.

    Commercial solar plants are delivering ZERO of that.

    Wind Power is delivering 610MW or 3.4% of that.

    Hydro power is delivering 3.5% of that….. (So, the total from ALL renewables in Australia, EVERY SINGLE ONE of them, totals our at 6.9%)

    Coal fired power power is delivering 15740MW of that, or 87.1%.

    Later of this evening coal fired power will ramp up to around 18000MW, then ease back to 16000MW around 4AM Monday, ramping up to around 19000MW at 6PM Monday night, and will do that, day in day out, as it has been doing for the last almost 45 years.

    At no stage ….. EVER will that minimum power consumption fall lower than 18000MW

    At some time this afternoon, rooftop solar power will be totalling out at around 5000MW, almost 65% of its Nameplate, 65% total at the height of Summer no less. That 5000MW will be supplying the millions of teensy weensy little consumers, those homes which have those panels on their roofs, and only those homes.

    The wider community, the whole of the rest of Australia will be consuming around 20000MW of power, NONE of it coming from rooftop solar power.

    However, without doubt, far and away the single most important thing of all is that while everyone does absolutely NOTHING, sound asleep, Australia consumes …..

    EIGHTEEN THOUSAND MEGAWATTS

    Until someone tells that to the public, people will just keep right on thinking renewables can power the Country.

    The can’t and they won’t ….. EVER.

    Tony.

    360

    • #
      David Maddison

      Thank you for your constant attention to this matter Tony.

      120

    • #
      PeterS

      The only way renewables supporters and much of the rest of the population who are undecided will ever fact reality is when more of our base load power generators are closed down. Then and only then will reality bite. It’s really a sad indictment of both our major political parties who are more concerned about reducing our emissions than protecting our base load power generations systems, especially where we have other countries building hundreds of new coal fired power stations. Both parties are boasting how their energy policies will help reduce our emissions in the hope of having an impact on climate, which we know they will have a big fat zero impact. It’s as though Australia believes we can save the planet from CAGW all on our own. In any other area or discipline that sort of thinking and action would be considered an act of insanity requiring immediate assistance. In some quarters it would be considered an act of terrorism. Yet we continue to follow our masters thinking all is OK. Let’s see what happens when our aging coal fired power stations need serious upgrades or replacement if they are to continue, amounting to billions of dollars.

      80

      • #
        yarpos

        Agree Peter, fundamentally they need to be smacked in the face by reality, and really the sooner the better for everyone.

        60

      • #

        PeterS

        what has been happening (very quietly mind you) is that those still existing coal fired power plants have all been undergoing major overhauls (with Upgrades) over the last three to four years.

        You can tell.

        Maintenance during those benign Months of Autumn and Spring sees individual Units shut down for two, three days at a time, and then, as they come back on line, another Unit at another plant, sometimes even in another State goes down for its three days or so. they all get done on a rotational basis. There has been times when anything up to 14 of those Units have been off line during those benign Months.

        However, you can see that some Units are off line for a lot longer. They will shut down around two weeks prior to the end of the peak Seasons (Winter and Summer) and they are off line for Months, not just days, or a week or so, but many long Months. That is Overhaul time, and long term heavy Overhaul is there for one reason only, to extend the life of the Unit, because once I notice it, and then go looking around in local news media releases, I can find that at the same time they are doing those overhauls, they are also performing Upgrades as well, and that most definitely IS an extension of the life of the Unit. And those Upgrades are more prevalent than what you might think, three them of this past Spring.

        They are doing this in each of the three States which still have coal fired power. They recently did an Upgrade to the plant at Kogan Creek, and you seriously have to wonder why they would even bother doing an UPGRADE, not just maintenance, or even an overhaul, but specifically quoted as an Upgrade, to a power plant Unit that is only 12 years old, one of the youngest coal fired plants in the Country. (incidentally still running at a Capacity Factor of 85% after those 12 years.)

        All of this is happening quietly, and even though it is happening in the open, the wider media would by utterly clueless, because they really have no idea what they are looking at. To them, when a coal fired Unit goes off line, it’s a sign that they are just hopelessly unreliable.

        It’s happening, and when the time comes when rational thinking returns, those coal fired power plants will still be capable of delivering power like they always do.

        Tony.

        170

        • #
          Dennis

          When rational thinking returns?

          NSW is re-introducing teaching the basics in state education in 2020, the longer term plan the Federal Coalition announced when they agreed to support Labor’s Gonski education grants agreement reached with State Governments commencing 2013/14 financial year. The agreement to fund Gonski if elected to government by the Abbott led Coalition Opposition was not guaranteed beyond Budget Forward Estimate Years.

          I am not aware of this happening in the other states?

          20

        • #
          New Chum

          Kogan Power Plant uses 2-3 million tonnes of coal per year from its own mine which has reserves of 400 million tonnes and another two leases according to the fact sheet.

          100

  • #
    Furiously curious

    Stewart Brand’s “The Whole Earth Catalogue” was pretty much the original hippie ‘how to guide’ in the 60’s. He went seriously into renewables, before switching to nuclear. Influenced Michael Shellenberger, maybe James Hansen??

    From his 2009 book “Whole Earth Discipline”

    To replace 13 terawatts of fossil fuel power, of the 16 terawatts we currently produce (2009?) over the next 25 yrs with non fossil fuels, will require according to Saul Griffith, a materials scientist :-

    2 terawatts of solar @ 15% efficiency requires constructing 100sqm every second for the next 25 years = 30,000 sq miles
    2 terawatts of solar thermal @ 30% efficiency requires 50sqm every second x 25yrs =15,000 sq miles
    2 terawatts of biofuels = 4 Olympic swimming pools of genetically engineered algae, every second x 25yrs = 1,500,000 sq miles
    2 terawatts of wind. That’s a 300’ turbine, in a good wind location, every 5 minutes = 105,000 x 25 yrs = 2,600,000 turbines.
    Build 3 100 megawatt steam turbines a day = 1095 x 25 yrs= 48,000
    3 terawatts of new nuclear = one 3 reactor, 3 gigawatt plant every week = 52 x 25 yrs = 1300.
    When you’re done, you have an area about the size of Australia, not counting transmission lines, energy storage, materials, and support infrastructure; then there are the costs of shutting down all coal plants and oil refineries.
    How are we doing?

    From Stewart Brands’ ‘Whole Earth Discipline’ p14

    110

  • #
    David Maddison

    Here’s a rare concession to common sense.

    The much touted solar thermal power tower in South Australia was quietly cancelled.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-04-05/solar-thermal-plant-will-not-go-ahead-in-port-augusta/10973948

    120

    • #

      Tell me again how renewables are so cheap?

      This was going to cost $650 Million.

      It had a Nameplate of 125MW.

      It was hoped to have a Capacity Factor of 38%, (modelled, mind you) but not one of these solar plants in the World is averaging much more than 30%.

      So now we have the average power generation (actual power delivered) of 38MW.

      For only $650 Million.

      And the quoted eight hours of heat diversion, give me strength. They just do not deliver on this, ever.

      Models claims, and rhetoric is all they have, and the ABC falls for it hook line and sinker, because they so desperately want it to be true.

      It seems that the people who get asked for the money actually seek out the truth of those claims eh.

      Tony.

      250

      • #
        Hanrahan

        When being touted I read of a molten salt concentrated thermal tower in Spain at almost identical lat N. It had trouble just keeping the salt molten for some months a year, let alone producing.

        120

        • #

          That plant, Gemasolar, touted as being a 24 hour Concentrating Solar Plant, and pointed to with pride as the way of the future, could generate just 20MW, did that on a 24 hour basis for 36 days, and is shut down for three Months of the year. It achieved that 36 days consecutive power once, in 2013, and not since.

          It is currently operating at a Capacity Factor of 45%, so effectively, that makes it a 9MW power plant.

          The total generated power across the whole year is around 80GWH, you know, the same power delivered by Bayswater in a day and a half.

          And it only cost $AUD152 Million in 2011 dollars.

          Tony.

          200

      • #
        Another Ian

        Tony

        “and the ABC falls for it hook line and sinker,”

        I reckon you can include line and rod in that and a lucky fisherman to escape

        90

      • #
        PeterS

        My hope at the moment albeit slim is one day mature thinking adults take control of asylum Australia and we start building both coal and nuclear power stations to promote growth in a variety of industries, present and future. The alternative is too horrific to contemplate.

        41

    • #

      It was profitable for all kinds of tech and legal people, as well as general consultants, climate preachers and the like. And it’s not like money actually exists till you go to pay it back. Of course, we have do have to pay our central bankers to run back and forth between the pixies who make money appear as needed. They drop a lot of the new money as they go. Clumsy things. But like I said, it’s all just phantom money till you go to pay it back. It’s called quantitative liquidity supply easing stimulus…or something like that. You have to ask an economist. If you give him some non-existent money he’ll explain about quantitative liquidity supply easing stimulus stuff.

      So you have a solar thermal tower which should not exist (because it’s yet another non-hydro renewable and thus totally lame) and which is projected, cancelled or funded using money which doesn’t exist. What’s the fuss? Nothing can go wrong until you have to pay it back or till the pixies stop their quantitative liquidity supply easing stimulus thingy. And that’ll never happen, right?

      70

  • #
    David Maddison

    The Left’s war against proper education over the last fifty or so years has paid off. Scientific ignorance, even among many recent science graduates, is at an all time high and general knowledge and historical knowledge is at an all time low. A lot of people today don’t even know anything about WW1 and WW2, if they have heard of them at all.

    70

    • #
      Serp

      Yep. We continue our plummet down the PISA ratings; the time can’t be far off when we withdraw from that OECD arrangement and quietly abandon the wasted funding of our travestied public education system altogether.

      50

  • #
    pat

    robert rosicka – comment #14 – posted an ABC article on animals that didn’t mention CAGW. it is an anomaly. especially in the ABC’s holiday season, it is as if only programs that mention CAGW have been chosen for repeat broadcasts:

    12m30s in: Ann Jones: think of how rapid the changes are in the environment for animals & plants at the moment – development, clearing, human population explosion, introduced pests & threats, (?) food resources, (VOICE TRAILS OFF…CLIMATE CHANGE)…

    AUDIO: 25m15s: 28 Dec: ABC Off Track: Cockies wheelie love bin day
    Presenter: Ann Jones
    For RN Summer we’re playing the best programs from the last year, this one first aired in August, 2019.
    All over Australia, the environment is changing faster than animals and plants have ever dealt with before.

    But some species are able to innovate to access new resources and also to learn from others’ innovations and these abilities could have a real impact on their long term survival.
    In this case, the animal is the sulphur-crested cockatoo and the innovation is learning how to open a wheelie bin. Sounds silly, but this is serious science.
    FEATURING:
    Dr Lucy Aplin, Research Group Leader, Max Planck Institute for Animal Behaviour.
    Dr Barbara Klump, Post Doctoral Researcher, Max Planck Institute for Animal Behaviour.
    Off Track listeners Margaret and Coralie with a cast of hundreds of cockies.
    https://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/offtrack/clever-cockies-bins-and-sins/11697172

    AUDIO: 13m50s: 28 Dec: ABC Saturday Extra: Geraldine Doogue: The Australian rat predicting our climate future
    With its fate tied to our changing climate, the native long-haired rat is an unlikely ‘canary in the coalmine’ for Australia.
    First broadcast in August
    Guest:
    ***Tim Bonyhady, environmental lawyer and cultural historian, author of The enchantment of the long-haired rat: A rodent history of Australia.
    https://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/saturdayextra/long-haired-rat/11765902

    ***ANU: Professor Tim Bonyhady
    Professor Tim Bonyhady is one of Australia’s foremost environmental lawyers and cultural historians.
    His first major legal book, The Law of the Countryside: the Rights of the Public, focused on British law. Otherwise his domain has been Australian environmental law, focusing on property rights in Environmental Protection and Legal Change; on third parties in Places Worth Keeping: Conservationists, Politics and Law, and on climate law and environmental impact assessment in Climate Law in Australia, Adaptation to Climate Change and Mills, Mines and other Controversies…
    Tim has also been an advisor to Commonwealth and State inquiries into environmental law…
    Appointments
    •Director, Australian Centre for Environmental Law and Director, Centre for Climate Law and Policy…
    https://law.anu.edu.au/people/tim-bonyhady

    22 Aug: Guardian: For the love of rodents: why Australia should be enchanted by its long-haired rat
    by Naaman Zhou
    The rat is an “entry point” into other worlds, (ANU Professor Tim Bonyhady) tells Guardian Australia…
    For one, the rat is an easy marker of climate, drought and environmental change. Their populations grow and shrink with the rains, in thrall to El Niño and La Niña…

    40

  • #
    pat

    another example – no need to listen:

    AUDIO: 54m 7s: 29 Dec: ABC: God Forbid
    Presenter: James Carleton
    This episode first went to air on 14 October 2018.
    Climate change might seem like a distant concern for many in the West, but in the Pacific it is a looming existential crisis. Rising sea levels are having a religious impact too.
    More Information:
    LINK Listen to Religion and Ethics report: Pacific nations vulnerable to climate change.
    Guests:
    Rev Dr Seforosa Carroll is a minister in the Uniting Church of Australia, working with UnitingWorld in theological research and Church Partnerships, Australia and the Pacific.
    Steven Maaelopa is an education co-ordinator with Baha’i children and young adults.
    https://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/godforbid/heaven-on-earth:-religion-in-the-pacific/11781682

    28 Dec: ABC: Tasmania set for heatwave culminating in predicted lightning storm
    By Alison Costelloe
    But as the Bureau of Meteorology’s (BOM) Alex Melitsis explains, there isn’t a particular temperature which has to be surpassed to declare a heatwave.
    A heatwave is a period of three days or more when the maximum and minimum temperatures are unusually high for the location.
    “It depends on the general climate of the place as well as the recent temperatures,” Mr Melitsis said.
    “We’re more acclimatised to the lower temperatures so a hotter day here really has a big impact on us.”
    Temperatures that meet the criteria for a heatwave at the end of summer will also generally be hotter than the temperatures that meet the criteria for a heatwave at the beginning.
    The BOM categorises heatwaves three ways — low-intensity, severe and extreme.
    Low-intensity heatwaves are the most common and people generally cope with them.
    Severe heatwaves are less frequent and put more vulnerable people, such as the elderly, at risk.
    The heatwave hitting Tasmania, which is also affecting the mainland, is in the severe and low-intensity range.
    Extreme heatwaves are rare and put everybody at risk, even the healthy.
    In the last 200 years, according to the BOM, severe and extreme heatwaves have cost more lives than any other NATURAL hazard in Australia…READ ON
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-12-28/heatwave-bearing-down-on-tasmania/11829112

    20

    • #
      robert rosicka

      Remember was it last year they had a heat warning for 26? Degrees in Tasmania ! Looks like they’ve learned their lesson .

      00

  • #
    WXcycles

    Annotated jet map:

    376 km/h @ 34,000 ft almost reaches from Antarctica to the southern tropics.
    https://i.ibb.co/5xP9cHp/a-Screenshot-2019-12-29-Windy-as-forecasted-1.png

    Annotated temperature map:

    The effect of this jet on cold-air displacement northward at 14,000 ft.
    https://i.ibb.co/zQ91vPQ/b-Screenshot-2019-12-29-Windy-as-forecasted-6.png

    Plus another 400 km/h jet was forecast for the southern Tasman Sea within last night’s ECMWF.

    397 km/h subtropical jetstream @ 34,000 ft, Tasman Sea
    https://i.ibb.co/w4tGdRx/397-kmh-Southern-Tasman-34-000-ft-Screenshot-2019-12-28-Windy-as-forecasted.png

    80

    • #
      el gordo

      Can we still say the southern jet is showing increased speed?

      30

      • #
        WXcycles

        It’s not been a slow increase in the south Gordo, it’s been a sharp rise. The north has been slow though, it’s been pegging between 404 km/h and 410 km/h max levels for 4 weeks.

        When I first noticed it in the southern hemisphere on the 4th of Dec the highest speed I found forecast back then was 346 km/h (~120 km higher than it should have been). It rose to ~375 km/h about a week before Christmas. I’ve now seen 3 forecasts of ~400 km/h during the first week of Jan near southern Australia and the Tasman. ~375 km is fairly common in the Southern Indian ocean. There’s no indication the rise is flattening. It’s up in other SH regions but not as high. It’ll be interesting to see if observations reflect that next week.

        The northern hemisphere is not rising in speed, early on I saw 404, 406, 410 and then 408, 406, 409 spread over 4 weeks, except the effect has migrated eastwards between the Pacific then Atlantic, then showed up with in both at once, especially on either coast of the USA. But I’ve also seen 400 km just west of Spain and southern France. What is changing is increasing depth and moving around vertically more as that depth expands. Plus the peak may not be rising but the winds towards the periphery around the central 34,000 ft altitude mark are getting stronger now. Thus the volume of the flow is increasing and the total energy being moved around the the NH.

        Similar to that is occurring in the south-hem. In fact that first image listed above, when seen a 30,000 ft, it combines with the polar-jet under it, and that actually travels a couple of hundred miles over to the icesheet SSE, before pulling up -45 C air and firing it due north towards the southern tropics. Yet below 18,000 ft within that same massive jet, the air goes inland over the icesheet then turns west (full of lower-troposphere humidity) and creates a summer coastal region blizzard with it right down to sea level (if I saw a jet like this one in mid-Winter I’d still be impressed).

        Thus, IMO, the southern hemisphere is an even more interesting situation, and is changing quickly. What amazes me, is that when you look below it, its much like a summer should be, just the southerly flow on to Aust and NZ is a bit cooler, when it’s present.

        Personally I think the intruding cold air has just begun to fully encounter the subtropical jet during December, and the cold air has stacked-up in depth south of the jet, within the upper levels. Thus the depth of the jet got both much deeper and faster as that occurred.

        Perhaps the speed does not go much above 410 km/h from here and they just get deeper and broader with longer north south legs to the ‘kinks’ – which would be consistent with Stephen Wilde’s view of longer steeper meridional kinks. I’ve been meaning to go read his stuff again, downloaded it, just got to go read it soon.

        However, the jet is just the distributor which delivers the cold influx, and I think that’s what Stephen said as well, if I remember he said the donor of the cold was ozone related … which is a stratospheric gas. So I see little that’s incompatible there either. This may or may not make for net increase in cloud’s shading and net albedo increase (the cold air is very dry). Not convinced about that, maybe. Definitely can expect more snow fall in real Winters to come if the stratosphere is donating the cold.

        Re the cold-dry air injections moving north, the reason the potential cyclone off the Pilbara coast fizzled is obvious when you look at the very low humidity air at all tropo levels being thrown towards the tropics during this coming week, by a huge cold-dry surge moving up the WA coast, almost to the equator. Seems the jetstream spared Dampier/Karratha a direct hit.

        70

        • #
          el gordo

          Ozone maybe a major player, involving the QBO and ENSO, the complexity of the system is mind boggling.

          https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2019JD030435

          ‘ … which is a stratospheric gas. So I see little that’s incompatible there either.’

          It all seems to fit. The formation of low cloud is a test case for the two main schools of thought, my guesstimate is that both are significant and work in tandem.

          10

          • #
            WXcycles

            Yeah, I read some of Stephen’s comments over at WUWT last night, he clearly thinks added clouds are a key secondary coolant player, which ultimately shades oceans and brings a warming phase at least back to a ‘hiatus’, at a lower level for a time, if not into longer-term cooling driven by maintained stratospheric cold input driving extra clouds from there.

            I’m with him on the stratospheric cooling input part, I think that’s key, but a NET cloudiness increase remains to be seen. Certainly more snow and sea ice, which lasts for for longer around the poles.

            One of the implications of sinking cold dry air onto the pole is that ANY humidity that’s sucked into the higher latitude region by surface and mid-level wet lows will not escape. It will end up on the icesheet and will be frozen in, with less chance of significant melt in Summer. It would not take long to build deeper longer glaciers. This would build some very deep mobile (deforming) ice within only 1,000 years. Accelerated stratospheric cooling makes the most sense as to how it comes about.

            I’ll upload a series of images within the next ‘unthreaded’ to show the sinking cold-dry air currently falling out of the bottom of the polar Stratosphere into the troposphere so people can see that this actually routinely occurs. The question is, is the rate and volume variable, and what would make it vary?

            When I first posited sinking stratospheric air I envisioned a much broader area that sinks very slowly from a bit higher up. But when I went and looked for that in observational data trends I instead found smaller areas that are more dynamic and sink faster, from much lower down in the polar lower stratosphere, originating from under the polar inversion altitude (about 42,000 ft). Which may admittedly be due to either a longer-term sinking process and/or an early spring SSW, which would fade soon, or maybe some of both (unlikely). Time will tell but the late-August-early-Sept SSW event as causation option is a bit old at this point.

            30

          • #
            WXcycles

            Stratosphere‐Troposphere Exchange Relative to the Subtropical Jets
            Mark A. Olsen Gloria L. Manney Junhua Liu
            First published: 14 June 2019 https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JD030435

            “… On regional scales, the ozone sensitivity to ENSO associated with tropopause folding is strongly positive in some regions and strongly negative in others, which largely cancel in the hemispheric mean. …”

            i.e. approx no net effect, and if there is one it’s isolated to near the tropopause from +/- 40 deg from the equator.

            Their terminology of “folding” across the tropopause was interesting, that’s a good way to describe it, as hot air rises into the lower strat is then collapses and folds and thus mixes mid and upper-tropo air into lower-strato air, and the colder lower strato air into the tropical and sub-tropical upper tropo air, as far south as the top of the STJ. By ‘folding’ in they mean like folding in the ingredients of a cake mix in a bowl, only its air being folded. The result is patches of still wet air that have been cooled to -70C, but are seen in the top of the troposphere. Which presumably are then relatively enriched with ozone from the strato-air that was ‘folded in’.

            I’ve currently identified 3 ways in which the lower stratospheric air enters both the polar and mid-latitude Hadley Cells. One of the three infiltrations of cold strato-air mechanisms involved the currently much vertically expanded deeper STJs interacting, through the mid-lat tropopause via wave (folds) with the lower stratosphere, at around 35 to 40 deg south latitude region (above and just north of the STJ). I’ve captured screens which show all three of those mechanisms occurring within the initiating observations at the start of yesterday’s ECMWF run. I’ll post them in the next unthreaded.

            20

  • #
    Travis T. Jones

    2019 was the year [global warming] charted

    “How musicians from Billie Eilish to Lana Del Rey are grappling with [global warming]”

    https://www.theverge.com/2019/12/19/21028133/climate-change-music-2019-charts-billie-eilish-lana-del-rey-playlist

    Whoa! Wait. What?

    Wrong. Climate has been written /sung about since forever. Here are 3 recent examples:

    Kansas Joe McCoy and Memphis Minnie, When the Levee Breaks – Famous 1927 Mississippi River Flood

    Original recorded version of the song later made famous by Led Zeppelin.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=swhEa8vuP6U&feature=youtu.be

    1983, Texas Flood: Steve Ray Vaughan ( first recorded by blues singer Larry Davis in 1958.)

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OQuY7dHfWrM

    LA Woman, The Doors

    “I see your hair is burning,’
    Hills are filled with fire … ”

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RbfG_-jFDhQ

    40

    • #
      Maptram

      Fire is not a new phenomenon either. Fire was mentioned by Shakespeare in King John, believed to have been written sometime between 1587 and 1598, most likely 1596.

      Your Breath First
      Kindled the
      Dead Coals of Wars . . .
      And Brought in Matter
      That Should Feed this Fire
      And Now ‘Tis far too huge
      To be blown out
      With that same weak wind
      Which Enkindled it

      It seems that Shakespeare knew more about fuel and fire than the Greens and other climate change believers

      20

      • #
        Greg in NZ

        Dem Greens, no doubtin’, be thinkin’ dem sandbags
        done did cause all dat floodin’ on Ol’ Man River.

        Dam the Greens –
        long live da Blues!

        Excellent selection of music, Mr Jones.

        20

  • #
    mem

    Found a dead rat on my lawn this morning.Climate change wasn’t responsible for its demise, but probably an owl dropped it on the roof and it bounced onto the lawn. In recent times have found two possums that have been killed by dropping; one landed on picket fence causing dreadful noise during night. As an aside, it is the year of the metal rat in the Chinese calendar.”2020: The year of the Metal Rat
    The Rat is also the first in the rotation of the 12 zodiac signs, meaning that a Rat year is a year of renewal. So when a Rat year comes, it generally delivers new experiences with favorable outcomes for all of the signs.”

    50

  • #
    pat

    27 Dec: KTOO Public Media: Despite holiday cold snap, 2019 is ‘virtually certain’ to be warmest year on record for Alaska
    By Wesley Early, Alaska’s Energy Desk – Kotzebue
    Much of Alaska had been frigid this holiday week as temperatures across the state dipped as low as minus 60 degrees Fahrenheit. That’s in stark contrast to a year with record high temperatures and major disruptions of traditionally solid sea ice across the Arctic.

    Temperatures in the Northwest Arctic villages of Ambler and Buckland reached 42 degrees below zero on the morning of Dec. 26. The Interior village of Allakaket had the coldest temperature in the state on Dec. 26 at minus 56 degrees. Friday, Dec. 27, saw a low of minus 65 degrees in Manley Hot Springs near Eureka, one of the lowest temperatures for anywhere in Alaska in years…
    Simply put, the state was cold this week…

    Rick Thoman, a climatologist with the International Arctic Research Center in Fairbanks, says though it’s a dramatic drop from this winter’s balmy start, the weather pattern is normal for this time of year…
    Despite the drop in temperatures, Thoman says this last-minute cold snap likely won’t change Alaska’s record-breaking climate forecast for the year.
    “2019 is, at this point, virtually certain to be the warmest year of record for Northwest Alaska, and the state as a whole,” Thoman said.

    While not making much of a dent in the average temperatures for the year, Thoman says the cold snap is helping create sturdy sea ice — which saw record-low growth during this warmer winter.
    “The cold weather has helped to finally pretty much freeze over the Chukchi Sea — very late freeze-up — and now starting to work on the Bering Sea,” he said. “So that’s all good news for moving forward as we move into spring.”…
    https://www.ktoo.org/2019/12/27/despite-holiday-cold-snap-2019-is-virtually-certain-to-be-warmest-year-on-record-for-alaska/

    30

    • #
      pat

      29 Dec: AccuWeather: Will brutally cold air in Alaska make its way into the Lower 48 states?
      by Alex Sosnowski
      From their midmonth peak with temperatures as much as 30 degrees Fahrenheit above average, a recent and ongoing cold blast has temperatures in Alaska hovering 20 to 30 degrees below average during the last weekend of 2019.
      “In some cases actual temperatures plummeted to more than 60 below zero,” according to AccuWeather Meteorologist Jesse Ferrell.
      “A place ironically called Manley Hot Springs, Alaska, dipped to 65 below zero during Friday morning,” Ferrell said…

      Alaska has been so cold recently that December may finish with near-average temperatures rather than above average over the interior part of the state…
      But, just because much of Alaska is brutally cold does not mean that the Lower 48 States will soon follow suit…READ ON
      https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/will-brutally-cold-air-in-alaska-make-its-way-into-the-lower-48-states/652360

      40

      • #
        pat

        29 Dec: Accuweather: Winter storm to bury parts of the Heartland under 2 feet of snow
        By Brandon Buckingham
        A major winter storm will take aim at the nation’s midsection this weekend and into early next week, bringing ice, localized whiteout conditions and up to two feet of snow over portions of the Plains and Upper Midwest.
        The same storm system first brought travel to a standstill in Southern California on Wednesday night.

        As colder air filtered southward from Canada, snow began to spread across the Plains Friday night. Portions of interstates 76, 80 and 90 in Colorado, Nebraska and South Dakota began to experience travel issues.
        The storm system will continue to intensify as it expands northward into the Midwest this weekend. A steady snow and increasingly gusty winds will be felt for places like North Platte, Nebraska, and Aberdeen, South Dakota…
        The storm system will continue to bring heavy snow and gusty winds, leading to whiteout conditions across the Plains and northern Midwest on Sunday. These conditions could be realized in places like Fargo, North Dakota, for much of the day…
        https://www.accuweather.com/en/winter-weather/winter-storm-to-bring-heavy-snow-near-blizzard-conditions-to-the-plains-midwest/651346

        40

  • #
    Dean

    Well, its 2020, time to tick off all the accurate predictions!

    This is hilarious.

    30

  • #
    pat

    28 Dec: SkyMetWeather: Winter chill to intensify in Madhya Pradesh and West Uttar Pradesh, rain and thundershower likely
    The state of West Uttar Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh are witnessing extreme cold conditions. It is not very usual for Madhya Pradesh to observe chilly winter but for the last few days, the minimum temperature has been settling 4-5 degrees below the normal average.
    For instance, Betul observed the minimum temperature settle at 2.8 degree Celsius today morning while in Gwalior the night temperature settled at 3.3 degrees Celsius.

    Similar weather conditions are prevailing in West Uttar Pradesh. The minimum temperature recorded in Bareilly today morning was 3.1 degrees Celsius while in Moradabad the night temperature settled at 3.8 degrees Celsius. Places like Noida, Ghaziabad, Rampur, Meerut, and Agra are also witnessing extremely cold weather conditions with the minimum temperatures settling 6-7 degrees below normal…

    The minimum temperature has decreased 4-5 degrees below average across a large part of both the states resulting in cold wave conditions. Moderate to dense fog is also being witnessed in the region. There is no significant weather system prevailing in the region but as the northerly/northwesterly winds are blowing across both the states the minimum temperature will decrease further during the next 24 to 36 hours. Frost conditions are likely to in northern parts of Madhya Pradesh…
    https://www.skymetweather.com/content/weather-news-and-analysis/winter-chill-to-intensify-in-madhya-pradesh-and-west-uttar-pradesh-rain-and-thundershower-likely/

    28 Dec: DB Post: Madhya Pradesh Weather/ State witnessing extreme cold conditions
    Pachmarhi was coldest in the state with night temperature recorded 1.2 degrees. Tikamgarh, Umaria, Damoh recorded 1.5, 1.9 and 2.5 degrees respectively…
    Night temp 4-5 degrees below normal: The minimum temperature has decreased 4-5 degrees below average across a large part of both the states resulting in cold wave conditions…
    https://dbpost.com/madhya-pradesh-weather-state-witnessing-extreme-cold-conditions/

    30

  • #
    mark jones

    I’ve been browsing through Trove and discovered, quite by accident, an article in “The Antipodean” written by the first chief Meteorologist in Brisbane, Mr Clemant L Wragge. His article, The Work of the Chief Weather Bureau of Australasia is informative on the forensic method of setting up the network and the accuracy required in recording same. Now, something completely overlooked by most everyone on the recording of temperature accurately at each site. It isn’t just for the temperature it is the means of reverting to a standard to accurately record the barometric pressure using a mercury column. The standard of 32F needed to standardise all the readings throughout Australasia, alongside the measured elevation of each site.

    I would post a copy of the text but Trove has this nasty ability of character recognition that includes triple spacing between words and terrible line spacing. the particular piece is on page 137. So, after 1897, we can safely say that ANY data captured by Wragge and his team is bloody accurate and beyond meddling by the modern BoM.

    100

  • #
    pat

    Queensland fires: Crews save South Burnett home from grassfire in nick of time
    Courier Mail – 14 hours ago
    (DIFFERENT FIRE MIAMI BEACH, GOLD COAST)
    All occupants of the building were evacuated, with a German Shepard trapped in a unit on a lower floor rescued by two members of the public. The fire investigation unit will visit the scene in the morning to determine the cause of the fire, including if solar panels ignited the blaze…

    below shows the roof of Miami Beach unit, Gold Coast. ends with: it is believed the blaze was started from a solar panel:

    VIDEO: 30secs: 28 Dec: Facebook: 7News Gold Coast: Pair save dog from Gold Coast fire
    https://www.facebook.com/7NEWSGoldCoast/videos/pair-save-dog-from-gold-coast-fire/541951783058861/#

    41

  • #
    pat

    open access – worth reading all:

    15 Nov: The Weekend Australian: Climate alarmists are brazen opportunists preying on misery
    by Chris Kenny
    Climate alarmists are using tragic deaths and community pain to push a political barrow. Aided by journalists and others who should know better, they are trying to turn a threat endured on this continent for millennia into a manifestation of their contemporary crusade…

    Journalists, often encouraged by authorities, have written about the “unprecedented” nature of the Queensland fires. Yet newspaper searches tell a different story…

    CNN International went heavy on our fires, saying half of Queensland was facing bushfire emergency.
    The US-based broadcaster ran a Nine Network report by Airlie Walsh declaring it was the “first time in history Sydney had been met with such catastrophic conditions”…READ ALL
    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/inquirer/climate-alarmists-are-brazen-opportunists-preying-on-misery/news-story/00d6187186abc4b74e46f7d2b7903053

    fake headline:

    20 Dec: NY Mag: Intelligencer: We’re Getting a Clearer Picture of the Climate Future — and It’s Not as Bad as It Once Looked
    By David Wallace-Wells
    http://nymag.com/intelligencer/2019/12/climate-change-worst-case-scenario-now-looks-unrealistic.html

    40

  • #
    hatband

    Interesting take on Privatisation from economist Paul Craig Roberts, former Undersecretary of the Treasury during the Reagan Administration.

    https://www.unz.com/proberts/privatization-is-resurrecting-feudalism/

    10

    • #
      Dennis

      There is nothing wrong with privatisation as long as there are rules and regulations for the industry and am industry watchdog government organisation. And of course one with teeth and motivated.

      But this relies on free market capitalism that our developed nation’s wealth and well being is based upon.

      Governments must not interfere and pick market winners and losers via penalties for some and subsidies for the government pet projects like wind and solar farms.

      Let the market consumers decide on the best service/product supplier.

      10

      • #
        hatband

        Another commenter said yesterday that the Black Friday bushfires were caused by a white ant infested power pole that collapsed under it’s own weight because scheduled maintenance doesn’t matter anymore to the Private Power Barons.

        Privatisation doesn’t appear to work for the little man in natural monopolies like Power Generation and Supply, Railways, the Post Office, Ports, etc.

        Which raises the question: Who should Australia be governed to benefit-The Man in the Street, or the Oligarchs?

        30

      • #
        hatband

        Another commenter said yesterday that the Black Friday bushfires were caused by a white ant infested power pole that collapsed under it’s own weight because scheduled maintenance doesn’t matter anymore to the Private Power Barons.

        Privatisation doesn’t appear to work for the little man in natural monopolies like Power Generation and Supply, Railways, the Post Office, Ports, etc.

        Which raises the question: Who should Australia be governed to benefit-The Man in the Street, or the Oligarchs?

        10

      • #
        hatband

        Let the market consumers decide on the best service/product supplier

        Industry is a massive consumer of electric power.

        I’ve yet to see any Industry or Industry Group push back against our headlong dash into the Renewables abyss.

        So, perhaps market consumers shouldn’t be making decisions regarding Natural Monopolies?

        20

        • #
          Sceptical Sam

          Why would they bother pushing back?

          Capital is footloose.

          It just moves itself to China, or USA (under President Trump). Or somewhere else (Western Australia is a good domestic option).

          11

  • #
    Another Ian

    More dragging!

    “Scientific American: Even Believers Must be Compelled to Live Low Carbon Lifestyles”

    https://wattsupwiththat.com/2019/12/28/scientific-american-even-believers-must-be-compelled-to-live-low-carbon-lifestyles/

    10

  • #
    David Maddison

    Massive snow banks in Iceland.

    QUOTE
    “We’ve never before had snow on this scale,” states Valgeir Þorvaldsson, director of the Icelandic Emigration Center in Hofsós, North Iceland, located in two-story houses that almost disappeared under a thick blanket of snow during the big storm last week.

    “When building these houses, it never occurred to us we’d have to shovel [snow] off these roofs. There are, I believe, 9 meters (30 ft) up to the gable of the biggest house, and the roofs are very steep, too,” he continues.

    When contacted by mbl.is on Monday, he had just finished assisting 30 horses in accessing hay in the deep snow.

    “Maybe this is why people emigrated to America,” Valgeir ponders.

    SEE LINK FOR REST

    https://www.sott.net/article/425891-Up-to-30-FEET-deep-snow-banks-in-Iceland-We-ve-never-before-had-snow-on-this-scale?fbclid=IwAR2xFv1TkMaWkRSe9NZm_xOIp3r7jlOarBU8LHTjo_wAEIEOif0led6XWDQ

    30

  • #
    New Chum

    WHAT WILL Trump think of this?
    UN Begins Process of Handing Internet Control to Ruthless Dictators
    By Rick Moran December 28, 2019
    https://pjmedia.com/trending/un-begins-process-of-handing-internet-control-to-ruthless-dictators/

    20

  • #
    robert rosicka

    Trying to work out a different recipe for potato salad but I’ll be blowed if I know what – De flame onions means .

    00

    • #
      Serp

      “De-flame” onions by pouring boiling water over them to mellow out their flavor if you’re using them raw. According to a google search.

      10

      • #
        robert rosicka

        Thanks Serp , certainly different .

        10

        • #
          Graeme No.3

          I wonder if it would work on the ABC?
          Worth trying the boiling water treatment?

          Was changing TV channels and saw something about the Y2K problem. Hastily went back to the channel which turned out to be ABC 24. Didn’t bother much but long enough that they were claiming that many, all(?) computers would run out of internal clock time in 2038 & revert to the 1970’s (the well known Unix bug as discussed in the 1990’s).
          Question: IF this happens, will the ABC go overboard on the COMING ICE AGE as so many “climate experts” were carrying on about then? Or will they claim it was caused by Climate Warming/ Change /Disruption/Extinction etc and is really a symptom of it?

          50

          • #
            Sceptical Sam

            Ah, yes.

            Never mind. The ABC’ll just give us yet another remake of “Back to the Future”. And hitch it to the existing three part trilogy. Very original idea that.

            Marty McFly will revert to a 9 year old and discover that Tim Flannery is really a reincarnated shape-shifting giant wombat that found its internal time had expired.

            While the ABC won’t admit it, it knows that Tim is, nevertheless not a wombat but rather a zombie, whose wiring has been reconfigured by “Doc” Emmett Brown to avoid him replicating a Brown Nosed Hairy Wombat.

            But those who refuse to watch the ABC know that Tim is really just a brown nosing numbat.

            20

    • #
      Yonniestone

      You Defame an onion by accusing then of being Shallot faced and taking a Leek in a Tuber.

      40

  • #
    pat

    CNN churns this stuff out:

    VIDEO: 1m37s: 27 Dec: CNN: Students in this Virginia school district will get an excused absence so they can protest
    By Dakin Andone
    Ryan McElveen, an at-large member of the Fairfax County School Board, proposed the policy this year after seeing “a steady rise in student activism,” he said on Twitter (LINK).
    The policy goes into effect on January 27, McElveen said, and allows students in grades 7 through 12 one partial school day each year to participate in events he called “civic engagement activities.”…
    And this year, students all around the world have demanded action on climate change by joining climate strikes inspired by Swedish teen activist Greta Thunberg…
    https://edition.cnn.com/2019/12/27/us/fairfax-schools-protests-trnd/index.html

    24 Dec: CNN: In Asia Pacific the climate crisis is happening now, not in the future
    By Helen Regan
    Toxic smog shrouded Asian megacities, hundreds died in flooding and landslides, cyclones battered coastlines and bushfires, droughts and deadly heatwaves led to towns and cities almost running out of water.
    Far from being anomalies, scientists say the climate crisis is causing more extreme weather events — and it’s having devastating consequences in Asia and the Pacific…

    Fast-growing, industrializing and coal-reliant Asian countries are pumping out increasing levels of carbon dioxide emissions, despite efforts by nations such as India and China to move towards cleaner energy…
    Sustento (climate campaigner) said fossil fuel companies also need to do their part — by speeding up the shift to renewable energy…
    https://edition.cnn.com/2019/12/23/asia/asia-pacific-climate-crisis-intl-hnk/index.html

    VIDEO: 7m17s: 26 Dec: CNN: Shouting into the apocalypse: The decade in climate change
    Opinion by John D. Sutter
    How climate change impacted the world in 2019 07:17
    Editor’s Note: John D. Sutter is a CNN contributor and a National Geographic Explorer. He is director of the forthcoming BASELINE series, which is visiting four locations on the front lines of the climate crisis every five years until 2050. Visit the project’s website and sign up for the BASELINE newsletter. The opinions expressed in this commentary are his own.

    What’s that worn-out phrase? Shouting into the wind? Well, after a decade of rising pollution, failed politics and worsening disasters, it seems the many, many of us who care about the climate crisis increasingly are shouting into the hurricane, if not the apocalypse…
    It bears repeating that scientists have looked at the evidence, and more than 97% of them agree that humans are warming the planet, primarily by burning fossil fuels such as coal, oil and gas. The warnings from scientists are only getting more dire as we peel decades off the calendar…

    Only 52% of American adults say they are “very” or “extremely” sure global warming is happening, according to a report from the Yale Program on Climate Change Communication and the George Mason University Center for Climate Change Communication…
    In other words: Despite the increased sense of urgency, public opinion is flat…

    On the political left, however, people view the issue quite differently than they did a decade ago, according to Leiserowitz, the director of the Yale program. Liberal Democrats view global warming as their No. 3 voting issue, with environmental protection as No. 2, he said. Compare that to conservative Republicans, who rank global warming dead last on a 29-issue list…
    https://edition.cnn.com/2019/12/26/opinions/climate-change-decade-in-review-sutter/index.html

    30

  • #
    pat

    28 Dec: Gateway Pundit: “Wow Crazy Nancy, What’s Going On?” – BOOM! Trump Exposes Nancy Pelosi and Son Paul’s Shady Dealings in Ukraine
    by Jim Hoft
    THIS WAS DEVASTATING!
    President Trump hit the Bidens and Pelosi families tonight in one tweet!
    TWEET
    Trump linked to an OAN (One America News Network) video of Paul Pelosi’s shady deal with Ukrainian energy companies…READ ALL
    https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2019/12/wow-crazy-nancy-whats-going-on-boom-trump-exposes-nancy-pelosi-and-son-pauls-shady-dealings-in-ukraine/

    SMH jumped on this nonsense, via WaPo:

    29 Dec: SMH: Trump shares – then deletes – post naming the alleged whistleblower
    By Colby Itkowitz, Washington Post
    Trump shared a Twitter post on Friday night from @surfermom77, who describes herself as “100% Trump supporter,” with his 68 million followers…
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/trump-shares-then-deletes-post-naming-the-alleged-whistleblower-20191229-p53ne2.html

    TWEET: Brian Stelter, CNN
    Thread, 1/4: Earlier today I said Trump had RTed, then removed, a post with the unsubstantiated name of the Ukraine whistleblower. Tonight, Twitter said that Trump never un-RTed the post. A Twitter glitch made it LOOK like he had removed it. I’ve updated my story w/ the new info…
    28 Dec 2019

    28 Dec: Gateway Pundit: Twitter Says “Glitch” Caused President Trump’s Retweet of CIA Whistleblower to “Appear Deleted” — Funny How those “Glitches” Only Affect Trump and His Supporters?
    by Jim Hoft
    President Trump on Thursday tweeted out an article that names the alleged anti-Trump CIA whistleblower — Eric Ciaramella.
    President Trump retweeted a tweet from the Trump War Room that includes this article from the Washington Examiner that names the whistleblower in the title of the article:

    “Schiff hired former colleague of alleged whistleblower Eric Ciaramella the day after Trump Ukraine call” – Washington Examiner

    But after President Trump posted this tweet it went missing.
    The AP and CNN wrote articles about it.
    In fact, on Friday night several of President Trump’s tweets went missing — and several of the accounts he tweeted were deleted by Twitter.
    And Twitter was also caught shaving THOUSANDS of likes off of President Trump’s tweets.

    Twitter later responded to CNN and admitted to deleting several pro-Trump accounts after President Trump retweeted them.
    But after Twitter got caught they finally released a statement on Saturday night saying these anti-Trump maneuvers were just a glitch…READ ON
    https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2019/12/twitter-says-glitch-caused-president-trumps-retweet-of-cia-whistleblower-to-appear-deleted-funny-how-those-glitches-only-affect-trump-and-his-supporters/

    FakeNewsMSM is now trying to twist the story in other ways to feed their TDS.

    10

    • #
      pat

      27 Dec: Breitbart: Media, Tech Self-Censorship over ‘Whistleblower’ Marks Death of Free Press in United States
      by Joel B. Pollak, Senior Editor-at-Large
      The United States of America no longer has a free press as of December 2019.
      Press freedom was already in danger, as Mark Levin noted, as journalists became political activists in the Obama era, and feuded with the president in the Trump era. But press freedom could have thrived in a more openly partisan marketplace of ideas. In the end, press freedom was killed by the press itself, in the decision not to report the name of the so-called “whistleblower” in the impeachment crisis.

      His name — which Breitbart News published (LINK) after it was first revealed by RealClearInvestigations (LINK) — is no mystery. Apparently, his identity was the worst-kept secret in Washington, D.C. The Intelligence Community Inspector General (ICIG) concluded in September that the “whistleblower,” a CIA employee, had shown “political bias,” and favored “a rival political candidate,” most likely former Vice President Joe Biden, for whom he reportedly worked…READ ALL
      https://www.breitbart.com/the-media/2019/12/27/pollak-media-tech-self-censorship-over-whistleblower-marks-death-of-free-press-united-states/

      12 Nov: Washington Examiner: Fox anchor blasts Mollie Hemingway for naming alleged whistleblower Eric Ciaramella
      by Mike Brest
      Fox News anchor Howard Kurtz condemned network contributor Mollie Hemingway for naming the alleged whistleblower on his show…
      “I don’t think it’s the role of the media to disclose the identity of the whistleblower,” Kurtz said. “As you know, a name came up on my program yesterday. I don’t think that should have happened. Mollie Hemingway says that she was simply repeating a name that had been bandied about by certain sites, and no one had told her that Fox and other organizations were not using the name.”…

      Hemingway was the second to name Ciaramella as the whistleblower on the network. Last week, Lars Larson, who was a guest on Outnumbered Overtime, named him. The network has told hosts that they should not name the alleged whistleblower because “Fox News has not confirmed or independently verified the name of the whistleblower.”…
      Ciaramella was identified as the whistleblower by RealClearInvestigations last month. Lawyers for the whistleblower responded by calling attempts to out their client the “pinnacle of irresponsibility.”…
      The Washington Examiner reported last month that he is now a deputy national intelligence officer for Russia and Eurasia on the National Intelligence Council, reporting to the director of national intelligence.
      https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/fox-anchor-blasts-mollie-hemingway-for-naming-alleged-whistleblower-eric-ciaramella

      10 Nov: Twitchy: WATCH: Mollie Hemingway says alleged whistleblower’s name on air
      by Greg P
      Fox News contributor and Federalist senior editor said the alleged whistleblower’s name on air this morning, arguing that it’s time to start reporting on his identity…
      Hemingway correctly noted that it was the New York Times who basically outed this individual when the paper identified the whistleblower as a CIA employee working in the White House (sitck around until the end for the reaction from the panel)…

      According to CNN, Fox News hosts and personalities were told not to identify the whistleblower…

      And as we told you last week, Chairman Adam Schiff himself failed to redact Ciaramella’s name from an official transcript, so maybe dial back the outrage directed at Hemingway…

      Related:
      LINK; Watch: Sen. Rand Paul shuts down reporter who says it’s illegal to out a whistleblower…
      https://twitchy.com/gregp-3534/2019/11/10/watch-mollie-hemingway-says-alleged-whistleblowers-name-on-air/

      00

  • #
    Furiously curious

    Weekend Aus reviewing “The Commons”, a new show on Stan. ” The series shows the way our world had progressed into the future, the inability, refusal even, of governments to manage the country’s ecology, has seen us recede in our daily lives, into anxiety and dread. People are moved into large refugee centres as Australia burns, and it’s water dries up completely, in an unending drought.” The writer/creater Shelley Birse “spent a year in research speaking with climate scientists about “what is just around the corner.” “Well it’s not happening today but it could be happening tomorrow.” “How right she was.”
    It’s tough to fight stuff like this. Did you get a phone call from her Jo? I see no signs of the drought ending. But they dont have a mechanism for it. There’s cold water, there’s warm water……….Mind you Fiji just got hit with the first cyclone. Live in hope.

    30

  • #
    • #
      • #

        “It felt awkward but we did not have
        the time for trains or boats.” …

        It felt awkward
        but what to do
        when it’s all for
        the greater good?

        H/t Plato ‘n
        Stephen Schneider
        regarding yr ‘noble’
        and hence ‘necessary’ lie.

        40

        • #
          Yonniestone

          It was made even more awkward when one of the BBC crew (an arts major) realised Norman Lindsay had created the Magic Pudding during his travels in Sweden…….

          40

    • #
      RicDre

      My favorite comment in the article: “I don’t understand why the BBC feels so uncomfortable. Extinction Rebellion tells us it is OK for celebrities to fly, because they are trapped by the system. And Greta flew at least four boat crew across the Atlantic to help sail her non-recyclable plastic boat, to avoid a single transatlantic flight for herself.

      So plenty of climate hypocrisy all around. I doubt the BBC’s climate hypocrisy really stands out from everyone elses.”

      20

      • #
        Brian

        it is all a little silly really. The planes that carried the relief crew to the US and the transit crew back to Europe were going to fly in any case and by filling additional seats the crews reduced the per capita emissions involved in the flights without impacting actual emissions. Just demonstrates that per capita emissions, used to portray Australia as an emissions pariah are a deeply flawed metric.

        40

  • #
  • #
    Slithers

    Let the punishment fit the crime.

    Ok You set a fire, you are prosecuted for setting a fire.
    The fire did 1$m damage.
    You plead guilty, you get jail time and repay the 1$m before you are let out.
    You plead Not-guilty, but are found guilty, you get ten times the jail and have to re-ay 10$m before you are let out of jail.

    Seems equitable to me!

    30

  • #
    pat

    at the Big Bash cricket, the docu “The Game Changers” was brought up when referring to Peter Siddle becoming a vegan. two out of three commentators weren’t impressed:

    Wikipedia: The Game Changers
    The documentary follows former UFC fighter James Wilks who, while recovering from an injury, researches nutrition, and travels the world to discuss his findings with elite athletes who follow plant-based diets.
    Athletes interviewed in the film include Arnold Schwarzenegger, Patrik Baboumian, and Dotsie Bausch…

    The documentary came under heavy criticism not only from sports, science and nutrition sectors, but also from other defenders of plant-based diets. Critics pointed out factual inaccuracies on the information presented, a misleading usage of data taken out of context, and flawed arguments against both meat and dairy in favor of pro-vegan interests. They also attacked the documentary’s claims that “meat and dairy industry secretly fund all the studies that demonstrate any benefits to animal products,” not only labelling this as a factually incorrect conspiracy theory, but also comparing that, conversely, all the experts and medical professionals partaking in the documentary were also sellers of vegan products (also including the film’s executive producer, James Cameron, an outspoken vegan who founded plant protein company Verdient Foods)…

    Addressing the conclusions presented in Game Changers and general tone of the documentary, nutritionist Layne Norton stated, “the film used strawman, false dichotomies, cherry picking, and a whole host of other logical fallacies in an attempt to demonize animals products and make vegan diet the solution to the world’s problems…

    Sports nutrition expert Asker Jeukendrep was quoted as, “Game Changers ticks almost all the boxes of pseudoscience, and none of the boxes of science,” an opinion echoed by other reviewers…
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Game_Changers

    sounds a bit like CAGW science.

    30

    • #
      Zane

      Big Soy is a powerful industry. While Wall Street is currently enamored with meat-substitute IPOs from the likes of Beyond Meat and similar. BYND trading today at US$75 on the NASDAQ with a market cap of $4.7 billion. The shares peaked at a ridiculous $239 in July 2019.

      10

  • #
    • #
      Graeme#4

      Interesting comment about a landowner being responsible for the wind farm cleanup. Wonder how many other land owners have signed similar contracts?

      20

  • #
  • #
    • #
      Graeme#4

      There is also an article in the Oz this morning from a departing BP chief, saying that gas will be the interim fuel of choice. And somebody mentioned that the 8000 km gas pipeline from Russia to China is now supplying gas. WA has 40% gas and still manages to keep its domestic supply cost down at 26c/unit.

      10

  • #
    James Murphy

    I’m not sure how an electric aeroplane can be classified as “sustainable” without a long extension cord.

    https://www.cnbc.com/2019/12/11/worlds-first-fully-electric-commercial-aircraft-completes-test-flight.html

    I read Magnix as Magimix, so what would I know about such things…

    30

    • #
      RicDre

      According to the article:

      “The plane flew above the Fraser River outside Vancouver for about seven minutes before touching down at around 8:30 a.m. local time on Tuesday.”

      A seven minute flight? Admittedly, this was longer that the longest flight by the Wright brothers at Kitty Hawk in 1903 (according to Wikipedia, “The last flight, by Wilbur, was 852 feet (260 m) in 59 seconds”), but by 1905 Wilbur made a 39-minute, 24-mile (39 km) flight. It sounds like they have some work to do to exceed that 1905 Wright Flyer 39 minute flight.

      60

    • #
      Graeme#4

      Think this is the aircraft that has no room for passengers because it’s full of batteries. To call it a “commercial aircraft” is stretching the truth a very long way.

      40

    • #
      yarpos

      saw that on Youtube, much celebration, aviation changed forever, world saved etc

      not a single word on payload and endurance

      50

  • #
    robert rosicka

    According to “models” SAM has moved west ,forced by CAGW and it’s quite clear , we think ?

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/rural/2019-12-30/drastic-changes-to-rainfall-reshape-wa-wheatbelt/11829596

    I thought WA had a near record crop last year ?

    00

    • #
      Graeme#4

      Yes, they did. But ithe SW has become drier over the last 50-60 years. The past three years had a lot cooler summers, but this year the oceans off the SW corner are a lot warmer.

      00

  • #
  • #
    beowulf

    The current Greta-Jugend cult brain washing had its pre-curser in the 1930s. Now the German Greens have brazenly resurrected a technique pioneered by the H**tler Jugend. German WDR 2 public broadcasting channel has a choir of young schoolgirls taught to hate, made to sing “My grandma is an old environmental scumbag” because she drives an SUV, eats meat, or flies on holidays. This channel “proudly broadcast a children’s song with lyrics dehumanizing senior citizens – grandmothers in particular – as “old environmental scumbags”!”

    And Greta gets the final word at the end of the song: “We will not let you get away with this!”

    https://notrickszone.com/2019/12/29/gretas-generational-supremacists-indoctrinated-german-girls-sing-grandmother-is-an-environmental-scumbag/

    The H**ler Youth anthem, The Rotten Bones Are Trembling, “Denn heute, da gehört uns Deutschland / und morgen die ganze Welt” (For today, Germany is ours / and tomorrow the whole world) went on to besmirch and ridicule the older generations — the rotten bones — who didn’t know as much as the 10 and 14 year olds of their day. Sound familiar?

    Here’s the despot himself: “When my opponents say ‘we won’t join you’, I just say, your children are mine already. What are you? In time you will die, but your sons and daughters stand forever in my new camp, and in a short time they’ll know nothing else.”

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=57&v=Y81-SzkwwhU&feature=emb_logo

    And Greta warns that her generation “will be watching” us.

    Would that be like the school kids in Tamworth NSW who have to report their family’s water usage each week in front of their class? What else will they be required to report after a few more years? Yes, Tamworth is on severe water restrictions, but to have to report weekly on your family is a step too far. What happens to some kid whose family exceeds the average water use for whatever reason? The thin end of the wedge people.

    40

    • #
      Annie

      I will stick to my old Pathfinder, eat meat with enjoyment and continue to fly to see family and friends who live ‘UpOver’.

      Old Environmental Scumbag Grannie Annie.

      30

      • #
        Annie

        But never mind the fact that I was planting trees, composting, recycling, being careful by not being wasteful, etc. etc. since long before these climate brats were even a tiny twinkle in their parents’ eyes.

        30

  • #
    Brian

    Let’s do a back of an envelope assessment. 750-horsepower equates to 559 kW. Now the engine would be near flat out for takeoff and throttled back for cruising so a wet finger guess would be an average draw of 400 kW. So the minute flight would use up around 65 kW minutes. Now assuming they used a weight efficient battery assembly, sayLiFePO4. They will have reduced casing weight etc but say 29kg per 3 kWh capacity gives around 186 kg battery weight for the 7 minute flight or around 1,594 kg battery weight for an hours operation. Fuel load for a conventional engine is 546 kg. Now the de Havilland DHC-2 Beaver seaplane can carry 950 kg load so for an electric drive with a lighter engine lets say a crew of 2 and one or two passengers for no more than 30 minutes to leave a safety margin. Commercially viable only if activists want to tick a short ride in an electric plane off their to do list.

    00

  • #
    Robber

    Another year ends as we are told yet again that intermittent renewables are going to save the planet, but will they keep the lights on?
    In Australia, for the AEMO grid, average generation in MW:
    Coal 16,240 (69.7% of total)
    Gas 1,970 8.5% of total)
    Hydro 1,730
    Wind 1,850 (and on some days a minimum of 100 MW and a maximum of 900 MW)
    Large solar 425 (and of course every day a low of zero)
    Rooftop solar 1,095 (and of course every day a low of zero)

    00