JoNova

A science presenter, writer, speaker & former TV host; author of The Skeptic's Handbook (over 200,000 copies distributed & available in 15 languages).


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Thursday Open Thread

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Thursday Open Thread, 9.7 out of 10 based on 13 ratings

79 comments to Thursday Open Thread

  • #
    Peter C

    Cirrus Clouds. Do they warm the Earth?

    Recently we have had some very cold mornings in Melbourne. I live about 10km form the official Melbourne weather site and I have had three mornings of a frozen windscreen on my car this winter.
    High, thin clouds primarily transmit incoming solar radiation; at the same time, they trap some of the outgoing infrared radiation emitted by the Earth and radiate it back downward, thereby warming the surface of the Earth. ”
    That lead me to think again about this “sciency announcement from NASA”:

    High, thin clouds primarily transmit incoming solar radiation; at the same time, they trap some of the outgoing infrared radiation emitted by the Earth and radiate it back downward, thereby warming the surface of the Earth. “

    https://www.earthobservatory.nasa.gov/features/Clouds/clouds3.php

    Yesterday was another cold morning. We had partial thin cirrus above about dawn and the temperature got down to 4C. The day before it was clear and we got to 3C. Both morning s were dominated by a high pressure system with no wind.

    Is that enough to conclude that HIGH CLOUDS WARM!
    Not in my opinion. The Cooling Effect during the day outweighs any night warming.

    50

    • #
      el gordo

      The high pressure over our heads during the day makes it warm, but at night all that heat disappears into space, which is why we get frosts. Cirrus clouds are insignificant, except to warn us that a cold front is approaching.

      50

      • #
        Peter C

        I agree. NASA has it ass about.

        40

        • #
          Peter C

          You mention that high cirrus clouds often presage the arrival of a cold front, here in Victoria.
          CE (Wally) Wallington mentions high cirrus as the harbinger of warm fronts in the Northern hemisphere at the latitude of England. Here in Victoria at 37S we rarely see warm fronts, although they do occur well south of us, over the southern ocean. Cold fronts occur at about 8 day intervals and the fronts do not extend much north of the Vic/NSW border.

          I imagine that the cirrus precedes the cold front is likely due to the strong westerly upper level winds which are a feature of the southern hemisphere (the roaring forties). The cirrus likely forms behind the cold front, which is a wedge of cooler air pushing forward toward the east. The cirrus is then propelled eastward in the high level winds and ends up ahead of the front. That is my explanation unless anyone has a better one.

          30

          • #
            el gordo

            Talking of warm fronts, is it unusual to see them hanging around Antarctica in the Austral winter?

            http://www.bom.gov.au/fwo/IDY65100.pdf

            10

            • #
              Bill In Oz

              Six of them !
              Good grief the Antarctic will melt away completely…
              Sarc/
              Yet another indication that we humans still have a limited knowledge & appreciation of the weather.

              42

          • #
            Annie

            I used to think of high cirrus as an indicator of wet weather approaching while I was living in England. We called the clouds ‘Mares Tails’.

            50

            • #
              Peter C

              Thanks Annie,

              Cirrus clouds may have many shapes and forms. Mares tails are one of the distinctive forms.

              Cirrus clouds have a distinct look relative to the other nine cloud types. Because cirrus clouds are made of ice crystals, they look different than your typical puffy cloud shape, and can take on a number of different forms that resemble spider webs, fish skeletons, mares’ tail, or hair-like commas. If you’re observing a cloud that’s fibrous in nature, there’s a strong chance you’re looking at a cirrus cloud.

              https://whatsthiscloud.com/cloud-types/cirrus/

              Looming at clouds is a lot of fun, then speculating about the motions in the atmosphere which might lead to those formations.

              20

              • #
                Peter C

                Cirrus; Mares Tails, formally known as Cirrus Uncinus.
                https://whatsthiscloud.com/cloud-species/uncinus/

                According to the website they are a harbinger of bad weather. However I have also read that they may be associated with jet streams. Clearly the ice crystals drop down. Then they seem to be carried away by a lower level wind. In reality they drop down from a fast moving wind and leaving their tails behind them.

                10

    • #
      GlenM

      Well given that high Cirrus is composed of Ice and quite thin (theory of Brontosaurus) of course indicates stable weather. Initially. Cirro-stratus mostly follows as the front approaches. Then again, I would be interested if Cirrus has an effect on re radiation from the surface;more the case of incoming energy being reflected/refracted. Cirrus are certainly different to all other cloud formations. Mares tails and all that sort of stuff.

      30

    • #
      Peter C

      I have a three day experiment now.

      Day 1: 8 July 2020. Clear skies. high pressure and very little wind
      Day 2: 9 July 2020. High partial cirrus cloud. High Pressure and very little wind.
      Day 3: 10 July 2020. High Alto stratus cloud with full (8/8) coverage. Still under the high pressure. Very little wind

      My initial analysis shows very little difference between the 3 days! I was expecting much colder nights with clear skies and cooler days under the alto stratus layer cloud.
      Well that did not happen. The early morning was slightly cooler on the clear night. The day time temperatures have been much the same.
      What does it all mean?

      00

  • #
    Speedy

    Don’t know about you, but every time I see a photo of Chairman Dan, his expression seems to be “this looks bad, but it wasn’t my fault”.

    Perhaps his autocratic rule has diminished people’s trust in the law. That, and letting a few thousand turkeys have a rally, which flies in the face of all the discipline that the rest of the community have complied with. After that, no wonder people start thinking that the quarantine controls are a joke, and respond accordingly…

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    • #
      Another Ian

      Speedy

      Remember the term “wet-backs” for swimmers of the Rio Grande?

      I don’t have links but the “Vic-back” and “Vic-boat-people” cartoons have started.

      Drones in use for detection!

      60

  • #
    Bill In Oz

    Just testing.
    2+2 = 4

    55

  • #
    el gordo

    East coast low (ECL) to impact NSW on Monday and Tuesday.

    40

    • #
      Bill In Oz

      Yes it looks like it will be a good drop !
      Floods on the way next week !
      I bet the Guardian will be warning about dams breaking !

      64

      • #
        Another Ian

        Even a Zerohedge headline?

        20

      • #
        Another Ian

        Amazing, Bill. You’ve flushed 3 supporters of The Guardian this early!

        20

        • #
          Bill In Oz

          Yes it is amazing Ian.
          Three red thumbies for a comment about it raining next week.
          There is a level of irrationality about.

          62

          • #
            Graeme No.3

            It’s true! It’s true! The WOKE have made it clear.
            The climate must be perfect all the year.

            A law was made a distant moon ago here:
            January and February only can be hot.
            And a legal limit to stop the snow
            In Camelot.
            Winter is forbidden remember
            And records must be on the spot.
            By order, Spring runs from March to December
            In Camelot.
            Camelot! Camelot!
            I know it sounds a bit bizarre,
            But in Camelot, Camelot
            That’s how conditions are.
            The rain may never fall till after sundown.
            By eight, the morning fog must disappear.
            In short, there’s simply not
            A more congenial spot
            For day-dreaming than here
            In Camelot.

            70

          • #
  • #
    GlenM

    Yep. A cold pool in the uppers combined with warm seas to our East should promote weather. A bit blowy for parts of NSW and some good rain.

    60

  • #
  • #
    David Wojick

    ‘Deniers’ of the World, Unite!
    By Clarice Feldman
    https://the-pipeline.org/deniers-of-the-world-unite/

    The beginning: “Much is made of the fact that former “climate change” advocates have now defected to the side of reason. But much more needs to be done to defeat climate change propaganda. The latest defection, as we’ve noted here, is Michael Shellenberger, author of Apocalypse Never: Why Environmental Alarmism Hurts Us All. His arguments are well-documented but he’s been denied a voice in the major media.
    The major media shut-outs are not the only way climate change skeptics are made non-persons and their arguments, studies and critiques of the prevailing view silenced. The most important search engine, Google does it, too. David Wojick tested it by searching his own works and those of other climate change skeptics on Google.”

    There is a lot more in the article, especially about green propaganda disguised as education.

    Good stuff!

    David

    140

  • #
    Orson

    There is a new climate realist web site named The Pipeline
    https://the-pipeline.org/

    “THE PIPELINE is dedicated to exposing the Environmentalist Movement’s undermining of freedom and prosperity across the Anglosphere and beyond”

    Go and have look.

    The editors include former PM Margaret Thatcher speech writer John O’Sullivan and the Yank, Michael Walsh.

    O’Sullivan has been in Budapest, heading the Danube Institute, after a stint in Prague at the Voice of America. Walsh was once Time magazines long-time classical music critic, and after a few novels hit it big with a major Disney movie script.

    Michael Walsh’s nonfiction book “The Devil’s Pleasure Palace” is highly recommended for these hard Left times, having hit required reading in the White House for staffers in May of 2017.

    Here’s a fresh interview of Walsh
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t4BoKs8qVsU

    Walsh is currently in Ireland and says Europe is 100% against Trump. No surprise there.

    70

  • #
    Roger

    Hokitika station. New Zealand shows No Warming over 130 years of records, or at least it didn’t before NASA GISS modified the records yet again and it now shows a warming trend.

    Global Warming is definitely Man Made and seemingly NASA GISS are responsible for making it appear that earth is warming when the raw data shows it is not.

    https://notrickszone.com/2020/07/08/new-zealand-shows-no-warming-in-130-years-despite-tricks-to-show-warming/

    New Study finds that plants take up more than twice as much CO2 as the IPCC suggest and use in their modelling and predictions.

    It also find explosive growth in leaf area : “In the last two decades, an average of 310,000 km² of additional leaf and needle area – roughly the size of Poland or Germany – has been created every year,”

    https://notrickszone.com/2020/07/07/flawed-models-new-studies-find-plants-take-up-more-than-twice-as-much-co2-than-expected/

    140

  • #
    Orson

    This is depressing. Now retired radio talk show host in New Zealand, Lindsey Perigo, usefully dubbed the millennial generation “moronielles.”

    Is there still a chance that this in your face acid epitaph will catch on? One hopes, after reading what this right leaning social worker in hard Left USA says how they “think”…. It gets laughably depressing, but please continue because it is important to know this:

    When I’ve asked my friends and family why they want socialism, generally the response is terse: “To help people.” When I’ve asked why they reject the existence of nation states and hope for a socialist one-world order, none could provide a clear answer. Mostly they retreated to the sound bite: “It would be nicer.” “We have to share the planet.” Only one older family member had a clear position, “Because of all the atrocities perpetrated by nationalism.”

    I countered by asking: “And would socialism eradicate toxic nationalism?”

    He said, “I hope so.”

    So, I asked, “How does the state taking over production prevent future atrocities?”

    He answered, “I don’t want to talk about it anymore. You’re being hostile.”

    And that sums up many of the dialogues.

    He was right about one thing. He will need a lot of hope because progressive ideology is based on one part wishful thinking and the other part, well, wishful thinking. Did Russia stop behaving like a nation-state after the Bolshevik Revolution in 1917? Did it stop brutalizing its own people when the state took over production? Did post-Mao China retreat into its own borders and cease interfering in world politics? Did it allow unfettered immigration? Was anyone actually sharing anything? And, by the way, how’s Venezuela doing these days?

    All socialism does, like its kissing-cousin, communism, is put a greater concentration of power in even fewer people than national capitalism does, and the corruption continues without any impediment because human nature remains unchanged and unredeemed.

    Millennials, as a group, don’t seem perturbed by the possibilities. They are even more affiliated with the progressive tenets of the Democratic party. They are strongly anti-national, anti-religious, and, despite being skeptical of institutions, they are more than happy to give ever-increasing power to the federal government.

    The other problem progressive millennials have is that, as a group, they don’t concede that there is even such a thing as human nature, replete with base impulses. To them, humanity is perfectible (with a little government help and a lot of regulation).

    The truth, however, is that human nature is bifurcated and fallen. As such, there will be atrocities and power grabs no matter what economic system we have….

    Under capitalism, the rich want to become powerful. But under socialism, people want power in order to become rich. There is a big difference because human nature persists.

    And as historian Arthur Herman explains in his new book on Lenin and President Wilson during World War I and the past 20th century in “1917,” there was a big difference then, too.

    Under the German nationalism of Chancellor Otto von Bismarck, he waged a few necessary wars killing several thousands of people. But during the 20th century, people killed far over 120 million strangers over ideologies like fascism and socialism.

    The moronielle ignorance of facts — and their blithe inversion of Truth and reality — is stunning and horrifying. We cannot leave a great civilisation to such dolts, drudges, and morons. This will damage everyone.

    See “Economic Cannibalism: What Millennials Don’t Know Will Hurt Everyone” by Judith Acosta https://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2020/07/economic_cannibalism_what_millennials_dont_know_will_hurt_everyone.html

    150

    • #
    • #
      Ross

      Lindsey Perigo is a staunch libertarian and was a brilliant “old school” journalist who wasn’t scared to ask anyone the hard questions.

      Another guy in NZ made an interesting comment in a discussion about socialism recently –Dr Oliver Hartwich, the head of the think tank, the NZ Initiative. Oliver was educated in Germany. When asked in the discussion whether there was any evidence that a market led approach is better to get out of an economic recession/depression than Government intervention (ie. a socialist approach) he quickly and simply replied ” Oh definitely, yes, just look at West Germany vs East Germany after WW II”

      BTW. Some of you might recognise the name –he was at one time a Research Fellow at the Centre for Independent Studies at Sydney University

      40

  • #
    tom0mason

    Renewable energy researcher, Mark Jacobson, told to pay legal costs after his vexatious law suit was withdrawn.

    At the time, Kenneth White, a lawyer at Southern California firm Brown White & Osborn who frequently blogs at Popehat about legal issues related to free speech, said of the suit:

    It’s not incompetently drafted, but it’s clearly vexatious and intended to silence dissent about an alleged scientist’s peer-reviewed article.

    In February 2018, following a hearing at which PNAS argued for the case to be dismissed, Jacobson dropped the suit, telling us that he “was expecting them to settle.” The defendants then filed, based on the anti-SLAPP — for “Strategic Lawsuit Against Public Participation” — statute in Washington, DC, for Jacobson to pay their legal fees.

    See https://retractionwatch.com/2020/07/09/stanford-prof-ordered-to-pay-legal-fees-after-dropping-10-million-defamation-case-against-another-scientist/

    So he tried to stop critics from exercising their first amendment right of free speech and now he has to pay. Good!

    [Tom, the spam filter caught your comment.] ED

    20

    • #
      David Wojick

      Jacobson is a loon. He recently published a paper saying if we built 540,000 offshore windmills along the US East Coast we could suck the destructive energy out of hurricanes.

      He gets wind to be reliable by modeling the wind at each farm as a random variable, so most are blowing at all times. This eliminates the huge stagnant high pressure systems that knock out all the farms at once.

      20

  • #
    Travis T. Jones

    Virtue signalling on a super scale.

    Keep sharp objects and matches away from virtue signalling climate bedwetters!

    Got your money in here, you might want to move it where they care about your super future …

    Japan Promotes ‘Clean’ Coal in the Battle Against Climate Change
    Japan’s coal consumption is on the rise even as Europe plans a shift away from coal power. 

    https://thediplomat.com/2020/07/japan-promotes-clean-coal-in-the-battle-against-climate-change/

    >> Who’s coal do you think Japan will be burning?

    “Australia’s second-largest superannuation fund is preparing to dump its shares in companies that derive more than 10 per cent of their revenue from thermal coal mining as it embarks on the most aggressive immediate climate push of any large local investor.
    First State Super, which holds $130 billion in retirement savings, is distributing a new climate plan among its members detailing initiatives to shield their money from the threats of global warming, including setting a 30 per cent emissions-reduction target across its investment portfolio by 2023 and a 45 per cent cut by 2030.

    https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/top-super-fund-dumps-coal-miners-as-emissions-cuts-intensify-20200708-p55a1c.html

    HESTA dumps coal from super investments to meet 2050 zero emissions target

    https://www.abc.net.au/radio/programs/am/hesta-dumps-coal-from-super-investments/12395008

    50

    • #
      Bill In Oz

      Interesting Travis. The HESTA super fund draws it’s membership from nurses, and aged care sector.
      A large majority of these members are female and significant proportion have a recent migrant background.
      I doubt is HESTA are responding to their members in making this decision.
      Certainly nothing that I have seen sent to my lady who works in this sector was about this issue.
      So it is almost certainly a decision by woke higher ups in HESTA.
      Maybe it’s time to assess the rate of return change super funds ?

      34

  • #
    robert rosicka

    Fog was that heavy here in northeast Victoriastan the Bureau recorded 0.2mm in their gauge for two days .

    10

    • #
      Annie

      That’s the amount we have been recording here too. It is happening most days, whether from the fog, which was heavy for a few days, or from the dew anyway. I think quite a few mms. can be attributed to that.
      We have had over 600mms. so far this year so the dew/fog amount is probably a fairly small contributor, but certainly not non-existent.

      20

  • #
    Peter Fitzroy

    If we were to follow president Trump’s advice and cut down on testing, there would be no need to close any borders. After all, and despite the not quite lethal effects on lungs and the liver, there is nothing to worry about.

    After all the post of July 8 shows what he is made of. By the way that post, and the one about cancel culture posted today are filed in global warming, but there is no mention of that topic in either of those 2 posts.

    34

    • #
      el gordo

      Thats being a bit picky, I’ll pass it on to HQ.

      I have nothing further to add on Donald and the virus.

      11

    • #
      el gordo

      Before you go, looks like your manifestation is working.

      ‘Energy Minister Matt Kean said the “astounding” level of interest in the Central West precinct – with registrations of interest running nine times the earmarked capacity – meant it made “absolute sense” to go larger again in the north-east zone.

      “The New England REZ will be able to power 3.5 million homes and, when coupled with Central-West Orana REZ, sets the state up to become the number one destination across Australia for renewable energy investment,” Mr Kean said, adding it also marked the biggest commitment to clean energy in NSW history.’ SMH

      00

      • #
        yarpos

        The future is so bright, I am sure they are looking forward to shutting down Lidell.

        40

        • #
          el gordo

          Not sure on the strategy, decentralisation is no longer an issue and the authorities reckon this is better than a new Hele at Dubbo.

          00

      • #
        Another Ian

        Isn’t that a clash of pipe dreams?

        Wasn’t SA going to fill that NSW void with its interconnector project?

        00

  • #
    • #
      Bill In Oz

      Makes sense to me EG.

      12

      • #
        el gordo

        If its not the sun or CO2, what causes climate to change?

        20

        • #
          joseph

          Geo-engineering? :-)

          20

          • #
            • #
              joseph

              Thanks for posting eg . . . . . didn’t get a chance to get back here until now . . . . looks a good article.

              00

          • #
            el gordo

            Also …. this from Judith Curry.

            ‘The biggest unknown knowns relate to solar indirect effects, geological processes, century to millennial scale ocean circulations, Earth and sun’s magnetic fields, planet/moon gravitational effects, slow modes of the carbon cycle.

            ‘The known processes are solar variability, volcanic eruptions, internal variability of the ocean/atmosphere circulations and induced variations in cloudiness, fast modes of the carbon cycle.’

            20

        • #
          David Wojick

          If sufficiently chaotic, then constant solar input is sufficient to generate oscillating climate, which is what we see everywhere. All you need is something that wants to grow, say heat content and temperature, and a nonlinear negative feedback, say increasing cloudiness from increasing water vapor caused by the warming. The “struggle” between the growth and the feedback creates the irregular oscillations we call chaos or nonlinear dynamics.

          The cool thing about chaos is the the oscillations do not have an oscillating force causing them. Looking for this oscillating force is a form of blindness to possibilities.

          10

  • #
    Another Ian

    You thought it couldn’t get worse?

    “Science is racist, we need to do away with it and start over so non-whites can make some discoveries.”

    https://www.michaelsmithnews.com/2020/07/science-is-racist-we-need-to-do-away-with-it-and-start-over-so-non-whites-can-make-some-discoveries.html#comments

    40

    • #
      Bill In Oz

      Climate Warrior is a traitor to the science, technology & culture
      Which provided him with the life he enjoys.
      Ignorance abounds in the minds of such folk.

      12

    • #
      David Wojick

      Clearly on this crazy way of thinking western civilization is racist. That science is then racist is just a corollary. Of course then math is also racist, but maybe not algebra and Arabic numerals, or Egyptian time. Industry is certainly racist, including steam power and electricity. I suppose everything European and American (with Canada and Australia) since 1600 is racist. If only we could send these racism mongers back there, to start over.

      10

  • #
    robert rosicka

    288 new cases in Victoriastan! Anyone want a hug I just got back from Melbourne?

    70

    • #
      Serp

      Victoria may soon need to educate the public in logarithmic scales or simply suppress the numbers as other similarly enlightened administrations have done.

      21

  • #
    robert rosicka

    A good but brief look at the three Gorges Dam wall in this vid and it appears to be straight although dumping more water than the other day .
    This link does allow you to play the video at the top without giving up your email address .

    https://www.theepochtimes.com/city-downstream-of-three-gorges-dam-is-completely-inundated_3408492.html?fbclid=IwAR0YYxLoCBB-Jqlz0Hi_AS6SrlFBnomanndR7M5eI2rmJJUSy4M2HRt8gv8

    00

  • #
    robert rosicka

    Local faceache page has a post from an Argentinian just arrived to work at the new Solar Subsidy farm being built near Glenrowan , looking for a room to rent .
    I’m wondering a couple of things -

    Has he been through quarantine?
    Did he agree to a test?
    Do we not have workers in Australia qualified to do whatever it is he does ?

    10

  • #
    OriginalSteve

    Question about the Victoriastan debacle:

    * how many have died from the virus? If Im right and the virus is now much less lethal, id expect very low % deathrate

    * what is the current virus like? How much has it mutated from the original lab specimen?

    * if the virus is a wet blanket and not actually a real lethal danger, can we sue Herr Andrews for wrongful imprisonment?

    50

  • #
    Anton

    The latest idea, for those suffering dangerous lung complications due to SARS-CoV-2 (which is how it kills those who die directly of it), is to inhale appropriate steroid drugs, notably budesonide:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eDSDdwN2Xcg

    The Far Eastern countries where the death rate is conspicuously low are doing this, apparently, and doing it as a routine treatment – not waiting until people get severely ill.

    All of the google hits for budesonide + covid are of very recent date, so this appears to be recent information.

    10

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  • #
    el gordo

    The Global Times said on Friday that ‘the US had to come clean about a conspiracy theory that the coronavirus originated in the US and was linked to a US biotech lab in Kazakhstan.’ SCMP

    00