JoNova

A science presenter, writer, speaker & former TV host; author of The Skeptic's Handbook (over 200,000 copies distributed & available in 15 languages).


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Midweek Unthreaded

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Midweek Unthreaded, 9.0 out of 10 based on 25 ratings

223 comments to Midweek Unthreaded

  • #
    MudCrab

    Prepare your family for future Climate Change – Gift them jumpers for Christmas :D

    Stay safe, happy and stress free this Christmas. XXXXX

    120

  • #

    Bloomberg:

    Bushfires Release Over Half Australia’s Annual Carbon Emissions
    By Heesu Lee
    December 24, 2019, 1:00 PM GMT+11

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-12-24/bushfires-release-over-half-australia-s-annual-carbon-emissions?utm_source=twitter&utm_content=business&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&cmpid=socialflow-twitter-business

    They should graph declining management of “forest protection” areas against CO2 emissions. As if it even matters..

    170

    • #

      The current fires might just about show up on the OCO2 satellite sweeps. Nothing in the way of bushfire activity seems to have registered in the past four years. There is nothing new available, presumably because the satellite didn’t show what was expected, eg all those bad places pumping dreaded CO2 into the atmosphere.
      There is no CO2 flux in the southern hemisphere, in fact nothing of any significance whatsoever. NASA had a thing about CO over Australia, which must be some kind of diversionary tactic.

      130

    • #
      Spetzer86

      Just pellet everything up and ship it to the UK to burn in DRAX. Then it’s all a net-benefit, somehow.

      121

    • #
      OriginalSteve

      Note the attitude…..

      SA – the Marie Celeste of Australias states, its malaise heavily contributed to by economic suicide caused by following the UN endorsed renewables religion..pity…

      https://cleantechnica.com/2019/12/24/with-most-electricity-from-renewables-south-australia-has-lowest-utility-cost/

      “With Most Electricity From Renewables, South Australia Has Lowest Utility Cost

      “The other day, we had fun bashing Australian prime minister Scott Morrison, who wouldn’t know a fact if it bit him. While the man’s complete ignorance about the approaching climate catastrophe is loathsome, it doesn’t mean others in the country aren’t making progress in their attempt to lower Australia’s overall carbon emissions.

      “The government of South Australia has supported renewable energy for years, and its efforts have begun to bear fruit. The latest report on emissions published monthly by the Australia Institute shows that over the past two months, South Australia has derived 65% of its electricity from wind and solar — more than any other state.

      “Hugh Saddler, the author of the monthly audit and an associate professor at the Australian National University, tells The Guardian that wind and solar power supplied more than 50% of the electricity generated in South Australia for most months over the past two years. “That’s made electricity in SA the cheapest in the national electricity market and dramatically increased reliability.”
      …………
      “Overall, utility customers in South Australia will pay about $65 less for their electricity this year thanks to the availability of renewable energy. If you think that seems like a paltry amount, ask yourself this: When was the last time your utility bill went down?

      42

      • #
        Bill In Oz

        The author of that crap is Steve Hanley.
        ‘Steve writes… from his homes in Florida and Connecticut’
        In other words a bloody foreigner from over there in the USA
        ‘Trying to propagandise us poor South Australians.
        Utter bloody rubbish !

        120

      • #
        Graeme No.3

        In The Australian there was an article about falling electricity prices.

        Average wholesale prices $A per MWh. Source AEMO
        State……Dec. 2018……Dec. 2019
        Vic…………91.79……………56.23
        Tas………..72.13…………….45.69
        NSW………83.54……………53.13
        Qld………..79.18…………….57.59
        SA…………92.38…………….89.58

        Hugh Saddler, the author of the monthly audit and an associate professor at the Australian National University, tells The Guardian that wind and solar power supplied more than 50% of the electricity generated in South Australia for most months over the past two years. “That’s MADE ELECTRICITY IN SA THE CHEAPEST IN THE NATIONAL ELECTRICITY MARKET.
        I won’t make any comment on the associate professor’s intellect, command of simple arithmetic nor truthfulness, but then do I need to?

        150

        • #
          OriginalSteve

          I saw the article and figured its command of maths was ….interesting….shall we say….

          70

        • #
          David-of-Cooyal-in-Oz

          I notice he was only game to talk about “wholesale prices”, not retail. Perhaps they’re too hard to calculate? Or just too large??
          Cheers
          Dave B

          90

      • #
        PeterS

        Let SA commit economic suicide. It will be an good lesson to the the rest of Australia.

        50

  • #
    David Maddison

    I’m interested in any comments people have about the true reasons for William Happer’s resignation as a Trump adviser. Apparently his skepticism of anthropogenic climate change was not accepted by other Trump advisers.

    See the following article, although from a Leftist source.

    https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2019/09/why-high-profile-climate-science-opponent-quit-trump-s-white-house

    60

  • #
    David Maddison

    Tony Heller discusses Greta Thunberg’s latest comments on Australian bush fires which she blames on “the climate crisis” (the latest version of what it is now called).

    https://youtu.be/fiqcZH2r8l4

    80

  • #
    David Maddison

    Why we can ride horses but not very similar zebras.

    https://youtu.be/wOmjnioNulo

    50

  • #
    OriginalSteve

    A serious Machivallian move by the Climate Crew…..this is a tough move.

    They ate bringing the walls in…..they appear to be using govt agencies to codify the Big Lie…

    https://www.news.com.au/national/asic-to-target-climate-change-risks/video/216450ac0c1bf1a4403e042ec6ec4ba7

    “ASIC will begin targeting companies that fail to tell customers and shareholders about climate change risks on their business.

    “Starting next year, ASX-listed companies will have to reveal the dangers or face possible court action.

    “Surveillance work will likely involve extracting confidential documents from companies and interviewing senior executives and directors.

    60

    • #
      James Poulos

      Hi OS,

      Not that serious…

      Climate Change may harm your health, cause lung damage, cause birth defects, racka, racka, racka.

      Didn’t work on cigarette packs even with graphic designs – wont work on prospectus where traders and shareholders have skin in the game.

      This is only a move to placate the current generation of whingers.

      This year’s bush fires will cement common sense.

      Governments at all levels wont get away with paying lip service to forest management anymore and the majority wont cop climate change as an excuse for ducking responsibility for properly reducing fuel loads from now on.

      Too many people who can’t afford to lose everything have just lost everything.

      That comes at a high price with a certain amount of resentment and anger towards those who hide behind the global warming scare to justify spending tax payer money on less important ideological goals.

      I watch with interest next year to see how the general population reacts to alarmists protesters who disrupt daily routines.

      180

    • #
      Bobl

      If it were my company it would be, “there is no physical evidence that CO2 results in any negative effects, and the reduction of CO2 does not effectively address any of the risks related to warming climate. No action needs to be taken on CO2 to address climate risks.

      Then I might look at preexisting (natural) risks, IE the usual droughts and flooding rains.

      120

    • #
      ivan

      First question. Has ASIC actually defined, with real world concrete proved examples, what are the risks they are talking about?

      I ask because so far no one has managed to do that so why do they expect normal companies to do so.

      40

      • #
        OriginalSteve

        Its the apparent hint of heavy handed actions, based on the climate myth, that is loathesome, and may have real dire outcomes for companies.

        By way of comparison, if you had to cut a small hole in every door in your office for a mythical purple ozone eating beast to pass through, and you refused becauses its a complete crock and then got fined a big amount, would you feel anmoyed?

        Clinate change is also pure myth, but the similarities are striking.

        At what point is the State appearing to use its resources to prosecute a belief system and in effect codifying a State religion upon all people with real punishment if they refuse?

        40

      • #
        PeterS

        Such risks would have to include rising sea levels. So when are our coastal cities going to be relocated inland? Of course it will never happen because it’s all a scam.

        21

  • #
    Another Ian

    I posted a couple of fire sites yesterday

    https://www.firenorth.org.au/nafi3/

    and

    https://www.windy.com/?-26.581,147.612,9

    Then “More Layers” on the bottom of the choices on the RHS of the screen and then scroll down that list to “Active Fires”

    There has been a burn off somewhat south of us going on for a couple of days.

    This morning Firenorth shows it as 24 hours + old.

    Windy looks like a call out would be imminent. So maybe treat their results with caution.

    30

  • #
    Another Ian

    Re the “Sink Roundup” campaign

    ““Organic” Is The Latin Word For “Scumbag Lawyers” ”

    http://www.smalldeadanimals.com/index.php/2019/12/23/organic-is-the-latin-word-for-scumbag-lawyers/

    31

  • #
    Turtle

    Merry Christmas Skeptics! You’re all complete bloody legends and hats off to the lot of you.

    230

  • #
    Peter C

    Happy Christmas to Jo and family,
    and all who read this blog.

    230

  • #
    Annie

    Wishing Jo and her family and all who come here a very Happy Christmas! :)

    140

  • #
  • #
    • #
      Peter C

      HoHoHo. No wonder it got struck in moderation.
      Not PC at all.

      20

    • #
      Annie

      Thanks Beth….it was fun to watch that again :)
      Not at all PC, thank goodness; a great bit of silly fun.
      Now I’ll go back to my Christmas carols from Westminster Abbey.

      20

  • #

    My comment is awaiting moderation lol. An episode from a past BBC comedy program, guess it’s now woke, woke don’t do jokes.

    30

  • #
    pat

    23 Dec: MediaIte: Vogue Editors Mocked For Revealing Their INSANELY Elite Holiday Destinations
    By Charlie Nash
    Vogue editors were mocked this weekend for revealing the long list of elite and exotic holiday destinations they’ll be traveling to “detox” from Christmas.
    Though “How The Vogue Editors Are Spending Christmas This Year” was published on December 15, the article didn’t blow up on social media until this weekend, after one user earned nearly 40,000 Twitter likes for mocking the piece…

    In the article, deputy editor Sarah Harris revealed she would “be heading to the Cayman Islands to stay at the newly opened Palm Heights for Christmas and New Year,” while fashion features editor Ellie Pithers wrote she’ll “be in the French Alps for New Year’s Eve,” because “a dose of icy alpine air always seems to sort me out after the excesses of Christmas.”
    “I’m looking forward to a spell at Le Coucou in ***Méribel, a new hotel designed by Pierre Yovanovitch with a delicious-looking spa; and a stop-off at Le Refuge de Solaise in ***Val d’Isère. Only accessible via ski lift, it promises superlative stargazing and fresh powder before breakfast,” Pithers detailed…
    https://www.mediaite.com/print/vogue-editors-mocked-for-revealing-their-elite-holiday-destinations/

    PICS/VIDEO: 23 Dec: OnTheSnow: Snow report 23/12/19: The Alps is inundated with snow!
    PIC: The cars are playing hide and seek in ***Meribel today (23/12/19)
    If you’re thinking of booking a last-minute ski holiday this Christmas you’ll be spoilt for choice! Powder is plentiful across the Alps thanks to the non-stop December snowfalls. See our 7-day snowfall totals (LINK).
    The snow is particularly good in the French and Italian Alps where more than a metre of snow has fallen in the last week…
    VIDEO: Another morning under the snow in ***Val d’Isere (23/12/19) Credit Val d’Isere Tourism…
    PIC 2 MERIBEL: The cars are playing hide and seek in Meribel today (23/12/19)
    https://www.onthesnow.co.uk/news/a/634120/snow-report-23-12-19-the-alps-is-inundated-with-snow

    10

    • #
      pat

      have tried many times to post this yesterday & today, and failed, so trying without the url. to read all, just search for the headline:

      23 Dec: ProtomAloBangladesh: Winter woes likely to continue
      The already rising number of patients suffering from cold-related diseases is likely to go up. Excessive cold in many districts was also affecting crop production, farmers told the news agency.
      “Although the mercury might rise on Monday and Tuesday, the relief won’t last long,” meteorologist Monowar Hossain told UNB.
      “It feels chillier as the temperature has dropped by 6-7 degrees Celsius all over the country. The difference between day and night temperatures is too little,” he said.
      Jashore shivered at 9C on Sunday, the coldest temperature recorded on the day…

      UNB reporters from across the country reported dozens of people being hospitalised with cold-initiated diseases.
      In Kurigram, over 50 patients, mostly children, were admitted to the general hospital in the last three days with cold-related diseases, said resident medical officer Shahinur Rahman Sardar…

      In Sirajganj, in the last 48 hours, more than 50 people, mostly women and children, were admitted to government and private hospitals, civil surgeon Zahidul Islam was quoted as saying.
      In Khagrachhari, the number of people suffering from cold-related diseases in remote hilly villages was rising. Doctors said they are struggling to treat the excessive number of patients…

      50

  • #
    pat

    of course, Vogue and Teen Vogue are fully invested in CAGW:

    4 Oct: Vogue: The Seas Are Rising — And So Are They
    The youth activists speaking truth to world leaders about climate change.
    By Rebecca Bengal
    Three days earlier, approximately 4 million people in 185 countries had participated in coordinated global climate change strikes as part of the youth-led Fridays for Future movement begun by 16-year-old Swedish activist Greta Thunberg. Gore, whose 2006 film An Inconvenient Truth cast global warming as a “planetary emergency,” spoke to the cameras. “They’re here, basically, to shame the adults,” I heard him say.
    A moment later, another, more visceral murmur rippled through the security line as Thunberg walked swiftly past, her shirt a magenta blur, her braid swinging down her back, to deliver a call to action stinging with righteous anger.
    “We are in the beginning of a mass extinction, and all you can talk about is money and fairy tales of eternal economic growth,” she said. “How dare you?” …

    23 Sept: Vogue: How to stop eco-anxiety from consuming your life
    by Clare Press
    (Clare Press is Vogue Australia’s sustainability editor and the author of Rise & Resist: How to Change the World. She presents a podcast about sustainable fashion called Wardrobe Crisis)
    “Sometimes I cry about the koalas. Mostly, though, I’m too busy doing to allow the existential crisis to take hold.” – It’s normal to feel fear, frustration, anger and sadness in the face of the climate crisis, says Vogue Australia’s sustainability editor Clare Press, but here’s how to transform those emotions into eco-activism…
    A few months ago, a publicist pitched me a story on a brand’s philanthropic mission to clean up the litter on Mount Everest. It’s a fantastic initiative and I wrote the feature, but at the same time I wanted to scream: “How is there LITTER ON EVEREST?!” Must we pollute every peak, beach, waterway and forest, every corner of the globe?…

    40

    • #
      Peter C

      , but at the same time I wanted to scream: “How is there LITTER ON EVEREST?!” Must we pollute every peak, beach, waterway and forest, every corner of the globe?…

      I concur with the sentiment. Who is doing all this littering? Could it be greeny types?
      My credo is; “take your own rubbish home and dispose of it in the bin”.

      81

      • #
        Zane

        Most of the globe is empty of human influence. Everest Base Camp is a circus these days, full of macho trekkers and mountaineering types. Litter may be unsightly to western eyes, but poses little of a direct environmental hazard in that location. Someone will clean it up soon, especially if they are paid to do it. A well meaning French NGO was paying locals to clean up roadside litter near Siem Reap in Cambodia. At night the Khmers would sneak out and deposit new litter, to guarantee their jobs LOL. Balinese throw plastic bottles down any ravine, while the Muslims in southern Thailand dump big loads of garbage beside the roads between villages. I was taking a large riverboat down the Amazon from Manaus to Belem and the Brazilians on board were chugging down ice cold Antarctica beers and hurling the empties far out into the river. It will make no difference to anything, the Amazon and the Atlantic are big enough to absorb a few million cans and bottles. It may even provide useful homes for some octopuses or similar!

        We in the West worry far more about what we call litter than any developing country inhabitants do.

        In fact I was moseying around a big Buddhist temple in Thailand near Bangkok one time, and the monks had hung lots of different empty soft drink cans as a decoration from a big tree in the garden. They looked rather nice, shining in the sun. Different strokes for different folks.

        30

  • #
    pat

    23 Dec: Breitbart: BBC Accuses Boris Govt of ‘Trumpian’ Tactics Amidst Impartiality Row
    by Victoria Friedman
    A BBC editor has complained that Number 10’s boycott of Radio 4’s Today programme is a “Trumpian” plot to “delegitimise” the broadcaster.
    Ministers in Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s Cabinet have been noted for their conspicuous absence from the BBC’s flagship current affairs programme. Sources speaking to The Telegraph shortly after the Conservatives won their biggest majority since 1987 accused the BBC of biased coverage during the election and called on the taxpayer-funded broadcaster to launch an internal investigation into its coverage.

    “The BBC speaks to a pro-Remain metropolitan bubble in Islington, not the real world represented by Wakefield and Workington,” the source had said, while another source told The Times that the show was simply “irrelevant”.
    Sarah Sands, who has edited the BBC Radio 4 show for the last three years, told the station’s own Feedback programme that the popular government was acting in the manner of U.S. President Donald Trump, who frequently calls out the mainstream media for fake news and bias…
    “The government won a big majority, it sees Labour in disarray, it thinks it’s a pretty good time to put the foot on the windpipe of an independent broadcaster. So the strategy is quite Trumpian: to delegitimise the BBC,” she added…

    The BBC is putting on a woke show for Christmas this year, inviting climate wunderkind Greta Thunberg to guest edit an episode of the Today programme, where she will likely lambast Western countries for failing to downgrade their economies and living standards for climate change. While grime rapper Stormzy, who sung “fuck the government, fuck Boris” during his headline performance at Glastonbury, will be reciting a passage from the Bible on a Christmas day show…

    Despite these efforts to make the BBC appear relevant to current culture, the future of the broadcaster’s relationship with the youth remains in question after figures revealed that fewer than half of 16- to 24-year-olds say that they watch or listen to BBC content at least once a week. With a generation of Britons who do not see the BBC as a staple of their media intake, it will make justifying the licence fee harder in future. As a result, Ofcom warned in October that the “BBC may not be sustainable in its current form”…
    https://www.breitbart.com/europe/2019/12/23/bbc-accuses-boris-govt-of-trumpian-tactics-amidst-impartiality-row/#

    50

    • #
      WXcycles

      “The government won a big majority, it sees Labour in disarray, it thinks it’s a pretty good time to put the foot on the windpipe of an independent broadcaster. … “

      This is some definition of “independent” that I’m unfamiliar with.

      Last I looked the BBC was 100% dependent on tax payers and fully answerable to them through the elected govt in Parliament.

      No BBC, you are not ‘Independent’, you are parasitically, dependently living off the wallets of others, and generate no income of your own. Is there something you don’t understand about this?

      20

  • #
    Zane

    The green nuts plan to raid global pension funds to the tune of $100 trillion to fund their decarbonisation dream and the ” transition to renewables “. Bunch of bandits is what they are.

    71

    • #
      OriginalSteve

      They get a rude shock if they try….just sayin’

      20

      • #
        Kalm Keith

        They’ve already started “greening” many funds with dodgy “investments”.

        50

        • #
          Zane

          Yes, there is a Swiss company called Climeworks AG which has been raising funds to advance its technology, taking CO2 out of the atmosphere. Crazy and needless, but I can see investors wearing green goggles going for it.

          31

  • #
    David Maddison

    This is from 2017.

    https://www.dailywire.com/news/government-canada-claims-santa-claus-has-fled-emily-zanotti

    Government Of Canada Claims Santa Claus Has Fled The North Pole Because Of Global Warming

    By Emily Zanotti

    Bad news, kids: when Santa finishes his appointed rounds this evening, he’ll have nowhere to fly home to, according to the Government of Canada, because the North Pole has completely melted thanks to global Climate Change.

    According to “Weak Signals,” a project of the Canadian government designed to “conduct regular, ongoing environmental scanning to identify weak signals of possible change” across the globe, the North Pole is melting at such a rapid rate, it’s likely to be completely gone by this evening. As such, Santa has signed an “international agreement,” they say, to move his toy-making operation to the South Pole.

    50

    • #
      Greg in NZ

      Did anyone ask the penguins if they were OK with all these northern hemisphere ‘refugees in red’ arriving on their shores?

      Has the emperor penguin himself, Aptenodytes Forsteri, passed a royal decree allowing such foreign (cheap labour) imports?

      A little ‘scientific research’ turned up these temperature prognostications for Wednesday 25 December 2019:

      -24° C Arctic mean (DMI)
      -44° C Greenland Summit
      -26° C Amundsen-Scott South Pole
      -46° C Eastern Siberia
      +46° C NT/QLD border

      Please correct me if I’m wrong (said Michael Mann never) but that would make Earth’s mean temperature, on Christmas Day 2019, bang on zero degrees (0° C / 32° F). Tell me again – what are we supposed to be ‘panicking’ about?

      130

      • #
        Zane

        LOL. History shows Europe alone has gone through 17 distinct ice ages in the past million years. The greens have a big fat nothing to back their CO2/climate dogma.

        30

  • #
    pat

    24 Dec: Bloomberg: Mexico’s Renewable Power Suppliers Face Risks Under Grid Proposal
    By Amy Stillman; With assistance by Eric Martin
    Mexico’s Federal Electricity Commission is proposing to cancel some contracts and eliminate discounts on transmission costs for power generators to use its network, dealing the latest blow to Mexico’s budding private renewable energy market…
    The elimination of incentives for the private sector could significantly hamper investment in renewable energy and raise electricity costs for consumers, the report said…

    In addition to the planned cancellation of some permits and restructuring contracts, CFE proposes conducting studies with CENACE to set a limit on the amount of renewable energy allowed on the grid…
    Lopez Obrador has been criticized for failing to prioritize the environment when it conflicts with his energy goals. Last month, his government sought to change rules for clean-energy credits, allowing aging hydroelectric dams operated by Mexico’s state-owned utility to qualify. But the rule was suspended by a federal judge in December following injunctions from private power companies…
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-12-22/mexico-s-cfe-mulls-cutting-discounts-in-blow-to-renewable-sector

    novel length, detailed, totally negative:

    23 Dec: Vox: The Trump administration just snuck through its most devious coal subsidy yet
    How a new FERC order will help old, polluting power plants stay alive.
    By David Roberts
    Last week, the administration secured what might be its biggest victory yet on coal’s behalf.
    On Thursday, FERC approved the expanded use of the Minimum Offer Price Rule (MOPR) for a regional transmission organization called PJM…

    By defining anti-CO2 and pro-clean energy policies (among all the many state and federal policies that affect the cost of energy) as inherently distorting, Chatterjee and McNamee are effectively denying that CO2 is a harmful pollutant.
    It is buried behind a wall of acronyms and obscure technical disputes, but it is the same old climate denialism…
    https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2019/12/23/21031112/trump-coal-ferc-energy-subsidy-mopr

    60

  • #
    pat

    FakeNewsMSM – as one – have mocked and attacked the following, but I wish I could find articles I’ve seen in recent years, outlining China’s role in manufacturing wind turbines, or parts, for Siemens, etc:

    23 Dec: Breitbart: Donald Trump Issues One of His Greatest Takedowns of Windmills
    by Charlie Spiering
    In a speech to Turning Point USA activists in Palm Beach Florida, the president mocked the idea of a windmill-driven economy proposed by Democrats promoting the “Green New Deal” in Congress and on the presidential campaign trail…

    Trump noted the windmills were typically produced in China and Germany — sending pollution into the air and hurting the planet.
    “Whether it’s in China, Germany, it’s going into the air,” he said. “It’s our air, their air, everything right?”…READ ON
    https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2019/12/23/donald-trump-issues-one-of-his-greatest-takedowns-of-windmills/

    10 Dec: EconomicTimesIndia: Growth in India’s renewable energy sector has slumped to a five-year low
    Government officials said curtailment of generation by states and slowdown in overall electricity demand are the key factors behind the low renewable energy generation.
    By Sarita Singh
    NEW DELHI: Renewable energy generation grew at 5.7% in the seven months to October 2019, falling sharply from 28.5% in the year-ago period and 25% in 2018-19, data issued by the Central Electricity Authority (CEA) said…

    The growth has been around 20% per annum in the last five years. Data prior to 2014 is not available…
    Industry sources said Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Tamil Nadu and Rajasthan are some of the states curtailing renewable power even as the projects enjoy a ‘mustrun’ status. States are not letting renewable energy plants generate as they do not want to submit bank guarantees or letters of credit in favour of such plants…
    https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/industry/energy/power/growth-in-indias-renewable-energy-sector-has-slumped-to-a-five-year-low/articleshow/72899445.cms?from=mdr

    40

    • #
      pat

      too funny not to post:

      22 Dec: White House: Remarks by President Trump at Turning Point USA Student Action Summit | West Palm Beach, FL
      https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/remarks-president-trump-turning-point-usa-student-action-summit-west-palm-beach-fl/

      17 Dec: EnergyGlobal: China’s wind repowering market to boom
      by Sarah Smith
      According to a new report by Wood Mackenzie, China’s wind repowering market is expected to grow rapidly from 2023. More than 21 GW (cumulative capacity) of China’s wind turbine fleet is expected to be repowered over the next 10 years (2019-2028).
      Repowering refers to complete dismantling and replacement of old wind turbines at the original wind site. Wind farms older than 15 years are generally ideal candidates for repowering as the operation and maintenance (O&M) cost is 50% higher than that of wind farms younger than five years…

      Wood Mackenzie consultant Kevin Han: “Despite the potential, the market is likely to pay little attention to the repowering market in the near term due to the limited capacity of aged wind turbine fleet, lack of supporting policies and near-term focus on fulfilment due to expiring FITs.”

      A second driver of the repowering market boom is the declining availability of good wind resources for new wind projects. Most new projects after 2023 will be in regions with wind speeds below 6.5 m/s and have an internal rate of return (IRR) of no more than 10%. Repowering at 9-10 m/s sites could provide an IRR of over 15%. As subsidy cuts take effect and the new-build market slows, developers will increasingly focus on the repowering market for new investments.

      State-owned asset owners (SOEs) are expected to be key players in the repowering market, as they hold more than 83% of operating wind assets…READ ON
      https://www.energyglobal.com/wind/17122019/chinas-wind-repowering-market-to-boom/

      24 Dec: EnergyGlobal: Siemens Gamesa celebrates firm Scottish offshore order
      by Sarah Smith
      Siemens Gamesa Renewable Energy (SGRE) has announced the firm order to supply wind turbines for the 448 MW Neart na Gaoithe (NnG) offshore wind power project, being developed by the utility EDF Renewables in Scotland.
      The company will install 54 of its SG 8.0-167 DD offshore turbines, with a 167 m rotor dia. and 208 m tip height. The installation of the unique Direct Drive technology turbines at Neart na Gaoithe will take the figure of DD offshore turbines to beyond 2000 turbines that SGRE has sold worldwide…READ ON
      https://www.energyglobal.com/wind/24122019/siemens-gamesa-celebrates-firm-scottish-offshore-order/

      50

  • #
    Yonniestone

    A very Merry Christmas to all that frequent here, this year is special as we now have our Granddaughter living with us and experiencing her first traditional Christmas, there’s a lot of work and healing to do but I’m confident of success.

    We’d like to thank all that gave best wishes and advice here earlier in the year after tragic news and truly appreciate this from good people that are a priceless resource for those prepared to listen.

    John 3:16 For God so loved the world, that he gave his only Son, that whoever believes in him should not perish but have eternal life.

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    Travis T. Jones

    Seas ‘will swamp Sydney yearly’
    March 11, 2011

    https://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/nsw/seas-will-swamp-sydney-yearly/news-story/0fde6b9907218095a38346173aaa8663?sv=62e24ce837a77b99f6de5683be58b9d7

    “And scientists may have underestimated the sea level rises expected by 2100.”

    Merry Christmas and a safe silly season to all!

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    • #
      Travis T. Jones

      If only they had Ross Garnaut and his trusty carbon (sic) tax …

      Ancient seawall shows how ancestors tried to cope with rising seas

      https://www.reuters.com/article/us-archaeology-israel-climate-change/ancient-seawall-shows-how-ancestors-tried-to-cope-with-rising-seas-idUSKBN1YM28S

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      • #
        OriginalSteve

        Reminds me of the character Asterix…..always worried the sky would fall on his head.

        So Sydney becomes another Venice…cool…..just might need shark nets everywhere….

        50

        • #
          Travis T. Jones

          “So Sydney becomes another Venice…cool…..just might need shark nets everywhere…. “

          You couldn’t make it up. But, they do:

          SYDNEY, Feb. 24, 2007; Michael Archer, the dean of the science faculty at Sydney’s University of New South Wales -

          “[With the ice sheets at the poles and Greenland melting] the sea levels will be 100 meters (330 feet) higher than they are today.

          Forget Venice. I mean we’re talking about sharks in the middle of (downtown) Sydney.”

          https://abcnews.go.com/WNT/GlobalWarming/story?id=2866985&page=1

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          • #
            OriginalSteve

            100m?

            Were they smoking some powerful hallicinogens?

            20

          • #
            WXcycles

            Michael Archer, the dean of the science faculty at Sydney’s University of New South Wales

            What a pathetic hysteric, the public-funded ‘science’ swamp, is worse than having no Science faculty at all.

            20

        • #
          Greebo

          That wasn’t Asterix, Steve. Asterix was afraid of nothing. it was Vitalstatistix who feared the sky falling on his head.

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      • #
        Greg in NZ

        Seawall? We don’t need no steenking seawall!

        Mt Hermon in the stolen Golan Heights (the Lebanon / Syria / Israhell tri-border area) Christmas Day 2019:

        “heavy snow… 30 cm… max 0° C… wind chill -10° C”

        https://www.snow-forecast.com/resorts/mounthermon/6day/top

        Unless the climate was very different 2,000 years ago, shepherds would definitely NOT be out in the hills minding their flocks this time of year.

        Happy Third Day After Winter Solstice – shalom!

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          Lucky

          Oh dear! With news of another snowy winter in Israel there are two Ardenesque sneers:
          – for many years the Golan was controlled by the various Syrian dictatorships and used for attacks on Israel by artillery and terrorist gangs, eventually Israel had had enough and another middle east border was changed,
          – a word ‘Israhell’ is used to describe Israel, an odd description for a democratic if chaotic country where there is freedom of religion and groups such as gays and trans who are murdered in the neighborhood freely make their preferences known.

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          • #
            Greg in NZ

            Say what?!?!

            So far off the mark on so many points I’ll just leave it here.

            10

          • #

            Ah! Syria and The Golan Heights! Dumbness on a grand scale

            Eli Cohen, the legendary Israeli spy, felt such deep sympathy for those poor Syrian soldiers who had to man those immensely hot gun emplacements on the Golan Heights overlooking Israel. He got those Syrian commanders to plant trees alongside each of those gun emplacements so the ‘poor’ overheated soldiers could have some shade from the beating Sun.

            Two years after Cohen was finally captured, tortured, and publicly hanged, Israel launched The Six Day War.

            Message to pilots – when doing your bombing and strafing runs on the Golan Heights, aim for those only trees along the Heights.

            Israel took the Golan Heights in two days.

            Tony.

            PostScript – I have a short three part Series on that Six Day War at this link, if any wish to read about how the Mirage fighter played a big part in that

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      Ian George

      Here are the official sea levels for Fort Denison since 1914 to 2019.

      http://www.bom.gov.au/ntc/IDO70000/IDO70000_60370_SLD.shtml

      Can anyone see any change?

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      • #
        Graeme No.3

        Of course; it has risen 16cm in 100 years. That’s 1.6 millimetres a year!
        Why, within 42,600 years the Sydney Opera House will be submerged.

        20

  • #
    David Maddison

    Nobody in the enemedia seems to know anything about land subsidence vs sea level rise…

    https://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/05/01/in-some-coastal-cities-subsidence-now-exceeds-absolute-sea-level-rise-up-to-a-factor-of-ten/

    In some coastal cities, subsidence now exceeds absolute sea level rise up to a factor of ten

    Anthony Watts / May 1, 2014

    There is a story in the Daily Mail cited by the GWPF which talks about subsidence due to groundwater extraction. For example, North Jakarta Indonesia has sunk four meters in the last 35 years, with other parts of the city also affected, and the impact of subsidence combined with heavy rain and high tides can be seen in the photo at right.

    The gist of the study is that in some cities, subsidence is now exceeding sea level rise.

    It is something to think about and cite the next time there is an alarming story about sea level “inundating” some city with a coastal flood.

    Here are some excerpts and an abstract:

    Forget global warming and melting polar caps – groundwater extraction is causing cities to SINK beneath sea level

    Ground is dropping up to 10 times faster than the sea level is rising in coastal megacities, a new study says
    Scientists at Deltares Research Institute in Utrecht studied subsidence in five coastal cities, including Jakarta, New Orleans and Bangkok
    North Jakarta has sunk four metres in the last 35 years – a fall of 10 to 20cm per year and experts have called on governments to take action
    Land subsidence is contributing to larger, longer and deeper floods
    Total damage due to subsidence worldwide is estimated at billions of dollars a year and is set to increase

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  • #
    pat

    worth reading all:

    21 Dec: DuluthNewsTribune: Pro/Con: Was Trump right to pull out of Paris climate agreement? Yes, little was to be gained from the astronomical spending
    By Benjamin Zycher
    (Benjamin Zycher is a resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute (aei.org), a think tank in Washington, D.C.)
    One number is needed to illustrate the absurdity that is the Paris climate agreement: 0.17 degree Celsius. That is the temperature reduction in 2100 attendant upon the Paris greenhouse gas emissions reduction, which is the simple sum of the promises (“nationally determined contributions”) made by the participating countries. The U.S. contribution to that “achievement” is 0.015 degree Celsius. These figures are the modeling results using the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency climate model. There is no dispute about them.

    That global 0.17 degree Celsius includes the ostensible effects of the Obama 2015 pseudo-agreement with China, if it is meaningful. (It is not.) The Chinese promise that their greenhouse gas emissions will peak “around 2030.” How high will that peak be? No one knows. What will their emissions be after the peak? No one knows. What will happen if, or when, their emissions continue to rise after “around 2030”? Actually, we do know the answer to that: nothing.

    A full implementation of the Paris agreement would impose annual costs of at least 1 percent of global GDP, or $850 billion or more per year, inflicted disproportionately upon the world’s poor. (That is why there is a Green Climate Fund, which exists far more in theory than in fact.) Has anyone anywhere conducted a benefit/cost test under which the agreement makes any sense at all?

    Substitutes for fossil fuels are vastly uncompetitive. The international evidence on that is incontrovertible. Laughable claims that wind and solar power now are “competitive” ignore the massive subsidies, guaranteed market shares, and costs of backup generation and longer transmission systems. It is no accident that power costs in California now are the highest in the lower 48 states.

    And such substitutes are almost entirely a first-world luxury; for the most part, poor countries will respond to higher energy costs simply by consuming less…

    But, you say, is there not a looming crisis?

    Well, no. There is no evidence — none — in support of the “crisis” (or “existential threat”) view of anthropogenic climate change. Temperatures are rising, but as the Little Ice Age ended around 1850, it is not easy to separate natural from anthropogenic effects on temperatures. The latest research in the peer-reviewed literature suggests that mankind is responsible for about 0.5 degree Celsius of the global temperature increase of about 1.5 degree Celsius since 1850…

    Because the central ideological goal of the climate industry is to eliminate fossil fuels, the planet will never be saved, and the goalposts will be moved continually. Accordingly, the Paris agreement is silly and destructive as a strategy to engender environmental improvement. But it works beautifully as a mechanism to transform the climate industry into a perpetual-motion machine.

    President Donald Trump was wise to reject it.
    https://www.duluthnewstribune.com/opinion/columns/4826942-ProCon-Was-Trump-right-to-pull-out-of-Paris-climate-agreement-Yes-little-was-to-be-gained-from-the-astronomical-spending

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    robert rosicka

    Another aspect of planned fuel reduction we don’t hear about is how long it takes from the start of the process to final approval.
    Would anyone like to take a guess as to how long it takes to fill out the green tape from day one to implementation of the burn ?
    This is for Victoriastan!

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    MichaelinBrisbane

    Last Friday (20th) a car exploded into flames on the Riverside Expressway under the Kurilpa Bridge in Brisbane.
    Report’s I’ve seen don’t give many details, or the cause of the incident. Fortunately it seems no one hurt, so the matter will fade from from the news.
    It seems to me to be a spontaneous combustion event.
    Does anyone know the model of the car? I’m suspicious that it’s a battery job.
    If it is we need to press the point about their danger.

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    • #
      robert rosicka

      Usually these things make the news so you have to wonder .

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    • #
      GD

      Last Friday (20th) a car exploded into flames on the Riverside Expressway under the Kurilpa Bridge in Brisbane.

      As Tim Blair says, nothing green ever works.

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    • #
      Hanrahan

      There is a young fella does a blog Engineering Explained . After the release of the Tesla truck [which was pictured towing an empty horse float] he did a theoretical comparison between it and an F 250 towing a trailer up a gradient with a rise of 1 mile.

      This guy is good, he took everything you can think of into account and many you wouldn’t. His calcs showed that the Tesla wouldn’t make it. He worked the variables and concluded that an EV would need a X3 increase in energy density before any EV could match an ICE truck for towing.

      Imagine the new Die Hard movies with this extra density, one bullet in the battery and it’s New Year’s every day.

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        OriginalSteve

        Empty horse float….hmmm…..

        Each horse is about half ton, if you have 2 it’s about a ton, plus trailer, so close to 2.5 ton.

        Another story of interest….we were out 4WD. We had a 2 ton petrol V8 Lexus 470 ( I.e. a Toyota landcruiser ) with a 3 ton trailer on.

        We got to this rocky 30 degree incline we had to traverse. Lowered tyre pressure to 20 psi and then stuck it into LL4 and this thing just chewed it’s way through the soil and rocks up the hill , spraying dirt and rocks everywhere. Truly amazing to watch.

        Now, my mate said when your out 4WDing, fuel consumption moves from an urban L/100km to L per hour. Try and make a battery big enough to do such similar stuff….the battery would take up a trailer. On the same trip we had to cross the Murray at Tom Groggin….water up to windscreen almost, all diffs locked and it was still scrabbling for grip. Now get a bit of water in a battery and she go bang……

        But now try and find a charger in the back of beyond and sit there for 12 hours waiting for the huge long range batteries to charge. Electric for 4WDing is the stupidest idea ever…….

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      william x

      The ABC reports a car explodes.

      Msn reports a car explodes

      The Brisbane Times reports a car has burst into flames.

      News.com reports a car had caught fire.

      Which headline is true?

      I have watched the ABC video of the incident.

      The car is involved in fire as a result of a traffic accident.

      The car is intact. All body work including doors are in place which is an indication that the vehicle has not exploded.

      The car has no fire on the ground around it which means that there has not been a breach in a fuel tank.

      What your see and hear in the footage is the horn continually sounding, so battery supply is still available at this time. A jet of fire is seen propagating from the LHS front passenger compartment. There is subsequently a loud bang from the front of the passenger compartment. In my opinion this is likely due to undeployed airbags venting and “exploding”, not the car itself.

      I have attended hundreds of car fires.

      This car did not explode.

      So which headline is closest to the truth?

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      • #
        OriginalSteve

        It’s like a lot of things these days…people are so rushed they don’t make time to check the facts. That said, the msm is likely to think an airbag deploying doesn’t sound interesting enough, so it becomes an “explosion”…..

        The msm have a long history of exaggeration to promote capturing readers attention……

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      Greebo

      Looking at the pic I’d say it’s an elderly Toyota Camry.

      00

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    robert rosicka

    Merry Christmas to all the regular and new contributors to Jo’s forum .

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    So then, here it is, the night before Christmas.

    Here’s a prediction for tomorrow, Christmas Day.

    Total Power consumption on this day will be the lowest total for the year, and far and away the lowest, lower than the year round average by 12%, for an almost mid Summer day when power consumption is considerably higher than the average, and tomorrow, Christmas Day, it will be 20% lower than that Summer Average, and when compared to a working week day barely 5 days earlier than Christmas Day, last Friday, power consumption on Christmas Day will be a whopping 25% lower than that.

    The Load Curve will look more like that of a Winter Load Curve, with two distinct peaks, one each in the AM and then a slightly larger peak at around 6/6.30PM.

    The power consumed at the normal Summer’s working day peak at around mid afternoon will be (around) 8000MW to 10000MW LOWER on Christmas Day, and when compared to that large power consuming day last Friday, it will be around 12000MW PLUS lower.

    And yet, if you were to believe the news media and how home airconditioning is to blame for high power consumption days, then this one single day makes a mockery of that.

    This is the ONE day of the year when nearly all the work force is in their own home, and being a mid Summer’s day, then there is every probability that they will have their airconditioners all switched on, and EVERY home will be consuming more power during the day than they usually do on days when they are all at work and school.

    And yet here we have the lowest power consumption day of the year, not ….. JUST, but far and away the lowest.

    There will be the same behind the meter not getting out of its local area rooftop solar power being generated, but virtually every single watt of that will be being consumed by the home itself, as they are all at home.

    I can very confidently predict all this a day out because it is the same each and every year.

    You can count on it.

    Perhaps for the weekend, I’ll do a comparison just to see how close I really was this year, but hey, if it’s been the same each and every year, nothing changes eh!

    Tony.

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    • #

      Christmas morning Base Load t around 4AM, the minimum power consumption for the day was 17200MW. (last Friday morning 19600MW)

      Of that Christmas morning Base Load, coal fired power delivered 85%. Wind power delivered 7.5%

      Tony.

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    Hanrahan

    I ‘spose this comes under the “Some mothers do ‘av ‘em” heading.

    I’m a BIG fan of old fashioned hydro, you know where you build a dam, generate power from the water released, and then used that water for agriculture or domestic use. Posted to that effect on a forum.

    One educated idiot claimed that hydro only has a capacity factor of 50% [that would vary wildly, but let's carry on] and that adding pumped hydro can achieve 100%. The mind boggles.

    Now this wasn’t a kid fresh out of high school it was a hardened green warrior of 10+ years. If such a simple concept is beyond them how can we change minds?

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    • #
      Graeme No.3

      Hanrahan:

      CO2 can do lots of things, cause warming and lots of snow, cause more hurricane/cyclones/tornadoes except in the numbers (but they’re stronger, more destructive etc.) cause bushfires, drought and rain, so why shouldn’t it cause pumped hydro to be thermodynamically impossible?
      It is just the usual green waffle avoiding science as usual, and equally certainly wanting someone else to pay for his fantasy.
      Ignore him and have a Happy Christmas.

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      OriginalSteve

      Because they are scientifically illiterate, is why…….

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    Henry

    Don’t know if this has been posted yet, seems like a lot of the fires were set on purpose?

    https://www.thesenior.com.au/story/6553022/firebugs-blamed-for-destructive-qld-fires/#!

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    • #
      Bill In Oz

      Not here in the Adelaide Hills last week.
      In fact the branch of an overhanging tree
      Fell on power lines
      Causing the fire at Cudlee Creek.
      Which rapidly spread on Northerly winds.
      So why was a tree branch doing so close to power lines ?
      this could well be a big class action law suit.
      Over 30 vineyards, wineries and orchards burned;
      Eighty six houses and 2-300 sheds & outbuildings;
      And one person dead with many more injured by the fires.
      I wonder if SA Power Networks
      Has been skimping on clearing the lines ?
      Or if this was a house holder’s private power line
      Which was not kept clear of trees ?
      Whatever the long term will be a legal nightmare !

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    Dave in the States

    Pat has already alluded to it, but the MSM is in an uproar this morning in N America about Trump ripping on wind turbines. Love it.

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  • #

    Great work all and a promising new year ahead!

    By way of facilitating communication, here is my crude (but free) textbook — “Issue Analysis: An Introduction to Issue Trees and the Nature of Complex Reasoning.”

    http://www.stemed.info/reports/Wojick_Issue_Analysis_txt.pdf

    It explains the logical form of complex issues like climate change, which is a tree structure that I discovered and named the Issue Tree. It is also about drawing diagrams of issue trees. These can be helpful, but the big thing is just to understand the structure you are dealing with. This tree like structure is a primary reason why complex issues are hard to deal with.

    The basic point is that when you say something in the climate change debate, there are multiple responses. And most of these responses have multiple responses, and so on. Thus the number of things to be said increases exponentially with level of detail. The issue “blows up” wherever you touch it.

    Also, speaking and writing are linear sequences of sentences, which do a poor job of traversing a complex issue tree. This is what I call “the jumping problem” and it is explained in the book.

    The book is crude because it was just for my personal use when I taught issue analysis at Carnegie Mellon. Plus it was done on an ancient mechanical device called a typewriter.

    If anyone wants to actually dig into this stuff I will be happy to help. Just email me personally.

    Onward!

    David

    The Climate Change Debate Education Project
    http://ccdedu.blogspot.com

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    Travis T. Jones

    - Gen Z, iGen, or Centennials (late 90s to 2010)
    - Millennials or Generation Y (1980 to late 90s)
    - Thirteeners or Generation X (1965 to 1979)
    - Baby Boomers (1946 to 1964)
    - Traditionalists or Silent Generation (1925 to 1945)
    - G.I. Generation (1900 to 1924)

    No one said it better than the Who from the Boomers Generation in 3. 27 minutes:

    1965, My Generation: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qN5zw04WxCc

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  • #
    robert rosicka

    A Christmas story for the hard left socialist green by the hard left socialist green , with a warning of the doom that awaits us .

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-12-25/christmas-hope-in-birth/11825164

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    Vishnu

    From Vishnu, your occasional but well-meaning, friendly drive-by shooter. Seasons greeting to Jo, David and pugilistic and sometimes rabid defenders of the blog. Thanks, Jo and contributors for great content in 2019. The reams outs, derision and pointing out of establishment hypocrisy make one cringe. It’s just insufferable.

    Among friends, simply for raising your points, I am in now in the denier class, having to hand in my Extinction Rebellion card, road glue, and Greta fanboy club membership. They even make me march up the back on demos.

    To earn my keep – I offer two clay pigeons for post Xmas dissection – https://www.csiro.au/en/News/News-releases/2019/Seasonal-forecasts-challenged-by-Pacific-Ocean-warming

    https://www.uow.edu.au/media/2019/el-nio-has-rapidly-become-stronger-and-stranger-according-to-coral-records.php

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      Bill In Oz

      The first is from someone named Spphie Schmidt
      CSIRO’s communications director
      ( IE Their own in house journalist )
      She writes this interesting statement :
      “The PDO has two phases, cold and warm….During a PDO cold phase, the tropical Pacific Ocean temperatures are lower, and Australia’s decadal rainfall tends to be above average….Under warm phases, the opposite occurs, with below average rainfall.”

      So by this logic cold water generates more rainfall..
      And Warm water generates less rainfall!..

      Very curious as it’s the exact opposite to what I would expect.
      Warm water generates more evaporation and thus more rainfall
      Colder water generates less evaporation and thus less rainfall..
      Or is my simple scientific understanding
      Superceded by some new wizz bang super duper new ‘science’ ?

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      • #
        AndyG55

        “Warm” phase means warmer oceans in the eastern tropical Pacific, which usually means cooler water around Australia, hence less rainfall…

        As over the last few years… hence drought.

        Neither you or her is incorrect, just that she didn’t describe things very well.

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        • #
          Bill In Oz

          Yes Andy that’s right !
          When there is a warm water current off the coast of South America
          They get rain in floods.
          When the water off Eastern Australia is cool we get reduced rainfall.

          But Ms Sophie Schmidt, the CSIRO’s communications director
          Does not understand this at all…
          What next from our beloved publicly funded CSIRO !
          They are supposed to be the science experts.

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      robert rosicka

      Funny stuff Vishnu merry Christmas and without looking at the link from the CSIRO is it going to be any better than no snow by the year 2020 ?

      20

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    Vishnu

    And Merry Xmas Ken Stewart, destroyer of my faith in all ground observations in 2019. I have found a site not subject to bitumen roads and heat islands.
    https://www.nationalgeographic.com/adventure/2019/06/mount-everest-highest-weather-station/

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    • #
      Greg in NZ

      V, in that NatGeo cover photograph, why oh why are those scientists and sherpas dressed in layers of protective clothing – padded jackets with hoods, gloves, boots – in a style reminiscent of the Chosen Child of Th/UN/berg?

      Surely at those heights the dreaded runaway warming thingy would be literally COOKING them in their own juices! It’s understandable why they’re wearing ‘gas masks’ as the carbon pollution up there must be horrifying, yet as every 16-year-old knows, heat rises, so it must be hot as Hades (or the North Pole) atop that limestone summit cap. Besides, how did ancient coral reef become the highest mountain peak on the planet?

      Happy sceptical wishes to one and all! :-)

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    AndyG55

    I dare you all to have a good Christmas – New Year …

    .. and release lots of CO2 from cooking and beverages and pretty lights etc.

    As of Friday, I will be enjoying myself in Tasmania for a week or so.

    Taste of Tassie
    .. yummmmm

    No time, inclination or computer for internet access. :-)

    See ya’s all some time in the new year.

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    David Maddison

    On electric and gas utilities bills in Australia there is a daily “service to property” charge that applies no matter how little or how much you use. Does this have any genuine economic purpose or is it just there to disguise the true cost of electricity or gas? Do they have it in other countries?

    60

    • #
      AndyG55

      Infrastructure costs money. Providing and maintaining links within the network, costs money.

      For instance, If a local substation needs an upgrade, it seems fair that everyone connected to that substation should help pay equally for that work.

      I see no problem with service charges + usage charges.

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    OriginalSteve

    From my perspective as a Christian, I was reflecting on my joy of knowing the love of God by Him providing Jesus to us. My hope is everyone might get to know this joy, it changes everything….

    “For God so loved the world that He gave His one and only Son, that everyone who believes in Him shall not perish but have eternal life.” ( John 3:16 ).

    As a parent myself, I think about the enormity of that statement and it’s truly humbling.

    Have a happy and wonderful break, and keep speaking truth – it always wins.

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    Another Ian

    “Just in time for Christmas dinner, the Trump administration rolls out a web site to help you win political debates. (I love the URL)
    This of course assumes the snow flake being debated even knows how logic and debate works.

    https://snowflakevictory.com/

    https://chiefio.wordpress.com/2019/12/24/w-o-o-d-24-december-2019-the-christmas-solstice-wood/#comment-121655

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      Another Ian

      That will likely cause some indigestion

      30

    • #
      TdeF

      Absolutely correct. After 8 years of failure, Obama tried to take credit for Trump’s immediate and long lasting success.

      Obama’s appalling Arab Spring was a total disaster for millions, making Libya, Syria, Egypt and more countries disaster areas off the tourist map, wrecking whole countries and destroying lives and incidentally destroying the major source of cash for struggling nations, tourism. The ancient city of Aleppo was completely destroyed after 2,000 years with Obama’s Arab spring and no one is better off. Who armed ISIS? And Christians are now besieged throughout the Middle East, Africa and increasingly in Europe thanks to the EU open borders and endless isl*mic terrorist attacks. Je Suis Charlie? Hollywood lied, but they are all virtue signalling actors, posers and pretenders. As the respected English Actor Anthony Hopkins said, actors are idiots. He isn’t.

      And China and North Korea and Iran are all on notice that the US is no longer going to be the patsy in their quest for world domination. It’s about time.

      Trump, Johnson and our Morrison are all a signal to the world that the socialists who call themselves Liberals, like Turnbull, are the enemies of freedom. And bushfires are not climate change. If weather is not climate, then bushfires are not climate change. They are just bushfires.

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        TdeF

        And for socialist rabble like AOC who has just declared the United States a Fascist state, I have news. The Fascists were all socialists, like herself. They were the entire problem in WW2 responsible for wrecking the planet. And they were green tree hugging vegans as well.

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      OriginalSteve

      I laughed out loud when I saw the URL!!!!!!

      I’ve also warned the PC lovers I know that I won’t be tolerating PC any longer, so any encounters will be truly bruising ( verbally ) if they try it on.

      You get to a point in life when you just say enough is enough , PC is societal poison and I’m done with it.

      “No prisoners” policy from here on in……

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        OriginalSteve

        By the way, what drives this seeing kids damaged and scared by PC. It traumatized them and our job as parents is to protect our kids……

        20

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    liberator

    So when is Xmas and the “festive season” (along with other religious celebrations) going to be banned? How much travelling occurs over the festive season? – Families getting together (flying, driving etc) just to consume, surly they can just Skype! How dare they!!!

    Thousands of flights, travellers on the road, millions of tonnes of food consumed and much of it MEAT. So much consumption and waste, food waste, packaging, unwanted gifts – endless consumption! How dare they!

    Then thousands of tonnes of fireworks explode over the night sky on new years. While people congregate in the cities to observe the spectacular, drinking, eating, partying. How dare they!

    Time to ban these religious festivals, Easter next – chocolate consumption, aluminium to wrap the chocolates – where will all end? We’re ruined. How dare we!

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    pat

    a very merry Christmas to Jo, David & family, all the data collectors, comment-ators, moderators and friends of Joannenova from a lovely, cool and wet South-east Queensland.

    24 Dec: Internat’lBusinessTimes: Climate Change News: How Christmas Is Now Affected By Global Warming
    By Palash Ghosh
    A warming climate in Denmark could make it possible for Danish Christmas tree producers to cultivate the noble fir along with the Nordmann fir, which has been the most popular model of holiday trees in the country for decades…

    Meanwhile, China, which neither celebrates Christmas nor grows Christmas trees, has become the world’s largest producer of artificial and plastic yuletide trees and decorations. In the Chinese city of Yiwu about 1,000 firms manufacture plastic Christmas goods, accounting for 60% of global production…
    https://www.ibtimes.com/climate-change-news-how-christmas-now-affected-global-warming-2890618

    Church leaders use Christmas message to call for climate action
    The Sydney Morning Herald – 23 Dec 2019

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    pat

    Bloomberg Drops Vendor Connected to Prison Labor
    by Matt Stevens
    NYT – 24 Dec 2019
    Michael R. Bloomberg said on Tuesday that his presidential campaign would no longer work with a vendor after learning of a subcontractor that had been involved in using prison workers to make phone calls on behalf of his candidacy.
    Details of the campaign’s connection to prison labor were first reported by The Intercept on Tuesday morning. Hours after the article was published, Mr. Bloomberg posted a statement on Twitter confirming that the article was accurate and saying that his campaign had “immediately ended our relationship” with the companies involved…

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    pat

    ?????

    24 Dec: USA Today: Were the predictions we made about climate change 20 years ago accurate? Here’s a look
    by Doyle Rice; Contributing: The Associated Press

    Penn State University meteorologist Michael Mann argued that we underestimated the rate of ice sheet collapse, which has “implications for future sea-level rise.”…
    Mann told USA TODAY that we “underestimated the dramatic increase in persistent weather extremes like the unprecedented heat waves, droughts, wildfires and floods we’ve witnessed in recent years.”

    Since 1993, there have been 212 weather disasters that cost the United States at least $1 billion each, when adjusted for inflation.
    In total, they cost $1.45 trillion and killed more than 10,000 people. That’s an average of 7.8 such disasters per year since 1993, compared with 3.2 per year from 1980 to 1992, according to NOAA…

    “Just as climate models almost certainly underestimate the impact climate change has already had on such weather extremes, projections from these models also likely underestimate future increases in these types of events,” Mann wrote in The Washington Post last year.

    “By and large, our models have gotten it right, plus or minus a little bit,” said Zeke Hausfather, a University of California-Berkeley scientist…

    “The global temperature projections were just about on the money,” Mann said…READ ALL
    https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2019/12/24/climate-change-predictions-2020-carbon-dioxide-weather-disasters/2622212001/

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    So, then, let’s hope Daniel Andrews gives credit where it’s due, eh! (Fat chance that happening)

    Loy Yang A Unit 2 came back on line yesterday morning at 11AM, and rose to 300MW, (60%) and has been at that level since.

    So now, ALL ten coal fired Units in Victoria are delivering power to the grid, and in fact, Victoria is delivering power in four States (Victoria, and via three Interconnectors into NSW, Tasmania, and SouthAus)

    So, those ten Units are delivering 4500MW of their 4690MW Nameplate at a Capacity Factor of 95.3%, and if that extra 230MW was available from that 60% LoyYangA2, then it would be operating over 100%.

    From ancient, decrepit, failing, old tech, unreliable, coal fired power.

    Victoria is currently consuming 3761MW of power and 4500MW is coming from coal, so the rest can be transferred to those other three States.

    And with coal fired power delivering the bulk of all power across Australia, the cost per Unit for electricity is between $28 QLD and $30 to $32 per MWH in the other States with only the hydro in Tassie at $50.

    Who would EVER believe that coal fired power is so much cheaper than all the others, eh!

    Oh, and wind power across those same five States is at just under 600MW at a CF of 8.4% and delivering just 2.6% of all that required total, and keep in mind that the total is 10,000MW lower than it was on Friday of last week, so that’s 2.6% of a dramatically lowered total.

    Tony.

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      Zane

      Yay for coal. I am now consuming a cold beer, thanks to it.

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        Right now, 1.35PM, the cost per Unit in five States is under $17.40/MWH, with coal fired power delivering 65% of all power and wind delivering 2.5%

        So, who would have thought, that with wind power delivering virtually nothing, the cost of power is the cheapest it will ever be.

        Even the pumped hydro crowd are cashing in, pumping the water back up the hill.

        Sort of goes against the meme eh!

        Tony.

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          Another Ian

          Maths lessons still needed

          “Bloomberg: RCP8.5 Climate Catastrophe is Unlikely – Because of Cheap Renewables”

          https://wattsupwiththat.com/

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            Another Ian

            A conclusion from that article:-

            “When climate academics make absurd claims about the terrifying 110+ heatwaves which will make entire nations uninhabitable, they lose the members of the audience who actually experience such conditions on a regular basis in their every day working lives.”

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      observa

      One to watch with currently installed wind turbines as the grid regulator asks the hard question.
      I have a hunch wind turbine owners wouldn’t like to provide the answer.

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    David Maddison

    I did the following exercise.

    I added up the total capacity of coal power plants in Australia as listed in Wikipedia = 24,767MW for 20 plants so average size per plant of 1,238MW.

    There are also 94 visually and audio polluting wind subsidy farms of total nameplate capacity of 5,679MW (representing 2,506 stinking windmills). Now, since the capacity factor is only 30-35%, this means the true total windmill output is just 1,703-1,988MW or a mere 18MW to 21MW per subsidy farm.

    Another way to look at it is the total true capacity of all Australian wind subsidy farms is only 37% to 60% bigger than just ONE proper power station.

    It hardly seems worth destroying our economy for, does it?

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    Another Ian

    “Record temperatures and random chance”

    http://catallaxyfiles.com/2019/12/26/record-temperatures-and-random-chance/#comments

    Jo gets a mention in comments

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    David Maddison

    Go to link for full story.

    https://tallbloke.wordpress.com/2019/08/28/eu-destroys-700000-hectares-of-rainforest-for-biofuels/

    EU destroys 700,000 hectares of rainforest for biofuels

    Posted by oldbrew

    H/T The GWPF

    All those trees would have absorbed large amounts of the carbon dioxide they claim to be so scared of. Somehow all this is deemed to be ‘sustainable’, using the climate excuse.

    The EU wants to save our climate with supposedly green biofuels and has deemed palm oil “sustainable”. Yet on the other side of the globe, rainforests are being clear-cut to produce the 1.9 million tons of palm oil that end up in European fuel tanks every year, says Rainforest Rescue.

    The European Union wants to protect the climate and reduce carbon emissions from motor vehicles by blending fuels with increasing shares of supposedly eco-friendly “biofuels”.

    Last year, 1.9 million tons of palm oil were added to diesel fuel in the EU – in addition to millions of tons of equally harmful rapeseed and soybean oils.

    The plantations needed to satisfy Europes’s demand for palm oil cover an area of 700,000 hectares – land that until recently was still rainforest and the habitat of 5,000 endangered orangutans. Despite the clear-cutting, the EU has classified palm oil as sustainably produced.

    This policy has now blown up in the legislators’ faces, with scientists confirming what environmentalists and development experts have long asserted: biofuels help neither people nor the environment – and they are most certainly not climate-neutral, as even studies commissioned by the EU show.

    Biodiesel from palm and soybean oil, but also from European-grown rapeseed, has a larger carbon footprint than diesel from fossil sources.

    The EU must scrap its biofuels policy immediately, but the agri-industry is fighting hard to maintain the status quo. Not surprising, when one considers that biofuels are currently subsidized to the tune of 10 billion euros in the EU alone.

    Decision making in the European Union is a long process and involves many different actors that bring in studies, reports, arguments, and numbers. Hundreds of industry lobbyists seek to influence this process and they are trying hard to protect their financial interests.

    Next, the European Parliament and its committees along with the Council of the European Union will need to agree on a compromise based on the proposal published in October 2012.

    Background

    Every year, 14 million tons of so-called biofuels are blended with gasoline and diesel in the EU. This is slated to increase to 30 million tons by 2020, enough to replace ten percent of the fossil fuel share.

    Ever-increasing quantities of biofuels, or resources such as palm and soybean oil required for their production, are being imported from overseas.

    Read more here.

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    mark jones

    First off, Merry Xmas to everyone, including Jo and David for allowing us to ground our sanity with this blog.

    Righto, a number of months back David submitted his thesis on the solar influence of our weather and therefore, our climate(The statistical measure of weather in the past in the attempt to conjure a future outcome) He had difficulty in finding the reason why there was a decade or so lag in solar change resulting in a weather change..the notch filter..Last week, I was reading a post by David Archibald over on WUWT. Typical of David’s extensive posting ability. What got my attention though, was a post by Vukcevic in the thread portion. He hypothesised a link..a delay of ten years or more..linking changes in the Earth’s magnetic field and global SSTs. To quote-

    Global SST appear to follow the changes in the strength of the Earth’s magnetic field with a strong inverse correlation and about 10 years delay.

    http://www.vukcevic.co.uk/SST-GMF.htm

    Underlying hypothesis is based on the basic laws of physics, but is it credible?
    One of the basic principles of electromagnetism is that a force is required to move a conductor through magnetic field, due to the electric current induction (back EMF force), stronger the field greater the resisting force.
    Saline sea water is a good electric conductor, hence, as the Earth’s magnetic field weakens the oceans’ current circulate just a bit faster moving more heat and the further towards the poles than is the case at the times of the stronger magnetic field. Ocean currents have low velocity taking few years to move large volumes of subsurface warm water for the temperature change to take full effect.

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    mark jones

    Vukcevic argues the magnetic field but what would be the effect of a reducing solar emf of which David Evan’s thesis indicates, acting on that magnetic field and therefore the surface tempertures of our oceans.

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    mark jones

    EMF..gads… that should have read TSI

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    mark jones

    EGADS..it has been 3 years since David put up his thesis!

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    Okay then, the usual happened with power generation on Christmas day.

    Rooftop solar generates what it always does around this time of year, and all of that was consumed either by the homes with the panels, or homes in the general vicinity of those ones with panels, and because everyone is actually in their homes on this one day of the year and not at work and school, all their power is coming from the roof ….. AND the extra from the grid, because they will all be consuming more on this day, so none goes back to the wider grid, well, none ever goes back to the wider grid anyway, all consumed by homes in that general sub station area, as none goes back past that sub station.

    So then, what happened with the power generated by the power plants?

    That’s where the cost for power is actually sorted out, because rooftop solar has no effect on power plant generated power for sale at wholesale to the AEMO for distribution by the retailers.

    Across the whole of Christmas Day, the minimum power generated, (the Base Load) was 17150MW, around 2500MW LOWER than on a normal working week day at this time of year. It rose for a peak in the AM at around 20500W. By then, the solar power plants started to kick in, not rooftop solar, but actual power plants that charge money for the power they generate. Power generation then rose a little to 21500MW, and then, unlike any other day in Summer, power generation fell back to 17900MW at around 1.30PM. It then rose again to the evening peak for those power plants of 21950MW. Now, note that peak, because at that same time last Friday evening, the peak was a tick under ….. 10,000MW HIGHER. Christmas Day power generation stayed around 21900/950MW for around an hour or more and then fell away, heading back towards the Thursday morning minimum Base Load again.

    That’s the highs and lows for the day.

    So, across the whole of Christmas Day, the average power generation came in at 19260MW. That’s a huge 4100MW lower than the year round average, a drop of 18% on that average. However it’s a drop of 25% on the average power generation for Summer days. That’s 25%, only three quarters of what is usually generated by those power plants.

    Righto then, how about coal fired power. How much of all that did it contribute?

    There is a total of 16 coal fired power plants in all, and at those plants, there are 48 Units in total. Currently, only TWO of those Units which are off line, one each in NSW and Queensland. The total operational maximum Nameplate is 23000MW.

    At the morning Base Load, those Units were delivering 85% of the power and at the evening peak, when required the most they were delivering 79%. That 79% ran in at 17500MW. Unlike other days, they were just humming along at that rate, running at less than maximum, because they normally deliver 19500MW when working at optimum, so on Christmas Day, they could operate at less than maximum, because less power was required.

    So, across the whole day, those 46 of 48 coal fired Units delivered 80.4% of ALL the generated power.

    I watched the cost for power at occasions during the day, and I have one image to show you of that. It’s no good just talking about it without having some proof that it actually happened eh, otherwise those green friends of the dirt could just say it never happened, so here I have proof that it did happen, and that’s shown at the image at the following link, the NEM Dispatch Overview, the cost chart and distribution details.

    NEM Dispatch Overview (taken at 1.05PM Christmas Day Wednesday 25Dec 2019)

    Note that at this time the cost in Tasmania was $51.90/MWH, and in the other five States, it was all lower than $17.65/MWH, with Queensland the lowest at $15.08/MWH.

    Of special note here is Victoria which is not only supplying all its own power, but is delivering 1200MW into its three surrounding States, via four interconnectors, you know, with its hopelessly inefficient heat affected coal fired power plants that are so unreliable, and at this time, ALL ten of them were in operation, running at 101% Capaciaty Factor, with Loy Yang A Unit 2 only operating at 65% after coming back on line.

    So, at that exact time, power plants were generating 17980MW, and of that coal fired plants were generating 13850MW, so delivering 77% of all the generated power. Wind power at this same time was delivering 4% of all the generated power.

    Sooooo, with wind at a virtual standstill and not delivering at all, and the bulk of generated power coming from coal fired power, the cost for power in those States with coal fired power is the lowest it has been for a long time.

    Do not EVER allow greenies to tell you that renewables are what are the cheapest, and coal fired power is so expensive.

    This, what happens on this one day of the year tells the truth about the real cost for electrical power.

    Tony.

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    mark jones

    Went back in time to 2007. In particular, The State of the Energy Market Report in 2007 by the brand new NEM. in Chapter 1 under Electricity generation there is this paragraph-

    Plant failure or inadequate generation capacity can lead to interruptions to electricity supply. The reliability standard adopted in the NEM is that over the long term at least 99.998 per cent of customer demand must be met. To provide this reliability, NEMMCO determines the necessary spare capacity for each region that must be available (either within the region or via transmission interconnectors). These minimum reserves provide a buffer against unexpected demand spikes and generation failure. In practice generation has proved highly reliable since the NEM commenced. There have only been two instances of insufficient generation capacity to meet consumer demand. The first occurred in Vıctoria in early 2000 where a coincidence of industrial action, high demand and temporary loss of generating units resulted in load shedding. The second occurred in New South Wales on 1 December 2005, when a generator failed during a period of record summer demand. The restoration of load began within ten minutes.

    A little further on from that, there’s this-

    Planned wind projects are reported separately in the SOO because their capacity is weather dependent and cannot be relied on to generate when required.

    but the next paragraph they still say this-

    Wind projects can, however, play an important role in providing energy for future demand growth. The 2006 SOO listed about 5400 megawatts of proposed wind capacity, predominantly in South Australia, Vıctoria and New South Wales.

    ???

    In the introduction it showed that retail sale prices had not moved appreciably since 1990 but industrial prices had dropped to 75% of 1990 costs. During this time there was an over supply of generating capacity as indicated in the above paragraph…fast forward to 2018

    Retail Energy Market

    Electricity prices rose by 56 per cent in real terms over the 10 years to 2017–18.1 Outcomes varied across regions, with Queensland having the largest price rise (71 per cent) and Tasmania the lowest (39 per cent). Australian electricity prices, traditionally low by global standards, are now around 10 per cent above the European average.

    There is no similar graph showing pricing to industry customers…it must be that bad!

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    Another Ian

    “The Sound Of Settled Science”

    “After cancer-prevention surgeries, women learn BRCA gene test may have been wrong ”

    http://www.smalldeadanimals.com/index.php/2019/12/26/the-sound-of-settled-science-67/

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    WXcycles

    @ El Gordo and Joanne

    This is some of what I think is occurring with respect to the record jetstream forecasts coming out of multiple WX models at present.

    Jetstream speed forecasts continue to hit ~400 km/h within both the north and southern hemispheres into the first week of Jan, with 400 km/h just west of Washington State (headed into northern Texas and N Mexico), and about 398 km/h immediately south of Tasmania (heading towards the north Island of NZ).

    North hemisphere’s sub-tropical Jetstream is reaching up to ~70 km/h faster than normal for Winter.
    South hemisphere’s sub-tropical Jetstream is reaching up to ~160 km/h faster than normal for Summer.

    It’s my (tentative) view that the southern hemisphere has been cooling for a year or so longer than the northern hemisphere, thus the mid-level cooling is more developed and obvious within the southern jetstream’s higher speed. It’s being accentuated by both the return of Summer sun and the recent equatorial weak El-Nino event’s warming effect, which persists. Note the very strong warm SSTA east of NZ, which has just appeared during the past month, and the paths of tropical lows and cyclones in the south central Pacific which are following a classic ENSO El-Nino path.

    This earlier start to the Southern hemisphere’s cooling was detectable (in hindsight) within the persistent (moderately) cooler SSTA belt all around Antarctica for the past ~2 years (within all seasons). This continuous colder SSTA periphery was apparently caused by slowly but persistently sinking cooler air from high above Antarctica, which pulled the entire thermal profile of the troposphere closer to the icesheet and ocean, which then shed slowly sinking colder air over the surrounding ocean surface for about the past two years. And in June 2018 the coldest temps ever detected on the icesheet were detected by satellite sensor. In retrospect this occurred soon after the beginning of the process of stratospheric air slowly sinking onto the polar icesheet (sinking through the tropopause).

    The expected after-effects of BOM’s report of a major SSW (in late August early Sept), isn’t causing this cooling. However, it is typical for major SSWs to produce a ‘surge’ of slow downwelling air from the stratosphere into the lower troposphere, in the weeks after they occur. This downwelling may have helped to accentuate the cooling downflow that was already taking place (and is implied in the ridiculously fast jetstream forecasts), via sinking lower stratospheric air column falling slowly onto and into the polar upper troposphere.

    The longer-term sinking air is still reaching to the ice-sheet during this Summer, and has been keeping the high ice sheet colder than normal into mid-Summer (still seeing temps from-35 C to -40 C forecast). This falling stratospheric air has now leaked outward into the surrounding mid-levels and has kept them cooler, even as the Summer sun returns. The Sun should have warmed the mid-level already, and thus slowed and greatly shrunken the sub-tropical jet’s volume and speed and moved it more poleward.

    The difference between north and south is that lower southern surface is warming during the Summer, but the mid-levels remain colder than they should be, due to the constant input of colder air coming from high above the polar circle. As the intruding air constantly moves equatorward it eventually warms, but it’s getting further north and keeping the jet pumped-up in summer past record winter speeds, and somewhat closer to the equator than it should otherwise be in Summer (the tropical cell is of course expanding and trying to displace the jet belts further south as the tropic warm).

    But the Sun failed to do it this year, cooler air continued to enter the mid-levels from high above, so the mid-latitude upper and middle-level pressure systems both have remained colder. And the high-latitude Lows are a continuous vertical column all the way from surface to tropopause – remaining deep, strong and cold. And Summer surface warmth plus a lingering weak El-Nino effect has accentuated the mid-level pressure difference, and these two combined have amplified the Summer jetstream’s depth and speed to above the pressure difference normally seen during a southern hemisphere Winter.

    This is a major variation from normal, but it would still be amazing if it were occurring at the same level during the southern Winter. In fact, the strongest forecast jet speed I’ve seen forecast since early December occurs during the first week of 2020, near Tasmania during the maximum solar energy input. i.e. The cooling is indifferent to seasons, it’s occurring globally in all seasons. [so definitely not SSW driven, though a major SSW could accelerate the existing downwelling air sink in its aftermath.]

    In other words, the jetstream accelerations I first noticed in the northern hemisphere in late November, is continuing to intensify into January in the southern hemisphere, even as the solar wattage increases. The cooling in the mid-level is so pronounced and further north (due to air being forced off the icesheet radially into the mid-levels) that it’s overcome the warmth of a solar solstice.

    In the northern hemisphere the same thing is occurring only the pressure difference has not been accentuated as much – as yet. It’s apparently lagging behind the mid-level cooling occurring within the southern hemisphere (by maybe a year). But even so, the highest USA forecast jet wind speed so far is 48 km/h above the record level set back in Feb 2019 (358 km/h). The fact that this US record was set earlier in the same year and is significantly above the prior long-standing US record before that, indicates that the northern hemisphere’s mid-levels as far south as the polar-jet, has been slowly cooling for at least the past 9 months.

    And lately SSTA’s have disappeared from the Arctic circle surface. They were replace by cooler than normal surface conditions in Oct and especially Nov, breaking min records across the northern hemisphere. Thus, the sinking stratospheric air already seen in the southern hemisphere SSTAs around Antarctica for the past ~2-years, have finally reached the surface within the arctic circle during the northern Autumn, and the warm Arctic SSTAs disappeared within about a month of that.

    [So this is clearly a global-cooling of the mid-latitudes, at both high-latitude ends of the planet, and is thus not particular to an SSW transient driven or related effect. It's a much longer-term secular cooling mechanism operating within the lower-most stratosphere. It's also clearly not due to AGW CO2 increase 'blanket' model/theory/effect, as that model of CO2 ghg warming can only be valid if there's a corresponding sustained equatorial tropospheric hotspot. And there's no 'blanket' evident, so no CO2 ghg stratospheric cooling mechanism either. You don't get one without the other. So CO2 is not the cause of stratospheric cooling, plus the 'blanket' reasoning required the sustained coolness of the stratosphere would occur above the blanket (at the equator where the hotspot was supposed to be. Whereas this is happening 90 degrees of latitude away from the equator, without a tropospheric hotspot present. i.e. the IPCC's touted CO2 warming model (97% consensus) of the 2002-era, is clearly completely wrong. We already knew this. It's simplistic and unrepresentative of the atmosphere, at best. So CO2 ghg has no linkage to the cooling seen in the stratosphere, or any sinking of that denser stratospheric air which has now become overt and conspicuous, due to its loss of thermal support for its own (kinetically rarefied) mass. It got cooler and denser and is now sinking lower, pushing down the colder thermal profile below it closer to the ground, and pushing colder air into the mid-levels during this southern Summer.]

    The northern arctic latitudes seem to lag behind the southern hemisphere by about 1-year. It should catch-up to where the south currently is around the northern Autumn to Winter of late 2020. Which would produce another early cold winter onset which may or may not spill southwards toward the tropics during the the 2020-2021 northern winter. Indeed, the current Winter created early colder conditions but there’s colder than usual Arctic air further north (as low as -52 F in Northern Canada and Siberia) and that air still has not intruded or displaced southwards much. It may not. The polar vortex may remain strong and prevent such a cold air ‘outbreaks’ this winter. The point is it can get colder (not just early but actually colder) for a couple of years without humans feeling it much.

    This is the northern hemisphere 700 hPa extent of freezing air plus the geopotential pressure overlaid at 10,000 feet, right after the forecast for a 400km/h jet, at 30,000 ft, west of Washington State.

    https://i.ibb.co/GCfVXDK/13-Screenshot-2019-12-26-Windy-as-forecasted.jpg

    In other words, the jetstream is merely the conveyor, a distributor, it is not a cooling mechanism, nor does it make extra cloudiness. But when that conveyor is intruded with sinking air from the Stratosphere, it then has opportunity to deliver the air equatorward (but may not for several years) and can increase albedo and shading at that time. When it does finally breakout towards the tropics it could do so very brutally.

    That’s the situation developing IMO. The potential has risen for cooler years with brutal winters the moment a strong La Nina coincides with a sinking stratosphere riding on a kinked up conveyor, that’s blocked by a High. And if either or all of the PDO, AMO and IOD add their cooling trends in phase, we would see a decade or more of severe cold, punctuated by the conveyor’s random behavior and location (i.e. closer to the cooling lower humidity tropics with stronger trade-wind flow).

    In the Southern Antarctic most of the slowly-sinking (dry air) stratospheric air column is currently not getting down to the fringes of the icesheet, near to the coast any longer, due to solar input uplifting of the lower tropospheric coastal air. So a slowly sinking stratospheric air is instead being deflected radially outward horizontally, at about the 15 to 30 thousand foot level. Think of a broad inverted mushroom-shape of slowly sinking air with a stem situated over the pole, extending up into the lower stratosphere, above the pole area, and its ‘cap’ radially extending out from the pole elevation into the upper and mid levels as far north as about 40 deg south latitude.

    The result (for instance) is that cooler than average air, at say the 10,000 foot level, is getting further north this Summer further north than it ordinarily would, i.e. the freezing layer is generally a bit lower than normal and further north than normal for early mid Summer. And the air above it is much colder.

    This screen is what it looks like on the 4th of Jan 2020. The freezing air at 10,000 feet reaches as far north as the southern tropics near the WA west coast. Cold lower mid-level air should not be that far north at that altitude two weeks from Summer.

    https://i.ibb.co/0yJY0cP/11-Screenshot-2019-12-26-Windy-as-forecasted-5.png

    And this is what the same area and time looks like at 30,000 ft, just as the jet reaches 400 km/h south of Tasmania, on the 4th of Jan 2020 (Bright pink is ~-55 C while the blue is ~-30 C).

    https://i.ibb.co/BzytGB8/12-Screenshot-2019-12-26-Windy-as-forecasted-1.jpg

    This is the >400 km/h jetstream at the same time at 30,000 feet with geopotential-height pressure systems, and isobars, overlaid. There’s a black area just below Tasmania that is all above 400 km/h. [I'd show it in more detail but the extra link would put this into the moderation bin.]

    https://i.ibb.co/0ZjSLbV/10-Screenshot-2019-12-26-Windy-as-forecasted.jpg

    The black area is literally off the scale of what the program ‘Windy’ can address, in ECMWF’s model forecasts. It’s the fastest tropospheric wind on Earth. This sub tropical jet should not be reaching more than ~225 km/h in January.

    [What's possibly more amazing is that no one's even saying a thing about this yet. It's like smashing your thumb with a hammer and failing to notice. Perhaps it doesn't fit an acceptable narrative so is best that precautionary blinkers are applied.]

    The high-latitude cold polar Low cores extend from the sea surface to the base of the stratosphere. While the upper and mid-level subtropical Highs are getting an injection of upper and mid-level cooler air, which combined is steepening the temperature and pressure gradient.

    It’s stratospheric cold-air intrusion into the upper and mid-level that’s doing this, globally. Until relatively recently such interactions and weather inputs from Stratosphere to troposphere were thought to not occur. But SSW behavior showed that such stratospheric inputs to tropospheric weather are real and stratospheric air “downwelling” is a common feature after major SSWs. This is not that.

    This is a secular downwelling, induced by apparently by a decade or two of slow lower polar stratospheric cooling.

    The mechanism of such cooling is unclear. I suspect it’s caused by slightly less photo-dissociations of single elemental Oxygen atoms (presumably due to a change in the mix of wavelengths of impinging photons or other particles) which leaves slightly fewer free O atoms available to combine within reactions in the stratosphere, which drive its thermal heating processes. Eventually this leads to a more lasting downwelling, a sinking lower stratosphere process, which occurs continuously, irrespective of the seasons in either hemisphere.

    In winter the air can reach the polar surface, while in summer it is apparently forced into the middle-level, and moves more equatorward without descending further, as colder air over warm-wetter lower troposphere. Which should serve to more often intensify damaging convection-related phenomena, and increase their number. This should begin to appear in statistics over the next few years if there is a sustained slow sink of colder lower stratospheric dry air into the mid-latitude troposphere. SSW’s can alter or ‘punctuate’ such a slow-sink process but otherwise will make little difference to its over all tendency to persistently cool the polar regions of the planet.

    Sinking stratospheric air slowly drops cold air on to the high altitude polar icesheet but the Sun in late November of this year lifted air nearest to the coastline upwards. Thus blocking the sinking air, nearer to the Antarctic continental margins, and forcing most of it to spread radially equatorward from Antarctic towards the latitude of the sub-tropical jetstream. As it did so it intruded first Low pressure systems closer to the continent in the mid-latitudes and amplified the pressure differences between the polar Lows and mid-Latitude Highs.

    So instead of the jetstream going into its usual relatively atrophied ‘quiescent’ Summer pattern it instead did the opposite in the late Spring and got stronger, deeper and faster. Faster than it had been during the prior Winter, simply because in Winter it could fall all the way to the ice, but in Summer the quickly (relatively) ‘warming’ periphery and rising air means the sinking air can only go into the upper and mid levels – both are very dry as the air moves towards the sub-tropical jet belt.

    As far as I’m aware nothing like this has been seen prior. Perhaps weaker versions of it. The polar stratosphere has apparently within the past couple of years switched from a growing propensity to sink sometimes to an actual slow downdraft that’s present all of the time, regardless of season (but it changes behaviors with the seasons). I suspect the stratosphere was slowly sinking from the late-1950s through to the late-1970s. Then warmed slowly and became more thermally supportive from 1980 to about 2000, when it began to slowly cool again during the ‘Hiatus’. And since about 2016 it’s been increasingly tending towards sinking, and has now switched to actual slow stratospheric sinking since about the beginning of 2019.

    I’m fairly sure no one’s modeled this as a recognized physical mechanism. So what would it do? What’s its potential for acting as a further global-cooling ‘nudge’? An added increase in pole to equator gradients, if each or any of the variable ocean cycles switches toward cooling. For instance what would a strong La-Nina plus a slowly sinking polar stratosphere look like? Have we already seen that, within living memory? Say during the severe storms, floods and major cyclones of the 1973/1975 period? There was a stunning 54 significant cyclones from 1973 until May 1976 in Australia. Anyone living in the north during that period knew how frequent the cyclone warnings became. Plus a cyclone induced major flood in Brisbane, many tornadoes within thunderstorms, large hail, epic flooding in NQ. Weather during that period was brutal. The damage level was high and time-compressed in a way we’ve not seen occur since. It was one big hit after another, The almost total destruction of Darwin being the biggest, towards the end. It was during this period that serious efforts and funding were put into cyclone structural testing, which produced much stronger building codes thereafter.

    But immediately after that La-Nina commenced we experienced the coldest winters in Cairns that I’d experienced in my lifetime in all of northern Australia (by far!). People can’t comprehend how cold it became in Cairns from the Winter of ~1973 to the winter of about 1977. 1974 was a shockingly cold and 1976 was possibly worse. When I looked at the official min and max temps of that era, I have no doubt that the extremes were completely edited out of the record. I don’t know who did that but I lived through it, and it was a whole lot colder than the current BOM temp record shows. BOM’s record touts it as a cool-ish ‘blip’, of a couple of degree C cooler within the mid-1970s. That official ‘record’ is an insult. This was a sudden and dramatically colder period, within the far northern tropics. It lasted for about 4 to 5 years. It made you dread putting you cold toes onto the Lino floor covering in the morning. Placing you bottom on the frigid toilet seat was an ordeal – we developed hovering methods to avoid direct contact. This was new. It had not occurred before (nor since, the Winter of 1984 was cold too though). The min temp typically dropped to 4 to 5 degrees C each night, for weeks at a time. The usual temp was around 13 to 14 degrees C.

    4 to 5 C doesn’t sound too cold, but no one was used to it, and no one owned bedding suitable for it in May 1974. Plus no one knew about ‘layering’ clothing, or a bed cover, to remain warmer. And no one had suitable clothing to deal with such cold in the morning. We had never seen a heater in North QLD prior to the Winter of 1974. No one ever used a heater. NO one owned one unless they were southerners. But in 1974 we religiously ate our Uncle Toby’s oats porridge as close as we could possibly get to the blazing double bar heater. Except our backs were still freezing cold. Us kids were constantly shivering, our teeth would chatter from soon after sundown to mid-morning. It got cold as soon as the sun went down. That doesn’t normally occur in the tropics. It was about 10 degrees cooler than the winters of now. If you go to a Cairns household today and ask, “Do you have a heater?” If they’re younger than 45 they’ll look at you strangely and say we don’t have one. If they do have one its some ancient heater from the 1970s which Grandma gave them (because grandma new). And they also won’t own a heavy winter parka today. That was also the situation in the winter of 1973. But by the Winter of 1975 every house in Cairns without exception had an electric heater. Every school child’s parents had bought them a thick padded parka to wear to school. They were even worn in the classroom. We didn’t take them off until around 11 AM, when we finally warmed up enough.

    And of course younger people don’t believe this really occurred.

    When I look at official temp records of that era, it simply didn’t happen. There’s no record of it, it’s gone. Apparently we all just imagined it. Some dismal wretched knob in Melbourne or Sydney at BOM decided it couldn’t possibly be true, so they just edited it away in the records, and the detail of it is all gone. This is why we don’t learn. We can’t join the dots when the Ministry-of-Fake-Truth at BOM decide they know better than the lived reality of people that experienced it. So they benevolently decided to make sure that we can’t see the raw facts of what really occurred, and thus will never learn nor understand what really can occur, until it occurs again.

    But then, it will be declared, “Unprecedented!” – an infinity of neva-evahs.

    Except for oldies who lived through it, and know it’s not new. BOM systematically ensured it would not be possible for them to tell the truth, if they wanted to, about Australia’s natural temperature variability range. Consequently, even the official tropical minimum temps are worthless and misleading junk. If you’re older than about 45 and experienced it you’d know BOM’s ‘data’ is schist. If younger than 45 and a Cairns local, you would have no way of learning about it, except from old poops talking boring unreliable anecdotal old-stuff. The public record of the stunning cold variability was discarded. It was the most important information in the record of that period, but the idiots at the Ministry-of-Fake-Truth, eliminated it, because it offended their sense of symmetry, or proportion, or something. They certainly detested ‘messy’ records, full of unexpected truth about the real natural temperature variability.

    Nevertheless, it was precisely this sort of experience in the 1970s which lead to the widespread speculation that we were on the verge of a new global ice-age, because it was so BLEEDING COLD. It was credible with the public at the time because we were experiencing shocking multiple year drops in the min temps and seeing increases in desert areas, famines, and every sort of dangerous weather event. And what we’re going through, today, in 2019, has almost none of that really bad stuff happening.

    In the cooler 1970s there were of course out of control bush-fires. Being in a cooler-phase made no difference, if anything the winters and the air were drier, which made the bush easier to burn. Something similar occurred in the period 1890s to around 1905, but it was apparently even more severe. The weather was horrendous, and not just “The Federation Drought”, the cyclones of that era remain unmatched to this day for the number of lives lost and towns destroyed. Decades of very bad weather can appear and disappear quickly. It has happened before. It has nothing to do with CO2, it is and always will be the natural weather variability range of Australia.

    If the colder polar stratosphere is beginning to slowly sink, the possibility of weather abruptly turning to the Dark-Side again, is making a reappearance.

    Only this time we’ll see the process in detail. Observations show the stratosphere has been very slowly cooling since the late 1970s (up to -2.5 deg C per decade). The NET concentration of Ozone is also slightly less each year since the 1970s. If it’s sinking it may take years of higher atomic O dissociations to reverse this. But it only needs to warm the stratosphere enough to thermally rarefy it enough to reduce its tendency to sink. A handful of years of increased O photon-dissociation may be enough to halt that (if that is the cause of cooling). But logically the longer it keeps cooling the longer it would take to add the thermal kinetic energy to rarefy it and make it self-buoyant again.

    Slightly less production of O atoms due to variable photon wavelength producing slightly fewer O photo-dissociations could produce a slow stratospheric cooling, over many years. Thus cumulatively producing slightly NET less ozone each year. This slowly cooling the stratosphere, makes it gradually denser and tends towards negative buoyancy. It becomes more likely to sink more often, until it sinks through the polar tropopause boundary. I do not know if that is a solar mediated stratospheric cooling/warming mechanism, but this does seem to be the simplest path to a slow lowering of the NET ozone concentration, and cooling-off the stratosphere to the point where it will tend to enter a sinking phase.

    A positive buoyancy phase (polar lower-stratospheric slow-warming) from 1980 to 2000, then a reducing level of the polar stratosphere’s buoyancy from 2000 to 2017, as the lowest part of the polar stratosphere (65 k ft to 100 k ft say) cooled sufficiently and became denser, as it lost thermal self-support, whereupon it gradually switched from barely perceptible negative-buoyancy (mid-2017 to mid-2019) and now a sinking tendency has become established especially in the southern hemisphere. It’s become overtly detectable within accurate global WX models like GFS, and especially ECMWF, due to their run starting points using data inputs which are capturing the fine details of that change, and are therefore predicting higher jet speeds due to such upper and mid-level mid-latitude conditions just south of the sub-tropical jets.

    There’s no other way I see that we could get forecasts for 400 km/h south of Tasmania, at 30,000 ft, in January. Let alone seeing same wind speeds in the northern hemisphere, at the very same time. The sinking stratospheric cold-air injection is effectively indifferent to whatever season is occurring below in the troposphere, in whatever hemisphere, or whatever orientation with respect to the Sun’s light. Thus we can expect cooler to colder air flow in every season whenever the jetstream kinks and becomes meridional, with sub-tropical blocking-highs directing a drier cooler air stream more persistently towards the tropics.

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      This is awfully long. Can you summarize it in a few sentences? An abstract?

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        WXcycles

        I apologize for the length and readability for anyone who’s not been following this topic David. I know El Gordo and Joanne have been following it thus far, so I wrote it more in their direction. I’m describing something I’ve found which is still changing and expanding its expression. I’m not trying to summarize it, I’m trying to describe features of it, and to trying to identify how and why it’s taking place, plus why it’s still becoming stronger within both hemispheres.

        Perhaps you can treat the final two paragraphs as a sort of Summary.

        I’ll attempt to explain it in smaller pieces in a few months if it becomes a persistent global feature from here. At the moment I’m highlighting that the jetstream speed and volume has suddenly and strongly amplified within both hemisphere’s, particularly so others will become aware it’s occurring and start looking into observations to truth it, and to look at related aspects and their implications. Hopefully so a clearer understanding of the how and why can be developed. It’s my early (tentative) view that this is being caused by the polar stratosphere beginning to slowly sink on to the polar regions, and has begun to continually inject colder air into the mid-levels in the process, which is amplifying the jetstream flow speed and is also expanding its volume.

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          Peter C

          Thanks WX,

          Perhaps you could include a few references to observations, so that we can have some confidence that the

          jetstream speed and volume has suddenly and strongly amplified within both hemisphere’s

          really has done that.

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            WXcycles

            Just four links in a puts them into moderation Peter. I have one in there now for that reason alone. I provided some links to this back at the end of November and early Dec when I first started discussing it.

            Look at the top line of this graph of weather balloon jetstream speed data:

            https://www.washingtonpost.com/resizer/Ec17_gqNKB5aOkXc4ZK3CXdaaJ4=/1484×0/arc-anglerfish-washpost-prod-washpost.s3.amazonaws.com/public/VQN2EAOBNVDIBGIA5N4JNDFANM.png

            Weather balloon jetstream speed data source: US National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center

            -

            Max speed in mid-Winter is ~190 kt 351 km/h.
            Currently 409 km/h in the early northern Winter.

            Max speed in mid-Summer ~115 kt 213 km/h.
            Currently 400 km/h in the early southern Summer.

            From Feb 2019 the fastest speeds began to rise higher at the end of the previous US Winter. The max jetstream speed observed by aircraft up to that point was 358 km/h, but the max jetstream observed by balloon suddenly jumped up to 200.5 knots or 371 km/hr, also during Feb 2019.

            That period 10 months ago marks the beginning of the rise in jetstream speeds, which continues to increase now within the forecasts for both hemispheres. I first noticed the rise in November in the northern hemisphere, when the forecasts within models started to forecast numbers shooting up to 404 km/h at 30,000 ft.

            Both the northern hemisphere’s core altitude drop down to FL300 and the forecast speed increase to 46 km/h above the Feb 2019 record, were way outside the usual range in Winter. It was immediately clear something pretty big had changed during 2019.

            But it was not until about 3 weeks after this that I decided to check the Southern hemisphere’s fastest sub-tropical jet speeds, within the usual range of 24 k feet to 45 k feet, against the normal early-Summer max speed range (~118 kt, ~219 km/h @ 34 k ft), and was absolutely stunned to see that the wind speed increase was actually about double what was occurring in the northern hemisphere!

            In stead of slowing down to no more than about 220 km/h, it had instead accelerated close to about 375 km/h. And as of now the Southern jetstream has increased up to 400 km/h.

            Which is currently ~177 km/h higher than the maximum speed that should be seen in the southern hemisphere, as of the last week of December. It’s thus approaching double what should be present (max ~218 km/h jets). And you only have to look at the jetstream forecasts at each level and you can plainly see the jets are about double the width and depth that normally occurs during Summer.

            The comment currently in moderation has three images in it of the same location (south of Tasmania), but at different altitudes (30k, 34k, and 39k), which clearly depict the deepening and expansion of the strongest parts of the flow in the southern Summer.

            But its not just the core area that got faster, wider and deeper, the extended periphery of the strongest jets did as well. For instance, look at the two images give below, and note that both look equally fast (409 km/h), but the image at 34,000 is a lot more dark red in its periphery, because even the periphery at 34,000 ft has greatly accelerated. Thus the volume of the flow has much more than doubled due to the speed increase, the width increase, and the depth increase, well above what should be present during Summer, or even during Winter.

            409 km/h forecast on 4th Jan 2019 30,000 ft US NE Coast
            https://i.ibb.co/mz19zSR/409-kmh-4th-Jan-2019-30-000-ft-USA-East-Coast-Screenshot-2019-12-27-Windy-as-forecasted.png

            409 km/h forecast on 4th Jan 2019 34,000 ft US NE Coast
            https://i.ibb.co/2ZYzqxk/409-kmh-4th-Jan-2019-34-000-ft-USA-East-Coast-Screenshot-2019-12-27-Windy-as-forecasted-1.png

            ^This one immediately above is much faster overall, and will thus flow a much greater volume overall, as well.

            This sort of double-peak in the speed at two levels separated by 4,000 ft I’ve not seen before, every time I’ve looked as jetstream there’s always a dominant level that’s significantly faster, but not as of this week. The fastest jets forecast are continuing to get stronger, deeper and wider, within both hemispheres.

            And the summer hemisphere mid-level looks more like the first two weeks of Spring, rather than an early Summer pattern. But below it, within the lower troposphere, below about 10 k ft, the conditions more-or-less look like a regular Summer. A bit more snow and coolness in early summer maybe, but no one’s complaining about that yet.

            If you or others can identify a better explanation for the global speed increase, I am listening.

            And thank you Peter, for those prompts.

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        WXcycles

        David, here’s my initial comment on the topic in late November, and those which followed:

        November 28, 2019 at 3:55 pm
        http://joannenova.com.au/2019/11/midweek-unthreaded-105/#comment-2230752

        December 2, 2019 at 9:13 pm
        http://joannenova.com.au/2019/12/abc-discovers-data-on-facebook-showing-wet-rainforest-has-not-burned-once-ever-or-at-all-in-tens-of-millions-of-years/#comment-2234995

        Here’s the comment I made when I found this effect was also well-developed with the southern hemisphere’s Summer.

        December 4, 2019 at 3:33 pm
        http://joannenova.com.au/2019/12/midweek-unthreaded-106/#comment-2235743

        December 12, 2019 at 10:00 pm
        http://joannenova.com.au/2019/12/midweek-unthreaded-107/#comment-2239504

        I think that’s all of the comments that I’ve made on the jetstream acceleration topic during the past 5 weeks, plus what’s in this thread.

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      Annie

      WX Cycles, I’ll read this more thoroughly shortly but a quick flick through it is very interesting. Some of the Northern Hemisphere occurences in the 1970s stick in my memory too.

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      WXcycles

      These two screens are the fastest forecast jet speed I’ve seen. It’s also got the largest area so far seen above 400 km/h (Black area). It’s also the widest and deepest in altitude high-speed jet so far. It’s also the first time I’ve seen the jet hit its peak speed at two separate altitudes – they’re separated by 4,000 feet! I’ve never seen a jet like this one, it’s very wide but also extraordinarily deep with much more energy within it than any I’ve seen so far. The strongest widest jets are normally east of Japan (but less deep), but this one is NE of New York.

      409 km/h forecast on 4th Jan 2019 30,000 ft US NE Coast
      https://i.ibb.co/mz19zSR/409-kmh-4th-Jan-2019-30-000-ft-USA-East-Coast-Screenshot-2019-12-27-Windy-as-forecasted.png

      409 km/h forecast on 4th Jan 2019 34,000 ft US NE Coast
      https://i.ibb.co/2ZYzqxk/409-kmh-4th-Jan-2019-34-000-ft-USA-East-Coast-Screenshot-2019-12-27-Windy-as-forecasted-1.png

      They’re both 51 km/h faster than the Jan 2019 record jet speed. So the northern hemisphere’s sub-tropical jet is still strengthening as it is within the south hemisphere sub-tropical jets.

      The high-speed jet right across the entire northern Pacific basin, reaching to the USA has becoming a more established feature:
      https://i.ibb.co/PmHw7jn/Japan-to-USA-record-jet-Screenshot-2019-12-26-Windy-as-forecasted-4.png

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      WXcycles

      As seen in these three images below, this sort of increase in both the strength and depth of the forecast is taking place within the Southern Hemisphere as well.

      30,000 ft South of Tasmania
      https://i.ibb.co/wzpVm97/30-K-ft-Screenshot-2019-12-26-Windy-as-forecasted-9.png

      34,000 ft South of Tasmania
      https://i.ibb.co/yXsmrHv/34-k-ft-Screenshot-2019-12-26-Windy-as-forecasted-7.png

      39,000 ft South of Tasmania
      https://i.ibb.co/T8qNpFx/39-k-ft-Screenshot-2019-12-26-Windy-as-forecasted-8.png

      Not only are the jets getting faster the fastest ones are taking up a lot more volume of the mid-latitude (and have a lot more energy in them).

      400 km/h West of Washington State at 30,000 ft. It’s happening over both US coasts simultaneously.
      https://i.ibb.co/PrK9YSR/400-kmh-Washington-State-30-000-ft-Screenshot-2019-12-26-Windy-as-forecasted-1.png

      -

      The other new change I’ve noticed is that the jets no longer stick to one level, the core’s highest speed stream has begun to move up and down between 30,000 ft and 39,000.

      In other words, the highest core speed is on average found at 34,000 ft, but they have begun to oscillate vertically +/- ~5,000 ft either side of 34 k ft.

      This seems to be part of the process toward a general increase in the depth in the sub-topical jets within both hemispheres.

      I have not been closely monitoring changes to the polar-jets since November, I’ve not had time to do that, but I expect they also have been strongly altered, like the sub-tropical jets have been.

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      WXcycles

      I’ve included these extra two lower resolution GFS model screens, in order to illustrate that both of these major global forecast models are showing the same jetstream acceleration features. They are both showing the same sorts of changes to the jetstream speed and flow pattern. They’re both dynamically responding to the observational data being input to each model run which is showing that the mid-latitude mid-level conditions observations have fundamentally changed within both hemispheres, irrespective of the season.

      GFS Model – 363 km/h NE Pacific 34,000 ft
      https://i.ibb.co/T0SqdHD/GFS-Model-1-Screenshot-2019-12-27-Windy-as-forecasted-1.png

      GFS Model – 367 km/h E Japan 30,000 ft
      https://i.ibb.co/c3FG08R/GFS-Model-2-Screenshot-2019-12-27-Windy-as-forecasted.png

      Same things happening.

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      WXcycles

      Given a slowly sinking stratosphere should be both cold and bone-dry I’ve created the follow 6 images to illustrate this low humidity air effect as it moves north into the mid-levels, greatly amplifying the speed of the Summer sub-tropical jetstream speed.

      So these first three images are from the South Pole to the mid-latitude south of Australia, showing the very low humidity present.

      45,000 ft Humidity (Scarlet = 0%, Green = 50%, Blue = 100%)
      https://i.ibb.co/nQvxWyQ/1-45000-ft-Humidity-Screenshot-2019-12-28-Windy-as-forecasted-3.png

      39,000 ft Humidity (Scarlet = 0%, Green = 50%, Blue = 100%)
      https://i.ibb.co/ysMFVNt/2-39000-ft-Humidity-Screenshot-2019-12-28-Windy-as-forecasted-4.png

      34,000 ft Humidity (Scarlet = 0%, Green = 50%, Blue = 100%)
      https://i.ibb.co/JRH4qv0/3-34000-ft-Humidity-Screenshot-2019-12-28-Windy-as-forecasted-5.png

      As you see, that’s a pretty solid block of very cold dry air. But at which point this sinking cold-dry air is being displaced equatorward by warmer and wetter air rising below it, up to about 30,000 feet. Thus the air is then being injected northeastward into the mid-latitude mid-levels.

      The cold and drier air upper air is also moving towards the tropics in the upper-levels, at the same time. In other words it will be altering the structure and flows of the Polar and Mid-Latitude Hadley Cell return flows at this time, adding extra coolness and dryness to them.

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        WXcycles

        The following 3 images show the result as this air is currently moving outwords into the mid-level over the southern Tasman Sea.

        34,000 ft Humidity (Scarlet = 0%, Green = 50%, Blue = 100%)
        https://i.ibb.co/541FhVR/4-34000-ft-Humidity-Screenshot-2019-12-28-Windy-as-forecasted-2.png

        34,000 ft Temperature (Bright Pink = -60 C Darker Purple – 35 C)
        https://i.ibb.co/7tTHCF8/5-34000-ft-Temperature-Screenshot-2019-12-28-Windy-as-forecasted-1.png

        34,000 ft Jetstream speed – The maximum speed here is 350 km/h – which is 235 km/h faster than it should be approaching mid-Jan in Summer.
        https://i.ibb.co/yF2GvQK/6-34000-ft-Jetstream-Screenshot-2019-12-28-Windy-as-forecasted.png

        The highest jet speed occurs right at the boundary within the mid-levels where the coldest and driest intruded upper polar air has pushed towards the equator until it has finally reached the subtropical jet flow and met warmer wetter mid-level air north of the jet. The cold dry air intruded the polar region lows surrounding Antarctica on the way northward, strengthening all such Lows with respect to the sub-tropical Highs (such per the High over New South Wales within these three images) which has then strongly amplified the jet speed and also greatly expanded their Summer flow-volume in the process.

        The only reason the Jet accelerations and their expansion is taking place is because this colder-drier mid-level polar derived air has suddenly started to spill towards the tropics. Which has served to finally make it overtly noticeable as a new feature in both hemispheres.

        That colder-drier mid-level air was not there in southern Summers during multiple decades prior to the 2019-2020 Summer.

        the reason it is indifferent to Summer is simply because this cold-dry air did not come from the Troposphere, it was added to it, from above the pole’s sinking lower stratosphere. And it has just begun to alter the Troposphere as the lower stratosphere over the polar regions sank more persistently as 2019 progressed towards Jan 2020.

        The mid-latitude middle and upper level atmosphere has apparently begun a cooling phase and the jetstream will periodically re-distribute this cooler air generally toward the tropics in ensuing years, regardless of pop-hysteria ghg memes, and whether the prevailing “Weather-is-Climate™” myth, is ready for it, or not.

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          WXcycles

          The sinking stratospheric air has also begun to do the same thing over the northern Arctic region, and colder drier air is intruding the mid-levels there, as well, except it’s not as developed. IMO, this is probably due to mountain ranges throwing warmer moister air into the upper level more often, via orographic downstream wave effects.

          Here’s another 3 images which show the state of the coldest region of the northern hemisphere’s humidity.

          45,000 ft Humidity (Scarlet = 0%, Green = 50%, Blue = 100%)
          https://i.ibb.co/SXj9BVT/7-45000-ft-Humidity-Screenshot-2019-12-28-Windy-as-forecasted.png

          39,000 ft Humidity (Scarlet = 0%, Green = 50%, Blue = 100%)
          https://i.ibb.co/ZX6rzGK/8-39000-ft-Humidity-Screenshot-2019-12-28-Windy-as-forecasted-1.png

          34,000 ft Humidity (Scarlet = 0%, Green = 50%, Blue = 100%)
          https://i.ibb.co/dMbZ7QB/9-34000-ft-Humidity-Screenshot-2019-12-28-Windy-as-forecasted.jpg

          As you can see in the 45K ft image, the sinking colder drier air is present, but it’s weaker than the south-hem, and is being intruded and diluted by warmer-wetter waves of air due to vertical waves forming behind mountains, like the N-S oriented Ural mountain range, thus adding humidity and warmth to the upper level.

          As you go lower the wave mixing dilution gets even stronger compared the the southern hemisphere.

          Thus the northern hemisphere’s development of persistently sinking polar lower-stratospheric air is lagging the south hemisphere, in its present development level. It’s sinking is being continually disturbed by upwards moving wetter and warmer atmospheric waves, but nevertheless it has begun and is present. There’s currently enough sinking colder-drier air entering into the northern mid-level to send the subtropical jet to record levels, either side of North America, at around the same time as these humidity screens were captured. The northern hemisphere’s polar stratospheric air sinking will most likely become more established during the coming year, as it has in the southern hemisphere, until and unless what ‘normally’ (secularly) warms the stratosphere, begins to NET-warm it once again, thus can stop it sinking above both of the poles.

          In the meantime we’ll increasingly see cooler mid-level air flows toward the tropics, within all seasons, and during winter the sinking air can actually make it closer to the ground and should make for extraordinarily cold stormy periods, until the lower polar stratosphere air stops sinking, as it apparently did to terminate the 1960s to 1970s colder period.

          If readers know of a simpler explanation for the jetstream’s strong amplification currently occurring within both hemispheres, I’d sure like to hear it.

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      WXcycles

      BTW, someone tried to hack my i.ibb.co image-hosting service acct today (where these images were uploaded to), and they obtained my email address from it then tried to insert a virus and to phish via sending a contact name and email address that I’ve not spoken to for most of a decade. Of course my security software detected the i.ibb.co account’s login being hijacked (it still is), and also intercepted the resulting phishing/virus insertion attempt via email shortly after.

      Someone didn’t like this pointing out that the current forecast jetstream speed increase is the result of a vigorous polar mid and upper level atmospheric cooling mechanism.

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        Wayne Job

        WX I am wondering if the onset of the LIA had the same wandering jet streams. It seems that the sun was in a funk at that time also.

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    A year of ineffective climate madness looms (my latest)

    By David Wojick

    https://www.cfact.org/2019/12/26/a-year-of-ineffective-climate-madness-looms/

    The year 2019 saw the rapid rise of climate hysteria, but as the saying goes: “You ain’t seen nothin yet.” Now that the hysteria is firmly established and well organized, it is sure to get bigger and louder. But I see very little coming from it except the noise, as long as skeptics keep up the good fight.

    This is especially true in the U.S. Presidential race, which is climate policy-wise by far the biggest thing going on in the world. Many of the Democrat candidates are going to try to ride the hysterical wave to victory. Their winning is not likely.

    My take is the further left you go the fewer votes you get, and these folks are going far left on climate. In my view the only viable candidate in the pack is Biden and he may not be crazy enough to get the nod. Nor can he beat Trump, so things are looking good on that front.

    Another big unknown is what the hysterical demonstrators are going to do. Bigger marches? More disruption? (The police now have glue remover.) Or maybe something we have not seen before, hopefully not more violent. I am sure the advocacy insider email traffic is buzzing over this. (Maybe some new wacky signs. “I don’t want to die!” seems to be catching on.)

    For that matter, will the hysterics endorse specific candidates for the Democrat nomination? Or perhaps get active in specific Congressional races? They might even form their own party (but Greta Thunberg cannot run, more’s the pity). Political action seems like the logical next step for the extremists, which could further destabilize the green movement, given that most of the political action groups are moderates.

    There are lots of other climate crunch points in progress as well. In a recent meeting the EU failed to come up with a more ambitious emission reduction goal for 2030, despite its hysterical leadership calling for one.

    The next meeting on this proposal will be in June. No doubt we will see lots of “Action Now!” marches and demonstrations then, but ambition may well be lacking at the EU national member level, which is all that counts. Several countries are already missing their 2020 target and there are anti-action demonstrations too boot, from yellow vests to farmers and coal miners. The political leaders are running a bit scared of this stuff.

    The UN will have several semi-summits, leading up to the grand COP 26 in Glasgow, beginning in November. Given what happened in Madrid’s COP 25 we are likely to witness the progressive collapse of the entire UN climate action process.

    The UN’s Paris Accord process is entirely too slow and compromising for the Action Now! hysterics to tolerate. This will be especially certain if the Action Now! hysteria builds during 2020, which is very likely. That the mythical $100 billion a year promised to the developing countries does not show up in Glasgow will compound the collapse.

    Then too there is a lot going on at national levels around the world. Especially promising is the rapid rise of new populist parties that oppose the drastic actions demanded by the Action Now! radicals. Left wing hysteria typically generates a conservative reaction. How could it not? Angry mobs are dangerous.

    Mind you I expect to see a lot of meaninglessly symbolic green action in response to the hysterical noise-making. This includes toothless declarations of “climate emergency” and pointless promises of zero emissions by far off 2050. Politicians promising the impossible, to be delivered in the far distant future, do no harm. Hence their popularity.

    My definition of winning the great climate change debate is that no serious harm is done by the alarmists. While I expect an escalating crescendo of hysterical shrieking during the course of 2020, the reason will be that my side is winning and the loud side is losing.

    As things stand now, skeptics have a chance to win big in 2020, but we must keep the pressure on. Hold your nose, plug your ears, and hit them hard. You ain’t seen nothin yet.

    Please share this strategic analysis.

    David

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      glen Michel

      In reality there is little governments can do in response to climate change except cede power to a centralised authority or body. National bodies will play lip service to a generally alarmed populace who are urged to frenzy by radicals and the MSM. Appeals to reduce emissions by destroying our reliable energy sources will not succeed. What is needed is a breakthrough that gains traction in some part of the media,but I can see that as being difficult. WE can do our bit in presenting a rational riposte to the masses in the hope that they will regain their senses.

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        The last election suggests that the populace is not all that generally alarmed, just some of it. I see a slowly turning tide, ironically driven in part by the Action Now! hysteria. Greta may be the breakthrough we have been looking for. What a hoot that would be.

        The U.S. Congress just zeroed wind and solar subsidies. A big step in the right direction, and by Democrats!

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    Another Ian

    “A Decided Lack Of Equilibrium”

    https://wattsupwiththat.com/2019/12/26/a-decided-lack-of-equilibrium/

    Willis E on ECS etc

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      PeterS

      Thanks, an excellent review of the falsification of data and fibs being told to the public about climate change history. It ought to be a hot topic of discussion by the wide community but of course it won’t be thanks to bias and ignorance of the MSM, social media, education systems, state and federal governments and opposition political parties. What hope is there of getting the public to know and understand the truth when we are faced with an uphill battle by all those groups? We might as well consider it’s a hopeless situation and we have almost reached an fully Orwellian society. At least we still have sites like Jo’s to shine a small light to give us some hope albeit very little. The way I see it though is the CAGW scam and hoax won’t be fully exposed until a Royal Commission is conducted, or a class action is conducted and the authorities responsible (governments, education systems, etc.) are brought to account in a court of law, or preferably both.

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      WXcycles

      I can’t tell what you’ve posted Bill, it wants me to “register to login” to some dodgy site called “facebook”.

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    Bill In Oz

    The BBC news online has hidden politics in the UK Since the election.
    But it is still promoting it’s REMOANER agenda.
    The BBC needs sacking
    Just like the ABC.
    They are both driven by ideology
    Not service to locals !

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      PeterS

      The sooner the respective government duly elected by the people takes action the better, here, UK and US. Otherwise the propaganda will continue to snowball and eventually destroy the West if left alone. We might have to rely on the public’s common sense to reject the trend. Time will tell if that works out. So far there are some promising signs as displayed by the recent elections here and in the UK. Still the left leaning CAGW leaders and promoters are not giving up and are increasing their efforts to destroy Western democracy and replace it with some form of dictatorial regime to control the people. We are at war but unfortunately much of the public is still asleep. One day they will wake up but it remains to be seen under what circumstances this will happen. It might be under such circumstances they will regret for remaining asleep for too long. I’m hoping the public wake up sooner than that and finally stop voting for any party that promotes the CAGW agenda no matter how little and promotes those that openly proclaim it’s a scam. At the moment that rules out the two major parties but the LNP might change if they are smart enough to sense a change in public sentiment if it eventuates, which I think it will. We need a game changer.

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        Peter C

        According to Pointman, the Left have already lost!

        But that is not the end.

        Going forward, you might as well be warned, it’s going to get a lot uglier as they go down.
        Once upon a time there was a guy called Bill Shankly. What crappy statistics WordPress gives me, assures me that 75% of the readership will have no idea of him. However, and overcoming my natural antipathy to Liverpool FC, he said something germane to the climate wars. “Some people believe football is a matter of life and death, I am very disappointed with that attitude. I can assure you it is much, much more important than that.”

        http://urlm.co.uk/www.thepointman.wordpress.com

        Things could get bad or worse as we try to dismantle the barricades already in place.

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          PeterS

          For now the left are at war and fighting harder and dumber. That will lead to an escalation of violence before it’s over.

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        Peter C

        According to Pointman, the Left have already lost!

        But that is not the end.

        Going forward, you might as well be warned, it’s going to get a lot uglier as they go down.
        Once upon a time there was a guy called Bill Shankly. What crappy statistics WordPress gives me, assures me that 75% of the readership will have no idea of him. However, and overcoming my natural antipathy to Liverpool FC, he said something germane to the climate wars. “Some people believe football is a matter of life and death, I am very disappointed with that attitude. I can assure you it is much, much more important than that.”

        http://urlm.co.uk/www.thepointman.wordpress.com

        Things could get bad or worse as we try to dismantle the barricades already in place.

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    Slithers

    Some Essential reading especially for Peter Fitz!

    https://principia-scientific.org/new-book-sky-dragon-slayers-victory-lap/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+psintl+%28Principia+Scientific+Intl+-+Latest+News%29

    I wonder when the CAGW followers will realize that the light they see at the end of the tunnel is a train coming towards them at 200KPH

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    Vishnu

    Coral in the Gulf of Aqaba is thriving despite rising sea temperatures and scientists want to know why

    Enjoy! https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-12-28/the-coral-that-loves-climate-change/11817896

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    Vishnu

    Oh pullease … Tim Ball hahahaha.
    More dragon-slayer bumph – come on guys – standards please. It’s just so awful.

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    Brett

    Excellent observation via: https://twitter.com/AndyOz2

    #Adelaide #heatwave tampering
    29 Dec 1931 max Temp was 45.9°C has been adjusted down to 43.9°C.
    There is no mistake here, this is fraud.
    The need to make the past appear cooler is important to the #climate liars at the UN. Trillions in graft are at stake.
    https://twitter.com/AndyOz2/status/1210570091290456064

    link to trove:
    https://trove.nla.gov.au/newspaper/article/29883386/2670269

    link to BOM:
    http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/ncc/cdio/weatherData/av?p_nccObsCode=40&p_display_type=dataFile&p_startYear=&p_c=&p_stn_num=023000

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    Slithers

    There are none as deaf as those who don’t want to hear.
    There are none as blind as those who don’t want to see.
    There are non as loud as those who don’t know when to keep their mouth shut.

    Thanks for the endorsement Vishnu.

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    Slithers

    There are a few very small islands off the coast of Ullapool Scotland where there are corals. The Atlantic Ocean there although warmed by the gulf stream, you need a good wet suit to go swimming there. Very tidal bay, very shallow water yet there are corals!
    I bet they like where they are.

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    Graeme Bird

    I’m wondering why the idea of the solar wind as a secondary energy source isn’t taking off that well. Control of science seems pretty tight. Having a secondary energy source actually makes CO2 warming (if we could find more than the slightest scintilla) a bit more plausible. Really we should have been complaining about a lot of science foolishness a long time ago. Well before these climate posers started pushing their dysfunction in our face. Like the idea that clouds produce electricity internally via friction. Very dopey idea. The energy from luke warm water drives cyclones. Or the idea that stars form via hydrogen (or indeed plasma) self-compression. Hydrogen self-compression and self-segregation. You cannot get more dimwitted than that. That gravity is space bending. That the light from comets, comes from the suns reflection off water vapour.

    Really we shouldn’t have let things get so horribly out of whack. We were asking for trouble.

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      Kalm Keith

      A lot of “stuff” in there Graeme.

      Are you trying to say something or are you saying something so confused that nobody will complain?

      And then the next post will say something silly?

      ?

      KK

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        Graeme Bird

        What I’m saying is that the people who contrived the CO2-warming fraud didn’t go in green. It didn’t happen in a vacuum. And if it didn’t happen by conspiracy, still the dysfunction that was already out there ought to have been clear to anyone working in the field. If you have walked through the mist or climbed up a mountain bearing low-lying clouds you will see that there is no friction between water particles in clouds. Its not even a plausible theory. Energy does not go from a diffuse energy-flux-density to a focused one. That defies any number of known laws. Hydrogen doesn’t compress on its own. For gravity to hold it in to any extent at all, it must by very powerful gravity with heavy materials. Nor would the light gasses choose to go to one wall of the dance floor while all the heavies congregated on the other. If gravity is space bending how is it that you are now feeling the force on your butt, while you read my post? Though there is no space between your butt and your chair. Water vapour is transparent and could not make such a bright reflection. And on an on. Really the scientists are more stupid then the economists if you made a competition of it.

        So we had this CO2-lies catastrophe coming to us.

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        Graeme Bird

        I don’t think anyone will be confused except for you Keith.

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    Graeme Bird

    What I’m saying is that the people who contrived the CO2-warming scare, if there was no wrongdoing involved, still the dysfunction that was already out there ought to have been clear to anyone working in the field.

    If you have walked through the mist or climbed up a mountain bearing low-lying clouds you will see that there is no friction between water particles in clouds. Its not even a plausible theory. Energy does not go from a diffuse energy-flux-density to a focused one. That defies any number of known laws. Hydrogen doesn’t compress on its own. For gravity to hold it in to any extent at all, it must by very powerful gravity with heavy materials. Nor would the light gasses choose to go to one wall of the dance floor while all the heavies congregated on the other. If gravity is space bending how is it that you are now feeling the force on your butt, while you read my post? Though there is no space between your butt and your chair. Water vapour is transparent and could not make such a bright reflection. And on an on. Really the scientists are more stupid then the economists if you made a competition of it.

    So we had this CO2-lies catastrophe coming to us.

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      Kalm Keith

      O.K.
      Let’s just deal with the first paragraph.

      People out in the field picking carrots can detect something dysfunctional.

      Can you clear that up first!

      KK

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        Graeme Bird

        Just read it again. Then try a less moronic question. I see Joanne isn’t applying any kind of IQ test here for commenters. Just try again.

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          Kalm Keith

          So, your main purpose in being here is to disrupt and abuse by throwing word salad around the place.

          Sad.

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            Graeme Bird

            No lets not go down the leftist reversalist path. You haven’t ever made a science comment here. So your only purpose here is to disrupt threads.

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      Kalm Keith

      Then all down to the last paragraph.

      Word salad.

      Incoherent.

      Do you intend saying anything useful?

      KK

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        Graeme Bird

        I already did. Do you intend to say something useful Keith? No you don’t. You are here to disrupt only.

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    Graeme Bird

    Keep reading. If you are in a the special class there is no need to hurry. You can get extra time in a test if you have dyslexia. But there is no time limit here. You don’t have a science background do you?

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    Graeme Bird

    You getting there champ? Don’t furrow that brow in a futile attempt to understand too quickly. No time limit. No pressure.

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    Graeme Bird

    How are you going there fella? You can do it! Persist. One time I saw a crippled boy swim three lengths of a pretty big pool and everyone clapped at the end. Don’t get discouraged. You must be a global warming believer. Do I have that right?

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    Graeme Bird

    So are you done Keith? You good? You going to keep getting in the way champ? So lets try again. There has been a lot of problems in science prior to the global warming racket. We ought to have sorted these things out. The idea that you can have cyclones without a serious energy source is one example. And its an example that relates to weather and therefore is tangential to the subject of climate. That serious energy source, that secondary energy source for warming is not being included in mainstream climate science yet. If we have a secondary energy source there is no 33 degrees celsius difference in temperature gap that we need necessarily put down to a net greenhouse effect. There is no temperature anomaly that we can point to that we need explain in this way. CO2 can be a net warmer, a net cooler, or a net warmer in some circumstance, and net cooler in others. This is all pretty old hat but its one area that has its roots prior to the warming racket. To look at a cyclone and to imagine that its gathered all that energy from mildly warm water. Thats not all that bright. And thats only one example of pre-existing shabby scientific thinking. We don’t want to be making saints out of these scientists. Its only the public service after all.

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    DOC

    It is impossible to believe (but it’s fact) that politicians of any Party could
    read the work done on this website and yet be totally supportive of the BOM and
    so totally in the thrall of the true believer activists and the UN IPCC.

    I get the feeling Morrison has his own ideas about climate change theory, but due
    to the intensity of the propaganda over so many years he has to take his moves very
    carefully. I would like to know is why Hunt refused to investigate the BOM when
    he was the Minister after, I believe, Abbott had made that call. It’s obvious some
    third Party has power over the process. It has to be agenda driven, or pecuniary
    based on Party donor business people making money from it and that business has grown too
    big and taken on a life of its own. No media takes on the obvious falsity that things like
    windmills and EV’s are fossil fuel independent, or that they have short lives, high replacement,
    disposal and handling costs around rare earths.

    The current use of the veto on all things contrary
    to the IPCC model, or the idea that man now makes climate, is the same methodology used
    by the Democrats to impeach Trump in the US House where Trump could bring no witnesses
    nor question the ‘whistle-blower’. Contrarians are treated as the medieval witches of today.
    There has to be something really dirty under all this stuff.

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    Slithers

    For those of you who are confused about all this, may I recommend a ‘Follow the Money’ approach. We skeptics’ do not get money, The CAGW proponents get money.
    What you going to believe?

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    John Johnson

    Geo John
    sent my small donation to keep the blog firing. bad choice of words for the screamers.
    does anyone know if the wind turbines and solar arrays have to undergo the same EPA and native title assessments as mining and exploration go through in W.a. which add many years and dollars to the costs?

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