JoNova

A science presenter, writer, speaker & former TV host; author of The Skeptic's Handbook (over 200,000 copies distributed & available in 15 languages).


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Australia votes 2019: Shock! Climate action bombs. Pollsters crash. Skeptics Win

Against all the polls, the money, advertising, and the non-stop media coverage, against all expectations and the betting agencies — the Extreme Climate Fix was a flop.  The Labor Plan to cut Australian emissions by 45% percent is now gone — per capita this would have been a world record sacrifice in a country already increasing their renewable energy faster than any other.

Major betting agency Sportsbet were so sure Labor would win they paid out $1.3 million on bets two days early.  Someone cleaned up with a $128,000 win for a party that lost. *

They called this a climate election and the people voted “No”

Activists thought it was safe to piggy back on a “sure thing”, and they went in hard. Volunteers even wore bright orange “I’m a climate voter” T-shirts.

“This will be a climate election“: Greenpeace

Make this a climate election:  GetUp

If Labor had won, they would be crowing right now about how it proved the people wanted action.

Political pollsters and bullied and badgered voters

Labor was tipped to win decisively in every poll. Even in the exit polls. So thousands of people told pollsters one thing, then they [...]

Election Day: Labor Green UAP Anthems by Speedy

Welcome to Election Day 2019 in Australia

LOOK OUT for die-hard skeptics David Archibald running for the Senate in WA (Fraser Anning), also for Malcolm Roberts in QLD (One Nation). For Australian Conservatives (Cory Bernardi’s Party) Jonathan Crabtree, WA.

For smaller government or skeptical policies, check out Liberal Democrats, Australian Conservatives, One Nation, Yellow Vests Australia (was ALA), Australian Christians.

Find your electorate at the AEC and see who is running.  Will the biggest pork barrel win?

– Jo

The brilliant Speedy (aka Mike Miller) lets rip

It’s been a while, but he’s back!  Speedy satirizes the satirists — he once wrote a Clarke and Dawe satire so good it went viral and people thought they wrote it and had “seen the light”. Click to see Speedy’s past posts.

____________________ The Greens National Anthem

(Music: P. McCormick. Lyrics: R. Di Natale)

I’ll save the whale,

I’ll save the trees,

My plastic bag will save the seas;

I’ll save the carbon from the air,

And save the cuddly polar bear –

Which, by the [...]

Who knew? The fourth largest nation has threatened to pull out of the Paris Agreement

In Borneo, the Dypterocarp forest, one of the species-richest in the world (F), is being replaced by oil palm plantations (G). These changes are irreversible for all practical purposes (H).

Under the radar: In a trade dispute with the EU, about six weeks ago, Indonesia threatened to leave the Paris Agreement. Just like that. –

Where was the ABC News? Showing orangutan rescues…

Two hundred and seventy million people live in Indonesia. It’s the fourth largest population in the world – only 20% fewer than the USA. It’s also the second largest coal exporter in the world, and perversely, one of only 16 countries that are even trying to meet their Paris commitment.

Here’s the situation: Indonesia has been razing forests to make palm oil to sell to the EU for biofuel to make nice weather. Skeptics and Greenpeace pointed out the hypocrisy of destroying rainforests in pursuit of a better environment (way back, circa 2010).  Finally, in 2019 the EU commission changed its palm oil policy and declared that it should not be OK for biofuel anymore. The EU parliament is considering whether to make that law.

But Indonesia is the world’s biggest palm oil producer [...]

Brazil cancels climate conference, sacks militant Greenie, calls environmentalists an “industry”

Brazil, eighth largest economy in the world is unashamedly backing out of green schemes.

In Brazil, President Jair Bolsonaro is “dismantling” environmental agencies and missions. Brazil pulled out of hosting the 2019 U.N. climate summit, and has now canceled a United Nations climate change event that was to be held in August.

Environment Minister Ricardo Salles … said he was more interested in dealing with the problems that affect Brazilians who aren’t concerned about “climate change in Paris” or “meetings in Stockholm.”

“It’s an industry,” he said of the environmental movement. “It’s an industry of consultants, an industry of lectures, an industry of seminars.”

– Anna Jean Kaiser, Washington Post

A few days ago Bolsonaro also sacked the “militant” activist appointed by his predecessor as head of The Brazil Forum for Climate Change. I can’t think why…

[Former President] Temer appointed Alfredo Sirkis to lead the forum. Sirkis, who describes himself as a “militant environmentalist,” is a co-founder of the country’s Green Party and a former congressman, as well as a former guerilla fighter who fought against Brazil’s military dictatorship.

Sirkis told Reuters he [...]

WakeUp to GetUp: Shorten will be beholden to “global network of radical left wing activists”

This election has been run on the lowest base primal tactics in Australian history. National policy has become a cult-like hate campaign. Which moderate centrist politician do we despise the most? The Alinsky-ite targeted smear campaign doesn’t attack a party, it isolates individuals, reducing voting to Good person: Bad person. The marked men and sole woman are those who question any part of the permitted agenda, especially on climate change. GetUp trashes their reputations with raining hate, manufactured scorn and lies that get cynically get “retracted” but never undone. GetUp also target the young and uninformed — using children as political activists. It only works because most of the Australian media repeats the toxic lines, and edits out the most informed views of half the electorate to be aired and debated. To be sure the ABC will seek out the odd conservative truckie or farmer (and the odder the better), but they won’t ask Australians with doctorates who disagree with their own political ideals.

Perversely if GetUp succeeds in outing the strongest skeptics from Parliament, they may become the core of a real centre-right force after the election, and freed from the Establishment grip, they may find their feet uncensored. [...]

Midweek Unthreaded

Brexit party’s sudden rise rattles the establishment duopoly

There’s a message to parties that ignore their base:

EU Election Poll Has Farage’s Brexit Party Beating Labour and Tories COMBINED

Jack Montgomery, Breitbart

New polling for the upcoming European Parliament elections shows another astonishing surge in support for Nigel Farage’s Brexit Party, while the governing Conservatives have crashed to fourth place on just 11 per cent.

The Opinium poll of 2,004 people, conducted online between the 8th and 10th of May, showed support for Mr Farage’s weeks-old party up 6 points to 34 per cent, more than Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour — down seven points to 21 per cent — and Theresa May’s Conservatives — down three points to just 11 per cent — combined.

 The remainers have their own splinter party… at 3%.

Change UK (CUK), comprised of EU loyalist defectors from Labour and the Conservatives, and intended as Remain diehards’ answer to the Brexit Party, is also struggling, down four points to a mere 3 per cent. The lack of CUK support is hardly surprising since they are competing with the Tories and Labor which both apparently stand for remainers. Brilliant Advert

This is the greatest Party Election Broadcast ever done. #VoteBrexit pic.twitter.com/pG0qXZYVRt

[...]

George Clooney puts forward best scientific argument yet, the “DumbF*****ery” thesis

George Clooney, climate smearist, is here with a slick advert to train Useful Idiots on what they should say.

George explains that because science can cure diseases, make phones work, and fly planes, therefore, the equilibrium climate sensitivity of carbon dioxide is 3.3 degrees Celcius. Ergo prompter sock post hoc, and all that. Sure.

Who’s the dumbcluck?

You might almost think Clooney is doing a parody of climate schmucks:

“Tragically, the volumes of knowledge gathered over centuries are now threatened by an epidemic of dumbf***ing idiots saying dumbf***ing things.”

Exactly, while tens of thousands of scientists protest about the death of science, Clooney is working to make it happen. Some people just fail their science tests at school, others make a global informercial.

Skip Jimmy and jump to George at 54 sec:

United to Defeat Untruthful Misinformation and Support Science, aka UDUMASS

The brand name “Science” was ripe for stealing, and if you can pronounce “subatomic particle” you can do it too.

Welcome to the drone-age where thousands of 13 year old girls are impressed by a movie star who knows how to swear.

h/t To Climate Depot

Weekend Unthreaded

What will the carbon tax cost? Bill Shorten says only a lying charlatan would ask.

How much do Australians have to pay to change the global weather?

….

First, Bill Shorten called those who ask  “dumb”. Then when that was described as his Hillary “Deplorables” moment he changed the insult from “dumb” to “liar”.

Here’s Bill Shorten in the third leaders debate:

“I accept the cost question is not a dumb question, …it’s a dishonest question.

The idea that you only look at the investment in new energy without looking at the consequences of not acting on climate change is a charlatans argument, it’s a crooked charlatans argument.”

-Bill Shorten,  May 8th:    iview, 2 mins 30 sec.,

Do you want to discuss the cost benefit ratio of a $500 billion dollar scheme the Labor Party is proposing to stop droughts and hold back the tide? Shorten doesn’t have an answer, instead he claims you shouldn’t even ask the question. You, sir, are a conniving cheat and a liar.

The definition of Charlatan:

A charlatan (also called a swindler or mountebank) is a person practicing quackery or some similar confidence trick or deception in order to obtain money, fame or other advantages via some form of pretense or deception. Synonyms for “charlatan” include “shyster“, “quack”, or “faker”.. – [...]

More renewables, more record prices

Once again, bad luck for renewables. The AEMO put out their report for the first quarter of 2019. Despite a massive growth in renewables, power prices are still not falling as predicted.

The report highlights that record high spot wholesale electricity prices were set in Victoria and South Australia, and nearly in everywhere else as well:

• Victoria and South Australia’s quarterly average spot wholesale electricity prices of $166/MWh and $163/MWh were their highest on record.

• Victoria and New South Wales recorded their highest underlying energy price on record, while Queensland, South Australia and Tasmania recorded their seconded highest energy prices on record.

These record highs were not just billion dollar price spikes, but the actual underlying energy prices as well.

Looks like a trend here:

Wholesale electricity prices, NEM, Australia, Q1, 2019 | Click to enlarge.

The news gets reported but somehow coal and heat get the blame?

Record power bills in NSW, Vic

Perry Williams, The Australian

Power prices in NSW and Victoria soared to their highest level on record in the first quarter of 2019, with the jump blamed on high coal and gas tariffs and searing summer [...]

Labor plan sends $35b in jobs and goods overseas. Carbon Tax is dumbest deal of The Century.

Where money goes, jobs follow.

Unbeknowst to 99% of Australians, we already have an emissions trading scheme.

Thank Malcolm Turnbull and Clive Palmer.

Soon, Australians are likely to be sending real money overseas and getting back paper certificates at prices set by the EU.

The legislation was snuck through just before Christmas 2015, buried under the name “Safeguard Mechanism”. It cost about $7m in the first year. But sits ticking, ready to blow-up into a billion-dollar monster any day. If Labor is elected, it won’t matter whether it has Senate control or not, the minister can just “press a button”, change the caps, and lo, the money will flow to foreigners for certificates based on intentions about atmospheric nullities — for emissions they might have made but didn’t. We’re paying to change the global weather. We could be the stupidest rich nation on Earth. But really, we’re just not paying attention.

The 35 billion dollars we will spend on these useless, fraud-prone certificates is $35 billion we are taking out of the Australian labor market, or not spending on medicine, books or holidays in Bali. Angus Taylor, Minister for Energy, has noticed that this means $10b less tax will [...]

Midweek Unthreaded

There’s a new “climate activist non-party party” in Australia

Suddenly there’s a whole lot of independent candidates running in Australia looking to copy the Kerryn Phelps success in taking the blue-ribbon conservative seat of Wentworth. They all say they are independent, but they are all sworn to climate action and GetUp supports most if not all of them. So if and when they say they’ll support a Liberal National Coalition government, ask yourself if GetUp is being fooled, or are Australian voters?

New party is born, Abbott says, as go-it-alone candidates join forces:

Brad Norington and Alice Workman, The Australian

“If they band together to promote their cause, they’ve effect­ively created a new political party,” Mr Abbott said.

“It’s a climate change party — it’s essentially a small-‘g’ green party. But because in seats like these the Greens would not get elected, they’re pretending to be something else in the hope of removing Coalition members­ of parliament.”

“It’s absolutely crystal clear in this electorate: vote Steggall, get Shorten. And around the country: vote independent, get Labor,” he said. “All of their protestations to the contrary are bunkum, abso­lutely bollocks, and the fact that GetUp is supporting nearly all of them, I [...]

Adapting to climate change “it’s in our genes” — Another reason to ignore the extinction scare

Two different models predict two totally different futures. On the left, catastrophic extinction. On the right, happy bats. Click to enlarge

Yesterday a UN supercommittee of 145 scientists from 50 countries declared that one million species are set for extinction. The same day, ten other scientists published a paper pointing out that most modelers forget to allow for genetic variation and thus overestimate the extinction rate. (It’s like they’re modelling the World of Clones – take one small study, pretend they’re all the same — extrapolate globally.) Have a look at the big difference in model outcomes in figure 1 (right).

As I keep saying, 500 million years of brutal climate change means almost every species carries around an industrial tool-kit of handy genetic tricks. Matz et al estimated corals already have the genes to survived another 250 years of projected IPCC catastrophe (in the unlikely event that it happens). Liew et al showed corals even have epigenetic tricks as well as genetics ones.  Another group showed when corals are heated something like 74 different genes are activated — often  genes that we don’t even know what they’re there for.

My favourite all time Global Adaptability Prize goes to [...]