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Donna Laframboise – Secret Santa leak of AR5 Working Group II material

BREAKING:All the files from Working Group II of AR5 are now available just as “ahem” the open-and-transparent-IPCC would want them. There are 661 files amongst 1 gigabyte of material. This includes their meeting in Japan, in Jan 2011 and a year later in San Francisco, and then Buenos Aires, 10 weeks ago.

Leaked — Working Group II drafts

Behind the scenes Donna Laframboise finds that there is a layer of aggressive activists who are privvy to the IPCC drafts process, and actively lobbying. WWF are pushing the IPCC to cite the WWF. They helped create Himalaya-gate where the IPCC ridiculously predicted the end of the massive Himalayan glaciers by 2035, and got caught embarrassingly. Donna’s book showed that “two thirds of the chapters in the 2007 IPCC report included among their personnel, at least one individual linked to the WWF. One third of the chapters were led by an WWF-affiliated author.” Apparently nothing much has changed.

Donna Laframboise writes:

My 2011 book, The Delinquent Teenager Who Was Mistaken for the World’s Top Climate Expert, documents the IPCC’s numerous credibility problems. Among these is the disturbing influence of green activists on what is supposed to be a rigorous scientific body.

The Working Group 2 section of the upcoming IPCC report contains 30 chapters. The third draft of those chapters (known confusing as the Second Order draft internally) has not yet been written, but two earlier versions reside on these sticks. What’s known as the First Order draft runs to 2,465 pages and may be downloaded in full or by chapter below.

The IPCC has confirmed the authenticity of sample documents on these sticks.

Blue data stick zipped, 26 mb – here or here (their meeting in Japan, in Jan 2011)

Gold data stick zipped, 140 mb - here or here (a year later in San Francisco)

Green data stick zipped, 675 mb - here or here (Buenos Aires, 10 weeks ago. )

Read more on her site. (Plus torrent links)

Go to Watts Up to read the reactions. (Plus torrent links)

Josh has a cartoon on Bishop Hill

Alternate links from DaveBurton on WUWT:

These Torrent links work:

Download blue.zip using magnet

Download gold.zip using magnet

Download green.zip using magnet

Download WGIIAR5_FODall.zip using magnet

Hat tip: Donna, J.J. and Russell S. Thanks!

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211 comments to Donna Laframboise – Secret Santa leak of AR5 Working Group II material

  • #
    Nano Pope

    At this rate, the IPCC might actually achieve becoming a transparent process. Now the light has been shone, I can’t wait to see what convoluted contortions they will use to scurry back into the darkness.


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    • #
      Nice One

      Sssshhhhh, it’s so secret anyone could have signed up for it.

      http://www.skepticalscience.com/brief-note-latest-ipcc-release.html


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      • #
        The Black Adder

        Nice one.. Nice one!

        Do u really think we are that stupid!!

        You reference SS… They are hardly worthy…

        ….’ While citing gray literature without first checking it thoroughly did lead to one or two relatively minor mistakes in the last IPCC report, a review of IPCC procedures determined that gray literature contains very useful and important information, and that the IPCC has guidelines in place…’ SS Latest IPCC Report.

        Hardly a convincing argument Silly One…

        Rotflmfao ….


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    • #

      The bit of data from the WWF re Himalayan glaciers did not go in the main science bit, that is rock solid, it appeared in the implications part.

      So it means nothing.

      And the Him. glaciers are retreating, melting a bit more every summer, growing a bit less every winter. WWIII will be fought between China and India for control of what is left of the glaciers which feed seven main rivers and water half the worlds population


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      • #
        The Black Adder

        Please take a Panadol and lie down Maxine!!

        You’re starting to make me sick!!


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      • #
        Richard the Great

        The rivers are fed mainly by snow melt not glaciers. If the reverse was true, ceretis parabus, melting glaciers would increase water flow in the rivers. I think you frequent this site in order to plant red herrings and be generally disruptive. Typical left wing tactic. You contribute nothing of use. For this you should be banned.


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  • #
    RichieP

    The Met Office is in retreat. This is a game changer. Harrabin’s teeth gritting can almost be heard. They’re on the run ….

    Here’s a transcript of the 8:05:30 news report on BBC’s ‘Today’, Radio 4, Jan 8 2013:

    “The Met Office has revised downwards its projection for Climate Change through to 2017. The new figure suggests that although global temperatures will be forced above their long-term average because of greenhouse gases the recent slowdown in warming will continue. More details from our environment analyst Roger Harrabin”.

    “Last year the Met Office projected that as greenhouse gases increase the world’s temperature would be 0.54 degrees warmer than the long-term average by 2016. The new experimental Met Office computer model looking a year further ahead projects that the earth will continue to warm but the increase will be about 20% less than the previous calculation. If the new number proves accurate there will have been little additional warming for two decades. The Met Office says natural cycles have caused the recent slowdown in warming including maybe changes in the sun and ocean currents. Mainstream climate scientists say that when the natural cooling factors change again temperatures will be driven up further by greenhouse gases.”

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b01pp565/Today_08_01_2013/?t=2h05m30s

    And if you can’t access that, here’s an audio file of the report:

    http://s446.photobucket.com/albums/qq187/bobclive/?action=view&current=Rec013.mp4


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    • #
      Rereke Whakaaro

      The new experimental Met Office computer model looking a year further ahead …

      Well, my-oh-my! They have got themselves a shiny, brand new, computer model.

      Obviously, this “new and improved” model not only reflects what is happening in the wider world, with more accuracy, it also contains fewer secret ingredients to ensure your reputations appear whiter than white.

      I can’t wait for the next release … rumoured to carry the code-name “Reality”.


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      • #
        AndyG55

        They are still going to look pretty silly as temps start dropping over the next few years. :-)


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      • #
        Allen Ford

        I treat this announcement from the Met Office with the same credibility as I do to the incessant TV commercials announcing the all new laundry detergent formula that is so much better than the junk they were flogging as recently as last week.


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    • #
      ExWarmist

      “Its worse better than we thought!”


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    • #

      Oh wow, 20% error, in weather and climate data? That is a bullseye!

      If you want to know reality—the Bom added two colors to its temperature map, both over 50°C and had to use one already.

      There is no dataset showing temperature declining or stable.

      Face it, global warming is here. Both poles are losing ice. The Gulf Stream has been slowed and that will have massive consequences for Europe!


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  • #
    Phil Ford

    The first coup of 2013 for us sceptics – and well done to all the ‘big name’ climate sceptic sites for getting the word (and the links) out across the net in a timely fashion. This is another blow to the ‘open and transparent’ publicly-funded IPCC and their ridiculously secretive ways. Funny how it’s always left to climate sceptics to educate warmists about the real meaning of democracy. I will look forward to reading innumerable digests from the many knowledgeable minds we have in the sceptic community, all of whom will no doubt have much to say about this data leak in the coming weeks and months.


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  • #
    Dr. Robert Gates

    How interesting to talk of trivial matters when Australia is on fire and experiencing never before recorded scorching temperatures. Amazingly blind.


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    • #

      And our hearts go out to the victims. In the long run, the best way to help people in fire prone areas in Australia is to fix inept work and corruption in science. As long as climate researchers are using flawed models based on the wrong theory, they won’t produce the predictions that help manage the fire threat.

      While a green lobby meme grips many government bodies and financially encourages the storage of flammable carbon in trees, how do we get a dispassionate cost benefit analysis of heavy fuel loads in bushland close to houses?


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      • #
        R. Gates

        Having had our share of fires this year in Colorado USA, I concur with your “hearts go out to the victims”. But I posit this to you and your faithful readers:

        Suppose…allow yourself to think it possible…that anthropogenic factors are playing some role in the current extreme heat and fires in Australia. The same question we have debated here in Colorado and other parts of the U.S. given that many models show this exact scenario unfolding on a more freqent basis in the coming decades.

        As honest skeptics, we must allow for the possibility of AGW and even CAGW. Combining this possibility that humans are actually modifying the climate through our actions with the realities that humans can conduct proper rangeland management so as to minimize the dangers of destructive wildfires seems a prudent course of action.

        This will not be a summer soon forgotten in Australia (just as it was not a summer soon forgotten in Colorado), but if any of the climate models are even close to being correct, they are summers that will be eclipsed by even greater heat and greater fire danger in the not too distant future.


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        • #
          Grant (NZ)

          Anthropogenic factors are playing a part in the current fires.

          1. There has been a build up in the fine fuels over the last couple of years which as not been reduced by controlled burning or by control of any wild fire that occurs.

          2. Home owners are not allowed to clear vegetation from around their homes which increases danger human life. (Unless you’re a kiwi migrant who does clear the land around your house and get prosecuted for it then end up being the only house left standing).


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          • #
            R. Gates

            Seems the Australians have a bit of problem with proper rangeland fire management. Maybe a tour here to Colorado would be in order to see how the clearing of brush around homes saves lives and property every year. But at least one thing Australia did do right was banning assult rifles. You can help us with that, and we’ll help with your fire management.
            [Discussion of the US debate over the Second Amendment is off topic for this thread] Fly


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          • #
            AndyG55

            “and we’ll help with your fire management”

            good, you are going to get rid of the Greens !! Thanks :)


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        • #
          Rereke Whakaaro

          Fire is a critical constituent of the ecology of Australia. If Australians could prevent fire from occurring, a lot of the natural flora and fauna would disappear. Controlled burning, was also part of the Aborigine method for hunting the larger bush animals – kangaroos, and such.

          At one time, there were rules about minimum distances allowed between any property developments and the surrounding bush. There had to be fire breaks, so that fires could be contained and controlled.

          All sensible stuff.

          But now, people are encouraged (forced?), by the Green-tinged politicians, to allow the bush to come up to the back door. Is it then any wonder why the results of bush fires appear to be worsening?


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          • #
            KinkyKeith

            R

            Says that records have been broken.

            Really?

            Can the IOC verify those new records or is the detail a little embarrassing.

            Sample Broken Record:

            Headlines

            “Record broken by 3 degrees C for highest temperature in North Melbourne on a Thursday afternoon between 2:30 and 2:33 pm during January”.

            This isn’t about records and the IOC it’s a blog about the IPCC and a glaring lack of science in modern government decision making.

            KK


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          • #
            John Brookes

            I think you’ll find, kk, that it was the rather insignificant “hottest day ever for the whole country” record that was broken.


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          • #
            KinkyKeith

            Actually John, some of the records were for lower overnight minimums.

            KK


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        • #
          FrankSW

          R. gates, just suppose the current melting of Australia is not related to CAGW, if global average temperatures have not been rising for one and a half decades it must be cold elsewhere to compensate.

          In the Northern hemisphere December had the largest worldwide snow cover for 40-50 years,Russia and Siberia had been experiencing extreme record breaking cold (coldest for, well you get the picture) this winter

          http://africa.chinadaily.com.cn/world/2012-12/27/content_16059096.htm

          and currently in China it is the coldest for decades with thousands of ships frozen in, there are also reports of extreme cold in Northern India, well the Himalayas are always cold so it must be reeaaly cold.


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          • #
            R. Gates

            Frank SW,

            The dynamics of what is currently transpiring in the SH summer and NH winter are quite different. If a separate thread wants to be created to discuss these then great, but your over simplification is just that.


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          • #
            Winston

            What Mr Gates is trying to say is that the fairly widespread NH cold snap is just weather, but the mild, brief and relatively localised SH heat “wave” in Australia is climate.

            I believe it, but then I’m pretty gullible.


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          • #
            R. Gates

            What Mr. Gates is trying to say is that a honest scientific discussion of the various dynamical elements contributing to the NH weather or the SH weather is a bit beyond the general topic of this thread which is supposed to be about the seemingly exciting news of the early release of some IPCC AR5 documents. If Jo wants to talk about the NH and SH weather and climate records that have been broken over the past year and the potential dynamics behind that, a different thread would seem a more appropriate place.


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          • #
            John Brookes

            The main difference is that the current cold in the NH is the worst in xx years. But the current heat in Oz is the worst since records began.


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        • #
          KinkyKeith

          Hello R

          The ONLY Anthropometric factors causing out of control fires is the legislated Ban on Hazard Reduction
          ie burning off undergrowth.

          This leaves homes businesses and Human Anthrops in danger of extinction at the whim of nature.

          If you saw one of your children playing near a cliff edge what would you do?

          Choices:

          1. Leave it to Gaia, what will be will be?

          or

          2. Rush over and grab the kid? (= back-burning)

          OK, I know you are not happy so some more alternatives:

          1. Leave it to Gaia, what will be will be?

          or

          2. Don’t take your kid near the cliff in the first place? ( = hazard reduction)

          ps. A little background.

          This “hot” weather is part of the normal fluctuation process known as weather.

          Get a grip, you are not helpless, learn to think independently, you are not a WWF Clone unless you accept that mission.

          In other words.

          Snap out of it!

          KK


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          • #
            Winston

            The only thing unprecedented about a very mild heat wave here in Oz is the unprecedented hyperbole of the MSM desperately trying to turn pretty normal bushfires into a catastrophe. Totally ignoring a very mild September, October, November and December on Australia’s east coast with few days above 30 on the coast, we have 1 day of atypical heat above 40, followed in lock step by a cool change with maximum of 26, overcast and showery, and this is the new “catastrophe”!

            Such manipulative and desperate alarmism really strains the credibility and is the reason why alarmists will lose this debate- they have no sense of proportion and react emotively about even the most typical weather event.


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          • #

            BTW the BBC are up to similar tricks regarding the bush fires down here, I just had my father phone me thinking that Sydney was surrounded by raging out of control bush fires. They said on the TV report that there were 40 ‘out of control’ fires in NSW and around the Sydney area… They should be prosecuted for such wanton inaccuracy.


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          • #
            handjive

            Australian BoM turns it up to eleven!
            .
            Australian Forecasters Add New Colors to Temperature Charts to Capture Record Heat

            Now, anyone aware of the Rockumentry, This is Spinal Tap, would be aware of the classic scene where the hapless guitarist, Nigel, is showing the director his room of guitars and amplifiers, especially the amp, which “goes to eleven”.

            “Why not just make eleven ten,” asks the director.
            “But this goes to eleven,” insists Nigel.

            So we have a climate map that “goes to purple.”

            And the climate stupidity continues…


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          • #
            R. Gates

            Kinky Keith asks:

            “If you saw one of your children playing near a cliff edge what would you do?

            Choices:

            1. Leave it to Gaia, what will be will be?

            or

            2. Rush over and grab the kid? (= back-burning)”

            _______

            #1 is foolish nonsense

            #2 of course (but don’t rush too fast or you may frighten the child an cause them to run away right over the cliff.)

            #3 (not allow them to play near cliffs) is the best of all, but you can’t always be everywhere your curious little child might want to wander. This general overly protective mentality leads to kids (and then adults) who have been overly coddled and protected and tend to be generally rather ineffective as self-sufficient human beings.


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          • #
            KinkyKeith

            Struck a nerve there R?

            KK


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          • #
            handjive

            @Winston
            January 9, 2013 at 7:30 am

            Quote Winston:

            ” Totally ignoring a very mild September, October, November and December on Australia’s east coast with few days above 30 on the coast,”

            The BoM is in denial!
            .

            The BoM SPECIAL CLIMATE STATEMENT 43 – INTERIM Last update 8 January, 2013

            The last four months of 2012 were the hottest on record, albeit by just 0.01 of a degree.
            ‘‘This event is ongoing with further significant records likely to be set,’’ the statement said.
            *
            September 2012:

            AUSTRALIAN SNOW SEASON EXTENDED

            2012′s best snow photos

            October 2012:

            Once-in-century October snow across SA

            The Bureau of Meteorology says Adelaide was forecast to have a top temperature of just 14 degrees today, but by midday the mercury had struggled to just 11 after an overnight low of 4.9.

            There were reports of light snow on Mt Lofty, about 15 kilometres from the city centre, in other parts of the Adelaide Hills and in a number of mid-north towns.

            Snow causes havoc across eastern Australia

            A massive cold front is moving across the eastern part of the country,
            .

            Thats some hot snow!


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          • #
            John Brookes

            KK, since when is their a ban on burning off? In WA FESA spend a lot of time doing controlled burns to reduce fuel load. The fire that ravaged Margaret River last summer was a controlled burn that got out of control.

            But there is a problem with controlled burns, at least in WA – the temporal window during which controlled burns can be carried out safely is getting smaller. Warmer temperatures, combined with drier winters make burning off unsafe most of the time.


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        • #
          Otter

          YOU!?! An ‘HOnest skeptic’!?!

          *BARRRRRRRRRRRRRFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFF*

          (sorry mods, in a bad mood: they destroyed an eagle’s nest not far from where I live, to put up a wind turbine)


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        • #
          Ace

          Mr Gates…you are missing the point of the exchanges between our Australian friends (above). Perhaps our hostess errs too far on the side of understatement. Thats her choice. Thats her style. Me, Im a loud-mouth English commoner and I will explain the plot so far as I understand it to a fellow non-Australian…in my customary fashion:

          In Australia they have a fire hazard which in Colorado you do not(correct me if Im wrong, but its almost forty years since I was last there)…its a problem CREATED by enviro-fascist whacko-culture and it is the prohibition of prudent removal of excess foliage near houses. This tree-huggers (or dead wood lubbers) charter results in hundreds of properties getting razed to ashes that would not in any looney-bin not run by its wildest inmates (which is to say the “Green Lobby”).

          Sure, ad hominem is awful but its far more awful to think that these nutters value dead brush wood above the lives of human beings. What else can you call them but c.r.a.z.y?


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        • #
          AndyG55

          “if any of the climate models are even close to being correct”

          Oh, you do have a sense of humour, I see :-) thanks for the laugh.


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        • #
          Chris M

          As honest skeptics, we must allow for the possibility of AGW and even CAGW.

          How about you being honest Gates? You are not a skeptic, but an out-and-out CAGW alarmist. Get thee back to Climate Etc. and peddle your usual wares there.


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        • #
          ExWarmist

          R Gates says …

          that anthropogenic factors are playing some role in the current extreme heat and fires in Australia.

          The available anthropogenic factors are failure to conduct effective fuel reductions, however if you are referring to CO2 concentration increase in the atmosphere you would have to show how these fires are.

          [1] Different from naturally occurring fires that have occurred during a lower CO2 concentration in the atmosphere.

          [2] How CO2 can assert an impact on the climate when there has been no significant warming for 16 years.


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          • #
            R. Gates

            I love that “no significant warming” meme that runs quite rampant through the fake-skeptic blogosphere. My youngest son, born in 2002, has spent his entire life alive during the warmest decade on instrument record. If I set my oven for 325 degrees, and it warms to that and then stops warming, if even temporarily, the chicken continues to cook.

            Finally, during your “no significant warming” period, the oceans, as the worlds largest heat sink, have continued to store more and more heat, taking up an average of about .5 x 10^22 Joules of energy per year down to 2000 meters during that time.


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          • #
            ExWarmist

            R. Gates…

            To get a catastrophe, there has to be net positive feedbacks in the climate system to increasing concentrations of GHGs (principally CO2) in the Atmosphere.

            Do you have measured, empirical proof of net positive feedbacks.

            Please name the instruments used to measure the net positive feedbacks.

            Please name the scientific papers that detail the results on net positive feedbacks.

            If you believe in a CO2 driven catastrophe in the absence of evidence for net positive feedbacks, you are not a skeptic, and to portray yourself as a skeptic is at best, ignorant, at worst – a lie.


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          • #
            johninoxley

            The instrument is called the Idiot Meter, it is in three parts. The first is fitted to the nose, it it marked AGW on the left of the scale, CAGW in the middle and I just wet my pants on the right. The second part is a stethoscope with the chestpiece removed. Method of operation is to blow into the tube to get the desired result. Of course if you blow too hard the safety valve will work and you will just blow it out your ar*e., which is what constantly happens.


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        • #
          Michelle Stirling

          I think if you review “The Great Warming” by Brian Fagan you will find that there are periods of mega-epoch droughts – during the MWP when things were pleasantly warm in Europe apparently the Mayans were destroyed by mega-epoch droughts; the west coast and mid west US were under drought (and sometimes tremendous floods); China at the turn of the century was apparently drought ridden in Shensi province esp (I’m just reading a republication of “Through Hidden Shenshi” – the bit on cannibalism makes one quiver) – so though I don’t recall off the top of my head what he said of Australia, this is certainly a real phenomenon, pre-fossil fuel use to any extent. My late mother lived through the Dirty Thirties in Canada on the prairies – she recalls sweeping prairie fires and the terror of seeing the horizon on fire and no place to run. All the best…


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        • #
          Geoffrey Cousens

          Good Dr Gates;You are no doubt unaware of the stranglehold the “Greens” have on fire prevention behavior in this country.They restrict clear fire trails,backburning and collecting,for home use,dead wood by the side of the road or anywhere else.For them deadly fires are good publicity.Its insane.


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      • #

        That is arrant nonsense Jo, offensively arrant nonsense!


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    • #
      llew Jones

      Perhaps Gates you are unaware that Australia has been prone to devastating bushfires for many thousands of years and despite the nonsense about unprecedented these current fires are pretty low on the scale of things. As I type in Melbourne Victoria it’s a little chilly so I’m rugged up. And this was predicted to be a week of extreme heat. The propaganda line from the BOM was “unprecedented” heat wave.

      In case you are ignorant of the BOM’s meddling we in Victoria have a white elephant desalination plant that will cost taxpayers billions of dollars for years to come. So much for the BOM’s advice about future rainfall deficiency because of ACC.

      You appear to be one of those still wet behind the ears youngsters who hasn’t been around long enough to know that these current bushfires are far less damaging in terms of destruction of property and lives lost than most previous Australian bushfires.

      I notice the ABC seems to have been desperate to get some fire deaths(“100 persons still unaccounted in Tasmanian bushfires”), the measure of the severity of a bushfire, without much success so far.


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      • #
        R. Gates

        As an honest skeptic, I can accept the possibility that the current fires and heat in Australia are just part of the natural variability of the climate. Equally, I accept the possibility that some anthropogenic forcing signal could be mixed in with natural variability. Also, being quite familiar with the need for headlines that the MSM machine lives on, I can also understand how they might exaggerate the situation at times. However, having watched the current heat wave in Australia develop beginning back in the SH winter months as a sudden stratospheric warming event that began in mid-July last year and has migrated down from the stratosphere to the troposphere (along with higher pressure) I can assure you that I am much more intersted in the scientific facts behind weather and climate any of the non-scientific political and social spin placed neatly around the results of those facts.


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          llew Jones

          R Gates I’d made the false assumption that you were living in Australia at present. These current bushfires to date are relatively minor using the criteria of lives lost, property damaged and area burnt out.

          Here for example is some data on the 1967 Hobart (Tasmania) bushfire:

          The 1967 Tasmanian fires were an Australian natural disaster which occurred on 7 February 1967, an event which became known as the Black Tuesday bushfires. They were the most deadly bushfires that Tasmania has ever experienced, leaving 62 people dead, 900 injured and over seven thousand homeless

          and the extent:

          110 separate fire fronts burnt through some 2,640 square kilometres (652,360 acres)(264,000 ha) of land in Southern Tasmania within the space of five hours. Fires raged from near Hamilton and Bothwell to the D’Entrecasteaux Channel as well as Snug. There was extensive damage to agricultural property along the Channel, the Derwent Valley and the Huon Valley. Fires also destroyed forest, public infrastructure and properties around Mount Wellington and many small towns along the Derwent estuary and east of Hobart.

          Initial assessment of damage from the 2013 Fires:

          As of 5 January, up to 40 fires were burning across Tasmania and at least 100 properties were destroyed[4] including 65 at Dunalley where the police station, primary school and bakery were destroyed,[9] 15 at nearby Boomer Bay, 12 at Bicheno,[8] and 14 at Sommers Bay.[10]

          More than 20,000 hectares (49,000 acres) of bushland were burned out.[1].

          One can readily see that despite about a 2C higher maximum temperature than in 1967, the 2013 bushfires have had a fraction of the impact of the former disaster.

          It could be shown that that comparison also is the same for fires reaching back into the early to mid 1900s in other Australian States when compared with the current bushfires in other States.


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            AndyG55

            The east coast of Tasmania is actually a very dry place, very low rainfall, and the vegetation is nearly always tinder dry during summer.

            Much more care has to be taken, which means getting rid of green legislation.


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            AndyG55

            If you are the R.Gates that used to troll at other sites, you are neither honest, nor a skeptic.


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            AndyG55

            ps, and when you have masses of tinder dry vegetation, building up near houses, and legislation stops its removal, you have a recipe for disaster.

            And the people responsible are those that created the legislation.

            They should be held to account, financially and legally.


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            R. Gates

            Illew,

            Has the media been reporting the record high temperatures in Australia incorrectly?


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            John Brookes

            Yes, Llew, there was more damage and loss of life in the past. Back then we didn’t do water bombing. We didn’t have accurate weather forecasts. We didn’t have mobile phones. We are doing a better job now of coping with disasters. But that doesn’t mean that the weather/fire is any less intense.


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            llew Jones

            “Yes, Llew, there was more damage and loss of life in the past. Back then we didn’t do water bombing. We didn’t have accurate weather forecasts. We didn’t have mobile phones. We are doing a better job now of coping with disasters. But that doesn’t mean that the weather/fire is any less intense.”

            If I were not a refined gentleman, JB, I would suggest that your first 5 points are unadulterated bullshit and the 6th needs to be qualified.

            “Victorian bushfires (January-February 2009)”

            “In early 2009, bushfires devastated Victoria, causing unprecedented loss of life and property. The Victorian Coroner’s Office confirmed that 173 people lost their lives during the fires, which directly impacted 51 townships, destroying over 2,000 homes, along with many businesses, schools and kindergartens.”

            In that context let’s examine your words of wisdom:

            (1) there was more damage and loss of life in the past.

            (2) Back then we didn’t do water bombing.

            (3) (Back then) We didn’t have accurate weather forecasts.

            (4) (Back then) We didn’t have mobile phones.

            (5) We are doing a better job now of coping with disasters.

            We don’t expect any better from CAGW believers so don’t feel too bad about those very minor stumbles. It could have been much worse if you’d really applied your mind to it.

            Which reminds me of that other true believer R.Gates.
            Armed with a bit of science about the absorption and emission of infrared radiation by CO2 that man of faith is convinced that the piddling bit of CO2 we humans have emitted, emit and will emit is enough to heat up the planet and make it very uncomfortable for all of us.

            Unlike your tiny stumbling around the bushfire business, he has failed massively to recognise that there are countless other very powerful drivers of weather events that make up our highly complex, chaotic and only partially understood Earth climate system. But as I said we don’t expect any better thought processes from believing alarmists.

            Think you may find it’s not so much even a record temperature that does the real damage but the wind speed and direction which of course is why bushfires 100 and 150 years ago could be just as powerfully devastating.


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          inedible hyperbowl

          If you lived here, you would know the expression “would not know if his arse was on fire”. It applies to you!


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          Otter

          You DISGUST me with the use of the term ‘honest skeptic,’ you LYING [snip][snip][snippety-[snip]]


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            R. Gates

            Otter,

            You seem to know a nice selection of profanity, but do you even know what characteristics an honest skeptic would have? Off to Google now for you, eh?


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          Richard the Great

          -> R Gates According to the “experts” the second hottest day in Australia occured in the 1970s and this record was beated yesterday by 0.2°C. What caused this exceptionally hot day in 1970? The earth has been warming on and off since the end of the Maunder Minimum circa 1690. Would you expect the hottet temperatures to be at the beginning, middle or end of a 300 plus year warmign period? The IPCC said that mankind could not have had a discernable effect on the climate before 1990 and since 1990 we have had 9 years of warming 14 years of not warming. This is not to say the warming trend will not reassert itself but it started long before 1990 and before the industrial revolution. The current rate of warming is no higher than has been observed in the past before the industrial revolution and certainly before 1990.

          Now prove CO2 did it. (50 marks)


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            John Brookes

            9 years of warming and 14 years of not warming? Why not just say 23 years of warming? Or maybe you can try harder, and see how many years of cooling you can find…


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            AndyG55

            “Now prove CO2 did it. (50 marks)”

            they are STILL sitting on ZERO, after how many years and how many billions of dollars.

            FAIL !!!!!


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            AndyG55

            John, in the only reliable record, there has only been one very short period of warming in the last 34 years, that being the step jump in 1998.

            The satellite record is basically flat in the periods either side, from 1979-1997 and from 1999-now.


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          Jaymez

          R. Gates thanks for your input. A couple of points. Earlier you wrote:

          ” If I set my oven for 325 degrees, and it warms to that and then stops warming, if even temporarily, the chicken continues to cook.”

          I totally agree with this point, but it is a point most climate alarmists seem to be unaware. The see a questionable correlation between global average temperature and atmospheric CO2 and declare that CO2 is definitely the main cause of global warming. They point to no rise in solar activity as evidence that global warming has nothing to do with the sun. Yet constant solar activity has the ability to continue ‘cooking’ the earth until we have a decline in solar activity, and then it will take some time for any cooling to become evident. So I’m just saying modellers really do a poor job because it is impossible to model the global climate.

          Secondly, there is no doubt that parts of Australia are experiencing unusually warm temperatures and in some places they are record temperatures, but there will always be new records set somewhere at some time. Certainly the extent of the bush fires are devastating, but do not compare to significantly worst bush-fires which have been experienced in every State in the past in Australia. Anyone who is fully aware of Australia’s history would not be jumping to conclusions and saying this is some new type of event.

          Thirdly, the heat wave has not been building since mid last year. Until a few weeks ago, I had been complaining how cool it had been in the spring and summer in Western Australia. In November I also travelled throughout coastal and interior South Australia and experienced largely unseasonably cool weather which I did not pack for!

          Finally, the ‘records’ the Bureau of Meteorology (BOM)publish are questionable because the BOM have spent significant resources adjusting the historical raw temperature data in Australia which has dramatically ‘cooled’ the first half of last century and made a lot of previously record high temperatures disappear from the record books.

          The BOM have claimed the adjustments were made for a range of reasons including faulty equipment, poor location, incomplete records and so on, and when originally questioned they claimed that on balance the adjustments had little impact to overall temperature trends with some negative and some positive adjustments. However, research proved that the ‘adjustments’ overwhelmingly created a warming trend which accounted for at least 40% of the warming trend claimed in Australia.

          When asked to supply details of how the adjustments were made, the BOM refused. The BOM is not independently audited. You can read more about this here: http://joannenova.com.au/2011/02/announcing-a-formal-request-for-the-auditor-general-to-audit-the-australian-bom/

          It is interesting looking at the BOM records now. I grew up in Australia knowing that Marble Bar was the hottest place in Australia and held the record for the hottest recorded temperature. When I visited there in 1975 I can still remember that claim on a sign in the town along with the record temperature which I can’t recall.

          Now when I look at the BOM data for Marble bar it tells me the record high temperature in Marble Bar was 48.6C on 11 January 2008 and the earliest data available is only back to 2001. Clearly the pre-2001 data was considered too warm to suit the BOM purposes. Yet the historical records at Wikipedia tell us Marble Bar set a world record of most consecutive days of maximum temperatures of 37.8 degrees Celsius (100 degrees Fahrenheit) or more, during a period of 160 such days from 31 October 1923 to 7 April 1924. So the data is available somewhere!

          The BOM would also be aware of the record heat wave conditions in 1896 but they also appear to have disappeared from the record books. While this current heatwave is pretty bad, the 1896 heatwave shows how bad they it can get as detailed in this blog http://joannenova.com.au/2012/11/extreme-heat-in-1896-panic-stricken-people-fled-the-outback-on-special-trains-as-hundreds-die/

          It is as if history is being erased. For all that we hear about recent record-breaking climate extremes, records that are equally extreme, and sometimes even more so, are ignored. In January 1896 a savage blast “like a furnace” stretched across Australia from east to west and lasted for weeks. The death toll reached 437 people in the eastern states.

          “and people dropping dead in the streets from Perth through Adelaide to Sydney, the heat wave was described as being universal from west to east . It went north into Queensland and south through Victoria.…twice, by which time Australians considered themselves to be “Under Fire”.”

          But getting back to record temperatures, just to show you the BOM’s claimed all time record of 50.7C at Oodnadatta in 1960 is a fallacy (if you hadn’t already worked it out from the foregoing), I’ve dug up some other record temperatures for you:

          18 December 1828 Buddah Lake NSW 129F = 53.9C http://www.gutenberg.org/files/4328/4328-h/4328-h.htm

          16 February 1845 near Moreton Bay 135F = 57.2C http://trove.nla.gov.au/ndp/del/page/635825

          11 November 1845 near Tibooburra NSW 129F+ = 54.0C + the thermometer broke! http://ebooks.adelaide.edu.au/s/sturt/charles/s93n/chapter12.html

          27 December 1845 Bogan River NSW 129F = 53.9C http://ebooks.adelaide.edu.au/m/mitchell/thomas/tropical/complete.html

          21 January 1846 near Coonabarabran NSW 131F = 55.0C
          22 January 1846 near Coonabarabran NSW 132F = 55.6C http://ebooks.adelaide.edu.au/s/sturt/charles/s93n/chapter5.html

          16 January 1889 Cloncurry QLD 127.6F = 53.1C http://www.gungahlinweather.com/articles/factsandfigures.htm The BOM no longer accept this record because they claim a non-standard temperature screen was being used. It was apparently a converted beer crate versus a Stevenson screen wooden cabinet. The BOM claim the temperature was most likely 48C – 49C but provide no calculation as to how they arrived at this figure. But instead of adjusting the data scientifically, they have simply dropped it off altogether and according to BOM records, Cloncurry’s new top temperature record is just 46.9C from 1 Dec 2006. But then their records now show Cloncurry’s earliest official temperature record only dates back to 1979. Which has conveniently rid the system of those nasty high first half century temperatures.

          14 January 1896 Cue SA 125F = 51.7C http://trove.nla.gov.au/ndp/del/article/3077226

          7 January 1906 Mildura 124F = 50.7C http://www.weatherzone.com.au/climate/station.jsp?lt=site&lc=76077

          3 January 1909 Bourke NSW 125F = 51.7C http://trove.nla.gov.au/ndp/del/article/16837400?zoomLevel=5

          2 January 1960 Oodnadatta SA 50.7C http://www.smh.com.au/environment/weather/temperatures-off-the-charts-as-australia-turns-deep-purple-20130108-2ce33.html

          Clearly you couldn’t blame the record temperatures in the 1800′s and early to mid 1900′s on human green house gas emissions given the lack of discernible response to temperature over the last 16 years by a 58% increase in GHG emissions since 1990!


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          lmwd

          R Gates

          As an honest skeptic

          Seriously? I teach my managers to look out for little red language flags like this. The fact that you felt the need to preface your opening sentence as such tells me that the opposite is true. Like when an employee starts their sentence with “honestly, I was sick on Monday”. Indeed, you then showed yourself to be a dishonest alarmist.

          I accept the possibility that some anthropogenic forcing signal could be mixed in with natural variability.

          The only influence of humans we have here is dangerous green policy as already well outlined by others and the preponderance of pyromaniac crazies that seem to come out of the woodwork when announcements are made that we have ‘ideal bush fire conditions’. That is hot, dry winds that sweep across inland Australia. You are aware that inland Australia is desert? If it’s not the crazies we’re dealing with, then it is delinquent teenagers who think they might relieve their school holiday boredom by lighting fires, because naturally putting lives at risk is far more exciting than x-box. There have been numerous arrests for arson!


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        Todays bushfires are not so much bushfires when they really get going as firestorms. And with the longer, hotter warm seasons we have even more bushfires!


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          AndyG55

          That’s what happens if you let very dry underbrush just build up.

          Always has, always will.

          Thanks goodness we have a cooler period coming for probably the next 30-60 years, Maybe by then common sense will prevail.

          Lets just hope its not the minimum some of the real climate scientists think could be possible.

          Unfortunately, the current minor atmospheric increase in CO2 cannot help frozen plants.
          Its huge benefits only apply to plants in a thriving warm environment.


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      Rob H

      Have a cold drink Gates. You know nothing about Austalian climate (its not called the land of flood and drought for nothing). I live here and you are talking rubbish. There was a drought in the 1890s’ so severe it almost led to Austalia not becoming an independent country. Thousands left Australia during that drought. In addition in the past 1000 years there have been droughts that lasted for decades. Same with North America, the great plains are notoriously subject to long droughts and low rainfall. That’s why there are no trees.
      Just as the number of hurricanes in the Atlantic have dropped over the past 75 years we have scare mongers like you declaring “severe” weather events. Sandy was barely a tropical storm by the time it reached NY and NJ, but poor development planning allowed houses to be built on land historically hit by much worse storms.


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      AndyG55

      Just a little hint: when the climate has been climbing out for a era called “The Little Ice Age”, temperatures increase, and new max temps are set. Basic, basic, stuff !!!

      There is NO proven anthropogenic causation, if there is, show it to us. (this has been asked for many years, but….. nada, nothing, zip…….just silence)

      Its just a natural gradual temperature increase, and I suspect we have may have actually reached the top, and its about to head downwards again,

      but if it decides to keep creeping up, Its only natural !!!


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      Louis Hissink

      I believe Burke and Wills, or some other individual exploring the Australian interior during the 19th century had a thermometer explode while measuring the ambient temperature in the shade of a tree. The thermometer was calibrated to 125 degrees Fahrenheit, which puts it at ~50 degrees Celsius. I also recall during 1971 listening to our national radio at a place called North Pole, near Marble Bar in the Pilbara region that we had extreme temperatures, but our thermometer, hanging in the tree, was reading far higher than the reported temperature. So these temperatures are not really unprecedented, and it’s like the tree in the forest – does it make a sound when it falls when no one is there? Does the temperature rise higher if no one is there to measure it?

      Mind you they still are not farming in Greenland where they used to during the MWP, so what temperature does the earth need to reach before previous conditions are arrived at? I add that the French and English are also unable to grow grapes in the regions they used to, as well.

      Everything else being equal, we have since the MWP had a little ice age, and so far we have not returned to those previous temperatures. When and if we do, there might be case of being concerned about high temperatures, but until we are, in a global sense, at a lower temperature than the MWP, then it isn’t a problem.


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      • #

        Last night, on the redundant 24-hour “news” channel operated at taxpayers’ expense by the ALP, had a snippet on the “new colour” that the BOM had “needed” to show the modelled surface temperatures in Australia’s interior. Although the ABC interviewer was trying to tease predictions of imminent immolation from the BoM guy; the latter said that the models had not previously had the resolution and “precision” to show the temperature range distinctly.

        Take-home facts:
        1. It’s modelling the surface temperature. A model based on surface insolation; the sun’s energy incident on the surface, causing it to heat; which assumes that they know the nature of the ground (albedo, emissivity, specific heat, …)
        2. It’s the surface temperature; not the air temperature. The surface temperature in my back yard can reach 40⁰C in winter, if it’s dry and sunny. In summer, the paving’s surface temperature exceeds 50⁰C on days when there is not continuous cloud cover. Go to a shopping centre and measure the car park’s tarmac surface temperature 2 hours after noon in mid-summer.


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          Louis Hissink

          Surface temperature? You sure? That isn’t sneaky, that is plainly dishonest – their political masters must be feeling some stress and turning up the panic knob a little. Must be an election coming soon.


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            The BoM guy started off explaining how the sun warms the surface and the surface warms the air and how clear skies in summer can cause very high surface temperatures. He mentioned several times that those were modelled forecast temperatures. I believe that this is the model’s public output. With the handy caveat:

            These weather maps are produced from computer models and are used by forecasters to develop the official weather maps, which contain added features such as cold fronts.

            So the maps aren’t even forecasts in themselves, just an intermediate tool for locating the dartboard on the wall.

            He wasn’t being deceptive/dishonest. It may be a difficult concept to grasp that the surface has to be hotter than the air in order to heat it.. especially for those who majored in ideology.


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        Jaymez

        Hi Louis, I’ve provided some data to support your recollections at #4.3.1.5


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      AndyG55

      One small bushfire in Tassie, and a several others around different parts of the mainland.

      THIS IS NOTHING UNUSUAL !!!!

      Par for an Aussie summer.

      actually, it seems to have been a bit quieter this year, bushfire-wise, than usual.


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        Apoxonbothyourhouses

        He’s playing with you boys maybe I should rephrase that? Gates (never trust a blogger that spruiks his credentials) is successfully pulling your chains. He is not there to learn but to get his jollies from winding you up. The sooner you starve him of material the sooner he will slink away to some other blog.


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        R. Gates

        No record high temperatures, eh? Oh, those lying green media warmists…what won’t they stoop to!


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          AndyG55

          As long temps rise out of a very cold Little Ice Age..

          temperatures rise, and the occasional new record will be set…

          That is not unusual.

          I suppose you would rather we had temps like those of the LIA ??

          If so, then just head off to Scotland or northern Russia or Alaska for the next 20 years.

          But no.. you choose Colorado..


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          llew Jones

          Have a look at the way our BOM fiddles the temperature records and you should not wonder why we are very skeptical of their highest temperature records. Why did the BOM seek to discredit some much higher maximum temperatures? By that time, notice there is reference to 2006, it had swallowed hook line and sinker CAGW and was actively promoting the idea that our dams would never fill again. So is it unreasonable to assume they simply were in effect “hiding the decline”.

          Thus it was this organisation that at about that time, under a strong belief in CAGW, advised the Victorian State government that our dams would never fill again. That cost us Victorians a massively expensive desal plant that is unlikely to ever be used. That’s the sort of skulduggery the alarmist BOM get up to.

          Here’s a couple of BOM fiddles with Victorian temperatures possibly to create the impression that natural climate variability was not causing the new lower maxiumum temperatures 100 and 150 years later. You may be credulous. Those of us familiar with the BOM propaganda machine are not:

          A. Melbourne’s highest temperature on record, 117°F (47.2°C),on Black Thursday, 6 February 1851-but is it valid?

          Harvey Stern, John Cornall-Reilly, Patrizia McBride, Bureau of Meteorology, Australia
          and Adrian Fitzgerald, La Trobe University, Australia

          http://www.amos.org.au/documents/item/382

          B. Victoria’s highest temperature on record, 123.5°F (50.8°C), at Mildura,on 6 January 1906 – but is it valid?

          Harvey Stern, John Cornall-Reilly, Patrizia McBride,Bureau of Meteorology, Australia
          and Adrian Fitzgerald, La Trobe University, Australia

          http://www.amos.org.au/documents/item/383


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          John Brookes

          Real skeptics search for the flaws in their own arguments, thus avoiding confirmation bias.

          No, this place is full of real “skeptics”, and that is not what they do! Real “skeptics” only abandon an argument when it lies battered and burnt beyond recognition. And then when no one is looking, they take it away, give it a paint job and a new name, and wheel it out again.

          But I hope the “skeptics” are right. Because the climate is a worry.


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          Jaymez

          Just in case you miss it R Gates, see the details on the BOM’s track record on data ‘adjustment’ and some historical temperature records at #4.3.1.5

          I certainly don’t think the media stoop to lying. But they don’t have the time or inclination to even check their own archived records. But the spokesperson for Climate Services at the BOM, Dr David Jones has clearly shown he is less interested in science and more interested in activism. He certainly doesn’t have an open mind.

          But like many of the senior and long serving staff at the BOM have pinned their credibility to man-made global warming. Yesterday Dr David Jones was making the predictions about new record temperatures, with the issue of the new colours on the forecast chart. Just two hours later that forecast was re-issued with all of the new colours above 50.0C suddenly gone! But he had already achieved the press coverage he wanted and the new forecast chart had gone viral.

          Jones as been controlling the BOM data for some time. And he has made no secret about what he thinks. In this leaked email to Professor Phil Jones at the Hadley Climate Research Unit, East Anglia University, who was central in the Climategate scandal, David Jones showed his true bias: (my bolds)

          7 Sep 2007
          “Thanks Phil for the input and paper. I will get back to you with comments next week.
          Fortunately in Australia our sceptics are rather scientifically incompetent. It is also
          easier for us in that we have a policy of providing any complainer with every single
          station observation when they question our data (this usually snows them)
          and the
          Australian data is in pretty good order anyway.
          Truth be know,[sic] climate change here is now running so rampant that we don’t need
          meteorological data to see it. Almost everyone [sic] of our cities is on the verge of running out
          of water and our largest irrigation system (the Murray Darling Basin is on the verge of
          collapse
          - across NSW farmer have received a 0% allocation of water for the coming summer
          and in Victoria they currently have 5% allocations – numbers that will just about see the
          death of our fruit, citrus, vine and dairy industries
          if we don’t get good spring rain).
          The odd things is that even when we see average rainfall our runoffs are far below average,
          which seems to be a direct result of warmer temperatures. Recent polls show that
          Australians now rate climate change as a greater threat than world terrorism.

          It is terrible that a public servant and a scientist should treat enquiries from the public with such disdain. But it is worse that his mind is so closed. Of course virtually everything he wrote in his smug email to his fellow climate alarmist has turned out to be completely wrong. Global average temperatures have shown no rising trend for the last 16 years. The Murray Darling is the healthiest it has been for decades, run off is well above average and dams are substantially full to the point where the nation has $12 Billion in mothballed desalination plants costing millions of dollars just to maintain. You can read more about Jones and that email here: http://blogs.news.com.au/heraldsun/andrewbolt/index.php/heraldsun/comments/climategate_2_how_the_bureaus_david_jones_showed_sceptics

          Unfortunately it is the activist, alarmist advice of people like Jones from the BOM which have cause Australia to spend Billions of dollars in unnecessary areas while vital parts of our transport, education and health systems are crumbling and our Governments get more into debt. They are also to blame for keeping the Wivenhoe dam topped up before the wet season in 2011 removing the primary purpose for which it was built, flood mitigation, significantly contributing to the loss of life and billions of dollars in flood damage in Brisbane in that year.


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      mc

      How interesting to talk of trivial matters when Australia is on fire and experiencing never before recorded scorching temperatures. Amazingly blind.

      Are you trying to suggest that people directly affected by recent Australian bushfires would find the topic of this thread trivial by comparison with the trauma, devastation and death caused by those fires? I certainly don’t. My home, along with all its contents was destroyed completely by the 2009 fires. Everything I owned except one guitar that I took with me and the car I escaped in was lost.
      Of course I was extremely lucky to escape with my life. All my tools of trade perished along with several decades worth of my own musical compositions and recordings. Then there was all of my writings and photographic memorabilia, all gone, all totally irreplaceable. What I find “amazingly blind” is that the o-so-wise and noble authorities who preside over land management policy in the jurisdiction where I had been living, find my life and all human life so “trivial” that to remove even a stick of wood or fallen branch from the side of the road is considered a legally punishable offence because that stick of wood may provide “habitat” for some bug or rodent. Of course bugs and rodents need and deserve habitat too but what about my freaking habitat! I was living in a tinderbox and yes, nothing could have stopped the carnage of that day and the following several weeks. Those fires seemed like they would never end; but the tinderbox conditions were made even worse by a set of green environmentalist policies that seems to have placed habitat for bugs as a higher priority than human safety. Again I have to stress that the fires of black Saturday would have been a disaster, green policies or no green policies, but to live through such a thing and witness so much suffering, trauma and death in the knowledge that human life and wellbeing has been treated with such apparent distain by the “great and good” is to have the trauma of the event compounded by orders of magnitude, and I know that many people who survived had that same experience of greatly increased trauma and a sense of having been betrayed by authorities who’s land management policies can reasonably be perceived as treating humans as of lesser importance than bugs and critters. As for the suggestion that the death and disaster was to some extent, whatever the extent, self induced because we have put some CO2 into the air, well that really puts the vile icing on the stinking putrid cake!


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    KR

    So – draft material has once again been released by people who have violated their confidentiality agreements. Including the “do not quote or cite” on every page.

    Meh. This happened before, wasn’t a big deal then, won’t be a big deal now.

    Just keep in mind the fact that this is a draft – there will be improvements between this version and what gets released, based on feedback, as that is the very nature of a review process.

    It certainly doesn’t mean that every reviewer comment in this info dump will be taken as gospel – any meaningful commentary on the report is going to have to wait until it’s released.


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      …. there will be improvements between this version and what gets released, based on feedback ….

      As I understand it, the scientists have finished submitted their review comments. Now it is the turn of the WWF and other activists to put their spin on it. We will see if their efforts result in a major change of message. In particular if the final SPM sheds the admissions of previous alarmism made in the draft.
      Your citing of RealClimate is particularly interesting. It was started by Michael Mann and his mates as a counter-blast to Steve McIntyre destroying his pseudo-science.


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      Rereke Whakaaro

      Oh dear, KR.

      Hurting a bit are we?

      “Confidentiality agreements”, in the context of matters of public policy, especially within the UN infrastructure, are also sometimes referred to as “Chatham House Rules”, (at least by the Brits, who came up with the principle).

      The Chatham House Rules principle does not restrict discussion of the material in any document or debate. What it does restrict, is the attribution of any part of that document, or any statement made in a debate, to the person or persons responsible.

      This is supported by the “do not quote or cite” statement on every page.

      And yes, it is a draft. And yes, it will be improved between now and when it is published. In the rest of the world, this is called “Proof Reading” and “Editing”.

      But the review process will not — or should not, if the process has integrity — make any fundamental changes to the material content of the report. If a reviewer has the ability to change things at will, then why not have them write it in the first place? No, that work was done before this draft was prepared. There may be a few changes to syntax and grammar (not all contributors are native English speakers), but the guts of the report will be in the draft.

      What will contain the real political message is the Summary for Policy Makers, which will be released well before the final publication of this detailed material.

      This draft material will allow the Sceptics to compare the recommendations in the Summary, with the technical material that is supposedly backing that recommendation, and cry foul if they to not actually align.

      Previously, the release of the Working Group material has been delayed until the debate on the “Policy” has concluded, which makes it very hard to compare the rationale with the decisions before any political actions have been committed to. With this material in hand, we now have the opportunity to compare one with the other, and point out any discrepancies to policy makers before they have committed themselves to doing anything rash.


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        KR

        Rereke Whakaaro“Hurting a bit are we?”

        No – just amused by the sound and fury over this. Not to mention being more than a bit disgusted by the personal ethics of those who violated their agreements.

        What it does restrict, is the attribution of any part of that document, or any statement made in a debate, to the person or persons responsible.

        I’ll note again “do not quote or cite”, which is explicitly a restriction agreed to by the reviewers – to not quote or cite, which includes not dumping the entire document and all the reviewer comments to the web. Unless you think that isn’t “quoting”?

        But the review process will not … make any fundamental changes to the material content of the report

        Any serious review has the possibility of pointing out the need for fundamental changes, bringing additional literature to note, indicating potential errors that need to be addressed. I do think you’re correct at the overview level, though – the essence of the science isn’t going to change: the data supporting the anthropogenic greenhouse effect has only become stronger over time, the uncertainties continue to be reduced through better information.

        But again – I don’t think this is leak is going to be important. There will be those who yell about changes between drafts, as if they were indications of conspiracy, or of malfeasance, or of influence by little green men, etc, rather than the normal review/edit process. That’s inevitable with documents that have global impact, sadly enough. But the only versions really worth discussing (IMO) are the final ones.

        So – IPCC drafts leaked again? Meh.


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          Rereke Whakaaro

          KR

          Look again at the final paragraph in my comment at 6.2.

          Previously, legislation could be prepared and passed, based on the Summary for Policy makers, which contained conclusions, but little rationale.

          The rationale was delayed until the Working Group material was released, some time later, by which time the politicians were committed.

          Whether people believe that this delay was intentional, or merely poor planning and management, is up to them. The fact is that some ill-advised legislation has been passed, by various Governments, based on the summary information. Do not forget that, in politics, it is usually easier to tough it out than admit you were wrong or “misinformed”.

          As such, the IPCC process leads to bad law. This “advanced copy” of the final Working Group documentation, may go some way to allowing that risk to be mitigated in future.

          In that context, it is significant in its own right. The fact that it may have the effect of restricting some of the wilder claims getting through into the Working Group papers (Himalayan Glaciers, anyone?), is a bonus.

          Finally, if the Working Group papers are considered by the IPCC (under the standard UN security rules) to be confidential, and thus requiring a Confidentially Agreement to be signed by all parties, then the appropriate documents would be marked “Confidential” (or Restricted, or Secret, or some other classification). The fact that they are annotated with “do not quote or cite” means that it is the attribution of statements that are controlled, not the actual content of the statement itself — Chatham House Rules, as I stated before.

          That does not mean that the participants have not had to sign a Confidentiality Agreement (or even submitted to security vetting), it just means that this material is not formally classified in regards to its content.


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            KR

            Politicians acting too quickly? I don’t think I’m familiar with the breed you’re discussing. :)

            On the IPCC publications alone – 1990 FAR, 1995 SAR, 2001 TAR, 2007 AR4 just for the major summaries: all out, heavily reviewed, even nit-picked, over the last 20+ years. Hardly a rush job.

            Finally – If _I_ were to agree to terms for the review that included not quoting draft copies (which all the reviewers do, something in common with most pre-publication reviews), an agreement stated on every page, I would consider it a failure of personal integrity to violate that agreement. You are welcome to disagree… although quite frankly that leaves me scratching my head over _your_ standards.


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            Ross

            RW

            I note a comment on another site which is quite interesting. The leaked information contains all the reviewers comments. Apparently each reviewer does not see each other’s comments . so this leak must come from “much deeper” in the IPCC.
            ( The release a few weeks ago was from a reviewer).


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            Rereke Whakaaro

            KR

            Politicians acting too quickly?

            Policy Statements — what they propose to do about “it” — can be made at the speed of Public Relations, and are often mandated by the regular press feeding times.

            If the questions will be asked, then the “policy spin” must be there. It doesn’t need substance, but the basic direction must have been decided, and once it is on tape, it cannot be retracted without political cost. The whole point of the Summary for Policy Makers, is to address (and dare I say, encourage) that.

            Perhaps “my” standards are different to yours. I would be surprised if they were not, given that we probably come from entirely different backgrounds.

            The security classification system is designed to define the minimum level of protection that must be afforded to any material. You might choose to add your own sense of integrity to that and choose a more rigourous personal position. If so, good for you. But when you are in the thick of it, and needing to meet deadlines, you might find you tend to go by the absolute letter of the requirement to get things done. Life is just too short to do otherwise.


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            Rereke Whakaaro

            Ross #6.2.1.1.2

            Thanks for the head’s up. You don’t happen to have a reference for the other site, do you?


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            Ross

            RW @ 6.2.1.1.4

            It came from Bishop Hill

            http://www.bishop-hill.net/blog/2013/1/8/go-read-donna.html#comments

            See Paul Mathews comment @ 5.06pm


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      Bite Back

      So – draft material has once again been released by people who have violated their confidentiality agreements. Including the “do not quote or cite” on every page.

      Isn’t it funny how, when a whistleblower exposes someone you don’t like, it’s OK but when someone you do like is exposed, it’s not OK?

      No further comment needed.


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        Apoxonbothyourhouses

        It’s my bloody money so ABC, BBC, IPCC you can all get stuffed if you think you are so special that we taxpayers are not entitled, yes ENTITLED to see how our, yes OUR money is being spent. I’m gagging on spin so congratulation to whoever released the info and long may you be successful.


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    MadJak

    I think it’s prudent that the draft documentation get’s sent out for a wider review.

    You never know what we the public might uncover and draw attention to.

    After all – wouldn’t you prefer problems to be found in a draft document than your released document?

    BTW – I am making the assumption the IPCC want this report to be correct and that they don’t want this report to be just a vehicle for the political gain of fringe activists.


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    Bite Back

    More leaks? Good!

    The IPCC and all its supporters, stooges, hangers on and anyone else associated with this sickening imitation of science deserve all the leaks they can get. May their boat sink permanently beneath the waves, taking (C)AGW with it.

    The sooner the better!

    They should be right at home where the sunlight doesn’t penetrate.


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    pat

    what a disconnect we are having between the following SMH/BOM/Cubby and the BBC/UK Telegraph reports from the Met Office!!! with the leak of AR5 Working Group II material and Anthony Watts’ recent NCDC revelations, it would appear we are at a TIPPING POINT:

    9 Jan: SMH: Ben Cubby: Records will keep tumbling with blistering heatwaves here to stay
    The hottest average maximum temperature ever recorded across Australia – 40.33 degrees, set on Monday – might stand for only 24 hours and be eclipsed when all of Tuesday’s readings come in. The previous record had stood since December 21, 1972.
    ”The current heatwave – in terms of its duration, its intensity and its extent – is unprecedented in our records,” said the Bureau of Meteorology’s manager of climate monitoring and prediction, David Jones…
    “Those of us who spend our days trawling – and contributing to – the scientific literature on climate change are becoming increasingly gloomy about the future of human civilisation,” said Liz Hanna, convener of the human health division at the Australian National University’s climate change Adaption Network.
    ”We are well past the time of niceties, of avoiding the dire nature of what is unfolding, and politely trying not to scare the public,” Dr Hanna said. ”The unparalleled setting of new heat extremes is forcing the continual upwards trending of warming predictions for the future, and the time scale is contracting.”
    Around the world, this year could be the hottest ever recorded by modern instrumentation, according to a recent study by Britain’s Met Office…
    http://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/records-will-keep-tumbling-with-blistering-heatwaves-here-to-stay-20130108-2cetq.html

    8 Jan: UK Telegraph: John-Paul Ford Rojas: Global warming at a standstill, new Met Office figures show
    The Met Office has downgraded its forecast for global warming to suggest that by 2017 temperatures will have remained about the same for two decades.
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/environment/climatechange/9787662/Global-warming-at-a-standstill-new-Met-Office-figures-show.html


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    Ross

    In the current technological age wouldn’t it be more eco-friendly to simply teleconference ?

    My what big carbon feet you have grandma !


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      Maybe they can’t twist arms the same way when not face-to-face. Maybe threats have to be up close and personal, behind closed doors and all that. Not to mention jet setting makes them feel “important” and at the very least “first class”. I believe the champagne is free in first class, isn’t it? :)


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        ExWarmist

        No the champagne is not free – it’s paid for by the net value producers of the world who live within the regimes that provide the tax revenue to fund these junkets.


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    janama

    Here’s two versions of the current heat wave in Australia.

    1. Ben Cubby from the SMH

    2. Graham Lloyd of the Australian.

    The first is full of climate change and gloom and doom, typical of Ben Cubby – a climate alarmist – and is mainly from BoM’s David Jones – the second attributes it to the non performance of the Northern Monsoon to head south and bring moisture into the interior.

    Karl Braganza, the manager of climate monitoring at the Bureau of Meteorology’s National Climate Centre, says this has been the sort of weather system that typically is associated with heatwaves in the middle of summer, especially across southern Australia. But the heat has been exacerbated by the monsoonal trough that usually brings cloud and rain in the north of the continent remaining far offshore in the Timor Sea


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    Glen Michel

    Our ABC continues with its brain-washing propaganda hoping people will believe we are facing a disastrous future. The term unprecedented is used liberally by newsreaders to convey the gravitas of it all.For gods sake the bureau has upped the temperature scale for these events .Honestly, I believe these people have no real life experiences or have very short memories.


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    pat

    the CAGW scam is imploding everywhere:

    8 Jan: NYPost: Current situation: Staffers talk about first meeting with Al Jazeera
    Just call him Al Gorezeera.
    Yesterday morning, the still shell shocked staff at Current TV was called to an all hands staff meeting at its San Francisco headquarters, which was teleconferenced to their offices in LA and NYC, to meet their new bosses…
    “Of course Al didn’t show up,” said one high placed Current staffer. “He has no credibility.
    “He’s supposed to be the face of clean energy and just sold [the channel] to very big oil, the emir of Qatar! Current never even took big oil advertising—and Al Gore, that bulls***ter sells to the emir?”…
    How do they feel about Gore the savior of green energy now?
    The displeasure with Gore among the staff was thick enough to cut with a scimitar.
    “We all know now that Al Gore is nothing but a bulls***ter,” said the staffer bluntly.
    We do stories on the tax code, and he sells the network before the tax code kicked in?
    “Al was always lecturing us about green. He kept his word about green all right—as in cold, hard cash!”
    http://www.nypost.com/p/entertainment/tv/current_situation_XLE3W50v6I9Gbyqe6Z4pFP


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      mikemUK

      Re:Gore’s sale

      I read elsewhere that while Gore and his chums tried to complete the sale before the deadline, in fact they missed it by a day and therefore are liable under the new code.

      It’s a crying shame! 8-)


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    pat

    mikemUK -
    hope u r right.

    meanwhile, in the “progressive” Slate:

    8 Jan: Slate: Will Oremus: Australia Is So Hot They Had To Add a New Color to the Weather Map
    But the bureau’s forecasters believe the worst is yet to come—which is why they’ve added a new color to their official weather maps, for temperatures up to 54 degrees Celsius (129 Fahrenheit). In other words, they believe the country’s all-time high temperature of 123 degrees, set in 1960, is about to go down, and hard.
    Earlier today, the Sydney Morning Herald grabbed a screenshot of an official weather prediction map that showed a splotch of shocking purple over South Australia, the brand-new indicator for temperatures in excess of 50 Celsius (122 Fahrenheit). It appears the bureau has since eased its predictions for Monday, as the purple has receded for the time being. But the new color lives on in the temperature index to the right of the maps, reflecting a new climate reality in which a 129-degree day would no longer be off the charts…
    http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2013/01/08/australia_heat_wave_new_color_added_to_weather_maps_fire_danger_catastrophic.html


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    pat

    have omitted all CAGW alarmists’ comments:

    8 Jan: Daily Mail: ‘Global warming is NOT as bad as feared’: Met Office under fire as it claims Earth’s temperature is rising more slowly than first thought (and could even have stalled)
    Earlier forecasts predicted a much steeper rise in global temperatures
    But latest figures from Met Office show slower rise than previously warned
    Figures raise questions about the true danger posed by greenhouse gasses
    By Sam Webb and Lewis Smith
    These figures are the latest development to pour doubt on green campaigners’ claims about danger posed by greenhouse gasses.
    Dr David Whitehouse science editor of the Global Warming Policy Foundation (GWPF), which was set up by climate change skeptic Lord Lawson, was scathing about the Met Office u-turn.
    He said: ‘We are at the point where the temperature standstill is becoming the dominant feature of the post-1980 warming, and as such cannot be dismissed as being unimportant even when viewed over 30 years.
    ‘It is time that the scientific community in general and the IPCC in particular acknowledged the reality of the global temperature standstill and the very real challenge it implies for our understanding of climate change and estimates of its future effects.
    ‘It is a demonstration that the science is not settled and that there are great uncertainties in our understanding of the real world effects of the greenhouse when effect combined with anthropogenic and natural factors.”…
    But last year James Lovelock, a pioneer of the environmental movement and author of The Gaia Hypothesis, which raised questions about the dangers of global warming, unexpectedly revised his own views.
    He said: ‘The problem is we don’t know what the climate is doing. We thought we knew 20 years ago.
    ‘That led to some alarmist books – mine included – because it looked clear-cut, but it hasn’t happened.
    ‘The climate is doing its usual tricks.
    ‘There’s nothing much really happening yet.
    ‘We were supposed to be halfway toward a frying world now.’…
    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2259012/Global-warming-Met-Office-releases-revised-global-temperature-predictions-showing-planet-NOT-rapidly-heating-up.html


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    My first reaction was that the memory sticks look like Cybermen, from the BBC’s long-running Sci-Fi programme “Dr Who?”. The Cybermen

    were originally human beings, but gradually they replaced their weak mortal flesh with metal and plastic. In the process they lost their compassion, along with all other emotions.

    Not quite appropriate imagery for climate scientists. Lack of emotions is not something I ascribe to them. More a surfeit – often at the expense of other character aspects.


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      Ace

      But Beancounter, very many of these idealists, which is in essence their problem, DO totally lack human empathy. They are indeed like robots or maybe those afflicted with severe Aspergers syndrome. Indeed, many I am sure DO have Aspergers syndrome.

      I think it bears repeating how these characters are beuatifully illustrated in Paul Johnsons book “Intellectuals”. A good case it examines is that of Percy Shelley and how his idealistic goings on totally destroyedthe lives of many people who had the misfortuneof knowing him. Knowing him too late!

      But I can also base this opinion on personal observation of idealistic assholes I have known. Their heads are shoved so far up their own cuckoo land, a dark cavity lined with spectral images of future unborn generations, that they cant so much as give a shit for real people in the real world.


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      ExWarmist

      In the Doctor Who universe, the Greens would make good Daleks.

      “Exterminate, Exterminate, Exterminate…”


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    Ace

    Basic science:
    The validity of a theory is evaluated by the accuracy of its predictions.

    Basic pseudo-science:
    The psychic fails to guess correctly whats in the sealed envelope but has all manner of excuses, its too chilly, theres a sceptic in the room, the vibrations are wrong. yada, yada, yada.

    This is what Popper called an “immunisation” against disproof. Its the hall-mark of pseudo-science.

    Basic AGW discourse:
    You find your prediction is wrong and then try to explain that the theory is valid in spite of this because of this that or other excuse, “natural variability” and volcanoes being the latest. The latter of these stated in advance of the anticipated failure at prediction. No more veritable an immunisation could there be.

    So, which does AGW most resemble, science or pseudo-science?

    Its a testament to the widespread and stupifying ignorance of what science IS that they can get away with it for so long.


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    Venter

    R.Gates who’s commenting here from Colorado is neither honest nor a skeptic. He is a dedicated warmist and an apologist for the warmist crowd. He used to hang around at WUWT and be an apologist for every climate science bad practice. Now he hangs around at Climate Etc. doing the same. He falsely representes himself here as a honest skeptic.


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      ExWarmist

      Yes – I noticed the smell that lingers around his weasel words…


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      Ace

      Thanks for the info. I wont waste my time trying to communicate again with what you indicate to be a brick wall.

      At least sock puppets offer variety.


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      R. Gates

      Being an honest skeptic does not mean that you never take a stance on an issue, but only that you accept whatever truths you hold as “provisionally” true and search for any data that would refute it or cause you to modify it. Generally I’ve noticed that many who claim to be “skeptical” of AGW are not really interested in this honest skeptical process but instead are really more wrapped up in the politics of the issue and and miss out on some very interesting science and potential growth of their own understanding.


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        R. Gates,

        I’m always curious why your warmist side of the debate keep harping on about the Science, and I know I sometimes harp on this, but surely, if you guys have already accepted the Science, and you keep telling us that you know the cause, why don’t you bloody well DO something about it.

        You make the assertion that we are being Political. Take the Mote out of your own eye.

        The Politicians even agree with you, so why aren’t they doing something. They have sent Hundreds of Billions of dollars (literally) in your side’s direction to keep producing more Science, when they say unequivocally that they (the politicians) even know the cause, and they aren’t doing anything either.

        You have this fabulously huge group of people. Lobby the politicians who already agree with you to take action.

        Don’t keep saying ….. “Oh, by the way, we have some more Science for you.”

        Get all your Science people together and lobby those politicians to actually root out the cause if you’re so damned convinced.

        The fact that those politicians are actually NOT doing that is the biggest indicator that they are only paying you lip service, and your side can’t see that.

        That’s why your side is losing this debate.

        There’s so many of you now. Surely a group of that humungous size is a voice so loud it cannot be ignored.

        Tell you what.

        You guys refuse to accept any more funding until those politicians close down those offending coal fired power plants.

        The ONLY ones closing anywhere are the smaller ones aged 40+ years, not because of this CO2 scare you guys have just drummed up, but because they have reached the end of their lives.

        Take some time out from reading up the Science that already just confirms what you already know, and use that time to check just how many large scale coal fired plants have closed, and on top of that, how many huge scale new plants are opening up in China, India and the rest of the Developing World.

        NOT ONE of those large scale coal fired plants has closed. NOT ONE OF THEM, anywhere.

        On top of that, all that electrical power lost when those old plants have closed due to age is being replaced ONLY by gas fired plants, (still CO2 emitting) which are now working longer in operating hours per day than they used to.

        Go and look at the data for yourself. It’s easy enough to find. Just go to the EIA.

        And please don’t even begin to say that Wind and Solar power are taking over, because that EIA data tells exactly the opposite. That’s not modelling but actual hard, and real time data. The fact that coal fired power is being replaced, virtually in toto by gas fired power is a stark indicator that wind and solar power ARE NOT taking over. I know you harp on about the Science, so having that understanding, then that data should be easier for you to understand than the average person in the street. Go and actually look for yourself.

        The fact that those politicians are not ACTING on your Science is the biggest single marker that they think this is not for real. Otherwise they would be closing them down ‘toot sweet’. Even understanding the absolute chaos this would cause, they have the justification of YOUR Science to do that, and they can just tell the people that this is a Scientific imperative, hang the chaos, and we’ll work out what happens next after we shut them down. The Science tells us this HAS to be done.

        No, that amounts to political suicide, and those politicians know this, and that’s why all they are doing is finding a way to make money out of it by imposing a bloody great tax on those emissions, a tax that will NEVER lower those emissions.

        Go on R. Gates, you have the numbers.

        Bloody well DO something. Piss or get off the pot.

        Tony.


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          Jaymez

          Very well said! Similarly the lack of support for Kyoto and in fact the outright refusal to sign up to reduce emissions is proof most of the world leaders are not convinced. And if the scientists were truly convinced of their just cause, they would resign their comfortable government funded positions en masse, in a demonstration against the refusal of the Governments to act on the convincing scientific evidence. Instead they hang around with their snouts in the trough.


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          Ace

          Once again, Tony has the ultimate riposte to all these …characters. If they are so sure why do they spend their time arguing with those who are according to them a looney fringe without influence?

          Actually this goes to the very core of their mentality. Environmentalism is about defining identity. “Saving the planet” is not their motive, its about SEEMING to be someone preoccupied with saving the planet that counts.

          If all resistence dissapeared they would be temporarily discombobulated. Then there would inevitably emerge a more extreme position for them to adopt against new-found resistence among those who so far had been on their side.

          This pattern of behaviour is well documented in psychiatric conditions under the umbrella heading of Obsessive Compul;sive Disorder.

          If a patient manages to bully his family into observing his obsessions and rituals, such as doing everything clockwise or not playing music on odd numbered hours, he then goes on to develop more extreme symptoms and rituals. Eg, not playing music on odd numbred or every third hour.

          There really is no assuaging it. It destroys lives. And that very pattern is eminently apparent in the continual harping on with ever more revised demands of Environmentaqlists (or Islamic supremacists, or Minority Rights groups, or anti-Church groups or any number of other campaigning mentalities).


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            Ace

            To clarify my “minority rights” example, take this whole “gay marriage” furore. The gay lobby (Im not slating gays, friends included, but the so called “lobby” that plays the identity politics game with them as beans to count). This lobby isnt happy with gays being allowed to be gay. They demand gays should be allowed to imitate everything straight as well as being gay. When eventually weve all had gay marriage shoved down our throats and up our other places and nobody dare ever again question it, then theyll demand something even more non-gay.

            Social-science may be an oxymoron but Im willing to test THIS hypothesis with the following prediction: If gay marriage ceases to be controversial or an object of campaigning and opposition, gay lobby groups will start to insist that gays should be able to engage in heterosexual activity as well as thr homosexual kind and yet STILL be considered “gay”, not bi-sexual.


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      John Brookes

      I don’t think the warmist crowd need apologists. We’ve nothing to apologise for.


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        KinkyKeith

        We’ve.

        Weave : as in weave around the truth.

        We Have; no we have not grasped the science, aren’t we dumb.

        Weev ; as in Weevil which is sometimes written “We evil” which describes the hard core

        politicians and warmers who run the scam of CAGW.

        Weevil : a harmless bug that gets in the wheat and is coincidentally a CO2 based life-form .

        John I think the “We’ve” you are referring to has a lot to apolgise for.

        And don’t try to weave your way around it.

        KK


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        Ace

        If I top meself because I cannot afford to pay the energy bills that have been inflated on the strength of “your” campaigning I wouldnt be the first.

        Your remark only illustrates my previous comments about how incapable of basic human empathy Enviro-holes are.


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        llew Jones

        “I don’t think the warmist crowd need apologists.”

        Assuming you know what an apologist is the quasi religion of CAGW is in desperate need of one given that few accept and believe in the tenets of that religion. Perhaps a tent revival evangelist, using Tim Flannery’s notes, would be your best bet.

        Beyond that an apology for things like the industry shackling carbon tax that mindlessly grew out of the fervour of religionists, rather than because of any relevant valid science, would be a start.


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        connolly

        I will give you two names for an apology smart arse. Ian MacDonald and John Maitland. These warmists (part of the Albanese faction in the ALP – yes thats the “Left”) its is alleged made a fortune in coal licence corruption. When Maitland was National Secretary of CFMEU he led the union into disasterously acquiesing to the warmist dogma. He will be a major party to be investigated by ICAC in NSW regarding the issuing of a coal license which appreciated the value of his company by a factor of 800 per cent. Meanwhile working coal miners are to be thrown on the dole by his “comrades” who signed up to the carbon free economy. Apologise. Makes a decent Australian vomit.


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    pat

    this is a huge CAGW story, which the holiday season has distracted me from posting. if u check the first stories in the MSM when the hoax was revealed, it’s amazing how supportive & uncritical the entire MSM was:

    9 Jan: Australian: Andrew Main: ASIC seizes Jonathan Moylan’s phone, PC amid Whitehaven hoax probe
    The Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC) also told the 24-year-old anti-coal activist that he will be questioned over the hoax he perpetrated on Monday that temporarily wiped $340 million from the value of coal miner Whitehaven.
    Mr Moylan told ABC radio today: “ASIC turned up at the camp and I don’t know how much I’m allowed to say because there are offences for revealing details of an investigation … I’ve been asked to attend questioning and they’ve seized my phone and computer.”…
    Today Mr Moylan was unrepentant, saying: “I made the announcement that ANZ should have made”. But he acknowledged that he may face “fairly severe consequences” for the hoax.
    “There may well be consequences for me, and fairly severe consequences, time will tell if that’s the case, but my concern is what happens to society at large and what happens to the local community,” he said.
    The ASX will not cancel trades made in the wake of the hoax because the share price fall is below its 10 per cent threshold, leaving some investors out of pocket and with no chance of compensation other than through suing Mr Moylan and his environmental group Frontline Action on Coal.
    Greens leader Christine Milne and Greens Senator Lee Rhiannon have backed Mr Moylan, with Ms Milne telling Fairfax media that his hoax was “part of long and pound history of civil disobedience, potentially breaking the law, to highlight something wrong”.
    But Whitehaven chairman Mark Vaile today slammed the hoaxer as “unAustralian”, for committing a fraud that caused millions of dollars to be lost.
    “During the time trading was in place, many investors, and small investors, lost significant amounts of money,” he said.
    Mr Vaile, a former leader of the Nationals, added that it was “very sad” that senior political leaders would endorse illegal acts.
    He also revealed that a media outlet that ran the hoax press release was told by Whitehaven prior to publication that the announcement was incorrect…
    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/companies/asic-seizes-jonathan-moylans-phone-pc-amid-whitehave-hoax-probe/story-fn91v9q3-1226550074368

    8 Jan: Crikey: Andrew Crook. CRIKEY SENIOR JOURNALIST: Whitehaven stunt among best environmental hoaxes
    Anti-coal activist Jonathan Moylan’s hoax yesterday — announcing ANZ had withdrawn funding for Whitehaven Coal’s planned Moules Creek operation — got Crikey thinking about some of the best green stunts over the last few years…
    After owning up, Moylan name-checked US culture-jamming activists the Yes Men and ABC TV’s Chaser “boys” to explain his tactics…
    http://www.crikey.com.au/2013/01/08/whitehaven-stunt-among-best-environmental-hoaxes/?wpmp_switcher=mobile

    unsurprisingly, Moylan posting on Crikey in 2008, and featured in audio on ABC. no doubt we’d find more thru further searches:

    Crikey: Fighting climate change – a job for Budget 09? John Connor, CEO of the Climate Institute, writes…
    Comment: Jonathan Moylan
    Posted Monday, 19 May 2008 Good to see that the Climate Institute now believes in short-term reductions, rather than relying on “clean” coal scenarios which won’t be broadly available for at least a decade. Private money can go wherever it wants, but public money should be put as quickly as
    possible into clean renewable energy solutions which will be able to have an impact as soon as is needed (that is, yesterday). We need to remember that emissions from coal don’t just come from combustion, but from all stages of production.
    And let’s not forget the worst part of Tuesday’s budget – $20 billion to build roads, massively expand our coal export ports, etc (but it’s okay because broadband is part of the package as well).
    All eyes on Copenhagen 2009 – 560 days away and ticking.
    http://www.crikey.com.au/2008/05/19/fighting-climate-change-a-job-for-budget-09/

    find under “Related Photos”, where it has audio files, right column:

    10 Dec 2012: ABC: Audio: Protester, Jonathan Moylan
    http://www.abc.net.au/local/stories/2012/12/06/3649029.htm


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      ExWarmist

      First they will excuse the financial harm
      Second they will excuse the physical harm
      Third they will excuse the killing…

      After all they have the noble motive of saving the planet…


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      Allen Ford

      The announcement caused Whitehaven shares to fall 31 cents, or 8.8 per cent, from $3.52 to $3.21 shortly after midday.

      But the share price has retraced as news of the hoax spreads, lifting to $3.32 before trading was temporarily halted and now up half a cent from yesterday’s close at $3.525

      With all due respect, the only people who lost were those who sold, only to be replaced with buyers who gained, so no overall loss. That said, it’s no consolation to those who did the losing and in no way justifies Moylan doing what he did, but a bit of perspective, please.


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        ianl8888

        Moylan allegedly committed forgery and then identity theft, both with forethought and malice

        The MSM, especially Fairfax, published this forgery in the public marketplace, apparently without competent checking (see the stupid tweets from Cubby and the AFR website). This is where the real damage occurred, including increased fear of sovereign risk if investing in Australian business. Accountability ? From the “meeja” ?

        Green politicians from the Federal Govt (Milne and Rhiannon) have praised these events

        What exactly is your “perspective” again ?


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        Bulldust

        I see no reason why every person involved in making a loss on transactions based on that false information shouldn’t be able to get a class action versus the hoaxer and every media outlet that promoted the story. They should all be held liable.

        Surely the issue of liability is quite plain in law? I doubt there were any specific disclaimers associated with the stories that would ameliorate the situation.

        It really is no different to shouting “fire” in a crowded venue, which then causes a stampede and associated injury and/or death. If there was no fire, then the person who shouted the warning is partially liable for the ensuing carnage.


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          Andrew McRae

          In terms of deontology, both the journos and the traders should have verified information before taking action on it, and they both lowered the reputation of the company as a result.
          The hoaxer is more to blame for intentionally issuing falsehood.

          In terms of consequentialism, I think the journos are the most to blame because the consequences of errors in their judgement have far greater impact than either the hoaxer or the taders individually.

          Tough one to call.

          I think we have to get away from the fire in the theatre analogy though. A corporation is not a real person, it can’t be harmed in the same way. Plus a trader can check rumours before trading, whereas a person in a crowded venue has to leave the venue to be able to verify there is a fire.
          So That analogy doesn’t hold in my opinion.


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            AndyG55

            If they find that any of his friends made money out of this, he and friend could both be in very deep do-do !!!


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            AndyG55

            ps. ASIC now have his phone and computer, they will be checking everyone they find on either for any sign of complicity.

            All his friends are now under the ASIC microscope. I hope they are happy about that.


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            KinkyKeith

            AndyG55

            An interesting point you make about his friends.

            If they provided any info on how to damage RIOs share price it may be just more than activism to the court.

            It could be seen as something a lot more actionable.

            KK


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            AndyG55

            I hope they do find someone he has been in contact with has made a big profit.

            That becomes commercial fraud and complicity to steal. several year in the slammer.

            No trees for him to hug in there (but some of the other inmates would help him out , I guess).!!!!


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        ExWarmist

        A sudden drop will trigger stop loss commands for automated selling.

        This is financial vandalism.


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          Bulldust

          Absolutely – especially as many trades are now automated with no direct human intervention. I just read a piece that was in Mining News which stated that the affected company and ASIC are reviewing legislation to see if, and to what extent, charges will be laid. The relevant legislation is the Corporations Act which has a section(s) dealing with “misleading statements.”


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          Bulldust

          Anyone see Labor members comdemning the Greens’ support of the hoaxer?

          http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-01-09/greens-back-anti-coal-activist-after-media-hoax/4458272

          The silence from Labor is deafening.


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          • #
            Louis Hissink

            Still on annual leave I wonder?


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          • #
            connolly

            BD they are bracing themselves for the NewCoal ICAC inquiry which will open up early this year. The Anthony Albanese apparachik Ian MacDonald will be investigated along with the former National Secretary of the mining division of the CFMEU John Maitland regarding a small matter of the issuing of minimg licences to Maitland. Who has made an estimated 40 million dollars on the sharemarket from a half a million dollar “ïnvestment”. Better than pulling up horses at Randwick mate. Maitland (another acolyte of the arch warmist Albanese) makes that kid up the tree look like a rank amateur. This inquiry will run into the election period and will hammer the final nail on the whole heaving, stinking, hypocritical warmist mob. Whilst rank and file coal miners have their livelihoods placed in jeopardy by the warmists policies the warmists make a killing from mining licences. They are beneath contempt. Warmists scabs. Anyway get your Jaffas, sit back and watch the whole disgraceful saga unfold.


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      AndyG55

      So long as he gets a criminal record, and so has no chance of ever running as a member of the Greens.


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        connolly

        He has one thing going for him. ASIC couldn’t track an elephant through snow with a blood nose. I am staggered they found the kid up the tree. By the way a criminal record is no baggage in the ALP. Tanya Plibersek’s husband who is a convicted drug dealer and did time is now head of the Education Department in NSW. Could actually help the kid in a relationship with an up and coming future PM as well.


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    Roy Hogue

    Well folks, here’s the official word. US roasts to hottest year on record by landslide.AC

    This surely is the end of the world. 1 whole degree! Who could have imagined it? I tell you, we’ve got to repent before it’s too late! ;-)

    This would be comical if it wasn’t so damned serious.


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      Roy Hogue

      What I want to know is where the trolls are. Maxine, Brookes, Catamon…? Surely they ought to be all over this like fur on a cat. They ought to be gloating about it.

      Hey you warmers, you are missing a golden opportunity. :-)


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    janama

    Yup – but it’s the 9th warmest year globally.

    http://www.drroyspencer.com/


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      AndyG55

      In the last 34 years…… wow ;-)

      I wonder how it compares to the real temps in the late 1930′s ?

      Unfortunately, due to data tampering, we will probably never know for sure.


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        janama

        Exactly Andy – I went to check what was the hottest day in January at Casino Airport which has a record going back to 1908 – well it did, it has now been removed from the BoM database as has a similar long term record at Lismore!!


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          rukidding

          Interesting janama a quick look at the Casino airport station No58063 shows it opened in 1858 and closed in 2012 but only shows temperature data from 1965 and Lismore station No58037 opened in 1884 closed 2003 but only data from 1957.Where has all the data gone for the first half of the 20th century.Has it gone down the BOM bore hole.this should be looked into.


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        AndyG55

        They definitely DO NOT want people looking at the raw data from the late 1800′s, early 1900s.. or around the 1939 period. ;-)


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    Andrew McRae

    First the FOIA leaks, now a IPCC Secret Santa.
    I’m hoping in April we’ll have a Climate Easter Bunny.

    Sounds like tomes of bureaucratic fluff to wade through just to dig up some dirt.
    Warmist science papers may be exaggerations and half-truths, but at least they’re concise. :)

    And why would we go anywhere else to “read the reactions”? JN.com.au suits just fine.


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  • #

    Please correct Donna’s last name to Laframboise.


    [Done. Thank you] ED


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    ianl8888

    For those interested (and those who should be), this developing story is of great interest:

    http://bishophill.squarespace.com/blog/2013/1/7/principle-of-proportionality.html?lastPage=true&postSubmitted=true

    The test case is apparently to be heard in the Irish High Court in about a week

    The plaintiff, an Irish engineer named Pat Swords, is a remarkably sharp and persistent fellow. Fascinating so far, and exceedingly pointed. Very apt for the current and future Aus position


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    Ross Handsaker

    Regarding the supposed relationship between “climate change” and the recent high temperatures in Australia it is worth recalling that evidence of an enhanced “greenhouse” effect was supposed to be warmer nights (rather than days) and winters (rather than summers)! As an aside on record temperatures, I notice in the Commonwealth of Australia Year Book 1980 edition, the record high temperature for Adelaide was 47.6C on 12/1/1939 but this record no longer exists!


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    Only yesterday, NASA slipped this explosive information past Big Brother’s watchful censors.

    Breaking News: NASA scientists admitted yesterday that over a single solar cycle, extreme ultraviolet radiation (EUV): “the sun’s output varies not by a minuscule 0.1%, but by whopping factors of 10 or more. This can strongly affect the chemistry and thermal structure of the upper atmosphere.”

    http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2013/08jan_sunclimate/


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    Donna got an electronic nastygram.

    It’s clear that the WMO’s legal department doesn’t understand the Internet. They asked Donna to remove the in-review documents from her website. The links pointed elsewhere.

    I hope that Donna doesn’t trust the email. She could be being Gleicked. ;-)


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    clipe

    Laframboise not La Framboise please.

    [Done. Thank you] ED


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    Pete of Perth

    Bernd,

    I am going to print off 500 copies of the nastygram and send it to Sophie Schlingemann with get stuffed as the watermark.


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    Murray Gray

    “A new report from the Federal Government’s Climate Commission says the heatwave and bushfires that have affected Australia this week have been exacerbated by global warming.

    The report – Off the Charts: Extreme Australian Summer Heat – warns of more extreme bushfires and hotter, longer, bigger and more frequent heatwaves, due to climate change.

    It says the number of record heat days across Australia has doubled since 1960 and more temperature records are likely to be broken as hot conditions continue this summer.”

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-01-12/climate-commission-predicts-more-heatwaves-bushfires/4461960


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    A Friends of Science news release “Secret Santa Whistleblower Files End Climate Change Catastrophe Cult” today highlights Donna’s blog posting “The Secret Santa Leak”. Our news releases are listed here.

    The first item is today’s news release. We have issued 11 news releases since May 2012.

    This news release was picked up by the Houston Chronicle here,

    the TimesUnion here and many other locations.

    A video of Donna’s luncheon presentation at Calgary, Canada is here.


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    [...] let people know about the leak  and said kind things about Canada. In Australia, Joanne Nova told her audience about the leak and posted download [...]


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