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Who remembers that 15,000 scientists signed some climate declaration in 2017? The same Prof Ripple, and Bioscience probably hope you don’t, because two years later there is the same rehashed, but with only 11,000 signatories. So 4,000 disappeared without a trace. There are however, the same comic indefendable graphs. Call it “extreme graphing” — every line needs to be diagonal. All “pauses” are disappearing. No fallacy remains unbroken.

To stop storms we apparently need to reduce the global population, stop mining “excessive” minerals, eat more veges,  and we need to preserve biodiversity, reefs, forests and greenery at whatever it was in 1685 or whenever the sacred preindustrial year of Life On Earth is declared. You know the drill — coal and oil are demon spirits. Exorcise them now! Then rinse, repeat and …hand-wash your undies.

This is panic-science: hold the error bars, hide the adjustments and heap on the hype.

Climate crisis: 11,000 scientists warn of ‘untold suffering’

Damian Carrington, The Guardian

The world’s people face “untold suffering due to the climate crisis” unless there are major transformations to global society, according to a stark warning from more than 11,000 scientists.

“We declare clearly and unequivocally that planet Earth is facing a climate emergency,” it states. “To secure a sustainable future, we must change how we live. [This] entails major transformations in the ways our global society functions and interacts with natural ecosystems.”

There is no time to lose, the scientists say: “The climate crisis has arrived and is accelerating faster than most scientists expected. It is more severe than anticipated, threatening natural ecosystems and the fate of humanity.”

It’s not peer reviewed, but for the first time in history, The Guardian and The ABC don’t care. It‘s published in the journal BioScience. That’ll do.

Signs of catastrophe

Pack up your tea-leaves, here are the 21st century signs of the 6th mass extinction. Who knew — per capita meat production is a new signal of doom. And air transport is not an engineering feat but inherently extinct-ifying. Here’s their introduction to this graph:

 Since 1992, with the exception of stabilizing the stratospheric ozone layer, humanity has failed to make sufficient progress in generally solving these foreseen environmental challenges, and alarmingly, most of them are getting far worse (figure 1, file S1).Especially troubling is the current trajectory of potentially catastrophic climate change due to rising GHGs from burning fossil fuels (Hansen et al. 2013), deforestation (Keenan et al. 2015), and agricultural production—particularly from farming ruminants for meat consumption (Ripple et al. 2014). Moreover, we have unleashed a mass extinction event, the sixth in roughly 540 million years, wherein many current life forms could be annihilated or at least committed to extinction by the end of this century.

Fig 1: Doomsday graphs. Click to enlarge.

Note the careful expansion of scale to fit any box, regardless of meaning. All diagonal lines are are the path to salvation.

Fig 2: death and destruction “squared”. Click to enlarge if you dare.

What scientist needs error bars, raw data, or cause and effect?

See “J”: if the Y axis showed the range of pH that life on Earth existed under the line would look flat. Indeed it would look flat even if it showed the range some parts of the ocean varied each day and night.

The bigger better skeptic petition

Ten years ago 31,487 American Scientists, including 9,029 with PhD’s signed the Global Warming Petition Project warning that there is no convincing scientific evidence that man-made CO2 will cause catastrophic heating, and that agreements like the Paris Accord are harmful, and hinder science.

The double-layered hypocrisy-on-a-rocket is that skeptics have outnumbered and outranked believers in the signatory game for a decade, but the ABC and The Guardian never thought that was news worth mentioning, then or even now. And The Alliance of World Scientists’ List breaches all the same code rules which made the Petition Project supposedly unacceptable, but the same journalists who ignored the skeptics bigger, better list then soak up the believer one — no hard questions asked.

The other big difference is that the Petition Project aim was only to show there is no consensus and there should be a debate. The believer list is far more ambitious — It’s being used to claim there is a global emergency, and that we should not just spend billions, but transform our lives. Skeptics just want a debate. Believers want your way of life, your tithe, and your tummy.

The skeptics list only draws on the US pool of scientists.  The Alliance of World Scientists had to reach all around the world — they even counted one safari tour operator in Namibia. Perhaps he had a degree and forgot to mention it?

UPDATE: Ezra Levant on Rebel-News goes through the Canadian “scientists” on the list and finds people with diploma-mill science degrees from “non-accredited” institutions, others are experts on “reincarnation”, or “romance”.

As I said then:

The Petition Project was better done, done years ago, done twice, and has twice as many names on it.

Don’t miss the opportunity to pop in on the same journalists that think a list of 15,000 scientists doing a ten second internet form is newsworthy, but 30,000 checked and accredited scientists signing and mailing a paper form is not. Let them bask in their hypocrisy. Turn the screws on their cognitive dissonance. Be polite. Enjoy their struggle.

For the most part, the media actively ignored 30,000 scientists probably because it didn’t fit with their religion, their own voting preferences, or because they were afraid people they call “friends” might call them a names and stop inviting them to dinner. Cowards. (Let’s talk about being brave: Art Robinson, who organised the Petition Project, later ran for Congress, and his three youngest children all had their PhD’s simultaneously canceled, snatched or dismissed by none other than Oregon State University — the same place that this new “poll” is hosted — OSU.)

Where are the respectable, serious modelers?

The 2019 signatories are almost all me-too scientists who assume other scientists are correct, but don’t appear to check their assumptions.  Are they even aware of the failure of upper tropospheric water vapor predictions (the hot spot)?

Strangely, the world’s about to die and yet none of the top climate scientists are willing to put their name on the list. Instead, there are nearly 974 “students” and 342″candidates” for PhD work. About 20% are ecologists, some overlapping part of another 20% are biologists. There are also agri-specialists, economists, activists, policy managers, microbiologists, and zoologists.

After crowing about how unqualified skeptics were, only 156 (1%) of the 11,000 have the word “climate” in their job title or specialty. And even these climate experts mostly seem to be experts in adapting or mitigating climate change. They know things about food, forests, ecology, land use, disease, law, agriculture, policy, economics, communication and tree survival. This is not to say that they are wrong because of their qualifications (they’re wrong because of the arguments they make), but isn’t it rather odd, that the real experts in the field of climate modeling are all missing? Could it be that these 11,000 scientists are the me-too propaganda arm endorsing graphs and arguments that real modelers can’t afford to?

Of the so-called top ten climate scientists, not one signed it. No Michael Mann, no David Karoly, Phil Jones, Myhre, Gavin Schmidt, Andy Pitman,  Matthew England, or Wallace Broeker. There’s no Syukuro Manabe, Veerabhadran Ramanathan, William F. Ruddiman, John Francis Brake Mitchell, Susan Solomon, or Tom M.L. Wigley.

Could it be that these graphs are so bad, so indefensible, that the leading modelers can’t afford to be seen near them? That way, if they get asked any hard questions they can just duck it… not my petition. Questions like — which place on Earth has already been affected by man-made ocean acidification. Real NOAA scientists admit in private that they can’t name any place affected by ocean acidification.

Is there anyone on their list who has reviewed the only chapter that matters in the IPCC report?

Last word

Marc Hendrickx,
Berowra Heights, NSW

 When a few spam signatures made the Petition Project that was an excuse to debunk the whole list….

h/t Colin, Pat, Travis, T, Jones, Old Ozzie, Dave B, George, Jim Simpson.