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Now India has a Coal Crisis too: half the plants only have three days supply left

Spare a thought for the people of India having to bid against a desperate China to get enough coal.

India’s coal crisis brews as power demand surges, record global prices bite:
Times of India

CHENNAI: Indian utilities are scrambling to secure coal supplies as inventories hit critical lows after a surge in power demand from industries and sluggish imports due to record global prices…

Over half of India’s 135 coal-fired plants have fuel stocks of less than three days, government data shows, far short of federal guidelines recommending supplies of at least two weeks.

 That is a lot of coal burning:

India is the world’s second largest importer of coal despite having the fourth largest reserves.

“Domestic consumption increased by about 10% in the last two years because of work from home and air conditioning,” a senior Tamil Nadu government official told Reuters.

Remember when coal was a stranded asset?

https://www.indexmundi.com/commodities/?commodity=coal-australian&months=60

Australian coal prices

9.9 out of 10 based on 83 ratings

149 comments to Now India has a Coal Crisis too: half the plants only have three days supply left

  • #
    Deano

    Well, China started a trade war with us for having the temerity to ask where COVID-19 came from. They threatened to bring us to our knees on the basis that we’re totally dependent on their patronage. Lets sell coal to India at a fair price and show China how other nations can get along together.

    821

    • #
      Craig

      We actually do sell coal to India and more so now that China tried to kneecap Australia for asking questions about the origin of COVID and China’s response was to start a trade war with us. As it turns out, it’s all blown up in Chinas face and now they are begging Australia to give them more……..yea, na, India will have first pick thank you very much China.

      420

    • #
      yarpos

      They have probably done Australia a favour by forcing customer diversification in a number of markets. The Chinese have shown themselves to be a toxic partner, best avoided or minimised.

      610

    • #
      Ted1

      I rather doubt that China would do themselves an injury to hurt somebody else. I doubt that the politics of Wuhan are what is annoying them. Rather I would expect it’s the calling out of the Belt and Road program that is annoying them.

      Their protest may be just opportunistic. Barley and beef, and maybe wine too, suffered severe supply/price problems due to drought, while the coal stranded on ships might have been held up by the effect of COVID19 on the wider economy. So far as I know it had been paid for. The blackouts too might be caused by CV19.

      Also they were under pressure from the US over the balance of payments, which could be improved by making up Australia’s grain shortfall with US grain.

      60

  • #

    Don’t they have enough windmills and solar panels ?
    Thought that’s the future….
    /sarc
    😀

    420

    • #
      Ian

      “Don’t they have enough windmills and solar panels ?”

      Both China and India are classed as developing nations and as such are exempt from emissions reduction till 2030 so their uptake of renewables is slower than that of developed nations

      81

  • #

    It’s all within the plan.

    120

  • #
    John Hultquist

    The great characteristic of coal is that a long term supply can be stockpiled at the site of the facility.
    Why this cannot be done in India is one of the mysteries of the cosmos.
    All to be explained in vague detail, real soon.

    251

    • #
      Jojodogfacedboy

      The mysteries of burning your supplies quicker than they can be replenished while keeping a steady flow of electricity or sweltering materials needed for rails and pipelines.
      While destroying the old infrastructure that used to be a reliable way of transportation.
      Supply chain train main seems clogged and broken.
      Not easily to turn around as most companies don’t exist anymore by attrition or take over…

      160

    • #
      Graeme No.3

      Possibly there was increased demand reducing the stocks and the senior management didn’t order new supplies hoping the price would drop.

      210

    • #
      Robdel

      It sounds like mismanagement rather than a real shortage.

      80

    • #
      yarpos

      People judge India via western norms, that doesnt work. India is relatively chaotic and in some areas incompetent and corrupt. The fact they found people flying commercial jets without accreditation was a glowing example.

      210

    • #
      Ross

      Possibly because they still use a lot of man power. Whereas in countries like Australia its bulk handling. A lot of wheat is sold to India from Australia in shipping containers. In Australia we fill them by elevating them at one end and pumping the wheat in. A couple of plywood sheets are then wedged against the pile and the doors closed for transport, shoved on a truck and off to port. At the other end in India, they open the doors, slowly remove the plywood sheets then about 50 workers with shovels and bags empty the container. Coal processing in India is possibly just as primitive.

      110

    • #
      GlenM

      Maybe profiteering from Coal India . Something supply related.

      30

    • #
      Steve4192

      I assume India is in the same boat as China. They put off restocking their supplies when coal prices started to shoot up, gambling that they could catch a bargain after the peak and load up during a trough. Unfortunately for them, it never peaked. It kept going up. Now they have nearly empty stockpiles and prices are higher than ever.

      90

  • #
    Mikky

    One of the great things about working on company premises in the UK was the free heating, I wonder how many work-from-homers will change their minds when the winter fuel bills start to arrive. The WFH phenomenon may well be a significant factor in winter fuel demand.

    380

    • #
      yarpos

      Maybe an issue for the singletons but its business as usual for families and the elderly.

      130

    • #

      Not a consideration for anyone with family at home all daywho need to stay warm.
      And for many any cost increase is more than offset by the reduced commuting costs.
      Overall. Working from home is financially beneficial to most who can take advantage of it.

      80

    • #
      William

      From various reports, businesses in the UK may not be able to heat their premises either as wind is low combined with a gas shortage. Drax is looking to get back into coal. Ahh, the future of renewables for all to see!

      130

  • #
    David Maddison

    A few years ago India placed a large order for brown coal from Afdanistan but the racist Labor Regime in Victoriastan decided India shouldn’t be alllowed to have it as it wasn’t in their best interests to burn coal and that Labor knew what was best for them.

    https://www.news.com.au/finance/business/government-shelves-coal-export-plans/news-story/ba046c3ff1ef6aa4b10d4423c5f8fa9d

    FEARS of a voter backlash have forced the Victorian Government to shelve plans to export Victorian brown coal to India.

    The Age newspaper in October revealed plans for Melbourne-based company Exergen to develop a $1.5 billon scheme to mine, dry and ship 12 million tonnes of Latrobe Valley brown coal to India for use in power generation.

    But Energy Minister Peter Batchelor has now ruled out the export plan.

    SEE LINK FOR REST

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    • #
      David Maddison

      In what other country would they be so stupid as to cancel a $1.5 billion export order?

      Answer: No other country. Only the stupid country.

      270

      • #
        Ronin

        So that’s $3B he’s cost Vicdanistan.

        190

      • #
        Dennis

        The same Victoriastan that cancelled a roads contract soon after Labor formed VicGov at a compensation cost of $1.3 billion plus the costs of design and tendering lost for taxpayers.

        And coincidentally the same VicGov that announced expenditure of $1.3 billion for 4,000 ICU beds that have never bee sighted since and the Premier tried to deny that it was promised, until media ran a repeat of the media conference announcement.

        Fiscal fools.

        120

    • #
      Tilba+Tilba

      FEARS of a voter backlash have forced the Victorian Government to shelve plans to export Victorian brown coal to India.

      Was it bipartisan? Did the Liberals-Nationals support the deal going ahead? If so, then the fear of voter backlash might have been over-stated.

      01

    • #
      Deano

      Chairman Dan wouldn’t dare sell coal to anyone without checking first if it’s OK with his owner – Xi.

      40

  • #
    David Maddison

    Why can’t they just build more windmills…?

    200

  • #
    William Astley

    There is a shortage of cheap coal to burn, in India, because China produced more than a billion tons of steel this year and imported 600 million tons of coal.

    The world consumption of steel is 1.6 billion tons.

    China is the largest steel producer in the world. India 100 million tons/year is the next largest producer of steel.

    https://www.yicaiglobal.com/news/china-crude-steel-output-to-top-one-billion-tons-for-first-time-further-rise-in-2021

    China’s Steel Output to Top 1 Billion Tons This Year for First Time, Report Says
    (Yicai Global) Dec. 22 — Chinese steelmakers will have produced more than 1 billion tons of the alloy this year for the first time ever, according to a new industry report.
    Production of crude steel is expected to have climbed 5.4 percent to 1.05 billion tons in the 12 months ending Dec. 31, the China Metallurgical Industry Planning and Research Institute said in the report it published yesterday. Consumption likely jumped 9.6 percent to 981 million tons.

    https://www.worldometers.info/coal/china-coal/

    China’s Coal Consumption and Reserves, Summary Table
    Coal Reserves 149,818,259,000 Tons, 4th in the world
    Coal Production 3,708,155,408 Tons, 1st in the world
    Coal Consumption 4,319,921,826 Tons, 1st in the world
    Yearly Deficit -611,766,418 tons.

    161

    • #

      William Astley
      October 6, 2021 at 3:40 am · Reply
      There is a shortage of cheap coal to burn, in India, because China produced more than a billion tons of steel this year and imported 600 million tons of coal.

      .. odd logic there William..?
      Are you suggesting there is a world market shortage of coal ?

      30

    • #
      Kalm Keith

      Good one.

      30

    • #
      TdeF

      The big problem for China is the difference between thermal coal and metallurgical coal. It’s about impurities. The other major exporter, Indonesia, has only the lower grade thermal coal and the price for thermal has tripled but the price for metallurgical coal such as Australia’s black anthracite has quadrupled. It’s another major reason China has to import our coal.

      As I have pointed out, the Labor/Green party in Australia has banned the sale of our brown coal and banned fracking and even banned the search for more gas, recently rescinded. We are being crippled by Green bans. All based on the fantasy that humans can substantially control carbon dioxide levels, which is absolute rubbish. Dial a climate. And supported by no-hopers like Tim Flannery who has never been right and claims he is a real scientist. And the CSIRO and BOM who greatly support the idea. As do the Royal Society and the American Association of Physicists, against the protests of their members.

      There is so much political power in Climate Change that no group dares admit that it is all fantasy. It’s the only game in town for funding. Who can ignore $1,500 Billion a year?

      170

  • #
    TdeF

    Our Victorian Labour government stopped the export of $1500 million of brown coal (compressed to remove the water) after an Age newspaper campaign. The novel compression invented between Monash University and a Bacchus Marsh company would make the coal ‘blacker’ was the front page complaint. After all, brown coal is up to 66% water and who exports dirty water but no Green politician has ever bothered with facts.

    And our absolute Despot Daniel Andrews claims that Victoria needed Belt and Road Cash.

    “Mr Andrews argued his state was not endowed with the natural resources of some others and had to explore other options.”
    “We have many of our own strengths and riches, but we don’t have some of the natural deposits

    Like shutting the forest industry completely. And this.

    And he tripled the price of coal overnight to force the closure of our biggest power station Hazelwood which was running at 98% capacity when closed, ending those jobs too. His unions forced the closure of the very successful Toyota plant as well as Ford and Holden. The Union conditions were impossible. Toyota paid 3 years wages to all workers in advance just so they could get out of Vicotria.

    Plus the bans on gas exploration and fracking.

    Spotting a pattern here?

    This is the attack of the Chinese government against Western democracies aided and abetted by Daniel Andrews. Coal is the new gold and the CCP knows it. Better we impoverish ourselves and keep it in the ground for the new owners.

    Coal, timber, manufacturing. Everything has been shut slowly by Daniel Andrew’s laws and massive increases in electricity prices. Why?

    Anyway, what’s $1.5Billion in cash for old plant matter? Just the annual take of the ABC/SBS for most Australians get nothing. And they push pure disinformation from the Greens as fact.

    Meanwhile Labor run councils and Government are buying votes with pay rises and increasing council and state taxes. Victoria is being shut down as well as locked down. And the world’s most livable city is a prison. If the Wuhan engineered flu is an attack, Andrews complicity is the other half of the story.

    Last year he nearly succeeded in passing a law extending his emergency powers to his own army who could arrest and indefinitely detain any people they chose, without explanation and without limit and without appeal. Amazingly two Green amendments stopped him from employing his own Red shirts. Victoria is in a very dangerous position and Andrews amazing six months off with a mysterious broken back another sign that something is very wrong. And the ABC says nothing.

    But the real gem has been closing the State completely and under unexplained nighttime curfew, unlike every other state and every other place in the world. We know why.

    470

    • #
      TdeF

      And you see the same power grab around the world, using coal and Green communist policies as the lever. “governments will try to retain the powers they have acquired during the pandemic by raising fears over a range of other issues, including climate change.” When you read about the Greens, you are reading communist policy. Greens Leaders like marxist devotee Adam Bandt are communists who see coal and nuclear power as just ways to get real power for themselves. Daniel Andrews would be his hero.

      281

      • #
        David Maddison

        The Left are already openly talking about “climate change lockdowns”.

        https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/radical-green-overhaul-to-avoid-climate-lockdown-by-mariana-mazzucato-2020-09

        [..]

        Under a “climate lockdown,” governments would limit private-vehicle use, ban consumption of red meat, and impose extreme energy-saving measures, while fossil-fuel companies would have to stop drilling. To avoid such a scenario, we must overhaul our economic structures and do capitalism differently.1

        Many think of the climate crisis as distinct from the health and economic crises caused by the pandemic. But the three crises – and their solutions – are interconnected.

        COVID-19 is itself a consequence of environmental degradation: one recent study dubbed it “the disease of the Anthropocene.” Moreover, climate change will exacerbate the social and economic problems highlighted by the pandemic. These include governments’ diminishing capacity to address public-health crises, the private sector’s limited ability to withstand sustained economic disruption, and pervasive social inequality.

        [..]

        The climate crisis is also a public-health crisis. Global warming will cause drinking water to degrade and enable pollution-linked respiratory diseases to thrive. According to some projections, 3.5 billion people globally will live in unbearable heat by 2070.

        [..]

        SEE LINK FOR REST

        120

        • #
          TdeF

          “signs that we are approaching a tipping point on climate change, when protecting the future of civilization will require dramatic interventions”

          Tipping point is now a very old argument. As is emergency. Crisis. Urgent. Ten years, 18 months, one year for Armageddon. 1/3 of a century of panic.

          But now the communists/fascists want real political control, claiming a crisis which requires their intervention in democracy, to save it. What dictator has not created fake emergencies to seize power? It’s in Dictatorship 101, temporary emergency powers. Ask Adolph, Lenin, Adam Bandt or Daniel Andrews.

          240

      • #
        Sambar

        TdeF people generally don’t realise that Victoria also has very very large gold deposits, second only to W.A. Not exploited because, you know digging holes in rock is bad for ———_

        110

    • #

      TdeF
      October 6, 2021 at 4:41 am · …..
      And he tripled the price of coal overnight……….

      ..Errr , No !….that did not happen.
      What was increased was the ROYALTY on coal to bring it up to the same level as NSW & QLD.
      In effect, it amounted to a 5% cost increase .

      43

      • #
        Graeme No.3

        But the same royalty applied to black coal with >90% carbon and to brown coal at <60% carbon?

        30

      • #
        TdeF

        He tripled the price of coal to Hazelwood. They mined their own coal.

        120

        • #
          David Maddison

          Correct. Hazelwood owned the vast open cut coal mine the power station was built next to. The coal was essentially “free” apart from the cost of extraction until China Dan sabotaged the operation to weaken the economy for his own Marxist objectives.

          120

        • #

          TdeF
          October 6, 2021 at 8:03 am · Reply
          He tripled the price of coal to Hazelwood. They mined their own coal.

          As they say..”Read my lips”…
          He did not triple the price of coal. !
          He increased the Royalty payment from 7.5c to 22.5 c per GJ (of energy equivalent)
          With approx 25 GJ/ton , that mean tan increase of under $4.0 per tonne
          Anyone who thinks mining coal to feed a power station is “free”…should not be commenting here. !
          Mining has huge costs associated, with the cost to the coal stock pile generally accepted to be approx $30-40 per tonne.
          …and one tonne of coal can generate between 1.5 – 2.5 MWh of electricity ( depending on the power plant)…with a wholesale value of $70-$120 ..you should be able to see that the $4 Royalty increase was not as dramatic as you would want us to believe. !
          I dislike Andrews and his policies, but i also dislike distortion of the facts
          So whilst that Royalty increase was significant, it was far from. “triple the cost”

          27

          • #
            TdeF

            You could stop lecturing and learn something about business. This is a real external cash cost. The rest was sunk cost. When they paid $1.6Bn for the place, everything was in place but they still had to pay their royalties, like every miner. And they upgraded the place for another $743Million. But their outside cost was tripled and the decision to suddenly triple their cost was made when they were debating closing the power station, thanks to the huge tax on coal power hidden in your electricity bills which made coal the power of last resort. You do not do that to your biggest customer if you want their business. You do that when you want them to close.

            120

            • #

              And like every miner they have to recognise the cost of operating a mine.
              Labour, power, maintenance, equipment depreciation , etc etc, are all part of their cost accounting .
              The coal Royalty was not their only “outside cost”, and whilst the $4 /tonne increase . ($70m/ yr ) may well have been a significant topic , it would not have been a business ending factor for a $2+bn turnover operation.

              14

    • #
      Kalm Keith

      An extraordinary outline: how does he keep getting re-elected?

      The management of Victoria is a tragedy that won’t be changed until voters know the true picture, trouble is, the media and politicians will make sure that never happens.

      We live in difficult times.

      180

      • #
        Ross

        ” How does he keep getting elected?”- There’s possibly multiple reasons why he has now been elected twice. But in a sporting analogy – you can only play as well as your opponent lets you. The LNP is Victoria are basically hopeless because they don’t provide a good alternative with some traditional Liberal National party policies. They seem to be forever trying to be more green – thinking that maybe they will get Green preferences. During COVID they are virtually compliant with everything. One Liberal member last week was critical of the overt police action vs Freedom protestors. He was then disciplined by the leader – Matthew Guy. My local member (Liberal) wrote more tweets last year condemning Donald Trump than Daniel Andrews. There’s the problem.

        211

        • #
          TdeF

          He owns the press. I have been told that he hires any journalist who criticizes him. At last count that was over 60 people. He has infinite money. Ours.

          120

          • #
            Ronin

            Hires or fires ?

            40

            • #
              TdeF

              Hires. He even used public servants on public service wages as his electioneers. That is a crime. But who is going to chase him? Certainly not the invisible Liberals. Trump used Twitter only because the press were all against him. Then the idea of censoring the President was impossible until after the election.

              130

          • #
            Ross

            Yes, that as well. From day one he expanded the Premier’s dept with lots more advisors. They employ many ex journalists and even within the “press corps” they are mindful of not being too critical because (i) access to news stories may be restricted (ii)job opportunities with the govt could also be endangered. The only “journalist” who bucked the system was Peta Credlin last year who attended his pressers and asked some very uncomfortable questions. She had nothing to fear from Andrews and Labor govt with her own job at SKY. But even then there was criticism from other members of the Vic press gallery who complained that she wasn’t a real journalist. That’s also the problem the LNP have- they may have things to say but don’t get covered.

            120

            • #
              TdeF

              And if Malcolm Turnbull is any example, Green Liberals with the collective backbone of a jellyfish. Scott Morrison is tougher and ethical and Christian, something Turnbull was not expecting. And ex policeman Peter Dutton has changed the world with AUKUS. Isn’t it wonderful to have politicians who actually had a responsible job before entering parliament, unlike Andrews, Albanese and Shorten.

              So our Federal government is doing great things, but with the new Liberal Premier of NSW a Catholic father with six children, the press will hate him and he now has three by elections to fight. His chance of winning one let alone all three are likely slim, but you never know.

              The change in fortunes for coal might be very timely for Morrison who tabled a lump of coal in parliament. It will soon be our biggest export and that changes everything. It’s how you pay for nuclear submarines, but the Greens know that too.

              160

      • #
        GlenM

        One cannot emphasize enough the rôle media play in all of this. Manipulation and lies by omission in order to protect an incumbent irrespective of their destructive policies. I sometimes wish the suspension of parliaments and media for a period of a few years 8n order to get the country back on course. I’m afraid it’s the only way.

        12

    • #
      Dennis

      When I read stories about incompetent waste of taxpayer’s assets and money and consider State demands for more grants from the Federal Government I wonder where our nation is heading with State Governments controlled by Union Labor leftists.

      10

  • #
    Graham Richards

    Things are really looking up!!😂
    We need about a dozen more countries to have their electricity grids get good & wobbly, even fail for a week or two. Love it to happen in UK/Europe. Let’s have some ZERO EMISSIONS so the people know what to expect as the Green Blob attacks them.
    Scotland needs a double dose in a week or two right in the middle of their gab fest!!

    390

    • #
      TdeF

      Like Copenhagen and at the same latitude, it really is an extraordinary choice of location and time for a movement pushing unproven man made Global Warming. Mid summer in Cairo would have been better.

      290

      • #
        TdeF

        And in passing, I am not a sceptic. I have just never seen any evidence that the increase in tiny CO2 is man made and there is simple proof that it is not. Whether CO2 causing warming is also busted as the small increase has peaked and now the world temperature is plummeting a few degrees in just a few years. CO2 will follow. Coal sales will soar. And COP27 will not happen.

        241

        • #
          clarence.t

          Solar cycle 25 UV is very low.. energy penetration into oceans will be low.

          https://notrickszone.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/Arch_4.png

          130

        • #
          TdeF

          And in a debate on the weekend, most people do not seem to realise that Mussolini’s and then Hitler’s Fascists were Socialists. It’s what NAZI Means. Nationalsozialistische Deutsche Arbeiterpartei. National Socialist German Workers Party. After the war, the socialists distanced themselves from the NAZIs and right wing and NAZI were synonymous by repeating right wing NAZI extremists. More disinformation.

          180

          • #
            Ronin

            Interesting, thanks for that Tdef.

            50

          • #
            GlenM

            Right wing used to mean conservative ie. Support for monarchy and military. Most Western Imperial dynasties had an eagle looking over its right wing, some had 2-headed eagles. In modern political development the term has morphed from the social order of the despots and rule of kings versus liberalism. Socialism requires obedience to the State.

            60

          • #
            Philip

            Communism was very popular back then. German streets were full of communist activists. For the fascist, to be of socialist structure was appealing, which it needed, but they had to deviate from communism because they saw the grand flaws in it, and loathed it. Its possible the rise of fascism saved western Europe falling to Marxism in the 1930s. In fact I think it did, and with the defeat of The Third Reich the Roman Empire finally and truly died.

            10

  • #
    OriginalSteve

    So is China furiously buying coal to stockpile from its enemies, before war breaks out?

    130

    • #
      TdeF

      That would have made good sense before they banned their biggest, cheapest supplier and left $100Million of coal to rot on the docks.

      The ongoing economic war on Australia has now reached iron ore which has plummeted, but coal exports are booming as is the price. And China will have to buy Australian coal through the back door. China will never again get such a good price for imported coal. If that was planned, it was an own goal.

      190

    • #
      Ronin

      What’s the bet they are stockpiling steel as well, need it for tanks guns ships subs etc.

      70

      • #
        TdeF

        Sure but have you seen China recently? It is a first world place with many cities rivaling Sydney and Melbourne and all brand new, 40 cities over 3 million people. 60% of all steel is used in buildings. I have no idea how China manages to class itself as a third world country and carbon victim, even receiving cash for ‘carbon credits’ while being the world’s largest offender.

        100

  • #
    Lance

    More information on the coal situation in EU.

    https://oilprice.com/Energy/Coal/Coal-Makes-Comeback-In-Europe-As-Gas-Prices-Explode.html

    December is when 4 GW of nuclear is to be switched off in Germany. Either GE will keep them on, or their grid will collapse.

    210

    • #

      One would think if they are shutting down in Dec they would be well into powering down.

      111

    • #
      yarpos

      Setting aside eveything else for a moment, shutting down a plant in peak demand season seems to be a fundamentally stupid thing to set yourself up for.

      150

    • #
      Graeme No.3

      Interesting article, basically asking for an increase in the carbon tax. Since early Sept. since then, coal is by far the most profitable fossil fuel to use.

      As things stand today, the upcoming four years would see at least seven countries phasing out coal: Portugal (2021), France (2022), UK (2024), Hungary, Italy, Ireland and Greece (all 2025). As Europe has seen nine consecutive year-on-year increases in aggregate coal burns, perhaps more switching flexibility and less bans could still be the way forward. The current coal demand surge should force the European Union to reconsider its position on coal

      80

    • #
      Tilba+Tilba

      December is when 4 GW of nuclear is to be switched off in Germany.

      Why would they be planning to do that? Is there evidence for this?

      03

  • #
    • #
      Peter Fitzroy

      Now go and ask the US why they encouraged Australia to put China off side. Scotty from marketing is a natural in his ability to make a bad situation worse with his use of language and lack of diplomacy.

      119

      • #
        el+gordo

        Donald could have said more when he had the chance, but he let his deputy do the dirty work. Nevertheless, we now know that the Wuhan lab has destroyed any evidence to support the theory that gain of function was producing a WMD.

        40

      • #
        Ian George

        ‘ Scotty from marketing is a natural in his ability to make a bad situation worse with his use of language and lack of diplomacy.’
        Not the point, Peter. US has been putting pressure on Aus to stop coal and then step in to supply it.

        40

  • #
    Peter Fitzroy

    Looks a lot like capitalism to me. Run down reserves during a downturn, scramble for supply during an upswing. The elephant (Indian in this case) is that just in time delivery, that is the basis of inventory control, does not work for feedstock like coal, as you need to order months in advance. This is the problem with backward looking models like markets, they only accurately tell what has happened, not what will happen.

    217

    • #
      yarpos

      A lot of fantasist western word salad about India and JIT and nothing relevant to commodity markets.

      150

    • #
      el+gordo

      There were floods in Newcastle around March which upset things a bit and since then the price has continued to rise. Indian companies have been buying Newcastle coal from China, sitting at the wharf ready to go, but that is a short term fix.

      ‘India could look further afield for thermal coal, with cargoes from the United States, Colombia and Russia all within the realms of possibility. But none of these are quick solutions and may not end up being that much cheaper once additional freight and insurance costs are added in, not to mention the potential difficulties of using different types of coal with varying properties in power plant boilers.’

      50

    • #
      Graeme No.3

      Except China ran down supply, which wasn’t helped by a drop in Indonesian production who export similar amounts to Oz. Then there was an increase in demand, possibly because of colder weather and possibly by a rise in gas prices due to a shortage.

      The UK reduced gas storages to very small levels even though going into the cold season, but that was supposedly because they were going to make hydrogen in vast quantities as a replacement.

      60

    • #
      Ronin

      I can’t believe that OZ when faced with the CCCP ban on our coal, didn’t get on to Modi and say we have shiploads of coal going begging, are you interested,

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        el+gordo

        This is a free enterprise matter, Indian companies are already buying shiploads of stranded coal at a reasonable price.

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        David Maddison

        Because we are now officially the “stupid country”.

        And it keeps getting stupider.

        (Yes, the comparative adjective “stupider” is a real word.)

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      Raven

      This is the problem with backward looking models like markets, they only accurately tell what has happened, not what will happen.

      So, a lot like climate models, then.

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    David Maddison

    Whatever the reason for India’s coal crisis, at least they want to give the people cheap and reliable fossil fuel energy, as well as nuclear and proper hydro (as distinct from Snowy Hydro 2, but only Australia could be so stupid).

    In Africa, the fundamental problem is that the Left are denying them funding of proper fossil fuel power stations and expect them to live on random energy sources. The Left are too stupid to understand (or maybe they do, but are just evil) that random energy sources only appear to work in the West because the bulk of the electricity gets produced by proper power stations.

    In Africa where there are few or no proper power stations, random energy sources are utterly useless.

    What sort of charity is it when not only do you give someone something that is utterly useless it is actually destructive to your future development?

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      Graham Richards

      In Africa where there are few or no proper power stations…….??

      That’s quite a statement to make! 35 years years ago the ( once upon a time,former )industrial giant of Africa, Republic of South Africa, under a first world government was producing 70% of all the power on the African continent. Today they have what the government refers to as “ load shedding”, or realistically planned blackouts because thru corruption, mismanagement, lack of maintenance & ignorance they cannot keep the system running.
      The load shedding is run on a roster system so everyone has ZERO power for up to 4 hours per day. Imagine running a business with that handicap.
      It doesn’t matter what the left offer or not, Africa is going nowhere at an ever increasing pace!

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    PeterS

    This had to happen due to a silly CCP policy on pricing as much as it is about supply, combining together to exacerbate the issue. That is what happens when incompetent governments get in the way. The same happens in the West as we all know too well.

    Access to energy has become one of China’s major foreign policy considerations and recent events show why – it simply doesn’t have sufficient resources of its own to power what has become the world’s largest industrial hub.

    The headlines have been stark in recent days: regions of China have been suffering from power shortages, with local governments being forced to ration electricity due to a lack of coal and increased demand pushing prices up.

    The crisis is also a product of a power system fuelled by government subsidies that operate on a not-for-profit basis, alleviating the pressure on bill payers. This means that when commodity prices surge, they start making massive losses and so have to cut supply.

    Coal crisis reveals how energy supply has become a major problem for China

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    M Allinson

    Why doesn’t India just wise up and get with the smart energy – just switch to renewables, which harvest free energy from Nature – problem solved.

    The smart people are getting with the Green revolution in energy, solar and wind – why would India want to stick with the old, dirty, planet-killing fossil fuels?

    We are showing the world the way by closing down our coal-fired power, and India should follow us into the wonderful Green future.

    Come on India – get with the programme, cover your countryside with wind turbines, you know it makes sense.

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    • #
      Ross

      I know your are being satirical – but can you imagine how many wind turbine you would need to supply 1.3 billion Indians. (Projected to go to 1.7b, then start declining)

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      • #
        M Allinson

        And for power on calm and cloudy days and at night they would need a storage battery as big as the island of Tasmania.

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    Ross

    Time to buy more coal shares – but not Yancoal. Yancoal is now owned by the Chinese after Rio Tinto offloaded them a few years ago. ( go woke. go broke? ) Whitehaven Coal may be a good option in Australia. There’s the Qld coal mines but I am not sure who owns them and if the companies are publicly listed. Disclaimer – I am not a financial advisor, the risk is yours. 🙂

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      Broadie

      A bit late to the party Ross.

      I remember a blog joannenova.com.au leading investment into the non green energy options.

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      • #
        Ross

        I did say “more” coal shares. Do you have that link to those other non green energy options blog by Jo?

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        • #
          Broadie

          Sorry Ross,

          I was going by memory. I remember reading and I believe it was on Jo’s Blog about investing essentially as a short against the Green investments. I was all for the common sense of such an investment, though without the funds to gamble even on such a ‘dead cert’.
          I am busy buying tangibles rather than fungibles at the moment, better a tractor than dollars in the banking system or even a diesel generator than a Picasso print certified by blockchain. You can’t eat blockchain, though from history I know there will be some method of exchange to supercede pillars of salt. At the moment I am sticking with the salt. Salt rusts chain!

          Anyway goolaging David Evans and investments brought up a soup of information that though smearing in some aspects, would only help me to build respect for David (my enemy’s enemy is my friend kind of logic).

          So no I do not have a record only cursed with a memory.

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    • #
      Hanrahan

      A bit late methinks. I looked at them last week and they were high priced.

      When TSHTF winners are the first sold to meet margin calls. Gold under your mattress will fall in $ terms too, but will still be there when the smoke clears.

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  • #
    Angus Black

    Australia should supply India first. Let China wait.

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  • #
    Travis T. Jones

    Watch live: La Palma volcano eruption spewing carbon (sic)

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7O4xVgcMzc4

    Watch Greta the Green Doom Goblin say “How dare you”

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XhybAEYGnOc

    Go back to school, Greta.

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    • #
      Kalm Keith

      First Gretta, then Anastasia Occasional Cortex, then O’Biden, then StairmanDan.

      Surely the Elites are pushing these frightening public puffbags at us out of contempt.

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  • #
    David Maddison

    Did you know that various anti-scientists of the Left seriously believe you can economically produce steel by direct reduction of ore with hydrogen produced from windmills and solar rather than coke? It’s called “green steel”.

    India needs coking coal for this purpose as well.

    https://theconversation.com/green-steel-is-hailed-as-the-next-big-thing-in-australian-industry-heres-what-the-hype-is-all-about-160282

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    • #
      Ronin

      I though coal is the reducing agent used because of it’s carbon content, hydrogen has NO carbon.

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      • #
        David Maddison

        There are a multitude of reducing agents. And with coke it is carbon monoxide which is the actual reducing agent of iron oxide. Hydrogen behaves similarly to that as a reducing agent. CO reduction produces CO2 and Fe as the product, H2 reduction produces H20 and Fe.

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      • #
        Ronin

        Ahh, just looked it up, hydrogen IS a reducing agent, must have forgot that from year 9 chemistry.

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      • #
        Tel

        Bacteria can smelt Iron, it’s one of the oldest (and slowest) techniques known.

        It’s called “Bog Iron”.

        Surprised the Greens aren’t pushing that, probably they will start when the Hydrogen push fails.

        Then again, we all know this is nothing about producing any Iron, and mostly about political power and the ability to destroy an industry.

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    • #
      M Allinson

      Jonathan Swift knew of such people:

      “The first man I saw was of a meagre aspect, with sooty hands and face, his hair and beard long, ragged, and singed in several places. His clothes, shirt, and skin, were all of the same colour. He has been eight years upon a project for extracting sunbeams out of cucumbers, which were to be put in phials hermetically sealed, and let out to warm the air in raw inclement summers. He told me, he did not doubt, that, in eight years more, he should be able to supply the governor’s gardens with sunshine, at a reasonable rate: but he complained that his stock was low, and entreated me “to give him something as an encouragement to ingenuity, especially since this had been a very dear season for cucumbers.” I made him a small present, for my lord had furnished me with money on purpose, because he knew their practice of begging from all who go to see them.”

      Gulliver’s Travels, Part III, Chapter 5.

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    • #
      Graeme No.3

      The key word is economically.
      Using electrolysis the H.P. process efficiency is about 65% (62% theoretical but yield can be boosted a little by applying heat. That means 3 units of electricity to get 2 units of hydrogen, which obviously sets the cost of hydrogen up 50% of that of electricity.
      Then there is the fantasy of intermittent low pressure hydrolysis for when the wind blows which is a maximum of 38% efficient; allowing for losses, pumping etc. the cost is now 3 times that of the electricity.

      And using “green hydrogen” to smelt iron ore will give only iron as steel is an alloy with carbon (and other things).

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  • #
    Analitik

    Just to prove that the all the green chatter about China reducing emissions being the cause of their power shortages is bunkum, China has folded on its ban in importing Australian coal and is now unloading shipments to alleviate their shortage of thermal coal.

    https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/china-folds-unloads-australian-coal-despite-import-ban-amid-power-crunch

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    el+gordo

    I blame the lower middle class consumers for increased energy demands.

    “Normally the demand starts coming down in the second half of October… when (the weather) starts cooling,” R. K. Singh told the Indian Express in an interview.

    “But it’s going to be touch and go,” Singh said, calling demand for electricity “tremendous”.

    “Demand is not going to go away, it’s going to increase… We’ve added 28.2 million consumers. Most of them are lower-middle class and poor, so they are buying fans, lights, televisions sets,” he said.’ (NDTV)

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  • #
    David Maddison

    Australia should be doubling its efforts to export coal to India because we don’t need it anymore.

    Why? Because we have so many windmills and solar panels.

    (Sarcasm.)

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  • #

    Ever wondered why so many coal fired power plants are constructed at the site of the coal mine itself.

    The average large scale coal fired plant will have four Units, and each Unit is around 500MW, 660MW, and 720MW and here, that’s those now ancient Australian plants that are now three and four levels of technology below the latest technology for coal fired power.

    A typical large scale coal fired power plant will consume ….. six million tonnes of coal each year.

    That’s over the full year. Units at the plant will be offline for maintenance during the year, and as they follow the load, they will be running at lower than ‘full whack’ at times across each and every day.

    At that ‘full whack’ Units running flat out, each Unit will be burning the coal, now pulverised to the consistency of talcum powder and injected into the furnace, at the rate of, wait for it, one tonne of coal every 12 to 15 seconds.

    Stand up and place your arms directly out from your body forming a 90 degree angle. Now imagine another person your same height standing opposite you, also arms outstretched, and you are both touching fingertips. In that space between you both, fill it to the top of your head with coal. That is ONE TONNE of coal.

    Each Unit will burn that at the rate I mentioned, that one tonne every 12 to 15 seconds.

    So, on an average day, that typical plant will consume between 15,000 tonnes of coal ….. EVERY DAY.

    A typical coal train has five locomotives hauling 100 hoppers, and each hopper holds 100 tonnes, so that 100 hopper train, more than one kilometre in length, is hauling 100,000 tonnes of coal, so almost (not quite) ONE DAY’S supply for that power plant.

    That’s why the coal supply to a coal fired plant is so important.

    They consume sooooooo much coal.

    It’s also why a lot of coal fired power plants are constructed directly at the site of the coal mine itself.

    It eliminates the need for the constant rail delivery of the coal, the time consuming unloading of the hoppers from the slow moving train, or trains on that daily basis.

    The coal must be unloaded from the ship onto the train, the train travels to the power plant and unloads the coal, which is then conveyed to the holding yard, moved to the pulverisers for each Unit, and then the power generation cycle begins.

    Without the coal itself, no electrical power.

    Tony.

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  • #

    And hey, this winding back of coal fired power generation because of the lack of supply, umm, is supposed to be a good thing, isn’t it?

    So many Counties with coal fired power, all of it supposedly contributing to, well, whatever the latest term is for that.

    Surely then, you’d think that was a good start, so why the worry then.

    Have you ever thought about that?

    How easy would it be for them to just shut the plants down, and be in the ‘good books’ of, well, everyone really.

    Could it perhaps be that those who ‘really’ know, well they know that coal fired power is the Base that all other power relies on, and without that coal fired power, well, there just is NO electrical power.

    All of that other additional power ‘needs’ that huge base of humungous power to be there for ALL the power to be able to be consumed. Without that huge Base, then there is nothing.

    Tony.

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    • #
      Raving

      Now I understand. Pursuit of net-zero implies shutting down industry.

      Power generations mainly for homes and personal EVs.
      No more energy intensive industry. All materials imported

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  • #
    David Maddison

    Australia has purchased a large number of doses of the yet-to-be-approved “wonder” covid drug molnupiravir. (https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-10-05/government-buys-merck-covid-antiviral-pill-molnupiravir/100513410)

    However, there are concerns of its mutagenic potential for the cells of the host.

    In other words it might cure you of covid but then it might go on to kill you.

    https://pesquisa.bvsalud.org/global-literature-on-novel-coronavirus-2019-ncov/resource/pt/covidwho-1250916

    RNHC inhibits SARS-CoV-2 in vitro but is mutagenic in mammalian cells

    Zhou, S.; Hill, C.; Sarkar, S.; Tse, V.; Sheahan, T.; Baric, R.; Heise, M.; Swanstrom, R..

    Topics in Antiviral Medicine ; 29(1):135-136, 2021.

    Artigo em Inglês | EMBASE | ID: covidwho-1250916

    [..]

    Conclusion:rNHC showed a dose-dependent inhibition and mutagenic effect of SAR-CoV-2 in vitro. However, rNHC would be expected to be metabolized into the deoxynucleotide pool (by host RNR), resulting in DNA mutation of dividing mammalian cells. We demonstrated such mutagenic potential in a simple mammalian cell detection scheme. Molnupiravir has considerable potential as an orally bioavailable direct acting antiviral against SARS-CoV2 early in infection, especially in high risk patients. However, clinical use should be carefully considered in light of its potential mutagenic effects on the host.

    Australia, you’ve done it again.

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    • #
      Tilba+Tilba

      In other words it might cure you of covid but then it might go on to kill you.

      This is doomer-porn … there is no credible evidence for this – it’s pure speculation by those of a certain bent.

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  • #

    A typical coal train has five locomotives hauling 100 hoppers, and each hopper holds 100 tonnes, so that 100 hopper train, more than one kilometre in length, is hauling 100,000 tonnes of coal,

    Tony, I think you gained a few tonnes in you train calc !

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  • #
    Mal

    Reality always bites
    You have a demand, wind and solar panels can’t deliver, need gas or coal or just accept blackouts
    Simples

    10

    • #
      Raving

      Renewables are okay for powering homes and personal EVS with intermittent service.

      Import all maufacfured goods and building materials

      00

      • #
        Raving

        Of course people won’t have money to buy from the manufacturing countries so there will be a big savings there too

        00

  • #
    Serge Wright

    With COP26 about to start and the pressure on western governments to commit net zero suicide, one can’t help but think that the current energy crisis is a message being sent from a divine source.

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  • #
    Old Goat

    If you look at shipping costs rising importing coal is going to get very expensive .As Tony has pointed out power generation uses massive amounts of fuel and even small percentage rises in costs multiply into large increases to the end users. It is pure irony that you have to burn heaps of oil to get a supply of coal , both with shipping and land transport . When I read the comments in the MSM when they are banging on about climate change I see weapons grade gullibility.Perhaps getting hit in the hip pocket may finally encourage some rationality .

    00

    • #
      Hanrahan

      I believe China has received a load from Kazakhstan or some such, three months on the water with Egypt getting a toll from the canal.

      Newcastle might be close to capacity [I’m guessing] but Hay Pt. and Abbot Pt. have room for expansion if GBRMPA approve.

      10

  • #
    Hanrahan

    India could be getting coal from Adani had we let them.

    Do these children in adult bodies ever look back at their efforts?

    10

  • #
    Tel

    There’s two reason why you should expect the price of everything to go up:

    [1] The global supply chain is screwed, mostly because of vast numbers of stupid regulations, the most recent being firing anyone who won’t accept they have a choice over vaccination.

    [2] the Massive Money Truck has dumped a load into the economy and inflation might be a bit slow at times but it is relentless. The price of everything is going up.

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  • #
    clarence.t

    Worth a read, some of the wording is greatly mirthful 🙂

    https://wattsupwiththat.com/2021/10/05/column-european-cargo-cults-standing-on-the-shore-waiting-for-energy-cargoa-full-circle-of-colonial-irony/

    eg … about the UK’s energy woes..

    “Their boneheadedness is truly breathtaking; it’s like they are standing on the deck of the Titanic staring down at the gaping hole in the side, and declaring that what the ship needs first and foremost is a salad bar. “

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    • #
      sophocles

      And shortly after that decision is made, and before the type of salad can be decided, the ship sinks.

      20

  • #

    […] India’s coal crisis is also worsening – largely as a result of China’s last minute scramble for adequate stocks of coal and gas to survive the Winter (h/t JoNova). […]

    [Pingback – LVA]

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    SW

    “Both China and India are classed as developing nations and as such are exempt from emissions reduction till 2030 so their uptake of renewables is slower than that of developed nations”

    China as a developing country is a cynical joke. They landed a rover on Mars, have a space program and run their own space station, have indigenously built nuclear weapons, nuclear submarines, stealth warplanes, aircraft carriers and intercontinental ballistic missiles. By these criteria Australia is really frightfully underdeveloped, and we should be receiving copious international aid. And, of course, an exemption from emissions reduction to 2060.

    10