Cheap energy might save more lives than expensive “climate-changey” energy?
Researchers looked at 47 major cities in Spain, from 1980 to 2015 and checked 554,491 deaths. Even though temperatures have risen, less people are dying of heat in Spain. Apparently human ingenuity, energy and air conditioners were more than able to keep up with climate change. The population is older but less vulnerable to heat now than it was forty years ago.
Air conditioners rose from 5% of the population to 35% during the study period.
Oh the dilemma — to save lives, should we build more windmills to try to change the global climate or aim to get 100% of households access to an air conditioner?
Welcome to the dire threat of climate change:
The relative risk of death fell as temperatures rose (According to the model used). See the caption below.
From the Discussion in the paper:
The temporal evolution of heat-related mortality risks here found is, in general, consistent with those reported by previous studies in some other countries [12–15], which provide evidence for a decrease in vulnerability to climate warming despite the ageing of societies. For example, in Spain, the proportion of people aged over 64 years increased from 11.6% to 15.0% in men and from 15.9% to 19.6% in women between 1991 and 2011 [40]. The general downward trend in mortality risks has been attributed by some investigators to socioeconomic development and structural transformations, such as improvements in housing and healthcare services [12–15], or even to specific public health interventions [16–18]. The large socioeconomic advances that occurred in Spain during the last decades might have also contributed to this response, thus reducing the effect of mortality risks over time. For example, the gross domestic product (from €8,798 per capita in 1991 to €22,813 in 2009), the life expectancy at birth (from 77.08 years to 81.58), the expenditure in healthcare (from €605 per capita to €2,182) and social protection (from €1,845 per capita to €5,746), and the number of doctors (from 3,930 per million inhabitants to 4,760 per million inhabitants) have all largely increased in Spain [41]. In addition, the use of air conditioning, which has been postulated as a major contributor to the reduction in heat-related mortality in the United States [13], has also experienced a strong increase in Spanish households within the analysed period (from 5.3% to 35.5%) [42].
The researchers are not sure if this trend will continue as the world warms. But if people can afford to run their air conditioners — why not?
Caption:
In the left column panels, RR estimates correspond to the 99th temperature percentile of the summer time series for the whole study period, while in the right column graphs, they correspond to the 99th temperature percentile of the summer days of the given year (i.e., the 99th percentile of the 122 daily summer values of the year, computed separately for each year). The shaded areas represent the 95% empirical confidence interval. DLNM, distributed lag nonlinear model; RR, relative risk.
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pmed.1002617.g004
h/t GWPF
REFERENCE
Achebak H, Devolder D, Ballester J (2018) Heat-related mortality trends under recent climate warming in Spain: A 36-year observational study. PLoS Med 15(7): e1002617.
Jo, grammar squad reporting in again. With discrete quantities the modifying adjective should be “fewer” and with continuous ones it should be “less.” It’s a way too common mistake and therefore easy to make when you see it so often. So, fewer Spaniards suffered from the heat, although I’m sure they wished there was less heat.
Good report, though. Keep them coming.
220
Thanks Gary,
I was not aware of that.
40
Thanks, Gary. I was going to make the same point.
30
Why not increase access to air conditioners AND reduce global warming to avoid problems with sea level rise, agriculture and fishing?
Cows and wheat farms are unlikely to have air conditioners ever.
426
Harry, I thought that we had stopped having ‘global warming’ and that we have been having ‘climate change’ for some time now. Didn’t we find that nobody could feel, let alone get too worried about some largely meaningless fraction of a degree change in what is bogusly called an ‘average surface temperature’ on a planet that has temperature variations of 100C? Hasn’t the current mantra moved to saying, ok you wont notice the temperature has gone up but there will be more huge temperature extremes both hot and cold? So rather than you getting excited every time you hear about a new hot extreme shouldn’t you be getting equally excited about the cold extremes just to keep the math good and support the doomsday models? Should be the same with that sea level rise you worry about. I would have thought that if it rises enough too, that there will be more room for the fish and they will come closer to your door making them easier to catch. Seriously tho, why don’t you explain to us how the temperature distributions have changed so much from the past and why the models predict this. Some years ago we were promised more and more extreme cyclones and yet it had been very quiet for a long while. We were promised eternal drought and we got drought-flood-drought pretty much like it has happened forever. Have you actually noticed any changes yourself?
423
Thanks Joe, quite comprehensive and succinct reply. You have spoken for most of us who comment on Jo’s site.
Harry doesn’t seem to realise that if everyone had an air conditioner (and most already do, but not me), if power is too expensive, then they couldn’t afford to run them.
Interesting however that the Israeli’s keep their dairy herds in air conditioned buildings, so you could say that Harry is wrong on that one too.
223
Harry,
Please keep up!
This guide is a climate-specific extension of the summary article “Dairy Cooling: The Benefits and Strategies, . . .
Dairy Cooling in Humid Subtropical Climates
133
Interesting read there John H. I did find that an evaporative cooler was inadequate to the job on a 40C day here in Aus although helpful at lower temperatures; a human experiment here if you like! Our few animals always make a beeline for shade trees in hot weather; natural air conditioning.
I would be interested to know more about how fresh milk products are produced for places like Dubai. Years and years ago we always used tinned milk in tea in Egypt and Cyprus but I seem to remember that it had become possible to buy fresh milk in Cyprus by the mid 70s.
40
I found a title on the web:
Drinking Milk Products in the United Arab Emirates
32 pages, Sep 2017
US$990
I don’t want to know, if it will cost me that much.
50
I don’t think I do either, at that price!
60
We did the same in PNG in the 1970’s Annie. Tinned milk. Although there was fresh milk in some places in the highlands where it was cooler.
70
Harry, please warn if the link is to a PDF. on a phone with limited data access, it’s murder.
Thank you
41
‘Why not increase access to air conditioners …’
Don’t try to be funny it doesn’t suit you.
62
Well let’s wait and see the damage after the global mean temp has gone up by 3C instead of the current 1C. This could happen as early as mid-century and I should still be alive.
515
Harry the lukewarmers are saying the hiatus will continue until 2035, what do you make of that?
102
What do I say? You must be bored, that’s what I say.
But if you provide a credible reference to what ever it is you are going on about, I will have a look. I am about half way thru my day’s reading cycle so I have a little spare time.
311
I’m becoming a fan of Javier.
https://judithcurry.com/2018/06/28/nature-unbound-ix-21st-century-climate-change/
I would appreciate your critique.
52
Javier does not look like a real name. I don’t do gish gallops, they are a waste of time.
“Harry the lukewarmers are saying the hiatus will continue until 2035, what do you make of that?”
Are you actually going to post the reference, or are you just trying to change the subject and waste my time (and your own time for that matter)?
410
Sir, Javier maybe a made up name but it takes nothing away from the depth of his words.
‘Solar activity is expected to continue increasing after the present minimum, as the millennial cycle works its way towards a late 21st century peak. The reduction in the rate of warming might continue until ~ 2035 followed by renewed warming, and temperature stabilization at about +1.5°C above pre-industrial.
‘The pause in summer Arctic sea ice melting might also continue until ~ 2035. Renewed melting is probable afterwards, but it is unlikely that Arctic summers will become consistently ice free even by 2100.’
142
Javier is a real name Harry. Try google and look for publications by him.
122
el gordo.
You don’t have two brain cells to rub together, do you?
314
That is very impolite TO.
83
Returning to your original hypothesis.
‘…let’s wait and see the damage after the global mean temp has gone up by 3C instead of the current 1C.’
That would be similar to the Holocene Climate Optimum, I can live with that.
152
“Touche” el gordo. By the way is that a made up name?
91
Harry it would be fascinating to see what CO2 levels and SLR were at 8000 BP.
‘….a stable positive temperature trend (11,000–8000 cal year BP); a warm and stable climate with air temperature 1.0–3.5 °C above modern levels (8000–4500 cal year BP)…’
102
You’d know, Harry. You’ve been told more than once this year, with references, that Sea Level Rise is a non-issue, but you so insist on it, that you can only be perseverating. It’s a well-known medical and psychological condition that fits well with you accusing others of what you seem to suffer.
Reverting to an Ad Hominem attack, Harry, is a sure and certain admission of having lost the debate and is distinctly immature. Grow up. (That phrase has become repetitive, too.) You should consider avoiding reading The New York Times and it’s fake news in future; they’re leading you astray.
When Pacific Island coastlines are observed to be lengthening, there is significant doubt about SLR. Hisabayashi et al (Michino Graduate School of Geography, Clark University, Worcester, MA, USA) surveyed the coast lines of Tuvalu, so recently a poster-child of sinking atolls allegedly caused by Rising Sea Levels from Climate Change and discovered 13 islands had less coast line whilst 15 islands (15 is more than 13, Harry) of the island group had increased length of coastline.
Sea Level has an element of global slosh, so you need to sit on it for a few decades to determine whether or not it is really a real rise, Harry.
We await your erudite and expert analysis, Harry, with baited breath.
21
sophocles.
You didn’t even read el gordo’s reply, did you?
Yes indeed, denial is a hell of a thing.
11
but…trust NYT (behind paywall, but found a few lines that seem to be in sequence):
4 Aug 2017: NYT: How Air-Conditioning Conquered America
by Emily Badger and Alan Blinder
Air-conditioning has been remarkably good at creating demand for itself.
It enabled the sweeping postwar development of the South… In automobiles, it made the commutes between air-conditioned homes and air-conditioned offices possible. In the Southwest, its arrival facilitated new methods of rapid construction, replacing traditional building designs that once naturally withstood the region’s desert climate.
***By doing all of this, air-conditioning has contributed to the intensive energy demand that worsens climate change that, well, forces us to rely on air-conditioning, a feedback loop environmentalists fear.
And so here we are, in 2017, with temperatures racing past 100 degrees in the Pacific Northwest, the region of the country that has historically relied the least on air-conditioning. And now more people, even there, are installing the technology…
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/04/upshot/the-all-conquering-air-conditioner.html
25 Jul: Unherd: Why air-conditioning is making us hotter
by Peter Franklin
With climate change we can expect the exceptional to become the usual. If that’s the way it does go, Europe may follow America’s example and see ‘air-con as standard’ spread from south to north…
In a New York Times piece from last Summer, Emily Badger and Alan Blinder explain the multilayered effects of an under-appreciated revolution…
“Southern cities that boomed in the era of air-conditioning typically did not have the transit systems of older, Northeastern cities like New York and Boston. But even car commutes there have their own air-conditioned rationale: People are willing to cope with the traffic created by sprawl because their cars are air-conditioned.”…
The authors argue that air-con therefore creates demand for itself – “a feedback loop environmentalists fear”. Furthermore, this is no longer an issue for sunniest states alone…
However, the real growth opportunity for air-con is not in America or Europe, but in the rapidly expanding cities of the developing world. Growing prosperity combined with temperatures rising from an already high base equals an enormous new market, but also a vast source of new demand on the world’s energy resources. That, of course, means more carbon dioxide emissions, higher temperatures and therefore further demand for air-conditioning.
We’d better hope that solar power out-competes coal on price and reliability, otherwise we can expect a feedback loop from hell.
https://unherd.com/2018/07/air-conditioning-making-us-hotter/
and, as if we can forget!
July 2013: CNS News: Obama: ‘Planet Will Boil Over’ If Young Africans Are Allowed Cars, Air-Conditioning, Big Houses
By Ryan Kierman
https://www.cnsnews.com/news/article/obama-planet-will-boil-over-if-young-africans-are-allowed-cars-air-conditioning-big
51
With politicians, lawyers and political activists and vocal minorities controlling Western technology, it is a wonder anything gets done. The sheer nonsense of windmills and solar panels is devastating, the cost greater than WW2.
Electricity revolutionized the 20th century. In Australia, telephone poles became electricity poles. Wires on the poles became satellites in space in the 1970s. Valve computers from WW2 became microelectronics and the biggest single change in human history was the smart phone. Nothing like this ever existed. So what are we doing? Digging holes to lay cable and installing thousands of imported and updated 16th century windmills for power.
Our Prime Minister is spending more than the entire Snowy Mountain hydro scheme, just to pump water uphill.
Can we please have engineers back in charge? People who can both add and multiply? People who believe the role of government is not to take everyone’s money for themselves and their crazy ideas but to solve problems and do it on time and cost effectively.
What happened to Science? It is utterly entirely missing from our National Debate. Instead teachers debate social justice and gender and treaties and empowering minorities and destroying immigration restrictions.
How can a Prime Minister be head of a group as conspirational as the “Black Hand”, a covert body which openly deceived the Australian voter and is doing the exact opposite of what they promised to do. Bigger government, more regulations, more taxes, pointless energy controls and the destruction of manufacturing. They would open the borders, if they could.
There is nothing wrong with the climate, but a drought is coming and we are doing nothing, allowed to do nothing. We have never even manufactured a transistor in this dreamy place. Soon the only thing we will manufacture locally are lamingtons and Anzac biscuits. STEM is something you will find only on an imported Ecuadorian rose.
Can we please have our real Prime Minister back? He would be elected in a landslide by Australia’s deplorables. Electricity is not evil. CO2 is not pollution. Anyone who believes otherwise should try holding their breath for five minutes.
333
The Plebeian masses are too distracted and contented to notice the pot water getting warmer, it won’t be until the power goes out, the water stops flowing, their accounts are depleted, their super is taken, the market collapses, their assets stripped, their liberties are rewritten and the only help offered is from a faceless oligarchy that perpetuated this entire course of events.
They will blame everyone else but themselves as their social conditioning installed a belief that following the social state narrative made them good people, they are true believers in diversity, equality, social justice, environmentalism, anti fascism, love is love, open boarders, saying sorry, progressive activism for every cause that was presented as a dire problem in their society.
Apart from the above virtues they also condemned western values that entailed, Christianity, Legal due processes, freedom of speech, separation of powers, legal definitions of marriage, sex, criminal acts regardless of ones background, the family structure, core learning in education, a sworn oath of allegiance and love for your Nation.
The choices were clear the information was accessible the freedom to act still gifted, the errors of the past will recur from the efforts of the fearful.
142
“…they are true believers in diversity, equality, social justice, environmentalism, anti fascism, love is love, open boarders, saying sorry, progressive activism for every cause…”
Yes Yonnie, they just leave out veracity, integrity, virtue, honour and above all they are totally devoid of humility.
160
Ted, you should enjoy this post from Latty Pickering.
http://pickeringpost.com/story/-come-meet-my-mate-jonathon-/8396
30
‘…they also condemned western values …’
Not entirely, socialism with Australian characteristics would retain most Western values, but in the sphere of finance there is a clear difference.
Old capitalism is all about exploiting and plundering, whereas the new world order uplifts the world’s poverty stricken masses through BRICS.
In Australia, under the sway of the Middle Kingdom, very fast trains and Hele power stations would be a definite part of their five year plan.
In this scenario I see a strong centre right government in Australia, with Labor and Greens only a rump.
51
“Our Prime Minister is spending more than the entire Snowy Mountain hydro scheme, just to pump water uphill.”
Brings to mond the exasperated comment from a long time rural shire councellor
“A road engineer is the result of a very expensive education in running water up-hill”
30
A question.
I read in every statement, often on the front page every day, an admission that man has increased CO2, 50% since 1900. Even people who do not believe at all that CO2 produces Global Warming or that Global Warming even exists will accept this statement as true.
So the question. Have you ever seen any evidence? Has anyone actually proven to you that the increase is man made? Are you simply being asked to believe this? Is it simply self evident, like heavy things fall faster? Is it true? In fact it is demonstrably not true.
Then consider the obvious next question, if the increase is NOT man made, what can we do about it?
Over the last 30 years, we have spent tens of trillions of dollars trying to control CO2. Is there any visible impact of 350,000 windmills on the growth of CO2?
If we cannot control CO2, what is all this about? Why can’t we use airconditioners in summer and coal based electricity in winter? Why is our government trying to bring in Emissions Intensity controls and carbon credits and giving us the world’s highest prices? Or is it someone else’s fault and our politicians are blameless?
284
You should also ask ‘how accurate are those measurements’ when you consider the main recording station (the one quoted by the IPCC) is situated on a volcanic mountain that belches out CO2.
164
We have Cape Grim and the story is the same.
https://theconversation.com/southern-hemisphere-joins-north-in-breaching-carbon-dioxide-milestone-59260
70
ivan,
This is a red herring. Not only do you have Cape Grim, as el gordo points out, there are observatories all over the globe from Alaska and Greenland to the South Pole with measurements of CO2, δ13C, O2/N2, etc. Try here for starters:
http://scrippsco2.ucsd.edu/data/atmospheric_co2/sampling_stations
In addtion, if you are interested in what is happening at the surface of the oceans, I recommend that you spend some time here:
https://www.nodc.noaa.gov/ocads/oceans/time_series_moorings.html
60
“Has anyone actually proven to you that the increase is man made?”
Yes.
68
How?
112
I’d say HT was bullied into agreement with the CAGW cacodoxy and is both crestfallen and fascinated to witness the antics of entities posting here; I can’t account for the inarticulate belligerence though.
112
Link please Harry.
92
https://www.skepticalscience.com/human-co2-smaller-than-natural-emissions-intermediate.htm
Also atmospheric O2 is dropping in line with the rise in CO2.
59
Harry,
thank you so much for bringing this to our attention. That’s really scary Harry, so thanks again.
So that means it goes from 205,400 parts per million down to 205,390 parts per million.
Guess that means we’ll all be choking soon, eh! Would that be right Harry.
Tony.
(Now Harry, you naughty boy you. Surely you wouldn’t be fearm0ngering now Harry. Surely not)
182
It is an interesting question though. Without plants there would be no new oxygen. Plants evolved to turn CO2 into O2, so perhaps life started in an oxygen free world? Oxygen is very reactive so I assume it would vanish. Then as far as I know all O2 has historically come from greedy plants, notably phytoplankton.
However if CO2 goes up with the ocean temperature, more plants grow and more rainfall. The additional plants would produce more oxygen, lowering CO2. There is a feedback mechanism here. If the oceans heat more, we get more CO2, so more plants and more O2. We would end up with a steamy Jurassic jungle and giant herbivores. Plenty of oxygen, CO2 and perhaps a few dinosaurs. Again.
Then if the level fell below 0.02%, all plants and animals would slowly die. This would release CO2 which would allow the hardiest to recover. I wonder if this has ever happened in a very cold period?
102
Most O2 released into the atmosphere is from ocean plankton. (But then, they’re plants, just waterbourne.)
TdeF asked:
Yep. Remarkable things, microbes.
The atmosphere was anoxic about 4GYA. Then there was the The Great Oxygenation Event 2.4 GYA, which makes fascinating if not interesting reading. Introducing free oxygen into the atmosphere made it toxic but at the same time gave a great new source of great energy from fresh oxidation. Goodbye anoxia, hello real life!
Enjoy.
10
Hope the nitrogen will be okay. Heaven help the argon.
92
TonyfromOz.
I cannot believe you are as stupid as your comment makes you look.
211
Oh, Harry,
open mouth, change feet!
But then, Maths never was your strong point eh!
Oxygen makes up 20.54% of the Atmosphere, and some sources have it as high as 20.95%, but I’ll even go with the lower mark here, so that’s 205,400 PPM, and if as you say Oxygen is allegedly depleting by the same amount CO2 is rising, then if CO2 has risen by 10 PPM, then Oxygen has fallen by 10PPM, hence a fall from what I wrote.
Harry, you know when you did addition and subtraction in primary School. You really should have paid more attention, eh!
It’s now here for everyone to see.
Me looking st00pid. Oh, Harry look in the mirror.
Tony.
122
Thanks Harry. Interesting stuff. Seems very authoritative, certain.
It has principles which are new science, a real revelation. They are also wrong.
=================
“Land plants absorb about 450 gigatonnes of CO2 per year and the ocean absorbs about 338 gigatonnes. This keeps atmospheric CO2 levels in rough balance. Human CO2 emissions upsets the natural balance.”
“Natural balance”. What is this? So this new theory of “Natural balance” is that we are just lucky the natural balance was 0.035%? We have upset it? How was the original value set? Luck? CO2 existed before the industrial revolution.
=================
Then “About 40% of human CO2 emissions are being absorbed, mostly by vegetation and the oceans. The rest remains in the atmosphere. “
Firstly, how do they know this? Secondly, this is against any principle of chemical equilibrium. In real chemistry the ratio of gas in the air against gas in the liquid is a constant. If you put more on one side of an equilibrium, it balances up naturally. The only real question is how long this takes. The ratio is a constant, dependent incidentally on temperature and gas pressure.
=========================
If the balance is disturbed, in 14 years the ocean will absorb half of the new CO2. In 28 years, 3/4 will be gone. Nothing stays out of balance for long. There is almost nothing left from WW2, 73 years ago. About 3%.
As you know CO2 is readily absorbed in water. Lemonade, beer, soda. Heat the lemonade and CO2 comes out, quickly. Cool it and CO2 goes in. It works both ways.
This is also true for the oceans. Consider this graph. It is what you would expect.
===================================
So we are told that we increase CO2, CO2 warms the atmosphere and the atmosphere warms the oceans. However the oceans are warming and the air is not?
Consider the other explanation, the flat beer one. The oceans are warming and CO2 comes out of the oceans, as anyone would expect.
Surely that fits better Harry with what you know to be true?
The C12/C13 stuff is as sensible as Monty Python logic. If a witch floats, she must be a piece of wood and weigh the same as a duck. A thing goes down, something else goes down so they are the same thing. That is proof of nothing.
Mind you, that is the whole man made logic anyway. CO2 goes up. Temperature goes up. CO2 is heating the planet. Why not the planet is warming so CO2 goes up?
142
TdeF,
You say: “Secondly, this is against any principle of chemical equilibrium. In real chemistry the ratio of gas in the air against gas in the liquid is a constant. If you put more on one side of an equilibrium, it balances up naturally. The only real question is how long this takes. The ratio is a constant, dependent incidentally on temperature and gas pressure.”
Indeed. I mentioned the following site earlier: https://www.nodc.noaa.gov/ocads/oceans/time_series_moorings.html
If you have not looked at this dataset, I do recommend it. It is sparse in places, but it does show some interesting stuff, not least of which is that pCO2 of oceanic surface waters varies annually a lot more than it does in the atmosphere. The plots are very slow to load, so be patient!
https://pmel.noaa.gov/co2/story/GAKOA is a great example, I assume, of the impact of photosynthesis on the phytoplankton, showing an enormous drop in pCO2 at the beginning of every April. Plots for M2 and Iceland show similar characteristics. In contrast, here is an equatorial Pacific example:
https://www.pmel.noaa.gov/co2/story/TAO+0%C2%B0%2C+170%C2%B0W
Spot the El Niños in early 2010 and 2016! Also, as validation of Henry’s Law and your point about equilibrium, see the longer term equilibrium signal here, for example:
https://www.pmel.noaa.gov/co2/story/KEO
Growth rate in the surface ocean waters matches the atmospheric growth rate (or should I say that the other way around!).
81
The measurements of CO2 are made in Hawaii as far as I know. It is possible that the volcanoes there might make a difference these days, but I doubt that. The simplest explanation for CO2 rise, if true, is that the oceans are expelling it very slowly with rising temps. Humans contribute but in a MUCH smaller way.
83
TdeF, a good question.
When I first cast a sceptical eye over the AGW hypothesis, it was clear that there were two distinct parts: first, was the increasing atmospheric CO2 level coming from anthropogenic sources and, second, was the increasing atmospheric CO2 level causing “global warming”? Given the broad support for the former part of the hypothesis, as you mention, I thought it would be an easy task to convince myself as well, and then I could focus on evaluating the evidence for the latter part. However, I remain unconvinced.
The key to this is the 13C/12C ratio of the CO2, usually reported as δ13C, which is simply the ratio relative to a standard value. It can be confusing to follow, since observations that are below the standard ratio are negative δ13C numbers, but they do vary in the appropriate direction. We have good observational data on δ13C and it is decreasing over time as atmospheric CO2 increases. It is clear, therefore, that on average the incremental CO2 has a lower (more negative) δ13C content than the current atmosphere. Many people seem to think that is all the evidence we need, since emissions are estimated to have a current δ13C content of circa -28 per mil and the current atmospheric content is about -8.5 per mil. (“per mil” is like “percent” except it is the value multiplied by 1000 instead of by 100.)
The problem is that we can calculate the average δ13C of the incremental CO2 and it is -13 per mil, not -28 per mil. I think I will leave it there for now, as I would be interested to hear about possible explanations from others that may differ from the “consensus” model.
101
Jim, thanks for that. However I have never understood why anyone uses C12/C13? These are the stable isotopes 99% and 1% respectively of the Carbon group of isotopes.
The story or theory is that while chemically identical, the uptake of C12 vs C13 can vary slightly in absorption by plants This is looking for a tiny, tiny variation in a constant number. I don’t know why this theory is even needed. Worse, in Wikipedia the Suess effect story has been edited to make this the Suess effect. It isn’t. I do not know if it is an attempt to muddy the waters or a genuine development, in which case I do not know why it is important.
The absolute way to do it, without any debate needed, is to measure C14. C14 is a radioactive tracer, a one in a trillion atom, not one in a hundred. In old CO2 as in fossil fuel, it does not exist at all. None. Zero. Zilch. So instead of looking for tiny variations in a constant ratio you can be categoric. No C14 = fossil. Measuring the C14/C12 ratio gives you a very accurate measure of age. This is radio carbon dating.
C14 is also easy to detect as it is radioactive with a half life of 5400 years. So you can be absolute without any chemistry, theories about relative absorption rates and guesses as to what happened 150 million years ago with different plants.
C14 levels have been constant for the last say 20,000 years (doubled in 1965 thanks to atmospheric testing). We can check this with objects from Egyptian tombs for example.
Conversely if the 50% increase was from fossil fuel, the C14 content should have dropped 33%. Absolutely. No debate. It didn’t.
As Dr Suess determined in 1956 in San Diego, all the fossil fuel of two world wars had vanished. Less than 2% was left and that was vanishing. As C14 cannot be destroyed, it had to go somewhere and he correctly concluded that it has been exchanged for modern CO2 from the vast oceans.
My question was knowing full well that the answer is absolute. There is almost no fossil fuel CO2 in the air. The increase therefore is natural and indicates that the oceans warmed very slightly in the 20th century. That is also science fact.
The huge frustration I have is that this fact alone destroys any argument of man made CO2 levels and therefor mane made Global Warming or Climate Change, but I still read every day that we have increased CO2 by 50%.
As a silver lining of the atom bomb tests we also know more things. First that the half life for CO2 to vanish into the oceans is 14 years. Then we also know that the shape of the decay curve means the biosphere is irrelevant in the absorption of CO2. It’s all controlled by the oceans and thus wholly and solely by ocean temperature.
182
Thank you also for the quick summary
1 “δ13C and it is decreasing over time as atmospheric CO2 increases. It is clear, therefore, that on average the incremental CO2 has a lower (more negative) δ13C content than the current atmosphere.”
2 “emissions are estimated to have a current δ13C content of circa -28 per mil”
3 “current atmospheric content is about -8.5 per mil” and dropping
4. “Many people seem to think that is all the evidence we need”
This is saying that the radio dropping. The emissions are lower in C13. It can only be emissions. Therefore emissions are increasing. QED.
The problem with that logic is that the answer is presumed. Say not only in plant life but in exchange of gases with the oceans, the rate may be slightly different between heavier C13O2 and C12O2.
The lighter C12O2 would be slightly faster with at the same temperature and with the same kinetic energy, 1/2Mv2. So as CO2 came out of the oceans, the ratio of C13 to C12 would drop.
What you have described may be nothing more than the fact that the extra CO2 (which has to come from somewhere) came from the slightly warmer oceans where 98% of all free CO2 lives. I expect that the biosphere has precious little do to with C12/C13 ratios or total CO2.
Rather, as has been proven over the last century, a slightly warmer ocean (not air) means more CO2 means more plants in an expanded biosphere.
As in Occams razor, the simplest explanation is likely to be the right one. Warming the oceans causes more CO2. CO2 does not warm the oceans. It does not need taxing. It cannot be controlled.
152
Even simpler..
CO2 is going up. C13 is going down. Emission C13 levels are lower. Therefore emissions caused the increase of CO2. Plausible but this is not proof of anything. Coincidence is not causation.
Contrast the unequivocal fact that C14 levels should have gone steadily and quickly by 33% in 100 years if the increase is due to fossil fuels with no C14. C14 levels have been stable for 20,00 years. However it did not happen. That’s absolute proof. There is no old CO2 in the air.
The fallacy of proof by ‘coincidence’ was parodied beautifully in Monthy Python’s the Holy Grail. What else floats? A piece of wood. But a duck also floats on water. So if a witch weighs the same as a duck, she’s made of wood and therefore a witch.
112
The general direction of change is of course not proof of anything. That is precisely my point.
The reason that I focus on 13C/12C is the very fact that these are stable isotopes and can be evaluated directly based on current observations without reference to bomb testing or radioactive decay. I am not suggesting that 14C cannot provide useful information, far from it, but it is just a matter of choice in establishing certain “facts” that must be honoured by any explanatory model. Any model must explain all of the observed facts and I remain very sceptical that the known δ13C behaviour has been satisfactoiriy explained by any model.
102
“I remain very sceptical that the known δ13C behaviour has been satisfactoiriy explained by any model.”
I agree.
This is a deliberate distraction from the simple science of C14 and my point about the corruption of the discovery of the “Suess” effect. A clear cut absolute proof has been buried in a modern meandering story about another isotope and relative absorption rates in plant matter. Very suspect.
Radioactive decay is unstoppable, utterly predictable and cannot be misinterpreted. As accurate as a stopwatch. However with talking about decay times, old fossil fuel does not have any C14 at all. Modern CO2 should be only 66% C14. It has 100%.
The bomb doubling of C14 in 1965 not only confirmed everything Dr. Suess taught, it gave us lots of absolute data we could have obtained no other way.
Consider that in 1955 the general belief was that the half life for absorption of CO2 into the ocean was 5 years, not 14. Even in this debate the Bern diagram of sources and sinks of CO2 showed the major areas being the biosphere. Basically the bottom layers of the oceans are discounted as irrelevant to CO2 based on the circulation times of deep ocean currents, treating CO2 as a liquid. This is not science, it is fantasy.
Worse, the IPCC legally uses a half life of 80 years as an absolute figure to measure the residence time of all ‘green house’ gases and on this figure you are taxed, say on refrigerants. Everything is scaled against CO2. They cannot afford to recognize the half life is only 14 years. This is where taxation trumps truth.
So for the man made CO2 driven Global Warming theory to work, you must not have rapid equilibrium at work setting CO2 levels. The whole story of accumulating ‘pollution’ would be impossible. The story had to be killed. So Dr. Suess’ story has been befuddled and abandoned. He would be horrified.
There is no fossil fuel CO2 in the air. We have no impact. Secondly, CO2 levels are set continually and naturally by Henry’s law and equilibrium. All the windmills in the world cannot change that. We also know that to be true but the CO2 industry is the world’s biggest and refuses to stop.
132
If 98% of Earths CO2 is stored in the oceans and heat is the driver to release it to the atmosphere then according to the warming hypothesis earth should have burnt up its atmosphere ages ago leaving a moonscape, this would be due to the sun of course but it hasn’t because of that pesky little thing you rightly call equilibrium.
124
Thanks for the inputs. Here’s what NOAA has to say:
The relative proportion of 13C in our atmosphere is steadily decreasing over time. Before the industrial revolution, δ13C of our atmosphere was approximately -6.5‰; now the value is around -8‰. Recall that plants have less 13C relative to the atmosphere (and therefore have a more negative δ13C value of around -25‰). Most fossil fuels, like oil and coal, which are ancient plant and animal material, have the same δ13C isotopic fingerprint as other plants. The annual trend–the overall decrease in atmospheric δ13C–is explained by the addition of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere that must come from the terrestrial biosphere and/or fossil fuels. In fact, we know from Δ14C measurements, inventories, and other sources, that this decrease is from fossil fuel emissions, and is an example of the Suess Effect.
Any other references?
70
‘They cannot afford to recognize the half life is only 14 years.’
I have it on good authority that the Coalition ginger group knows nothing of this.
92
Yonnistone, temperature and air pressure are the two variables in Henry’s law. Heat the ocean and CO2 comes out. Cool it and CO2 goes in. So CO2 comes out in the tropics and goes back in the polar regions. All all other latitudes it both comes out and goes in at all times, due to wind and wave action. It is an equilibrium process of continual exchange. The same with oxygen. Slower molecules are absorbed and faster ones escape.
However nothing leaves the earth because of gravity and the required escape velocity. Only motonic Helium can escape, never to return. I had always wondered where we found Helium which I had read is only in the US. However recently realised it is produced all the time by radioactive decay as alpha radiation and trapped in the earth’s crust, in caves.
102
Yonniestone.
That is a load of nonsense, you are just making things up.
49
“Yonniestone.
That is a load of nonsense, you are just making things up.”
“That is a load of nonsense, you are just making things up.” Harry you obviously didn’t even do high school physics. Or if you did you didn’t understand a damn thing.
123
Robber,
The problem lies in this statement: “The annual trend–the overall decrease in atmospheric δ13C–is explained by the addition of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere that must come from the terrestrial biosphere and/or fossil fuels.”
The δ13C value is dropping and the only sources NOAA can think of which would cause a decrease are the terrestrial biosphere (δ13C of around -26 per mil) and fossil fuels (δ13C of around -28 per mil). There are two problems with this. First, as I have pointed out already, the decline in atmospheric δ13C reflects an average δ13C content of the incremental CO2 of -13 per mil, nowhere close to either of the two NOAA sources. Second, they ignore the possibility of a mixture of sources (seemingly forgetting the oceanic biosphere as well).
62
El Gordo, this was one of two things I said to Tony Abbott three weeks ago. I did not explicitly mention the half life of CO2 in the atmosphere but did mention Dr Suess’ discovery that even after two world wars, in 1956 there was no fossil fuel CO2 in the air. That’s half way through the 20th century.
113
Erudite again Tdef but busy barrowing concrete to reply with substance, I can verify the effects of gravity though that correlates with age.
51
Jim, thank you for your information. I did not think it proved or disproved man made CO2 increase. It simply alleges based on coincidence. If I understand you, even this is not necessarily true.
Then I am really annoyed at the pirating of the Wikipedia entry on the simple Suess effect by a set of new theories about C12/C13 which have nothing to do with Dr. Suess’ discovery, the basis of radio carbon dating. It shows how people can edit new history into Wikipedia and it becomes fact. Faux history now. Until proven otherwise, the Suess effect was C14/C12, nothing more.
I have read articles arguing this new direction of C12 and C13 ratios and especially in long dissertations on plants and differential absorption. It is a tricky business. How this can be used to prove certainty is beyond me. As you say, even the sign is often wrong.
The nonsense problem I have is that observing something and knowing why it is so have to be connected by proof, not conjecture. Most of what I read about C12/C13 is pure conjecture. Sure you can measure C12/C13 accurately. Explanations and proof are another matter and a shaky theory like differential plant uptake is the most far fetched. There are complex arguments for discrimination in both directions. The ratio could go up or down, as you have commented.
Then if two things simply go down, they are not necessarily related. For example I pointed out why you would expect C13 to be lower in ocean released CO2, so NOAA should have an alternative explanation when they say there is none. To jump to the conclusion that it is caused and caused solely by fossil fuels is without proof and conjecture and frankly, unlikely.
40
Tdef,
What is interesting, the 14 year half life is supposed to reflect that half of the entire atmosphere is turned over every 14 years. This implies that 3.5% gets turned over each year, 3.5% is greater than the human contribution.
The annual cycle shows that in that turnover 1/2 of the human CO2 is sunk over the span of a year.
10
As for the profound nonsense about C13 as pointed out by both Jim Ross and Robber, it is learned obfuscation by NOAA, an attempt to confuse people with erudite waffle. Real science was crystal clear in 1956. Nothing has changed.
123
So, I point out a further reason to dispute the “consensus” view that all atmospheric CO2 growth is anthropogenic and TdeF suddenly finds this fact, which actually supports his/her view, to be “profound nonsense”. So much for science.
31
TdeF,
Sorry if I misunderstood you. What exactly is the “profound nonsense”?
30
Jim, please see above.
30
“The general direction of change is of course not proof of anything. That is precisely my point.”
Totally agree.
Even if the direction is right, the chance of that is the flip of a coin, 50/50, the absolute minimum correlation possible.
I think I am agreeing furiously that the C12/C13 stuff is profound nonsense. I am further upset that this is pushed as new and profound science. It is also quoted by Harry as his proof.
52
I think we diverge somewhat on the bit about “profound nonsense”. I find the observations/measurements of δ13C to be “profoundly” important, not least of which is the strong evidence that the δ13C of all of the incremental CO2 since 1750 has been in that same ratio of -13 per mil (with short-term variations that appear to correlate well with ENSO). The observations also provide evidence that the source of the incremental CO2 is global in nature, rather than primarily sourced in the NH. I would not go so far as to say that this proves that the CO2 growth is not anthropogenic, but it does, in my view, cast serious doubts on the current “consensus” model. You are right that the complexities over isotopic discrimination are a concern, and in my view this concern is (or should be) partly due to the opportunity such “complexities” provide to allow the model to be tweaked to fit the observations. A paper by Ralph Keeling et al last year demonstrated that very point when they found that their existing model could not be made to match the δ13C observations unless they introduced a new variable. Thus they have introduced another time-variant parameter in order to match an observed parameter which does not change with time! Now that is heading towards “profound nonsense”!
BTW, I have a comment awaiting moderation (too many links?) about your Henry’s Law response to Harry Twinottter.
51
The C12/C13 debate looks to be a red herring. Maybe someone somewhere confused it with C14. C14 is made in the atmosphere at a more or less continuous rate, at least according to this by cosmic ray bombardment. The atmospheric atomic testing produced a “spike” in C14, which should have mostly disappeared by now (the spike, not the C14).
C14 is good age marker with a half life of 5400 years.
11
No red herring or confusion … two parallel discussions: one about 13C and the other about 14C. On the former, here is a quote from the Ralph Keeling et al paper mentioned above:
“Using updated records, we show that no plausible combination of sources and sinks of CO2 from fossil fuel, land, and oceans can explain the observed 13C-Suess effect unless an increase has occurred in the 13C/12C isotopic discrimination of land photosynthesis.”
Full paper available here:
http://www.pnas.org/content/114/39/10361
10
The problem with science is sometimes you lose perspective and this is a perfect example.
Alarmists believe that warming will have such horrible impacts such as deaths due to heat yet they miss the obvious solutions. Identify the problem and solve the problem efficiently.
Problem: During heat waves, vulnerable people can die.
Solution A: Give them air conditioning and cheap energy to run them. Results are immediate.
Solution B: Reduce CO2 emission to try to lower the frequency of heat waves. Results may be detectable in 2100
163
Are lives saved from heat more important than lives saved from cold?
Mankind evolved to handle the maximum heat the Sun could deliver and it wasn’t until fire and clothes were invented that even just the survival during mid latitude winters became possible. The easiest way for someone vulnerable to heat to survive in heat is to get in the shade and drink water. If you don’t have either, the level of vulnerability to heat doesn’t matter very much, except for how long it will take you to die.
123
Except for the cows… and fish… and wheat… Also giving everyone air conditions powered by burning fossil fuels will make the global warming problem worse, not to mention acidifying the oceans.
617
Yes lets not mention ocean acidification, its only hype.
The burning of fossil fuels does not warm the atmosphere, the plateau in temperatures for 19 years is a good indication that the models have failed to replicate observation.
134
Harry, name an ocean which is actually acid or is ‘acidification’ semantics? Adding acid to an alkali make it more neutral, less alkali, not an acid.
98% of all CO2 is in the oceans already and everyone agrees with that figure.
You can make acid rain, even the surface of some rivers with sulphuric or nitric from diesel exhausts, but CO2 is a very weak acid and no match for the vast amounts of carbonate in shells, coral, limestone and the white cliffs of Dover. The oceans are all alkali. The alleged threat is a word game, imaginary, not real.
143
“Harry, name an ocean which is actually acid or is ‘acidification’ semantics?” Still waiting for an answer Harry.
142
Well, there’s a Lake Placid … if that’s any help!
10
Harry,
you can rest easy on one concern: the Sun will have “gone nova” before the oceans ever become acidic. They are alkaline and the alkalinity fluctuates slightly (daily, at any given spot) between constant and tight limits because the oceans are a very strong buffer solution.
“Ocean Acidification” is a meaningless propaganda term intended to scare the gullible, such as yourself.
11
You are a fruitcake.
20
I don’t think electricity and air conditioning are the biggest factors. I’m pretty sure its the lack of cold. The modern conveniences enabled by fossil fuels, including electricity, are important, but don’t discriminate against saving lives when its cold, in fact, far more lives are saved by fossil fuels when its cold.
142
In the period 2010 to 2017 electricity prices in Spain increased by 26% .(https://www.statista.com/statistics/418085/electricity-prices-for-households-in-spain/)
In 2017 electricity generation was from
Nuclear 22.6%; Wind 19.2%; Coal 17.4%; Combined cycle natural gas 13.6%; Cogeneration (burning fossil fuels) 11.5%; Hydro 7.3%: Solar 5.4%
(https://renewablesnow.com/news/renewables-produce-337-of-spains-power-in-2017-596136/)
I wonder how the Spanish have managed to develop a mix of technologies without massive increases in electricity prices. As is apparent wind supplied more electricity than did coal and in December 2017 supplied more (24.3% electricity than either nuclear (21.8%)
or coal (19%)
58
The retail price in Spain during 2017 was the fourth highest in the EU below Germany, Italy and Belgium at around 0.35 Australian dollars per kWh.
Up until 2014 the prices were regulated and renewables were massively subsidised financed by government debt currently at 100% of annual GDP up from 40% in 2005.
According to Bloomberg Spain rates number 5 on their Misery Index behind Venezuela, South Africa, Argentina and Greece.
111
It is a surprise then that Spain has managed to increase the take up of air con and cut the numbers of deaths from heat especially as your comment indicates it is in such dire straits. I did go to the link you supplied but could find no mention of Spain despite searching for “Spain”. i also clicked on the link the Bloombergs Misery Index in the article but it is paywalled. I then Googled Bloombergs Misery Index and found Spain ranked 8th in the table for 2017 (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-02-14/most-miserable-economies-of-2018-stay-haunted-by-inflation-beast). I was unable to find a table in which Spain ranked 5th
32
Spain is shown as number 5 on the page I linked to on the table “The Most Miserable” dated 2017 but I notice Venezuela is not included.
Whatever, it is clear there is an inverse correlation between a nation’s CO2 emissions per cap and economic wellbeing and it works both ways, as an economy improves the emissions per cap go up as in China and as the emissions per cap are forced down by recession or deliberate government policy as in Spain the economy tanks.
Sadly that is a lesson Australians are about to learn I fear.
40
I would be grateful if you would give the link to which you refer as I could find no table showing Spain rth on the Bloomberg Misery Index
10
An inverse correlation: as CO2 emissions per cap go down economic misery goes up and vice versa.
20
some info.
21 Aug 2017: AbacoAdvisers: The rise and fall of solar energy in Spain
Early in the decade Spain encouraged the use of solar power and the development generally of renewable energy with subsidies aimed at encouraging investment. Renewable energy doubled between 2006 and 2012 and subsidies reached €8.1 billion by 2012.
However, this level of support was unsustainable and those who had invested suddenly found enthusiasm for their chosen form of energy draining away…
In 2015 the Spanish government approved a new national law on self-consumption of energy that taxes solar installations, often called the sun tax. This includes self-consumption installations that just produce for their own use and don’t feed into the grid. Solar energy consumers must now pay the same grid fees as all electricity consumers in Spain pay.
Those with PV (Photovoltaic) systems over 10kW must pay:
•for the whole power capacity installed – including that contracted to the electricity company and the power from the PV installation
•a tax on the electricity they generate and self-consume…
Owners of PV installations are required to register with the government and connect to the national grid or face very large fines. The fines are ridiculously exorbitant…
At the heart of the failure of the government to support solar energy production are major issues to do with the Spanish electricity market. The country’s electricity system is in deficit with its running costs exceeding the sale of power…
In 2015, El País in English estimated that the average electricity bill ran at around €80 a month per person, claimed to be the fourth highest in Europe. Between 2006 and 2012, it’s estimated that Spain’s electricity bills increased by 60%, leaving many households unable to pay their bills and having their 8supply cut off or making the choice between heating or food…
In January 2017 ***a law proposal was registered in congress that would mean the beginning of sun tax removal. The proposal includes the right to solar energy without charge and indicates that several consumers should be able to pool their power as part of a self-consumption facility to help tackle poverty…
http://www.abacoadvisers.com/spain-explained/life-in-spain/news/rise-and-fall-solar-energy-in-spain
***haven’t checked for updates.
60
5 Jul: EurActiv: People leading the renewable revolution
By Emily Rochon, ClientEarth
With its updated Renewable Energy Directive, the EU has sent a clear signal that citizens and communities are key to the energy transition’s success. The next step is to empower these groups to access the market and use their untapped potential, writes Emily Rochon…
For the first time, Europeans, local authorities, small businesses and cooperatives will have the right under European law to produce, consume, store and sell renewable energy, without being subject to punitive taxes or excessive red tape.
This is hugely positive…
As a result, regressive and harmful policies like Spain’s “sun tax” are now illegal and must be repealed. Spain’s sun tax hampers small-scale renewable energy production with steep fees and administrative hurdles and has decimated its small-scale solar market.
Banning “disproportionate procedures” should also eliminate excessive bureaucracy and motivate governments to streamline processes for people who produce and consume renewable energy. Such is the case in Romania, where it takes individuals 400 days to set up a legal entity and obtain the necessary permits before they can become a prosumer…READ ALL
https://www.euractiv.com/section/electricity/opinion/people-leading-the-renewable-revolution/
16 Jul: EnergyReporters: Spain govt struggles with coal miners
Spain’s minority Socialist government is struggling to balance its green ambitions with its support base in the coal-mining sector.
The number of miners has plummeted from 13,000 in 1994 to little more than 2,000 today but Asturias, Aragón and Castilla y León have vocal coal-mining communities.
The coal exit advocated by Environment Minister Teresa Ribera could undermine support for Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez’s government in next year’s elections…
Ribera has announced that the government will scrap the contentious sun tax, which was introduced by the previous government in 2015 and imposed on all self-consumption photovoltaic systems of more than 10 kilowatts.
Citizens who install solar panels and produce excess energy are also prohibited from selling that electricity to the grid. As a result, sun-rich Spain saw the potential growth of its solar blocked by the government.
And by the end of 2018, 26 mines are due to be shut down.
“The party that changes energy policy in this region is implicitly changing industrial policy and heading toward a disaster and a loss of voters’ confidence,” said José Luis Alperi, who heads the Asturian mining union Soma…
Asturias is a Socialist stronghold and Soma estimated that each coal miner supported 3.5 related jobs.
The government faces a balancing act amid pressure from Brussels.
If 26 uncompetitive mines have not been shut down by the end of the year, funding received under a €2.1-billion EU-approved fund to ease their closure will have to be returned.
Power stations burning coal, biomass or peat have until June 2020 to comply with EU revised Industrial Emissions Directive, which mandates stricter pollution limits…READ ON
https://www.energy-reporters.com/production/spain-govt-struggles-with-coal-miners/
40
That’s true, but I always prefer to check, according to the UAH satellite data the lower troposphere temperature trend over Spain since 1979 is positive by about 0.1C per decade or just under half of one degree C, not forgetting the record started at a colder period when a coming ice age was all the rage.
Urban Heat Island effect may also be a factor.
73
I keep wondering how my maternal grandfather lived to be 92 without the benefit of air conditioning. What is it that makes some of us more vulnerable to the heat? Do some never quite drink enough water? Do they not stay indoors out of the sun? What is it?
My grandfather worked at his print shop until he was 90. He had to do a certain amount of fairly hard labor, setting type by hand, putting it in the press and getting it aligned correctly, packaging up the printed result for the customer, tearing it all down again at the end of the run. And everything he lifted was fairly heavy compared to what someone running an equivalent print shop today would encounter. I remember him working when I was a kid and he moved fast all day long. Time was money just as it is today. And he did it in spite of the temperature.
That big old cast iron printing press with its huge flywheel fascinated young Roy Hogue no end but he wouldn’t let me anywhere near it while it was running. One of his sons became a linotype operator, typing in the text on a keyboard and at that point the exertion to put something into print changed dramatically, he sat down all day and the most he exerted himself was to press what amounted to typewriter keys. But they both had similar lifespans. Hot or cold, rain or sunshine, they just went through it.
And now the computer keyboard requires even less exertion than those old typewriters…. I keep telling myself that I could do without the A/C, that it’s just a nice convenience and I could get along with enough water, shade and less exertion. But unlike my grandfather and my uncle, my body tells me otherwise.
121
I’m thankful for electricity and air conditioning. And now California shows evidence of wanting to take that away or severely restrict it.
Go figure. 🙁
131
I love the red thumbs. Keep them coming. I have a large collection of them and I’ll happily add yours to it.
I do wish I could know what you disapprove of in some of these comments though, including mine. But all you do is strike by stealth. Funny how complete anonymity brings out the worst in people. And that’s why I always post under my real name. It makes me responsible for what I say. Can any of these red thumbs say the same?
This will get ignored and disapproved of too. But it’s the truth nonetheless.
31
Is the climate in Spain really getting hotter, or is it just the temperature record that is being tampered with to make it look so, or is it just the UHI of a rapidly urbanising Nation that is being measured. As a regular visitor to all of the Iberian peninsula since 1964, I can say that I can see no significant climatic changes there, but can certainly see wider use of air-conditioning that reduces the effect of the normal heat. Climate Change Luddites oppose the use of all forms of useful energy for mankind and wish to halt the continual improvement of life that we have seen over the 20th and 21st Centuries.
132
I read somewhere some years ago (and haven’t bothered to look for it) that the hours of sunshine in Spain had increased since the early 1950s. That means the hours of cloudy skies decreased. So average temperature rose slightly.
This is one paper I found after a very cursory literature search.
“The rain in Spain has gone again and the sun shines mainly on the plain.”
50
If ‘n yer can’t believe the musicales, what can yr believe? Yikes!
40
According to good authority, the rain in Spain stays mainly on the plain. Why would it go elsewhere?
Oh, wait a minute. I know why. It’s the weather and has permission to do as it pleases, unlike the climate which needs approval of 97% of scientists to change.
97% of unspecified, unknowable scientists I might add. They act like door to door salesmen, only wanting to sell, sell, sell but never willing to answer questions, questions, questions.
30
MSM had a field day with this:
26 Jul: Guardian: Friday could be Britain’s hottest day on record, forecasters warn
by Kevin Rawlinson, Mattha Busby and Matthew Taylor
The Met Office predicted temperatures in the south-east of England as high as 37C on Friday – in places potentially even surpassing the previous all-time high of 38.5C – and only a couple of degrees cooler on Thursday…
“The heatwave conditions will continue across much of England, with temperatures into the mid to high 30s Celsius in many places from the Midlands eastwards on Thursday and Friday and it’s possible that we could break the all-time UK record of 38.5C if conditions all come together,” said the Met Office’s chief meteorologist, Paul Gundersen…
The highest temperature on record in the UK is 38.5C, which was observed at Faversham in August 2003. This year’s hottest day so far was Monday, when Santon Downham in Suffolk saw temperatures of 33.3C – a little more than a degree less than 2017’s highest…
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/jul/25/thunderstorms-and-flash-floods-forecast-for-some-areas-of-uk
but only DM, so far, seems interested to report this!
28 Jul: Daily Mail: Heavy thunderstorms mark the end of UK heatwave
By Press Association
The torrential rain came with alerts the storms could cause danger to life, sudden flooding and power cuts.
Thursday saw the highest temperature recorded in the UK since 2015, with the mercury in Faversham hitting 35.3C (95.5F).
While forecasts earlier in the week suggested Friday could see the record for the hottest July day broken, the hottest it got was 34.7C at Tibenham Airfield in Norfolk…
RECORD-BREAKING UK TEMPERATURES (MET OFFICE GRAPHIC)…
Elsewhere, authorities said the heatwave was causing ***“winter conditions” in parts of the NHS, while many nurses were said to be dizzy and exhausted
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/wires/pa/article-6001221/Heavy-thunderstorms-mark-end-UK-heatwave.html
40
There was an unprecedented European heatwave in 1540, accompanied by a ‘megadrought’ which lasted for a year.
This must have something to do with the jetstream and winds off the Sahara, just like now.
80
Almost unprecedented?
20
For the traveller, weary from heat,
And the trudge through some hot Spanish street,
Cool water with ice,
For a while might suffice,
But the air con. is so hard to beat.
120
Good one Ruairi 🙂
51
BBC whips up new scary stories to replace the heat:
27 Jul: BBC: UK heatwave: Storms sweep in as temperatures cool
Heavy thunderstorms are sweeping across the UK, leading to travel problems in parts of the country.
Rail passengers on the East Coast mainline faced major disruption after lightning strikes damaged signalling.
Temperatures have cooled compared with recent days after downpours, hail and strong winds hit areas of the UK.
Storms are expected to continue overnight, with a yellow weather warning in place for the east of England and Scotland…
Forecasters had predicted the UK’s all-time record of 38.5C could be topped on what some people were calling “Furnace Friday” – but those estimates were toned down following overnight storms.
The Met Office said 34.7C was recorded in Tibenham, Norfolk, on Friday but the early development of thunderstorms had suppressed temperatures and kept them below Thursday’s high of 35.3C…
There were also delays of over two hours for Eurotunnel passengers in Kent, after issues with air conditioning in carriages…
Eurotunnel said it had taken an “unprecedented decision” to cancel thousands of day trip tickets for Friday to ease the long queues.
Gatwick Airport said nearby thunderstorms had led to minor delays to some flights…
Singer Sir Tom Jones was forced to cancel a concert at York Racecourse on Friday evening after thunder and lightning prevented him from flying from his London home to the venue…
Motorists were warned that heavy rainfall could lead to dangerous conditions on the road.
A spokesman for the Met Office said spray and surface water meant “roads like the M11, M18, M1 and A1 won’t be very pleasant”.
Some people in London have been welcoming Friday’s rain after weeks of hot and dry weather.
Thursday was the hottest day of the year so far with a high of 35.3C recorded in Faversham, Kent – the highest in the UK since 2015.
Conditions over the weekend are expected to be cooler, with the possibility of more rain, strong winds and more average temperatures for the time of year – either in the high teens or low 20s.
But the forecast currently predicts more hot weather later next week.
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-44976591
31
btw the BBC article’s headline has been changed from –
UK heatwave: July heat record may be broken despite storms – BBC
The UK’s July temperature record could be broken on Friday despite the arrival of storms in parts of the country. The Met Office expects highs of up to 37C (98F), meaning the current record of 36.7C – set in 2015 – may be beaten.
Forecasters had said the UK’s all-time record of 38.5C could be passed on Friday, but those estimates have been toned down following overnight storms.
More storms are expected from 14:00 BST, with a yellow weather warning issued for the east of England.
Temperatures will still be high though – around 30C for many, and it could be higher in East Anglia.
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-44976591
found some of the excerpts on this forum, which has the entire article, but the Buzz50 link isn’t working; had to go to cached version. the BBC link at the forum goes to the re-written article:
Buzz50: TOPIC: UK heatwave: July heat record may be broken despite storms
(includes) The BBC’s science editor looks at why we’re facing worldwide heatwaves(?)
https://www.buzz50.com/forum/2-serious-discussion/1547432-uk-heatwave-july-heat-record-may-be-broken-despite-storms
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presumably this is the “BBC’s science editor looks at why we’re facing worldwide heatwaves” included at Buzz50; note, however, it is immediately a “Europe-wide heatwave”!
27 Jul: BBC: Climate change driven by humans made heatwave ‘twice as likely’
By Matt McGrath
Climate change resulting from human activities made the current ***Europe-wide heatwave more than twice as likely to occur, say scientists
Researchers compared the current high temperatures with historical records from seven weather stations, in different parts of Europe.
Their preliminary report found that the “signal of climate change is unambiguous,” in this summer’s heat.
They also say the scale of the heatwave in the Arctic is unprecedented…
The scale and breadth of the current heat being experienced across Europe has prompted many questions about the influence of global warming on extreme events.
To try and see if there is a connection, researchers looked at data from seven weather stations, in Finland, Denmark, Ireland, the Netherlands, Norway and Sweden.
They chose these locations because they all had digitised records dating back to the early 1900s, unlike the UK. The team also used computer models to assess the scale of human-influenced climate change.
The researchers found that in the weather stations in the Netherlands, Ireland and Denmark, climate change has generally increased the odds of the current heatwave by more than two-fold
So what exactly is a heatwave?…
“In many parts of Europe three day heat is not very exceptional and you could argue that it would be better to look at longer,” said Dr Friederike Otto from the University of Oxford, one of the study’s authors.
“But we’ve looked at longer periods and it doesn’t change the result very much.”
The researchers also say the warmest three days in succession this year may not yet have happened but they believe that even if next week is warmer, it won’t change the overall impact…
Is this definitive proof of the impact of climate change?
Scientists are loath to say a specific event was “caused” by climate change – however they believe that this new study joins a growing list of solid links between rising temperatures and extreme events.
One thing the researchers can’t say right now is whether the high pressure system that has been blocked over Europe for almost two months was caused by climate change. The scientists, from the World Weather Attribution group say they will address this question when they formally publish their findings in a scientific journal later this year.
Can they tell us when another heatwave will strike Europe?
They can’t be that definite. However the study does give figures for what are termed “return periods” or the chances of something happening again…
“The logic that climate change will do this is inescapable – the world is becoming warmer, and so heatwaves like this are becoming more common,” said Dr Friederike Otto, from the University of Oxford.
“What was once regarded as unusually warm weather will become commonplace – in some cases, it already has,” she added…
While acknowledging that the current heatwave in the Arctic is unprecedented in the historical record, the researchers were not able to clearly resolve the impact of human influence…
Despite their reservations about the Arctic they argue that their initial findings should prompt more action on cutting carbon from governments.
“We are not taking the right measures,” said Dr Robert Vautard, from the CNRS in France.
“We are discovering climate change rather than doing something against it.”…
How do you work out the influence of climate change?
It involves some serious number crunching!…
These days the attributions studies are much faster – just last year scientists concluded that the flooding in Houston, Texas was made 38% more likely by climate change while the so-called “Lucifer” heatwave in Eastern Europe was made ten times more likely. This new study was completed in less than a week.
https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-44980363
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one I saved yesterday:
27 Jul: BBC: Why wildfires are breaking out in the ‘wrong’ countries
By Prof Stefan H. Doerr & Dr Cristina Santín, Swansea University
An area equivalent to twice the size of the UK is burnt by wildfires in a typical year.
Most are in remote areas such as the savannah grasslands of Africa and South America, or the boreal forests which stretch from western Alaska to eastern Siberia.
But we rarely hear about wildfires in such isolated places. It tends to be those which threaten lives, infrastructure, or natural resources that hit the headlines.
Indeed, in Europe, the number of fires so far this year is well above average – but not in the countries which are usually worst affected…
There were 427 blazes between 1 January and 24 July, compared with an average of 298 for the same period in the past decade.
But, very importantly, the area they burned is only about half what is usually seen – 55,700 hectares, compared with 112,000 hectares.
In the US, the number of fires this year is slightly below average. However, there has been a small increase in the area burned, from just over 1.4m hectares to almost 1.6m hectares.
The most important change is not how many fires there have been, but where they are burning. The north-west of Europe is experiencing a rare heatwave…
In the UK the area burned so far – 13,888 hectares – is more than four times the average of the past decade. The fires have included an area of peatland near Manchester and grassland in London.
In Sweden, the figure, 18,500 hectares, is an astounding 41 times the 10-year average. Dozens of fires have burned from the Arctic Circle down to the Baltic Sea.
Other northern European countries including Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Germany and Latvia have seen between 20 and 200 times the normal area burned.
In contrast, Mediterranean Europe – which usually sees a large number of fires – has had a relatively cool and wet spring and early summer.
In Italy and Croatia the area burned is well below average.
Spain and Portugal, which normally have fire damage over a greater area than any other European countries, have suffered relatively few fires – with only 12% and 5% of the average area burned, respectively.
However, fire season is not over and there is a danger that strong vegetation growth in parts of the Mediterranean may fuel fires later in the coming months.
While no single factor explains hot weather around the world, experts say climate change is bringing greater and more frequent weather extremes (LINK to BBC’s Six graphics that explain climate change)…
Higher temperatures worldwide increase the risk of wildfires in many regions, but other factors are also important…
And sources of ignition are plentiful where there are people, whether that is a campfire, a spark from a power line, or arson…
The deadly fires in Greece are a prime example of weather being only one important factor.
Until a few days ago, Greece had experienced fewer fires than is typical.
But, in a densely-populated region near Athens, the presence of villages and towns amid highly-flammable pine forests and shrubland has had tragic consequences…
About this piece
This analysis piece was commissioned by the BBC from experts working for an outside organisation.
Prof Stefan H. Doerr is a geography professor at Swansea University and editor-in-chief of the International Journal of Wildland Fire.
Dr Cristina Santín is senior lecturer and research fellow in the biosciences department at Swansea University.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-44941999
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I read that arson in Greece is used to open up new areas for development – otherwise denied as the forested areas are protected http://theconversation.com/greek-fires-the-predatory-political-economy-behind-a-recurring-human-disaster-100500
And they do believe, now, that these fires were arson. Not CAGW.
https://abcnews.go.com/US/greek-investigators-find-indications-arson-wildfires-killed-82/story?id=56836370
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the academics at BBC might have focused more on arson!
27 Jul: AFP: ‘Serious’ signs arson started deadly Greek wildfire
by Odile DUPERRY
Greece’s government said on Thursday there were “serious” indications the fire in which most of the 82 people who perished in the country’s worst ever wildfires died may have been started deliberately.
“A serious piece of information has led to us opening an investigation” into possible “criminal acts” behind the starting of the fire on Monday that ravaged the coastal region of Mati east of Athens, Deputy Citizen Protection Minister Nikos Toskas said.
He said authorities were also examining whether another fire, which broke out hours earlier on Monday near Kineta to the west of the Greek capital, was “intentionally” lit. No one died in the Kineta fire.
“There are testimonies but I cannot say anything more now,” Toskas added at a news conference in Athens, which was attended by government spokesman Dimitris Tzanakopoulos and fire and police chiefs.
27 Jul: ABC: Reuters: Greece fires: Arson suspected in Mati blaze as authorities also blame ‘town planning chaos’ for disaster
It is suspected that arson was behind a devastating forest fire which killed at least 83 people and turned the small town of Mati east of Athens into a wasteland of death and destruction, Greece’s Government says…
“We have serious indications and significant signs suggesting the criminal actions of arson,” Civil Protection Minister Nikos Toskas told a news conference.
He said police had testimonies to that effect, but did not elaborate.
Reports said police were investigating how the fire started from three different locations at the same time, on a day when a second major fire was raging west of the Greek capital…
Adding to the misery, an area of Athens was hit by flash floods on Thursday, damaging scores of cars…
27 Jul: UK Star: Spate of arson attacks overnight across South Yorkshire
27 Jul: Hull Daily Mail: Humberside Fire and Rescue Service has this message for arsonists in Hull
They attended four incidents within an hour
by Sophie Kitching
The fire incident log from Tuesday overnight into Wednesday also showed that the fire service attended four incidents in Stonebridge Avenue, Hull, at 11.45pm, 12.29am, 1.28pm and 1.56am.
The message comes as Humberside Police revealed on Wednesday it had arrested two 16-year-old boys in connection with another incident on Tuesday night…
17 Jul: The Local Sweden: What you need to know about Sweden’s historic wildfire outbreak
Human error
Many of the fires are thought to have been started by people using disposable barbecues, despite a ban on lighting them and any other kind of open fire in the majority of municipalities at the moment…
6 Jun: The Local Sweden: Swedish police arrest woman for starting forest fire
Swedish police have arrested a woman on suspicion of deliberately starting one of three forest fires in central Sweden.
The woman is accused of starting a fire in Broddbo, north of Sala, on Tuesday, shortly after firefighters had extinguished a blaze which broke out on Monday in the nearly village of Rörbo…
Police are also investigating whether the woman could have also been involved in the Rörbo fire and in a third fire which broke out on Tuesday.
“When we already suspect that a fire has been deliberately started and then two more start in more or less the same time and place, of course we start to look at them too,” Hedström’s colleague Daniel Wikdahl told TT…
26 Jul: Time: Arson Suspect Arrested as Wildfire Burns 4,700 Acres in Southern California
By Mahita Gajanan
A man has been charged with setting a wildfire near Los Angeles that burned 4,700 acres, five homes and forced thousands of people to evacuate.
Cal Fire officers arrested Brandon N. McGlover and booked him five counts of arson to wild land, a release from the San Bernardino National Forest said Wednesday. McGlover is accused of setting five fires in Riverside County, the largest of which – dubbed the Cranston Fire – burned in and around the San Bernardino National Forest, the Associated Press reports. According to forest officials, the fire is 5% contained.
27 Jul: The Local Spain: AFP: Man held for causing major wildfire in Spain
Spanish police said Thursday they have arrested a man suspected of causing a fast-moving wildfire that raged for two weeks and forced the evacuation of more than 100 people.
The unidentified man is believed to have deliberately started the fire that broke out on August 21st last year in the county of La Cabrera in the northern region of Leon, the Guardia Civil police force said in a statement.
The blaze charred over 9,000 hectares (22,000 acres) of pasture, pine, oak and shrub land, and saw more than 100 people evacuated from 11 hamlets before it was put out on September 3rd…
Police said the man, who is from Madrid, faces a possible jail term of up to five years in jail for arson.
May 2017: The Local Spain: German man jailed for sparking Canary Island wildfire by burning toilet paper
A 27-year-old German man has been sentenced to three-and-a-half years in prison for causing a forest fire that claimed the life of a forest worker on the island of La Palma…
The wildfire devastated around 5,000 acres of forest, engulfing the town of El Paso and forced the evacuation of hundreds of residents.
Verdine, a loner who was reportedly living in a cave on the island at the time…
A provincial court in Santa Cruz de Tenerife ruled that Verdine should also pay €1.8 million ($2 million) for the restoration of the affected forest areas and compensate the relatives of the deceased forest worker.
28 Jul: UK Sun: BURNING BLAZE What are wildfires, how do they start, why do they spread so quickly and where have the worst ones struck this year?
Wildfires will destroy anything in its path if given fuel to feed it
By Amanda Devlin
Four out of five wildfires are started by people, with nature there to help fan the flames…
Common causes of wildfires include, lightning, campfires, smoking, burning debris, fireworks or arson…
A raging blaze can be hard to stop because a wildfire can be be driven by winds, slopes or fuel.
Combine all three and it makes it a very dangerous situation.
If the ground is very dry, it can also make the fire extremely difficult to contain…
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/4727971/wildfire-causes-spread-where-greece-sweden-california-portugal/
novel length, but good overview or Portugal’s 2017 fires:
Aug 2018 Issue: Harpers Mag: There Will Always Be Fires
By Scott Sayare
Thousands of fires burn in the region each summer, almost all of them started not by lightning or some other natural spark but by the remaining Portuguese. (The great majority of the blazes are started unintentionally, though not all.) The pinhal interior—the name means “interior pine forest,” though today there is at least as much eucalyptus as pine—stretches along a sort of climate border between the semiarid Iberian interior and the wet influence of the Atlantic; vegetation grows exceptionally well there, and in the summers fire conditions are ideal. Still, most of the burns are quickly contained, and although they have grown larger in recent years, residents have learned to pay them little mind. The creeping fire that began in the dry duff and twigs of an oak grove on June 17 of last year, in the district of Pedrógão Grande, therefore occasioned no panic…
https://harpers.org/archive/2018/08/there-will-always-be-fires-pinhal-interior-portugal-wildfires-mega-fires/
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comment in moderation re: the academics at BBC might have focused more on arson! ETC
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27 Jul: Bloomberg: Largest U.S. Wind Farm Dealt Potentially Fatal Blow in Texas
By Jim Efstathiou Jr and Chris Martin
Texas dealt a potential death blow to what would be the largest-ever U.S. wind farm: American Electric Power Co.’s $4.5 billion Wind Catcher project.
The Texas Public Utility Commission on Thursday unanimously rejected the project as proposed, saying it doesn’t offer enough benefits for ratepayers as currently structured. American Electric said it was evaluating its options.
“Looks like curtains to me,” said Paul Patterson, an analyst at Glenrock Associates LLC. “Almost everyone was opposed to this. Barring any big concessions from AEP, it looks to me like it’s dead.”
The denial could spell the end of American Electric’s ambition to make one of the largest renewable energy purchases ever by a U.S. utility company. The rejection comes as utility owners including Xcel Energy Inc. and Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway Inc. have been seeking state approvals to charge customers for renewable energy projects that have become more competitive with electricity produced by fossil-fuels…READ ALL
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-07-26/largest-u-s-wind-project-dealt-potentially-fatal-blow-in-texas
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27 Jul: Guardian: Liberal MP Craig Kelly calls Frydenberg emissions deal a ‘double-edged sword’
Minister told states target could be reviewed, but backbencher warns they may not like the result
by Katharine Murphy
Dissident Liberal MP Craig Kelly has declared the energy minister, Josh Frydenberg, is taking a risk by offering the states a review of the government’s proposed emissions reduction target for electricity…
“Any review could seek to lower the current target as well as increase it,” Kelly told Guardian Australia.
Pressed on whether that was likely, given the weight of evidence suggests the target is already too low to see Australia conform with its Paris commitments, Kelly said it was possible that by 2024, more countries could have withdrawn from the Paris agreement, “or failed to meet their obligations”…
The ESB also contends the Neg will reduce wholesale electricity prices by 20% over the decade from 2020 to 2030…
But a separate analysis by energy market analysts Reputex, funded by Greenpeace and released last week, suggests a Neg with a low emissions reduction target would increase power prices to 2030 because the policy as currently drafted locked in coal and gas over the decade, and a lower proportion of power generated from renewable sources…
***The Reputex modelling suggests under a more ambitious emissions reduction target of 45% wholesale power prices would fall by a quarter to around $60 per megawatt hour (MWh) by 2030 as more renewables entered the energy mix. In contrast, under the Neg, power prices would be just over $80/MWh.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/jul/27/liberal-mp-craig-kelly-calls-frydenberg-emissions-deal-a-double-edged-sword
***is that peer-reviewed? see below:
27 Jul: SMH: Peter Hannam: Federal Labor, experts call for full release of energy plan modelling
Seeking some form of external ***peer-review of the board’s modelling for its full final design paper has been raised with at least one state government, Fairfax Media understands…
A key sales pitch by the board is the estimate, revealed this week, that the scheme will cut households’ power bills by an average $150 a year – as part of $550 in overall savings – during the first decade of its operation, starting from 2020.
“Where is the modelling that proves this?” Mark Butler, federal Labor’s climate spokesman said. “All modelling of the NEG should be made available so stakeholders and the public can properly assess its merits.”…
https://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/federal-labor-experts-call-for-full-release-of-energy-plan-modelling-20180727-p4zu1q.html
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Labor’s demand for peer-reviewed costings might have been a response to this! behind paywall:
ALP’s lurch left on power to force up bills, cost jobs
The Australian Editorial – 26 Jul. 2018
Those Labor states are locked into unrealistic renewable energy targets of 50 per cent by 2030 (Queensland) and 40 per cent by 2025 (Victoria)…
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Aussies on here will know Pascoe:
27 Jul: New Daily: Don’t believe in climate change? Then come over to Europe
by Michael Pascoe
Just how hot does it have to get before the global frog understands he’s cooking?
Having become used to Australia’s run of record-setting or near-record annual temperatures, it’s somehow been surprising to spend the past month in a dry and increasingly hot Europe…
I picked up a copy of The Times boarding the plane on Thursday morning. The front page reported Britain expected to set its highest-ever recorded temperature of 38.5 degrees Celsius. Britain’s temperature records go back to the 1600s…
That’s after the bushfire tragedy in Greece, absolutely extraordinary temperatures in Finland above the Arctic Circle, major wildfires in Sweden, even the seemingly immaterial matter of the dust and dead grass in Paris and London parks, all while seeing news reports of Japan’s killer heatwave.
Sometimes a change of scenery can provide fresh perspective. For me, it’s the realisation at the gut level that we are indeed starting to cook…
How hot does the water have to be before the mythical frog cottons on? How extreme before Tony Abbott apologises for continuing to stir the pro-carbon pot for petty political purpose, before The Australian newspaper stops publishing articles claiming ‘the science isn’t in’?
I feel foolish with the admission that it’s taken being a July tourist in Europe to really get it. Oh, I’ve had a standard, cerebral sort of appreciation of climate change – had it brought home two years ago while writing a piece on how there are no climate deniers among wine grape growers – but it’s another thing to feel it…
At this point, let me publicly salute Peter Hannam who has been tirelessly fighting the good fight in the Fairfax papers, reporting for years now what we don’t quite want to see, suffering slings and arrows from the ignorant along the way. He deserves a Walkley Award for perseverance as well as his body of work…
For the deniers, denying has become a matter of dogma, an article of faith. Like fanatics of any cult, they seek each other out for reassurance, denying even what their eyes see. They have moved beyond all relevance…
https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/world/2018/07/27/climate-change-europe-heatwave/
Pascoe links to the following on his Twitter page!
7 May: NatureClimateChange: Relationships among conspiratorial beliefs, conservatism and climate scepticism across nations
Authors: Matthew J. Hornsey, Emily A. Harris & Kelly S. Fielding
Abstract
Studies showing that scepticism about anthropogenic climate change is shaped, in part, by conspiratorial and conservative ideologies are based on data primarily collected in the United States. Thus, it may be that the ideological nature of climate change beliefs reflects something distinctive about the United States rather than being an international phenomenon. Here we find that positive correlations between climate scepticism and indices of ideology were stronger and more consistent in the United States than in the other 24 nations tested. This suggests that there is a political culture in the United States that offers particularly strong encouragement for citizens to appraise climate science through the lens of their worldviews. Furthermore, the weak relationships between ideology and climate scepticism in the majority of nations suggest that there is little inherent to conspiratorial ideation or conservative ideologies that predisposes people to reject climate science, a finding that has encouraging implications for climate mitigation efforts globally…
References
1. Lewandowsky, S., Gignac, G., & Oberauer, K. The role of conspiracist ideation and worldviews in predicting rejection of science. PloS One 8, e75637 (2013).
2. Lewandowsky, S., Oberauer, K. & Gignac, G. NASA faked the Moon landing – therefore (climate) science is a hoax: An anatomy of the motivated rejection of science. Psychol. Sci. 24, 622–633 (2013).
3. McCright, A. M. & Dunlap, R. E. The politicization of climate change and polarization in the American public’s views of global warming, 2001–2010. Sociol. Q. 52, 155–194 (2011).
4. Hornsey, M. J., Harris, E. A., Bain, P. G. & Fielding, K. S. Meta-analyses of the determinants and outcomes of belief in climate change. Nat. Clim. Change 6, 622–626 (2016).
5. Kahan, D. M. et al. The polarizing impact of science literacy and numeracy on perceived climate change risks. Nat. Clim. Change 2, 732–735 (2012).
6. Bain, P. G., Hornsey, M. J., Bongiorno, R. & Jeffries, C. Promoting pro-environmental action in climate change deniers. Nat. Clim. Change 2, 600–603 (2012)…
10. Leiserowitz, A. Climate change risk perceptions and policy preferences: The role of affect, imagery, and values. Climatic Change 77, 45–72 (2006)…
17. Lewandowsky, S., Cook, J. & Lloyd, E. The ‘Alice in Wonderland’ mechanics of the rejection of (climate) science: Simulating coherence by conspiracism. Synthese 195, 175–196 (2018)…
23. Oreskes, N. & Conway, E. M. Merchants of Doubt: How a Handful of Scientists Obscured the Truth on Issues from Tobacco Smoke to Global Warming (Bloomsbury, New York, 2010)…
27. Lewandowsky, S., Oreskes, N., Risbey, J. S., Newell, B. R. & Smithson, M. Seepage: Climate change denial and its effect on the scientific community. Glob. Environ. Change 33, 1–13 (2015).
32. Cook, J. & Lewandowsky, S. Rational irrationality: Modeling climate change belief polarization using Bayesian networks. Top. Cogn. Sci. 8, 160–179 (2016)…
40. Arnold, D. Why Princess Diana conspiracies refuse to die. The Conversation (30 August 2017)…
Acknowledgements
The work reported in the current paper was supported by funding from the Australian Research Council (DP120100961)…
Author information
Affiliations
School of Psychology, University of Queensland, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia
Matthew J. Hornsey & Emily A. Harris
School of Communication & Arts, University of Queensland, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia
Kelly S. Fielding
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-018-0157-2
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25 Jul: CFACT: Tom Steyer’s plan to force renewable energy on Arizona ratepayers is falling apart
by Jason Hopkins
Despite enjoying millions of dollars from a Tom Steyer front group, a campaign aiming to increase Arizona’s renewable energy mandate is fumbling.
Clean Energy for a Healthy Arizona is a campaign group working to increase Arizona’s renewable energy portfolio to 50 percent by 2030 — a dramatically sharp increase from its current target of 15 percent by 2025. In order to accomplish this, the group must submit enough valid signatures to put the issue on the November ballot. After launching a massive canvassing effort, Clean Energy for a Healthy Arizona submitted 480,464 signatures to the Arizona Secretary of State’s office on the July 5 deadline — more than twice the number required.
However, the validity of the signatures were called into question almost immediately.
An investigation by Arizonans for Affordable Electricity — a campaign that opposes the renewable mandate proposal — discovered thousands of signatures that appeared forged, lacked proper documentation or were outright fraudulent. They filed a lawsuit with the Arizona Superior Court on July 19, claiming the clean energy group only submitted 106,441 valid signatures — less than half the required amount to qualify for the ballot.
The push for more renewable energy appeared to take another hit.
Arizonans for Affordable Electricity confirmed to The Daily Caller News Foundation that 20,021 signatures were gathered by circulators who hold felony records…
NextGen Climate Action, a group founded and funded by Steyer, has made up nearly all of Clean Energy for a Healthy Arizona’s funding. Financial records reveal NextGen has donated around $4.5 million to the initiative, making up 99.99 percent of all donations. Fewer than 50 people personally donated to the clean energy campaign, with the largest individual contribution in the second quarter totaling $25…
http://www.cfact.org/2018/07/25/tom-steyers-plan-to-force-renewable-energy-on-arizona-ratepayers-is-falling-apart/
26 Jul: ABC: Why narrow streets are the way of the future
ABC Radio Brisbane By Jessica Hinchliffe
Neil Sipe, a professor of planning from the University of Queensland, said narrow streets were the way of the future…
“We have to come to terms with densifying our inner-city suburbs and there’s going to be more pressure on parking — narrow streets help this.”…
He said it was not only cost that was slimming down Australian streets.
“One is the cost factor, second is speed — many people don’t realise that narrower streets control speeds,” Mr Sipe told ABC Radio Brisbane’s Rebecca Levingston…
With narrow streets, often comes less parking, encouraging residents to ditch the car and use public transport, yet Mr Sipe said Australians were still opting for their vehicles…
Mr Sipe added that not everyone agreed with narrow streets and some residents were taking action into their own hands…
“Reducing the width can aid heat island effects, where temperature in urban areas increase due to roads and infrastructure.”
In the United States, a new initiative, Skinny Streets, is seeing road widths reduced in Portland, Oregon.
The city has seen safer driving and better results for small businesses by fostering a sense of community.
“They’re taking abnormally wide streets and shrinking them down for a variety of reasons, including speed, stormwater run-off, and in some cases they’re converting the width to include bike lanes,” Mr Sipe said.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-07-26/why-roads-are-becoming-narrower-in-the-suburbs/10032984
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27 Jul: RenewEconomy: Victoria’s biggest solar farm reaches financial close, to power steel works
By Giles Parkinson
The Numurkah solar farm – which at 100MW (AC) will be the largest solar facility in Victoria, at least for a while – has reached financial close and will begin construction next week.
The $198 million facility will help power the Laverton step works in Victoria, under a ground-breaking deal signed with Sanjeev Gupta’s GFG Alliance, and will also take French developer Neoen to 1GW of renewable energy assets in Australia.
Numurkah, located near Shepparton in the Goulburn Valley the north of Melbourne, has also signed a deal with the Victorian government for the supply of renewable energy certificates towards its tram network…
The Clean Energy Finance Corporation, which is providing $56 million in loans towards the project, says it is a “path-breaking example of how solar energy can deliver a cost-effective solution for Victoria’s energy-intensive manufacturers.”…
“The lower cost of solar, combined with these types of commercial power purchase agreements, offer manufacturers welcome control over their energy use,” he said…
In a statement on Friday, Victoria energy minister Lily D’Ambrosio said: “We’re supporting the renewables sector to create local jobs and deliver affordable, clean energy. We’ve backed the Numurkah solar farm every step of the way to drive down energy prices, create jobs and reduce emissions.”…
Neoen’s Woitiez: “There is huge interest in corporate demand. A lot of global and national organisations are looking to buy renewable energy – they not valuing the certificates, they like the long term stability of renewables, and because it is more competitive than coal.”…
Neoen owns the Tesla big battery, also known as the Hornsdale Power Reserve, located next to the 315MW Hornsdale wind farm, and has also built the Griffith and Parkes solar farms, and the Dubbo solar hub, which have been completed.
It is also building the Bulgana green energy hub, which will combine a 175MW wind farm and another Tesla big battery to power the new Nectar Farms greenhouse facilities, and plans two other major hubs combining wind, solar and storage in north Queensland and South Australia.
Other than the CEFC, the Numurkah solar project sourced funds from Vantage Infrastructure, an independent specialist investment manager, as well as German Landesbank NORD/LB.
Downer EDI has been awarded the engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) contract for the power plant…
The solar farm is rated 100MW (AC) and 128MW (DC) and will generate more than 255GWh a year.
https://reneweconomy.com.au/victorias-biggest-solar-farm-reaches-financial-close-to-power-steel-works-11109/
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27 Jul: CNBC: Shares of First Solar tank 9% after big profit and sales miss
•First Solar reported a surprise loss for the second quarter as revenues badly missed expectations.
•Revenues were nearly $200 million short of consensus estimates as fewer sales closed in the quarter than expected.
•The company also lowered its full-year guidance for gross margins due to the cost of developing its new Series 6 solar module.
by Tom DiChristopher
The stock price fell by about $5 per share, or more than 9 percent, dropping below $49…
Sales for the quarter totaled $308 million, well below Wall Street’s expectation for sales of $503 million and less than half what First Solar drummed up in the year-ago period…
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/07/27/shares-of-first-solar-tank-9percent-after-big-profit-and-sales-miss.html
27 Jul: NBC Los Angeles: Tesla Solar Roof Mix-Up: What Went Wrong
Going green almost cost a homeowner a lot of green over a mix-up.
By Randy Mac
But an LA man accuses Tesla of damaging his home, saying the company agreed to pump the brakes on installation of a solar energy system when the price suddenly increased by thousands of dollars…
He’d reached an agreement for installation of solar panels and later, the Tesla Powerwall battery…
“My $5,000 estimate they had given me suddenly became $17,000,” he said. He also said this happened days before work was to begin.
Tesla says Lazar had two contracts: one for solar, and another for the battery, and it was the cost of installing the battery that was increasing…
Lazar told Tesla to pump the brakes…
Then, three days later, Lazar got a surprise in his backyard.
“I left for work Monday, I come back and look in my back yard and I’m like, ‘Oh my god. What’s happened?'”.
The north section of the roof was gone.
Tesla never told their contractor the work was postponed…
Lazar says his own roof inspector recommends replacing the entire roof.
It has to be a full replacement because they can’t guarantee it won’t leak…READ ON
https://www.nbclosangeles.com/news/local/Tesla-Solar-Roof-Randy-Consumer-Help-489393851.html
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28 Jul: Guardian: ‘I lost my cash in a solar project, but after a five-year battle I’ll get it back’
A small investor teamed up with hundreds of others who saw £7.5m go up in smoke. Now they will get compensation
by Paul Donovan
The offer for Secured Energy Bonds looked good. It was a chance to invest in a project to put solar panels on 22 schools across the country. The return offered was a decent rate of 6.5% over three years.
That was 2013. I first saw the adverts in the ***Guardian. I was not a big investor, but wanted to put some money into an environmentally sustainable project….
As a committed environmentalist I wanted to put money into something that combated climate change…
The trouble began in January 2015, when the fourth interest payment was not made…
A call to Capita, which processed the interest payments, confirmed that they had been suspended…
The first chance to meet the other 900-odd investors was the creditors meeting in April 2015. There was a lot of anger – it looked like we were not going to get a penny back…READ ON
https://www.theguardian.com/money/2018/jul/28/i-lost-my-cash-in-a-solar-project-but-after-a-five-year-battle-ill-get-it-back
27 Jul: Euronews: Reuters: Siemens Gamesa warns on trade tensions as turbine prices drag
By Stine Jacobsen and Jose Elías Rodríguez
The U.S.-Chinese trade row adds to challenges facing wind turbine makers such as Siemens Gamesa, Vestas and General Electric, which already face pressure from tighter markets and the phasing out of government subsidies…
Chief Executive Markus Tacke said it was not likely that the firm could pass on all the cost increases to customers.
“We are operating in very competitive markets,” he said. “The likelihood that we can pass through these effects into prices, I would consider this one rather low.”
Shares in Siemens Gamesa traded down 5.2 percent at 1000 GMT, while rival Vestas traded down 5.0 percent…
Revenue fell 21 percent to 2.14 billion euros ($2.49 billion) in the April-June quarter, while adjusted EBIT fell 26 percent to 156 million euros due to lower prices…
http://www.euronews.com/2018/07/27/siemens-gamesa-warns-on-trade-tensions-as-turbine-prices-drag
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28 Jul: CBC: Toronto: Bills insulating Ford government from lawsuits show it’s ‘closed for business,’ experts charge
Similarly, Bill 4 — tabled on Wednesday — cancelled cap and trade in Ontario and included a clause that says the government can’t be sued…
“It’s unusual,” Nelson Wiseman, a political scientist at the University of Toronto, said of the use of the immunity clause.
“It happens, but it’s not something that you want you want to do, certainly regularly. You’d only want to do it in extraordinary circumstances.”…
The White Pines wind turbine project — that was killed under Bill 2 — had been under development for nearly a decade.
Earlier this month, the president of WPD Canada, a subsidiary of the German company behind the project, said cancelling the project could cost more than $100 million. The compensation to the company will be limited to the direct cost it has incurred to this point. And the new bill prevents the company from suing…
Similarly, Bill 4, the Cap and Trade Cancellation Act, could leave companies on the hook for huge amounts of money. Part of the legislation is a compensation framework for companies that have already bought an estimated $2.78 billion worth of carbon credits. But most won’t be compensated.
“New governments are completely free to determine their own course. But this kind of sudden change in direction as a result of an election does have an unfortunate by-product,” said Ross.
“It undermines our reputation for a predictable, safe business environment.”
The government, for its part, disagrees with the assertion that its bills are bad for business.
Speaking to reporters on Wednesday, the Minister of Environment, Conservation and Parks Rod Phillips said the legislation has been received positively by the business community.
“The feedback I’ve been getting … is very positive about this government. I don’t have worries about that,” Phillips said.
Whether the immunity clauses stand up in court, especially if they’re tested by international companies, remains to be seen.
But Wiseman says even if they’re struck down, it might not damage the provincial government’s standing with Ontarians…
“Even if [legislation] were to be reversed in a court… people who voted for [Doug Ford] would say he gave it a go, he tried it, and he promised he’d do it.”
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/immunity-clauses-pc-government-1.4762866
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In an open minded world this post appears to invite the development of a solar panel driven air conditioning device. Let the problem correct itself.
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“It enabled the sweeping postwar development of the South, where all new single-family homes today include central air.
In automobiles, it made the commutes between air-conditioned homes and air-conditioned offices possible.
In the Southwest, its arrival facilitated new methods of rapid construction, replacing traditional building designs that once naturally withstood the region’s desert climate.
Parts of the United States whose historical development never depended on air-conditioning increasingly resemble the regions whose growth wouldn’t have been possible without it.”
How Air-Conditioning Conquered America (Even the Pacific Northwest)
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/04/upshot/the-all-conquering-air-conditioner.html?smid=tw-share&_r=1
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Not Spain but pretty close
“Delingpole: Don’t Let The Climate Nutcases Ruin Your Lovely Summer!”
https://www.breitbart.com/london/2018/07/28/this-warm-summer-is-not-what-climate-change-looks-like/
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https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/07/27/malcolm-turnbull-outrages-australia-eating-pie-knife-fork/
First, carbon dioxide gets branded as ‘pollution’; second, Don Quixote’s windmills are going to save the planet; third, scientists discover it’s way worserer than they thunked; fourth, your Pie Minister Mumble Trumble eats his humble pie with a knife and freakin’ fork? Abandon ship – all hope is lost!
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Spain is the second most mountainous country in Europe behind Switzerland, lots of high plains too, lots of -17ºc in winter in the North. But the South can get very hot, curiously not this year though.
When I arrived here in 2004 we had an August of 50ºC maximum and 11 nights where the minimum was 40ºC and that has not repeated, it seems to have cooled, this year has been extremely comfortable.
What the older people say is “when it’s hot there’s only one thing to do – nothing”, and they’ll take a chair outside and sit there until after midnight because the house is too hot, it seems that a lot of older folk still reject airconditioning or just can’t afford it. (probably because 1/3 of the electricity bill is for renewable subsidies).
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Sydney soon record warmest mean maximum temperature on the record in this July. You kooks continue think no heat problem for world
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Hey Joe,
in a dictionary or translater, look up the words ‘weather’ or ‘meteorology’ – while parts of NSW (Sydney) have been enjoying pre-frontal warm winds out of the north, the inland Snowy Mountains (further south) have been blasted by colder Antarctic air driving those fronts. I’ve just checked the temperature at Thredbo’s Top Station site: it’s -3˚C with a -21˚C wind chill at 2 pm. Twenty-one degrees Celsius below zero/freezing, plus it’s snowing as well… quite heavily… in Australia… hoot! I’m sure many ‘city’ skiers are now inside, enjoying the life-saving benefits of a roaring fire or electrical heating or a hot tub with a hotter Glühwein in hand.
Also, it looks like southern West Australia is in for snow later this week. Enjoy your search . . .
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Greg in NZ.
You are changing the subject. What Joe says is correct, and is consistent with the effects of global warming on Australia as a whole. I will check again Wednesday to see if Sydney broke the 157 year record (with the caveat that records before 1910 are a bit dodge).
http://www.weatherzone.com.au/station.jsp?lt=site&lc=66062&list=ds
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Hint: Sydney is not ‘Australia’ nor the ‘world’ – even though you, and some of my family and friends who live there, think it is. Lest we forget – urban heat island effect.
Sydney Observatory Hill 0800 EST: 12.1˚C, 9.4˚C wind chill (that sea breeze off the ocean is certainly keeping things cool).
Thredbo Top Station 0800 EST: -3.2˚C, -17.3˚C wind chill, snowing lightly with 15 – 20 cm new snow expected over the next 24 hours, on an already existing 1 metre snow base.
Hang on Harry, wasn’t it supposed to be ™too hot to snow anymore™ years ago?
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Greg in NZ.
This is why I don’t spend much times on these types of blogs – people keep changing the subject. I have no idea why you are babbling about snow, and think there is a prediction that snow would stop.
No one said Sydney or Australia was the whole world. But if you look at the global mean temperature, it is rising too. The averages for the world, for Australia and even for Sydney are rising and this is consistent with global warming.
Sydney is an interesting case because it has a long, reliable temperature record. If you are claiming it is effected by UHI, then please show your estimates for this. If the Sydney record was static or falling, I am sure the “skeptics” would be interested.
At some point the people on the fringe have to face facts – global warming is real and is happening.
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New July maximum temperature 157 year record for Sydney. It broke the previous record set in 2013 by 0.4C. It’s a bit hard blaming the 0.4C increase on clearing trees along Anzac Parade for the new light rail 🙂
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Sydney temps come from the Obs, backed up against expressway and city, far from Anzac Pde. It’s UHI affected and that’s all there is to it. The bloke who does the posh veggie garden atop Galeries Lafayette in Paris says it’s a great idea because of the earlier and longer growing season. That’s because UHI is a real deal.
I’m one of those who would not be surprised if global warming is “real and happening” and find the matter trivial, since temps can only go two ways. When wetter patterns set in the 1950s our elders, remembering the 1930s and WW2 drought, were given to blaming Sputnik , A-bombs and H-bombs. Really, it was just climate change. When much of NSW turned to an inland sea in 1955, it was a bit of a shock, as was Sydney’s most sustained heatwave in 1960, then the Long Drought, then years in the seventies when rain seemed a permanent fixture. It was all just climate change, linear and cyclical.
Taking a selection of old NSW sites less affected by UHI: My region’s warmest July was in 1917, Lismore’s was in 1927, Yamba Pilot 1885, Newcastle Nobby’s 1877, Tenterfield 1993…
These old sites are likely less accurate, but UHI also leads to inaccuracy. I reckon that Sydney’s record high heat in 2013, though very brief, was the real deal because I checked other Sydney sites. To balance this off, however, it’s worth noting that the Wedding Cake site, just a paddle away from the Obs, was eleven degrees cooler, a far bigger discrepancy than normal, and that the heat did not make it up the coast here. Contrast that with the old record set in 1939, and what happened in that heatwave, despite the fact that the year was a La Nina flanked by neutral years.
As always, we can see that statistics without context and commonsense interpretation are worthless. The world’s hottest temp was recorded in 1913, and the hottest official daily max temps for North and South America, Europe and Australia are all old. These are just daily temp readings which got lucky, so I’m not making a big deal of it (though people interested in context should check out the days around the 1960 Oodnadatta reading).
Anyway, other parts of the world have set their max records very recently, and there are plenty of these. Like you, I think that global warming is “real and happening”, though I dare say we wouldn’t agree on much else.
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mosomoso.
Sometimes it is hard to tell if people understand jokes or not. And there is so much wrong with your post I wouldn’t know where to start.
Anyway, you just keep telling yourself AGW is not happening, it’s only a fringe view. Personally I don’t care I have mainstream science on my side. But if you think you can make an argument for why a 0.4C jump in 5 years in the July temps at ONE location is not consistent with AGW, go for it, I like contrarian views with evidence. However no rubbish about the temps in the middle of Sydney Harbour which are irrelevant.
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Well, Harry, I can only say that there is so much wrong with your post that I don’t know where to start. I you want to make a joke about UHI at the Obs make it about the Cahill Expressway…and maybe make it funnier.
You jump from empty ridicule to patronising argument-from-authority to demanding proof for a personal supposition about AGW, though I had already stated that recent warming would not surprise me.
Then a point made about one anomalous reading to do with the 2013 record is dismissed as rubbish because the reading in question was in the harbour. This despite the fact that I pointed out that the anomaly far exceeded the norm for Wedding Cake/Obs, harbour or no harbour, and that it was clearly meant as an illustration of anomalies, not as confirmation of UHI, a different subject. (I had taken the trouble in 2013 to check other temps in and around Sydney. I have also looked into the 1939 record for anomalies etc.)
Harry, you need to get a sense of context then make your points with more clarity and less aggression. If you check a less-affected site like Yamba or Nobbys you will likely see an annual temp increase for recent years. It will not be as marked as Sydney’s. But the real lesson of doing lots of comparing and checking is just how many anomalies you strike.
On the subject of science, what ballpark conclusions might be drawn from mainstream science about the nature of the present interglacial, the nature of the present warming within that interglacial and the Holocene’s place in the Quaternary as compared to the Eemian and Holsteinian? If you think these are “irrelevant” and “rubbish” questions you have no need to respond and can simply ignore them. In fact, I’m used to that.
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“nature of the present interglacial, the nature of the present warming within that interglacial and the Holocene’s place in the Quaternary as compared to the Eemian and Holsteinian?”
You have a mind that wanders… the post is about the Sydney temperature record. A temperature record which shows a clear warming trend which is consistent with the Australian warming trend which is consistent with the world warming trend.
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Mosomoso,
As you say, context is the key to understanding.
There is, in fact, so much context that any conclusions drawn from temperature records are indicative and certainly not definitive in a scientific sense.
For anyone to say that the Earths temperature has changed by the small amounts being thrown about is just an indication of lack of scientific rigour.
KK
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Absolutely wrong Harry
Look carefully at the 157 record average
It’s for the ONE day ONLY in August 1st on your link!
Not July!
Check BOM records if you like
http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDN60901/IDN60901.94768.shtml
Please correct your error!
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Dave, July 2018 mean max was 19.9. That does exceed the old record of 2013, which was 19.5. So Harry is correct, unless I’m missing something. (Of course, by the logic of the “jump” we might have said last year that there had been a “fall” of .04 in just four years.)
Anyway, I believe in all kinds of global warming and in UHI…and I’m happy to acknowledge that Sydney Obs has just had its warmest July by mean max. I’m equally happy to acknowledge that my own part of NSW has not just had its warmest July.
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Dave.
You can’t be serious.
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It should be ‘fewer people died’, not ‘less people died’. 😉
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