JoNova

A science presenter, writer, speaker & former TV host; author of The Skeptic's Handbook (over 200,000 copies distributed & available in 15 languages).


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Victoria in lockdown again. Border Wars suddenly vanish as hypocrite NSW leaders close state finally

The whole of Melbourne is now in a six week lockdown again, but thankfully, most of regional Victoria isn’t.  The freedom in regional Victoria is solely due to a “ring” around Melbourne.

Not only is the second peak  bigger than the first one, but it’s all community spread this time. Fully 191 new cases of Covid19 were announced in Victoria today. Ominously, only 37 so far can be traced (so far), which means this is not just about spot testing in the nine high rise towers that are now locked down. So , no indoor sport, no gyms, or concerts, museums or zoos can open. No more dining in restaurants and given the disturbing number associated with schools, the start of Term 3 has been delayed by a week for years 1 – 10, and possibly longer. But fishing, boating, golf, and surfing are OK. It’s good to see the quarantines are evolving, recognising the minimal benefit of stopping dispersed outdoor activity.

For people overseas, the Australian style of lockdown permits people to move for work if they can’t stay home, and to shop for essentials and to exercise.  Jobs are considered essential, but people are encouraged to work from home if they can.

UPDATE: There will be immense pain for businesses who only just set themselves up again, or workers who just got back to work. Hopefully we can find a way to share that burden fairly. Commiserations to all.

Victoria is testing over 20,000 people a day, and around 0.5% of all tests are positive. In comparison, in Arizona test positivity is more like 25%.

Victorian outbreak, Coronavirus

How fast the coronavirus can get out of hand. Victoria, Australia. (Click to enlarge). Graph, Guardian, Vic Health.

The Border Wars in Australia are suddenly over

Finally, borders are treated like the bargain option they should be. Both Scott Morrison and Glady Berijiklian (NSW Premier) had been demanding borders reopen all over the country, repeatedly saying there was no medical case for closing borders. That was until the Victorian outbreak suddenly grew to be larger than their own state’s last weekend, and then closed borders suddenly became very appealing.

Yesterday Dan Andrews (the Victorian Premier, in need of all the help he can get) was happy to provide cover for the hypocrisy of the other two NSW based leaders. He was the one who announced the border closure. But he’s not imposing or enforcing the state borders. NSW is.

The West Australian

…after a phone call between Mr Andrews, NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian and Prime Minister Scott Morrison, …it was agreed the Victorian border with NSW would be closed as of [Tuesday] night.

“That closure will be enforced on the New South Wales side, so as not to be a drain on resources that are very much focused on fighting the virus right now across our State,” Mr Andrews said.

Mr Andrews confirmed the border closure was a “joint decision” and wouldn’t comment on who first raised it.

Closing borders should be the first and cheapest solution to stop or slow any infectious virus. Only a small part of the economy in most places depends on interstate holiday and conference travellers. Most of the economy can continue without them as long as there is no local spread and thus no local restrictions. But the freedom within the borders is only as good as the strength of “wall”. (And suddenly all the Australian leaders are nervously tightening their slightly leaky borders). Victoria is the reminder that only a strong border stands between any Australian town and this virus.

In a household lockdown the border is the fence around each house. It’s obviously (and always was) that national, state and regional borders are a bargain — no matter how expensive they are — rather than trying to do household lockdowns.

Clive Palmer (the coal mining sellout to Al Gore in 2014) is taking WA to the high court to get the state to open borders, and Scott Morrison and the Federal Government officially supported him, which looks fairly comical now.

Mark McGowan Premier of WA says: “It does not make sense for the federal government to be supporting a border closure between NSW and Victoria but on the other hand challenging Western Australia’s border in the High Court of Australia.

Only a week ago Scott Morrison was saying Queenslanders are the “biggest losers” from border closures, and was accusing Qld and SA Premiers of “lacking perspective” over their decision to close borders with Victoria.

Scott Morrison, June 18th: …they [borders] should never have been closed in the first place.

He used the magical absence-of-evidence argument. Who noticed the dodge?

 “That was never the medical expert advice that was given to National Cabinet. States have gone their own way,” he said.

Hopefully Morrison will now recognise the value of borders and stop pretending there is any medical excuse not to enforce them. For months now he’s been saying we’re keeping the international borders closed due to medical advice but demanded state borders were open for the same reason.

How many international leaders will be watching this and learning?

Some US states could stop the coming trainwreck if they just copied Australia. How many people in regional USA could lead normal safe lives if the big cities were ring-fenced? Why is the US still allowing viruses to fly in and fly around when they don’t have to?

Australian state borders include at least two “twin” cities which straddle a border. In this case, while most of regional Victoria is fine and free, the twin cities of Albury Wodonga have suspect cases (NSW) and new cases (Vic). Seems like it would be wise to lock and test those two pronto.

Greg Sheridan on the Victorian Government’s Four Big Mistakes:

 The Victorian government made four stupid mistakes, even as it imposed the toughest lockdown regime in Australia.

First, it didn’t supervise the quarantine hotels properly. It chose to use untrained security guards without even the most elementary common sense of having them supervised by police officers, soldiers or prison guards.

Second, it made no serious effort to stop the Black Lives Matter mass demonstrations, unlike other governments.

Third, Victoria was not as energetic in contact tracing as other jurisdictions.

And fourth, a state government that prides itself on its multicultural credentials was not effective in communicating the social-distancing message to several ethnic and religious minorities whose generally perfectly innocent cultural practices were prone to spreading the virus.

As I said, the BLM rallies may or may not have spread the virus, but they blew away the community compliance with isolation and restrictions. At least the other states in Australia tried to stop the rallies. In Victoria, Andrews just fined the leaders, but everyone else knew it was fine. How much did the BLM rallies matter? We don’t know.

___________________________

Shelves being cleared out in some Melbourne stores. Can’t hurt to stock up wherever you are. 

For the record, two weeks ago I started restocking supplies even though there is no community spread here in WA. It’s better to keep the back ups, just in case. If bad news comes, we won’t contribute to the rush. If it doesn’t, I’m buying things we’ll use anyhow.

__________________________

Vic Health Information for Victorians

Australian coronavirus pandemic, Wikipedia

VN:F [1.9.22_1171]
Rating: 7.8/10 (48 votes cast)
Victoria in lockdown again. Border Wars suddenly vanish as hypocrite NSW leaders close state finally, 7.8 out of 10 based on 48 ratings

178 comments to Victoria in lockdown again. Border Wars suddenly vanish as hypocrite NSW leaders close state finally

  • #
    Geoff Sherrington

    Victorian Premier Andre3ws announced about 3.30 pm Tuesday 7 July that Melbourne would be locked down. Citizens allowed out of homes for 4 reasons, medical, essential work, essential food buying and some exercise/sports like golf. To last for 6 weeks. It includes the 9 high-rise buildings with tighter controls which will retain existing measures.
    Myself, I am affected and I am cranky. There is lockjaw from medicos and politicians about whether the BLM protest (Burn Loot Murder)of June 6 was a cause or part cause of the second wave.
    The AFL football code is a big thing in Melbourne. The highly-paid players have mostly shot through to other States before this lockdown. They could have stayed here to educate young people that this virus is serious and not a hoax like many youngsters state it to be. Thanks for your bravery and community help, AFL.
    Geoff S

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    • #

      None of the leaders or the media want to talk about Black Lives Matter rallies. It’s a dead loss for them either way. If they criticize the rally’s they break sacred rules, and if they admit the rallies were a problem then they are admitting they should have stopped them (or in the case of the media, not acted as an advertising agency for rally organisers).

      423

      • #
        Komrade Kuma

        Too bloody right Jo.

        The msm are just such utter free content tarts these days, its seems to be all about them being on camera either in the studio or in the field putting on their Farcebook/Instagram/whatever ‘influencer’ face with practiced mouth movements, head turns and leans, hand gestures etc and a sexed up narrative that allows them to appear as breathlessly engaged as possible.

        They have drifted so far from the ‘press’, that new, substantial ‘estate’ of the community that informed debate and revealed to a wide audience matters and ideas of importance, evidence pro and contra which turbocharged democracy from the 16th century onwards that it is just not funny rather it is quite sick. IMO they are approaching the reality check effect of Thalidomide which, after all, did stop morning sickness I gather but that was hardly the point with its demise. They are so intoxicated by their own self importance it is sickening and they facilitate if not actively encourage ‘fake news’, fake science and the coat trailling nonsense of so much characterised as ‘science communication’.

        Gosh I feel better now. Would love a glass or two of a nice red but its only Tuesday….:-))

        130

    • #
      glen Michel

      AFL kneel . NRL supine yourselves to BLM. We old Ruggers from the Bush would waltz over these new age softies. Athletic yes – but no mongrel or fortitude.

      192

    • #
      Bill In Oz

      Vic AFL in Qld means the game survives.
      Vic AFL teams in Melbourne means the game is dead.
      Frankly I want it to survive.
      Go Bombers !

      47

      • #

        I agree with your last sentence. Very annoying about Stringer but Daniher is training on the GC while he is listed as “injured (indefinite)”

        21

    • #
      Geoff Croker

      The “plan” is all written up by KPMG. Accountants rule. Gov accountability zip. No doubt its all AGILE and ISO9000 compliant.

      At least right up to the point when we need arms to get food. That is in about 6 months for anyone doing a non-compliant plan.

      Meanwhile, keep a sense of humour. A fantastic farce. Improvisations applied by politicians to evolving religious dramas. Paris writ large with usurous French subs and desal plants with Gaia idolatory thrown in. A hand in every pickle jar. All Pickles supplied by the RBA. They taste terrific.

      Crush the underclass. Offer bread and circuses to same. Ask Chairman Xi for an even BIGGER loan…. just in case. Buy votes for 26 November 2022. Get an even larger socialist state.

      Round and round it goes. Till the music stops. No chairs left and no where to go. Even Pickles are off the free music menu.

      162 years to make. Now on the verge of going. No economy, nothing left.

      Just the counters taking note of the counted…..

      I liked it better when it was scary. Turn off those lights…. this is embarrassing and even China may not save us…. because the Stupid Virus is very contagious.

      102

    • #
      tonyb

      Can anyone tell me how the virus has spread? We are all aware of social distancing, washing hands etc so presumably there were other routes?

      Reading between the lines, was it similar to the re-imposed lockdown In Leicester, whereby members of the ethnic community live in multi generational households, they socialise considerably at others homes and at mosques, and work in close proximity to each other? Many profess ignorance of the rules whilst others say they were told they had to go to work or else would lose their jobs.

      Can’t comment on BLM marches although in general the young have been congregating in large numbers and hugging and kissing on meeting.

      40

      • #
        yarpos

        Lack of respect for any rules other than your own, third world toilet habits, in Dans cause a alck of competence in doing real things. They would be my top 3 for VIC. Of course the Ruby Princess and Newmarch house is down the memory hole now, so they dont count.

        41

  • #
    Annie

    Just been reading about this in The Aus. So many times we now hear about cases, but not the finer details behind them. Especially do we hear of ‘unknowns’ and ‘under investigation’ cases. We do not hear of how serious the cases are and where they are. Now Mitchell Shire is added to the Melbourne lockdown…why? We are not told.

    210

    • #
      Peter C

      So True Annie,

      The government has been very secretive. That probably contributed to the current outbreak.

      Do they know what they are doing? Probably not.
      In any event the aim of the current lockdown exercise has not been specified. Are we to achieve 10 new cases per day or three of zero?

      I learned tonight that elective surgery in Private Hospitals can proceed at 100% (75% in Public Hospitals). I take that to mean that the Intensive Care facilities are not expected to be overwhelmed by this second wave. So Save Our Hospitals is not the aim, but what is the Aim?

      170

    • #
      Yonniestone

      I’m getting a CV-19 test today, on Sunday I came down with sore throat runny nose and aching joints, going by our work protocols I called in sick and on Monday called my GP to get advice, they got me to call the CV-19 test centre to arrange an appointment, called got an appointment for today and was sent a registration form to my phone from the department of health which I filled out and sent.

      Interesting was the level of concern for a potential CV-19 case, the GP reception was ready to make an appointment until I described my symptoms, the test centre wasn’t concerned with testing the other two people living with me unless they were showing the same symptoms.

      Regardless my symptoms have eased the last 24 hours with what I’m sure is a head cold of sorts but I’ll let you know how everything went.

      80

      • #
        RickWill

        Whatever it is, it does not sound like hay fever. For sure let us know how it turns out.

        30

    • #
      yarpos

      Mitchell has 8 active cases, same as some of the lower ranking suburbs in eastern Melbourne. Really they appear to be being penalised for proximity, probably a fair thing for Wallen but makes little sense for Seymour and environs.

      This site gives you a good view by govt area https://covidlive.com.au/vic/lga

      10

  • #
    robert rosicka

    Greg must have forgot about Cedar meats !

    150

  • #
    glen Michel

    After all I guess we can just go for it. Border leakage from Victoria to NSW is imminent and compromises the national recovery.Let this thing loose and damn it. Vulnerable protect yourselves.

    86

    • #
      WXcycles

      Gee, I wonder why China hasn’t done that? Or Iran? Or Russia?

      Maybe they’re not as clever.

      55

    • #
      Graham Richards

      Maybe NSW could borrow Trumps plans for “the wall” . I guess we shouldn’t put any ideas in Government heads!!!

      23

  • #
    Annie

    I am curious as to the claim that there were non-English speakers who didn’t know what was going on with the Wuflu. They seemed to know enough to empty the supermarket shelves; strange, eh?

    300

    • #
      Yonniestone

      And there’s the rub Annie, the so called non-English speakers also learn the rules of Centerlink quite well when it comes to maximise their free incomes and hide their illegal ones.

      70

      • #
        ando

        A relative works for Centrelink…She tells me typically when a ‘poor refugee’ sets foot in her office not long after entering the country, they immediately know of and demand to receive four or five different welfare payments and will argue black and blue to get them all. How does a ‘poor refugee’ know so much about our welfare system? No wonder up to 2000 drowned trying to get a piece of Rudd’s gold.

        130

  • #
    Annie

    I had a similar instinct re stocks in the last few weeks Jo. Added a few extra items on each shop. We are stuck in the country and if things go even more pear-shaped I want to have a sufficiency for a while; after all, we are a pair of oldies! and quite some way from shops. My usual place for a monthly larger shop is Seymour; I guess that’s out for 6 weeks. :(

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  • #
    OriginalSteve

    So now Southern Danistan has the pox…once again….

    Self inflicted injury of the PC kind.

    Oh the delicious irony of that one.

    If they don’t sack many high level bureaocrats for letting protests go ahead, you might as well issue everyone a little red book…..

    201

    • #
      yarpos

      I wonder if we will have another guns and ammo ban? Come on Minister Neville, you know you want to.

      11

  • #
    David Maddison

    Reasons of political correctness and overall Leftist bias stop any real investigation or discussion of the true causes of the outbreak.

    1) One cause is the Marxist rallies.
    2) Another is related to whatever demographic lives in the public housing tower blocks.
    3) Other reasons, and related to 2) relate to statements from officials about non-English speakers being infected in certain areas.

    102

    • #
      Bill In Oz

      [Duplicate]

      02

      • #
        Bill In Oz

        Filter does not like me !So I repeat :
        The basic reason is that identities and locations of those who are infected is being kept secret for privacy reasons.
        So individual privacy was put ahead of the whole public’s health.
        So the infected have license to do as they wish even after becoming infected.
        Now every one is locked down again that will stop again.
        Dingbattery seems very established in Victoria.

        64

    • #
      Yonniestone

      Ok I’ll elaborate on the demographics, mostly [SNIP, Sigh. Sorry. Section 18C and two protected groups/races - Jo ]and both have a clear history of little to zero respect for the law or its people, the blocks are known as “The Caves” and people unknown or unwelcome to them have been known to have to dodge an old car battery or broken glass dropped from higher up, these are the same people that car jack, home invade, violently attack citizens for no other reason except they can.

      These are also the people that refuse to respect the nations laws and will help spread CV-19 if their religious leaders tell them to do so, I associate the phrase “diversity is our strength” with “moving forward” both are insidious Marxist lies that have infested our mindsets.

      71

      • #
        Kalm Keith

        The most important thing is that they vote.

        Like most sensible people they vote according to where they believe their best interests lie for the future.

        00

  • #
    Carl

    I said from the beginning that we have to go through this and get herd immunity. We’re destroying our country and achieving nothing. There will be outbreak after outbreak forever. The lockdowns are just destroying our economy and our children’s future. Are we gambling our country’s future on the hope of a vaccine, which might be years away or might never be found.

    295

    • #
      AndyG55

      Certainly starting to look that way.

      I don’t see “lock-downs” actually working all that well for much longer.

      I think we will see a lot of people just saying….

      Been there, done that… no thanks. !

      142

      • #
        OriginalSteve

        Sweden had it right…this game of “hide the infected” only prolongs the inevitable.

        And if a italian medical professor is tight, the virus is greatly diminished in its bite.

        Hands up – who wants to play this insane isolation game for the next 5 years until Australia runs out of money?

        Any takers?

        101

        • #
          Ted O'Brien.

          Did you mean five months?

          10

          • #
            joseph

            A couple of minutes ago we were over a trillion AUD in debt. Nothing to worry about . . . . .

            A trillion seconds is only around 31,709.8 years . . . .

            21

            • #

              As I’ve said from the beginning we don’t even know if herd immunity is possible. Aiming for something that may not exist could turn out to be a very expensive mistake.

              And while the virus in Italy may be nicer (we hope so) that doesn’t mean that the virus in Brazil, Africa, Asia and everywhere else is also nicer.

              Sweden had 50 times as many deaths as us and no one wants to visit Sweden or let Swedes visit them. I bet they wish they were in Australia.

              44

              • #
                yarpos

                apples and oranges, Sweden has mid ranking excess deaths in Europe, the only number that can really be trusted in all the game playing BS. Who wants to play with who is a far longer term game than right now.

                11

  • #

    I suppose a middle-aged bookworm whose life is not very much disrupted by these severe lockdowns can argue for such restrictions, border controls and stocking up of goods from the grocery shelves. If the vulnerable in society can’t do that, well, never mind.

    To repeat: personal risk mitigation against viruses is not a matter for criminal law and police enforcement, except if you are of the socialist left mindset or are a middle aged bookworm who once studied microbiology.

    135

    • #
      WXcycles

      personal risk mitigation against viruses is not a matter for criminal law and police enforcement

      Compete rubbish, it is when people deliberately ignore their real responsibility to others in the community they live in, but they would not like it if someone else with the same attitude as theirs infects them, and they get 3 weeks in a hospital critical care bed, or worse. People who broke quarantine in Italy were charged with manslaughter to make sure everyone understood that they do have a culpability if they ignore their responsibility to the rest of us. You may not like it, but why should anyone care about what you like, if you don’t even care about the community you live in?

      1514

      • #
        OriginalSteve

        Charged with manslaughter?
        Really….did they kill someone?
        Was it proven they did?
        If not its a joke.

        Anyone want to play lockdown for the next 5 years….?

        55

        • #
          WXcycles

          Radical libertarians are not your friend Steve, they reject all necessary authority to maintain a viable civilization and social order via constitutional law, courts and police. They are not useful, helpful, or looking out for you, to ensure your freedom and liberty, they are do no such thing, they don;t care about you at all, they’re just a bunch of lawless, willful insane tossers who are a danger to everyone. Perhaps you fancy modelling yourself on that bankrupt radical-right philosophy?

          Radical-Right does not equal Right. Real conservatives are not radicals, they are sound of mind and they do one thing, what’s good for their whole community and civilization, and that includes making sure others are not harmed by the actions of insane tossers, on the ultra-right of the political spectrum of lunatics.

          Which people are not in fact conservatives, they’re just a bunch of loud mouth crazy fakes, flakes and fools who hijack the term ‘Conservative’, apparently to imbue it with negative connotations, and make it synonymous with puerile counterproductive immature unrealistic attitudes and stupidity.

          Actual Conservatives do what is best for the entire society, not just the ones you deem worthy of further life, and actual conservative minded people do not believe making money is more important than people.

          And they never will.

          22

          • #
            OriginalSteve

            Heres the thing….the whole scenario is pushing people down the Gates vaccine route….just as the globalists have shown clearly.

            Now that the globalists are also shutting off the hydroxychloroquine option, you can see how this is being done.

            So as I see it, an RNA vaccine is likely too dangerous, especially if its from buddy Gates and comes with a complementary tattoo for life….

            So that means we need to basically force the chemical options back on the table.

            Watching Victoria with rolling police enforcement, its more like watching military patrols in northern ireland. Coincidence?

            For my money, we are in very dangerous waters. All the average mug can talk about is vaccines, because years of govt propaganda has indoctrinated people thus, and the MSM is brainwashing people about trashing chemical alternatives.

            Now enter covipass…..no vaccine = no public life for you…

            People need to be aware of this game in play. Its a massive conditioning exercise in progress with the MSM being obedient lapdogs.

            41

  • #
    David Maddison

    The vulnerable such as the elderly, those with co-morbidities and immunocompromised need to be protected.

    For everyone else it should be business as usual, with sensible measures.

    Officials refuse to trial Dr Zelenko’s protocol, HCQ + Zinc + Azi, because orange man bad, but at least let doctors use it if patients want it and the doctor agrees. (Effective treatment for Stage 1 of disease according to Zelenko.)

    Herd immunity has to be established. Pay now or pay later.

    214

    • #

      Or save lives now and then when this evolves into a common cold, save lives later too.

      23

      • #
        yarpos

        and destroy your culture for clinical purity

        11

        • #
          Bill In Oz

          It must be god awful annoying for you and your pandemic denier mates Yarpos
          None of the Australian governments are taking ay notice of your USA sourced ‘denier’ medical prognostications
          And neither are the Australian people.
          I guess wea are made of sterner stuff here than in the USA!
          :-)

          04

  • #
    peter

    He used the magical absence-of-evidence argument. Who noticed the dodge?

    Seems like Jo has used that argument frequently against the climate alarmists claims of catastrophic anthropogenic warming when we know that there is no evidence of that. But I guess Kung-Flu is different.

    Here is a scientific argument Jo can’t dodge. The risk of open state borders increasing infection in a state would only be measurable if the level of infection across the border was significantly higher than the target state. Osmotic pressure if you like. Until very recently all Australian states had similar low numbers. If you think that is not now the case with Victoria remember that the number of new cases is still only a few hundred in a state of nearly 6.5 million. And nearly all of them were from inner Melbourne. In politically left electorates with a lot of woke people in them. That might say a lot. Been to a BLM protest lately?

    127

    • #
      Bill In Oz

      Two infected individuals found at Albury today.
      Both recently returned from Melbourne.
      Solution ? Close the border !
      I rest my case.

      612

      • #
        peter

        “Two infected individuals found at Albury today” in a population of 50,000. That’s a risk of meeting one of them of 0.00004 in Albury. If the border had been closed then they would have been trapped in Wodonga with a population of 100,000. That’s a risk of 0.00002! And of course the populations of Albury and Wodonga will not mix with the border closed. As usual Bill, your arguments are just utter BS! I rest my case.

        71

        • #
          Bill In Oz

          I have family there Peter in both cities. So I know your figures are wrong.
          Wodonga has a population of around 35,000
          The total population of the two cities is ~ 93,000.
          But to all intents & purposes the two cities are one one single city divided by the river Murray.
          It’s months since there were any Covid 19 infections there.
          So the two discovered in the last day or so are of people who imported it from Melbourne.
          We are fortunate they had symptoms and went & got tested.
          So now they and the contacts have bene isolated.

          28

          • #

            Jo has used that argument? News to me. Good luck finding a quote from me where I used an argument like Morrison did. He claimed that if an obvious truth was not spoken in a particular forum it was a reason to do the opposite. Cherry picked “medical non-advice”.

            The osmotic pressure analogy sounds nice but doesn’t work because of the exponential potential. Each infection leaked into a state could be a superspreader which sparks exponential growth and can only be stopped with a statewide lockdown.

            So the cost of one superspreader could be billions.

            Closing the borders would have helped the US and UK. If a nation is spending billions to lock their populace in homes, how can it possibly make economic sense to keep the borders open thus sabotaging the lockdown for the gain of a few $ and thus extending it for weeks, costing billions, and making it less effective so cases are higher when it is stopped?

            43

          • #
            Belinda

            Population of Wodonga in 2020, 43,400 people.

            20

      • #
        yarpos

        Didnt actually make a case for anything , just blurted out some factoids.

        12

    • #
      robert rosicka

      Seems like Jo has used that argument frequently

      Peter how many hundreds of millions of times have we told you not to exaggerate?

      91

    • #
      Gerry

      Peter, do you think that the residents of the towers in Kensington and Flemington and the suburbs of Broadmeadows and Craigeburn etc went to the BLM rallies ? There is very little chance of that.

      Brunswick West yes, but not the vast majority in those lockdown postcodes …….

      22

      • #
        bobl

        The problem is that you have 9 towers with a shared air supply in the Victorian Winter. This is an environment a lot like NYC and frankly it would only take ONE BLM attendee in each tower to infect the lot.

        Jo, you are missing a big point I’ve been trying to make for months. The science is clear (You published it) that social distancing of over 30m OR MORE is required in environments where microdroplets propagate. Our exalted leaders are not taking stock of this science and still advising based on large droplet propagation. Victoria won’t get on top of this now until spring because social distancing is not going to work until then.

        31

        • #

          bobl, I haven’t made a single claim about the towers lockdown. Having guards at the door will stop it spreading from the towers to other suburbs.

          I hope those inside are mostly young and healthy. But if they are confined to rooms with food delivered by trained and protected professionals, it will stop any infected person shedding droplets in corridors and lifts where it could spread wildly. So the tower lockdown means possibly only their family would be exposed. I’m hoping they take out the infected people and quarantine them.

          If these are vertical cruise ships it’s worth noting that the rate of spread in the Diamond Princess declined greatly after quarantine was imposed.

          In an ideal world, as soon as one case was found in a tower we would extract everyone to a secure quarantine facility. I hope we are testing well and removing the infected.

          44

          • #
            Geoff Sherrington

            Taking the infected to a purpose-built temporary hospital at the show grounds, according to a news report today.
            Those who survive might be given a medallion as they come home. We won one for our Burmese cat Tsaii, Best in Class at Royal Melbourne.

            21

  • #
    Kevin a

    Tony Robbins
    Made a very good video. Truth About Mortality Rates | COVID-19 Facts from the Frontline
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sEbcs37aaI0

    NO Shut down:
    Japan 126 Million, 558 Deaths. No shut down.
    Thailand 69 Million, 558 deaths. No shut down.
    Belarus 9.5 Million, 112 Deaths. No Shut down.

    112

    • #
      crakar24

      No shutdown in Japan…..remind me again who the 100 meter Olympic final, oh thats right they were canned

      25

      • #
        MudCrab

        A few years back I was down pub while the 100m final was being run. Everyone was very excited, cause, OLYMPICS.

        “I love the Olympics! They are so exciting!”

        The race was held. Some people ran really fast in a straight line. Hey, if you can do ONE thing really well then good on you.

        “That was so exciting. I love the 100m final!”

        “Who came second?” I asked.

        “huh? Ummm…”

        “You just watched it. It was 30 seconds ago. That was technically the second fastest person in the world.”

        Face it, kiddies, the Olympics is pretty flashing lights and a charity fortnight for minority sports. No one outside the sports involved actually care or remember what happened.

        AND…

        The 2020 Olympics was cancelled. Lockdown or lack of Lockdown in Japan had little to do with it. Your counter argument is flawed. Either you argue that WuFlu is very scary and dangerous, which means you basically believe the Olympics should have been cancelled. Or you are going to argue that the Olympics should have been held, which basically means you don’t think WuFlu is very scary and Japan handled it rationally.

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          @Kevin a.

          I didn’t realize this was posted twice. My answer again — which some people won’t like, no matter how I say it:

          Sigh. Levitt is using the wrong tools to analyze this.

          Firstly, he’s a data specialist complaining that we don’t have good data. This is true but self-evident. Here in the real world, we had to make decisions when we did. With exponential growth we have to make decisions based on what we have, not what we’d like to have, after 130,000 people died. The US made all those decisions far too late (obviously in hindsight, the borders should have been shut in Feb). So turning up even later to say that we don’t have good enough data to make the decision is being wrong, late, and missing the point.)

          Secondly, his main argument apparently is that it’s OK to kill old people and not-very-healthy people is tedious and uncompassionate. The way society acts, votes, and spends shows that most people do value healthcare, attempts to save the old and vulnerable and the idea that all lives are valuable. Why would we ask young men to risk their lives in war to protect a nation that won’t look after them (or their parents and grandparents) when they are 60+?

          Thirdly, his data is wrong. The average age on the Diamond Princess was 58. A third of the people on that boat were young employees. That was easy to look up and published at least 6 weeks before this interview. It’s only one minor point, but for a guy with only data as an argument, why not at least be accurate?

          Forthly, he is unaware that Flu stats are wildly inflated and include a modeled “guesstimate” of a “burden” that includes every case of pnumonia (no matter the virus), that doctors on the front line in every continent on Earth all say that “this is not the flu”. Death Certificates agree with the doctors. Hardly anyone dies of the flu as a primary cause.

          Fifthly the excess deaths in major centres like NY and London are vastly higher than the official Covid deaths. Hence while some cases are marked up as Covid that shouldn’t be, there are far more cases of heart attacks and strokes that were never diagnosed as covid. These excess spikes did not happen in lockdown cities where covid deaths were not also high, showing that the lockdowns alone did not cause excess deaths.

          Levitt, sadly is a reminder that smart guys with nobel prizes who comment outside their field can be correct in many minor points, but still get the big picture wrong.

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          yarpos

          he was actually only pointing out the fallacy of Japan not having a shutdown, you extensive post telling him his argument is flawed is just a product of your own imagination. Nice straw man though.

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    John Watt

    Finally Scomo , the Mexican premiers and the know-all glitterati presenters on Sky News might start treating Ms Palaszczuk with some respect. Talk about a bunch of whining ingnoramae. But the footy has started so everything is good, eh Scomo!

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    David Maddison

    This will never end until 1) herd immunity is established and it won’t be with endless lockdowns, 2) a vaccine is produced but that is very unlikely in any reasonable time or it may not be possible at all or 3) there is a proper clinical trial of the *exact* protocol published by Zelenko and seemingly effective against Stage 1 of the disease before it becomes lethal in Stage 2, meanwhile even without a clinical trial result let willing doctors and patients use it as he has done on around 700 patients as there is nothing to lose.

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      Peter C

      We discussed the Doherty Institute ASCOT trial of hydroxychloroquine a few days ago.
      I have now read that the trial is to use a Bayesian protocol. I take that to mean that they can change the parameters as they wish depending on preliminary results. That does not sound good for the integrity of the results.
      https://www.ascot-trial.edu.au/blogs/news/the-covid-19-treatment-trials-that-learn-as-they-go-1

      Their webpage currently says: 0 patients enrolled in trial, 0 patients randomised, 23 sites activated.

      Our principal trail has not enrolled ANY PATIENTS, two months after it started.

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      David-of-Cooyal-in-Oz

      G’day David,
      Do you have any ideas on how to get the message through? I’ve written to my parliamentary representatives at state and federal levels, I’ve written to a couple of newspapers and the ABC, and I’ve even written directly to the Prime Minister, all with the universal result: silence.
      By the time I next get a chance to vote the b’s out we could all be dead.
      Cheers
      Dave B

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      • #
        David Maddison

        Hi David, since our politicians have no clue and don’t care, I think we have little hope. However, I do plan to write to the federal health minister. The problem is that all his advisers are likely to be Deep State and anti-Trump therefore they will be against HCQ use and clinical trials as per the published Zelenko protocol.

        If only Trump had said NOT to use HCQ/zinc people would be falling over themselves to use it and the pandemic would likely be under control.

        The exact Zelenko protocol needs to be trialled, not the deliberately sabotaged versions of trials so far (too high a dose, no zinc, too late, disease progressed to lethal Stage 2). Sabotaged to prove “orange man bad”. Why is it so hard, especially as the treatment is essentially harmless?

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          Bill In Oz

          Definitely a big pity that Trump ever opened his mouth on medical issues like Covid 19 or this drug.
          It just politcised a major infectious disease medical issue.
          I’m glad that this has not happened so far in Oz.

          PS This drug is NOT banned for use with Covid 19 patients here. It is simply bot on the list of drugs approved for it.
          But it can be used if a doctor is willing to write the script.

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            Analitik

            I’m puzzled by the red thumbs for your post.

            Are they disagreeing with HCQ as a treatment, that Trump shouldn’t have mentioned HCQ or that CoViD-19 hasn’t been politicized?

            I pretty much agree with you given how Trump cannot express his opinions in a manner that doesn’t inflame lefties – his actual opinion was sound IMO but the typically bombastic manner in which he declared it to be a potential game changer was bound to provoke the woke.

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      Bill In Oz

      Herd immunity does NOT exist David.
      Go read this study from the Spanish experience.Very sobering indeed.
      https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-53315983

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        Carl

        Antibodies aren’t the only defense our immune system has against viruses. Often we stop a virus from taken hold before it gets to the stage where we develop an antibody. The innate immune system can defeat viruses without antibodies.

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      yarpos

      or the virus fades away as other have done

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    David Maddison

    Just to clarify my comments about the Zelenko protocol. In Australia it is illegal for doctors to prescribe HCQ for C-19. HCQ is one part of his treatment. Since it is such an incredibly safe drug with wide clinical experience and it’s cheap and not hard to manufacture, it should be permitted for use for doctors and patients so willing. It is for Stage 1 of the disease, and even on suspicion of the disease before test results are returned, as per his stated protocol. It must be administered before the lethal Stage 2 phase is entered.

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      Australia has very little supply of HCQ.

      But you are right, the socialist masters of our drug supply do not give doctors much freedom.

      It’s remarkable that no proper study has been done yet.

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        Lucky

        Stock of HCQ- I suggest there is plenty but in the private hands of medics and pharmacies and used (quietly) according to their judgement.
        The Australian Border Force are inspecting to ensure that HCQ is not imported privately.

        Socialist masters- yes it now cannot be prescribed by GPs, can it be prescribed by specialists? Now HCQ is effective up to about five days of serious symptoms, by the time the patient gets a specialist appointment it could be too late. Well, too late for the patient, but good timing for the socialist masters who will say, “It does not work”.

        No proper study- not a surprise at all as it is necessary to prove it does not work, studies are designed to fail:
        -doses of HCQ are at poison levels,
        -patients are not included in the studies until too far gone as they need to be hospitalized, and
        -no critical supplements are used such as zinc, AZ, and etc.

        All this is widely known. Any treatment must be stopped if it interferes with the use of (a non-existent) profitable vaccine, ‘see the light at the end of the tunnel’.
        This Gilead RDV, just got a massive order, can be shown to work by stretching statistics. With data on small samples, there is the Oxford wonder drug (an antiviral) that works, marginally, on late stage infection but there is an Australian drug (MSB) that works better. No publicity.

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        • #

          Re HCQ supply.

          In March a friend who works in an Australia ICU with covid patients told me they could not get any doses of HCQ for the staff to protect them or to try to prophylactic use. The small supply we have was already needed for lupus and others and was not going to be offered at all here.

          I think Clive Palmer bought a batch to donate. Don’t know what happened to that.

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        • #
          yarpos

          Not sure where this plenty resides, it would be comfortimg to know.

          My mother in law needs this stuff as part of her rheumatoid arthritis regime , and sourcing is becoming a problem.

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  • #
    PeterS

    Lockdowns were never meant to solve the pandemic issue. The reasons for the lockdowns was to give us time to prepare for the spike in cases at hospitals, and to get our act together to clean ourselves up and protect ourselves as best as possible once the lockdowns are relaxed. Once the lockdowns are relaxed it was inevitable that cases will increase. The amount of increase is dependent on how well we stick to the appropriate procedures to clean and protect ourselves. The current round of lockdowns in Victoria may or may not be an overreaction. That’s hard to determine. Anyone who believes that lockdowns will eventually kill off the virus is dreaming. If it were true then why are there so many groups throughout the world trying to develop a vaccine?

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      greggg

      The big answer to your question is MONEY. Much more money than anti-virals could ever make.

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        PeterS

        “Lockdowns were never meant to solve the pandemic issue.”

        That may be what they said but the path to “controlling the hospital curve” is the same as the path to solving the pandemic. Lockdowns are meant to solve the pandemic too.

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          Carl

          That’s not what the politicians said at first. They said it was for the hospital curve but later drifted into elimination of the virus. They just didn’t stop to think of the costs and consequences, partly because they turned control over to medical advisers who can’t look at the big picture.

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          • #

            I think most medical advisors were absorbed with the 1918 Spanish Flu plan. Eliminating the virus was either not thought possible or they felt it was too ambitious to announce that. Only Baker from NZ was ambitious enough to call it.

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            • #
              yarpos

              gee I wonder why they thought it possible in NZ? hardly a practical example for most anywhere else

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    WXcycles

    Greg Sheridan on the Victorian Government’s Four Big Mistakes:

    Isn’t this 2020-esque ‘option’ to refuse testing during a global pandemic kind of a mistake too? I don’t think anyone would have had the hide or nerve to try that @rap on during the 1918 – 1919 pandemic, but they can now get away with it sans all responsibility or culpability? What insanity, that ‘option’ is making it mighty hard to feel sorry for their economic double-whammy, and other several self-harming actions at this point.

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      Lucky

      Testing gives no useful information. A positive result has no credibility, the victim gets no treatment as the one effective medication is illegal in Australia, if the victim does not have the virus they will be arrested and sent to indoor confinement where they are now likely to catch it from others, no treatment is given, they may recover if under 70 and if not sent under a ventilator, or they may not. Resistance to compulsory testing is therefore justified.

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        Bill In Oz

        Uninformed ignorant nonsense Lucky.
        Where do you live so we can comment on the state of Covid in your benighted nation ?

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        • #
          yarpos

          How can you possibly say that when you dont even know, as shown by your question, where the comment is from. Why attack first? why not just ask?

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  • #
    Rob Kennedy

    “The Great Reset” is in operation. All part of the plan. (And the plan is in plain sight – https://www.weforum.org/great-reset/about)
    https://www.henrymakow.com/2020/07/Engdahl-Pandemic-Reset-Levels-West-With-Third-World.html
    This may cause cognitive dissonance for some, but if you want to keep your hopes up for a return to normal be prepared for a disappointment.
    See how compliant Scott Morrison was in accepting this economic madness when he was firmly against border closures.
    The WEF claim to have 420 “Hubs and 11,000 “Shapers & alumni” beavering away around the globe on the Great Reset – 7 Hubs are shown on the map in Australia. Maybe some of you know a few Shapers?

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    Rob Kennedy

    On June 3 WEF chairman Klaus Schwab released a video announcing the annual theme for 2021, The Great Reset. It seems to be nothing less than promoting a global agenda of restructuring the world economy along very specific lines, not surprisingly much like that advocated by the IPCC, by Greta from Sweden and her corporate friends such as Al Gore or Blackwater’s Larry Fink.

    Interesting is that WEF spokespeople frame the “reset” of the world economy in the context of the coronavirus and the ensuing collapse of the world industrial economy. The WEF website states, “There are many reasons to pursue a Great Reset, but the most urgent is COVID-19.” So the Great Reset of the global economy flows from covid19 and the “opportunity” it presents.

    From: https://www.globalresearch.ca/davos-great-reset/5715515

    Where people resisted the Climate Change hoax they have surrendered to the pandemic. The objectives are exactly the same. Of course this will not worry some. (Kevin Rudd has lost all fear of rising sea levels. He seems happy enough.)

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    • #
      David Maddison

      It’s frightening how easily people have rolled over and given up what few freedoms we had left.

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      Bill In Oz

      It’s ALL a horrendous conspiracy David !
      SARC !

      011

      • #
        Rob Kennedy

        But it is not a conspiracy. Conspiracies are secret plans by groups to do something unlawful or harmful. These plans are not secret. They have been published for anyone to see. They evem do wonderful videos for those who don’t like to read. Definitely not a conspiracy.

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        yarpos

        thats not what he said, he made an observation that is clearly happening if you have your eyes and ears open to anything but your own dogma

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          Bill In Oz

          Yes there is a conspiracy,
          It’s the PDC – the “Pandemic Denier Conspiracy” !
          Lots of paid up members here on Jo’s blog.
          Infested with them in fact.
          We are fortunate that none of our governments in Oz have taken any notice of the PDC mob.
          Nor the vast majority of the people.

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    Rob Kennedy

    Can’t say I’m a fan of Alan Jones but this broadcast needs to be given attention.
    https://www.skynews.com.au/details/_6169837164001
    He quotes Donald A Henderson (he is attributed with eradicating smallpox [?]) who in 2006 when advising President Bush about the swine flu epidemic said this:

    “Experience has shown that communities faced with epidemics, or other adverse events respond best and with least anxiety when the normal social functioning of the community is least disrupted.”

    Meanwhile in Tokyo: https://asia.nikkei.com/Editor-s-Picks/Interview/Tokyo-governor-says-lockdown-in-Japan-is-impossible

    TOKYO — Japanese law makes it “impossible” to impose a forced shutdown in Tokyo as seen in other global cities such as New York or Paris, Tokyo Gov. Yuriko Koike told the Nikkei Asian Review.

    “Because Japan’s law puts emphasis on protecting personal rights, a lockdown is impossible,” Koike said in an interview on Friday, adding that she can ask for “no more than voluntary restraint.” Earlier in the day, she again urged the public to stay home at the weekend.

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    bradd

    A few other factors to add:

    There are turf wars in the Victorian Labor government, notably between Health and Police ministers. This was behind the government’s initially refusing ADF help, then accepting, but once again refusing, all in the space of 24 hours.

    Andrews has no absolutely experience outside the political realm. He went straight from University into the Labor party. He is surrounded by over 40 political advisors, Labor party operatives on the public payroll. He is a political operator who has never had contact with the ‘man on the street’. Apart from his advisors, he listens only to the most militant union leaders.

    The Chief Medical Officer has little standing. He reports to an Undersecretary, with a Secretary and a Minister also between him and the Premier. Even so he is politicised. In May he was the chief author on a paper in Medical journal of Australia. The subject? Greenhouse gas emissions from Victorian hospitals! His assistant Secretary also has Green Left credentials and has compared Captain Cook to a global pandemic virus.

    Labor has for decades encouraged the tribalisation of society. For some of these tribes, custom and religion trumps Australian law every time. It appears that these western Melbourne tribes have rejected any advice with regards to the pandemic.

    This is at its worst in the high rise housing estates. These buildings are now severely overcrowded; anyone getting a flat invites extended family and friends to move in.

    More than 90 cases are now associated with one school. The name of the school: Al-Taqwa.

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      Bill In Oz

      That is good information Bradd.
      Are there any sources we can explore for more like this ?

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      Graeme#4

      Somebody in The Australian this morning wondered how Brett Sutton, Victoria’s Chief Medical Offficer, found time to author a Climate Change paper in the middle of his state’s major health issues.

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      • #
        yarpos

        Bit like Annalise Van Diemen focussing on Capt Cook and indigenous issues at the same time. At least Sutton could claim report lead time, Van Diemen was doing it on Twitter. What an inspiring team.

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  • #
    ImranCan

    If ever there was a moment to realise the folly of the eradication strategy, this is it. Quite simply : THIS VIRUS CANNOT BE ERADICATED. And you will utterly impoverish yourselves in some vain attempt to try and achieve that.

    Australia is rapidly becoming the poster child for what not to do. Very sad.

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      Bill In Oz

      Bull ! One state named Victoria has that ‘title’.
      ‘The other 5 states and two territories are doing very well indeed .
      And determined to ensure that things stay that way
      By having closed borders which exclude Victorians from entering by road, air or sea.
      But perhaps in your ignorance you don’t want to know that ?

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      • #
        ImranCan

        I’m not ignorant. There is no reason to throw words like that around. Australia now has a very serious problem and you need to recognise it, rather than insult anyone who points it out.

        The question I posed 3 months ago Is still very valid. Having imprisoned everyone and stopped the spread I asked ‘what now ?’. And that question remains. What is Victoria going to do in 6 weeks time ? Do you think the virus has gone ? What do you think is going to shortly happen in Sydney, Adelaide and Brisbane ? Even NZ can’t keep the virus out. If you think the idea of shutting everything down for 6 weeks – AGAIN – is ‘doing very well’, I would say wake up !!

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          Bill In Oz

          You are just another foreigner telling Australians what to do.
          We know what to say to such people.
          But it’s not allowed here.
          So a raised finger to you instead !
          We Aussies will do what we think is best
          And bugger the foreigners with their stupid advice.

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            ImranCan

            I understand why you are angry, but I don’t think that’s a great strategy. Turn away from 3 centuries of trade, global partnership and exchange of ideas, and stick your head in the sand.

            If ever there was a chance to look around and see what happening in the world, now is it. The virus is not the problem, it is the response.

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              Bill In Oz

              There are too many bloody interfering foreigners here
              Trying to destroy what Australia has achieved the past 5 months
              Well we will ignore you ignorance and your blind prejudice and determined conspiracy nonsense
              And keep going our own way
              Without your red thumb blessings’.

              [Snip]
              Crude & blunt arn’t we ?
              Yes !
              And just what is needed !

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                Rob Kennedy

                Imran, you can tell that Bill was previously a diplomat. If you are familiar with “The Wizard of Oz” I would suggest, “Pay no attention to that man behind the curtain!”
                Bill, immoderate speech is ony suitable in certain places such as Parliament House. Perhaps you were also a politician?

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          Carl

          Iran,

          [SNIP. Skip the personalized "cancel-culture" attacks. - Jo]

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          • #

            The personalized animosity in the comments is regrettable. I note Imran started this exchange with an ALL CAPS yelling absolutist statement which said that the best country in the world was a “poster child for what not to do”. Baiting?

            Most countries in the world would love to be in our shoes. Even with the bump in Victoria.

            Obviously the virus can be eradicated domestically. Trade can go on as per normal (as it is). Australia can live without holidays in Bali and we can also survive without short term tourists. Our main tourists were long stay travellers anyway, and if the world doesn’t find a covid treatment or preventative we can surely build hotels and not hospitals and make the two week quarantine cheaper and more bearable.

            Meanwhile we can wait it out — almost certainly with a few years Covid won’t be a threat. It will have evolved to be nicer, or we will have a treatment/vaccine.

            We are just avoiding using Australian bodies as the mutation-incubation test cases.

            That temporary solution appears to be incredibly popular judging by the polls.

            20

      • #
        yarpos

        more parochial nonsense, borders will open, if it exists it will come

        simple example NSW letting a plane load of VIC travellers off in Sydney unfiltered.

        11

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    Jojodogfacedboy

    My neighbor is getting burnt out being a part time healthcare aid in our local old age home. Since the Pandemic started, she has been on full time. Terrified of catching the virus and passing it on to her partner too.
    It’s been 4 months now and with this lockdown, their is no qualified healthcare aids due to needing government qualifications. Even when they hire one that’s qualified, due to everyone on medications, they also need a special qualification to administer medications which she has. She has told them she needs to get back to part time or she may quit. She told them, it is not her problem about getting new people. She just can’t keep this pace much longer.

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    • #

      Yes, I have heard many stories of personal stress and burnout from medical workers. Many quietly assessing “at what point do I resign?”. Wondering if it would be ethical to retire. Some separating from high risk partners and living in the basement or even in a hotel. Many were lying awake at night in March.

      Over 400 medical workers have died in the US.

      I know there is major stress in the business world.

      I suspect some readers here don’t realize what they are demanding of healthcare workers when they suggest we just just let this virus run, and say that “all the costs” are from our reaction to the virus. If they read medical forums and talked to nurses and doctors they would get a very different perspective.

      Medical friends were having discussions about ethics — as in — they were wondering if they were duty bound to accept the personal risk to both themselves and their loved ones. “we don’t demand fireman to run into burning buildings if they might die.”

      PS: I”m not suggesting that firemen don’t risk their lives, and nor were the docs, just that the risks here for medical staff in their 50s and up were high enough and relentlessly ongoing. Would we really expect them to keep taking that risk day after day for a year?

      The death rate among infected health care workers in the US was 0.5% when I last looked. These are working age people.

      20

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        yarpos

        ethical to retire ? seriously? sounds like an academic point that would get lost in the real world.

        sure we dont demand firefighters run into burning buildings, but we do sort of expect and they know that when they sign up. Medicos cloak themselves in how they serve and care but in reality it is for most serve and care up to a point. I dont see that as a problem really , but at some stage they start sounding hypocritical depending how the they play it.

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    AndrewWA

    Well done Australia as the initial target was to “flatten the curve” and avoid “overloading our hospital system”.
    We achieved that with a max of only 92 of >7,000 ICU beds utilised.
    Currently we have 10 ICU beds being utilised.
    There are ONLY 39 CV19 patients in hospital across Australia.

    I can’t understand why we’re not just learning to live with CV19 as it’s NOT going away soon.

    Sadly Australia has had 104 people die with CV19.
    Australia’s death rate is 4 people per million population.
    Belgium is 843; UK 652; Sweden 538; USA 402; Brazil 308; Switzerland 227; Denmark 105; Israel 37.

    On average we have ~2,000 Aussies die each year from Flu and Pneumonia.
    That’s about 80 deaths per million of pop..

    What we’re doing is total madness!
    Our governments have lost the plot!
    What has happened to common sense?
    Main Stream Media and ABC STOP spreading the panic!!!!!!
    Toughen up snowflakes!!

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      Andrew,
      I can understand your reasoning, consider though, the 100 deaths we had was during hot weather and with a full lockdown (of our medium strength sort).

      Living with the virus is a lot harder than it looks. See Brazil. See the USA. Given the way the Victorian outbreak is growing — even with quite a bit of care this is still doubling in a week. With business as usual we know it can double every three days. The exponential growth, with a 1-2 week delay in information, is what makes this a knife edge thing in terms of hospital management.

      Instead Victoria may be only 6 – 8 weeks from having no virus and then needing hardly any care / fear /borders. So the choice is a state of some fear and constant risk that things will get out of hand OR we do the hard work now (nearly finished in most states), and we get freedom when the virus is zero.

      All this is temporary. Sooner or later we will have a treatment or vaccine and / or the virus will evolve to something nicer. But in both those scenarios we are better off waiting to “catch it later”.

      With solid borders against Victoria (temporarily) almost all the other states could consider opening up.

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      • #
        Kevin a

        Tony Robbins interviews Dr. Michael Levitt, Nobel Laureate and Stanford Professor, about his extensive analysis of COVID-19 mortality rates – which have shown strict lockdowns to be an overreaction that have caused more harm than good.

        The Truth About Mortality Rates | COVID-19 Facts from the Frontline
        https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sEbcs37aaI0

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        • #

          Sigh. Levitt is using the wrong tools to analyze this.

          Firstly, he’s a data specialist complaining that we don’t have good data. This is true but self-evident. Here in the real world, we had to make decisions when we did. With exponential growth we have to make decisions based on what we have, not what we’d like to have, after 130,000 people died. The US made all those decisions far too late (obviously in hindsight, the borders should have been shut in Feb). So turning up even later to say that we don’t have good enough data to make the decision is being wrong, late, and missing the point.)

          Secondly, his main argument apparently is that it’s OK to kill old people and not-very-healthy people is tedious and uncompassionate. The way society acts, votes, and spends shows that most people do value healthcare, attempts to save the old and vulnerable and the idea that all lives are valuable. Why would we ask young men to risk their lives in war to protect a nation that won’t look after them (or their parents and grandparents) when they are 60+?

          Thirdly, his data is wrong. The average age on the Diamond Princess was 58. A third of the people on that boat were young employees. That was easy to look up and published at least 6 weeks before this interview. It’s only one minor point, but for a guy with only data as an argument, why not at least be accurate?

          Forthly, he is unaware that Flu stats are wildly inflated and include a modeled “guesstimate” of a “burden” that includes every case of pnumonia (no matter the virus), that doctors on the front line in every continent on Earth all say that “this is not the flu”. Death Certificates agree with the doctors.

          Fifthly the excess deaths in major centres like NY and London are vastly higher than the official Covid deaths. Hence while some cases are marked up as Covid that shouldn’t be, there are far more cases of heart attacks and strokes that were never diagnosed as covid. These excess spikes did not happen in lockdown cities where covid deaths were not also high, showing that the lockdowns alone did not cause excess deaths.

          Levitt, sadly is a reminder that smart guys with nobel prizes who comment outside their field can be correct in many minor points, but still get the big picture wrong.
          Jo

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        Carl

        “Sooner or later” isn’t good enough when we’re wrecking our economy right now. We’re running up hundreds of billions in debt.

        “All the other states could consider opening up” but only to each other, not to the world.

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        • #

          Sooner or later isn’t good enough when people are dying right now.

          Unfortunately this kind of reasoning isn’t going to help us.

          We have two choices for wrecking the economy.
          1. We can let the virus run scaring half the population into a house bound prison, forcing other states and nations to cut Victoria off the travel list and also killing some number of people measured in the thousands. Some people will suffer very little, but others pay with their lives or the lives of family. The economy will take less of a hit in the short term, but won’t recover fully for longer.

          Or 2. we can share the house bound prison equally for a short period and then let the economy run almost unencumbered (and hopefully pay compensation for the people who face the biggest costs).

          The most useful question is which will wreck the economy less. And which is fairer, share the burden, or let the virus decide who wins and who loses?

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      • #
        yarpos

        Why plunge straight to worst case USA and Brazil? there are many countries living with the disease right now like most of Europe where the sky is not falling.

        21

    • #
      Bill In Oz

      Andrew mostly we are doing what works.
      The Victorian government up until a few days ago, Not so much.
      The stupidity of ideology ruled there.
      But now they are scared to buggery
      And even they have pulled their finger out and are determined to stop this virus Completely.
      That by the way has always been the goal and purpose.
      but you are welcome to go to some other place where they don’t bother stopping the virus.
      The USA, Sweden & Brazil come to mind.

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      • #
        Geoff Sherrington

        It does NOT work to allow an unconstrained mob of a few thousand youngsters to while away a Saturday arvo (June 6th) when there is ample advance knowledge that this type of gathering has the potential to spread the disease.
        It looks like some of it did spread from BLM. Good luck finding the details of the tracing. Geoff S

        40

      • #
        yarpos

        Of course plunge to USA and Brazil, not the 100+ other countries in the world

        Sweden had mid range excess deaths in Europe? so?, why not talk about Belgium and France then ? doesnt suit the lock everything down argument. Go for the drama, sometimes we are no better than the MSM.

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  • #
    Jojodogfacedboy

    I find the irony of government controls and this lockdown where your starting to see mayors and politicians making more confining laws. You couldn’t even go on Crown Land without getting a fine. A trespassing fine with mayors are now using should you step where your not suppose to. Standing or protesting can now get you the same fine. Face masks are now mandatory and not wearing it properly, fine. Portable mail in fines by speed traps currently around school zones.
    Businesses are getting decimated by new mandatory laws with fines. Not being proper distance, fine.
    Is it any wonder that being at home is your only safe space…
    Forgot, they are now going to boot people out for not paying rent.

    41

    • #
      Jojodogfacedboy

      Canada wants your business…
      On top of all these labor laws and mandatory insurance and taxes.

      11

    • #
      WXcycles

      Forgot, they are now going to boot people out for not paying rent.

      Leases say you’ve agreed to pay the rent, and there’s .gov support available, far more than normal, to make sure everyone in Australia can still afford to do so, so there’s really no excuse to not be paying rent right now. However, I spoke to a property manager this morning, and she informed me that even now almost no one can be evicted, if they can prove that COVID-19 has induced a current state of poverty, which prevents them from paying the rent.

      What could be more reasonable than this?

      People who are not paying the rent just to try it on and scam landlords should definitely be evicted, and currently they still can be, and will be. So don’t try it.

      11

  • #
    Bill In Oz

    Bolsanarao, Brazil’s dopey president has tested positive for Corona 19 virus.

    [SNIP. Rise above the ill-wishes. - j].

    What a blessing for Brazil that would be !

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-07-08/brazil-president-jair-bolsonaro-positive-coronavirus-covid19/12432578

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    • #
      TomRude

      He took HCQ and is fine.

      61

    • #
      Bill In Oz

      Jo ? “Rise above ill wishes”
      Huhhhhhhhhh ?
      I wish Brazil the very, very best.!
      But Bolsanaro is incompetent and a hinderance to dealing with Covid 19.
      Brazil needs a new competent lPresident urgently.
      Since when has one man’s fate been more important than the fate of the nation ?
      If Covid does not take off stage, then maybe a coup is needed ?
      Which would be worse, one man seriously ill or a coup?
      Or perhaps the collapse of the Brazilian government as such ?

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  • #
    TomRude

    Could you publish or link to the death curve there? Thank you

    10

  • #
    Robber

    Victoria, the Uneducated State, and now the Incompetent State under Dithering Dan.
    How many strikes against Chairman Dan before he’s out?
    Strike 1 – Cedar Meats
    Strike 2 – Hotel quarantine
    Strike 3 – #BLM
    Strike 4 – Tough talk but lack of action
    Strike 5 – Overcrowded, unclean public housing estates
    Strike 6 – Bungling bureaucrats unable to run a meat raffle let alone organize efficient testing and tracing
    Strike 7 – Refusal to use ADF personnel with logistics expertise (Dan only listens to Union bosses)
    Dan, it’s time to go – YER OUT!!

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    • #
      Yonniestone

      All valid points Robber, unfortunately nothing will happen because many Victorians are so brainwashed and so politically apathetic they would still vote this muppet back in, also consider the level of corruption in this state and what would be needed to bring it down, short of a public uprising or unconstitutional federal intervention nothing can be done.

      And we don’t have the time for our own long march.

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    • #
      yarpos

      and thats only the Covid scene

      lets not forget the Lawyer X, deadly bail system, red shirts, shonky electoral expense claims, on and on but thats just politics

      21

  • #
    Analitik

    The death vs infection rate appears to have dropped in most countries over time.
    .
    Has there been any analysis as to why this ratio decreases?
    Is it because the most vulnerable portion of the population gets killed off so the virus has less serious effects on the later cases?
    Has the virus mutated to have less serious effects?
    Or are more effective treatments being developed?

    It’s becoming more and more likely that CoViD-19 will be community disease that we just need to be able to cope with, like influenza strains and malaria so this sort of understanding seems critical to me yet I have seen no studies that assess why the death vs infection rate falls away

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    • #
      Bill In Oz

      Knowledge of the virus, how it impacts the human body and how to treat it, has improved enormously since last January when the CCP first announced it’s presence in Wuhan. This has had a big impact on the death rate in some places but not others. .

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    • #

      A very good question Analytik.

      Here are the possibles:

      1. Docs are better at treating patients.

      2. The age of the infections has likely fallen as younger people risk breaking social distancing rules but older folk are staying home.

      3. Inadequate testing meant death rates in early stages were overestimated.

      4. High risk people are better at hiding away now.

      5. Virus may have mutated, but so far there is no study that shows this. Don’t know.

      6. Early high death toll may be due to raging infections in nursing homes.

      But it’s a very interesting question.

      I note that death rates may be rising now in Arizona and Texas after the usual two week lag.
      Death rates were not declining in California, and the lag means we don’t know if they will climb soon.

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      • #
        neil

        I heard a media report from the US that suggested there may have some mutation and the virus may be becoming more infectious and less deadly. From an evolutionary perspective this is logical, a dead host can’t transmit the virus to new hosts.

        This is what happened to Spanish Flu, it mutated to a less deadly virus and SARS died out because it was too deadly.

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    • #
      Kalm Keith

      Is it possible that the rate of testing may have increased, as recently in Victoria, and thus diluted the death rate?

      As an aside, would Victoria have had to go through the current “lockdown” if testing rates had not been recently ” ramped up”?

      My great fear is that the consequences of the kovid krushing for most business owners and their employees will far outstrip the damage from the virus.

      Getting bye on “funny money” for a few months may be OK but then it has to stop: those then without jobkeeper, jobseeker and the other Canberra origin acronyms will be looking for work in a community where most small businesses that are still going are on the skids.

      But we can still fall back on Social Security and we can use some of that to pay off the national debt of $48,000 per man, woman and child here in the great South Land.

      Is anyone in charge here?

      One option is to follow Japan’s lead and stop testing: then we wouldn’t have a crisis and could get back to work and be a community again.

      KK

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      • #

        Indeed testing has increased in the US, but in those states it’s woefully inadequate.

        Positivity is rising in the four worst affected states so some of the rise is the increase in testing but some of it is real.

        Test positivity is Az is a whopper 25%. Ouch.

        10

        • #
          Bill In Oz

          Not to worry Jo !
          They are Red Neck Republicans in Arizona.
          They are immune to Covid 19.
          Even all those elderly ‘Sunbelt Retirees’ from the cold northern Blue states.
          :-)

          01

    • #
      yarpos

      these viruses tend to age out and become background noise over time

      we have never found a “cure” for any of them, yet we are not (well most of us) hiding under the doona in fear of the last half a dozen occurences.

      this time could be different but it seems more likely that this will just be at the serious end of the same curve.

      we are more aware now because it seems that this is the first social media/politics fuelled virus.

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  • #
    Steve of Cornubia

    There are few certainties in life, and the current Covid pandemic seems to be defined by uncertainty, even among so-called experts.

    And yet …

    In the same fashion that the governments and media know with absolute certainty that [SNIP 18C, an ethnic group that shout that their God is Superior] as they stab people are NOT terrorists but mentally ill – and they know this within milliseconds of each attack – they also know with 100% certainty, no shred of doubt, that the resurgence of Covid has absolutely NO connection with the recent demonstrations.

    It’s almost like the Left has total control of what the public is told. Surely not?

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  • #
    STJOHNOFGRAFTON

    “How much did the BLM rallies matter? We don’t know”.

    Bull! We do know. BLM were a bad example to the rest of us on the perfidy of the Andrews government and their appeasement of the Marxist lead and Soros funded global political agenda. A government which applies partisan rules condemns its good citizens to the futile and exasperating outcomes of poor and irresponsible leadership.

    40

  • #
    Rocket Rod

    A Doctor is explaining the pandemic to a coma patient who just woke up…
    Dr: “They shut down the world because of a worldwide pandemic.”
    Patient: “OMG! How many people are infected?”
    Dr : “About 11 Million.”
    Patient: “OMG! 11 million people died?”
    Dr: “No, only 500 thousand… Kind of.”
    Patient: “What do you mean ‘kind of’?”
    Dr: “Well… they keep halving the number of deaths due to double counting, inaccurate tests and mislabeled death certificates. Also, most of the people that die are elderly and dying of other things. There are also people who died because of incorrect ventilator use and other treatments because no-one really understands the virus.”
    Patient: “I don’t get it. So how many died from ONLY the virus… like literally dropped dead in the street?”
    Dr: “No-one. Only in hospitals and nursing homes”
    Patient: “I don’t get it.”
    Dr: “Neither do I, it’s a very confusing time.”
    Patient: “So they cured the other 11 million people then?”
    Dr: “No, most didn’t have any symptoms and in fact they didn’t even know they had it.”
    Patient: “I don’t get it.”
    Dr: “Neither do I.”
    Patient: “It doesn’t sound very deadly. If the other 11 million people didn’t have symptoms then how do they even know they had the virus?”
    Dr: “They were tested.”
    Patient: “But you just said that the tests are inaccurate.”
    Dr: “They are. No-one has isolated the virus so the tests don’t really test for that.”
    Patient: “I don’t get it.”
    Dr: “Neither do I.”
    Patient: “Ok. So when will this pandemic be over?”
    Dr: “When they develop a vaccine to stop the virus.”
    Patient: “The virus that nobody gets or dies from.”

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  • #
    Kevin a

    D.C. Health Official: No New Cases of Coronavirus Linked to Protests.
    The woman in charge of health for the District of Columbia said at a press conference Monday that there have been no new cases of the coronavirus linked to large anti-police protests in the nation’s capital.

    Only Trump rallies will spread Covid, Socialist rallies seem OK?

    https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2020/07/07/d-c-health-official-no-new-cases-coronavirus-linked-protests/

    40

  • #
    OriginalSteve

    So…question :

    How dangerous is the current virus in Australia?

    I notice the govt is quick to invoke a boogeyman, which flies in the face of the medical advice….

    https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2020-05-31/new-coronavirus-losing-potency-top-italian-doctor-says

    “ROME (Reuters) – The new coronavirus is losing its potency and has become much less lethal, a senior Italian doctor said on Sunday.

    “”In reality, the virus clinically no longer exists in Italy,” said Alberto Zangrillo, the head of the San Raffaele Hospital in Milan in the northern region of Lombardy, which has borne the brunt of Italy’s coronavirus contagion.

    “Zangrillo said some experts were too alarmist about the prospect of a second wave of infections and politicians needed to take into account the new reality.

    “”We’ve got to get back to being a normal country,” he said. “Someone has to take responsibility for terrorizing the country.”

    “The government urged caution, saying it was far too soon to claim victory.

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  • #
    MudCrab

    Okay, let us put away our text books and deal with the real world.

    There is no safe.

    Also your parents put toys under the tree, not Father Christmas.

    Safe is a lazy word we use because it gives us a nice binary answer. Light Green? Safe. Light Red? Danger.

    Problem is that nothing is ever completely safe. You cannot wrap someone in cotton wool because then they might choke on the wool. So if you actually have a professional obligation into making things safe – as opposed to just excitedly mentioning text book examples – then the mind set you are actively instructed to use is not “How can I make this safe?” but “How can I minimalise the risks?”

    “Wait!” you say, “You said mimimalise. Surely you mean remove?”

    Here comes the next point of ‘Engineering Safety’ (again that lazy word ‘Safe’ because everyone thinks they know what it means. Irony.) Risks are reduced As Far As Is Reasonably Practical. As Far As Is Reasonably Practical. Those playing at home may have seen me use that before and if you do enough research you will know that, in Australia at least, this is what the laws are based around.

    If something was to go wrong on a platform or system you were responsible for and you were dragged in front of the judge you would have to prove to them that you did everything responsibly practical to prevent the incident from occurring. Say you dug a pit and Little Dan fell into it. The prosecution will ask why there was no safety rail surrounding the pit. You may answer that you didn’t think it was necessary, and that answer would not be good enough. The question is not ‘did you feel it was necessary’, but ‘could you have installed a safety rail?’

    Now you could answer, to continue the example, that the ground was marshy and any rail would sink into the soft soil after a week and become useless. That would be reasonable, but then you would have to explain what else you had done to prevent people from entering the area and if you didn’t have a good answer then the court was going to tear you a new one.

    Now the other part of this is that why you are expected to protect people from stupidity – ie you need a fence AND a sign cause some people will ignore the sign – you are not expected to protect against sustained pig headedness. If you have a locked panel covering live electrical equipment and someone goes to the effort of cutting the padlock off and starts licking the copper bus bars then you are off the hook. You did everything that was Reasonably Practical to prevent someone getting amps on their tongue and they made a significant effort to ignore you.

    The other side of Reasonably Practical is factoring in the results. For example something that was nearly guaranteed to send you to hospital – falling 3m – requires more analysis than something that you might not even notice as an incident – 200mm drop. You also consider the chances of these events happening in ratio to their effects. If you always cut your hand when opening a door because you made the handle out of razor blades that would be bad, even if the cuts were only surface level. It is all relative and it all comes under the banner of As Far As Is Reasonably Practical.

    Again, there is NO SAFE. There is only how you react to reduce the risks to below background, and even then you have to justify the background.

    And that, kids, is why any Covid response needs to be justified in context of the overall results based on the core assumption that what you are really doing is changing Australian Society.

    Is locking down one of Australia’s largest cities Reasonably Practical? Or are we just playing with petri dishes from the safety of our existing Work From Home environments?

    51

    • #
      yarpos

      not really a valid argument despite relegating us to kiddies

      nice convenient black and white arguments about low level risk management fall apart pretty quickly when scaled up and related to a personal subjective notion of safety.

      11

  • #
    el gordo

    Solar Forcing

    ‘Sunlight was found to inactivate severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), which causes coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) in a new controlled environment assessment.

    ‘Michael Schuit from the National Biodefense Analysis and Countermeasures Center, led a team of investigators in a study looking at the effect of simulated sunlight, relative humidity, and suspension matrix on the stability of SARS-CoV-2 in aerosols.

    ‘Both simulated sunlight and matrix significantly affected the decay rate of the virus, according to the investigators. Their findings were published in The Journal of Infectious Diseases.’

    Contagionlive.com

    10

  • #
    neil

    Remember back in March at a comrade Dan, it’s all about me, China virus media grandstand a journo asked why Victoria wasn’t following federal guidelines, chairman Andrews answered “In Victoria we do thing our own way”. And this week when asked how the housing tower outbreak started his answer “I’m not here to talk about that” then he went on to blame “Victorians”. No mention of BLM protest, no taking responsibility. Classic narcissist nothing is ever his fault, it’s always someone else’s fault. So now we are back in lock down not because comrade Dan failed us, but because we Victorian’s failed him.

    The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result?

    I guess we know where comrade Dans head is at.

    60

  • #
    Robber

    “A shortage of public health professionals in the Victorian bureaucracy is being blamed for the second wave of COVID-19 cases sweeping Melbourne, with a lack of contact tracers and an inability to train them at scale leaving the state more vulnerable than if the transmissions had occurred in NSW.”
    There is an underlying issue with the capability of the Victorian health system — it is not up to it,” one national COVID source said.

    10

    • #
      yarpos

      This puzzles me. I probably do not understand all that is involved, however, contact tracing seem to me to be a fairly generic administrative/investigative skill that any number of intelligent people could execute. We are told we have many unemployed/under utilised people. Surely at least a % of these could be applied to contact tracing.

      01

  • #
    Robber

    Greg Sheridan in The Australian:
    “If, as it is only reasonable to believe, the absolute fiasco of the Melbourne hotel quarantine mismanagement is the main cause for the COVID-19 outbreak and the subsequent lockdown, then it is the most damaging state ­government failure in modern Australian history.”
    So which minister has accepted direct responsibility for it? Answer: none.
    The Victorian government has not even told us which minister was chiefly responsible for deciding to use untrained security guards. Instead, it established a ­judicial inquiry that it exploits to say it has no ­responsibility to provide any public information. Yet the inquiry report is months away.
    Dictator Dan says the buck stops with him, but he refuses to answer any questions. That’s not democracy.

    30

  • #
    yarpos

    Just looking at the Covid Daily update site provided by the VIC Govt

    The headline numbers it blasts out is 2942 “cases”. In reality there are 860 active cases in Victoria, a number they avoid talking about at all in what is supposed to be a daily update. 2942 is a total historic number with most of those people now well again. The site seems more aimed at wiping up anxiety and justifying their actions.

    https://www.dhhs.vic.gov.au/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-update

    For those interested , this site provides a good breakdown of numbers across Australia, including regions.

    https://covidlive.com.au/states-and-territories

    10

    • #
      Bill In Oz

      That is yesterday’s up date for the the 8th of July.
      Today’s test results for Victoria will be released later this morning.

      02

      • #
        Bill In Oz

        164 more new infections today Thursday the 9th of July.
        Many more new cases associated with Al Taqwa College in outer northern suburbs.

        01

        • #
          Bill In Oz

          I write about what I THINK IS IMPORTANT.
          What you ‘think’ is important is irrelevant to me.

          Do I need to be blunt again Yerpos ?
          :-)

          02

      • #
        yarpos

        Do you actually read Bill? the absolute numbers are not the topic of the comment

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  • #
    Forrest Gardener

    One issue which doesn’t seem to be getting much consideration is what countries like Italy, France, Spain and the UK have done to reduce infection rates. All of them are seeing a decline in infections and deaths so what is the secret?

    I’m yet to see anybody get anything out of China about their miraculous almost total eradication of infections.

    30

  • #
    yarpos

    I wonder if we will see this sort of differentiation in Oz as well? It already seems so.

    https://twitter.com/steve_hanke/status/1278753051650568192

    Daniel Andrews left wing leadership has resulted in national worse case outcomes, which seems to follow the US trend of Democrat States have worse case outcomes.

    31

  • #
    Choroin

    I’ve been saying for years that the rest of Oz should quarantine Melbourne.
    Hope it’s a ‘new normal’ :)

    10

  • #
    Graeme No.3

    I am surprised it got through in the first place. I was writing “tongue in cheek” to illustrate the current hysteria (or perhaps that should be hysterias) where anything that isn’t entirely compliant with the current one is denounced and “disappeared” from public notice (in case they approve).
    As for the reference to witches this was a little esoteric unless you know that “witches” were blamed for bad weather, of which there was plenty in The Little Ice Age. Any problem would be blamed on a witch, preferably an older widow (no chance of a sympathy vote), and preferably with an inheritance. Torture would result in a confession. My thought is that eventually as the Left turn very ugly and try to force their ideology on us (as in the Vegan farm invasions) that eventually they will have to be resisted with force.

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  • #
    Steve S

    The left will ultimately eat themselves, and sadly will come to understand
    “Then they came for me, and there was no one left to speak for me”

    41

  • #
    MP

    AD, every comment written is “ad hominem” from the top of the thread down.
    you read the work, the descriptive is accurate.

    11

  • #
    yarpos

    I wonder what this is about? its obviously incorrect, weird

    11