JoNova

A science presenter, writer, speaker & former TV host; author of The Skeptic's Handbook (over 200,000 copies distributed & available in 15 languages).


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Be afraid! Trapped atmospheric waves on the rise. Extreme heatwaves to come.

There are waves piling on waves in the weather.

A new press release tells us that there have been an “exceptional” number of weather extremes in summer.

Weather extremes in the summer — such as the record heat wave in the United States that hit corn farmers and worsened wildfires in 2012 — have reached an exceptional number in the last ten years. Human-made global warming can explain a gradual increase in periods of severe heat, but the observed change in the magnitude and duration of some events is not so easily explained.

Heatwaves lend themselves to headlines. Not only are they scary, but for climate researchers at a loose end, there are 1,000 flavors of wave to comb through. Is that a 3 day, 4 day or 7 day wave you are interested in? Is the cut-off 40C, 38C, 35C or a flexible percentile anomaly above the monthly average? Is it a statewide average, a national record, or a hot week in Houston? Shall we analyze that in seasons, by months, years, or part thereof? The combinations and permutations can keep a supercomputer up late at night. There’s a whole field of cherry trees ripe for the plucking.

It used to be that only long term trends mattered. Now, if something is “linked” to a “cluster” of noisy events over the last 13 years, go tell the world — why not?

Significance (the PNAS term for an abstract of the abstract)

The recent decade has seen an exceptional number of boreal summer weather extremes, some causing massive damage to society. There is a strong scientific debate about the underlying causes of these events. We show that high-amplitude quasi-stationary Rossby waves, associated with resonance circulation regimes, lead to persistent surface weather conditions and therefore to midlatitude synchronization of extreme heat and rainfall events. Since the onset of rapid Arctic amplification around 2000, a cluster of resonance circulation regimes is observed involving wave numbers 7 and 8. This has resulted in a statistically significant increase in the frequency of high-amplitude quasi-stationary waves with these wave numbers. Our findings provide important insights regarding the link between Arctic changes and midlatitude extremes.

Things are getting desperate for the long term climate forecasters when they start listing individual weather events one by one. This is tea-leaf reading from the dregs of the last 3 decades.

Are we adding “winter-like” temperature spells during summer to heat-wave events anywhere in the Northern Hemisphere? That can’t be right…

Fig 2 (See caption below. I split the wide figure)

It didn’t seem to me that heatwaves got worse in the last decade. But if history starts in 1980 I guess it’s quite possible. The graph below is next to the list above, of  “resonance months”.

Fig. 2. Number of July and August resonance months identified by Petoukhov et al. (16) for  eight 4-y periods from 1980 to 2011. Text in the gray bars indicates the actual months with, in brackets, the wave number involved in resonance, and the table on the left lists the associated extreme weather events (adapted from ref. 16). The red line plots the difference of surface warming in the Arctic (north of 65°N) and in the rest of the Northern Hemisphere (south of 65°N), illustrating the much more rapid surface warming in the Arctic since 2000.

Resonance months refers to a particular effect in Rossby waves:

An important part of the global air motion in the mid-latitudes normally takes the form of waves wandering around the globe, called Rossby Waves. When they swing north, they suck warm air from the tropics to Europe, Russia, or the US; and when they swing south, they do the same thing with cold air from the Arctic. However, the study shows that in periods with extreme weather, some of these waves become virtually stalled and greatly amplified.

“Behind this, there is a subtle resonance mechanism that traps waves in the mid-latitudes and amplifies them strongly,” says Stefan Rahmstorf, co-author of the study to be published in the Proceedings of the US National Academy of Sciences (PNAS).

How significant would the latest resonant months trend be in a graph that includes life before 1979?  Hard to say.

If resonance months and heatwaves are connected…

Looks like it’s time to panic.

This figure shows the annual values of the U.S. Heat Wave Index from 1895 to 2013. These data cover the contiguous 48 states. Interpretation: An index value of 0.2 (for example) could mean that 20 percent of the country experienced one heat wave, 10 percent of the country experienced two heat waves, or some other combination of frequency and area resulted in this value.Data source: Kunkel, 2014 5

Source: EPA

 

[ScienceDaily]

 REFERENCE

Dim Coumou, Vladimir Petoukhov, Stefan Rahmstorf, Stefan Petri, and Hans Joachim Schellnhuber. Quasi-resonant circulation regimes and hemispheric synchronization of extreme weather in boreal summer. PNAS, August 11, 2014 DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1412797111 [Free access, and worth it.]

Other posts on   and .

Get Headlines! How to find a heatwave in five easy stepsEight reasons the Australian heatwave is not “climate change”

 

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94 comments to Be afraid! Trapped atmospheric waves on the rise. Extreme heatwaves to come.

  • #

    This is all part of a net cooling process because the larger meridional excursions in the jet stream tracks since around 2000 increased total global cloudiness and reduce energy into the oceans.

    This is how the system works:

    http://www.newclimatemodel.com/new-climate-model/


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    • #
      OriginalSteve

      Me thinks it rates right up there with a fly flappig its wingings in Honk Kong causing the moon to shift out of orbit, causing your great aunts curtains to fade, dogs to howl at the moon…..or something,…..

      Next you know they will be saying the warming is hiding in the oceans….

      Harf harf!


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    • #
      OriginalSteve

      Steven – I wasn’t having a pop at your comment BTW….rather your comment triggered a thought about the lunacy of the whoel CAGW nonsense…


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  • #
    jimbrock

    Wow! Big excursion in the early ’30′s. It’s my fault, born in 1930!


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    • #
      Truthseeker

      No, it was the climatologists saying that we need to cover the Arctic in soot to melt the ice.

      This was to offset “global cooling” in the 1970′s.


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      • #
        Hasbeen

        When ever the so called climate scientists spruik about something it immediately makes me think of that great poem, “”We’ll all be rooned,” said Hanrahan”.

        They always have some new idea for a research grant, & it always is to save us from being “rooned”


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    • #
      OriginalSteve

      Maurice Newman weighs in – calls for focus on Global Cooling

      Calls CAGW “Complete crap” & likens it to primitive religion

      Slam dunk…..

      http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/climate-change-measures-like-primitive-civilisations-offering-up-sacrifices-to-appease-the-gods-says-maurice-newman-20140814-3do0v.html

      The Abbott government’s chief business adviser says too much time has been spent focusing on global warming and as a result Australians are “ill prepared” to deal with the prospect of global cooling.

      Maurice Newman, who has been vocal in his climate change scepticism, has attacked governments, including the former Labor government, for pursuing “green gesture politics” by introducing carbon price signals in an opinion piece for the Murdoch-owned News Corp publication The Australian.

      He likened the measures to “primitive civilisations offering up sacrifices to appease the gods”.


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      • #
        OriginalSteve

        Sorry…correction….misread article….Abbott said it was “absolute crap”, not Newman.

        I also like this quote from the baove article:

        “But he fears the “political establishment” is deaf to risks of global cooling because “having made science a religion, it bravely persists with its global warming narrative, ignoring at its peril and ours, the clear warnings being given by Mother Nature”.”


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        • #
          Unmentionable

          ” … Greens MP Adam Bandt says Maurice Newman’s comments border on “deranged” and has called on Mr Abbott to dump his top business advisor. …” – SMH

          Bandt’s Raison d’être recedes faster than free willie on a frosty Canberra morning.


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          • #
            James Murphy

            Bandt symbolises much of what is wrong with Australian politics. He’s no more interested in making his electorate, or Australia a better place to live, than, say, your average tree-fern.

            He sold out his far left ideology by joining the Greens – in as much as he joined them so he could get elected, because on his lonesome, he’d be seen for the extremist he really is, and no one in their right minds would throw a vote his way.

            Unfortunately, he is not Robinson Crusoe when it comes to Aussie politicians telling the public what they want to hear.


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      • #
        James Murphy

        Surely it’s marginally better coming from Maurice Newman than from Sam Newman? Or maybe it isn’t…?


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  • #
    PhilJourdan

    We are having an extreme summer here on the east coast.

    It is extremely nice!


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    • #
      Mark D.

      East coast of where Phil?

      It ain’t the best of summers here in the Great Lakes central.

      Better than ice I’m sure but not summer…..


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      • #
        PhilJourdan

        East coast. Today it is 81, low humidity (We are usually upper 90s, and high humidity). I think we have had a handful of 90º days total this summer. And very little humidity.

        But I guess for us to get this weather, you have to be a bit chilly. To paraphrase Horace Greely – go south young man, go south! ;-)


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  • #

    Although it is true that in a cooling world there are more extremes of BOTH heat and cold due to more meridional jet stream tracks that wasn’t the cause of the 1930s heat waves.

    They were a result of more zonal jets during a warming spell when the subtropical high pressure cell, which is normally situated over the south west of the USA, intensified and expanded.

    One needs to bear in mind that oceanic and solar cycles can be in phase or out of phase with each other yet both affect regional drought indices by influencing jet stream tracks and the subtropical high pressure cells so it is difficult to separate their combined effects from system noise except over centuries. Hence the rather poor correlation between atmospheric circulation and the drought index at all times other than in the 1930s.


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  • #
    turnedoutnice

    Not drowning but waving………..


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  • #

    Just because there is an “explanation” does not mean it is a description of the real cause. It is especially not an omen for the future. Stuff happens. It always has happened. It is never going to stop happening. There is nothing we can do to keep it from happening. All we can do is develop the technology that will protect us from the worst the stuff that happens can do and take advantage of the good it can do.

    The that technology is called a civilization that based upon the massive generation and distribution of cheap energy. Interfere with the generation and distribution of cheap energy then the civilization collapses and man is vulnerable to the bad stuff that happens. He no longer can take advantage of the good stuff.

    Most of all, don’t panic. If you do, then you have two problems.

    The first problem is the stuff that happens. The second problem is the fact that the panic will result in your doing the wrong things, the wrong way, at the worst possible time. This is because panic means you have stopped thinking and simply do stuff because you feel you must do something. What you will do will be without understanding the what, the why, or the how to do it. Good can come from that only by accident. Even then you won’t know that it is good or why it is good.

    DON’T PANIC. THINK! Then act according to what is real and not according to how you feel. That is your only chance to survive and thrive.


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    • #
      Roy Hogue

      And for stating the plain and obvious truth Lionell gets a red thumb?

      The red thumb bombers must be the same people who run stop signs, red signals, cut me off on the freeway and do other things that exhibit the same kind of misunderstanding of consequences directly resulting from one’s actions — in the case of climate alarmism, very bad consequences called wasted resources, lost opportunity, suffering and as the UK has demonstrated, death.

      But hey! No one is perfect. :-(


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  • #
    dp

    Let me see if I’m following the story – since the end of the LIA unprecedented weather has been occurring at unprecedented rates. I’m inclined to think the same is true of weather preceding the end of the LIA, too. I’m beginning to think the term unprecedented might be a little weather-worn because if unprecedented weather is always happening then it is hardly unprecedented.

    Real scare stories usually have something really scary like a pirate’s hook hanging from the handle on the door of a car that just left “Lover’s Lane” after an evening of lust high above the city lights.


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    • #
      James Murphy

      Your last paragraph was unprecedented. I hope those city lights were wind powered…

      Mind you, where I am living now, the weather is unprecedented, I have no idea if I should prepare for cool weather and rain, or slap on some sunscreen and stroll around in my shorts… I know, it’s a hard life… still, it’s a long weekend, so I should find some unprecedented weather to complain about elsewhere.


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  • #
    Doug Proctor

    The trend from 1960:I wonder what the trend would be if the pre-1999 temp corrections were used.
    We are seeing the same data in different presentations but acting as if it were new or at least different data.


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    • #
      Leigh

      Doug, back in the sixtys heat waves were usually three consecutive days of temperature above 100 degrees (F).
      After posting that statment on another blog a couple of years ago.
      The BOM actually refuted that statement online.
      Stating they never had such a policy and heatwaves had different criteria for different areas.
      But it now seems they have such a policy, with the temperature requirement closer 95 degrees (F).
      I’d again expect the usual indignation by BOM and denials.
      But have a look at recent heat waves and the temperatures they were declared at.
      Upping those very same temperatures to 100 (F) suddenly has many dissappearing.
      It would seem to explain their assertions of increased heatwaves.
      As kid growing up in the sixtys who’s life revolved around fishing and beach.
      We had our own temperature scale.
      Warm 90(F) hot 95(F) and bloody hot 100+(F)


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  • #
    diogenese2

    “Pika – also known as the ‘Whistling Hare” due to its high pitched alarm call when diving into its burrow”
    The Potsdam Pikas, having found that “global warming” and now “ice extent” have failed, are betting the family jewels on “extreme weather events”.
    In this feeble attempt they major on 2 aspects of the USA in 2012 as consequent on hot weather.

    US Corn production : Well below expectation but still the second highest ever – the deficit well covered by the record global production. Biggest losers – the bio-diesel industry.

    US Wild Fires: 3rd Highest area but lowest ever number – ie they had a few big ones. Wild fires are a wonderfully documented subject in itself and yields hours of fascinating study. Suffice to quote one conclusion; “Fire suppression policies which leave more timber to burn MAY also be a factor.
    I believe you aussies have some experience of this.

    But the most revealing comment in the press release is “AGW can explain a gradual increase in periods of extreme heat, but the observed changes in the magnitude and duration of some events are not so easily explained”. i.e. there is another cause – they have refuted their own thesis!

    As an historical aside on corn production, it was the Lewis & Clarke expedition of 1803/6 that identified to President Jefferson the potential of the American mid-west for corn production and stimulated the expansion of the US into the territory of the Louisiana Purchase – previously just trapper country.
    In retrospect this journey of discovery was a seminal event in world history and was, primarily, a work of field science.
    I can recommend Stephen Ambrose “Undaunted Courage” – an amazing account.


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    • #
      Roy Hogue

      I wonder how many recent high school graduates would recognize the names Lewis and Clark when mentioned together that way. And if they did, how many could actually tell you what they did?

      Some no doubt would but I suspect many whole schools and school districts would be found wanting in the U. S. History department.


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  • #
    Bruce

    Rahmstorf’s story!

    Who next Michael Mann?


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  • #

    Geez! More of this world to end at ten, film at eleven crap from the warmists!

    I love perusing old newspaper articles. I saw many articles from days of yore warning of either calamitous cooling or hellfire heating but never one about how “normal” the weather was going to be.

    As Mark Twain once said, “Everybody talks about the weather but nobody does anything about it.”

    I wonder what would have happened if politicians had followed the scientists advice and poured soot on the poles or utilized nuclear bombs to stave off the forecast impending ice age? Maybe eighty foot tall climate scientists?


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    • #
      Truthseeker

      followed the scientists advice and poured soot on the poles

      Just in case anyone thought Eddy was joking


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    • #
      Safetyguy66

      “Voice or no voice, the people can always be brought to the bidding of the leaders. That is easy. All you have to do is tell them they are being attacked, and denounce the peacemakers for lack of patriotism and exposing the country to danger. It works the same in any country.” Herman Goering at the Nuremberg Trials

      It also works in any age it would seem.


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  • #

    Atmospheric waves?

    Maybe we should all just wave back at the weather and wish it well?


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  • #
    the Griss

    Are “damn potty” using real data, or are they using the NDCD homogenised and frozen yoghurt?


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  • #
    el gordo

    ‘What if David Archibald’s book, “The Twilight of Abundance. Why Life In The 21st Century Will Be Nasty Brutish and Short”, turns out to be right? What if the last 50 years of peace, cheap energy, abundant food, global economic growth and population explosion have been due to a temporary climate phenomenon? What if the warmth the world has enjoyed for the past 50 years is the result of solar activity, not man made CO2?

    ‘In a Letter to the Editor of Astronomy and Astrophysics, Usokin et al, produced the “first fully adjustment-free physical reconstruction of solar activity”. They found that over the last 3,000 years the modern Grand maxima which occurred between 1959 and 2009, was a rare event both in magnitude and duration. This research adds to growing evidence that climate change is determined by the sun not humans.’

    Maurice Newman / Oz


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    • #
      Bulldust

      I hope Maurice didn’t glom onto the peak alarmist meme… the only resources that can “run out” are energy resources. To the extent they become depleted (or at least the higher grade wells/deposits depleted) it is of minor interest, as price signals will tell the market which energy source to use next. That’s it…

      Oh yeah, helium can be lost to space.

      Everything else we have mined is still on earth, barring a small amount of space junk. There is no real peak anything issue that the markets won’t adjust to.

      Happy to debate this concept to death … peak alarmism is a pet peeve of mine because it is stacked full of ignorance.


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      • #
        Roy Hogue

        What’s to debate, Bulldust? When you’re right you’re right.


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      • #

        Ignorance is not the only thing it is stuffed full of.


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      • #
        Unmentionable

        Oh man, you’re desperately needed over at ourfiniteworld.com, I swear those guys will give you a frontal hemorrhage in about 15 mins with their doomer insistence that everything is obviously limited, depleted, polluted and kaput and never repairs, or reqrows, or restores itself to health. The extreme doomerism there has breached the gulf between mere rational realism or even pessimism and taken flight into full blown pathological self-hate and misanthropy. Even if the AGW extremism dies down the fires of perpetual doom will not be sated.


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        • #
          Richard C (NZ)

          Re “extreme doomerism”

          ‘A climate of despair’

          Konrad Marshall
          Senior Reporter for The Age

          Nicole Thornton remembers the exact moment her curious case of depression became too real to ignore. It was five years ago and the environmental scientist – a trained biologist and ecologist – was writing a rather dry PhD on responsible household water use.

          [...]

          The United Nations was about to hold its 2009 climate change conference in Copenhagen, and Thornton felt she had a personal investment in it. She, like many thousands of activists and scientists and green campaigners, had high hopes that a new and robust version of the Kyoto agreement would be created in Denmark.

          “But the reality was a massive, epic failure of political will. It broke me,” she says. “The trigger point was actually watching grown men cry. They were senior diplomats from small islands, begging larger countries to take action so that their nations would not drown with the rising seas.”

          Thornton pauses, takes a breath. “It still gets me, five years later. That’s when I lost hope that we were able to save ourselves from self-destruction. That’s when I lost hope that we would survive as a species. It made me more susceptible to what I call ‘climate depression’.”

          If the term “climate depression” is new to you, it should be. No such condition is recognised by the world of psychiatry.

          [...]

          Yet no matter what the nomenclature (some refer to the problem as “ecoanxiety”, while others talk about “doomer depression” and “apocalypse fatigue”), despondency over a what many believe is societal failure to adequately acknowledge or address environmental issues has become a line of psychological inquiry.

          [...]

          Journals have published papers with titles such as “The Debilitating Disease of Climate Alarmism” and “A Climate of Suffering”.

          Six years ago, a dehydrated 17-year-old boy was brought into the Royal Children’s Hospital, refusing to drink water. He believed having a drink would somehow contribute to the global shortage of potable water, and became the first diagnosed case of “climate change delusion”.

          [...]

          But other experts point out that we should not so easily or readily confuse helplessness with depression – nor should we mistake correlation for causation.

          Professor Helen Berry, of the University of Canberra, has done extensive research into the health impacts of climate change, and says it is “unlikely” there is any such thing as climate depression.

          [...]

          Berry mentions that research has also shown that certain types of people are drawn to political activism, including people with or prone to mental health problems, so she is cautious about making “what may well be spurious associations”.

          Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/national/a-climate-of-despair-20140813-102r1w.html#ixzz3AMZibSBG

          I’ve tried to empathize – but I can’t….


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          • #
            Unmentionable

            “The trigger point was actually watching grown men cry. They were senior diplomats from small islands, begging larger countries to take action so that their nations would not drown with the rising seas.”


            Very funny – thanks. :D

            Not caring to ever invest in any of these half-backed theories causes me to smile profusely whenever I encounter people who do. Like falling off your motorbike, you learn not to do it again, but you sure don’t stop riding.


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    • #
      Bulldust

      Here’s a link to a mobile version of the Maurice Newmn article (Google for paywall bypass):

      http://m.theaustralian.com.au/opinion/were-illprepared-if-the-iceman-cometh/story-e6frg6zo-1227023489894

      It’s a mixture of some common sense, some data snippets from Jo (I guess … the $80b spent by the US on climate change research)and some rather wide-eyed speculation. I am not sure how some of the comments will be helpful in the general debate. For example:

      At the same time, like primitive civilisations offering up sacrifices to appease the gods, many governments, including Australia’s former Labor government, used the biased research to pursue “green” gesture politics. This has inflicted serious damage on economies and diminished the West’s standing and effectiveness in world ­affairs.

      and then this:

      This mindset sought to bury the results of Danish physicist Henrik Svensmark’s experiments using the Large Hadron Collider, the world’s most powerful particle accelerator. For the first time in controlled conditions, Svensmark’s hypothesis that the sun alters the climate by influencing cosmic ray influx and cloud formation was validated. The head of CERN, which runs the laboratory, obviously afraid of how this heretical conclusion would be received within the global warming establishment, urged caution be used in interpreting the results “in this highly political area of climate change debate”. And the media obliged.

      I think we are a slight distance from saying Svensmark’s hypothesis was validated aren’t we? Did I miss something significant in the last couple years?


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  • #
    Streetcred

    What Part Of This Isn’t Clear?

    NASA has altered their own data to hide the decline globally. The animation below shows changes to published NASA global temperature data from 1981 to the present.


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  • #
    Bruce of Newcastle

    They keep trying to link sinuousity in Rossby waves to CO2 and it just won’t work. Its the Sun that causes this. As a result you get more jet stream blocking leading to heatwaves and cold shots, often at the same time like during the Moscow heatwave in 2010, which coincided with floods in Pakistan on the other side of the jet stream.

    Even though we’re at the top of the (double) peak of the current solar cycle the Ap Progression index is back down to 5, which seems to be the level where jet stream blocking becomes pretty noticeable.

    As we decline off the top of the solar cycle peak we will be seeing more of this. And more excitement from the credulous MSM.

    Anyone who wants to know where the jet streams are, this site has them mapped.


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  • #
    tom0mason

    —————————— SheepleNews Today ————————————

    Be afraid!
    Trapped atmospheric waves on the rise.
    Extreme heatwaves to come.


    “And Scientists say the new normal will get worst as the models project that 97%….”


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  • #
    Yonniestone

    This is a very important post by Jo in the sense of showing the very meaning of warmists ‘cherry picking’ in the field of climate science, the average person would follow this explanation quite easily if only the MSM would cease with the sensational headlines that go nowhere, all package no content comes to mind.

    Thanks also to the comments above, they give a fantastic alternate angle on this subject.


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  • #
    old44

    According to one TV presenter “in record breaking heatwave, last night was the hottest january night since 2004″ I nearly fell out of my chair.


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  • #

    Pity they didn’t have MSM back in the rotten 14th century. Just a few clerks and monks to scratch out a few harvest and death figures, while everyone missed the good old warm days of the previous century.

    Do these “scientists” really think the climate started shortly after “My Sharona” topped the charts?


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  • #
    Roy Hogue

    My God! I better get an even bigger air conditioner right away. Oh! Wait another minute. California has an energy shortage to go along with these “waves” and their higher temperatures. Help, help, help. What will I do? How will I survive this catastrophe?


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  • #
    ROM

    The only product that climate science has ever tried to sell is FEAR.

    The ONLY product they have to sell is FEAR.

    Climate Science’s only successes have been to create and promote immense amounts of stress and suffering to billions of the poorest on this Earth.
    Climate Science has both created the means and has overseen the destruction of immenses amounts of wealth and treasure to prevent a predicted dangerous and catastrophic climate event for which neither they nor anybody else has ANY verifiable or proven evidence that the chances of such a catastrophic climate event ever existed other in their now completely discredited climate models.

    All of their predictions have failed in their totallity.
    All of their science is now deeply suspect.
    All of Climate Science and much of it’s data is now suspect of being corrupt, corrupted and corrupting.
    By their own admissions all of their climate models are nothing more than reflections of the modeler’s own deep seated biases and of their own beliefs.
    All of their climate models for a quarter of a century past have failed in their totality in ALL of their predictions for each and everyone of their predicted significant and catastophic changes in the global climate.

    The only thing Climate Science has to sell is FEAR

    The only thing Climate Science has ever sold is FEAR

    And even that is now a FAIL

    CLIMATE SCIENCE as a true Science IS A TOTAL FAIL.

    Climate Science and it’s only product, that of of FEAR is the spurious creation of an urbanised ivory towered academic elite who have completely lost touch with the real world of NATURE, a NATURE that is far, far removed from their narrow, intellectually limiting urbanised beliefs of what NATURE should be but is and is not.


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  • #
    realist

    The US EPA is just another propaganda arm of the smoke and mirrors agenda. Smoke to obscure the truth and mirrors to deflect attention away from reality. They practice their manipulation techniques with peas and thimbles every Monday morning.

    1. Truth; 2. Opinion; 3. Belief: corner stones for setting our moral compass. Like life, always shifting with change, seeking balance.
    Everyone functions on a mixture of all three and the less of #1 we actively seek, the more we are influenced by #2 and driven by #3. A conservative mind (doesn’t imply a political leaning) always seeks the truth, particularly when it’s evasive, and form principles and belief almost devoid of opinion. It’s either factual, or it’s not. A lazy, easily manipulated mind is usually lead by mere opinion and the belief mindset of the collective: a normal trait of a “progressive” socialist.

    Education and information contained in “news” of today are based on a heavy dose of selected opinion and belief with a smattering of truth tossed in to disuise it as legitimate. It’s always a duality, but with an in-built bias, much like a lawn bowl. Independence means being prepared to stand quite separate from the collective and not play ball unless the bias is always towards seeking the truth. Avoiding MSM “information and advice” is a good start.


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    pat

    EU Commissioners can’t even get their own members to comply with these endless CAGW rules, so what chance of succeeding with the rest of the world?

    13 Aug: Reuters: Barbara Lewis: UPDATE 2-EU regulators say Germany, others in breach of energy law
    EU regulators have begun legal proceedings against 24 member states, including Germany, for failing to enforce a law on energy efficiency, the European Commission said on Wednesday…
    She (Commission spokeswoman Marlene Holzner) only named Germany, but the Commission said that in total, 24 of the bloc’s 28 member states missed a June 5 deadline for fully transposing the European Union’s Energy Efficiency Directive into their national laws.
    The directive was agreed by member states in 2012 to enforce an existing target to cut energy use by 20 percent by 2020 compared with projected use…
    Those listed as non-compliers include Denmark, which has transposed the law, but had failed to tell the Commission it had done so in time for the June 5 deadline.
    The five member states who say they have enforced the law are Cyprus, Denmark, Italy, Malta and Sweden, according to a list published by the Commission…
    Member states that do not act to comply eventually face the possibility of fines payable for every day that they fail to implement EU law.
    http://uk.reuters.com/article/2014/08/13/eu-energy-germany-idUKL6N0QJ2FS20140813


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    handjive

    Heatwaves to come?

    But, Obama says global warming is here. Now!

    And …

    Heat waves are replacing drought as the deadliest climate disaster

    (A)ccording to a new report from the World Meteorological Organization, the number of deaths attributable to drought appears to be declining over time.

    On the flip side, heat waves seem to be a rising killer, blamed for 72,000 deaths in Europe in 2003 and 55,000 in Russia in 2010.
    ~ ~ ~
    What is a heatwave you ask?

    (wikipedia)
    The definition recommended by the World Meteorological Organization is when the daily maximum temperature of more than five consecutive days exceeds the average maximum temperature by 5 °C (9 °F)

    14 Jan 2014:
    Bureau of Meteorology reveals first national heatwave definition
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-01-14/bureau-of-meteorology-provides-national-heatwave-definition/5199712

    16 Jan 2014 – Heatwave Tracker:
    Interactive animation shows temperatures around Australia over the past week (BoM data)
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-01-16/australian-heatwaves-getting-hotter-and-longer/5202272

    Quote Jonova:
    “Things are getting desperate for the long term climate forecasters when they start listing individual weather events
    one by one.”

    It is established by the 97% consensus of settled climate science that weather is now climate:

    “A few years ago, talking about weather and climate change in the same breath was a cardinal sin for scientists.
    Now it has become impossible to have a conversation about the weather without discussing wider climate trends, according to researchers who prepared the Australian Climate Commission’s latest report.

    It might even be the case that the mantra chanted after every catastrophic weather event – that it can’t be said to be caused by climate change, but it shows what climate change will do – has become a thing of the past,” said Will Steffen, the report’s lead author and director of the Australian National University’s Climate Change Institute.”

    NB.
    There is some 97% consensus scientists, like Dr. Connelley, who claim that “Climate is the statistics of weather.”
    (William Connolley July 14, 2014 at 10:56 pm comment #3.4.1.1.1)
    http://joannenova.com.au/2014/07/australia-already-has-a-kind-of-emissions-trading-scheme-surprize-banks-are-major-players/#more-37062

    But, Dr. Connelley fails to highlight this point with fellow travellers believers, choosing to leave unsubstantiated comments on “denier” blogs.


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    pat

    time for that EU referendum, Cameron?

    13 Aug: Bloomberg: Louise Downing: Europe’s Green Energy Rules Cost U.K. $156 Billion
    European Union laws that reduce pollution and ensure energy security may have cost the U.K. as much as 93.2 billion pounds ($156.5 billion), a group campaigning to renegotiate membership in the bloc said.
    Business for Britain calculated the impact as a range starting at 86.6 billion pounds and said the rules are threatening jobs and driving companies to nations with lower power prices…
    European energy prices are among the highest in the developed world. Some industrial consumers pay about 20 percent more for electricity than companies in China, about 65 percent more than in India and twice as much as in the U.S. and Russia, the report said. Rising prices in the U.K. are threatening as many as 1.5 million jobs, it said…
    The U.K. aims to get 20 percent of its energy from renewables by 2020. In addition the share of energy from renewables in transport must amount to at least 10 percent of final energy consumption by 2020.
    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-08-12/europe-s-green-energy-rules-cost-u-k-156-billion.html


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    davey street

    Human-made global warming can explain a gradual increase in periods of severe heat so just keep the taxpayer billions coming to us climate scientists so we can keep on telling ourselves and you all about it.


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    Geoffrey Cousens

    These “people”,will they never give up?


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    Angry

    The Earth is cooling down and not heating up like these MORONIC WARMISTS predict !

    Cooling would be worse, and some scientists now warn…:-

    http://blogs.news.com.au/heraldsun/andrewbolt/index.php/heraldsun/comments/cooling_would_be_worse_and_some_scientiests_now_warn/

    Time to buy some more jumpers!!


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    Rolf

    They will never not give up. Just read the comments from the last post from this mr craig. When he got a really well documented answer with links and many questions, he like his ilk never answer. I guess they don’t even bother to check the links.


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      the Griss

      “I guess they don’t even bother to check the links.”

      Imagine the utter confusion in their feeble brain-washed minds when presented with actual facts. !

      I can see them sitting there, eye clenched shut, fingers in ears, going… “la-la-la….don’t want to know !”


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    Retired now

    What wasn’t in Newman’s Australian piece but was in Archibald’s book was the 50 – 90% death rate that would occur in the middle eastern – arab world if the temperature dropped to a Dalton type low dropping food productivity and doubling wheat/grain prices at a time when the countries couldn’t continue to subsidise it. Just imagine the number of people who would think they had a right to come to Australia if that started to occur.


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    Bulldust

    The Australian Greens are debating whether to rename the party (paywalled – use Google search if necessary):

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/greens-debate-a-new-moniker/story-fn59niix-1227023565008

    I am sure a few choice suggestions spring to mind, but looney policies running under a different badge are still looney policies.


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    Mark D.

    If it’s ok with everyone else, could we have a firm definition of “extreme heatwave”?

    I wonder if William Connolley can help me to understand the difference between “Extreme” and “catastrophic” in some context that makes sense to him.


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    Graeme No.3

    What happens when 2 extreme waves meet? Do they annihilate each other or do they spawn a new more threatening type of wave. I suppose it depends on the amount of funding, so the only way to avoid these disaster waves is to cut funding for research of this type.


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  • #
    Unmentionable

    Most of this stuff extreme talk of weather, the perpetual pending doomerism that never comes, the “better than expected” this and that, it’s nothing more than hand-waving by editors and spruikers looking for copy circulation. A more annoying modern equivalent of door-to-door Vacuum Cleaner sales people who complement your white picket fence and lawn, and say they see you take pride in your home before the sales pitch.

    It’s everywhere and reaching dangerous proportions, for example; investment house HFT (high frequency trade) bid and sell algorithms in stock markets, which are alleged ‘investment’ networks, respond to real-time scanning and OCR text reading of online text headlines, for key words and phrases, in order to ‘decide’ whether to buy or sell a stock – or all stocks. Thus Garbage in = Garbage out, and the incentive is to manipulate headlines to obtain the sell of buy conditions you want.

    It has nothing to do with the economic or financial fundamentals and facts of a company, which the stock value represents, or actual facts like weather, it’s instead about the measure and capture of a perception of merely purported ‘facts’. But to obtain a measure also of the change in the change of the perception of such alleged facts, in order to front run people’s buy and sell decisions, before they even make their choice. It”s a form of scaring the cattle to stampede in the direction you want in order to single out your lunch. Let’s forget that a ‘stock market’ is supposed to represent the investment mechanism for the sinew and health of nations, and that abstractions of stock pricing and headline grabs are in fact deciding if employees in a company will have a job, or be ruined and made unemployed.

    All that’s occurring with the extreme weather headlines and claims is the same process applied to human perceptions to elicit fear responses to boost readership and stampede into purchasing patterns. I offer you a scarey story, you jump through a paywall or enter a chattersphere interface to service your concerns and comments, which serves my add stats and traffic flow numbers, and the truth can go ‘n get stuffed.

    Climate pseudo-science is just creating the claims for most opportune stampede of perception and to manage and guide change in the change of perceptions.

    Perception matters, truth undermines perception-fixing. Lies make for very good business for liars, but very bad business for people. So truth is to be desiccated on sight, like a digital dewy-eyed Bambi, if it is ever silly enough to show itself undefended in the open. The interests of people and the contents of impressionable minds are implicitly the target. Weather records and data are of course going to be irrelevant.

    Welcome to Digitopia! Would you like fries with that?


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  • #

    Where is Craig Thomas when he is sorely needed?
    He would demand full pack drill for each of these “weather extremes” – or else!!!!


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    pat

    read it all:

    13 Aug: UK Daily Mail: Earth has been getting hotter for the past 10,000 YEARS, contradicting studies that humans started global warming
    The study argues previous research used contradictory ice core data
    Scientists ran different computer simulations of climate influences
    Each showed a notable global warming trend over last 10,000 years
    And no physical forces, scientists say, could have been strong enough to overwhelm the warming trend
    By Ellie Zolfagharifard For Mailonline
    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2723861/Earth-getting-hotter-past-10-000-YEARS-contradicting-studies-humans-began-global-warming-trend.html


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    Richard C (NZ)

    >”Is it a statewide average, a national record, or a hot week in Houston?”

    Or a Hot August Night?

    Apologies to Neil Diamond.


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    hunter

    One of the more annoying traits of the climate obsessed fanatic is their need to fabricate stories about how every weather cycle is more extreme than the last.


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    Al in Cranbrook

    Winnipeg, Manitoba is waiting patiently for some global warming to show up. Seems there’s this massive mountain of the white stuff from last winter’s snow removal that still hasn’t melted away…

    http://news.nationalpost.com/2014/08/13/winnipeg-hopes-18-metre-high-dirt-covered-snowpile-will-melt-before-winter-strikes-again/

    “The weather was so bad in Winnipeg over the winter that Environment Canada had to go back to 1898 to find comparable temperatures. Local newspapers led with stories of ground frozen to a depth of two metres, and water pipes frozen for weeks.”


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    • #
      Rod Stuart

      Not as unusual as you might think.
      I remember the underground water pipe between the pump shed and the barn freezing up in mid winter in the late ’50′s. It was buried about 6 feet underground. It took until mid August to thaw out.
      In that part of the country the frost line is nearly eight feet below the surface.


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    Don Gaddes

    ABC Landline June 15 2014, Resident Weather Expert Professor Roger Stone predicts a major El Nino event in the next couple of weeks (already under way – except for some pesky cold and rain.)
    Sub-surface sea temperatures (100 metres ) in the Eastern Pacific are 3 – 4 degrees above ‘normal’. ‘ If that comes to the surface, you have a major El Nino.’
    Well, Professor – Where is it?
    ENSO is dead as a climate prediction tool,(and has been for forty years.)


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