JoNova

A science presenter, writer, speaker & former TV host; author of The Skeptic's Handbook (over 200,000 copies distributed & available in 15 languages).


Handbooks

The Skeptics Handbook

Think it has been debunked? See here.

The Skeptics Handbook II

Climate Money Paper


Advertising

micropace


GoldNerds

The nerds have the numbers on precious metals investments on the ASX



Archives

Snow, blizzards, early winter in Europe, UK Met Office says horror winter predictions “are irresponsible”

This means nothing of course. Just weather. (No, actually I do mean that, though I expect those who look for excuses to complain will say I’m not allowed to discuss weather conditions. It’s a “dog-whistle”, or something.) For balance I’ll point out it’s been record hot on the East Coast of Australia. (Sydney’s  “third hottest October day since records began 154 years ago.”)

But seriously, it’s interesting (and sad) that snow in Dakota killed 100,000 head of cattle, that early heavy snow has fallen in Europe (nearly a meter in Switzerland), it’s been called the worst start to “winter for 200 years”. The snowfall in Germany was the largest at the start of winter since records started in 1800.

Probably most interesting of all is that long range forecasters are issuing catastrophic warnings (they are quite extreme) but the UK Met says that’s “irresponsible”, and that trying to predict the weather that far in advance is “crystal ball” gazing. (Oh really?)  They didn’t seem so concerned about predicting hot horrors on longer timeframes…

It’s been an early cold winter already in Europe

NoTricksZone “Most Severe Winter Start In 200 Years!” + Euro Municipalities Now Ignoring Foolish Predictions Of Warm Winters

“German RTL television last night here (starting at 4:30) called it the “most severe start of winter in 200 years!“, saying many meteorologists were caught by surprise. Up to half a meter of snow fell at some locations.

Unexpected snowfall brings early winter chaos to Bavaria

DW: “Winter has come early in Bavaria. Unexpected heavy snowfall has brought traffic to a halt in southern Germany, as well as Austria and Switzerland, and left thousands of people without power.

Germany’s DWD weather service recorded 35 centimeters of snowfall, the most at the beginning of the winter half-year since measurements began in 1800. Some parts of Switzerland experienced as much as 80 centimeters of snowfall.

 Long range forecasters are predicting savage, record cold in the UK

Piers Corbyn, managing director of WeatherAction is offering their October forecasts at half price due to “imminent extreme events in Britain, Ireland, EU and USA”. But other long range forecasters are bleak as well, like Vantage Weather:

“We are looking at a potentially paralysing winter, the worst for decades, which could at times grind the nation to a halt.

Exacta Weather predicts the worst winter for more than 100 years:

Express UK: “BRITAIN is braced for the “worst winter in decades” with the first major snowfall expected in weeks. He blamed the ‘poorly positioned” jet stream which is expected to be ‘blocked” south of the UK, allowing a continual flow of freezing Arctic air. James Madden, forecaster for Exacta Weather, said it was likely to be the worst winter for more than 100 years. He said: ‘A horror winter scenario is likely to bring another big freeze with copious snow for many parts.

The UK Met Office disagrees and  “blasts weather reports of “worst winter in decades’”

The Met Office says these forecasts are “irresponsible”, though I can’t say the Met Office inspire confidence in their ability to do any better:

 Northdevonjournal.co.uk “Met Office spokesman Nicky Maxey was critical of the reports, saying those producing them were “gazing into their crystal ball”.  “The science simply doesn’t exist to accurately predict so far in advance. Weather is too unpredictable.”

Meanwhile Europe is switching back to coal and may face an “energy crisis”

They put in too many renewables apparently:
Bloomberg: “A cold winter may plunge Europe into an energy crisis because of the over-reliance on renewable energy and the shutting of natural gas-fired generators, Cap Gemini SA (CAP) said in a report.  Gas-fired generators are running at utilization rates that are too low to meet their fixed costs as grids favor subsidized renewable power, the Paris-based management consultancy said today. About 60 percent or 130,000 megawatts of Europe’s gas-generation capacity is at risk of closing by 2016, it said, citing IHS Inc. (IHS) estimate
Euractive: “The French multinational company Cap Gemini warned in their European Observatory of Energy Markets that energy security in Europe was under threat and that the region could soon be exposed to massive power outages during the winter, due to a lack of production capacity. They blame wind turbines.

Things are cold in parts of the US as well

Early snow kills thousands of cattle in South Dakota

PIERRE, S.D. (AP) - “A record-breaking storm that dumped 4 feet of snow in parts of western South Dakota left ranchers dealing with heavy losses, in some cases perhaps up to half their herds, as they assess how many of their cattle died during the unseasonably early blizzard…

At least four deaths were attributed to the weather, including a South Dakota man who collapsed while cleaning snow off his roof.

“It’s bad. It’s really bad. I’m the eternal optimist and this is really bad,” Cammack said. “The livestock loss is just catastrophic. … It’s pretty unbelievable.”

In South Dakota, the 19 inches of snow that fell in Rapid City on Friday broke the city’s 94-year-old one-day snowfall record for October by about 9 inches, according to the National Weather Service. The city also set a record for snowfall in October, with a total of 23.1 inches during the storm. The previous record was 15.1 inches in October 1919.

Early snow arrives in Arizona. It’s just a couple of inches. Snow already in California too.

Hat tip to Climate Depot and to GWPF

VN:F [1.9.22_1171]
Rating: 8.4/10 (81 votes cast)
Snow, blizzards, early winter in Europe, UK Met Office says horror winter predictions "are irresponsible", 8.4 out of 10 based on 81 ratings

Tiny Url for this post: http://tinyurl.com/lw6sc2v

131 comments to Snow, blizzards, early winter in Europe, UK Met Office says horror winter predictions “are irresponsible”

  • #
    • #

      Kevin, I live in Connecticut about 50 miles NNw of New York City. I use my own Murphy Weather Control techniques. I have 20 gallons of gas for my generator, My snow blower is tuned. I also have almost 3 cords of wood single stacked and covered. I have found the weather pleasant so far.

      Is my Weather Control working, well all the weather forecasts for the next few months show warmer than usual temperatures. But now that I posted this, it may have broken my Weather Control. OH WELL…..

      110

      • #
        Kevin Lohse

        You could well have discovered the Reverse Gore Effect. Apply for grant money at once.

        211

      • #
        JohnB

        That darn ‘E’ is just too close to ‘W”

        I think you meant NNE (but that might just be me being pendantic)

        But be of good cheer

        One of the “Farmer’s Almanac” is predicting a bad winter for “New England”.

        10

      • #
        old44

        You have done it now, but while you cruise through winter save a thought for my friends in Darwin who put a coat on their dog when the temperature drops to a freezing 28C.

        00

  • #
    graphicconception

    When the UK Met Office got its new computer in 2009, the x-y plotter on the output had its y-axis wires connected the wrong way round. So if they predict less precipitation we get more and if they predict warmer winters we get colder ones.

    It is a simple error but one they have not noticed yet.

    401

  • #
    Roy Hogue

    Snow already in California too.

    And yet the rest of southern California is having its usual October with nothing out of the ordinary, cold or hot. I expect some overnight frost by Halloween or early November. But that wouldn’t be anything extraordinary either.

    Weather obeys only its own gods, not humans. We don’t normally have rain during the summer. But I can remember a cloudburst in August in the 1970′s that severely taxed all the drainage capabilities. And it dumped about 6 inches of water into the space under the mainframe computers because the brine pipes from the cooling plant in the parking lot had been dug up for repair. Who expected any rain in August, much less a cloudburst?

    Is the climate really cooling? It would appear so. On the other hand it may simply be normal weather variation.

    150

    • #
      Kevin Lohse

      Roy, I put it to you that the weight of empirical evidence being gathered is in favour of all climate warming and cooling being largely driven by normal weather variation, and I’m not confusing climate with weather.

      180

      • #
        Ian

        I know that global warming has in true Orwellian fashion been changed to Climate Change due to the “hiatus” in global warming and I know that “Extreme Weather” is now with us due to CO2 induced Climate Change. This “Extreme Weather” encompasses drought and flooding and earthquakes and bush fires and anything else the doomsayers can think of but, and I ask all commenters, have the increases in global temperatures since 1850 due to AGW been blamed for extremely cold weather? This conclusion may have been drawn and I’ve missed it but surely extreme cold can’t be blamed on global warming due to human produced CO2, can it?

        80

        • #
          Ian

          In a petulant hissy fit because no one would speak to me here, I flounced off in the general direction of Google. Well. you’ll all be totally amazed to hear global warming does cause icy winters. Ice melting in the Arctic is to blame as, so says Prof Stefan Rahmstorf,”The model simulations show that, when you don’t get ice on the Barents and Kara seas, that promotes the formation of a high-pressure system there, and, because the airflow is clockwise around the high, it brings cold, polar air right into Europe, which leads to cold conditions here while it is unusually warm elsewhere, especially in the Arctic,” Mind you other experts “emphasised that the climate is complex and there were other factors at play. It is, they said, too early to be sure if the past two cold winters are due to the ice-free Arctic”. Other factors at play, eh? I thought there was only one factor affecting climate.

          80

          • #
            crakar24

            Sorry for not responding earlier Ian and although your statements did contain question marks i thought they were of the rhetorical nature due to there being only one obvious answer.

            So in an effort to stop any further fits let me respond to you now.

            Let carefully disect what this computer programmer (did he actually write the code?) has to say.

            ,”The model simulations show that, when you don’t get ice on the Barents and Kara seas, that promotes the formation of a high-pressure system there, and, because the airflow is clockwise around the high, it brings cold, polar air right into Europe, which leads to cold conditions here while it is unusually warm elsewhere, especially in the Arctic,”

            Now remember we are talking about increasing CO2 causing colder winters due to a warmer Arctic as he states:

            when you don’t get ice on the Barents and Kara seas, that promotes the formation of a high-pressure system there,

            Translated to real world speak, the Barents and Kara seas have less ice due to AGW

            that promotes the formation of a high-pressure system there, and, because the airflow is clockwise around the high, it brings cold, polar air right into Europe,

            Translation, the warming of the Arctic creates a high pressure system yada yada yada which in turn which leads to cold conditions here it brings cold polar air right into Europe but i thought he just said it is warming and there is now less ice?

            And lastly

            while it is unusually warm elsewhere, especially in the Arctic

            Oh so i was right he did say it was warmer in the Arctic, so in summary AGw is warming the Arctic which is a proven fact simply by measuring sea ice extent each September, this warmth in the Arctic changes wheather patterns which leads to the bitter cold air from the Arctic to flow down into Europe ergo the warmer the Arctic gets the colder will Europe.

            Really Ian i cannot for the life of me understand how anyone could question such solid logic.

            Cheers

            70

            • #
              Backslider

              in summary AGw is warming the Arctic which is a proven fact simply by measuring sea ice extent each September

              Many warmists actually believe this. Its not warmer in the Arctic at all. What melts the ice is the weather – storms and ocean currents, not warmer surface temperatures.

              There are many pictures on the web from years ago of submarines surfacing at the North Pole. It is not unusual at all to find open water there. People think that its always supposed to be solid ice. Its not always and never has always been since the Little Ice Age.

              120

              • #
                BilB

                You’ve got a forests and trees problem, backslider. Extreme weather, and warm currents are due to warmer surface temperatures and their associated influences.

                Record snow falls and warm winters are also consequences of Global Warming, for the Northern Hemisphere more than the Southern. It is an exact replay of our winter here in Australia. The warmest winter on record I think is how it was reported. Election day, the first winter of Spring was a midsummers day where I voted.

                It is going to be interesting to see how many years like these it will be before the lights come on for you.

                111

              • #
                Dave

                Backslider,

                Yup, it’s getting colder because of CAGW??? /Sarc.

                1. NOAA announced that the 2013 winter was overall the coldest winter in 30 years for the entire northern hemisphere.
                2. Europe had one of the coldest springs on record.
                3. In the USA it has been overall the coolest summer for more than 30 years, notably in the West, despite some widely reported intense heat in the east.
                4. It has also been the coldest summer Alaska has had in many years – about 15 degrees colder.
                5. In fact the Arctic has had the shortest summer on record. Normally the high Arctic has about 90 days above freezing but this year there was less than half that.
                6. There is now more ice at the Arctic than what the National Geographic map showed for 1971.
                7. In the southern hemisphere, Peru is having the coldest winter in 100 years.
                8. The cold spell has killed at least seven people in Peru, four in Bolivia and two in Paraguay. In Chile, homeless deaths rose to 16.
                9. Tasmania has had a frozen winter, and according to the NOAA, Antarctica is having a winter -23 degrees below normal.

                So much more, but the liars continually scream, It’s burning up, give me money.

                170

              • #
                Backslider

                our winter here in Australia. The warmest winter on record I think is how it was reported.

                I’m certain that you got that wrong sonny.

                Election day, the first winter of Spring was a midsummers day where I voted.

                Uh huh, “the first winter of spring”. Yep, you definitely have your seasons mixed up. It’s STILL snowing.

                30

              • #
                Ian George

                Bilb
                ‘The warmest winter on record I think is how it was reported.’
                Not according to the BOM.
                http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/season/aus/summary.shtml

                00

              • #
                BilB

                …….first week of Spring. correction

                Second warmest winter on record.

                “Maximum temperatures during winter were the second-warmest on record for Australia as a whole, with an anomaly of +1.42 °C. Area-averaged maxima for all States and the Northern Territory, except Tasmania, were also at least the tenth-warmest on record. Tasmania was also the only State to record a seasonal anomaly of less than +1 °C. Daytime temperatures were above average across most of Australia and in the highest 10% of records for the northeastern half of Australia and much of the western coastline and Eucla region of Western Australia (totalling 74% of the country)”

                12

              • #
                Backslider

                Second warmest winter on record.

                You are of course aware that the BOM is now in the habit of adjusting temperatures up?

                Its meaningless. The fact is sonny that its snowing big time…. oops, its no longer winter!!!

                22

          • #
            BilB

            Rahmstorf is right.

            The high Arctic high pressure cell is the delivery mechanism for these broad reaching ams of cold air causing unseasonal snow. But the reason why they are occuring earlier each year is due to the more intense Low pressure systems in the northern tropics. The intense cyclone hitting India could well be the event pushing cold air out of the Arctic, though there are more likely a number of events occuring. Similarly several years back the floods of Pakistan low pressure system fed the fires in Russia high pressure system. These are some of the complexities that others caution of.

            The general principle is very simple. More net energy in the atmosphere equals more and more intense air circulation. It is only going to become more news worthy every year.

            I had a look at the HadCRUT4 information and that too is fully consistent with all of this from what I can see.

            012

            • #
              Graeme No.3

              I can’t see how a cyclone hitting India this year could be responsible for arctic air hitting northern Europe last year. Or are you making a prediction of what will happen shortly?

              “I had a look at the HadCRUT4 information and that too is fully consistent with all of this from what I can see”. I see, said blind Freddie!

              20

            • #
              Backslider

              More net energy in the atmosphere equals more and more intense air circulation.

              That is not how it works at all sonny.

              More intense air circulation is due to pressure differences, that is, colder air versus warmer air. If the Arctic were warmer as you purport then the differential would be LESS, thus LESS severe weather.

              70

              • #
                BilB

                Apart from altitude it takes energy and the earth’s rotation to create pressure differences. No energy = static air mass.

                Circulation is created by rising (low pressure) and falling (high pressure) air, and adiabatic heating of air. You would do well to understand the mechanisms of this as it would improve your appreciation of why Global Warming is such a threat.

                And yes when the Arctic warms a lot more we are in a real mess.

                05

              • #
                Backslider

                And yes when the Arctic warms a lot more we are in a real mess.

                But the thing is this: The Arctic has not warmed.

                50

            • #
              Mark D.

              Rahmstorf is right.

              Rahmstorf MAY be right about the high pressure formation, but where does all the “heat” and energy go when all of Europe is chilled by polar cold?

              Are you going to try again telling us that it isn’t temperature that tells us it’s warming by co2?

              40

              • #
                BilB

                The air that descends in the Arctic High Pressure cell is warmer than the surface air that is pushed out away from the pole to chill the areas away from the pole thus creating a warming effect. It is also spreading the ice out to warm faster as the suns energy is absorbed into the gaps between the ice chunks. The ice may be spread further periodically, but the net effect is thinner and ever less ice mass.

                It is worth a vist to the BOM site. They have some very good eplanatory pages on how high pressure and low pressure systems work. You would have to have been wondering why highs are usual hot and clear. The site covers this but the hot is to do with compression of the air. It’s not that obvious but air at altitude is very low pressure so air coming from 40,000 feet gets squeezed a huge amount on the way down, heating it up relative (that is important) to the air around it. So even though everything at the pole is cold relative to where we are, the air relative to the surface temperatures can be warming.

                I am no expert, but that is as I understand it to be.

                The effect of the CO2 is to promote warmer air and increase ocean warming. That releases more moisture into the atmosphere. the increased moisture in conjunction with more warm surface air increases atmospheric circulation. Ultimately that circulation increases at the poles increasing the warming from above, while the warmer currents play on the ice from below (more so in the south than in the north). Heat from the Atlantic conveyor in the current has the difficulty of fighting against the melt fresh water runoff preventing it entering the Arctic circle so there is an unpredictable battle of forces going on there.

                Peru’s and Bolivia’s horror winters were all about Antarctic thaw low salinity water carried on the Humbolt current delivering more than usual “cold” to that area. This water would have carried on up the west coast of the US to deliver colder temps to California as well.

                These things all happen in surges (as Roger jone’s research quantifies) or cycles (fluctuations), but the underlying influences are the ones to understand.

                It is OK to call these things fluctuations and leave them as a mystery when the overall effect is stable climate, but when there is a clearly recogniseable trend one way or the other, we really need to take notice and attempt to figure out what is going on..

                08

              • #
                Brian G Valentine

                BilB, how does this differ from the natural air circulation of warm air that rises at the Equator and cooler air from the Poles creating a pressure difference that moves the cooler air toward the Equator to replace the warmer air?

                I think you visit here to convince yourself of some things you read, you evidently have your work cut out for yourself.

                I have no idea why you do that in the first place

                70

              • #
                BilB

                Brian,

                It is the same circulation, only intensified. But the new feature is the amount of air mass that overflows from the Hadly Cell sytem into the polar cell system. There is a new thrust to research upper atmosphere air flows.

                I do this because there are huge holes in the explanations of the processes that are at work. And these gaps need to be filled. The often stated assumption that the detail is too much for the public to take in is utter crap. We need a complete picture of the climate process. It is only in the last 12 months that the atmospheric moisture content aspect has become openly spoken of, for instance, and yet it is the key player in driving extreme weather. Not new in terms of understanding cyclones, but new for its involvement in many other parts of the climate change process.

                04

              • #
                Brian G Valentine

                It is only in the last 12 months that the atmospheric moisture content aspect has become openly spoken of,

                Huh? That makes no sense at all.

                Bill I suspect strongly that you are falling prey to casuistry that will somehow demonstrate that “CO2 in the air ‘does something.’”

                Very evidently global air circulation patterns are as variable as the wind, and if they were not, weather would be quite predictable, wouldn’t it

                40

              • #
                Backslider

                It is only in the last 12 months that the atmospheric moisture content aspect has become openly spoken of

                Among whom?

                40

              • #
                Mark D.

                Bilb, says:

                The air that descends in the Arctic High Pressure cell

                What is the prime force that causes this “decending”?

                is warmer than the surface air

                Why doesn’t this warmer air rise as it must be less dense?

                that is pushed out away from the pole to chill the areas away from the pole thus creating a warming effect.

                That is what you say.

                It is also spreading the ice out to warm faster as the suns energy is absorbed into the gaps between the ice chunks.

                What is the sun’s energy per square meter average throughout the Arctic ocean?

                The ice may be spread further periodically, but the net effect is thinner and ever less ice mass.

                You made that up.

                It is worth a vist to the BOM site. They have some very good eplanatory pages on how high pressure and low pressure systems work. You would have to have been wondering why highs are usual hot and clear

                Highs are not “usually hot” in fact, because they are clear they often are cold. Why is that?

                The site covers this but the hot is to do with compression of the air.

                Again, what is the prime force causing the compression ?

                It’s not that obvious but air at altitude is very low pressure so air coming from 40,000 feet gets squeezed a huge amount on the way down,

                You are confusing pressure with air mass movement. Air masses move mostly horizontal with the Coriolis effect. Just because the air mass is a “high” doesn’t mean that the entire mass moves down from highest altitude to sea level. Then don’t forget that the adiabatic lapse rate is a give and take balance (disregarding precipitation) when the air mass went up it cooled. The net is zero except what was lost to space. The thing you need to remember is that the energy held by the air mass is CONSTANTLY radiating to space. That is 24/7 day and night.

                heating it up relative (that is important) to the air around it. So even though everything at the pole is cold relative to where we are, the air relative to the surface temperatures can be warming.

                Lets suppose you are right here, what is the air temperature at 40,000 feet above the Arctic? When you provide that we can easily calculate the adiabatic caused rise in temperature IF it were to be forced to descend 40,000 feet.

                I am no expert,

                No argument from me on this point.

                but that is as I understand it to be.

                We’ll see if your “understanding” holds up.

                The effect of the CO2 is to promote warmer air and increase ocean warming.

                That is a theory that is being debated and frankly is separate from the discussion above.

                That releases more moisture into the atmosphere.

                This is very important now: where is the heat energy when this happens?

                the increased moisture in conjunction with more warm surface air

                Oops this cannot be true. If you used the heat to cause evaporation it ain’t warm anymore (simple physics).

                increases atmospheric circulation.

                Well, if the heat caused evaporation then the heat energy is contained in the vapor. How does that vapor turn into “circulation”?

                Ultimately that circulation increases at the poles increasing the warming from above, while the warmer currents play on the ice from below (more so in the south than in the north).

                You made a big leap of faith here. You said the heat causes “release” of moisture. Surely you KNOW this means that there aren’t “warmer currents” that energy was use up in the evaporation.

                Heat from the Atlantic conveyor in the current has the difficulty of fighting against the melt fresh water runoff preventing it entering the Arctic circle so there is an unpredictable battle of forces going on there.

                Well that is a bit jumbled but to keep it simple let me ask you: what causes more “conveyor” movement, gravity or rotation of the earth?

                Peru’s and Bolivia’s horror winters were all about Antarctic thaw low salinity water carried on the Humbolt current delivering more than usual “cold” to that area. This water would have carried on up the west coast of the US to deliver colder temps to California as well.

                Speculation. It is just as easy for me to say these “horror winters” were of unknown specific causes and still well within normal variability.

                These things all happen in surges (as Roger jone’s research quantifies) or cycles (fluctuations), but the underlying influences are the ones to understand.

                We agree here completely.

                It is OK to call these things fluctuations and leave them as a mystery when the overall effect is stable climate, but when there is a clearly recogniseable trend one way or the other, we really need to take notice and attempt to figure out what is going on..

                We are not in possession of enough precise data to claim a recognisable trend much less claiming that we know what is going on.

                70

    • #
      Roy Hogue

      I see I started a lot of debate with my statement at #3. That’s good, I like it. Everyone who commented was reasonable and calm and we all have the chance to evaluate everyone’s position.

      I have my view based on both what has and has not happened in the last couple of decades as compared with theory. I see no real evidence of anything abnormal. The minute I can be shown an actual empirical link between CO2 in the atmosphere and anything happening to the weather or the climate I’ll be forced to reconsider what I think.

      Until then I remain a skeptic. :-)

      20

      • #
        Graeme No.3

        Yes, but we have learnt such interesting things e.g. from Bilb I note

        Melting ice is colder than antarctic sea water;
        whereas I always thought that ice melted at 0 ℃ whereas sea water froze around -2 ℃.
        The Humbolt current continues up the Californian coast. Who knew that (apart from Bilb)?

        Less dense warm air descends to push colder air into politically correct areas.

        Flooding in Pakistan causes fires in Russia.

        Bilb is no expert, but I guess the only thing original is his admission.

        20

  • #
    Pathway

    It’s snowing again today in South Dakota. About 10 F below normal in most of the intermountain west.

    110

    • #

      Wyoming had an early storm (as I noted on an earlier thread) that took down hundreds of trees. Light snow at present and 33 degrees F. Today’s high is predicted to maybe reach 40 degrees F. No high over 50 until the weekend.

      This is the weather pattern that was happening when I moved to Wyoming in 1982. It was very cold (-40 degrees F) for much of December, snow drifts over 6 feet high, closed roads and the snow just kept coming and coming. I’m excited that we might actually return to that pattern. I enjoy winter. I was organizing my photos and I was once again reminded that climate “change” is most easily sold to those with very poor memories. This is not “extreme” weather. It’s just a return to an earlier pattern.

      Our expectations are what changed. Ranchers previously understood early snow would destroy your cattle herd. When it happened, people dealt with it. Now they think this is somehow abnormal and want a guarantee that they will get paid no matter if the cows live or die (a trait they may have picked up from the wind industry?)

      151

      • #
        Grant (NZ)

        climate “change” is most easily sold to those with very poor memories

        And those with no memory i.e. those under 25 years of age.

        300

        • #
          Albert

          In Brisbane on the weather after the night news they are already talking about cyclones, storms, floods as if it’s something new and not our normal summer experience. You are right, CC is now a change of season

          210

  • #
    Brian G Valentine

    So people have to pay 50% more for electricity in the UK because the IPCC says there will be global warming sometime

    WHAT IS GOING ON WHY IS THE UK GOVERNMENT TRYING TO KILL THEIR OWN PEOPLE

    482

    • #
      Rereke Whakaaro

      Because they are mostly rabble and foreigners, and therefore several levels below the true Englishman.

      But do not fear, for the tankers have completed their rounds, and all of the important oil fired central heating tanks are full to overflowing, so that is all right then.

      Now, would anybody care for a sherry?

      150

      • #
        Kevin Lohse

        Oil-fired central heating still depends upon electricity to burn the fuel. private diesel genies are beginning to reach premium prices. I’ve filled the woodshed for the open fires and have a Calor Gas camping stove for food and hot drinks. In the end, there’s always the BBQ. There are a lot of chronically ill people dependent upon electrically operated life-support equipment living in their own homes. I doubt that the National Death Service will have a contingency plan to help these folk.

        160

    • #
      handjive

      Hi Brian. You ask, “WHAT IS GOING ON WHY IS THE UK GOVERNMENT TRYING TO KILL THEIR OWN PEOPLE?”

      Dangerously, these murderers, the UK GOV, and that’s what they are, murderers, are engaged in an UN-IPCC environmental pogrom:
      .
      UK aid helps to fund forced sterilisation of India’s poor

      “Tens of millions of pounds of UK aid money from the Department for International Development have been spent on a programme that has forcibly sterilised Indian women and men, the Observer has learned.
      Many have died as a result of botched operations, while others have been left bleeding and in agony.
      A number of pregnant women selected for sterilisation suffered miscarriages and lost their babies.
      With officials and doctors paid a bonus for every operation, poor and little-educated men and women in rural areas are routinely rounded up and sterilised without having a chance to object. (NB. Where has this happened before in history?)
      Activists say some are told they are going to health camps for operations that will improve their general wellbeing and only discover the truth after going under the knife.

      Yet a working paper published by the UK’s Department for International Development in 2010 cited the need to fight climate change as one of the key reasons for pressing ahead with such programmes.
      The document argued that reducing population numbers would cut greenhouse gases, although it warned that there were “complex human rights and ethical issues” involved in forced population control.”
      .
      Seems they ignored the ethical & human rights issues.
      If justice is seen to be done, any politician or bureaucrat who supported and enabled this, must be held to account.
      And, judging by their actions, and by their actions they shall be judged, killing their own people in the name of Global Warming is on the agenda.

      262

    • #
      Brian G Valentine

      WHOever goes around and gives a red thumb to anything I write

      You can take that red thumb and

      173

      • #
        Rereke Whakaaro

        Brian,

        Take a red thumb as indicating that you have managed to get up somebody’s nose. Depending on the context, that may be a very good thing.

        50

        • #
          Roy Hogue

          Brian,

          You do indeed strike a nerve. That the disapproving reader wants to stay anonymous tells us much about the character of some in the opposition camp. So wear the red thumbs with pride. They mean something the disapprovers don’t want them to mean. :-)

          00

      • #
        AndyG55

        And if you constantly get one, even for benign little comments..

        you know you have a stalker that you have REALLY aggravated. :-)

        I suspect that I have a couple, and that is not a problem for me.

        I say….. bring it on, pansies. !

        10

        • #
          Rereke Whakaaro

          Well, I am most definitely not giving you one for that, darling. If you are going to be bitchy, you don’t deserve one.

          00

  • #
    tom0mason

    Some EU governments are warming up their options for winter -

    At today’s meeting of EU Environment Ministers, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Lithuania, Poland and Spain refused to extend the EU-ETS ban on industrial gas offset credits to their national greenhouse gas reduction targets, prompting concern that some EU Member States are not taking their environmental responsibilities seriously.

    http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/WO1310/S00120/6-eu-member-states-keep-doors-open-to-banned-carbon-credits.htm

    90

  • #
    jorgekafkazar

    “The science simply doesn’t exist to accurately predict so far in advance. Weather is too unpredictable.”

    What was your first clue, Sherlock Holmes?

    181

  • #
    Backslider

    Conclusive evidence of global warming…. CO2 is a remarkable gas. It has absorbed all the heat from northern Europe and again is dumping it on Australia.

    251

  • #
    sophocles

    Why am I not surprised? The Sun is sliding into another Solar Minimum.
    Solar Minima are closely coincident with extended cold periods. Just
    maybe there is a cause and effect… During those cold periods there
    were big bad storms, which were well documented. See Dr Brian Fagan’s
    book “The Little Ice Age” for the damage. That book is darned scary
    reading especially about the weather.

    So far Cycle 24 (the current sunspot cycle) is pretty much imitating
    Cycle 5 (starting about 1798). Cycle 5 and cycle 6 make up the Dalton
    Minimum (1798-1840). Charles Dickens did much of his writing over that
    time. He wrote the weather he experienced into his books. Want a preview?
    Read a few of them … Hard Times, Bleak House, A Christmas Carol, Oliver
    Twist, the Pickwick Papers … etc.

    The Eddy Solar Minimum is starting to bite. The last five winters in the
    NH have followed a similar pattern to those in the early stages of the
    Dalton Minimum. The weather is not going to be an exact repeat of the
    Dalton Minimum, but overall, it will bear a lot of similarities. I wouldn’t
    be at all surprised if the Thames froze over again as far south as London
    at least once in the next 10-15 years. The return of the Ice Fairs …could
    be fun…

    If the snows are early, then this could be a very cold winter for Europe.
    Germany may regret its decommissioning of its nuclear power stations.

    Check the winter weather events from 1790 -> 1850 in Europe on Google.
    It makes interesting reading. It’s early days so far, for the Eddy
    Minimum. If higher levels of atmospheric CO2 are supposed to warm us,
    this just might be as bad as it gets (we can hope) but if CO2 has
    beggar-all effect, then it’s gonna get worse.

    I’m not selling my shares in wool just yet!

    You can check the sunspot cycle records at the Solar Influences Data
    analysis Centre (sidc) of Belgium HERE

    You can download the raw, unadulterated and un-”adjusted” data too.

    You can also download (from elsewhere) the English thermometer
    records. Comparing the two could be rather interesting …

    211

    • #

      I heard that the freezing of the River Thames at London was helped by the many weirs and locks. They reduced the flow of water so that it was easier for ice to form on the surface.
      In recent times, the UK Environment Agency.. “has the responsibility of managing the flow of water along the length of the river to prevent flooding on particular reaches and to maintain navigation depths. The volume and speed of water down the river is managed by adjusting the gates at each weir. Occasionally this can result in a fast stream rendering navigation more hazardous.” http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Locks_and_weirs_on_the_River_Thames#Weirs
      So it is conceivable that the Agency could reduce any freezing by opening the gates at the weirs. I guess that would be more effective if there was enough volume of water to produce a faster stream.

      20

      • #
        Graeme No.3

        The main barrier to fast flow in historical times was the old London Bridge. The thick piers caused a backup of water so the up-stream level of the River Thames was often several feet above that below the bridge.

        Any ice coming downstream was very much delayed at the bridge so the surface water was splashed over the floes and frozen in seconds. The net effect was a layer of ice, and any cracking was “self repairing”. Soon the ice became several feet thick and capable of bearing weights.

        When the bridge was removed there were no more Ice Fairs.

        30

        • #
          Ironic Take

          Ah, but the last frost faire was in 1814, 17 years before the old bridge was removed in 1831….

          20

          • #
            Rereke Whakaaro

            Which proves Graeme’s point. If there had been a frost faire after the bridge was removed, then that would have been interesting.

            00

  • #
    john robertson

    I love the MET approach.
    Get it completely wrong yourself.
    Spy on all your competition, especially those who have better success predicting the weather trends.
    Still cannot understand personal failure.
    Throw hissy fit, if I can’t do it then it must be impossible.

    341

  • #
    diogenese2

    Whilst in the UK the Bishop has obtained a presentation made today to the cabinet by our Chief Scientific Officer, who is a medical doctor. The 5th slide shows scenarios of future power supplies which would have Oz Tony ROFLHAO, but to me signify the death of the nation. However a severe winter will precipitate, as well as crystalline water, a political crisis comparable with the 1974 “3 day week”, due to action by the coal miners, through which I lived and worked from 1/1 to 7/3/1974.. David Cameron, as a 7yo boy, would have been delighted to miss school and so, perhaps, is nostalgic. Pity Maggie is no longer here to remind him what happened. In the February Edward Heath called an election on the question of “who runs Britain”. Having just showed that it wasn’t him – he lost!
    At times I think that the CAGW meme is God’s revenge on science for Paleontology and Evolution! As soon as humanity has beggared itself to avoid roasting, he will send the next ice age – but slowly, so that the deluded “scientist” will not stop digging the grave of their own credibility until they reach the 9th circle to discover it’s nature and their fate.
    Salve Dante! – another great flower of the medieval warm period. Oh the irony! – it burns.

    200

    • #
      Len

      The Chief Scientist is referred to as a medical doctor. Most medical “doctors” don’t actually have doctorates but double pass bachelor degrees. They are correctly referred to as medical practitioners. They don’t have the gowns and cowls that people with doctorates have. However, some medical practitioners have completed Ph.Ds, some have completed an MD degree but most have not.

      20

  • #
    diogenese2

    the Bishop =

    10

  • #
    handjive

    Mods, if I may go O/T and re-visit a Jonova earlier post for an update-
    .
    Jonova, October 10, 2013: Paper suggests solar magnetic influence on Earth’s atmospheric pressure

    handjive comment: An anonymous commentator left this at tom nelson:

    Earth stimulation forecast until Sunday: strong quakes 7-8+ R (in places where MASS animal stimulation observed) and or volcanic eruptions and/or severe rain/hail/snow storms, due to stimulating space electricity shown partially in the photo: http://www.tesis.lebedev.ru/en/upload_test/files/kp_20131009.png

    http://www.tesis.lebedev.ru/en/magnetic_storms.html

    Ionospheric stimulation measured by satellites: Solar flares trigger earthquakes – Jain, R., Physical Research Laboratory.
    EACH of the 682 >4.0 EARTHQUAKES under study was preceded by a SOLAR FLARE of B to X class by 10-100 hrs.
    http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2007AGUSMIN33A..03J

    UPDATE:
    October 15, 2013, Killer magnitude 7.2 earthquake hits Philippines, kills 85

    61

  • #
    Bruce

    It used to go like this: when it was hot it was climate, when cold it was weather.

    Then it became: when hot it was climate, when cold it was climate.

    Then when nothing changed, it became the new normal of extreme weather events.

    Is it surprising a simple country boy is confused.

    I guess he will have to rely on the superior wisdom of climate scientists.

    150

    • #
      Rereke Whakaaro

      Have you ever noticed how the words “climate scientists” always refers to an amorphous collective, and is generally written in lower case?

      That convention doesn’t seem to appear to Chemical Engineers, or Nuclear Physicists. Just sayin’.

      150

      • #
        Eddie Sharpe

        Isn’t climate science more a branch of what used to be called Geography, one of the Social Sciences ?

        I used to love Geography at school, but at University everyone wondered what a Geography graduate could do afterwards ( apart from working for the National Survey, or going on endless Climbing trips)..

        90

        • #
          Hasbeen

          Most of those Geography graduates Eddie, went into town planning, & we all know what a mess they made of that.

          So they had to invent some other make-believe discipline no one else had ever heard of, hence climate scientist.

          100

          • #
            ExWarmist

            I always thought climate science was a branch of railway engineering or mammal paleontology or fruit fly genetics as so many people with those sorts of backgrounds seemed to claim to know so much about it.

            150

        • #
          Rereke Whakaaro

          Geography is a prerequisite for being a political policy advisor.

          The first question any politician asks about foreign policy is, “Where is that on the map?”

          60

        • #
          Rereke Whakaaro

          Unless, of course, they happen to be the Foreign Secretary, in which case they usually ask, “Are you sure that’s where it is?”

          50

  • #
    Lars P.

    Last winter the excuse was: due to the strong melting in the Arctic (record ice low) models explain a colder winter in Europe.
    What would be the excuse now? Due to more ice in the Arctic the models explain colder winter in Europe?

    260

    • #
      Kevin Lohse

      It will all be down to Indian and Chinese industrial aerosols forcing climate change into a negative mode, The Heat will continue to hide in the abysmal depths, confounding the laws of Thermodynamics, but what the Hell, it keeps the grant money flowing.

      140

    • #
      Backslider

      Isn’t it just a little strange how they explain the record sea ice extent in Antarctica as being due to the ice melting, causing a layer of fresher water at the surface, thus producing more ice…. yet the same thing doesn’t happen in the Arctic?

      90

      • #
        crakar24

        Well BS even if they got it right in the Antarctic it would be classified as a negative feedback, but negative feedbacks are bad so we simply demonise increasing co2 for causing more Antarctic ice oh and its worse than we thought (worse because the models predicted less ice, ergo AGW is having a more pronounced effect than we thought).

        What tard would actually believe this crap????????????????

        50

  • #
    Scott

    “A cold winter may plunge Europe into an energy crisis because of the over-reliance on renewable energy and the shutting of natural gas-fired generators, Cap Gemini SA (CAP) said in a report.

    This is what I have said to the hand wringers all along who spout the “what if their right” meame or the precautionary principle, they never consider the “what if they are wrong” side of the equation and its consequences. They always assume there isnt a negative to their argument.

    150

  • #
    Stephen Richards

    Brian G Valentine

    October 16, 2013 at 3:44 am · Reply

    So people have to pay 50% more for electricity in the UK because the IPCC says there will be global warming sometime

    WHAT IS GOING ON WHY IS THE UK GOVERNMENT TRYING TO KILL THEIR OWN PEOPLE

    Brian, it’s due mainly to the UK Climate Control Act passed by their previous labour gov. On the day they passed it 28/oct it snowed in London for the first time on an oct day in many, many years. The act demands that they reduce CO² to stupid levels in a stupid time period in a stupid manner or they will fine themselves. Stupid is what stupid does and it is very difficult to find more stupid than in the UK parliament.

    400

  • #
    Backslider

    The warming in Australia is really rearing its ugly head.

    20

    • #
      gnome

      It’s supposed to be warm here in SE NSW, so I came south a month early this year (I hate October in the wet tropics).

      The rule goes – first frost Anzac Day, last frost Labor Day. I had frost just north of Dubbo on the day after Labor Day, and frost every day since. And Labor Day was a week later than usual this year. Yesterday Canberra had a minimum of -2 (celsius).

      That’s a heatwave??

      40

  • #
    Ian Hill

    Meanwhile this is last night’s forecast for Adelaide today:

    “Partly cloudy. Hot with fresh to strong and gusty northerly winds. Isolated showers developing during the evening. Winds northerly 20 to 30 km/h increasing to 30 to 45 km/h early in the morning then increasing to 55 km/h before shifting west to southwesterly 30 to 45 km/h late afternoon.”

    The predicted maximum? Just 30 degrees C. I have never seen 30C described as “hot” before in the context of Australian weather.

    This morning’s version has been amended to:

    “Partly cloudy. Isolated showers developing in the evening. Winds north to northwesterly 35 to 50 km/h increasing to northwest 40 to 60 km/h during the day, ahead of a west to southwesterly change 35 to 50 km/h late afternoon.”

    still with a predicted maximum of 30C. Last night’s forecast must have been written by a “newbie”.

    90

  • #
    DT

    Meanwhile in the Daily Telegraph on Monday and Tuesday a political reporter wrote about the horrors of global warming and climate change, his first story appeared to have the now privatised Flannery climate change office fongerprints on it and the second story confirmed this. To add to the scare campaign extreme Green City of Sydney Mayor Clover Less provided her scary story to the newspaper. As carbon tax con wipe out day approaches no doubt we will see much more of this nonsense.

    50

    • #
      Bob Malloy

      Meanwhile in the Daily Telegraph on Monday and Tuesday a political reporter wrote about the horrors of global warming and climate change

      Daily Telegraph? You must be mistaken, the Tele is a Murdoch rag, spreading lies an misinformation from the skeptics,

      sarc/

      00

  • #
    PeterS

    I see they are still confusing weather with climate change. They all should go back to school.

    30

  • #
    Peter Miller

    Those living in the UK will doubtless be comforted by the recent and continuing ‘enormous’ investment in wind power, while all other reliable and cheaper energy sources are shunned, or sneered at, by a greenatic political elite.

    Still, I suppose it is some comfort to know just how much electricity will be generated by wind power in periods of extreme cold, when there are coincident high pressure systems dominating the weather. This is a little bit of info for the many ignorant trolls out there: wind power is best also described as a “little bit” during periods of high pressure.

    Unfortunately, green loonyism on power generation needs a horrendous winter and massive numbers of deaths from cold exposure before those, that pass for a political elite, finally understand the need to adopt common sense energy policies and accept that coal is not a dirty word.

    230

  • #
    michael hammer

    Has anyone noticed that when there is extreme cold in the northern hemisphere its hotter than average down here in the southern hemisphere and vice versa. I have been watching this for a while and it seems to happen way more than chance both ways (a cold winter down here means a hot summer up there). I also note melting sea ice in the Arctic yet growing sea ice in Antarctica. Its not a monotonic trend because hot and cold in each hemisphere can reverse from one year to the next but it does sort of suggest an instability in energy balance between the hemispheres. Hardly GLOBAL warming but in a highly non linear system that sort of thing can have a residual global impact. Maybe something worth a bit of investigation.

    100

    • #
      Rereke Whakaaro

      That is why the catastrophists only ever talk about average global temperature, and only talk in terms of climate.

      There world is totally divorced from any form of reality, and totally oblivious to the weather that can kill you if you are unprepared.

      10

  • #
    Eddie Sharpe

    There was some Comment on the Met Office Blog on Saturday about the Met Office not having a Clue and going off to check Piers Corby ‘s WeatherAction site for the Real Weather.

    I see it has been deleted though.

    120

  • #
    MartinX

    Perhaps they will have to rename wind turbines to Blizzard Turbines.

    30

  • #
    Anton

    It needs to be made clear that weather prediction is done in two ways: for a few days ahead by physics, by integrating the Navier-Stokes equations of fluid flow for the atmosphere, until the errors caused by the finite resolution of the datagrid of initial conditions become significant; for weeks ahead, by statistical pattern analysis. It would be helpful if it is stated which method a forecast in the 1-3 week range is based on, as anything shorter than that is always going to be physics and anything longer is always going to be statistical.

    “BRITAIN is braced for the “worst winter in decades” with the first major snowfall expected in weeks” – Daily Express. That’s one of the UK tabloids which loves to sell copy by putting extreme weather scare stories on the front page. It might for example talk about “Minus 10 freeze coming” when the temperature is going to be minus 8 only at the top of a mountain in Scotland but above freezing in population centres. Moreover, in mid-October major snowfall is ALWAYS expected in weeks. What unmitigated tabloid drivel!

    20

    • #
      Backslider

      We are talking about what is actually happening, not what the tabloids are bleating.

      30

    • #
      Brian G Valentine

      integrating the Navier-Stokes equations of fluid flow for the atmosphere, until the errors caused by the finite resolution of the datagrid of initial conditions become significant;

      The errors in the initial data of a hyperbolic set of equations of evolution are magnified in time.

      Meaning that “weather forecasting” weeks in advance are meaningless

      UK Met completely underestimated last N Hemisphere’s winter, although gives themselves license to call winter predictions they don’t like “irresponsible.”

      One would have thought that the lot of progressive imbeciles residing in MET who were responsible for deaths of the 2012 winter would have been relieved of duty, they were probably promoted based on their confidence in an IPCC report

      Death of science in the UK

      100

  • #
    Manfred

    The global farce of politicised climate is imploding before our eyes. With growing power impoverishment a new ‘norm’ perhaps? The police will be odered to protect parks and recreation facilities as the unter folk decide that the park benches and trees have become legitmate fuel sources.

    ‘Let them eat cake’ grows a bit thin doesn’t it?

    121

  • #
    King Geo

    So another freezing European winter is predicted – that will make it 5 in the last 6 years – and 2013/2014 will be worse it seems. Well just wait until the GM kicks in later this decade – you ain’t seen nothing yet!!! Europe will be snowbound from mid Autumn to mid Spring – oh dear 6 months of misery – but the UK will be OK – they have their giant turbines, and Spain & Germany their solar panels – I am sure the citizens of these EU countries will adjust to the inevitable energy rationing and the suffering hordes will scorn those who promoted the failed “Theory of AGW” resulting in the suicidal fast tracking to hopelessly inefficient, mega expensive & uneconomic “Renewable Energy”. Winston Churchill will be rolling in his grave.

    51

  • #
    Eddie Sharpe

    OT. OK, here it is at last Backdate to the Future

    TONY Abbott has flagged retrospective legislation to backdate the abolition of the carbon tax to July 1 next year”

    Repeal & repent. If the ALP want to carry on obstructing the Will of the People perhaps that’s just as well, to remind the People that they cannot be trusted, ever again.

    101

    • #
      scaper...

      Abbott and Hunt are playing with Labors’ heads. Personally, I’d like to see a DD election to clean out the watermelons.

      Mentioned it on Chris Kenny’s blog yesterday. He has the view that a DD would possibly see more Greens in the Senate. I disagree.

      That party is in decline, the quicker the better, I reckon.

      61

      • #

        Scaper,

        oddly, a DD would most probably see more Greens in The Senate.

        At a Half Senate Election, they need to get a full quote of around 15%, so in virtually every case, they are fighting for that last sixth position.

        However, at a full Senate election, (DD) they only need a full quota of around 7.5%.

        So, that being the case, they would be assured of One Senator with a full quota and then fighting it out for one of those last 2 contested places in each State.

        What we, (or even perhaps Coalition strategists) are hoping for is that by mindlessly opposing the repeal of the CO2 Tax, the fundament will fall out of the Greens Party support, and they will gradually be wiped out, sort of like the old DLP, and then the Australian Democrats, gone with but a whimper.

        Tony.

        50

        • #
          scaper...

          Tony, the 2010 election was the Greens high water mark of 13.1%. The 2013 election the Greens garnered 8.6% of the Senate vote and at this stage have gained no Senate seats but there is a recount under way in WA.

          Either way, they stand to lose Senate seats, be it DD or the next half Senate election.

          The carbon tax is the end of the Greens as was the GST to the Democrats.

          30

  • #
    pat

    on abc’s tony delroy “nightlife” prog last nite, i heard the final 15 minutes or so with callers being asked about the abolition of the carbon tax. it isn’t up on the website as yet.
    ridiculous callers begging for the tax to stay, cos otherwise we’d look like absolute morons to the rest of the world, and the like. one caller begging for an ETS, to which Delroy at least commented that in EU the price has collapsed. caller says yes, but it will go up over time, as if that was a positive. if only these ABC listeners were actually aware of what is going on in the real world.

    BBC radio reported on the following last nite, but have no link to the story, so am pasting a Daily Mail piece from a few days ago, covering the same issue:

    12 Oct: UK Daily Mail: Daniel Martin: Britain and Germany ‘in deal to defy EU meddlers over regulations on car-makers and banks
    Germany wants to delay the introduction of caps on carbon dioxide emissions that could harm BMW, Mercedes-Benz and Audi
    UK wants help to protect the banking sector, which is lobbying to reduce the impact of Brussels regulations
    Britain was last night reported to be in talks with Germany over a secret deal to help their car industry in return for support for our banks…
    Last night Lib Dem sources told The Times that the proposed deal also included a request for help with Britain’s attempt to overturn an EU cap on bank bonuses, which would limit them to 200 per cent of salary.
    A government source confirmed that it involved trading support for the banking sector in return for helping German car companies…
    George Osborne wants to strike down plans for the cap on bonuses, which takes effect in the new year…
    One Lib Dem MEP involved in the negotiations over the carbon dioxide cap suggested that, by seeking to support Germany, Britain could end up penalising its own car industry.
    Chris Davies, a member of the European Parliament’s negotiating team on the issue, said: ‘Giving priority to the interests of German luxury carmakers may help David Cameron benefit the bankers who can afford to buy them, but it doesn’t help British drivers or carmakers here.’
    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2455549/Britain-Germany-deal-defy-EU-car-makers-banks-regulations.html

    30

  • #
    pat

    btw when Delroy ends the call-in, the final caller (a female) says democracy is great, but don’t you sometimes wish we had a benign dictatorship willing to tell us what is good for us. Delroy responds (paraphrasing): he he, that’s how it works.

    10

  • #
    RoHa

    Coal? They used to have that stuff in Britain.

    30

    • #
      Peter Miller

      There is still plenty of coal left in the UK – billions of tonnes of the stuff.

      The problems are:

      1. NIMBY.
      2. A blanket ban on open pit mining.
      3. Relatively narrow seams of coal.
      4. Relatively high sulphur content of much of the remaining coal.
      5. The greenatic, so called political elite, to whom the word coal is an evil word and a cause to fight against more worthy than the crusades of the Middle Ages.

      61

  • #
    pat

    some more reporting:

    13 Oct: UK Financial Times: Germany nears victory over EU car emissions curb
    By Joshua Chaffin in Brussels and Chris Bryant in Frankfurt
    Germany’s triumph was made possible, according to diplomats, after the UK, France and Poland dropped their previous support for the legislation, which would require carmakers to reduce their fleets’ average emissions of carbon dioxide to 95 grammes per kilometre by 2020.
    The episode has both enraged some member states and served as confirmation of Germany’s stature as the crisis-hit EU’s most powerful member state – one whose consent is increasingly necessary for any initiative to go forward…
    Representatives from those governments were not available or
    ***declined to comment. “It’s all about national interest,” one diplomat said…
    http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/0f664bc2-3409-11e3-8f1d-00144feab7de.html#axzz2hpqvbB4u

    15 Oct: Wall St Journal:Anton Troianovski: Timing of BMW Donation to Merkel’s Party Draws Fire
    Gift by Auto Maker’s Heirs Came as Germany Pushed Back on EU Emissions Proposal
    BERLIN— Angela Merkel’s conservative party came under scrutiny Tuesday over a nearly $1 million donation made last week by the family behind BMW as the German chancellor’s government was lobbying to thwart European Union plans for stricter limits on car emissions…
    Germany’s push against draft EU regulations for tougher carbon-dioxide-emission limits forced negotiators back to the drawing board on Monday, handing a victory to German auto makers…
    On Tuesday, the German government disclosed that BMW’s controlling shareholders—heiress Johanna Quandt and her children Susanne Klatten and Stefan Quandt —had each donated $310,000 to Ms. Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union, or CDU. Taken together, those donations represented the largest gift to a single party in Germany in years, according to the list of political donations disclosed by Germany’s Parliament…
    http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702304330904579137651526605472

    moral of the story? Australia should do what is in its own national interest.

    20

  • #

    In the main body of text, Joanne mentions that the UK Met said the following:

    “Met Office spokesman Nicky Maxey was critical of the reports, saying those producing them were “gazing into their crystal ball”. “The science simply doesn’t exist to accurately predict so far in advance. Weather is too unpredictable.”

    There’s something really odd about that.

    The reports that Maxey so railed against were for dire forecasts for the coming Winter, in other words the next four/five Months or so, and he referred to these (calculated) reports as crystal ball gazing.

    Now, a quick Concorde trip from the UK to Brisbane.

    The BOM says that this Summer, Queensland will see 4 Cyclones and one of them will cross the Coast.

    Just wonderin’ here.

    This is a (calculated) report for the coming four/five Months.

    So, if a long range weather forecaster makes predictions for the near term, it’s crystal ball gazing, while if a BOM makes predictions for the near term, it’s umm not.

    As a sidelight, the local weather presenter here in Rockhampton, and give the lady her due, because she is an actual Meteorologist herself, was reading the weather report off the autocue, you know, hidden off screen, so the presenter can point to the superimposed map and look like they know what they are talking about.

    Well out came this little gem, when reporting that BOM forecast for Cyclones this coming Season.

    The Bureau has predicted that 4 Cyclones will form off Queensland this Season, and that 25% of them have the possibility of crossing the Coastline.

    I guess that the figure of TWENTY FIVE sounds a little scarier than one.

    Tony.

    110

  • #
    pat

    15 Oct: Australian: ALP must ‘back repeal’ of carbon tax, says business
    by Sid Maher and Ewin Hannan
    ACTU president Ged Kearney: “Putting a price on carbon was a major policy achievement of the Labor government, and recognises that the vast majority of experts believe that human activity is causing global warming,” she said.
    Joe de Bruyn, national secretary of the Shop, Distributive and Allied Employees Association, said passing the Coalition’s proposed legislation would “make Australia a laughing stock in the world”.
    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/policy/alp-must-back-repeal-of-carbon-tax-says-business/story-e6frg6xf-1226739917194

    30

  • #
    Hasbeen

    It is an ill wind indeed.

    One can feel sorry for the Europeans, but still rejoice in their continued cold winters. We can still hope that this one will bring a catastrophe that highlights the growing realization of the uselessness of wind power.

    Yes many already realise it, but it will take a catastrophe of some proportion to make headlines in Oz, & embolden our new PM to dice the alternate energy plans, already enacted.

    I believe it is what he wants to do, & knows he should, but I’m afraid it will require an injection of backbone before he raises the courage to actually does it. A massive & obvious failure of Europe’s wind power is just what we need.

    80

  • #
    warcroft

    .
    Hi Jo. . .

    Off topic, but I wanted to share this little discussion over at Gizmodo. I think youll be interested in what a particular commenter has to say about you.

    From this article:
    http://www.gizmodo.com.au/2013/10/where-is-the-coalition-going-with-the-nbn/#comment-1785506

    MatthewHarper Guest
    October 14, 2013 2:20 pm
    This ‘gadget’ site is already painfully skewed to the left with its climate change rubbish, and now its publishing Labor MP opinion pieces. Thanks. Goodbye.

    danofmelb @danofmelb
    October 15, 2013 8:02 am
    This is not unlike the climate-change debate: why give the ‘other side’ 50% coverage if 95% of people disagree with it?

    warcroft @warcroft
    October 15, 2013 10:04 am
    95%? Really? I’d like to see those figures.

    danofmelb @danofmelb
    October 15, 2013 12:59 pm
    it’s more than 95% but I was being generous.
    Here’s the figures you asked for:
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Surveys_of_scientists'_views_on_climate_change
    looking down the timeframes you can see the consensus gets stronger and stronger.
    Hope that helps.

    danofmelb @danofmelb
    October 16, 2013 7:38 am
    Sorry I should have said “People with the qualifications to make their opinions matter”.
    Most people do not fall into that category and I’d stupidly assumed the very specific determination of qualification was not going to be required for a good-faith discussion.

    I would never quote the opinion of the public as most of the public know shit-all about science – ask someone to explain how the scientific method works and you’ll know if they should even have an opinion on the topic.

    I was always afraid that the predictive nature of climate science would lead to science losing power in the public sphere due to predictive modelling being exactly that: predictive. How many of us berate the Meterologist for getting the weather wrong when they only predict a week in advance at most?

    But I take your point – I will ensure to spell out with precision the difference between ‘people’ and ‘qualified people with a recognised qualification in a relevant field’.

    warcroft @warcroft
    October 15, 2013 5:03 pm
    The reason I asked to see those figures was because I knew you would link the ’97% of scientists’.
    That claim is about the biggest lie in the climate change debate.
    I suggest you read this:
    http://joannenova.com.au/2013/09/cooks-97-consensus-is-a-case-study-of-agnotology-ignorance-and-misinformation/
    And this:
    http://joannenova.com.au/2013/05/cooks-fallacy-97-consensus-study-is-a-marketing-ploy-some-journalists-will-fall-for/

    danofmelb @danofmelb
    October 16, 2013 7:29 am
    So you disregard all the evidence that an enormous, overwhelming majority of truely qualified scientists agree – because:
    “JoNova
    A science presenter, writer, speaker & former TV host; author of The Skeptic’s Handbook (over 200,000 copies distributed & available in 15 languages).”
    Tells you too?

    Jo falls into the category of a scientists that doesn’t work in climate science but has a career in communicating science. It’s easy to be skeptical and a scientists obligation to be so however she has not even attempted to support any of the science that shows cignificant changes in climate over time due to human factors. That would be real communicating.

    Her Qualifications:
    Joanne Nova finished her Bachelor of Science degree with first class honours, A+ grades and both the FH Faulding, and The Swan Brewery Prizes, at the University of Western Australia. She majored in Microbiology, Molecular Biology and doing honours research into DNA markers for use in Muscular Dystrophy trials. She also has a Graduate Certificate in Science Communication from the ANU, and worked for three years as an Associate Lecturer for the Graduate Diploma in Science Communication program at the Australian National University.

    Whilst I agree that consensus knowledge is not knowledge – climate science has the unique issue of being predictive and was always going to be a hot issue for debate due to science preferring for the facts to speak for themselves – however climate change forced scientists to be predictive due to the public wanting support for what appeared to be growing anecdotal experience that man made factors were screwing the climate.

    It’s like a Geologist talking on Microbiology.
    This is why we cannot change – people more keen on one-upmanship rather than conceding a point. Good luck to you and Jo with you climate-change skepticism.

    And further:
    http://www.informationisbeautiful.net/visualizations/climate-change-deniers-vs-the-consensus/

    ^^ check out the lovely infographic which comes from the following site:
    http://www.informationisbeautiful.net/

    What’s the saying? You can lead a horse to water…
    Interesting to see the climate-change supporters now in the majority and the deniers in the minority – only took a decade for the roles to shift.

    krunel Guest
    October 15, 2013 10:40 pm
    A few weeks ago I spent some time looking at Jo Nova’s site. At first blush your use of the phrase “factual science based arguments” seemed spectacularly unrealistic. And then I realised, given a certain slant, and compared to the simpler phrase “science”, it could describe: opinion, speculation, commentary, misinterpretation, cherry-picking.

    20

  • #
    Hasbeen

    If this European winter does turn out as cold as it appears it might, & rolling blackouts do occur, It could become interesting.

    On those really cold days, usually windless, I wonder how consumers blacked out, & freezing, would respond if told that power from the grid, that they are denied, will be used to keep the windmills warm.

    In such a situation, I know what French farmers would do to the windmills if they had them. I wonder if the Poms are becoming more militant as they suffer?

    40

    • #

      Calling all Don Quixote’s. Time to tell Sancho Panza to make ready.

      Tony.

      30

    • #
      Mark D.

      I wouldn’t wish cold on anyone. If things get “interesting” from the cold in Europe I’d be really happy to huddle up in my abode stocked with warmth, food, things that go bang, a bottle or two and some distance away from the mobs.

      40

  • #
    MacHaggis

    Climate science purports to be predictive and makes predictions with the use of climate models. There are at present some 73 models vying for attention as predictors of climate. For some years now these models have been making predictions that are way off course and, indeed so far off course, that one is tempted to say their predictions are falsified. Howard Hayden makes the point that the models are not to blame. They do what they are told according to the formulae built in to them. Their errors are caused by human influence – they do what their humans tell them.
    It is not necessary to have the insights of Matthew Harper to be able to understand the problems of what passes as climate science in some quarters – only a modicum of common sense in most cases and in others some understanding of science and how it works. Mr Harper could do with taking a good dose of common sense (love the “cignificant”) before indulging in silly criticism.
    Keep up the good work

    40

  • #
    MacHaggis

    In my last comment I should have referred to danofmelb rather than Harper

    00

  • #
    Reinder van Til

    From personal experience, being an amateur meteorologist for about 35 years now I can say that reports that predict a harsh cold winter are premature. The growing ice on the artic means the northpole is cooling. This means that the difference in temperature between northpole and equator increased a little. This stimulates a west circulation from the ocean with more storms and less blockades from high pressure areas on the continent. That could lead to milder winters and cooler summers in my region of the world.

    Strong west circulation in my region:

    http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/2007/Rrea00120070116.gif

    Strong blockade by high pressure area in my region:

    http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1997/Rrea00119971216.gif

    The last chart lead to the eleven city ice skating tour in January 1997.

    00

    • #
      Reinder van Til

      A strong west circulation means that mild ocean air is transported deep into even Russia. A blockade by high pressure area means very cold air from Russia is transported to the west.

      00

  • #
    Warwick Hughes

    Wife says she just heard on Ten’s 5pm TV news that unexpected snow in Tibet has fallen where Australians wanted to walk. I can not find it using Google.
    Anybody else hear this.

    20

  • #
    Ricko

    Just had sleet falling here on the outskirts of Sapporo today – Cooler air being pulled down by Typhoon Wipha – Anyone know where you can get a “realistic Northern Hemisphere or preferably Asian” Seasonal Forecast – and yes it is a bit chilly.

    10

    • #
      ROM

      Don’t know how good the Chinese forecasts are but at least they don’t have an overt ideologically based global warming bias in their predictions.

      Beijing Climate Center The seasonal forecast link is half way down on the right or as below for East Asia temps.

      http://cmdp.ncc.cma.gov.cn/pred/en_cs.php

      00

      • #
        Ricko

        Thanks Rom – I dont know if the Japanese Meteorology Department have bought into the CAGW thing but according to the locals the last 3 winters have been very cold winters here in Hokkaido and since I cant read Japanese – then anything that can point in the right direction is helpful. Temps here can get as low as minus 23 to – minus 25 so to be prepared is pretty important. Last year the coldest temps recorded in our area was -18 and a family of 4 died in their car when hit by a blizzard about 20 ks away from our place. So these “warmer winters” predictions can lull people into a false sense of security – the results can be be pretty catastrophic. Shows how important it is to try to be as accurate as possible when peoples lives can be at stake.

        20

  • #
    handjive

    Well, Thursday, 17/10/13, and I am currently watching ABC24LIve, Greens leader Christine Milne demanding Tony Abbott say the words, “Global Warming.”

    As this post shows, it is NOT GLOBAL WARMING.

    What a failure.

    10

  • #
    Richard

    What really pisses me off about this is that, when we saved up a bit for a dream skiing holiday in St Anton in Jan 1991, there was very little snow. Just man-made ice up high and slush on the lower slopes. The really good parts of the area were closed because there was insufficient snow. There were broken hips almost everywhere you looked. It was the worst skiing season since skiing was invented. A total waste of money apart from the good food and meeting some nice people. And now there’s snow and I’m too old to take advantage? Aaaagh!

    10

    • #
      Chris M

      Never too old to ski Richard! My teenage son decided he liked skiing last year (a fantastic season) so I took it up again after a break of twenty years, now in my fifties. Skiing is an expensive sport so it’s logical that a greater proportion of people approaching retirement should be able to afford it. The season just past was a “lousy” one overall in Oz but the snowmaking these days keeps it enjoyable.

      I have heard that groups of Aussie retirees travel to Japan in the northern winter to take advantage of relatively cheap packages, uncrowded slopes and their superb powder conditions. If you have a good enough technique, skiing doesn’t have to be a strenuous sport. A great antidote to the winter blues!

      00

  • #

    I’m forecasting an intense cold shot from ~7th Jan to the end of Feb:
    http://linkd.in/1332cvp

    00

  • #
    Robert

    Andrew Bolt’s blog appears to be seizing up so I’ll post it here. The media have made sure that we know that Sydney has reached its third highest October temperature for the year, but have forgotten about Canberra’s record cold.

    Closer to home, Renmark has had a minimum of 0.1 on Tu and 0.5 today. Its previous record low was 0.8. A quick search of the internet found nothing, not even the local papers seem to have noticed despite that a frost at this time of year would ruin many growers. Can you imagine if a record high for October caused crop losses?

    10

  • #
    George

    I haven’t seen any woolly bear caterpillars, but the eastern white pines (Pinus strobus) are shedding needles at a rate not seen in my 25 years hereabout (eastern Pennsylvania, USA). Might they suspect something about the coming snow load? :)

    00

  • #
    JW

    Well, as December 2013 comes to a close, we find that over pretty well all of Europe its been one of the warmest on record…. temperatures in double figures over much of the UK, Benelux and Germany and very few frosts. And this trend is supposed to see through the rest of the month and into January. Moscow as been above freezing for most of the past three weeks. Wait… isn’t the winter of 2013 in Europe supposed to be the coldest in 200 years according to the skeptics!!!!!????? I can’t wait to see you bunch try to talk your way out of this one….

    [It's called weather? In case you didn't notice there was snow in Jerusalem and record setting cold in North America most of November. I also note that Arctic ice is trending higher and the Antarctic recorded the lowest cold temperature ever seen on Earth. Now why don't you post in a current topic?] ED

    21

  • #
    Bob Meyrick

    [It's called weather? In case you didn't notice there was snow in Jerusalem and record setting cold in North America most of November. I also note that Arctic ice is trending higher and the Antarctic recorded the lowest cold temperature ever seen on Earth. Now why don't you post in a current topic?] ED

    Since the article was about a predicted snowy winter, which didn’t materialise, it’s always worth checking up on climate sceptics claims.

    Pity yours didn’t work out, eh? http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-03-03/europe-poised-for-mild-march-as-warm-atlantic-air-cuts-power-use.html

    [Bob, I invite you to post in current topics this one is old. The first sentence of the post sums it up nicely in Joann's words.] ED

    01