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Snow, blizzards, early winter in Europe, UK Met Office says horror winter predictions “are irresponsible”

This means nothing of course. Just weather. (No, actually I do mean that, though I expect those who look for excuses to complain will say I’m not allowed to discuss weather conditions. It’s a “dog-whistle”, or something.) For balance I’ll point out it’s been record hot on the East Coast of Australia. (Sydney’s  “third hottest October day since records began 154 years ago.”)

But seriously, it’s interesting (and sad) that snow in Dakota killed 100,000 head of cattle, that early heavy snow has fallen in Europe (nearly a meter in Switzerland), it’s been called the worst start to “winter for 200 years”. The snowfall in Germany was the largest at the start of winter since records started in 1800.

Probably most interesting of all is that long range forecasters are issuing catastrophic warnings (they are quite extreme) but the UK Met says that’s “irresponsible”, and that trying to predict the weather that far in advance is “crystal ball” gazing. (Oh really?)  They didn’t seem so concerned about predicting hot horrors on longer timeframes…

It’s been an early cold winter already in Europe

NoTricksZone “Most Severe Winter Start In 200 Years!” + Euro Municipalities Now Ignoring Foolish Predictions Of Warm Winters

“German RTL television last night here (starting at 4:30) called it the “most severe start of winter in 200 years!“, saying many meteorologists were caught by surprise. Up to half a meter of snow fell at some locations.

Unexpected snowfall brings early winter chaos to Bavaria

DW: “Winter has come early in Bavaria. Unexpected heavy snowfall has brought traffic to a halt in southern Germany, as well as Austria and Switzerland, and left thousands of people without power.

Germany’s DWD weather service recorded 35 centimeters of snowfall, the most at the beginning of the winter half-year since measurements began in 1800. Some parts of Switzerland experienced as much as 80 centimeters of snowfall.

 Long range forecasters are predicting savage, record cold in the UK

Piers Corbyn, managing director of WeatherAction is offering their October forecasts at half price due to “imminent extreme events in Britain, Ireland, EU and USA”. But other long range forecasters are bleak as well, like Vantage Weather:

“We are looking at a potentially paralysing winter, the worst for decades, which could at times grind the nation to a halt.

Exacta Weather predicts the worst winter for more than 100 years:

Express UK: “BRITAIN is braced for the “worst winter in decades” with the first major snowfall expected in weeks. He blamed the ‘poorly positioned” jet stream which is expected to be ‘blocked” south of the UK, allowing a continual flow of freezing Arctic air. James Madden, forecaster for Exacta Weather, said it was likely to be the worst winter for more than 100 years. He said: ‘A horror winter scenario is likely to bring another big freeze with copious snow for many parts.

The UK Met Office disagrees and  “blasts weather reports of “worst winter in decades'”

The Met Office says these forecasts are “irresponsible”, though I can’t say the Met Office inspire confidence in their ability to do any better:

 Northdevonjournal.co.uk “Met Office spokesman Nicky Maxey was critical of the reports, saying those producing them were “gazing into their crystal ball”.  “The science simply doesn’t exist to accurately predict so far in advance. Weather is too unpredictable.”

Meanwhile Europe is switching back to coal and may face an “energy crisis”

They put in too many renewables apparently:
Bloomberg: “A cold winter may plunge Europe into an energy crisis because of the over-reliance on renewable energy and the shutting of natural gas-fired generators, Cap Gemini SA (CAP) said in a report.  Gas-fired generators are running at utilization rates that are too low to meet their fixed costs as grids favor subsidized renewable power, the Paris-based management consultancy said today. About 60 percent or 130,000 megawatts of Europe’s gas-generation capacity is at risk of closing by 2016, it said, citing IHS Inc. (IHS) estimate
Euractive: “The French multinational company Cap Gemini warned in their European Observatory of Energy Markets that energy security in Europe was under threat and that the region could soon be exposed to massive power outages during the winter, due to a lack of production capacity. They blame wind turbines.

Things are cold in parts of the US as well

Early snow kills thousands of cattle in South Dakota

PIERRE, S.D. (AP) – “A record-breaking storm that dumped 4 feet of snow in parts of western South Dakota left ranchers dealing with heavy losses, in some cases perhaps up to half their herds, as they assess how many of their cattle died during the unseasonably early blizzard…

At least four deaths were attributed to the weather, including a South Dakota man who collapsed while cleaning snow off his roof.

“It’s bad. It’s really bad. I’m the eternal optimist and this is really bad,” Cammack said. “The livestock loss is just catastrophic. … It’s pretty unbelievable.”

In South Dakota, the 19 inches of snow that fell in Rapid City on Friday broke the city’s 94-year-old one-day snowfall record for October by about 9 inches, according to the National Weather Service. The city also set a record for snowfall in October, with a total of 23.1 inches during the storm. The previous record was 15.1 inches in October 1919.

Early snow arrives in Arizona. It’s just a couple of inches. Snow already in California too.

Hat tip to Climate Depot and to GWPF

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