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There’s another round of push-poll fake surveys telling us how much the public want action on climate change. Part of the aim is to scare politicians and trick them into thinking that voters won’t vote for skeptics and will be happy to pay more for electricity, food, cars, and everything. But the awful truth is that the voters “vote” with their own wallets every time they fly, and 98% of them don’t care enough to spend a single dollar. That’s even when the airlines do all the work and just ask their customers to “tick a box”. So that’s six bucks to save the world but hardly anyone can be botheredClimate change: Half world’s biggest airlines don’t offer carbon offsetting By Dulcie Lee & Laura Foster, BBC News, May 2019
When airlines do offer a [carbon offset] scheme, generally fewer than 1% of flyers are choosing to spend more. Prices vary but a return flight from London to Malaga, Spain, would cost around £4 to offset. That tells us exactly how much the punters are panicking about climate change, and suggests that most western democracies are absolutely ripe-for-the-picking for any politician with the balls to make the case that changing the global weather will cost a fortune, and the costs will all go back to voters, and it’s an insane waste of money to even try. The only reason voters ever tick the “we should do more” box is when they think “the government”, i.e. someone else, will have to pay for it. And this dismal result is despite 30 years of non-stop propaganda and lectures. Even The Greta Effect is not making much difference. The headlines read “Greta Thunberg and ‘flight shame’ are fuelling a carbon offset boom but the truth is that it’s a small rise on a small number: Verra, the biggest program for voluntary credits globally, has seen the monthly retirement, or usage, rate for offsets jump about 23 per cent this year to 3.8 million tons a month. — AFR, August 2019. So 1% becomes 1.23%. Some “boom”? Shame on the Fin Review for forgetting to mention the startling nothing-burger that this news really is. There is major social pressure to “be green” and yet still they fly…Look at the Wired headline: Carbon offsetting isn’t a cure-all for your filthy flying habit Sabrina Weiss, Wired, 25th August, 2019 Susanne Becken, a professor of sustainable tourism, tells us flights are too cheap and we really shouldn’t just fly for fun: The bitter truth is that there is only one way to reduce aviation emissions – to fly less, says Becken. “The key problem is of course that flying is far too cheap and too many people often travel for reasons that are not always necessary,” she says, highlighting that putting an end to the dump fares offered by low-cost carriers such as Ryanair would go a long way. Britons still take three to four holiday trips each year, half of which are to foreign destinations. Next on the Green wish-list, obviously, flight bans: Some governments have suggested going further. In Germany, the Green Party has suggested banning domestic air travel altogether to force Germans to travel by train, which pollutes less. As long as the carbon religion hasn’t collapsed, the perfect storm is brewing. In 2018, the aviation industry emitted about 859 million tonnes of CO2, which is 2% of all human emissions, rising to 2.5% any minute: Air travel emissions are rising faster than anyone expectedBy Hiroko Tabuchi, New York Times Over all, air travel accounts for about 2.5 percent of global carbon dioxide emissions — a far smaller share than emissions from passenger cars or power plants. Still, one study found that the rapid growth in plane emissions could mean that by 2050, aviation could take up a quarter of the world’s “carbon budget,” or the amount of carbon dioxide emissions permitted to keep global temperature rise to within 1.5 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels. Nostradamus, where are you? Who would have thought holidays on tropical islands would catch on, or that people would rather spend a day in a plane than two weeks on a boat. Photo by Samuel’s Photos on Unsplash This week 75 years ago. Dust storms, bush fires and unbelievable heat across New South Wales. 118 fahrenheit is 47 degrees C, and there were 100+ temperatures in many places. The sun appearred as a “red sky”. A dust storm created a “terror” in Mildura (just like last week in 2019). In Parkes, it was the worst dry spell on record. People were going without milk because the cows have died. Thanks to Siliggy, Lance Pidgeon. Holy apocalypse! RAGING DUST FURY INLAND, STRANGE CITY LIGHT GLOW
The air was calm in Sydney today, but diffusion of sunlight through a dense blanket of fine dust bathed the city in a strange orange glow. Practically the whole of the NSW coast this morning lay under a shroud of yellowish-red dust and bushfire smoke blown from inland regions. Maximum temperature in Sydney today was 98.7 degrees at 2.55 pm. Early reports at the Weather Bureau today indicated that a heatwave, unprecedented in intensity, was raging’ practically everywhere in northern, western and southern NSW. Temperatures in many centres remained at over 100 degrees throughout the week-end. At Jerry’s Plains, Hunter Valley district, the mercury reading yesterday was 118 degrees. This was the highest reading reported there for nearly 20 years, and a State record for the present season. ![]() Monday 20th November, 1944: City Haze: Densest for years, yellow pall of bushfire smoke and western dust enveloped Sydney today. This is all the camera could show Elizabeth-street, on a “sunny Sydney” November morning. Searing Westerly winds and swirling dusts forms swept with renewed fury over inland NSW yesterday and throughout’ the night. In the Blue Mountains in November 1944 “only” 27 houses were lost. In Victoria in Feb 1944, one million ha burned, 500 houses were lost and 15 to 20 people died. H/t Lance Pidgeon
Despite the Democrats best efforts to stop droughts and bushfires with indoor lighting, no US citizen will be denied the chance to save their own money and enjoy a more natural spectrum of lighting in the privacy of their own home. If you like your sleeping patterns, you can keep them… BBC (This was announced in September 2019) The US is scrapping a ban on energy-inefficient light bulbs which was due to come in at the beginning of 2020. The rule would have prohibited the sale of bulbs that do not reach a standard of efficiency, and could have seen an end to incandescent bulbs. Many countries have phased out older bulbs because they waste energy. But the US energy department said banning incandescent bulbs would be bad for consumers because of the higher cost of more efficient bulbs. The Department of Energy said it had withdrawn the ban because it was a misinterpretation of the 2007 Energy Independence and Security Act. Specifically, the law stipulated that restrictions on bulbs could only be implemented when it was economically justified, Shaylyn Hynes, a spokeswoman for the Department of Energy, told the New York Times. Blue light suppresses melatonin, reducing sleepEffects of blue light and sleepWhile light of any kind can suppress the secretion of melatonin, blue light at night does so more powerfully. Harvard researchers and their colleagues conducted an experiment comparing the effects of 6.5 hours of exposure to blue light to exposure to green light of comparable brightness. The blue light suppressed melatonin for about twice as long as the green light and shifted circadian rhythms by twice as much (3 hours vs. 1.5 hours). Exposure to blue light at night has been associated with breast and prostate cancer. In the latest bizarre news, daily exposure to blue light may accelerate aging, even if it doesn’t reach your eyes (at least if you are a drosophila). OK, it’s just a fly study, but even eyeless flies had some brain damage from being exposed to 12 hours of day of blue light. And who knows what effect LED lighting all night could have on insects and wildlife (but who cares eh? Not the Greens). BTW For years, I’ve used F.lux to make my screens warm “cave painting” colors after sundown. I like it. h/t Hanrahan, and belatedly, Pat, and Travis T. Jones.
Look who wanted an excuse to justify what he never felt motivated to do anyhow: When I got engaged, my fiancée, Virginia, and I started planning for the future. It wasn’t just my dog Wiley and me against the world anymore. All of a sudden, I started thinking ten to 20 or more years ahead. People who want kids don’t mention US presidents, forest management, or generic family pets in their decision-making: Children are an obvious thing to plan. With a sudden focus on responsible decision-making, it no longer made sense to leave hypothetical future offspring up to chance. When should we have them? What did our careers look like on that timeline? Who’d be responsible for staying home and raising them? Couldn’t we just have one of the dogs do that? We got engaged in June 2018, a couple months before a wildfire destroyed an entire town in California and another one wiped out sections of Malibu. Shortly after that, most of the Mississippi River basin flooded, something that might be the new normal, virtually eliminating the future for industrial agriculture throughout a region that produces much of this nation’s food. And, of course, the whole Donald Trump thing has been going on. Is this a world we want to bring kids into? Is this a world it’s responsible to bring kids into? Since he wasn’t going to have kids, why not score a few fashion points along the way? Carbon accounting will be a big hit on a Saturday night dinner party among unmarried, career oriented people. Might not go down so well in twenty years among a cohort that went on to have kids: I’d save the planet 2.4 tons of carbon emissions a year. That’d be a massive sacrifice, but it’s nowhere near the carbon emissions I’ll save by skipping becoming a daddy, which comes in at around 58 tons annually, per kid. Luckily (for him) he can’t ask his future children what they’d prefer: That’s because there are simply too many humans on this planet. We’ve all been told that driving an electric car or putting solar panels on our roofs will help, but that involves buying more stuff, which has a terrible impact on the environment, no matter how green the image. Two people deciding to make fewer humans eliminates the entire cycle of consumption that would fuel that kid’s life. How self-focused is he: The worst part was taking a week off from the gym… I wonder what his parents (and hers) think. He apparently doesn’t. It might not be enough to save the polar bear… If there is a genetic component to gullible belief there might be a bit less of it in Gen-post-millenial. h/t Dennis M
The mob tried to shut down these dangerous speakers… but they didn’t win.. though they had to find another venue with only days to go. The program for the 13th Annual Conference Friday James Taylor then Benny Pieser, the Dr Helmut Alt, After lunch, Peter Ridd, Dr. Michael Schnell, Dr Nicola Scaffetta, Dr Susan Crockford, Myron Ebell. Saturday: Prof. em. Dr. Christian Schlüchter, Prof. Dr. Nicola Scafetta, Prof. Dr. Henrik Svensmark, Prof. Dr. Nir Shaviv After lunch, Dipl.-Ing. Michael Limburg, Dr. Sebastian Lüning, Prof. Dr. Horst Lüdecke, Dr. Lutz Niemann, Dr. rer. nat. Götz Ruprecht, Günter Ederer, Wolfgang Müller I know they have good translators working non-stop. Some of this is in German, much is in English. EIKE – European Climate and Energy Institute https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5f-fmtLcB1I Keep reading → Quick, who has a yacht to offer these poor celebrities?Following Greta’s marketing example, Coldplay are getting headlines by refusing to fly to Australia. Climate-compassion-marketing is a good way to promote their next tour, especially among the young delusionals: Coldplay won’t tour its new album until the band’s concerts can be environmentally ‘beneficial’Paul Donoughue, ABC “News” Singer Chris Martin says the band will not be touring new record, Everyday Life, until it can find a way to tour that is not harmful to the environment. “We’re taking time over the next year or two to work out how our tour can not only be sustainable [but] how can it be actively beneficial,” Martin told BBC News. He said that rather than just be sustainable, he wanted to the tours to have a positive impact, but that flights for the band, crew and gear represented the biggest hurdle to that. These fashionistas are just not good with numbers. Flights for the band and crew are probably nothing compared to flights and car travel for 10,000 people in the audience. Look, even the ABC (not good with numbers either) can find quotes to that effect: Stage structures need to be trucked from town to town, or shipped between continents. The band and crew, often dozens of people all up, need to be flown and bussed around. Large venues require a lot of energy to power and they produce food and plastic waste. Berish Bilander, the co-chief executive of Green Music Australia, which campaigns for sustainability in the industry, told the ABC earlier this year that plastic waste had been the main talking point so far in the music industry. He agreed that, based on research by UK music sustainability group Julie’s Bicycle, the biggest emissions impact with festivals and concert tours was likely from fan travel to and from events. I’m betting Coldplay might have enough money to rent a yacht, but no band on Earth has enough money fly solar. In other words, Coldplay didn’t have to make this a news announcement, they could have just “solved their own emissions” quietly. h/t Willie Soon. OK. Bit late. Sorry about that.
Watch this. There’s no electricity involved, and also no smart government operatives. The US and Canadian military couldn’t see much potential. The inventors tried to keep it secret and give the military a heads-up but they’re only getting replies now that it is on youtube. Another case of incompetence rising to the top in Western bureaucracy. If the West survives it will be despite our governments… UK Express: Invisibility breakthrough: It’s cheap and it’s thin, and it would foil heat-seeking cameras as well. Yaron Steinbuch, New York Post: ‘Invisibility cloak’ straight out of Harry Potter is now a thingHyperStealth Biotechnology Corp. has announced four patent applications for “Quantum Stealth,” its own version of the fantasy cloak that could be used to make things appear to be invisible. “It can hide a person, a vehicle, a ship, spacecraft and buildings,” the British Columbia-based company said in a statement. “There is no power source. It is paper-thin and inexpensive.” … It works just by bending light. An optical illusion. “It bends light like a glass of water does where a spoon or straw looks bent except I figured out how to do it without the water or volume (thickness) of material,” he told the news outlet. … “The light comes from the sides and comes out the middle,” CTV’s science and technology specialist Dan Riskin said. “You think, intuitively, that the light comes straight through the middle and comes and hits your eye, but the light that’s coming out the middle has bent there from around (the sides). It’s the bending of light that makes it look like it’s not there at all,” he added. … There are many less obvious applications, Ciaran McGrath, UK Express “Hiding shadows in the solar industry can potentially solve the problem of the newly MIT developed 3D Solar Towers from achieving their potential of 1 Terawatt solar power generation.” “With the laser splitting, apart from the many military and commercial LIDAR type applications, I can foresee quantum computers utilising this as it solves two of their big requirements: millions of lasers and room temperature quantum computing. “Currently quantum computers need to be industrial cooled and just a little, they need very cold temperatures to operate, whereas I demonstrate the splitting at room temperature.” No actual clothes yet due to the distance required around an object. — h/t David E What a bombshell. Despite the non-stop stories of unprecedented heat the original data at 60 of the oldest sites across Australia shows there are no more Very-Hot-Days now than there were early last century. That’s no trend in 40 degree days for 100 years. No change — that is, until the Bureau of Meteorology adjusts the data… After we were shocked at the latest ACORN changes to our Very Hot Days data, I asked Chris Gillham if we could see the effect of Bureau of Meteorology changes to the original raw data – and he replied it would be too time-consuming writing the code to calculate 40C+ days among the millions of daily temperatures from 112 weather stations across Australia since 1910. Then he did it anyway. Wow. In 2011, the BoM’s ACORN 1 adjustments wiped out some of the “very hot days” recorded at weather stations in the early 1900s. These were records that had stood for a whole century. Then, quietly six years later, the ACORN 2 readjustments turned the statistical air conditioner on again and cooled people from 100 years in the future. It’s all especially miraculous given that even the old World War I data was recorded in official BoM-approved Stevenson screens. The BoM won’t consider pre 1910 data because it wasn’t standardized, but even when it is, they still have to “fix” it. And in the intervening years after 1910, the Urban Heat Islands have grown and electronic equipment that can record one-second-records have been introduced across the nation. With the old equipment, 40C+ extremes were harder to get than with today’s micro-minute spikes caused by gusts of hot air rolling off carparks and tarmacs. What we see in the 60 longest running ACORN sites, all open in 1910, is that the raw temperature data had just as many “very hot days” in the World War I era as it does now. Oh boy. No wonder the BOM was keen to move the “Very Hot Days” graphics and data and tuck them away in a remote page on their website.
Here’s a PDF copy of these three animated graphs side by side. Chris also analyzed larger pools of sites (see below) but these include new stations that have opened since 1910, many of which are in hot arid locations that skew the averages as the proportion of “hot region” thermometers grows. The addition of new “hot” stations probably makes an upward trend all by itself. The 60 long-term stations then, are more useful because they’re the originals, even though many of them have shifted down the road from post offices to airports and got new electronic gizmos. None of them are ideal, but at least they are in the same locality. Presumably with a million-dollars-a-day the Australian BoM might have been able to do this graph themselves. But somehow we need unpaid volunteers to tell Australians basic things about the trends across the country. With billion dollar decisions about how to change the global weather, you might think a responsible bureau would want to let Australians know that the original temperatures recorded show there are no more 40C+ days now than there used to be? — Jo ______________________________________________________ No more extreme hot days in Australia than 100 years agoGuest Post by Chris Gillham, who maintains waclimate.net Despite a community belief that global warming is creating a climate of extremes with more very hot days in Australia than ever before, analysis of the Bureau of Meteorology’s 112 ACORN weather stations shows nothing much has changed since 1910. The BoM defines a very hot day as having a maximum of 40C or greater, and the bureau’s own official data show that the recently released but virtually unknown ACORN 2 dataset has significantly increased the frequency of very hot days compared to its predecessor, ACORN 1, mostly by decreasing 40C+ days in the first half of the 1900s (see blog post). Analysis of the annual 40C+ average numbers and temperatures at the 112 stations allows a comparison between original RAW daily observations and the homogenised ACORN 1 and ACORN 2 datasets. The following analysis is from 1910 to 2017 as this is the final full year of ACORN 1 daily temperatures. The first analysis compares the three datasets at the 104 non-urban ACORN stations used by the bureau to calculate national and regional average temperatures …
It’s clear that ACORN 1 reduced the number of RAW very hot days in the early 1900s, and ACORN 2 has created a staircase. However, the animation nevertheless suggests a RAW increase in the annual number of very hot days in Australia, although the observable step changes coincide with 1972 metrication and the introduction of automatic weather stations in the mid to late 1990s that are believed to increase maxima because of their instant electronic response to warmth compared to the slower responsiveness of liquid thermometers. The very hot day increase in the new millennium also coincides with the introduction of smaller Stevenson screens that decreased their internal space by almost 74%. The trend and dataset differences in the 104 non-urban stations are similar among all 112 ACORN stations … Keep reading → It’s a nervous wait til summer. The Australian grid appears to be in slightly better shape than a couple of months ago, but it’s still so shaky manufacturers admit they are developing contingency plans to move operations interstate if a blackout hits, or they get attacked by a bout of high prices: Something that doesn’t happen in competent countries with reliable electricity: Victorian manufacturers prepare for power crunchAngela McDonald-Smith and Mark Ludlow, AFR Manufacturers are drawing up contingency plans to shift operations out of Victoria this summer as fears of blackouts and sky-high electricity prices for the March quarter keep nerves on edge. While worries about blackouts in Victoria have eased in the past three months, Coca-Cola chief executive Alison Watkins said on Friday the company was prepared to beef up manufacturing in other states should the worst-case scenario eventuate in Victoria and generation fall short of demand. Just another burden and inefficiency on business. As power gets more expensive and unreliable the Victorian government is blaming coal:
Victoria’s Energy Minister, Lily D’Ambrosio, reiterated her concern that the increasing failure of ageing privately owned coal power generators was the biggest threat to Victoria’s power supply. She noted the work by AEMO “to secure the back-up power we need to compensate for this unreliability”. The definition of incompetence is having a 430-billion tonne brown coal reserve but not enough electricity to operate the manufacturers that haven’t already left. In any case, old coal plants don’t have to die, we could just keep fixing them. But the land of incompetence not only seems to have forgotten how, but it’s forgetting that it ever could. Running the behemoths in an increasingly peaky grid, with more volatile demand, higher voltage swings, and more outages, while on shrinking profit margins and in a culture of doom is hardly conducive to good corporate maintenance. South Australia, with more renewables than anywhere, seems rather desperate to get gas power: AGL this month switched on its new $295 million Barker Inlet gas plant outside Adelaide and has won approval to defer the mothballing of units at its Torrens Island plant until at least March. South Australia rushing to add another lean green jet engine to the fleet by summer: The new generator, an Aeroderivative Open Cycle Gas Turbine, is a variation of a jet plane engine and has the capacity to reach full load within five minutes from start. The new turbine is more environmentally friendly, using half the amount of fuel of other generators on site. The Hallett power station at Canowie, around 210 kilometres north of Adelaide, currently has 12 operating turbines with total generation capacity of 203 MW, enough to power over 60,000 South Australian homes. — Energy Australia In this case the money comes from hapless customers who have to pay more because the law says they can’t choose to buy electricity from cheaper generators. After adding more renewables per capita than anywhere on Earth strangely electricity is not cheaper yet, and not forecast to ever get cheaper than what it used to be before we got all those renewables. Forward prices for wholesale power reflect the concerns, with Victoria’s March quarter price now at $147/MWh, having risen early in the winter and only marginally softened. The plant outages, combined with the drought, drove Victoria’s average spot power price to $98/MWh in the September quarter, the fifth highest quarter on record, AEMO said. Victoria’s March quarter price is now almost 45 per cent above that in NSW, which has also risen north of $100/MWh.
Bring out your wallet. In NSW fires continue to burn, and with more hot weather is forecast. Some farmers are burning off for themselves, not waiting to be saved by a bucket of rain from a plane. There’s a total fire ban in NSW, so this is very much illegal, highly risky, and 5 months (or 5 years) too late. Desperate and dangerous. A dire situation. As a signpost on the Road to Madness, its time the whole nation heard of Maxwell SculzHere in Westernistan Australia, in 2011 Szulc cleared a firebreak on his own land, and the government put him in jail. He didn’t start any fires, or put anyone at risk — he cleared a 20 wide break through scrubby regrowth on his own land, and they sent him to jail for 15 months. No heritage trees were destroyed, no rare orchids went extinct. It had all been cleared back in 1983 and regrown. His property was next to state land and he wanted to reduce the fire risk. He’d been ordered in court to fill in forms and ask permission. But it was his land, he felt that was wrong, so he cleared it. His action was both as a farmer and as a protest — an act of civil disobedience. For that, he earned a short mention on an ABC page once, was not nominated for a Nobel or an Oscar, and the UN didn’t ask him to dinner. Meanwhile in NSW this week: ‘Locked up and forgotten’: Farmers taking fire management into their own hands Peter Hannam, Sydney Morning Herald
Desperate farmers are doing their own back-burning to protect their land from bushfires, prompting the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers Party to draft laws to allow farmers to do controlled burns in national parks. Shooters’ MLC Robert Borsak will introduce a bill to NSW Parliament next week that would give farmers the power to conduct “small controlled burns” if their property adjoins public lands. The proposed bill comes as the NSW Rural Fire Service (RFS) concedes farmers in bushfire-ravaged parts of the state may have been doing their own back-burning. The most desperate farmers were the ones living next to National-Fuel-Parks, the kind being un-managed by governments: Mr Borsak said farmers living next to state land were desperate to protect their property, with “millions of hectares of national park … locked up and forgotten”. “The national parks are not being properly managed,” he said. “ There’s no chance the government will let farmers back burn public land. … the government, …says hazard reduction is a complex task that requires significant planning. A spokeswoman for Emergency Services Minister David Elliott said: “The NSW Rural Fire Service works in collaboration with partner agencies including NSW Parks and Wildlife on hazard reduction. Adapted from my post on Szulc in 2013: In Australia if you try to clear a firebreak on your land you could go to gaolSome will say that Maxwell Szulc is technically not in jail for clearing his land, but for contempt of court. He deliberately went against a court injunction that forbid him from clearing more land. The innocent will wonder whether he should have filled in the management plan that the DEC asked him too. But this is the key. Szulc is a conscientious objector, and cleared the land as a protest against laws he sees as completely unjust. He felt it was his duty to protest. Szulc believes that his land is his land, and that he should be able to manage it without asking permission from anyone. Those “management plans” sound innocent, but as other farmers (like Matt and Janet Thompson and Sid Livesey) have found out, the management plan is an insidious form of creeping fascism. Why should a landowner need to get permission to clear firebreaks on his own property? Land clearing is expensive, and top-soil in Western Australia is a precious commodity (we have the poorest and oldest soil in the world, and fertilizer costs money). No land-owner would want to overdo the clearing or lose that thin layer of top-soil. The owner stands to lose the most if the land is badly managed. That is the point of the free market and ownership by individuals. Creeping quietly into fiefdoms where no one can afford to “offend” a bureaucrat…In a western democracy we assume that it’s One Law for Everyone. But what if a government department made every business put in a separate management plan for approval? Isn’t that just fascism by any other name? The government department is then free to approve, deny or delay approval on a case by case basis. This pits individual farmers against the state and each other, and puts them under the direction of the state. Sure they “own” their land, but they have to do what the state says — that’s fascism, where the state allows private ownership but commandeers property at will (under communism you neither control nor “own” property). Corruption can’t be far behind. If the bureaucrat doesn’t like the farmer, they can make life tough. They can selectively enforce the rules. Farmers know that, which is probably why they have been so silent as other individual farmers have either been jailed, or driven to bankruptcy by bureaucrats who don’t have to answer to anyone. Who wants to stick their heads up over this parapet? Who stands up for them? Their ABC — the love media — agrees in spirit with everything the environment department does (unless it’s not “green enough”). The ABC are missing-in-action when it comes to standing up for the farmers who are forced to pay tax to keep the billion dollar big-government propaganda-machine running. Read Maxwell Szulc’s story. — does anyone know where Maxwell is now? There is no winning against the state: Matt and Janet Thompson did the opposite to Szulc, they obeyed every rule, jumped through every hoop, and were still bled dry by bureaucrats, lawyers and banks, and lost their profitable business and life’s work. Szulc pushed back on principle, but spent 15 months in jail. Some choice. Property rights helps to stop fires. It’s the collective-forests that are most at risk, and each decade farms are becoming more collectively managed (by the farmer, the EPA, the ABC, and the RBA? Who knows?) If you doubt that the ABC has some control over our farms, ponder how different it might be now in NSW if the ABC had picked up Szulc’s story (as if he was as important as a 16 year old Swedish schoolgirl) and the nation had discussed property rights instead of advertising for solar panels? h/t Dave B The Bureau of Meteorology did what to February?Wow, just wow. Look what the Bureau of Meteorology has covertly done to February? Something like one third of a degree has been added to the average Australian summer maximum anomalies over the past few years according to the “expert” data from the worlds-best-practise equipment. In the BOM Whopper Part 1 we revealed that in the BOM’s latest round of unannounced adjustments there were big increases in the rate of Australian summer warming. It turns out a lot of the summer rise comes from changes to February. Mysteriously, there were large changes to the national average of the last three years. Let that sink in. These changes were incomprehensible because while the averaged “whole nation” got warmer, there were no changes to the data in any of the 104 individual stations. It’s all rather spooky… but what it isn’t, is scientific. The two main points in Bob Fernley Jones’ work:
The BoM needs to explain… Despite urbanisation of modern sites, which would artificially warm them, we see adjustments that work in the opposite direction, effectively warming the modern era recorded in built-up sites, and cooling the past that was recorded with sites in fields and gardens. Jo ————————————————————————————————— Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology has covertly made summer hotter:Guest post by Bob Fernley-Jones
In 2011, the BoM adjusted (homogenised) Australia’s temperature records with the objective of making corrections for the varying measurement conditions back in time. Controversially, they deleted all data before 1910 by ruling them unreliable (especially the inconveniently hotter records) and by adjusting the surviving early 1900’s values generally downwards. Amid the controversy, this program received much official praise and publicity that culminated in a third and final government sponsored report in 2017 declaring it to be among the world’s best practice. Despite that acclaim, in October 2018 they found it necessary to quietly launch a new program that further increased warming rates. The BoM has long had a propensity to issue many media releases and special reports that emphasise hot weather events, and yet strangely, they were silent in this matter. Consequently, the vast majority of Australians are unaware of the big changes to the already modelled data. It was presumably well received by the IPCC in time for their coming sixth assessment report though. The two adjustment programs employ a methodology known as homogenization which is described under the acronyms ACORN-SAT (2011), and then by ACORN-SAT version 2 (hereafter v1 & v2). The discovery of what follows arose from enquiries to the BoM made last year over some already existing concerns with v1 data and the fortuitous archiving of BoM data and graphics that no longer exist on line (but which are easily proven to be genuine). It resulted in citizen researcher awareness of v2 and hence in recent interest to compare outcomes. In monthly terms, the most extreme warming increase in the all-of-Australia summer average was in February, as seen in the following animation. It is derived from a BoM online download archived in early 2018 compared with the replacing v2 copy in 2019: ![]() Australian February summer maximum temperatures, adjusted again? Animation by Chris Gillham at waclimate.net Typically, (as seen elsewhere, regionally and temporally) the greatest adjustments are increasingly negative towards 1910 (cooling) and increasingly positive towards 2019. Typically, they are netting rather flat with minimal change in the centre and over the full range they are in a random magnitude pattern. The v1 data were also archived which has enabled determination of comparative linear trend rates of the modeled data as follows: The v2 over v1 warming rate 1910 – 2018 is increased by 87%! (v1 data not available in 2019). Similar calculations for Summer (DJF) give an increased trend of 57% for 1910 – 2018. Notice that the two trend lines merge and cross close to the centre, which is typical of what was seen in Part 1 (and elsewhere). In effect, this can be called ‘rotating the dataset anti-clockwise,’ with minimal net change around the centre. Strangely, equipment in the middle period as highlighted in the chart has seemingly worked more accurately than modern equipment. The reason behind this paradox is elaborated next. The biggest surprise is seen in the following figure: ![]() Adjustments mean February maximums have cooled in the distant past and risen in recent times. (Yet again). | Click to enlarge.
Of particular interest is that the final three years show increased warming on top of that already existing under “world’s best practice” in v1:
2016 = 0.34 °C 2017 = 0.33 °C 2018 = 0.30 °C Keep reading → |
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