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Amazing. Sinbad reports on the situation in Iran. He is a commenter here who speaks the language. I can’t confirm this except to say that #Coronavirusupdates Iran looks like everything he is describing. Officially there are only 388 cases and 34 deaths. But on twitter, just like China, censorship and denial and so much more. Mass graves. Corrupt officials. Mass spraying of the streets. But if there is no attempt to stop it spreading (no lockdown like China has done) this will truly run wild. Those poor people. Germany closed flights in January, related to other problems in Iran. In the last week Iraq, Oman, Turkey, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Tajikistan, UAE, Kuwait all closed borders with Iran. Australia, with lower medical standards imported a case from Iran today instead. – Jo UPDATE: Finally, today the Australian government banned arrivals from Iran without a two week holiday stopover somewhere. That’s a lot better but should be mandatory proper quarantine. The government now has the arduous job of tracking the 40 people (or more) she may have infected and the people those victims may have infected (their families). Those 40+ people now have the stressful wait to find out if they got “lucky”. Hopefully they’ll all survive and the virus doesn’t spread wildly. Why did we take this risk? PS: As Chiefio says: The virus can’t walk… “How to prevent and stop the spread is easy. But it will not be done. The virus has no legs nor wings. It can not move from country to country on its own. Stop international and inter regional travel for 40 days. During that time, test everyone from any region with disease. Those infected go off to disease camp and stay there until dead, or cured plus any relapse time possible. Workers in the camp have separate quarters area from the sick and do not return to the outside population until 40 days after the last case is discharged. From Sinbad:
Hi all, A bit of update on the Iranian front since my last post1- The regime has no plan to quarantine. Multiple officials including the ‘president’ have come out and refuted it as ‘unscientific’ and ‘backward’.2- The regime views everything from a security lens. Consequently, regime mouthpieces have already stated that the ‘enemy’ will seize upon any chance to bring the country to a standstill in turn leading to the toppling of a an extremely hated and weakened theocracy. The fascisti are extremely paranoid at this stage. This means that the mullahcracy is committed to the exact opposite of what the rest of the world is doing. As i stated in my original post, they have no intention of controlling it. As the architect in Matrix put it ‘there are levels of survival we are prepared to accept’. The population is expendable. 3- An MP for the city of Rasht, capital of Gilan province along the Caspian sea, has described the situation as ‘horrific’, based upon burial numbers from the city’s main cemetery, claiming that the number of deaths are much higher. However, he does not dare to tell how many due to ramifications. 4- The above is mirrored in reports of 2000 freshly dug graves in the city of Qom over the last week or so. Chinese despots build hospitals in 7 days, the mullahs dig thousands of graves in one week. There are multiple reports, citizen journalism, of people of all ages and sexes dying quite quickly, 2-3 days, and being hurriedly buried covered in lye. Relatives either being told to keep their mouths shut or bought off with some small lump sum. This common practice by the regime. 5- Another council official from Tehran has made a claim of 15000 infected for the entire country. This was a few days ago. 6- The actual numbers? No one knows. The regime is not interested. They are not monitoring nor do they have any protocols in place. The numbers of available kits are minuscule. 7- However, arguably the number one authority on this thing Dr. Drosten at Charite, believes numbers of infected to be very high, at least between 5000-10000, and probably much higher. Of all the countries, he is most worried about Iran. This podcast is in German but i have read a Persian excerpt. It would be good if German speakers could translate the gist of this podcast. https://www.ndr.de/nachrichten/info/podcast4684.html 8- A bit more on Dr. Drosten. Interestingly, Drosten believes the mortality rate to be lower which if true would make reported global infection numbers a joke. https://www.bccourier.com/enormous-amounts-of-virus-in-the-upper-throat-area/ 9- Most pharmacies in Iran have run out of masks, hand sanitiser and gloves. Some people have attempted 50 pharmacies in the capital in vain being forced to travel to the neighbouring provinces to secure some. There are reports on shortages of alcohol as well. Some medical staff have died already. Some in their 20′s. 10- There are recordings coming out with medical staff telling about the chaos at hospitals and lack of supplies, equipment, plan or proper protocol. Many hospitals have been turned completely into corona wards, turning away everyone else. There are reports of 20 people dying in one Tehran hospital in one shift alone. However these cannot be corroborated independently since the government has begun a vast censorship effort. 11- One thing is certain, the brave medical staff are doing their best to combat this thing on their own. Correction, Khamenovsky did release a clip form an undisclosed location praising their efforts. Staff have been told by senior doctors and specialists that the time to leave would be now since they may not be able to later on due to coming down or putting their families at risk. However, it should be too late for that already. As far as i am aware, staff have rejected these offers although many are really scared since they are pretty much operating in darkness. Some are reporting family breakdown and a sense of paranoia since support or accurate information from above is non existent. 12- The WHO should have taken over the Iranian situation last month but as always the UN is doing the usual vacillation routine. Rwanda anyone? 13- So is the mullahcracy doing anything? Absolutely. How about this; 3 year sentences and lashing have been introduced with 24 ‘rumour mongers’ arrested already. All ‘Israeli and CIA agents’ no doubt! Some have been cautioned and released. A team of the country’s top medical experts were told at a meeting with health ministry officials a few days ago that the minutes should be treated as top security material. They were later warned by IRGC to keep their mouths shut or else. A few have broken ranks and revealed what happened during the meeting. In short; all proposals by the experts, following international efforts and guidelines, were dismissed. In other words, there is no plan. ‘Things must flow as normal, disruption are foreign enemy efforts etc.’. 14- The German government has finally revoked the infamous Mahan Air’s, Corona Air or Terrorist Air, operating permits in Germany. Unfortunately, the damage is already done. 15- In an interesting twist, the Chinese government is now worried about flights from Iran. Yes, you have read it right. The Chinese regime is afraid of imported Corona virus! https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3052740/china-quarantines-63-aeroflot-passengers-after-traveller-iran 16- Here is for those who believe mullahs to be serious die hard fanatics with apocalyptic ambitions. Reports were made this week about 53 prominent mullahs from the epicentre, Qom, packing their families and relatives into a privately chartered passenger plane and flee to the port city of Mah-Shahr in the south. Apparently, they have been housed in a guarded area in the outskirts. Once locals found out, they rushed the local government building demanding an answer in regards to why such large number of people from this virus hotbed had been flown in. They received the usual answer; disappear or disappear. 17- The above is mirrored in other reports of some officials moving their families abroad or leaving Tehran and other major cities. Some regime henchmen have openly admitted that the country will be facing ‘very serious next 7-10′ days. 18- I would caution against believing these numerous reports of regime apparatchiki coming down with the virus. As Iranians say; once they’re dead, we’ll believe it. The regime exercises something called Taqiya or outright pretending/lying as a legitimate tenet of their creed. Projecting one’s own attributes to these criminals is a serious mistake. They have no morals or principles. Would they fake illness to pretend ‘we are all in the same boat’? Absolutely. The reality is that they are hunkering down in safety allowing the pandemic to burn itself out. 19- Remember our friend Harirchi the deputy health minister promising to resign if the numbers were even close to 25% of the stated 50 Qom casualties? The hospital official death toll of 210 as of Thursday evening has been released. The Qom MP Frahani who released the initial 50 number has maintained a daily death rate of 10 per day for the city but that was a few days ago. 20- Actual numbers? I am guessing since there is no way of knowing for sure. 100,000 – 200,000 infected and an actual death toll of 1000 already. As i mentioned in my original post, Iran will surpass China. Iran’s death toll cannot be compared to the rest of the world due to factors mentioned in earlier post i.e. systemic malnutrition and the government being the enemy of the people. North Korea, Yemen or Syria would be equivalents in regards to malnutrition and lack of infrastructure with only North Korea matching mullahcracy in its hatred of its own population. 21- How widespread is it? How about this; 7 Iranian passengers arriving at Kuwait this past week tested positive. All of them. What does that tell us? 22- 20 million Shia pilgrims visit Qom alone every year. Domestically and from Africa, India, the Gulf sheikdoms, Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Pakistan etc. Major source of revenue, indoctrination, propaganda and recruitment. The show must go on at all costs. 23- This thing has not even taken off in the city Mash-had, the number one pilgrimage site. However, numbers of dead are starting to trickle through. 24- The pandemic is entrenched in Tehran now. It has started at the southern part of the city, traditional, more impoverished and more dense, and spread to the rest. As of Thursday evening, Tehran is reporting 100 dead followed by Qom at 80. In my view, the above numbers are worthless. The regime is already changing the designation to ‘respiratory related deaths’ in order to bring down the numbers. 25- Remember the sage words of the officials in regards to quarantines being ‘dated’ and ‘unscientific’? This is apparently scientific. Burning of Peganum Harmala seeds to ‘purify’ hospitals. This is an ancient folk remedy of the region lacking scientific evidence. Can you imagine? As a patient suffering from bone crunching pain, fever and reduced breathing ability being exposed to the thick pungent smoke? I can assure you, it is pretty strong. See, it’s all under control, the smoke will take care of it. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fgtgBCxHTGc&feature=emb_logo 26- The virus has spread to prisons, already notoriously overpopulated and unsanitary, and some of the military bases all over the country. Suffice to say, none of these institutions have adequate measures to deal with the issues. 27- Business as usual. Visitors arriving at Qeshm island in the Persian Gulf. According to Rouhani the so called president; everything will go back to normal on Saturday! This should tell you why postmodernist/post structuralist left is so in love with religious fundamentalism. There is no objective reality, just project own radical subjective wishful thinking onto external universe. https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=17&v=H_7pqh6B4x0&feature=emb_logo 28- Finally, as others have pointed out, Friday prayers have been cancelled, not just in the capital but in 23 cities. However, senior mullahs are raging already, demanding a return to normal claiming that; 1) having not been consulted, and 2) the virus being a product of ‘the world of infidels’ thus a potential attempt to disrupt the unity of Umma. Consequently, an urgent return to mass gatherings is needed. I will post more in the coming days. Please ask any questions you may have and i will try to answer. All the best Sinbad. His previous comments on Iran are here.
Overnight, people woke up to the real threat and markets crashed appropriately. Unless we take massive action immediately, the exponential curve is about to lift off. And if we don’t act now then massive action is coming anyway in a month, along with major disruption, pandemonium, and worse. There are now 5,300 cases outside China. If it doubles every 5 days (as it just has) then 40 days from now 5 million people will be infected. What does massive action look like? A bit like this:
In Japan some are in uproar — they’re the ones who don’t understand how 226 infections becomes a national hospital crisis in weeks. Japan (like most nations) is theoretically only 19 doublings away from 100% infected. Here’s what not to do: disorganised mayhem communist style Anonymous from Wuhan, Epoch Times, Lies are killing people in Wuhan. We don’t know the real situation, not even the situation of our own residential building. But we deserve the right to know everything, which can only help us to control the contagion. We were told that buildings with red tape indicate that no residents are infected by the virus, but the ones with white notices posted outside indicate infections. But our building has no such notices, and we have no way of knowing who’s infected. On the lockdown: The first problem, however, is that the rules for the isolation facilities have been loosely applied, which I can still observe today [Feb. 18] from my apartment, a high-level unit. The second problem is that security measures have turned out to be a mere formality. I saw with my own eyes that security guards were often absent from their posts. Many of them let people through… WHO says 1% mortality rate in ChinaThe high mortality rate is not the tip of the iceberg — it is the iceberg. At the start of an outbreak the apparent mortality rate can be an overestimate if a lot of mild cases are being missed. But this week, a WHO expert suggested that this has not been the case with Covid-19. Bruce Aylward, who led an international mission to China to learn about the virus and the country’s response, said the evidence did not suggest that we were only seeing the tip of the iceberg. If borne out by further testing, this could mean that current estimates of a roughly 1% fatality rate are accurate. This would make Covid-19 about 10 times more deadly than seasonal flu, which is estimated to kill between 290,000 and 650,000 people a year globally. A virus with a 1% case fatality rate– that’s ten times worse than The Flu — could kill 70 million people. The WHO is rarely worth quoting, (because of this kind of conflicts of interest) but they’ve been playing this disaster down. When the team run by an apologist for Xi says “1%” and it matches the shocking stories on #Covid2019, it’s time to pay attention. As bad as it is, its a relief after weeks of watching this build while leaders were asleep the wheel. Finally, some action. If a few major economies launch into action — others will suddenly follow. Like fish flipping from “don’t want to look alarmist” to “don’t want to look inept”. See all stories on Coronavirus So keep sending your letters to the MP’s. h/t Pat. Bill in Oz Who rules Britain? Activist Judges. Paris is the excuse to let the deep state run amok. Get out now.
The zero carbon goal by 2050 was also a Grand Theater Promise. But here the two symbolic acts of nothingness met like anti-matter and threaten to blow up an economy. Climate campaigners win Heathrow expansion caseBy Tom Espiner, BBC Controversial plans for a third runway at Heathrow Airport have been thrown into doubt after a court ruling. The government’s decision to allow the expansion was unlawful because it did not take climate commitments into account, the Court of Appeal said. Heathrow said it would challenge the decision, but the government said it would not appeal. The judges said that in future, a third runway could go ahead, as long as it fits with the UK’s climate policy. Since when were Judges appointed to decide if an elected government stuck to its policies? Isn’t that what the voters are supposed to do? Fears Heathrow eco-bombshell could pose a threat to ALL future transport projects after court ruled the £14bn airport expansion was illegalColin Ferdandez, Daily Mail British ambitions of becoming a global economic power after Brexit suffered a major blow yesterday after a court ruling suggested future airports, motorway and energy projects could all be blocked to prevent global warming. Keep reading → Trainwreck in processWatch this interview. Write to your MP. Send letters to the Editor. Stop the flights at least for a few weeks. 80% of Australians think closing the border was right so why is Scott Morrison undoing that? Join these dots. Our universities took a huge bet on Chinese students that is falling apart. They’ve creamed the profits, but taken no insurance and stand to lose billions if they can’t get students to Australia — An extraordinary 65,000 of whom got caught in China by the quarantine. In China, travel agents are marketing 14 day holiday stopovers in Thailand to students, who are then flying on to Australia to get around the ban. But this is not quarantine. Thailand is open to China, and considered so risky that Israel has already banned flights from Thailand. What’s next? Australia imports the virus, tens of thousands may die, and all so the ivory tower smug academics can make their profits, while weak politicians sell out the nations citizens — especially the senior, longest serving ones? How long before Israel bans Australian planes? We could be one the highest value clean nations in the world, waiting out our first winter of this pandemic until there is a treatment. We could be a place that wealthy tourists come to stay safe (after a two week real quarantine) and spend months of money. Perhaps we still can? Some students in Wuhan are offering to pay for a Charter Flight to Christmas Island if we’ll let them. Martin North interviews Salvatore Babones and he is eloquently savage about the “mindbogglingly illogical” move of Australia to allow Chinese students to come in without proper quarantine. h.t David E. Is Scott Morrison selling out the nations health for arrogant academic investors?Read Australia’s glorious preparedness plan for Coronavirus it’s as Babones said — “56 pages of platitudes” — the plan Scott Morrison and Greg Hunt waved so passionately today is a recycled seasonal flu plan. It lacks almost all useful details barring advising people in Aged Care to get their Wills in order. (h.t Bill H) Where are the Labor Party? Whining about sports allocations (minor junk pork barrelling). They could be scoring major points for senior citizens, the sick, the vulnerable. Or are they under the thrall of the Big-Government-loving universities even more than the Liberals are? His reports:
Salvatore Babones is an expert on the academic sector and points out how extreme the gamble has been by Australian universities. The most “Chinese” university in the US is Uni of Illinois, with 5,700 students. Uni of Sydney has four times as many students as this. The Uni of Illinois were so worried about that exposure they took out insurance with Lloyds of London against exactly this kind of event. He warned Uni of Sydney six months ago, but they didn’t buy the insurance. And there are many universities in Australia in a similar position. They took the taxpayer dollar, and took the profits but now that trouble has come, they want the government and the people to bail them out and foot the bill — with their health, even their lives. $6b is at risk in Mining Tourism and Education, but it’s Education that is desperate for a bail out and to open those borders: The mineral sector is not putting public health at risk… The Tourism sector was highly dependent on China, but no one is talking of rerouting tourists through secondary nations to keep that alive. The people pushing hardest on the politicians to risk Australians health are the smug ivory tower academics who recklessly bet too much on this. The two week unsupervised holiday in Thailand is not a quarantine. Thailand is not wealthy, but is one of the only countries still allowing Chinese flights. It’s only kept its border open because of pressure from China. Australian universities are exploiting that “loophole”. Coronavirus’ sickening consequences Tim Dodd, The Australian Chinese travel agents are marketing bespoke “14-day, 13-night” packages to third-country transit destinations to help Chinese students enrolled at Australian universities get around the federal government’s coronavirus ban for as little as $2700 each. Agents said the packages, which are being micro-targeted on Chinese social media, are selling well, as almost 65,000 Chinese students look for ways to get around the federal government’s travel ban on all non-Australian citizens and non-permanent residents coming from mainland China. “Thailand and Malaysia are the top two choices. Next is Cambodia,” said an education agent in Beijing. Scott Morrison imposed the travel ban on February 1, when almost two-thirds of the 109,000 Chinese students enrolled in Australia were in China for the Lunar New Year break. Estimates suggest the ban could cost universities up to $2bn in deferred fees. Stopping flights for a few more weeks — and from other locations too — will buy us time to find out more about this virus before we decide what to do for winter. Singapore and Hong Kong appear to be managing the virus, and we were containing it, perhaps with some help from summer — which ends today. Do the mathsLook behind the marketing — for most people it’s like a cold. True – but for 5 – 10% it’s a hospital stay, and for 70 – 79 year old people in China it’s an 8% case fatality rate. In the 80 plus cohort 15% passed away. The death rate will be lower — the Chinese didn’t test the non serious cases who stayed home. The air is polluted in Wuhan and rates of smoking are high. But the rate of hospitalization for health workers was 15% too. Even a few young healthy nurses and doctors have died (which happens with the flu sometimes too). Does this virus leave lasting lung damage or scarring? We don’t know. Can people develop immunity to it? Another mystery. Is the Iranian version more deadly? Flu kills 0.1% but we have antivirals, vaccines, and partial immunity thanks to other strains. This is not the flu. If this was blight on wheat, would we let it in? Winter is coming. Something does not add upSo the virus is on its way. Even though Australia has no known community transmission we are choosing to slow down the spread by actively importing it even though we are surrounded by a moat, and are pretty much self-sustaining. We have thousands of high risk people and the disease that’s coming is largely unknown — today there are reports a Japanese case of a woman medical experts had thought had recovered who tests positive again. Is this a biphasic disease like anthrax? That’ll be fun. Winter is twelve weeks away for Australians, and we know the coronavirus potentially threatens to overwhelm our medical systems and could be a GDP-type hit on national economies. It’s highly infectious, and between 5 – 17% of current cases outside China require hospitalization, and probably 1 -3% will need intensive care. Inviting the virus to start spreading now will mean it will peak during winter — the worst possible time in Australia. Australia is one of the easiest countries to protect from this scourge, yet we are obediently following policies of northern hemisphere nations in a different situation. Hmm? As I keep saying, it’s easier to import a deadly virus than to bring in cut flowers to Australia. Most people won’t get very sick, but China is still reacting somewhat like the it has the Black Plague. Scott Morrison says “the pandemic is upon us” but also says don’t cancel large public events, you can still go to the footy. How to reconcile the two; is it coming, or isn’t it? Based on all these things, the only logical approach is to close the borders temporarily until we know more. The medical experts I’ve talked to privately agree. Thousands of Australians agree (see the last essential survey). Yet despite that, almost no medical official, commentator or expert even discusses that as an option. Are they all afraid of being called a scaremonger? Is namecalling worse than being the person who decided to let the virus run rife, or do they know something they are not telling us? Perhaps, behind the scenes, the experts know that too many cases are already circulating without diagnosis? Officials are acting as if that’s the case. Somehow we shifted from “low risk” to “100% chance sometime soon”. Germany has just announced six new cases and says “it’s facing an epidemic”. Trump has said “the risk is low” but warned schools need to be prepared to close. One US case with no known source has just been announced. Ominously, they acquired it before Feb 19th, but only just got tested. Evidently undiagnosed coronavirus was spreading a week and a half ago around Sacramento. LATE NOTE: The US untraceable case suggests the virus has been circulating possibly since Feb 12th or so. Perhaps this isn’t as dire as it sounds. Whoever he caught it off may not have triggered a wave of deadly pnumonia instead perhaps just triggering colds and flus. That may mean the virus is already loose, and most infections are not severe. Then again, since no one is testing these kinds of cases, who knows? I hope someone is tracking pneumonia cases in Sacramento and starting to test them. Latest claims are the Ro (rate of reproduction of the infection) was a 7.05 in the early days in China. The draconian quarantines have reduced this to to 3.2. (by Jan 23rd, so it’s even lower now, hopefully). We have to bring the Ro below 1 to stop this. Every person has to infect less than one other. How many will need a hospital?Based on Worldometer stats, and bearing in mind there is an eight day delay between detection and progression to “severe” — the latest stats from semi-reliable countries on Feb 19th, the rate of progression to hospitalization is: (severe cases/ total cases 8 days ago). Bear in mind that with the lack of current broad testing, these numbers may bear no resemblance to the actual number of cases.
There are zero cases progressing to “serious critical” from Australia (15), USA (29), UK (9), Macao (10), Canada (8), Malaysia (22), Vietnam (16), India (5). That’s 114 cases with good outcomes. Many countries have had only one or two cases and complete recovery: Cambodia, Sri Lanka, Nepal, Egypt, Belgium, Russia, Philippines. Things are moving too fast in South Korea, Iran and Italy to make their statistics meaningful. Obviously all three had far wider spread a week ago than they knew of. Is there any data on how this affects different racial groups, or is that information being kept quiet because everyone is too afraid of offending an ethnic group? Singapore and Hong Kong appear to be doing good jobs of controlling the spread. Iran is a basket case, so is Indonesia (with no reported cases, but little testing and their medical policy is “it’s in the hands of Allah”. ) While graphs show exponential growth outside China, it appears (probably falsely) localized to South Korea, Iran and Italy. Presumably coronavirus has been headed via 747 out of all three for at least a week, which may be why officials have given up. They know outbreaks will occur next week, they just don’t know where. What I can’t explain is why they won’t even try tracking and isolating these cases now and stopping further imports. The success of Singapore and Hong Kong suggests it might still be possible. The comforting Atlantic headline: You’re Likely to Get the CoronavirusMost cases are not life-threatening, which is also what makes the virus a historic challenge to contain. James Hamblin M.D., The Atlantic The Harvard epidemiology professor Marc Lipsitch is exacting in his diction, even for an epidemiologist. … it’s striking when one of the points he wanted to get exactly right was this: “I think the likely outcome is that it will ultimately not be containable.” … even with the ideal containment, the virus’s spread may have been inevitable. Testing people who are already extremely sick is an imperfect strategy if people can spread the virus without even feeling bad enough to stay home from work. Lipsitch predicts that within the coming year, some 40 to 70 percent of people around the world will be infected with the virus that causes COVID-19. But, he clarifies emphatically, this does not mean that all will have severe illnesses. Originally, doctors in the U.S. were advised not to test people unless they had been to China or had contact with someone who had been diagnosed with the disease. Within the past two weeks, the CDC said it would start screening people in five U.S. cities, in an effort to give some idea of how many cases are actually out there. But tests are still not widely available. As of Friday, the Association of Public Health Laboratories said that only California, Nebraska, and Illinois had the capacity to test people for the virus.
Read it all, it has a long discussion of the timeline for a vaccine.
What to make of Twitter trends that show that more people are searching for the misspelled caronavirus than the correct spelling? That isn’t the case here in Australia where #coronavirus is #1. The Australian asks “should you travel” and says “Yes, No, Maybe”. Jo Nova says “Why risk it?” — who wants to chance catching it on a plane or overseas — even if you only get the common cold, you may end up facing quarantine for two weeks. Of course, if you are away from home, it might be time to get back. This may all look so much better (or worse) in a few weeks. We just don’t have the numbers yet. The Optimist says: Perhaps this is a bad flu season and as long as we can stop the cytokine cascade in the vulnerable, or get some anti-viral working, we may not be looking at large deaths or mass quarantines. The Pessimist says: do the math, stop the flights, and wait for the data. February 27th, 2020 | Tags: Coronavirus, Virus | Category: Global Warming, Health, Microbiology |  Print This Post | | … UPDATE: The Hon. Craig Kelly MP was so appalled by this story he has taken this to the Australian Parliament already where The Labor Party was so afraid they interrupted his allocated 15 minute speech just to stop him finishing. They even called a formal Division which means the bell is rung and all the missing MPs have to return to the Chamber to vote. See that on Kelly’s Facebook page. Who cares about our climate and who covers up for incompetent bureaucrats?! For generations it was a Guinness Book of Records type thing. Now it’s gone.
In 1924 Marble Bar set a world record of the most consecutive days of 100 °F (37.8 °C) or above, during an incredible period of 160 days starting in 1923. It was legend — but thanks to the genius homogenized adjustments, we now find out all along it was wrong. It’s another ACORN triumph, rewriting history, extinguishing the hot days of days long gone. The experts at the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) have reanalyzed the temperatures from 4000 km away and nine decades in the future and apparently it wasn’t that hot.
Chris Gillham wonders how the bureau figured out the Marble Bar max was one whole degree too warm on 18 Nov 1923, but it was 0.6°C too warm on 19 Nov 1923, 0.3°C too warm on 20 Nov 1923, 0.2°C too warm on 21 Nov 1923, and 0.8°C too warm on 22 Nov 1923? He points out the sky was totally clear every day, the screen didn’t get shuffled around every day, etc, so where’s the logic? The world record was extinguished because on 8 March 1924 the ACORN adjustments magically cooled the temperature from 38.2°C to 36.5°C. What caused the thermometer to be 1.7°C too warm on that particular day? That adjustment is twice the size of the entire century long trend. Check out those “daily changes” of raw versus “ACORN.” Ponder the bad luck of scientists Saving-The-World who constantly have to battle against all the thermometers which cruelly and overestimated temperatures from Stevenson Screens in sites probably unaffected by concrete and bitumen so long ago. Those falsely high readings lulled the world into thinking that the world has always been hot and that CO2 was an irrelevant, minor and beneficial gas. What are the odds that so much equipment was non-randomly, dastardly conspiring to hide the True Catastrophic Effect of CO2!
But never fear, the brilliant minds of the BoM are correcting past mistakes with secret methods they cannot explain to mere mortals outside the sacred guild of weather druids. Luckily for us, the new super sensitive small box electronic gizmos that record one second spikes of warmth from passing trucks and radiated heat from tarmac and walls is The Truth Hallalujah Brother. In another ten years, the climate of Marble Bar circa 1924 will be so much cooler. I bet the dead will be delighted.
I can’t imagine why the BoM didn’t issue a press release to let the world know that Australia now doesn’t hold the longest hottest record which now goes to Death Valley.
Thanks to the volunteer number-crunching dedication of Chris Gillham for doing what the million-dollar-a-day BoM hasn’t found time to do — tell Australian we no longer have our long-standing heatwave world record at Marble Bar and that distinction now goes to America. Perhaps if we paid them less, they’d be more informative? — Jo
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Has ACORN robbed Marble Bar of its world record?by Chris Gillham, WAClimate If the Bureau of Meteorology’s Australian Climate Observation Reference Network (ACORN) accurately corrects historic temperature observations, it means that Marble Bar in the north of WA can no longer boast it had a world record heatwave in 1923/24. Marble Bar has been world famous for decades because of the 160 consecutive days in which it recorded maxima at or above 37.8C (100F or a “century” in the Fahrenheit days). The Marble Bar thermometer in a Stevenson screen topped 100F every day from 31 October 1923 to 7 April 1924, and nowhere else on earth is known to have recorded 160 century days in a row without a break. Marble Bar is now a runner-up In 2020, the BoM website still has a page that explains: Marble Bar, in the Pilbara, holds the Australian record for the longest sequence of days over the old century mark (100°F or 37.8°C). This occurred during the period from 31 October 1923 to 7 April 1924 when the maximum temperature equalled or exceeded 100°F for 160 days in a row. The Australian Bureau of Statistics acknowledges the world record and Australians have heard about the Marble Bar heatwave record for many decades :
Temperature dataset downloads from the BoM website show that ACORN has cooled 31 October 1923 to 7 April 1924 so much that the Pilbara town can no longer boast that it had a world record 160 consecutive days above 37.8C. ACORN 2, which is described as a world-class homogenisation network, has reduced the 160 days to just 128 – from 1 November 1923 to 7 March 1924. From 31 October 1923 to 7 April 1924, the dates during which the 160 days of 100 or more were recorded, there’s now 153 days at or above 100F. And the winner is … America 154 days is less than 160 days but a lot more than 128 days, so it seems that America now holds the world record heatwave of consecutive 37.8C+ days at Death Valley – thanks to ACORN. On its archived Climate Education page, the BoM states that “The highest temperature recorded during the record spell was 47.5°C on 18 January 1924.” This is correct in the original RAW temperature dataset (see below), but ACORN 2 cools 18 January 1924 to 47.3C. An Excel spreadsheet (499kb) with columns of daily maximum temperatures at Marble Bar from October 1923 to April 1924 in ACORN 1, ACORN 2 and RAW can be downloaded here. Daily cooling adjustments Politicians and climate change skeptics are often scorned for suggesting that the BoM adjusts temperature data to fit a global warming agenda or to cool the past (e.g. Media Watch), and in late 2019 SBS News reported that the bureau denied it has rewritten Australia’s climate record. The animation below uses the daily temperature datasets for RAW, ACORN 1 (introduced 2011/2012) and ACORN 2 (introduced quietly with no BoM announcement in early 2019) to compare the number of days each year from 1910 to 2019 that Marble Bar recorded a very hot day (defined by the bureau as at or above 40C) :
 Marble Bar very hot day trends
This animation demonstrates that temperature data has been adjusted, with Marble Bar just one of many examples where Australia’s climate record has been rewritten to cool the past. The slides show that very hot days were far more frequent according to the original RAW thermometer observations in the first half of the 1900s, but ACORN 1 cooled many of these and ACORN 2 has trimmed them even further to create an upward trend in the occurrence of 40C+ days at Marble Bar since 1910. Rain = clouds = fewer very hot days Marble Bar averaged just 9.9mm of rain per month from November 1923 to April 1924, compared to the 1910-1964 Nov-Apr average of 43.4mm per month. Just 71.1mm of rain fell in 1924, compared to an average 325mm in 1910-1964. The town had 132 very hot 40C+ days in 1924, compared to the 1910-1964 average of 112.3. It’s no surprise that the frequency of rainfall strongly influences how hot it gets in Marble Bar and how often the town exceeds 40C. In the absence of cloud data, rainfall is a proxy for cloudy days that keep temperatures below 37.8C or 40C. Confining the data to months when very hot days occur, the animation below shows the correlation between annual November to April rainfall at Marble Bar and the number of very hot days in the RAW, ACORN 1 and ACORN 2 daily temperature datasets :
RAW very hot day (40C+) annual averages: ACORN 1 very hot day (40C+) annual averages: ACORN 2 very hot day (40C+) annual averages: Rainfall November to April monthly averages:
The animation demonstrates that the frequency of very hot days increased when rainfall and cloudy days were relatively sparse at Marble Bar in the early 1900s, and how very hot days decreased when rainfall and cloudy days increased from the 1970s. However, the correlation between very hot days and rainy days is ignored by ACORN 1, and even more so by ACORN 2. For example, ACORN cools 8 March 1924 from 38.2C to to 36.5C at Marble Bar, ending the world record, but there was no rainfall on 8 March 1924 so what caused the thermometer to be 1.7C warmer than it really was on that particular day (according to ACORN)? 1,187 fewer very hot days If this homogenisation is an accurate adjustment, it must be assumed the BoM identified a significant recording error in the standardised equipment and/or Stevenson screen, or an influential site move, in the first half of Marble Bar’s temperature record – sufficient to diminish the ability of rain clouds and clear skies to keep the daily temperature below or above 40C. Alternatively, the daily ACORN adjustments are due to area averaging based on daily temperatures at “neighbouring” weather stations. In 1923/24, the closest known weather stations with digitised daily temperatures were Port Hedland Post Office, a coastal site almost 140 kilometres away, and Broome Post Office about 440 kilometres to the north (long-term Nov-Apr average maxima : Port Hedland 34.6C; Broome 33.9C; Marble Bar 39.7C). Nullagine, about 120 kilometres south and without digitised daily temperatures, is an influential station (long-term Nov-Apr average maxima 37.6C). Although ACORN 2 substantially reduces the frequency of very hot days in the early 1900s at Marble Bar, both RAW and adjusted ACORN 2 maxima show the average temperature of the very hot 40C+ days was 42.4C in 1910-1964 and 42.3C in 1965-2019. As at most weather stations, Marble Bar’s temperature history has been influenced by shifting rainfall patterns rather than CO2. ACORN homogenisation of Australia’s temperature history doesn’t alter readings at the rainfall gauges since 1910, and seemingly ignores the correlation between cloudy days and very high temperatures. Averages
Average maxima ACORN 1 warmed 0.26C / ACORN 2 warmed 0.41C / RAW cooled 0.20C
The maximum averages show that ACORN’s reduction of very hot days in the history books is typical of broader adjustments to maximum temperatures on all days at Marble Bar before the 1970s. Not just very hot days Since 1910, Marble Bar has recorded daily maxima at or above 35C every month of the year. The animation below shows annual hot 35C+ days at Marble Bar in the RAW, ACORN 1 and ACORN 2 datasets from 1910 to 2019, as well as annual rainfall :
RAW hot day (35C+) annual averages: ACORN 1 hot day (35C+) annual averages: ACORN 2 hot day (35C+) annual averages: RAW hot day (35C+) annual average temperature: ACORN 1 hot day (35C+) annual average temperature: ACORN 2 hot day (35C+) annual average temperature: Annual rainfall averages:
Because annual rainfall can include downpours concentrated over just a few days and there isn’t necessarily any rainfall on cloudy days, another way to identify the correlation between hot or very hot days and cloudy rainfall days is to compare the average number of actual rainfall days each year, rather than total annual rainfall, since 1910. This clarifies the influence of downpours over a few days but can’t account for cloudy days without rainfall. The table below shows the averaged number of 35C+ and 40C+ days at Marble Bar in years when 10 to 19 days, 20 to 29 days, 30 to 39 days … 60 to 69 days of rainfall were recorded from 1910 to 2019:
Marble Bar is also noteworthy for recording 200 consecutive days of 35C+ from 5 October 1923 to 21 April 1924, averaging 41.7C, which ACORN 2 has reduced to 179 days from 19 October 1923 to 14 April 1924, averaging 41.5C. Which dataset do we believe? ACORN’s rewriting of Marble Bar’s climate history has warmed the town and encouraged the belief that CO2 is responsible for more hot and very hot days. If the BoM still believes its 2009 Climate Education web page and argues that Marble Bar retains its heatwave world record because the original 160 consecutive days of 37.8C+ in 1923/24 were valid and accurate, the credibility of ACORN is destroyed as a homogenisation process that persistently cools historic temperature observations around Australia. But If ACORN is touted as a world-class network that produces accurate historic temperatures, Marble Bar can no longer boast that it holds the heatwave world record. Either the original observations were accurate or the ACORN cooling adjustments are accurate, and the bureau can’t claim it’s both. • Further details here, a page with links to further analysis of hot and very hot day frequency in different Australian regions.
February 26th, 2020 | Tags: Australian temperatures, BOM, Gillham (Chris), Western Australia (WA) | Category: Global Warming, Meteorology | Print This Post | | … On twitter, there are a few photos suggesting that in Iran people are collapsing in the streets. The semiofficial news agencies are reporting the death toll in Qom alone is 50, but the official toll stands at 12, out of 61 reported cases. Iranian officials deny that Qom’s death toll is 50, but admitted 900 suspected cases were being tested. Some of the deaths are reported to be doctors and some of the infected are officials suggesting the virus has been spreading for weeks and is underreported. For example: the Chancellor of Qom’s Medical Sciences University, Dr. Mohammad-Reza Ghadir, had tested positive. If official stats are correct the death rate is 20%. It almost certainly isn’t, but either this virus is deadlier than ever, or Iranian officials are hiding a broader spread. Either way, every nation with high risk people (say, people over 60 years old) might consider suspending the flights til we know more. We would all probably be dealing with what Iran is right now if we had not closed flights to China weeks ago. The infection from Iran has spread to six countries so far –– Afghanistan, Iraq, Kuwait, Bahrain, Lebanon, Canada and Oman. But flights from China to Iran are apparently still open. Given the risk, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, Oman, Turkey, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Kuwait, Jordan, Ankara, Georgia and Tajikistan have stopped flights from Iran. Lebanon has reduced flights. However medical safety standards are lower in the USA, Australia, etc where it is fine for infected people to fly in without quarantine. Cheapest flights from Tehran to Melbourne are $761. The US CDC says it’s OK to fly to and from Iran, though older people should “consider” postponing their trip. Travellers should stay away from sick people and use hand sanitizer etc. That’s Alert Level 2. They have raised the alert to level 3 for travel to South Korea. “Avoid non-essential travel” — but hey, go if you really want to. There is seemingly no warning on CDC Travel Notices that people traveling to these countries risk getting caught inside them if flights are stopped or internal borders shut. Will we do rescue flights in plastic wrapped planes? Australian authorities say “reconsider your need to travel” and sternly warn “If you travel to Iran despite our advice, you will be screened for coronavirus (COVID-19) at airports. ” Which means someone will check your temperature, but not whether you have taken a panadol 2 hours ago and not whether you are an asymptomatic carrier. Flights from Iran are already cartoonized on twitter: Iranian flights already mocked in cartoons @BeholdIsrael
RadioFree Europe reports that Iran may be covering up infectionsApparently, Iranian health officials think quarantine is too old fashioned. For that reason alone we should stop all flights from Iran from entry. Amirabadi-Farahani [Qom lawmaker, who spoke in Parliament] said Qom should be quarantined, while also suggesting that nurses and other health-care workers lacked the necessary protective gear to treat coronavirus patients. [Deputy Health Minister Iraj] Harirchi told journalists that a quarantine in the holy city — where many senior ayatollahs and thousands of religious students are based — is unlikely to be efficient in controlling the spread of the disease that emerged in China in December. “We do not agree with quarantining Qom; the practice of using a quarantine is pre-World War I for the plague and cholera and Chinese [officials] are also unhappy with the quarantines imposed [in their country],” Harirchi said. The son of an 83-year-old woman who died in Qom over the weekend after being infected with the coronavirus told RFE/RL’s Radio Farda that she died while in quarantine in a hospital. He said doctors did not test him even though he had taken care of his mother before she was transferred to the hospital. “They asked me if I coughed and asked a few other questions,” the man, who identified himself as Reza, said. “Then they said, ‘You can go.'” ‘Recipe for a Massive Viral Outbreak’: Iran Emerges as a Worldwide ThreatDavid D. Kirkpatrick, Farnaz Fasshiki and Mujib Mashal, NY Times Experts worry that few Middle Eastern countries are ready to respond effectively to the threat posed by the virus. “How ready are these countries?” asked Dr. Montaser Bilbisi, an American-trained infectious disease specialist practicing in Amman, Jordan. “In all honesty, I have not seen the level of readiness that I have seen in China or elsewhere, and even some of the personal protective equipment is lacking.” In Jordan, for example, he said that he had not yet seen a fully protective hazardous materials suit. “So health care workers would be at very high risk for infection.” In Afghanistan, officials said the first confirmed case of the virus was a 35-year-old man from the western province of Herat who had recently traveled to Qom. Health officials declared a state of emergency in Herat. The government on Sunday had already suspended all air and ground travel to and from Iran. But the border is difficult to seal. Thousands cross every week for religious pilgrimages, trade, jobs and study — about 30,000 in January alone, the International Organization of Migration, an intergovernmental agency, reported. “In the past two weeks, more than a 1,000 people have visited or traveled to Qom from Herat, which means they come into closer contact with the virus,” the Afghan heath minister, Ferozuddin Feroz, said on Monday at a news conference in Kabul. Australians are installing renewable energy, per capita, faster than any place on Earth, or at least we were until 2020 when the subsidies and schemes ran out.  Per capita, Australia (all shades of red) is installing renewables
The Quarterly update for the Greenhouse Gas inventory is out and we can see just how much difference all those renewables make, which is almost nothing. Emissions have flatlined. Australians are paying record prices, risking blackouts, buying batteries and synchronous condensors, building new billion dollar interconnectors, losing companies overseas, and suffering voltage spikes. We’re playing chicken with our smelters, and party games with PeakSmart timers and extra domestic circuits so that electricity companies can manage our pool pumps and our air conditioners. And this is all we get?  Per capita, Australia (all shades of red) is installing renewables After adding so many wind farms and solar panels the electricity sector decreased emissions by only 1.2% on the year before. Electricity sector emissions decreased 1.8 per cent in the June quarter of 2019 on a ‘seasonally adjusted and weather normalised’P 8 P basis (Figure 6). This reflected strong increases in hydro and wind generation (42.0 and 14.8 per cent) and decreases in coal and natural gas generation (5.7 and 21.3 per cent) in the National Electricity Market (NEM). Over the year to June 2019, emissions from electricity decreased by 1.2 per cent compared with the year to June 2018. The electricity sector is Australia’s largest single source of emissions, and some of the gains in the last decade have come from efficiency, not from renewables, and from making electricity so unaffordable that it scares people into not using their air conditioners.  Per capita, Australia (all shades of red) is installing renewables Given all this, you might think the team at Reneweconomy might worry that renewables won’t save the planet and were a dismal and useless way to spend environmental money, but not so. They were pretty happy with a 2 percent fall in electricity emissions from Sept 2018 to Sept 2019. They were not impressed that as our electricity emissions had fallen, our diesel emissions have gone up the other way. Mostly for truckers, they say. How much of this is due to electrical generators?  …. Per capita Australians are using 40% less CO2 than they were 30 years ago, and this is what the Opposition calls, “a policy vacuum”. Perhaps it is a vacuum — of achievement. Australia has almost the fastest growing population in the West. Fifty percent population growth in 30 years, and we are aiming to cut emissions 27% on top of that? Over the period from 1989-90 to June 2019, Australia’s population grew strongly from 17.0 million to around 25.4 million.P 16,17 P This reflects growth of 48.8 per cent.  Per capita, Australia (all shades of red) is installing renewables The best way to keep Australian emissions down (apart from nukes) is to cut immigration, but left leaning politicians don’t want to discuss that, and nor apparently do left wing activist websites. Importing new left-leaning voters seems to be more important. By picking the most expensive and ineffective methods it’s almost like none of the people driving renewables even care about the CO2 emissions. February 25th, 2020 | Tags: CO2 emissions, Emissions (CO2) | Category: Global Warming | Print This Post | | Think this is pandemonium?Changing by the hour:
This is the danger of too many open borders and not enough testing. If things are this far advanced in Italy and Iran and South Korea what’s happening under the veil in Africa and Indonesia, and so many other places? Choices for the West include closing risky borders now, or later perhaps closing schools, events, football matches, movies, parties, and maybe elective surgery. Italy –a lesson in how fast things moveCurrent tally: 2 dead, 134 infections and 26 are severe (that’s 19%, and who knows what the lag is, or if this will get worse?) Football matches and the Venice carnival are being closed. There’s a ban on public events in 10 municipalities. In Italy, strict quarantine restrictions are in force in two northern “hotspot” regions close to Milan and Venice. Around 50,000 people cannot enter or leave several towns in Veneto and Lombardy for the next two weeks without special permission. Even outside the zone, many businesses and schools have suspended activities, and sporting events have been cancelled including several top-flight football matches. Italy still can’t find patient zero. So they don’t know if this quarantine of two regions will be enough. International quarantines are no fun, but domestic quarantines are worseLook at what’s happening in Italy (let alone China): Italian authorities have implemented draconian measures to try to halt the coronavirus outbreak in the north of the country, including imposing fines on anyone caught entering or leaving outbreak areas, as cases of the virus in the country rose to more than 130. Police are patrolling 11 towns – mostly in the Lombardy region, where the first locally transmitted case emerged – that have been in lockdown since Friday night. The Italian prime minister, Giuseppe Conte, said: “We have adopted a decree to protect the health of Italians, which is our priority and which ranks first in the list of constitutional values.” He urged people to “have faith in the political and scientific institutions, which are doing everything possible”. Locals wearing facemasks were already lined up outside a supermarket in the town of Casalpusterlengo, a 10-minute drive from Codogno, on Sunday morning. Shoppers were made to wait, then allowed to enter in groups of 40 inside the store to stock up on provisions. Three days ago the people living in these areas probably didn’t think they would suddenly be quarantined. Should we build holiday homes or new hospitals?As I said a week ago we have a choice. A two week mandatory quarantine is not the end of the world, and rocks and hard places are all around us. We could start building emergency hospital ICU rooms like China has, or we could start building quarantine cabins which are infinitely cheaper and ask all entrants from countries with uncontrolled cases of Covid 19* (or SARS CoV 2, whatever it is called) to go through a two week quarantine. This will limit traffic drastically, affecting weddings, conferences, holidays and all kinds of business. It will be costly and inconvenient, but it will possibly save people and quite a lot of money. (ICU care is $5000 a day). Separated families can still be reunited after the two week delay. Am I mad, stopping all flights to nations at risk seems like the cheap conservative option? Hope: Singapore infections are only growing slowly — but 5% need critical careSingapore did exhaustive thorough tracking and testing with isolation and have slowed the exponential curve significantly. Perhaps it’s possible to avoid closing borders, but it is a risky game, and Singapore hasn’t defeated it yet, though this curve is about as good as we might have hoped for last week.  Source: Ministry of Health, Singapore. | See also CNA The problem with this reactive approach is that if it doesn’t work, we risk running out of hospital beds, as well as domestic quarantines. Consider the ICU “critical” rate — there have been no deaths in Singapore so far, but fully 30% have been hospitalized, and 5% are critical. Singapore has about 12,000 hospital beds (of all sorts). With a ten day doubling rate all the hospital beds will be taken in about nine weeks and that’s just with coronavirus patients. It’s not clear how many of those beds are ICU. But it is clear that we need to put our thinking caps on. The range progressing to severe after an 8 day lag now ranges from 0 – 25%. Worldometer statistics with calculations of the proportion who need severe hospitalized care, with and without an 8 day lag.The China figures are underestimates because it’s China. Keep reading → …  Coronavirus, Covid-19, cases outside China. Source JoDiGraphics The short not-good news: It’s looking like early exponential growth outside China The cases outside China have reached 1,500. South Korean cases leap to Wise people might like to stock up the pantry just in case. As the people in some Italian towns just found out, there may not be a lot of warning. The extraordinary rise in South Korea:Four days ago South Korea had 30 cases. Now, 346. Where the percentage progressing to “severe” was nought, now it’s hard to calculate. How many infections did the country really have eight days ago? Officially, South Korea had 28, and of those, supposedly now 17 have recovered, 9 have progressed to severe and of those, 2 have died. It’s shifted from being the good news outlier to the place to watch. In South Korea many cases revolve around the Shincheonji Church which is considered to be cultlike. According to the NY Times people sit on the floor packed together, with no glasses or facemasks, they come when they are sick and are taught “not to be afraid of illness”. So the sudden freaky rise may not reflect bad luck but a kind of amplified “superspreader on steroids” visits a “virus farm in waiting”. Unfortunately the authorities can’t find about 700 of the 1,000 worshippers who were there to check them. If only patient #31 in South Korea had not turned up there with mild symptoms. Raw twitter tales of a country in seigeOn the twitter feed of #Coronavirus (if you dare) it’s tough. There are one or two images of people jumping out of windows in China, some mass killing of farm animals, plus even footage of pet cats and dogs being killed (it’s not clear they can catch this virus, as most viruses are species specific). It’s a warzone, and checkpoints are run with disturbing military efficiency. There are many shots of people are being forcibly dragged away by the Hazmat police. It’s a poignant kind of thing. Some of these people may not see loved ones again and if they don’t have coronavirus there would be much to fear from being incarcerated with those who do. One (see below) shows people being led in a roped long line. Another shows masses of people allegedly waiting to get their money from a bank in China. Is this the first bank run? (UPDATE Probably not — comments under it suggest it is not a bank). In others, people appear to be collapsing on trains, or sometimes in the street. It’s all unverified, and hard to know whether it’s one freak event or even a fake, but it’s a strange land. If people are going door to door to kill pets in China, it may be just a sign of a desperate (and possibly pointless) panicked reaction by some local authority? (It didn’t appear to be for food, but then, there are tweets talking about starvation.) How many progress to “Severe”? Still 0 – 11%
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The non-binding unenforceable Paris agreement was always a theatre show on the international stage, where most countries promise to do nothing, and the rest make promises they don’t keep. But it’s an excuse for the domestic Deep State to do whatever they want.
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