By Jo Nova
Betelgeuse is the red giant at the top of Orion. Image by yoshitaka2 from Pixabay
Astronomers are very excited. A new paper suggests Betelgeuse — the red giant in Orion — might be only a decade or two (or maybe a century) away from going supernova. It’s the sort of thing that only happens once in a thousand years. Whenever it does go boom, it will shine brighter than the moon, and dominate the sky for a few months to a year.
It’s 600 light years away, so if it is going to go supernova in the next twenty years, then, of course, it must have already happened and the light is on the way.
Before anyone cracks the champers, the new paper by Saio is based on models trying to figure out what’s happening on a pulsating ball of fire 5,600 trillion kilometers away.
Will We See a Supernova in Our Lifetimes?
There hasn’t been a supernova in our neighborhood since July 4, 1054, when Chinese astronomers observed a supernova, now labeled SN1054, that remained visible for almost two years. The remnants of that supernova are now called the Crab Nebula.
At the end of it’s life after a star runs out of hydrogen to fuse, it starts to collapse. The extra pressure and heat that generates kicks off fusion with the helium core which produces carbon. When the helium runs out the star shrinks again and pressurizes the carbon core, fusing carbon into bigger elements. But these stages are shorter and faster. Below is a graph of the timelines (with a log scale), and in Saio’s latest estimate Betelgeuse is already burning through the carbon core and has less than 20% of the carbon left, and maybe as low as 0.5%. The red line (the carbon) is theoretically bottoming out in less than 10 to 100 years.
….
The game is over when it fuses its way up to iron:
Charlie Martin:
If the star masses more than the Chandrasekhar limit, gravity causes the stellar material to continue fusing, producing elements farther and farther up to iron and nickel. Eventually, though, the core of the star is largely iron, and the fusion of iron takes more energy than it releases. At that point, the equilibrium of fusion heat and gravitational pressure is broken. The star collapses inward at 20% or more of the speed of light; the shockwave compresses the core until the atoms collapse; and the electrons meet the protons, converting them to neutrons and neutrinos and releasing immense amounts of energy — 100 “foe“, or about 1046 Joules.
We may not see the supernova, but from 6:40 minutes we can at least see Dr. Becky Smethurst get genuinely excited. She explains it well. Though what are the odds, a star 10 million years old reaching the end of days in the 21st century. OK, I’m skeptical…
Sometimes it’s nice to get away from politics.
Just how far is Betelgeuse?
To put in perspective how little we know, I typed in “how far is Betelgeuse” and discovered to my surprise, we don’t have much idea. Three years ago Betelgeuse was “discovered” to be much closer than we thought at 543 light years away. But in January this year it was found to be 724 light years from Earth, or at least between 613 and 881 light years away. Righto…
Betelgeuse is a biggie. See the progression of astronomical bodies up to Betelgeuse in set 5. If it were where our sun is, it would reach past the asteroid belt. Lucky it isn’t our sun.
Dave Jarvis (https://dave.autonoma.ca/)
REFERENCES
“The evolutionary stage of Betelgeuse inferred from its pulsation periods” by Saio et al.
I’ve moved the recliner to the deck and have the popcorn on. 🙂
Seriously, a neat post.
Thanks, Jo.
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When the popcorn is ready, if Betegeuse does not perform, you could watch a rerun of Beetlejuice.
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“Its showtime!”
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I thought that Beetlejuice was a new health drink being promoted by the WHO. To drink with crickets on toast………….
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That’s a lot of appropriate wit you’ve got there Johnny.
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Woah there! Crickets? Plural? Just how rich do you think the plebs will be in the Green New World?
I advise lowering your expectations.
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There has been a more recent supernova than the one observed by Chinese astronomers.There was one in 1572 which was studied by Tycho Brahe and also observed by other astronomers.
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When I was in New Guinea over fifty years back, I was given a Betel nut to try; powerful!
That reminded me of the topic of this post.
Is there something missing.
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Fascinating to read the outline of the collapse of the star and increase in density and equally amazing to think that a hundred years ago there were people putting together a picture of the internal structure of the atom.
They used the macro picture of the solar system as a template for the description they developed of the inner workings of the atom.
Bohr, Einstein, Stephan and Boltzmann etc ,,,, terrific imaginations.
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Is there something missing.
That’s an “l” of an idea.
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People have been predicting that Betelgeuse will go supernova for ages.
When it does go supernova, likely some time within the next 100,000 years, life on earth will be unharmed.
The masses are already terrified enough by supppsed global meltdown and the covid or some other future pandemic.
All we need now is the ignorant masses to be terrified of yet another non-event, as far as human life is concerned. But it will be very exciting to watch.
I remember taking photos and making visual observations of SN 1987A. I’m sure Betelgeuse will be more interesting as it will be closer and bigger.
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There’s this.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j635Cv2aOlA
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Which “masses” are already terrified David?
Everywhere I go I see traffic-choked streets: airports packed with travellers: cruise-ship terminals jammed and NOBODY worried at all that their CO2 footprint is gonna incinerate the planet.
Seriously. A handful of hysterics and mental midgets are scared of life, and this means “the masses” are falling for it? WTF?
Next time you have a spare moment check out home prices directly on the coast to see what the “masses” view of the future is…NO SEARISE. No super cyclones. No catastrophe. No nothing!
Wake up people. Maybe one person in a million actually frets over it AT ALL!
[email error, typos cause creation of new user with zero comments. Slows comment approval. – LVA]
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Hi Jo! Since Orion is doing a diving header in the southern hemisphere, Betelgeuse is at the bottom (not the top) of Orion as you and I see him. All the best.
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I was just referring to the photo. You are of course, correct that the hunter is upside down, downunder (and in NZ).
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I found the sight of Orion upside down quite upsetting when we first came to Australia! It looked so strange. Orion is my favourite constellation.
I’m too old to keep trying to view it ‘properly’ now; a fall would be more likely!
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Chris Bowen maintains that if we buy more EV’s and plant a few more wind turbines, Betelgeuse could be saved.
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‘Betelgeuse could do be saved’ maybe, but Chris Bowen never !
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Yes, its obviously Carbon’s fault again!
That woman on the video image looks as if her excitement for the day will be filming herself unboxing new knickers.. A video with a shocked-looking face on the front only ends in disappointment, although apparently Youtube insists on it now.
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Apparently, Betelgeuse implodes and goes supernova when it has depleted its carbon reserves. Net Zero Nirvana.
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Perhaps in about 5.4 billion years our Sun will become a red giant and the mass could reach out towards Earth, but it is too small to become a Super nova.
Our Sun is tiny compared to so many of the endless trillions of stars in the Universe (or multi-verses?) and I’m sure it’s something that Humans have SFA to worry about.
But perhaps the Albo and Bowen donkeys + the Greens BELIEVE we might stop this process by reducing our co2 emissions? SARC.
https://astronomy.stackexchange.com/questions/8001/will-earth-lose-the-moon-before-the-sun-goes-into-supernova
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Hypothetically if the Green Left were around when the sun becomes a red giant in 5.4 billion years, they would STILL be pushing their anti-energy policies.
They seem to be incapable of understanding basic science or even the fact that the sun is a variable star.
It won’t be a problem anyway because if the Left are allowed to get their way, Western civilisation will cease to exist and the Chicomms will have migrated to another star system by then…
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Astronomical distances are mind blowing. If Betalgeuse has blown it actually happened around 1300 AD !!
Kinda puts all our crap in perspective.
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When it goes supernova, and its core collapses, there are now gravitational wave observatories that can record the event.
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David,
We will have a definitive speed for gravity waves as we will receive the light and gravity waves . Plenty of opportunity for some advanced scientific observations – we will be able to test some theories . This will be massively more powerful than the Hadron Collider ….
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Old Goat,
The speed of gravity waves was predicted by Einstein and has been proven by observation such as when the first gravity waves were detected in the GW170817 event and other measurements. It is the speed of light. Newton predicted instantenous interaction, now disproven.
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Stars are fantastic things and astronomy is one of the oldest sciences.
But don’t hold your breath on this one, then again maybe . .
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Loved the planet/star size comparison, really brought home the scale of things.
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As history continues to be rewritten, we have the claim that:
See paper at:
https://arxiv.org/pdf/1808.01862
I’m not sure this truly qualifies as a scientific “discovery” (as it’s being promoted in various circles) rather its an observation without an hypothesis or understanding of the science. And any other primitive people could have and probably did make similar observations.
I don’t think this makes Aboriginals “astronomers” which is the current claim (that and “Australia’s first explorers, first navigators, first engineers, first farmers, first botanists, first scientists, first diplomats, first astronomers and first artists.” https://www.pelicanchildcare.com.au/g8ch_article_purple/naidoc-week-2020/ )
It makes them observers of their environment.
Science requires more than just making an observation. That is the start, but it then requires research, hypothesis, prediction etc.. I see no evidence that those steps were taken.
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I could say something, but it would be a massive OT 🙂
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If it ain’t published it ain’t science.
The Babylonians, Greeks, Chinese and Arabs all published and were therefore the first real scientists. And, their works are still taught today.
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It’s post modern science. Fact free. Everyone can be a consensus scientist. No mathematics, physics, chemistry required. You just have to agree with the mob. And anyone who does not agree will have to flee or be locked up.
Then you get paleolithic science which predates agriculture, tools, writing and most nouns as they were not needed. Think of every item of clothing you have and everything around you, hundreds of nouns. And then think how much more free and scientific you would be without them. The Noble Scientist.
This is more than appropriate Lion King science of stars.
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They also claim there was a rainbow serpent so I’d take their astronomy knowledge with a grain of salt
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Has all the hallmarks of Halleys Comet, which was a fizzer. Which means when Betelgeuse blows up (or in?) it will be an indistinct fuzzy red dot that requires a telescope to observe.
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Comet Kohoutek, designation C/1973 E1, was another fizzer.
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I can die happy.
I saw Comet Bennett in 1970, and strangely, for one of the most visible comets in recent times, it hardly rates a mention these days, and I can’t recall meeting anyone who did see it.
It just ‘hung’ there in the sky for such a long time.
I was with the RAAF, and based at Amberley at the time, and our Squadron (1OCU, Canberra Bombers) had an ‘exercise’ during the time the Comet was highly visible. We started work at around 2.30AM, and you just couldn’t help looking up in awe really. Most of the blokes were amazed that it wasn’t moving. They sort of expected it to be like a meteor, visibly moving across the sky.
Tony.
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That’s a shame. It’s my favorite red star and in my favorite Constellation Orion. And frankly the only constellation which is obvious. Apart perhaps from the Southern Cross which was never seen by Europeans north of Africa. We can see Orion in the summer months when it is up at night overhead in February and Scorpio in the winter months.
But if it blew up 600 years ago there’s nothing the Albanese government can do about it. Better to concentrate on “The Voice” and more windmills, the most pressing needs of Australians.
I wonder if we can see any advance warning? A faster than light particle orders a drink. A tachyon walks into a bar.
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My thoughts too TdeF. It’s one of the easiest stars to spot in the summer sky, and Orion points to so many others like Sirius, Aldeberan (Taurus), Castor and Pollux and the Plieades cluster.
I would miss Betelgeuse, but at least we get a new nebula.
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By themselves, stars cannot explode. Stars are not hydrogen Stars they are plasmas Stars. If a giant star would die, for which no evidence exists, it would die by electron depletion. Its plasma would then simply disperse. The star would in effect vanish as if it had never existed. Only structures that consist of atomic materials can explode.
We live in an electric universe.
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I’d say that the Scorpio constellation is one that actually looks like what it’s description is, a scorpion. The rest of the zodiac, what were they drinking or even smoking?
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Stars are spheres of plasma, not hydrogen. Consequently, like our own Sun, they cannot explode. There is no energy contained within a sphere of plasma that would cause an explosion to happen. Does a Bradyon walk into a bar?
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Willis Eschenbach is still trying to understand our Star or Sun and Earth’s temperature and their models.
And Willis is not very impressed with Gavin Newsom’s regular power outages in California.
Not yet as regular and long as the South African blackouts, but just give him time and I’m sure Gavin’s California will catch up.
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2023/06/19/sun-temperatures-and-models/
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You can see the Southern Cross from the Big Island of Hawaii, in the Northern Hemisphere winter.
I hope it holds off for a year, as it would mess up the total eclipse in my back yard in April 2024.
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On a trip to the US, I recall seeing the Southern Cross out the starboard side window of the 747 until we were abeam of the Hawaiian group.
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Houston, we have a problem. Need a wee revision.
Kepler beheld on in 1604 that occurred in our Milky Way. Remarkably, at the time he was near blind.
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Well spotted.
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‘It’s 600 light years away, so if it is going to go supernova in the next twenty years, then, of course, it must have already happened and the light is on the way.’
This assumes that the speed of light (C) is equal in both directions – an unprovable hypothesis. All attempted measurements of one-way light speed either measure reflected light, or are obscured by time dilation. It’s impossible to measure.
Light might actually be infinite in one direction, and 1/2C in the other, meaning that we see things the instant they occur. We don’t know – the current constant C axiom was assumed by Einstein, but it makes no difference to his work either way.
From a philosophical perspective, the 1/2C scenario is fascinating. Scientifically and mathematically it is somewhat irrelevant. The conundrum is this: If C is constant then the Supernova will appear to have occurred 600 years ago, due to light travel time. If the 1/2C model is correct then we will see the Supernova as it happens, but it will appear to have occurred 600 years ago thanks to time dilation (thankyou Einstein!).
There you go, there’s some brain food for today.
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Thanks Uber,
It makes my brain hurt just to try to think about your 1/2C conjecture.
How about this however;
Ole Roemer’s measurement of the speed of light 1668-1678 measured the time difference of the occultation of the planet Io by Jupiter over the course of a year. The difference is the time taken for light to travel the diameter of the Earth’s orbit (about 16 minutes). The measurement is the speed of light toward us.
https://demonstrations.wolfram.com/RomersMeasurementOfTheSpeedOfLight/
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Michelson and Morley conducted that experiment in 1887, and it has been repeated a time or three since then.
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Some scientists – albeit a minority – do not believe that light is an emission. Instead, they believe that light is a perturbation of space-time (the ether, or whatever you call it, it’s a bit beyond me). That theory does make sense to me, because c is the same whether it’s light from a candle or light from a star.
It’s the same with sound, as sound is not an emission, but a perturbation of matter. The speed of sound is the same for a pin drop as it is for a detonation.
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That would be the “wave theory” of light.
I much prefer it to the “particle theory” which most scientists hold to be true.
I think it is easier to explain the photo electric effect with waves than it is to explain diffraction and interference using particles.
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Very deep :-).
The wave/particle duality is used because it works.
When calculating the details of the unseeable the most important thing is that “it works” and enables quantification of what’s going on.
Nevertheless there is one sub-atomic entity which has caused so much drama right here on these pages, and consequently cannot be named.
Is it a wave, is it a particle; the unmentionable.
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Let’s try.
Photon.
Photon.
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The Bohr theory and model of “the atom” has enabled so much to be done when working with the invisible.
Thank heaven for true models.
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…then again it might just be a dust cloud…
Come back in 700 years or so to find out.😎
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Thanks for recommending Dr.Becky. I’ve been watching her you tube videos for some time. She makes the science of astronomy much more watchable.
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OMG. All that “carbon”!!!! Will probably cause runaway climate change everywhere!
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We’ve already got a supernova. Her name is Joanne.
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🙄
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The nebula is not the remnant of an exploding star as nebulas are often regarded. Instead, it is an example of the typical features of the Primer Fields in operation. The fields form by the principles inherent in the flow of electric plasma in space. See David La Point’s YouTube: ‘The Primer Fields.’ The effect of the fields is that plasma streams that exist in galactic space in wide channels, become drawn together, like by a wide funnel, and become magnetically focused from the funnel onto a central Sun, or a system of multiples Suns that becomes intensely powered by this process. The planets exist outside of this densely powered sphere, on an ecliptic center on the Sun, between the two Primer Field structures. The plasma concentration process that we see in operation here, which is basically the same for every Sun, renders our Sun as an intensely powered catalytic energy converter, that is powered not from within, but is powered externally at its surface.
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