Brown coal is so cheap AEMO forgets to mention it

By Jo Nova

Many Australians face a 20% rise in their electricity bill this coming winter, so it seems odd that the AEMO* forgot to put the price of the cheapest source of electricity in their last quarterly report. The bid-setting prices for brown coal have been some of my favourite graphs, but this quarter, for the first time a whole energy source disappeared.  It would only be another 2 digit number in a 69 page report, yet the average winning bid of brown coal generators on our national grid last quarter is not even mentioned?

The nation faces major decisions about whether to continue to try changing global weather with our power plants. You would think Australians would like to know which fuel produces the cheapest electricity and by exactly how much? I mean, what’s the true cost of cooling Australia by a thousandth of a degree in 2100?

Perhaps the AEMO didn’t like that skeptics spread the message that brown coal could still generate electricity for  less than 4c/KWh, or that hydro and gas were seven times more expensive? After all, the head of the AEMO — Daniel Westerman — says we must ramp up renewables to avoid blackouts.

I’m sure the AEMO doesn’t want to misinform Australians so I decided to help them by adding in last years brown coal prices to this quarters graph instead:

AEMO Quarterly Report QED, Q4 2022

Price setting bids from different fuel types.

Obviously I’d use the current prices if the AEMO will tell us… we know they know what it is.

With 300 years of coal left, Australians could easily reduce electricity prices

The nation is still using brown coal, but only at about half the rate. When we had cheap electricity (2010), brown coal would generate 6GW. Now it is only about 3GW. Not surprisingly, the less brown coal we use, the higher the prices rise.

Brown coal, also known as lignite,
Gives good heat and is easy to light,
Vast thick seams are found,
Not far underground,
And much cheaper than black anthracite.

–Rauiri

Next winter could work out as badly as the last one:

Prices may yet go blockbuster in Australia with one black coal plant closing, and two other turbines broken and delayed another six months:

Callide C coal plant delays spark fears of winter energy crunch

The Australian

Further delays to the restart of the Callide C coal-fired power station in Queensland, coupled with the impending closure of AGL’s Liddell coal plant, have heightened fears of another harsh winter for the country’s vulnerable energy system.

The prospect of a repeat of last year’s unprecedented energy market intervention by the Australian Energy Market Operator is also seen a real possibility this year, particularly if further outages are reported or severe weather events limit coal supply.

CS Energy confirmed on Wednesday the restart of two major coal generators in Queensland would be delayed by up to six months, nearly two years after a major explosion forced one of the units to shut down.

*AEMO — Australian Energy Market Operator

REFERENCES

AEMO Quarterly Energy Dynamics (QED)  report

9.6 out of 10 based on 87 ratings

105 comments to Brown coal is so cheap AEMO forgets to mention it

  • #

    How to commit Economic/Energy suicide. Just follow Australia down the ‘Energy Transition Delusion Hole’.

    660

    • #
      Robdel

      I reckon we need a real energy crisis and prolonged blackouts before the populace comes to its senses and most politicians get blamed for the impasse.

      640

      • #
        William

        The problem is that all of us who have been vocal and active against this madness will suffer along with the useful fools who allowed this insanity to happen. But yes, cold hard reality is the only thing that will wake up the gormless and deluded.

        480

        • #
          Muzza

          I have made provision for my generator to support essential services at home – bring on the blackouts to wake up the ‘useful idiots’!!

          180

          • #

            Umm, perhaps a little off topic I know, and this is not meant as criticism, more along the lines of an observation really.

            I keep hearing how people have purchased those small home generators to get by during what might become prolonged blackouts.

            All well and good, until they run out of the fuel to keep them operational.

            If ‘servos’ use electricity to pump the fuel to the bowser, and then into your fuel container, and there’s no electricity in a blackout, then how do you get replacement fuel to keep running those home generators. Pretty soon, you’re going to run out of fuel.

            Just as a side thing as well, imagine now all the food in your fridge and freezer going off, (within hours in fact) and then think of Coles or Woolies, and by law, they must toss everything out if the power is off for even minutes.

            All the food in your own fridge and freezer is gone, and you can’t get any more, well, Coles and Woolies would be closed anyway.

            I can only recall the power loss in Rockhampton following Cyclone Marcia, most areas without power for a week. There were street based barbecues to eat the last of the food by day two/three, and then it was ‘catch as catch can’, or more like chaos. I was listening on my trusty 55 year old National Panasonic R-247JB Transistor Radio on the Saturday morning following the Friday ‘blow’, and there was an absolutely desperate call for a diesel fuel semi trailer for the hospital, as their emergency backup generators were desperately low on fuel, and they needed a truckload of diesel.

            I also heard people calling in on the radio during the ‘event’ saying that they had home generators, but after they ran out of fuel, they were just useless. There were also cases of the Council placing generators at important highway intersections to operate the traffic lights to prevent chaos, and those generators were being stolen, almost as quickly as they were put in place.

            Losing power for an hour even is hard to handle, many hours and there’s the fridge contents gone, days on end is almost too awful to contemplate. Luckily, our gas barbecue had a full bottle of gas, and I have a small backup bottle as well.

            That was the whole of Rockhampton, a city of 50,000 people. I could not imagine power loss on any scale, and I feel certain that something like that is every politicians worst nightmare, so they will do everything possible to avoid that, as evidenced in South Australia, and the large diesel generators the Government purchased there.

            No, losing power is nothing to even contemplate.

            Tony.

            380

            • #
              BrianTheEngineer

              We need to publish a survival guide.
              Extra swap and go gas cylinders, batteries for torches, camp stoves, etc
              Yes it will be a nightmare but I think it is coming.
              Would the Greens allow backup diesel gensets per SA?

              111

              • #
                Hivemind

                Once they work out what people are doing, they’ll ban it – unless it’s run on wind power.

                40

            • #
              Kalm Keith

              This detail is important, if only the public could absorb that reality and try to fix the basic problem: politics and greed.

              110

            • #
              John Connor II

              Or get a multi fuel generator, so you can use propane or petrol, as I mentioned b4.
              I also have a 5kw continuous pure sine inverter, deployable solar, Li-ion batts.
              Buy a solar shower or an instant hot water heater as campers use.
              Stock up on dry and tinned food so there’s no need to cook or refrigerate.
              Frozen food will thaw in a day or more depending on your location but should be safe to refreeze in most cases, which I’ve done for decades without incident. This “if it’s thawed out, throw it out” theory is wrong for a home environment despite its followers.
              I experienced a 3 day power outage 10 years ago and the food in the chest freezer hadn’t even fully thawed.
              No real drama for the prepared ones.

              90

            • #
              Mike Jonas

              “something like that is every politicians worst nightmare, so they will do everything possible to avoid that”.

              No sign yet.

              110

            • #
              b.nice

              “No, losing power is nothing to even contemplate.”

              And yet that is EXACTLY what our current crop of politicians seem intent on accomplishing.

              Teal and Green seats first, please. !

              180

              • #
                Just+Thinkin'

                The NEM and AEMO show EVERY sign of being a PONZI scheme.

                My take on this.

                OPEN the inter-connectors between the states.
                And LOCK them open.

                If a state wants to take the “ruinable” path then
                so be it. Let them live with that decision.

                Remember when the States used to offer cheaper power prices
                if a manufacturer moved their business to said state.

                Not much chance of that happening now with all the private
                companies milking the system.

                The people of Australia have been sold down the river.
                And 97% would not have a clue.

                20

            • #
              Paul Miskelly

              Anton,
              As usual, valuable information, and informative and succinct.

              Of publications that I have found on the impacts of a widespread, prolonged electricity blackout, I have found that at the following link to be very informative:

              https://publikationen.bibliothek.kit.edu/1000103292/122337755
              It includes the scenarios that you mention, and a lot more besides.

              Another, summary-by-critical-sector, of impacts, from the same group, is at:
              https://publikationen.bibliothek.kit.edu/1000137664#

              These publications are written by the Office of Technology Assessment (TAB) at the German Bundestag. See:
              https://www.tab-beim-bundestag.de/english/projects_hazards-and-vulnerability-in-modern-societies-blackout.php

              I trust that this is useful.
              Best regards,
              Paul Miskelly

              40

            • #
              Old Goat

              Tony,
              Time to join the preppers . There was a time when we didn’t have all the devices that we use today and the skills/knowledge to survive are getting lost . Preserving food is virtually a bygone skill (just ask your nana…) .

              00

            • #
              Lawrie

              I always respect your comments Tony but sometimes people do need a sharp whack to make them see sense. I am not talking about politicians here because the ones that can influence the outcome are inflicted with the stupid gene. I am talking about Joe and Jane Average who do need to suffer before they finally say enough is enough. I know those responsible will spin this like crazy and blame Putin or the polar bears unless we have a strong opposition leader and a few media who start telling some facts and laying blame where it belongs. At some stage the Coalition has to see a way to victory next election by hammering the pointless Net Zero and that means abandoning the current bipartisan approach. Yachts may have the same wind but one wins by changing tack.

              60

            • #
              paul courtney

              Tony: Your comment reminds me of recent story here in USA that dem activists proposed banning NG stoves to save the planet. There was outrage and backlash, to the point where the dems had to blame Trump (??!!) or something. The folks who say “take my NG range from my cold, dead hands” think they won this round. They don’t realize that enviro-activists will compromise like so- you can have your NG stove, but there’s no NG being supplied, saving the planet and all.

              10

        • #
          Bob Close

          Agreed guys, we have to let the system fail to wake up the lazy populace. And where should that happen first- Victoria of course- because that’s the home of the most diligent anti-economic growth Greens, climate change nutters and the alarmist academics who are fulminating this Net Zero rubbish!
          Let them feel the cold and dark with no electricity, that should sharpen up their wits, as to where their anti -scientific ideology is leading them and us poor sods tagging along for the ride.
          My question is- when are the people going to learn that CO2 is not a pollutant but the gas of life?
          The more we have of it in the atmosphere the better life will be, so fossil fuels are saving the planet, Not wrecking it. The ignorance of the populace bewilders me, but the ignorance of bureaucrats and politicians astounds me. I guess after 75 years on this planet I should have figured that out decades ago, but I’me an optimist, so maybe in the next 5 years they will get the message.

          60

          • #

            We must be careful not to “wait for the inevitable”. If we have not done the hard yards while we still can, when the crash comes, the collectivists will use it to increase their own power. We already know the drill — The grid failure is due to coal, it’s fossil fuel dependence. It’s the Russians. It’s old coal plants. It’s privatization. It’s capitalism. It’s the market system.

            We need to lay the groundwork now, so that when things go badly, everyone knows why it failed.

            There is no rest for good people.

            140

            • #
              Lawrie

              That would be much simpler to accomplish if we did not have a “me too” parliament. All we need is for the Coalition to see what is happening and then go the other way. Dump Net Zero and leave Labor, the Greens and the Teals to wear the coming blackouts all by themselves. A Tony Abbott would be out there now banging his NO NET ZERO drum plus BRING BACK COAL.

              31

              • #
                Geoff Sherrington

                Lawrie,
                Last 5 years I wrote lots of clear letters to Coalition back room planners suggesting tears would flow at election times if they failed to bite the bullet and oppose net zero.
                The response I got every time was the same.
                No reply.
                Geoff S

                60

    • #
      Gbees

      I consider this treason.

      170

    • #
      Geoff Croker

      Just split water at sub 10kWhrs/kg (now possible), add nitrogen to get ammonia, then get all the CO2 you can from brown coal power stations to make urea. CO2 problem solved.

      or

      Spend A$1B looking into it.

      60

  • #
    Ted1.

    About the Callide breakdown, so slow to get repaiired.

    I read that one of those generators “motored” for more than 30 minutes before breaking down.

    I would have expected such an event to have set bells ringing instantly the problem started.

    It looks to me that gross negligence, even sabotage might be involved.

    190

  • #
    Rick

    Hmm… two and a half years to get a couple of generators running in QLD, while we are to believe that in Ukraine the Russians can obliterate and entire power station and it can be up and running again in a few days.
    Long ago I came to the conclusion that almost without exception, what we are told by our governments and public servants is absolute BS. And this has been born out by all the recent revelations about what we were told about Wuflu and vaccines.
    All those ‘conspiracy theories’ been proven to be absolutely true.

    510

    • #

      The Queensland Government tried to gloss over this Callide ‘event’ telling us that it was of a minor nature.

      I detailed it on the morning directly after the event at this Post of Mine – https://papundits.wordpress.com/2021/05/26/the-queensland-blackout-tuesday-24-may-2021/

      Blah blah blah, but read right at the bottom where I mentioned this:

      My guess is that this Unit which exploded is now destroyed, and will need to be completely replaced. I wonder if this Government so hell bent on (talking about) renewable power will look if it now goes ahead and replaces a coal fired Unit. It waits to be seen, but at the moment, they are all saying that it will be up and running soon.

      ….. “up and running soon.” Yeah! Right!

      Tony.

      220

      • #

        And the Queensland Guv’ment has plenty of borrowed money to waste on lots of planned pumped mini Hydro’s. A brand new HELE Coal fired Power Station could have been built while Callide C has been out of operation. Just ask the Chinese.

        180

    • #
      Mike Jonas

      Q. Are you a conspiracy theorist if there really is a conspiracy.
      A. Only a denier would ask that question.

      70

  • #
    RickWill

    Their ABC has shifted its stance slightly on the closure of Liddell. Rather than cheering on the closure they are looking for high ground and is positioned to say they anticipated higher prices and possible outages:

    Will power prices go up?

    Don’t rule it out.

    Energy system operator, AEMO, is already warning of a supply shortfall with five power stations to close across the country before the end of this decade — that’s about 13 per cent of the national supply.

    “Urgent and ongoing investment in renewable energy, long-duration storage and transmission is needed to reliably meet demand from Australian homes and businesses,” AEMO chief executive Daniel Westerman said.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-03-05/liddell-coal-fired-power-station-about-to-close-what-comes-next/102027488

    It appears that there are people wanting to see rolling blackouts in Australia. South Africa have established an information system for informing consumers when power will be available. Maybe Australia can use the SA system as a template.

    310

    • #
      Robert Swan

      I don’t think they’re after any high ground, it’s just the ABC’s daily pre-election drumbeat of “NSW is badly run”.

      230

    • #
      William

      Those utter moronic fools need to be strapped into chairs and forced to watch Simon Michaux’s presentation – they will probably need someone to explain the bigger words to them.

      120

    • #
      Gee Aye

      The ABC is not shifting stance, it is reporting news.

      132

      • #

        The ABC very rarely reports the News. It like the others keeps giving opinionated slants to everything.

        James Dibble was the last ABC Presenter to report the News.

        290

        • #
          BrianTheEngineer

          I have a friend who thinks insiders is right wing.

          80

          • #
            b.nice

            Facts and data are nearly always described as ” unfair”, “racist”, or “right-wing” by the far-left!

            And no, the ABC reports are generally biased and twisted by their leftist agendas. That is not news to anyone. !

            130

      • #
        John Connor II

        The ABC is not shifting stance, it is reporting news.

        Just like CNN does eh.
        Bwaahaahaa 🤣🤣🤣

        130

  • #
    David Maddison

    Obviously I’d use the current prices if the AEMO will tell us… we know they know what it is.

    We know they are lying.
    They know they are lying.
    They know that we know they are lying.
    We know that they know we know they are lying.
    And still they continue to lie.

    — Alexander Solzhenitsyn

    450

  • #
    Graeme No.3

    That might explain why our politicians in South Australia were so keen to ban any new coal or gas production. Mostly blame the Ad-Libs.

    https://ecat.ga.gov.au/geonetwork/srv/eng/catalog.search#/metadata/74097

    80

  • #
    David Maddison

    Brown coal has been demonised by the Left, even more so than other useful fuels.

    Fundamentally, brown coal is almost the same stuff as other coal. The main difference is that it contains water so it appears to generate more CO2 per unit of weight than other coal even though the fundamental chemical reaction of combustion is the same. And of course, CO2 is only good for the environment. Plus, efficient drying technologies have been developed.

    There is no problem with burning brown coal for efficient, reliable and cheap electricity generation.

    But the powerful anti-energy lobby / Left don’t want efficient, reliable and cheap electricity (for non-Elites).

    411

    • #
      melbourne resident

      David – I audited Hazelwood before it was sold by Kennett – they actually had tried to sun dry the coal to improve its efficiency – but it used too much energy to conveyor it to the large spaces needed and then to bring it back when dry. triple handling of a substance instead of single handling simply adds to its cost.

      00

  • #
    Mooka

    The politicians keep making stupid decisions because there’s no repercussions for their stupidity.
    This needs to change.

    380

    • #
      Kalm Keith

      Shirley,
      you’re not thinking of the dread Accountability?

      All for it.

      190

    • #
      Bob Close

      No Mooka, there are elections!
      Normally governments like in ‘Andrew’s world’-sorry Victoria, get kicked out for all the spendthrift policies and outright mistakes they make, mostly due to their Left wing ideology. However, if there is no competent opposition in play, people vote for the devil they know or trust more.
      Victoria has abundant brown coal resources that could generate really cheap electricity for the next century if they wanted to, and also a major on-shore resource of backup natural gas in East Gippsland. So the only reason that state is having energy issues is related to climate science ideology by environmental elites that have captured the political left and ignorant middle ground (Teals) with their virtue signaling. The public needs to educated as to what the real science says about our current benign warming climate, and wise up to the lies and obscurifications of this powerful lobby, who want to reduce economic growth and the pace of modern society for their own ends, and to hell with the rest of us who don’t count.

      00

  • #
    Neville

    The trouble is we’re wrecking our electricity grids for a guaranteed ZERO return for decades into the future and at a cost of tens of billions of dollars.
    Certainly ZERO change to our climate or temp, but massive negative changes to our economy and once prosperous way of life.
    Yet our stupid pollies, so called scientists, MSM etc are very happy with this dire situation.
    Why have we become so clueless since the 1990’s and why do the majority of Aussies BELIEVE these donkeys and seem to want to ignore proper data and evidence?

    380

    • #

      Apparently, over the last 20 years the World has spent around 5 Trillion US Dollars to reduce the World’s use of Hydrocarbons for Energy from 84% to 82%. That 5 Trillion US Dollars primarily went towards Solar and Windmills. And here in Australia, the Electric and Gas Bills keep going up, up and away.

      And Climate Change over those 20 years has been……………NOT getting hotter. In fact, the indications are for colder weather.

      281

    • #
      BrianTheEngineer

      The money has been already spent and wasted. The bills can’t come down.

      60

  • #
    another ian

    “The missing finger writes and having writ”

    50

  • #
    dumb jaffa

    With 300 years of coal, why are we ignoring GTL?

    Around a decade ago, on this very site, we we blessed to have input from Richard S Courtney.

    He developed a GTL technique for the Thatcher government.

    I believe it was shut down & the reports & technique were put under the Secrets Act as at the time it possibly would have de-stabilised the Brent Crude Bench Mark [?] ( or possibly re-invigorated Coal Mining Unions?)

    It or Middle Distillate Synthesis should be a large component of Energy Security Policy Debate in this country but that would only be if the ” political system” was comprised of honest representatives, responsible to the people.

    [And the people had the means of ensuring it]

    Nothing yet has the energy density & portability of liquid hydrocarbons.

    151

    • #
      David Maddison

      According to the following, which is a little out of date:

      “Coal can be converted through proven, existing modern technology into clean, zero-sulfur synthetic oil and oil products at a cost of approximately US$35 per barrel – compared to the current world price of about US$67 per barrel for oil.”

      https://www.nma.org/pdf/liquid_coal_fuels_100505.pdf

      But the issue is that the anti-energy lobby don’t want us using liquid fuels because they don’t want non-Elites to be driving.

      Hence, the “15 minute city” the Left are now pushing. You will be never leave your 15 minute city just like the Medieval serf who was born and would die in the same village and never leave.

      It is not about logic, efficiency or cost.

      This is all about an assault on our freedom and all Enlightenment values.

      260

      • #
        melbourne resident

        When South Africa was threatened with an oil ban – they built the massive Oil from coal plant SASOL2 (which I did much of the foundation investigations for) They parked it on top of massive black coal reserves in the Eastern Transvaal to minimise the transport of the coal to the Kellog process. It wasnt just about oil security, it was also a great source of other chemicals – eg ammonia, sulphur, etc. They proved that on a large enough scale – as long as oil price was over $30 a barrel – then it was also economic.

        20

  • #
    Simon

    Brown coal is a .

    129

    • #
      • #
        David Maddison

        No. Windmills amd solar are stranded and useless.

        Coal, oil and gas in all their forms are highly useful and essential for Civilisation.

        And why does your heroine Greta, and all the other Elites wear fossil fuel derived clothes and use other products derived from them?

        391

      • #

        No htmltags ? are you sure ?

        I have no probs with

        If you klick on the 4. button, you can create a link, write your linktext and finish with </a>
        Never heard how to create html tags ?

        90

        • #
          Kalm Keith

          Poor boy? it’s, he’s , they’re just portraying itself as a victim, and in 2023 we must give such entities the best emotional support possible.

          71

      • #
      • #
        b.nice

        “According to a study in “Nature” LOL !!

        ie the far-leftist activist propaganda rag that is for the most part devoid of anything approaching real science.

        Is that the rag you linked to !

        80

        • #
          Richard C (NZ)

          >”According to a 2022 study in the journal Nature, an estimated 60% of oil and gas reserves and 90% of known coal reserves should remain unused in order to limit global warming to 1.5°C”

          “should remain unused” i.e. the assets aren’t “stranded” at all. This is simply the circular reasoning of a contrived constraint based on a similarly contrived limit.

          And given “global” 1.5°C is an average of divergent and disparate NH (warmer) and SH (cooler) data, why should the SH be constrained by NH data?

          70

          • #
            Richard C (NZ)

            >”According to a 2022 study in the journal Nature, an estimated 60% of oil and gas reserves and 90% of known coal reserves should remain unused in order to limit global warming to 1.5°C”

            This is of course predicated on the IPCC’s CO2 forcing theory of climate being valid.

            So far in the 21st Century, observations are not validating the IPCC’s theory:

            “It doesn’t matter how beautiful your theory is, it doesn’t matter how smart you are. If it doesn’t agree with experiment, it’s wrong.”

            Richard P. Feynman

            60

      • #
        Richard C (NZ)

        Simon >”Brown coal is a stranded asset”

        Speaking of stranded assets, shouldn’t you be out clearing slash from East Coast NZ rivers, bridges, farms, orchards, beaches…?

        Or is that not a forest manager’s ethical duty?

        81

      • #
        b.nice

        And the Grantham Institute is probably one of the closest institutes to an old style “Institute”..

        … where they locked up lunatics and the mentally deranged.

        One of the foremost pushers of the “climate change” scam..

        No funding from the far-left.. of course 😉

        51

      • #
        Robert Swan

        No Simon, brown coal isn’t a stranded asset, it’s a beached asset — deliberately beached — but don’t worry, it’s still there, and will be refloated in due course.

        61

        • #
          b.nice

          Actually, Victoria is still getting, at this moment, 79% of its grid electricity from brown coal.

          Hardly “stranded”, or “beached.”…

          Very much the main player, responsible for most of the score.!

          Wind, the other hand, is just 1%, and tonight, solar will be ZERO.

          70

          • #
            Gary S

            King Island right now – 2% wind, 2%solar, 96% DIESEL.

            30

            • #
              b.nice

              Seems like fossil fuels are the ONLY ASSET worth considering when it comes to electricity.

              Wind and solar are basically still a TOY, based only on virtue-seeking.

              50

    • #
      b.nice

      Wind and solar are NEGATIVE assets… they “take” like all things leftist.

      Brown coal only seems “stranded” because of idiotic green agendas followed by equally gormless politicians

      It is actually the cheapest energy supply available anywhere, and once dried is on par with the good quality black coal. Even the Germans know that.

      Plus.. it FEEDED the world’s plant life, whereas wind and solar provide absolutely nothing.

      81

  • #
    Neville

    AGAIN the OECD haven’t increased co2 emissions since 1970 and China, India and the non OECD have seen co2 emissions SOAR for decades.
    And still many hundreds of COAL plants yet to be built. So why are we throttling our future and our freedom or are we really too stupid to understand?
    AGAIN here’s the EVIDENCE.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_carbon_dioxide_emissions#/media/File:World_fossil_carbon_dioxide_emissions_six_top_countries_and_confederations.png

    150

  • #
    Ross

    The CSIRO are also providing cover for Chris Bowen and the AEMO, by publishing their terribly inaccurate GENCOST figures for all the possible electricity generation modes. So, when Bowen and all his mates say solar/wind are the cheapest they aren’t really telling lies are they? It’s a bit like George Constanza from Seinfeld – “its not a lie, if you believe it to be true”.

    170

  • #
    NuThink

    This TV ad running at the moment is bragging about pumped storage that Energy Australia are building which will provide reliable power to 280,000 homes and businesses.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iKeUXcuQbxw

    Sounds impressive.

    VSM (Very Simple Maths) tells therefore approx 2.8 % of the housholds will get the reliable power, and 97.2% will NOT get it. (asuming 10 million households in Oz).

    Suddenly NOT so impressive.

    Is my VSM correct because I am not an expert.

    120

    • #
      David Maddison

      It seems all these “green” energy (sic) projects always seem to be claimed to be supposedly capable of powering “280,000 homes”. Almost always that exact number, LoL.

      110

      • #
        NuThink

        David, I forgot to mention that they will need 35 (thirty five) such PS (Pumped Storage or Public Service) schemes to give every houshold a reliable supply of electricty, and give lots of jobs to the inner clique.

        I use the term reliable here just becasue the ad uses it. At one place I worked one of the techs reporting to the management said that the machine was now reliable. I contested his claim, so he rephrased it to “reliable between failures”.

        80

  • #
    TdeF

    Fracking is illegal in Victoria. Much gas exploration is banned. Huge natural gas reserves in Victoria are untapped when no processing is required but we are going to import gas? We are not even allowed to pick up fallen branches in the forest. There is no Green agenda here. This is well past ignorance or stupidity.

    Premier Daniel Andrews is doing what he is told by his Chinese masters. They have a long term plan of world domination starting with the UN/WHO/IPCC and Taiwan and interfering with elections across the world. They don’t want us wasting their future resources.

    No one should be surprised. As with Hitler before WWII, it’s stated and in plain sight but we do not want to believe it. We were severely punished for even asking about the origins of the Wuhan Flu. And they certainly don’t want us defending ourselves with nuclear submarines.

    And so far the conspiracy theories are proving right. We are blowing up working coal power stations while Chinese CO2 production is booming and currently 56% of all CO2, more than all other countries combined. And Greta Thunberg and the UN and IPCC and the Greens have nothing to say. Why?

    230

    • #
      Ted1.

      If I was a Chinese communist i wouldn’t be overly fussed by the outing of the Wuhan Lab. There were other big names with their fingers in that pie.

      What would be cheesing me off is the outing of the Belt and Road program.

      100

  • #
    Ted1.

    It’s not at the households that the biggest effect of the high energy prices will be felt.

    It’s at the employers’ balance sheets and their capacity to employ that the biggest effect will be found.

    WE have a government which, despite the examples around the world that didn’t work, believes that the government can set prices.

    How long will it take before they realise they were wrong, and how much damage will be done before they do?

    160

  • #
    STJOHNOFGRAFTON

    We’re foundering. Lighten the ship. Throw everything overboard! Our Gov is selling off Aussie assets cheap to overseas buyers like India and China whilst most Aussies have to buckle up under the slavery of NetZero madness. Australia has developed into a bargain price resource milch cow for developing nations who applaud our NetZero fanaticism whilst employing their own net-gain policies.

    130

  • #
    David Maddison

    “Stranded asset” as Simon declared coal to be is just a meaningless Leftist term designed to scare away uninformed, ignorant or woke investors. The value of an asset is determined by the marketplace and the demand for the product. There will always be a high demand for coal. If not locally, by the world’s largest (and increasing) CO2 emitter, China.

    Even as Australia and other Western countries fall under Leftist totalitarian rule, at some point, people will revolt against the government if the anti-energy policies of the Left are fully implemented and non-Elites are caused to freeze, starve and die due to overuse of wind and solar and ongoing destruction of real power stations.

    At that point, the government will be removed one way or another, and a rational pro-reason, pro-freedom government put in its place with a brief to urgently build proper coal, gas and nuclear power stations.

    240

  • #
    Robber

    Victorian electricity generation:
    2010/11: solar 0.1%, wind 0.3%, hydro 6.3%, gas 1.3%, brown coal 92.1%. Wholesale price $29.06/MWhr (Per OpenNEM)
    2021/22: solar 10.2%, wind 17.9%, hydro 5.1%, battery 0.2%, gas 3.0%, brown coal 63.6%. Wholesale price $103.93/MWhr.
    Add to the increased wholesale cost the increased costs of an ever expanding network to cope with intermittent supplies.
    Ah yes, chant after me: “Renewables are cheaper.” “Coal is evil.” ‘$275 reduction in our electricity bills.”
    But what about SA, the renewable State: Wholesale price was $41, now $126/MWhr.
    Qld $34 to $179
    NSW $43 to $144
    Renewable generators are parasites, slowly destroying reliable, cost effective generators.

    180

    • #
      Brenda Spence

      And the Reserve Bank is making interest rates higher because of inflation!

      No wonder there is mortgage stress, energy and fuel two of the worst and under govt control. Makes me sick!

      110

    • #
      Ross

      Generally the reply to those sort of comparative figures is that the rise in the MWhr is in line with inflation. It isn’t of course. Nor can anyone argue that the extra price is for “gold plating” the network. That’s also BS.

      30

  • #
    Kalm Keith

    Don’t worry about Brown Coal, our biggest problem is going to be “Brown Outs”, and even worser, the dreaded “Blek Oots”.

    Live in fear.

    81

    • #
      David Maddison

      I think “brown outs” and “black outs” will soon be declared “racist” terms by whoever the equivalent of Winston is in Australia’s Newspeak Department (Nineteen Eighty Four).

      As Syme explains to Winston, the “whole aim of Newspeak is to narrow the range of thought”….“in the end we shall make thoughtcrime literally impossible because there will be no words in which to express it.”

      Individual, rebellious, unorthodox or pro-freedom thoughts will soon be impossible.

      Just look how the Left are rewriting the language and even classic books, even right at this moment.

      To the Left, Nineteen Eighty Four was an instruction manual, not a warning.

      130

  • #
    Kalm Keith

    Australian Energy Market Operator

    There Is no Market.

    A market is a place where people can come and go freely and choose from available suppliers who are offering a product in good faith.

    Politicians have tried to distance themselves from this evil reconfiguration of what was previously a cheap publicly run service. And mostly they’ve succeeded.

    Now, the big question!

    Where’s The Money?

    120

  • #

    Brown coal, also known as lignite,
    Gives good heat and is easy to light,
    Vast thick seams are found,
    Not far underground,
    And much cheaper than black anthracite.

    170

  • #

    I have pressured my Federal member over the complete incompetence we see on a regular basis from all our govt agencies. Think the Health response to Covid, the BOM and now AEMO. But he just keeps his head down and will not speak out.

    I remember reading the AEMO reports from some time back, flagging clearly about the lack of baseload generation. But now, in response to ideological idiocy and due to the influence of past CEO Audrey Zibelmann teh AEMO sings from the same woke hymn sheet, and deny reality…

    150

    • #
      Mike Jonas

      “But he just keeps his head down and will not speak out.”.

      So he’s not National Party or One Nation.

      What a national tragedy that I can’t include Liberal Party in the above.

      90

      • #
        Memoryvault

        The Nationals, as a party, supported EVERY obnoxious attack on the citizens of this country, all the way back to John Howard’s clean energy legislation in 2007.

        That includes introduction of an emissions trading scheme in 2015, changes to banking regulations in 2018, the Cash Restrictions Act in 2019, establishment and funding of the Future Fund using taxpayers’ money, numerous dips into “our” super, and every iteration of the Online Safety Bill from 2015 to now.

        How the hell do you give them a clean bill of health?
        And with the exception of the Cash Restrictions Act, PHON have been almost as bad.

        40

        • #
          Ross

          Prime example – David Littleproud. I have heard him on numerous occasions pronounce that he believed in man made climate change. He’s national. Even down at Vic state level the National Party members ( all rural ) chant the same garbage.

          60

  • #
    Geoff Sherrington

    In my humble opinion that does not count, any official body like AEMO that fails to warn Govt and People that we are on an unsafe course that could lead to loss of lives should be prosecuted for manslaughter, should lives be lost in predictable ways.
    Those people in AEMO who refuse to acknowledge the harm of the views they choose to follow should not be in advisory management positions because they have the intellect of followers when leaders are needed.
    They write reports saying that they model with regard to Govt policy like net zero by 2050. But that is the excuse used after Hitler, of merely following orders, to which the War Crimes judges responded with the noose.
    There has to be a Govt body in the scheme of things that is instructed to warn of dangerous policy, not only bodies paid to not mention the harm.
    Geoff S

    90

    • #
      ianl

      Geoff, the Productivity Commission has done just that in the past – warned both Govt and the public out loud of what it regarded as dangerous policy.

      A past Productivity Commission President, Gary Banks, surfaced just this week to make such a warning. His contribution was probably discussed here, and it was published in The Australian, as it was a journalist working there who had done the Gary Banks interview.

      But here is the rub – The Australian report was very quickly and quietly deep-sixed; one had to know what to look for in the search box to find and read it. And even then it was *edited*, and we are left to guess what was deliberately censored. As far as I could tell, no other MSM outlet even acknowledged that such an interview had taken place, let alone its’ content.

      So irrespective of any hard common sense that may be available, it will not be published. It is the management, editors and journos who are equally accountable for the deaths coming from rationing.

      20

  • #
    Patrick Donnelly

    Lignite is a very valuable fertilizer! Humic and other acids are contained.

    Best to use not as a fuel

    20

  • #
    Keith Macdonald

    Snow and ice as UK records coldest March night since 2010
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-64883505

    You have to go almost to the end of that article to notice this part:

    “Yesterday the National Grid used its reserve coal power units for the first time ever, so extra electricity was available between 16:30 and 20:30 GMT. Two coal units at West Burton were sync’d into the National Grid during the afternoon and remained online until the evening. Now, this wasn’t the first time reserve coal power was ready to go, but it was the first time it had needed to be used.”

    There’s a faint glimmer of common sense in the UK after all! 🙂

    Prof. Carl-Otto Weiss, using solar cycles Fourier analysis, is predicting that temperatures will continue to decline to c.2050

    10

  • #
    John Ibbotson

    I’ve ploughed through all the replies some great, some glib but no one seemed to mention recharging of mobile phones. This might turn out to be a benefit, as long as the folks can remember how to communicate nose to nose with their next-door neighbours. Why the folks next door? That’s because their EV battery was flat. Ibbo

    10

    • #
      Ronin

      I,for one, can’t wait to see how the under 40’s cope with dead phones, this will be popcorn worthy.

      10

  • #
    Zigmaster

    I agree whole heartedly that we desperately need some major extended blackouts to highlight the issues cause by this crazy rush to renewables .The brain dead politicians running the show will however respond by blaming coal for the problem and the solution is that we have to transition faster. The sensible response should be let’s pause , take a breather, stop all subsidies on renewables and reverse the decisions to close down the coal fired plants until there is adequate baseload coal, gas or nuclear. Put the pause in place for three years by which time I suspect that sentiment towards renewables will have diminished to such an extent that there will have been a global collapse of the renewables industry and politicians spouting the global warming mantra will be out of office.
    Unfortunately Labor will not do anything sensible and will take their lemming supporters over the cliff. The worst thing is everyone else gets dragged over the cliff with them.

    30