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Scorching electricity price spikes in NSW and Queensland

Brisbane on May 3rd was a glorious 15 to 25C  (or 60F – 77F) and yet the price of electricity was shocking.

The scale of the graph is so distorted that all the normal price gyrations fall to nothing, and there is only the spike — a full hour of $14,000 burning for every megawatt, and the state needing 7,000 megawatts. The demand level, or load is not unusual, but it’s about $100 million in electricity.

And this is the nice time of year for electricity managers, or it used to be. With weather that’s ideal for human habitation most air-conditioners and heaters are off. But the sun is setting earlier, and solar power is shrinking just as everyone gets home from work to turn on the oven.

Some may blame the “lack of coal power”, but notice what’s happening to wind and solar power at critical time from 5:20pm to about 6:30pm.

Queensland energy sources, renewable, May 3, 2022

All the wind and solar power in Queensland on May 3, 2022 |

Though there are other factors at work too and some are a bit mysterious according to Paul McArdle. Queensland at one point had only a 7% instantaneous reserve plant margin, meaning there was almost no spare available generators.  The interconnectors between states are not sharing capacity. Something’s also gone wrong with a high voltage line: Ravine-Yass No. 2 330 kV Line has an unplanned outage. The AEMO issued a LOR1 – an actual Lack of Reserve notice.

In NSW it’s much the same thing

Something odd happens at 5:25pm and continues until 6:45pm. It’s another hundred million dollars worth of action.

What could it be?

 

NSW energy sources, renewable, May 3, 2022

All the wind and solar available in NSW.       Anero.id

 

For May 3rd the average 24 hours prices were a wild $780 per megawatt in NSW and $760 in Queensland. Ghastly. The situation wasn’t so good the day before either. On May 2nd in both Queensland and NSW the average daily prices were around $220/MW each.

Some will argue that the interconnectors were not up to the task, because the flow is very constrained between Victoria and NSW. But when we had enough coal power in each state, we didn’t need big interconnectors. And once upon a time, before we had the national grid, the states were separate and self-sufficient.

Extra interconnectors and infrastructure  are another hidden cost of renewable energy. Extra burning price spikes are too.

And if terrorists are paying attention it might occur to them to take out a transmission tower or two. The more renewables we have, the more effective a few hostile players can be.

For those who want more detail, Paul McArdle is watching closely at WattClarity.  He comments here on the interconnector from Victoria to New South Wales, that the constraint equations are limiting flows north and south. Presumably there is not enough spare reserve power? Perhaps someone with more knowhow can explain. If Victoria still had Hazelwood coal plant running, possibly they might not be constrained?

DATA: AEMO

h/t Rafe Champion. WattClarity.

9.7 out of 10 based on 74 ratings

257 comments to Scorching electricity price spikes in NSW and Queensland

  • #
    Just+Thinkin'

    If I didn’t know better, I would
    hazard a guess that the word “Ponzi”
    would raise it’s head here about the
    “control” of our electricity supply.
    Of course, I could be wrong.

    310

  • #
    b.nice

    Only a matter of time before we get a complete collapse on the NEM.

    Then maybe the politicians will wake up to the fact that building erratic and unreliable supplies into the grid…

    makes the grid inherently erratic and unreliable.

    630

    • #
      Lance

      This is precisely what happens when politicians and art history majors attempt to legislate engineering, economics, and markets, simultaneously.

      Emotional thinking is no match in Reality for objective thought with a keen eye to history, supply chains, grid power generation, reliability, dispatch, and the constant knowledge that generation follows the load ( which it had better, within seconds to minutes, lest there be voltage, frequency induced grid collapse)/

      Reality has the last laugh. It won’t be pretty or inexpensive.

      541

      • #
        max

        Ludwig von Mises in 1922 explained that socialism planing does not work and it will produce chaos. Also he explained that so called third way is impossible and will eventually end up in complete socialism.

        150

    • #
      Simon

      A distributed and diverse electricity grid is more reliable, not less. What you are seeing are price signals that there is insufficient capacity. Most consumers do not pay the spot price.

      474

      • #
        b.nice

        OMG, wake up to reality. !!

        A distributed grid can be more reliable, but only if the individual components are reliable.

        Wind and solar put an enormous strain on grid reliability that takes very large costs to manage.

        With wind and solar, there still has to be sufficient available electricity when they do their usual non-production.

        If you close down RELIABLE supplies, either deliberately or by economic bias, then that reliable electricity is no longer available…

        First you get wild swings in price.. then eventually.. total collapse.

        811

        • #
          Ian

          OMG, wake up to reality. !!

          Times are changing b.nice

          Ever heard of Michael Cannon-Brookes? Ever heard of AGL?

          Michael Cannnon-Brookes + AGL = reality

          There’s a lot going on in the boardrooms of which you seem unaware. Essentially Cannon-Brookes is trying to get AGL, a major player in Australia’s power supply, out of coal. If he succeeds it will significantly alter the playing field.

          AGL has ignored most energy experts about the realities of new technologies and that it was way too invested in the ‘coal will dominate for decades’ story line pushed by most industry incumbents, the federal Coalition government and much of the mainstream media. Greenpeace Australia Pacific senior campaigner Glenn Walker said.

          “At a time when AGL should be taking its role in Australia’s energy transition seriously, and planning for a safe transition away from coal by 2030, the company has instead chosen to try to hide its contribution to the climate crisis by demerging.”

          AGL will aim to implement the demerger in the first half of 2022 after receiving approval from shareholders. AGL’s interim CEO, Graeme Hunt, said the demerger would help retain investment value for its shareholders.

          Essentially Cannon-Brookes wants to stop the demerger as by doing so it will eventually force AGL out of coal

          245

          • #
            b.nice

            Only the most stupid people think the grid can exist on wind and solar.

            If they want the NEM grid to collapse.. sure .. get rid of coal. Way to go !

            “If he succeeds it will significantly alter the playing field. “

            Maybe.. to a playing field that is full of potholes. and no, it is not reality to get rid of coal.

            “Greenpeace Australia Pacific senior campaigner Glenn Walker “

            LOL… another of your “reliable” sources… So funny !!

            391

            • #
              Ian

              LOL… another of your “reliable” sources… So funny !!

              No b, nice it is the source from the man who has sufficient AGL shares to stop the demerger takinng place. Try that for size LOL

              318

              • #
                b.nice

                LOL, So you have a loonie green in charge of AGL, who actually uses Greenpeace as some sort of authority.

                Thanks for showing everybody the idiocy of the guy in charge at AGL.

                Doing a great job.

                251

              • #
                b.nice

                No thought of your own, of course Ian. 😉

                Just what someone else thinks.. that’s the way !

                91

              • #
                GreatAuntJanet

                Is Mikey pro-nuclear (y’know, with its no CO2 emissions) then? Because if you want to make windmills and solar panels, you’ll need some kind of reliable power to build them. I suppose we could just go on buying them from dirty China with all their coal power stations, it’s far enough away from us to not affect global CO2 levels?

                (btw, I am very happy to continue with coal and gas powering my life because I am aware that CO2 didn’t make floods happen, La Nina and other natural weather fluctuations did)

                151

              • #
                MP

                https://au.finance.yahoo.com/quote/AGL.AX/holders?p=AGL.AX
                https://www.accr.org.au/news/agl-agm-blackrock-support-demonstrates-australian-investors-lag-foreign-peers/
                The push by the Australasian Centre for Corporate Responsibility​ (ACCR) for AGL Energy Limited (ASX:AGL) to bring forward the closure dates of its coal-fired power stations continues to build momentum, despite a disappointing showing by proxy advisors and key investor signatories to the Climate Action 100+ initiative.

                While key Australian investors, superannuation funds and proxy advisors voted against the resolution, Blackrock, the world’s largest asset manager, voted in support of ACCR’s proposal.

                This resolution was based on AGL’s own FY2020 scenario analysis which shows that in order to limit global warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, AGL would have to close its three remaining coal-fired power stations by approximately 2036 – as opposed to the scheduled closure of Loy Yang in 2048, announced in 2015.

                The resolution was supported by 19.96% of shareholders (see results in ASX notice). Yeah but 74.59% said your dreaming.

                https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20201007/pdf/44nfz0ry4td13v.pdf
                “AGL continues to evade any substantive commitment to reduce emissions beyond the closure of Liddell in 2023 — most importantly, by failing to bring forward the closure of its remaining coal-fired power stations, which investors have long been asking of AGL.” Except the vast majority (229 million votes) said no!
                Lets change the constitution to ram this through, 89.32% said no to that as well, except this strange mob, Schwab Strategic Tr-Schwab Fundamental Intl Large Co Index ETF. This is Charles Schwab, not Santa Klaus. Billionaire Banker and one of the top 10 share holders in AGL after Vanguard.

                The shareholders voted overwhelmingly against changes to the constitution. What to do, send in one of the WEF puppets to buy up the shares.

                Do you know Klaus Schwab’s mother is a Rothschild!

                80

          • #
            Old Cocky

            AGL has been at the forefront of wind and solar, and has brought forward the closure of coal generation units.

            44

            • #
              b.nice

              And when they do close Liddell, that is when the **** will really hit the rotating blades.

              And of course, their gas electricity prices will sky-rocket….

              Much money to be made.

              151

            • #
              Antoine D'Arche

              So? That is hardly something worth crowing about. Only infants believe wind and solar can replace coal.

              110

          • #
            Antoine D'Arche

            Let me guess. You think that the grid can be supplied at it’s CURRENT level by renewables? That building enough wind and solar capacity can replace coal? Care to supply the maths to support this position?

            130

          • #
            Hasbeen

            AGL wants out of coal, only because with the crazy government incentives it makes a lot more money out of wind.

            Make power supply a level playing field, & wind will disappear very quickly.

            170

          • #
            Ronin

            “AGL has ignored most energy experts about the realities of new technologies.”

            New technologies, LOL, windmills have been around since the dark ages and were consigned to the dustbin the instant newer technologies appeared.

            110

            • #
              b.nice

              “realities of new technologies”

              And basically all other supplies touted as “new technology” are basically just distant dreams of unicorn farts !

              50

        • #
          Lawrie

          I recall in the very early 1950s when we were supplied electricity by the Muswellbrook Coal Company. They had their own mine, power plant and a gas generator for town gas. They offered my father a free connection if he promised to use electricity in the dairy and irrigation. Then came a bigger and more modern generator just out of town built by an American company. Next came Liddell power station and a state wide grid that was managed locally, in our case the Upper Hunter County Council. While ever the power system was owned by the state we had reliable and cheap power. Next came Energy Australia a state owned corporation supposedly run on commercial lines. After that came privatisation and the beginning of the current debacle. I still believe a series of small coal or nuclear plants serving the community in which they are located and interconnected would be a sensible idea from a security perspective as well as having local input in their operation. That takes us back to the early 1960s when things worked well and to the advantage of the community because the community elected the members of the council and could un-elect them when they did not perform. Country areas could have their reliable power and the inner city could do what they liked and pay the price.

          211

        • #
          Mark Allinson

          I really do wish we had a Planet B where the eco-loons could settle.

          It would be so funny to watch them trying to run their civilisation on wind-puffs, sun-beams and ideology.

          170

          • #
            Steve Keppel-Jones

            They don’t need a whole planet. See if they can run just one town on fairy tales and intermittent power, with no outsourced anything (including energy, food, raw materials, or finished goods – unless outsourced from another town under the same restriction) It works fine for the Amish, after all…

            20

      • #
        Lance

        Simon, as the grid becomes more distributed among smaller producers, the transmission lines to interconnect them become more expensive than the power generated. If by diverse, you mean solar and wind, the grid reliability suffers because it has been destabilized by intermittent generators. What is the dispatchable unit size of your distributed generation? Are the diverse generators paying for their own transmission lines and substation and maintenance?

        Really, consider taking a course in grid scale power system design. You’ll soon see why an economical grid is only feasible with a minimum number of dispatchable generators and a well planned transmission and distribution system. It isn’t supposed to carry bit players who cannot bid into the load and cannot provide guaranteed delivery as contracted.

        641

        • #
          MP

          But Diversity is our strength.

          51

          • #
            max

            The ‘Diversity’ Fraud
            By Thomas Sowell

            we can be so easily fooled by … using slippery words like “diversity.”

            But what justifies diversity? Nothing but unsupported assertions, repeated endlessly, piously and loudly.

            Today, as in the past, diversity is essentially a fancy word for group quotas. It is one of a number of wholly subjective criteria — such as “leadership” — used to admit students to colleges and universities according to their group membership, rather than according to their individual qualifications.

            210

      • #
        Pauly

        Simon, the grid is not the problem. It’s the lack of capacity management in electricity supply. This was highlighted in the near failure of the Texas grid during February 2020. The regulator, ERCOT, had spent several decades creating an “energy” grid to support the intermittent supply of electricity from renewable sources. The exact same process has taken place with AEMO and the NEM.

        “Diverse” suppliers don’t help capacity if they are lack dispatchable capacity when demand is high. Of course the other problem Australian suppliers have is that they have not switched more coal fired generators to natural gas. Coal fired generation cannot ramp up or down rapidly, so when renewables unexpectedly fail to produce power, they can’t magically “be there” to pick up the loss.

        It is a structural problem with the AEMO, which has persistently favoured solutions that only benefit renewables.

        342

        • #
          Pauly

          The following article, by an electrical engineer, highlights the difference between a grid focused on “energy” planning, versus a grid focused on “capacity” planning:
          https://judithcurry.com/2021/02/18/assigning-blame-for-the-blackouts-in-texas/

          140

        • #
          b.nice

          Brown coal particularly can’t ramp much at all.

          More modern black coal can ramp to some extent, but it stresses their operation infrastructure and causes maintenance issues.

          81

        • #
          b.nice

          “Of course the other problem Australian suppliers have is that they have not switched more coal fired generators to natural gas.”

          No, the real problem is that they have not match coal-fired build with increasing demand.. the very opposite has happened.

          Gas should be an “add-on”, not a replacement.

          182

          • #
            Pauly

            I’m not sure what land of make-believe you live in, but there has been no significant “increasing demand” in Australia. The issue, having privatised Australia’s electricity grid over 10 years ago, is that existing commercial suppliers have had no reason to increase fossil fuel capacity at all. It’s pretty hard to compete when one sector of the industry is heavily subsidised (ie renewables) and the rest is not.

            The consequence has been that no new fossil fuel generators have been commissioned in Australia since 2010. Renewable generation has increased to about 30% of total generation capacity, and governments have been driving the early closure of their coal-fired infrastructure.

            But when the sun stops shining, and the wind is not blowing, it’s too late to complain that it is the fault of far more reliable coal fired generators for the lack of dispatchable capacity. If the market places no value in dispatchable capacity, don’t be surprised at these “unintended consequences”, all of which have been predicted.

            221

            • #
              b.nice

              “but there has been no significant “increasing demand” in Australia”

              LOL… Of course not ! 😉

              Sorry, but its more than doubled since the 1970s

              https://www.energy.gov.au/sites/default/files/image017_3.png

              64

              • #
                Pauly

                Not sure why you think energy statistics from 50 years ago are relevant. What I said was energy demand has not increased since 2010. Here is a far more relevant chart:
                https://www.aer.gov.au/wholesale-markets/wholesale-statistics/annual-electricity-consumption-nem

                Reality doesn’t seem to match your rhetoric.

                61

              • #
                b.nice

                When was the last major power station built in NSW?

                Sorry, but they have not built to keep up with demand.

                period. !.

                42

              • #
                b.nice

                Having shut down some 2.5MW of capacity between 2010 and 2020, (Munmorah, Wallerawang, with more to go), they are actually going backwards.

                81

              • #
                b.nice

                “Reality doesn’t seem to match your rhetoric.”

                Basic facts are difficult for some people, Pauly, but do at least try.

                More than doubled since the 1970s.. continued growth up until 2010.. with basically no new coal fired supply.

                Since 2010 they have actually closed 2.5MW of coal capacity in NSW, while demand leveled of..

                If you really think that is “keeping up with demand” then I can’t help you.

                52

              • #
                Pauly

                At least one of us can’t read basic charts.

                Renewables have dramatically increased since the Rudd government’s 2009 decision to shift the RET from 2% to 20%. In the years since, $6billion worth of annual subsidies have gone to renewables. Their generation has dramatically increased, to now 30% of total electricity generation. Yet electricity demand since 2010 has decreased about 10%.

                Those are the facts. Your argument is not based on facts.

                11

              • #
                b.nice

                Coal electricity supply is not keeping up with demand, and hasn’t for a long time.

                Eventually the system will collapse because of this.

                Sorry you can’t read basic graphs showing more than doubling of electricity usage since 1970.

                I can’t help you with your basic comprehension issues.

                31

              • #
                b.nice

                “now 30% of total electricity generation.”

                But quite regularly close to ZERO %..

                … and because coal has not kept up, we are left with gas peakers to cover the huge gap between reliable coal and demand.

                Sunny day, a slight breeze.. Coal in NSW still covering 69% of production

                40

              • #
                b.nice

                Come on Pauly, When there is no Solar and no wind at 6pm, to meet the demand peak that is there every day of the week..

                Where does the electricity come from..

                Now take coal out of that mix, and answer the same question.

                30

              • #
                Dennis

                Meanwhile, sitting in a filing cabinet in a Brisbane Queensland Government Office sits proposals from the Morrison Coalition Federal Government …

                * One gas fired generator for a location in SE QLD.

                * One HELE coal fired power station for a location in NTH QLD.

                The coal fired project has the offer of the Federal Government underwriting the finance.

                40

              • #
                b.nice

                Dennis, NSW is the state that is most often in shortfall. Very often taking power from both Qld and Vic.

                What do you think will happen when Liddell closes !

                40

          • #
            b.nice

            “they have not matched coal-fired build with increasing demand.. “

            This is an absolutely provable statement.

            Even your own comments admit to this fact.

            They haven’t build new coal-fired supply for the Sydney region since the 1980’s while demand increased until 2010

            They closed 2.5WH of capacity since 2010 when demand leveled off.

            What can’t you understand ??

            60

            • #
              Pauly

              You seem purposefully intent on spreading falsehoods.

              The AEMO does not have to match “coal-fired build with increasing demand” if demand is not increasing, which it hasn’t since 2010:
              https://www.aer.gov.au/wholesale-markets/wholesale-statistics/annual-electricity-consumption-nem

              You’ve finally accepted that NEM demand has not increased since 2010. But you are still struggling with the fact that NEM demand has actually decreased by nearly 10% since 2010. Is that because this fact doesn’t suit your world view?

              As for Sydney’s electricity generation, the last NSW generator, Mt Piper, was commissioned just outside of Lithgow in 1993, and has a scheduled closure date of 2040:
              https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_coal-fired_power_stations_in_Australia

              Do you have any statistics showing that there has been a generation capacity shortfall for NSW or Sydney? Or is this something you dreamed up?

              The AEMO’s statistics clearly shows that generation capacity has consistently exceeded NEM demand for decades:
              https://www.aer.gov.au/wholesale-markets/wholesale-statistics/annual-generation-capacity-and-peak-demand-nem

              So your argument is provably false.

              What the AEMO fails to provide is a breakdown of generation capacity by source type, and a discussion of capacity factors. The graph at the previous link creates a false sense of security that the NEM’s generation capacity after 2010 is being maintained. However, because of renewables’ low capacity factor and lack of dispatchable capacity, the actual gap between generation capacity and NEM demand has shrunk considerably.

              Of course, renewables also adversely impact the capacity factor of coal and gas fired generators, as the following document clearly shows:
              https://ieefa.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/Australias-Gasfired-Recovery-Under-Scrutiny_June-2021.pdf

              Coal fired generation capacity factor in Australia has declined from around 80% to about 65% over the last decade. That’s actually an indication of reduction in utilisation of coal fired generators, entirely contrary to the argument that you are trying to make. And that reduction in coal-fired generation capacity factor has incorporated the closure of coal fired generators in South Australia in 2016, and Hazelwood in Victoria in 2017.

              Perhaps you can provide some actual data to back up your opinion?

              11

              • #
                b.nice

                Poor Pauly.. basic logic escapes you.

                ““coal-fired build with increasing demand” if demand is not increasing,”

                So they got rid of some coal instead. same effect.. thanks for playing.

                Then you ramble on about total capacity, with gas included… off topic.

                Then you are unable to accept that demand more than doubled from 1970 to 2010.. a fact you seem to want to ignore

                And demand was increasing until 2010, and they didn’t build to meet that increasing demand.

                —–

                COAL FIRED power used to be able to meet peak demand with plenty to spare…

                So, a simple yes or no question. Can you answer???

                Does enough COAL FIRED electricity now exist to meet peak demand with plenty to spare. ?

                if Yes.. then we wouldn’t see these massive price spikes as gas peakers and other expensive sources come on line

                or

                NO, and prove me correct.

                51

              • #
                Dennis

                To put that in perspective research how many high usage of electricity customers have closed down over the past decade and earlier, from memory two aluminium smelters and one cement works, four oil refineries and many other manufacturing industry.

                The point being that the transition to renewable energy has damaged the economy.

                90

              • #
                Kalm Keith

                Here’s some data : $30,000 pa.

                That’s about the cost of electricity for a medium sized office in Australia and it hurts.

                It hurts so much that most businesses have been forced to move their offices offshore where electricity is cheaper. Admittedly labour is also cheaper in the Philippines and India, but the main push is from ridiculous electricity sabotage.

                You know what you can do with your connector.

                70

              • #
                Ronin

                Pauly, are you confusing generation capacity with renewables nameplate capacity, you know they are vastly different.

                70

            • #
              Dennis

              And now multi-billionaire Mike Cannon-Brookes is positioning himself to attempt to influence the rapid closure of the remaining coal fired power stations, he favours renewable energy wind and solar installations of course, but I am not aware of him being qualified to understand the engineering problems and including the unreliable and unstable grid problems.

              130

      • #
        b.nice

        As simple example for your simple mind.

        Suppose you have 10 truck depots around the state, all working together and relying on each other.

        Then one depots decides it will go “woke” and only work when the weather is nice and sunny and temperature is between 20 and 25C..

        That makes them unreliable, but also means that the other depots have to cover for them, throwing them out of their balance of work.

        The whole distribution system become more inherently unreliable than just that one “woke” depot.

        Then another depot becomes “woke” because it is being overloaded by the first “woke” depot, and in no time at all the whole distributed system become total chaos and collapses in a heap.

        That is exactly what grid wind and solar do. They cause chaos, that has to eventually lead to ultimate collapse.

        331

        • #
          Ian

          “That makes them unreliable, but also means that the other depots have to cover for them, throwing them out of their balance of work.

          The whole distribution system become more inherently unreliable than just that one “woke” depot.”

          Times are changing b.nice

          Ever heard of Michael Cannon-Brookes? Ever heard of AGL?

          Michael Cannnon-Brookes + AGL = reality

          There’s a lot going on in the boardrooms of which you seem unaware. Essentially Cannon-Brookes is trying to get AGL, a major player in Australia’s power supply, out of coal. If he succeeds it will significantly alter the playing field.

          AGL has ignored most energy experts about the realities of new technologies and that it was way too invested in the ‘coal will dominate for decades’ story line pushed by most industry incumbents, the federal Coalition government and much of the mainstream media. Greenpeace Australia Pacific senior campaigner Glenn Walker said.

          “At a time when AGL should be taking its role in Australia’s energy transition seriously, and planning for a safe transition away from coal by 2030, the company has instead chosen to try to hide its contribution to the climate crisis by demerging.”

          AGL will aim to implement the demerger in the first half of 2022 after receiving approval from shareholders. AGL’s interim CEO, Graeme Hunt, said the demerger would help retain investment value for its shareholders.

          Essentially Cannon-Brookes wants to stop the demerger as by doing so it will eventually force AGL out of coal

          117

          • #
            b.nice

            Only the most stupid people think the grid can exist on wind and solar.

            If they want the NEM grid to collapse.. sure .. get rid of coal. Way to go !

            150

          • #
            b.nice

            “If he succeeds it will significantly alter the playing field. “

            Maybe.. to a playing field that is full of potholes. and no, it is not reality to get rid of coal.

            100

          • #
            b.nice

            “Greenpeace Australia Pacific senior campaigner Glenn Walker “

            LOL… another of your “reliable” sources… So funny !!

            81

          • #
            b.nice

            Come on Ian, When there is no solar (every day for 6 months of the year) and no wind at 6pm (which happens quite regularly), to meet the demand peak that is there every day of the week..

            Where does the electricity come from..

            Now take coal out of that mix, and answer the same question.

            Maybe ask Greenpeace, I’m sure you will think their answer is rational. 😉

            120

          • #
            Ronin

            Cannon Brookes is a tech geek not an electrical systems engineer, what he sees is $$$$$$$ rolling in from unreliables if only reliable but old coallies can be snuffed out.

            80

        • #
          Dennis

          Economic vandalism.

          But “developing nations” have benefited from the decline in manufacturing here as many businesses have moved, to China for example.

          50

      • #
        YallaYPoora Kid

        Simon, I can only say you have no idea about grid stability and reliability.

        Small intermittent generation ONLY disturbs the grid and does NOT stabilise it. In order for solar and wind to operate in the grid huge investments in compensation equipment is necessary not to cause shutdown of the system due to voltage and frequency fluctuations caused by this generation. The necessary compensation equipment introduces more losses into the grid while also operating to stabilise it.
        Diversity using a mix of generation via reliable technologies such as gas, hydro, coal and nuclear is of course ideal and responsible both for the grid performance and the consumer price for industry and domestic purposes.

        220

        • #
          b.nice

          “Simon, I can only say you have no idea”..

          170

        • #
          MP

          Simon, I can only say you have no idea about grid stability and reliability.

          Small intermittent generation ONLY disturbs the grid and does NOT stabilise it. In order for solar and wind to operate in the grid huge investments in compensation equipment is necessary not to cause shutdown of the system due to voltage and frequency fluctuations caused by this generation. The necessary compensation equipment introduces more losses into the grid while also operating to stabilise it.
          Diversity using a mix of generation via reliable technologies such as gas, hydro, coal and nuclear is of course ideal and responsible both for the grid performance and the consumer price for industry and domestic purposes.

          Yep that looks better.

          111

      • #
        Jonesy

        Diverse????? The only diverse in generation is ON or OFF!

        150

      • #
        Ronin

        Simon, there’s nothing wrong with ‘diverse’ generation , so long as the small and unreliable players don’t assume control of things, as things are heading towards now.
        A bit of hydro, solar and wind can save some coal or gas but don’t rely on it, it’s not trustworthy.

        100

        • #
          b.nice

          Wind and solar, even in small amounts, alter the productivity and operation of coal fired electricity.

          Therefore they have a negative effect on grid stability.

          110

      • #
        Simon

        We all agree that coal-fired is not genuinely dispatchable. You can’t blame that on renewables. It’s yet another argument for retiring coal plants in favour of lower emission and cheaper sources of electricity. Dispatchability can be covered by gas, hydro, any maybe one day by biomass, hydrogen, and large scale battery storage.

        126

        • #
          b.nice

          “We all agree that coal-fired is not genuinely dispatchable”

          Now you are talking complete balderdash, even more so that usual. !!

          “and large scale battery storage.”

          And living in loony cloud-cuckoo land !

          130

          • #

            Simon says: “We all agree that coal-fired is not genuinely dispatchable. “

            Jo says: ” We all agree that collectivists need to destroy the meaning of words so no one can discuss how stupid their ideas are.”

            The word dispatchable has no meaning at all if Coal plants are not dispatchable. When is 99.9% of the time = 30% of the time? When a parasite wants some money.

            250

            • #
              Simon

              A dispatchable source of electricity refers to an electrical power system, such as a power plant, that can be turned on or off; in other words they can adjust their power output supplied to the electrical grid on demand. The commenters above complain that renewables are ruining the grid because coal-fired plant can’t be quickly turned on or off.

              019

              • #
                b.nice

                No, it refers to being able to provide power as required.

                If you have enough coal fired power, you can always do that.

                Doesn’t matter how much wind and solar you have.. you can never do that.

                You really do have a totally twisted comprehension about basically everything. !

                150

              • #
                b.nice

                “coal-fired plant can’t be quickly turned on or off”

                Question is.. why should they have to!

                Demand changes slowly, black coal can follow that if you have enough capacity. (which we no longer do have)

                It is the huge swing from erratic unreliables that cause the problems, not just for the big reliable suppliers, but for the whole NEM grid.

                90

              • #
                RobK

                Simon,
                You see on the graph; the wavy nature of the renewables output. It is supply fluctuations, not demand fluctuations.The real fluctuations are more pronounced since the graph is plotted on half hour intervals. The reality is that renewables are akin to a child flicking 0-100% of the load on the grid on and off, on and off, on and off…at random. It’s an expensive nightmare to contend with.
                If your answer is hydrogen electrolysis, then be prepared to over build that plant too as it will need to mop up sporadic maximum supply. Same goes for batteries. RE is a world where infrastructure has to be sized for occasional utility. It is not cost effective except for niche situations.

                100

              • #
                Kalm Keith

                Renewables, as produced are direct current, d.c. which is only useful in electric chairs.

                To be used in homes, businesses and industry that d.c. must first be rectified to 240 volts at 50 hertz.

                Please tell us how you are going to do that?

                Normal, functional coal fired generators produce alternating current, a.c. which can be fed straight to the user, unlike the didgy dodgy renewerables.

                Go Simon, show us how to get rectified.

                70

              • #
                Lance

                No, Simon. A dispatchable generator can be dispatched to the grid on scheduled/contracted, or emergency requirements. It is a known capacity, available upon command. Except in the case of OCGT and possibly Hydro, they are not “switched on/off”, rather they are planned dispatch of generation based on day-ahead commitments for firm contractual delivery. Coal/Gas generation was never meant to be “turned on/off”, as they were part of an integrated, planned, system of generation, not a backstop for unreliable parasites upon the grid.

                See: The Dispatch of Power Plants by an Electric Utility, https://www.e-education.psu.edu/ebf483/node/534

                Renewables add to the chaos on the grid by randomly providing generation based on the whims of wind speed and clouds. Whatever variability existed in the grid is magnified by random injections of MWs that in-turn, force the dispatchable units to react to a neverending stream of surges and sags in power.

                Open cycle gas turbines “can” spin up from cold to hot in 5 minutes to provide emergency or planned peaking. But their cycle efficiency is only 30% and maintenance is expensive. The labour costs continue 24/7 whether they are running or not, so it is certainly premium priced power.

                Do become familiar with the concept of Slack Bus, or Swing Bus. When the reactive load exceeds normal control limits, Some generator, Somewhere close to the reactive load deficit/excess, must become the “Designated Swing Unit” to provide or absorb reactive power, otherwise the grid goes into cascading voltage collapse. 20-30 MVARs may be required in seconds to stabilize the transmission voltages. Wind/Solar cannot do it. Somebody has to do it or the grid collapses. It has to be dispatchable or very bad things happen. You used to get that for free from the coal and gas plants. Now you pay dearly for it.

                60

              • #
                Broadie

                Love to see you restart a grid after a wide scale outage with intermittent supplies forming the large proportion of your supply side.

                Are you suggesting timed restarts on each load?

                As South Australia how to deal with that small problem.

                10

        • #
          b.nice

          “lower emission and cheaper “

          1. Why would anyone with a scientifically rational mind want to reduce CO2 emissions?
          It is totally beneficial to the existence of life on the planet. There is not down side.

          2. Coal is by far the cheapest, most reliable method of supplying reliable electricity.

          So you whole comment is just nonsense based on even more nonsense.

          120

        • #
          Antoine D'Arche

          Biomass. Now we know you aren’t a serious player

          90

      • #
        yarpos

        and this is proven where exactly? its a nice fantasy theory that required pixie dust to be beleieved.

        taking that nonsense to its extreme, sure its more reliable if everyone is off grid. Is it going to happen? NO

        50

      • #
        Ronin

        “What you are seeing are price signals that there is insufficient capacity. ”

        There will never be enough capacity while there is dependence on unreliables, they just don’t perform the way a modern grid needs to perform, just contributing a bit of power here and there when the weather conditions are right is no way to run a 21st century energy system.
        There will be times when most of the SE of Australia is in a high pressure system and the winds are nowhere to be seen and sooner or later the sun has to set, that is when the plebs will be looking for a long rope and a tree, or a bucket of tar and a bag of feathers.

        60

      • #
        b.nice

        “price signals that there is insufficient capacity.”

        Yes, there is insufficient reliable coal-fired power left to meet peak demand.

        Thanks for pointing that out. That is what I have been saying all along.

        And when wind and solar are producing nothing, which happens regularly, of course their are supply issues.

        60

      • #
        yarpos

        Funny isnt it that we even have to have a discussion about grid reliability. For many decades the grid was as reliable and available as you could wish for. Now reliability is a topic all of a sudden. I wonder what destabilized that which worked for more than half a century?

        30

  • #
    David Maddison

    This is very good news indeed.

    There is no longer any point in fighting this.

    Very few people understand or care and the Left have achieved exactly what they want.

    The only way for the Sheeple to wake up -maybe- is full-scale grid collapse with serious economic and other damage.

    The outcome will then be either:

    1) a demand to ditch the unreliables and replace it with proper coal, gas or -gasp- nuclear generation

    OR

    2) An alternative disturbing outcome might be that the spinmasters will say it’s because we don’t have ENOUGH unreliables and we need more. AT THAT POINT AUSTRALIA IS DOOMED.

    590

    • #
      Mark Allinson

      “AT THAT POINT AUSTRALIA IS DOOMED.”

      And if the people accept that situation they will well deserve their doom.

      330

      • #
        PeterS

        Up to now the people have accepted that situation and as such deserve it. It’s now up to the people to change things at the next election. If they don’t bother then nothing changes.

        180

        • #
          David Maddison

          Yes, should we feel sorry for our fellow Australians when they are now suffering the misery they wanted? Are they even worth fighting for any more?

          Ignorance is a choice and a vast majority chose to be ignorant.

          130

          • #
            PeterS

            Those who are worth fighting for are those who are simple minded and/or ignorant not by their own fault. They could change their views once they are properly informed. The ones not worth fighting for are those who know the facts and deliberately tell lies to cover them up, or are so stubborn they will never admit they got it wrong no matter how much evidence is brought to them. Many politicians in both major parties are in that group. They ought to be sacked if we ever had a half decent leader.

            60

        • #
          yarpos

          Unless the grid collapses before election day the average person will be as oblivious to all this as they always have a been, and will vote (roughly) as they always have done.

          I’m sure the good folk of SA were basking in the glow of being green energy leaders right up to the moment the lights went out, and half a billion in gas, diesel and a battery (to distract from the former) was spent. I mean wow! Elon even came out to see exactly who these schmucks were.

          100

    • #
      max

      David Maddison
      May 4, 2022 at 6:27 am
      the Left have achieved exactly what they want.

      From its inception Australia is Fabian socialist laboratory.

      it goes to question who is your lord?
      is man political animal or a spiritual being ?

      30

    • #
      Antoine D'Arche

      100%. NOTHING can stop what’s coming, and isn’t good. People simply haven’t been inconvenienced enough. Says a lot about the intellect of the average Australian. Bring on the train wreck. I’ve got popcorn stashed.

      20

    • #
      Ronin

      “This is very good news indeed.”

      I agree David, the only way this is going to get through the thick skulls of the woke and the politicos is for a major blackout with rolling power sharing to highlight the folly of weather dependent power in the 21st century with our digital economy, connected systems and electric everything.
      It has to happen to get their undivided attention.

      60

      • #
        Tel

        The phrase you are looking for is that things are about to get real.

        I once tried to put together a theory of disaster … along the lines that probability of failure is not modified by the number of safeguards you put in place … people will compensate knowing there are more safeguards and hence take larger risks. It’s more visible in the financial industries but also turns up in engineering … if you try to make a system idiot proof then nature can always deliver a bigger idiot.

        When people have not personally felt the collapse of the electrical grid on a regular basis they don’t actually believe it’s possible and therefore do not take this possibility into account.

        Sadly we face the same problem with the possibility of nuclear war … the dipsticks in Washington only understand how to tell lies, and how to escallate. Russia had the difficult task of trying to make them understand that global disaster is an option on the table but it’s challenging to play a game of Chicken with an opponent who is genuinely nuts.

        My conclusion is that regular small failures in a system are healthy, providing they pull someone out of bed at night and require human intervention. This helps focus the mind on the problem. Having extremely rare but catestrophic failure is the worst design.

        60

  • #
    Slithers

    Spin and yet more spin!

    10

  • #
    Erasmus

    We have witnessed tyrannical restrictions on our liberties enforced brutally by police, and we have watched for years the slide towards the failure of the power system.
    We are governed by idiots and wreckers.

    490

    • #
      David Maddison

      We are governed by idiots and wreckers.

      More or less true, there is no shortage of useful / useless idiots but leading it all at the top are some very evil people who know exactly what they are doing.

      360

    • #
      b.nice

      The Lab/green have always been intent of stalling progress and development, basically destroying Australian industry, prosperity and way of life.

      The real problem is that since Turnbull, the Liberals have gone down exactly the same path.

      They no longer care what is best for Australia, but kow-tow to every virtue-seeking leftist whim, no matter how idiotic (ie wind and solar, EV’s, climate nonsense anti-CO2 agendas etc etc)

      The only people looking towards a stronger Australia are a couple of minor conservative parties.

      360

      • #
        Doc

        The left extremes didn’t stop their takeovers just at our institutions. They also worked their way into the conservative political parties. Also, they are forcing the Labor Party away from the centre by taking enough of its leftist extremists to ensure Labor has difficulty governing in its own right. Those leftists ‘progressives’ are forcing the Liberals to be left of centre on many policies as well. Much of these movements seem funded now by a few billionaire oligarchs Australia has generated, all seemingly interested in doubling their fortunes in the renewable energy debacle which guarantees profits from government but paid for by the poorest members of the Australian community.

        The devastating reality is that our modern politicians don’t see just how unethical the system and themselves have become. In the ’70’s, labor politicians in particular would have gone to political war to defend the poor. Now, having poor people unable to warm themselves or eat due to choices about food versus energy, doesn’t matter a damn! This is the message that needs to sink into a few of their self interested brains. It’s also the message that needs to do just that if we are ever to get out of this AGW sh.. and put to voters what is the cost in lives they are going to cause unless they wake up to where the end of the adequate energy supply road we are approaching is taking us.

        60

    • #
      PeterS

      The solution is simple but not easy. People need to wake up and stop voting for such politicians. In effect, the root cause of our woes are “we the people”. People need to look in the mirror. Blaming just the politicians when we the people have the right to choose who are elected into office has become such a lame excuse. Yes, the MSM have a lot to answer for, but people also have the right to think for themselves and do their own research (at least for now). Clearly too many don’t want to exercise that right to think and take the extra effort to do their own research. Instead they choose the lazy approach and fill in the ballot papers like some lotto game hoping to win the big prize. Totally stupid approach for electing politicians and subsequently a government. That’s why the saying we get the government we deserve rings so true.

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      • #
        max

        it would be nice to know which words are immoderate in my post. thanks

        20

      • #
        max

        Democracy’s Road to Tyranny by Erik von Kuehnelt-Leddihn

        …the parliamentary scene would produce two main types of parties: the Santa Claus parties, predominantly on the Left, and the Tighten-Your-Belt parties, more or less on the Right. The Santa Claus parties, with presents for the many, normally take from some people to give to others: they operate with largesses, to use the term of John Adams.

        As a result, these parties normally win elections, and politicians who use their slogans are effective vote-getters.
        The voting masses, who frequently favor the Santa parties,

        30

        • #
          max

          the Santa Claus parties are rarely utterly defeated, but they sometimes defeat themselves by featuring hopeless candidates or causing political turmoil or economic disaster.

          40

    • #
      Ronin

      “We are governed by idiots and wreckers.”

      Might we ask…. who put them there.

      60

    • #
      max

      Erasmus
      May 4, 2022 at 6:36 am
      We are governed by idiots and wreckers.

      it comes naturally with universal suffrage and democracy.

      H.L. Mencken:
      “As democracy is perfected, the office of president represents, more and more closely, the inner soul of the people. On some great and glorious day the plain folks of the land will reach their heart’s desire at last and the White House will be adorned by a downright moron.”

      60

      • #
        Richard C (NZ)

        >”…the White House will be adorned by a downright moron.”

        I count 2 right now.

        Their “crisis manager”/spinmeister Psaki is performing admirably so she doesn’t count.

        40

    • #
      Tel

      We are governed by idiots and wreckers.

      Yet they somehow always manage to land on their feet with pockets freshly stuffed … and doesn’t that make you wonder who really is the idiot?

      40

  • #
    Peter Fitzroy

    The wind component for NSW seems to be artificially constrained, when compared to the BOM wind data for the same period, using Canberra and Tamworth stations.

    One explanation is that traditional power sources like coal and gas had taken the lion’s share, and this explanation is supported by the AEMO data for that day.

    Also at time of writing SA is the cheapest wholesaler, exporting a lot of wind generation via its interconnectors

    /this might change at the time of posting given the normal lag for my posts

    430

    • #
      b.nice

      “exporting a lot of wind generation via its interconnectors “

      SA is 46% gas.. and they are exporting around 200MW to Victoria’s demand of 5500 MW.. ie basically nothing !

      ..

      Yes, Coal and gas always have to carry the lion’s share…. that is why getting rid of coal and gas is so moronically stupid.

      380

    • #
      David Maddison

      The wind component for NSW seems to be artificially constrained,

      [..]

      One explanation is that traditional power sources like coal and gas had taken the lion’s share,

      I don’t know if that’s possible. My understanding is that if unreliables are being generated, BY LAW, they must be first purchased in preference to the reliable generation.

      250

      • #
        b.nice

        Wind generation is always constrained.. by the weather.. ie whether there are winds or not.

        Its not “artifical” its actual.

        260

      • #
        Peter Fitzroy

        The dip in wind is at the same time coal and gas ramp up. The contribution from wind then increases in line with the evening demand peak, after that initial trough. If you delve just a little deeper on the website, you will find that coal and gas have long term contracts to supply for that time period, irrespective of demand. It would seem that wind, and hydro are mainly following demand (ie on the spot market), which is where snowy hydro used to reign supreme.

        That is because coal and gas generators can not ramp up and down as easily or as quickly as wind or hydro.

        012

        • #

          So Peter, let’s say we need the wind to start at 5.35 tonight, how quickly can it ramp up?

          200

          • #
            Peter Fitzroy

            how much?
            I see wind as a peaking supply, not baseload, coal is best for that

            05

            • #
              b.nice

              Wind is never a “peaking” supply. It cannot “ramp-up” except by pure luck.

              It is random and erratic and cannot be called upon when needed, ever.

              Seems you don’t even know what a “peaking” supply means. !

              90

            • #
              b.nice

              For your education.. should you decide to want to actually learn something.

              A “peaker” is a supply that you can bring on line, ON CALL, to meet peaks in demand.

              Wind and solar can never meet that definition.

              Even unicorns cannot summon up wind “by magic”.. except from their rear end.

              80

        • #
          b.nice

          And as we all know, wind and solar can never have contracts to supply “at a specific time”.

          That is exactly the problem that W & S zealots refuse to comprehend.

          120

          • #
            yarpos

            the ability to suspend reality is a vital element in “RE” fanboyism

            the fantasy world is more real to them than the actual world. I am sure many will be genuinely surprised when the wheels fall off.

            the best thing now is that they are going hard and actually want to decommission coal and gas. This will expedite the inevitable instead of endless band aids and finger pointing when coal and gas cant cover their derrieres.

            80

        • #
          b.nice

          “It would seem that wind, and hydro are mainly following demand “

          LOL.. that would have to be one of the most idiotic statements I have ever seen.. even from you, Peter.

          Wind can never “follow” demand…. you can’t just wish it up out of thin air !

          Yes, hydro can be turned on as required.. so long as there is water.

          110

    • #
      MP

      this might change at the time of posting given the normal lag for my posts

      Therein lies the problem.

      40

  • #

    If we actually had a media working for people and profit, this news would not be found only on blogs and forums it would be headline news everywhere. Because that seems to be all the news people pay attention to.

    180

    • #
      Philip

      …and here lies the heart of the problem. This is precisely what the ABC should be doing. And how far are we from that ?

      50

  • #
    PeterS

    Interesting that more people are coming to the same conclusion as I had come to many moons ago. Yes, we are doomed but I also still believe we an change things for the better, if we CHOOSE to do so. The only real way to do so is vote for the right sort of politicians in your own area, and keep doing do. Of course that would require people to have a keen interest in political affairs and issues. Most people don’t and that’s the real problem. So, we end up getting is the usual crap politicians who all they know to do well is tell a lot of lies.

    141

    • #

      And get serious. Start talking to people who have no idea. Offer to help the few good pollies out there. WRite letters to radio stations, call in, phone up. Speak up. Do letter box drops. Donate to the good guys if you can. The Greens win by door knocking. Most conservatives couldn’t imagine doing that but ultimately if we all spent a few hours talking to neighbors a lot more Australians would “get it”.

      100

      • #
        PeterS

        Have done all that over the years. I’ve said before I have even sent emails to the Greens explaining the virtues of going nuclear if they were truly serious about reducing emissions. They responded by saying they will never do that (obviously) and gave the usual reason that it’s too expensive in spite of the fact they feel it’s urgent and say in the same breath that renewables are cheaper by far, which of course both statements are nonsenses especially when taking into account battery storage required (financial and environmental cost) to provide anything like the reliable supply afforded with coal or nuclear. More recently I asked my local MP when will ivermectin be taken of the banned list for COVID-19. No reply. As for talking to neighbours, I go one step further. I try to bring up the important topics with anyone I meet where appropriate. Some are interested and we discuss, some get angry (on one occasion he looked like he was about to punch me but his friend grabbed hold of him and pull him away) but most just shut their minds and try to change the topic. I suspect it hurts the brain to think over such topics let alone discuss.

        40

  • #
    David Maddison

    $14,000 per MWh.

    Putting that into domestic terms that the Sheeple might understand, that’s $14 per kWh compared to the already outrageous approx. 30c per kWh that the Sheeple now pay in Australia (up from among the world’s cheapest electricity before unreliables were forced on us).

    220

  • #
    b.nice

    The big point here is not so much the interconnects, it that there was very little spare capacity anywhere in the NEM.

    Much as SA wind is sometimes touted to be useful, it is actually only a very small percentage of the whole of NEM demand, even on the rare occasions when operating effectively…

    .. and of course, when SA wind is only partial there, its basically a non-supply, with SA relying heavily on expensive gas and diesel, and hoping Victoria has spare capacity.

    121

    • #
      Lance

      Technically, there was little spare “dispatchable” capacity. If it cannot be dispatched, it is of no benefit and has no value.

      All the “old” coal plants that were shut down cannot now be dispatched. Intermittent power is, by definition, non-dispatchable.

      AU has done this to themselves. It is sad, but that’s what happened.

      231

      • #
        David Maddison

        All the “old” coal plants that were shut down cannot now be dispatched.

        And they were deliberately destroyed immediately upon closure, rather than being mothballed.

        Few countries are currently as self-destructive as Australia, apart from Biden’s America.

        190

        • #
          Greg in NZ

          … and Jacindarella’s New Zealand – RIP.

          60

          • #
            Richard C (NZ)

            Careful Greg, you’ll be “trespassed”.

            [Kiwi in-joke given current goings on]

            20

            • #
              sophocles

              He’ll be fine: you frame it and hang it on attach it to the wall. When you’re asked to return it, well, the requestee has to pay for it … wall included for postage and replacement.

              10

  • #
    Saighdear

    Totally stupid: in plain everyday language, 1 MegaWatt translates to 1341hp ( forget about efficiencies this now ) so Wholesale is selling for $10.44 per hp. Now currently in UK, the old red diesel is costing around £1.10 per LITRE v White DERV ( but it’s not going on the road – such hypocrisy ) costing us OVER £1.75 per LITRE. Now I know that my 100hp engine generator on full load can burn 4-5 galls per hour = at least 20 litres. So this would cost me £22 to £35 per hour per 100 hp ( 75kW) – works out at 35p per hp + infrastructure costs ( £0.35 ), Where do these daft idiots ( OH, I forgot they are the 97% again ) get these HUGE figures from ?
    Burn diesel , make a little CO2 and feed the planet. but oh dear those hegemonic amongst us …. to save the planet.

    O/T but in our Scottish news tonight – SENDING a truck load of PETFOOD to Ukraine. more than taakes the biscuit – why not save the fuel and buy ( ie give trade to local suppliers in SE Europe) foodstuff to be delivered locally down there. ( Road miles ? )

    140

    • #
      yarpos

      would be funny if it was imported petfood in the first place, OMG the CO2 horror

      still they say shipping wood pellets to burn in the UK was green somehow , so maybe its OK

      30

      • #
        Saighdear

        Indeed – thnx, and I forgot to add that point: Dog chews in UK come from ……. W8 4 it …… C H I N A ! – I couldn’t believe it … and a bone from local butcher costs you an arm and a leg ( ! ? ! )

        20

  • #
    Neville

    Thanks for this post Jo and the link to Paul McArdle and I’ll have to try and keep up with this so obvious BS and fr-ud and PONZI scheme.
    BTW the King Island generation seems to be up to the usual lousy UNRELIABLE delivery.
    And if this tiny system can’t deliver useful energy without Diesel generation then Australia hasn’t got any hope for our future and businesses and jobs etc must suffer from now on.
    And that stupid battery back up on King I is FLAT most of the time, so more expense and grief to come in future years if we persist with this lunacy.

    https://www.hydro.com.au/clean-energy/hybrid-energy-solutions/success-stories/king-island

    140

    • #
      David Maddison

      Arguably the remote inhabited islands of Bass Strait are among the few places where solar and wind systems might be justified but they don’t even work there.

      That’s why the owner of those systems, Hydro Tasmania, refuses to release the economic figures.

      120

  • #
    Broadie

    But the sun is setting earlier, and solar power is shrinking just as everyone gets home from work to turn on the oven.

    And soon to plug in the Electric vehicle so there is enough charge to go to the Maccas Drive through.

    Most of the population live in the urban fringe.

    Those that work return to a sealed home that has to be cooled or warmed. Air conditioning turned on.

    Cooking is generally microwave or stove top, most would not use an oven except in the form of the Air Fryer.

    A growing surge in power usage will be recharging bikes, scooters, devices and not to mention the Electric vehicle.

    In the morning the battery bank for the stand alone power system will probably have an inverter charger that decides to kick in while it waits for the sun to fall on the panels. Irons, hairdryers, bathroom heaters, kettles, toasters etc are all high resistance loads.

    May God help the transmission engineers trying to plan for frequency, voltage and power factors. And may God help the grid when there is damage as there will be a complex mess to sort out as to what is malfunctioning and what is live.

    141

    • #
      Dennis

      I have been in Canberra for a few days and noticed a few EVs but not many of them on the ACT roads.

      Driving back from Bega NSW this morning I sighted three EVs and they were all driving quite slowly and below the highway speed limits, conserving energy no doubt, again indicating that EV is better suited to city and suburban driving conditions, for people who can afford them.

      71

      • #
        Philip

        Yes that is precisely what they are suited to and should be used for. The city and suburban.

        Im not against electric cars at all. I am very against the idea we will ALL drive them.

        70

        • #
          Dennis

          I would happily purchase an EV to replace my diesel 4WD SUV if …

          * The drive away price was equivalent.
          * The EV had the same capabilities including real range.
          * The recharging time was no more than 15 minutes for a 100% charge with no warning to limit to 80% on a regular recharge basis.
          * Recharging points were as conveniently located as refuelling stations.
          * Exothermic reaction inferno conditions were not possible.

          40

    • #
      Saighdear

      Yes … with a b i g Sigh. … so what about tall those fashionable cooking programs ? OVENS Ovens and mistakes ……… HOw to stop the talking and writing and TAKE ACTION agqainst these Plonkers.

      30

  • #
    Robber

    Imagine that you are a coal or gas generator able to run reliably 24×7. You would normally bid say $60/MWhr for 24 hours per day providing reliable base load power. To meet the evening peak demand there are hydro generators and open cycle gas generators able to quickly ramp up supply.
    Your solar competitors only operate 9-5 and bid say $20/MWhr, (and if necessary zero) because they also receive a further $40/MWhr thanks to the rules of the Renewable Energy Target that mandate the share that “renewables” must receive. The result is that intermittent solar (and wind) drastically eat into your revenue. And it is even better for rooftop solar, with feed in tariffs of about $65/MWhr.
    Thus we have the ridiculous “market” situation in Qld yesterday where the spot price at 10.30am was $0.29/MWhr with solar providing 42% of generation, wind 2%, hydro 1%, gas 5%, with coal providing 3,989 MW (51%), with 797 MW exported to NSW.
    Yet at 6pm with solar gone for the night, wind 2%, hydro 6%, gas 25% and coal 4,989 MW (68%) with 195 MW exports, and the spot price $12,969/MWhr.
    If we continue down the path of ever more intermittent “renewables” all imported from China, with reliable coal and generators under pressure to close because of falling revenues (and demand from greenies to “save the planet”), what next?

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      RickWill

      what next?

      People who have the capital will instal solar panels and batteries and make their own. The service charge disappears and it is more economic to generate power from sunlight at home than having it produced on a farm hundreds of miles away and transmitted to your home.

      The grid is already being subsidised from general revenue. ScoMo is paying $600M to seed Snowy 2. Dan has just announced a $250 cost of living for everyone in Victoria. As time goes by, the grid will need to be increasingly supported from general revenue. Thousands of consumers can no longer afford electricity and the one certainty – retail electricity costs in Australia are only going UP.

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        Robert Swan

        People who have the capital will instal solar panels and batteries and make their own.

        And when they go to the supermarket, the power’s off and so are all the perishables.

        Most people rely on a lot of electricity that doesn’t come from their own wall sockets.

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          RickWill

          The large supermarkets have been installing emergency generators for some years now. Both Coles and Woolies have aggressive Net-Zero targets and this may lead to batteries as well as a roof full of solar panels.
          https://www.coles.com.au/about-coles/sustainability/environment/together-to-zero-emissions

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          • #
            Robert Swan

            RickWill,

            You focussed on my first sentence; think more about the second.

            E.g. how about the bread that the supermarket stocks: where does it come from? A bakery. How is the bakery to power its kneading machines, ovens, slicers, packing machines? How is the mill that provides the flour going to be powered? Homes are one thing, but in general all the sunlight that might hit a factory roof would be a small fraction of the power needed for that factory’s activities. Yes, they can install diesel generators (or whatever). What’s that going to do to the price of their product?

            Of course this applies to umpteen of the things you want from your supermarket.

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        • #
          yarpos

          Both Woolies and Aldi assure me they already use “100% renewable energy” if asked how they cant explain.

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  • #
    Neville

    The shocking Bernie Madoff Ponzi scheme required about 9 years extra to finally chase down and solve the puzzle.
    But Harry Markopolas had informed the US SEC of this Ponzi scheme nearly a decade before and yet he was ignored until everything eventually exploded along with the then global financial crisis.
    Of course this monster fra-d was chicken feed compared to the so called EXISTENTIAL THREAT or crisis that the con merchants + stupid elites + MSM + Pollies + journalists etc have foisted on us over the last 30+ years.
    But we seem to ignore the evidence and continue with this massive con trick that is costing the OECD countries TRILLIONs of $ now and into the foreseeable future?
    And all for a guaranteed ZERO return and ZIP change to the temp or climate by 2050 or 2100. Just look up the Wiki graph showing SOARING co2 emissions from China, India and developing countries co2 emissions since 1990. Will they ever wake up?

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harry_Markopolos

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      Neville

      Here’s Harry Markopolis after the eventual exposure of the biggest Ponzi scheme fra-d in history. Again this fra-d involved some thousands of investors, while today’s so called EXISTENTIAL threat and so called climate crisis impacts billions of people around the world and costs TRILLIONs of $ and all for a ZERO return.
      He pestered the US SEC but nobody could be bothered
      to try to understand what this maths genius had discovered. Unbelievable but true.

      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3wUJesUik5A

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    Tim

    It still puzzles me why there is no debate about the the total CO2 emissions of all forms of energy.

    The solar and wind is cheap / free is garbage. Where is the push back solar panels need co2 to be made as do wind. Where is the break even point where the co2 emissions required to make and distribute and install and dispose of them at the end of there useful lifespan as opposed to the co2 they mitigate etc. Wind farms (joke) take massive amounts for steel and concrete, where is there break even. How much wind is required over there lifespan etc. Then there is the disposal, how much can be reused /recycled. Blades cant they have to be buried, concrete bases cant really if the CO2 output is taken into the equations of the dismantling. Id be surprised if 20% can be recycled

    I would be surprised if great than 90 % of a coal fired power station couldnt be recycled

    Which leads me to the question why havent our political leaders asked their massive government departments to do this research and publish it……. If the goal is to minimise CO2 (plant food) emissions then why arent we looking at the total emissions

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      Maptram

      You haven’t mentioned transport. A couple of years ago, I read and article about a “wind farm” to be built in the Snowy Mountains. The blades were shipped into Bega, and transported by truck to the site. Each blade was to be transported individually to the site, and because of the length of the blades, each truck required an escort vehicle in front and behind, plus a police escort. So CO2 from 4 vehicles from the port to the site and return empty, until all blades were delivered.

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        Peter Fitzroy

        And I thought you were going to talk about the transport of coal

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        • #
          b.nice

          You do realise that wind is meant to “reduce” CO2 emissions, don’t you. !

          Please try to think before you post.

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      Ronin

      The steel pole and the copper windings is about all that’s worth recycling.

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    • #
      yarpos

      they think they have perfect solution, their thinking is quite shallow, they would not see the need for a debate and would fear it as you would have to have facts n stuff.

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  • #
    David Maddison

    Of course, the apologists for pretend conservative PM Morrison will claim none of this is his fault because a lot of this relates to state responsibilities which is largely true.

    However, Morrison has shown a complete lack of leadership in all areas, not just energy and is, in fact, a “true believer” in anthropogenic global warming.

    He should have established the facts that anthropogenic CO2 is not a problem, removed us from the Paris Agreement as Trump did for his country and explained to the states that their fanatical commitment to unreliables is destroying Australia.

    Doom and Gloom was predicted when Trump withdrew from the Paris agreement but guess what? Nothing bad happened. Only good. And until the Biden coup d’état America was energy independent, energy prices dropped and America became an energy exporter for the first time in decades.

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      YallaYPoora Kid

      The sad reality is that pollies do not really believe in anything other than what will bring them votes. Ignorant but noisy Green followers and their supporters have gained too much influence so the pollies lean in that direction. Even if the pollies are not fully convinced a bet each way hopes to cover all potential voters. Only a few such as Matt Canavan and Michael Roberts have enough knowledge and commitment to strongly state a position against Green politics.

      Money either directly or indirectly from Government subsidies for the CO2 boondoggle has silenced too many scientists and technical authorities so the pollies have not heard enough of the practical arguments for realistic power generation from the people who can most influence policy.

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      • #

        No. Most of the time the pollies don’t care about votes. Look at “Net Zero”. The voters don’t want it, they dont care. Morrison and Frydenberg said they bought it in to keep the international bankers happy who were going to raise our interest rates if they didn’t.

        I wish it were about votes…

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        • #
          David Maddison

          I would like Morrison to provide proof that Australia was threatened with higher interest rates from international banks.

          Countries have enormous bargaining power. We would have found a bank that gave us the appropriate interest rate.

          In short, I think Morrison was lying in order to push his GREEN agenda.

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          • #
            Philip

            I would accept the interest rate penalty and provide cheap energy like we used to have and drive the economy with it.

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        • #
          YallaYPoora Kid

          I agree about the bankers Jo however they are just another part of the group influenced by Green crazies so I think my statement still stands ie Morrison et al are appeasing Green influence albeit international pressure rather than local due to the punishment otherwise not to do so. Of course they provide no election votes so you are correct.

          Bankers will go where they can make money and Governments handing out cash for Green schemes is where profits are to be made.

          Net Zero is the game without an end date since it will keep sliding into the future and our so-called conservative FedGov will keep up the pretence in an attempt to harvest votes to get elected.

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      Even if Scomo or any key members of the goverment were to declare RE generation is a failure , ..
      …it would not help to stop the rot.
      There is so much miss informed, uneducated, voting power that would vote them out of power at the first chance…A major step bacwards !
      The Lib/Nats are just playing the re election game currently..spruking for votes to stay in power.
      The current government are the “best of the worst” chances available to have any impact on the current situation, and i suspect if they were to significantly increase their majority, then we could see more action on new coal/gas plants and even Nuclear progress.
      There is zero possibility of anything like that with any other potential government.

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      • #
        RickWill

        Even if the subsidies were stoped tomorrow, the costs would not alter much. Most of the costs are baked in and guaranteed a return. The intermittents will still generate because they are sunk capital and any income is better than none.

        The States have also shown their willingness to subsidies rooftop solar outside any Federal scheme.

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      Robber

      And of course Albo has promised power electricity costs if Labor is elected.
      while in Vic: The Victorian Government has announced a new $250 Power Saving Bonus program for all Victorian households. From 1 July 2022, you can access the new $250 program by visiting the Victorian Energy Compare website and submitting an application.

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  • #
    David Maddison

    The pioneers such as Sir John Monash who helped give Australia a cheap and reliable electricity supply would be appalled at what’s been done to what they built.

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    David Maddison

    As electricity prices continue to spiral in Australia, it won’t be long before individuals and companies decide to generate their own electricity with diesel generators.

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    • #
      Ronin

      Already started in places, the publican at Blackall, there was a story in the paper about him.

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      Ross

      I think you will find that most major businesses in Adelaide installed generators after their mammoth blackout years ago. So, supermarkets, restaurants, pubs etc. So, if they do have another major outage there will be less disruption than that previous event. Then all the renewable promoters will say “Look, the grid worked!!” Even the state installed a huge diesel generator back up facility.

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    • #
      RickWill

      Anywhere on mainland Australia, it is lower cost and less inconvenience to make your own power with solar/battery than using a diesel. Lowest cost solar/battery would include a little generator, as small as possible, to get over consecutive cloudy days.

      The fuel alone for diesel now works out around 50c/kWh. Then there is the cost and nuisance of transporting the fuel – say around 60l per week. The backup needed when the generator is being serviced; running at 168 hours per week will require oil change at least once per month.

      Normall diesel power stations have N+1 or N+2 redundancy to cater for servicing. It also gives the ability to clock different hours so the faults show up sequentially rather than all at once.

      If you have the room for a diesel, you probably have room for solar panels and battery.

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      • #

        The cheapest power supply is still the grid (currently).
        BUT, if it is critical to have a secure power supply, then a back up generator , 5-8kW , is a practical option fro less than $3k
        Battery cells are available for under $300 /kWh , but installed with a charger & inverter would still be expensive , ($10k?) even for a limited 20kWh (1 day) back up)…which is still not a “secure” supply.

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        • #
          RickWill

          The cheapest power supply is still the grid (currently).

          Household power systems are borderline now against the grid and economics will get more favourable. As Australia moves toward Net-Zero, retail electricity costs will continue to climb. The fundamental aspect is that there is no benefit of scale. So those who can afford the capital for their own power system will get lower cost power.

          And right now solar/battery is lower cost than burning diesel.

          I expect that within the next decade, household power supplies will be a preferred option. Just like private transport is a preferred option to public transport.

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          • #

            RickWill
            May 4, 2022 at 6:22 pm · Reply
            The cheapest power supply is still the grid (currently).

            Household power systems are borderline now against the grid and economics will get more favourable…..

            “ Borderline “ ??
            Maybe if you ignore the capital cost ($15+k?) required to install sufficient Solar , battery, and back up generator,..that is required to match a conventional grid connection.
            Even then you are taking responsible for system maintenance and eventual replacement replacement.

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          • #
            Tel

            And right now solar/battery is lower cost than burning diesel.

            Name a town in Australia that uses 100% solar and battery without having full diesel or grid as a fallback.

            King Island uses some solar and wind but regularly ends up depending on diesel.

            Weird the way its so cheap but no one uses it.

            Solar is only useful as an extra bonus, to save some fuel once you already have reliable generator power as a starting point. A small number of very remote communications systems are fully solar and battery because they are too difficult to visit.

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      Serp

      When the country runs out of diesel maybe we can divert sewage to the purpose of firing the generators.

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    Furiously+Curious

    Maybe the problem is rationality is trying to deal with faith and belief. We’re facing a new religion, that has very powerful boosters/hucksters. Now the elites have sold off any industries, sucking off the govt/populous is the rational path. The education of useful idiots, and monopoly is the name of the game.

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    Ronin

    Last night at 02:30, at $199 MWH they were pumping from Wivenhoe to Splityard Ck for the pumped hydro, think they could schedule that a bit better.

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    Ross

    I can only suppose that the solution for those decreased solar and wind supplies early evening will be – wait for it. Batteries!!! This will be the justification for those useless things and probably supported by most of the Electricity suppliers. They will love it, because they have charged up those batteries ( I’m talking the big installations) very early morning with cheap FF electricity and will now release all those cheap electrons at great profit during those early evening times. What a racket!

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    MP

    I’m going to sit here and wait for Tony to provide todays entertainment 🙂

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    RickWill

    Jo wrote:

    And once upon a time, before we had the national grid, the states were separate and self-sufficient.

    There has been power sent across State borders since at least the 1940s. It made sense to send power into northern NSW from SEQ rather than sending it north from Newcastle.

    Snowy hydro supplied Victoria and NSW from 1974.

    Places like Broken Hill in NSW were powered from Victoria from the 1980s.

    I think Queensland’s SWQEB looked after assets in South Australia.

    One of the reasons for the national grid was to remove State monopolies on the supply of power within their borders – I can assure you that State run electricity monopolies were highly bloated and difficult to deal with. Exorbitant wheeling charges were used as a way around the constitution provision for equality of trade across State borders. Victorian large user power was much lower cost than the NSW large used power cost. NSW set a wheeling charge to bring them into line to protect its monopoly.

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    • #

      I know Rick, but SA and TAS were totally separate until quite recently. The Heywood interconnector was built in 1988. Tas joined the NEM in Dec 2005.

      Right now wholesale prices in WA are vastly lower than anywhere on the East NEM system. If they built the interconnector to WA it would not only cost an obscene amount, but our prices would go up probably like SA and Tas are right now…

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      • #
        RickWill

        Wholesale price is a small component of retail electricity costs. It will continue to decline as a proportion as more negative marginal cost intermittents are connected.

        Retail electricity prices in WA are not far behind SA.

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        • #

          No the retail prices here are the same 27 or 28c deals. It’s easy to see why. If people in the East didn’t march in the streets, McGowan figured West Australians wouldn’t either and they didn’t. So our rates were just raised by decree, and like most government charges they are raised to the point where people scream, not the point where they cover the costs competitively and efficiently — though WA has the problem of solving delivery to people over a vast area, so there are large costs in reaching people far from Perth.

          Wholesale charges are hidden anyhow. The subsidies for solar hit hip pockets through other means, but those subsides allow solar to artificially “reduce” wholesale charges. I don’t believe any analysis anymore splitting up the costs. But you know all this?

          As more renewables are added the costs get higher not lower. Even large solar arrays and new wind farms are getting less rewarded and punished for being too far from the “Demand” centres. Thttps://joannenova.com.au/2019/03/market-bloodbath-too-many-new-remote-renewables-projects-means-high-losses/hey have new charges to deal with as well now like FCAS. Slowly the system is adding bills onto the intermittent generators (as it must) and adjusting. but prices won’t go down except in cherry picked small sectors or a few hours of the day.

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  • #

    Interconnectors are a poor excuse. Basically we appear to have every state relying on “somebody else” to provide power if they can’t. Fine in theory but practically if its v hot then most states will have issues with excessive power requirement, and surprise surprise nobody has any power to provide.

    Lets face it, the politicians in the 3 Eastern States no longer involve Engineers, who know how to set up and run a power grid, in any decisions around power provision. Instead they rely on activists and renewables carpetbaggers and because that is apparently what the press want to report, spend all their time virtue signalling and no time at all in trying to ensure we have adequate backup capacity and that the grid itself is properly setup.

    We are heading for a massive failure and just wait for the “we rely too much on coal”, “we don’t have enough renewable capacity” false excuses to come pouring out.

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    • #
      RickWill

      Lets face it, the politicians in the 3 Eastern States no longer involve Engineers

      Not true. The politicians come up with uneconomic ideas and give engineers lots of money to try to make them at least work despite the ridiculously economics.

      There is no better example than Snowy 2. There are a lot of engineers being paid well to make this white elephant work.

      No power systems planning engineer would permit intermittent generators to connect. In the 1980s, I spent a year in various negotiation with ELCOM getting approval to connect a large variable load to the grid at a remote mine site. Their concern was light flicker.

      There was literally no planning for connection of intermittent generation. System design engineers give a wry smile and look forward to solving the issues as they develop – there is no planning. The initial modelling by Jacob’s engineering for the Finkel report was so naive it was essentially BS. They had solar panels at full output for 10 hours every day. There was ZERO actual time run generation data. It was all based on capacity factors and the diversity fairy. Sadly the diversity fairy has failed to materialise as Jo’s chart above demonstrates.

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      • #

        Rick – maybe I should have added that far too many companies (all woke as well) are quite happy to take the money and put in equipment that meets the requests but does not in any way actually ensure continuous and adequate power supply. The engineers then just work to the scope given.

        We don’t have an objective engineering view prior to even putting the scope together. This is crucially what is missing as the scope is dictated by activists and politicians.

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    STJOHNOFGRAFTON

    The big shame is that the concept of solar generated electricity has been taken over by the government for political gain and by the power companies for greedy profit making. We’re now at the stage where we are coerced into mining photons via roof solar panels in order to offset soaring electricity prices and then having to sell any excess electricity to the power companies at a beat-down price which they then sell on at huge profit. As a consequence, many people are now in a feudal relationship with the big power companies. We mine electricity for them and they let us have some of it back if we can keep up the the installments.

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  • #
    Ronin

    Had a look at that spike at 6 pm yesterday, there was zero import, zilch, nada, thanks a lot NSW, we help you out and when we need a hand, zip.

    20

    • #
      b.nice

      NSW didn’t have any to spare either, as Jo’s lower graphs show..

      The whole NEM was very close to having major disruptive supply issues.

      And its mid Autumn.. Let’s see how things go as winter comes.

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    • #
      Brian the Engineer

      The NEM is a price driven market?

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    Ross

    Yes, and those Engineers designed systems to operate under the worse conditions and with backup. Their solution was generally overcapacity- so that overcapacity could be tapped in times of need. Times of need being major heatwaves along the East coast of Australia. That sadly, is not now the case.

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  • #
    Neville

    The Manhattan Contrarian recently linked to a Canadian Engineer who calculated that USA full compliance to Net Zero would cost 400 Trillion $.
    And Lomborg’s expert team estimates that the temp change from that unbelievable sacrifice would be very small.
    And USA’s GDP per annum is about 21 trillion $ and our Aussie GDP is about 1.3 trillion $. So just do the maths and tell us what we would achieve, other than doing a wonderful job of wrecking our electricity for a ZERO return and the complete collapse of our economy?
    Meanwhile China and Russia will be throwing a party and prospering at our expense.

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    • #
      b.nice

      “wrecking our electricity “

      If the younger “woke” generation continue to vote Lab/green, and the Liberals continue to try to virtue-seek for votes from the Lab/greens…

      … then that is exactly what will happen.

      And when they grow up a bit, they will look back and say.. “oh look.. we did that”

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    David Maddison

    This has all gone too far.

    Maybe rational thinkers need to reset the narrative and explain that there is no evidence that anthropogenic CO2 is a problem and that there is no catastrophic global warming.

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    • #
      Forrest Gardener

      When power blackouts become politically intolerable then politicians will take notice just as the SA politicians did when SA went black.

      To go back to first principles about the global warming scam right now will just see eyes glaze over. That is a long game.

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    • #
      OldOzzie

      The war on cars is a war on ordinary people

      Greens seem blissfully unaware that cars are a necessity for most Brits.

      Environmentalists have had it in for cars for years. We all know they’d like to ban cars altogether, but they appear to have come to the (correct) conclusion that doing so sounds unreasonable to most people. And so we’ve had a long line of proposals to make driving more expensive and difficult. The latest one being floated is an effective ban on second car

      Like all the worst ideas in British politics today, this one hails from Scotland. Stefanie O’Gorman, who sits on the Scottish government’s Climate Emergency Response Group, said last month that the construction of houses with double garages drove her ‘bonkers’. She told the Edinburgh Science Festival that owning two cars ignores ‘the social and cultural changes taking place as we adapt our lives to live more sustainably… we can’t afford for everybody to have two cars’.

      Though this isn’t yet the formal policy of any government in the UK, in the age of Net Zero the car is public enemy No1. Low-emissions zones are already in effect in London, Birmingham, Glasgow and Bath, with Manchester, Aberdeen, Dundee, Edinburgh, Newcastle and Sheffield all planning to follow suit. Even in cities that do not have such measures in place, parking is frequently either impossible or expensive.

      Such policies only really make sense if you are a 25-year-old graduate who has only ever lived in London. When I lived in London, virtually no one I knew owned a car – including a chap whose job it was to write about motoring. Many born-and-bred Londoners in their twenties have never even got behind the wheel. But most of Britain is nothing like London.

      Take where I grew up in rural Staffordshire. The nearest bus stop was an hour’s walk, the school my siblings and I went to was nine miles away, and our parents worked in different towns in separate counties. Not having two cars in a situation like this would be virtually impossible – and there are millions of people in the country who face similar issues. Dad might have to travel frequently for work, the kids might attend different schools, mum might work nights, the shops might be a long way away – the list of reasons why a second car might be necessary is potentially a very long one.

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    • #

      David, imsure you know that it has been done..
      But, as they say, “nobody is listening” !
      The parties that could influence a change have higher priorities..
      Politicians…only concerned with the popular vote, to keep their jobs and salaries.
      Investors,..will go where the best return is….subsidised RE !
      Industry,…..where the most oportunities for profits are…… the subsidised RE developments

      We need a louder voice,..and a more honest Media.

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      • #
        Serp

        Just lie back and think of england, green hydrogen and the entire gamut of gimcrack schemes the fiscal fashionistas have on show for us.

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  • #
    Rob T

    Don’t forget the Union super funds are heavily invested in wind and solar. Several ex politicians and I suspect some current politicians are also invested in those things, so as we always say, follow the money. This is all about the taxpayer subsidies going to intermittent energy suppliers and not much else.

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    • #

      The money loop:

      Government subsidises uneconomic programs which generate profits for people who are 100% dependent on Big Government Whims. Then those dependent people donate money back to Big Government politicians and buy media outlets so they can lie to voters and trick everyone into voting for more handouts to themselves.

      Ultimately Big Government feeds Bigger government.

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        • #
          b.nice

          There are no fossil fuel subsidies in Australia. The Australia Institute is a far-left propaganda unit with no scientific or economic merit whatsoever..

          There are only allowable tax deductions..

          You are, yet again, wrong and totally mal-informed.

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        • #
          b.nice

          So sad that Australia Institute are so economically ignorant, that they don’t even know what a subsidy actually is.

          But they are far left, and they know how gullible and ignorant the far-left tail-draggers really are.

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          • #

            Relabelling a tax deduction as a “subsidy” is just what the left does — destroying our language one word at a time. How can we have a sensible discussion when we’re don’t even have a common language with commonly agreed definitions?

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        • #
          b.nice

          Donations look about equal to Lab/Lib.

          Both parties then turn around and donate HUGE amounts to wind and solar…

          And your last link is so over the top as to be manic and totally ludicrous….. “its climate-wrecking gas agenda,” what the heck does that even mean ?

          At least they admit that the fuel tax levy rebate is a “tax break” which is part of the taxation system…. not a government subsidy

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        • #
          Tel

          The largest subsidy is the federal Fuel Tax Credits Scheme, at $8.07 billion, which exceeds the $7.5 billion spent on the Australian Army.

          Just so you can demonstrate some understanding of the material you link to … could you explain what the “Fuel Tax” is, why it exists and how much gets paid in fuel tax every year?

          As a comparison, how much gets paid in solar tax, and wind tax every year?

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        • #
          Hanrahan

          Simon, the mining companies buy fuel delivered in double B doubles and pay the ROAD tax included in their bill.

          When, and only when, they have used said fuel on the lease, not the roads and can prove it, can they apply to get their money back.

          Miners are providing millions in interest free loans to the gov. If you owe them they charge usurious interest.

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    Neville

    Does 1,000 TRILLION $ to only partly achieve NET ZERO by 2100 seem a reasonable quest to anyone here? That’s one of the estimates that Lomborg’s team found in a recent article in the WSJ.

    And that’s just to keep temperature rise to 2 degrees C. So not really net zero. But don’t forget that all of this silly nonsense is just conjecture and nobody really knows whether this will MEASURABLY change temps or provide us with a more pleasant climate around the world.

    But we can be sure that China, India and Russia + all of the developing countries are intelligent enough to see through this religious fanaticism and certainly will never surrender their sovereignty. Here’s the quote and the link.

    “The largest database on climate scenarios shows that keeping temperature rises to 2 degrees Celsius—a less stringent policy than net zero by midcentury—would likely cost $8.3 trillion, or 3.3% of world GDP, every year by 2050, and the costs keep escalating so that by the end of the century taxpayers will have paid about $1 quadrillion—a thousand trillion—in total”.

    https://www.climatedepot.com/2022/01/12/lomborg-todays-soaring-energy-prices-are-only-the-beginning-net-zero-plans-will-cost-many-trillions/

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      PeterS

      It has been explained before there is no way we will ever reach close to net zero let alone all the way. So, it can’t be about emissions and climate change. It’s about approaches the elite can come up with to subjugate the masses and quell any possible resistance. It won’t be so hard to achieve now that they have such a rich array of modern technology at their disposal with more to come. It will still fail though but not by our own accord.

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      David-of-Cooyal-in-Oz

      G’day N,
      Many of us here know that no amount of CO2 reduction will alter any aspect of climate, which will change under influences much larger than car exhausts or coal fired power stations. Any extra CO2 emitted will either be used up by photosynthesis or absorbed by the oceans. And, as always, under the significant constraints of Henry’s Law.
      But that knowledge is suppressed by the “professional” fact checkers.
      Cheers
      Dave B

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        b.nice

        Not to forget how much CO2 goes into the oceans by ocean plant photosynthesis.

        That drives ocean life.. without atmospheric CO2, the oceans would be a “dead” place.

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    David Maddison

    How to detect a fake independent at Australia’s next Federal election by Malcolm Roberts.

    QUOTE
    In answer to many people asking how to identify and stay clear of the fake independents, the teal independents, here are some points from OCN on Twitter:

    1. all roads lead back to cliimate 200
    2. compare their policies – all similar or same
    3. they share similar contact trails. eg climate 200
    4. their funding comes form very simlar aligned sources
    5. check things like logos, printing, etc & see the merchandising being very similar
    6. they’re all tied to “voices of” although i understand “voices of” is a mixed bag

    Plus, the teal or fake independents are running mostly in seats that Liberal MPs hold in a deceptive effort to help Labor, to drive Greens policies and to reward donors seeking windfall financial gains on solar & wind power subsidies for which families and employers will pay through higher power bills.

    It looks like, smells like, sounds like one party when you dont have a party

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    • #
      b.nice

      “sounds like one party when you don’t have a party”

      In a way, it is tantamount to electoral fraud.

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      Dennis

      I understand that part of the anti-Coalition campaign is about wealth creation and crony capitalism, Labor introduced the RET with subsidies (the original was a very small trial basis renewable energy scheme following the Kyoto Agreement on greenhouse gas emissions reduction signed by the Howard Coalition Government 1997 a year after they were voted into Federal Government.

      The crony capitalists were upset when the Abbott Coalition Government tried to abolish Labor’s RET and subsidies but only managed to lower the target a little, but they did get rid of Labor’s carbon tax and renewable energy surcharge on our electricity bills. They became very upset when the Morrison Coalition Government set an end date of 2030 for the RET and subsidies.

      The Morrison Government made various other changes including new company laws to force greater pricing competition between electricity supply companies, and pushing proposals for new coal fired power stations and gas fired generators subject to the necessary State Government planning approvals.

      In short, Climate200 backers want any Federal Government that would push and cooperate with State governments to hasten the transition to renewable energy, electric vehicles and others. And now Labor controls WA, SA, VIC, ACT, QLD and NT so if they can also control the Federal Government then obviously for crony capitalists that would be their preferred result.

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    John Connor II

    And if terrorists are paying attention it might occur to them to take out a transmission tower or two.

    Be careful of what you wish for 😈

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    • #
      John Connor II

      John Vandegrift, a cybersecurity expert at the University of Minnesota, said months before a single shot was fired in Ukraine, Russian hackers broke into power facilities, causing massive blackouts during the bitter cold of winter.

      “Russia is using that as a part of their warfare,” he said in an interview. “Before they ever invaded Ukraine, they attacked the infrastructure. They shut down some of the power grids. I think it was several hundred thousand of the Ukrainians who were without power for a period of time.”

      https://kstp.com/kstp-news/local-news/u-s-officials-cyber-security-experts-sounding-the-alarm-on-potential-russian-cyberattacks/

      Even hinting at(or that which could be construed as incitement for) such attacks is a very bad idea in this political climate.
      I’d delete that paragraph and all related comments if it was me.
      😉

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      • #
        Serp

        There is nothing to fear but thoughtcrime itself.

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        • #

          I’m wishing Australians realized how vulnerable renewables make us. Silence is not the answer. The Chinese engineers have already figured it out.

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          • #
            YallaYPoora Kid

            All engineers have worked it out, the Chinese decision makers have ignored Green politics from the West and made the best decision for the country. In Australia pollies decide based on appeasement politics and tell the engineers to implement it accordingly.

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          • #
            Hanrahan

            Tas, SA and Vic have been getting Sweet Fanny Adams from wind all day.

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    Dennis

    Meanwhile, sitting in a filing cabinet in a Brisbane Queensland Government Office sits proposals from the Morrison Coalition Federal Government …

    * One gas fired generator for a location in SE QLD.

    * One HELE coal fired power station for a location in NTH QLD.

    The coal fired project has the offer of the Federal Government underwriting the finance.

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    Dennis

    The NSW Coalition Government has recently approved development of one gas fired generator proposed by the Federal Government which will be located in the Hunter Valley, another one gas fired power station for NSW has yet to be approved.

    The Federal Government has also proposed one gas fired generator for VIC and one for QLD, both not yet approved.

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    Dennis

    It is frustrating that with our Federation of States (the former Colonial Governments) the Federal Government formed as part of the Commonwealth of Australia has very limited powers and areas of responsibility for internal affairs and therefore State cooperation is essential, examples electricity supply and water supply which are State responsibilities, the power stations and transmission lines privatised were State assets.

    It took over ten years for Federal Governments to negotiate with the relevant States to obtain planning approval before the Snowy Mountains Hydro Electricity Scheme could be started as a project. To get Snowy 02 pumped hydro underway State planning approval was needed and part of negotiations resulted in the Federal Government buying State shares in Snowy Hydro, I think the cost was $6 billion which is often misquoted as construction cost which it is indirectly, but not materials and labour etc costs.

    The Murray-Darling Basin Agreement took many years of Federal Government negotiating with relevant States and dealing with State Government rivalry and prejudices.

    The Morrison Government has been discussing modular nuclear generators with the British Government and Rolls Royce UK, but until the ban on nuclear energy here can be lifted and States give planning approval adding nuclear generators cannot be done.

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  • #
    Neville

    So why are we wrecking our electricity grid, because we know that it will not make the slightest, measurable difference at all?
    And Willis Eschenbach has checked some of the temp data from 1700 to today and also tried to observe the difference in global temps for both max and min temps and still found nothing to be alarmed about.
    So why do we continue with this fra-d and the waste of endless billions $ ( in Australia ) and the enormous waste of endless trillions $ around the world?
    But more importantly what is wrong or unusual or unprecedented about our climate today?

    https://wattsupwiththat.com/2022/05/03/a-sense-of-proportion/

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    • #
      Serp

      We are wrecking our electricity grid because we can; when it’s gone we’ll be able to say we followed the science laid down by the oldest surviving inhabitants of this land and rejoice that we’ll all be “on country” together hereafter.

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    MP

    Aren’t both the NEM and AEMO federal?
    Is our energy and grid in the National security interests?
    Is our federal government responsible for our national security?

    Or is this another “not my job”?

    The MDBA has been a disaster for farmers.

    discussing modular nuclear generators” always talking and handballing, never doing.

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    • #
      RickWill

      Aren’t both the NEM and AEMO federal?

      No. The NEM, AEMC and AEMO come under the domain of the Energy National Cabinet Reform Committee (ENCRC). It is a new name for the old COAG energy committee. Currently Angus Taylor chairs but all State Energy Ministers involved in the NEM have a seat.

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      • #
        MP

        The NationalEM, AustralianEMC and AustralianEMO come under the domain of the Energy National Cabinet Reform Committee (ENCRC). It is a new name for the old COAG energy committee. Currently Angus Taylor (Federal MP) chairs but all State Energy Ministers involved in the NEM have a seat.

        Angus Taylor (born 30 September 1966) is an Australian politician who is the Minister for Energy and Emissions Reduction. He is a member of the Liberal Party of Australia and has sat in the Australian House of Representatives for the Division of Hume since 2013.[2] Taylor previously served as the Minister for Law Enforcement and Cybersecurity from 2017 to 2018.

        So still nobodies job

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    Dennis

    “Not My Job” Labor campaign deceptive advertising mentioned above ……

    A short video explains the deception very well;

    https://www.michaelsmithnews.com/2022/05/brilliant-exposé-of-labors-bullshit-not-my-job-edited-video-of-pm-morrison.html

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  • #
    b.nice

    LOL, Gen-z “climate non-activism”

    https://wattsupwiththat.com/2022/05/03/climate-aware-therapists-teaching-internal-activism/

    Do they really need another excuse to do nothing !!

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    Dennis

    “I don’t hold a hose” deception … reply to a journalist asking another of many at the time questions about why the PM was overseas on a family holiday during bushfires late in 2019, well to begin with the Deputy Prime Minister was Acting Prime Minister in accordance with protocol and fighting fires including bushfires is the primary responsibility of State Governments, Premiers and Cabinets.

    There is no Federal State Emergency Service or Rural Fire Service and others that deal with natural disasters, but when requested the ADF is often sent to assist the SES.

    Natural disasters, bushfires, floods, cyclones, whatever are State Government responsibilities including compensation for victims and repairing infrastructure, but Federal financial assistance is often applied for and granted.

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    Dennis

    Nuclear energy is banned in Australia based on legislation, the Morrison Coalition Government has been investigating modular nuclear generators developed by Rolls Royce UK that the UK Government has invested in and is planning to purchase.

    Before nuclear energy can be used in Australia the ban must be lifted and that requires support from a majority of Legislative Assembly and Senate MPs, and State Governments, but they have even blocked proposals for new Uranium mines. And State planning approval would be needed before nuclear generators could be installed, noting also the electricity supply is a State responsibility, State power stations and transmission lines assets were privatised by State Governments.

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    Dennis

    The Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) performs an array of gas and electricity market, operational, development and planning functions. It manages the National Electricity Market (NEM), the Wholesale Electricity Market (WA) (WEM)[1] and the Victorian gas transmission network. AEMO also facilitates electricity and gas full retail contestability, overseeing these retail markets in eastern and southern Australia. It is additionally responsible for national transmission planning for electricity and the establishment of a Short Term Trading Market (STTM) for gas.[2]

    It commenced operations on 1 July 2009,[3] superseding several state-based and cross-state organisations including the National Electricity Market Management Company Limited (NEMMCO), the Victorian Energy Networks Corporation (VENCorp) which was responsible for the efficient operation of gas and electricity industries in Victoria, the Electricity Supply Industry Planning Council (ESIPC) which was responsible for the effective operation of the electricity industry in South Australia, the South Australian operations of Retail Energy Market Company (REMCo)), Gas Market Company (GMC) and Gas Retail Market Operator (GRMO).

    In March 2017, AEMO sought to reassure the public that the closure of the Hazelwood Power Station, which has a capacity of 1600 megawatt, would be offset by the availability of three mothballed gas-fired stations, which have a combined capacity of 830 megawatts, and large industrial businesses agreeing to time-shift their electricity use in the event of an emergency. The addition capacity would be provided by the Pelican Point Power Station in South Australia, Tamar Valley Power Station in Tasmania and Swanbank Power Station in Queensland.[4]

    In 2017, AGL Energy reaffirmed that it intends to close the Liddell Power Station in 2022.[5] The closure of this and other coal-burning power stations in Australia has led to the former Prime Minister of Australia, Malcolm Turnbull, to seek advice from AEMO on extending the life of a number of them,[6] to head off future power shortages.[7] Turnbull said the government had been advised that if the Liddell plant were to close in 2022, there would be a 1000MW gap in base load, dispatchable power generation.[6]

    In May 2018, AEMO warned solar and wind projects in north-western Victoria of potential curtailment to their generation profiles. In particular, the 220kV transmission line that links Ballarat, Horsham, Red Cliffs, Kerang and Bendigo was the focus of their announcement. “If further development proceeds as suggested, this will add to the thermal constraints in this area”, AEMO warns.[8]

    AEMO has several departments within such as Engineering and Design, Forecasting, National Planning, Operational forecasting, Markets and Strategies as well as administrative, safety, peopleculture and human resources departments. AEMO is the semi-governmental body that acts as the information source for the industry’s and manufacturers outlook on the national electricity policies, forecast as well as future plans. The organisation is owned 60% by the Government and 40% by industry and market participants. AEMO has offices across the country in Melbourne, Brisbane, Sydney, Perth, Adelaide as well as a handful of regional offices.

    Wikipedia

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    • #
      Geoffrey Williams

      Well put, in short the AEMO is the direct cause of all our energy problems; including increased prices, eratic supply, lack of investment, and an unreliable future. And much, much more.

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      • #
        Dennis

        The AEMO is in fact owned by all of our governments with a total of 60 per cent shareholding and others 40 per cent shareholding.

        But I do agree with your comment.

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  • #
    TimiBoy

    Let’s say 100% supply = 1 widget.
    With renewables, we need 100% wind/solar/hydro AND 100% coal/gas. 2 widgets.
    Why pay double when you can’t prove co2 is even an issue?

    Oh sure, storage… at a million bucks a MW, to supply the whole Country for a week in a wind/sun drought we need to spend 2.5 years of National GDP. And that’s only if we have a reliable national grid with decent redundancy, you know, because of storms, fires and so on.

    Want a source for my numbers? All available on the web, item by item. Work it out ya nitwits.

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    • #

      TimiBoy
      May 4, 2022 at 4:59 pm · Reply
      Let’s say 100% supply = 1 widget.
      With renewables, we need 100% wind/solar/hydro AND 100% coal/gas. 2 widgets.
      Why pay double when you can’t prove co2 is even an issue?

      Work it out ya nitwits.

      TimBoy, …unfortunately the nitwits that can do anything about this dont want to know.
      To them it is all a convenient key issue to leverage as a vote winner to gain power.
      The only real parties that can actually change this are the mass voters who could send a ballot message to upset the plan….

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      • #
        Ronin

        It is us the plebs who will be having cold showers, eating tinned food by candlelight and going to bed early with no idiot box.

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  • #
    Philip

    So who pays for that electricity at that price ?

    30

  • #
    b.nice

    Hey, Big improvement.

    Today the 5:30-6:00pm price spike only hit $10,400 in NSW and $10,990 in Qld !

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    • #
      Ronin

      Where’s it all going, it’s not hot or cold, we have no industry, the cane crushing season hasn’t started yet, we have 2 or 3 electric cars, what’s going on.

      30

      • #
        yarpos

        Supply is the issue, not demand

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      • #
        b.nice

        As I tried to explain to Pauly further up the thread, ..

        …. coal-fired power no longer has the capacity to meet 100% (plus a good amount of spare) of the peak demand.

        That means this will happen more and more regularly as the gas peakers and other expensive sources have to be paid to come on line when wind and solar are not doing their bit.

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    David Maddison

    I wish it were possible to take legal action against politicians for their lies and incompetence.

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  • #
    Geoff Sherrington

    On one hand we have engineering, scientific and economic skills that dictate that the killing of fossil fuels would be quite expensive and could easily lead to public unrest/violent uprisings – we are right at the edge of that just now.
    OTOH, we have those decision makers who are committed to that path, despite the availability of solid research showing that net zero is near impossible.
    What is missing is an estimate of the cost of a sudden decision to adopt a “do nothing more” policy. Who has really studied what would happen if we did a quick phase-out of the net zero plan and just went on operating on what we have, with a steady, publicised withdrawal of governments from subsidies, picking favourites, mandating preferences and so on. Just stop regulating and let the market work.
    My guess is that there would not be a large detrimental penalty as the cost of the pulling out operation. The ongoing costs would include a benefit from the return to proven cheaper electricity and a detriment, hard to calculate, of the alleged global warming that rising CO2 would create for the world.
    I cannot see how the detriment would exceed the benefit.
    That is, at this time, a best choice strategy should involve dropping the net zero concept plus all but vital regulation, with a return to a semblance of a free market.
    The likely real cost of future CO2 damage must be tiny, otherwise it would have been shouted from the rooftops by now.

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  • #
    UK-Weather Lass

    As far as I am aware the only existing sources of baseload generator power are coal, gas, hydro and nuclear. Baseload is the amount of energy required to be in a supply line from generator to transformer to supply target at all times. Most of these sources have capacity efficiency well above 85%. There are supply targets that cannot conveniently deal with outages (loss of baseload) and need time to recover when supply is restored whilst other targets could sustain loss or damage on restart. Baseload is required to prevent these unwanted and potentially dangerous and very costly incidents. The reason why SMR’s are considered to be go to replacements for intermittents is they are very flexible, can sustain local baseload very reliably and don’t make horrible noises or die or explode just when you need them most.

    As the technology stands right now wind and solar will never be able to meet baseload since the safe capacity sufficient batteries required are still awaiting discovery/invention. (Resevoirs for hydro remain our best batteries to date). But even more puzzling in this whole mess of an energy sector is that when we find safe, high capacity batteries to store electricity then there will be less wasted energy from the normal baseload sources because any energy surplus way above demand can then be stored (i.e. that part of the baseload that is above the safety/risk margin). We can even safely ditch wind and solar except for specific and perhaps isolated locations where it can achieve its target output cheaply and reliably without blanket coverage as ‘a farm’. The key is the battery store which is, we are told, only a decade away. Funnily enough that battery design is one of those things that has only ever been a decade away since I was born. It is not easy to contain energy of the quantities required in a convenient way. Since when have we relied upon something that we may never be able to invent to save us from doom.

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    • #
      b.nice

      “Most of these sources have capacity efficiency well above 85%”

      With the intrusion of mandated unreliables onto the grid, the actual usage factor can drop down to well below this.

      The renewable scammers then quote this lower number as the capacity factor…. just another lie.

      But yes, if not interfered with, most coal fired power stations can have a capacity factor well above 85%

      IIRC the 3 remaining turbines at Hazelwood, before it was shut down, were running at some 105% of their rated capacity for several weeks on the run.

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    […] Scorching electricity price spikes in NSW and Queensland […]

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    IMHO the persistent AEMO wholesale price increases of the last several months and carrying on in a stellar fashion into this month – are due to the world thermal coal price launching into space.

    I have a coupla blogs on it.

    10