JoNova

A science presenter, writer, speaker & former TV host; author of The Skeptic's Handbook (over 200,000 copies distributed & available in 15 languages).


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Tuesday Open Thread

8.1 out of 10 based on 14 ratings

167 comments to Tuesday Open Thread

  • #
    WXcycles

    La Nina closing down:
    http://www.bom.gov.au/archive/oceanography/ocean_anals/IDYOC007/IDYOC007.202103.gif

    The global jets stream flow is beginning looking more normal again, the flow has become less zonal in the NH, the speed range has dropped back to a more typical level, and the Eastern Pacific Equatorial Jet has almost dissipated over the past month.

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    • #
      TdeF

      Fascinating. Billions spent on Climate Research and unpredictable ocean surface temperature cycles still dominate the weather, not carbon dioxide. They are the go to explanation for every failure of Climate Science. La Nina, El Nino, Indian Dipole, Gulf Stream, Humboldt current.

      So you have to wonder when ‘Climate Scientists’ start to think that perhaps the ocean cycles and solar cycles are the only forces which matter long term. And the two cycles they have no hope of predicting with their atmosphere based computer models. So let’s get more Carbon taxes. Who needs a real explanation when you have a Climate business to run.

      Like Dr Will Steffen of the disgraced Climate Council and his mentor, Chief Climate Scientist Tim Flannery famous for “Even the rains which fall will not fill the dams” was pure Climate Science. With genius like that who needs Climate Scientists. Will Steffen, an American industrial academic chemist is in complete denial that carbon dioxide is demonstrably in rapid equilibrium between the atmosphere and the oceans. According to Will and friends, it is all locked up in the atmosphere. Equilibrium does not exist. You have to wonder then how fish breathe when even highly soluble CO2 cannot get into the water quickly.

      You can almost excuse Flannery as he knows no mathematics, physics, chemistry, hard science. His basic degree was in English and he is a fully qualified Science fiction writer, his lifelong passion. Steffen however knows better.

      392

      • #
        RickWill

        The are unpredictable in the sense that they vary in both time and intensity but they are still going to occur.

        It is noteworthy that in 2010, the CSIRO climate model was predicting temperatures in the Nino34 region would never again reach the La Nina threshold:
        https://1drv.ms/u/s!Aq1iAj8Yo7jNhCWygFiy4nC1ICxg
        By 2014, when CMIP5 update came out, they had to historically cool the region by 0.8C. So much so that the 1998 La Nina did not actually occur.

        The climate models are based on a fairy tale of “greenhouse effect” and the Nino34 region really highlights how silly the models are.

        You can bet that the CMIP6 version will have histporically cooled the region even more. At some point you would think the modellers would take a look at reality and make the leap that their models are a pile of poo that no amount of massage can make into something useful. Starting with a fairy tale means they will never produce anything related to reality.

        We live on a globe that has an incredibly robust thermostatic control on energy input and release. The main risk is the tropical Atlantic going cold. Looks OK this year:
        https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/ocean/surface/currents/overlay=sea_surface_temp_anomaly/orthographic=-29.46,-6.44,477/loc=-26.769,-0.271

        171

        • #
          el gordo

          After the NH summer its highly likely that the AMO will slip into neutral, which presumably should take us back to the 1960s.

          50

      • #
        FarmerDoug2

        TdeF
        “Steffen however knows better”. I like that. No wiggle room. But I can’t give Flannery any either. He was paid, handsomely, to tell us the facts. If he didn’t know he should have found out.
        Doug

        211

        • #
          TdeF

          Agreed. But the money was very good. And still is. He has bought a house in seaside Manly. Not bad for someone who wrote about long dead wombats. In fact the shadow of the Climate Council haunts us all and Flannery and Steffen are still pushing for more government cash.

          Not a single Climate COmmissioner was a meteorologist or had expertise in Meteorology, but faux science is now a cash cow for the left of politics. And a lot of real scientific organizations are on the same wavelength. CSIRO, Universities, BOM, ANSTO and many more. Carbon Dioxide driven Climate Change (aka Global Warming) is very real apparently.

          Even the former Chief Scientist Alan Finkel is now spruiking gas for power, less carbon you see. “Australia’s former Chief Scientist Alan Finkel says the country has some “world record bragging rights” in addressing climate change”

          161

      • #
        Chris

        Tim Flannery was a mamalologist , his expertise was in New Guinean mammals. His cousin John Long is a palaeontologist who discovered the Gogo fish in the Kimberley.

        60

    • #
      Henry B

      Solar activity is rising up a bit wavy jet stream is associated with solar minimums (sunspots)but still looks like it is going to be a weak solar cycle

      30

  • #

    So Sidney Powell has submitted defense papers to the court asking the judge to dismiss the case using the argument

    “No reasonable person would believe” [Her dominion conspiracy theories] “were statements of fact”

    I think she might be onto something.

    517

    • #
    • #
      Tim C

      You’re right, no reasonable person would believe anything she (or Giuliani) said, but ten of millions of Trump supporters did.

      323

      • #
        Hanrahan

        , no reasonable person would believe anything she (or Giuliani) said, but ten of millions of Trump supporters did.

        80 million people voted for Trump.

        What are the statistical odds that none of those 80 mill are “reasonable”, as you claim?

        291

        • #
          Tim C

          Wrong, 74 million voted for Trump, according to recent polls 67% of republicans believe the “stolen election” crap, so that’s about 49.6 million that are unreasonable. So the statistical odds that none are unreasonable are approx. 10 trillion to one.

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          • #
            Hanrahan

            You have just made a statement that you can’t prove. Why do that?

            202

          • #
            Orson

            There are no metrics, apart from “certified” but fraudulent votes, that support a Biden win in November 2020.

            But we do have other metrical indicators of fraud. For example, Rasmussen continues daily tracking polling of the US President’s job approval, which the gold standard setting Gallup organisation established earlier.

            Trump took office in January 2017, with job approval ratings of 55% and rising. By contrast, Biden did the same in January 2021, with job approval of 50% and went down.

            Hell of a WINNER there, Tim!

            100

        • #

          Hopefully some of those 80 million were sceptical about SP late last year. Hopefully.

          Where is that server that Trump rescued in Frankfort? https://joannenova.com.au/2020/11/flood-of-evidence-of-voter-fraud-coming-in-the-next-two-weeks/

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          • #
            Peter C

            I am Not skeptical about Sidney Powell.

            I am hoping that the TRUTH will be told sooner rather than later.

            Where is the Frankfurt server? I would like to know. Gee Aye and others say that it never existed. There is enough evidence for me to think that is not the case but I don’t know where it is now.

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    • #

      Sidney Powell and Lion Wood are like two ranchers with big hats, and no cattle.

      They make big pronouncements but never provide evidence to back up their claims.

      It just shows that some Republicans are fools too … along with all the leftists.

      Both managed to embarrass Trump by trying to defend him.

      Rudy Jiuliani was once a good prosecutor, but was not a good lawyer by 2020.

      An incompetent Trump legal team, IMPO, not that they had enough time to prepare a good case.

      They decided to attack the states violating their own legislature’s election laws “for COVID”.

      Sounds like an easy case to win.

      But a victory was worthless to change the 2020 election.

      Maybe useful for 2022?

      We all know Trump winning 18 of 19 bellwether counties, and the four after midnight pro-Biden vote dumps, are extremely unlikely with an honest election.

      But statistical analysis is just a start for an investigation.

      identifying specific ballots that were printed in a printing machine and ballots whose envelopes were signed by illegal voters / and/or forged signatures / and/or with nonexistent addresses, IS THE KEY.

      That fraud can not be found by a hand recount — they just recount the illegal votes again.

      There are three choices for a more honest election in 2022 and 2024:
      — People have to go to prison for proven election fraud in 2020, or
      — Strong evidence convinces many state legislatures to restrict absentee ballots and require voter IDs, or
      — Republicans cheat as much as Democrats do!

      If H.1 — the Democrats Forever Act — passes through Congress, and is not found unconstitutional by the Supreme Court, .. there will never be another Republican president, or Republican controlled House, or Republican controlled Senate.

      Because H.1 would make election fraud much easier.

      Leftists are much better than Republicans and getting absentee ballots returned and counted.

      That’s because leftists don’t see a difference between illegal votes and legal votes, or they simply don’t care..

      50

    • #
      Kevin kilty

      Reading Powell’s actual statement rather than press summaries of it, you will find that she states that what she said in public are claims awaiting the adversarial process in court to test them. She goes on to cite examples thereof. It is a free speech defense.

      You can call people who are suspicious of the election outcome as kooks, but I suspect years down the road, just as in the 1960 election, people will find there was a great deal of fraud, and it was done in the old fashioned way — political machines voting for people who rarely if every vote for themselves. The reason I hold this suspicion is that the Democrats fought like wildcats to remove the barriers to such activities, and are now proposing to make such safegaurds against Federal law.

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      • #
        Kevin kilty

        Just to underscore the point I am trying to make, an article by Victoria Taft on PjMedia discusses how those huge donations to The Center for Tech in Civic Life (CTCL) from Big Tech impacted voting in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. One example from the article

        People who were required to get a witness to attest that they were the ones filling out their own ballots got a witness alright. The Zuck Bucks were used to buy a professional witness who attested to the veracity of the ballots by multitudes of strangers.

        The Zuckerberg money was used to hire a professional witness [for absentee/mail in ballots]. The reason you have a witness is because somebody knows you and they’re going to verify it was actually you that filled out the ballot. But if you have a professional witness, they don’t know you. [laughs] It kind of undercuts the purpose for a witness. In any event, Rubenstein says, we’ll do this; we will handle the ballots.

        Rubenstein was hired using Zuckbucks to aid certain, but not all election operations. The aid was for Democrat strongholds as opposed to Republican of course. Turnout exploded where ever the CTCL grants were handed out. And in many places the CTCL hires were used to bully and displace the people who were supposed to run elections in the first place. From the article again …

        In case you still don’t follow: Hundreds of millions of private charitable dollars flowed into key urban county election offices in battleground states. The same private philanthropic largess did not reach red counties. Urban counties were able to revolutionize government election offices into Joe Biden turnout machines.

        Adams believes, as an elections lawyer, that the plan was marginally legal. The Safe Election Plan was, in Kline’s view, illegal from the start.

        Now, first of all, that’s a problem. The [US] Constitution vests authority for the elections in the state, not local, government. Secondly, the state legislature is asked to treat all the voters equally. …So these rules apply to state governments and that’s one of the reasons why the federal government requires a state plan, not a city plan, for elections.

        In case you still don’t follow, a government entity using private money made elections more convenient in certain precincts xthan in others. It is a Jim Crow era tactic, and there were laws in place to prevent it. The national Democrats now wish to make those laws in violation of Federal law.

        60

    • #
      Simon

      Jo believed Sidney’s allegations. Does she consider herself to be a “reasonable person”?

      01

      • #
        Bozotheclown

        Nope it means you are not a reasonable person. Simon, lets hear your understanding of what constitutes a “fair” election.

        We can pursue what you know that Sidney didn’t know and how you came to know it later.

        50

  • #

    Moderation sure has some interesting trigger words.

    47

    • #

      twice… I wonder if there is some legal risk avoidance

      [Yes and why would anyone want to help to save your sorry unhappy self?]ED

      39

    • #

      Gee Aye
      Telling “ED” : “up your nose with a rubber hose”,
      was not the best way to avoid moderation.
      That caused “ED” to fall off his bar stool,
      and spill his whiskey. And a moderator
      without whiskey, is like an automobile
      without gasoline.
      Moderator Bait.

      [Depending on the whiskey I am bait-able. ] ED

      10

  • #
    RickWill

    The null school weather globe now includes Convective Available Potential Energy. It has data back to July 2016 so includes the development of cyclone Debbie in March 2017:
    https://earth.nullschool.net/#2017/03/24/2300Z/wind/surface/level/overlay=cape/orthographic=-223.00,-21.90,315
    This shows the early development of Debbie being spun up by the CAPE over the Timor Sea.

    This shows the Total Precipitable Water and how it is being fed into the rain depression that Debbie developed into.:
    https://earth.nullschool.net/#2017/03/29/2300Z/wind/surface/level/overlay=total_precipitable_water/orthographic=-223.00,-21.90,315

    Today, central NSW has TPW of 57mm over it. That is tropical level moisture and resulting in much rain.
    https://earth.nullschool.net/#2021/03/22/2300Z/wind/surface/level/overlay=total_precipitable_water/orthographic=-223.00,-21.90,315/loc=149.759,-28.734

    The Pacific is now moving into El Nino phase with warmer water upwelling again of South America:
    https://earth.nullschool.net/#2021/03/17/2300Z/ocean/surface/currents/overlay=sea_surface_temp_anomaly/orthographic=-145.10,-15.81,315/loc=-146.369,0.038

    This is no a great resource for observation of weather events. It provides data in 3 hourly slots so very good time resolution.

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    • #
      el gordo

      El Nino would normally appear fairly quickly after La Nina, but because the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) is drifting into negative phase it seems unlikely that El Nino will return this year.

      82

    • #
      TedM

      Thanks Rick. CAPE is useful data.

      40

      • #
        RickWill

        I do not know how they are deriving CAPE. It appears to be reasonably accurate. I have followed a couple of cloudburst cycles looking at RH at the different levels. I am yet to find a really distinct cycle.

        I have my doubts about the CAPE data for the Persian Gulf. I do not believe it develops a level of free convection. It certainly has a moist lower layer and dry upper layer but that condition is not created in the same way as occurs over more open water.

        I have used null school to track warm pools over a week or so to try to get a better handle on the moist air convergence to the warm pools. The warm pool can wander hundreds of miles over a few days. Convergence complicates the cloudburst cycle as it makes it 3-D rather than my mental picture of a vertical structure.

        10

  • #
  • #
    Hanrahan

    President Joe Biden’s job approval rating has slipped three points since Friday as Democrats in the House continue to pursue a range of far-left policy proposals, including the Equality Act, H.R. 1, and mass amnesty.

    Monday’s Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll showed the 78-year-old commander-in-chief garnering a 49 percent approval rating and 49 percent disapproval rating.

    “The latest figures include 32% who Strongly Approve of the job Biden is doing and 42% who Strongly Disapprove. This gives him a Presidential Approval Index rating of -10,” Rasmussen reported.

    Monday’s figures represent a three-point drop, as Biden’s approval stood at 52 percent on Friday, March 18. His “strongly disapprove” ticked up two points since Friday, rising from 40 percent to 42 percent, and his “strongly approve” dipped one point, dropping from 33 percent to 32 percent.

    …..Breitbart.

    No government intending to win the next election legitimately would ignore those figures. The dems expect to have completed their coup by 2024 obviously.

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    • #
      OldOzzie

      Jill Biden — the Edith Wilson of the new administration

      In the early days of America, presidential first ladies were hostesses at the White House. In recent decades, they’re goodwill ambassadors for feel-good causes. One exception to this rule was Edith Wilson, who, in 1919, appointed herself as acting president when her husband, Woodrow Wilson, was felled by a stroke in the second-to-last year of his administration. It’s beginning to appear that Jill Biden, married to a decaying, increasing mentally incapacitated man, has chosen Edith as her role model.

      Wilson was also the progenitor of the Wilson Doctrine: briefly, to drag a reluctant nation into World War I — which many Americans saw as Europe’s problem, not theirs — he announced that it was America’s responsibility to make the world “safe for democracy.” This doctrine controlled American politics right until the Trump presidency.

      Trump had a new doctrine: it was America’s responsibility to make the world safe for Americans living in America. Biden is already dragging America back to the Wilson Doctrine, which has seen American blood and gold spilled across the world for over a century. Unfortunately, Biden also seems to be guided by the Obama variation on the Wilson Doctrine, which is that any overseas wars in which America becomes involved should never benefit Americans.

      Where does Edith Wilson fit into all this? In October 1919, Wilson had a serious stroke that left him partially paralyzed and bedridden. Had there been the 25th Amendment then, it would have been reasonable to remove him from office. At the very least, while he was recovering, the vice president should have taken on his responsibilities.

      Instead, Edith Wilson connived with the president’s inner circle to hide from the Americans how sick Wilson was. (Is this starting to sound familiar?) For almost a year and a half, Edith conducted the routine duties of the president of the United States of America. She also screened everything that came to his office, deciding what the bedridden president could and couldn’t see.

      We’ve already seen how Jill Biden is constantly at Joe’s side when he gives his limited interviews, makes a statement for an “official” video, or gives a speech. She often rushes in to give the answer when Joe cannot or is incoherent.

      With Joe manifestly too frail and confused to sell the policies attributed to him (and let’s not kid ourselves that he’s actually in charge in the White House), Jill is the face of the presidency. Kamala hangs out in the background like the Grim Reaper at the party, and Jill is out there as the face of America’s executive office.

      A lot of Americans should be realizing at this point that there’s something very wrong with this picture. They are the victims of a fraud — and I don’t mean the fraud that took place around the votes cast in November 2020.

      I’m talking about the core fraud that sold Joe Biden as a competent person capable of leading the most powerful nation in the world. Instead, there’s reason to believe that we’re being governed not by Joe, but by Jill “Edith” Biden, a person who cannot even do basic math in her laughable Ed.D. thesis. Talk about being sold a rotten bill of goods.

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      • #
        Hanrahan

        It’s beginning to appear that Jill Biden, married to a decaying, increasing mentally incapacitated man, has chosen Edith as her role model.

        Something I have said many times although I have used Nancy Reagan as Jill’s role model.

        I don’t believe Dr Jill is altruistic, propping up Joe “for the good of the country”. She, like so many others, is after personal power. Will she gain this power or will Kamala etc push her aside?

        80

      • #
        David Maddison

        Very good article. Thanks for posting.

        61

    • #

      This survey is not fair to Biden.

      He signs what he is told to sign.

      He reads whatever the teleprompter says.

      He is the Chauncey Gardiner president (Peter Sellers in “Being There”)

      I remember seeing that movie and thinking it was ridiculous — that could never happen in real life — but it happened this year, with Joe Biden.

      Biden is a puppet, and I’m not sure who is pulling his strings.

      I do know from very unfortunate experience with three out of four parents and in-laws that two things accelerate deterioration in dementia patients:

      Moving to a new location (such as the White House)

      Adding stress to the lifestyle (I’d say being president is about as stressful as any job)

      Running Biden in 2020 was elder abuse, in my opinion,

      His dementia was just starting in 2020.

      His new “lifestyle” is likely to accelerate his dementia to the point that it can’t be hidden beyond 2021, if that long.

      50

  • #
    Furiously curious

    How come the experts can give us a solid forecast for 1/04/2183, requiring the spending of trillions, while their forecast for 1/04/2121 has a good chance of being wrong? Maybe they don’t have to face the consequences in the long term, so they can feel very certain? And the weather in a few days is just an ‘oopps’, and there’s always another forecast to distract us. Nothing to see here, moving right along. Or else they are just useful idiots?

    71

    • #
      TdeF

      The rote excuse is that they have no idea what will happen in the short term. They are talking about the very long term. It’s only been 33 years since we were given 10 years to fix the problem of rising CO2 and tens of trillions of dollars later, Sydney harbour should have risen about 20 metres according to the ABC.

      Despite the fact that not a single dire prediction of Global Warming has come true in a third of a century and most have been ridiculously wrong, it is now part of the world economy according to the UN, EU and China. All ambitious world governments. All you have to do is believe everything they say and hand over the cash, sovereignty, borders and political control. And Wu Flu came from a frozen imported chicken or a sweaty American soldier in the 2019 Military games in Wuhan. It’s odd that the Military Wuhan Virus Institute is in Wuhan though. Of all the giant cities of China. Just a coincidence of course.

      You have to love the segue from Global Warming to Climate Change after the infamous ‘pause’. That way extreme rain events are also part of Flannery’s endless drought because the climate has changed.

      192

  • #
    William Astley

    CAGW is a scam that continues because everyone is looking at temperatures in the last 30 years. Climate science independent of the climate wars is interesting and solvable.

    There is a weird pattern in the paleo long term high resolution temperature data.

    Northern Hemisphere, Greenland Ice sheet Project 2, temperatures, for the last 11,000 years.

    http://www.climate4you.com/images/GISP2%20TemperatureSince10700%20BP%20with%20CO2%20from%20EPICA%20DomeC.gif

    This is a little history of the discovery of the subject of ‘cyclic abrupt climate change’.

    Twenty years ago, Climate Scientists discovered a weird unexplained pattern in the Greenland Ice Sheet Project 1 temperature data.

    The pattern of Northern Hemisphere temperature over the last 11,000 years, (shown in the above graph) was not described/analyzed in literature or shown to the public. What caused the spikes and drops, in the past temperature record? There are no plateaus in temperature. There is no explanation for what is observed.

    Comment: This discovery was a big deal, in the climate science community. No one expected what was found and there was and is still is no explanation for what was found. The climate scientists response, was the incorrect hypothesis that an interruption to the Gulf Stream could cause a 400 year or 1200 year cooling period. The largest injection of freshwater into the Atlantic ocean occurred a 1000 years before the start of the Younger Dryas abrupt climate change. There is no correlation in time.

    The paper…..”Past Temperatures Directly from the Greenland Ice Sheet (Project 1 data). Science 1998” hid/smoothed the data from the public…

    (Hey this is at the start of the climate wars….How to interpret the data and not kill a career? What does the data mean?)

    The Greenland Ice Sheet project 1, data showed weird unexplainable long term increases and decreases in temperature had happened, in the Northern Hemisphere during this interglacial, the Holocene interglacial.

    These weird cyclic long term…. Abrupt changes in Northern interglacial temperature were not captured in the climate scientists’ interpretation of the Antarctic Ice sheet data or in their imaginations. We all keep looking at the Antarctic Ice Sheet data which hides the cyclic abrupt climate.

    The cyclic abrupt climate change is captured in the Antarctic peninsula ice core, because of the higher snowfall rates on the Peninsula, than the Antarctic Continent. Also because the Antarctic Peninsula juts out of the Antarctic polar vortex and hence captures temperature changes in the Southern Ocean.

    The discovery that there are the same abrupt climate changes in both hemispheres is interesting as it rules out summer Solar insolation at 65N as the driving function. This is forced climate change.

    http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2012/09/davis-and-taylor-wuwt-submission.pdf

    Davis and Taylor: “Does the current global warming signal reflect a natural cycle”

    …We found 342 natural warming events (NWEs) corresponding to this definition, distributed over the past 250,000 years …. …. The 342 NWEs contained in the Vostok ice core record are divided into low-rate warming events (LRWEs; < 0.74oC/century) and high rate warming events (HRWEs; ≥ 0.74oC /century) (Figure). … …. "Recent Antarctic Peninsula warming relative to Holocene climate and ice – shelf history" and authored by Robert Mulvaney and colleagues of the British Antarctic Survey ( Nature , 2012, doi:10.1038/nature11391),reports two recent natural warming cycles, one around 1500 AD and another around 400 AD, measured from isotope (deuterium) concentrations in ice cores bored adjacent to recent breaks in the ice shelf in northeast Antarctica. ….

    Those interpreting the Greenland Ice sheet Project 1 data, Created the concept of a Holocene Optimum period, a warm plateau period 8000 BP to 4000 BP which is roughly 2.5 C warmer than present.

    After the Holocene warm period, the graph showed, the Northern Hemisphere temperature gradually from 4000 BP to 2000 BP, in a straight line drops to a Holocene minimum. Temperature then recovers only partially to current temperatures.

    Past Temperatures Directly from the Greenland Ice Sheet, Science 1998

    Interpretation of Greenland Ice Sheet Temperatures Last 100,000 years from the Greenland Ice 1 project ice core data

    http://pro.unibz.it/staff2/fzavatti/corso/dahl-jensen.pdf

    Because the Climate community was in crisis. The Greenland Ice Sheet Project 2 immediately drilled at the best location to get the longest core record and to get a location with no ice movement.
    The Greenland Ice Sheet project 2 data …. Has since been verified by other proxies.

    The temperature changes are not random. There is a pattern. It is being forced by something.

    Northern Hemisphere, Greenland Ice sheet Project 2, temperatures, for the last 11,000 years, (Alley 1999)

    http://www.climate4you.com/images/GISP2%20TemperatureSince10700%20BP%20with%20CO2%20from%20EPICA%20DomeC.gif

    The pattern is the same. The large abrupt drops in temperature (1500 year period with the largest at a 6000 year period), are unexplainable abrupt and large and they follow the warm period cyclic periods.

    The pattern in the record is the same.

    The duration of the cold period, after the large, very sharp, abrupt drop in temperature (1500 year period and 6000 to 8000 years between the largest drops) the duration of the drop in temperature, is proportional to the square of the temperature drop.

    For example, The Younger Dryas abrupt climate change was about 5C drop, with 70% of the cooling in less than a decade, and it lasted for 1200 years after which the climate rapidly recovered.

    The Holocene interglacial is again interrupted at 8,200 BP with an abrupt drop of 2.5C drop and that cold period lasted for 400 years and then temperature again quickly recovered.

    The same pattern, drops in temperature and sometime after partial recovery appears in the Greenland Ice Sheet project 2 (Alley’s 1999 paper) again and again.

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    • #
      RickWill

      The Atlantic has a fragile energy balance; always teetering toward the low temperature side. It does not reach the 30C tropical ocean controlled limit very often. Once Ice begins to accumulate on land it is a positive feedback that reduces heat input to land around the North Atlantic. So ice accumulation intensifies.

      The thin atmosphere on the Greenland plateaux will have next to no heat capacity so it responds rapidly to changes in energy balance. around the North Atlantic. Greenland temperatures are not observed universally across the globe. Even during glaciation, the Pacific warm zone just moves a bit west and Indian Ocean hardly reflects any change with glaciation. Glaciation is predominantly the North Atlantic but the cooling spreads into the South Atlantic, across Antarctica and there is some small influence on the tropical Pacific. And cooling in Alaska due to Arctic Ocean and loss of heat transport from Pacific into Arctic.
      https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1029/2000PA000506

      Oceans regulate maximum temperature to 30C through convective instability and convergence associated with that. The radiative energy balance goes negative when the SST reaches 32C but convergence of moist air from cooler zones and subsequent cooling precipitation set the control limit to 30C. However the South Atlantic is not a very big solar collector and does not make it to 30C through the Austral summer:
      https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/cdas-sflux_sst_global_1.png
      By August, there should be warm pools reaching 30C. That means that there is a surplus of energy and it is being rejected. Pacific always has warm pools at 30C and Indian Ocean most of the time.

      Most significant variation in temperature can be related to orbital geometry. Some regions being much more sensitive than others; specifically the North Atlantic.

      There is little real science being done with regard climate. Any evidence that contradicts the “greenhouse effect” fairy tale just does not get support. The administrators of any climate research unit knows where the money comes from. Those who go against the consensus get their support cut off. All climate models are based on the fairy tale so are all wrong.

      The Average Global Surface Temperature is easy to calculate – the maximum is 30C and the minimum is -2C hence the average is 14C or 57F. Anyone claiming something different is inferring a level of precision for measuring systems that are simply not possible. When the tropical Atlantic goes cold, that part of the globe goes cold but there will still be some ocean at 30C and water lapping sea ice at -2C so AVERAGE surface temperature is still 14C. The Earth has stood the test of time.

      The fact that temperature data sets are tortured through the process of homogenisation confirms the lack of precision in measuring systems.

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      • #
        Gary Simpson

        Thinking about this logically, I would assume, (although I am certainly not a scientist), that any chaotic system, including the climate of the Earth, is still subject to some immutable laws of the universe. One of these seems to be that all such systems strive for equilibrium although they are never in a state of perfect balance. Therefore, they must fluctuate either side of that ideal setting, in the case of the climate, this must mean both warming and cooling are necessary and will always occur with no outside assistance necessary. I hope this is correct so we can all save some money and get back to solving really, really important issues, like gender, etc.

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        • #
          Lucky

          This striving for equilibrium by systems, I’m looking for the right word, it is just warm fuzzy thinking.
          There is no striving by non-conscious abstractions; there is no perfect balance, systems can have one or more than one or no balance points. Nature follows nature’s laws not human desires.
          What is a balance anyway? Just some state that appears to a human observation not to be changing.

          00

    • #
      Tilba Tilba

      CAGW is a scam that continues because everyone is looking at temperatures in the last 30 years. Climate science independent of the climate wars is interesting and solvable.

      What do you say to those who accept the overwhelming scientific consensus – that CO2 is causing very significant global warming, and that the increase in CO2 is caused by massive fossil-fuel burning?

      This is a serious question – not flippant. I accept the consensus, and have never been given any credible reason not to. I still do not have one.

      I am also mightily puzzled why a few people are such vehement climate-deniers. Isn’t the best position to occupy one of minimum regret?

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      • #
        Graeme#4

        The moment you mention “consensus “, you’re not talking about science.
        As Einstein said, “Genius abhors consensus, because when consensus is reached, thinking stops”.
        And Michael Crichton commented, “…Historically, the claim of consensus has been the first refuge of scoundrels; it is a way to avoid debate by claiming that the matter is already settled… … Let’s be clear: the work of science has nothing whatever to do with consensus. Consensus is the business of politics. Science, on the contrary, requires only one investigator to be right, which means that they have results that are verifiable by reference to the real world. In science consensus is irrelevant…. …The greatest scientists in history are great precisely because they broke with the consensus.”
        And I can give one recent example of this: Barry Marshall and stomach ulcers.

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        • #
          Tilba Tilba

          The moment you mention “consensus “, you’re not talking about science.

          Yes I am – “consensus in all fields of science is very important.

          Someone posits a theory, and then does extensive field work or lab work, doing research and experimentation in order to test the theory or hypothesis. They publish, they are peer-reviewed by competent equals, and (hopefully) their research or experiments are replicated and confirmed by others.

          Out of this emerges a consensus – where a very substantial majority of qualified people in the field accept the results as rigorous and correct.

          This has been the case in climate science, I believe.

          01

          • #
            Analitik

            their research or experiments are replicated and confirmed by others

            Sure. Micheal Mann has refused to provide the data that underpins his hockey stick graph of temperature rise because he knows the data shows nothing of the sort yet climate “scientists” accept his work and gladly quote in for their own publications.

            Circular proof is not scientific yet climate scientists engage in the practice all the time.

            “Proving” global warming effect by running scenarios through unproven (actually proven to be hugely inaccurate) computer models is also not scientific experimentation yet articles of doom are produced from such simulations.

            Climate “science” is a totally fraudulent field

            20

      • #
        John R Smith

        “that CO2 is causing very significant global warming”

        What is your number for the amount of warming in the era of “massive fossil fuel burning”?

        As a “vehement climate-denier” I would say …

        Science is and will never be a consensus (Catholic and Protestant Judicial Immolations were done by consensus).

        The path of history is littered with the burning, stinking wreckage of ‘consensus’.

        The average temp of the earth cannot be measured to an accuracy of one or two degrees (C or F), and even if it could it would be of dubious import.

        The cause of climatic changes are and will forever be geologic and orbital mechanics far beyond human control.

        Would you be happier if the glaciers were advancing?

        “Isn’t the best position to occupy one of minimum regret?” … No. OMG. If this your worldview, I might suggest not committing forever statements on the internet.

        Or leaving your house.
        Building a house in the first place could be a problem for you.

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        • #
          John R Smith

          Oh … and sex
          for minimum regret, definitely avoid sex.
          There may very well be a consensus on this point.

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      • #
        Chad

        Tilba Tilba
        March 23, 2021 at 5:19 pm ·

        What do you say to those who accept the overwhelming scientific consensus – that CO2 is causing very significant global warming, and that the increase in CO2 is caused by massive fossil-fuel burning?

        I say….
        ……show me the scientific PROOF that CO2 is the CAUSE of global warming ..!

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      • #
        RickWill

        What do you say to those who accept the overwhelming scientific consensus – that CO2 is causing very significant global warming, and that the increase in CO2 is caused by massive fossil-fuel burning?

        The simplest way is to show them unequivocal evidence that the “greenhouse effect” is a fairy tale. The best evidence is that the globe energy balance is controlled by two powerful thermostatic process with a maximum of 30C and a minimum of -2C. The thermostatic control can be observed every day of every year across the oceans:
        https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/cdas-sflux_sst_global_1.png
        Three disparate tropical oceans all regulating to to 30C give or take a degree. Two widely separate polar oceans both regulating the sea ice water boundary to -2C.

        You can look at this chart any day of any year in any decade, any century or even any millennia and it will have the same result.

        The average surface temperature of earth is simply the arithmetic mean of the two extremes 14C or 57F.

        The “greenhouse effect” is simply nonsense. How could some delicate radiative energy balance achieve the result result across three completely separate oceans thousands of kilometres apart.

        The convective instability that limits the oceans temperatures is poorly understood. There have been people who have recognised the process and published papers on it but they have been silenced by obscurity or paid off to join the club.

        Even during glacial periods, both the Pacific and Indian Ocean maintain the thermostatic control. The Atlantic Ocean runs cold, typically maxing out at 26C during a glacial episode – the orbital geometry limits insolation over the North Atlantic and it does not reach the 30C control limit.

        There is unlimited evidence if you get into the detail of climate models. They are unphysical rubbish. CSIRO had to cool the Nino region by 0.8C between 2010 and 2014 so they could show an upward trend in successive IPCC reports where there is no trend:
        https://1drv.ms/u/s!Aq1iAj8Yo7jNhCWygFiy4nC1ICxg
        The NCEP data is based on satellite scanning but corrected to match the tropical moored buoys – it is the best temperature data set for this region.

        Looking into the CMIP6 climate models, they give the current global average temperature over a range of 2C. The consensus here is the the average surface temperature covers a range of 2C at any point in time and we are being told the climate system falls apart with another 0.5C increase:
        https://1drv.ms/u/s!Aq1iAj8Yo7jNhBlQt8jdeBoZ9NhY
        If you take your consensus as the Chinese FGOALS model then there is clearly no issue. The only model that is grounded in physics is the CMRW-21. The rest are based on a fairy tale with parameterised clouds – just utter nonsense. Tropical clouds will be whatever is needed to control the maximum sea surface temperature top 30C.

        This paper was buried and the authors moved on to more “consensus” driven pursuits:
        https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/1999GL900197

        Its proximity to the upper limit of SST at about 30C is intriguing

        In this way, deep convection is able to nudge the tropical ocean from its state of an energy receiver (warming phase) to that of an energy supplier (cooling phase). This is a thermostat-like control, but it is intrinsically different from Ramanathan and Collins (1991) who used a cloud-radiative thermostat to explain the entire SST regulation

        Published in 1999 using data collected in 1993 and you see the same 30C maximum temperature being quoted.

        All funded climate studies have been horribly corrupted by politics. It is so biased that the dimwits working on climate models actually believe they are doing good work. They are a menace.

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      • #

        Tiiba Tiiba
        Understanding global warming does not require much thinking or science training.

        Our planet has had global warming for the past 45 years.

        So you have ACTUAL experience LIVING WITH global warming.

        Were you harmed in any way?

        I’m sure the answer is “no”.

        But we have people predicting the next 45 years of global warming will be completely different than the past 45 years — a climate emergency.

        Perhaps you are not old enough to have acquired the wisdom that humans are terrible at predicting the future.

        Predictions of the future climate have been a great example.

        Predictions of a coming global warming disaster started with Roger Revelle in 1957.

        18 years of global cooling followed.

        Then global warming started in about 1975.

        It has been pleasant, mild, harmless warming — not a climate crisis at all.

        Unless you believe warmer winter nights in Siberia are a crisis.

        That’s 63 consecutive years of wrong coming climate crisis predictions — from 1957 to 2021 — so maybe it is time to start IGNORING the always wrong predictions?

        You have a choice:
        Your actual experience with some, or all, of the global warming since 1975, along with billions of other people

        or

        Always wrong wild guess predictions of a coming climate crisis, made every year since 1957, that never stop

        It’s your own pleasant experience with past and present global warming

        versus

        the green apocalyptic visions of a horrible future climate

        … an imaginary crisis that is always coming in 10 years … but never arrives.
        An imaginary coming climate crisis that exists ONLY in their over-active imaginations.

        I prefer thinking about reality, over believing in apocalyptic green visions of climate doom.

        I hope you do too .

        And that’s my 24 years of reading climate science, summarized into an easy to understand “lecture”.

        I have a climate science and energy blog, with over 20,000 page views so far this month, that may interest you, at:
        http://www.elOnionBloggle.Blogspot.com

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  • #
    Furiously curious

    Having had ‘discussion’ about black lives matter, and trying to find a simple way to cut through ‘feelings don’t care about facts’. Maybe something like — “in a normal year, 10 to 12 unarmed black people are gunned down by red neck, hillbilly, racist cops.
    (holding up a finger) ” For this one black person, how many black people were gunned down by other black people? (holding up a finger on the other hand) “One cop killing, how many killed by the gangs? Take a guess ???????……..
    seven …………….
    hundred,
    that’s a good year. This year it will be closer to 1000 black deaths for every cop killing.” BLM, yeah.

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    • #

      Your point (if there is one) is moot. BLM explicitly recognises the problem of violence of blacks against blacks.

      [Really? Then why aren’t BLM explicitly marching in Chicago? BLM is a press based propaganda machine. They really could care less about B or L. ]ED

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      • #

        You based this opinion on knowing what other people think ED?

        Here is an uninteresting factoid ” Eighty-three percent of white victims are killed by white assailants.”. Uninteresting because it does not tell you about actual numbers but it does refute one aspect of Fc’s comment. Comparing black on black to cop killing is irrelevant as they are two separate issues.

        some reading https://abcnews.go.com/US/black-black-crime-loaded-controversial-phrase-heard-amid/story?id=72051613

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        • #
          Harves

          What rubbish. The overarching message of BLM and its media propaganda arm, is that blacks are killed by racist white supremacists. The fact that 90% of blacks are killed by blacks is a very inconvenient truth. As is the fact that blacks commit more than 50% of all homicides despite being only 13% of the population. If only black lives mattered to blacks.

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        • #
          Peter Fitzroy

          Why aren’t australian men marching against male violence?
          Why aren’t any men marching against sexual violence?
          Why aren’t south Asians marching against randoms who gun 6 of them down?

          I like this game tha ED has made.

          It is a strange argument which condones violence on these grounds

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        • #
          TdeF

          The statistic I have read often is that while Black Amnericans form 14% of the overall population, an amazing 50% of all burglaries are by black people. And 40% of ALL murders. Which added to your figure means the number of black murders is much higher than the population ratio. Black on black murder is epidemic. Black Lives clearly do not matter in an ultra violent Black community. So blame everyone else.

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          • #
            Peter Fitzroy

            and did you bother to check?
            From wikipedia (and unless you can do better, do not shoot the messenger)
            Academic research indicates that the over-representation of some racial minorities in the criminal justice system can in part be explained by socioeconomic factors, such as poverty, exposure to poor neighborhoods, poor access to public education, poor access to early childhood education, and exposure to harmful chemicals (such as lead) and pollution.[2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9][10][11] Racial housing segregation has also been linked to racial disparities in crime rates, as blacks have historically and to the present been prevented from moving into prosperous low-crime areas through actions of the government (such as redlining) and private actors.
            or this
            A panicked white woman in New York City’s Central Park calls 911 to say that a black man threatened her and her dog.

            A Florida mom claims two black men abducted her son, who had autism, and was later found dead.

            But the harrowing story from Manhattan was just that — a tall tale about about a potential assailant, but a bird watcher. And the supposedly terrified mother, police say, was never confronted by two abductors, but instead has been charged with killing her son.

            Both the phony 911 call and the alleged kidnapping story follow, experts say, the stereotypical notion of black men as criminals and the ingrained racism that has existed in American society for generations. Although some may find it shocking that people are still resorting to these tropes, experts say that a culture of relative impunity has allowed it.
            from ABC (america)

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          • #
            Peter Fitzroy

            Ive been Shadow Banned, that will make Gee Aye jealous

            [Eer no you weren’t just the auto filter but I can arrange it if you like ! It’s really no trouble at all.]AD

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          • #
            R.B.

            93% of black Americans murdered are killed by other black Americans. The problems are not racial conflict.

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      • #
        GlenM

        More nonsense.

        122

      • #
        Tilba Tilba

        I find it interesting that the white guys (of which I am one) own and control 90% of all the goodies available in almost every Western nation, and when the minorities attempt to get a bit more than 10% – SHOCK HORROR – it’s the end of the world! And the white guys go into full-on attack.

        318

        • #
          Harves

          Tilba, do you even understand how racist you are? Implying that all white people only own stuff because of their skin colour. And that black people shouldn’t be expected to do anything but loot to get what they don’t own?
          People like you that play the victim card on behalf of other races cetttainly puts them in their place … forever.

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      • #
        R.B.

        BLM could save more lives by targeting a very small number of counties, especially in Chicago, if you it really was the aim.

        Its a pretty simple argument to understand. About 7% of murders of black Americans are by non-blacks. The vast majority of those are by people motivated by non-racist agendas (drugs). The vast majority of those who did will not have their hatred abated by [Snip]AD blocking the traffic.

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    • #
      Hanrahan

      The most dangerous place for a black child is in the mother’s womb.

      1 out of 3 black babies – 800 every day – are @borted;
      34% of black babies were @borted in 2017;
      61.3 million babies have died by @bortion in the U.S.A. since 1973, 19.4 million were conceived in black American women;
      78% of Planned Parenthood clinics are in black or other minority communities.
      [Data from a Christian website]
      This explains the drive by dems to open the borders to new voters, the Judean/Christian families [conservatives] are outbreeding the democratic base.

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      • #
        Tilba Tilba

        This explains the drive by dems to open the borders to new voters, the Judean/Christian families [conservatives] are outbreeding the democratic base.

        This is egregious and race-biased indeed. For every thousand live white births, how many abortions are there? It would be hundreds … young (and not so young) white women have far better and safer access to abortion services, I expect.

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        • #
          Hanrahan

          You are easily triggered.

          You may be ashamed of being white, I’m not.

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          • #
            Tilba Tilba

            An obvious strawman – I have no problem being white hetero male middle-class … pretty close to the top of the food chain and grateful for it. But that does not prevent my having a huge empathy with those who do not tick all the privilege boxes that I can

            If you have no empathy with those far worse off than yourself – then you have no heart.

            And you ducked the issue … the number of white abortions per 1000 white live births. See if you can provide. Take your time, the floor is yours.

            08

            • #
              MP

              Minorities, sounds like your talking globally, lets look at the stats.

              Anglo Saxons make up 20% of the world population.

              00

          • #
            OriginalSteve

            Indeed….ironic that the very group who built europe and Australia and created an advanced society, are now no longer seen as benefical to some carping and moaning leftist fringe group who are rapidly loosing their grip on reality, it seems.

            Maybe those of us who are proudly descended from white caucasian european stock, should take all our communications technology and well being and medical technology, and happily live with it, and all those who want to live without it, can.

            Enjoy….

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      • #
        Tilba Tilba

        And perhaps worth noting that millions of “Judeo/Christian families” are not inherently conservative, comrade.

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    • #

      Based on data from the ultra-liberal Washington Post:
      if a suspect resists arrest, he may be shot by the police in self defense, and be killed.

      That does not happen often, but it does happen.

      What race / ethnic group of suspects are least likely to be shot and killed by police when resisting arrest?

      The correct answer is black, when compared with white non-Hispanic and white-Hispanic suspects resisting arrest.

      The most likely reason for the difference is that policemen fear that even a justified shooting of a black suspect resisting arrest will lead to them losing their job, or worse.

      There is racism in America
      It mainly legal racism directed against white and Asian Americans using affirmative action laws.

      Beyond the laws mandating racism, there are the actions of criminals who could not care less about laws.

      When one examines FBI data on interracial crimes of violence, mainly assaults and armed robberies, black criminals select white victims far more often than white criminals select black victims. It is not even close.

      You may not know any of these hard facts, because leftists prefer black Americans to feel that they are victims of racism, when in fact, they are often perpetrators of racism.

      20

  • #
    Susan Fraser

    https://richardsonpost.com/howellwoltz/21102/critical-crap-replaces-critical-thinking/

    Howell Woltz helps the uneducated like me, who didn’t even know what critical race theory means, to know it is a Marxist idea
    to cause division and destroy the structure of society.

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  • #
    TdeF

    Radar doesn’t have to see, day or night, black or white. That truck should have been lighting up the car radar for a long time. It was a sweeping bend but even the driver should have seen it much earlier. Both were asleep at the wheel. And the cars following also did not appear to slow much. Driving is so new in China. The skill level is very low.

    41

  • #
    TdeF

    Relates to Rick WIll’s link at #5.

    10

  • #
    Joseph

    Just thought I’d try a slightly different name and see if it will let me through moderation free after this . . . .

    00

  • #
    Joseph

    Let’s see . . . . . .

    00

  • #
  • #
    Peter C

    Sun is Shining Again in Sydney!

    I have just been advised by a Sydney-sider that the flooding rains have blown out to sea and the Sun is peeping through again!

    90

  • #
    TedM

    The covid-19 pandemic could be over according to Dr. Mobeen Syen, if we used ivermectin globally.

    https://youtu.be/ypxrJhSg5xU

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  • #
    OldOzzie

    Watching Kindig Customs and mention of floor mounted Dip Switch

    How many JoNova Bloggers remember driving Cars with Head Light High Beam Dip Switch on the floor

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    • #
      TdeF

      We were too poor to afford high beam.

      100

      • #
        TdeF

        Then all we had were dipsticks.

        90

        • #
          OldOzzie

          How was the Oil Level?

          60

          • #
            Graeme#4

            When the rings were worn, tended to go down fast in a blue cloud out the back, so just topped up with old oil from garages along the road.

            60

            • #
              OldOzzie

              BMC A Motor – Valve Grind and Decoke every 10,000 mils

              50

              • #
                Hanrahan

                Grey motor Holdens needed a head job every 25,000 miles. Being a low milage driver didn’t help, then the rust got ‘ya.

                I ran a servo in a modest sized town in a previous life and we all of us sold valve regrind kits – regularly.

                In those days a LOT of people did such work because most had a mechanic as a relly or neighbour so they learnt to do stuff themselves.

                They don’t make ’em like they used to thank God.

                80

              • #
                Graeme#4

                Could remove the head, replace a valve and lap the other valves in an afternoon. Cars were easy to fix then.

                50

            • #
              Analitik

              Cars were easy to fix

              Helped by there being room in the engine bay to work – there was almost standing room in the bay of an HQ with a red motor. These days, you need ratcheting spanners and unijointed socket extensions to be able to remove and install half the maintainable components.

              20

      • #
        robert rosicka

        We never used any lights when driving at night because the old man was saving electricity.

        80

        • #
          OldOzzie

          On Full Moon night used to drive 1962 1/2 VW Bettle from West Head Turn off in National Park, on then Dirt Road, to West Head at speed with no lights

          30

          • #
            Kalm Keith

            I drove my 1959 VW beetle to the top of Mt. Kosciusco before they closed that off.
            Great car.

            50

            • #
              OldOzzie

              Have a photo of my 1949 Ford Prefect at TriPod on top of Mt. Kosciusco 1962 on outback trip, Roo Shooting, to Tibooburra, Adelaide, Mt Gambier, Melbourne, Victorian High Country then Dead Horse Gap and up to Mt. Kosciusco – with 3 speed gearbox, had to reverse the last 3km up to the Summit, with one of my mates sitting on the Mudguard pouring water into the boling radiator.

              80

            • #
              OldOzzie

              Porsche Carrera Racing 547 Engine Construction Kit

              As Amazon Au Prime Member –

              Porsche Carrera-Rennmotor: 4 Zylinder Boxermodell vom Typ 547
              Brand: Franzis Verlag GmbH
              4.4 out of 5 stars 97 ratings
              Price: Aud $343.94

              10

            • #
              Tilba Tilba

              We drove to the Kosciuszko summit at Christmas 1973 … AP4 Valiant Sedan … very solid vehicle, with pushbutton Torqueflite automatic transmission.

              50

          • #
            Hanrahan

            6V Beetles. You had to use a cigarette lighter to see if your lights were working. lol

            70

    • #
      Graeme#4

      Yes, Austin A40, and it was a great idea, very easy to use on long night country drives. I added a Lucas “Flamethrower “ spot to the high beam switch. Worked a treat but tended to drain the battery.

      60

      • #
        Tilba Tilba

        I went through the windscreen of my family’s Austin A40 in a crash south of Sydney – on 8 April 1958. I still remember it like it was yesterday. In fact I probably remember it better than yesterday.

        10

    • #
      Annie

      Yes indeed! I certainly remember a floor-mounted high beam dip switch.

      61

      • #
        Annie

        My husband had an Austin A30…it needed so much oil it was almost a two-stroke! Maybe a 1954 or thereabouts model.
        My first car was a 1953 Morris Minor (two-door, split windscreen, British Empire green) bought from friends who emigrated to the US. It was known to my family as the dog kennel as I had a golden retriever who travelled on the back seat. It had the old trafficators to signal turns and I ‘modernised’ it with the new-fangled ‘winkers’! The trafficators didn’t always work so I needed to do the old hand signals until the new winkers were fitted.
        My, those were the days.

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        • #
          Hanrahan

          Nostalgia is a wonderful thing but wears thin when thinking of friends you buried.

          All old cars were death traps but I rate the 1200 Beetle the worst. Many years later I would hear of a doting Dad buy their teenager a Beetle and shudder.

          40

          • #
            OldOzzie

            Just because you had a fuel tank in front of you – what death trap – rallied my 62 1/2 VW in the days of the Bikkie Baron VW Rally Driver Barry Ferguson and had a great time – ended up navigating in the 1st Rothmans Southern Cross Rally in 1966

            40

            • #
              Hanrahan

              Good rally cars BUT…..

              You mention the fuel tank but worse was the SOLID steering column starting at the steering rack 6 inches behind the bumper and ending 6 inches from your heart.

              A bad memory of mine was hitchhiking and a guy pulled up not far out of Sydney in a VW, asked if I could dive and promptly “died” in the passenger seat. I tried an overtake with a mile of clear road but they were famous for their 72MPH top speed. But even that didn’t happen quickly. Eventually I made it but it was an uncomfortable feeling I remember 60 years later. My 4 cyl Vanguard was better – when it worked.

              30

              • #
                OldOzzie

                A bad memory of mine was hitchhiking and a guy pulled up not far out of Sydney in a VW.

                My memories of hitchhiking in the Outback was why I got a HC Heavy Vehilce Drivers Licence, so I could relieve the Drivers driving Semi Trailers in the outback

                Liked the Mack B Series and the Mack R Series

                30

              • #
                Chad

                ‘52 Ford Prefect,…61 Ford Poplar, …68 Beetle.
                The Fords both had floor dip switch, but the Beetle had a neat switch on thr indicator stalk.
                That was the best & most convenient dip switch i have ever used to this day…
                …and i have had. LOT of cars since then !

                PS.. i am about to buy another 68 Beetle again !
                Nostalgia ? .. i ‘aint wot it used to be ! !

                40

            • #
              Hanrahan

              How time flies. VWs did well in the Redex Rallies around the country because they were rugged, no nonsense cars.

              I remember the trip from Rocky to Mackay, the coast road, in spite of being Highway 1 was terrible and Marlboro to Serina was officially a “horror stretch” in the rally.

              Us mere mortals took the inland route which was OK until it rained, the bridges were barely more than a few meters over the river bed. Funnel Ck, was famous for more than murders.

              There was a halfway roadhouse, must have made a fortune because most cars of the day HAD to refuel and they bought windscreens by the dozen. They didn’t call it “the crystal highway” for nothing. Two experienced drivers could pass without going off the roads but beginners and anyone meeting a truck went off the road spraying stones.

              No! I am NOT nostalgic.

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              • #
                Annie

                Back in the 1960s I had a Fiat 600 in Cyprus. A lot of the roads were only one vehicle wide with rough steep edges. On meeting an oncoming vehicle, one had to play ‘chicken’ to force it off the road. As the, almost invariably, smaller vehicle, I thought the larger one should give way as being more capable of coping with the edge! Usually they did if one stuck to one’s guns, but being ready to go off at very short notice if necessary!

                31

          • #
            Annie

            We had an ancient and tatty LHD Beetle in Germany which was a dreary grey colour. Some silly Snoopy stickers on the doors livened it up a bit. Sold it to a friend, describing it as strictly only ever used/recommended as a local run-around. He promptly drove it off to the ferry to England and wondered why it broke down!

            31

          • #
            Analitik

            Many years later I would hear of a doting Dad buy their teenager a Beetle and shudder.

            Especially those girls on P plates you saw driving the convertible Beetles.

            20

    • #
      PADRE

      I had an old Austin A30 when I was an officer cadet at Sandhurst in 1966. One Saturday I took three other cadets to play cricket. The ground was up a rough track. Later, back at the academy, after I had chamged ready to go up to London for a party, I discovered a pool of molten tarmac under the A30. I soon discovered that the fuel tank had split around the drain plug! There was only one obvious answer – chewing gum. I scrounged some from friend, chewed like mad, stuck it over the crack and drove the 40 miles to London. When I sold the (for what I paid for it) about six months later, the chewing gum was still in place – as far as I know!

      30

  • #
    OldOzzie

    Cel Artworks

    WIP – I need a cuppa.

    The detail of the painting is amazing, but I do like

    The Beatles Series

    20

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      Len

      One of your links took me to Facebook. I haven’t visited this site since the 4th of November 2020 so I backed out very quickly.

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        OldOzzie

        Pity, the WIP is pretty amazing

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          Chad

          OO..
          Remember … “Beauty is in the eye of the beholder”…
          They do nothing for me, more like cartoons….
          .They have no “ emotion” !

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            OldOzzie

            Chad, I would assume you are referring to the Beatles Series

            I have always liked Surrealism, especially Salvador Dali whose museum in Figures, I have been to, and Celartworks had previously done some similar style work based on the Dali Style that I liked

            as you correctly say OO..
            Remember … “Beauty is in the eye of the beholder”…

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    William Astley

    It is not ‘random’ internal earth systems. The sun is driving the earth’s cyclic climate change.

    If you look at how temperature has changed in the last 11,000 years. There are nine spikes in temperature of about 2.5C. And there is the Younger Dryas abrupt climate change event 5C drop in temperature at a time when summer sunlight energy was maximum at N65 and the drop in temperature was for 1200 years. And there is the 8,200 Before present abrupt cooling of 3C for 400 years.

    So earth’s climate has not been ‘stable’ during this interglacial. Something is forcing the earth’s climate.

    The past spikes in temperature planetary temperature ….. are exactly like the current spike in temperature. What is interesting is the past spikes in temperature were not caused changes in CO2, as there is no change in CO2 according to the Greenland Ice sheet analysis. In fact the Climate community assumes there is no short term CO2 changes possible.

    What did then cause the past spikes in temperature? And after every spike in temperature, the earth’s temperature drops. What is CAGW explanation for the past temperature changes?

    There is an urban legend (chaos theory) that the earth’s internal climate systems cause the planet to warm and cool for periods of 1500 years. The abrupt ‘climate’ changes (9 spikes in temperature, in the last 11,000 years and a cooling trend) in the current interglacial period (Holocene) have a periodicity of 1470 years plus/minus 500 years.

    Greenland ice temperature, last 11,000 years determined from ice core analysis, Richard Alley’s paper. William: As this graph indicates the Greenland Ice data shows that have been 9 warming and cooling periods in the last 11,000 years.
    http://www.climate4you.com/images/GISP2%20TemperatureSince10700%20BP%20with%20CO2%20from%20EPICA%20DomeC.gif

    This is Gerald Bond’s paper that analyzed ocean sediment data that also found the evidence of the spikes in temperature followed by abrupt cooling. The ocean sediment data supports the Greenland Ice sheet finding of temperature spikes.

    http://www.sciencemag.org/content/278/5341/1257
    A Pervasive Millennial-Scale Cycle in North Atlantic Holocene and Glacial Climates by Gerard Bond, William Showers, Maziet Cheseby, Rusty Lotti, Peter Almasi, Peter deMenocal, Paul Priore, Heidi Cullen, Irka Hajdas, Georges Bonani
    Evidence from North Atlantic deep sea cores reveals that abrupt shifts punctuated what is conventionally thought to have been a relatively stable Holocene climate. During each of these episodes, cool, ice-bearing waters from north of Iceland were advected as far south as the latitude of Britain.

    At about the same times, the atmospheric circulation above Greenland changed abruptly. Pacings of the Holocene events and of abrupt climate shifts during the last glaciation are statistically the same; together, they make up a series of climate shifts with a cyclicity close to 1470 plus/minus 500 years (William: Plus/minus in the case of the Bond cycle is 950 years, 1470 years, and 1950 year cycles).

    The Holocene events (William: The spikes in temperature followed by abrupt drops in temperature), therefore, appear to be the most recent manifestation of a pervasive millennial-scale climate cycle operating independently of the glacial-interglacial climate state.

    http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2003/2003GL017115.shtml
    Timing of abrupt climate change: A precise clock by Stefan Rahmstorf
    Many paleoclimatic data reveal a approx. 1,500 year cyclicity of unknown origin. A crucial question is how stable and regular this cycle is. An analysis of the GISP2 ice core record from Greenland reveals that abrupt climate events appear to be paced by a 1,470-year cycle with a period that is probably stable to within a few percent; with 95% confidence the period is maintained to better than 12% over at least 23 cycles.

    This highly precise clock points to an origin outside the Earth system (William: Solar changes cause the warming and cooling); oscillatory modes within the Earth system can be expected to be far more irregular in period.

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      Kalm Keith

      —hi William,

      I read it all, interesting. The graph of the nine warming and cooling periods is very detailed with perhaps the most important detail for us being the overall trend.

      It’s obvious that overall the temperature is falling and in the context of the Milancovic cycles this is just confirming the bigger picture.

      In a system as large as the Earth it’s perhaps not unexpected that either heating or cooling phases will be interrupted by adjustments to the established landscape.
      Massive ice buildup during the last 100,000 cycle which maybe took 70,000 years to deposit isn’t going to melt too quickly. From the turning point it probably took 15,000 years to get most of the job done and set us up for the interglacial. Then there’s the overlay of the effect of things falling from the sky like the Tunguska? impact and the bigger one 12,000 years back.

      In the last seven thousand years sea levels have fallen by up to six metres and this suggests cooling which the graph you linked to confirms.

      Regular small periodic movements of 1500 years are interesting but whatever they are we can’t expect their influence will stop the next Milancovic cycle moving forward.
      It’s gonna get cold eventually.
      🙂

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      el gordo

      ‘And there is the Younger Dryas abrupt climate change event 5C drop in temperature at a time when summer sunlight energy was maximum at N65 …’

      Which supports the asteroid theory, whereas the 8,200 K event might have been caused by some kind of internal dynamic.

      I’m convinced, in a philosophical sense, that the Younger Dryas was well placed to put a damper on the Holocene, giving humanity a chance to develop civilisation.

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    David Wojick

    My latest research:
    https://www.cfact.org/2021/03/21/it-takes-big-energy-to-back-up-wind-and-solar/

    It takes reliable generating capacity equal to peak demand plus reserve to make wind and solar work. That is a huge cost.

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      Hanrahan

      In Oz, the only reliable wind generation is along the South Coast with the Roaring Forties.

      Queensland is a big part of the country but could never generate wind power with an acceptable power factor.

      Check out this from windy.com, it is cherry picked but no way is it unusual. Our trades are from the SE, blowing parallel to the coast but to build off shore you would encroach on the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park, verboten for any industry.

      https://www.windy.com/?-27.761,139.043,5,i:pressure,m:ddiakfv

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    robert rosicka

    Latest predicted extinction due to climate change is the humble but tasty Clam , water will be too cold and sea levels too low or am I reading this study wrong ?

    https://climatechangedispatch.com/new-study-shows-clams-are-worse-off-in-todays-colder-waters-lower-sea-levels/?fbclid=IwAR0GakTqYbYua3A9pIUTasRLocwWYFeN4LKqu9G1wvaqro5qs8KENk8JEdA

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    Obama’s stealthy third term unfolds, per American Thinker

    The whole Joe senile-a-thon has given way to speculation about puppetmasters, same as happened in the enfeebled Soviet power void desperate to cling to power.

    In Joe’s case, who are they? Maybe hedge fund guys, or Jill Biden playing Edith Wilson, or the California political machine of Gavin Newsom, Nancy Pelosi, Kamala Harris, and that bunch, or moneybags like George Soros. But Obama is particularly salient in the mix, given his greed for power, desire to defend his sorry legacy, and actual experience in the job. If anyone is telling Joe what to do, it’s probably Obama, who, unlike Joe, still has popularity and charisma.

    Does this amount to an illegal third term for Obama? It definitely looks like it. And that’s creepy, given that not only was Joe Biden not elected freely and fairly, given his fraudulent election, but neither was Obama. Bad as Joe is, he got some votes, though, and Obama got none. Obama’s not allowed a third term, but we can recall how much he talked about one. Here’s another thing: he doesn’t even like Joe. His contempt for the dotard is legendary.

    It appears that despite all these factors, Obama seems to be taking charge. Joe’s out of commission, and this is sorry stuff. Just don’t call it “democracy.”

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    Tilba Tilba

    AD – can you please advise where I reply to your question?

    [You can’t unless you use the email function, and the host will release your comment. Or just add it on as a reply to this comment.]AD

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    Analitik

    I really do hope that the Extinction Rebellion protesters in Melbourne get hypothermia in the rain. Better than locking them in a comfy cell plus the amount of inconvenience they cause should make people consider just how stupid are those who support CAGW so strongly.

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    el gordo

    Hooray!

    ‘Boris Johnson has told Scott Morrison Australia was denied a speaking slot at a leaders’ climate ambition summit in December because his government had not set ambitious commitments to address the climate crisis.

    ‘In a sign of the growing international pressure over climate, the British prime minister also indicated he expected Australia to this year set a timeframe to meet net zero greenhouse gas emissions and increase its short-term commitments – steps the Morrison government continues to resist.’ (Guardian)

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