# Hmm. Odd pattern of Biden-votes fails an easy first test for Tax Fraud

### Red Flag anyone?

Tax auditors use Benfords Law to detect fraud. They look at the first digits of the income data and figure out how often the different digits pop up. If the deposits are random we’d see lots of one’s, and less of every other number in an ordered pattern.  Two would be the second most likely, three the third…. and so on down to nine. If there were lots of sevens, say, the Tax Auditor will start hunting there.

So if precincts call in ballot results there is a certain pattern we would expect them to arrive at, and that’s the pattern we see for every candidate, … except Joe R.Biden and Kamala D. Harris.

For some reason their results in Chicago, Milwalkee, and Allegheny were all clumpier, with 2, 3 or even 5 being among the most common for ballot results? Soon someone (or 500 people) will test out and see if Biden and Harris voters were clumpier in all districts or just the states that mattered to the Democrats.

You don’t need a Stats degree, just look at the graphs.

Credit to Smoking Gun of Democrat Cheating, by vbmoneyspender. Thanks to graphs by ‘cjph8914’ on Github. And explained in a twitter thread by StatsguyPhD  who notes the respective p-values in their 16 digit glory:

Biden 1.5076774999383611e-27  (note the ‘e’)
Trump 0.00048111250713426005
Statsguyphd sedately describes this difference as “extreme” and says “What is undeniable is that the first digit frequencies of Biden’s vote totals is extremely anomalous in comparison to Trump’s. “

So Joe Biden needs to come up with some convincing reasons about why these clumpy voter numbers group the way they do. Readers may want to help them below by dreaming up the best excuses they can think of to explain these patterns.

### Do Democrat voters in Chicago vote in class sizes of 30?

..

..

Or do these clusters leave the signature mark of the sizes of the packets handed out by the head honcho of vote riggers?

Statsguyphd posts all his code and thoughts here.

He adds: “The drawback to this analysis is that there is a Better test for Benford’s goodness of fit. It is the Watson version of the Cramer von Mises test (U2). You can read about why it is better here at
Lesperance, M., Reed, W. J., Stephens, M. A., Tsao, C., & Wilton, B. (2016). Assessing Conformance with Benford’s Law: Goodness-Of-Fit Tests and Simultaneous Confidence Intervals. PLoS ONE, 11(3). doi.org/10.1371/journa…”
8.6 out of 10 based on 87 ratings

### 155 comments to Hmm. Odd pattern of Biden-votes fails an easy first test for Tax Fraud

• #
David Wojick

I assume Allegheny PA is Allegheny County, which includes Pittsburgh. There is no PA town named Allegheny. There was an Allegheny City but Pittsburgh absorbed it about 100 years ago.

Trivia: Pittsburgh is where the Allegheny and Monongahela Rivers combine to make the Ohio River.

• #
Peter

Wrong! Allegheny County is beside Beaver and Washington counties.

• #
Peter

Right it is Allegheny County

• #
StefanL

Carpenter’s adage : Measure twice, cut once.

• #
me@home

Not a reply to David but a call from an old guy who thought he knew a little stats. I worked out that the curves on the graphs represent the expected distribution of something but of what is not obvious. Can Jo or someone please tell me what the bars represent.

• #
David-of-Cooyal-in-Oz

I’d not heard of it before either, but found this, which includes some history:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Benford's_law
Cheers
Dave B

• #
Pauly

Benford’s Law as explained in Wikipedia:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Benford's_law

In many sets of real-life numerical data, the leading digits are not equally distributed, but follow a frequency distribution curve where lower first digits (ie 1, 2, 3) have a much higher probability of occurring than higher first digits (ie 7, 8, 9). Testing data sets against Benford’s Law can provide an indication of “non-natural” numbers being introduced into a data set – an indicator of data manipulation or fraud.

A simple explanation of its use in detecting financial fraud can be found here:
https://www.acfeinsights.com/acfe-insights/what-is-benfords-law

• #

The size of the “votes” in packets called through to state HQ is my understanding.
From StatsGuyPhd:

12 – And here are the raw numbers (1 to 9):
Biden: [86, 35, 52, 69, 79, 62, 42, 28, 22]
Trump: [115, 85, 89, 57, 35, 36, 27, 16, 16]

• #
Kendra Spirit

is a great video detailing Benford’s Law and applying it to the election. Smells of fraud. Doesn’t prove it. But Tax attorneys routinely use Benford’s to refute/prove fraud. It is that reliable.

• #
Kalm Keith

A statistical analysis of this type can show something, but while in this setup there’s an interesting difference between OBiden and Trump, the actual basis of the things is a bit hidden.

What’s a “digit”.

Surely there’s a simpler way of doing this and the statistician does little credit to his (used in its original sense) work.

One of the numbers quoted for Trump had seventeen significant figures.

There is nothing like that possible in the real world.

KK

• #
Eric Worrall

What it shows is evidence of vote harvesting or worse.

What is being analysed is each vote registered, so you get vote for trump, vote for biden, vote for trump, vote for trump, vote for biden. So if you suddenly get 30 Biden votes in a row, its like tossing a coin and getting heads 30 times in a row.

There’s a possibility votes are being bundled and the bundles are being counted, but if this was the case Trump votes should show the same statistical anomaly as Biden votes.

• #
D. J. Hawkins

Eric,

…but if this was the case Trump votes should show the same statistical anomaly as Biden votes.

I think that would only be true if the votes were flipped, not if they were added.

• #
Mike Jonas

What does the Watson test say?

• #
czechlist

Any evidence of dim fraud is all but moot. The media will either repress it, under report it or will report it as part of a “vast right wing conspiracy”.
I am always amused that the media treats left wing attempted coups (Russia, Russia, Russia! Ukraine!) as plausible – even after they are refuted (“fake but believable” Mr. Rather?); But, any plausible evidence of a dim crime is a laughable conspiracy theory.
Be careful to proof read your posts because I heard today that if you type 2 i (ii) in a word it is a white supremacist “dog whistle”!
czechout

• #
Deano

I don’t understand statistical analysis. But given the amount of data which must be available from many elections with postal voting as a significant component, I would guess a comparison to similar elections would be interesting as human behavior is a factor here in how votes are cast under similar conditions.

• #
ATheoK

That the media fails to report it, is what is moot.

Most of the biased news services have destroyed their audience bases.
CNN is a prime example where they claim audiences over a million up to several million citizens.
What cnn fails to mention is that their audience is estimated, since cnn includes all of the airports that play cnn 24/7.
It is similarly interesting to note that cnn’s alleged audience didn’t decline with the COVID-19 elimination of people masses flying.

Multiple localities have higher voter participation than their entire history.
Quite a few have more votes than they have eligible voters.

Even democrats have asked how does a democrat candidate for president earn far higher levels of voter participation and votes than other statewide offices?

The only answer is, that when teams got together to make up tens of thousands of fraudulent mail-in ballots, they only filled the vote for one spot and left the rest empty.
e.g. Two states getting dumps of pure Biden mail-in ballots with zero votes for President Trump. Yes, those ‘extra’ mail-in ballots are what carried those states for Biden.

Nor are any of the alleged “news services” official.
The only official reporting document is the Federal Record published by the Government Printing office.

That Counties and States are conflicted by fraud is quite clear. Rampant fraud will force SCOTUS (Supreme Court Of The United States) to issue a stay within days to a couple of weeks.

There is a date that the election must be decided. Otherwise, an undecided election puts Pelosi in position of President.
Pelosi apparently is working two plans.
1) to install herself as President.
2) to install Biden then remove Biden via the 25th Amendment that elevates Harris to President.

Both plans are legitimately termed coups.

• #

We are surely getting way into conspiracy theory here?

• #
William Astley

What has been going on in the US, is not a ‘conspiracy’. There is evidence of an organized internal ‘political’ attack on the US/US institutions for at least the last 10 years. Almost every US media outlet been transformed into a propaganda outlet. The control of the internet. It is on and on and on. And is all anti-US/anti problem solving with the objective to create division/purposeless fights in the US.

A ‘conspiracy’ is something that is hidden.

Hillary Clinton, while working as the US secretary of state has a private server at her home. Said server is wiped clean and staff phones destroyed, with support from the FBI to hide what was discussed on said server from freedom of information requests. Big time, Pay for play at the highest level of the US government to fund Dem activities.

This evidence that the US election fixers were overconfident and that they may have made a fatal logical mistake.

If you cheat and get caught, there will/could be consequences.

In November 11, 2019 the Department of Homeland Security announced it would partner with… to monitor the US 2020 election using a sophisticated system of watermarks that I would assume would catch and quantify how massive the US 2020 ballot destruction and creation was.

https://thehill.com/policy/cybersecurity/471577-dhs-cyber-agency-invests-in-election-auditing-tool-to-secure-2020

• #
Deano

Parallel to the control of communications is ‘PC’. The whole design of ‘political correctness’ is to infuriate people and turn them against each other with its in-yer-face double standards and refusal to explain. Divide and conquer.

• #
PeterS

Me thinks it’s getting too muddy and too hard to figure out the truth regarding the US elections. I say let the Democrats have their victory if the votes fall their way as it appears, and see if the public like them or not at the next election. I said something similar about our last federal election whereby if Shorten’s ALP had won I said good luck peoples for electing his party; something along the line of “eat your own vomit”. If on the other hand the rumour about Trump’s “sting” operation is true then go for it, it would be a very welcome event to see the cockroaches (the left) scurry away with some of them squashed (sent to prison). Time will tell but it is fast running out and Trump better have that ace up his sleeve or else he is very likely a goner, unfortunately.

• #
Gary Simpson

It is patently obvious from the coverage of this ‘election’, that nobody voted for Biden – it was only ever a vote against Trump. You only need to compare the images of 30,000+ people at Trump’s rallies, queuing for hours in freezing conditions to see him, to those of Biden’s ‘rallies’ where he is almost the only one there and even then not ALL there. Strange how all of the ‘mistakes’ in counting ballots only ever go one way.

• #
RexAlan

“Strange how all of the ‘mistakes’ in counting ballots only ever go one way”.

Same as the temperature record then with all the adjustments only going one way, IE to cool the past.

• #
Analitik

The same people and/or organisations are likely to be involved in manufacturing both result sets.

• #
PeterS

Don’t get me wrong. I much prefer Trump to be President, but if the voter fraud is not exposed and proven somehow then all he is doing is blowing hot air. If he can’t prove it then he should just walk away and let Biden show how bad a President he would make to the people.

• #
Dave in the States

The damage the Dems can do over the next 4 years is incalculable. From the Paris Accord, to \$13/gal gas, to packing the courts, to turning the Deep State loose, to socialism, to gun control, to famine induced by meddling in and/or halting free markets, to civil war, to nuclear war. It is almost impossible to undo any of these things.

Additionally, they will leave nothing to chance in four years. 2016 might have been the last legitimate US election in history.

• #

Why is it incumbent on Trump to prove fraud, when the Dems have prevented observers?

It’s incumbent on them to prove votes are legit after breaching basic rules and conventions.

Trump should fight this to the end, like the Union of the States of America depends on it. And if nerdy blogger crowds can help translate data that shows something is fishy or dubious, then we can help by boiling these issues down to the ones that matter most.

• #
Binny Pegler

It’s not the ballots they need to worry about, they’re untraceable (or should be) – It the envelopes the ballots came in, they should have the name and signature of the registered voter. That’s what needs to be double checked. Has anyone thought to keep them – or are they now ash? If they can’t match those envelopes with registered voters there’s a problem. Also the total number of votes must tally with the number of valid envelopes and the number of people voted on the day.

• #
John in Oz

I heard recently that Josef Stalin said “It does not matter who or how many vote, It only matters who counts the votes’ (or words to that effect).

Seems the Dems learned from that great democratic leader /sarc

• #

He may not have said those words exactly but he certainly would have agreed with them.

Here are some other relevant quotes.

“There’s more to an election than mere votin’, my boy, for as an eminent American once said: ‘I care not who casts the votes of a nation if they’ll let me make the count.‘” — from Uncle Henry, a novel by George Creel, 1922.

“It’s not the voting that’s democracy, it’s the counting, Archie says.” — from Jumpers, a play by Tom Stoppard, 1972.

“Indeed, you won the elections, but I won the count.” — Nicaraguan dictator Anastasio Somoza (1896-1956), Guardian (London), 17 June 1977.

• #
RossP

Do not worry, President Trump, as usual, seems to miles ahead of the Dems and the swamp. All the ballots have had a high tech “coded watermark” (to use terminology we all understand). I watched a video yesterday about it but I had reservations on its validity but here is another explanation.

Here is the video I watched yesterday. I hope the link works.

• #
RossP

I forgot to add this link—new important regulation around elections introduced in 2017

Also it should be noted that what is going in Pennsylvania since election day is illegal. The Constitution says any changes to election regulations, in any state, must be passed by the State Legislature. I think I’m correct in saying the changes to allow votes being received up to 3 days later, not worrying about post mark dates etc. were bought in by the Governor/AG unilaterally. There has actually a Supreme Court case about this issue, in the past.(ie there is precedent).

• #
RossP

I got the explanation of the PA situation a little wrong (what is going on is still illegal).

Steve Turley explains it a lot better –just skip the ads at the start.

• #
PeterS

I do hope it’s all true but thus far it’s just an unproven conspiracy theory. Time will tell. If Biden ends up being President and Trump doesn’t expose the fraud using his so called “sting” operation then there are two possibilities. The operation is fake or he wants to allow Biden to become President for some reason. We shall see.

• #

Peter, it’s not a “conspiracy theory” that there are videos of observers not being let in.

What are they hiding?

Fraud is usually a conspiracy.
But the left love to toss “conspiracy theory” as a namecalling shield against further investigation. Don’t buy in. Discuss the evidence.

• #

Benford’s Law, also known as the Newcomb–Benford Law can be used to detect all sorts of fake data not just for financial or voting data. It would be interesting to see it apply to faked “historical” temperature data after it has been “homogenised” by BoM, NOAA, NASA etc..

Benford’s law is real and it works and has been accepted as evidence in courts for those who don’t know about this fascinating law.

• #
Lucky

Disagree- it depends on if ordinal or cardinal numbers.
One is numbers for counting, the other is for ID where for example the alphabet would do as well.
Temperatures have a central point eg 22.7C, ballot numbers may be assumed to start from 1 and go on to 2 then up.

• #
Geoffrey Williams

I just want to see the election results as honest and verifiable and then I will accept whoever is elected by the American people. But that may be asking too much for I do believe that it is in the nature of some people to cheat and rig ballots in order to elect their preferred candidate. And for sure there has been cheating going on in this US election; it is the nature of the beast.
Ultimately we may have to accept the result whatever it is and I do not intend to lose any sleep over it.
One just hopes that the future of world politics and international relationships can improve and become more friendly and peacefull. But with the the election Joe Biden and the Democrats I am not optimistic about this.
GeoffW

• #
William

While he didn’t rig ballots, Malcolm Turnbull was brilliant at winning by undermining, leaking, lying and taking the credit for others’ achievements to backstab his way to the leadership.

• #
Kalm Keith

O’Biden doesn’t have those skills so he has to use UPS and “voters” from the Marble Forest.

• #

We knew in advance the huge percentage of mail in ballots, many delivered to places where voters used to live, would lead to more than usual election fraud. With the mail in ballots, the only way to find fraud would be for huge teams of handwriting experts to check ballots for months. That will never happen.

But doing nothing will mean more fraud in the next election. The always dishonest Democrats want EVERY vote counted, which is like saying they like election fraud. The honest Republicans want every legal vote counted. I want people to be punished for fraud.

It seems like Democrats get away with everything in the US. I wrote a summary of the election on my politics blog today. I’m a libertarian, not a Republican or Democrat, so I an biased against both Republicans and Democrats !

“Software ‘Glitch’ In Michigan Erroneously Gave 1000s Of Trump Votes to Biden:Votes To Biden; Up To 47 Counties Compromised
Fri, 11/06/2020 – 15:40

Software used to tabulate votes cast in 47 Michigan counties erroneously gave 6,000 votes to Joe Biden in Anterim County, according to state GOP Chairwoman Laura Cox.

“In Antrim County, ballots were counted for Democrats that were meant for Republicans, causing a 6,000 vote swing against our candidates. The county clerk came forward and said ‘tabulating software glitched and caused a miscalculation of the vote.’ Since then, we have now discovered the 47 counties used the same software in the same capacity,” she said, adding “Antrim County had to hand count all of the ballots, and these counties that used the software need to closely examine their results for similar discrepancies.”

Of note, Trump won Antrim County in 2016 with 62% of the vote vs. 33% for Hillary Clinton.

One Michigan county clerk caught a glitch in tabulation software so they hand counted votes and found the glitch caused 6,000 votes to go to Biden + Democrats that were meant for Trump and Republicans. 47 MI counties used this software. All must check now! pic.twitter.com/21AXyJZDZi

— Robby Starbuck (@robbystarbuck) November 6, 2020
Antrim county had roughly 18k voters. 6k of those were initially in error?

33% skew?

Multiplied by 47 other counties?

Good God.

— Conservative Corona Graduate (@ExBigRight) November 6, 2020

According to the Detroit Free Press, officials are investigating the error

• #
RossP

Richard
I remember reading about the electronic voting machines during the 2016 election. I was amazed to find they are not all owned by the Federal Govt. or the State Govts. In some cases the State owns them but in many cases they are privately owned (including by Soros owned companies). On top of that the software used, is not all the same and can be the propriety property of the machine owner –ie. in some cases privately owned.
I think they have as much room for “games” as the mail-in voting.

• #
RossP

Further to Richard’s link to the Antrim County software glitch. There are number states using the same software

If you scroll down there is a map showing the states using it —MI, NY, NJ, IL, GA, CA, NV, UT , CO , AZ , NM & AL

• #

Chairman of Smartmatics voting machines, Mark Malloch-Brown, sits on George Soros’ Open Society Foundation Global Board.
https://apnews.com/article/8607371032 Coincidence? Not. Soros Funding, ref those leaked Soros Files, directed to manipulating Federal elections. Soros poured hundreds of millions of dollars into often secret efforts to change electoral laws, to fuel litigation, to attack electoral integrity measures, such as voter ID, and to push public narratives about voter fraud as myth.

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• #
Jojodogfacedboy

Your program must be very good as they now have found a “software glitch” that has accidentally sent 6,000 votes per county to Biden…

How many other Democratic States use this same program?

• #
Graeme P.

I have made a number of attempts to highlight voting inconsistencies on comment threads in The Australian and none of them have made it past moderation. Time to cancel my subscription.

• #
Matty

I cancelled mine for similar reasons a while ago. It’s not the common sense publication it once was. To get past moderation now you are generally dealing with some juvenile graduate.

In Pennsylvania – DT leading by nearly 700,000 votes and now trailing? Has this ever happened…..anywhere….and I mean legitimately?

• #

Matty
Even with an honest election, the unprecedented number of absentee ballots in 2020 were expected to cause large cities run by Democrats to be late turning in their vote counts.

So it is not surprising that lots of Biden urban votes were not counted until after election day.

That does not make them illegal votes … but … the longer the vote counters take, the more time is available for fraud, and the more knowledge is available for how much fraud would be needed to change the election results.

• #
Analitik

It does make them illegal in Pennsylvania if the change in the limit for counting votes (from 8pm on election night to 3 days later) was through an unconstitutional alteration of the law.

See post 7.1.1 (I also read this elsewhere but RossP posted it here first)

• #
Analitik

Sorry,that should have been “the limit for receiving votes”, not counting them

• #
Louise

I cancelled my subscription to the Australian a couple of weeks back due to censorship of the Hunter laptop story. Could not get a comment past moderator for 5 days. Even Citing official docs censored. I noted some other commentators who were well informed and influential on story threads also ‘gone’ and not seeming to comment.

Validation then it wasn’t just me that’s had enough!

• #
Louise

[Duplicate]

• #
Brenda Spence

I had two comments rejected a couple of days ago so I did a “please explain” and they are now accepted! But I have canvelled anyway, very little coverage of the Biden laptop and now the same with voter fraud. Used to be a good paper.

• #
Graeme P.

• #
GD

It’s not the common sense publication it once was.

Sad to see that the featured articles about the US election are by Paul Kelly, Peter Van Onselen, Troy Bramston, Cameron Stewart, and Greg Sheridan; all of whom are anti-Trump and pro-Biden.

• #
glen Michel

My online version has come up for renewal. I deleted from my tablet. Will not buy the printed version either.Sick of Kelly and his sophistry. Van Onselen and Bramston pathetic. The former declared my position on same- sex marriage as “troglodyte”. He wouldn’t want to say it to my face.

• #
WokeBuster

Unfortunately these days “mostly not fraud” will always trump “fraud”

• #
Graeme P.

You may be on to something there, I mean, it was a “mostly honest” election.

• #
Serp

… and mostly peaceful demonstrations preceding the election.

• #
Steve of Cornubia

Hi Jo. You say that this is an other thing that Biden will have to explain. Frankly, I doubt he will have to explain anything, because none of the legal challenges will progress to the point where Biden has to address these matters in anything approaching a ‘sworn in’ situation.

I predict that most of Trump’s challenges will be dismissed early. Those that progress beyond the infant stage will be defeated by a lack of cooperation from those who know what went on – they will simply continue to lie.

Even if a challenge makes it to the Supreme Court of America, it will be defeated for the same reasons and, along the way, anybody supporting Trump’s position will suffer the combined might of the Left and their allies in the MSM, FBI etc. Some might get sent to gaol for their sins.

No, I’m afraid Trump has lost. The Left and the Elite Socialists have now constructed such a rigged system that only an actual armed revolution can stop it, not that I’m wishing for that.

• #
• #
Peter

Despite Biden likely to have more of the late votes, high nineties is is not credible. In early counting Biden got a very high percentage in Alachua Florida county, Gainesville is a college town centered on the 36,000-student University of Florida. The university is the area’s largest employer, and the economic picture, recently mixed, has recovered well and the area is now one of the strongest and most diverse economies in the state. The university has made Gainesville a center for the arts, particularly the performing arts, and the city has excellent arts venues.

With 100% of votes counted Biden is back to 62.9%. Always expected to win but no big dumps at the end! If there was fraud it was focussed on other states/counties where it would not be so obvious.

These vote dumps with reported 90+% support for Biden seem highly suspect and there has been no blue wave. Best site for numbers is here

• #

It is frightening to think what a United states of America led by a aged, senile, confused Biden and a fanatical hard-line Harris would be like. China, Iran, Russia and North Korea must be licking their lips.

• #
OriginalSteve

He wont be leader for long…they likely will use the 25th to put Harris in.

And not long after Harris goes on, the removal of the 1st and 2nd Amendments will start.

• #
Jojodogfacedboy

I suspect she will be like a Hillary Clinton on steroids in the policies that she will impose on the world…

• #
OriginalSteve

Yup…socialists hate gun ownership….and freedom of speech…means they can be held accountable…..

And everyobe who values free speech needs to get off Farcebook, Twerp and Yooftube and get onto conservative frendly spaces like Gab.com.

The main social media platforms are just left wing cesspools now.

• #
Binny Pegler

Biden is just the face. His handlers chose him because he has a long history of ‘small target’ ‘do nothing’ politics. They will only trot him out to read off the teleprompter every so often – even if it requires a dozen takes each time, they can cut and splice. Most importantly he won’t give them any trouble.

• #
Travis T. Jones

Democrats had four years to set up the rigging of the vote.
Trump had 4 years to set the trap to catch them at a game they have playing for years and are insane enough to think they can do it again.
Watch the courts.
Note there are only democrat governed states that are in dispute.

• #
Murray Shaw

GA is a Republican State!

• #
Harves

Surely it is just a coincidence that in big Dem cities that counted early, Biden scored about 65-75% of the postal vote. Yet in the big Dem cities that counted late and halted counting, Biden amazingly scored around 90% in postals?

• #
OriginalSteve

There was an infamous local council in one of our major cities here which was left leaning, when thye held council electins the quote was “vote early and often”. Dead people used to come back to life as well, just to vote….very civic minded.

Sounds like the Left never chnages….its so appealing it has to cheat to win.

But the US has a major problem – lets assume for a moment Ch*na may have some leverage over Sleepy Joe , or maybe they just have a frequent flyer program….who knows….if only those laptops could speak…but if leverage existed, wouldnt the US effectively be compromised in terms of national security? Or just a Chinese vassal state?

But wait…theres more….now it appears we have Chin*se censors :

“There are at least half a dozen “Chinese nationals who are working on censorship,” a former Facebook insider told me last week. “So at some point, they [Facebook bosses] thought, ‘Hey, we’re going to get them H-1B visas so they can do this work.’ ”

“The insider shared an internal directory of the team that does much of this work. It’s called Hate-Speech Engineering (George Orwell, call your office), and most of its members are based at Facebook’s offices in Seattle. Many have Ph.D.s, and their work is extremely complex, involving machine learning — teaching “computers how to learn and act without being explicitly programmed,” as the techy website DeepAI.org puts it.

• #
AbysmalSpectator

I went and had a look at the underlying data for Milwaukee. The ward sizes are small: 500 to 1500 voters approximately. Benford’s law won’t be applicable in this case so, sadly, nothing to see here. I was excited for a moment 🙁 In fact, given the preponderance of Democrat voters in those wards and the distribution of ward sizes the ward count leading figures are about what one would expect.

Here’s the original data for Milwaukee used in the analysis. Expand Federal totals by ward and you’ll see what I mean.

https://county.milwaukee.gov/EN/County-Clerk/Off-Nav/Election-Results/Election-Results-Fall-2020

• #
AbysmalSpectator

A little extra information on why Benford’s Law doesn’t apply. In general, for it to apply, the data has to span several orders of magnitude (e.g. someone’s expenses claims). Given that the largest and smallest ward sizes differ by about a factor of three (and the proportion of votes for a Dem candidate might range between, say 20% and 80%) the basic assumptions just won’t be satisfied.

See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Benford%27s_law for further explanation and examples.

• #
HelloMNIIM

The data could be examined and the range size mathematically transformed to fit the requirements for using Benford’s law

• #
Forrest Gardener

Two of the more interesting questions for me are whether recounts are an entitlement in all states and which states permit ballot harvesting.

Legal ballot harvesting potentially nullifies any challenge on the basis of the clumps of 30 votes arriving in the article. It would be perfectly legal for a team of harvesters to be assigned targets of harvesting 30 ballots at a time and then delivering them for counting.

Curing of invalid postal votes would work the same way in states which permit that process. I believe that a list of who voted and which votes were invalid votes is publicly available information.

There are many glaring deficiencies such as the above in electoral processes in many states that a well organized political party could quite lawfully drive a proverbial truck full of ballots through the gaps.

If only one side was awake and only one side was exploiting the gaps then the loser deserves what they got.

Still, as I’ve said elsewhere it is a very sad situation where a country cannot trust the outcome of an election.

• #

I am very disappointed that so many commentators are not prepared to entertain the possibility of voter fraud. The leading journalists at the Australian Newspaper top my list.
Are they so afraid that there is even a remote possibility that the world’s leading democracy, the land of the free and home of the brave, just may have some character flaws. It needs someone like Trump, with all his brashness and unabashed love of his country to speak up and confront the issue head on.
Regardless of his motivation, he has thrown down the gauntlet. Does his country have the maturity to prove him wrong or will they just attack his character and roll over and go back to sleep.

• #
RossP

What I find disturbing about people like the writers in The Australian is that their hatred of Trump blinds them to what Biden and his crew are proposing for the USA. Are they so desperate to see the back of Trump that they are prepared to see the USA dragged down by socialism, the Green New deal etc.?

Here is what the “nice” Biden/Democrat people are saying :

https://theconservativetreehouse.com/2020/11/06/it-begins-representative-ocasio-cortez-requests-immediate-enemies-list-for-targeting-after-biden-takes-office/

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nb

Indeed. The concept of assessing a politician according to policy and facts appears to have vanished. Is this the way to cope with the electronic information age?

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Howie from Indiana

I hope the Republicans make China Joe’s life as miserable as the Democrats have done to Trump for the past four years. There is a possibility that the House will flip in two years so Republicans could have a majority in both the House and Senate I predict that Americans will tire of China Joe’s policies fairly quickly. It would be ironic that Biden could be the first American president to be impeached and convicted.

• #

The Australian Newspaper has today featured former N.S.W Premier, Bob Carr with perhaps the strongest lefty diatribe against conservatism that they have ever published. When listing his credits they conveniently forgot about his connection to the Australia-Chine friendship Society. For me this speaks volumes for where the commentariat is heading.
The leaders of Western Civilisation institutions have been asleep at the wheel for way to long.
Trust is a long lost virtue but no one wants to admit to it.

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OriginalSteve

When it all goes bang ( and it will, people will be dragge dout of cars…Victoristan has already started…) then people will wake up.

But as they say, you Covid/torjan horse your way into socialism, but may have to shoot your way out of it….

Australians have never had to fight for thier freedoms before, but the US did but the left is so good at being a virus they infect everything eventually killing the host.

Victoria was the test run.

My prediction is another engineered virus will be released that will cause the communist leadership to collapse democracy completely and start disappearing people. Communists never chnage, they just wear suits now.

So Australians will get the most awful ride of their lives, and learn the hard way what its like to lose their freedom. As its a systemic infection, I suspect once we have labor federal govt, the lever will be pulled, the RNA vaccine to destroy peoples DNA will be issued, lockdowns will become the norm, people will be tracked and monitored super closely ( 5G is so convenient for that ) and hell on earth will begin…..

Ironically, Christians heve been expecting the rise of soemthing like this for millenia. That fact its happening globally is unique and IMHO points to the rise of the antichrist figure….

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MP

Australians had to defend their country from invasion in WW2.
Thanks to their effort and the US of A we are chatting here today.

We are approaching the time where everyone will have to choose whether to die on their feet or live on their knees.
Sadly I know what Australia will choose.

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Kalm Keith

Ignore the red. Was meant to be green.

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el gordo

‘ … points to the rise of the antichrist figure….’

Premier Xi lacks supernatural powers, so I’m thinking someone off-planet is the antichrist.

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MP

Yours are already down to the bone.
Looking up lovingly into Slomos eyes.

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Louise

4 of us on this site have recently cancelled subscriptions to The Australian. I wonder how many more they’re losing? I gave them ‘feedback’ that they were acting little different to other left media + the censorship really ticked me off. I do now have a subscription to The Spectator. Was thinking about Sky – I do like Chris Kenny, Rowan Dean, Rita Panahi, Peta Credlin and Paul Murray. The rest, not so much.

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Kalm Keith

I’m not a subscriber but buy the Australian most days. After the tragic articles this weekend about the U.S. Election I will stop buying it.

The final straw was the conceited ramble by Robert Carr.

Enough.

KK

• #

Here’s how Benford’s law works as explained by a forensic accountant, plus a surprise example!

https://youtu.be/7uhAn19V1EY

Benford’s law on Wikipedia:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Benford%27s_law

• #
Brenda Spence

Wooohoo, Tucker Carlson is on fire today! Brilliant monologue. Will try to put up a link.

• #

Jo, your website is acting strangely and sometimes doesn’t load with a 500 error message like server unavailable and is otherwise very slow to reload.

It’s been doing this for at least 24 hrs. Gee Aye made a comment to this effect yesterday, a rare example of me agreeing with he/she/it.

Is your site possibly under attack by the useful idiot servants of the Billionaire Socialists?

[Sorry for the issues David but Jo has made a mention in “Unthreaded” about the massive increase in traffic to the site over the last few days causing some problems . We are also experiencing difficulties so you’re not alone .]AD

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RossP

I think Jo’s comment about 400% increase in traffic would have a lot to do with it, David. (see the header for the tread below)

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Small Footprint

400%? who committed that mathematical heresy?

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Graeme No.3

Probably a high school mathematics teacher.
And before anyone gets upset I know of one who claimed something had 117.xxxx% content. When challenged he corrected that to 105.xxxx%.
The 4 decimal places were confirmation in his mind that he was accurate, despite the fact that it was spurious, nay impossible accuracy. He would have made a good Climate “Scientist”.

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R2Dtoo

I have to use my duck-duck-go to get this site to load. If I use google I get a website for sale message – repeatedly.

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Steve of Cornubia

If you’re wondering just how soviet the USA will become should Biden and Harris be confirmed, look up the newly-announced ‘Trump Accountability Project’.

Scary stuff if it actually comes together. Just a few years ago, I would have said this stuff is too crazy even for Hollywood.

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DonT

Can’t access your page without using VPN as of yesterday. Obviously the Australian service providers have increased the censoring. Sad. I’ve been reading your excellent blog for several years now. Keep up the good work.

• #

Email coming from me Don. First I’ve heard of this?

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Tezza

I’ve no doubt there was some fraud, just from the improbabilities of late vote counts. But I’d advocate caution about resting any argument on Benford’s Law.

It’s application to elections seems to have been tested pretty thoughtfully in this review from a few years back: Deckert, Joseph, et al. “Benford’s Law and the Detection of Election Fraud.” Political Analysis, vol. 19, no. 3, 2011, pp. 245–268. JSTOR, http://www.jstor.org/stable/23011436. Accessed 7 Nov. 2020.

The main take-out from that article follows:

“Benford’s Law is problematical at best as a forensic tool when applied to elections. Looking at simulations designed to model both fair and fraudulent contests as well as data drawn from elections we know, on the basis of other investigations, were either permeated by fraud or unlikely to have experienced any measurable malfeasance, we find that conformity with and deviations from Benford’s Law follow no pattern. It is not simply that the Law occasionally judges a fraudulent election fair or a fair election fraudulent. Its “success rate” either way is essentially equivalent to a toss of a coin, thereby rendering it problematical at best as a forensic tool and wholly misleading at worst.”

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Gee aye

It is now confirmed; you guys are officially nuts.

• #

By all means Gee, wait for your next instructions from your Billionaire Socialist masters.

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Gee aye

Was that meant to discredit me or reaffirm what I wrote?

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glen Michel

Just reaffirming your lightweight comments. Quick check: sun rises in the West and sets in the East.

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Gee aye

If you say so

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Analitik

Thank you for your detailed refutation of the article. Well up to your usual standard for thoroughness and clarity

• #

If Biden is “elected” there will be no hope in future of ever again electing a conservative and pro-American president because the Left will throw open the borders and allow illegals to live in the US and vote. Even more so than Obama did.

• #

Plus election fraud (always in favour of the Left) will be even more widespread than it is now.

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Kevin a

One Michigan county clerk caught a glitch in tabulation software so they hand counted votes and found the glitch caused 6,000 votes to go to Biden + Democrats that were meant for Trump and Republicans. 47 MI counties used this software. All must check now!

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Stephen @Aus

A Tax Fraud test you say Jo… that calls for #TheFake….Donald Trump, tax fraud extraordinare!! I understand DT is already planning to stand again in 2024 with the slogan #MAMA (“Make America Mine Again”… Tim Ferguson #FakeNews you can Trust), that is, sans White House medical facilities he doesn’t succomb to COVID-19 re-infection (http://joannenova.com.au/2020/08/reinfection-and-t-cell-immunity-does-the-common-cold-give-us-protection-against-coronavirus/).
Jo, I find your writings on the climate change fraud and COVID-19 exceptional but supporting a man responsible for the deaths of more Americans than the Vietkong in such an exceptionally shout period of time unfathomable!

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Analitik

Please explain how Trump is responsible for the CoViD-19 deaths across the US

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Kalm Keith

Repeat this five times: Cuomo.

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Stephen @Aus

A Tax Fraud test you say Jo… that calls for #TheFake….Donald Trump, tax fraud extraordinare!! I understand DT is already planning to stand again in 2024 with the slogan #MAMA (“Make America Mine Again”… Tim Ferguson #FakeNews you can Trust), that is, sans White House medical facilities he doesn’t succomb to COVID-19 re-infection (http://joannenova.com.au/2020/08/reinfection-and-t-cell-immunity-does-the-common-cold-give-us-protection-against-coronavirus/).
Jo, I find your writings on the climate change fraud and COVID-19 exceptional but supporting a man responsible for the deaths of more Americans than the Vietkong in such an exceptionally short period of time unfathomable!

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Curious George

Remember he also killed and keeps killing Australians, French, Germans, Italians, Britons, Irish, Swedes, and many others 🙂

• #
Another Ian

“John Yoo: Trump-Biden presidential race could be decided by Pennsylvania case before Supreme Court”

https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/trump-biden-election-supreme-court-john-yoo

Via Tip of the Spear

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TedM

Captured evidence of vote switching. In 560 vote blocks. You will need to pay attention.

https://youtu.be/ficae6x1Q5A

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Brenda Spence

That was most interesting! Pretty technical butshows how the votecan be corrupted without being obvious. Just hope this gets to Trump and Co intime.

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Brenda Spence

That was most interesting! Pretty technical butshows how the votecan be corrupted without being obvious. Just hope this gets to Trump and Co in time.

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Another Ian

“This evening we have a special song to remind all Democrats of the noble country and traditions their party is destroying.”

• #
Another Ian

That is an interesting thought!

“https://www.spiked-online.com/2020/11/06/the-real-resistance/

Reminder that Donald John Trump leads the first genuine workers’ and peasants’ revolution that the United States has ever seen—not to say the western world—and the Biden gang have come nowhere close to crushing it.”

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Another Ian

https://monsterhunternation.com/2020/11/05/the-2020-election-fuckery-is-afoot/

“I am more offended by how ham fisted, clumsy, and audacious the fraud to elect him is than the idea of Joe Biden being president. I think Joe Biden is a corrupt idiot, however, I think America would survive him like we’ve survived previous idiot administrations. However, what is potentially fatal for America is half the populace believing that their elections are hopelessly rigged and they’re eternally fucked. And now, however this shakes out in court, that’s exactly what half the country is going to think.

People are pissed off, and rightfully so.

Before I became a novelist I was an accountant. In auditing you look for red flags. That’s weird bits in the data that suggest something shifty is going on. You flag those weird things so you can delve into them further. One flag doesn’t necessarily mean there’s fraud. Weird things happen. A few flags mean stupidity or dishonesty. But a giant pile of red flags means that there’s bad shit going on and people should be in jail.

Except for in politics, where apparently all you have to do to dismiss a bunch of red flag is be a democrat and mumble something about “fascist voter suppression” then you can do all sorts of blatant crime and get off.”

• #
Another Ian

“The Election Fallacy of the “Intellectual Conservatives” – Beltway Republicans are Decepticons… ”

https://theconservativetreehouse.com/2020/11/06/the-election-fallacy-of-the-intellectual-conservatives-beltway-republicans-are-decepticons/

• #
UK-Weather Lass

What the Democrats have done to manipulate this Presidential Election can be used against them over the next four years.

Many anti-consensus people are beginning to break the mantra over SARS-CoV-2 in the UK and Johnson, Whitty and Vallance have been found out. Biden and Harris will have a pretty tough and miserable four years in office if the Republicans win control of the Senate. It is not going to be pretty for them or the USA.

Ill-gotten gains are seldom enjoyed, and Trump has a couple of months to cause major havoc even if he has to concede defeat. Biden (and his family) may end up wishing he had never stood for office.

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• #
Gerry

The Democrats won’t be able to stop the slide by the blacks and Hispanics to the Republicans ….if the Republicans keep moving forward with the young stars …

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• #
tom0mason

Oops forgot the [/sarc]

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CHRIS

Weather Lass makes a good point. It looks like the Democrats won’t get Senate Control. Now, if they try to stack the Supreme Court by simply expanding it and creating a Democrat majority, then they have shot themselves in the foot. This blatant abuse of power will (I hope) not be forgotten by the US voters in 2024. If not, then I give upon Democracy.

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The Depraved and MOST Deplorable (and still asleep) Vlad the Impaler

I think you have to remember that half the population (Demoncrats) is below 100 on the IQ scale. And, as I posted once at Anthony’s, we have to remember this:

100% of the time, those who have passed away vote for the Demoncrat candidate in an election.

Now, persons who are deceased, are, by definition, brain-dead.

So all brain-dead people who vote, vote Demoncrat. That’s who Demoncrats appeal to, is the brain-dead.

While I understand your statement to the effect that you hope this will, ‘not be forgotten by the US voters in 2024,’ I think I can confidently state that such a sentiment will not matter to the brain-dead Demoncrat voter; indeed, I suspect they will embrace it.

And, I would hasten to add, that the US is NOT a Democracy. It is very easy to confuse the system that should exist, but sadly, does not exist any longer. The US was established as a republic, that is, it is governed by the rule of law, not the rule of the majority. I think the main breakaway from being a republic started not long after Ronald Reagen left office. The idea of a republic had been in decline since the Depression era, but nosedived and turned into a homesick manhole cover during or after the tenure of one William Jefferson C. The Biden-Pelosi-Soros radical Communist wing of the Demoncrat Party has just about reached the conclusion of the ‘long march through the institutions’ that we were warned about.

Too many here have said that you vote your way into Socialism (totalitarianism), but have to shoot your way out of it. I’m with you CHRIS, if it is going to take a Civil War to resolve this, then let it begin, but I’m hoping and praying it does not come down to that.

May the Good Lord Bless and Keep us all,

• #
William Astley

Civil war is not law and order, it is chaos anti-civilization. Civil war is a brainless, failure. There is a peaceful way out.

Evil plans are stopped if and when the evil plan goes over the top. By going over the top, the evil plan inadvertently, gives power/legitimacy to those who come to stop the evil plan and fix the US system.

There is piles and piles of evidence that the Dems/Chinese have sabotaged the US political system and taken over the media companies to incapacitate the US and advance the Chinese plan to take over the world, not to help the US.

Fake issues like open borders, and CAGW kill countries … the world is not a better place when money is spent/wasted on fake solutions to fight infinitely expensive fake problems.

The Dems/Chinese have given the US a forced way out to address the US political system failure.

If HCQ is a cure for covid and if it is a fact, there other cheap cures, for covid… … fixing the covid problem in the US and the world, punishing those responsible for covid lies, would get immediate support for the new temporary US non-political governing body.

• #

I thought it was only democrats that wanted violence to resolve things. Are you a democrat Vlad?

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The Depraved and MOST Deplorable (and still asleep) Vlad the Impaler

Mr./Ms./Gender-neutral Gee Aye:

No where in my post did I say, “I want a Civil War.” I stated, ‘ … if it is going to take a Civil War to resolve this … ‘. The conditional, ‘if’, qualifies this as a hypothetical.

To my knowledge, no sane person seeks violence (speaks well to what those various groups such as ‘Antifa’ and other rioters, whose mantra of B.L.M. meant, ‘Burn, Loot, Murder’, stand for, doesn’t it Mr./Ms./Non-Binary-gender-identification-Gee-Aye). I do know that there have incitements (by just one side, M/M/NBGIGA) to start such a war, and it is possible that it is coming to a head. While I hope not, there may not be another way to resolve the divide that the Demoncrats have maliciously emplaced, forcing their Totalitarian views on those who just want to live their lives in peace, and prosperity, and without Big Brother investigating everything they do.

Please lose the psychological projection, M/M/NBGIGA; your posts tend to be rife with it.

Regards,

• #

Two runoff elections in Georgia with senators means the Dems still migth get the Senate. Sorry to be the bearer of bad news.

If it was a fair election I’d say “no worries”.Do I think it will be fair? Nah. The Dems will do everything to get the Senate.

• #

Talk about clutching at straws. If you are going to try and apply a so-called mathematical law, it helps if you understand the basis of that law first. Not many on this site appear to.

If you have any set of random numbers they will NOT obey Benford’s Law. For example, consider all the integer numbers below one million. There will be 111,111 starting with a 1, 111,111 starting with a 2, 111,111 starting with a 3, and so on. In other words, there are equal quantities of numbers starting with each of the nine digits. So any random selection of those numbers will also have equal quantities of numbers starting with each of the nine digits. Benford’s law does not work!

So when does it work? Well only if the probability of a number occurring is inversely proportional to its size. That is why it works in business, because a typical business with a turnover of, say, £1bn will only have a few transactions that are worth more that £1m, but will probably have a thousand times as many smaller transactions with a value over £1000, and a few million transactions that are worth a few pounds.

In elections, this inverse proportionality does not apply, and neither does the random distribution. Vote count updates are generally all in the same size range, and the quantities for each candidate in a particular county will all be in the same proportion (roughly). In Chicago and Pittsburg Biden will probably out-poll Trump by 2:1 or 3:1, so the peaks in the first digits will reflect this.

So, another conspiracy theory busted.

• #

Obviously inverse proportionality applies to vote counts (as you could see it in Trumps votes and other candidates). There are many small counts in small precincts.
As precincts grow the 10s become at 100s or 1000s. Even in big precincts there will still be fewer 9000s than 5000s or 1000s.

So you haven’t busted anything. But you might convince us if you looked at data instead of just speculating theoretically.

Perhaps there is some reason the numbers cluster differently. (Which is what I asked for).

But you’ll need to analyze the data and see if there is a special clustered groupiness that explains the Biden curves.

You could do a few other candidates in cities in other areas — what about Dems in big cities in CA, say?

• #
AbysmalSpectator

Jo,

The count data that statsphdguy “applied” Benford’s Law to come from wards. In the case of Milwaukee these wards seem to have between 500 and 1500 people in a normalish like distribution. Given that the proportion of individuals who are going to vote for the Democrats in each of those wards is likely to be somewhere between, say 20% and 80% the resulting distribution of votes for Biden/Harris will be much the same. It is well known that Benford’s Law does not apply in such cases (see the Wikipedia article on it for a start) for more or less the reason Slarty outlines above. Indeed, if you just think about this precise data set yourself for a few minutes you will see that the distribution of leading digits for Biden/Harris is about what you would expect. Benford’s law tends to work with real world data spread over a few orders of magnitude, not with normalish distributions.

I don’t know where statsphdguy got his Ph.D. from, but it needs to be revoked. The misapplication of Benford’s Law here is egregious.

• #

yes. If you apply the wrong statistical test to data of a particular type or distribution you can get some very odd looking results. To then claim that these oddities don’t fit with expectations in this case flag statsphdguy as a fake.

• #
Gabriel Pentelie

“Given that the proportion of individuals who are going to vote for the Democrats in each of those wards is likely to be somewhere between, say 20% and 80% the resulting distribution of votes for Biden/Harris will be much the same.”

The above, BY DEFINITION, means that the proportion of individuals who are going to vote for the Republicans in each of those wards is likely to be somewhere between, say … 80% and 20%.

Yet, it is only the Biden/Harris curve that diverges from Benford’s.

Thoughts?

• #
AbysmalSpectator

“Yet, it is only the Biden/Harris curve that diverges from Benford’s.”

I was only painting a sloppy picture to indicate that even with the voting distribution the upper and lower values for a given parties votes in a ward was no more than a factor of 10 or so, and thus Benford’s Law won’t apply.

That the Republican data looks like it satisfies Benford’s Law (actually it deviates from it too) is more or less an accident of the data set.

As for the actual data sets, in the case of Milwaukee, a lot of wards appear to be heavily Democrat, so it is more like 98% to 80% Democrat in about half of the wards rather than a nice smooth distribution of possibilities across wards and parties, and in these cases the leading digits more or less just reflect the distribution of ward sizes

The Republicans, due to the strongly Democrat wards, are often only getting 100 to 200 votes in a ward (hence the frequency of 1s and 2s as leading digits in their results). The peak of leading 1s in the Democrat data, however comes from larger wards where the Democrats are getting over 1000 votes (rather than from clusters of 100-199 votes in the Republican case); the rest of the hump in their leading digits comes, largely, from the distribution of ward sizes which are being directly reflected in the results because of the low variation in the distribution of voting preferences across a large portion of the wards, as mentioned above.

This doesn’t mean that fraud didn’t occur in those wards, just that Benford’s Law is not the appropriate statistical tool to detect it, and using it as an argument for fraud IN THIS CASE will just get you laughed at by anyone with any serious statistical training. If it is of any bearing on the matter, I did teach statistics at Oxford University for a decade, so I might just have a bit of an idea about when statistical tests are relevant and when they produce rubbish.

My view is that statsphdguy either knows nothing about stats or is trying to bamboozle people with a test he knows is inappropriate for the shape of the data set. The misapplication of the test is really that bad.

As a simple intuitive counterexample to the hypothesis that you can apply Benford’s Law willy nilly, consider the distribution of human height measured in centimetres. It will not satisfy Benford’s Law because 99% of humans will be between 100cm and 199cm in height. A similar thing is going on in the Milwaukee data – the ward sizes and voting patterns are tightly distributed.

As for the election, my personal view is that it is quite likely fraud has occurred in some of these swing states, but that you cannot detect it or refute it with Benford’s Law as the underlying data set isn’t of the right sort.

• #
Kalm Keith

As Vlad says above, we really cannot understand the “Election” without keeping in mind the very important links to the recent extreme breakdown of US society with the Burn Loot and Murder activity.

And since he mentioned Genderism I, once again, feel obliged to point to the deliberate misuse of other people’s misfortune by creating a conflict between elements of the community around what they call, incorrectly, the LGBQITR condition.

Social Justice Warriors are misrepresenting themselves as do-gooders when actually all they are is miserable creeps.

And now we have OBiden, Karmala and AOC all lined up to “take the reins” to entrain the population into sanctioned group think.

KK

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The Depraved and MOST Deplorable (and still asleep) Vlad the Impaler

Thanks, KK. Yep, there was once upon a time when we had ‘social justice’; it was called you worked hard, you kept the fruits of your labor, and sometimes you managed to change your socio-economic status.

Now, it’s ‘we kill you and take what you’ve worked for, if you do not follow our prescription for “social justice” ‘. The Entitled Society feels it is entitled to force you to subscribe to their version of what is right, and what is wrong. No open-mindedness, no let’s us all mind our own business, it’s in your face we know what is best for you; resistance is futile, you will be assimilated.

I have no remedy. I fear for us all,

• #
Kalm Keith

Looking back on my life I can see changes in society which are definitely not positive here in Australia.

By contrast, to show that good can be done, we can.look at what Rudy Giuliani did in New York.

Reports say he turned it from a place of danger and despair to something much better.

I don’t have any first hand experience of the bad days but my wife and I have been there twice after the changes were made.

We felt very safe and were amazed at the relaxed behaviour and decency of those we came in contact with.

If he did that I am impressed: it takes a lot of thought and application to turn that type of problem around.

He showed that positive change is possible and this contrasts starkly with the message of victimhood coming from the OBiden, Kamala, AOC where the remedy for their perceived grievances is to tear others down.

There is hope but the tidal wave of grievance culture is large.

KK

• #
skeptikal

If there is large scale ballot stuffing (as it would appear to be), then maybe they were lazy and machine printed the voter markings instead of doing them all by hand. If that did happen, then it would be easy to identify the illegal votes by scanning all the voting papers and have a computer look for identical voter markings.

• #

Brilliant. Except they did neither.

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Neil Crafter

and you know this how expert? Are you on the ground in numerous counting facilities across the US simultaneously? Or are you taking someone’s word for this?

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Austin

A simple test would be to do the Benford analysis on the presidential, senate, and congressional results in each of the last 5 elections.

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AbysmalSpectator

Nope. The data sets will not satisfy the assumptions of Benford’s Law.

I suspect that if you performed the same analysis on rural counties you would get Trump/Pence distribution of leading digits looking like the Biden/Harris data in Milwaukee.

• #
Tobias Goodman

As you form opinions based on this, keep one thing in mind: Bedford’s law can be broken significantly when people act against their conscience. A bunch of people who wouldn’t normally vote for Biden doing so to evade the Trump presidency is a definite major cause of voters acting in a typically unexpected way.

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CHRIS

Should be interesting in the 3 Senate Runoffs in January. Democrats need to win 2 of these to get Senate Control. If the Republicans are smart, they will concentrate their campaign in Georgia (where there are 2 seats up for grabs). They only have to win 1 of these to keep Senate control. If they do, then let’s watch the fun…

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Blueytoo

The facts are plain to see:
Biased foxnews can call arizona early based on 73% iirc of the vote.
Associated press picks it up and the sheep follow. AP describes their justification for calling a state when the margin is bigger than the votes left to count, but breaks their own rules to call wisconsin.
New York Times (best site for election results i have found so far) attributes early calls AP, except for arizona which someone at nyt thinks is too close to call still. Nyt summary of state counts lists
Easy, close and tossup states but the margins for red are way bigger than for blue. Red tossup margins are bigger than blues close wins.
No states have published final data. Plenty are still countng. Military postal votes may favour red:

Numerous cases of fraudulent behaviour denied by conservative commentators as unlikely to be big enough in number to flip results.

Pew research nicely shows partisan divide growing for many decades.
https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2020/08/24/trumps-approval-ratings-so-far-are-unusually-stable-and-deeply-partisan/
Usually the support for incumbent drops before he gets the flick. Never see that in the mainstream mediocracy.

Most intriguing is the potential for voting machine code or hacking of counts that flips votes. The voting machines are impenetrable. Just like vw emissions computers fudge the behaviour to pass the test and behave differently in the real world. Easy to design code with enough complexity to look random and be undetectable.

As far as i can see, president senate and house are all too close to call. Mediocracy could never stick with the facts and are lining up for a civil war with the deplorables.

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Blueytoo

BTW House of Cards is probably not a patch on what skulduggery goes on in the real world.

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Blueytoo

Fascinating that in a number if tossup house seats, the votes outstanding still appears bigger than the red margin, even after a week. The bigger the red margin the bigger the outstanding vote count. So far projection is 9 flip red and all outstanding tossups have red leading.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/results-house.html?action=click&pgtype=Article&state=default&module=styln-elections-2020&region=TOP_BANNER&context=election_recirc