How to create panic by cherry picking the start date. Lessons from NOAA and NASA

Tony Heller does a fantastic video of the cherry picking done by US propaganda agencies formerly known as “scientific”.
It’s an excellent collection of graphs, mostly US based ones, all showing rising trends but all starting in different years. Somehow the warming effect of CO2 starts at different times in different datasets.

Unskeptical Scientists have an excuse for starting every dataset when they do, but there is no excuse for the pattern of continually picking the low point and hiding the hotter-drier past. Heller is calmly scathing about Arctic Sea Ice data. How many people know the early satellite data  shows lower Arctic Sea ice in the 1970s?

It’s the pattern that matters. The US is only a small part of the surface of Earth, but it’s a large part of the propaganda. Formerly great institutions are deceiving the people who pay their salaries. A lie by omission is still a lie…

Before anyone asks: the graphs for Australia don’t necessarily look the same or start at the same date. Though the pattern of behaviour of our “scientists” is — and scary graphs usually start either in 1910 or “the 70s”. The wild heat of the 1890’s and the Federation Drought and the thousands of news stories about that might as well not exist.

Australia is on the opposite side of the Pacific, which means the opposite side of ENSO. Inasmuch as El Ninos and La Ninas drive the climate (which is quite a bit) hot and dry spells swing differently douwnunder, though there are longer underlying cycles which affect the whole globe.


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48 comments to How to create panic by cherry picking the start date. Lessons from NOAA and NASA

  • #
    john karajas

    Good scientific method be damned. Just roll out screechy little Greta Stunberg to make an obnoxious speech and you will win the hearts and minds of the television journalists. Give me strength!


    • #

      She is so deluded, she is proof of the damage this cult is doing to the vulnerable children. This must STOP – NOW. I have written to my member asking him to take a stand and have the government start to reassure our youth that the world is not going to end in 2030.

      There is no longer any perspective among the gullibles it’s just lies and scare mongering from top to bottom. The kids can’t sort the wheat from the chaff like rational adults can.


    • #
      Latus Dextro

      Tony Heller does a fantastic video of the cherry picking done by US propaganda agencies formerly known as “scientific”.
      It’s an excellent collection of graphs, mostly US based ones, all showing rising trends but all starting in different years. Somehow the warming effect of CO2 starts at different times in different datasets.

      Yes he does!
      Tony Heller has been delivering a steady stream of truly stellar work of late that demonstrates the cyclical nature of climate, its historical record and the rampant substantial adjustment of NASA / NOAA data to cool the past and warm the present, in addition to the subject of this post, the widespread cherry picked start dates of the US National Climate Assessment climate change indicators that intentionally conceal the true nature and magnitude of current changes, invariably opposite to the claims asserted by the climatism cult. His work utterly undermines and refutes the cult, its pseudo-science, nonsensical invalid IPCC models (aside from the Russian model apparently) with hard, unadjusted post hoc, data of record.
      He also frames the current and past climate science commentary not only with the journalistic commentary of the day, but also with the endemic omnipresent media preoccupation with imminent terminal calamity, something that has been a reliable part of the newspaper record since the late 19th Century.


  • #

    Greta needs to be told that Climate Change is nothing to do with the environment. The UN IPCC has said so publicly and the whole UN is behind it. Man Made Climate Change, man made Global Warming are made up stories. The environment is fine. There is no species extinction. There is no crisis. The Polar bears are fine. She is being deceived and used, but that is child abuse and she would not understand why so many adults would tell lies. Money and power and the truth be damned.

    She would not understand that, like millions of her contemporaries. Like all communists who call themselves socialists they are lying to the children. I hope that is because the adults are starting to doubt it and after 31 year of fake graphs, fake data, fake news, they are waking up, not woke.


  • #

    I won’t believe any of their charts and model results until they can use them to profitably trade the SPI200.
    If they are as good as they reckon, they should be able to.


  • #
    Kalm Keith

    When you brain perceives an immediate, substantial threat it immediately dumps all other tasks and focuses on the most important thing: Survival!!

    The use of doctored data and selected science helps focus the fear and the sufferer becomes susceptible to suggestion offered by master manipulators.

    If only humanity could ignore the great, calmly assess the situation and tell the manipulators to get stuffed.

    Sadly, people are happiest when being led.



    • #
      Kalm Keith

      great = threat


      • #
        Ted O'Brien.

        A great many people don’t want to have to make their own decisions. In many cases just because they fear they don’t have enough information, or lack confidence in the quality of their information.

        They would rather follow the bloke they think is in front.

        In Australia we see it in every election.


  • #
    Graeme No.3

    It is a very good video, and I urge everyone to view it.


  • #
    Environment Skeptic

    Excellent software Tony Heller has created. Fantastic seeing a real time view of what happens to the temperature graph when cherry picking the start date. Brilliant ! Thanks Tony.


    • #
      Environment Skeptic

      Pumping those 45 comments on this this thread up to 46 comments on this thread to a new record…i can show you a graph and cherry pick the data. 45 comments is way too low


  • #

    23 Sept: RFI: UN climate summit: Macron urges world leaders to think green
    French President Emmanuel Macron on Monday called on his counterparts to include climate change in their trade and finance policies.
    Speaking in New York at a UN climate summit aimed at rebooting the 2015 Paris Agreement against global warming, Macron said countries should not import goods that increase carbon pollution nor fund polluting plants in other countries.

    He also asked other nations to increase their pledges to the Green Climate Fund, which helps poorer nation with climate issues.
    “We are now at $7 billion,” Macron said. “The target is $10 billion to make for the United States withdrawal.”…

    (Trump’s) lightning visit was later upstaged by the announcement that Russia would formally accept the 2015 Paris Agreement.
    The decision signified Russia’s consent to the obligations under the Paris Agreement, the government said in a statement.
    “It will now allocate financial resources … to developing countries for prevention of and adaptation to climate change.”

    Presenting his decree at a government meeting, prime minister Dmitry Medvedev said: “The threat of climate change is (the) destruction of the ecological balance, increased risks for successful development of key industries … and most importantly, threat to safety of people living on permafrost and increase of natural disasters.”
    Greenpeace Russia welcomed the decision to accept the Paris Agreement…


    • #

      23 Sept: UK Telegraph: Russia ratifies Paris climate accord – but targets are ‘critically insufficient’
      By Alec Luhn, Moscow
      Russia has ratified the Paris climate agreement, marking a shift in rhetoric for the world’s fourth largest greenhouse polluter even though its pledged targets are so low it can still increase emissions…
      Under the Paris agreement, which allowed countries to set their own targets, Russia pledged to reduce emissions to 25 to 30 per cent below 1990 levels by 2030.

      But this is little more than a sleight of hand, since Russian industry today is still running at a far slower clip than it was before the collapse of the Soviet command economy. As of 2017, Russia’s emissions were 32 per cent lower than in 1990. Thus it can actually pollute more and still meet its current Paris agreement goals…
      As the second-largest oil exporter, Russia contributes to the burning of greenhouse gases around the world and is continuing to develop its oil, gas and coal industries.

      At the same time, it is also the world’s top exporter of wheat and nuclear technology. The country is warming 2.5 times faster than the rest of the planet and has suffered climate-related catastrophes this year like flooding in the Irkutsk region and record-breaking wildfires across Siberia…

      ***Mr Putin has denied that global warming is caused by humans, a position that remains unchanged despite the ratification, his spokesman told Bloomberg…READ ALL


      • #

        23 Sept: France24: AFP: Russia adopts Paris climate agreement: decree
        While not formally named a “ratification,” the government said in a statement that the decree signifies Russia’s adoption of the agreement and “Russia’s consent to the obligations under the Paris Agreement”.
        A government source told AFP that the document is the “last step in the procedure of Russia’s adoption of the Paris agreement”…

        23 Sept: Russia joins Paris climate accord
        by Maria Antonova
        The Paris Agreement, which Russia signed in 2016, gives countries a choice in how to join the accords by ratification, acceptance, approval or accession to the agreement, depending on their national legislation.
        The decision to “accept” the accord signifies “Russia’s consent to the obligations under the Paris Agreement”, the government said in a statement…
        While many countries will be present at the summit at the head of state level, Russia is only sending a deputy environment minister…

        23 Sept: EurActiv: UN climate summit, day #2: Few announcements in the end – ‘How dare you’
        By Claire Stam
        Four EU Member States (Denmark, Luxembourg, the Netherlands and Sweden) committed to support an update of the EU’s 2030 climate target by the first quarter of 2020. Several European countries also announced they will host major summits in 2020: Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte said his country will host a summit on adaptation to climate change. Portugal will host a United Nations conference on the oceans in Lisbon in June, according to President Marcello Rebelo de Sousa. This adds to the United Kingdom, which will host COP 26, while Italy will host the pre-COP…


        • #

          24 Sept: WaPo: The Energy 202: World’s largest emitters stop short of sweeping climate commitments at U.N.
          By Dino Grandoni
          But what mattered most at Monday’s U.N. climate summit was what China, India and the U.S. actually said — and what the three biggest emitters of greenhouse gases did not say.
          Countries “once again stopped short of committing to the sort of far-reaching new goals scientists say are needed to rein in emissions,” as The Post’s Brady Dennis and Juliet Eilperin report from the summit…
          Altogether, the top three emitters account for nearly half of global greenhouse gas emissions, according to the World Resources Institute…

          China: China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi took a veiled swing at Trump. He sought to reassure other countries that the promised U.S. withdrawal won’t affect China’s goals under the international accord.

          •What it means: The rub here is China, the world’s top emitter, made no new promises to further cut emissions as worries there grow about its slowing economy. And China’s original commitment for its emissions to peak no later than 2030 is not enough to begin with…

          India: Prime Minister Narendra Modi committed to more than doubling India’s renewable energy capacity by 2030…

          •What it means: India’s original Paris goals are compatible with keeping warming under 2 degrees, according to Climate Action Tracker. Still, Modi made no promise to cut its use of coal-fired power generation as some hoped. India is looking to build out all the electricity generation it can as it tries to lift millions out of poverty…

          United States: After initially deciding to forgo the climate summit, Trump made a surprise, 14-minute appearance, listening to Modi’s and German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s remarks, according to The Post’s Seung Min Kim and Anne Gearan.

          •What he said: “I believe in clean air and clean water, very simple,” Trump said when asked why he decided to participate. “We have the cleanest air; we have the cleanest water.”

          •What it means: The Trump administration’s efforts to walk back regulations on coal plants and automobiles means the United States is set to fall far short of what it needs to do to meet the Paris temperature goal. Other than those off-the-cuff remarks, the United States was virtually invisible during the day.


  • #
    Richard Ilfeld

    If we were on the left, and not good-hearted, well-grounded, patriotic skeptics…..

    We’d gin up a lawsuit charging Greta the Pious’s handlers with child abuse….
    We’d insist that an inspector General be appointed to NOAA to investigate the temperature diddling…..
    We’d accuse the climate freaks of an international conspiracy destroy the market values of large companies in energy, thereby impoverishing thousand
    of seniors on pensions and causing thousands of premature deaths…..
    We’d accuse them conspiring to keep billions in poverty by inhibiting development, and point out that many of these have pretty dusky skin tones…..
    We’d take to the streets to protest the corruption of our schools, and our politics, and our corporate governance with false fears…..
    We’d point out the damage done to farmers by convincing people not to eat meat….
    We’d point out the millions of goof jobs that could be created by a robust energy industry, and a booming economy, and suggest that people not supporting a good economy
    are deniers and should probably be prosecuted and certainly be ostracized.
    We’d be loud and obnoxious and narcissistic and in love with ourselves and oblivious to reason….

    Scientific debate and logical persuasion, grounding one’s life in reality is so boring.

    Oh well, live and let live….if the greens want to leave the grid and eschew modern life, let them go.
    Maybe there is a certain faction that wants to follow a messianic teenage girl into battle every four centuries or so.
    Greta – meet Joan. History rhymes…this will not likely end well.


  • #
    Dave in the States

    Regarding Arctic sea ice, there is irrefutable evidence that there were low sea ice periods in the recent past but before the satellite era and when co2 concentration was lower. During the 1930’s the Russians engaged in extensive shipping in the Arctic that simply has not been possible in more recent decades. Ships keep logs so it is documented. Additionally, during WW2 all combatants conducted naval operations in the Arctic oceans. Once again this is documented.

    There has been some discussion on these issues:

    Also see:


  • #

    23 Sept: Weather Channel: Snow, Colder Temperatures Coming to Northern Rockies and Northwest
    By Chris Dolce
    ▪ High temperatures will be 10 to 30 degrees below average.
    High temperatures are likely to be 10 to 30 degrees below late-September averages this weekend from Northern California and northern Nevada to Montana and Idaho. This will be the coldest air of the early fall season so far, and temperatures will likely drop below freezing at night in parts of the northern Rockies.
    The cold temperatures will also allow snow to not only fall in the mountains, but also down to valley floors this weekend into early next week…

    23 Sept: Spokesman-Review Washington: Forecast calls for freezing temperatures and a chance for snow in Spokane
    By Thomas Clouse
    An already cool month of September could end with snow in Spokane as this coming weekend’s forecast calls for wind chills in the 20s, according to the National Weather Service.
    A big trough is bringing cold temperatures and moisture to the Spokane and Coeur d’Alene region, and some forecast models are calling for snow in the valleys. It would be the first time Spokane has had snow in September since flakes fell in 1926, meteorologist Rocco Pelatti said…
    “The last time Spokane had snow around this time, that date was 1926,” Pelatti said. “They had 1.4 inches on Sept. 23.”…
    “On Monday, it could be cold. Wind chills might be in the 20s,” Pelatti said…


  • #

    24 Sept: Yahoo: Canadian city will experience 20-degree drop in temperature AND snow this week
    by Daniel Milligan
    Some Canadian communities are set for a dramatic change in weather over the next few days, according to The Weather Network.
    Temperatures in the western Prairies might leave some feeling like the weather pattern has skipped fall and headed straight for winter.
    While the first few days of the new season will be sunny and mild in Alberta, a sharp change is set to roll in for the second half of the week.
    The forecaster predicts that temperatures in Calgary will plummet from 19 C Monday to 2 C Friday, dropping down again over the weekend with -4 C as the expected low on Sunday.
    The dramatic drop in temperatures will coincide with some heavy snowfall along the Rockies. There is also a chance of snow as far east as Edmonton by the end of the weekend.

    24 Sept: Weather Network: Significant snow threat expands across parts of western Canada, risk of 30 CM
    While the first few days of the new season will be pleasant, a surge of Arctic air will send temperatures tumbling by the latter half of the week and that puts snow (yes, snow) on the table for some major population centres. We take a look at the abrupt change, and who should have their shovels at the ready, below…

    24 Sept: Stuff NZ: North Island hit by heavy rain, gales, tumbling temperatures; snow risk for many passes
    Heavy rain is falling in many areas of the North Island as the arrival of southwest gales sent temperatures tumbling, and snow is expected in the south from Wednesday.
    The chilly snap comes just after the spring equinox on Monday. “It certainly is springtime but these aren’t too unusual conditions for spring. It’s a very changeable time of year,” Metservice meteorologist Lewis Ferris said.
    That said, it wasn’t something that happened every year around this time. A colleague had suggested similar cold snaps around the time of the equinox maybe happened once every five years…
    MetService is forecasting snow down to 100m in Southland on Wednesday, with periods of heavy snow expected in Fiordland.
    Some snow could also fall in most of the alpine passes…ETC


  • #

    23 Sept: MyNorthWest: Seattle could be primed for ‘very active winter’ as snow arrives on Mt. Rainier
    By Nick Bowman
    With fall — and its appropriately gloomy weather — rolling in on Monday, the days ahead could come with even colder temperatures, a tough winter, and even some light snow showers on Mt. Rainier before the end of the week.
    “Would you like to see some snowflakes this week? Anyone living in Washington State will be able to do so with a short drive, as unseasonally cold air will be moving in,” said UW climate scientist Cliff Mass in a recent blog post (LINK)…
    According to data cited by Mass, the normal high temperatures for this time a year typically sit in the upper 60s. By Friday, though, Seattle will see highs in the high 50s, roughly 10 degrees colder than usual.
    “Not good,” he warned. “I suspect we have very active winter ahead.”…


  • #

    can’t recall this being posted as yet. perhaps I missed it:

    23 Sept: Quadrant: Tony Thomas: A Climate Modeller Spills the Beans
    There’s a top-level oceanographer and meteorologist who is prepared to cry “Nonsense!”on the “global warming crisis” evident to climate modellers but not in the real world…
    The iconoclast is Dr. Mototaka Nakamura. In June he put out a small book in Japanese on “the sorry state of climate science”. It’s titled Confessions of a climate scientist: the global warming hypothesis is an unproven hypothesis, and he is very much qualified to take a stand. From 1990 to 2014 he worked on cloud dynamics and forces mixing atmospheric and ocean flows on medium to planetary scales. His bases were MIT (for a Doctor of Science in meteorology), Georgia Institute of Technology, Goddard Space Flight Centre, Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Duke and Hawaii Universities and the Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology. He’s published about 20 climate papers on fluid dynamics.[i]…

    24 Sept: AmericanThinker: Top-level climate modeler goes rogue, criticizes ‘nonsense’ of ‘global warming crisis’
    By Thomas Lifson
    A highly qualified and experienced climate modeler with impeccable credentials has rejected the unscientific bases of the doom-mongering over a purported climate crisis. His work has not yet been picked up in this country, but that is about to change, Writing in the Australian site Quadrant, Tony Thomas introduces the English-Speaking world to the truth-telling of Dr. Mototaka Nakamura. (hat tip: Andrew Bolt, John McMahon)


    • #

      Thanks Pat,
      He certainly doesn’t pull any punches.
      I’ve not finished reading the Quadrant article yet, but think this extract gives a reasonable example of it:
      ” Accurate simulation of cloud is simply impossible in climate models since it requires calculations of processes at scales smaller than 1mm.” Instead, the modellers put in their own cloud parameters. Anyone studying real cloud formation and then the treatment in climate models would be “flabbergasted by the perfunctory treatment of clouds in the models.

      Nakamura describes as “moronic” the claims that “tuned” ocean models …”

      His explanation of the role of clouds in weather and climate is clear and expands on other comments I’ve read over the years. Kininmonth’s book described this flaw in the models but was jignored.
      Dave B


  • #

    finally, given the attacks on Pres Trump have been even more relentless than usual this week –

    Obama had 44% approval at the same point in his first term:

    24 Sept: Rasmussen: Daily Presidential Tracking Poll
    The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Tuesday shows that 53% of Likely U.S. Voters approve of President Trump’s job performance…


    • #

      Not surprising, what is the alternative.

      2024 will be adifferent story.


    • #
      robert rosicka

      The news that the dumocrats are going ahead with an impeachment over the Dons phone call to the Ukraine president will be an own goal for Biden, Pelosi and the Democrats .


  • #

    Very good article in The Quadrant.

    “The climate models are useful tools for academic studies, he says. However, “the models just become useless pieces of junk or worse (worse in a sense that they can produce gravely misleading output) when they are used for climate forecasting.”……” Climate forecasting is simply impossible, if only because future changes in solar energy output are unknowable.”


    • #

      It is absurd to extend weather models to predict climate when the energy store is the oceans. The atmosphere is important for controlling the ocean heat balance and assisting ocean heat transfer. Energy storage and distribution drive weather. Follow the energy not the weather.

      An analogy of CO2 being the tail wagging the dog is a gross exaggeration. Better is the bit of fluff at the end of the tail controlling the dog. The only non instrumental means of discerning CO2 influence is the growth rate of trees if you are old enough to remember how fast they grew 50 years ago.


  • #
    ralf ellis

    Greta need to be told that CO2 is the most important gas in the atmosphere – it is plant food, and without it all life on Earth would die. CO2 was six times higher during the Jurassic era, and the biosphere was fine – in fact the huge size of dinosaurs was founded upon high CO2 concentrations.

    But over the next millions of years, atmospheric and oceanic CO2 was locked up in coal seams and limestone strata, and concentrations declined. And concentrations reduced so far that during the ice ages CO2 reached 190ppm, which meant that plants at high altitude started to die due to a lack of CO2. This formed a large CO2 desert across northern China, which produced all the dust we see during each glacial maximum. Yes – these were CO2 deserts, not aridity deserts.

    So all life on Earth would be threatened by a lack of CO2 during the next glacial era. But then along came the oil and coal companies, and they took this archaic, fossilised CO2 and put it back into the atmosphere, where it belongs. So the oil and coal companies have SAVED ALL LIFE ON EARTH by giving plants the food that they crave. Give the oil and coal companies a medal, for saving the biosphere.

    See my science paper on this subject:
    Modulation of Ice Ages via Dust and Albedo.

    Ralph Ellis


    • #
      el gordo

      As the Holocene is reaching its ‘used by’ date we should expect an aridity pulse, lasting approximately 400 years, to drive the planet into full glaciation mode.

      At the other end it could be argued that Australian iron ore dust pulled the world out of the LGM.


  • #

    Let’s give Saint Greta an Education, now, shall we?

    “To store the energy equivalent of a single barrel of oil, which can be stored in a $20 container at minimal cost, requires $200,000 and 10 tons of Tesla batteries. ”

    “Tesla’s “Gigafactory” produces only enough batteries in an entire year to store three minutes of U.S. power demand.”

    “A single wind turbine requires 900 tons of steel, 2,500 tons of concrete, and 45 tons of plastic (produced from hydrocarbons and not recyclable). Solar is even more resource consumptive. “


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  • #

    And now a message from a teenager



    Climate Crisis!! Weather Crisis NOW!!”

    Just think where these current teenagers might be, in 20 years time, be a major wheel in running a company that currently you and your business relied on, or they may go into politics, or maybe became a law enforcement officers, or canon fodder in NGOs …

    Good luck future generations. This current batch of teenagers having such a bad start, not understanding the basics of critical thinking but strongly inculcated with a blame culture, the future looks dark and cold.
    Thankfully, I won’t have to survive it.


    • #
      Adaminaby Angler

      You forgot *urban before the word teenager, matey.

      Rural youth are nothing like their spoilt, urban counterparts.


  • #
    Antoine D'Arche

    Two conversations in the last few days, with two different people in two different locations (Sydney, and rural Australia) went the same way: absolutely NO IDEA of the evidence against AGW/CC. No idea.
    Complete failure of the 4th estate.


  • #

    Jo rightly points out differences in the hemispheres. Sitting in Brazil I am now in midwinter where in Texas it is autumn. Also, 8/9 of Earth’s population lives in the northern hemisphere, where there is more land to stand on. Remember the ozone? When Jimmy Carter was prez, communist climatology made the case we should surrender and join the Soviet Union because if we are attacked and resist with nuclear weapons, ozone will suffer. Then came Nuclear Winter by divine revelation, so disarm and Surrender or Freeze. Then it turned out ABM treaties violate the US Second Amendment, so SDI was not only legal but mandatory, and the Soviet Union that created the Climate Change theory complete with Sharknados caused by noncommunist greed and weapons–a theory worked out when JFK was president–dissolved and melted! But altruism remained.


  • #

    Australian climate variability & change – Trend maps

    At the BOM site defaults to trends since 1970, the wettest decade on record by a fair bit. Makes it look like Australia is in trouble. Change it to from 1900 and things look much rosier for gumboot manufacturers.


    • #

      Only 1/9 of all people live in the Southern hemisphere. Remember when ozone was poised to wipe out all life on Earth? Now by law refrigerators and ACs break, and we see no change in readings of ozone–reading which are difficult to even find at all. Hmmm…