JoNova
A science presenter, writer, speaker & former TV host; author of The Skeptic's Handbook (over 200,000 copies distributed & available in 15 languages).
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Statistics
Awww, heck! I was going to have something ready for this Weekend Umtreaded, but I’ve fluffed it. Can’t remember what I wuz gonna say! Age related memory problems, you know…
While I’m here, I was looking at a post of Jo’s from some 8 years ago, and it crossed my mind that Jo’s sheer tenacity should not go unrewarded by at least the Australian nation.
And.. where’s Rereke?
230
Try reading Graham Lloyd in today’s Weekend Oz. That should get you up and running.
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This is the opening par …..
‘James Cook University has been dragged into a global research misconduct scandal involving a former student.’
Even Pat can’t get behind Murdoch’s paywall, perhaps you could paraphrase?
90
el gordo:
Relevant excerpts:
James Cook University has been dragged into a global research misconduct scandal involving a former student, ocean plastics, predatory lionfish and missing data.
Scientific practices at the university’s Lizard Island research facility have been put in the international spotlight and JCU said it was establishing an external panel of experts to investigate.
At the centre of the scandal is work by former student Oona Lonnstedt, who was last year found guilty of fabricating data underpinning a 2016 paper in the journal Science after leaving JCU.
The findings triggered questions over where and how such a young researcher had learned to fabricate data. According to The Times of London, Dr Lonnstedt completed her undergraduate, postgraduate and doctoral degrees at James Cook University.
In February, another journal, Biology Letters, issued an “expression of concern” about 2014 research conducted by Dr Lonnstedt while at JCU about lionfish.
CU told The Times the university was “in the process of convening an external panel to investigate her (Dr Lonnstedt’s) research”. “JCU is committed to the highest standards of ethical research,” a spokesman said.
The scandal has come to a head as the federal government announced $500 million in extra funding for the Great Barrier Reef in this week’s budget.
JCU is also involved in a high-profile Federal Court action with marine physicist Peter Ridd, who has called for better quality assurance of marine science research.
Professor Ridd told The Weekend Australian the Lonnstedt case was “just another somewhat more spectacular example of the failure of the quality systems that we use in science which rely almost entirely on peer review”.
220
Thanks G.
‘The findings triggered questions over where and how such a young researcher had learned to fabricate data.’
Its endemic.
100
Let’s see. Lizard Island resort is $2000 a day. That’s twice the cost even of an overwater bungalow on a motu in Bora Bora, Tahiti.
Of course the place desperately needs research and lots of bikini clad student researchers soaking up the intellectual atmosphere. They need supervision. All of them desperately need something to do. Just like all the Americans studying ocean acidification and the coral reef fish and the crown of thorns starfish in Tahiti.
Now someone suggest someone might have faked their research just to get a few years in paradise plus a degree or two in Climate Change? Amazing. What motivates people these days?
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“Lizard Island is Australia’s northern most island beach resort and the ultimate spot for luxurious seclusion, facilities and diving. Located 240km north of Cairns on The Great Barrier Reef.
The island is a protected National Park, with just one exclusive resort, 40 rooms and suites, and 24 pristine sandy beaches. ”
Now who could doubt research is needed. Won’t someone spare a lousy $500Million to help these poor people? You do not have to worry about the quality of reseach, it is all pier reviewed.
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The researchers would be nowhere near the paying guests. They would be in another bay with the island staff and game boat crews. I’ve been there with the staff and it was fun.
60
I posted a link in another thread about one uni I’m thinking from memory one of the quack ones in Queensland having links with a snake oil salesman and doing dodgy research and testimonials .
10
… which is why mankind invented writing 🙂
I know: you have to remember to write it down and before you can do that, you have to remember where you put the notepad and the pen/pencil …
Probably either hunting (April into early May is “The Roar”—the deer mating season) or recovering from it.
80
But after you’ve found the pen and paper, you have to remember what it was you wanted to write down so you wouldn’t forget it……..
Just like getting to to do something, and by the time you get to where it was you were going to in order to do whatever it was, you’ve forgotten what it was you wanted to when you got there. 🙂
30
Thank the gods, I’m not alone 🙂 I also have all these notes which are meaningless, too. 🙂
40
Rereke is not here
I await him with my beer
his poetic distallations
assist my education
80
Hear, hear!
60
The BOM’s radar loop is completely bereft of place names. Could this be some kind of PC statement about European settlement? They did shut down the Terry Hills (Sydney) site for maintenance a few weeks ago with a forecast that it would be back up and running by 29th of April (from memory).
60
The BOM radars seem to be offline for much longer periods for maintenance than the WSR88D radar. Many of the BOM radars are not Doppler. Some are only part time. Overall the standard of service seems to be lower than what exists in the United States.
30
I just checked that.
My BOM Radar for Melbourne has lots and lots of Place Names!
Lets Not Blame THE BOM for things they do not do. Actually they provide us with an incredible amount of online information.
30
” I just checked that.
My BOM Radar for Melbourne has lots and lots of Place Names!
Lets Not Blame THE BOM for things they do not do. Actually they provide us with an incredible amount of online misinformation ”
Fixed it for you !
20
Check ‘Locations‘ is ticked in the Map Features box. This is fixed data, so it is part of the map itself. I would think the only way it could be missing is that you have not asked for it to be shown.
30
TdeF is correct. The map features box is in the lower right hand corner of the Rain Radar page.
20
Thank you TdeF, that worked. I have always had locations and suddenly they disappeared. My original comment was just a bit of tongue in cheek and i do agree the BOM generally provide an excellent web site.
10
Tongue in cheek has become egg on face. Will someone give me a green thumb for that one? LOL
31
Over the last few days I have been pondering on the sheer absence of infrastructure and demolition of existing engineering capacity that has been overseen by several decades of politicians.
Who benefited and who loses.
Did r$pe and pillage end with pirates or is it still there under cover?
More later.
KK
90
Keith, all my life I have been watching it, and wondered could people really be so evil as to want to destroy our society altogether.
The ACTU spent the whole of the 1970s preventing Australian firms from innovating. It was, then, particularly galling to hear Hawke in the later 1980s telling us that Australia had to become “the clever country”. Before he hit the scene Australia was a remarkably clever country.
The opportunities squandered over the last forty years surely put our future in jeopardy.
Who benefits, who loses? Everybody loses! But some, just plain evil, think that’s OK.
141
How many modern Australians know that Jack Brabham won the world Formula One Championship in a car that his own team had built, using an engine built for the purpose by Repco.
Repco didn’t just build a winning Formula One engine. They rendered marvellous service to Australian industry in manufacturing specialised parts.
Repco was one of the few companies to survive the ravages of the seventies, but only as a trading company. None of its factories survived.
140
I do, but I’m not Australian. 🙂
That was a highly modified motor based on the Rover 3500 V8 which was bought by Rover from GM America, where it started life as a Buick 215. Nice motor to play with.
I admit to having had three of them over several decades … 🙂
two 3500s and one (made in Australia) 4400cc.
70
S
Was used in Oldsmobile’s smaller sized one (F85?) and was an option in Pontiac Tempest
The Buick engine had more head studs – all IIRC
10
The heads were held down by bolts, the Buick/Rover motor using 5 per cylinder. I can’t answer for the Olds version. I can’t remember, but I think the 4400 had 4 per cylinder. It came from the Leyland P76 and tweaked nicely. The ends of some of them ran into the water jacket. It was a bit of a fiddle to put sealant into the bottoms of those bolt holes which did run into the water jacket, otherwise getting the bolts out later became … um … hard, and damaged the threads in the block too.
Because I played hard with one of the 3500s and the 4400, I tossed the bolts and fitted studs (available from Aus 🙂 ) but the sealant still had to go down into those holes so the bottom threads of the stud didn’t corrode. The studs were a couple of turns of thread shorter than the bolts which meant they could be well sealed. To help, I also used thread inserts in those holes.
20
When I see pics of Jack in the cars of the day I shudder: The drivers were head and shoulders outside the car. No wonder so many died.
30
Thanks for all that info. I read at the time that it was a Buick block. I always wondered about other components. I did not know it was related to the P76 motor. I do remember a mate putting a new P76 motor “straight into” his Range Rover.
10
Yeabut, Bob made sure no child would live in poverty … oh wait … disregard.
80
Greenland temps. have stayed the same for years,
Which contradict the greenhouse gasses fears.
All those who harness power from the sun,
Can not dictate how nations’ grids are run.
Eight cents to pay per kilowatt an hour,
Could be the price for everybody’s power.
Let’s hope Hawaii with its burst of lava,
Won’t end like Krakatoa, west of Java.
When solar farms are subsidized to boom,
For food crops on good land there isn’t room.
Much better have a coal-fired power station,
Than diesel for the Battery of the Nation.
200
Brilliant IMO
Re the Hawaiian eruption
”
B A Deplorable Rupertslander
May 11, 2018 at 12:54 am
Hawaii obviously needs a lava tax. That’ll stop it for sure because the science has been settled.”
http://www.smalldeadanimals.com/index.php/2018/05/11/your-moral-and-intellectual-superiors-12/#comment-1113376
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Why stop there? Might as well have a record hot day tax, a king high tide tax, a no rain day tax. What the heck let’s also have a sun tax given it’s the real culprit causing non-freezing temperatures here on earth. What?! We are still freezing! Woops. CAGW scam exposed.
70
A “no sun” tax will fix that for sure
50
That would make sense for a Greenie. When there is no sun there is no power from solar panels so better have a tax to make up for the lost revenue by the scam.
40
To use a bit of very common descriptive Auzzie slang from a half a century ago but seemingly now lost amongst the current younger generation;
Bill “Shifty” Shorten is working on the tax take as he has show he will be able to cover some of the outrageous outgoings when he gets into power
30
Um. what about a windy day tax? Oh, sorry, you already have one: a power bill.
70
Later to be obfuscated in terms like ‘Anomalies Tax’ or ‘Excessive Anomalies Tax’
40
You could even have a
sinsyn tax.Oh wait!
Done that’s been already.
Cue Curly
Tony.
50
You forgot ‘free’ speach tax, but that will hit the greenies rather hard for how can you save an entire planet without an overpowering plentitude of highly-enriched gobsh|te? Tax-haven much?
20
Haven’t we got attacks on free speech happening already?
50
oops! wrong avatar, got my email address wrong.
20
When Bishop Ussher calculated that God had created the Earth on October 23, 4004BC THE SCIENCE WAS SETTLED. Both Kepler and Newton accepted this, and that all the animals on it were created by God and didn’t vary or evolve.
Later, as doubts arose, especially about Noah’s flood this idea was replaced by the Catastrophe Theory of Cuvier, which explained changes in ancient fauna and flora by postulating a series of catastrophes in the distant past which wiped out dominant animals e.g. dinosaurs, and replaced them with others. Cuvier, despite being a devout Christian, was rather vague about the replacement process but as he certainly believed that species were fixed and unvarying it was thought that God must have created them. Relief all round among scientists because THE SCIENCE WAS SETTLED.
Later Darwin unleashed his bombshell about evolution and this meant that THE SCIENCE WAS SETTLED. Doubts were expressed especially by Lord Kelvin, a towering figure in nineteenth century physics who calculated that the earth was only 100 million years old. This held sway for 40 years until Lord Rutherford (as he became) studied radioactive decay and raised the age to 1350 million years. This allowed time for evolution to happen, and along with the re-discovery of Mendel’s genetics breathed new life into evolutionary science and scientists across the globe rejoiced as THE SCIENCE WAS SETTLED.
Later the age of the Earth was changed again and again, but now is put at 4.54 billion years old, so that is now SETTLED SCIENCE. Some may wonder if the Moon at 4.53 billion or Mars at 4.60 billion is also settled.
Then in 1972 the theory of punctuated equilibrium, which was announced by Stephen J. Gould and Niles Eldredge changed science again. This came as welcome news to Palaeontologist John Ostrom who revolutionised the way scientists thought about dinosaurs in the late 1960s, leading to the “dinosaur renaissance” and overturning the previous SETTLED SCIENCE that dinosaurs had been plodding, cold blooded reptilian giants.
Then the SETTLED SCIENCE about the demise of the dinosaurs at the end of the Cretaceous was upset by the father-and-son team of scientists Luis and Walter Alvarez who suggested in 1980 that it was due to an asteroid hitting the earth. There was much debate until the impact site at Chicxulub was discovered. This means that now THE SCIENCE IS SETTLED.
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Apolgies but space didn’t allow for other SETTLED SCIENCE such as the Phlogiston theory, or the fixed number of planets upset by the discovery of Uranus, or the ageless earth, or Piltdown man, or N-rays, or Eugenics, or the benefits of bathing in radioactivity, or the single origin of Homo sapiens, and a lot of other SETTLED SCIENCE (at that time).
Lord Kelvin’s claim that heavier than air flight was impossible was merely his opinion.
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So settled science comes in wave form?
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More as a result of people noting that a much hyped hypothesis differs from reality.
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Cyclic.
It’s all about cycles just like climate change 🙂
It took a few complete dinosaur skeletons to start shaking the foundations.
30
You forgot the hyper-inflatulated Big-Bang.
Settled—shot out of a unicorn’s klacker.
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NOT SO FAS y’all! during the second term of P45 will come DA BIG-KWUNCH! When da past catches up with finite speed of light (c) in cycles/cm! 🙂 Den all y’all gonna be really sorry! -will-
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Even if you make itsy-tiny cycles, hard to get more than 20,000/cm (visible light); i.e. seeing over yonder! 🙂 What do you think you are SEEING?
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Black hole?
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WXcycles May12,18:21:55
Indeed look out again at 1,000 cycles/cm (10 micron wl) What you observe yonder is Big Bruce setting up BBQ grills for local fish-fry! Guess who is fish? 🙂
02
Before Earth was formed there was no such thing as a “year”, so how can the age of Mars be known? Ditto for the Universe.
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umm… is this serious? I mean really?
Year is just a quanta that is a convenience to aid our conceptual understanding of the passage of time. I could measure it by the number of iterations of the length of Hey Jude. According to you though, I would not be able to measure further back than about 50 years (around 3.7 million hey judes) because before then Hey Jude did not exist and I therefore can’t measure time back any further.
20
“Why is it that so many prominent environmental campaigners turn out to be such scumbags, sleazebags, hypocrites or frauds?”
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2018/05/11/why-is-it-that-so-many-prominent-environmental-campaigners-turn-out-to-be-such-scumbags-sleazebags-hypocrites-or-frauds/
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Comment in that thread
” Sheri
May 11, 2018 at 9:46 am
Actually, your idea might explain carbon credits. One can dump tons of CO2 into the atmosphere (or have questionable proclivities and habits) but if one buys credits to offset it, it’s okay (if one “does good” in another area, the questionable activities can be overlooked). I hadn’t really thought of that until now, but it kind of makes sense. You can continue to “sin” if you donate enough to the cause.”
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2018/05/11/why-is-it-that-so-many-prominent-environmental-campaigners-turn-out-to-be-such-scumbags-sleazebags-hypocrites-or-frauds/#comment-2814316
Brings to mind the thread heading used at SDA
“When the Democrats do it it is not illegal” and a few other things
40
Power goes to some men’s heads, some men’s balls and for some men: both.
70
and for Clinton, Merkel, Lagarde etc?
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I’m male, I don’t try commenting about females: that’s too goddamned dangerous! 🙂
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Actually I found a way around that issue. I first joke about males then females. That way they can’t come back at me without agreeing to retract both jokes. They just stare at me trying to find a way to pick on me but they can’t. Level playing fields are fun.
50
“Power tends to corrupt and absolute power corrupts absolutely.”
No!!
All power does is attract those who are already corrupt. In my experience.
10
Question : Lord Monckton has had a couple of pieces on WUWT referring to work he and his colleagues have done which blows the AGW theory out of the water and he mentions a paper written about it. Has that been published yet and if so where do I find it?
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Lukewarmers quibbling over feedbacks.
http://www.drroyspencer.com/2018/03/climate-f-words/
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I have a lot of respect for Lord Monckton and even had my photo taken with him after a presentation he did in Newcastle.
That said, he is a mathematician and his approach is to take the IPCCC method as fact and check the mathematics involved.
That may be a simplification, but not by much.
What he does show is that even if the IPCCCCC method is assumed to be correct, there is still a flaw that shows just how unreliable the basic framework is.
Lord Monckton has contributed a great deal by countering the accuracy of the IPCCCCC claims even though by using the claimed framework he is, by default, acknowledging that CO2 does have some effect.
By comparison my understanding is that CO2 has no effect on temperatures and that the reverse is actually the case.
CO2 levels in atmosphere are a function of atmospheric temperature.
Lord Monckton has done a great job, but we now need to beat the IPCCCCC over the head with the actual science that is involved in the situation.
KK
152
Very good! The atmosphere\sea surface temperature; where the interchange of liquid\gas and H2O\CO2 equilibrate! What is left is to understand that spontaneous thermal EMR flux can be only unidirectional or zero, as with all flux (by definition)! 🙂 Atmospheric temperature lapse is a function of the ideal gas law; NOT EMR!
All the best!-will-
71
Close Will, the base lapse rate is set by the ideal gas law but the apparent lapse rate is influenced by energy movement from the surface to space and other gains and losses like UV heating in the stratosphere some of those gains and losses are EMR.
The biggest error in climate science though is the ridiculous assumption that EMR in = EMR out. That isn’t even remotely true. The earth’s motion around the sun is 200 billion times the energy as a whole year of sunlight if just 1PPM of that kinetic energy leaked into the climate it would still be 200000 times solar insolation. The moon causes tides in the atmosphere, oceans and crust that add frictional heat, how much is that. The idea that incoming emr is the only source of energy is absurd.
Wave energy in the ocean is many times that which arrives from the sun where does that come from. What about the energy in the 400kph super cyclone velocity jet stream that constantly circles the planet, where is that energy from, where does it go when it degrades?
EMR out does NOT equal EMR in: EMR out = EMR in + gains – losses , its a mere coincidence that these two are measured to be roughly the same because for earth the gains are approximately the same as the losses.
The basic premise of the GHG hypothesis is that if EMR in exceeds EMR out then the earth must be heating. This is fatally flawed it’s not remotely true.
81
OK good to discuss! The required atmospheric temperature lapse in any gravitational field is determined by the difference/ratio in the logarithmic pressure/altitude v.s. density/altitude, called the isentropic exponent. 6/4 for monatomic (He) gas to 7/5 for di-atomic gas. Approaching unity for weird crap like UF6, or esters This was all well known before Fat Svante Arrhenius claimed BS about atmospheric CO2! The Earth’s compressible fluid atmosphere is ten-thousand times more complex than the beguine Earth oceans fluid dynamics! You have been so throughly SCAMMED! Please look ashamed, like someone who grabbed boobs of porno GAL! 🙂
31
Not in my world Will, absent energy transfers the sum of Kinetic and potential energy has to be a constant so as it gets higher it must get colder because as the PE rises the KE must fall. Potential energy is fixed by m g and h, and can’t vary at a particular height, but as convection occurs the kinetic energy CAN change. So this leads to the variability in the lapse rate as kinetic energy (heat) rises through the atmosphere, mostly by convection because heat (KE) moves from higher temps to lower temps in a way that means total energy must rise with altitude IE when the earth is shedding heat.
This can all be deduced from first principles, it’s just an application of energy conservation (as is the gas law)
But the Energy Balance error is indisputable EMRout = EMRin + Gains – Losses. But unless you know all the gains and losses the balance is unknown and AGW remains unproven nonsense.
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bobl May12,18:22:27 pm
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bobl May12,18:22:27 pm
Thank you bobl, good to discuss some detail withheld by Marxist educators! Can you state your definition of the difference between ‘kinetic’ and ‘potential’ energies? Both the Clausius virial theorem and Newton’ kinetic do so so; but not the same, and nothing like what is taught in post modern college. Most important; now taught is KE = mv²/2 (linear) but Newton’s precise, is instead:
KE = δ(mv)/δ(t), which also holds for aggregate scalar statistical compressible gas molecule change in momentum! (temperature)
Your gravitational PE is correct, but only for mass that will\would be ‘accelerated’ via gravitational attraction (weight) but not for surround compressible fluid statically ‘compressed’ via gravitational attraction, (no atmospheric weight).
Earth’s lower compressed atmosphere remains an ‘isopotential’, with gravitational laps (restricting vertical conductive heat transfer). This static lapse is much decreased via isothermal conversion of latent heat of evaporation; back to airborne water colloid, (clouds). The atmosphere rapidly dispatchs such power to space via EMR from the new near opaque cloud!
Energy conservation is not required in a gravitational field Emmy Noether (1915); and certainly not in a (dissipative) system continually dispatching ‘entropy’ via spontaneous EMR flux to lower ‘radiance’ space! Your Climate Clowns are skilled at spouting “LOOK Squirrel”, while re-arranging three tabletop walnut shells!! 🙂
All the best!-will-
11
Bob,
Glad you hammered that point about EMR _ IN OUT.
The use of incoming solar energy by plant life on earth and in the oceans means that a lot of that energy is locked up, never to return “out”, at least in the short-term.
As you say. In is not equal to Out.
There is also energy needed to create winds and atmospheric turbulence that must be considered.
KK
30
Yes KK even science newbies should be able to see that. I have calculated that plant life absorbs about 3 Watts per square meter, animal life emits about the same as plants absorb. The rotation of the earth causes the equator to be gravitationally higher than the poles and water flows from the equator to the poles driven by gravity, this kinetic energy is dissipated in what – Gigawatts of heat of friction. The tides slosh the oceans around causing more friction. Entropy, ie when a rock cracks from heat it absorbs energy. Heat driven wind converts heat to kinetic energy which serves only to push against the earths orbit and rotation taking heat out of the climate. All in all there are incalculable forces pushing heat into the climate and taking it out which have to be in equilibrium over all, but the takeaway is that EMR is not the only way that heat can be removed or added.
The Climate Scientists ignore Engineering rule number 1 – There are always losses. IE EMR out=EMR in assumes the climate is lossless and that is NEVER correct.
60
And what you have said there is the very basis for rejecting, so called climate models.
The so called Climate Scientists have not identified all of the factors involved in maintenance/increase/reduction of Earth’s atmospheric temperature and appear to have discarded one of the principal factors as being neutral as far as this analysis is concerned.
The Sun is NOT a neutral factor. Together with orbital mechanics it helps describe 97% of atmospheric temperature variations under discussion.
In modeling, there is a “black box” where all neutral factors are placed so as to cut down on pointless analysis.
For the IPCCCCC to effectively place the Sun in the black box and place Human Origin CO2 upfront as the lead factor is deceitful.
It shows that the intention of the use of the model is to manipulate public opinion.
Any claim that “models” show the rise in atmospheric temperature as being due to increased CO2 levels, is fraudulent.
30
And what you have said there is the very basis for rejecting, so called climate models.
The so called Climate Scientists have not identified all of the factors involved in maintenance/increase/reduction of Earth’s atmospheric temperature and appear to have discarded one of the principal factors as being neutral as far as this analysis is concerned.
The Sun is NOT a neutral factor. Together with orbital mechanics it helps describe 97% of atmospheric temperature variations under discussion.
In modeling, there is a “black box” where all neutral factors are placed so as to cut down on pointless analysis.
For the IPCCCCC to effectively place the Sun in the black box and place Human Origin CO2 upfront as the lead factor is deceitful.
It shows that the intention of the use of the model is to manipulate public opinion.
Any claim that “models” show the rise in atmospheric temperature as being due to increased CO2 levels, is misleading.
KK
40
Thanks bobl.
I think that is most likely correct.
Do you have any explanation for the lapse rate seen by the weather balloons launched from the Australian sites on the coast of Antarctica?
http://www.bom.gov.au/aviation/observations/aerological-diagrams/
Compare with say Darwin. In Darwin the lapse rate is fairly constant at about 7C/km up to 16km. In Antartica the atmosphere is isothermal from about 9-10km up to 16km.
20
This crops up every now and again, 1. the atmosphere is a thinner layer at the poles and certain gasses eg Methane can also freeze/rain out. The upper atmosphere where the air is thin enough is also heated/ionised by UV and the solar wind and is very energetic (Hot), this upper atmosphere heating which convects *down* toward the colder tropopause (as well as radiating).
The Lapse rate in effect is just the rate of decrease/increase of KE with height as energy exchanges between PE and KE. If there is no KE to begin with, then it can’t decrease with height and the air doesn’t rise. For example if a planet was at absolute zero then the atmosphere would be a thin layer of frozen gas at the surface with a zero lapse rate. Also if we have two hot ends and a cold middle all the energy flows from both hot ends to the middle at rates depending on the differences between the temperatures taking into account that PE becomes extra “Temperature” as air falls and PE takes Temperature away when air rises…
Back on earth a gas that was once hot (say at the equator) can can also travel laterally at the same height and lose KE at the poles but keep its Potential energy (height). That causes the lapse rate to tend to isothermal at the poles.
21
Yes of course, reduction in gas temperature at constant pressure indicates a reduction in the most probable, average, and RMS velocity of each and every gas molecule of every species in that mixture. Ponderous UF6 molecules need change velocity little, as ever-body else ist getting da hell outta da way! Dats like running your ‘smart car’ inta da locomotive! 🙂
OTOH the lower atmosphere (troposphere) remains gravitationally at zero potential as the atmosphere expresses no ‘weight’, Archimedies (272BC)! In lifting a ship from the water The only atmospheric volume displacement occurs in the thermo-sphere that has no mass! 🙂
All the best!~-will-
21
Indeed! However, exiting atmospheric ‘entropy’ via EMR to whatever is the universe is one of the few ways to prevent entropy accumulation from all of the local ‘work’ done! Although you propose that the Earth’s obital angular momentum may be considered as some sort of ‘energy’; the (‘power’) momentum change is angular and cyclic! This may be considered ‘work’ involving ‘entropy’; such cannot be considered an accumulation of ‘power’ Joules = W·t over a whole year! 🙂 If the Earth crashes into the moon such δ(mv)/δt likely forms as ‘heat'(energy)!
All the best! -will-
10
I did not accumulate power just kinetic energy which is balanced by gravitational energy. The earth Does lose energy and the gravitational system is NOT lossless.
00
EG the earth has a gravitational potential energy with respect to the sun as well.
00
Not only oceans; but all surface plant life suck up atmospheric CO2 for growth; while dispatching latent heat via evaporating root water; to keep from turning brown! This clever leaf thinks that precipitation after dispatching latent to nearby upward lower temperature N2 molecules Isa great way to recycle stuff! Did I never think of that ’cause I are mere leaf; rather than learned sky\scie-ntist? 🙂
51
KK, Will and bobl,
The CO2 horsesh*t has to stop.
40
Were doing our best.
🙂
40
Giggle! 🙂
10
Stop giggling.
This is serious.
10
Perhaps, but only through satire, ridicule, and pointing out each incompetent scientific error (giggle), can this SCAM be suppressed. Any SCAM is perpetrated only upon BELIEVERS 🙂
00
Ross, You might find this current tutorial interesting. https://www.heartland.org/_template-assets/documents/publications/Happer%20Koonin%20Lindzen%20climate%20Tutorial.pdf
20
Thanks for putting that up Don.
Seems to cover a lot of stuff but will take a while to skim through.
KK
30
Thanks Don A.
I think Lord Monckton also put in a “paper” to that court case as well.
It was really interesting how the Judge approached the case asking for outside technical input and given the Judge himself had an understanding of technical details through his hobby.
30
Re the California solar panel mandate
“Analysis: California’s Solar Panel Mandate Lowers CO2 Emissions by 0.32%”
Analysis: California’s Solar Panel Mandate Lowers CO2 Emissions by 0.32%
Looks like much ado about nothing
50
Except it makes lots of money for the CAGW scam artists. It also keeps the global warming scientists busy maintaining and spreading their fake research.
40
Painting the roof and road white might have a greater effect … 🙂
30
Woha! can this apply also to each and every congress-critter for intentional and deliberate violation of sworn oath of office by each congress-varment? 🙂 Da serfs are getting restless!
31
Lowering ‘absorptivity\emissivity’ can reduce the power transfer ‘to’ via insolation, for a while! In Earth’s oxidizing atmosphere, everything approaches 63% emissivity, if you have not the sailor to keep polishing the brass! :-).
41
Estimated, projected, promoted, virtue signalled. But ,never,ever, measured.
30
Is measured but result dismal! How ya gona sell dat?
31
Looks like this could be a useful quote around “ephemeral energy”. Anyone read it?
” In The Tender Ship, Manhattan Project engineer and Virginia Tech professor Arthur Squires used Shute’s account of the R100 and R101 as a primary illustration of his thesis that governments are usually incompetent managers of technology projects.[4]”
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nevil_Shute
20
No, but I have read The Slide Rule.
Yes, total incompetence by the government crew. The only good thing was that the politician pushing the (much delayed) project was on board when The R101 crashed and burned.
It was, and is, symptomatic that the successful private venture R100 was scrapped. At least it released Barnes Wallis to design airplanes which were far better than the Air Ministry asked for.
30
Bombs too
40
He really shone with doing bombs. He designed the seismic Grand Slam or Earthquake bomb which which proved very successful at wrecking armoured factories and combat infrastructure.
It was used to destroy the V2 factory, bury the V3 guns, sink the battleship Tirpitz and turn the U-boats’ protective pens at St. Nazaire into useless junk.
A 22,000 pound (ten tons) vertical projectile :-), it was originally intended to be dropped from 40,000 ft but most were delivered from 25,000ft (about the max height the Lancaster could reach)
and they proved very effective.
Another one was Tallboy: weighing a mere 6 tons. One of the reasons for the success of D-day was use of 25 of these bombs to collapse a railway tunnel near Saumur to prevent AFV (Armoured Fighting Vehicles aka tanks) from being sent to Normandy. No point bombing the tracks, they could be repaired in a few days or weeks, but dropping the tunnel, now that was a long term solution.
50
I also thought that the Grand Slam bombs destroyed the sub pens, but a documentary on the sub pens showed that they are completely intact. The bombs apparently only penetrated the first layer of concrete roof, leaving the internal (separated) layer intact. Those roofs were very thick!
00
How about ephemeral quote around “useful bat shat (saltpeter) i.e.energy”.
11
“I, For One, Welcome Our New Self-Driving Overlords”
“Over the last two years, researchers in China and the United States have begun demonstrating that they can send hidden commands that are undetectable to the human ear to Apple’s Siri, Amazon’s Alexa and Google’s Assistant. Inside university labs, the researchers have been able to secretly activate the artificial intelligence systems on smartphones and smart speakers, making them dial phone numbers or open websites. In the wrong hands, the technology could be used to unlock doors, wire money or buy stuff online — simply with music playing over the radio.”
http://www.smalldeadanimals.com/index.php/2018/05/11/i-for-one-welcome-our-new-self-driving-overlords-8/
Still want one?
50
Already there have been situations where driver-less cars were remotely taken over by someone else. Imagine when robots come into the picture. They can have all the built-in safeguards they like but there’s always someone clever enough to find a way around them.
60
How can that be? ” A robot may not harm a human being, or, through inaction….”
I’ll bet the ‘three laws’ jog memories for a lot of us older folks, and might be
a useful thought for millenials. Key to the books, left out of the movies, ain’t it a shame.
10
The first law is flawed.
“A robot may not injure a human being or, through inaction, allow a human being to come to harm.”
This could be considered a contradiction or circular argument but I believe the intent is to allow a robot to harm or kill a human in order to protect another human from being harmed by the former human. However, the robot could make the mistake in deciding to harm the wrong person because the person harming the other human is actually doing so in self defence but the robot didn’t compute it that way. I can think of other issues. It’s time to give Isaac Asimov the flick. His laws are not practical, incomplete and too simplistic.
10
The First Law was well and truly violated in the 70s when some poor sod was spot welded to a chassis in a Japanese auto factory.
00
‘Darwinites will need to find their ugg boots and dust off their doonas next week as well, with minimum temperatures on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday dropping to 19, 18 and 18 respectively.
‘Other areas across the Top End will also feel the frosty effects of the much-anticipated Dry with lows of 15 expected on Monday night in places such as Noonamah, Batchelor and Humpty Doo.’
NT News
60
Our local paper online last night promised us a cold windy morning too. BOM says 28 kph wind but it never got below 20 deg. That’s not cold, even for Townsvillagers.
51
2.5 here on the verandah earlier here in western Qld.
Where is that global warming
70
In the coming week Qld will experience cooler weather, but its now obvious that a regional cooling trend has begun.
Jennifer Marohasy informed Greg Hunt in June 2014 of her concerns.
‘As part of ongoing research into natural rainfall patterns in Queensland, Professor John Abbot and I have been studying the temperature record for northeastern Australia, as temperature is a key input variable in our neural network models (e.g. Abbot and Marohasy 2014).
‘Considering the data from the late 1800s until 1960, a cooling trend is evident, followed by warming between 1960 and 2001. In contrast, the last 12 years show quite dramatic cooling. All three periods have occurred while greenhouse gases, particularly carbon dioxide, have been increasing in concentration in the atmosphere.’
90
Is it still dry where you are, Another Ian? The prolonged drought in Qld has been of serious concern. All the rain that got attention in the news earlier in the year wasn’t widespread.
20
Bushkid
We were looking at an awful winter, even worse than the shellacing of 2012-15. We lucked out and got two reasonable falls close enough together that there was still some growth from the first. So we have proper grass growth on the cleared country. Being destocked to around 30% we’ll likely handle the winter.
WRT the current tree legislation our leasehold country is a crystal ball look of what they will likely achieve. Woody regrowth to high canopy cover (so ground layer potential product ion of around 25%. Combined with high kangaroo grazing pressure. That country has basically no grass in it and hasn’t even produced wiregrass seedlings – has a low ground cover of broadleafs like sida and abutilon. The lane through that part is equally bare so it WASN’T grazing pressure from domestic animals. No rangeland goat population, no sheep since early 2000’s and no cattle since early 2018.
“ALP – From Tree of Knowledge to Forest of Ignorance.”
30
Coincidently I’ve just found that
“Hiding the Decline” by A.W. Montford is not available through the Qld library system
30
Another Ian,
Is your verandah correctly screened?
10
TRM
We fail on that. But it was a dawn reading after an overnight stabilization period
00
I don’t know, but mine has a cricket bat leaning up against the rail just waiting for the next election. Those who live in QLD need to realise that Malcolm Roberts is recontesting the senate this election and we need him to be elected as about the only useful sceptical politician in the last 30 years.
Are you about Mal? Take a bow
20
Voilà! Thus is global warming/weirdness/climate change proven.
QED.
50
As you know its only climate change when the weather is unusually warm.
60
Last night Perth’s BOM proclaimed that we had the warmest May Day evahhhh since 56 years, but when we had a really cool summer 17-18, they only specified the year range back to 1998, when Perth’s temp monitoring site was moved. It appears the the BOM moves the goalposts when talking about warming as compared to cooling.
10
Does anyone here have a good knowledge of NBN “service”.
I changed to NBN a month or so ago and it has deteriorated since to the point where it is almost unusable and the phone doesn’t even work. I dial a number and receive a message “We advise that calls to this number are currently unavailable from your service”.
Using Ookla speed test I get 10 Mbps which while not the promised speed would be acceptable. No way am I getting that. Using testmy.com I get 167Kbs and “Your speed had a 186% middle variance”. This sounds pessimistic because although it takes too long to load the page it can stream youtube videos. Downloading MP4 videos that my brother likes to send me is well nigh impossible. They seem to start at a reasonable download rate and then decay to the point where the download stops with a message “the network connection was lost”.
My Mac is a couple of years old with modest memory that is not expandable and possibly has a lot of clutter but I am not geek enough to clean it up.
I’ve heard horror stories with NBN but never expected to live one.
Can anyone help?????
40
Hanrahan
We went NBN satellite after a Microsoft download axed the modem we had to Telstra wireless. The basic service seems about the same in speed (no tests) and fine otherwise. We lost service a couple of days ago when someone plowed the provider’s cable.
Plus we lost landline in a separate incident. Even though we went NBN on that it still uses the HRCS radio system – which incidently seemed to be a separate empire within Telstra with its own email for fault reports. That no longer works for us officially as we’re not with the big T. But we are connected by cable to a neighbouring radio tower so I can report the neighbour’s number so it actually still works. Ain’t bureaucracy wonderful?
I also emailed the official provider who’s reply said they’d get to it within 5 days. Actually was about 24 hours but was fixed by then. Didn’t sound like they knew about HRCS either.
As near as I can work out the satellite side had early capacity problems but seems ok since they hoisted another sat.
30
If you;re not familiar with HRCS – it uses radio links instead of wires. Pretty reliable over the years, with good fixing by the Telstra crew since we’ve been on it.
Fault finding sounds like a problem. IIRC there are 90-ish radio towers on this system. One fault is a noise which sounds like someone welding next door. Which apparently can come from any of the towers – not the one near you.
30
Replace the phone with a tin can and string ? We have similar problems here but our internet is wireless and I’ve ditched the landline for two mobile SIM card only plans of ten bucks each ,one is a Telstra card one is Optus both from southern phone .
I get unlimited normal number calls and one gig on the Optus and the misses gets $500 credit and half a gig not bad for $10 per phone .
As for the internet what do you expect for something that was created on the back of a beer coaster by Labor politicians.
50
Contact your ISP. If they refuse to help there are escalation procedures you can follow. As for the NBN itself my area isn’t expected to have it for a year or two. Just as well as I’m very happy with my current broadband cable availability and speeds – around 55 down and 6 up; was 30/1 until recently when Telstra for some odd reason decided to up the speeds without letting me know. I only found out after reading it on whirlpool where they said all one had to do was to reboot the modem.
30
For the sake of brevity I didn’t cover my contacts with the ISP but there have been a few of course but without the phone [I ditched my mobile when I retired] I have to drive to an Optus store to report. I’m on my way again now.
How does one escalate?
20
Hanrahan:
Drive into the store. That will get attention.
70
Drive over Kevin Rudd on the way to the store.
He started the shambles. Yet another of his litany of disasters.
30
Reality is you cant really escalate that much, as you have no relationship with the NBN (and to be faor its not a rolled gold certainty that its theor issue)
Two things come to mind:
a) threaten and be prepared to act on on switching ISPs, if they arent delivering;
b) write to you local federal member highlighting a summarised timeline and asking for escalation /help
If you are in a 4G mobile area you can access the Internet via a mobile phone or a “dongle” using the 4G network and get quite respectable speeds. We use it often when travelling.
40
When I had a problem (different to yours) I first escalated to the office of the CEO (Telstra). Someone contacted me personally and said they would now handle the issue, and they did. It was resolved in a couple of days. The next stop would have been the TIO:
Resolving complaints
20
Hanrahan
A thing I just learnt – which might not work if you’re not on satellite
The modem for those has a circular indicator light which is usually blue. Apparently if it is not blue the fault is NBN, if blue and not working it is your ISP
30
Regardless of who is at fault, the resident has to contact the ISP. As was stated before NBN does not deal with end customers – they are a wholesaler. It says on their “contact us” web page:
If you wish to report a fault with your nbn™ service, you’ll need to contact your phone or internet provider.
https://www2.nbnco.com.au/corporate-information/contact-us-form.html
10
We had a problem with our phone, recently, with dropouts and a broken up voice out signal, according to our hapless friends on the receiving end. To cut a long story short, we were advised by the Telstra techy guy to turn the modem electricity supply off, then restart it. It worked, although there were a few anxious minutes waiting for the modem to reboot itself.
We now have a phone service functioning better than ever! The incoming and outgoing signals are loud and clear.
If this does not work for you, then you probably need a visit from your friendly ISP repair guy.
40
I have a Telstra NBN modem using the phone twisted pair. The old phone plugs in the modem and they also provided a new wireless phone. All have worked flawlessly for the 6 months or so since installation. We have had up to eight devices connected with at least two of them streaming on-demand and there have been no delays.
There have been a few times when the ISP has lost connection but less than once a month and that could be at Telstra’s end.
20
Our experience with NBN fixed wireless has been very good also. They have to deal with a mixed bag of technologies, locations and ISPs and its sounds like Hanrahan has got a short straw somehwere along the line.
10
Meanwhile things are getting hot on the big island of Hawaii. Recent reports say more than 20 new vents have opened up. One estimate from the USGS (US Geological Survey) was saying there’s potential for rocks as heavy as 5 tons to be hurled into the air. I don’t know whether something that heavy will be thrown around like a ping pong ball but Mt. Saint Helens blew off the entire top of the cone in one big burp, flattening timber many miles away. Unbelievable energy down there is just waiting for a chance to do what it wants to do.
I don’t know what will happen and probably neither does the USGS but I think if your field of study is volcanic activity this will be your best opportunity since Mt. Saint Helens. And if you’re thing is to run from danger that new activity looks like a very good place to run from.
This is a selection of what’s on the net about it.
80
I visited Mt. Saint Helens a few years after its 1980 eruption. Everything near the mountain was covered in gray ash making it look like a moonscape. The eruption was triggered by an earthquake which caused a land slide on one side of the mountain releasing the pressure that had built up in the mountain which then destroyed what remained of that side of the mountain and a portion of the top of the mountain. Since the side of the mountain was gone, when I was there you could clearly see the dome reforming over the magma chamber with a good pair of field glasses from the observation area that was the closest point to the mountain we were allowed to go. Steam was rising from the dome which made me a little nervous to be that close to the mountain.
If I understand it correctly, the worry with the Hawaiian volcano is that the magma chamber will drain down to below the water table allowing water to rush in to the magma chamber which could result in a steam explosion that could loft large rocks into the air. It sounds like you don’t want to be very close to the volcano if that happens!
40
I remember all the news coverage and the photos of Mt. Saint Helens. Moonscape is a good analogy.
Thanks for refreshing those details for me.
As I remember there was one man, a reclusive sort of guy who lived up on the side of the mountain and he refused to heed the warning and leave. A search was done as soon after the explosion as they could but no sign of him has ever been found as far as I know.
Hawaii was formed by a volcano and eruptions on the south and east parts of the island are nothing new. It’s not my specialty by a long way but with only a little understanding of volcanoes I would stay away from that part of the island that’s already known to be actively spewing lava since 1983. Mauna Loa is also a big threat and altogether 5 active volcanoes are part of the recent geological history of just that one island.
The video that caught a solidifying lava flow slowly crossing a road and engulfing a car parked on the other side is only interesting if I’m not there to watch it. If I’m there I’ll be too busy running the other way.
Kauai is the the place to visit. The Garden Island lives up to its name and the Princeville Resort is a magnificent place. No volcanic activity for what, many million years … so long ago that the cone has been completely eroded away on one side and the helicopter tours will fly you right into what’s left of it and hover while you snap pictures. I was amazed at how the pilot could keep us completely motionless relative to the rock only a dozen or so meters away from the rotor blade tips. Scared me a bit actually. But he knew what he was doing. That’s the way to tour a volcano.
20
An interesting thing to note is that California has several significant volcanoes being on the Ring of Fire, which is responsible for the volcano in Hawaii. I would not like to be in California for a number of reasons, and the currently erupting volcano in Hawaii is one of them.
10
On the other hand, I know of no volcanic activity in California for a very long time. Our one and only noteworthy volcanic “mountain” is Mt. Shasta and it hasn’t shown signs of activity since before we have records of California. It’s greatest claim to fame these days is that the top is 14,180 feet (approximately 4,727 meters) above sea level.
On one flight north the captain made a slight detour so he could bank the plane left in a partial turn around Sasta, giving passengers on that side of the plane a good view. From that position it stands out from everything around it almost like it could reach up and shake hands with us as we went by.
And that’s the worst that volcanoes have to offer in California in spite of the evidence scattered all over the desert east of the Coachella valley that there were major eruptions in the distant past. On one drive I found a small chunk of basalt from such an eruption lying on the ground at a rest stop just begging to be picked up and I still have it somewhere. It’s dark black with a slightly shiny surface and riddled with what once were gas bubbles, probably the much hated carbon dioxide.
Naughty volcano…how dare you belch carbon into the atmosphere. 😉
Now Oregon is another animal. There’s still the possibility of renewed activity of Saint Helens, just for starters.
10
Delingpole: Schneiderman – You Don’t Have to Be a Scumbag to Be an Environmentalist, but It Helps…
Not saying there’s no creeps on all sides of politics but the left do have the numbers.
81
Just thinking about it Yonnie I can’t think of one climate realist that has become rich from their stance on CAGW ! There may be one or two possibly but the list of scamsters and frordsters is long and infamous .
71
All the Volcanologists in Auckland are huddled over the network of seismographs at the moment. It’s standing room only there! 🙂
The Auckland fault lines are still quiet. For the moment …
70
Look over your shoulder, its the day after tomorrow.
https://phys.org/news/2018-05-monster-ocean-southern-hemisphere-scientists.html
10
That storm was well south of NZ (last week). It was a strong one with central pressure down around 946 hp and was very tightly wound (really close isobars.) It’s moved slightly east now.
You can see it here on the RHS. It was storms like this which wrecked so many sailing ships in the 19th Century.
20
The economics of rooftop solar depend on cost, location, electricity usage and tariffs.
This RACV website says the cost of a 5 kW system is $10,000 that will provide solar production of 18 kWh per day, or 6570 kWhr per year in Melbourne, a capacity factor of 15%. However this SolarQuotes website estimates a 5kW system will cost $5-9,000 after discount of STCs, depending on quality of panels and installation. Other websites show “special prices” around $4,000 for a 5 kW system, so buyer beware.
STCs (small scale technology certificates) are issued by the Clean Energy Regulator. Their calculator indicates that a 5kW system in southern Victoria is worth 77 STCs based on 13 years until the end of the program in 2030. That equates to a yearly production of 5,900 kWhr. STCs are priced at $40/MWhr and are usually included as a discount off the installed cost and claimed by the seller. STC price could be lower if there is a surplus in the market, so maximum discount for 5kW system is about $3,000.
Let me assume that the installed cost of a 5 kW system in Melbourne is $7,000 after $3,000 subsidy and with a 15% capacity factor produces 6,500 kWhr per year.
What are the costs? Writing off the $7,000 capital over 20 years gives an annual cost of $350. If I borrowed the money at 5% the annual cost is $350. Assume maintenance costs (cleaning, repairs etc) of 3% of the $10,000 installed cost before subsidy equals $300 per year. So total annual costs are $1,000.
What are the savings? If all power is sold into the grid at the Victorian current feed in tariff rate of 11.3 cents/kWhr, that gives income of $735/year. Alternatively, if 25% of power is used in the house, that avoids retail tariff of about 25 cents/kWhr, and income (savings) increases to $955/year. About breakeven with costs.
Or another way of looking at it: Net income $955-$350-$300 = $305 per year gives a 4.3% annual return on investment of $7,000.
But if we eliminated the STC subsidy on the installation, and valued the feed in tariff at a more realistic 7 cents/kWhr, net income would be only $95 giving ROI on $10,000 of only 1%.
Welcome comments on this analysis. It suggests that those of us without rooftop solar are subsidising those with solar by more than $3,000 through higher electricity bills. In addition, the intermittent nature of solar results in lower utilisation of gas generators, and higher network and generator costs.
120
My 5 kw system was never about making money or saving the planet ,it was installed in the hope that our electricity bill would be cheaper because I could no longer work because of a work injury and we looked at ways of reducing our meagre income into the future .
That 18kw per day figure must be a summer figure not an average but then again mine is facing east west .
When we installed it our electricity bill was pushing $900 a quarter and it’s now just over half that on average ,everything here is reliant on electricity so every time you run a tap every time you pull the chain a pump runs .
Part of that reduction in our bill would be due to two of our kids moving out so the true cost of savings is hard to calculate .
Great post Robber and it puts things into perspective for those who want a return on the investment of solar panels but personally I wrote the cost off and was just happy with reduced bills and as for the FIT it amounts to about $50 a quarter for mine which is as I now know being subsidised by by some that can’t afford their own power .
Personally I wouldn’t whinge if they reduced the FIT to zero .
40
Robber:
I would agree. About 8 years ago I worked out that PV solar unsubsidised returned 1% on capital. Fortunately (for me) we had a State Premier called Weatherill and I signed up for 15-19% p.a. return.
Long live Weatherill, preferably somewhere far away and dangerous. The big island of Hawaii sounds just the place for him.
71
I think Weatherill in Hawaii would just upset Pele, and she’d destroy the place. Hawaiians don’t deserve that sort of Devine wrath.
10
I agree with your conclusion that installing rooftop solar to sell power back to the provider at FITs available today is a fool’s errand. I installed a 3.5 KW system [cheaper tham the 5 KW quoted] with four adults in the hose. Mrs H and I are retired and she watches TV quite a bit and I’m on the puter, an adult son still lives at home and spends too much time gaming, and I try to use my bore pump when the sun is shining so we use a lot of our generation ourselves so our system should pay itself off, plus I had the cash in the bank getting SFA interest.
But it ain’t working, the inverter has pooped itself and I have no idea how long ago that happened. Ain’t technology wunnerful?
30
You can check if your importing or exporting electricity from the dumb meter and inverter or if your with some retailers you can check via a type of dashboard .
Have noticed the odd day on mine with no generation at all so I check every now and again .
20
I have 3kW on-grid and 3kW off-grid. Maintenance cost is next to nothing. Usually through summer I get onto the roof with a sudsy bucket plus broom and clean off dust if there has not been rain for a while. Panels are required to be inclined and they are cleaned during rain. After a dry spell they might have a dust skum from dew and the occasional bird dropping. I check the balance of the battery on the off-grid system twice yearly. That takes two minutes and I have a balancer I can connect in a second and leave on till the next day if they need balancing. I disconnect the balance because a some battery failures are known to be are caused by faulty balancers. I test the loss of supply trip once a year – takes two minutes.
The original grid-tie inverter failed after three years but was replaced on warranty at no cost to me. It was not replaced directly as the original Chinese made inverter had a card fault that could have been easily replaced but the maker had gone bust because the problem was by design and all units failed the same way. At the time of replacement I was told there was a warehouse full of said inverters with the same fault. Apart from that fault the inverter had a large transformer and appeared a lot of hardware compared to the replacement. The replacement unit is a German design but built in Thailand (like BMW cars).
I figured the installation would last my lifetime. Both have been the best investment I made ahead of retirement. Most of my pension funds are held in term deposits. Initially they earned around 6% pa and that was my investment threshold. Both have returned better than that. That was somewhat a benefit of getting in early and making use of the attractive subsidies. I do not pay for electricity and excess income from electricity goes toward paying for most of the gas used in heating. My vestment threshold would be 3% in line with TDs at present if I was not in retirement. A 35 year payback is no longer relevant to me and might exceed the useful life of the panels although there are panels older than 40 years still producing within spec.
There are a few factors you should keep in mind:
1. Electricity prices are more likely to increase than fall. As far as I can see, those pulling the strings do not understand the cost consequence of intermittency. (I did not when I purchased my original on-grid system)
2. You can shift load to some degree to use more from your own solar generation. Setting wash times for clothing and dishes are examples. Those with a pool can use a solar switch to operate the pump. I know one person uses a slow cooker for more cooking through the day.
3. Most people do not look at their power usage hour by hour. Understanding what uses power and when it is used can help maximise the value of your solar. It can also be used to reduce electricity cost irrespective of solar. Standby losses can be significant because they are ever present. I get great value from my Smartmeter as I get the data compiled for every 30 minute billing interval. I also have a low cost through-plug power meter that I can leave connected for a few days or few weeks.
4. Other investment in thermal control can have high return. Good blinds and drapes that are easily controlled can make use of sun as well as insulate. House insulation and sealing can dramatically reducing heating and cooling needs. Through this Melbourne summer our house did not exceed 28C inside at any time. We only have an evaporative cooler and it was only run on maybe a dozen evenings and overnight twice. On a sunny winter day we do not use any heating. On a sunless day we turn the central heating on if we are home and the temperature is below 15C. It is set at 19C and gets turned off at 10pm. My gas storage heater is set at 50C to reduce standby losses.
5. The assessment period for STCs is already declining so the longer you wait the smaller the subsidy. The main impact of adding to the volume of STCs is reducing the price of LGCs so it hurts the wind generators. They are already feeling the pinch. STCs are lower cost than LGCs so that have lower impact on retail price.
6. AEMO appear to be recognising that solar close to loads makes more sense than remote wind generators that require significant enhancement to transmission infrastructure. The consumer pays for any enhancements. Adding to local solar is currently a good thing in the context of the existing RET.
7. If there is high take up of solar in your area the inverters can regularly cut out on overvoltage. This has already become common in SA. The only way to continue to generate is to have storage. At present the only solution is to use something like a powerwall or a licensed electrician can set up his own battery at lower cost. What we may see are more devices that come with batteries that are charged through the day but are mostly used at night. There could even be small storage units that power a TV for example. It will depend on the pricing of batteries over the coming years. So far their prices bottom in AUD terms about 5 years ago.
8. I do not see dramitc reduction in cost of installations so there is likely little opportunity to prices to fall.
It is good to get recent references for your proposed supplier’installer. Some people have taken literally years to get their system grid connected and properly metered. The company that installed my on-grid system some years ago was organised and used experienced site people. The worked with care and professionally. It took two weeks for the meter and inspection as I predated the Victorian Smartmeter Statewide program. I remember at the time thinking how much more professional the solar people were than the insulation installers that I had to monitor every minute. This link gives a starting point:
https://www.productreview.com.au/c/solar-power-providers.html
30
Good points Rick , I had three meters , I had the old type with spinning disk when the solar was installed then a month later they installed the smart meter then two months later the replaced the smart meter with one that was configured to solar .
The meter installer told me both units were the same but noone in regional vic was able to programme for the solar so that’s why the change ..
10
Rick,
oddly, even though I usually write about the shortcomings of rooftop solar, I am always interested when reading your experiences with rooftop solar power, as it gives a greater degree of accuracy that when you read uninformed journalist’s comments. So thanks for your input about this. You have obviously done it for all the right reasons.
I would also mention here that rooftop solar power is only of use to the actual home which has the system installed, and cannot be applied to the overall power generation/power consumption data as its primary use will only ever be in that Residential sector of consumption, and that only makes up 25% of power consumption, (38% in the U.S.) so rooftop solar power will only ever be a niche application of a small percentage of 25% of consumption, so in the wider scheme of things, contributing very little to the overall electrical power data.
You will hear that now, Rooftop Solar power has 7800MW in Nameplate, and that’s a lot, but look at the total power generation at its Peak, around Midday, and you’ll be hard pressed (even in Summer) to find days when it is higher than 3500MW, and right now, at its daily Peak for today, it’s only managing just on 2000MW. All that from 1.8 Million tiny little generators, with virtually all that power being consumed by the residences with those panels, spread across the vast area of the whole of Australia. At this evening’s Peak of around 25000MW to 26000MW at 6PM, rooftop solar power will be delivering ZERO. That current Peak of 2000MW for Solar Power is still only 8% of what is actually being consumed right now, and that’s the best it will be for any day, and only for around four hours at most.
Again, thanks for your input on this subject.
Tony.
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Tony
I admit that the burden that has fallen on those who do not own a roof was something I did not realise until I understood the real cost of intermittency. That realisation followed the installation of my off-grid system as I progressively arrived at the capacity factor needed to get 99.9% reliability – just over 4% with my off-grid system. So I am a bit like robert r in that regard. My FIT is a huge benefit now but I forked out $9000 for my 3kW on-grid system some 8 years ago now. It had something like $3000 in direct subsidy and the FIT is hugely favourable.
It appears very few people appreciate the cost of intermittency. I have spent this last week pointing out the problem with comments at renewenergy without much success.
https://reneweconomy.com.au/victoria-wind-and-solar-farms-warned-of-curtailment-81267/#comment-3896935562
It has become an unusually long thread because PeterF, who I believe has made a few comments on JoNova site, kept responding. The moderator even got involved.
Rooftop is just another generator. AEMO are already forecasting it will reduce minimum demand in SA to ZERO by 2024. This chart from their 2017 report on SA:
https://1drv.ms/u/s!Aq1iAj8Yo7jNgnvDGKc6pGRlaHoI
Note the olive green zone, representing rooftop, meets the entire NEM demand. NEM do not schedule this generation. Its only control is local over voltage.
Then there is the usage behind the meter in mosts States. Most people who instal rooftop solar get smart about how they shift load. My FIT works the other way in that I aim to maximise export so washing is first thing in the day and dishwasher at bed time.
It is apparent that there is little prospect of Australia changing tack. Australia will become South Australia from a power supply perspective. On the other hand I get the impression the distributors and possibly AEMO see more potential in rooftop solar than remote wind generators. That should mean they will not be spending huge sums on new transmission – The ISP will be an interesting read. I was encouraged by their direct request to turn my 1 page memo to a formal document that they could place on the submission list. I was not alone in pointing out the serious problems with intermittency.
So I encourage anyone with a roof to consider solar as it reduces the income from wind generators by lowering the price of LGCs. If you do not have a roof then put the question to the property owner or body corporate. At present there are not many locations that require local network upgrades to accept more solar. As noted above there are some in SA and new subdivisions are being designed to handle the peak generation.
The only way heavy industry can survive is to have direct ties to a generator operating outside the NEM. There is talk of industrial parks that achieves this. Link base load and coal generators directly. GPS and BSL operate such an arrangement.
50
Thorough costing I think, the only aspect I would and is the assumed responsibility for repairs and eventual replacement (maybe theoretical given short stays in residences but real for those caught with it). Warranties are short and system life much longer.
The other issue is that output declines over time and components age.
The cross subsidy thing is why we never registered our 3kW system and dont recieve FIT credits. We have a friend who recieves 24c a kWhr from an old installation. He looked puzzled when I asked who he thought paid for those credits.
60
Robber, it does not make a lot of sense to work out the ROI based on feeding all of the generated energy back into the grid, not even at 25%. While that ROI calculation might have been the basis of many decisions some years ago, it is not now. Very little rooftop solar feeds back into the grid in the overall picture as Tony often points out, not enough to make any sort of impact on coal or pricing (due to FITs paid). The FITs offered are much closer to the wholesale average prices now. You quote 7c but if retailers could get it at that tho they would be scrambling for it. The average wholesale electricity in the NEM is probably between 8.5 and 11.5 depending on State. Many retailer now limit the amount that an installation can feed back into the grid whereas it was originally 10kW per phase and people did it for the ROI based on big FITs. Some retailers wont pay any money for excess power. Your calculations seem to imply that you (as a non solar household) have to pay solar households $3,000. That is misleading. If any one household decides not to install solar it makes no improvement to your cost, in fact it slightly increases your costs. Your costs are determined by the Government imposed RET that every retailer has to pay, it is not proportional to the number of solar rooftops, in fact it is slightly opposite as Rick mentions here and I have mentioned in other posts. If there were zero rooftop solar installations the mandated RET would ensure you were paying the very same or even more as $65 or $85 certificates had to be purchased instead of the rooftop STCs. Could you re-run your calcs using more realistic figures for percentage feed in, FIT vs avg. wholesale elec price to retailer, and the difference in costs for the STCs and LGCs and let us know the cost or benefit to the non-solar of another user deciding to install a rooftop solar or not. It should show a benefit to the non-user. One of the biggest beneficiaries of the rooftop solar would be the installer and the customer is paying for most of that not the non-users.
20
also Robber, if you want to get a feel for the cost of the components, the panels are around $1 per watt at the high end and an inverter and some switches will be $2k so around $7k of bits. Now as you point out it will earn 77 certificates and the installer will give you maybe $30 each for those if he is feeling generous but likely less (that is your ‘subsidy’) so all up maybe $2.3k ‘after subsidy discount’. So that means the before subsidy price the installer is saying the system is worth is $12k+ so that equates to an installation cost of $5k. That sounds a little high to me.
21
This a snippet from a Nov ’15 quote. Things are unlikely to have changed materially since.
Product Details:System Size :3.42 KW
Inverter :Bosch BPT-S 3.0
Panels :12 x 285 W
Brand :LG 285w MonoX2
STC’s:70
PRICING:Standard System Price:$9,055.00 Before STC’s
Less STC’s Assigned $2,555.00
Net Price:$6,500.00
I found what looked like a current quote for STCs @ $35 V $36.50 in my quote. And the Bosch inverter is dead. Who’s surprised? My Bosch refrigerator is a heap of junk.
10
FYI, There are many advertisments ( unverified) for 5.0-5.4 kw systems (20x270w panels) , fully installed , operational, warranted 10 yrs, etc etc…..for under $5,000 Au.
10
You can always by cheap, solar in no exception
00
Sure,, and there is always a better spec system..
But with a lfetime warrantee, licienced installers, etc etc….
6.0kW for $3999 Au. !
Just saying..if you are looking for the best payback, you do not use the highest price …use a typical current one.
http://hellosolar.com.au/?gclid=EAIaIQobChMIq8CayNGB2wIVhR0rCh32ZQ8NEAAYAyAAEgKYMPD_BwE
And yes i understand its being subsidised by the local pensioners, —- which is one reason i dont have solar !
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Wow you are even more enthusiastic than their advertising 🙂
Lifetime warranty is on install only not the product, they claim platinum tier 1 product but dont name them (always interested in Tier 1 , according to who), licensed installers shouldnt even have to be mentioned.
Payback has zero to do with lowest or highest price , its cost benefit over time. They may be quite good but the info they put on their site is superficial.
00
I recently attended the Lake Goldsmith Steam Rally in Victoria and I thought I’d share some of the videos I took.
The next rally is in six months.
http://www.lakegoldsmithsteamrally.org.au/
https://youtu.be/krP5d7_Y810
https://youtu.be/fw9z_OTBWYM
https://youtu.be/FkFFJLNsVhY
https://youtu.be/_Eol7b65o0Y
https://youtu.be/K9x04425hmQ
https://youtu.be/LZZRa7_L7e8
https://youtu.be/SqcizxBIpK4
https://youtu.be/E1tWicF6K28
https://youtu.be/SFoqgyG0xZI
https://youtu.be/gFrUJtxbDtY
https://youtu.be/_B370094j5Y
https://youtu.be/OQpFZQbgmE0
https://youtu.be/vfS8cKW8yzI
https://youtu.be/Tknfss-nWTk
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Thanks David,
It looks as if it was a nice weather day. Also lots of interesting stuff. I liked the Steam Shovel and also the steam organ.
00
The Study You Won’t Be Hearing About: No Impact On Groundwater From Fracking.
A very interesting study on origins of CH4 in groundwater before and after drilling, its enough to give lefties gas.
40
Building on top of a volcano is not a good idea.
Latest from Reuters.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-hawaii-volcano/hawaii-braces-for-worse-lava-flows-from-erupting-volcano-idUSKBN1IC27J
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It does have its risks. Auckland is a city built on dozens of so far dormant volcanoes. It’s gonna happen one day.
30
If it happens in South Auckland would it be noticed over business as usual?
00
The Hoodoo Gurus would have known Leilani was not a good idea to name a housing development sitting on top of a volcano.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bUWMWBbEhJA
10
For those with a strong stomach and no grass to watch grow there is a special show on the ABC at 2pm on how to save the Great Barrier Reef .
20
Here’s a plan, sue people who make false claims about it who create negativity that deters tourists from visiting.
50
Where you been hiding Dennis ? Holidays mate ?
10
One of the best disaster films.
Krakatoa – The Last Days – August 1883
https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=74&v=eTw4_DdF8kA
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9 May: Quartz: Hawaii pledges to become carbon neutral by 2045—the most ambitious goal of any US state
by Akshat Rathi
On Tuesday (May 8), Hawaii’s legislature passed two bills (LINK) setting out the most ambitious climate goal of any US state. House bill 2182 (LINK) will create a task force that sets out a plan to make the state carbon neutral “no later than 2045.” House bill 1986 (LINK) will create a carbon-offset program to help the task force meet its target…
The bills will become law when state governor David Ige signs them, and it’s likely that he will…
The state has already passed a law committing itself to be powered entirely by renewables by 2045.
“This is the biggest step forward on climate change any state has yet taken,” said Hawaii representative Chris Lee at a press conference (LINK) after the bills were passed…
To be sure, it’s not clear if the state has thought through how hard a net-zero emissions target is to meet. The bill mentions initiatives such as planting trees and improving soil health as means of sequestering carbon, but not technologies such as carbon capture and storage that are proven to reduce emissions on a larger scale. That’s where the greenhouse-gas sequestration task force will help. It has a 2023 deadline to craft a plan that Hawaii can use to reach carbon neutrality.
One of the bills also opens the door for the state to participate in carbon-trading programs, such as the one in California, and to use other market-driven tools to cut emissions…
https://qz.com/1273362/hawaii-has-passed-laws-pledging-to-become-carbon-neutral-by-2045/
30
What are they going to do , plug The volcanoes?
40
refuse landing rights to fossil fuelled airaft?
50
On another forum that I am proud to be banned from, an alarmist pointed out to me that they had built an aircraft similar to the balsa and paper gliders with rubber band engines I built 100 years ago but solar powered that made an epic voyage, some of it after dark, and extrapolated that to mean that we will one day have solar powered passenger aircraft.
I have no wish to belittle the smart guys who built this thing or the brave man who flew it but I think talk of solar passenger aircraft is a little more than a bridge to far. BTW He was serious.
40
It’s easy if you’ve already suspended earth physics. They probably also fly those gossamer ultralight auditorium gliders that can actually bump noson on into a post, bounce off, and continue. Amazing, but not scalable. There is some progress in very-high-altitude gliders with solar sustainers, to maintain a high atmosphere platform well below the regime of orbiters. Solar technology has come a long way, and is very useful. It is a real business at the level of tiny yard lights, and power (with batteries) for a huge variety of remote installations. A little solar battery maintainer that works is a commidity at my local parts store. The solar religion is a different beast.
40
There was a pedalled aircraft that crossed the English Channel in 1979. It heralded a new era of flight but has made zero inroads into commercial air transport.
This reminds me of a BBC program I saw years ago and how easily we take power for granted:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C93cL_zDVIM
This is only a snippet of the program. The volunteers in the test house had no idea is was being powered by cyclists.
30
Rick
IIRC not everyone would want the fitness program of that pilot/power unit either
10
can’t find anything on this elsewhere – maybe in French-language media?
11 May: CarbonPulse: Not just carbon: Fraud taints France’s white certificate scheme
Once a bastion of EU carbon trading fraud, France has found almost a fifth of its burgeoning ‘white’ energy efficiency certificate market to be “problematic” since it relaxed auditing rules, delivering another stark warning over the potential pitfalls of market-based environmental policies…SUBSCRIPTION REQD
other news at CarbonPulse:
11 May: CarbonPulse: Switzerland approaches countries to host pilot crediting under Paris Agreement
Switzerland has begun talks with several developing nations to test pilot GHG-cutting initiatives, aiming to secure carbon credits that could be eventually used to help meet its Paris Agreement goal.
11 May: CarbonPulse: By the numbers: Kyoto offset use in the EU ETS since 2014
Fossil fuel-based projects in developing and eastern European countries have been the largest individual beneficiaries from selling offsets to emitters in the EU ETS since 2014, while more than 75% of the credits came from just two countries.
20
I was looking for that exact story myself last night. If anyone finds a version outside the paywall please share…
20
I got a 1kW system in 2010.
It cost me nothing (due to the rebate) and the installers even gave me a $1000 coles gift voucher.
Then came several years of 66c feed in tariff.
No maintenance, problem free and still generating now.
How do I work out the return on investment of that ?
40
Sort of a reverse Robin Hood mate .
40
Yes crazy stuff,
I’m not rich though.
20
comment in moderation re: 11 May: CarbonPulse: Not just carbon: Fraud taints France’s white certificate scheme
very lengthy – MASSIVE number of links:
11 May: CarbonBrief: Bonn climate talks: key outcomes from the May 2018 UN climate conference
by Simon Evans, Jocelyn Timperley
Over the past two weeks, more than 3,000 diplomats and observers have been in Bonn, Germany, to discuss how to bring the Paris Agreement on climate change to life when it enters force in 2020…
Each part of the rulebook made progress at Bonn. Nevertheless, hopes of leaving with a single negotiating text fell flat, forcing parties to agree an extra week of talks in Bangkok…
In total, working texts (LINK) across all (LINK) the issues (LINK) still run to hundreds of pages…
China, India and others argue for two sets of rules, with a recent Indian proposal (LINK) suggesting historic responsibility for climate change be used to differentiate…
Progress at Bonn was captured in a 17-page informal note (LINK), with talks set to continue in Bangkok…
Carbon markets (READ FOR DETAILS)…
Looking ahead
Meanwhile, there are a series of high-level climate meetings over the coming months, shown in the table, below…LIST
https://www.carbonbrief.org/bonn-climate-talks-key-outcomes-from-the-may-2018-un-climate-conference
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Updated 11 May: Bloomberg: Matthew Carr: Climate Talks Stall as Detail Sought on $100 Billion Finance
Envoys from almost 200 nations are leaving Bonn, Germany, on Thursday without producing a draft negotiating text for ministers to discuss at the end of the year…
***The holdup threatens to unravel three years of work to complete the Paris Agreement, a landmark deal reached in 2015 that set out an ambition to limit fossil-fuel pollution in all nations for the first time…
“Sharp political differences remain on a handful of issues, especially on climate finance and the amount of differentiation in the Paris Agreement rules for countries at varying stages of development,” said Alden Meyer, who has been following the talks for more than two decades for the Union of Concerned Scientists. “These issues are above the pay grade of negotiators in Bonn and will require engaging ministers and national leaders.”
Tensions have been building for years on the matter of financing that industrial nations promised developing ones to pay for transforming their economies to run on clean energy — and to cope with the more violent storms and rising sea levels associated with higher global temperatures…
Developing nations are being asked for more transparency on the emissions they produce — and to open up to some sort of process for verifying that information. Many of them are concerned that will add expensive and cumbersome bureaucracy — or that richer nations will use those tools to limit trade…
Developing nations say that a rebound in the cost of carbon emissions in Europe is creating pools of new cash that might come their way. As industrial countries take on tighter emission targets, they may buy traded carbon credits from poorer nations, said Wael Aboulmagd, an Egyptian ambassador who was speaking for the group of developing nations called G77 & China.
“People are anticipating that down the road this is going to be a significant contributor to the balancing of emissions with trade issues and enticement for countries to show more ambition,” Aboulmagd said…
“We need that Bangkok session, Why? Because no Bangkok session, no deal in Katowice,” said Tosi Mpanu-Mpanu, a representative from the Democratic Republic of Congo. “No deal in Katowice, some guys in the U.S. will be celebrating, saying, we were right to leave this thing.”…
Richer nations traditionally have used finance for leverage to get concessions they want on transparency from developing nations. Some environmental groups are concerned that strategy threatens to undo the cooperation the UN talks is meant to spur.
“With developed countries refusing to move on finance, lots of pieces are still unfinished,” said Harjeet Singh, who speaks on the issue for ActionAid International, an advocacy group. “This is holding up the whole package. Issues are piling up. It’s a dangerous strategy to leave everything to the last minute.”
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-05-10/push-for-climate-rigor-irks-some-nations-as-talks-near-crescendo
20
behind paywall:
10 May: UK Telegraph: David Goodall, botanist and ecologist – obituary
David Goodall, who has died at a euthanasia clinic in Switzerland aged 104, was a botanist and ecologist who raised concerns about climate change and population growth long before they reached the political agenda.
Climate change, in particular, was something that he believed should have been tackled long ago. “They ought to have thought about it at the start of last century, then we would have been able to make some changes, but now we can’t,” he said in 2016…
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/obituaries/2018/05/10/david-goodall-botanist-ecologist-obituary/
Carbon Brief on UK Times Obit below: The Times says: “Goodall had been one of the first scientists to talk about the greenhouse effect as a consensus began to form among scientists about climate change, and he was regarded as the godfather of ‘quantitative ecology’, applying the number-crunching rigour of statistics and mathematics to his discipline. He developed computer programs for classifying vegetation and modelling ecosystems.” It adds: “In an interview in 2016 he was pessimistic about the future. ‘It is too late to take effective action on climate change,’ he lamented. ‘At least as important is human population, which will increase to ten billion by the end of the century.’”
behind paywall:
10 May: UK Times: Professor David Goodall obituary
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/david-goodall-obituary-gqgmtdgss
30
Interesting, not saying that is hypocritical.
Sounds like he was a early and strong believer in the threat of AGW.
30
It was getting jot in the kitchen – due to global warming of course.
10
Nice! Both P45 and AG Sessions are recused from all battle ‘tween bureaucratic ‘executive’ and corrupt ‘legislative”deep state’ that will give no chance that SCOTUS be permitted to decide the constitutional interpretation of “separation of powers”!
OTOH personable Rudy Giuliani is the resource best to plead to citizen respected SCOTUS; “Please, please save the nation to the best of your ability?” NOW WHAT? MAGA
21
I note that a report at co2science·org shows that for Northern Thailand Temperatures Not Behaving According to Climate Alarmists’ Wishes
Not what they should find eh? Especially seeing that they are using tree-ring data. Maybe the Mann needs to show them where they went wrong. 😉
20
I recently had the temerity to write to the ABC pointing out the totally biased nature of their report on the pellet burning Drax power plant. I pointed out that the correspondent painted only one side of the story and asked not one meaningful question in that puff pieces.
I got an incredibly wordy response which to selective comments from my email and went of on tangents trying to dissect and discredit without addressing the main points of bias and lack of enquiry. There were frequent vedicts along the lines of “Audience and Consumer Affairs are unable to agree ……..” In one memorable passage the cited UK government plans and intentions about future power via renewables and gas, and then went on to talk about them as they they were actual facts rather than wishfull thinking. No mention of Hinkley or the risk of Russia cutting gas supplies.
For your amusment this was my final response:
“Thanks for your response.
I cant say that its a big surprise that the ABC review of itself finds all is well with the ABC.
The technique of selecting particular items to discuss rather than dealing with the central issue that the item was a biased, non critical thinking puff piece is interesting.
Its a mistake to confuse government virtue signalling, politics and wishful thinking with a view of a realistic future. Saying the the UK’s dependence isnt nuclear dependent takes a fair bit of ignoring reality. They are currently completing one of the largest nuclear plant seen in Europe for some time. Yes renewables and gas continue to grow, if you continue down the renewables path gas has to grow. Renewables typically deliver only 30% of their nameplate power rating over time, therefore they must be backed up by fossil or nuclear power (which deliver high 90% of nameplate, on demand , regardless of weather and time of day) as no widely deployable grid scale storage solution exists.
The real test of a diversely sourced power grid is to remove individual elements and see how the system copes. If you withdraw gas or nuclear the UK would be crippled. If you withdraw renewables , the system can continue to operate. This is something that is demonstrated every single winter when renewable power drops to almost zero and the load is picked up by those technologies locally and via significant interconnectors to nuclear powered neighbours in Europe.
But yes , the main game is burning pellets imported from the USA. The reporter had opportunities to scratch just one layer deep and as usual did not. No mention either of the scandal surrounding farmers burning pellets to heat empty barns so they could farm renewable susbsidies. No, just smile and nod, support the renewable narrative. Journalism? I guess, if you say so.”
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The Science is Settled
“Once again, [the budget] failed to address climate change,” says environmental scientist Martin Rice, head of research for the Sydney-based Climate Council of Australia. The council projects that spending related to climate change is dropping from AU$3 billion this year to AU$1.6 billion next year. Rice notes that the nation’s emissions of greenhouse gases have risen for three consecutive years. And the planned phaseout of a renewable energy target and other measures “could bring Australia’s renewables boom grinding to a halt,” he says.
Science Mag
50
Let’s see then that would be $1.6 billion too much of my taxes spent on climate change next year.
70
Hottest evvvvaaaaahhhh day in Perth while it snows in Victoriastan it must be climate change !
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-05-12/soaring-autumn-temperatures-set-new-record-in-perth/9754952
40
Whoops should have added warmest ever Autumn day.
30
Hannam ABC headline piece in 3…2…1
30
Let’s check the weather –
Wind from the northeast in Perth – weather is hot and dry.
Wind from the south in Hobart – weather is cold and wet.
Climate Change!
30
The blocking high should be further north at this time of year, its climate change.
20
It’s Climate Change Jim, but not as we know it.
https://youtu.be/Yr-V3G84zdQ
20
10 May: Bloomberg: Think Solar Is Upending California’s Power Grid Now? Just Wait
By Mark Chediak
California just mandated that nearly all new homes have solar, starting in less than two years. Now, it’s going to have to figure out what to do with all of that extra energy…
California’s top utility regulator warned last week of a looming energy crisis if the region doesn’t start planning for a future with more people either generating their own power or getting it from suppliers besides the big utilities…
“As the amount of renewables on the system grows, grid operators need increased visibility into behind-the-meter resources,” said Steven Greenlee, a spokesman for California Independent System Operator Corp., which runs the state’s power grid. Grid operators will need more visibility into how these home systems are working, he said.
To put it another way, “it has the potential to make the duck curve duckier,” said Ethan Zindler, a Washington-based analyst for Bloomberg New Energy Finance.
The provisions allow for energy storage systems to be paired with solar arrays, though they’re not required. That creates the potential to store electricity during the day and use it later in the evening, easing the problem…
The provisions allow for energy storage systems to be paired with solar arrays, though they’re not required. That creates the potential to store electricity during the day and use it later in the evening, easing the problem.
Problem’
The glut of solar during the day “is a temporary problem that will be solved with the addition of storage and more sophisticated demand-response programs” to balance intermittent supplies from wind and solar farms with peak demand periods, said Bernadette Del Chiaro, executive director of the California Solar & Storage Association.
“Today’s decision incorporates storage along with the solar to head off this issue at the pass,” she said. “You should really think of this mandate as solar on the roof, battery in the garage.”
The new requirements could lead to a rise in demand for batteries to be installed with solar systems, said Lynn Jurich, chief executive officer of Sunrun Inc., the largest U.S. residential solar installer.
The additional solar homes stand to add as much as 260 megawatts of annual solar power in the state — about the size of one large solar farm.
“When greenhouse gases are really being emitted by California’s power sector is after the sun goes down — but this mandate will do little to help,” said Colleen Regan, an analyst for Bloomberg New Energy Finance. “Other large-scale renewable technologies, as well as energy efficiency, would be better placed to help reduce power-sector emissions than distributed solar at this point.”…
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-05-09/think-solar-is-upending-california-s-power-grid-now-just-wait
20
9 May: E&E News: Climate hawk’s stunning fall from grace emboldens skeptics
by Josh Kurtz and Benjamin Hulac
Ex-New York Attorney General Eric Schneiderman (D) was at the vanguard of the climate movement, heading legal and political fights against Trump administration attempts to weaken environmental regulations.
Schneiderman is also a pugnacious and media-savvy figure whose abrupt and stunning political fall this week after cringe-worthy sexual abuse allegations is an undeniable blow to climate hawks across the country. It may force them to reshuffle their tactics and, to a lesser extent, their priorities.
But as shocked, saddened and disgusted as climate activists are about Schneiderman, they are convinced that reinforcements are readily available and that the movement to defend environmental laws from legal and legislative attacks remains strong, even in the absence of a fallen leader.
Ex-New York Attorney General Eric Schneiderman (D) was at the vanguard of the climate movement, heading legal and political fights against Trump administration attempts to weaken environmental regulations.
Schneiderman is also a pugnacious and media-savvy figure whose abrupt and stunning political fall this week after cringe-worthy sexual abuse allegations is an undeniable blow to climate hawks across the country. It may force them to reshuffle their tactics and, to a lesser extent, their priorities.
But as shocked, saddened and disgusted as climate activists are about Schneiderman, they are convinced that reinforcements are readily available and that the movement to defend environmental laws from legal and legislative attacks remains strong, even in the absence of a fallen leader…
“A lot of climate skeptics are smiling at his downfall because he was an out-of-control, really wacky guy who held a lot of power,” said Marc Morano, who runs the blog Climate Depot…READ ON
https://www.eenews.net/stories/1060081219
30
***LOL. far too large indeed.
10 May: Scientific American: Climate Science Can Be More Transparent, Researchers Say
Making data more publicly available is complicated by the ***large volume
By Scott Waldman, E&E News
A group of researchers presented their findings on reproducibility in climate science to the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering and Medicine yesterday as part of a monthslong examination of scientific transparency.
The awareness of issues around reproducing scientific data has been driven by the political nature of climate science, said Andrea Dutton, a geologist at the University of Florida and expert in sea-level rise…
“Climate science has undergone a lot of public scrutiny as we’re all aware,” she said. “And I think dealing with that has really increased our awareness as a community of being very rigorous about quantifying our uncertainties and being transparent in reporting, being transparent in data archiving.”…
One of the challenges faced by researchers trying to make their work more transparent is the complexity of dealing with a vast amount of data, said Gavin Schmidt, director of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies at NASA. In addition to storing the data, researchers must make the coding used to synthesize it available, he said. In the science community, reproducibility often consumes a lot of time that doesn’t always have a clear benefit to the individual researcher, other than altruism, he said…READ ALL
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/climate-science-can-be-more-transparent-researchers-say/
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“Delingpole: Plastic Bans Are Stupid, Unconservative and Won’t Save the Whales”
http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2018/05/12/delingpole-plastic-bans-are-stupid-unconservative-and-wont-save-the-whales/
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Friday it got up to 85 F (29.4 C) here in my corner of heaven in North Central Indiana. Put on a pair of shorts, jungle hat, and sun glasses and went out and mowed my acre. It was wonderful to break a sweat while trimming then sit on my tractor and sip an adult beverage while mowing the rest while getting some sun on my white legs. Meanwhile in the old country the press is having a cow because it has gotten warm over the “Bank Holiday”.
https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2018/05/11/hottest-evah-may-day/#comments
As Joe Bastardi says “Enjoy the weather because it’s the only weather you’ve got!” But the usual organs are doing their best to make what is enjoyable for many after a long cold winter into some kind of weather/climate crisis.
40
Expect a bad fire season in California this year and of course the hype will be over the top as usual even though it is easily predictable. They have had some rain in the land of the “permanent drought” this spring with a lot more coming according to the forecasts. When that happens the vegetation growth spikes. It will dry out in the summer and die and become the fuel for wild fires. And so good rains in a place that was supposed to be turning into desert mean a chance for hyping the global warming meme. And that is also easily predictable.
40
Solar power fans beware
“BC Hydro will stop paying private owners for surplus electricity. ”
Link at
http://www.smalldeadanimals.com/index.php/2018/05/12/may-12-2018-reader-tips/#comment-1113594
10
On the political front. Finally starting to crack the nut and get to the real meat of the conspiracy to destroy the Trump presidency. The DOJ an FBI are backed into a corner and fighting for all their worth to prevent the release of the source documents that started it all. They will lose and can there be any doubt that when the dirty laundry is finally aired the stink will severely damage the deep state? This news that one will not find on the state press organs.
https://theconservativetreehouse.com/
30
I heard someone on Fox make a good point. If it is shown that the FBI embedded the mole in the Trump camp before Pappadopolis confided in Downer then the claim that that was the trigger for the investigation will be shown to be a ANOTHER lie.
I don’t see a blue wave in November but I was always confident [well sorta :)] that Trump would win in ’16. I think there are a lot of shy Trumpsters out there, but I live in the boondocks, what would I know. If he gets a stronger majority and traitor McCain doesn’t come back the RINOs will have lost power and P45 will Keep America Great.
10
I don’t foresee a “blue wave” either and the polls are even make the democrat faithful in the base and their ever compliant press doubt it.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2018_Reuters_Tracking_-_Core_Political_05_09_2018.pdf
Bottom line the polls are showing the generic within the margin of error and with the pollsters consistently over sampling democrats it is worse than that. Further the numbers for those motivated to vote in the midterms are basically even in both parties according to the polls but the enthusiasm at the Trump rallies are indicating that just like in the last election the polls are way off.
If I had to guess at this time, I would say the Republicans will hold a significant majority in the House of Representatives and gain a significant number of seats in the Senate. And the new faces in both bodies will consist of far more Trump supporting Republicans there by resulting in the never Trump establishment Republicans losing ground and influence.
As for McCain? This is going to sound unchristian but I am so tired of that guy and hearing about him and from him with his vindictive establishment, pro illegal immigration stance I just wish he would die and get it over with. His “long goodbye” is far too long for me. It is sometimes hard for me to believe he is the spawn of an honorable military man that did so much to help us win during WW II. The only two good things I can say about him is that he was always pro-defense and pro-strong military and his politics were a little better than Ted Kennedy.
11
I agree, McCain has outlived his welcome. A twitter and bisted man who I believe caused the deaths of over 100 sailors on the USS Forestall and put the ship in peril with a childish prank. Accepted he suffered in the Hanoi Hilton, but so did others who didn’t;t sing. Coming home he found his wife disfigured in a car accident so ditched her. That’s three strikes.
10
If you take a look at the emails between Strozk and Lisa Page there is a name redacted from the recipients. It seems too short for Rosenstein, Maybe McCabe?
00
9 May: Townhall: Bill Nye the Abortion Guy Headlines Planned Parenthood Lunch, Talks Population Control
by Lauretta Brown
Bill Nye “the Science Guy,” once the beloved figure of the popular PBS children’s show, fundraised and gave a talk for Planned Parenthood of South Texas Tuesday in which he renewed calls for population control in response to climate change.
Nye, whose actual, scientific credentials consist of a bachelor’s degree in Mechanical Engineering, focused on climate change in his talk and reportedly discussed “evidence that explosive population growth is a major factor driving it.”…
His Netflix show “Bill Nye Saves The World,” featured a segment discussing the idea that people should be “penalized” for having “extra kids” who could potentially contribute to climate change…
https://townhall.com/tipsheet/laurettabrown/2018/05/09/bill-nye-the-abortion-guy-headlines-planned-parenthood-lunch-talks-population-control-n2479104
meanwhile, at a Lutheran liberal arts College:
8 May: Campus Reform: Kyle Hooten: (Noam) Chomsky claims GOP, Christianity trying to ‘destroy the world’
•Prominent liberal academic Noam Chomsky delivered a speech Friday at St. Olaf College, where he declared that Republicans and Christians are intent on “destroying organized human life.”
•Chomsky equated support for fossil fuels to saying “let’s quickly destroy ourselves, asserted that North Korea is “extending an olive branch” to the US, and insisted that Christians, but not Muslims, want to “destroy the world.”…
This comment and more came in the context of Dr. Chomsky’s 90-minute talk (LINK TO VIDEO), which was intended to serve as this year’s keynote event for the college’s Political Awareness Committee (PAC)…
Nuclear war and global warming were the two forces outlined as the primary threats to humanity, but President Donald Trump and the conservative movement in general also came under fire throughout the speech for their stances on these two issues.
Chomsky said he wasn’t surprised with the outcome of the 2016 presidential election, asserting that “for well over a century American elections have been mainly bought, literally,” and that he thinks Trump received ***“huge media support,” but added that he is, however, unhappy with the current administration…
“It’s not just the current administration” that he disdains, however; Chomsky maintained that Republicans in general are “dramatically leading a race to destruction” as they support the use of fossil fuels…
During the 2016 primaries, for instance, Chomsky declared that “the entire leadership of the party was saying let’s quickly destroy ourselves,” citing candidates like Ohio Gov. John Kasich who supported coal energy, though he contended that “it’s gotten far more extreme since Trump took office.”
“By now, half of Republican voters deny that global warming is taking place at all, and only 30 percent think humans may be contributing,” he lamented. “I don’t think you can find anything like that among any significant part of the population anywhere in the world, and it should tell us something. One thing it should tell us is there’s a lot to do for those who hope that maybe organized human life will survive.”…
Campus Reform reached out to St. Olaf College for a statement regarding the ongoing trend on campus of the Political Awareness Committee hosting exclusively leftist speakers, but the college did not provide a response.
https://www.campusreform.org/?ID=10875
most of the relevant stuff between 23mins and 38mins:
VIDEO: St. Olaf College: Political Awareness Committee Student Organization Speaker
Friday, May 4, 2018 — Boe Memorial Chapel
Noam Chomsky
https://www.stolaf.edu/multimedia/play/?e=2215
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10 May: UK Independent: Climate change: Washington county lawsuit demands oil and gas companies help pay adaptation costs
The lawsuit is similar to legal efforts in Colorado, California, and New York
by Clark Mindock, New York
A county in Washington State has become the latest locality to sue the oil industry for cash to help pay for the costs of adapting to climate change.
King County — a large county in the northwest of the state that includes Seattle — filed suit against British Petroleum, Chevron, Exxon, Royal Dutch Shell, and Conocophillips, with attorneys for the county arguing that those oil giants should help pay for the “hundreds of millions of dollars” that is expected to be needed to adapt to changing conditions created by climate change…
The lawsuit is at least the 11th lawsuit of its kind filed against oil and gas companies this year…
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/climate-change-lawsuit-king-county-washington-oil-gas-companies-environment-a8345976.html
10 May: The Hill: Washington county files lawsuit against oil and gas industry over climate change
By Miranda Green
Environmentalist groups are cheering the latest suit…
But fossil fuel and manufacturing industries are criticizing the suits as baseless targeting.
“Lawsuits targeting manufacturers do nothing to address climate change, but will do plenty to line the pockets of plaintiffs’ attorneys — and in this case, the very same attorneys behind countless other public nuisance lawsuits throughout the country,” said Lindsey de la Torre, executive director of the Manufacturers’ Accountability Project in a statement.
“As history has demonstrated, these lawsuits stand little chance in the courtroom.”
http://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/387113-washington-county-latest-to-file-climate-liability-lawsuit-against
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11 May: Gallup: Global Warming Age Gap: Younger Americans Most Worried
by RJ Reinhart
•70% of Americans age 18 to 34 worry about global warming
•This compares with 62% of those 35 to 54 and 56% who are 55 or older
Public concern about global warming is evident across all age groups in the U.S., with majorities of younger and older Americans saying they worry about the problem a great deal or fair amount. However, the extent to which Americans take global warming seriously and worry about it differs markedly by age, with adults under age 35 typically much more engaged with the problem than those 55 and older…
Younger adults are also significantly more likely to think news reports on global warming underestimate the problem. They are more likely to worry about the problem and to believe there is a scientific consensus that global warming is occurring…
These figures are based on combined data from Gallup’s annual Environment polls from 2015 to 2018…
Another reason results from the relationship between age and party identification. Gallup has previously found a significant partisan divide on Americans’ attitudes concerning global warming. This partisan gap may be reflected in the trend by age group, with younger Americans tending to tilt toward the Democratic Party, and thus being more likely to adopt the Democratic position on global warming.
***Finally, younger people may have been exposed to more discussion about climate change and the environment in their more recent education experiences, while the issue was not on the educational agenda for many Americans who were in school decades ago…
http://news.gallup.com/poll/234314/global-warming-age-gap-younger-americans-worried.aspx?g_source=link_NEWSV9&g_medium=TOPIC&g_campaign=item_&g_content=Global%2520Warming%2520Age%2520Gap%3A%2520Younger%2520Americans%2520Most%2520Worried
10
They should have asked how many buy offsets with their airline tickets, or even if they have stopped travelling.
10
Is that a long winded way of saying older people aren’t indoctrinated?
10
5 May: Yale Climate Connections: Cracking a climate conundrum
By Daniel Grossman
CO2 emissions leveled off between 2014 and 2016. But annual growth of CO2 in the atmosphere rose to more than 50 percent above that of past decades. What explains the contradiction?
In 2015, we earthlings – some 7.5 billion of us – discharged 36 billion tons of carbon dioxide into the air from many tailpipes and smokestacks. That is about the same amount of planet-warming gas belched out in 2014, and the figure remained largely unchanged in 2016.
After a century of exponential growth in the mass of carbon dioxide ejected into the air, the leveling-off of the output caught many observers by surprise. It’s explained partly by widespread substitution of natural gas for coal in electricity production and by expanded use of wind and solar energy.
Although the amount of CO2 ejected into the air leveled off in 2015, the quantity accumulating in the atmosphere did not let up. Rather, it spiked. Indeed, the concentration of the gas increased that year by 3 parts per million (ppm), 50 percent more than in the previous year and the average annual increase of the prior four decades. Researchers hadn’t observed an increase so large since they began systematic measurements of CO2 in the atmosphere back in 1958. The amount of CO2 in the air probably hadn’t surged so much in a single year since at least the end of the last ice age – 10,000 years ago…
A scientific article published in late 2017 explains this apparent paradox. The extra CO2 came from the world’s tropical forests…
Colorado State’s Scott Denning says this conclusion is helping climate modelers with the crucial task of forecasting the behavior of tropical forests in coming decades.
***“If we don’t get the mechanisms right,” he said, “then we’ll make the wrong predictions.”
https://www.yaleclimateconnections.org/2018/05/cracking-a-climate-conundrum/
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11 May: Mayor of London: Mayor sets out bold strategy to make London the greenest global city
Strategy sets out a vision for London’s environment in 2050, focusing on cleaning up the capital’s toxic air, greening its streets, reducing waste and tackling climate change.
•Ambitious targets include London becoming a zero-carbon city and at least 50 per cent green by 2050.
•Sadiq calls on Government to help deliver his vision for London, and requests extra powers to help him achieve his goals.
For the first time, this strategy brings together approaches to every aspect of London’s environment in one integrated document. The publication follows one of City Hall’s largest ever strategy consultations with almost 3,000 Londoners and 370 stakeholders responding to the draft Strategy launched last August.
The final draft of the Mayor’s Environment Strategy includes…READ ON
https://www.london.gov.uk/press-releases/mayoral/london-environment-strategy-sets-out-vision
10
Did he ask the Londoners if they would prefer a safe city? There are more murders in London than New York by a significant margin. And then there are the acid attacks and occasional terrorists.
BTW The Poms have ALWAYS had strict gun control, so it isn’t the 2nd amendment.
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10 May: UK Govt: Open consultation: Environment: developing environmental principles and accountability
From: Department for Environment, Food & Rural Affairs (DEFRA)
Seeking views on how a new environmental watchdog will work, and on the application of environmental principles, in England after EU exit.
This consultation is being held on another website (LINK).
This consultation closes at midday on 2 August 2018.
Consultation description
We want to know what you think about plans to create a new independent environmental watchdog. What functions and powers should the watchdog have to oversee environmental law and policy?
We’re also seeking views on what environmental principles we should apply in England to guide and shape environmental law and policy making.
https://www.gov.uk/government/consultations/environment-developing-environmental-principles-and-accountability
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Jo, I wonder if you have seen this tutorial complied for a Judge in the USA on Global Warming?
ADMINISTRATIVE MOTION OF
WILLIAM HAPPER, STEVEN E. KOONIN,
AND RICHARD S. LINDZEN FOR LEAVE
TO SUBMIT PRESENTATION IN
RESPONSE TO THE COURT’S
TUTORIAL QUESTIONS
The Court has invited a tutorial on global warming and climate change, which is set to occur March 21, 2018. The Court also identified specific questions to be addressed at the tutorial. Pursuant to Civil L.R. 7-11, Professors William Happer, Steven E. Koonin, and Richard S. Lindzen respectfully
ask the Court to accept their presentation (attached to this motion as Exhibit A) in response to the Court’s questions. The professors would be honored to participate directly in the tutorial if the Court
desires.
https://www.heartland.org/_template-assets/documents/publications/Happer%20Koonin%20Lindzen%20climate%20Tutorial.pdf
I found bits of it hard going (page 22 – last half) but is seems very thorough
30
Not at all happy with the science presented
“Human activities currently add 8.9 PgC each year to these closely coupled reservoirs (7.8 from fossil fuels
and cement production, 1.1 from land use changes such as deforestation). About half of that is absorbed
into the surface, while the balance (airborne fraction) accumulates in the atmosphere because of its multicentury
lifetime there. Other reservoirs such as the intermediate and deep ocean are less closely coupled
to the surface-atmosphere system.”
These two key statements are not true.
1. the lifetime of exchange of CO2 with the ocean has been shown conclusively to be 14 years. It was thought to be only 5 years in the 1950s. Now it is centuries. Rubbish.
2. Less “closely coupled”. Useless waffle. That is to justify that the 98% CO2 in the oceans plays no part and stays locked in the ocean? Again unbelievable nonsense. So how do fish breathe? If you heat the ocean, CO2 comes out.
You can prove all this with C14. It was well known in the 1950s and amazing that the amount of industrial CO2 in the air was less than 2%. Now science has been turned on its head. CO2 now stays in the atmosphere forever. Henry’s Law doesn’t work and the ocean has been ‘decoupled’ from the thin air above. All so the IPCC can scare people.
If the CO2 increase is not man made, the case is over. Nothing more needs to be said to destroy the fake science that is Man Mad Global Warming.
I am amazed and horrified this was actually presented in evidence to the judge.
40
Sorry, the ‘half life‘ of CO2 is 14 years. Half is exchanged with the ocean every 14 years. As the ocean already has 98% of all the free CO2, that means half of all fossil fuel CO2 is absorbed every 14 years. This is measured by reduction in C14 isotope after the sudden doubling in the atom bomb tests in the mid 1960s. It is not speculation but fact. C14 cannot be destroyed, so it has to go into the oceans. CO2 levels are set by the oceans and sea surface temperature, nothing else. Warming the ocean surface releases CO2. No great amount of science is needed and no speculation, no hot spot, no complex Bern cycle.
40
Tdf, i agree that submission was totally unscientific.
It starts off with a presumption and statement that the increase of CO2 was entirely due to mans burning of FFuels ! !
Thats like pleading guilty before trying to prove inocence. !
Incidentally, there is some very good science (prof Murry Salby) that says the “half life” of C14 in the atmosphere is much less than the 14 yrs suggested by the “bomb” results…possibly even as little as 1-5 yrs.
https://youtu.be/O8niiyDn2FI
00
11 May: Hollywood Reporter: Cannes: Word Bank Group backs Climate Change Doc “Great Green Wall”
by Scott Roxborough
The World Bank-backed group Connect4Climate will support Great Green Wall, an upcoming documentary from director Jared P. Scott (Requiem for the American Dream), that looks at the impact of climate change on increasing desertification.
The Constant Gardener director Fernando Meirelles is executive producing the doc, which has also received support from the United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification and by renewable energy company Building Energy, a longstanding partner of Connect4Climate.
Great Green Wall follows the efforts of Malian singer and activist Inna Modja to push back the spread of the Sahara Desert and to raise awareness around attempts to restore degraded landscapes and transform the lives of millions in the area.
At Cannes, Connect4Climate is also presenting projects produced under its Film4Climate initiative, including Slater Jewell-Kemker’s documentary Youth Unstoppable, which illustrates the director’s decade-long involvement in the youth climate movement and her efforts to give young people a voice in the fight to combat climate change…
https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/cannes-world-bank-group-backs-climate-change-doc-great-green-wall-1111008
reminder re Jared P. Scott:
20 Mar: ABC Four Corners: The Age of Consequences
By PBS International, Jared P Scott
“We are not your traditional environmentalists.” Gen. Gordon Sullivan (Retd), Fmr. Chief of Staff, U.S. Army…
“I’m here today not only representing my views on security implications of climate change, but on the collective wisdom of 16 admirals and generals.” Rear Admiral David Titley (Retd), U.S. Navy…
Rear Admiral David Titley spent 32 years in the US military. He was the US Navy’s chief oceanographer and led the Navy’s Task Force on Climate Change…
Wikipedia: Jared co-created and co-edited the book Requiem for the American Dream: The 10 Principles of Concentration of Wealth & Power authored by Noam Chomsky, which hit #6 on The New York Times Bestseller list for paperback nonfiction the week of April the 16th 2017 and #1 in several categories on Amazon’s Bestseller lists, including Income Inequality, Economic Policy, MacroEconomics, and Radical Political Thought…
Jared is the writer, director, and producer of Disruption, a Vimeo Staff Pick, released non-commercially worldwide on September 7, 2014 to galvanize the People’s Climate March, the largest climate mobilization in history on September 21, 2014…
He is the writer, director, and producer of Do the Math, which was released non-commercially worldwide on the eve of Earth Day, April 21, 2013, and later on Al-Jazeera America.
The film was inspired by the 2012 21-city “Do the Math” speaking tour with 350.org, Bill McKibben, Naomi Klein, Lennox Yearwood, among others, which was motivated by a 2012 McKibben article in Rolling Stone, titled “Global Warming’s Terrifying New Math”, which was influenced by the “Unburnable Carbon” report by the Carbon Tracker Initiative…
10
If I had to guess I’d say that desertification is mainly happening in sub-Saharan Africa driven by poverty and overpopulation causing trees to be harvested for cooking.
Th rest of the green is enjoying a greening, or so the interpretations of satellite photos tell us.
20
Jared is well-connected!
20 June 2017: Uni of South Australia: European Climate Diplomacy Week
Screening of “The Age of Consequences” and Panel Debate
Through the lens of national security and global stability, The Age of Consequences looks at the impacts of climate change on increased resource scarcity and migration. Directed by Jared P. Scott, this documentary is presented by the Delegation of the European Union to Australia, together with the University of South Australia’s Hawke EU Centre for Mobilities, Migrations and Cultural Transformations and the EU Centre for Global Affairs at the University of Adelaide…
Pannelists include Dr Nicolas Regaud, Special Adviser to the Director General for International Relations and Strategy (DGRIS); Martin Haese, Lord Mayor of Adelaide; Professor Chris Daniels of the University of South Australia; Dr Alan Gamlen of the University of Adelaide; and Julia Grant, Group Executive Director, Climate Change, South Australia’s Department of Environment, Water and Natural Resources.
The film screening was opened by H.E. Tom Nørring, Ambassador of Denmark to Australia and the Hon Ian Hunter MLC, Minister for Climate Change, Sustainability, Environment & Conservation, Water and the River Murray…
http://www.unisa.edu.au/Calendar/Hawke-EU-Centre-event—EU-Climate-Diplomacy-Week/
Age of Consequences – Filmmakers
Jared P. Scott, Writer / Director / Producer
A seasoned speaker, Jared has delivered keynote addresses during events at COP 20 in Peru and COP 21 in Paris about ‘Using Film as a Tool for Social Change’, led discussions at The New School, NYU, SUNY/Bard, & Carnegie Mellon University, participated in festival panels (Sheffield, DOC NYC), and has appeared on CNN, Al-Jazeera, ABC, NBC, RAI, and Huff Post Live.
Dave Regos, Research Coordinator / Assistant Editor
As a teenager he made his first short film about a devastating freakish hailstorm that hit Sydney, Australia in 1998. After graduating from the University of California, Berkeley he directed and produced a feature length documentary about the quirky world of artistic roller skating. After working for ABC TV in Australia, David traveled across the USA filming people’s moments of inspiration for Mutual of Omaha’s Aha Moment campaign…
http://theageofconsequences.com/filmmakers/
May 2017: Adelaide Review: Living in the Age of Consequences
by David Knight
Scott’s film was originally shown in Australia as part of ABC’s Four Corners earlier this year, but will be screening as part of the annual Transitions Film Festival at Mercury Cinema on Saturday, May 20…
“There seems to be a lot of doubt and misunderstanding of the issue [climate change] and a lot of that has to do with concentrated doubt campaigns and a concerted effort to deny (and we don’t need to get into that),” Scott says. “We wanted to target people who for whatever reason are not responding to climate change because they think it’s an esoteric environmental issue or it truly is this inconvenient truth or it is something that conflicts with their world view.”
Scott believes that the American left and the right, Democrats and Republicans, have similar national security views and he wanted the American population to view the issue of climate from an institution such as the Pentagon, which is more or less viewed as a stable organisation. This, for Scott, meant that the security lens was a “pretty safe place” to tackle the climate issue as well as being “frightening”.
“On some level it’s reassuring, ‘Yeah, the military’s onto it [climate change], it must be serious’. But then you think, ‘Oh shit, this must be serious!’”…ETC
https://www.adelaidereview.com.au/arts/cinema/living-age-consequences/
10
Behold a miracle:
A commuter rail story that does not mention climate change.
Low fares, WiFi, comfort, good service. Sounds like a plan.
‘Only private service’ …. sounds like an explanation.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-05-11/miami-commuter-train-to-blast-through-florida-traffic-nightmare
40
Excellent graphic representation showing the difference in arctic sea ice volume this year at this time compared to last few using the DMI ice volume chart.
Arctic Adds Amazing 2 Trillion (2,000,000,000,000) Tonnes Of Sea Ice Since 2016…Enough To Circle Earth 50,000 Times!
http://notrickszone.com/2018/05/12/arctic-adds-amazing-2-trillion-2000000000000-tonnes-of-sea-ice-since-2016-enough-to-circle-earth-50000-times/#sthash.N52SDGvG.dpbs
Just thought I would add some perspective since as is usual for this time of year we will be seeing a substantial bit of gloom and doom about sea ice extent in the Arctic declining.
20
Concerning the eruption of Kilauea.
I have a concern. Though that mountain has been monitored by some of the worlds leading experts for a relatively long time I wonder if we’re getting the full story. They are predicting a big eruption now and have 2,000 people on the SE end of the island on short notice for immediate evacuation by helicopter if necessary. But that volcano has the potential to be deadly for far more than the relative few on the SE end. It in fact has the potential to be a threat to a far greater area if there is a truly massive explosive eruption. I wonder if the risk is being downplayed as officials try to balance the threat with the damage to the tourist industry which is such a big part of the economy? Anyway, unless your into volcanoes, I wouldn’t be booking any vacations there for awhile.
30
RAH:
Kilauea has been erupting since 1983? so the chances are that some pressure has been released. Fortunately for the 2,000 people for how would they get them off quickly enough.
Try https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8QSl_t65wnw for a comparison of volcano sizes. The first 45 secs should be ignored or fast forwarded through.
10
Here is the real threat in the case of a massive eruption.
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2003/12/031209080659.htm
http://www.drgeorgepc.com/VolcanoHawaiiKilaueaInstab.html
If the crack breaks a whole lot more people than those on the Hawaiian islands are at risk. It has happened before and there is no reason to believe it can’t happen again.
10
For the Mod Squad: THE WEEK IN PICTURES: THANK GOD IT’S SATURDAY EDITION
My pick the German School.
20
“Climate Change Conference Collapses as China Backs Down from Emission Commitments”
http://www.breitbart.com/national-security/2018/05/12/12-may-18-world-view-climate-change-conference-collapses-as-china-backs-down-from-emission-commitments/
No one could have seen this coming (/sarc)
40
I cooked Mrs H’s breakfast this Mothers’ Day but she was underwhelmed. That may be because I do that the other 364 days of the year too. 🙂
30
You are supposed to give her a break from the routine.
Suggest a red rose, smoked salmon in scrambled eggs and a bottle of champagne or other sparkling wine.
00
Irony seems a lost art.
10
It is Mother’s Day, not Wife’s Day.
00
For those interested in renewable power, and the amount it delivers, (or not!),
TonyFromOz has put together a new series.
Well worth the read and bookmarking the permanent link!
Have a geek!
https://papundits.wordpress.com/?s=OzPowerGenerationTFO
10
See What a 1% cut in Government Spending could do to the Federal Debt! Just 1%. Please do it now.
https://mail.google.com/mail/u/0/#inbox/16348ce31d3b8c9e
Cutting out the Renewables subsidies and Climate research would almost get us there. If we cancelled our contributions to the UN it might be enough.
10
Would you correct your link please?
10
Where does Qld find 312 MW of hydro? The Atherton Tablelands generators give a max of 117 MW. I didn’t know we had so much elsewhere.
10
Could it be Virtual Hydro?
00
Or are there facilities for “pumping” to use that capacity more than once?
00
Not in the north. There is one at Splityard Ck. A search shows it should be able to generate that much although I seldom see any output or input show on reneweconomy. This must have been one of those times.
00
Can you decipher my latest acronym, NSCPP? Of course last PP ist “pompous politician” The former is most vile degrading insult as developed by all fine equal opportunity (raciest) bigots! I hate ever-body 🙂 .
02
Current US-SecDOD Mattis (mad-dog) Be polite be professional, have plan for killing all you meet!
All the best!-will-—
01
Did you know that Mattis is the first ever Combat infantry veteran to have become Sec Def? Of course many others have had military backgrounds, but none of his predicesors had their boots on the ground fighting as infantry war EVER!
10
And your troop will follow you ever-war! Yes! but like Patton! Sacrifice armament to win, OTOH! Never sacrifice troops! Dats all you gots;’tween dem and me!
01
You train and equip fighting soldiers to avoid death while dealing it out to your enemy. You want them to survive to fight again and again. You know you will lose some but you send them into battle intending to win and get everyone back safely.
When it comes to something like D Day, June 6, 1944, it will be a bloodbath. Did you know that after he gave the final go ahead for the invasion, Eisenhower went to his office and wrote his letter of resignation addressed to President Roosevelt, sealed it in an envelope and locked it in his desk. He was that unsure of what he had ordered. Would he succeed or fail? From then on it was in the hands of the field commanders and the troops. Ike could only follow behind and direct where he could. It’s damned lonely at the top of the pyramid.
In the pacific the battle of Midway was nothing but a desperate gamble. We lost a lot more than we could afford to lose at that point but we cost the Japanese even more — we got their aircraft carriers and they never recovered from that while w could sit back home, secure against any serious attack and train men, build ships, airplanes, guns and ammunition until we overwhelmed an enemy on two fronts. But we essentially sacrificed many men to do it. It’s the price of winning and winning is everything.
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Ford turned out a B24 [four engined bomber] every 55 mins.
The fastest liberty ship built took 4 days, 15 hrs, 29 mins. They were building so many they didn’t bother returning some, they scrapped them in Britain where, one assumes, everything was recycled.
How could Japan withstand that? The US certainly led the world then.
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The modern American way of fighting war is material and ordinance intensive. During WW II the leaders and troops from the UK and commonwealth countries HAD to be parsimonious. They had been brought up in a system of limited material and manpower resources that demanded constant cheese paring. In addition the lessons of WW I were strong in the leadership. Those in the high command had been Jr officers in the Trenches and vowed never to waste their men as they had been forced to do during the Great War. Thus they were, in general, more conservative and less sanguine than the US leadership and commanders since the US had come into WW I late and while still suffering pretty severe casualties, had not done so for a sustained period and not experienced the many tragic fiascos. There was also an aspect that is not discussed that much in general histories. Canadians and Australians, with some justification, felt that their troops had often been used as “cannon fodder” during WW I.
These were some of the factors that were the undercurrents that greatly effected how the Allies approached war and influenced how WW II was fought. In the end it actually worked out to be a good balance. The US asserted it’s dominance over strategy and tactics from the beginning in the Pacific theater. But in the West they could not until they were supplying the bulk of the materials and troops and that didn’t happen until the 2nd half of 1943. Until then the Brits had the veto power and that was a good thing because a cross channel invasion anytime before 1944 as the US high command had wanted would have been a disaster.
But even as the US demonstrated it’s ability to produce massive quantities of war goods the Brits and commonwealth held on to their generally more conservative tactics. During the run up to Overlord they just could not believe that the US could deliver the numbers of what they were saying they would. In the end the US did, but it was a close run thing. There was even a limit to how fast the US could produce and the shortage of LSTs for D-day highlighted that fact clearly. It should be noted however that if the US had strictly held to the commitment that the fight against Hitler would have first priority then Ike would have had plenty of LSTs and even enough to carry out the invasion of Southern France at the same time as Overlord as Ike and Marshall had wanted. The shortage resulted because the fact was the US Navies campaigns in the Pacific were getting a substantial portion of the LST production and because for a time LSTs and landing craft were at a lower priority than destroyers types.
BTW the B-24 Liberator remains to this day by far the most produced 4 engine aircraft in history and will probably remain so forever.
I would suggest that any WW II historian interested in how the US geared up it’s economy for WW II read this book:
https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/freedoms-forge-arthur-herman/1106725548#/
It is also available for Kindle at a very reasonable price and the Kindle version is quite adequate.
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And like Patton and all the way back to Ulysses Grant before him, Mattis is not afraid to fight. And fighting is what a military is all about.
And when your army is all that stands between you and losing you country, you fight, fight and fight. You win at any cost because losing a war is the one unforgivable thing about warfare.
You never stop to lick your wounds until you win.
You may not want men like Mattis in a position requiring diplomacy or tea party manners, though I’ll bet he could do well there too. But you want him commanding your military from training all the way through to the battlefield.
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A Patton quote:
The object of war is not to die for your country but to make the other b***** die for his.
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There is a story of Mattis when he was possibly a Colonel. He was on a base where every Xmas the base commander’s wife would bake cookies and he would distribute them to on duty personel. At one guardhouse he asked for the Officer Of the Day and the guard replied that he would get Col Mattis. “No” said the general ” I want the guy who’s sleeping in that bed”. It was Mattis. Being a bachelor he relieved a young married officer so he could spend Xmas at home.
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From my Capt Tony poster on the wall
“All you need in this life is a tremendous sex drive and a great ego—-Brains don’t mean a shit!”
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If anyone is still reading this thread here is one of probably many available updates on Kilauea. It looks like a long siege.
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Would you be willing to look at post #63, from me? Thanks,
Vlad
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I find it intersting that a lot of the Warmists are also pre-population control..
Bill Nye the “science” guy is also pro-population control to head off a non-existant climate “crisis”…..
https://townhall.com/tipsheet/laurettabrown/2018/05/09/bill-nye-the-abortion-guy-headlines-planned-parenthood-lunch-talks-population-control-n2479104
“Bill Nye “the Science Guy,” once the beloved figure of the popular PBS children’s show, fundraised and gave a talk for Planned Parenthood of South Texas Tuesday in which he renewed calls for population control in response to climate change.
Nye, whose actual, scientific credentials consist of a bachelor’s degree in Mechanical Engineering, focused on climate change in his talk and reportedly discussed “evidence that explosive population growth is a major factor driving it.”
He also praised the nation’s largest abortion provider for efforts to raise the quality of life for women and emphasized that this was one way to address climate change, saying this would lead to “fewer kids.”
“What’s the one thing to do about climate change, if you want to think about the big picture? Raise the standard of living of girls and women,” he said, explaining, “when you raise the standard of living of girls and women, they have fewer kids, and the kids they have are better cared for.”
“The thing that gets me about the time that I grew up in and the time we’re living in now is how fast things have changed, and Planned Parenthood has been here since the very beginning,” he said. “
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Sorry to be late to the party, but this happened on Monday morning in the Western US: (about 11 AM our time)
Our nationally syndicated talk show host, Rush Limbaugh, is making statements which implicate the then-ambassador from Australia to (I think) either Moscow or London, feeding false information about Russia having Hillary Clinton “missing” e-mails, to George Poppadopalos (sp?), at the behest of the US FBI (Federal Bureau of Investigation), in a move to entrap a member of the Trump campaign. The meeting between the ambassador and Poppadopalos (sp?) took place in May, 2016; I’m not sure what location the meetings took place in.
The goal of the FBI was to have a pretext to “investigate” the Trump campaign, on the ‘off-chance’ that Trump would win the soon-to-take-place election; it was an “insurance policy” to allow the FBI to hamstring the Trump Administration, if it came to be.
Is anyone down there (from my perspective, “down” under … ) able to shed any light on this? Did the Australian ambassador conspire with our FBI to create an entrapment for a low-level Trump campaign aide?
I appreciate any information anyone is able to supply. I cannot legally record and broadcast Limbaugh radio shows. He does offer a subscription to his website, and full access to transcripts of monologues, as well as full (unedited) broadcasts to the show (both recent, present, and past shows).
I’m hoping that Roy has also listened to the Monday, 14 May broadcast, and can comment further.
Thanks, and my regards to all,
Vlad
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The evidence is undeniable, the Younger Dryas wasn’t caused by a cosmic impact.
https://curryja.files.wordpress.com/2017/09/figure-69.png
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