Easter Unthreaded

Wishing you an enjoyable Easter…

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There goes that scare: Antarctic Peninsula cooling by almost 1 degree

Don’t panic now, but all the coal burnt in China has been cooling the Antarctic Peninsula.

For the last twenty years, The Antarctic Peninsula was the poster-peninsula for the Global Worriers as they calculate how many meters the oceans will rise when it melts, but all across it, temperatures are going down, not up.

We can knock half to one degree off:

This cooling has amounted to a 0.5 to 0.9 °C decrease in temperatures in most of the Antarctic Peninsula region, the only exception being three stations located in the southwest sector of the peninsula that experienced a slight delay in their thermal turning point, declining only over the shorter period of the past decade.

Thanks to CO2Science: The Antarctic Peninsula: No Longer the Canary in the Coal Mine for Climate Alarmists

….

The start points matter. The cooling started after 1998, which was an El Nino, and we can see there was a similar downward slope from 1983 to 1993. As usual, with a climate graph, there are steps and stairs, and there is a trend up in the last 50 years (but probably down in the last 7,000).Whatever.

What there isn’t, […]

Australians duped into thinking that renewable energy is cheap

Crazy World Quiz #2349:

Let’s close the cheapest generators of electricity. Will electricity bills:

a/ go down, b/ go up, or c/ be paid by The Tooth Fairy?

A quarter of Australians don’t know. A half think the answer is “b” or “c”. It’s that bad.

A new survey came out this week which fans of renewables are using to argue we need more renewables, but hidden in the data is the big misinformation that underlies this attitude.

Coalition supporters back quicker shift to renewable energy

[Sydney Morning Herald]

Adam Morton says:

The wisdom of a campaign by the Turnbull government emphasising the risks of moving too rapidly to renewable energy has been thrown into question by polling that suggests a majority of its supporters don’t agree.

Not at all. The real issue, that Adam Morton misses, is that so much of the country is horribly misinformed. All the key questions in the survey depend on what would happen to electricity prices, and nearly half the country lives under the delusion that “renewables” make our electricity prices cheaper.

All Malcolm Turnbull has to do to turn these figures around is to tell […]

Climate change causes quietest cyclone season in Southern Hemisphere

Spot the effect of man-made CO2 in this graph.

Terror, terror I tell you — as the accumulated energy of cyclones in the southern half of the planet reaches a new low, far below anything seen in records that go back to 1971.

From the Daily Caller, and @Ryan Maue

Meteorologist Ryan Maue of Weatherbell Analytics noted tropical cyclone activity in the Southern Hemisphere for the 2016-2017 season is the “quietest on record, by far” based on records going back nearly five decades.

So far, the Southern Hemisphere has seen 13 named storms, including four hurricane-strength storms. Only two of those storms became major hurricanes, Category 3 or higher, according to data compiled by Colorado State University.

I don’t think Al Gore will be mentioning this in his inconvenient advertising.

h/t GWPF

9.4 out of 10 based on 73 ratings

US Science Teachers say trash books and watch Leo instead

Check out the book for yourself :- )

The Heartland Institute sent a round of 25,000 books to science teachers across the US. Knowing Heartland, the book Why Scientists Disagree About Global Warming is loaded with dangerous material — peer reviewed references, graphs with both axes, stuff like that. Because it will have been checked, cross checked and subjected to twenty years of non-stop criticism it will be packed with facts. And that’s why the Climate Religion is so terribly, awfully scared of it.

The NSTC took the extraordinary step of writing to teachers and naming all the errors they could find, which was none. In lieu of that, they said it was false information anyway because, hey, they could still spell both words.

NSTC warns of an unprecedented attack:

David L. Evans (no relation) sets out his best three reasons:

“First, scientists don’t disagree about climate change or its causes,”

What consensus? Less than half of climate scientists themselves agree with the IPCC “95%” certainty. The “97% consensus” is a marketing ploy some journalists (and science teachers) will fall for.

“Second, labeling propaganda as science does not make it so.

Exactly, just what I […]

Weekend Unthreaded

8.3 out of 10 based on 24 ratings

Climate grief group has nine step program

I nearly headlined this: Climate grief group meets at someone’s house, Grist covers it. That’s pretty much all this program is. No one even counts to nine in this story.

Depressed about climate change? There’s a 9-step program for that.

Imagine Alcoholics Anonymous mixed with an environmental humanities course, and you’ll begin to get a sense of the “good grief” group started by Schmidt. Its goal is to help people cope with what’s been called “climate grief” — anxiety, sadness, depression, and other emotions provoked by awareness of the planet’s march toward a hotter,… future…

What she found was that feelings of sadness and anxiety, and even literal nightmares, were common. Last year, with the help of her partner, Aimee Reau, Schmidt developed a nine-step program for building resiliency loosely modeled on AA…

But this is big:

About a dozen people attend each session and 50 subscribe to its mailings.

If I get 12 people to my house, and have 12,000 subscribers, do you think Grist will write it up?

Perhaps they have some good results?

Perhaps not:

Schmidt, who now works as an outreach coordinator at the environmental group HEAL […]

Alarming Arctic heat waves look a lot like the last alarming heat waves in 1940s

The Arctic is the most sensitive place to man-made emissions on Earth, which is why it has barely warmed since 1944? Well, it makes sense if CO2 is largely irrelevant. Humans have made 90% of all their CO2 in the last 70 years and nothing much happened in the place where it was supposed to hurt the most.

The WMO apparently missed the first 30 years of data. But Dr. Sebastian Lüning and Prof. Fritz Vahrenholt are here to help them out. : -)

“Heat waves in the Arctic – climate scientists sound the alarm“

Area weighted Arctic (70-90N) monthly surface air temperature anomalies (HadCRUT4) since 1920 in relation to the WMO normal period 1961-1990. Fig. 2: Arctic temperature since 1920. Data: HadCRUT4, Chart: Climate4You.

These heat waves look a lot like the last heat waves.

Read it all thanks to Pierre Gosselins translation:

Learning from the climate’s history: the Arctic heat waves of the 1930s and 40s

 

9.4 out of 10 based on 70 ratings

Turnbull, Andrews achievements: 1,000 unemployed, prices up, blackouts coming

Good afternoon Prime Minister and Premier,

Before we move on to your new partnership, let us think about Scott Morrison’s words:

“Governments must do no harm”.

As a political thinker he is “out there”, our Scotty isn’t he Gentlemen?

Perhaps we need him on the home team in the energy market do you think?

National Electricity Market Grid 4th April 2017 (Click to enlarge)

The solid basis on which the Turnbull/Andrews partnership needs to be formed has to originate with the achievements you have both made so far. Let’s list them:

Through your deliberate actions (and failure to act) of shutting Hazelwood, you have reduced mankind’s contribution of CO2 by a factor of 0.0002. That reduction, when compared with the CO2 produced by animals consuming vegetation and microbes consuming vegetation is a ratio of 0.000025. Hmmmm…….. You have just put at least 1,000 people out of work in the Latrobe Valley. You will bankrupt many businesses in the Latrobe Valley and devastate a whole slab of the Nation’s economy. You have placed the viability of every single manufacturing business in Eastern and South Australia under threat – with the certainty of unemployment for hundreds of thousands of […]

I thought the laws of physics worked for both sexes?

Would you like racism with your results?

….

Therefore Science with Intersectional Feminism is Black Supremacy?

Lets jog down the road to Apartheid science?

What Does “Intersectionality” Mean? (I knew you’d ask)

Originally, intersectionality referred to the discrimination faced by black women that is not only sexism and racism, but an experience that is more than the sum of its parts (now referred to as “misogynoir” in black feminist and womanist circles). Intersectionality has since been expanded to include the analysis of discrimination faced by anyone who identifies with the multiple social, biological, and cultural groups that are not favored in a patriarchal, capitalist, white supremacist society.

i.e. translated: Intersectionality is the study of discrimination which discriminates against older white men.

Science used to be about measurements and observations. Seemed to work.

h/t Scott of the Pacific.

9.6 out of 10 based on 74 ratings

Got a theory that breaks a consensus? Expect aggressive silence. Snickering. Wait decades

Université de Montréal.

For a long time it was thought the first people arrived in the Americas around 13,000 years ago. Jacques Cinq-Marc found a set of caves in the Yukon called the Bluefish Caves laden with bones marked with cuts from human butchering. They were radiocarbon dated as 24,000 years old. Cinq-Marcs published a series of papers between 1979-2001.

This is a topic that doesn’t have a $1.5 Trillion dollar industry riding on it. No political careers are made or broken if humans arrived in the Americas millenia earlier. Yet still, the smug scoffing of the consensus slowed progress in science for decades.

What Happens When an Archaeologist Challenges Mainstream Scientific Thinking?

Heather Pringer, Smithsonian.com

Cinq-Mars… work at Bluefish Caves suggested that Asian hunters roamed northern Yukon at least 11,000 years before the arrival of the Clovis people. And other research projects lent some support to the idea. At a small scattering of sites, from Meadowcroft in Pennsylvania to Monte Verde in Chile, archaeologists had unearthed hearths, stone tools and butchered animal remains that pointed to an earlier migration to the Americas. But rather than launching a major new search for more […]

Weekend Unthreaded

9.6 out of 10 based on 21 ratings

Curry, Christy, Pielke and Mann testify

Fantastic to finally see real scientists get a voice in a considered, official forum. This should have happened 20 years ago. I expect only climate-tragics will watch a 2 hour dry Congressional testimony, but it is so very rare that both sides of the debate get questioned in the same forum and almost never that skeptical scientists outnumber the unskeptical ones. Michael Mann has little more than namecalling, unscientific social speculation, allusions about “motivations” and political labels. Improbably, Mann the media-climate-celebrity tries to make out he is the victim of bullying and silencing. At 1:10 Mann twists, exaggerates and abuses like a Greenpeace activist and Congressman Lamar Smith pulls him up…

Judith Curry talks about why she changed her mind starting at 20 minutes, and why she resigned.

“… I realized the premature consensus was harming the progress of science”

“Scientists who demonize opponents are behaving in a way that is antithetical to the scientific process. These are the tactics for enforcing a premature theory for political purpose.”

8.9 out of 10 based on 169 ratings […]

Putin: Climate change doubters may not be so silly

What can I say? Putin has the same scientific quals as Al Gore, but more polar bears. The Greenies should love him:

Climate Change Doubters not so silly Sam Meredith | Geoff Cutmore

In an interview by CNBC at the International Arctic Forum in Arkhangelsk, Russia, Putin was asked about the rollback of environmental regulations from U.S. President Donald Trump‘s administration.

“Those people who are not in agreement with opponents (of climate change) may not be at all silly,” Putin replied via an interpreter.

With 10% of the Russian GDP dependent on the Arctic, he also said:

“Climate change brings in more favorable conditions and improves the economic potential of this region,”…

We can’t have that then.

 

Mr. Putin thinks skeptics are right, To reject the fake warmist fight, As a great waste of time, When a mild Arctic clime, Makes the future in every way bright.

— Ruairi

h/t WS.

9.9 out of 10 based on 63 ratings

A big shift: Labor heavyweight tells Greens MP off for zany and mean climate zealotry

The unravelling of the climate religion continues: Graham Richardson is an old-school Australian Labor powerbroker and former senior minister, and yesterday he was bagging out Adam Bandt, the Greens MP, for his atrocious timing, and “meanness of spirit” in using cyclone Debbie to score political points about climate policy “while hundreds of thousands of people are wondering what they will have left.”

What’s remarkable is how flat out unapologetic, no-pussy-footing plain and clear he is, and how much he is making the same points that sensible skeptics have been saying. Is this the first sign of a shift in the ranks of the Labor Party?

Richardson, 2015 was determined to fight for carbon pricing:

You need not worry, dear readers. This fearless correspondent will continue to wage war on this issue even when all my comrades have surrendered.

Graham Richardson 2017:

It is becoming increasingly difficult to remain a hard-core supporter of climate change belief. The entry into the debate this week of zany zealot Adam Bandt was horribly wrong on several fronts.

He [Bandt] made the staggering claim that Malcolm Turnbull would have “blood on his hands” if he supported the […]

SA Premier turned down a $30m coal deal that could have saved a billion dollars

The SA blackout cost around half a billion, and building a new gas plant (with a $170b in green bribes) adds another half. It’s now emerged that Alinta offered Jay Weatherill a deal to keep the Port Augusta power plant running which he turned down. If he had paid just $30m to keep the Northern coal fired station in business, there might have been no statewide blackout, and no need for regular load shedding. Wholesale electricity contracts in SA have risen from 8c per KWhr to 14c since mid last year.

Alinta offered to keep Port Augusta power station running — The Advertiser:

The owner of the now-defunct Port Augusta power station made a secret offer to keep generating electricity until mid-2018 in return for $25 million from the State Government — 22 times less than its $550 million power plan.

In the six-page letter supplied to The Advertiser by the Liberals, Alinta warns of significant risk to the security of South Australia’s power supply and a surge in electricity prices — costing the state $56 million to $112 million a year — if the power station and associated Leigh Creek brown coal mine were to […]

AEMO Report blames renewables: SA Blackout due to lack of “synchronous inertia”

The Final AEMO Report on the big-SA Blackout deals up some hard truths, and contradicts its earlier claim that the “energy mix” didn’t matter. The key theme here is about the system inertia. The Blackout on Sept 28 last year was an accident waiting to happen, and it wasn’t storm damage to lines that caused it. The blackout would not have happened if wind power had not been so dominant.

The transition to a 35% wind powered system left the SA grid very vulnerable. On Sept 28 last year, the safety settings on wind turbines were overly sensitive and when voltages “bumped” the turbines shut off suddenly, but those shutoffs hit the system too fast, and that caused the interconnector to shut off too, sacrificing SA to protect the rest of the national grid. The settings themselves are not the main issue — because they can be changed to prevent a repeat. It is a fixable problem — what is harder to fix, is the lack of inertia, and the sheer complexity. These are the biggest challenges of any renewables grid. We can fix even those problems, but at what cost in order to change the weather 100 years […]

Watching Debbie — Cat 4 hits the coast

From the BOM animated satellite viewer. (Click to enlarge, or click here for the animation — if you have the bandwidth).

This image was taken at about 6pm EST as darkness started to sweep across the nation. (It is all dark now).

Tropical Cyclone Debbie: Queenslanders preparing for worst cyclone since Yasi 256km Radar at Mackay (for a cat-4 the rain is very underwhelming) The fantastic Nullschool wind track image. Twitter Cyclone Debbie

For sheer weather voyerism (forgive me people of Ayr-to-Mackay): at the BOM satellite animation watch night befall the nation and notice how the the clouds appear for-all-the-world like river rapids flowing over rocks. Up close in the darkness, the clouds roil and churn like a wave smashing over a beach. (I’m sure if someone could capture some cropped video it would be impossible to tell if it were clouds or waves, see the “white-water” above Antarctica. See the two waves collide explosively into each other over the Pilbara in NW WA).

Best wishes to everyone in Debbie’s path tonight.

UPDATE:

12 noon QLD Time: Hamilton Island is on the edge of the eye right now according to the radar. Latest Observations at Hamilton Island show wind […]

Hazelwood — the shutdown begins — lowest cost electricity forced out by government design

TonyFromOz reports that the first generator at Hazelwood Power Station has stopped after 53 years of operation.

If only the Victorian government saw value in keeping an old cheap power generator going. Marvel that even though this plant can sell wholesale electricity at 3 or 4 cents per KWhr it is unable to make a profit. There is no free market in electricity in Australia, only the illusion of it. Hands up who thinks a million households would buy direct from Hazelwood and keep it going, if there was no government intervention to stop them? — Jo

Hazelwood Power Station, closes, March 2017. Photo David Maddison.

_____________________

Hazelwood Update – The shutdown has started

At 1.51AM Monday 27th March, Unit 8 was the first Unit at Hazelwood to shut down. It reduced power at around 3.45PM on Sunday afternoon from around 170MW to between 128MW and 134MW, trying vainly to stay operational for as long as possible. At 11.05PM Sunday night, power started falling even more, leading me to believe it was starting the shutdown process, which took almost three hours. Power fell off over the next almost three hours and finally, it stopped […]

Weekend Unthreaded

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