JoNova

A science presenter, writer, speaker & former TV host; author of The Skeptic's Handbook (over 200,000 copies distributed & available in 15 languages).


Handbooks


Advertising


Australian Speakers Agency



GoldNerds

The nerds have the numbers on precious metals investments on the ASX



The Skeptics Handbook

Think it has been debunked? See here.

The Skeptics Handbook II

Climate Money Paper



Archives

Books

Figure this: Andy Pitman says “we don’t understand what causes droughts” but “the indirect link is clear”!

Back in August I posted the extraordinary first quotes from Prof Andy Pitman that there was no link between climate change and drought.

Prof Andy Pitman, Climate Modeler, UNSW

The news about droughts was banal and obvious, because more water evaporates in a warmer world, and therefore, more rain falls — how could it be any other way? What goes up, must come down. But that quote was very important because it had never been stated so unequivocally by a high ranking believer and modeler. (Thanks to Jim Sternhill for spotting this incendiary and unwittingly honest quote.) Since being posted here, those quotes have been picked up by Maurice Newman, Alan Jones, then Chris Kenny (The Australian editor) and Andrew Bolt — which means the Pitman-drought-admission has become a major headache for the climate machine. Hence, they had to come up with some fogging excuse to muddy up the clarity, and here it is. Pitman forgot one word.

Prof Andy Pitman now says that he meant to say there was no direct link:

Barry said this “clarification” said Pitman had “left out a crucial word”: that “there is no direct link between climate change and drought”.

Extinction Rebellion’s real target are old English men

Extinction Rebellion leader says its not about climate — it’s about toxic white European racist heterosexists, especially old Brits

Basden o-chosen-one is here to save us from our delusions — if you thought fossil fuels caused climates to break, you are in denial. Storms and floods are really a symptom of the toxic infection that is European civilization!

Apparently even the IPCC are denialists that the real cause of bad weather is old white English men.

I’m so grateful to Stuart Basden, one of the first 15 XR founders, for explaining what XR is really about. Thanks to Charles the moderator at WUWT, and Chris D for sending the Medium essay.

Share this link widely I say, the more people who read this the better.

 Extinction Rebellion isn’t about the Climate

by Stuart Basden

…  I’m here to say that XR isn’t about the climate. You see, the climate’s breakdown is a symptom of a toxic system of that has infected the ways we relate to each other as humans and to all life. This was exacerbated when European ‘civilisation’ was spread around the globe through cruelty and violence (especially) over the last 600 [...]

Weekend Unthreaded

The Guardian pledge to be a non-stop propaganda sheet for the climate industry

 I admire The Guardian’s honesty. If the sun drives climate change and a foreign unaudited UN committee is grossly exaggerating, at least we  know that The Guardian will be the last commercial news outlet on Earth to report it.

The Guardian helpfully puts this message on all the pages we read — just in case we forget for a moment and think it might be pursuing actual journalism and full fearless investigations.

….

 

The Guardian’s pledge is to pursue “Guardian journalism” whatever that is. Apparently the editors are experts in radiative atmospheric physics, even moreso than Prof Richard Lindzen. Why does the government bother to fund more scientific research – The Guardian already knows all the answers.

For the third time this year, they are broadcasting their approved mangled language for use in climate news. Presumably they are hoping their version of Climglish will catch on.

 The Guardian Guide to mangling language: It’s a crisis, not a change’: the six Guardian language changes on climate matters

A short glossary of the changes we’ve made to the Guardian’s style guide, for use by our journalists and editors when writing about the environment

In addition to [...]

Furious commuters drag Extinction Rebellion protestors off train

Case #412 of religious fanatics overplaying their hand again

Two protesters in London had stopped the Jubilee line train by standing on top of it with a banner. Two more were planning to glue themselves to the train, but the crowd was fed up. Mahatir Pasha‏ is a journalist for ITV News who apparently witnessed and filmed the furious commuters. He writes on twitter: “One commuter shouted “I need to get to work, I have to feed my kids,” when the protestors initially went up.” Then there was the “shocking moment angry commuters drag two #ExtinctionRebellion protestors off the top of a train in Canning Town and attack them.”

The crowd cheered as the protesters and their banner were removed, and though people called for calm, some got violent. In an awful moment, one of the protesters was kicked and bruised (UPDATE: Looks like that was exaggerated.  No photos or reports today of any injuries). The protesters shouldn’t have been there, and the mob shouldn’t have got violent. *The mob it seems just got rough.

This is what we get after two decades of shutting down the conversation — most people aren’t convinced, and most [...]

“A climate of fear on campus” — Susan Crockford Polar bear expert excommunicated

Add Susan Crockford’s name to the list of scientists being tossed out of the academic cathedral because they dare speak the truth. University of Victoria give no reasons for suddenly ending her long unpaid role as adjunct professor, but if they had evidence of incompetence, misinformation, deceit or poor performance, you can be sure they would say so.

The academic casualty list includes Peter Ridd, Bob Carter, Murry Salby, Bjorn Lomborg, David Legates, Nick Drapela, Pat Michaels, Mitchell Taylor, and now Susan Crockford. Outside academia those expunged from screens include David Bellamy, Johnny Ball, Phillip Vernier. Forced out of institutes were Caleb Rossiter and Lennart Bengtsson. The threat of RICO investigations drove Roger Pielke into a different career. Read “my unhappy life as a climate heretic“. Likewise Al Gore sacked Will Happer.

Others put up with the bullying and stay silent til they retire like Dr Rex Fleming from NOAA or they report anonymously after working for 40 years at the National Weather Service. Sometimes the bullying even follows people home, like Dr Fisher, economist and former ABARE manager who’s house was egged. All he did was model the costs of climate policies. Art Robinson ran for Congress and his [...]

Australian energy market likened to Papua New Guinea – unreliable, risky, like “developing nation”

 

The AEMO, theoretically the Australian Energy Market Operator, warned that people in Victoria and NSW face a high risk of blackouts this summer. Today the Sydney Morning Herald describes how big business is fed-up, calling it “disgraceful” that they have had to spend millions to install back up generators.   The chief of Coca-cola Amatil Australia compared the situation to what they face in Papua New Guinea.

How green is your diesel?

A disgraceful situation — the blackout risk in Australia

by Darren Gray and Nick Toscano.

Australia’s biggest fruit and vegetable grower, Costa Group, has blasted the “disgraceful” state of the nation’s energy market after fears of summer blackouts forced the company to spend millions of dollars on back-up generators to protect its crops around the country.

Harry Debney, the head of ASX-listed horticulture giant Costa Group, said the company had installed back-up generators to protect crops from a disruption to energy supplies in a number of states.

“It’s a disgraceful situation,” Mr Debney said. “We’re so concerned. There’s a lack of reliability, which is even more important than the cost, because if you’re out of production it just really hurts you very [...]

The inference crisis: when one third of experts draw the wrong conclusions with “way too much confidence”.

So much for expert judgement

In a test of scientists abilities, the same data was sent to 27 teams of researchers in cognitive psychology. The idea was to test the theoretical inferences they drew. But those expert teams drew conclusions from identical data that varied, oh boy, all the way from “zero to 100 percent.” One of the research team described it as a “jaw dropping” result –   where only one third of the experts made the correct inferences about what that data meant. Two thirds of the experts were either totally wrong or just operating “a bit better than pure guessing”.

What are we teaching at universities?

Beyond the ‘replication crisis,’ does research face an ‘inference crisis’?

Researchers test expert inferences against known data, find inconsistency

What they found was “enormous variability between researchers in what they inferred from the same sets of data,” Starns says. “For most data sets, the answers ranged from 0 to 100 percent across the 27 responders,” he adds, “that was the most shocking.”

Rotello reports that about one-third of responders “seemed to be doing OK,” one-third did a bit better than pure guessing, and one-third “made misleading [...]

Midweek Unthreaded

Oopsie solar-battery fail? Cloud causes System Black event at Alice Springs affecting thousands

Welcome to the new complexified energy grid where a cloud can cause a system black event — knocking out power for as much as nine hours. This affected the hospital for 30 minutes and the prolonged problems caused many businesses and supermarkets to close. Alice Springs is an island microgrid servicing about 29,000 people in the centre of Australia. It was 38 degrees C yesterday when the power went out. Shame about those fridges and air conditioning units.

Alice Springs is a mini version of larger grids showing how fragile these new complicated systems of multiple generators based on weather events and batteries can be.

Looks modern, sometimes has electricity too. Alice Springs  |  Photo by Stefano, Wikimedia.

 Yesterday: Thousands impacted by Alice Springs power blackout*

Steve Vivian, ABC News

Thousands of residents in Central Australia went without power yesterday afternoon, with some experiencing blackout conditions for up to nine hours.

Electricity was cut across the Alice Springs region around 2:30pm yesterday and was not restored in some areas until 10:47pm.

Today: Inquiry called, and explanations garbled — NT Chief Minister announces review

NT Chief Minister Michael Gunner told ABC Darwin [...]

Extinction Rebellion are run by paid activists — the £200,000 “grassroots” movement

Looks like a religion, acts like a religion…  @ExtinctionR

Just another group profiting from “climate change”

What other grassroots movement has fears of “six figure tax bills”? And these are just the UK figures.

How Extinction Rebellion climate change zealots – including a baronet’s Cambridge-educated granddaughter – are paid £400 a week to bring mayhem to our streets

by Holly Bancroft and James Heale, Mail on Sunday

Extinction Rebellion activists are being paid up to £400-a-week to lead protests Activists have been paid more than £200,000 since the start of the scheme   The eco-protest group privately fears it could face six-figure tax bill from HMRC  Tory MP calls on HMRC to launch an investigation into the group’s tax affairs

A document entitled Finance Policy And Processes seen by this newspaper in a ‘work in progress’ version states: ‘The maximum claim for volunteer living expenses is £400 a week (or £200 for someone volunteering part-time).”

But XR’s documents raise concerns about the fact that it has paid no tax or National Insurance on these sums, and questioned the employment status of activists.

The payments aren’t illegal, though the tax avoidance might be. But it [...]

How dare you steal my dreams for a sensible democracy!

Adam Bandt, Greens MP, set up a  Parliamentary Committee on Climate Action which aims to declare a Climate Emergency in Australia. Five Liberal (conservatives) have signed up to the chicken-entrails committee.

Rowan Dean has a message on Sky News for Tim Wilson, Dave Sharma, Jason Falinski, Katie Allen, Angie Bell and Trent Zimmerman, said in a Swedishy indignant voice

How Dare You!

You have stolen my dreams and my hopes for a sensible conservative government with your empty words like renewables and climate emergencies.

People are being conned, people are being hoodwinked,

Entire educational standards are collapsing before our eyes…

 I would add: How dare you wreck a perfectly good civilization based on nothing more than inept simulations from an immature crystal ball gazing science, staffed with B-grade, aggrandizing pretenders that hide declines, fiddle data, and think namecalling is an analytical technique.

How dare you exploit the weak minded, inciting the gullibles to break the law and glue themselves to crosswalks!

[...]

Weekend Unthreaded

Battle of the religions: Vatican may list Green Sins against planet

The Catholic Church eyes off the competition — the Green Church of hippie witchdoctors. Thinks about discovering a new commandment — thou shalt not hurt silicon dioxide, (or something like that.)

Some catholic delegates call it an ecological conversion. I call it a marketing campaign.

Harming planet could be a sin, say Vatican delegates

by Tom Kington, The Australian

Delegates at the Pope’s synod on the creeping destruction of the Amazon have called for crimes against the environment to be ranked alongside traditional sins and have raised the idea of “ecological conversion” to a greener brand of Catholicism.

Can’t beat the pagans — can join them:

Conservative critics of the Pope, who loathe his liberal stances on homosexuality and divorce, claim that he has no business fighting climate change. They also allege that the synod’s working document gives tacit approval to pagan worship by praising the closeness of Amazon tribes to ­nature. Cardinal Gerhard Muller, from Germany, a former senior Vatican official who was ousted by the Pope in 2017 over his conservative views, has criticized the term “ecological conversion”, stating: “There is only conversion to the Lord.”

The Vatican wants [...]

The State of Destruction

Sometimes we fool ourselves into thinking that destruction is creating something and that the government is a wish-fairy.

Nice quote “The Industrial Decalogue”  from 1916.

You cannot bring about prosperity by discouraging thrift. You cannot help small men by tearing down big men. You cannot strengthen the weak by weakening the strong. You cannot lift the wage earner by pulling down the wage payer. You cannot help the poor man by destroying the rich. You cannot keep out of trouble by spending more than your income. You cannot further the brotherhood of man by inciting class hatred. You cannot establish security on borrowed money. You cannot build character and courage by taking away men’s initiative and independence. You cannot help men permanently by doing for them what they could and should do for themselves.

by William J. H. Boetcker

–W.I.S.T. (Wish I’d said that).

The list is known by many names — like “the Ten Cannots”. Urban myth has it that Abraham Lincoln said it, but he did not.

Imagine if this (or something like it) was a school anthem?

(And there may be even better, shorter ones, suggest away…)

 

h/t [...]