JoNova

A science presenter, writer, speaker & former TV host; author of The Skeptic's Handbook (over 200,000 copies distributed & available in 15 languages).


Handbooks


Advertising


Australian Speakers Agency



GoldNerds

The nerds have the numbers on precious metals investments on the ASX



The Skeptics Handbook

Think it has been debunked? See here.

The Skeptics Handbook II

Climate Money Paper



Archives

SSW, Sudden Stratospheric Warming hitting a record over Antarctica, Ozone hole almost gone already?

Two days ago over the Antarctic the SSW or Sudden Stratospheric Warming was still running strong up at 10 hPa or around 30 km high.

NIWA claim it may be the strongest SSW seen in the Southern Hemisphere ever (which means the last 50 years).

Temperatures in the  green circle marked in the centre were 11C, instead of minus 40 to minus 60C. As we mentioned before, this is extremely rare, and the likely implications are that sometime in the next few weeks a cold beast will hit somewhere in the Southern Hemisphere, but no one really knows where. The Australian BOM are rather bravely predicting a warmer less rainy spring for NSW and QLD. (See below).

If only we really understood the major drivers of our climate we might have predicted this more than a few weeks in advance. Perhaps it is caused by some of those solar factors that the big GCM’s completely ignore?

From Nullschool:

SSW, STratospheric Sudden Warming, Southern Hemisphere, Antarctica.

Stratospheric Sudden Warming, Southern Hemisphere, Antarctica.

Two years ago, same time, we see a single large polar jetstream at 10hPA and temperatures of around minus 40C in the warmest part and minus 60 elsewhere in the jetstream. These normal winds flow in a westerly direction at around 200km an hour especially in spring.

SSW, Stratosphere, Temperature, Antarctica, Southern Hemisphere. Nullschool.

More normal stratospheric pattern over Antarctica in 2017

There are hardly any news reports on this in Australia, indeed it’s even hard to find twitter discussion:  #SSW

Predictions for the Australian weather from The Conversation on Sept 5th.

Impacts from this stratospheric warming are likely to reach Earth’s surface in the next month and possibly extend through to January.

Apart from warming the Antarctic region, the most notable effect will be a shift of the Southern Ocean westerly winds towards the Equator.

For regions directly in the path of the strongest westerlies, which includes western Tasmania, New Zealand’s South Island, and Patagonia in South America, this generally results in more storminess and rainfall, and colder temperatures.

But for subtropical Australia, which largely sits north of the main belt of westerlies, the shift results in reduced rainfall, clearer skies, and warmer temperatures.

Past stratospheric warming events and associated wind changes have had their strongest effects in NSW and southern Queensland, where springtime temperatures increased, rainfall decreased and heatwaves and fire risk rose.

The influence of the stratospheric warming has been captured by the Bureau’s climate outlooks, along with the influence of other major climate drivers such as the current positive Indian Ocean Dipole, leading to a hot and dry outlook for spring.

 The peak was expected a couple of weeks ago, but apparently the peak moved and was repredicted to be yesterday at 17C.

 Ozone hole headed for zero (as in “solved”)

During the SSW the ozone hole shrinks and repairs itself even faster than usual. Normally the ozone hole grows and peaks in October. But right now it is already vanishing as the winds up high turn back on themselves. At least half the Stratospheric jet stream — especially over the Australian side appears to be flowing from the East instead of the West.  Twitter #Ozonehole

From the Copernicus Atmospheric Monitoring Program:

Ozone hole, southern hemisphere.

Must be the CFC-Free bug spray….

Sudden warming in the high stratosphere,
In winter, in the Northern Hemisphere,
Is a forcing, it seems,
On its lower jet streams,
And a sign that a cold blast is near.

–Ruairi

VN:F [1.9.22_1171]
Rating: 9.9/10 (39 votes cast)
SSW, Sudden Stratospheric Warming hitting a record over Antarctica, Ozone hole almost gone already?, 9.9 out of 10 based on 39 ratings

135 comments to SSW, Sudden Stratospheric Warming hitting a record over Antarctica, Ozone hole almost gone already?

  • #
    robert rosicka

    Got enough wood for the fire just in case .

    90

    • #
      el gordo

      Wool sees strong demand.

      ‘The embattled Australian wool market is back in the black after the Eastern Market Indicator (EMI) gained a record $1.70 a kilogram this week.’

      ‘The lift takes the EMI back up to $15.35/kg, up dramatically from a fortnight ago when it reached $13.75/kg
      Major price gains of more than 50 per cent were made across some Merino fleeces

      ‘Australia exports 80 per cent of its wool clip to China, and traders saw a more positive tone than the past six to eight weeks
      The $1.70/kg lift is the highest weekly increase in the EMI on record, and takes the EMI back up to $15.35/kg.’ ABC

      110

  • #
    el gordo

    Gaia knows how to heal ozone depletion, its a miracle.

    121

    • #
      Hanrahan

      So I can bring my BCF fire extinguishers out of hiding. It is, hands down, the best extinguishant.

      110

      • #
        Mark D.

        Yes works great but don’t try breathing in the room you used it in.

        50

        • #
          Hanrahan

          A 7-8% concentration of BCF extinguishes a fire, A reduction of O2 in that proportion will not prevent you exiting the room. CO2 needs a concentration of 50% so if the room you were in was flooded, you would have one lungful of air to exit. There is another fluorocarbon, the name escapes me, that was kinder and used in computer rooms and such.

          60

          • #
            James Murphy

            I was going to say Halon, but I thought that was a trade name for a BCF, though I don’t know where this idea in my head came from.

            40

          • #
            sophocles

            Treat BCF or any of the fire retardant/extinguisher gases in your immediate atmosphere with great care and caution.

            I worked in a Govt Dept in the early 1980s in that Department’s Computer division. The computer floor was `protected’ by BCF in huge quantities. One day there was a gas drop with a couple of people caught in it. I’m still thankful I wasn’t — by a stroke of good luck, I was away on annual leave. Note: there was no fire, no combustion or burning at all, and I know nothing about any of the reasons for the drop — the results of the investigation were above my pay grade. It caused a lot of consternation at all levels. It may even have been malicious, there being a quiet rumour to that effect.

            The gas was “supposed” to be harmless to humans although lingering in it was not recommended and their individual exposures are unknown. One man got out quickly, while his colleague shut systems down which meant he had a somewhat longer exposure. The one who got out first resigned a few months later and I lost contact with him. However, the conscientious one, even a year after being caught in it, was having continuous health problems going from ailment to ailment. He had to eventually resign with these continuous health problems. He was adamant his problems started shortly after being caught in the gas.

            Okay, I’m not medically trained and the statistical sample is too small for any valid conclusions, but maybe you should consider re-breather or oxygen equipment as part of your safety gear.
            Or only use it in “ well ventilated circumstances” :-)

            40

      • #
        ralf ellis

        Yes – that is a bit of problem because BCF-Halon is the only extinguishant you can use in AVIATION – but the Greenies outlawed it. So nobody has made any BCF for decades, and it is getting scarce. So much so, that a refurbisher of aviation BCF extinguishers was found to be diluting the BCF by 40%.

        Likewise the windscreen rain repellent was banned for the same reason. So now in heavy rain the pilots cannot see a thing, and land by braille instead.

        The Greens are putting your lives in danger, by making all of aviation less safe than it was in the 80s and 90s.

        R

        81

  • #
    Phoenix44

    So is this heat then lost to space or is it reinjected to the atmosphere lower down? If the former, then it’s a mechanism (at this size) that is obviously not included in the calculations of Climate Change.

    150

  • #
    el gordo

    It could be argued that SAM is turning negative?

    ‘An observed trend in the Southern Hemisphere annular mode (SAM) during recent decades has involved an intensification of the polar vortex. The source of this trend is a matter of scientific debate with stratospheric ozone losses, greenhouse gas increases, and natural variability all being possible contenders.’

    Arblaster and Meehl 2005

    60

  • #
    Greg in NZ

    O.M.G. we’re all gonna • • •
    freeze burn drown dehydrate sleep wake-up carry on…

    -68˚C on Antarctica’s tops [bottoms] and -25 up on Greenland today:
    http://amrc.ssec.wisc.edu/data/view-data.php?action=view_image&product=surface/plot/TAC.GIF

    and jet streams going all over the show – hey, it’s still winter until the 23rd –
    http://squall.sfsu.edu/gif/jetstream_sohem_00.gif

    Have these climate clowns finally discovered equinoctial winds? Mind you, it is a full moon…

    180

  • #
    Travis T. Jones

    2015: 10,000-Year-Old Antarctic Ice Shelf Will Disappear by 2020, NASA Says

    https://ktla.com/2015/05/17/10000-year-old-antarctic-ice-shelf-will-disappear-by-2020-nasa-says/

    Nope. Can’t be that what done it.

    90

  • #
    Travis T. Jones

    09 Jul 1945 – Origin of Droughts in the Southern Hemisphere.
    Climate expert Jan Smuts knew that a cold Antarctica brought more rain & snow & a warm Antarctica brought less rain and snow …

    https://trove.nla.gov.au/newspaper/article/185750392

    100

  • #
    Ruairi

    Sudden warming in the high stratosphere,
    In winter, in the Northern Hemisphere,
    Is a forcing, it seems,
    On its lower jet streams,
    And a sign that a cold blast is near.

    130

  • #
  • #

    It’s worse than we thought! (What is it, by the way?)

    100

  • #
    Travis T. Jones

    2015: Ozone hole over Antarctica expands to near-record levels, now four times size of Australia

    Scientists from the UN said the increase was due to colder-than-usual temperatures, rather than any extra damage being done to the Earth’s protective layer.

    Professor David Karoly from the University of Melbourne said this fluctuation in size was not a long-term concern.

    “It makes it harder to then see the long-term improvement, the declining trend in the size of the ozone hole but that is still expected to continue,” he said.

    “We expect in the southern hemisphere that the ozone hole will not completely recover for another 40 to 60 years, when it recovers back to pre-1980 levels when the ozone hole was first discovered.”

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-10-30/ozone-hole-over-antarctica-expands-to-near-record-levels/6898824

    70

    • #
      el gordo

      ‘ … will not completely recover for another 40 to 60 years …’

      Strongly disagree, ozone deletion was a natural phenomenon and a negative SAM should set things right in a jiffy.

      On further reflection, Dupont made a motser on the back of a positive SAM.

      50

  • #
    David Wojick

    Completely OT, I just got this Woodside reply to my log ago email damning them for black balling Jo’s talk. They seem to be denying corporate responsibility but at least we got their attention.

    “Dear Mr Wojick

    Thank you for your comments, and we confirm receipt of your email.

    Woodside employees participate in a range of technical and professional development organisations, including the Formation Evaluation Society of Australia (FESAus). Decisions about the programming and content of FESAus events are the responsibility of the Society’s governing body, and attendance by Woodside employees at all events is voluntary.

    Yours sincerely
    Damien Gare
    VP Investor Relations | Investor Relations
    Woodside Energy Ltd.
    Woodside Energy Ltd.
    Mia Yellagonga
    Karlak, 11 Mount Street
    Perth WA 6000
    Australia”

    110

    • #
      theRealUniverse

      What a fob off! great arent they / sarc

      80

    • #
      OriginalSteve

      During the Inquisitions of the Middle Ages, the protagonists got the govt of the day to do thier dirty work, but still pulled the strings behind the scenes, but claimed “piety”.

      History is an interesting thing…lessons for all …..

      80

    • #
      Lewis P Buckingham

      Woodside is now on the radar for sure.
      ‘Big four in ASIC sights over audits’ Page One The Australian Sept 10 2019
      ‘…In one case oil giant Woodside has failed to change their auditors for decades,has retained Ernst & Young for 65 years”
      Since then over half the world’s population has been born.
      It would make sense to have a peek at the inside workings of Woodside.
      If it drills offshore Africa,where does it bank?
      a] Lichtenstein b]Isle of Man c]Singapore d]The Bahamas e]Ireland f]Switzerland g]The Cook Islands h] Australia i] some of the above j] all of the above.

      When it depreciates its assets does it use a] cost price at point of origin b]cost price at the worst or best exchange rate depending on the outcome c]cost price washed through a management company d]Some of the above.
      When it depreciates what is the schedule a]100% when there is no income b]carried forward for future use when the government puts a tax on.c]According to Australian accounting standards?
      Please answer a] b]or,c].
      No doubt ASIC can think of more.

      30

  • #
    Peter Fitzroy

    It’s a good idea to consider all these recent weather events in isolation otherwise you might be tempted to think that something unusual is going on /sarc off.

    you know, the arctic fires, the amazon fires, the cyclones, those 10 degree above average days in Perth, floods in Spain, the beast from the east in Britain,etc etc.

    Seriously to downplay an event that the “NIWA claim it may be the strongest SSW seen in the Southern Hemisphere ever (which means the last 50 years)” as if it was in no way unusual makes a mockery of sceptical analysis. (that was my bold, by the way)

    318

    • #
      robert rosicka

      You forgot the drought in QLD and NSW Fitz

      90

    • #
      theRealUniverse

      Fitz……………………
      1. Tha amazon fired were started by farmers burning of ALREADY felled Forrest! and are in REGROWTH areas and ARENT out of the usual.
      2. There are NO anomalies in cyclone numbers anywhere.
      3. AS some on here have said Perth isnt above average.
      4. Floods aren’t out of normal expectations.
      Neither are the rest.
      So the SSW is caused by a trace gas of no significance? Especially as that gas is all in the LOWER troposphere.

      (Edited) CTS

      130

      • #
        theRealUniverse

        Correction, 4. Floods are arent out of,,,

        50

      • #
        Peter Fitzroy

        Deliberate misreading of my comment is not a defence nor an explanation.

        When was the last SSW? When was the last time Perth had 2 abnormally hot days at the end of winter? Why was the army used to fight the fires in Brazil? Why is tropical storm #9 intensifying to cyclone status and following the same track as Dorian? Why is the Beast from the East so early this year? Why are the Gondwana refuge rainforests burning in Queensland? When was the last time the Arctic burnt like it did this year? When was the last time Valencia suffered flooding in September?

        It is not one isolated event, now is it

        110

        • #
          el gordo

          ‘When was the last SSW?’

          Can’t give you an exact date, but the phenomenon would have been more common in the middle of last century.

          ‘Why is the Beast from the East so early this year?’

          Its news to me (do you have a link?) the beast doesn’t normally show up in summer.

          60

        • #
          el gordo

          Floods in Spain at this time of year are not unusual and this event is unrelated to climate change.

          https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-359.54,40.53,3000/loc=-5.774,33.421

          ‘Why was the army used to fight the fires in Brazil?’

          The UN leaned on them and then offered bags of money. From my earlier reading there was nothing untoward about this summer burn, except that the smoke drifted in the wrong direction and it became a climate emergency.

          70

        • #
          el gordo

          ‘Why are the Gondwana refuge rainforests burning in Queensland?’

          Queensland bushfires are not unusual for this time of year and humans are usually to blame.

          http://www.warwickhughes.com/blog/?p=6295

          50

          • #
            Peter Fitzroy

            El Gordo, I used the term Gondwana Refuge rainforest for a reason – the have not burnt ever, until now.

            last question
            When was the last time all these events, and others not listed, occurred In such a short space of time?

            27

            • #

              It’s funny,

              I keep trying to tell myself not to bite every time Peter Fitzroy gets it wrong, because putting up with his continual inferred abuse every time is getting a bit much, but his continual lie$ constant use of his version of his truth implies he knows what he’s talking about, when it’s basically just his handlers telling him what to write.

              Who would have thought I was so wrong all these years

              I used the term Gondwana Refuge rainforest for a reason – the have not burnt ever, until now.

              Having lived in the area since we moved here with our parents in 1960, and basing the area as my home during my term in the RAAF, I didn’t realise that those fires in these areas were actually non events.

              I spent time at the Binna Burra Lodge on three occasions, other than the twice yearly day visits with our Youth Group in the late 60s and early 70s, and in 1981, we spent our honeymoon at O’Reillys in Green Mountains for ten days. I distinctly remember one fire not long before the Hinze Dam went in. We were at a tea house in Advancetown, the small village that disappeared when the Dam was first constructed. As a Youth Group. we were chased out of having our Devonshire Tea when they told us the road may be cut off.

              Fires in those areas, while not common, were in fact real fires, but evidently not. I was wrong all these years. Who would have known, eh?

              Well, Peter Fitzroy knows the truth here, The facts be damned eh!

              Tony.

              70

              • #
                Peter Fitzroy

                Why do assume everything is about you? Why do you and all the others deliberately misread and misinterpreted my comments? Did I say Binna Burra?, O’Reilly’s or Advancetown?
                I was talking about fires in the Mt Hyland reserve.

                Still it suits you to twist it all about, which is just pathetic

                25

              • #

                See, there you go again, changing the subject, deflecting away from what you actually DID say.

                At no stage ever did you mention that you were referring to Mt Hyland reserve.

                In fact, in Comment 13.2.2 above, here is exactly what you said:

                Why are the Gondwana refuge rainforests burning in Queensland?

                So, you actually were talking about those rain forests in Queensland.

                Mt Hyland is in NSW Peter Fitzroy.

                It isn’t us who have twisted it about, it’s you.

                Every time you get caught out, you keep blaming us for it, when the fault is yours.

                Tony.

                60

              • #
                Peter Fitzroy

                Are you saying that Binna Burra, O’Reilly’s or Advancetown are gondwana rainforests? It is you that is twisting things around

                25

              • #

                Peter Fitzroy,

                seriously, have you checked here, before again running off at the mouth.

                Binna Burra, O’Reilly’s and where Advancetown once was are all in or close to Lamington National Park, and during this last week were on all the news bulletins in the State as all that surrounding area burned, and were all referred to as ….. Gondwana rainforests.

                That’s not MY twisting things around at all. It’s directly from the media itself.

                Obviously, you are not resident here in South East Queensland, or you would actually know this.

                Again with the deflection, having been caught out in an untruth again re Mt Hyland, conveniently deflected away from eh. You must think we can’t see what you’re doing each time you deliberately do this.

                Tony.

                60

              • #
                Peter Fitzroy

                So the Gondwana rainforest did burn .- make up you mind

                15

              • #
                Peter Fitzroy

                Tony – were those fires that you observed in your youth in the Rainforest Refuge? Can you identify the gondwana plant assemblages? Did any of them burn in the latest fires? What is the response of the species in those refuges to fire?

                26

              • #
                AndyG55

                But NOT for the first time Probably a regular occurrence, just like most other places in Australia.

                SO WHAT. !!

                You have NOTHING but baseless innuendo.

                NO EVIDENCE of anything untoward. PF.

                Just your manic desperation of find something, ANYTHING, that your tiny mind can link to climate variability by CO2.

                Its quite hilarious how you keep flogging that dead horse. :-)

                30

              • #
                Peter Fitzroy

                I’m guessing that Tony does not know anything about the ecology of the Gondwana refuge, which is why Andy is now answering. The question that I asked remains, when was the last time these forests burnt, and I know that for the surviving remnants the answer is never

                06

              • #
                AndyG55

                Caught in a LIE, PF

                Stop digging, you are near the centre of the Earth now. !!

                30

            • #
              AndyG55

              Poor PF, caught in a LIE, yet again.

              So sad-sap. !!

              40

            • #
              el gordo

              ‘When was the last time all these events, and others not listed, occurred In such a short space of time?’

              Off the top of my head, 1946.

              50

        • #
          AndyG55

          Only the most SCIENTIFICALLY IGNORANT and FANTASY OVERWHELMED could link to the SSW to human interaction of any sort.

          There were NOT two abnormally hot days in Perth. Just normal Perth weather.

          Brazil fires were shown to be mainly stubble from land clearing

          First major hurricane in a decade after a LONG period of not much.

          Cooling from the Beast.. so sad for the AGW fantasy, !!

          Forests burn when people light fires intentionally after a period of dry WEATHER.. an Australian NORMAL.

          Flooding can happen any time of year. Has before, will again.

          THERE IS NOTHING OUTSIDE NORMAL CLIMATE VARIABILITY.

          Stop your childishly IGNORANT hysteria, PF

          You make yourself look like GULLIBLE, BRAIN-HOSED little Greta.

          81

        • #
          AndyG55

          “nor an explanation”

          I can’t think of any explanation for your IGNORANT and GULLIBLY IDIOTIC posts PF.

          I can only put it down to some deep-seated mental disorder or an abject lack of any basic intelligence.

          62

        • #
          AndyG55

          “nor an explanation”

          It would be totally hilarious to see your explanation of the mechanism whereby human released CO2 has cause this SSW.

          We are waiting.

          It will be true slap-stick comedy for sure. :-)

          Why didn’t this SSW exist for all the periods when atmospheric CO2 was much higher than the pitifully small amount currently in the atmosphere ??

          Come on PF, mechanism and evidence. ;-)

          62

          • #
            el gordo

            Fitz could say the system is out of sync because of CO2, take the Pacific Decadal Oscillation as an example.

            ‘ … these decadal cycles have recently broken down: in late 1998, the PDO entered a cold phase that lasted only 4 years followed by a warm phase of 3 years, from 2002 to 2005, neutral until August 2007 and abruptly changing to a negative phase that lasted through 2013, nearly 6 years, with only a short … ‘ NOAA

            Of course there is undoubtedly a more rational explanation?

            31

            • #
              AndyG55

              He could fantasise, you mean.. and provide zero evidence.

              Grimm Bros were entertaining, but PF is more into Sci-fant than just fantasy fairy tales.

              51

              • #
                el gordo

                Those years cover the hiatus and there maybe a connection, I’ll check Skeptical Science.

                Blocking causes extremes in midlatitudes.

                “The main reason we are seeing these very warm conditions is we have a very stubborn high pressure system sitting over the centre of the continent and so that is basically preventing any cooler conditions from making it any further north.” Jonathan How / BoM

                30

              • #
                el gordo

                SkS talks about energy imbalance, but I can’t see it.

                The pause in temperatures over the past couple of decades was not a result of increasing CO2.

                ‘Separate statistically independent analyses are also carried out for three periods of GST (global surface temps) slowdown (1896–1910, 1941–1975, and 1998–2013 and subperiods); two periods of strong warming (1911–1940 and 1976–1997) are also analyzed. A reduction in total incident solar radiation forcing played a significant cooling role over 2001–2010.’ Folland et al 2018

                50

              • #
                AndyG55

                “SkS talks about energy imbalance,”

                Which is provable FALSE.

                The OLWR is very much in line with lower atmospheric temperatures.

                https://i.postimg.cc/QdXnDknT/CERESvUAH.png

                There is no imbalance.

                41

            • #
              Peter Fitzroy

              I’ve not mentioned CO2 or climate change (until now). I’m talking about a series of extraordinary weather events, all happening in close succession, and the need to consider that fact.

              It could well be down to blocking highs, ENSO, or pixies . That is not my point.

              26

              • #
                AndyG55

                So funny.

                You can LIE to yourself about what you were trying to imply.

                You aren’t fooling anyone but yourself.

                You are a known ZE-AGW catastrophist.

                41

              • #
                AndyG55

                “That is not my point.”

                True, your post was, as always POINTLESS.

                Note the slimy attempt at putting blocking highs and ENSO in the same basket as pixies.

                The pixies at the bottom of the garden are yours, PF

                50

              • #
                el gordo

                ‘I’m talking about a series of extraordinary weather events, all happening in close succession, and the need to consider that fact.’

                Nothing unusual is happening, its natural variability and we know this for a fact because there are no positive feedbacks.

                50

    • #

      Fires, cyclones, heatwaves, beast from the East…

      Our butcher at Carss Park back in the 1950s-60s thought the weather ‘n stuff had all gone crazy. He had a point, what with the 1950 Big Wet, the ’51 fires, the North Sea Flood, the Texas Drought, the 1956 European Cold Wave, the ’55 Hunter Flood making an inland sea, ’61 in WA…then the Australian Long Drought! Our butcher learnedly explained it had to be due to Sputnik, the A bomb, the H bomb and “those things they’re sending up”. Nothing else could explain it.

      Of course, we’ve moved on from that simplistic, mechanistic mentality.

      190

      • #
        Graeme No.3

        CORRECTION:

        Some of us have moved on from that simplistic, mechanistic mentality.

        Although Peter F’s problem may be that he is a descendent of Joseph Porter. Those who know G&S will recognise
        “I always voted at my party’s call,
        And NEVER THOUGHT OF THINKING FOR MYSELF AT ALL”.

        150

    • #
      sophocles

      Leave Cyclones out of your fantasies: they’re caused by the Solar Wind.

      70

    • #
      AndyG55

      “something unusual is going on”

      Mr CLUELESS PF speaks again

      Always the slimy, underhand innuendo.

      Because you have NO EVIDENCE of anything.

      Those FREEZING temperatures in Russia, Greenland etc etc etc

      Large dumps of snow in once warm regions.

      Same level of Arctic sea ice for last decade at least, which happens to be abnormally high for the last 10,000 years.

      101

      • #
        AndyG55

        ““something unusual is going on””

        NO IT ISN’T, behaving pretty much as would be expected with the sleepy Sun.

        101

      • #
        sophocles

        Well, Peter’s right this time Andy.

        Something unusual actually is going on. It’s just that he didn’t know what, as you so succinctly pointed out.

        It’s not every year/decade/century we have the planetary magnetic field reducing/weakening as rapidly as 5% per decade. It’s fall may even be accelerating. This allows/permits the Solar Wind to mix it in the Ionosphere with more effect than usual. As it continues to weaken, the Solar Wind effects will become stronger making tropospheric weather even more sensitive to Solar effects — it could become quite weird. So I have to agree with Peter that, yes, something quite unusual is going on. It’s not caused by any atmospheric gas, but it will steadily get worse, becoming more noticeable, until it gets better again and only God and the Angels know when that will happen.

        We don’t even know if it’s a “mere excursion” or a “full reversal” as the Laschamp was. There is nothing we can do to interfere with it. There is no Kontrol Knob to adjust it with. We can only watch.

        Ref: https://magneticreversal.org/

        I posted a bunch of links (about 5 or 6) a week or so ago to papers about magnetic reversals, so look back for them. I also emailed them to Jo so she might be able to put them up on a reference page of their own at some time. (I think some serious chocolate may be necessary to help that :-P )

        40

    • #
      Hanrahan

      Fitz, this is climate bingo.

      60

    • #
      el gordo

      ‘ … consider all these recent weather events in isolation …’

      That can’t be right sir, they have these teleconnections and SAM might be influenced by Sol?

      40

    • #
      Annie

      The ‘beast from the east’ is just a silly name given pretty recently for a very standard winter phenomenon Peter F. ‘Twas ever thus all the years I lived in England…the dreaded cold winter wind, especially when it was bearing lots of snow.

      50

      • #
        Annie

        Apart from all that I don’t expect climate never to change, with all the different sun, planet, etc cycles. The real climate d…..s are those who think the last 30 years are perfect and should never alter one tiny bit; absolutely daft.

        50

    • #
      Graeme#4

      I know that I’m late to this “party”, but PF, to say that 30 degrees during springtime in Perth is 10 degrees above normal is absolute BS. Perth regularly has temps ranging from 23 to high 20s in spring. So 30 is only a few degrees above “normal”, and as I’ve already pointed out, you cannot compare one temp from a measuring site totally different from the original measuring site, for reasons that I’ve already explained and you appear to be deliberately ignoring.

      40

  • #
    theRealUniverse

    http://spaceweathernews.com/
    LATEST SOLAR NEWS:
    (Sep 13 1115UTC) Space weather is calm but solar wind intensifications are expected towards the end of the weekend. No sunspots, no solar flares, no eruptive behavior.
    (Sep 11 1115UTC) The coronal hole stream went mostly south of earth – with only the edge weakly clipping earth’s magnetic field. All telemetry is calm and space weather is quiet.

    Gotta look upwards and outwards..

    70

  • #
    Bill in Oz

    The SSW is an interesting
    Unexpected phenomenon.
    But I suspect everyone is simply guessing
    What it actually means for the future weather
    in the Southern hemisphere.
    Before such interesting ignorance
    It is better to silently
    Wonder at the extraordinary
    Unexplained nature of the world we live on

    80

  • #
    sophocles

    Who remembers the folk song Where have all the flowers gone??
    and the final line of each verse: When will they ever learn? :-)

    This is a bit off topic but it does mention Antarctica! Honest!

    A charter ship (the MV Malmo) carrying some Climate Change Warriors (about 16 or so) along with a Documentary film crew also searching for Climate Change in the Arctic Sea, ran into trouble earlier this week.

    They were there to “Raise Awareness of the melting Arctic.” or some such silliness like that, and maybe to try and spot some more aerially aeronautical walrus testing their `wings.’ They had obviously learnt the lesson from “The Ship of Fools” in Antarctica a few years ago and maybe knew about the earlier Canadian, USA, and Chinese et al problems with Antarctic ice. So these bright bunnies headed North for the Arctic Ice Surface Melt Season (AISMS) … and got stuck in the ice. In the Svalbard Archipelago. Just like all the other ones up there, except they all happened around/near Baffin Island, and just like the Antarctic ARs (Awareness Raisers) in previous years.

    The CCWs (Climate Change Warriors and other passengers) were airlifted out in “difficult conditions.”
    The crew of the Malmo stayed put to await further assistance. (Ice Breaker(s) perhaps …)

    Its what happens when you believe in the propaganda, call sceptics “Deniers and don’t do your research properly. What can go wrong? There’s no ice, it’s all melted. Right? Yep, another lot falling flat on their faces … Ho Hum.

    It amused me and I immediately thought of that line from that song.

    IPCC Climate Modelling:
    ———————–
    Still off topic:
    The IPCC is going to be taking Solar particles into account for its modelling now. That will be Solar Wind instead of that highly restrictive TSI. Maybe, just maybe, the CIMP6 model(s) may be almost accurate. It will be interesting to see if Salar Magnetics are still ignored so we will have to see. Anything which improves modelling accuracy has got to be better.

    Things I will be watching for in particular is Solar Magnetic fields and Clouds. Solar Particles may include the Solar Wind, which will give more accuracy with Cyclones and their tracks, CMEs — cyclonic strength and so on.

    It will be interesting to see if they recognise Cooling Signals and their Business As Usual proclamations become more rigorous.
    Warming right to 2100 I think is a fantasy.

    140

    • #
      RicDre

      “… Maybe, just maybe, the CIMP6 model(s) may be almost accurate … Anything which improves modelling accuracy has got to be better.”

      Last I heard, some of the CIMP6 models were running even hotter than the CIMP5 models and they don’t really know why.

      In earlier models, doubling atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) over preindustrial levels led models to predict somewhere between 2°C and 4.5°C of warming once the planet came into balance. But in at least eight of the next-generation models, produced by leading centers in the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada, and France, that “equilibrium climate sensitivity” has come in at 5°C or warmer. Modelers are struggling to identify which of their refinements explain this heightened sensitivity before the next assessment from the United Nations’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

      https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2019/04/new-climate-models-predict-warming-surge

      40

      • #
        Kalm Keith

        Ric that summary is interesting.

        Modelling?? Hardly, more like fantasizing.

        60

        • #
          RicDre

          My favorite comment from the article:

          John Fyfe, an author of the report’s projections chapter: “It’s maddening, because it feels like writing a sci-fi story as the first-order draft.”

          Yep that is a good description of what they are doing.

          70

        • #
          RicDre

          I Just noticed another interesting line in the article:

          “For nearly 40 years, the massive computer models used to simulate global climate…”

          I’ve been writing computer programs for more than 40 years, but my programs stopped being massive when they phased-out punched cards in favor of on-line data entry. If their models are massive, does that mean they are still being entered on punched cards?

          40

    • #
      Kalm Keith

      Good read.

      “The IPCC is going to be taking Solar particles into account for its modelling now”.

      And even with this addition it still won’t be “modelling”, simply more, very expensive, misdirection.

      As mentioned previously, there is only note true model of CO2s interaction with temperature and that spans the last last half a million years and demonstrates a clear inverse relationship which the proponents of global warming want to keep hidden from view.

      Misdirection, sleight of hand, used to be called Magic.

      KK

      60

  • #
    Lionell Griffith

    The Ozone layer is causd by the ultraviolet light from the sun generating and energizing free Oxygen atoms so they are form O3 out of O2 and an energized Oxygen atom. O3 is an unstable molecule and will release the extra Oxygen atom over time.

    Antarctica has been in total darkness for many months (called Winter) it is not surprising there is not as much O3 as during the height of Summer. Add to that the fact the sun has entered a level of inactivity (low UV radiation) hardly seen since the depth of the little ice age, what is surprising is that there is still O3 left.

    It is interesting to note that the little ice age was well over 50 years ago so the fact that the current situation is unprecedented in the 50 year so called record is also extremely unsurprising. Cherry picked starting point? Looks like it to me. Any statement which includes “since records began” is with little utility for making ANY kind of prediction about anything. Especially if the time period is too short to include many cycles of relevant real world events of the same type.

    We must spend trillions more chasing a willow-the-wisp that doesn’t exist to save the globe that is performing exactly like it has in the past and does not need saving. We humans and the globe will do just fine without the help of these anti-scientists preaching the sky is falling. They have less real evidence than was had by Chicken Little. At least something did fall from above and hit her on the head.

    140

    • #
      Clyde Spencer

      Lionell
      Most of the ozone is produced in the tropics. It migrates towards the poles. However, when Antarctica is surrounded by the Winter circumpolar vortex, the migrating ozone is blocked. Look at any NASA ozone map and you will see anomalous highs outside the vortex, and lows inside the vortex. Ozone is unstable and decays naturally. In the absence of tropical ozone, and sunlight to make new ozone at the poles, the ozone level drops. In the southern Spring, while it is still very cold, photo-catalysis on ice crystals exacerbates the loss. However, once the vortex breaks up, the ozone levels increase quickly.

      This doesn’t appear to me to be the end of the so-called Ozone Hole, but rather the result of unusual weather.

      80

      • #
        Lionell Griffith

        Not unusual weather if you consider a long enough time scale. Yet the so called scientist who declared it as unprecedented, has a memory of the past of a gnat. If it happened today, it never happened before. If it happened before but did not happen today, it never happened.

        In my world of high tech computers we call that write only memory where data goes in and nothing comes out. Its worse than garbage in – garbage out.

        50

    • #
      Peter C

      What causes the Ozone Hole?

      the Antarctic ozone hole starts forming every year in August, reaches a maximum size in October and closes by December. Since early September, however, the polar vortex – a swirl of cold air in the stratosphere that provides the conditions required for severe stratospheric ozone destruction and the resulting formation of the Antarctic ozone hole – has been displaced off-centre and weakened by a sudden warming of the stratosphere. With temperatures in the upper stratosphere rising considerably (up to more than 40°C above normal), the polar vortex has been more unstable than usual.

      Normally, when sunlight returns to the polar region after the Antarctic winter, chemicals formed in the vortex during the polar night initiate rapid destruction of ozone. This year, cold air with low ozone levels has been mixing with warmer, more ozone-rich air from outside the vortex, which is likely diluting and deactivating a fraction of the ozone-depleting chemicals inside the vortex. This results in less potential for fast ozone destruction when the springtime sun arrives over Antarctica.

      From Jo’s reference at the Copernicus site (see above in main article)
      It does seem that they are speculating about the cause.

      40

  • #
    cedarhill

    About predictions, any word on the notch Fourier predictions?

    50

  • #
    Bill in Oz

    Been brousing Electroverse for a while.
    So many posts about snow, early frosts,
    Extreme flooding
    And early freezes.
    With major crop losses
    Not a tittle of whisper about anywhere warming up.
    The cooling sun is having an effect
    On Global climate
    https://electroverse.net/

    90

  • #
    pattoh

    Does anybody else get the feeling that the up-tick in catastophism looks like it is timed to make sure AGW/Carbon is in the Vanguard of NWO Agenda for whatever economic reset we have after the Bretton Woods> PetroDollar is replaced with a Global Currency?

    110

    • #
      David Wojick

      I think it mostly has to do with 2020 being the crunch year for the UN climate change program (UNFCCC). The developing countries expect to begin getting at least $100 billion a year from the rest of us. Not likely at this point.

      70

  • #
    Neil Taylor

    But, but,….. We solved the hole in the ozone layer, after we banned aerosols and CFC’s.

    You mean it’s still there?

    Shocked and stunned.

    100

    • #
      sophocles

      We solved the hole in the ozone layer, after we banned aerosols and CFC’s. You mean it’s still there?

      Sure is. It even has its own web-page. https://ozonewatch.gsfc.nasa.gov/
      [ https://ozonewatch.gsfc.nasa.gov/ ]

      It wasn’t discovered by the British Antarctic Expedition in 1984 as it is accredited to have been. It was discovered by Charles Dobson in the late 1950s and back then was known as The Antarctic Anomaly. So it’s been around for a while longer than alleged.

      If you’re interested, there is a good book (still available from Amazon):

      ROGELLO A.M, & SCHAUERHAMMER Ralf:“The Holes in the Ozone Scare; The Scientific Evidence the Sky isn’t Falling.”
      1992 21st Century Science Associates ISBN: 0-9628134-0-0

      The Ozone Scare could be called a “dummy run for the climate scare.” for how to create and manipulate public opinion with propaganda … You will also find out how the Montreal Protocol came about and its True Purpose …

      50

      • #
        John PAK

        The Brit Antarctic Survey later said that hot chlorine gas from Mt Erebus was the probable cause of rapid ozone break-down back in the early ’80s (and not chlorine from CFCs). NASA even adjusted their satellite data to allow for the expected volcanic chlorine effect upon ozone density.

        I find it curious that ozone is measured in Dobson Units and we had very good data after 1958 following international collaboration into atmospheric research. The world press quietly ignored all the info and made out that the annual region of low ozone density was “a hole”. Still to-day people talk about “healing” and “recovery” when there was nothing wrong with it in the first place.

        I guess most people just accept what the telly tells them. I had a straight A s Manchester Grammar student working for me ~2005 and he later scored a first in Chemistry from Oxford but he swallowed the Dupont funded ozone story hook, line and sinker. Strangely he knows that CFCs are 4X heavier than air and released mostly in the northern hemisphere yet he had trouble breaking his conditioning.

        30

  • #
    Zane

    The greeniacs will blame this surprise stratospheric warming on CO2.

    50

  • #
    Bill in Oz

    Fcats don’t matter
    Science does not matter
    The Greenists have an AGENDA
    It’s only the agenda that matters

    http://www.green-agenda.com/?fbclid=IwAR0x7aapV-8t58iX5MroGOrsRtVTC1JyQLV8nWgcJ4BfcUYSc4iZHUElyZA

    90

  • #
    Gordon

    BY JOVE I`VE GOT IT!!! Global warming is not caused by carbon. Hell is below right? So many people are burning in hell that all that heat is rising! That causes the antarctic to warm!!! Soooooo, if people would be nicer they would not go down there and global warming will stop. Makes sense to me.

    90

  • #

    Hmm!

    That ‘hole’ in the Ozone Layer, and how it is diminishing away to nothing at the moment.

    I was wondering that when the time came when it starts to grow again, will they blame chlorofluorocarbons again, or will we be told that it was not really the case first time around, or will they conveniently ‘look the other way’.

    I’m reminded of “You need Uncle Sam!”

    Tony.

    60

    • #
      el gordo

      They are assuming its anomalous and the hole should return to its catastrophic state very soon.

      When it doesn’t behave as they expect, being recalcitrant, the klimatariat will backslide because they have no plan B. The precautionary principle comes into play and the masses are happy to discover that it was only a natural variable after all.

      60

      • #

        I wonder who it was who made a shirtload of money first time round, asserting it was umm, chlorofluorocarbons.

        Why is it that ….. EVERY time, it’s always just about the money?

        Tony.

        60

        • #
          sophocles

          The money was made, and is being made, by the major shareholders in du Pont Industries and it’s licencees …

          60

        • #
          Environment Skeptic

          Hi Tony.
          I have used Barbecue gas (isobutane/butane) in an experiment some time ago which was in part due to my fascination with solar panels and fridges, especially using low voltage (12/24volt) with a brushless DC Danfoss heat pump/refrigerant compressor. It is still an interest today.

          As you may already know, Isobutane R600/butane has excellent properties for/as a refrigerant gas, and it is cheap :) . The first gas i experimented with was the ultra expensive :( 134a refrigerant gas. I am quite satisfied the r600 (barby gas) outperformed the r134a by a longshot, though my test were rudimentary. Mostly i had to experiment with the length of the capillary tube to get the best performance with each gas until i could not get further improvements in performance for r134a and then r600. Ice made with the fridge running r600 crackled a lot more than ice made by the fridge using r134a in my subjective observations :) In my experiments, i decided ice that crackled more was better as a criteria :)

          And then, as if some manufacturer/s already knew, or something mysterious or even extraterrestrial, the market is now flooded with efficient fridges that use r600 (isobutane), with a high star rating, at ridiculously cheap prices. hmmmm.. A patent for the ozone friendly gas R134a does not exist as far as i know, however, what ‘is patented’ or was, is the special manufacturing process of the gas by Dupont and a patent by ICI.

          Patent for R134a ? – Automotive Air Conditioning Information Forum

          https://autoacforum.com › messageview
          Apr 16, 2005 – 4 posts – ‎3 authors
          I was wondering who holds the patent for R-134a? Someone told me it was DuPont……..)

          10

      • #
        sophocles

        Dr Susan Solomon — a computer modeller — is ahead of us there. She claimed the Antarctic Ozone Hole “was showing signs of healing” … that was as the sun was sinking into its minimum about two or three years ago. Looking at the ozone hole web page
        https://ozonewatch.gsfc.nasa.gov/ the figures then didn’t show any sign of this magical healing …

        40

        • #
          el gordo

          The polar vortex in both hemispheres have become unstable, creating meandering jet streams and blocking, which is a sign of global cooling.

          20

          • #
            sophocles

            I’ll take that with one or two teaspoonfuls of scepticism :-P

            40

            • #
              el gordo

              Perisher good to go.

              ‘After “significant” snowfalls, an early opening in May, brutally cold temps and impressive Aug and Sept storms, 2019 has not only become one of the greatest seasons ever, but also officially Perisher’s longest season on record, at 136 days.’ Electroverse

              20

  • #
    Peter C

    Is Peter Fitzroy worth a response?

    I would say yes, on balance. He asks silly questions but gets good responses.
    In Reponses above Peter talks about Gondwana Rain Forest Refuges in Queensland.
    I had never heard of the term Gondwana Rain Forest Refuges before, either in Queensland or elsewhere. I presume that some one coined the phrase, but probably was not specific about the sites. So I have leaned something from the responses. Thank you for that.

    30

    • #
      RicDre

      “Is Peter Fitzroy worth a response? I would say yes, on balance.”

      I agree with this. We need questions to keep the discussion honest and you never know when a “silly” question might provoke an interesting thought or line of reasoning we had not considered before such as the Gondwana Rain Forest Refuges mentioned by Peter C.

      I am still bothered by the amount of ad hominems thrown Peter Fitzroy’s way; I understand why it is being done and can appreciate the frustration that provokes that response but I still feel it is unnecessary and detracts from some otherwise interesting and enlightening discussions.

      40

      • #
        Peter C

        I am not overly bothered by ad homs against Peter Fitzroy. He is deliberately provocative, so he deserves all the put downs that he gets. They are good for a laugh. I probably would not bother to read any of the discussions generated by him otherwise.

        40

        • #
          AndyG55

          “They are good for a laugh.”

          I will try to proceed in this vein from now on.

          Laughing at a FOOL in a clown’s costume!

          The poor guy is obviously desperately seeking some attention in his miserable, lonely and irrelevant life.

          I am here to help him.

          51

      • #
        Kalm Keith

        I understand your point Ric but from another perspective we are possibly in the predicament of being dominated, ruled and controlled by the Evil CO2 Global Warming paradigm because in the past nobody called out the lies for what they were.

        Up to the point where I stopped reading PFs comments he had never made the effort to make a comment or ask a question that had any basis to which a reply could be addressed.

        His comments were just blog clogging or interruption, never any debate or scientific offering.

        Perhaps he’s here just to goad responses, weird for sure, but the world can be a strange place.

        Outside the blog the world has been taken over by the Evil CO2 Global Warming paradigm because at each stage of its growth it was never confronted.
        At least here there’s token confrontation.

        KK

        40

        • #
          Kalm Keith

          A thorough analysis of the PF comments was attempted in order to assess the truthfulness, or otherwise, of his comments.

          The nominal assessment being to deterine impact on the blog and clearly the end point anticipated by the assessment must be defined according to its charter.

          But that is only true if the precursor of the anticipated end state is accurately predicted prior to the enactment of the process under assessment.

          Should that mid process data not be available then the initial baseline would be eliminated from the assessment resulting in substantial disconfirmation of the proposed analytical pathway and complete collapse of this important project.

          Unfortunately the data was so badly homogenised during transfer to the computer that final analysis was impossible.

          We tried.

          KK

          40

  • #
    col from Oz

    Snowing in Katoomba (1000m elevation) Snowing in Goulburn apox 600m, this could be outcome of the last SSW of a couple of weeks ago!

    10

Leave a Reply

  

  

  

You can use these HTML tags

<a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <cite> <code> <del datetime=""> <em> <i> <q cite=""> <strike> <strong>