JoNova

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Burn Money: wind farms in Tas and Vic are “correlated” — all useless at the same time

How to make electricity more expensive: build 1,000MW of random generation which needs expensive back up and an undersea cable too.

Tom Quirk and Paul Miskelly noticed that the team selling the new “largest wind farm in the Southern Hemisphere” on Robbins Island are claiming it will help stabilize the supply of intermittent power in Australia. Instead it’s likely to do the opposite. This is the same 1GW wind farm that even Bob Brown, former Greens leader, doesn’t want. An eagle-chopping eyesore.

UPC Renewables are claiming the correlation between the Tasmanian Robbins Island output is “very low” compared to the wind farms in Victoria. It would be nice if only it were true. Instead they apparently got their r mixed up with their r2 — and incorrectly claim the correlation is low when actually its dangerously high. I say “dangerous” because it’s a danger to the NEM — the national grid. The last thing we need is 1,000MW of useless extra energy that arrives when all the other useless energy arrives — exacerbating the ups and downs — driving the efficient baseload providers out of business even faster, and leaving the nation with an expensive headache and sitting on a knife edge of frequency hell.

And there’s no point (or any profit) without a second undersea interconnector, so who’s paying that bill? It’s being sold to the taxpayer as a necessary bit of infrastructure for the forced transition (that we didn’t need in the first place). All so UPC investors can make money.

Jo

 

____________________________________________

Tasmania – Australia’s offshore wind farm?

Guest post by Tom Quirk and Paul Miskelly

Is it possible that Tasmania could become Australia’s offshore wind farm? A proposal by UPC Renewables[1] [1] an international developer of wind farms, suggests that a 1000 MW wind farm could play on important role in moderating the intermittent supply of electricity from renewable resources.

UPC wants to construct what would be one of the largest wind farms in the world on Robbins Island, near Cape Grim in northwest Tasmania. There are two wind farms in the north of Tasmania that are part of the Australian Energy Market (AEM). These are Woolnorth to the west and Musselroe to the east. These and the proposed site on Robbins Island are shown in Figure 1 with the Victorian wind farm at Bald Hills, the closest mainland wind farm to Tasmania and along with the Basslink connection that joins the Tasmania grid to the grid in Victoria.

 

Wind farm, Tasmania, Robbins Island. Map.

Figure 1: Layout of operating and proposed wind farms in Tasmania, along with Basslink and Bald Hills in Victoria.

 

At present Tasmania with hydropower, wind farms and the Basslink connection has enough energy available for its own needs and is also able to supply surplus energy to Victoria as Basslink has a capacity of 400 MW, and for short periods of up to 4 hours, 630 MW. However adding 1000 MW potential of the new wind farm will require not only a transmission line from Robbins Island to the Basslink terminal near Launceston but also an additional 500 MW link to Victoria.

The key question is what will these connectors cost for the consumers and taxpayers?

However before discussing this, an independent assessment of the benefits, and also, any potential risks, of the proposed new wind farm, needs to be made.

In their submission, UPC Renewables provides an analysis that states:

UPC has done its own analysis of 5 minute NEM data for 2017 which demonstrates that the correlation between operating Victorian and Tasmanian wind farms is very low (i.e. R- Squares below 0.2 in most cases — refer Table 3 appended See Figure 2 below). This points to the value of development in geographical diverse locations to minimize coincidently high or low output and hence avoid the issues that coincident generation or lack thereof brings.”

The key point in the above quote is the use of the term “correlation”. A correlation coefficient ranges from +1 to -1 or 100% to -100%. The UPC quote above and their table quoted there refers tothe correlation coefficient as “R-Squares”, or “r2“. How or where does this r-squared term arise? The question arises because “R-Squares” is not a term in normal usage as a correlation coefficient[2].
A second point about looking at correlations among the outputs of these wind farms is that the energy generated as a function of time needs to be examined in detail as there may well be low correlations but nonetheless swings in energy output of any of the wind farms, even large swings, may occur, being not necessarily made apparent by the correlation analysis alone.

 

Robbins Wind farm, Tasmania, Musselroe, Bald Hills,

Figure 2: Extract from Table 3 appended to the UFC document. The table shows correlation values for the wind farms shown in Figure 1.and the average values for the 35 wind farms examined.


Given that there are ambiguities arising from the form of the UPC renewables statement as per the quote above, the rule in any such potential for confusion is: look at the data.

Correlations among selected Wind Farm outputs

 The 5 minute NEM data for 2017 has been obtained from the AEMO website and Figure 3 shows the 5 minute variations for the month of July 2017 for Woolnorth and Bald Hills. Figure 4 shows Woolnorth and Musselroe. These wind farms are about 250 km apart from each other.

 

Wind farm, graph, Woolnorth, Bald hills, 2019.

Figure 3: 5 minute variations for the month of July 2017 for Woolnorth and Bald Hills.

 

Wind farm, Graph, Woolnorth, Musselroe output.

Figure 4: 5 minute variations for the month of July 2017 for Woolnorth and Musselroe.

 

The correlation coefficient for Woolnorth against Bald Hills is 57 +/-  1 % and the value for Woolnorth against Musselroe is 54 +/- 1%. The error is so small as there are between 8,000 and 9,000 5 minute values for each wind farm.

But if you square these July correlation coefficients you get 32% for Woolnorth against Bald Hills and 29% for Woolnorth against Musselroe !

The full analysis of the 5 minute data is given in Table 1. The UPC quoted values are the squares of the correlation coefficients.

Table 1 Comparison of correlations coefficients

Month 2017

Woolnorth Bald Hills 2017

Woolnorth Musselroe

2017

 

Bald Hills Musselroe

2017

January

61%

25%

10%

February

47%

38%

25%

March

14%

14%

21%

April

54%

40%

29%

May

71%

52%

46%

June

81%

74%

61%

July

57%

54%

56%

August

65%

68%

56%

September

77%

65%

69%

October

65%

21%

36%

November

32%

24%

2%

December

43%

35%

25%

 

 

 

Year 2017

56%

45%

 

40%

 

 

UPC r2 value

32%

20%

16%

UPC r value

57%

45%

40%

 

Should this usage be in fact what UPC Renewables has chosen to offer in their presentation of the apparent correlations in wind farm output? It does pose one potential disadvantage for the case that they are presenting. The squaring of the correlation coefficient, remembering that the real, non-squared, value is across a range [-1, +1]), has the apparent advantage that, indeed, it results in a smaller numerical value An example from the table above gives the real value of the correlation coefficient (the bottom row of the table) is 57% or 0.57. Squaring this yields the value of 0.325, apparently a low value for the “correlation”. However, a possible value of -0.57, would have been much more supportive of the argument that UPC Renewables is trying to advance, then squaring this latter value to get +0.325.

However, the actual data show no negative correlations for the full year of 2017 (Figure 5).

Victorian wind power, output, June 2019, Graph.

Figure 5:  Full year correlations of Woolnorth against all other wind farms for 2017

 

In the event, the fact remains that the correlation is positive, and is significantly higher overall than the UPC Renewables paper would seem to suggest.

So what performance might be expected from this new wind farm?

Robbins Island is some 25 km from and immediately to the east of the Woolnorth wind farm so its performance should be similar. As an example, in South Australia, two wind farms, whose latitude and longitude data are separately published, North Brown Hill and Hallett 2, are 35 km apart and their correlation coefficient for the year 2017 is 85%. That is, their respective outputs are seen to track each other fairly closely. Therefore, given that the proposed Robbins Island wind farm would be even closer to Woolnorth than the 35 km that separates these two South Australian wind farms, it can be expected that, if anything, the output of the proposed Robbins Island wind farm would track that of Woolnorth even more closely.

So it is possible to model the Robbins Island contribution to Victorian wind farm supply by scaling both Woolnorth and Musselroe to 1000 MW as the behaviour of the Robbins Island wind farm. Table 2 show the contributions increase the intermittency. Figure 6 is an example of potential Victorian wind farms correlation to Robbins Island from Woolnorth scaled to 1000 MW.

Table 2: Victorian wind farm performance with added supply from Robbins Island

Wind farms

Correlation with Victoria

Capacity including “Robbins Island”

Annual average MW

Capacity factor

Mean 5 minute changes MW

% of changes over 100 MW

Maximum change MW

Victoria

 

1408

403

29%

10

0.13%

252

Woolnorth

47%

2408

802

33%

26

3.09%

941

Musselroe

24%

2408

774

32%

19

1.06%

964

 

Victoria, Robbins Island, correlation, wind output, graph, 2019.

Figure 6: 5 minute variations for the month of July 2017 for Victorian wind farms and Robbins Island scaling the performance of the Woolnorth wind farm to 1000 MW


Extent of the swings in total wind farm output

What has become a clear issue in the deployment of so much in the way of the ever-increasing proportion of the total installed capacity of both wind farms and solar PV installations is both the inherent intermittency of these forms of generation, and their virtually complete lack of a contribution to that all-important component of generation, system inertia, that is so important to the grid’s ability to deal with the stress of unexpected transients, such as that due to lightning strikes, loss of generation and bushfires passing under major transmission lines.[3]

One of the tasks required of the professional engineer in developing any proposal is the requirement to properly examine any and all likely worst-case scenarios.

The determination of a correlation index as performed by UPC Renewables does not address the matter of volatility in any way whatsoever. That volatility in the output of wind farms is clearly a concern can be seen by an examination of the total wind farm output on the Eastern Australian grid for virtually any month of the year. That for June 2019 is reproduced as Figure 7 below as a typical example.

 

Wind energy production, June, 2019, Australian, NEM, graph.

Figure 7 Total Wind Farm output of all AEMO-registered wind farms on the Eastern Australian grid for the month of June 2019[4]


The figure shows numerous occasions where deep minima in the output occur. Remember, this is the output of the total wind farm fleet. This also raises doubts about the UPC correlation analysis as recorded wind output varies by a factor of 10.

Clearly, if this supply were the only source of generation, then multiple grid-wide blackouts would have occurred during this month of June 2019 alone.

We need to keep very firmly in mind that supply and demand on the grid must be maintained in second-by-second balance. If the balance is not maintained 24/7, grid collapse, (the technical term for widespread blackouts), very quickly follows.

Now, let’s talk about the acceptability or otherwise of grid-wide blackouts. Remembering that a grid-wide blackout that lasts even a few hours can have catastrophic and even tragic consequences, and also remembering that the required “black start” after a grid-wide collapse may take several days to enable restoration of power, clearly a grid-wide failure occurring at any time is totally unacceptable. That this is so was a message brought home loudly and clearly to the British authorities after the occurrence of a widespread, very disruptive blackout on Friday, 10 August last. See, for example, the coverage in the Daily Mail.[5]

We may safely conclude then, that a grid-wide blackout, at a frequency of even just one in every ten years, is totally unacceptable.

So, what does the possibility of grid-wide blackouts have to do with the choice of whether or not to build a great, big, new wind farm, in northern Tasmania, the largest so far to be installed in Australia?

The clue can be found in an examination of either or both of the outputs of the Woolnorth and Musselroe wind farms shown in Figure 4. Each exhibits swings in output across the full range of its capacity, Woolnorth’s for example varying from zero to near its full installed capacity of 140 MW and back, and similarly Musselroe varying over its full capacity from zero to 168 MW. Furthermore, figure 4 shows that both wind farms vary in their output over their full range very frequently, if seemingly chaotically and frequently the swings over their full range occur quite rapidly. What is interesting is that the higher capacity factors demonstrated in the Tasmanian wind farms simply results in power excursions over the full installed capacity rather more frequently than might occur in lower capacity factor wind farms of mainland Australia. Maintaining control over the grid is a challenge where such uncontrolled variations are occurring, particularly where multiple generators are involved.

We can be quite certain then that should the Robbins Island facility be built then the grid operator will have to deal with an additional wildly swinging input varying from zero to 1000 MW and back, virtually fully correlated with the wild swings of the Woolnorth (and Bald Hills) wind farm. Without the building of a new 1000 MW gas-fired power station purpose built to back up this new wind farm, continued control of the Eastern Australian grid would be hugely challenging, if not impossible, to achieve.

 

Conclusion

Our analysis of the correlations among the various wind farms shows that the proposed wind farm at Robbins Island would add a very large additional highly variable, intermittent, supply that is positively correlated with the existing wind farm supply. As a result, any wind farm built at the Robbins Island location will merely add a large chunk of additional instability to what is an already increasingly unstable Eastern Australian grid. This instability is due to the inherent intermittency in the output of all wind farms and solar PV installations. As with all these other intermittent sources of generation, any such wind farm will also fail to provide the very necessary synchronous inertia provided by conventional dispatchable plant, inertia that protects the grid from the sudden shocks induced by such events as already mentioned. This second shortcoming is of concern if the Robbins Island wind farm is considered to be some sort of replacement for any coal-fired power station, to which UPC Renewables allude in their submission.

The sheer scale of the installed capacity of this proposal then should give cause for grave concerns for the continued operational stability of the Eastern Australian grid should it proceed.

Furthermore, our analysis shows that any suggestion that the building of wind farms at other sites in Tasmania would contribute the desirable output negatively correlated with that from wind farms in mainland Australia would require rigorous analysis before any confidence could be given to any such claim.

The development of the Robbins Island wind farm comes in two parts. The first stage of the farm would be a 500 MW installation. A transmission line would be needed to deliver the electricity to the Basslink station near Launceston. The second stage would add a further 500 MW and would require a second Basslink cable.

The impact would be experienced in Victoria as the wind farm output under the RET scheme has entry at zero bid price so receives the price set from the bid stack along with REC payment. Victoria already has some 4,000 MW of proposed or approved wind farms that will come into operation over the next five years. A further 1,000 MW will simply add to an already overloaded renewable intermittent energy supply.

This development by a supplier outside Victoria where there are limited interconnectors to other states shows that there is no effective planning for the development of electricity supply on a national scale.

 

REFERENCES


[1^] The UPS Renewables submission may be found at:

 https://projectmarinus.tasnetworks.com.au/wp-content/themes/Project-Marinus-theme/assets/RIT-T-submissions/RIT-T%20PSCR%20submission%20-%20UPC%20Renewables%2026%20October%202018.pdf

[2^]Correlations   That a term such as “R-Squares” is not commonly used as a correlation coefficient can quickly be ascertained by reference to any standard text on statistics. A website such as: https://www.statisticssolutions.com/correlation-pearson-kendall-spearman/ that discusses statistics in a very general fashion allows the reader to quickly determine what are the standard formulae and standard procedures.

[3^]  Past analysis: Miskelly A & Quirk T 2010, ” Wind Farming in South East Australia”, Energy & Environment Vol 21, Vol 20 Number 8 – Vol 21 Number 1 / December 2009 – January 2010. Available at: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/pdf/10.1260/0958-305X.20/21.8/1.1249.

Miskelly P 2012, “Wind Farms in eastern Australia – Recent Lessons”, Energy & Environment Vol 23 No 8 December 2012. Available at: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/pdf/10.1260/0958-305X.23.8.1233.

[4^] Courtesy Andrew Miskelly, from:http://anero.id/energy/wind-energy/2019/june)

[5^] Daily Mail at: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7343681/Government-launches-probe-mysterious-power-cut.html?utm_source=CCNet+Newsletter&utm_campaign=7c4c4723b7-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2019_08_13_12_23&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_fe4b2f45ef-7c4c4723b7-36403249

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Burn Money: wind farms in Tas and Vic are "correlated" -- all useless at the same time, 10.0 out of 10 based on 50 ratings

123 comments to Burn Money: wind farms in Tas and Vic are “correlated” — all useless at the same time

  • #
    Kalm Keith

    It’s good to get a highly detailed analysis of the operational usefulness and cost issues, Basslink 2?, before construction starts.

    Why isn’t the international investment aspect a surprise when we have international owners and distributors already holding and selling our water, it would seem only fair and reasonable to have international involvement in the entrapment of our wind and resale.

    Do we really believe that we have a government acting for Australians?

    KK

    220

    • #
      PeterPetrum

      There seems to be absolutely no one in Government who has real grasp on the engineering issues involved in this headlong rush to increase the “dependability” of the national network by increasing the proportion of intermittent, unreliable sources of power.

      Angus Taylor is a very nice guy, I am sure, but if he really understands the problems he does not not say so. I doubt he does.

      I have trouble understanding why the Government cannot tell our “gridmaster” to put an end to any more investment on intermittent energy until we can get our network stabilised by gas or coal. Why are they afraid of the Greens – they will never vote for a right wing party anyway.

      400

      • #
        Kalm Keith

        Good point Peter, but governments absolutely refuse to involve electrical engineers in this because it about the money and influence, not supply and cost and reliability.

        KK

        210

        • #
          Serp

          It’s all in the cui bono factor. Australian electricity consumers are being bled to enrich foreign money cartels.

          Somebody posted here in the last fortnight that Norway’s reindeer are being threatened by the pointless imposition of wind farms in a country which is ninety-eight percent hydro powered –the financier scoundrels will put this menace anywhere just for the sake of making themselves an extra few million quid.

          210

          • #

            Yep. Plunder and villainy are age-old motives.

            Big Green is mainly for relegating humans and all the creepy stuff. (Note how they always promote tech that’s old, feeble, diffuse, intermittent, unreliable, perishable, high-maintenance, destructive, import-dependent and hyper-expensive. If it’s not a white elephant they’re not interested. That’s why HELE and nukes are a vague promise while the money flows to Danish whirlygigs and Chinese solar panels. And get your cheap imported overstock batteries in a hundred days or they’re free! Oceanlinx was sort of Australian…but it sleeps with the fishes.)

            So Big Green is for humiliating and relegating the human “species”. But bribery, extortion, pillage and thievery keep up the interest.

            160

            • #
              Environment Skeptic

              The Brazilians have been exemplary in converting the amazon into bio fuel production via sugar cane. Brazil is now the top sugar cane producer in the world thanks be to sustainable fuels and green fuel production..

              We should convert back to sugar cane production like the Brazilians.

              20

          • #
            ColA

            Hey Jo,

            I have a correction for the title;

            all useless at the same ALL the time

            100

      • #
        Geoff

        Its ALL about getting re-elected, locally. Vote buying from Tasmania has gone on since federation. Angus Taylor is no different than any othe politician. He is not a Victorian or Tasmanian representative. ALL that worries him is his local voters in SE NSW. Screwing with the grid is not an issue that will affect him.

        Politicians do not care about the nation. The system they exist in does not allow them to make decisions that benefit everyone if it means a risk of not being re-elected. They are often dependent on government jobs. This is why our democratic system is not working.

        The real question is “Would Angus Taylor get a job outside of government if he lost an election?”

        It may be a surprise but many people in government employ would not be able (or willing) to work for private enterprise.

        71

      • #
        Maptram

        I don’t believe that the people who are responsible for building these wind turbines are aware of the issues either.

        Take the example of the windfarm to be built at Granville harbour in Tasmania, the subject of an ABC news item.

        https://www.abc.net.au/news/rural/2019-04-08/beef-farmers-tasmania-wind-farm-dreams-reality/10976378

        Extracts from the article

        The turbines work any time the wind speed is above 18 kilometres per hour.
        “Based on our experience here thus far I reckon it’ll be every day of the year and twice on Sundays,” said Lyndon Frearson, project director of Granville Harbour Wind Farm.
        The wind speed averages 30 kilometres an hour year-round on the west coast of Tasmania.
        Along the way Mr Smith has lost three clotheslines to the roaring forties — winds gusting up to 200 kilometres per hour directly off the Southern Ocean.

        Last time I looked at the BOM site, the average wind speed in nearby BOM sites was about 17 kph and the maximum was a bit over 100 kph. My guess is that for such gusts up to 100 and average 17, a fair bit of the time the windspeed is well below average. That’s what makes averages.

        81

    • #
      OriginalSteve

      No.

      But are in the front running for the Don Quixote / Man of La Mancha Award for tilting at useless windmills……

      Is there a correlation between high wind power output an blackouts/grid instability?

      30

      • #
        Graeme No.3

        Original Steve:

        Probably, but there is a very definite correlation between more renewables (installed by private firms) and the increasing expenditure of public money to accomodate the installation.

        Take South Australia where the State Government wishes that other States (SA being broke) should pay lots and lots for another interconnector to take away excess wind generation, and reduce the regular shutting down of wind farms when the wind blows strongly.

        70

    • #
      Aynsley Kellow

      Interesting article, but it ignores the Cattle Hill wind farm currently under construction: 48 turbines totalling 148.5 MW. This and Robbins Island are likely to add to grid congestion.
      That said, Tasmania, thanks to its substantial hydro assets, con integrate wind without expensive back-up – if you don’t mind a few dead eagles (see my article in this month’s Quadrant.

      40

    • #
      Alice Thermopolis

      The company building the Robbins Island wind farm – apparently the “world’s largest” , with state and Commonwealth support, is “Dream, Develop and Deliver” UPC Renewables Australia.
      But who exactly is UPC Renewables?
      According to the website, its “head office” is in Suite 1201, Tai Tung Building, 8 Fleming Road, Wanchai in Hong Kong. https://www.upcrenewables.com/contact/
      I searched high and low until the methane-belching cows came hom, but could not find a listing for it on a stock exchange.
      So ultimate ownership of this entity is not clear, at least to me.
      Could it be partly owned by Électricité de France S.A. in some kind of joint venture with China?
      “Curioser and curioser” said Alice.

      90

      • #
        Zane

        UPC seems to be a private company owned by an American wind carpetbagger from Cape Cod called Brian Caffyn. It was previously called First Wind, and before that it was known as UPC Wind Management LLC ie. a private limited liability company incorporated in the US. In 2009 one of his ex-partners was charged with fraud in Italy for running sub standard windfarms and milking subsidies. Mr Caffyn said he ” was surprised to hear that “, according to the Boston Herald. A lot of these renewable carpetbaggers grew fat during the Obama years. Yes, it has now formed a joint venture with the French government owned electricity giant EDF. (EDF has some institutional outside shareholders but the French govt owns 83.7% of the Group).

        It is always worth following the money and ownership trail. At the end usually lies a vested interest and a carpetbagger. I’m surprised the mafia haven’t got into the renewables racket yet. :) .

        20

  • #

    Australia must use diesel fuel-powered fans to spin the wind turbines when Mother Nature is quiet.

    This is not a joke.

    I am selling these fans — made in China, of course.

    Nuclear powered fans would be cleaner, but the design has not been perfected.

    Australia must remain “clean”.

    Don’t burn your Australian coal — sell it to China

    China will burn your coal to manufacture wind turbines and diesel fueled fans to drive them.

    This is 100% logical in the New Green World.

    My climate science blog,
    slightly more serious, is here:
    http://www.elOnionBloggle.Blogspot.com

    150

    • #
      PeterS

      For completeness, the next phase if for China to step in and take over once it has gone too far and wrecked our economy. Then China will start building coal and nuclear power plants. Then the left can watch in amazement how it’s done by the real communists.

      110

      • #
        el gordo

        Not sure about the nuclear, but it might be economic in South Australia because of the abundance of yellow cake.

        In NSW they will fix up Liddell to extend its life for another year, but Premier Gladys is against building new Hele even with out huge coal reserves.

        Angus Taylor is waiting for a report and will go from there: let the states decide between unsubsidised renewables, coal or nuclear power. A level playing field where the federal government underwrites only new coal fired power stations.

        In regards to Beijing, they have every right to be in our commercial market. Would you accept their tender to build the Ord to Bourke pipeline or the continental bullet train network?

        20

  • #
    Sean

    Isn’t nearly a third of Australia’s hydroelectric generation capacity in Tasmania? The biggest problem with wind is that is is intermittent. Hydro-electric works because there is a large reservoir of water that serves as a stored buffer and it can be throttled. (In fact pumped hydro may be part of the Tasmanian wind generation equation but I think its in the planning stages.) It seems that if wind and hydro are used in combination, they ought to be considered as a buffered wind generation system and from a performance standpoint should be a lot more reliable and stable. Cost may be another issue but wind and hydro operated in a complimentary fashion does make a lot more sense than wind alone or just wind and solar together.

    50

    • #
      RobK

      Sean,
      There is some logic in what you say, however, there is the problem that electrical power transmission lines and generating plant are sensitive to the rate of change of power. The upshot is that the higher the distribution of generation, the higher the cost of transmission because the network has to be much more robust(expensive), and there needs to be more of it. It has to cater for both intermittent use (lower utilisation) and high rates of change (requiring beefed up monitoring, control and buffering). This is so, even to get the large amounts of fluctuating energy to either the DC Bass Link or the pumped hydro perched in the hinterlands elsewhere. This represents massive infrastructure costs not met by the wind proponent, it is met by the consumer.
      RE has many hidden costs that will become an increasing burden as RE penetration increases. Costs will rise and reliability will decrease as complexity soars. I think this is a large part of the underlying thrust of the post. Even if there was inverse correlation with wind farms, they tend to be away from demand loads and the grid operators have to play a game of “whack-a-mole” trying to match supply and demand. It’s a nightmare.

      170

      • #
        RobK

        Additionally, the fact that wind farms tend to act in unison even only some of the time means there will need to be increased redundancy of generating plant, which means decreasing capacity factors, on average. Also, curtailment increases due to surging energy that risks pushing the limits of fault-current discrimination, the equipment that stops the grid from a meltdown.
        Increased redundant installed capacity and decreased capacity factor with higher transmission complexity , equals higher energy costs…..and nett reduction of CO2. for what that is worth, will be small, hideously expensive and risky.

        80

        • #
          Graeme No.3

          So what you are saying is that requiring the Robbins Island investors to BUILD THEIR OWN LINK to Victoria might lead to a re-think?

          50

          • #

            UPC say in their latest submission that only 500Mw of their site is worth developing without a second interconnector.

            Sean, yes, good point about the Hydro. The drawbacks —

            1. El Nino years and a lack of water will still happen.
            2. Straight off there’s 20% losses in pumped hydro. Whatever the capacity factor of wind is, cut it 20%.
            3. Generation is far from demand = more losses.
            4. Cost. Can anyone name pumped hydro that provides cheap electricity? Maybe there is — in Canada or Norway? But let’s compare them in height, size, rainfall, and in the retail cost /KWh.

            http://joannenova.com.au/2019/02/quick-tell-the-pm-pumped-hydro-is-not-a-generator-its-a-2-4b-energy-chewing-renewables-bandaid/

            100

            • #
              Sean

              Pumped hydro is not a new technology. It was has been used for decades to balance load generation with demand. I know in the TVA, there are nuclear power stations which most efficiently run full out all the time. To manage the ebb and flow of demand, the slack demand times pump water into a reservoir and is run out through turbines to generate power when demand increases. Because this is a daily cycle, they need only 4-8 hours of storage. Also, pumped hydro doesn’t need a lot of rain, just an upper and lower reservoir but certainly, bigger reservoirs would be needed for wind load leveling (several days worth of generation rather than hours). It’s also interesting that the South Australia blackout and the recent UK blackout both happened at times of strong wind generation. Perhaps the excess power needs to be diverted to recharging the reservoirs.

              50

              • #
                Erny72

                Hi Sean,
                The blame for the South Australian and UK blackouts can in part be attributed to high wind generation suddenly going offline (due to wind speed exceeding the safe operating limit for the wind farms plus a collapsed transmission line in the case of SA and due to a lightning strike tripping a wind farm and then very soon afterwards a gas turbine in the case of the UK); diverting generation to pumping water uphill wouldn’t have made a difference.

                00

            • #
              Erny72

              Hi Jo,
              We don’t do much pumped storage in Norway, what is done is to accept excess ‘lecky from Denmark and Germany when the wind is blowing, leaving the reservoirs full. Depending upon one’s perspective this is either very cheap or ruinously expensive, since the Danes and Germans have to pay the neighbours (in this case Norway) to take the excess generation off their hands. When when wind doesn’t blow, Norway can then run hydro power at at higher output than the domestic market alone demands and sell the excess (at high market rates) to consumers in Denmark and Germany. Although mild mannered, Norwegians certainly have inherited a penchant for rape and pillage from their viking ancestors.
              There are pie in the sky ideas about changing this so that Norway may act as ‘the battery of Europe’, you know, as an enabler of more unreliables in aid of the transition to a ‘low carbon economy’ but in between gushing about the opportunities, no one talks much who shall pay for the cost to modify existing gravity storage into pumped storage, nor the cost of the many thousands of kilometers of transmission line which would be required.
              There is also the small matter of dogmatic green’s opposition to damn dams, which is no different in Norway than it is in Australia, Iceland or elsewhere. Since no new dams are likely to be approved, one seriously considered idea is to use the North Sea as the down hill storage (to be fair to Noggies, it snows and rains so much here that they haven’t seen what happens when you introduce saline water into a fresh water environment, yet)

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    Reasonable Skeptic

    I have often wondered how it is that people in power, can so easily lie about basic stuff and not have to pay a price. Nobody ever comes to them with a lawsuit that says “you deliberately lied to make money knowing it would cost taxpayers”. It looks like all they have to do is say “Golly, we didn’t factor in all the stuff that the deniers were telling us.” and they walk away with money falling out of their pockets.

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      Kalm Keith

      That question keeps repeating over and over for me.

      The only thing that presents to me as a reason for them getting away with it is the modern media.

      There’s so much disinformation out and about that covers up much of what’s happening and people become confused and disoriented to the point that they just switch off and accept the lies.

      When the true science behind global warming can be covered up and our electricity production and distribution can be brought to near collapse we should be able to see that there are significant forces at work.

      In another age those forces would have been seen as undermining the integrity of our system of government and action taken to remove and punish the deceit and graft.

      In the meantime the two major parties take turns at raking off huge benefits which would have made even Don Corleone envious.

      The MalEx444 episode was just one of the more public events which demonstrates the purpose of government in Australia.

      When will it be stopped.

      KK

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      PeterS

      The vast majority of politicians are not very intelligent. Their critical thinking skills are not much better than that of a rodent. So we end up with bad decisions.

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    John F. Hultquist

    Hard to say whether the report uses “the coefficient of determination” to obscure the correlation or that the writer really does not know the difference.

    Regardless of that issue, I wonder if the “linear model” applies:
    r, is a measure of the strength and direction of the linear relationship between two variables” [Wikipedia] {my bold}
    A scatter plot and test of the ‘distributions’ would be nice.
    If the glove (model) doesn’t fit, you must give up and go home, or something.

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    EJW

    Looking at the output of the mentioned wind farms for the month of July in this article, the wave form reminds me of what I see when I look to my local tide table. In the southern Gulf Islands in British Columbia, Canada there is a normal wind behaviour we call tide wind. As the tide cycle proceeds over a month the winds increase and decrease locally and regionally depending on the cycles from large to small tides in a two week period. Inevitably in periods of small tides the winds are down and it is generally true for greater wind strength on large tides. As a mariner, I plan certain business out on the water to these tide periods as they are linked to wind strength and weakness and affect the sea conditions I must travel in.

    Thinking of the wind farm output periodicity over a month, the question I have is, do the planners evaluate the projected output of wind farms as they may relate to the monthly, weekly and daily tide cycles?

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      Kalm Keith

      Interesting, somebody mentioned last week the link between wind and moon.
      If the ocean tides are subject to the moon then it’s logical that winds will be linked to the same system.

      KK

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    Just Thinkin'

    This is like beating your head against a brick wall, hard and fast,
    to cure a headache…..

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    Travis T. Jones

    2018: The wind is slowing down

    “The planet’s rising temperatures are another likely culprit.”

    https://cosmosmagazine.com/climate/the-wind-is-slowing-down

    2018: Stronger west winds blow ill wind for [global warming]

    “Stronger westerly winds in the Southern Ocean could be the cause of a sudden rise in atmospheric CO2 and temperatures …”

    https://phys.org/news/2018-07-stronger-west-ill-climate.html

    Insanity on a stick.

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    Another Ian

    Well it is often said that the wind is always blowing “elsewhere”.

    So if you can prove you are “elsewhere” you must be on a winner?

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    raygun

    Sounds like ANOTHER Georgetown, TX boondoggle where their tax payers are stuck with US$Ms of worthless “Green Energy”. There’s nothing “green” about solar panels and wind turbines as they were built and installed with conventional resources (LNG, boiler oil, coal, diesel, gasoline, petroleum by products …..). I have received info on land based turbines with complete installation somewhere in the vicinity of US$150,000 and US$200,000 for offshore installations, minimum. Then there are the transmission lines. This needs to be killed ASAP for the hard working tax payers. Regards, retired mechanical engineer, physicist, astronomer and petroleum geologist, A REAL SCIENTIST.

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    [...] Jo Nova on the absurdity of more wind from Robbins Island in Bass Straight when we already have too [...]

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    NSW is going to have to sever the link to VIC at some point so this disease can be quarantined to SA and VIC, the prime culprits of duplicitous electricity supply disruption and increasing expense.

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      PeterS

      Good idea. I do hope there are management plans to do just that when the “disease” attacks NSW. As I said before the interconnects should be used as a last resort in an emergency and not for normal load sharing. Each state should have enough base load to be independent almost 100% of the time, excluding times of major storms, rare peak load requirements, such as a local heat wave, and the like. Of course we could look at it the other way. Let the renewables cancer eat away. Then imagine SA, Vic and NSW having a blackout at the same time for several hours or even days. Qld will likely be OK as they will just say “good luck” as they disconnect. That would be one big wake-up call for the government, and well deserved.

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      robert rosicka

      NSW and QLD will be faced with a choice this summer , load shed in their own state to keep Victoriastan going or pull the plug .
      If that happens both SA and Vic will reap the benefits of their green dream .

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    PeterS

    Is it possible to manage the additional instability as follows? Once there is a sign of it causing a problem to the grid just disconnect them off the grid and they can be on their own. When it happens often enough perhaps people will wake up.

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    Peter Fitzroy

    And yet renewables are taking a bigger slice of the market, and that is only going one way

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    Robber

    For some reason can’t reach anero.id site this morning – server error – to see generation by wind farm.
    But AEMO on this calm morning reports SA wind/other 83 MW (wind nameplate 1,808 MW), Vic 221 MW (nameplate 1,770), Tas 29 MW (nameplate 314 MW).
    So all well below average capacity factor of 30%.
    Per Nemweb, Woolnorth delivering 34 MW this morning, was 125 MW yesterday, Bald Hill currently delivering 34 MW, was delivering 100 MW yesterday. Macarthur delivering 36 MW, was 294 MW yesterday. Snowtown delivering 5 MW, was 300 MW. That looks like correlation to me.

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    Penguinite

    I don’t pretend to understand all the math encompassed in this assessment of the Tasmanian wind generated electricity but can easily see that the cost benefit analysis is hopelessly out of whack. Especially when the cost of a second Basslink cable and or a transmission line across Tasmania to connect with the existing one, is factored-in. All I can see is higher electricity prices!! And thousands of hectares of farmland destroyed or heavily compromised. We must be start staring mad! Better wake up Will Hodgeman!

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    Travis T. Jones

    Come on abc, howsabout promoting Australian jobs …

    Some of the Best September Snow in 20 Years WE’RE EXTENDING!

    https://www.perisher.com.au/perisher-news/perisher-now/1425-we-re-extending-2019-snow-season

    Not a word about unseasonal snow at their abc, but …

    Queensland bushfire conditions set to worsen across southern parts of the state
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-09-13/bushfire-conditions-set-to-worsen-across-queensland/11504938

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      Graeme No.3

      The ABC could all least suggest dumping the excess snow on the fires.
      But raging fires burning look so much more photogenic than snow just lying there.

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    David-of-Cooyal-in-Oz

    And the reliability of the links across Bass Straight don’t even get a mention. Basslink is still out of action with its second major outage in 3 years. So no power, however sourced, reaching the mainland, again.
    Cheers
    Dave B

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    a happy little debunker

    When running, Basslink funnels 25% of Tassie’s power generation (up to 30+% at peak) to Victoria.

    The money generated, for the most part – goes to Singapore.

    Now, can anyone explain why Tassie’s Government would want a Basslink2 – when Tasmanians would prefer to their government to use the electricity locally to bolster Tassie’s economic development.

    The average price (now that Basslink is down) for Sept is $45 per MWh – less than half of Vitoria’s.

    Any savvy business operator should realise that in Tassie you pay half the electricity costs (and BTW, pay 10% less in wages – than the National average).

    Tassie should be using these competitive advantages rather than exporting them to Victoria.

    Enough with the dumbassery!

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    David Maddison

    For what other product would a substandard delivery be considered acceptable? If one wishes to buy electricity it should be delivered at a constant voltage, frequency and current, not wildly varying from 0 to whatever is being contracted for on all three parameters. If windmill operators want to sell product it must be on the same terms as proper energy producers and needless to say, without subsidies.

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      PeterS

      Indeed. Yet the renewables industry (scam) has been given lots of assistance. It all stems from the wrong thinking by the LNP, ALP and Greens that we must keep reducing our emissions. Of course the LNP could continue that wrong thinking and put a halt on renewables by allowing nuclear. Yes more expensive than coal but at least they won’t loose face. Of course the better way is for the LNP to wake up and denounce the emissions reduction agenda as a stunt and a scam. I can’t see that happening any more than seeing the ALP doing the same thing. We are caught between a rock (LNP) and a hard place (ALP+Greens). Not good!

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    Robert Swan

    Yes, I’d have thought a negative correlation was the desirable thing — provide power when the others aren’t and vice versa.

    Still, if they want a low absolute correlation, that’s dead easy: have it generate no power at all. Might be one or two opportunities to save money with that approach too, so I’m for it.

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    pat

    for some reason, Jo’s top thread last nite was “Weekend Unthreaded”, which how now moved down one in her list. I posted stuff late last nite, including this one which mentions the Siemens Gamesa Hornsea “factory settings”. can’t see this mentioned by any other MSM:

    behind paywall:

    11 Sept: UK Times: Emily Gosden: National Grid calls for review of back-up power capacity
    The resilience of Britain’s electricity system may need to be improved in the wake of the worst blackouts in a decade, National Grid has admitted…

    It revealed fresh details of the recent blackouts, including the failure of a valve at a gas power plant and ***problems with factory settings on Siemens Gamesa wind turbines. More than a million homes were left without power in the blackouts on August 9, which triggered chaos on the rail networks, with 23 trains being evacuated and hundreds cancelled. National Grid blamed most…
    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/c4adde9a-d404-11e9-9149-9833d870d22d

    10 Sept: TheEnergyst: National Grid sheds light on blackout, response and protection
    National Grid’s report (LINK) into the 9 August blackout has shed further light on the causes of the frequency drop…
    Citing Ørsted’s incident report, the ESO states that the configuration of Hornsea’s network was a “contributory factor” to its deloading and that its turbine controllers “reacted incorrectly”. Ørsted has since updated its systems…
    https://theenergyst.com/national-grid-blackout-frequency-response/

    Updated 12 Sept: EasternDailyPress: Hope grows that Norfolk countryside won’t have to be dug up for every new wind farm
    by Tom Bristow
    An energy firm has raised hopes that huge trenches will not be dug through Norfolk every time a new offshore wind farm is built.
    But it comes too late for three currently planned wind farms in the North Sea which will need two cable corridors to be carved across the countryside.

    To connect them to the National Grid the windfarms – called Vanguard, Boreas and Hornsea 3, need two trenches, up to 60km long, to be dug from Weybourne to Swardeston, and a second trench from Happisburgh to Necton.
    That has sparked fierce opposition from campaigners and studies show there would be severe disruption caused by HGVs and the construction.
    The work is meant to start from 2021 and could last several years…READ ON
    https://www.edp24.co.uk/news/environment/offshore-ring-main-for-norfolk-coast-national-grid-1-6263863

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    pat

    o/t but posted the following Bloomberg last nite, when MSM were claiming Happer was leaving because of John Bolton’s departure:

    12 Sept: Bloomberg: Climate Science Critic to Follow Bolton in Leaving White House
    By Ari Natter
    A National Security Council adviser who praised carbon dioxide and spearheaded efforts to create a presidential committee to review climate science is leaving the administration, following the departure of his patron John Bolton.
    William Happer, a physicist, is stepping down from his post on Friday, according to the CO2 Coalition, a think tank that touts the benefit of carbon dioxide emissions. Happer formerly led the organization.
    “We believe your work in calling attention to the problem of unscientific climate alarmism has reduced the chances of the dramatic increases in energy prices that would arise from the banning of fossil fuels that some have proposed,” the group said…
    NSC representatives didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment…READ ON
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-09-11/climate-science-critic-to-follow-bolton-in-leaving-white-house

    12 Sept: Science Mag: Why a high-profile climate science opponent quit Trump’s White House
    By Scott Waldman, E&E News
    When William Happer realized this summer that his plan to question climate science had been shut down by the White House, he knew he’d stick to his ***promise: to serve exactly one year in President Donald Trump’s administration and then leave.
    Happer’s original idea to review climate research involved a team of scientists who would critique government science reports and play up the areas of uncertainty. It would be centered on attacking the National Climate Assessment and potentially be used to mount a challenge to the endangerment finding, the scientific underpinning of federal climate policy, according to several associates of Happer.

    “He at least injected a little backbone into Trump’s generalized strong distrust of the climate crisis narrative,” said Caleb Rossiter, executive director of the CO2 Coalition, based in Arlington, Virginia, which Happer founded to promote more fossil fuel consumption…
    His last day is 13 September.
    And though Trump was keenly interested in Happer’s ideas, they ignited opposition among White House advisers who viewed the plan to openly attack climate research as a risk to Trump’s prospects for reelection…

    “Trump didn’t bring him on to challenge climate science, while he was there, working on the NSC he began to make these proposals and they were taken extremely seriously,” Rossiter said.
    “At some general meeting, Trump turned to him and said ‘Will, how’s that committee going that I approved?’ And that’s when you know it’s time to leave Washington, because he thinks he approved it, and he thinks you’re working on it and, of course, you’re a couple levels down below him,” he said.

    It’s a ***coincidence that Happer’s exit is occurring together with the abrupt departure of former National Security Adviser John Bolton. Happer told friends more than a month ago that he would leave on 13 September, according to multiple associates. A small ceremony will be held at the White House tomorrow to recognize his service…

    The plan was shelved after a number of Trump administration officials, including science adviser Kelvin Droegemeier, suggested that it could be harmful to the president during the 2020 campaign…
    Happer’s departure was celebrated by Democratic lawmakers, environmental groups and climate policy think tanks…
    Happer, who recently turned 80, will return to Princeton University, where he is an emeritus physics professor…
    If Happer’s plan to review climate science had not been shelved, he likely would have stayed at the White House for a bit longer, said Myron Ebell, the former head of Trump’s EPA transition team.

    But Happer’s most important work from the perspective of those who reject climate change will go unfulfilled, Ebell said. That was to provide a scientific basis that could be used to challenge the endangerment finding.
    “The ultimate goal was once the National Climate Assessment was exposed as being based on junk science and models that have been falsified, I think once that was done, then it would be natural to reopen the endangerment finding,” Ebell said.
    https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2019/09/why-high-profile-climate-science-opponent-quit-trump-s-white-house

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  • #

    Don’t lose sight of the fact that a new and horrendously expensive 500MW Link across Bass Strait is still only less than 2% of Australian power consumption, and will only ever benefit either Victoria (one way) and Tasmania. (the other way)

    It’s such a pity that an article like this will only appear here where readership is limited to those of us who come here, because everybody needs to read what is written there under Figure 7 where it starts: (my bolding here)

    The figure shows numerous occasions where deep minima in the output occur. Remember, this is the output of the total wind farm fleet……

    It also says this: (again, my bolding here)

    We may safely conclude then, that a grid-wide blackout, at a frequency of even just one in every ten years, is totally unacceptable.

    Having done the data now for almost a full year, and having watched this closely for more than ten years now, just this last year’s worth of data shows almost 75 Plus days when there are times during those days when the total supply from the whole Wind Plant Fleet is delivering LESS THAN 2% of what is being generated from every source for consumption.

    That’s the whole fleet, spread across the whole of Australia, not just in one localised area, again, putting to the sword the idea that if you have a wider coverage then there will always be wind blowing somewhere, which is patently untrue.

    This is (so far) 6702MW of Nameplate delivering less than 500MW, and on more than 70 occasions in a year.

    Well, what do you do when there are occasions like this. That actually is a grid wide blackout if wind, solar, and rooftop is the way we are headed for the future.

    You ramp up wind power by a factor of, well, whatever, multiply it by five or even ten, and there will still be times when it will be under that 2%, even 20% (multiplied by ten) and you still get blacked out ….. grid wide.

    What do you do then.

    18000MW required ABSOLUTELY ….. 24/7. Current wind average – 2010MW from 6702MW. Up and down on a daily basis, meaning blackouts on a daily basis.

    Read all that where I suggested starting from, just from the start under Fig7 down to Conclusions.
    Tony.

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    Maptram

    I recall a ABC news item earlier this year about a 31 turbine wind farm at Granville Harbour in Tasmania.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/rural/2019-04-08/beef-farmers-tasmania-wind-farm-dreams-reality/10976378

    “The bases of the turbines require 700 cubic metres of concrete to hold the turbine down and beneath those foundation we have 130 holes to be able to stabilise the ground underneath,” Mr Frearson (Project Manager) said. That’s a lot of concrete that uses CO2 emitting cement.

    So the proposed Robbins Island windfarm, one of the largest in the world, will have even more concrete. Whether there will be any effect on CO2 levels at the joint CSIRO/BOM Air Pollution measuring station at nearby Cape Grim will depend on where the cement is produced.

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      Kalm Keith

      The cement base and last 10cms of the steel tube are still in situ on Kooragang island, Newcastle, where our token windmill once stood.

      This eco friendly solution, to leave it in the ground, saves a lot of money in rehabilitation costs.

      KK

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    John

    Fascinating. I’d have assumed (based on nothing much) that it’d have smoothed out between Vic and Tasmania providing more even supply.

    Is it similarly problematic with solar that’s far apart?

    20

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    Travis T. Jones

    Germany’s Merkel: Climate spending is ‘money well invested’

    https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/business/sns-bc-eu–germany-climate-20190911-story.html

    >> Hundreds of billion$ of dollar$ and no observable prevention of global warming …

    How much does Germany’s energy transition cost?

    https://www.cleanenergywire.org/factsheets/how-much-does-germanys-energy-transition-cost

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    pat

    saw a news ticker on Russia Today last night about Germany’s economy being destroyed by “renewables”. can’t find anthing in English online, but found this. have included some of the English-language sub-titles on the screen during the piece. easy to follow. worth keeping in mind Russia’s gas interests, etc., but most of the detail has been reported elsewhere:

    Youtube: 4min54sec: RT Deutsch: Energiewende: das Ende der deutschen Wirtschaft? (Energiewende: the end of the German economy?)
    Report: Germany’s “green turn” threatens energy supply, economy; Critics of Merkel’s green plan: “Monstrous Deindustrialisation”; electricity bills soar as renewables take over power grid.

    (part summary translation) The network regularly needs to be stabilized with energy imports from abroad. Not only are these imports electricity from non-renewable sources. The prices of this energy are also exorbitantly high.
    Germany has the highest electricity prices in Europe. The climate debate threatens to bring the automobile industry to its knees. Industries emigrate to countries where they are allowed to emit CO2 without limit. The green policy of the Federal Government could destroy the German prosperity.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ozVs1VW0ANg

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      OriginalSteve

      The aim of the gaia worshipping occultists who have run all this are doing it to basically drive humanity back to a low energy life to protect thier mythical “gaia”.

      De-industrialisation is the what.

      The green agenda is the how.

      The greens/communists/useful idiots of all political flavours are the who.

      In effect, anyone who is involved is actively carrying out euthanasia on our way of life for the benefit of an occult agenda.

      The useful idiots will be disposed of when it suits the Elite, whether it be disease, starvation or a global war, they want 500 million people and will drive hard for it.

      When you understand the bigger picture, it makes sense of the local ‘lunacy’.

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    Another Ian

    O/T but around this area

    “Who in their right mind is going to buy beer because it’s produced using solar electricity?”

    https://www.michaelsmithnews.com/2019/09/vbs-marketing-clowns-are-at-it-again.html

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    Another Ian

    Very O/T – Brexit maybe really on

    “BREXIT, Supremacy Of EU Exit Law 10/31, & Commencement Act”

    https://chiefio.wordpress.com/2019/09/12/brexit-supremacy-of-eu-exit-law-10-31-commencement-act/

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    pat

    partial google translation:

    12 Sept: Handelsblatt: Germany needs more speed in the energy transition – and must rely on hydrogen
    In order to achieve the climate goals, hydrogen must become the central element of climate protection. The federal government and the EU should change their funding policy.
    by Stephan Weil
    In order to achieve the binding climate protection targets, Germany must increase the share of renewable energies in gross electricity consumption from currently just under 40 to 65 percent by 2030. That’s what the coalition agreement says…

    But while everyone in the world is talking about climate protection, wind power expansion in Germany is as low as it has been in twenty years. Wind energy summit back and forth – Minister Altmaier is still on the brakes, worse, it threatens the reverse gear: From 2020 to – according to a draft regulation of the Federal Network Agency – again 13 percent fewer tenders for wind turbines are allowed on land than before.
    In this way, the laboriously built up in Germany wind turbine production is gradually reduced again. Further job losses would inevitably be the result – and in a future industry…
    The expansion of power lines must be accelerated, and at the same time it is necessary to set up decentralized generation structures…

    If we were able to generate more electricity from renewable energies throughout Germany in the future, we would need fewer power lines. Electricity production from renewable energy would not have to be curtailed if better conditions enabled sector coupling and switchable loads…

    So far, the federal government is irresponsibly ignoring the many ways in which renewable energy can be converted into hydrogen and stored. It has long been possible to produce hydrogen or methane from renewable electricity.
    A high-performance hydrogen economy would be an important energy-policy component alongside electromobility, wind power and more. It can pave the way for a carbon-free economy. The technology has been tested and storage could be based on an existing natural gas infrastructure…

    Due to the current framework conditions, implementation on a large industrial scale is still pending. The high burden of the electricity price due to levies is still blocking the development of the hydrogen economy. Investing in a climate-friendly technology can not be cost-effective, because politics prevents it. The exact opposite would be correct: The hydrogen economy must be specifically promoted…
    In Lower Saxony, the world’s first line-operated train is already being powered by hydrogen. In the housing industry, too, this elixir of sustainability has long since become aware: heat from hydrogen as part of self-sufficient neighborhoods…

    If you want to be competitive with climate-friendly technologies such as hydrogen, you need reliable start-up financing. The federal government and the EU must change their funding policy. If the EU takes its “decarbonisation” agenda seriously, European state aid law needs to be adapted.
    New technologies must be optimally promoted. This certainly includes a tax and duty policy based on the specific CO2 emissions of the respective energy source instead of the previous EEG apportionment. But it must be predictive and realistic.

    ***LINK: More: In the budget debate, Angela Merkel is preparing the ground for the GroKo climate package. Climate protection will cost something – but doing nothing is more expensive.
    https://www.handelsblatt.com/meinung/gastbeitraege/gastkommentar-deutschland-braucht-mehr-tempo-bei-der-energiewende-und-muss-auf-wasserstoff-setzen/25008940.html?ticket=ST-34351770-DWLCEedffE7aalZKU1Yl-ap3

    ***from the link:

    ***However, not for Merkel’s restriction that the expansion of renewable energies must also find acceptance among the population. When building new power lines, you have to go through court trials. One would have to shorten the procedures
    Merkel warned that climate protection could lead to a split. Wind turbines would not be built in the city. It is necessary to prevent “the arrogance of those living in the city” from those in the countryside…

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    pat

    behind paywall:

    13 Sept: Tagesspiegel: Energy transition creates security unrest
    by Matthias Jauch
    The international energy transition is disrupting old value chains – with consequences for security and geopolitics. Some players at the largest industry gathering, the World Energy Congress in Abu Dhabi, fear instability from rapid change…
    https://background.tagesspiegel.de/energiewende-schafft-sicherheitspolitische-unruhe

    12 Sept: FirstPost: AFP: Transition to renewables important, but fossil fuels remain in the Gulf’s future agenda
    Gulf nations have invested tens of billions of dollars in clean energy projects, mainly in solar and nuclear
    In the vast air-conditioned halls of an Abu Dhabi conference centre, the world’s much-vaunted transition to clean energy is the buzzword in sessions of a top industry gathering.
    But many executives and officials from oil-dependent Gulf states insist that while the change to renewables is essential, fossil fuels remain the future at least for the next few decades, despite the urgent need to fight climate change…

    Speakers addressed issues like the role of nuclear, hydrogen gas and other non-conventional sources of energy as a replacement for fossil fuels which currently account for over three quarters of the world’s energy consumption.
    However, delegates from oil-producing countries and particularly those in the Gulf argued that although the transition to clean energy sources must be supported, they will not be able to meet rising demand any time soon.

    “For decades to come the world will still rely on oil and gas as the majority source of energy,” said the head of Abu Dhabi Oil Co. Sultan al-Jaber.
    “About $11 trillion of investment in oil and gas is needed to keep up with current projected demand,” over the next two decades, he told the congress which was attended by representatives of 150 nations and over 400 CEOs.
    Energy from increasingly competitive renewable sources has quadrupled globally in just a decade, but insatiable demand for energy particularly from developing economies saw power sector emissions rise 10 percent, a UN report said last week.

    “All energy transitions – including this one – take decades, with many challenges along the road,” the CEO of Saudi energy giant Aramco, Amin Nasser, said at the conference.
    Nasser said his country supports the growing contribution of alternatives, but criticised policies adopted by many governments that do not consider “the long-term nature of our business and the need for orderly transition.”…

    But critics say the addiction to oil is a tough one to kick, particularly when supplies remain abundant and the massive investment in infrastructure necessary to switch to renewables is daunting…
    “A global shift from dirty fossil fuel to renewable energy is economically, technically and technologically feasible… All that is missing is political will!” said Julien Jreissati from Greenpeace in the Middle East…
    “There is no doubt that the world will leave oil behind. The only question remaining is when will this happen?”…
    https://www.firstpost.com/tech/science/transition-to-renewables-important-but-fossil-fuels-remain-in-the-gulfs-future-agenda-7328401.html

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      pat

      9 Sept: World Energy Council: World Energy Scenarios 2019 launched
      New World Energy Scenarios discuss three plausible pathways to 2040 focusing on the impact of “disruptive innovation” on energy system.
      On Monday, September 9th 2019, the World Energy Council in collaboration with Accenture Strategy and the Paul Scherrer Institute launched an updated World Energy Scenarios report. Among the key findings, per capita energy demand projected to peak before 2030 and innovative net zero carbon pathways include hydrogen…

      Launched today during the 24th World Energy Congress in Abu Dhabi, UAE the World Energy Scenarios 2019 report provides an update of the Council’s global energy scenarios, presenting plausible pathways to 2040 with a focus on the broad and fast shifting landscape of innovation.

      ***The three musically-named scenarios are: Modern Jazz, which represents a ‘digitally disrupted,’ and market-driven innovative world; Unfinished Symphony, a future in which more ‘intelligent’ and circular economic growth models drive clean, affordable and sustainable energy transition; and, Hard Rock, which explores the consequences of inward-looking policies and weaker and unsustainable economic growth, in a more fragmented world…
      https://www.worldenergy.org/news-views/entry/world-energy-scenarios-2019-launched

      9 Sept: World Energy Council: World Energy Scenarios 2019: Exploring Innovation Pathways to 2040
      The world of energy is being reshaped by a set of fundamental drivers, which we term the “Grand Transition”…
      Fragmentation and polarisation of leadership and poor economic returns limiting the license to invest for market players are emerging as some of the biggest risks in managing successful energy transition…
      DOWNLOAD 8-PAGE SUMMARY OR 152-PAGE FULL REPORT: World Energy Scenarios 2019 Full Report
      https://www.worldenergy.org/publications/entry/world-energy-scenarios-2019-exploring-innovation-pathways-to-2040

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    Richard S

    The second paragraph of the guest post has “These are Woolnorth to the east and Musselroe to the west. ” These are, of course, the wrong way around. Woolnorth is to the west and Musselroe to the east.

    10

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    pat

    12 Sept: Largs&MillportNews: Exclusive: Last Hunterston turbine to be blown up
    The original intention had been to dismantle the components of the 177m 6MW Siemens turbine by crane but technical issues have put paid to this plan.
    Instead a controlled demolition with explosives will take place on September 19, weather permitting.
    Bosses at SSE say that the decision has been taken following consultation with police, North Ayrshire Council and Hunterston Nuclear Station, due to the close proximity of the power plant.
    Scottish Natural Heritage and the Civil Nuclear Police at Hunterston have also been consulted.
    Principal contractors Keltbray will be securing the site in the days leading up to the blast and will establish an exclusion zone on the day.
    Independent councillor Ian Murdoch told SSE that he had been contacted by concerned residents, while Fairlie Community Council and Cumbrae Community Council have also raised questions about the demolition blast.
    Cllr Murdoch asked SSE and the local authority about dust extraction and pollution control measures.

    He has been told that there will be dust control mitigation while oils, lubricants and contained pressure gasses have already been removed from the turbine.
    Keltbray say they will have a team ready on site to respond to any residual spills and will also have lined skips on site ready to respond.
    The area will be dampened by water before, during and after the felling operation to contain fibreglass dust.

    The blades will break on impact and a full tidy up of the area will be conducted, with the turbine felled in a direction to keep it as far from the water as possible.
    Cllr Murdoch has been assured that due to the direction of the felling the risk of blade fragments making it to the sea is very low.
    SSE say they waited until the bird breeding season was over and that the young will have fledged before they proceed with the works…

    “The detonation is planned for Thursday 19 September, weather permitting.
    “If it cannot be done that day, it will be done sometime before 1st October…
    https://www.largsandmillportnews.com/news/17897817.last-hunterston-turbine-blown/

    behind paywall:

    12 Sept: UK Times Ireland: Dozen wind farms put on hold by planning rules
    by Brian Mahon
    At least 12 plans for offshore wind farms are being held back until the government passes legislation, the industry has said.
    Ireland has no law that allows companies to apply for offshore planning permission. Over the summer ministers published a draft bill to address the issue.

    David Connolly, chief executive of the Irish Wind Energy Association (IWEA), said: “Somewhere in the region of 12 projects are just waiting. About 12 to 15 wind farms are just waiting now for that [planning system] to be put in place.”
    The government approved the drafting of the legal text of the bill in July, a spokesman said…
    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/ireland/dozen-wind-farms-put-on-hold-by-planning-rules-nlcmf6l7d

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    pat

    12 Sept: WBNG12: Comments on both sides heard aloud at public hearing for wind turbine project in Sanford and Windsor
    The New York State Public Service Commision held an open discussion to place wind turbines in the towns of Sanford and Windsor, regarding the company Bluestone Wind’s petition to get certified for the project…
    Many locals spoke against the project’s certification, expressing concerns over environmental and health issues. Other concerns they elaborated on include how the turbines could lower property values and create an eyesore for the overall public and tourists.

    “These turbines are almost 700 feet tall and have never been built on land, so one of our concerns is where is all the safety data for these turbines? They contain a lot of toxic metals and lubricants and they produce infrasound, which can travel six miles and still hurt people,” said member of the Broome County Concerned Residents coalition, Anne Lawrence. “If they have to be built somewhere in New York State, then they should definitely not be in a residential area where people are living right under them.”…

    Meanwhile, residents like Carol Hall who has been living in the Town of Sanford for more than 40 years, says she doesn’t see a problem with this project…
    https://wbng.com/news/local-news/2019/09/12/public-hearing-for-wind-turbine-project-in-sanford-and-windsor/

    12 Sept: Honolulu Civil Beat: ‘This Is Our Mauna Kea’: Oahu Wind Farm Opponents Say They’re Inspired By Big Island Protests
    As protesters on Mauna Kea fight the development of the Thirty Meter Telescope for a ninth week, residents on Oahu’s North Shore are drawing inspiration from the Big Island as they fight a land battle of their own.
    A community group in Kahuku has been trying unsuccessfully to stop the installation of eight wind turbines that would add to a dozen already standing in the area. At 568 feet, the new turbines would be the tallest in the state…

    Members argue the wind project, developed by the AES Corp., is too big and too close to neighbors. The turbines would be within about a third of a mile of Kahuku Elementary School, and opponents are worried about noise pollution, flickering shadows and loss of property values.
    There are also environmental concerns including threats to native hoary bats, or opeapea, which are sacred in Hawaiian culture. Dozens of them have been killed in recent years at the Kawailoa Wind Farm…
    https://www.civilbeat.org/2019/09/this-is-our-mauna-kea-oahu-wind-farm-opponents-say-theyre-inspired-by-big-island-protests/

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    pat

    13 Sept: AFR: Battery project line-up defies lingering market risks
    by Angela Macdonald-Smith
    Australia’s fast-moving transition towards renewable energy has driven an explosion of interest in grid-scale battery projects nationwide but their wide-scale deployment is expected to require changes in regulation and market rules to ascribe value to the services they can deliver.
    Battery proponents point to the ability of large-scale storage not only to provide grid balancing and smoothing services much more quickly and accurately than coal and gas plants, but to act as peaking power plants, replace the need to augment interstate transmission lines and help unlock new renewable energy resources.

    Battery energy storage is “not a one-trick pony”, said Jaad Cabbabe, senior manager of business development in Australia for Fluence, the storage services joint venture between AES Corporation and Siemens…READ ALL
    https://www.afr.com/companies/energy/battery-project-line-up-defies-lingering-market-risks-20190912-p52qk9

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    • #
      Serp

      “Grid-scale battery projects”! Roll up, roll up, gullible investors…there’s one born every minute, nobody ever went broke underestimating the intelligence of the general public…etc, etc …and we’ll all be driving battery cars too, recharged from the grid-scale battery project in your area.

      This rubbish transcends all hitherto held notions of irrationality and we shuttered all the lunatic asylums forty years ago –where are we going to put this mob?

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    pat

    Craig Kelly on Sky just now with a Greens senator called Jordan Steele-John. Sky host brings up Littleproud’s sceptical CAGW quote in relation to the bushfires. Kelly quotes study about the reduction in fires etc, but Steele-John would have none of it.

    Steele-John says everyone knows if you put CO2 emissions in the atmosphere and then throw a match into it, there will be fire (or something to that effect).

    Kelly asked if he’d read the study he was referencing; Steele-John admitted he hadn’t. Kelly said he would send it to him.

    60

  • #

    Hmm,

    Here’s me wondering out loud again.

    If those two renewables of choice (wind power and solar power) can now generate their power sooooooo much cheaper than any other traditional source of power generation (say, umm, coal fired power) I was wondering why any entity at all would even consider constructing them, and generating power that is not going to make them any money, and in fact over time, make them even less money.

    Please don’t tell me that private entities are doing this out of altruism.

    Believers will make up say anything, won’t they, especially when they know that their followers will believe whatever it is that they tell them, eh!

    Tony.

    100

    • #
      Chad

      The cost to produce the electricity , is never the same as the wholesale cost,
      As generation becomes more unreliable , the wholesale (market) cost increases together with the generator profit .

      00

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    pat

    12 Sept: ClimateDepot: Time Editor Touts All-Climate Issue, Insists ‘There Is No Other Side’ – ‘There is no other side to the science’ – MSNBC host warns of ‘climate emergency’: ‘It’s stunning that there are still people who are skeptical’
    LINK Newsbusters by Kyle Drennen
    On her 9:00 a.m. ET hour show on Thursday, MSNBC anchor Stephanie Ruhle welcomed the editor-in-chief of Time magazine on the program to promote the liberal publication’s latest issue devoted solely to preaching climate change activism. Amid all the fearmongering in the segment, Ruhle and her guest declared that “there is no other side” in the debate over the topic.
    “Time magazine’s brand new issue is solely dedicated to climate change and only the fifth issue where every single page is dedicated to a single topic,” Ruhle gushed as she brought on editor and CEO Edward Felsenthal…READ ON
    https://www.climatedepot.com/2019/09/12/time-editor-touts-all-climate-issue-insists-there-is-no-other-side-there-is-no-other-side-to-the-science-msnbc-host-warns-of-climate-emergency-its-stunning-t/

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  • #
    Felix Krull

    Seems to me that wind has an inbuilt Enron-mechanism, where rolling brownouts job up the prices.

    40

  • #
    pat

    13 Sept: EnergyMag: Energy Networks Australia annual award winners announced
    The Energy Networks Australia 2019 Annual Awards winners have been announced, recognising businesses delivering customer outcomes and solving complex problems in the energy sector…

    Other finalists for the consumer engagement award were Horizon Power’s Solar Incentive Scheme, Powerlink for its 2023-27 Revenue Determination and SA Power Networks’ community engagement for its 2020-25 Tariff Structure Statement.

    Victorian Energy Minister, the Hon Lily D’Ambrosio MP, presented the Energy Networks Industry Innovation Award to South Australian transmission network ElectraNet for its Dalrymple Battery Energy Storage Project…READ ON
    https://www.energymagazine.com.au/energy-networks-australia-annual-award-winners-announced/

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  • #
    el gordo

    ‘Developing countries are forecast to emit more carbon dioxide than developed ones by mid-century. Chinese investment is projected to speed up that process in key countries linked to the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), China’s global infrastructure plan, according to a new report.’ Chinadialogue

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  • #
    Zane

    There can never be too much wind for Dan Andrews.

    20

  • #
    pat

    13 Sept: TasmaniaExaminer: Manufacturers drive Tasmanian power surge as TEMCO call nears
    Tasmania’s busy manufacturing sector drove up statewide energy use in 2017-18, but worries about a drop-off and price spike remain.
    The federal Environment and Energy Department’s Australian Energy Update 2019, to be released on Friday, showed Tasmanian energy consumption increased by 1.5 per cent in 2017-18.
    That went against a trend of declines averaging 0.5 per cent a year since 2008-09.

    ***One of the big users, South32, is continuing to ponder the future of its TEMCO smelter at Bell Bay, with a decision expected in October.
    State Shadow Energy Minister David O’Byrne recently said: “TEMCO is one of the biggest energy users in Tasmania and, if it closes, fixed transmission costs will be redistributed across the network, which means higher power bills.”…READ ON
    https://www.examiner.com.au/story/6382743/manufacturers-drive-tasmanian-power-surge-as-temco-call-nears/

    ***12 Set: TasLabor: Minister secretive over reports of energy supply restrictions
    by David O’Byrne MP, Shadow Minister for Energy
    Has Temco’s energy supply been restricted?
    •Government not working to prevent Temco closure
    •Tasmania can’t have a repeat of 2016 energy crisis

    Will Hodgman has not denied that Temco at Bell Bay has had its energy supply restricted as a result of the current Basslink outage…READ ON
    http://taslabor.com/minister-secretive-over-reports-of-energy-supply-restrictions/

    10

  • #
    Zane

    UPC is a vehicle mostly owned by Brian Caffyn. He is the guy pushing this project. Interestingly he got divorced in August 2007 and the case notes give details as to Mr Caffyn’s background as ” a successful wind entrepreneur ” and net worth. To sum up, he had to pay his former wife about $41 million…https://caselaw.findlaw.com/ma-court-of-appeals/1015872.html

    Looks like he is trying to recoup some cash flow… :) .

    Amazing what a google search dredges up.

    40

  • #
    Zane

    The history of a previous entity known as UPC Wind is interesting.

    It was set up in 2002 and changed its name to First Wind in 2008. https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20080501005280/en/UPC-Wind-Announces-Change-Wind

    In 2008 First Wind was sold for $2.4 billion to SunEdison and TerraForm. https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/sunedison-and-terraform-buy-first-wind-for-2-4b-to-become-renewable-projec

    In 2016 SunEdison filed for bankruptcy. https://www.investopedia.com/investing/sunedison-classic-wall-street-boom-and-bust-story/

    ;) .

    No further comment.

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    Another Ian

    On the power scene

    “Guest Post: The Australian Energy Market”

    http://catallaxyfiles.com/2019/09/13/guest-post-the-australian-energy-market/

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    Oscil Latory

    It’s a typo. I suspect they meant to say R-squared, which is a commonly used statistical quantity known as the coefficient of determination and reflects how much of the variation of one signal can be explained by the other.

    10

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    OldOzzie

    Behind Paywall

    Judith Sloan sums it up

    Blackouts, high costs: generating powerful trouble

    I was channel surfing the other night and briefly turned on the ABC nightly news (which, by the way, contains a lot of non-news). I caught a story about a newly installed large-scale solar development in western Victoria that has the capacity to power 46,000 homes.

    Actually, 46,000 homes is a relatively insignificant number but, importantly, the reporter failed to ask the project spruiker what would be powering the homes when the sun was not shining.

    That’s the trouble with intermittent sources of energy — they are intermittent and their peak capacity doesn’t align with peak demand. There have to be backup forms of generation.

    This story occurred during a week when periods of zero (or even negative) wholesale electricity prices were recorded in some states because of the abundance of solar and wind power at certain times.

    Mind you, you shouldn’t think solar and wind farms aren’t receiving any revenue for generating electricity when the price is zero or negative.

    Renewable energy certificates are still providing a source of cash — the price is about $40 to $50 per megawatt hour — and the operators of many of these installations have signed agreements with state governments (and some private companies) that guarantee their cashflows.

    But here’s the most important part of the story: how can it be that we have periods of the day in which we have zero, negative or low wholesale electricity ­prices yet overall wholesale prices are still high and rising?

    Before I answer this question, let me remind you of the perennial assurances given by the renewable energy industry that electricity prices will fall as the proportion of electricity generated by renewable energy increases.

    Consider the modelling done for the Warburton review of the renewable energy target undertaken in 2014. The prediction given to the review panel was that even the high RET that existed at the time — the target was 41,000 gigawatt hours by 2020 — would have no significant impact on electricity prices or would lead to lower prices.

    This was predicated on the assumption that baseload generators essentially would be unaffected by the high rates of subsidisation of renewable energy associated with the RET. The turbines would just keep spinning.

    As events panned out, and notwithstanding the revision of the RET to 33,000GWh, the business models of baseload generation have been significantly affected, with the exit of some major installations including the Northern power station in South Australia and Hazelwood in Victoria.

    And here’s some more recent information: the RET has already been met, given the rollout of renewable energy installations, yet wholesale electricity prices have never been higher. According to reneweconomy.com.au, “the last financial year ending June 2019 saw wholesale electricity prices rise in every state in the NEM (national electricity market). Victoria had the highest increase on the previous financial year at 19 per cent, followed by South Australia (12 per cent), Queensland (8 per cent) and Tasmania (3 per cent).”

    It is also noted that wholesale electricity prices have tripled across the past decade in Victoria and Tasmania, and have doubled in Queensland, NSW and South Australia.

    And this was a decade during which the RET was operative.

    In recent years it has been the constant refrain of the renewable energy industry that renewable energy, even with firming to ensure 24/7 reliability, is now cheaper than fossil fuel generated energy. But if that is the case, why is it that the renewable energy industry continues to ask governments for interventions — the term policy certainty is a favourite — to promote renewable energy over other fuel sources?

    The truth is that the RET has delivered what was expected — large swaths of intermittent renewable energy.

    The fundamental problem now is that there is too much renewable energy in the system, given the existing transmission arrangements, the lack of storage and the declining proportion of reliable baseload generation.

    So what are the possible solutions to this damaging dilemma and what are the likely costs of these solutions? Are there any overseas examples that could guide our politicians?

    On this last question, a new report by McKinsey on Germany’s energy transition policy named Energiewende has called into question the wisdom of the reform. The adjective “disastrous” is used in the report. Note that Germany’s policy has much in common with our approach.

    “Problems are manifesting in all three dimensions of the energy industry triangle: climate protection, the security of supply and economic efficiency,” says the McKinsey report.

    Not only has Germany failed to meet its own targets for emissions reduction, its reliance on importing electricity from neighbouring countries also has risen.

    “The ongoing phase-out of nuclear power by the end 2022 and the planned coal withdrawal will successively shut down further secured capacity,” the report says. “In particular, the industrial regions of western and southern Germany (will be) affected.”

    Returning to the east coast electricity market in Australia, the first and most obvious solution is to extend the lives of the existing baseload plants as well as sharpen the incentives for owners to spend appropriately on maintenance and upgrades.

    It looks as though the life of the Liddell coal-fired power station in NSW’s Hunter Valley will be lengthened by at least six months; guaranteed arrangements with large customers could extend this further. Increasing the supply of reliable dispatchable generators more generally should be part of the mix.

    The next possibility is to create separate markets within the NEM — for capacity and frequency services, for instance. In the past, the coal-fired plants offered these services incidentally, but this can no longer be assumed. But setting up a capacity market — paying operators just to be available — doesn’t come cheap.


    Then there is the nonsensical idea of demand-management in which large users are paid to reduce their demand for electricity at certain times. This is real Third World stuff and comes at a cost.

    There is the option of new transmission lines being built, including some interstate ones. This is expensive and takes some time to execute. The possibility of a transmission line between South Australia and Victoria has been discussed since Mike Rann was premier of SA in the early 2000s.

    There are also some complications about getting interconnectors approved as regulated infrastructure, thereby guaranteeing a given rate of return and spreading the cost to all consumers. The companies associated with this part of the supply chain are always keen to secure favours from governments.

    There is a certain irony that this option should be discussed, given the role that the gold-plating of poles and wires, mandated by new government regulations, played in driving up electricity prices in the early 2010s.

    And at some stage Snowy 2.0 should become operational — at a considerable cost — which will create substantial storage capacity for parts of the NEM.

    The short-term outlook is grim. Blackouts are on the cards this summer and prices remain extremely high. Parts of manufacturing are teetering in the context of high and variable electricity prices. Many plants won’t be able to hang on unless prices and their volatility can be reduced.

    It’s hard to see how the implementation of a combination of the possible solutions, most of them costly, can alter the outcome now.

    10

  • #
    Paul Miskelly

    Hi Anton (comment #23),
    I had hoped that you would jump into the discussion as I know that you also have studied this AEMO data
    in detail and over a very long time.
    Regarding the high frequency of occurrence of these deep minima in total wind output, thank you for addressing that very point, and for your expansion of it. What you have said is absolute gold.
    (We could have gone much further into that aspect in the report but felt that we might be obscuring the
    report’s original reason, that of the elucidating the curious correlation methodology used in the UPC
    Renewables submission.)

    Your mention of the 75-plus days during the last year where total wind output is less than 2% of what is
    being generated from every source for consumption invites a comment.

    In the 2012 paper referenced in our article (and still freely downloadable), I reported then that,
    looking at the wind data for calendar year 2010, I found (from memory) some 109 occasions
    where total wind output on the eastern Australian grid was less than 2%
    of total installed wind generation capacity.
    I’m not sure if you and I are using the same metric, but if we are, then we can say that the expected
    smoothing supposedly due to geographic dispersion of wind farms simply hasn’t happened in the years since
    to any significant extent, even though there is now a far larger installed capacity,
    (which you quote as being presently 6702 MW), than way back then.
    Along with that increased installed capacity comes the penalty of those far larger swings in output,
    in absolute MW terms, swings that make grid control an increasing nightmare as installed wind capacity increases.
    Paul

    10

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    Tombstone Gabby

    I’ve been following AEMO’s Data Dashboard for a while. Over the past couple of weeks Tasmania hasn’t imported or exported any power. Their price per GW/H seems to be very low. Is it the fact that they’re isolated from the grid? Should Queensland go the same way?

    00

  • #
    Tombstone Gabby

    Drat – per MW/H…..

    00

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