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Now even Green IEA warns Australia of the threat of “avalanche” of renewables

Even heads of green institutes are telling Australians not to go too green too fast

The IEA is the kind of organization that runs global summits selling carbon capture. That’s a process so fantastically inefficient  it wastes 40% of the electricity a coal plant makes while it stuffs a useful fertilizer in a hole in the ground. With that context, I note that even the IEA is warning Australia not to get too carried away in its Speeding Green Transition. Presumably Faith Birol, IEA head, is worried The Renewable Crash Test Dummies might actually crash.

First, the other news today of how fast we are adding unreliable infrastructure:

About 3400MW of solar, more than the capacity of Victoria’s twin Loy Yang coal-fired plants, is expected to be installed this year in Australia with a further 4300MW next year, according to the Clean Energy Regulator.

– Perry Williams, The Australian

To put that in perspective, our total grid is 56,000MW. We only had 4,000MW or so of unreliable power in December last year and were already struggling. Now we have 6,000MW and look like adding another 3,400MW of solar – in the next year. And that doesn’t include the extra wind power. The Crash Test Dummies go double or nothing?

The IEA not only calls this an “avalanche” which we need to back up, but also warns we shouldn’t add a carbon price on top:

As Labor looks to revive the government’s now-abandoned national energy guarantee — underpinned by a 50 per cent renewable energy target — the Paris-based International Energy Agency says Australia needs to ensure an “avalanche” of clean energy supply is backed up by firm generation to keep the lights on. It also cautioned Australia about the perils of introducing a carbon price out of step with other developed nations as Labor mulls over its policy on the issue in the lead-up to the election amid a renewed campaign against a “carbon tax” by the Morrison government.

Bill Shorten, Labor opposition leader, is even scaring the green establishment players?

With a Labor win looming in our next federal election (6 months away) it appears even some eminent Green fans are worried Bill Shorten might drive the Australian grid and economy right off the rails. Presumably if we get too far ahead of the other trainwrecks-in-action they might balk at the flaming spectacle ahead?

The ideal process, apparently, is to all get wrecked at the same speed.

Neoen, owner of the giant Tesla battery in SA has jumped on that bandwagon too. Xavier Barbaro, Neoen’s head says the IEA is right.  –“Renewables rush poses risks to reliability of energy supply: warns Neoen”. But how much is he concerned about sensible policies and how much is he concerned that the goldrush for renewables is also attracting fly-by-nighters?

 “The national government and the state government should be very careful about who is in charge of developing renewable energy projects,” Mr Barbaro said. “At Neoen we have proven we can deliver, but that’s not the case for all of our competitors.”

Barbaro translated “Give us your money”.

Would you like $79 billion of useless infrastructure with that?

Now pair up these two statements. One estimates in the next 22 years Australia will spend $79b on infrastructure that doesn’t work much, and just $2b on old coal plants that do:

It is estimated about 90 per cent of the $88 billion forecast to be spent adding power capacity in Australia until 2040 will be outlaid on clean energy, according to Bloomberg New Energy Finance. Just 2 per cent will be spent on coal, with that ­investment more likely to keep existing, ageing plants running rather than bringing in new coal-fired power stations.

The next paragraph tells us that those cheap old coal plants make 75% of our electricity:

That influx of cheap but intermittent supplies of wind and solar threatens to undermine ageing baseload coal generators in the national electricity market, which currently produce about 75 per cent of generation on the nation’s east coast.   – Perry Williams, The Australian

And the $79-billion-dollars-of-part-time-generators will be driving the cheap reliable part out of business.

Would you like to buy a second hand car that works two days a week (but you can never predict which day)?

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203 comments to Now even Green IEA warns Australia of the threat of “avalanche” of renewables

  • #
    Leonard Lane

    How did Australia get into this unreliable power and more expensive mess? Follow the money and you will find the solution.

    250

    • #

      Or figure out what should have stopped this… all roads lead to the media. All they had to do was interview the best of both sides.

      Though any of our noble academic institutions could have spoken out but didnt. Think CSIRO, Faculties of science and engineering, as well as AEMO.

      622

      • #
        OriginalSteve

        I look forward to “Climate Nuremberg Trials” , Jo.

        History will be particularly harsh on those involved I think….

        240

      • #
        RobK

        The IEA is quite right. The experiment is going way too fast. There are no economic storage technologies (except hydro where practical and built without greenies). Some storage may become useable as the cost of electricity rises sufficiently but the scale of the storage and its rated power will need to be of the order of scale that baseload now provides. Effectively, in the meantime, legacy baseload and peakers will have to fill the gap that storage would ultimately play (in their dreams of approaching 100% RE). The fact that legacy baseload will do so at ever increasing cost as standby infrastructure is conducive to the wishful thinking that some form of economic storage will appear on the scene. It wont be cheap, simply because the scale is so large, even if the unit cost of storage came down a lot. The experiment has gone too far already. The longer the subsidies persist, the greater will be the cost to rectify the damage done and return to a competitive electricity system.

        370

        • #
          Jonesy

          The IEA know one thing above all else…It Is A Scam! Like all scams, those running it know they need to pick their mark. If open slather, victims or those close by see the scam for what it is and the whistle is blown and the gravy train is derailed.

          310

      • #
        el gordo

        ‘… all roads lead to the media.’

        Totally agree, a future Royal Commission will say the watchdog lost its teeth.

        250

        • #
          Greebo

          By the time that might happen Bill will have turned us into a Republic, so any Commission is unlikely to be Royal.

          80

          • #
            el gordo

            Malcolm Turnbull badly wants to be president of the first republic, so you are probably right.

            90

            • #
              Greebo

              Why else would he be getting all matey with one of the hoi polloi? They’ve done, or are doing, a deal. Destroying ScoMo’s one seat majority ( Mal’s fault, remember ) was merely the beginning. You can bet that he and Lucy didn’t spend their time in Manhattan taking in the sights.

              170

              • #
                Len

                The Liberals lost the seat of Wentworth because the State Liberal Party Director produced incorrect How to Vote cards leaving out box 10. Invalid votes were 9711, more than enough to knock out Kerryn

                10

      • #
        Greebo

        And now, with the ACT Government planning to sue, we’ll have the legal profession to add to that list..

        50

      • #
        David-of-Cooyal-in-Oz

        Afternoon Jo,,
        The SMH is a prime example:
        A sample of three letters.
        The first was published in SMH (Sydney Morning Herald) Wednesday Dec 5, 2018.
        The second sent by me to SMH also on Wednesday Dec 5, was in response to the first, but not published Thursday Dec 6.
        But the third was one of the four warmist-themed published by SMH Thursday Dec 6.

        The SMH editorial edict, outlined in reply #35 on Wednesday, is still functioning.

        The first:

        “NStokes on target

        Take a bow Rob Stokes (‘‘Stokes accuses federal Libs of ‘wilful ignorance’ on climate’’, December 4). I have wanted to ask a question of climate change sceptics for some time. Which is it, arrogance, sheer ignorance or stupidity that makes them think they know more than the world’s best brains and scientific experts? It is a huge price that we and future generations will pay for their ignorance. – Tatiana Podmore, Cremorne ”

        The second, my reply, sent the same morning:

        ” No Tatiana Podmore, none of the above. At least some of us have studied the evidence and found it wanting. E.g CO2 is not a pollutant, it is a colourless, odourless and harmless gas at normal atmospheric temperatures and pressures. CO2 is at best, or worst (depending on your viewpoint) an insignificant “greenhouse gas” which follows Henry’s Law. CO2 is also a plant food, which is combined with water in the process called photosynthesis, in green leaves, to produce glucose.
        And recent research (Weiss) shows just two solar cycles explain all recent (last 10,000 years) closely. The IPCC models do not.

        David B”

        And the third, published today (Thursday):
        ” Can we please steer the non-believers of climate change towards the edge of the world so they can fall off. – Margie Christowski, Roseville ”

        Unfortunately the SMH is considered a quality newspaper by many in this state.
        Cheers,
        Dave B

        110

    • #
      PeterS

      It’s not just one reason but many really; indifference, ignorance, anti-conservatism, stubbornness, greed, stupidity, etc.. It’s actually a perfect storm for Australia. Our only hope now is for voters to wake up just in time and block either major party from forming government in their own right to send a powerful message that enough is enough. Time will tell if that’s the case, or we are destined to learn the hard way via a quick crash and burn under ALP+Greens or a slower one under the imploding LNP.

      150

      • #
        el gordo

        Peter what you are advocating is a multiparty system similar to Israel, Italy and Mexico, to name a few. There is a lot more haggling but they seem to operate okay.

        22

        • #
          PeterS

          Yes I understand that’s the case in many nations and it’s far from ideal. However, it’s better than what we have at the moment, which is one major party made up of the ALP (left) and Greens (extreme left) and the other major party being the LNP (dogs breakfast) both happy at increasing our dependence on renewables at the expense of coal fired power, while virtually everyone else is busy building coal and/or nuclear power plants as and when required. The current nexus has to be broken if we are to have any real hope of avoiding a crash and burn. If voters of Australia prefer a form of oligarchy run by the left then so be it – keep voting for the majors. It makes little difference who is in power given the LNP is riddled with leftists while centre-right conservatives are treated like the enemy within their own party.

          20

    • #
      Geoff

      Follow the FREE money. Borrowed from super. Backed by the taxpayer. When it runs out more is borrowed. The ARENA, loaves and fishes shows. Not much has changed. I seem to recall the circus was upgraded to gladiatorial deaths. So more and far worse to come. When the money finally dries up, the music stops.

      What to do with all those solar panels and wind mills? Free power from free money owned by a state with no demand. We will be all to poor to pay, even when it is FREE!

      When will our government learn NOTHING is for FREE? Only when they are a lot smaller.

      90

      • #
        Greebo

        Everything is “free” when it’s not your money. Until, as you say, it runs out. But by then you have harbourside dachas and special green lanes on the road to be driven along while you sneer at those in the bread queues. I mean, it went so well the last time.

        110

    • #
      Bulldust

      As if on queue … here’s a trebling of WA’s renewable energy capacity:

      https://thewest.com.au/business/renewable-energy/state-poised-for-1b-green-power-blitz-ng-b881040993z

      Shame when you think of the reliable power that could have been installed for $1 billion.

      90

  • #
    Latus Dextro

    The ideal process, apparently, is to all get wrecked at the same speed.

    Yep, one for all, and all for one. The collective goes down together. No one was responsible.

    The irony is that the Rainbow of Division becomes sharper and clearer by the day. Globullism is failing by the day and as is so often the case, down-under lags the curve.

    Destitution and social collapse for the great unwashed, while the Green Blob of elite social pus that are the legislators, propagators, commentators and educators suddenly realise that their ideology is sounding more like idiotology by the day.

    The time for the Yellow Shirt dance in Australia and New Zealand is almost upon us.

    320

    • #
      Mal

      Who remembers “Animal Farm”?
      The power of propaganda.
      The green blob has infiltrated and used the media and in particular the ABC in Australia to push one line of argument
      The bulk of the public fell for it.
      Now the realisation of the consequences in regard to cost of living, growth and prosperity has been awakened in the general public, the turnaround has begun.
      However there are too many vested interests now riding this gravy train,
      The change In direction may result in social disruption including violent protests as occurring in Paris.
      How ironic it would be if the mass opposition to the Parasites Climate Agreement originated in Paris.

      440

  • #
    Lance

    The true avalanche that ought be considered is that of a cascading grid collapse. AU is swiftly approaching that.
    Once the unreliable generation portion of the grid (non dispatchable, non synchronous, generation) reaches 50%, all it takes is a windless or cloudy day, or an unexpectedly warm evening, and the thermal plants won’t be able to handle the load. Or, one of the thermal plants is taken off line for maintenance and the winds slacken. Same outcome.

    Once the mains voltage begins to drop, the transformer taps are maxed out, and the load peaks, all it takes is a smidgeon of system imbalance and the grid safeties will engage and start dropping substations or radially fed loads like popcorn.

    A few days of blackout will provide for interesting times. It takes more power to restart the grid than it does to keep it stable at peak. Every motor/inductive load that remains connected requires 6 times its running power to restart it. Where’s that power coming from, eh?

    Somewhere around 40% to 45% or so of unreliables will be the tipping point for grid stability. All rational bets favor grid collapse shortly thereafter.

    The ensuing chaos ought to be a great teacher. Reality always has the last laugh.

    460

    • #
      Another Ian

      One might even refer to an “energy epidemic” and all man made and spread. Electrical syphilis even?”

      Euphoric infection then symptoms that develop slowly

      https://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases-conditions/syphilis/symptoms-causes/syc-20351756

      120

      • #
        Another Ian

        I guess that is the fate of most government “enthusiasms”

        I won’t attempt to try and sell you that they were “government wisdoms”

        10

    • #
      DaveR

      Great comment Lance on the coming Armageddon. Although some engineering commentators are suggesting the tipping point is below 40% renewables because by then voltage/frequency instability is already doing significant damage to attached electrical equipment and machinery.

      200

    • #
      Hivemind

      I agree with your main point, but just remember that when SA had the “black system” event two years ago, it was actually the coal fired plant that got blamed by the media.

      80

    • #
      theRealUniverse

      I can see ghost green infrastructure around in about 20 years, rotting in the new snow from the new LIA.

      90

      • #
        el gordo

        It maybe sooner than 20 years.

        ‘Widespread decrease in surface winds is found over the Northern Hemisphere. Wind energy resources are in rapid decline in many places. Study finds atmospheric stilling is a widespread and potentially global phenomenon.’ wuwt

        50

        • #
          Bobl

          Let me say something about this, windmills extract energy from moving air, the moving air is driven partly by gravity and mostly by temperature differences driven by the sun, but solar energy is fixed. Wind is also resonant – like waves. So when you calm the wind with windmills you change the climate by creating energy and detuning (dampening) the resonances which is going to affect surface wind.

          Obviously this affects climate

          20

  • #
    Lance

    It might be prudent that the AEMO be required to post an updated “Black Start” plan prior to approving additional unreliable generation. Each and every time additional blocks of significant wind/solar generation is considered for generation or prior to closing any thermal plant.

    Every Green thinking person “knows” this ought to be a simple matter.

    Every Electrical Power Engineer “absolutely knows” that it is anything but a simple matter.

    So, let the AEMO take responsibility for their future choices by demonstrating how the “avalanche” will be recovered from, in advance. Sufficient data already exists to perform the load flow analysis necessary to predict the conditions and likely grid locations for brown/black outs. Just run the load flow simulation at peak summer load and take one or two thermal plants out of service. Then see what happens. A simulation is much less expensive than “smoke testing” the grid in real time.

    310

  • #
    Bodge it an scarpa

    Wish you would include actual proven average power delivery in brackets beside the fanciful nameplate claims of these renewable sources Jo ! Eg 4300mw (1290mw)Wind (860mw) Solar. The Climate Change sheep out here believe that these renewable plants actually deliver their claimed nameplate figures all the time.

    240

    • #
      RobK

      But the claim in brackets is a meaningless annnual average projection. You can only guess how much wind and sun next year has, they are not the same every year.

      161

      • #
        Bodge it an scarpa

        A lot less meaningless than nameplate capacity, RobK

        140

        • #
          yarpos

          exactly, and over time for specific regions they are accurate to within a useful order of accuracy. The perfect shouldnt get in the way of the good.

          90

          • #
            John in Oz

            What is good about an average generation figure when it is unknown WHEN that power will be available.

            Are you happy sitting in a traffic jam for hours because you know that your annual average speed is ‘good’?

            61

            • #
              yarpos

              yes everyone understands intermittency, but you need some measure to have a “conversation” as people like to say these days. GWhrs produced over a year (or other period) is as reasonable a comparison. Intermittency is just another factor you can add in, however in general terms they get to dump all their power into the grid and others have to adjust, including when it equals zero.

              Dont get the car analogy.

              40

            • #
              Bobl

              Yes even capacity factor doesn’t tell the story, I’d use 99.5% reliably delivered energy given available storage capability. That is around 3% of nameplate.

              Unlike fossil power you can’t hedge failures by adding redundancy because there is an unmanageable common failure mode a bit like an out of fuel failure that affects all units simultaneously.

              Coal plants can fix this by having multiple (redundant) fuel suppliers there is only one wind supplier.

              10

    • #
      Lance

      Right you are, Bodge. Capacity factors matter.

      As you imply, it is 30% for wind and 20% for solar On Average.

      That said, the Capacity factor of solar is functionally a sine wave ranging from Zero at sunrise to Zero at sunset and peaks at 1 at solar noon. Except for random cloudcover.

      The Capacity Factor of Wind is 0.30 on Average. But, on a windless day, it is Zero.

      The Load is whatever happens to be connected to the Grid.
      The Load has no idea that the Wind slackened or if it is day or night.

      Once thermal generation falls somewhere below 65% of the previous day’s peak Load, chaos can be guaranteed with a brief glance at the following day’s temperature profile or seasonal wind profile. And, unpredictable things do actually happen.

      Were I in Oz, I’d be investing in my own generator and a drum or two of fuel, and wisely betting predictable odds at the local bookmaker as to when the blackouts will occur. Good fun might be had. But then again, perhaps not, as rioting hordes of angry people are somewhat less than pleasant.

      300

      • #
        AndyG55

        As I mentioned the other day, we need a “Reliability Factor”

        Defined as the percentage of nameplate that a source CAN BE RELIED UPON to produce 90% of the time.

        Most coal and gas power stations can, if required, sit on above 90% of nameplate 24/7, and often do.

        Data from wind power in Germany shows the wind RF to be about 4-5%

        Solar is of course ZERO !

        243

        • #
          RickWill

          Yes – it is reliability of supply that counts. We know Adelaide and Melbourne will be hot today. Solar will be near nill at 6pm when the evening demand picks up. Wind will likely be low. Electricity price in SA is forecast to reach $1750/MWh.

          Capacity factors are meaningless numbers. The more intermittent power that is connected the more the capacity factors become constrained by additional generation. There is no diversity fairy. When the wind blows in one place it tends to blow in other places and when it is not blowing in one place it is not blowing in other places. There is no solar at any night across Australia and many days when the whole country is covered by cloud.

          If average demand in the rid is 26GW then the 30% capacity factor typical of wind would suggest that a mere 87GW of wind capacity would meet the average demand. However there will be times when all that wind will produce near nothing an other times when it could be producing near 87GW but is demand constrained to say 18GW or much lower if the rooftop solar is cranking.

          Wind generator proponents in SA would be looking closely at how the rooftop take-up is eating into their demand. The actual large scale demand in SA was down to 340MW last Sunday. Rooftop solar was supplying 800MW. Within a couple of years there will be times when there is no demand for grid scale generators. The only requirement will be to have some synchronous generators spinning without load to provide frequency control.

          In a world where the RET exists, anyone able to install rooftop solar takes demand off the grid scale intermittents and that lowers the price of electricity for the consumers because the retailers pay less for rooftop solar with its RET credits than they pay for wholesale power plus the LGCs that are required with it.

          100

          • #
            Chad

            Wind generation in SA.. Currently 2+ GW…is already constrained by the AEMO to a MAX of 1.3GW total from all wind farms, to ensure there is enough “spinning reserve” (thermal gas generators) available ready to stabilise the grid variations
            This should give any future investors in wind farms for SA, And even existing owners….cause to rethink the commercial viability of their investments.

            80

          • #
            yarpos

            technically correct but sell and explain that to the masses. All they hear are terms like GW they dont comprehend and enough power for x thousand houses or to light Tasmania (which was a good one)

            I dont really see a way out other than grid failure making things more obvious. The people dont understand, the pollies are only interested in virtue signalling and the “expert” advice is coming from bureaucrats not engineers. If enough band aids can be applied to contain outages to small areas then that can be explained away with spind and look squirrel! stuff and the can gets kicked down the road.

            20

        • #
          John in Oz

          the percentage of nameplate that a source CAN BE RELIED UPON to produce 90% of the time

          is 0.00000% for both wind and solar.

          No-one can guarantee that the wind will blow or the sun will shine (on a solar panel) at any particular time.

          80

          • #

            Now c’mon John. That’s so unfair. There will be some number with a few less zeroes (and I want to know what it was).

            Anyone? What’s the lowest % on the worst day (for solar and wind) in the last three years?

            And with the caveat that I’m not interested in “90% of the time”. We want electricity 99.9% of the time. Perhaps we need the second worst day in the last three years.

            52

          • #
            AndyG55

            Statistically, Wind in Germany gives a minimum 4 and 5% of nameplate, 90% of the time.

            That is what I was looking at.

            https://i.postimg.cc/K8ZBtqK7/German_Windpower.png

            I totally agree with all other comments by you and Jo.

            They are both is manifestly and totally UNRELIABLE.

            63

      • #
        sophocles

        Lance says:

        rioting hordes of angry people are somewhat less than pleasant.

        … the tar and feathers can be removed.

        But the pitch forks …

        160

      • #
        Tom R Hammer

        Oh the angry hordes will only be active for a few days. One of the biggest users of grid electricity is water treatment and distribution.

        60

      • #
        Tom R Hammer

        Oh the angry hordes will only be active for a few days. One of the biggest users of grid electricity is water treatment and distribution.

        40

      • #
        Analitik

        Were I in Oz, I’d be investing in my own generator and a drum or two of fuel, and wisely betting predictable odds at the local bookmaker as to when the blackouts will occur

        I tested my generator yesterday during a scheduled outage and it powered my household for more than 9 hours on the 5 litres of fuel I filled it with. Based on that, I may need another jerry can to supplement my existing one but I’m feeling reasonably prepared.

        As for the bookie, not my sort of thing but I have been warning neighbours and family members that they should expect at least one major blackout down here in Vic this summer (I’m thinking up to 3 for South Australia if large scale load shedding is included as a blackout)

        50

    • #
      Dennis

      The truth is that most Australians do not even understand what nameplate means.

      They also seem to think that coal produces electricity and that steam is a pollutant.

      160

  • #
    OriginalSteve

    Maybe when all we have are mcjobs, we can ask if you want chips with your meal….

    71

  • #

    Batteries, wind-turbines, solar panels. (Can’t add in the wave gen because it sank.) It’s interesting that these are all clunky old technologies whose narrow limitations have been known for yonks.

    The question we should ask is whether Our Green Betters would consent to a technology which was new and effective. Old and ineffective seem to be their primary conditions for implementing. Expensive, import-dependent and wasteful are the secondary conditions. The third set of conditions is that these limited technologies should not be used within their limits to meet the needs of remote communities and regions without grid access (they can go jump) but that diffuse, intermittent generation should be attached to the functioning coal-powered grid where its main contribution is making a mess.

    So why?

    The answer is pretty obvious to me. The word “globalism” comes to mind. As do the words “blind malevolence”. Globalists would rather rule in hell than serve in heaven. As for serving on earth…Are we kidding?

    290

    • #
      GD

      “blind malevolence”

      That phrase brings to mind the recently elected second term Premier of Victoria Daniel Andrews. During his first term, he outlawed fracking, banned other forms of gas exploration and forced the closure of the Hazelwood power station. Subsequently, his government has now approved the building of more wind farms and the subsidising of solar panels, while at the same time purchasing multiple diesel generators.

      I’d call it ‘green malevolence’, meaning that whatever we have to do to get rid of coal-fired power, we will, even if it means reverting to dirty diesel generators.

      Malevolence indeed.

      280

      • #
        Kinky Keith

        From the point of view of Victorians, their politicians are delivering on their election promises.

        From the other side of the fence there is a built in requirement in our governance that “best practice” will be followed and where that understanding is bypassed there should be consequences.

        At the moment, Victorian voters have achieved the following;

        1. Demolition of a significant state asset.
        2. Increased electricity prices.
        3. Items 1 & 2 have made the operation of heavy industry near
        impossible and even commercial offices and corner stores find power accounts a significant concern. High rise properties will become/are unsafe to use when elevators/lifts become “intermittent”. Being trapped in a lift for a few minutes is disturbing; an hour or two will be dangerous.
        4. If Victoria was an independent power source, lessons may be learnt quickly but the connectedness that allows immediate social security benefits for the looming unemployed, the emergency back-up available from Tas, the Renewable Subsidies/Living Allowance paid by other states, might see the penny drop too far off in the future to have Mr Andrews held to account. He’ll get his pension and a nice portrait hung in Parliament.

        KK

        151

        • #
          Greebo

          From the point of view of Victorians, their politicians are delivering on their election promises.

          Yes indeed. Politicians from BOTH sides have achieved this, as Guy promised nothing at all, to his eternal shame.

          He’ll get his pension and a nice portrait hung in Parliament.

          Of the two, i’d suggest only his pension will be nice.

          40

          • #
            OriginalSteve

            A portrait of Dangerous Dan?

            You should hear what my wealthy great aunt thinks of Glorious Comrade…..

            30

            • #
              Greebo

              Here’s one for you, on 30/07/2018 my mother turned 100. I applied through the appropriate channels, and she duly received her letter from the GG, and one from HM. She also received one from our then PM. She told me ” you can send that back. Awful man”. She cast her first vote for Bob Menzies in 1939, and never strayed from what would become the LP until 2016.

              And yes, she’s still here.

              60

      • #
        Kinky Keith

        A little nice sarcasm there.

        20

      • #
        Another Ian

        Re the gas situation – via a contact around the oil industry

        “The Coal Bed Methane show is about to implode. Promised gas is not coming.”

        10

    • #
      sophocles

      It’s interesting that these are all clunky old technologies whose narrow limitations have been known for yonks.

      It’s also interesting because it shows the limitations of the ignorance of the Greens. That’s all they know about …
      Anything else is over their heads.

      It’s the same with nuclear. Mention that and you get shrieks of outrage and a full list of all the known faults, flaws and dangers of the [obsolete] high pressure water cooled uranium powered breeder reactors whose design was set down in the late 1940s and early 1950s. It hasn’t changed from then. To them, that is nuclear, and it’s dangerous. That old clunky technology can be added to the list.

      I’m told to `go look at the devastation at Chernobyl.’ Yes, well, they’re right up to date, thirty years ago … the animal and plant life at Chernobyl is thriving.

      I agree with them: obsolete technology is often that way.

      But explaining Liquid Fuel Thorium Reactors is a waste of time. They can’t get their heads around:
      - thermal regulation, no meltdown
      - no fuel rods needing re-processing
      - no need for burying waste—there doesn’t need to be any.
      - no weapons-grade material

      Poor things. They’re also almost terminally afraid of `radiation‘ … there’s all the hundreds of deaths from the nuclear accidents. So I don’t tell them about the (mostly electromagnetic) radiation from the sun.
      Three Mile Island: none.
      Chernobyl: 39 (5 in a helicopter crash, 14 from other accidents around the site and 20 brave volunteers who went inside the building to release coolant water threatening to escape from containment.)
      Fukushima: 1 ( a lung cancer victim in 2017 who was acknowledged by the Japanese Govt as a victim of Fukushima.)
      That’s hundreds?. You’re in more danger of cancer from GCR (Galactic Cosmic Ray) exposure right now from flying. They’re at their highest as the Solar Cycle heads to minimum since the start of the Space Age.

      But that’s what we’re dealing with. :-(

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      • #
        Greebo

        What we are dealing with is more than 40 years of indoctrination and misinformation, while all they need is more detergent for the brainwashing machine.

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      • #
        theRealUniverse

        Totally agreed about Thorium and the rest. 40 years of faux science pushed in populist text books and school books, no reference to actual real results.
        But, I think Fukushima will bite the Japanese in the bum in the future, TEP mismanaged the whole thing from start, at least the Soviets buried the thing in concrete after it went up, at much risk to the workers involved.

        10

  • #
    John F. Hultquist

    There are lots of ads, such as for burgers and chips:
    BUY 1, GET 1 FREE

    The truth is, you pay for 2 and get two.
    97% of folks understand.

    With electrical grids you pay for 2 and get 1.
    97% of folks do not understand this, yet.

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    • #
      RickWill

      With electrical grids you pay for 2 and get 1.
      97% of folks do not understand this, yet.

      It would not be so bad if this were true. Reality is a much much worse. An optimised system for intermittent wind generation will have a capacity factor of 12% so you need to buy 8 times the average demand for the generators. They all have to be connected to the grid. That means roughly three times the transmission and distribution. You then need to buy storage that costs as much as the generators. The overall cost is about 20 times what it is for coal plant. The working life of the intermittent generating assets ranges from maybe 15 years for batteries, 20 years for wind generators, 25 years for solar panels and up to maybe 100 years for hydro storage and generation. These compare with about 25 years for gas generators and 50 years for coal generators. Of course you do not need to keep buying coal or gas.

      Who knows when reality will strike. In Germany, replacement of 20yo wind turbines is causing some reflection. Reduced subsidies mean new turbines have a more difficult hurdle.

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  • #
    Mark M

    And with Adelaide in for a hot day, further evidence that unreliable renewable power can not prevent global warming.

    https://www.willyweather.com.au/sa/adelaide/adelaide.html

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  • #
    Rupert Ashford

    So Perry refers to “CHEAP but intermittent renewables”. What on earth happened to my power bills over the last 10 years then? Shouldn’t they have gone down then?

    190

    • #
      MatrixTransform

      Oh yr power bill has gone down … in MJ,
      just not down in $/MJ(plus a few extra supply charges)

      We need a battery. A big vast chemical battery.
      A big vast chemical battery based on maybe hydrocarbons.
      We could store it underground in shale deposits and such

      51

      • #
        Kinky Keith

        Are you implying that Coal is the biggest battery of them all.

        20

      • #
        AndyG55

        Another important facet should be that we can control the release of its energy.

        The amount of energy they say they are going to try to store in these “climate batteries” leaves me wondering just how safe they could be.

        ka– BOOOMM ! seems a likely outcome at some stage.

        32

        • #
          OriginalSteve

          I’d be more worried about the HF gas they give off when they burn….assuming the rotten things didnt kill you outright with an explosion, the resulting fire and HF gas might finish the job….

          If you mixed HF gas and water from a firehose, would you wind up with HF acid? I’m not a chemistry dude, so….

          20

  • #
    TdeF

    As I have written so many times, the questions are why and how?

    Windmills are not in the State budget. They are not in the Federal budget. No foreign superpower is paying for them, no cartel of foreign benign investors graciously fixing our previously adequate system. No.

    We are paying for these windmills, without our knowledge or agreement or legally. Billions a year. Even if they make no sense at all and no one cares. As for economic sense, they cost nothing to the ‘investors’ and then to make matters worse, these uneconomic monsters are being subsidized to operate.

    Look at the accounts of Hepburn Wind. Massively profitable and totally paid by us but owned by a Green group who are paid the world’s highest rates for electricity no one needs or wants. Still a single free windmill cannot be run at a profit and the owners are then then given another $800,000 cash a year just to exist.

    The mechanism is the issuance by law and compulsory purchase of LGCs. Laughable Gobsmacking Great Carbon Tax credits just for generating power even if it is not sold. Most of $1Million cash per windmill per year just to exist, on top of what they are paid for the electricity if sold.

    The same with lunchtime solar panels. In the end the owners pay nothing and still get cash coming in for electricity no one wants or needs, dormitory suburbs where the people with solar panels are being paid cash by the people who do not have them, for electricity which is not wanted, needed or used. THe electricity distribution system from high voltage to low voltage does not work backwards any more than the water distribution system pushes water back up hill from rain gutters. High voltage industrial areas are not being fed by low voltage domestic supplies. When no one is home in a suburb, the payment for ‘free’ lunchtime power is insane.

    But wait. There’s more. Soon we will have to pay for their batteries. The argument for doubling down on our wasted cash is that these systems are utterly useless and we should have known that.

    So while we rail against the sheer stupidity of covering our landscapes and oceans with giant windmills, just remember who is paying for all this insanity. Not the ‘government’. You are.

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    • #
      OriginalSteve

      The medical industry endorses cholesterol lowering despite no true correlation with cholesterol and heart disease. The infamous Framingham Heart Study was an exercise in data cherry picking. IMHO if you take it to its logical extension, it was an excuse to push people onto a vegie diet to protect the mythical “Gaia”, and finds bedfellows with the current destruction of the electrical grid to protect ” Gaia”… it all seems to be linked.

      The windmill thing is just a nice money maker, while trashing our grid – but is based on faulty science, just like the cholesterol nonsense….

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      • #
        TdeF

        I cannot agree. Nothing to do with science.

        Without any science at all, it is extremely obvious Cholesterol blocks arteries and is lethal. So you hardly need a statistical correlation. Ask a cardiac surgeon. Look at the CT calcium scans. You can see it. Plaque arterial blockage is in the extremely obvious, visible category. The statins work to reduce the build up. People used to die routinely around 65 from blockages and now with stents, bypasses and medication people are living in good health much longer. This is a real, worldwide and lethal problem being fixed. It always existed but people did not live much past the retirement age and many even then many could hardly walk up stairs. They just died. Nothing could be done for cure or prevention. Once again ‘Our’ ABC is culpable for getting many people to drop their medication by pushing pseudo medicine as fact, but who is surprised?

        In total contrast, Man made Global Warming is transparent rubbish. There is no problem, no evidence, no cure. Pseudo ‘Scientists’ are still drawing lines on graphs to convince people that the temperature is going up rapidly when they are currently having really problems proving temperature is actually going up at all. Snow storms in New York and bushfires in California. So it’s Climate Change causing both simultaneously. One explanation for everything. Cured by a river of cash.

        Who after thirty years believes their world is hotter, the seas higher? Just go to your favorite beach.

        A freezing day is just the weather but a boiling day is ‘climate change’. The seas are rising 8 stories any day now, 100 metres in a century. By the warnings of ‘our’ ABC they should already be 30 metres over our heads.

        22,771 people meeting in Poland now to decide how to get more of your money to fix a problem which does not exist, a problem which pays for their air flights, their limousines and their hotel rooms and their wages. These are people who have done nothing except make money from this. Point to one life saved. One life improved. No one can. It is the biggest scam in world history.

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        • #
          el gordo

          ‘By the warnings of ‘our’ ABC they should already be 30 metres over our heads.’

          There you have it, aunty has been pushing propaganda onto an ignorant electorate.

          ‘And in June, research published in Nature pointed to a tripling of the rate of melting of the Antarctic ice sheet over the last five years.

          ‘Now, new research published in Nature today has confirmed a similar trend is occurring in the Greenland ice sheet.

          ‘Researchers used ice cores to create a 350 year continuous analysis of the melting rate of ice in central west Greenland.’

          ABC
          ———-

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        • #
          GD

          It is the biggest scam in world history.

          I despair for Australia, and for mankind. The gradual brainwashing of the populace has convinced almost everyone to believe this scam. The media propagates it with almost daily scare campaigns of rising temperatures and sea levels.

          Unless you are aware of the alternative scientific view, your default position is that the planet is warming and mankind is causing it.

          The climate alamists teach this to their children, as we have seen recently in Australia and Norway, with teenage protests demanding action on this non-problem.

          I don’t have much hope for the next generation. Will they wake up to the idiocy being perpetrated on society, or will they lead us further headlong down the path to return civilisation to the stone age?

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          • #
            el gordo

            We can turn this around very quickly if Morrison builds three new coal fired power stations, the centre left media would be forced to debate climate change.

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          • #
            theRealUniverse

            They will learn the hard way. The earth IS getting colder, geophysical FACT. The snow cover IS increasing slowly each winter especially in the NH. Even now NZ is getting bombarded with excess cold and Tasmania I saw Hobart was a tropical 13C. What happens between +- 27deg of the equator isnt relevant. The ice creep starts from the poles. Builds up and increases the polar albedo therefore more IR is reflected.
            Posts on iceagenow

            Multiple records tumble in Iowa
            below-freezing-in-all-50-states
            Record snowfall in Alberta
            Record snowfall in Michigan’s Upper Peninsula
            Britain’s Excess Winter Deaths Soar
            Astrophysicist – Mini Ice Age is now accelerating – Important video (Piers Corbyn)
            These are warning signs.

            Meanwhile in LALA land
            The fools are preparing for a scorched earth, we will all die from heatwaves..

            But this will happen – unable to power the grid due to no solar, no sunshine when it snows, possible wind increase as storms arrive but the windmills will break anyway.

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          • #
            el gordo

            GD the klimatariat has put together a good yarn, so its up to us to come up with an alternative hypothesis.

            Greenland and Antartica are losing ice naturally, nothing unusual is happening. With the Arctic sea ice its the same story, the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation is the main driver and CO2 has no part to play.

            https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/2017GL076210

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        • #
          Hivemind

          The body uses cholesterol in the blood to block minor damage to the arteries. Too much cholesterol can cause fatty deposits to build up and cause heart disease. But that cholesterol doesn’t come from cholesterol in the diet. The body make it itself. The cause of too much cholesterol in the blood stream is from a lack of exercise.

          The “food wars” on cholesterol (then fat), salt and sugar in the diet are largely caused by bad science and a need for scientists to be relevant (read activists). Most of it should be taken with more than a little dose of salt.

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          • #
            OriginalSteve

            I notice eggs, once “very bad” due to cholesterol, are now on the “good” list….
            https://www.heartfoundation.org.au/healthy-eating/food-and-nutrition/protein-foods/eggs

            From my reading, one of the key predictors of likely heart disease, is stress.

            Cholesterol is recycled through the body, if your liver & gut function are poor, it could possibly leave excess cholesterol in the blood stream.

            https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2390860/

            If you followed drug company guidelines, approx 50% of all adults would be on cholesterol lowering drugs…..I doubt we have become so unhealthy 50% of every adult needs to be medicated. Life expactancy is way up, people generally have never been healthier.

            https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4513492/

            World J Cardiol. 2015 Jul 26; 7(7): 404–409.
            Published online 2015 Jul 26. doi: [10.4330/wjc.v7.i7.404]

            “The cholesterol hypothesis links cholesterol intake and blood levels to cardiovascular disease. Because cholesterol is considered a risk factor for atherosclerosis many believe that lowering cholesterol in the blood is the best way to prevent CHD. Ideally, risk factors should help us distinguish those who will develop a disease from those who will not. However, if one examines the original Framingham Heart Study data (as an example) it is clear that the cholesterol levels of those who developed CHD and those who did not overlap except when the total cholesterol level exceeded 380 mg/dL or was less than 150 mg/dL

            (Figure ​
            (Figure1).
            1).

            “Moreover, cholesterol may be associated with CHD but that does not prove causation. Despite the fact that high triglycerides and low HDL have long been associated with CHD, studies designed to raise HDL or lower triglycerides have failed to reduce CHD mortality.

            “Similarly, cholesterol should not automatically become a treatment target. It may be a leap of faith to assume that lowering cholesterol is the best way to prevent CHD.”

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            • #
              joseph

              Another thing that I came across was saying the plaque that was building up in the veins was mainly calcium that didn’t know where it was supposed to go because of a lack of vitamin K2. I notice that most calcium tablets now contain vitamin K2.

              30

        • #
          Peter C

          Without any science at all, it is extremely obvious Cholesterol blocks arteries and is lethal. So you hardly need a statistical correlation. Ask a cardiac surgeon. Look at the CT calcium scans. You can see it.

          Atheroma plaque is largely cholesterol, no doubt about that. And it would seem that accumulation of Cholesterol below the endothelium is an early stage of plaque. Calcium is different. Lots of calcium can be found in the walls of arteries without blockage or narrowing.

          But is it the primary problem and how did it get there? The whole metabolism and control mechanisms of Cholesterol are not understood at all as far as I can make out.

          I am happy to learn about it if anyone knows of good articles.

          40

        • #
          peter

          Totally disagree with TdeF on cholesterol.

          This fallacy arose from the fact that they found blockages with cholesterol in them. BUT the cholesterol didn’t “block” the arteries. Heart disease (from mostly lifestyle/diet and NOT power station emissions) causes lesions to occur in arteries. The body uses cholesterol to help fill/repair those arterial lesions, which can result in serious blockage, but cholesterol will flow through healthy arteries, for ever, without blocking them.

          Don’t ask surgeons anything that isn’t associated directly with the surgery they do. Statins reduce cholesterol levels, sure, but that doesn’t make you healthier. Studies have shown that people on statins do not live longer than those who are not. Also they produce many undesirable unhealthy side-effects. The drug companies in their research to prove effectiveness of statins were allowed to drop-out patients who reacted badly or had adverse effects when put on statins. As any researcher should know, this would distort your results towards a positive result that may not be there if the whole study population were included in the stats. They were allowed up to a 20% drop-out, early in the study, for this. That’s a huge culling of bad results.

          00

  • #
    yarpos

    ” Xavier Barbaro, Neoen’s head says the IEA is right. –“Renewables rush poses risks to reliability of energy supply: warns Neoen”

    I love this, yes this rush (that we were part of) is such a risk. You all slow down now while our snout remains firmly in the trough. Take as long as you like. Meanwhile over at renew they will somehow make this coal’s fault :-)

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    • #
      theRealUniverse

      Modified: Renewables rush poses risks to reliability of energy supply = Renewables rush poses risks to reliability of energy supply, full stop.

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    • #
      Graeme No.3

      As renewables depend on enough storage to pass themselves off as reliable, perhaps one of the trolls could explain why we are rushing into renewables 6 years before the largest (and probably cheapest) source of storage (Snowy 2) becomes available?

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  • #
    Robber

    AEMO grid demand in Australia averages about 24 GW, with summer peaks around 32 GW.
    To meet that demand we currently have about 34 GW of fossil generators (coal, gas and diesel), so allowing a 90% capacity factor that provides about 30 GW.
    Next in line is about 7 GW of hydro, generally ok except in major droughts, say 5 GW available.
    Then there’s wind, nameplate capacity 5.4 GW, delivering 1.6 GW on average, and sometimes just when you need it, zero.
    And finally there is solar, large scale 2 GW, small scale solar about 8 GW, and growing rapidly, but on average delivering 2 GW, and zero when you need it to meet peak evening demand.
    So we currently have sufficient reliable fossil/hydro capacity available to just meet peak summer demand.
    But the average utilisation of those reliable generators is being reduced as more intermittent generators (wind/solar) get priority access. More capital investment seeking a return, ergo higher electricity prices.
    And when does the crash occur?
    AGL plans to shut the 2 GW Liddell coal station in 2022 so is progressively reducing its reliability by doing minimal maintenance. Other fossil generators with lower utilisation rates are relying on high wholesale prices to maintain cash flow to keep operating, but given the current and announced policies of even more intermittent wind/solar (average 40% of demand by 2025 in Vic, 50 % nationally by 2030), to deliver 10-12 GW on average, therefore 30+ GW at peak, zero sometimes) they will not make any major investments to upgrade, so there will be a gradual deterioration in their reliability.
    Now we are being told we must face “demand management”, turning industry and households off to reduce those peak demands.
    The avalanche is approaching, and the rumbles can be heard.

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    • #
      MatrixTransform

      Wont be long before it is mandated.

      AS/NZS 4755.3.1:2014 Demand response … – SAI Global Store

      DRED stands for ‘Demand Response Enabling Device’.

      DRED provides a method by which a controlling authority, most likely a power supply company, can limit the amount of power that an air conditioner can consume in comparison to its nominal full load power consumption. The aim is to reduce overall power consumption to the supply network at critical peak load times. A ripple is passed down the power supply which triggers a response. Not dissimilar to what some power companies do when controlling peak demand for electric water heaters in New Zealand.

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    • #
      Lance

      If your numbers are correct, and in reasonable terms they are, then when thermal generation capacity falls below 27 GW, a grid collapse becomes likely within a 6 month window. Take even one thermal plant off line after that and it is nearly a certainty.

      So, you’ve got 10% slack in that “rubber band” to stretch things with.

      When the interconnector tripped because of broken pylons during a rather “gusty” bit of wind, the ramping rate was some 200 MW/hr. That ramping rate, both up and down, seriously stressed the thermal plants. Add that to the puzzle.

      Just guessing here, but in the large, AU can afford about 3 GW of lost thermal generation and then the die is cast.
      Simply a matter of time and luck until the wind blows too much or too little, or the load peaks at the wrong time, or a bearing, winding or blade fails at a thermal plant, or there’s too much cloud cover, or a warm or cold evening occurs. Any combination of these things will trip the grid. Goodbye Civilization. Hello Anarchy.

      I should like to wonder what the Insurance companies are postulating for losses at that point. Watch the reinsurance rates to see how the risk is valued. When those rates begin to climb, it is time to find a hole and crawl in it.

      They watch these things. That’s the canary to fixate upon.
      Property and casualty losses in a protracted blackout are going to be surprisingly large.

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      • #
        Analitik

        The biggest issue has been that that the grid operators have been too competent in integrating renewables covering up the inadequacies of intermittent renewables under normal grid conditions. This lulls the masses into thinking all is swell with “replacing” thermal generation with renewables (witness the schoolkids who attended the protest against coal).

        Some mass load shedding events would be instructive in how our grid is being undermined but, so far, the grid operators have been able to intervene successfully except when transmission failure has given the media and greenwash an excuse as to why the renewables weren’t to blame. It will take a catastrophic generation shortfall event to show the masses what a lie they have been sold by the politicians, media and institutions.

        I still hold hope that the catastrophe takes place in South Australia, only because it will minimise the number of people affected vs another grid zone. Then again, they did lead the way with this rubbish which emboldened the watermelons across the rest of the nation…

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  • #
    Neville

    While OZ embraces this lunacy the front runner Germany today only generates 3.5% from GEO + S&Wind and is now trying to fix its grid by expanding its brown coal mines.
    It’s wasted 100s of bns Euros over the last 20 years on clueless S&W for zip return and now have energy poverty because of extreme power prices and they only emit 2.1% of the worl;d’s emissions.
    How insane is that> Oh and the USA has a much smaller % of energy generated by coal than this front running German donkey machine.
    The USA only generates just 17.1% of TOTAL energy from coal while Germany generates 25.5% and China 66.7%. All IEA data I have linked to before. One is lauded by the moronic MSM and the other is hated. Unbelievable but true.
    OH and the hated one has pulled out of the Paris COP 21 fra-d and BS agreement.
    So do simple KINDY sums count for anything anymore, apparently not?

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  • #
    Neville

    BTW here is that DEC 2015 interview where the father of their CAGW lunacy called Paris COP 21 just BS and fra-d.
    Thanks Dr Hansen for telling us the truth.

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/dec/12/james-hansen-climate-change-paris-talks-fraud

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    • #
      theRealUniverse

      “The Nasa scientists, who had been analyzing changes in the Earth’s climate since the 1970s, told a congressional committee that something called the “greenhouse effect” where heat-trapped gases are released into the atmosphere was causing global warming with a 99% certainty.”

      Thermodynamics 101 FAIL!!! Heat only transfers from HOT to COLD not the reverse. The SB equation is for FLUX NOT heat! Biggest mistakes from the RGHE.

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  • #
    Greebo

    Would you like to buy a second hand car that works two days a week (but you can never predict which day)?

    I’ve got a Land Rover that’s a bit like that…

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  • #
    Neville

    I linked to Dr Hansen’s interview calling Paris a f r a – d and BS and I’m now in moderation again. These are Hansen’s claims not mine.

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  • #
    beowulf

    O/T but forgive me.

    Oh dear, the Greenies are eating their own: Occasional Cortex finally says something useful; attacks Green golden boy Elon Musk over public funding for Tesla. She wants a return on public investment: there’s a novel idea.
    https://wattsupwiththat.com/2018/12/05/ocasio-cortez-attacks-public-funding-for-teslas-green-technology/

    Meanwhile Bernie Sanders, outspoken climate change promoter/hypocrite, clocked up $300K on (CO2-free) private jet travel in 9 days. OOPS. Do as I say … etc
    https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2018/12/05/climate-hypocrite-sanders-spent-300k-on-private-jets-in-one-month/

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  • #
    Neville

    Bolt’s incredible talk with their ABC’s science guru???? Robyn Williams is looking even more dodgy with passing of every year.
    Robyn thought that it was possible that we could have 100 metres of SL rise by 2100, but Sydney is STILL about 0.65mm year and Brisbane even less. OH and 0.65mm/year is about 2.6 inches per CENTURY. Robyn’s wild claims have some catching up to do. In fact way more than 1,000mm a year and still wouldn’t make it by 2100.
    OH and the NH’s AMO will soon enter the cool phase and the Antarctic peninsula has shown no warming now since 1998. See BAS Turner et al
    2016 study.

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  • #
    Tom R Hammer

    The goal is worldwide carbon taxes and centralized administration. Renewables are just a step on the way. Everyone with any sense (ie. outside the Labor and Liberal parties and their cabal of voters) is suspicious that this has been the strategy all along.

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    • #
      theRealUniverse

      ‘The goal is worldwide carbon taxes…’ and total elimination of fossil/hydrocarbon fuels (the only fossil fuel is coal BTW).
      This will result in destruction of the industrial society as we know it. I think it is the dastardly plan to eliminate us starting with the vulnerable.

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      • #
        OriginalSteve

        “This will result in destruction of the industrial society as we know it.”

        Correct. This has been the ultimate aim of the occult New Age “Gaia” woshippers from the off.

        We are just “uesless eaters” to be ultimately culled, to protect thier mythical “Gaia”.

        Its also worth pointing out we didnt start this stoush…..

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    • #
      Tom R Hammer

      Oh, I don’t think the goal is the destruction of industrialized society at all. I think the goal is the centralized control over industrialized society through carbon taxes. CO2 might not be a control knob on climate, but carbon taxes will be the control knob on the global economy.
      One country getting a little too much power? Raise the carbon taxes there and lower it for other countries.
      I’m sure the globalists see the failure of communism in the USSR and other crash test nations as just for the fact that it wasn’t implemented on a large enough scale.

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  • #
    Neville

    This Lomborg video tells us the truth about all the usual nonsense from the CAGW extremists.
    It only only takes a few minutes but covers a lot of their icons, although he has since updated S&W energy numbers since this video was made. S&W are now about 0.8% of the world’s TOTAL energy generation. EU’s IEA data of course.
    Deaths from extreme weather events have plummeted 97% since early 20th century. We must be doing something right,but I was once roundly abused by a crowd when i dared to state these facts. Seems they just love their CAGW BS and fra-d.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3PWtaackIJU

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    • #
      el gordo

      ‘Deaths from extreme weather events have plummeted 97% since early 20th century.’

      There is that number again, amazing how it keeps popping up.

      Neville I have a problem with lukewarmers, tell Bjorn that CO2 does not cause global warming.

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      • #
        theRealUniverse

        The lukewarmers are like do gooders they try hard, I support their effort to fight the climate scam BUT they persist in giving the klimatariat room to move on CO2, which shoots themselves in the foot. They should just learn REAL thermo.

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      • #

        Moderates, lukewarmers, climate mensheviks…

        None of them are to be trusted or tolerated. The bolshie alarmists bring the pot to the boil then the likes of Lomborg and Curry turn it down to a polite simmer.

        Nope. Chuck out the whole nasty stew.

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      • #
        Andrew McRae

        There is that number again, amazing how it keeps popping up.

        More amazing than Jo has appreciated.

        Jo, how could you let this one slip by…

        One estimates in the next 22 years Australia will spend $79b on infrastructure that doesn’t work much, and just $2b on old coal plants that do

        No… it couldn’t be…

        Surely not!??

        Let’s do the math..

        79 / (79 + 2) * 100% == 97.5%

        YES!! It’s another 97% consensus!
        :-D

        00

  • #
    PeterS

    One point being made in the video is the most optimistic assumption about how much of the world’s power is to be produced by renewables is around 2.2% by 2040, and if countries like China and India are to take on board renewables in a much bigger way to have at least some impact on climate (LOL) we need to put more investment into research to make renewables much cheaper (LOL squared). In other words the video is partly about supporting renewables by making it cheaper than fossil fuel and nuclear. The elephant in the room is not even seen – energy storage. Odd how so many are trying to do away with fossil fuel and nuclear without using their brains to see if the solution is solar and wind then we either need to invent a battery storage system that is far more advanced to what we have today (and is probably decades away) or else we need to create a second sun so we always have light. Good luck on either.

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    • #
      Rosco

      Haven’t you seen the models for the “greenhouse effect ?

      https://atmos.washington.edu/2002Q4/211/notes_greenhouse.html

      “We need to multiply the incoming solar energy by the factor 1/4–the ratio of the area of the earth’s disk (pi R2) to the Earth’s surface area (4 pi R2)– …”

      “You can think of this as spreading out the incident solar radiation uniformly over the earth’s surface (the night side of the earth as well as the day side)”

      So they’ve already solved the sunlight 24 hours a day – now just need the fairy dust to solve the batteries ?

      How can people believe junk science like this ??

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      • #
        theRealUniverse

        Theres another total mistake used by the RGHE people. The earth IS NOT FLAT, it is spherical and it ROTATES! Look at all the misleading ‘radiation budget diagrams’ ALL are with a non rotating FLAT earth! Also see my comment 15.1. AND there are many false assumptions.

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      • #
        AndyG55

        ““You can think of this as spreading out the incident solar radiation uniformly over the earth’s surface (the night side of the earth as well as the day side)””

        Well NO, you cannot.

        Heating effect is not linear, by any means.

        The whole averaging peak over the whole surface is total nonsense.

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  • #
    Rosco

    Unfortunately this train wreck is likely to be so severe whoever offers to fix it with coal fired power will win a landslide and the perpetrators will spend a long cold time in the political wilderness.

    As our politics stand at present both parties seem to be fighting for the title of perpetrator.

    The only things that will stop the insanity will be a full blown ice age or the shutting down of our electricity dependent societies and neither of those will be “pretty”.

    As Robert from IceAgeNow.info says : – If Earth enters a mini ice age there’ll be fighting in the streets for food long before the glaciers advance due to reduced cold induced crop failures. Then there’s the ideology of growing food for biofuels or ethanol.

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      OriginalSteve

      True. Starvation could be a big problem.

      Interesting how they built that seed vault in the artic circle……

      We will have both heating and food as being an issue. The current tropics will become a sought after location – the NT will become popular……crocs could be hunted to extinction for food. If anyone can work out how to make cane toads into usable human food, I think we’d be pretty right…

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    robert rosicka

    Ausnet are telling me my supply has become more reliable over the years but wants me to keep my phone charged and learn how to open my garage door just in case , how thoughtful.

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    Neville

    Here’s Dr Curry on the Bolt report and the second video covers the wild claims from the Attenborough donkey and others like Turnbull who think that sceptics deny that the climate changes.
    Total nonsense but these fools get a free kick from the MSM every time.

    https://www.heraldsun.com.au/blogs/andrew-bolt/top-climate-scientist-man-cant-do-much-to-change-climate/news-story/bb35a20b8e349334dfcd8ff5191a7d81

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    pat

    4 Dec: ClimateChangeNews: Britain backs strong rules to bring the Paris Agreement to life
    by Claire Perry, UK minister for energy and clean growth
    With our solid track record, we know we are best placed to promote clean growth opportunities of to our international friends and partners…
    During our first-ever Green GB Week, more than 30 UK-based businesses committed significant action to tackle climate change, from investing hundreds of millions in new solar panels to converting fleets of trucks to biofuels. Our story is compelling and one we must share…

    Over the two weeks of Cop24, there will be almost 60 events at the UK Pavilion to promote our expertise in clean growth technologies and climate solutions. UK businesses will be showcasing how they are grasping the economic opportunities of clean growth with both hands…

    But it’s not all about economics. There is a moral imperative too, as the effects of climate change already dominate our lives…

    That is why three years ago, the UK and other developed countries committed to mobilising $100 billion a year by 2020 to help these countries cope with the increasing risk of droughts and floods and provide access to clean energy. We know that every pound spent reducing CO2 today pays for itself between five and 20 times over in offsetting climate impacts.

    In Katowice, the UK Government will be committing £100 million to support up to 40 small-scale renewable projects in sub-Saharan Africa, leveraging private finance in clean energy to deliver thousands of people the renewable electricity they so badly need…

    Just last week we held the world’s first Carbon Capture Usage and Storage conference, bringing together business leaders and politicians to discuss how we can finance this potentially game-changing technology with a Government boost of £20m. And this month also sees the one-year anniversary of our modern Industrial Strategy which puts moving to a cleaner, greener economy at the centre of our post-Brexit blueprint for the economy…

    In fact, when I asked our independent advisers, the Committee on Climate Change for advice on setting a net zero target in response to the Special Report, we were the first major developed country to take such action…
    http://www.climatechangenews.com/2018/12/04/britain-backs-strong-rules-bring-paris-agreement-life/

    5 Dec: Bloomberg: Trump to Lift Key Barrier for New Coal Plants, Source Says
    By Jennifer A Dlouhy
    The Trump administration will propose scrapping an Obama-era mandate that new coal-fired power plants use carbon-capture technology, removing a major barrier to constructing the facilities, according to a person familiar with the plans…

    5 Dec: ClimateChangeNews: Japan bids for top climate finance job, citing $1.5bn contribution
    As the biggest donor to the Green Climate Fund, Japan said it had a ‘responsibility’ to ensure it is run well
    By Megan Darby
    Japan is making a play for one of the most politically critical jobs in international climate finance.
    The executive director vacancy at the Green Climate Fund has been openly advertised (LINK), with a 12 December deadline for applications. Japan’s foreign ministry took the unusual move this week of publicly nominating (LINK) an experienced diplomat, Kenichi Suganuma, to the role…

    In parallel, the board is set to appoint a “facilitator” for the replenishment process…
    The GCF reached the bottom of its $10.2bn start-up capital faster than expected, after Donald Trump reneged on $2bn of the US pledge and currency fluctuations hit the value of the remainder. It has allocated $4.6bn to projects in the developing world that cut carbon or build resilience to the impacts of climate change.

    Germany was the first to pledge new cash, doubling its contribution to €1.5 billion ($1.7bn). Australian prime minister Scott Morrison, on the other hand, has declared he will not “tip money” into the fund…
    Japan is reserving judgment until it sees a performance review, said Magosaki. “We have to secure the accountability of the secretariat. They will probably have to speak out a bit more about their achievements. We have not heard back quite enough for the justification of $1.5 billion yet.”…
    The moment of truth will come in the third quarter of 2019, when developed countries will be expected to put up money at a pledging summit.

    Meanwhile Russia is preparing to make its first donation, an adviser to the delegation told CHN…
    Now the country is finalising the legal arrangements to transfer ***“a few million” dollars to the fund in the next few days, said the adviser, who asked not to be named. That would give it a say in the discussions…
    http://www.climatechangenews.com/2018/12/05/japan-bids-top-climate-finance-job-citing-1-5bn-contribution/

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    Another Ian

    Looks like the northern hemisphere is off to an early start in the cooling stakes

    “Cooling Down The Land”

    https://wattsupwiththat.com/2018/12/05/cooling-down-the-land/

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    Another Ian

    O/T WINNING

    “French President Emmanuel Macron has scrapped a fuel tax rise amid fears of new violence, after weeks of nationwide protests and the worst rioting in Paris in decades.”

    http://www.smalldeadanimals.com/index.php/2018/12/05/showing-up-to-riot-6/

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      pat

      Another Ian -

      more concessions coming!

      5 Dec: France24: AFP: Macron calls for political unity in face of ‘Yellow Vest’ unrest
      The French government on Wednesday urged parties across the political divide to calm protests that have raged nationwide for more than two weeks, and signalled it was ready to make further concessions to avoid more violence.

      French President Emmanuel Macron appealed to rival political leaders as well as trade unions to help tamp down the anti-government anger that on Saturday led to some of the worst rioting in central Paris in decades, according to government spokesman Benjamin Griveaux.
      “The moment that we are living through is not about political opposition, it’s about the republic,” Griveaux said after a cabinet meeting.

      The head of the upper house of parliament, Gerard Larcher, also sounded the alarm about the insurrectional nature of the “yellow vest” protests which began on November 17.
      “The republic is under threat,” Larcher told France Inter radio. “I’m not seeking to be dramatic. I want everyone to understand their responsibilities.”…

      The 40-year-old centrist president (Macron) was heckled Tuesday as he visited a burned-out government building in central France, hours after a new opinion poll showed his approval rating at just 23 percent.
      He is yet to comment publicly since returning to France from a G20 summit in Argentina on Sunday morning…

      A frequent demand from the protesters, who are mostly from rural and small-town France, is a repeal of his move last year to cut a “fortune tax” previously levied on high-earners.
      Griveaux indicated it might be repealed, once an evaluation of its effects had been completed in 2019.
      “If something isn’t working, we’re not dumb, we’ll change it,” he told RTL radio…
      Adding to the image of a country in revolt, the main French farmers union said Wednesday that its members would hold demonstrations every day next week.
      Two truck driver unions have also called an indefinite sympathy strike from Sunday night, and students are blocking dozens of schools nationwide to denounce tougher university entrance requirements.
      Fuel shortages due to blockades remain a problem in areas of Brittany, Normandy and southeast regions of France.
      https://www.france24.com/en/20181205-french-president-macron-government-yellow-vest-call-parties-calm-protests-unity

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  • #
    Hanrahan

    I opened up hotcopper . com for the first time in ages and the same old names were still pushing the same old line.

    peteai
    3,043 Posts.
    01/12/18
    11:29
    Post #: 36715210
    Renewable generation installation has accelerated to such an extent it is on track to provide almost 80 per cent of the electricity market by 2030, according to research from consultancy Green Energy Markets.Key points:Rooftop solar installations are up 76pc on this time last yearBy end of the year rooftop solar capacity will exceed that of the closed Hazelwood power station. Renewable financing faces big challenges from the likely collapse of power prices GEM director Tristan Edis said the renewable energy industry has built itself up to such a significant scale that even 50 per cent by 2030, the renewables target being pursued by the Federal Labor Party, would involve a significant contraction in activity and employment in the industry.

    [my bold]

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-11-30/renewables-now-heading-for-80-per-cent-of-electricity-market/10567838

    It’s not as if Peteai has not been informed that 80% unreliables is not a good thing, we sceptics have been telling him for 10 years. He chooses to push the alarmist narrative though. Is the ABC serious when they say that the output from renewables will become so cheap that they will be unable to get finance. Weird!

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    theRealUniverse

    Attenborough’s speech
    I am totally disgusted at the total verbal C R A P uttered by someone of such prominence as David Attenborough at COP24.
    He said that we are in for a disaster of proportions that will WIPE out most of the species on earth!! WHAT!
    Species survived the ‘Quixalub Impactor’, The Decan eruptions and other events. Humans have been around for over a million years , therefore have survived, major glaciations, eruptions, and magnetic reversals, including the Younger Dryas. The total absurdity of his speech should be challenged..silence? Except in alternative media, and critics on this blog. Earth has been much HOTTER and COLDER than present ON RECORD Sir David! How do you answer that! OR who paid you?…

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    Antoine D'Arche

    We are so FUBAR’d. Nothing and no-one to date has slowed this crash down. I have supposedly very intelligent and educated friends and colleagues who still tell me that solar is the answer cause “the sun always turns up for work, every”. Those were the words. From SOMEONE LIVING IN MELBOURNE. He still won’t oblige me by doing the maths on power generation. Therefore advocating on blind faith and misplaced optimism. Aka religious fervor.
    God were doomed.

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    pat

    what a list!

    OpenClimateData: COP24 Side Events
    https://openclimatedata.github.io/cop-side-events/

    5 Dec: AP: The Latest: Carbon dioxide emissions see steep jump in 2018
    KATOWICE, Poland
    10 p.m.
    World carbon dioxide emissions are estimated to have risen 2.7 percent from 2017 to 2018. That’s according to three studies released Wednesday from the Global Carbon Project, an international scientific collaboration that tracks greenhouse gas emissions.
    Scientists say the calculations, announced during negotiations to put the 2015 Paris climate accord into effect, puts some of the landmark agreement’s goals nearly out of reach.
    Andrew Jones of Climate Interactive, which models greenhouse gas emissions and temperatures but was not part of the research, says “this is terrible news.”

    7:10 p.m.
    Environmental activists are naming Saudi Arabia and Brazil as “fossils of the day” at this year’s U.N. climate conference.
    The Climate Action Network awarded them the dubious honor Wednesday, citing Saudi delegates’ efforts to oppose ambitious efforts to curb global warming.
    The group said the Brazil would share the booby prize because of its incoming president’s refusal to host the next round of talks. It also cited Jair Bolsonaro’s threat to allow deforestation of the Amazon rainforest, a key sponge for global greenhouses gas emissions.
    Host Poland received the first “fossil of the day” award at this year’s talks in Katowice on Tuesday. CAN accused the government of undermining the European Union position by promoting its coal industry…

    3:35 p.m.
    Environmental activists are questioning the presence of coal, oil and gasoline companies at this year’s U.N. climate talks.
    Pascoe Sabido of the Brussels-based Corporate Europe Observatory claimed Wednesday that firms responsible for significant greenhouse gas emissions are getting access to negotiations and holding high-profile events during the U.N. climate talks in Poland.
    Sabido accused companies such as Polish coal and gas firm Tauron, which is offering free rides around Katowice in electric cars, of using the event to “greenwash” their activities.
    Activists noted the ties between energy companies and national or state governments at the conference lobbying on their behalf.
    Sabido suggested there should be a “firewall” between corporations and delegates similar to the one that the World Health Organization established to prevent tobacco firms from influencing anti-smoking negotiations..

    2 p.m.
    The United Nations says curbing climate change will have huge benefits for people’s health worldwide.
    The World Health Organization said Wednesday that meeting the 2015 Paris accord’s goals would significantly cut global air pollution, saving a million lives each year by 2050.
    Fuels that produce air pollution, such as coal, gasoline and wood, are also a major source of greenhouse gas emissions.
    In a report released at the U.N. climate summit in Poland, WHO said the savings on health expenditure will far outweigh the cost of tackling global warming.
    WHO said climate change will also affect drinking water supplies, the level of nutrients in staple foods such as rice, and the likelihood of natural disasters, while measures to curb it, like promoting cycling over driving, have proven health benefits.
    This item has been corrected to show that wood is a fuel that produces air pollution, not a fossil fuel.
    https://apnews.com/5fb26d010ff54e3ba9d3a45fe7112214

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    pat

    behind paywall – no other coverage:

    4 Dec: UK Telegraph: Britain’s oldest coal plants called on to avoid running out of power as cold sets in
    by Jillian Ambrose
    Britain’s oldest coal-fired power plants prepared to fire up their hoppers for a price of almost £1,000 per megawatt-hour on Tuesday to avert a power shortfall as temperatures across the country plunge and wind power wanes.
    The cold snap ignited the winter’s first warning that Britain would run out of electricity unless idling coal plants ramp up to help meet demand for power.

    National Grid said on Monday evening that there was a 100pc probability that the lights would go out within 24 hours unless an extra 2GW of power capacity agreed to help meet demand.
    The first negative supply forecast of the season spurred the operators of Britain’s oldest plants to offer their power at prices well above…
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2018/12/04/britains-oldest-coal-plants-called-avoid-running-power-cold/

    reminder:

    2 Dec: Spectator UK blog: If Britain can’t keep the lights on this winter, will the EU be to blame?
    by Tony Lodge
    (Tony Lodge is a Research Fellow at the Centre for Policy Studies)
    Britain’s ability to keep the lights on has just been thrown into doubt by the European Court of Justice. It has ruled that the backbone of the UK’s capacity market energy scheme, which pays power stations to generate electricity, is illegal state aid and must be suspended. To call this a body blow for energy security is a gross understatement; as you read these words Whitehall is desperately trying to reassure generators and very nervous investors…

    Ministers are now appealing the decision and trying to get the Commission to approve the policy, which has been in place since 2014. A short term fix to try and secure enough power for this winter is planned but this is likely to mean much more imported power through undersea interconnector cables from the continent…READ ON
    https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2018/12/if-britain-cant-keep-the-lights-on-this-winter-will-the-eu-be-to-blame/

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    • #
      el gordo

      If it goes bad, then we can expect a popular English uprising.

      ‘Payments to power stations through the capacity market have now been stopped until the Government can get permission from the European Commission to restart them, but this could take years.’

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      • #
        OriginalSteve

        Hmmm if your population is freezing, who cares what the EU says…

        They should throw the EU out of Britain like the Hungarian govt threw Soros’ Open Society Foundation out of Hungary…..

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    pat

    Express covers the engineers’ report:

    5 Dec: UK Express: Major Scottish power cut could last days, engineers warn
    ENGINEERS have issued a warning about the growing danger of a power blackout – leaving Scotland facing deaths, riots and widespread food and water shortages.
    By Ben Borland
    The report adds: “All UK coal-fired generating stations are expected to close by 2025. Coal-fired and gas-fired generators are important in restoring electricity supply after a system failure.
    “Wind generators can only have a very limited role in such situations and nuclear generators cannot be quickly restarted. The time to restore supply in Scotland is now estimated in days – several days – rather than in hours.
    “A lengthy delay would have severe negative consequences – the supply of food, water, heat, money, petrol would be compromised; there would be limited communications. The situation would be nightmarish.”
    The report’s author, Iain MacLeod, called for politicians at Holyrood and Westminster to urgently review the safety of the UK’s power supply…

    He said: “The system was designed to keep the risk of failure to an acceptable level. For many decades the risk of failure was low.
    “Now, we are closing thermal stations to reduce emissions without a robust plan in place to address the long-term security of supply and security of operation.”
    GMB, the energy union, said there were 65 “low wind days” last year where wind farms produced less than 10 per cent of their total installed and connected capacity…
    https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1054654/power-cut-scotland-electricity-supply-engineers

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    pat

    interspersed with the likes of Tim Buckley, Coal Swarm, etc etc:

    5 Dec: Phys.org: China’s unbridled export of coal power imperils climate goals
    by Marlowe Hood
    Even as China struggles to curb domestic coal-fired power and the deadly pollution it produces, the world’s top carbon emitter is aggressively exporting the same troubled technology to Asia, Africa and the Middle East, an investigation by AFP has shown.
    Globally, coal use accounts for 40 percent of CO2 emissions, and is on the rise after declining slightly from 2014 to 2016…

    More than two-fifths of the world’s electricity is generated by coal-fired power, nearly double the share of natural gas and 15 times as much as solar and wind combined.
    A quarter of coal plants in the planning stage or under construction outside China are backed by Chinese state-owned financial institutions and corporations, according to research by IEEFA, an energy finance think-tank based in Cleveland, Ohio…
    Remove India from the picture, and the share of coal development supported by China rises to above a third…

    Many of the recipients of China’s largesse—Egypt, Nigeria, Kenya, Senegal, Zimbabwe and half a dozen others—currently have little or no coal-fired power, and no coal to fuel future plants.
    “That means they will have to build import infrastructure, or even coal mines,” Shearer told AFP…

    SE Asian coal boom
    And yet, Chinese banks and investment agencies have committed more than $21 billion (18.5 billion euros) to developing 31 gigawatts (GW) of coal-fired capacity in a dozen countries, and an additional $15 billion is on offer to support projects that would generate 71 GW in 24 nations, for a total of more than 101 GW, IEEFA found.
    Worldwide, there are nearly 2,500 30-megawatt-or-larger coal-fired stations in operation, with a combined capacity of about 2000 GW, according to the (Global Coal Plant Tracker).

    As of last month, South Korea and its export credit agencies were positioned to back 12 GW of coal-fired power abroad, and Japan was behind another 10, according to a research note from Han Chen, international energy policy manager at the Natural Resources Defense Council.
    During the 2013-2018 period, South Korea and Japan financed 8 GW and 20 GW, respectively…
    https://phys.org/news/2018-12-china-unbridled-export-coal-power.html

    TWEET: Chloe Ferand, DeSmogUK, Guardian, Independent,BBC
    The Polish pavilion is indeed a eulogy to coal or, as it calls it, “black gold”. There is coal soap, coal earrings, coal cufflinks and necklets. Coal is described as “incredibly soft and fragile” and a “challenging material” praised as “a hidden charm”. Not a joke

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    pat

    an odd and frosty story!

    5 Dec: CBC: Electrical grid expert has never seen frost cause massive power outage
    SaskPower says outage caused by heavy frost on the power lines, Lights back on across most of Saskatchewan
    by Jason Warick
    “This isn’t the craziest I’ve heard, but it is an unlikely explanation,” said Robert McCullough, who has 40 years of experience consulting for public utilities and private energy firms in Canada and the U.S.
    “It doesn’t mean it hasn’t happened. It just means in my 40 years in the business, I just haven’t seen it.”…

    Parts of Regina, Moose Jaw, Estevan and other communities had no power for much of Tuesday.
    SaskPower official Jordan Jackle said it was caused by heavy frost on the power lines, and repeated that explanation in a follow-up news conference on Wednesday. The frost formed several days ago and worsened with a lack of sunshine, he said.
    The frost caused multiple lines to fail, Jackle said.
    “We lost two very important transmission lines in the south-east, which caused the outage. The level of grid instability caused by that transmission loss is what caused our power stations at Poplar River and Boundary Dam to go down,” Jackle said Wednesday…

    The power stations were brought back online before the transmission lines were, he said. That means power was available, but there was a gap between that repair and when it could be carried to people’s homes…
    SaskPower estimated between 175,000 and 200,000 households and businesses lost power during the height of the blackout.
    The Crown utility said a power failure Wednesday morning in communities north of Saskatoon including Cudworth, Wakaw and Colonsay was not related to Tuesday’s event, but was likely also related to frost…

    Oregon-based expert McCullough, who has worked for utilities in Newfoundland, Quebec, Ontario, Manitoba and B.C., is skeptical. He admitted he has no specific knowledge of the Saskatchewan incident, but said he’s never heard of frost alone causing this kind of shutdown known as a “cascading distribution outage.”
    He said ice storms frequently weigh down and damage individual lines, but don’t cause the shutdown of three, or even one, power plants.
    “It doesn’t cascade up to a region-wide outage. The system should be resilient to handle frost,” he said.
    Much more frequently, the cause is the failure of a power plant itself or human error…

    “This was a very unique weather event,” Jackle said…
    Jackle said they’ll review the incident to see if they can learn from it. He said there could be more smaller outages in the coming days because the frost is still thick in some areas.
    It’s likely not feasible to manually knock the heavy frost off transmission lines to prevent events like this since there are so many power lines in the province, he said.
    Power remained out late into the night Tuesday just outside Rosetown, but a worker reached at the Dinsmore health centre Wednesday morning said power had returned.
    All hospitals in the Saskatchewan Health Authority were reporting normal activities and all schools in Regina and Moose Jaw will be open.
    https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/saskatoon/saskpower-grids-frost-skeptical-1.4933052

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      pat

      update plus some lessons for us!

      Updated 6 Dec: CBC: ‘It’s a good thing it’s not real cold’: Dark winter night during power outage in southeast Sask.
      SaskPower says all electricity in province has been restored
      by Chelsea Laskowski
      Power had previously been restored in Regina, according to a SaskPower tweet, and SaskPower’s outage map showed Estevan, Moose Jaw, Weyburn and all but a small patch in the south-east had turned their lights back on before nightfall on Tuesday.
      That southeast area, which the Berry’s Carievale, Sask. home is located, was facing a delicate situation overnight that threatened to keep power out through to Wednesday, according to SaskPower’s website.
      The challenges for SaskPower included serious damage to the part of the transmission system that distributes power to houses, high winds that could hamper repair efforts, and the lack of improvement with heavy frost and ice that’s weighing down power lines…

      The risk of an overnight outage didn’t faze Maurice, who has a pellet stove and propane heater to keep him and his kids warm, and a generator to keep their TV going. A camp stove is doing the trick for food preparation.
      As of 7 p.m., he said his home was just a little cooler than usual.
      “It’s a good thing it’s not real cold. We’re making out alright,” Maurice said.

      The generator is an investment he’s made after similar outages over the past few years. One of them was as long as 30 hours, right in the midst of winter. Others in the area have gone so far as to buy standby generators that can power their whole farm.
      Maurice pinpoints heavy frost, mist and ice that weighs down power poles as the cause for these repeated outages. SaskPower’s Jordan Jackle agreed that the sagging power poles have been an issue and SaskPower will be looking into as the possible cause for the power woes over the past 24 hours.
      Maurice said some poles have gone down recently, and they already faced off and on power outages for a few days leading up to Tuesday…

      Had the outage continued in their area, Maurice and his mother had both been planning to turn their propane stoves off at night.
      Duane McKay, commissioner of Emergency Management concurs.
      People are “maybe heating their homes with propane or camp stoves and those types of things. And while that may give you heat, it also produces carbon monoxide and over a period of time you can be really harmed by that,” McKay said…

      SaskPower advised that reducing stress on the system while they repair the system will help out. That means holding off on using the dishwasher and washing machine, unplugging unused electronics and bumping down the thermostat.
      To keep from putting power crews in danger, SaskPower asked to only use generators that have a switch, since poorly installed generators can feed power back into the lines.
      https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/saskatoon/saskpower-outage-southeast-saskatchewan-1.4932823

      a litte earlier:

      5 Dec: GlobalNewsCanada: Power outages still affecting several Saskatchewan communities
      By Jonathan Guignard
      “We’re not totally out of the woods at this point. We need the sun to come out and start burning off some of that frost out there,” Jackle said.
      It’s likely the largest power outage in the province since 1981; the blackout has affected about 200,000 customers, leading many of them to public spaces.
      “We saw a much bigger reach this year than we did last year on a similar date. The food court was a big increase; people going out for lunch swung by the mall to grab a bite. It was pretty busy,” said Jesse Manastyrski of Southland Shopping Centre in Regina.

      But for some, the experience wasn’t as positive.
      Due to Tuesday’s power outage, Souls Harbour, a local shelter in Regina, was forced to shut down its kitchen and chose to close its doors for the night, saying the organization was not able to cook or keep the place warm, which required Souls Harbour to send people elsewhere.
      “The dorm itself was full, which houses 40 people,” said Wayne McDonough, executive director of the Salvation Army Waterston Centre, of the facility.

      McDonough said Salvation Army’s biggest challenge on Tuesday was providing food.
      “All we could really do last night — because our kitchen was shut down and dark — was provide them with sandwiches and some of the basics,” McDonough said.

      For now, SaskPower believes the worst is over, but the utility is still encouraging residents to limit their power consumption.
      https://globalnews.ca/news/4733636/power-outages-saskatchewan/

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    OriginalSteve

    Oh no…….man the lifeboats!!

    Must be a slow news day…..

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/science/2018-12-06/greenland-ice-sheet-melting-accelerating/10581980

    “Both the UN Environment and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) sounded the alarm over the dire climate trajectory we’re on, and the huge efforts needed to limit warming to 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.

    And in June, research published in Nature pointed to a tripling of the rate of melting of the Antarctic ice sheet over the last five years.
    Now, new research published in Nature today has confirmed a similar trend is occurring in the Greenland ice sheet.

    Researchers used ice cores to create a 350 year continuous analysis of the melting rate of ice in central west Greenland.

    An ice core is a sample taken from an ice pack with a hollow drill, revealing a cross-section that effectively looks back in time, a bit like the rings of a tree.

    They found that over the last 20 years, the rate of melting has been as much as five times as high as pre-industrial melt rates, and that the rate of melting is increasing, according to researcher Luke Trusel from Rowan University in the United States.
    “The main conclusion that we found is that it’s now melting more in recent decades than any time in the last four centuries, and probably more than any time in the last seven to eight thousand years,” Dr Trusel said.

    “That change that we’ve seen in the last two decades is unmistakable.”
    According to their ice core samples, 2012 was “unambiguously” the most intense melt year on record in Greenland.

    An increased rate of melting was detected in the ice cores beginning in the mid-1800s, which was around the same time as the onset of industrial-era Arctic warming.
    But it was only during the 1970s that the melting clearly breached the natural range of variability.

    In other words, we expect to see some differences in melting between years, but during the 1970s that melting occurred on a scale beyond what could possibly be explained by a fluctuation around a stable average of ice cover.

    Over 7 metres of sea-level rise locked in Greenland ice sheet
    Significantly, they’ve confirmed that the increasing melting rate is following an exponential trajectory, caused by positive feedbacks like the albedo effect, according to Dr Trusel.

    The albedo effect describes the phenomenon where dark surfaces absorb more heat than reflective white surfaces like ice and snow.”

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      theRealUniverse

      “Significantly, they’ve confirmed that the increasing melting rate is following an exponential trajectory, ” Thats is a total lie based on the Danish Met service which reports the Greenland Ice sheet is INCREASING!

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    • #
      AndyG55

      “350 year”

      ROFLMAO

      Ya mean they started basically in the middle of the Little Ice Age. DOH !!!!!

      THANK GOODNESS for the NATURAL warming !!! :-)

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      sophocles

      OriginalSteve wrote:

      An increased rate of melting was detected in the ice cores beginning in the mid-1800s, which was around the same time as the onset of industrial-era Arctic warming. But it was only during the 1970s that the melting clearly breached the natural range of variability.

      And all this time, at the same time, coincidentally and in parallel, the increasing ice pack, yes, increasing snow and ice cover, was adding, yes, that’s correct—adding about/around/circa 1.8m per year, yes, that’s correct: almost 2metres per year) to the entombing of Glacier Girl one of a flight of Lockheed P38 Lightning fighters and some Boeing B15 bombers which were forced down on the south east (the warmer part) of the Greenland Glacier in 1942.

      The aircraft were discovered using ground-sensing radar, some 264feet below the surface.
      You can read all about it at the link above.

      Between discovery (1988) and the start of the excavations (1992) the planes were buried by another 4m of ice. I will leave you to do the arithmetic. The rumours about the demise of Greenland’s Ice Cap are both premature and outright wrong. Fake News

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      • #
        sophocles

        … buried 264 feet in ice over about 40 years is a fantastic rate of melting.
        The best I’ve ever heard about.
        Absolutely superb!

        Glacier Girl has been restored and is in good flying health, yet the prats/fools/idiots/Deniers who still write this cruft/rubbish/fake news/propaganda can’t do some basic Internet searching—how hard is it to use an Internet Search Engine anyway?—and don’t even bother to find out for themselves.

        Polly wants a cracker! Squaaaaawwwwk! Right b****y NOW!

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        sophocles

        Typo alert:
        B15 should be B17
        Sorry about that.
        My keyboard makes mistakes …

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  • #
    Another Ian

    Worse than “ABC News Maths”

    So a 12% rate hike that will cost average households more that $100 per year saves them money?

    Has Orwellian speak now migrated to finance?

    “Under a renewable energy proposal from Northern Indiana Public Service Company (NIPSCO), Indiana consumers would face a 12 percent electricity rate hike, which will cost the average household more than $100 per year in additional electricity costs. NIPSCO is justifying its renewable power rate hike by asserting renewable power saves consumers money, but there’s absolutely no truth to these claims.”

    https://wattsupwiththat.com/2018/12/05/indiana-utility-seeks-12-percent-rate-hike-to-shut-down-coal-power/

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    • #
      pat

      Another Ian -

      ABC maths never got me more riled than when they claimed electricity bills had only increased by A THIRD IN TEN YEARS!!!!!!

      22 Nov: ABC: Power bill pressures vs emissions vs reliability: Behind the new election battleground
      By political reporter Jackson Gothe-Snape
      ***In the past decade, people are paying ***one third more than they used to in order to keep the lights on…
      ***Over the past 10 years, Australians have opened their energy bills to see an increase of ***35 per cent.
      That would be even higher were it not for a general reduction in electricity use over this time…
      https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-11-22/australian-energy-market-explained-price-emissions-reliability/10499256

      CHECK OUT SOME OF ABC’S JACKSON GOTHE-SNAPE’S OTHER ARTICLES!
      most recent: Misstated ‘fact’ used by Minister to argue for regional migration
      By political reporter Jackson Gothe-Snape
      Posted about 9 hours ago | Updated about 7 hours ago …
      https://www.abc.net.au/news/jackson-gothe-snape/8998150

      Gothe-Snape was with SBS until last year:

      SBS BIO: Jackson Gothe-Snape: Jackson Gothe-Snape is a journalist working for SBS in Canberra.
      He creates stories with help from trusted contacts, cold calling, code and data.
      A former lawyer and public servant, he has worked in the Parliamentary Press Gallery since 2013.

      21 Mar: AFR: The ABC hasn’t learnt from Alberici tax debacle
      By Joe Aston
      Will Aunty ever learn? Its latest effort is entitled “Every big business that would benefit from the company tax cut, in one chart” by Jackson Gothe-Snape, published online last week. It flourishes an extravagant graphic of Australia’s largest publicly-traded corporations’ gross revenue (for fiscal year unknown).

      Nothing about their profits (before or after tax) or their tax inputs over a fair cycle.
      What, you may ask, has a company’s turnover got to do with its tax obligation? Nothing, dear Watson. Absolutely nothing. Four weeks feel like many more inside the Ultimo bunker, and so the Alberici affair is ancient history…

      ***Herein lies Aunty’s mortifying failure of self-realisation: nobody there seems to understand the difference between revenue and profit, let alone the catalytic incentive offered for capital multiplication by favourable tax jurisdictions. This is an ideological disease born of free school education, then free university, then comfortable employment at a free media outlet (paid for by the taxpayers it impugns with impunity) baiting them to unmask the rapacity of capital.
      https://www.afr.com/brand/rear-window/the-abc-hasnt-learnt-from-alberici-tax-debacle-20180321-h0xsib

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  • #
    Another Ian

    OMG! Don’t tell Bill

    “SACRAMENTO — Long a leader and trendsetter in its clean-energy goals, California took a giant step on Wednesday, becoming the first state to require all new homes to have solar power.”

    https://chiefio.wordpress.com/2018/12/04/w-o-o-d-3-december-2018/#comment-104810

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    robert rosicka

    Totally OT but just heard on Credlin , the Govt evacuated an asylum seeker from Nauru to the mainland on emergency medical advice , they are reporting that the asylum seeker was treated for constipation but once in OZ all medical referrals are jumped on by ambulance chasers who put an injunction on them being returned.
    No medical evacuation illegal immigrant is returned because of this , now Labor and their Green mates have passed an amendment in the upper house to ensure that more of this happens in future .

    The cost of evacuation for the one patient was estimated to be $100,000.00 , now any two doctors anywhere on the island or on oz can sign a shonky medical certificate to evacuate an illegal immigrant from the island and once they land in oz their here to stay .

    Labor and the Greens have put the people smugglers back in business .

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  • #
    Crakar24

    SA and Vic leading the way on power prices again lol

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  • #
    pat

    5 Dec: ImperialCollegeLondon: Information and support key to creating “smart” consumers of electricity
    by Neasan O’Neill
    If we want consumers to actively engage with their electricity, information and support must improve, says new report from Energy Futures Lab.
    A new report published by Energy Futures Lab (LINK) has drawn up recommendations for how the energy industry and UK government could increase consumer engagement with the new breed of smart energy technologies and services. The report’s authors conclude that providing consumers with more detailed information, the right tools to help them make choices and the ability to easily act on these decisions are key if we want “smart” consumers.

    One of the challenges of our current energy system is matching supply with demand. To ensure we can keep the lights on every evening there needs to be a large amount of energy being generated but conversely the amount of energy needed at 4am is small in comparison.
    It is hoped that the introduction of devices like smart meters and domestic battery storage alongside new kinds of electricity tariffs will allow us to smooth out this demand through Demand Response (DR). This would mean moving some demand, e.g. running a dishwasher, to a time of lower demand, which would also mean a cheaper rate.
    “Demand Response is no panacea but I believe it will be a key component in any future, low-carbon, energy system,” says Dr Richard Carmichael, the paper’s lead author, “I hope this paper helps people in industry and policymaking understand how we can get people involved and the importance of communicating to them the full benefits in ways they can act on.”

    The briefing paper (LINK) investigates the evidence around how consumers engage with electricity demand response technologies and services in their home. Much of the evidence base is from field trials and survey research which aim to measure and predict levels of DR engagement. The team behind the briefing paper suggest an approach which aims instead to understand and address barriers to greater DR engagement in a real-world context…
    DOWNLOADS
    https://www.imperial.ac.uk/news/189369/information-support-creating-smart-consumers-electricity/

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  • #
    pat

    5 Dec: EastMidlandsBusinessLink: UK is second only to Denmark in climate change mitigation, says new report
    By Stuart Pearcey
    The UK is second only to Denmark when it comes to implementing measures to mitigate climate change, according to a new global energy revolution league table.
    In the report ‘Energy Revolution: A Global Outlook’, researchers from Imperial College London have assessed 25 countries, covering 80% of the world’s population.

    Launched at the UN climate change conference in Katowice, Poland, the report looks at each country’s performance across five metrics, including:
    •Clean power ETC ETC ETC

    The UK’s carbon price – its charge on greenhouse gas emissions which is stronger than elsewhere in Europe – has led to rapid deployment of renewables and the fastest phase out of coal power, making for world-leading progress in reducing the carbon emissions from power generation.

    Whilst most countries have reduced the amount of carbon dioxide produced per kWh of electricity by 100g/ kWh over the last decade, the figure in the UK is more than double that at 260g/kWh.

    Uptake of electric vehicles is also among the highest in the UK, which is home to the world’s fifth largest electric vehicle fleet.

    However, progress in the UK is being hampered by the fact it lags behind on the provision of large-scale carbon capture and storage facilities, says the report, needed to limit the harmful greenhouse gases accumulating in the atmosphere.

    The research was conducted by Imperial College London, facilitated by Imperial Consultants and commissioned by Drax Group.

    Responding to the findings Will Gardiner, Drax Group CEO, said: “Our global economy is changing and the transition to zero carbon, lower cost energy is vital if countries are to be able to compete…ETC
    https://www.eastmidlandsbusinesslink.co.uk/mag/news/uk-is-second-only-to-denmark-in-climate-change-mitigation-says-new-report/

    5 Dec: DRAX: UK among world leaders in global energy revolution
    New report launched at COP24
    In the report Energy Revolution: A Global Outlook (LINK TO REPORT), researchers from Imperial College London have assessed 25 countries, covering 80% of the world’s population…
    https://www.drax.com/press_release/uk-among-world-leaders-global-energy-revolution/

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  • #
    pat

    goodnight Wales:

    5 Dec: BBC Wales: Wales sets new climate change targets
    By Steffan Messenger, BBC Wales Environment Correspondent
    New legally-binding carbon emissions targets for Wales have been announced.
    They set the path towards an overall reduction of 80% from 1990 levels by 2050.
    Because of Wales’ heavy industry like steelworks, power generation and its agriculture, this presents a particular challenge.

    Ministers want emission cuts through the likes of more sustainable transport and energy efficient buildings to be “at the front and centre” of policies.
    Emissions in Wales only fell by 19% from 1990 to 2015, compared with a 38% reduction for the UK as a whole…
    An action plan with further details about how these much deeper reductions in emissions can be achieved will follow in March.
    Assembly members voted to accept the targets after a debate on Tuesday night…

    The problem for Wales is that the sources of more than half of all emissions are beyond the direct influence of the Welsh Government.
    They include those from large emitters such as Aberthaw coal-fired power station in the Vale of Glamorgan and the steelworks in Port Talbot, dealt with under the EU’s Emissions Trading Scheme. This allows some companies to pay for extra emissions while other firms cut back

    Farming is also a contributor, through emissions from livestock eating food…

    The new targets set out what Wales will need to do in stages over the next 30 years…
    The Welsh Government will be joining the UN COP24 climate talks in Poland next week with the UK delegation…
    The regulations were also supported by the Welsh Conservatives. Tory AM Andrew RT Davies said: “It’s vital that the Welsh Labour Government takes the general public with them.”…READ ALL
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-46426447

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  • #
    John Michael Dique

    Okay. Are we going to get a decent Bond film out of this saga ?

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  • #
    pat

    no worries Scotland:

    5 Dec: The National Scotland: Scotland ‘a leader’ on climate action, Sturgeon tells summit
    By Greg Russell
    The First Minister was speaking during a session at COP24 in Katowice, when she said climate change was accelerating and they had to accelerate the “pace and scale” of their actions to combat it…
    “We aim to be a carbon neutral country by 2050, we aim to be net zero of all greenhouse gas emissions as soon as we possibly can achieve that and we will achieve that by taking action across a range of sectors.

    “We have already substantially decarbonised our electricity supply, we aim to meet at least half of all of our energy needs from renewable sources by 2030.
    “We have set ambitious targets around electric vehicles and we want to be a country that is reaping the economic benefits of being an early adopter and being in the lead on tackling climate change.”

    Sturgeon went on to highlight the economic advantage for countries that become “early adopters and innovators”. With a population of five million, Scotland had a “significant” low carbon and renewable economy, with 50,000 jobs.
    “It has a turnover of £11 billion, so it is significant and growing. By being a leader, for example in wind energy and tidal energy, we’ve created jobs and research opportunities and economic opportunities…

    The FM went on to outline how the proposed Just Transition Commission would work by demonstrating that there was nothing to fear with a low carbon economy.
    She said: “We will be working closely with civil society, trade unions, the NGO community and private companies to demonstrate that there is nothing to fear and everything to gain from the transition to a low carbon economy; that we can create new jobs that replace jobs in the older industries; and that those jobs can often be higher skilled, better paid.
    “So we can benefit by doing the right thing for our own country and for the planet.”

    Earlier, African climate leaders had called on the Scottish Government to raise its ambition on climate change.
    In a letter to Sturgeon, the Pan African Climate Justice Alliance (PACJA) – representing more than 1000 member organisations from 45 African countries – praised Holyrood for its pioneering efforts so far, notably the “bold step” of launching the Climate Justice Fund which has been emulated elsewhere.

    However, its executive director Mithika Mwenda said that in light of the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report, Scotland must respond by “putting in place measures to drastically cut its emissions as science demands”.
    “For communities in Africa devastated by the adverse effects of climate change, we keep hoping against hope that countries like Scotland will rise to the occasion and stand to be counted as the global community rallies against time to avoid the precipice,” he said.

    Chris Hegarty, spokesperson for Stop Climate Chaos Scotland, added: “The Paris Agreement puts equity at the heart of global efforts to tackle climate change, yet this principle is under threat with richer countries unwilling to do their fair share.”
    https://www.thenational.scot/news/17275955.scotland-a-leader-on-climate-action-sturgeon-tells-summit/

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  • #
    John Michael Dique

    I’ve been wondering which episode of Star Trek The Original Series , does this story most resemble. It’s all part of life’s rich pageant , I suppose.

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  • #
    pat

    of no interest whatsoever to the FakeNewsMSM – especially during COP24:

    5 Dec: Youtube: first 55secs: CCTV: Ice Fog Grips China’s Northernmost City
    A rare ice fog enveloped China’s northernmost city of Mohe, with the temperature dropping to minus 42.7 degrees Celsius and even to minus 43.5 degrees in a village.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zdxV79JnZ1s

    6 Dec: ECNS China: Brace yourself for a cold snap that’s heading south
    by Li Yan
    A cold wave sweeping across the country has pushed the mercury down by 6 to 8 C across much of central and eastern China, prompting the National Meteorological Center to issue its second blue alert for a cold snap this week on Wednesday.
    This winter’s first blue alert for cold – the least severe – was issued on Tuesday evening
    The cold spell is expected to persist through Sunday. As it heads south, the freezing air will reach as far as the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, the center said.

    Under its influence, the temperature in Beijing will drop to -10 C or lower this week, the coldest in at least a decade. The coldest early December day in recent years in the city was Dec 5, 2008, when temperatures fell to-10 C.
    The central parts of the Inner Mongolia autonomous region and South China’s Guangxi Zhuang autonomous region will see temperatures drop more than 10 C, the center said…

    Before the freezing air poured into large parts of China, the country’s northern areas had already been hit with wind chills and heavy snow.
    As many as 5,000 tourists were stranded at Urumqi Diwopu International Airport in northwestern China’s Xinjiang Uygur autonomous region on Tuesday after about 100 flights were canceled due to days of heavy snow, China National Radio reported.
    China’s northernmost city, Mohe in Heilongjiang province, issued a red alert for a cold snap on Monday, its first since records began, before the mercury plunged by 22.1 C to -41.1 C on Tuesday and dipped further to-42.7 C on Wednesday.
    A shroud of white mist blanketed the city streets on Wednesday morning as water vapor in the air froze, rendering visibility outside to less than 100 meters on Wednesday morning.

    “We have dispatched police to key sections of the roads to guide traffic and prevent accidents caused by frozen ice or snow,” said local police officer Wang Zhijia, who had donned his heaviest clothing to brace against the bitter cold. Frigid air triggered a provincial level orange alert – the second most severe – by the Heilongjiang Meteorological Bureau on Tuesday as Harbin, the provincial capital in the south, saw a low of -20 C this week.
    However, the deep freeze engulfing North China hasn’t damped down the passion of tourists heading north to see the winter spectacle.
    Tan Jian from the eastern province of Jiangxi visited Mohe on Wednesday and reveled in throwing a cup of boiling water in subzero air, which instantly froze into an ice-mist spiral.
    “It’s absolutely beautiful and exhilarating. The scene is unique to this place and I came here to experience the coldest of North China,” he said.
    http://www.ecns.cn/news/society/2018-12-06/detail-ifzanuxq9375843.shtml

    5 Dec: Youtube: 27secs: Peoples Daily: -43.5℃! People enjoy “splashing water into ice”
    -43.5℃! People enjoy “splashing water into ice” in Mohe, the northernmost city in China, located in NE Heilongjiang Province.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FjpDNv9bmo0

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  • #
    sophocles

    It strikes me as interesting that there is now a big push to replace the tried and true with CHEAP (= big LIE! I will accept NASTY) electricity generation at this time with ever more Unreliables:

    —just as the Sun goes into a minimum, opening the atmosphere up to the highest intensity of GCRs (Galactic Cosmic Rays) we have ever/so far measured since the start of the space age. GCRs are now known to aid/assist/help in the generation of low level clouds, the rainy/snowy/sleety/hailing ones.

    That increases cloud cover.
    Increasing cloud cover lowers temperatures.
    Increasing cloud cover increases rain/hail/snow showers as in deluges—hail and PV panels were just made for each other!
    Increasing cloud cover lowers the efficiency of PV panels. Oy vay!
    —solar power suddenly doesn’t look so good, seeing as we have another two years to go before we reach the true minimum and then we have to come out the other side.

    Oh, that’s okay, there’s always really cheap wind. Yup. It’s so cheap, it’s hardly ever there. The really good news about wind is that, just as PV cells are losing the sun, the planet’s reserves of wind are also … falling.

    From the INSTITUTE OF ATMOSPHERIC PHYSICS, CHINESE ACADEMY OF SCIENCES, as published on Wattsupwiththat on Dec 5th this year (2018) comes:
    Study: Global wind speed dropping, wind farms victim of “atmospheric stilling”
    Downloadable preprint (pdf) http://www.escience.cn/system/file?fileId=102783 for a while if you like/prefer the full papers …

    That’s right Nature: do it again, another one, c’mon: one, two! That’s the stuff!

    And to top it all, the darned planet sets out to enjoy a magnetic pole swap, with the planetary magnetic field having lost over 15% of it’s field strength, allowing more Solar Wind into the Ionosphere where it can wreak more of its deviltry with human health, (strokes, heart attacks etc) planetary health (big 6 + earthquakes) and volcanoes and really stir up the weather. 10% of that field strength loss was over the last couple of centuries, 5% of that was over just the last decade. Oops!

    The Yellowstone Supervolcano in North America has a pretty regular periodicity of 600,000 years. It seems to be stirring.
    It went off last time 600,000 years ago. It may be filling its magma chamber(s) right now.

    C’mon Ma Nature: put the Boot In!
    Put it in! Harder! Harder!

    And we’re expected to worry about livestock? Methane? (-1 ppm/v) Batteries? (yeah, we could get a damned good battering soon!) EVs? and all the other rubbish the True Believers are lining up on the pike for us?
    And hello: now Yellowstone, no, not that one! I sure hope not!.

    Serendipity … don’t you just love it? :-)

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  • #
    sophocles

    Here’s another interesting problem which seems to be coming down the pike at us along with all the other ones:
    2024 is a year to watch. And here is a video purporting to explain why:
    Mini Ice Age 2024 Maths- Its not good news – Milankovitch Cycles

    Is this Nature’s about to put the second boot in?

    Now, I’ve not checked the arithmetic at all … yet, but if you find it interesting, you may like to cross check it for yourself. It’s not arduous, and should take not a lot of time at all. You won’t even need to look up G (the gravitational constant).

    Heh, a fourth problem to put on the stack. Should the UN be worried? Well, if it’s not Business As Usual, then 2100 will not be 2.0°C or any larger number over the present temps, not even 1.5°C, It might be 3°C, 5°C, or less as in below present temps. Zharkova did mention some of this.

    Heh, this is a good exercise for Twinotter et al. :-) and all the other trolls, such as Philthegeek etc.

    Enjoy.

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  • #
    Gerry, England

    According to the Daily Telegraph, the UK had to bring old coal generation – presumably plants not yet closed and then dynamited almost the second the gates closed – back to avoid running out of power. The intermittent use of these plants meant they were being paid £1000/Mwh. Some green knob will be wailing out fossil fuel subsidy no doubt but then if it wasn’t for the subsidies for wind and solar and the carbon tax, there would be no need to overpay.

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  • #
    Robber

    Heading for 38 degrees in Vic and SA today, the sun is shining, the wind is blowing strongly (capacity factor over 60%), what better time to illustrate the low costs of “renewables”. But current wholesale spot prices are over $110/MWhr, with forecasts for the evening of $10,000/MWhr. Meanwhile in Qld/NSW prices are $70-80/MWhr.

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