JoNova

A science presenter, writer, speaker & former TV host; author of The Skeptic's Handbook (over 200,000 copies distributed & available in 15 languages).


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Weekend Unthreaded

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Weekend Unthreaded, 10.0 out of 10 based on 12 ratings

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169 comments to Weekend Unthreaded

  • #
    Harry Passfield

    Oh Dear! I find I’m alone here. But that gives this Brit a chance to say a heart-felt thank you to you, Jo (and your family) for staying with this blog over the years I have followed you.

    When (Prince) Harry gets to visit I do hope you will be able to somehow disabuse him of his father’s misbegotten views on AGW.

    KBO!!

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    • #
      Roger

      Lest We Forget.

      Queen Elizabeh 1st saw ice 6ft thick on the Thames in London, ice fairs on the Thames, oak trees split in half as the deep freeze of the Little Ice Age caused the sap to expand and split the trunk, ships were frozen ice a mile off the East coat of England.

      The LIA eventuaĺly came to an end in the 1850s with a final cold flourish around the 1870s. It had been as much as 2-3 C Colder than the 20th century.

      Since the 1850s the world has warmed by around 1C according to the IPCC …. But they now claim a further 0.5C warming would be apocalyptic…..

      Clearly these self-styled ‘experts’ have No Knowledge of history, far from being anything to worry about the greatest advances of mankind and civilisation have occurred during periods far warmer than today…. and considerably warmer than the IPCC’s ‘apocalypitic’ 0.5 C.

      The Medieval Warm Period was a global event that saw temperatures 1-2C Hotter than today; the Roman Warm Period was 2C and more Hotter while the Minoan Warm Period was a staggering 3C Hotter than today.

      Those times saw mankind make staggering advances in Art, Culture and civilisation because the temperatures were so benign.

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      • #
        Greg in NZ

        R, Lest We Remember…

        Accu(not)Weather, on hyping-up ex-troppo Leslie: “The Atlantic tropical cyclone longevity title is held by the San Ciriaco Hurricane from 1899. The storm killed thousands of people in Puerto Rico and lasted for nearly 28 days.” A month-long hurricane way way back in 1899 still holds the record? Unprecedented! Catastrophic! Existential even. Must’ve been those carbon polluting windmills and sailing ships and beasts of burden and pipe smokers.

        https://www.radionz.co.nz/news/world/368614/wild-weather-in-antarctica-delays-annual-journey

        Today “Antarctica is facing a series of storms that have caused the longest delay for the start of the season in decades [EVAH!!!] … wild winds and snow have closed the McMurdo Sound airfields… The storms have also affected [US military/scientists] who are due to fly south… so many of them are getting to know Christchurch very well.” I’m sure they are, in some cases, very intimately. So cAGW is great for the local economy… who knew!

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      • #
        Leo Morgan

        Oh come now, as a Green I can categorically say that if 1 degree melts ice, then another degree will boil it.
        Trust me, I know someone who’s read a lawyer who’s an IPCC Top Climate Scientist.
        </ sarcasm
        </ crying

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  • #
    James Murphy

    Oh dear, what a massive load of emotive, badly written rubbish… I am not sure why I read it all.

    Under IPCC forecasts babies born today will be 22 when warming hits 1.5C. What will life be like?
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/science/2018-10-13/climate-change-ipcc-life-in-2040/10359104

    Only on their ABC, of course…

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    • #
      PeterS

      I can think of two reasons why we read that kind of rubbish. One, we need to know the enemy as best we can to fight it and win. Two, we need to know what the public are being told given there is precious little material supporting the truth that manages come via the MSM. In both cases I find at least we were losing the war but recently things appear to be turning around. If the turnaround continues we should find ourselves winning the war against the CAGW scam soon. The next federal election will be a great litmus test. I hope Morrison makes power prices the number one issue and puts up a very strong campaign supporting coal and castigating renewables. The border protection issue is also very important but that should not require a lot of effort to promote. If the the voters decide to overstep both issues and vote in the ALP+Greens then so be it. In that case the public needs their buts kicked hard to wake them up, and they will get it in spades.

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      • #
        Graham Richards

        Peter S, a fight is only feasible if we have the assurance that we & Government are on the same page. Increasingly it appears our government is hell bent on doing exactly the opposite of what the electorate actually want, with regards to climate change, immigration & doling out of $$ millions in foreign aid which comes not from our coffers but from ever increasing borrowings.
        Our country is being led down an increasingly dangerous path by our own elected governments.
        It got to be stopped!

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          • #
            Dennis

            And this too, the Australian Constitution does not allow foreign interference or politicians to implement foreign UN treaties without we the people being consulted via a referendum.

            But we are not being consulted and have not been consulted on any of the agendas since the UN was established after WW2.

            http://concit.org/treachery-how-socialists-stole-australia-from-the-people/

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            • #
              Latus Dextro

              The UN International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) issued yet another “climate tipping point,” this time providing 12 years to make “unprecedented changes in all aspects of society.”

              I don’t need to highlight the obvious, 2030 is the due date for implementation of the UN Transformational Agenda.
              Forewarned is forearmed.

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              • #
                Dennis

                Everything needs close scrutiny because nothing the globalist socialists do or say does not have hidden ramifications and agendas.

                But constitutional law in Australia is being ignored, sovereignty being undermined, as President Trump has been complaining to the UN about that is impacting on all UN member nations.

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              • #
                sophocles

                2030 is also the year for the start of the new Little Ice Age
                Coincidence?

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              • #
                Mal

                No need to worry then. All their apocalyptic announcements are a rolling 12 years away.
                By definition it means we will never get there.

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          • #
            Roy Hogue

            Constitutions do seem to be in the way of those who seek power over us. I daresay that none of our constitutions require us to submit to an unelected and unaccountable organization called the United Nations. And yet we do just that. And they grab every pound of flesh they can.

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        • #
          PeterS

          As Andrew Bolt has said a number of times it’s not a matter of the individual anymore, it’s all about identity politics. We are gradually moving towards a true Orwellian society where the individual counts for nothing. What’s worse though is the technology today was not around at the time of George Orwell so a modern Orwellian society will be much worse than what he could ever thought of even in his worst nightmares. There will be no stopping it I’m afraid. It’s already gone too far for that anyway.

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          • #
            Dennis

            Maybe voters can fight back via the ballot box by placing last in this order;

            Green
            Labor
            Liberal
            National

            And vote for minor party candidates only?

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    • #
      yarpos

      with no comments enabled, of course

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  • #
    Carbon500

    I’ve just come across a Kindle book by Mischa Wu, detailing 40 ways to win a climate change argument. She’s described as a ‘climate researcher’, but just looking at a few pages on Amazon, it looks like the usual stuff – the ocean acidification scare, and so forth.
    I can’t anything more out about this lady. Does she have a scientific background? I suspect not!

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    • #
      Peter C

      Global Warming and Climate Change Researcher Mischa Wu wrote her book to arm climate advocates with knowledge against the uninformed. She cleverly gives her readers 40 Ways to Win a Pro Global Warming Argument.

      And it doesn’t stop there!

      Mischa also shares 74 One-Liners to School Your Skeptics in any heated debate. In addition, learn 33 Easy Ways to Reduce Global Warming that all devotees should be practicing daily to fight the war on Climate Change.

      Maybe you could buy the book and report on the 74 one liners so that we came be ready with a riposte, when confronted.

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      • #
        Graeme#4

        It’s interesting to watch the posting methodology used by the AGW crowd in the comments section of The Oz. it usually starts with a short post involving a fanciful claim. The next response is an appeal to authority, then we have the ad hominem attack, sometimes finishing with the “industry shill” claim.

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        • #
          Hanrahan

          It’s interesting to watch the posting methodology used by the AGW crowd in the comments section of The Oz. it usually starts with a short post involving a fanciful claim. The next response is an appeal to authority, then we have the ad hominem attack, sometimes finishing with the “industry shill” claim.

          So Patricia is still with you then.

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      • #
        Robert Swan

        What’s wrong with “Climate change science is crap”? Really rather tough to improve on that.

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        • #
          Surftilidie

          What’s wrong with Climate Science is the greatest oxymoron since Happily Married or Army Intelligence :)

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          • #
            Annie

            Speak for yourself there Surftilidie! I’m happily married to an intelligent ex-Army officer, (electronic engineer).
            I do agree that Climate ‘Science’ is an oxymoron…mor0n being the operative part of that word. ;)

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      • #
        Speedy

        G’day Peter – It’s even easier than that. The burden of proof lies with the proponent of a given theory. If their theory cannot, of itself, explain physical phenomena, such as the earth’s climate history, the Medieval, Roman and Greek warmings, lack of atmospheric hot spot – any ONE of those – then the theory is busted and needs to be either altered or rejected.

        It is one thing to have information that supports a theory “last Tuesday was the hottest October afternoon for 27 years in Wagga Wagga” – but it doesn’t trump an observation that flies in the face of its predictions (lack of hot spot, lack of relationship between historic CO2 levels and global temperatures etc).

        Best not to engage – it’s their theory, let them try and prove it in an open and transparent forum.

        Cheers,

        Speedy

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      • #
        theRealUniverse

        The wouldnt know what thermodynamics or solar physics is to save them selves.

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      • #
        Carbon500

        Peter C: I thought about perhaps getting a copy of Mischa Wu’s ‘book’, but Al Gore’s book has been about as much as I can take! I’m pleased to see much more in the way of sceptical literature coming out. When I first became interested in the C02 tale, I bought Gore’s book, and within minutes came to the conclusion that it was the best piece of propaganda I’d ever seen, very professionally put together.
        At that time, thankfully, the late Professor Robert Carter’s book was available (Climate: The Counter Consensus) and also Ian Plimer’s ‘Heaven and Earth’, plus an excellent book by S. Fred Singer. I’ve also read a couple of Roy Spencer’s books – all money well spent.
        Gore’s book went into the recycling bin.

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    • #
      RickWill

      Climate Change is a religious belief. You are a true believer or not.

      I would not pay money for any sermon from a believer. I examine the credible data. UAH has September 2018 0.14C above the 30 year average from 1980. I have lived and thrived through that period. I am doubtful I could detect 0.14C warmer or cooler.

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  • #
    TdeF

    On Al Gore’s criticism of Donald Trump’s dismissive reaction to the IPCC report

    ‘Friday during an interview on “PBS NewsHour,” former Vice President Al Gore said President Donald Trump’s approach to climate change in light of the United Nations’ new report on the potentially devastating effects of a warming climate was “literally insane.”’

    “telling falsehoods almost as easily as he breathes”. Well, somebody is.

    Plus “the large carbon polluters are his buddies”. That would be the termites, the humans, the cattle, the fish, the birds, giraffes, the ants and koalas, aardvarks and polar bears, bacteria and all living things? All very large carbon polluters. Friends of Donald Trump. You have been warned. Al Gore is your enemy.

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    • #
      Kinky Keith

      Perhaps the most frightening part of that story is that AlGore was Vice President for a time.

      Just think on that.

      KK

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      • #
        PeterS

        Worse than that – he almost became President. After a recount he lost it to G W Bush. If AL Gore became President at the time I suspect things by now would be a lot worse on the CAGW scam.

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        • #
          Yonniestone

          Divide and conquer is a usual tactic of left political systems, Obama did a good job of creating class wars within the USA but it only works if you have the political backing throughout the system that enables the enaction of sabotage, its not only the US that’s inflicted how many times do our politicians offer a self serving solution to a problem they helped create.

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  • #
    Kinky Keith

    Back in the Richard Lindzen thread a section of his work was quoted.

    It related to the so called greenhouse effect and the likely mechanism by which Solar energy could be turned around at ground level and find its way back out blocked by the predominant GHG, water.

    Always an interesting discussion.

    The point that I feel is always left out of consideration is the most obvious one, the Sun.

    Or, put another way, nighttime.

    Considering how cold it can get just before sunrise, and the warming effect of the new Sun it seems to me that we really don’t have a problem with “too much heat” being trapped in the atmosphere and further the mechanism by which heat is dissipated or held is not a controlling factor.

    We are nicely in balance with nature as we are.

    KK

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    • #
      Peter C

      Richard Lindszen effectively declares himself as a lukewarmer and even explains the simplistic Greenhouse Theory.

      Lindzen initially says that the climate system as a complex coupled system of two turbulaent and chaotic fluids which defies simple accurate analysis at the moment , but then goes on to give his version of the Greenhouse theory, including the amount of forcing that a doubling of CO2 should produce (3.7W/m2) from which the climate sensitivity can be calculated. Lindzen thinks that the Earth would be 33C colder if it were not for the Greenhouse effect.

      What he did not say was that the Greenhouse Theory is based on a series of assumptions, such as:
      1. It is assumed that Averaging is ok; – that the taking the simple average of the solar input averaged over the surface of the Earth represents the actual solar input and that the outgoing radiation can also be represented as the output of the average temperature,

      2. It is assumed that he Solar output is close enough to a black body that the SB equation can be used,

      3. It is assumed that the Earth is not quite a black body but can be equated to one by adding a simple emissivity term to the SB equation,

      4. Short term and longer term energy storage in the atmosphere, oceans and land is simply ignored, even though it is an axiom of the theoretical black body that its radiation is a function of temperature alone with no energy storage,

      5. It is assumed that Earth radiant energy escaping by the atmospheric window must be much less than the amount that would escape of there were no greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.

      As far as I know, none of those assumptions has been quantified. The SB equation says heat radiation id a function of T^4 and therefore averaging is not ok.
      Joseph Postma tried to model a more realistic Sun/Earth system and reduced the “greenhouse” effect down from 33C to 11C.
      Alan Siddons and Hans Scheuder found that the moon is warmer than predicted by theory due to heat storage in the lunar soil during the lunar day. The effect is likely much greater in Earth due to the shorter day and the immensely greater heat storage in the air and oceans,

      David Evans introduced an analogy for heat loss compared with flow in water pipes, which partially addresses point 5. If the pipe is not full there is no impediment to heat loss.

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      • #
        Kinky Keith

        Hi Peter,

        I haven’t read Lindzens material, apart from the section you put up before, but the outline you’ve just given is terrific.

        Quite a number of important points such as the SB equation and its very apparent misuse

        The Moon comment probably doesn’t run parallel with the Earth’s cooling because I think that the Earth loses about 4 watts per square metre from its core (subject to correction) while the moon is probably cold inside.

        I suspect that mechanisms of heat transfer, or retention, become irrelevant when the potential for overnight cooling is considered. One way or another, radiation or convection, that energy deposited in the ground during sunlight is going to find its way to that great heat sink in the sky after dark.

        Greenhouses have a solid glass barrier but by and large the height of the atmospheric column above us determines the temperature. Our world is not a greenhouse.

        KK

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        • #
          Curious George

          Current estimate for a geothermal heat averaged over space and time is 90 mW/m2. Don’t take it very seriously; fifteen years ago it was 70 mW/m2.

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          • #
            Kinky Keith

            Thanks George,

            The rough idea in mind was from 50 years ago and as understood then, would only be a rough estimate of world energy loss at the surface.

            I’ve no idea how it was estimated but from your figures it doesn’t seem like it would add to global warming.

            It’ll be a while before Earth’s core freezes.

            KK

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        • #
          Peter C

          Thanks Keith,

          Certainly the Earth does cool at night time and I agree that things are nicely balanced with no need for greenhouse.

          Melbourne is mid latitude and we have just had Friday which was cloud free. We had cumulus during Saturday but Thursday night, Friday, Friday night and Saturday night were cloud free.

          The early morning minimum on Friday was 9.4C, followed by a max of 22.4C and then down to 10.3C early on Saturday morning, so about 12-13C temperature range with a mean of about 16C.

          To see what I mean about the likely effect of heat storage (in the ocean, air and soil), consider what conditions would be like if the Earth really was a Black Body with no heat storage.
          A black body radiates heat at the same rate that it receives it. So when the sun goes down the temperature would quickly drop to 0K (-273C) and stay there until the sun came up the next morning.

          Assuming just for this situation that the earth surface gets the full solar irradiance (1361W/m2). The temperature would rise to 120C at midday and then fall again to -273C at sun set, followed by another 12 hours of night at -273C. The temperature curve is a half sine wave.

          The temperature range between the maximum 120C and the minimum -273 is 393C and the mean temperature over 24 hours would be -174C.

          So not only does heat storage even out the temperature over the course of a day and a night but it also raises the mean temperature by a very large amount.

          It is explained a bit better here:
          http://ilovemycarbondioxide.com/pdf/Greenhouse_Effect_on_the_Moon.pdf

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          • #
            Kinky Keith

            Just had a quick look at the attached pdf.

            He talks about heat storage and that prompted a thought on inputs and outputs.

            The arriving solar energy is UV and by definition has a lot of push.

            Outgoing energy, what’s left of it, is mainly IR which can’t push hard at all. It’s no wonder there is residual energy still left in Earth’s system.

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      • #
        RickWill

        One of the key assumptions that you missed is that the atmosphere reflects a FIXED amount of the incoming SSR. Most of the reflection is from clouds. A change in clouds will obviously affect the SSR reflected but understanding of clouds is primitive.

        Climate models invariably have atmospheric water steadily rising as the temperature rises. The AQUA/MODIS satellite data indicates TWP has declined this century. That is consistent with surface cooling as the UAH temperature data confirms; the last 20 years has a declining temperature trend. Another 10 years should put Climate Change to rest. Hopefully we will get more Trumps and fewer Gores to reduce the economic damage.

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      • #
        Reed Coray

        Peter, good summary. Regarding your third point: “It is assumed that the Earth is not quite a black body but can be equated to one by adding a simple emissivity term to the SB equation.” Not only is the use of a simple emissivity term subject to question, the 33 K temperature difference is obtained by using an emissivity value of 0.7 (albedo of 0.3) which is incorrect and therefore flawed.

        Suppose you have a system that possesses a feature and you want to compute a statistic for a part of that system. For the case of the 33 K situation (a) the system is the sun/earth/earth-atmosphere, (b) the feature is earth atmospheric greenhouse gases, (c) the part of the system being considered is the earth’s surface, and (c) the statistic being considered is the average temperature. Specifically, you want to determine the difference between (i) the average surface temperature in the presence of the feature (atmospheric greenhouse gases) …and… (ii) the average surface temperature in the absence of the feature. You have two ways of determining the value of a statistic: (a) you can measure the value, or (b) you can model the value. The combination of two feature scenarios (with/without greenhouse gases) and two methods of determination (measure/model) leads to four possible ways of obtaining the desired result. (1) (i) Measure the statistic (average surface temperature) in the presence of the feature (atmospheric greenhouse gases), (ii) measure the statistic in the absence of the feature, and (iii) compute the difference; (2) (i) measure the statistic in the presence of the feature, (ii) model the statistic in the absence of the feature, and (iii) compute the difference; (3) (i) model the statistic in the presence of the feature, (ii) measure the statistic in the absence of the feature, and (iii) compute the difference; and (4) (i) model the statistic in the presence of the feature, (ii) model the statistic in the absence of the feature, and (iii) compute the difference. Since there is no practical way to remove greenhouse gases from the earth’s atmosphere, it is impossible to measure the statistic (average surface temperature) in the absence of the feature (atmospheric greenhouse gases). Thus, of the four possible ways of obtaining the desired result, “ways” (1) and (3) are not possible. This leaves “ways” (2) and (4), which both model, not measure the statistic (average surface temperature) in the absence of the feature (atmospheric greenhouse gases), as the only practical “ways” of obtaining the desired result.

        Since in general measurements are better than models and it is possible to measure the average surface temperature, it makes sense to use method (2) instead of method (4) to obtain the desired result. For the purposes of this comment, I assume that the measured average surface temperature is the oft quoted value of 288 K. This leaves us with computing the model average surface temperature in the absence of atmospheric greenhouse gases.

        Now if you’re going to model the average surface temperature in the absence of atmospheric greenhouse gases, all model parameters must represent the situation where greenhouse gases are absent from the atmosphere. Since water vapor is a greenhouse gas, all model parameters must be consistent with the absence of atmospheric greenhouse gases. Since clouds will exist only if water vapor is present, all model parameters must be consistent with a cloudless atmosphere. One parameter used in the model is albedo (one minus the emissivity) of the earth/earth-atmosphere system. The albedo value used to arrive at a 33 K temperature difference is 0.3—i.e., it is assumed that 30% of the solar radiation incident on the earth’s surface is reflected back to space and never enters the earth/earth-atmosphere system. As I understand it, clouds do most of the solar reflection. Thus, the 0.3 albedo value represents an atmosphere with clouds and does NOT represent a cloudless atmosphere. As such, the 0.3 albedo value does NOT represent a greenhouse gasless atmosphere; and therefore, should not be used to model the average surface temperature in the absence of atmospheric greenhouse gases.

        Now, I don’t know what the earth’s albedo value would be in the absence of atmospheric greenhouse gases, but if clouds are the primary source of solar reflection and this source of reflection is removed, then an albedo value nearer 0 is more appropriate than an albedo value of 0.3. Using an albedo value of 0 to model the average surface temperature one gets an energy-rate-equilibrium average surface temperature of 277.2 K, not 255 K. Thus, the difference between the measured average surface temperature in the presence of atmospheric greenhouse gases …and… the model average surface temperature (using an albedo of 0) in the absence of atmospheric greenhouse gases is nearer 11 K than 33 K.

        For a more detailed calculation of the 277.2 K temperature, see comment #2 at URL: http://joannenova.com.au/2015/03/weekend-unleaded/#comments

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        • #
          Peter C

          Thanks Reed.

          A challenging response which I will try to go over again. Also you other referefence.

          Of interest is your calculation of 11C efect of Greenhouse gases which the same that Joseph Postma came up with when he modeled there Earth with night and day and equator and poles instead of an Average Earth!

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      PeterS

      Pareto’s Law states that whatever the political or taxation conditions, income will be distributed in exactly the same way in all countries. In other words, in the end the rich get richer and the poor get poorer, whether a nation is communist, socialist, capitalist, etc.

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        Yonniestone

        In effect the continuation of the serfs and lords construct under the guise of democracy, except in the democracy the major difference being everyone has the freedom to become a lord if they work at it and even if they don’t the freedoms are there to change employment and lifestyle choices.

        A younger friend recently bemoaned the imposed conformity of our society suggesting a mediocre existence from the cradle to the grave, I suggested they look at the way people exist under other systems and be grateful they exist in one that gives so many opportunities to live healthy, happy and long but above all the power to alter aspects of that life peacefully without violent solutions.

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        • #
          yarpos

          I never get this feeling people have that they are controlled and ripped orf. We agree to some rules so we have an ordely society, after that you are really limited by yourself.

          Your IQ, your sense of victimhood, your sense of risk vs reward, courage to take opportunities etc. Many people come to this country with not much, or are born into poor and or difficult circumstances. Some of them go on the have a range of postive outcomes, others dont.

          If you elect to be a drone / victim you most certainly will be. If you chose to try something else, then a range of possibilities start to open up and many will be unknown or not imagined at the start.

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            Yonniestone

            It’s true of the individuals sense of happiness differing due to personal outlook, I’ve met many people that are very happy living what many would consider a boring or empty life but these people are living within their personal abilities and never impose any unnecessary pressure on themselves, comparing a corporate climber stressing and obsessing over executive decisions to a part time worker that can enjoy more down time while keeping in beer and skittles makes you think who has it right.

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          PeterS

          True. Of course I would rather live here in Australia even under an ALP+Green rule than say China. The issue though is given enough time it will be little different. All empires/nations fail in the end if not with a bang then with a whimper. The results are pretty much the same – disaster for all except the few that have left the scene with their riches. Even then most are hunted down and killed for their riches. For now if Shorten becomes PM things won’t be that bad when things crash and burn because we can always vote back the other side provided of course we still have a democratic right to vote and also the other side has truly become so bad it’s totally useless. In that case we will suffer the same sort of ending as any previous empire/nation.

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          Speedy

          Comparisons with North Korea come to mind…

          Cheers,

          Speedy

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  • #
    Michael Reed

    Mike R
    Yep his Dad actually put a number on it ,ie to save the world(from the devastation of climate change) -it was supposed to be 96 months back in 2009.Well he was in pretty good company
    because as Philip .E. Tetlock revealed in his long term study -that experts are no better at predicting or making judgements about the future than mere mortals (or deplorables) like us.However I must apologise because “Chucker” did major in Atmospheric Physics at Trinity college Cambridge-though at the time such studies
    apparently were called History and archaeology.Isn’t it wonderful how (non science trained)people with Arts Degrees love to speak the loudest on the subject of
    AGW.Anyway what do I know (I was one of those science degree nongs who taught the subject for 28 years) but I do have a few unanswered questions on the topic
    like -Does Henrys Law have anything to do with Atmospheric C02?,What are Eddie,Gliesberg and Milankovich cycles ?? ,How did C02 ever become a pollutant?,
    How come the output (Global Circulation Models )of computers is considered be “data”?,Why did C4 plants evolve?(probably nothing to do with recent historically
    low levels of atmospheric C02),How does C02 damage the Great Barrier Reef? And finally how did C02 alter its molecular state to become Carbon -C.I thought carbon
    was the stuff you scraped off burn’t toast-I’ll have to consult a journalist to have that one explained to me -silly old fool that I am and so forth and so on.
    CheersMike Reed

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    Dave in the States

    I usually never willingly watch CNN. However, I was in a public place and somebody left the TV on CNN during the Hurricane Michael coverage. I had to suppress an urge to throw up. Not that this wasn’t a serious storm and many people were greatly affected, but the tone and the language of the coverage was so blatantly an attempt to link the storm to CAGW that it was nauseating.

    It was like a contest to see how many times they could work in the words: catastrophic, historic, and unprecedented in one sentence or paragraph. At one point the weather girl showing a satellite photo started saying that the storm was showing signs of breaking up, only to be interrupted by the anchor saying in effect: “But, but, but, it is unprecedented, and historic that the storm is still a cat 1 after making land fall isn’t it?” She finally threw the anchor a bone and agreed that it has been long time since such a storm maintained hurricane status so far in land, but it wasn’t unprecedented.

    Later she explained the worst of it for most was over after a relatively brief period time and that it was almost dead calm in places minutes later. The anchor was beside himself at that and kept going on how catastrophic the ‘historic” storm was some. Somebody from Americus GA reported to me that he lost a tree in his front yard, but otherwise he, his family, and his home came though it okay.

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      Yonniestone

      Where the MSM and politics are concerned we have the worst of our society in the most influential positions, thankfully the system allows for the removal of these people as long as it remains intact.

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      yarpos

      We were in NYC once and a storm threatened to approach. Media coverage went to DEFCON4 immediately. In one memorable live cross an intrepid reporter did a live cross from the beach holding onto her hat and reporting how the wind was rising. Over her shoulder kids were playing with a beach ball and people were sunbathing. In the end nothing happened.

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      Graeme No.3

      Dave:

      Did he record the tree rings for future AGW scares? A tree that was blown away, surely those tree rings would be unprecedented?

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      Hanrahan

      CNN’s coverage of the Kanye West’s visit to the WH [from reports and clips on youtube] was the most vile, racist I’ve ever heard and Don Lemon starred. The left really do want to keep blacks on the plantation.

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      Curious George

      There is a hilarious video of a Weather Channel reporter swaying in horrible wind gusts of Hurricane Florence, while people are just walking across the street.
      https://twitter.com/gourdnibler/status/1040678572262916096/video/1

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    David Maddison

    I saw this shocking Australian ad on Farcebook. Please let me know what you think. Their claim seems to be that fracking is bad as are fossil fuels and they have technology for “safe” extraction of gas but don’t specify what it is.

    https://www.facebook.com/annscaprospecting/videos/264418814179230/

    Here is their website.

    https://www.annscaprospecting.com/

    Here are some more videos of theirs.

    https://www.annscaprospecting.com/services-technology/the-shameful-truth/

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      Yonniestone

      Had a look, they seem to be a CSG drilling operation but giving a front of being green by promoting well disproven CSG falsehoods as fact and then offering their alternate methods as a safe solution?

      Kind of like a chartered diving business exaggerating the number of shark attacks then promoting their patented shark repellent for customers to use?

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      robert rosicka

      If they were to show a picture of what’s involved in the casing and point out where the wTer table is in comparison to the gas extraction area and do it honestly the argument gets shot down in flames.
      CSG has been demonised for years as has coal mining and use , I remember the hysteria and illogical claims around the proposed coal mine near the Painted desert , the Greentards claimed the company involved were going to drain the Great Artesian Basin to get at the (Brown) coal .
      I immediately called BS to the stupid claim .

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      Another Ian

      DM

      I sent that to a boss driller that I know for comment – none as yet

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        robert rosicka

        He’s probably still laughing , even if it were possible to drain the GAB in one hit I’m sure the states and federal govt might not like the idea .

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    Another Ian

    Wrusssr
    October 13, 2018 at 11:48 am

    For Ms Robinson — a repost (apologies)

    Hurrreeeyy. . . hurrreeeyy. . . hurrreeeyy folks! Step right up to the climate midway! See millions, billions, trillions traded for pigs, pokes, and lies . . . starving polar bears straight from the sands of a sinking arctic . . . snarling snow leopards swept away by melting glaciers . . . gasping Gurkhas in search of water. . . coastal residents on stilts . . . climate grifters juggling semi-intelligent humans . . . grim reapers galloping the streets . . . massive throngs wandering aimlessly with spoon and bowl in search of gruel and something to buy it with . . . You there in the back! Why are you wearing that parka?! Hurrreeeeyy . . . hurrreeeyy folks! . . . see Guinness records for limos and Lear jets parked at annual climate conferences . . . hear tragic tales of total destruction from Oscar Al and his Nobel pals . . . You there on the right! Can you spare us a billion to help save the planet? That’s it! Step right up and empty your pockets on stage . . . our global banking brethren will assist you . . . hurrrreeeyy. . . hurrrreeeeyy. . . hurrrreeeyy! Alternate energy is on . . . the . . . way! Please . . . please be patient! . . . a few billion more is all we need . . . the sun’s gonna shine . . . the wind’s gonna blow . . .”

    https://wattsupwiththat.com/2018/10/13/president-trump-witholding-money-from-climate-research-thats-where-it-hurts/#comment-2489476

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    Hanrahan

    What’s your favourite lightning strike web-site? I had a good one, mentioned it here I think, but lost it when I fitted a new SSHD to my puter.

    We had a doozey of a storm Fri night with one flash/bang so close I checked to big gum in my back yard.

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    Neville

    I’ve checked the HAD Crut 4 temp trends before, but it seems to have changed a lot since Phil Jones’s Q&A with the BBC in 2010, after the Climategate scandal.

    In 2010 he listed 4 warming trends since 1850 and there wasn’t much difference in the trends. The 4 trends were—-

    1860 to 1880- 0.163c dec

    1910 to 1940- 0.150 dec

    1975 to 1998- 0.166 dec

    1975 to 2009- 0.161 dec.

    Today the York Uni tool has the SAME 4 trends for Had 4 Crut at—–

    1860 to 1880- 0.156c dec lower

    1910 to 1940- 0.137 dec lower

    1975 to 1998- 0.191 dec much higher

    1975 to 2009- 0.193 dec. much higher

    So just 8 years after Jones’s BBC Q&A we see both earlier warming trends have been adjusted down and the two later trends have been adjusted up. And people wonder why we don’t trust these temp data-sets?

    And this is the temp data-set that the IPCC uses to try and convince us to waste endless billions $ for zero gain. Who are they trying to fool? And why hasn’t one of their top scientists noticed this and blown the whistle?

    Here’s Dr Jones’s 2010 BBC Q&A. See question A.

    http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/8511670.stm

    Here’s the YORK UNI tool using HAD 4 Crut krig global.

    http://www.ysbl.york.ac.uk/~cowtan/applets/trend/trend.html

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    Another Ian

    “the assembly of existential dread known as the IPCC”

    From Rex Murphy on the IPCC report

    https://nationalpost.com/opinion/rex-murphy-the-un-climate-change-panel-that-cried-wolf-too-often

    Via “Y2Kyoto: Last Gasps”

    http://www.smalldeadanimals.com/index.php/2018/10/13/y2kyoto-ill-miss-our-fevered-planet/#comments

    (Reference repeated from last thread)

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    Sambar

    Somewhat off topic from the threads above. Racing NSW wanted to project horse and jockey colours onto the Sydney Opera house sails. They propably paid a substantial amount of money to do this one off promotion. You know how this works, a business entity spending it’s money to achieve an end, employing people and paying tax. Huge outcry, people enraged, petitions signed, protests and etc. Here in Victoriastan, premier Dan volunteers to GIVE $33 million dollars of taxpayer money to Racing Victoria to boost prize money over the next few years if he wins the next election. Not a peep from the usual suspects. Just another example of the creation of wealth versus the redistribution of the monopoly stuff.

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    el gordo

    Up thread Peter mentioned its important to know the thinking of your enemy. Simon Black is Green and he tells us nothing new, except the Overton theory is worth further discussion.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/commentisfree/2018/oct/13/dear-progressives-craig-kelly-abbott-and-trump-are-making-you-their-stooge

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      Peter C

      Opening the Overton Window! I only heard about it a few months ago.

      It means making a taboo subject something that can actually be talked about in public discussion.

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        el gordo

        The author says when ever a sceptic says something outlandish, don’t repeat it on the interweb even in jest because people may start to think it makes sense.

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    A conundrum to resolve. Using the IPCC’s assumptions not mine :)

    In 2014, the IPCC claimed that the world must stop 2C of warming from happening. This would arise if another 1000 GtCO2 was emitted.
    In round numbers, CO2 had risen by 110 ppm (390 – 280). If ECS = 3.0, 2C arrives with 450 ppm.
    It took 1900 GtCO2 to raise CO2 by 110 ppm = 17.3 GtCO2/ppm
    It will take 1000 GtCO2 to raise CO2 by 60 ppm = 16.7 GtCO2/ppm

    Take the cut-off at 392 ppm (CO2 level in 2011) and the numbers fall out more nicely.

    By these assumptions 1.5C of warming arrives with 400 ppm, which was passed in 2015.
    So how, until last week how could the UNIPCC / UNFCCC / UNEP claim that 1.5C of warming would only be achieved by 600-700 GtCO2? Even from 2012 on it would take less than 140 GtC02.

    I have a long post on how I derive this with the convoluted assumptions.
    https://manicbeancounter.com/2018/10/03/why-cant-i-reconcile-the-emissions-to-achieve-1-5c-or-2c-of-warming/

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      I saved this comment by Max Anacker at Climate Etc 10/o2/2012
      re CO2 levels:

      2012 CO2 level 393.4 ppm (Mauna Loa.) At an exponential growth per
      IPCC scenario, we could get to 485ppm CO2 by 2050.and ~ 640ppm CO2
      by 2,100. At these levels and using logarythmic CO2 temperature we
      could see this much warming by:

      2050; O.36 to o.84c
      2100: o.72 to i.68c

      Well below 2.Oc

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        Hi Beth

        I think you have been had.
        In my posts I have a magic equation, which must be correct as I got it from Dana1981 at Sks. :) More seriously, the maths works

        The temperature rises of 1.5C or 2.0C talked about by the IPCC are relative to about 1850-1880. The latest IPCC SR1.5 report has warming of 0.87 up to until 2015. (That means the SR1.5 report is getting in a big tizzy about >0.6C of additional warming.)
        Taking the implied climate sensitivities of the warming you state, to 2050 it is of the range 1.2 to 2.8 and for 2100 1.0 to 2.4.
        But this is transient climate sensitivities in IPCC-speak. In the AR5 report the forecasts of warming in 2100 (relative to 1850-1870) were for a median value of TCR = 1.8, not ECS = 3.0. For the 2C of warming not to be breached on this basis emissions would have to go zero 2060-2070 and be net negative thereafter. (See UNEP Emissions GAP Report 2014 ES.1).
        Anyway, if these are transient responses, for 2100 you need to multiply by 3.0/1.8. This gives ECS for 2100 range in the range of 1.7 to 4.0. This is not far off the IPCC’s range of 1.5 to 4.5C
        It is not your fault and (maybe) not Max Anacker’s either. The problem lies in the climate community not clearly stating their assumptions. For instance the detail about TCR being used in the emissions scenarios, not ECS, is absent in the emissions scenarios table in the AR5 Synthesis Report SPM, and in a similar table in the full Synthesis Report and in a table in the WG3 SPM. To find it you need to go to Table 6.3 AR5 WG3 Chapter 6 on page 431. Footnote 7. It is in about 7 pt type. The original is a bit clearer than this screenshot.
        https://manicbeancounter.files.wordpress.com/2018/10/ipcc_wg3_ar5_chapter6-p431.jpg

        A bigger issue is that the IPCC can claim climate sensitivities of 3.0 or more for decades, even when the 150 years of temperatures records that (possibly) overstate the warming and on the insupportable assumption that 100% of warming is human caused still indicate ECS less than 2.0.

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    On Monday 8th October, the IPCC changed their assumptions.
    ECS = 3.0 was replaced with ECS = 2.7
    This was partly offset by the changed assumption of 16 GtCO2/ppm instead of 17 GtCO2/ppm.
    Using more precise figures I have calculated that if ECS = 2.7 and the starting level of CO2 is 280 ppm, then to the nearest ppm, 1.5°C of warming results from CO2 levels of 412 ppm and 2.0°C of warming results from CO2 levels of 468 ppm. With CO2 levels in September 2018 at 406 ppm for 2.0°C of warming requires a rise in CO2 ten times greater than for 1.5°C of warming. So how can the IPCC claim that it is only about twice the amount of emissions?
    I have provided a formula in the following post so the more mathematically inclined validate for themselves.
    https://manicbeancounter.com/2018/10/09/ipcc-sr1-5-initial-notes-on-calculations/

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      To help with the conundrum, a clue might be to look at the proportions of CO2 rise to 1.5C as against 2.0C – relative to pre-industrial levels.
      If ECS = 2.7, (412-280)/(468-280) = 132/188 = .70
      In IPCC SR1.5 “Summary for Policymakers” Page 6 look at the proportions on emissions to 2C against 1.5C chart c)

      http://www.ipcc.ch/report/sr15/

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      • #

        Re your IPCC link. Serfs maybe not so good at the math but we get
        the the IPCC Heading for the report, ‘in the context of…’ It’s
        political.

        “an IPCC special report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5c
        above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas
        emissions pathways in the context of strengthening the global
        response to the threat of climate change sustainable development,
        and efforts to eradicate poverty.”

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    Neville

    So much has been distorted by the media about how bad OZ droughts are today, but our rainfall overall is much higher than rainfall in the first 70 ( or say 75 years from 1895) years of the 20 th century. Actually since 1895 because the 5 years to 1900 were mostly in drought as well.

    Here’s the BOM OZ anomaly set at 8 years, from 1900 to 2017. We can see that overall OZ suffered from much lower rainfall up to 1970, but also from 1895 to 1900. In fact the long positive/neutral IOD ( 1992 to 2009) doesn’t appear to show up much in the BOM total OZ rainfall at all.

    http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/climate/change/timeseries.cgi?graph=rranom&area=aus&season=0112&ave_yr=8

    But NSW is a different pattern with the 1900 ( or 1895) to 1950 period showing a very severe rainfall deficiency. In fact the 8 year line is way below average until 1949. But the P/N IOD deficiency does show up in the NSW data. But clearly this has nothing to do with increases in co2 emissions at all.

    But where are the media, pollies and scientists telling us about these facts? There are plenty of lies and half truths and I’ve found that few people really understand the BOM rainfall data. Here’s NSW anomaly graph.

    http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/climate/change/timeseries.cgi?graph=rranom&area=nsw&season=0112&ave_yr=8

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      Dennis

      I disagree with that description of the F-35.

      Similar claims were made about the F-111 swing wing fighter-bomber ordered in the 1960s and it turned out to be the world’s best aircraft of its type and would continue to be today if stealth technology was not invented and F-111 was upgraded to the latest avionics.

      As I understand the present F-35 problem it relates to jet engine failure and one crash resulting. The faulty component has been identified and will be replaced. Earlier computer problems were dealt with but in between time the media made outlandish claims about the aircraft’s future. “Fake News”.

      F-35 is a new generation designated fighter aircraft but vastly different to previous generation fighters such as F-18 Super Hornet and the Growler version of F-18 which has technology jamming equipment similar to F-35. But F-35 offers much more, it is a flying weapons and surveillance platform. It kills enemy aircraft from over the horizon and remains invisible to enemy detection, the so called stealth technology. It has a large computer screen operated by the pilot offering multi-choice options from dealing with enemy aircraft and ground or sea targets, providing intelligence information to controllers, providing a battleground picture from air to ground and much more.

      The two RAAF squadron Leaders who have been training on the first two RAAF F-35 claim it is a spectacular and efficient weapons platform aircraft, not much slower than F-18 Super Hornet but far more capable. The Israel Airforce have expressed being more than just satisfied with their F-35s.

      Collins Class submarines were a media disaster basis for stories but they too were brand new and with resulting issues to overcome. They are now said to be very effective in operational roles. One even successfully penetrated a US carrier battle group and “sank” an aircraft carrier during a joint exercise with the USN.

      No doubt future F-35 next generation aircraft will not carry a pilot and be smaller.

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      • #
        Hanrahan

        The F35 had to be done. The biggest issue is the cost and that was a combination of poor project management, trying to make it all things to all markets and the basic truth that in the US [and Australia] costs always over-run.

        It must be remembered that this is the first hull loss accident. That’s bluddy good!!!!!

        Remember also that legacy fighters like to operate in tandem with the F35 and ask them to hang around even after they have expended their munitions because of their superior target acquisition and sharing capabilities.

        Back to the grounding, there is nothing unusual in that, really, and might be because of Chinese processors with built in malware.

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        Hanrahan

        Collins Class submarines were a media disaster basis for stories but they too were brand new and with resulting issues to overcome. They are now said to be very effective in operational roles. One even successfully penetrated a US carrier battle group and “sank” an aircraft carrier during a joint exercise with the USN.

        It is said that after they photographed the target they cranked up the stereo playing Australia II’s theme, I come from the land down under which would be heard by the opposing destroyers.

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          Greebo

          Given that a number of the officers on those US ships are probably members of the New York Yacht Club, being a fly on the wall would have been priceless.

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    pat

    robert rosicka -
    replying to comment #16 mentions this, but without a link. here is one:

    13 Oct: Japan Times: Fearing blackouts, Kyushu Electric asks solar power generators to suspend generation
    by JIJI, Kyodo
    Kyushu Electric Power Co. on Saturday asked solar power operators in its service area to suspend the generation of electricity to prevent oversupply and potential large-scale blackouts.
    It’s the first request of its kind in Japan in an area other than remote islands.

    Solar power was projected to surge during sunny weather in Kyushu on Saturday and electricity use was expected to fall sharply amid receding demand for air conditioning and reduced operations at factories over the weekend.
    A disruption in the supply-demand balance could result in massive blackouts.
    A prefecture-wide power outage hit Hokkaido last month after Hokkaido Electric Power Co. lost a key power plant during a major quake, sending supply falling sharply below demand.

    Total power demand at 1 p.m. on Saturday was estimated to be 12.5 million kilowatts, but supply was expected to total 12.93 million kilowatts if solar power generation wasn’t suspended.
    To deal with the 430,000-kW surplus, Kyushu Electric on Friday asked solar power operators to suspend electricity generation.
    At a news conference in the city of Fukuoka, where Kyushu Electric is based, company official Hiroshi Wani said, “We are taking all possible measures to keep the supply-demand balance, such as curbing thermal power generation.”

    ***Wani left open the possibility of asking solar power operators to suspend generation in the spring, autumn and during the New Year holiday period, as well as on consecutive holidays, while trying to maintain fairness.
    https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2018/10/13/business/fearing-blackouts-kyushu-electric-ask-solar-power-generators-suspend-generation-saturday/#.W8J-Q-RRfIU

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    pat

    ***Kyushu Electric is trying to close the gap by reducing solar power generation in the hours between 9 a.m. and 4 p.m:

    13 Oct: Nikkei Asian Review: Japan to slash fixed prices for solar power feed-ins
    Government aims to push out generators that bide their time
    by KOSUKE TAKEUCHI; Nikkei staff writers Yuta Takagi and Yukinori Hanada contributed to this article.
    TOKYO — In an overhaul of a feed-in-tariff scheme introduced six years ago, the Japanese government will bring down prices promised to solar power producers in the past and ease the burden on the major power companies required to buy energy from them.

    The aim is to shut down solar power producers that have signed up for the scheme but have yet to actually generate electricity, avoiding the risk of the producers coming online at once, and drowning utility companies in extra burdens.
    The Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry will propose a revision to the system early next week, targeting solar companies approved for the feed-in tariff in fiscal 2012 through fiscal 2014.
    By shutting idle solar producers out, the government hopes to usher in new players ready to start producing power at lower cost

    It is rare for a government to backtrack on a price it has pledged. The original prices were set especially high as part of an effort to promote renewable energy, especially after the 2011 Fukushima nuclear disaster. But the reality was that many companies signed up only to wait for solar panel prices to fall, knowing that they were assured a profitable price to sell power at.

    Under the new rules, any solar power producer that requests a connection to power transmission lines in April 2019 or beyond will be able to sell electricity only at rates from two years prior. Solar producers that initially received approval to sell for 40 yen (36 cents) per kilowatt-hour in fiscal 2012 can only sell for the fiscal 2017 price of 21 yen.
    A company that has not yet started building facilities most likely will not be able to get up and running before the cutoff, and will be forced to sell electricity at a lower rate than it first signed up for.

    Businesses that sign up for the tariff but produce no electricity in effect are locking out new players, since utilities need to reserve a certain amount of transmission capacity for all producers approved for the feed-in tariff. The new rule is meant to push out companies that were sitting on their contracts with no concrete plans to start generating solar power.
    Of the solar power capacity claimed under the program from fiscal 2012 through 2014, when prices were high, around 24,000 megawatts has not actually being used.

    Meanwhile, Kyushu Electric Power on Friday requested that solar power generators halt operations for part of Saturday. The utility has the ability to supply 12,930 MW during peak sunlight hours, but with falling temperatures reducing the need for air conditioning, demand is expected to be only 8,280 MW. Even after sending some of the excess outside the Kyushu region and storing some, it was expected to have 430 MW left over.

    A large imbalance in the supply and demand of electricity can cause widespread blackouts.
    ***Kyushu Electric is trying to close the gap by reducing solar power generation in the hours between 9 a.m. and 4 p.m…

    Solar power has grown in Kyushu, the southernmost of Japan’s four main islands, and met more than 80% of electricity demand in Kyushu Electric’s service area on some days in August.
    https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Environment/Japan-to-slash-fixed-prices-for-solar-power-feed-ins

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      robert rosicka

      Well found Pat , I only came across it on Sky’s outsider program .
      Subsidies and very generous infeed tariffs along with government not asking engineers any questions led to this .
      Sounds familiar doesn’t it ?

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    beowulf

    Tony Heller has a brief retrospective on Cyclone Tracy in Darwin, Christmas Day 1974 when the world was going into an ice age.

    https://realclimatescience.com/2018/10/cyclone-tracy/

    I was a young bloke serving petrol over the school holidays in 1974, when about a week after Christmas a Kombi pulled in to fill up. We all stood around open-mouthed at its appearance. Every window was missing; every light was smashed. It looked as if it had been sandblasted unevenly back to bare metal over much of its surface area, then pounded with a large ballpeen hammer hundreds of times from all directions.

    When I asked the driver what the go was, he replied that they had driven 2,600km in 5 days across the centre of Australia to get the hell out of Darwin, all without a windscreen.

    My old agronomy lecturer was also living in Darwin at the time. He and his wife spent a night of terror lying on top of each other in the bath under a mattress as their house disintegrated around them. The bathroom was in the centre of the house and when they crawled out in the morning, it was the only room of the house mostly intact — no roof but 3 walls almost standing. Apart from the floor and the posts it stood on, the rest of the house was just gone. They beat a hasty retreat south as well.

    There is a photo of a steel power pole from Darwin made of 2 opposing lengths of heavy channel iron with ties welded between. At roughly 18 inches above ground it has been twisted about its vertical axis approximately 270 degrees before it sheared off, more like what you could expect of a tornado. Tracy had a maximum recorded wind speed of 217kph (or 240kph, depending upon the source) but that was before the building with the anemometer blew away. Upper end estimates of the maximum are around 300kph.

    Tracy was rated as a Cat 4 out at sea and probably a Cat 5 when it made landfall. Compare its devastation to the damage of recent cyclones supposedly Cat 4/5, such as the mighty Yasi which was rated as Cat 5 when it made landfall. See if you think the BOM propaganda department has been telling more porkies. We saw them fudging the figures at the time, but the comparative level of destruction — or lack of same — tells the real story.

    Yasi was allegedly a Cat 5 with estimated sustained wind speeds of 205kph and gusts to 285kph just before it hit land. Pictures of the aftermath in the central path (over Cardwell between Townsville and Innisfail) show shallow-rooted trees blown over, boats piled up in the marina and waterfront damage, some homes without roofs, a few older lightly-built homes largely demolished, but most structures with minimal damage. There were no entire districts flattened and torn to shreds like Darwin. Banana plantations were flattened and tree branches littered roads, but most trees were still largely intact; certainly not total skeletons like we see after Tracy. The point is that the destruction was maybe 25% of what we saw after Tracy which was supposedly a weaker storm.

    If we got a real Cat 5 cyclone now the gnashing of teeth would be off-scale.

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      PeterPetrum

      Beowulf, I was fortunate (unfortunate) enough to be on the first plane with civilians on board into Darwin on New Years Day after Tracy hit Darwin five days before. I can personally attest to all you wrote above, and more. Whole streets with no houses standing, just piles of rubble; whole streets with ALL the double metal power poles flattened to the ground; no trees left with any leaves (and in some cases branches) on them, two cars in the swimming pool of the Travelodge and the two holes in the walls on the second floor where they hit; and so on.

      I heard stories of people and, sadly, children cut in half by flying metal sheeting, of children from an orphanage all missing and other harrowing tales from people who survived, terrified and shaken.

      When I see photos of the ‘devastation’ reportedly caused by cyclones and hurricanes recently I always compare them with what I actually saw and experienced in the ten days I spent helping the rescue efforts in Darwin. If trees, especially palms, still have their leaves on and power poles are still upright – it does not count as “unprecedented”, “historic” or any of the other adjectives that are thrown around today.

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        Gee Aye

        Correct. If Darwin was hit by Tracy today it would not be devastated as it is not full of flimsy structures.

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          Peter C

          Thanks Gee Aye.

          I think that you are making a sort of related comment.

          The point that Peter Petrum was making was that the devastation of Darwin was an indication of cyclone strength in a town that had not been hit before.

          Hence we see what a category 5 Cyclone can do, and that is a proper benchmark for comparison with other more recent Cyclones.

          You can explain the relevance of your comment, if you want to.

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            beowulf

            Better building standards certainly account for a lot less destruction in recent times, but building destruction wasn’t the only “measure” of intensity for Tracy.

            Like Peter, I can’t tell which way to interpret your ambiguous comment, but I’ll tell you what, I can’t remember how many cars were picked up and driven through second storey walls by Yasi. The ABC must have forgotten to report that because of its irrelevance to their news ratings. They must have also forgotten to show hundreds of hectares of trees stripped to bare trunks, like a scene from the Somme minus the shell craters, both of which appear to have happened during Tracy. In the absence of impartial BOM record keeping it is not unreasonable to surmise that Tracy was the more intense storm, after all we watched the BOM “disappear” actual instrument readings for Debbie that didn’t accord with their inflated statements about that storm. They are playing sneaky barztards.

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              Peter C

              after all we watched the BOM “disappear” actual instrument readings for Debbie that didn’t accord with their inflated statements about that storm.

              Yes Beowulf.

              I was watching the BOM observations as Cyclone Debbie came on shore. Like you I am convinced that the BOM did disappear wind speed records from Middle Percy Island. I looked the site before I went to bed. When I checked the next morning over an hour of records that I seen had disappeared.

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              People knew Yasi was coming well in advance and garaged their cars. Also it fell in an unpopulated region.

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      Hanrahan

      I have noticed that the anemometers always break at abt. 200 kph now. Allows BOM to make any claim they like.

      But Xmas eve ’71 Townsville was hit by Althea [I have no wish to downplay Tracy but Townsville was the bigger city.] The damage was high in both cases and prompted JCU to do wind-tunnel tests and come up with building codes. They did and all new buildings meet the new codes since. They seem to work, the relatively few east coast storms now mainly damage old buildings and trees. Clearly JCU is overdue to come up with recommendations on tree planting for tropical councils. That would save millions and reduce power outages but JCU is only interested in AGW and the GBR now.

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    Mark M

    “The Liberal party’s biggest con was the idea that reducing emissions could be done without pain and at little cost”

    Australia’s climate idiocracy must end – and there’s no time to waste - Greg Jericho

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/oct/13/australias-climate-idiocracy-must-end-and-theres-no-time-to-waste?CMP=twt_a-environment_b-gdneco

    Wait. What?

    2007, KEVIN RUDD: “… something like $1 per person per year.”

    In terms of the whole economy what the modelling from MMA demonstrates is that the total impact on the economy will be marginal over time.

    That is that they calculate that between now and about 2045 that you’d be looking at a total impact on the economy of somewhere between $600 and $800 million or something in the vicinity of $45 per person over that period of time or something like $1 per person per year.

    http://www.abc.net.au/7.30/rudd-on-the-green-offensive/2678886

    Short memory must have a ..

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    • #
      Dennis

      The Howard Government Kyoto Agreement initiatives to reduce “greenhouse gas emissions” was based on a common sense basis avoiding major economic impact damage.

      And every one of the Kyoto targets was achieved or exceeded based on those measures which the Abbott Government referred to as “direct action”. Australia was one of very few nations that signed the Kyoto Agreement that achieved its goals.

      I have recently learnt that when the Abbott Cabinet discussed the Paris Conference and collectively decided on a 26 per cent reduction commitment it was agreed that Australia could meet that target comfortably. Unfortunately since early in 2015 when the cabinet decision was released to media the bar is being raised.

      Dishonesty should be the key word applied to man-made global warming caused by carbon dioxide hoax.

      Dishonest UN IPCC and dishonest politicians who know full well that the real agenda has nothing to do with environmentalism.

      20

      • #
        robert rosicka

        Not wanting to get into another Howard argument Dennis but exactly what economic damage are you referring to ?

        The economic damage that I can see come from the momentum gained by those on the left from the Kyoto agreement and the subsequent shift to renewables raising electricity prices to the point where industry struggles to keep afloat .

        Mill where I used to work is now completely closed and although power prices wasn’t the whole reason it was a good part of it , how many companies have had to close because of that little seed planted by a so called Conservative PM way back then .

        01

  • #
    pat

    9 Oct: PV Mag: Japan to add 17 GW of new solar by the end of 2020 – Fitch
    by Emiliano Bellini
    The additonal capacity is expected to come from the backlog of projects under Japan’s FIT mechanism and would raise cumulative installations to over 65 GW. In the period 2021-2027, however, the industry is expected to grow at a considerably lower pace, due to grid constraints, land availability and lower prices coming from auctions…

    Fitch’s outlook, however, envisages a strong contraction for the period 2021-2027, where just 14 GW of new installations are expected to be deployed. This slowdown will be mainly due to two well-known issues in the Japanese solar market – grid-constraints and land availability – but also on the back of the transition from FITs to auctions, which will provide a lower than expected outcome…
    https://www.pv-magazine.com/2018/10/09/japan-to-add-17-gw-of-new-solar-by-the-end-of-2020-fitch/

    earlier:

    16 Sept: Nikkei Asian Review: Japan struggles to cut its high solar power costs
    Government and businesses do not see eye to eye on profitability
    by YASUO TAKEUCHI
    With some of the highest solar power costs in the world, Japan introduced an auction system last year to remedy the situation through competition. But that plan hit a stumbling block in the second round of bidding this summer, as it failed to award a single contract to solar farm operators whose desired prices far exceeded government targets…
    https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Environment/Japan-struggles-to-cut-its-high-solar-power-costs

    30

  • #

    Huh!

    Only 140,000GWH.

    I seriously wonder if some journalists have even the first idea about how electrical power is generated, and then go and do some checking before just ‘putting it out there’.

    Here’s the link to that article at the ABC site, and I find it a little odd that an article which only appeared yesterday AM has totally disappeared from their site, as I cannot find a mention of it, scrolling all the way to the bottom of their home page.

    They (the ABC that is) are calling for the closure of 10 of the 16 Plants in that main AEMO coverage area East of the WA order.

    75% to 80% of all the current power generation in that area just shut down. Not even the slightest idea of where any replacement for that huge amount of reliable and constant power would come from in that time frame. (which, even if mentioned, could never be achieved)

    Wind power currently delivers 14000GWH per year and solar plants currently deliver 3000GWH per year.

    Rooftop solar caters only for the Residential consumption, and will never be able to deliver to the other two sectors where there is the vast bulk of consumption, so it has to be wind and solar plants. Good luck with that.

    For the life of me, I just cannot figure out why journalists like this do not go and even attempt to find out at least the barest basics of power generation, if not to see just how ridicul0us their bland statements are.

    Just put it out there.

    Tony.

    190

    • #
      robert rosicka

      Was thinking of you Tony when I put it in yesterday’s thread , I noticed the Brown coal power plants were all on the hit list of 12 that they identified.
      If Labor and the Greens take control of our governments this will become a reality unfortunately although when the blackouts start I can see extension cords being unplugged between the states that have power and the states that rely on others for electricity.

      110

    • #
      Bob

      I did a Google search for the author Michael Slezak. Ex Guardian environmental expert reporter – looked at some of his stories there – he’ll feel right at home at the ABC.

      50

    • #

      I mean, these plants are doing Upgrades to their Units, not just regular maintenance where the Unit is offline for one to three days, but off line for months, Upgrades ….. to extend the life of the Unit and the Plant itself, at a cost of many millions.

      Why would they even bother if they have to close the plant down?

      Tony.

      90

  • #
    pat

    14 Oct: Deccan Herald: Thermal power plants reel under severe coal shortage
    by Ajith Athardy
    Inder Jit Singh, secretary to the coal ministry, had written to Coal India, a public sector undertaking, to take immediate steps to augment the fossil fuel’s supply. In Maharashtra, the Opposition NCP had claimed that several states are facing coal shortages due to diversion of large scale fossil fuel to meet the demands in the poll-bound states— Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan. The three states are being ruled by the BJP…

    In these plants, 17 have stock sufficient for just four days while the rest 13 have stock which may last for less than 7 days.
    As per standards, a thermal power plant must have coal stock for 15 days.
    A few days ago, Indian Captive Power Producers Associations (ICPPA) had sought intervention of the Prime Minister’s Office (PMO) to improve the supply situation…

    The shortage at independent and captive power plants has affected supplies to the grid, forcing huge-power consumers to make a beeline for the exchange, an power ministry official said.
    Shortage of coal and lower production by thermal power plants also led to the power tariff to sky rocket in the spot market.
    On October 3, the tariff touched a decade-high of Rs 18.20 per unit at the spot market.

    ***The reason being that the electricity demand, mainly for evening hours, continues to outstrip supply amid low wind and hydro energy production…
    https://www.deccanherald.com/state/thermal-power-plants-reel-697867.html

    11 Oct: TimesOfIndia: PTI: Expect higher coal imports this year: Care Ratings
    “We continue to expect higher import of coal during the year on the back of improved capacity utilisation in various sectors, including power.
    “We continue to expect higher import of coal during the year in the range of 225-240 million tonnes (MT) vs 208 MT in FY18,” it said in a statement…

    Share of coal from Australia, Indonesia and South Africa stood at 21.8 per cent, 41.8 per cent and 14.8 per cent, respectively.
    “Coal from USA more than doubled year-on-year for the period and constitutes 8 per cent of the total coal imported by India,” it said…
    https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/india-business/expect-higher-coal-imports-this-year-care-ratings/articleshow/66167184.cms

    10

  • #
    pat

    7 Oct: EconomicTimesIndia: PTI: India’s coal import rises 35% to 21.1 million tonnes in September
    India’s coal import increased substantially by 35 per cent to 21.1 million tonnes (MT) in September, as against 15.61 million tonnes in the corresponding month previous fiscal. The rise in imports comes at a time when the captive power plants in the country are grappling with the issue of coal shortages
    Overall, coal and coke imports during the first half of the current fiscal increased by 13.9 per cent to 119.42 MT, compared to 104.81 MT in the April-September period of previous fiscal, mjunction added…
    CEO Vinaya Varma: “With the coal shortage persisting in the power sector, there is high demand for imported material. This, accompanied by a correction in thermal coal prices in the global market, has led to higher imports in September. If other things remain the same, this trend is likely to continue in October”…

    Steam coal imports during the first six months of 2018-19 increased 17.5 per cent to around 82.5 MT, compared to 70.21 MT in the same period previous year, mjunction said…
    After meeting the requirement of power plants, “CPSUs like RINL, Nalco and SAIL (RSP) are to be loaded till the crisis is over”, the letter had said…
    https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/foreign-trade/indias-coal-import-rises-35-to-21-1-million-tonnes-in-september/articleshow/66105510.cms

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    pat

    Reuters unconvincingly trying to cover for the recent China/coal revelations! devil is in the detail:

    12 Oct: Reuters: China coal imports fall sharply in September as weather cools
    by Meng Meng and Aizhu Chen
    China’s coal imports dropped sharply in August from the month before, customs data showed on Friday, after cooler weather crimped demand from utilities ***and as a typhoon disrupted supply…
    Total arrivals last month fell 12 percent from August to the lowest since May at 25.14 million tonnes, data from the General Administration of Customs showed…
    That came after utilities curbed buying as weather cooled earlier than normal in northern China, prompting households and businesses to turn off their air conditioners…

    “The earlier arrival of autumn cooled the coal market in September,” said a trader at state-owned Minmetals.
    “But we are expecting the upcoming winter heating season to bring back demand from utilities,” he added, declining to be identified as he was not authorized to speak with media…

    ***On the supply side, traders said Typhoon Mangkhut in mid-September hit the unloading of coal cargoes at the port of Guangzhou in southern China.

    China’s largest coal port, Qinhuangdao in the northeast, also took temporary steps to restrict coal unloading in September as part of the country’s campaign against pollution.
    Total coal imports in the first nine months of 2018 climbed 12 percent from the same period last year to 228.96 million tonnes, the customs data showed.
    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-economy-trade-coal/china-coal-imports-fall-sharply-in-september-as-weather-cools-idUSKCN1MM0C5

    11 Oct: Reuters: China coal city vows ‘no-coal zones’ in bid to curb pollution
    by David Stanway
    SHANGHAI (Reuters) – Datong, a major coal-producing city in northern China’s Shanxi province, will establish “no-coal zones” in urban districts as part of its efforts to curb pollution, the provincial government said on Thursday.
    PHOTO CAPTION CHIMNEYS/”SMOKE”: FILE PHOTO: A man walks near a coal-fired power plant on the outskirts of Datong, Shanxi province, November 20, 2009.

    The Shanxi government said the restrictions would cover 102 square kilometers (39 square miles) and would include bans on the storage, sale and direct combustion of all kinds of coal.
    ***Coal-fired power and central heating systems will still be permitted…

    It said 16,200 households in Datong would switch to cleaner gas heating this winter and that it had already demolished 3,812 coal-fired boilers…
    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-pollution-coal/china-coal-city-vows-no-coal-zones-in-bid-to-curb-pollution-idUSKCN1ML0PK

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    pat

    from Gulf BBC! first 11min33sec, then Nobel Prize/Nordhaus, etc:

    VIDEO: 25min10sec: 13 Oct: Aljazeera Counting The Cost: The cost of a carbon-free future
    (PRESENTED BY EX-BBC VETERAN ADRIAN FINIGHAN, NOW WITH ALJAZEERA)
    What does the UN’s deafening climate warning mean for businesses, livelihoods and the fossil fuel industry?
    VIDEO PIC: DARK SKY/CHIMNEYS/’SMOKE’

    “The report maps out how much worse it would be if we get to 1.5C, how much worse again if we get to 2C. Some of those numbers are striking,” says Michael Grubb, professor of energy and climate change at University College London.
    “The report estimates that with 1.5C warming we’ll lose something like 70-90 percent of the world’s coral reefs. If it goes up to 2C, then we’re talking about [losing] 99 percent. Those kind of statistics give you a sense of what we’re dealing with, similar to the change of the Arctic ice.”

    Melissa Price, the Australian environment minister, was quick to respond to the report, saying she’s more focused on bringing down electricity prices than phasing out coal. Of all the different types of fossil fuel, coal produces the most carbon dioxide – and Australia is the world’s biggest producer.

    “In terms of any investors listening, my first advice would be, if you’re putting money into coal power stations or mines, you’re taking a huge strategic risk on all fronts,” says Grubb…
    “One of the big changes in the political dynamics in the last 10 years has been the Chinese position. They’re emitting substantially more now than the United States. But what has really shifted the politics in China has been local air pollution,” says Grubb.
    “What we see is a tremendous drive from the central government to try and close down old and inefficient coal power stations, ***put clamps on what had been a massive programme of coal power station construction.”

    ***”Beijing has basically banned coal burning in its regions and is now set to ban petrol-driven cars because of the local air pollution. What I see is a big shift in terms of both its energy policy and its geopolitical positioning to say, ‘Of course, China has to be part of the solution and we intend China to do well by being involved in the emerging clean technology businesses’.”…

    Also on this episode of Counting the Cost:
    Nobel Prize winners:
    The Nobel Prize for economics went to William Nordhaus of Yale University and to Paul Romer of New York University. Nordhaus, who has been called “the father of climate-change economics,” has argued that nations must raise the price of fossil fuels to protect the climate…

    OTHER SEGMENTS including:
    Africa’s cities:
    The UN projects that 10 of the world’s fastest-growing cities over the next 17 years will all be in Africa. Eight African cities are expected to more than double in population size in the next few years…
    But the challenge is being able to manage that population growth and have livable cities,” says Vernon Henderson of the London School of Economics…
    https://www.aljazeera.com/programmes/countingthecost/2018/10/cost-carbon-free-future-181013065725904.html

    behind paywall. Booker would appear to be noticing the FakeNewsMSM covering for China, despite the hundreds more coal-fired power plants. this piece should have come up in searches I’ve done in the past week, but didn’t show up until now. maybe someone can excerpt further:

    7 Oct: UK Telegraph: Christopher Booker: China’s coal plans come as no surprise, so why are media outlets blowing smoke?
    he BBC and the Guardian recently reported on new satellite pictures revealing that China, as easily the world’s largest emitter of CO2, is now busily building so many new coal-fired stations that they will add 259 gigawatts or 25 percent to its coal-fired output, more than that of all US coal-fired power plants combined.

    This “approaching tsunami” of new coal plants is “wildly out of line” with the 2015 Paris climate agreement, reports the Guardian, quoting a new report from the research group Coalswarm. But in no way should this be a surprise. It is just what China announced it intended to do at the time of Paris, when it said it would be peaking its CO2 eemissions by 2030. Calculations by Greenpeace…
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/2018/10/07/chinas-coal-plans-come-no-surprise-media-outlets-blowing-smoke/

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    • #
      RickWill

      There is a theme building in the above posts from pat.

      The dynamics of the electric energy sector globally is poised to cause a significant spike in thermal coal price. Investors view coal mining as a dying industry but the realities of intermittent generation are starting to be widely recognised. It should be obvious to most that building more wind and solar capacity does not reduce the demand for fossil fuel by very much. A lot of the new capacity simply reduces the capacity factors of the existing intermittents. Who needs more power at lunch time when solar is doing its best? The more wind turbines the slower the wind speed. Then there is the inevitable curtailment when wind generation exceeds demand.

      Gas is already expensive and coal will skyrocket as the demand firms even more and there is no new capacity coming on to meet the rising demand.

      Petrol and diesel prices in AUD terms are now consistently the highest ever. A million or two electric cars operating on coal generated electricity and rooftop solar might put some much needed downward pressure on fuel prices. Energy cost for an electric car is about half that for a petrol car at the current prices but the capital cost of the electric car needs to be comparable to make it a worthwhile option.

      20

  • #

    Wixy to Earth can anyone hear me? Hello anyone out there? #@>?><*-==+ing thing doesn't seem to be working! I think the Fretz is broken on my gogomobile.

    40

    • #

      I think the Fretz is broken on my gogomobile.

      Hmm!

      Looks like you’ll need to rant and gran the Phantastran,

      and retrense the Transaxlabiofronic Multiplexification Unit.

      Tony.

      50

    • #
      Yonniestone

      Wixy your’e coming in loud and clear, did you use the Fretz in the correct manner and are you talking about the Dart?

      40

      • #

        Yes, Yes it’s the Dart! The Fretz was functioning as well as a Fretz can and then all hell broke loose after we hit a cloud of Co2. Geez, I tell you that can be nasty.
        “Transaxlabiofronic Multiplexification Unit.” Is that what’s wrong with that Russian thing I just passed? ;-)

        20

        • #
          Yonniestone

          Passed as in eaten or transport?

          Lada and Volga are very popular amongst Russia’s Gynecological community.

          31

          • #
            RickWill

            If you google Lada Niva rear window heater you get half a million hits. It is the most important piece of equipment on a Lada because it is needed to keep hands warm.

            30

    • #
      Greebo

      Err, that’s gee oh gee gee oh.

      00

  • #
    pat

    13 Oct: Townhall: Paul Driessen: The IPCC’s Latest Climate Hysteria
    MIT Emeritus Professor of Atmospheric Physics Richard Lindzen accurately called the hysteria-laden report and press releases from this tunnel-visioned agency “implausible conjecture backed by false evidence and repeated incessantly … to promote the overturn of industrial civilization.”…

    Adding to the pressure for immediate action, the increasingly politicized Nobel committee awarded half of its Prize in Economics to William Nordhaus for his work trying to show that carbon taxes and other pricing mechanisms for fossil fuels are more effective and efficient than direct government controls.
    It’s all just in time for the November US elections and December climate confab in Katowice, Poland…

    A recent, first-ever audit (LINK) found temperature data shortages so severe during the 1800s and early 1900s, especially in the Southern Hemisphere, that the information is useless for analyzing climate trends as fossil fuel use increased. The audit also cites repeated data adjustment errors, a near absence of quality control checks, and patently ridiculous errors: for example, the IPCC reported that a town in Colombia endured three months in 1978 at an average daily temperature of over 80 degrees C (176 F)!

    Yet these data are the foundation for IPCC computer models, horror stories and energy policy demands…READ ON
    https://townhall.com/columnists/pauldriessen/2018/10/13/the-ipccs-latest-climate-hysteria-n2528023

    40

    • #
      RickWill

      Good to see the HadCRUT audit information being more widely reported.

      Need to make certain this information gets to commentators like Andrew Bolt and Terry McCrann.

      10

  • #
    Another Ian

    “Why The Electrification Big Con?”

    https://chiefio.wordpress.com/2018/10/14/why-the-electrification-big-con/

    Chiefio is on a roll today

    30

  • #
    John of Cloverdale, WA, Australia

    With all this bullshit from the government about a drying climate (due to Climate Change), SW Western Australia gets plenty of annual rainfall.
    It is only Government regulations and mismanagement of catchment areas that bugger things up for the people and the farmers.
    As Ronnie Reagan said, ‘the government is not the solution to our problem; government is the problem.’ Thanks to Warwick Hughes for this link.
    Farmers in a town with annual rainfall of 981mm face a shortage of water for irrigation

    60

  • #
    Greebo

    The AEC have been busy, it seems. For around 25 years I have lived in the division of LaTrobe. The MP, Jason Wood, was a Turnbull bedwetter, but I think we had got him trained, as he voted against MT in August. I was just beginning to think that he might just get my vote in the House. Now I find that I’m in Casey, held by Tony Smith, a Turnbull loyalist.

    Grrrr.

    60

  • #
    John of Cloverdale, WA, Australia

    According to Weatherzone, Sydney is struggling to shake off coldest/wettest week this late in year since 1981 (avg 19.1C, 105mm)
    Sydney Daily Summaries
    October 2018

    _Date ______ MIN°C_ Anom°C_ MAX°C_ Anom°C_ mm
    Mon 01/10/2018 10.6 -3.0 20.4 -1.8 0.0
    Tue 02/10/2018 12.5 -1.1 21.5 -0.7 0.0
    Wed 03/10/2018 13.6 +0.0 23.7 +1.5 0.0
    Thu 04/10/2018 16.2 +2.6 16.5 -5.7 2.2
    Fri 05/10/2018 14.3 +0.7 15.6 -6.6 44.4
    Sat 06/10/2018 13.6 +0.0 19.6 -2.6 29.4
    Sun 07/10/2018 12.1 -1.5 17.6 -4.6 2.2
    Mon 08/10/2018 12.8 -0.8 21.1 -1.1 13.8
    Tue 09/10/2018 13.1 -0.5 23.2 +1.0 2.2
    Wed 10/10/2018 16.4 +2.8 17.3 -4.9 0.0
    Thu 11/10/2018 13.4 -0.2 19.3 -2.9 13.4
    Fri 12/10/2018 12.8 -0.8 18.6 -3.6 7.6
    Sat 13/10/2018 12.1 -1.5 20 -2 4.8
    Sun 14/10/2018 13 -1 - - 13

    October 2018 Average 13.3 -0.3 19.6 -2.6
    http://www.weatherzone.com.au/station.jsp?lt=site&lc=66062&list=ds&of=of_a&ot=ot_a&mm=10&yyyy=2018&s

    30

    • #
      el gordo

      The whole south-east is suffering, caused by the blocking high in the Tasman. BoM seasonal forecast for Australia is looking very shaky, because they won’t admit publicly that the subtropical ridge has lost its intensity.

      This is a sign of global cooling, but the Klimatariat is hoping nobody will notice. I want a Royal Commission and I want it now.

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    • #
      Graeme#4

      I averaged both the highs and lows for Perth in September The highs were the same as “normal”, but the lows were significantly 3.5 degrees lower than “normal” (7.5 instead of 11). Of course the BOM never mentioned this.

      10

  • #
    el gordo

    ‘In our “pursuit of perfection” on energy, Australia is denying itself a very good alternative and a big opportunity, Chief Scientist says.’

    Oz

    20

  • #
    Ian Wilson

    People might be interested in my latest post at astroclimateconnection.blogpost.com:

    https://astroclimateconnection.blogspot.com/2018/10/a-case-of-severe-cognitive-dissonance.html

    My prediction is for an El Nino starting sometime around July 2019, followed by a La Nina in 2021.
    I realize that I am sticking my neck out here, but someone has to step forward.

    30

  • #
    pat

    no Larry cards for the Beeb employees. they get badges:

    13 Oct: Daily Mail: BBC issues ‘ally’ badges to heterosexual staff who promote LGBT issues in a bid to tackle its ‘heteronormative culture’
    •Staff at national broadcaster to wear pin badges to show they are ‘LGBT allies’
    •BBC workers told to use the non-binary pronoun ‘they’ instead of ‘he’ or ‘she’
    •Colleagues to EVEN change their email signatures to become more inclusive
    •Review wants to give LGBTQ+ colleagues promotions to create more role models
    By Susie Coen
    James Purnell, the broadcaster’s director of radio and education, said: ‘One of our big challenges is around young audiences.
    ‘In a recent YouGov survey only 51 per cent of 18 to 24-year-olds said they identified as completely heterosexual.
    ‘An organisation that appears to have a heteronormative culture is not one that is going to cut ice with them either as a consumer or an employee.’…
    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6270855/BBC-issues-badges-staff-promote-LGBT-issues-bid-tackle-heteronormative-culture.html

    links to study:

    11 Oct: Reason: Study: 80% of Americans Believe Political Correctness Is a Problem
    “Most members of the ‘exhausted majority,’ and then some, dislike political correctness.”
    by Robby Soave
    ***Except among a tiny minority of far-left Americans, political correctness (P.C.) is deeply unpopular.
    Some 80 percent of people said they viewed P.C. excess as a problem…
    That’s according to a fascinating survey conducted by More in Common, an international research initiative…
    ***Even young people are uncomfortable with it, including 74 percent ages 24 to 29, and 79 percent under age 24. On this particular issue, the woke are in a clear minority across all ages.”
    “Youth isn’t a good proxy for support of political correctness—and it turns out race isn’t, either,” Mounk observes…
    Take a look at the full survey here (LINK)
    https://reason.com/blog/2018/10/11/political-correctness-americans-vote-maj

    NOTE: Hispanics oppose PC by 87 percent; African-Americans by 75 percent.

    10

  • #
    pat

    Youtube: 5min28secs: 12 Oct: Fox News: Candace Owens Rips Media’s ‘Absolutely Despicable’ Coverage of Trump-Kanye Meeting
    Candace Owens, communications director for Turning Point USA, said the mainstream media coverage of President Trump’s meeting with Kanye West has been “absolutely despicable.”
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_Spo-3TyAhk

    20

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    pat

    Youtube: 57secs: Republican Ad: The Left: An Unhinged Mob
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hlMIyae9-ZU&feature=youtu.be

    reminder – updated:

    Updated: Rap Sheet: ***594** Acts of Media-Approved Violence and Harassment Against Trump Supporters
    by John Nolte
    It is open season on Trump supporters, and the media is only fomenting, encouraging, excusing, and hoping for more…
    https://www.breitbart.com/big-journalism/2018/07/05/rap-sheet-acts-of-media-approved-violence-and-harassment-against-trump-supporters/

    30

  • #
    gunbuggy

    I participate in online surveys to get rewarded yes they do work (well the one I use works and I’m often getting $20 gift cards.

    Yesterday I got invited to participate in a survey for the Monash Uni. They wanted to know if Australian television audiences would be receptive to having climate information added to the weather segments. Context of the survey I’ve copied below. I declined participating in the survey because I simply do not watch TV news BULLetins anymore. I can’t trust nor will trust the MSM these days. What would the weather man have to say with regards to the “climate” when they present the weather? I should have just said yes to the survey to see what inane questions were going to be asked and how they were written so it didn’t mater if you answered yes or no the result was in the affirmative.

    Don’t people watch the weather to see what the weather is going to be like in the next day or two do they really give a rats arse about “climate.” Oh due to global warming tomorrows top is going to be 27 which is 2 degrees above average for this time of month and we expect no rain which is 20 mm less than average due to climate change.

    “EXPLANATORY STATEMENT

    Project: A survey of television audiences of Australian weather presenters

    Chief Investigator’s name
    Dr. David Holmes

    Department of Communication and Media

    You are invited to take part in this study. Please read this Explanatory Statement in full before deciding whether or not to participate in this research. If you would like further information regarding any aspect of this project, you are encouraged to contact the researchers via the phone numbers or email addresses listed above.

    What does the research involve?

    The survey seeks to evaluate the receptiveness that Australian television audiences have for adding climate information to weather segments of news bulletins. According to the Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO Australia is experiencing more intense heatwaves, firestorms, floods, cyclones and drought and sea level rises, which are having impacts on health, agriculture, water, forest, coastal regions, transport and infrastructure. Australians are noticing more and more extreme weather, so this survey seeks to collect information about what kinds of climate information audiences would like to see. Are audiences mainly interested in the local impacts on their city or region, or national impacts? And what kinds of historical and projected trends are of most interest? How do audiences prefer the information to be presented, with graphs, diagrams, photographs etc? Which sources do viewers trust the most in delivering such information?
    In taking the survey you will be asked to respond to approximately forty questions, with most of those being multiple choice answers and only two that invite you to add your own comments.

    Why were you chosen for this research?

    You were chosen for this research because, in 2018, television is still the single largest source from where Australians get their news from. As you are a viewer of television news we particularly wanted your views on role of weather presenters in presenting climate information.

    Possible benefits and risks to participants
    There are no risks to participants and all information that is recorded will be completely anonymous.
    All Australians have important decisions to make about how to protect themselves, their family, their community and the entire nation in a world impacted by climate change. Helping Australians understand the risks that climate change brings to them personally and collectively is important in and enabling them to make effective decisions about how best to manage those risks.

    Confidentiality

    The data is anonymous at the point of collection, and the end-user of the data, Monash University, will not be a part of the collection process. Once collected the already anonymous individual responses will be aggregated for use in reports, journal articles and conference papers.

    Storage of data

    Qualitrics will save and store the data initially. The data will then be stored by the Monash Climate Change Communication Research Hub, and stored in secure servers within Monash University and destroyed after 5 years.

    Use of data for other purposes

    Data collected will be published as a report on the website of the Monash Climate Change Communication Research Hub. Findings from the report may be further used in writing academic articles about television weather reporting and climate change communication.

    Only aggregate de-identified data will be used for other projects where University ethics approval has been granted.

    Results

    Results of the findings will be published on the website of the Monash Climate Change Communication Research Hub”

    [Thank you for letting me know! If anyone else gets the chance, do reply and let them know what you think of having climate propaganda based on witchcraft as part of the weather report! - Jo]

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    pat

    11 Oct: Youtube: 2min11sec: Media: Don’t Use the ‘Mob Word’ – SUPERcuts!
    posted by Washington Free Beacon
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tv920dM57IQ

    meanwhile theirABC has found dangerous neo-Nazis everywhere in Australia…especially online!
    references to Nigel Farage, Lauren Southern, MAGA caps, Drain the Swamp; they don’t like carbon-intensity schemes, they love coal!!!

    by Alex Mann, Investigative journalist for ABC’s Background Briefing. Ex @abc730. Ex @triplejhack

    AUDIO: 44min43sec: 14 Oct: ABC Background Briefing: Haircuts and hate: The rise of Australia’s alt-right
    In this episode, Alex Mann investigates how Australia’s alt-right movement is covertly influencing mainstream politics.
    He tracks operatives from a secretive fight club in Sydney to the moment one member was elected to the NSW executive of the Young Nationals.
    He also confronts the men involved and asks what is their vision for Australia, and how far are they willing to go to achieve it?
    http://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/backgroundbriefing/haircuts-and-hate:-inside-the-rise-of-australias-alt-right/10365948

    more on Mann’s Twitter page; interview on another ABC program; of course ABC FB pages are promoting too:

    Twitter: Alex Mann
    https://twitter.com/alexsmann

    13 Oct: ABC: Manifesto reveals alt-right’s plans to go mainstream after ‘infiltration’ of NSW Young Nationals
    Background Briefing By Alex Mann
    The program has also gained access to a private Facebook group in which these same people discuss their manifesto, which includes plans to shake up mainstream politics.
    On Facebook and elsewhere online, more NSW Young Nationals are sharing alt-right talking points, racist in-jokes containing coded references to Hitler, and theories of a global Jewish conspiracy…

    Dr Kaz Ross has been watching these individuals for some time and has access to numerous closed Facebook groups, including The New Guard…
    Dr Ross is in touch with a group of people who monitor right-wing activity using fake Facebook profiles, screenshots and hidden identities…

    Among Nicholas Walker’s posts from the time of the NSW Young Nationals state conference is a photo of a Young Nationals voting card and the words, “Time to make some changes boys”.
    Another friend comments underneath, “Drain the swamp”…
    PHOTO: Photo:Canadian far-right activist Lauren Southern is seen giving the thumbs up in this image on The Lads Society’s Facebook page.
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-10-13/alt-right-plans-shake-up-of-mainstream-politics-in-australia/10368972

    TWEET: Alex Mann, ABC: Opinion: The New Nazis: How the meme-rich world of the internet is a threat to Australia. Great follow on from our Background Briefing. LINK ABC Kaz Ross below:

    14 Oct: ABC: The New Nazis: How the meme-rich world of the internet is a threat in Australia
    By Kaz Ross
    (Dr Kaz Ross is a lecturer at the University of Tasmania)
    Everyone’s Nazi these days, it seems…
    So does Australia have a neo-Nazi problem?
    In short, yes. Look not on the streets but online…
    Less than six months later, visiting alt-right provocateur Canadian Laura Southern wore an “It’s OK to be white” T-shirt as she landed in Australia…
    And Pauline Hanson put up a motion calling for recognition of the “deplorable rise of anti-white racism and attacks on Western civilisation”…
    Instead of looking to Germany, we find the source of the neo-Nazi playbook is David Lane, an American ex-Ku Klux Klan member who formed a white supremacist terror group called The Order…
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-10-14/the-new-nazis:-how-the-world-of-the-internet-is-a-threat/10370928

    SHUT DOWN THE ABC.

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    pat

    comment in moderation.

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    el gordo

    Pacific Decadal Oscillation Positive Outlook

    ‘Bill Patzert, a climatologist at JPL, has not been enthused about the current El Niño conditions—he called it “El Wimpo” to a local newspaper—but he suggested that a larger pattern could be shifting. He pointed to a wedge of warm water off of Mexico and a horseshoe-shaped pattern of cooler waters in the western Pacific near Papua-New Guinea and the Philippines. He also noted that several Kelvin waves appear to be marching across the Central Pacific. All three features hint at changes in another Pacific cycle.’

    NASA

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    pat

    followup to comment in moderation.

    Tucker Carlson on WaPo article insisting there are no leftwing mobs:

    Youtube: 7min46sec: 9 Oct: Fox News: Tucker Carlson: The uncivil left reveals their real strategy
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HcZDAibtPDQ

    10 Oct: Daily Caller: Here Are The People Who Called The Tea Party ‘The M-Word’ — Or Worse
    by Virginia Kruta
    Media outlets are scrambling to get away from the use of the word “mob” to describe the protests that disrupted Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh’s initial Senate Judiciary Committee hearings, his first day seated on the Supreme Court and everything in between.
    What many of them appear to have forgotten is that less than a decade ago, many of them sat silent — or agreed — as protesters aligned with the Tea Party were described in the same terms or worse.
    https://dailycaller.com/2018/10/10/kavanaugh-tea-party-mob-arrests/

    10 Oct: Washington Examiner: CNN hosts are upset that anyone would refer to left-wing protesters as a ‘mob.’ Do they not remember the media’s coverage of the Tea Party?
    by Becket Adams
    Full disclosure: This author is a paid contributor with CNN/HLN (HLN is owned by CNN)
    Do they not remember how the press treated the Tea Party? Judging by their shocked — shocked! — reactions, you’d think both Lemon and Baldwin were out of the country between 2009 and 2012…

    In 2009, for example, the Green Bay Press-Gazette said of a contentious town hall event that, “If the event were a shouting match, the mob won.” Politico reported at the same time: “The Green Bay crowd doesn’t sound as tough as the mob that shouted down Rep. Lloyd Doggett (D-Texas) over the weekend in Austin.” Politico also said in a separate report that: “In this video making the rounds this morning, Rep. Lloyd Doggett (D-Texas), appears to get overrun by an angry mob of anti-health care reform protesters at an event in south Austin.” Doggett himself repeatedly referred to the protesters later as a “ mob.” …

    MSNBC’s Rachel Maddow declared on Aug. 4, 2009, that “corporate lobbying groups” were “doing their part” to oppose the healthcare law by “turning out the mobs, telling them where to go and giving them their scripts.” …
    “When it comes to professionally-organized, fake grassroots rent-a-mob, shutting down what used to be normal small ‘d’ democratic processes, as Congressman Doggett suggested, today’s organized healthcare riots have a long and impressive pedigree. Bush v. Gore, anyone?” the Left’s version of Sean Hannity asked.
    She went on to describe the town hall protesters as a “ mob” seven more times that evening.

    At the outset of a Congress’ fall recess in 2009, the late Ed Schultz warned his viewers that “the Tea Party mobs are back in force.” Politico reported elsewhere that same year that members of Congress complained they were being approached by “angry, sign-carrying mobs.”

    Later, on Mar. 23, 2010, after the successful passage of the Affordable Care Act, a Charleston Gazette editorial declared proudly that the law had “prevailed” against the “frenzied ranting of Tea Party mobs.” Columnist Donald Kaul wrote later that “Republicans aren’t serious people … [they] played to the tea party mob outside, holding up placards like cheerleaders at a homecoming rally.”
    And there’s more, as Commentary’s Noah Rothman pointed out (LINK) Wednesday on Twitter.

    Rolling Stone’s Matt Taibbi wrote in 2010 that the Tea Party “is little more than a weird and disorderly mob…” The Huffington Post reported that year that one Tea Party rally had a “ mob-like atmosphere.”
    I could go on, but you get the picture…

    This isn’t to say that Lemon and Baldwin aren’t entitled to their reactions this week. They’re free to get as angry as they please! This is more to ask of them: Are you new here?

    If they think referring to the Cruz protesters as a “mob” is beyond the pale, one can’t help but ask: Where was this righteous indignation in 2009 through 2012? Or is it as simple as they consider it worse when the “m-word” (I still can’t believe this is a thing Baldwin said with a straight face) is applied to left-wing protesters? …
    https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/cnn-hosts-are-upset-that-anyone-would-refer-to-left-wing-protesters-as-a-mob-do-they-not-remember-the-medias-coverage-of-the-tea-party

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      Hanrahan

      According to CNN there is now an “M” word, which like the “N” word, must not be spoken in polite company.

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    Dave

    Storm in Queensland last week at Yengarie

    Described by the ABC as:

    Supercell Hail Strike
    Scenes of Nuclear Winter
    Apocalyptic wasteland
    Forest floor is littered with the carcasses of small birds
    It looks like a different country
    Total destruction
    Disaster zone

    Amazing story here!

    The best is at the end
    Here

    “You see pictures of a nuclear holocaust. The trees look like that. There’s nothing left of them,”

    He said and heres the photo!
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-10-14/yengarie-trees-stripped-bare-and-broken/10375294

    The ABC seems to make a storm into a NIGHTMARE?
    Part of the Global Warming Alarmists traits?

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    robert rosicka

    If you’re related to Trump and practice legal tax minimisation to reduce your tax debt you have to be guilty of something right ?

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-10-14/jared-kushner-likely-paid-no-income-tax-for-years-documents-show/10374906

    So none at the ABC or Times newspaper is involved in tax minimisation, yeah right .

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    scaper...

    Global cooling sucks!

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    Hanrahan

    I am ceasing to be a fan of the US. I was 3 weeks old at the time of the Coral Sea Battle and coming from a family which sent my father and his two brothers to the Great War, two uncles and my oldest brother to WWII [brother earned his wings but never flew combat, a big bomb saved him from that but he married a WRAAF girl] I and my three brothers also served but only one may have heard an angry shot, depending on how that is defined: He was seconded to a US SeaBee squadron building Da Nang [where they filmed China Beach] The yanks would get angry and fire off shots whenever a spider or other fauna would get into their tents. I believe it was about this time the legend of the drop bears was spawned. As long as the guys told tall tales they drank free.

    This long winded intro can be explained partly by the consumption of a bottle of wine and partly by my desire to explain that I have always had a layman’s interest in war and a respect for the Yanks who did the hard yards in the Pacific. I remember listening to the Sabre V Mig 15 kill ratios on the radio in Korea and believing every word of it.

    Obviously I’m aware of the massive effort the Marines and the Navy fliers made. Yes I’m aware that Kokoda is never mentioned in spite of being the Japanese Army’s first reversal. But it is shocking to think that Europe had been at war for two years before Pearl, and radar was primitive but proven [the Poms' Chain Home radar 18 months earlier saved them in the Battle of Britain] and they were still totally unprepared. OK, they were fast learners.

    But this great nation has gone loco. It seems evenly split, 30% crazies, 30% patriots and the rest totally unaware that the nation is teetering on the brink of chaos. What sane person could call Trump a Nazi? How can a nation’s centres of learning be so committed to socialism [read communism]?

    I’m sorry, they’ve lost me.

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      Greebo

      I have a sinking feeling that you are painting a picture of our future. War has an amazing cleansing effect, rather like excising a cancer. I doubt that humans have grown out of the need for it, sadly. Sheeple, rather like sheep, seem to need to be culled occasionally.

      Please, as a former soldier, with a family background of military folk, I do NOT advocate war, but I do understand it’s inevitability. Will we ever learn?

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    pat

    unbelievable!

    14 Oct: NBC: Democrats can defeat the Trump base. But only if they ditch Chuck Schumer and Nancy Pelosi — and rally female voters
    What the angry white male writing this column wants to know is who will hit back for the Democrats?
    by Howell Raines
    (Howell Raines was executive editor of The New York Times from 2001-2003, editorial page editor from 19903-2001, and prior to that Washington editor, national political correspondent, and London bureau chief. Raines won the Pulitzer Prize for feature writing in 1993 for an article on coming of age in segregated Birmingham)

    My polling cohort, older white men, took a public-relations beating during the Brett Kavanaugh hearings — and I say it’s about time. Never in modern political history have so many been given so much by our culture and yet have been so casual about the health of the Republic.

    Yet the future could hardly look rosier to Republican elders, according to their head cheerleader, President Donald Trump. The man who George Will calls our “feral President” has now announced that he will depict his female critics as an outraged mob and thus hold on to the Republican majority in the House of Representatives come the November midterms…

    Caucasians males over 40 are still calling the shots for the Trump base, and despite being an inelastic minority they could control the 2018 and 2020 elections. That is, unless a new generation of Democratic leaders can rally the female voters who — polling suggests — are deeply displeased by the direction of this country and the behavior of its chief executive.

    Right now, macho Republicans and their older, female enablers have a good chance of prevailing over the 50-plus percent of likely voters who consistently disapprove of Trump, according to running compilations of Real Clear Politics polls…

    So how should Democrats counterpunch the angry mob strategy unveiled this week by the White House? They need a generational coup that fights rage with rage. They need to throw everything into the battle begun by the #Me Too movement ***and the solidly anti-Trump national news media…
    This is not the season for pacifist Democrats…
    https://www.nbcnews.com/think/opinion/democrats-can-defeat-trump-base-only-if-they-ditch-chuck-ncna919841

    Wikipedia: Howell Raines
    Raines was appointed Executive Editor of The Times in September 2001, serving until May 2003. At that time, controversy generated by the reporting scandal related to Jayson Blair led to his dismissal. A Times internal investigation revealed that 36 of the 73 national stories Blair filed with the paper over a six-month period were marred by errors, false datelines or evidence of plagiarism. Raines was faulted for continuing to publish Blair months after the paper’s metro editor, Jonathan Landman, sent him a memo urging him “to stop Jayson from writing for The Times. Right now.”…

    The Blair inquiry also revealed widespread discontent among Times staffers over Raines’ management style, which was described as arbitrary and heavy-handed…
    The paper’s owner, Arthur Ochs Sulzberger, Jr., also conducted an investigation and concluded that Raines had alienated most of the New York and Washington bureaus. Raines’ resignation, along with that of Gerald Boyd, was announced in the June 5, 2003 issue of The Times…

    Raines published an op-ed in the March 14, 2010 edition of The Washington Post that was highly critical of Fox News Channel. He suggested its biased reporting was not sufficiently criticized by legitimate media…
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Howell_Raines

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    .
    ❶①❶①❶①❶①
    ❶①❶①❶①❶①
    ❶①❶①❶①❶①
    ❶①❶①❶①❶①
    .

    How Tamino proved himself wrong.

    Tamino has made it clear, that he is a slowdown, pause, and hiatus, denier.

    But in a recent post, Tamino has made a stupid mistake.

    In his eagerness to show how bad global warming is, Tamino has accidentally acknowledged that the recent slowdown exists.

    https://agree-to-disagree.com/how-tamino-proved-himself-wrong

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    el gordo

    ‘The world’s beer industry could be particularly susceptible to the impacts of climate change as rising temperatures including “heat shocks” reduce barley yields worldwide, international researchers estimate.

    ‘A second Australian favourite may also be at risk, with a visiting US professor saying beef consumption will also have to drop if efforts to restrain global temperatures are to succeed.’

    Hannam / SMH

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