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Within 5 minutes a wave of hot water systems switch on in SA adding 250MW of demand to the grid

We are creatures of habit. Look at the spike caused at 11:32pm as something like 27,000 hot water tanks in South Australia suddenly switch on to use cheaper off-peak electricity. This spike is entirely due to pricing plans. It’s entirely avoidable too, but at least it’s predictable. “Scheduled”.

This peak, allegedly, is only a problem if SA is “islanded” — meaning if it can’t rely on the coal generators in Victoria.

Yesterday people were asking why the South Australian demand was peaking at 1am (and why two hours were strangely missing from that graph). “Hot water” is the answer (at least to the first part).

SA Hot water systems add sudden 250MW of demand at 11:30pm. Graph.

SA Hot water systems add sudden 250MW of demand at 11:30pm. Graph.

This graph comes from the AEMO report in Feb 2016. What follows is their electro-nitty-gritty:

Based on previous experience, and as demonstrated in a separation event on 1 November 2015, maintaining the SA power system in a secure operating state is challenging if there are large changes to the supply-demand balance during a period of islanding.

  • There is a risk of automatic under frequency load shedding if SA is being operated as an island during the hot water demand peak, which occurs at 11:30 pm daily.

Hot water demand peak
Currently the most concerning of these challenges is the hot water demand peak that occurs at 11:30 pm daily. This is a step change increase in demand of approximately 250 MW, shown in Figure 3. This demand peak is controlled by fixed timers and requires considerable effort to reduce the peak through the adjustment of the time clocks at individual premises. While all new meters installed in SA will have randomised time clocks, all existing meters are set to switch at 11:30 pm.

In its revenue proposal for 2015–16 to 2019–20, SA Power Networks, which owns the time clocks associated with the hot water demand, identified this issue in the context of demand and power quality management. SA Power Networks included $0.56M in its augmentation CAPEX proposal to reprogram 27,000 meters to address the hot water demand spikes observed in SA.18 The Australian Energy Regulator (AER) has approved the funding proposal. The funding proposal provides no information on when SA Power Networks will undertake this work. Currently, if SA is operating as an island, at 11:30 pm there will be a large impact on frequency, potentially resulting in under frequency load shedding if frequency control measures are not in place. While this increase in demand is accounted for in the dispatch demand forecast process, which will pre-emptively increase generation in response to the demand peak, this might not be sufficient to control frequency to within the FOS, as the change in demand might be faster than generation can respond.

AEMO has identified a number of potential control measures to minimise the impact of hot water switching in the short term, however it is important to note that during periods of islanded operation, any or all of these options, while limiting the impact, might not prevent under frequency load shedding from occurring during the hot water peak.

These control measures include:

  •   Temporary increase of SA automatic generation control (AGC) reference frequency to above
  • 50 Hz before the hot water peak occurs.
  • Use of the Load Restoration Tool19 to artificially increase demand seen by AEMO’s
    dispatch process, and subsequently increase dispatched generation for a period prior to the
    demand peak.
  • Temporary increase in Raise Regulation FCAS enabled, if it is available.
  • Use of AEMO’s power of direction under NER clause 4.8.9 to request offline fast start generation
    to start up and synchronise at minimum output prior to the hot water peak. This will provide extra
    generation capacity, inertia, and governor response.

Pity the poor supply side grid managers, but at least they know this “ramp up” is coming, like clockwork every day.

REFERENCE

AEMO: Update to Renewables Energy Intergration in South Australia, Feb 2016.

VN:F [1.9.22_1171]
Rating: 9.3/10 (82 votes cast)
Within 5 minutes a wave of hot water systems switch on in SA adding 250MW of demand to the grid, 9.3 out of 10 based on 82 ratings

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190 comments to Within 5 minutes a wave of hot water systems switch on in SA adding 250MW of demand to the grid

  • #
    richard verney

    Wait till we all have to use electric cars.

    Soon off-peak, will become peak demand! Now if only the sun shone at night!!

    442

    • #
      yarpos

      Well the suns always shining somewhere so we just need some Unobtainium and Unicorns to connect it all together. I was at a lunch the other day and was stunned by some of the discussion around renewables, people really think it all works easily and the sooner coal and gas are gone the better. Apparently you just wave your hands and mutter solar/wind/battery and its a done deal.

      532

      • #
        KinkyKeith

        Frightening.

        162

      • #
        Dennis

        Don’t worry, the usual accountants will work it out with a pencil

        152

      • #
        Roy Hogue

        Apparently you just wave your hands and mutter solar/wind/battery and its a done deal.

        When I heard an engineer say he couldn’t believe his miles per gallon would go down when driving at 90 MPH relative to 65 I knew we were in trouble. Of course, he was a civil engineer. But wait a minute, he studied the same physics I did.

        Most in this world study no significant physics at all. It’s Bill Nye or nothing. So ignorance is the rule, not the exception. And that’s what’s killing us.

        250

        • #
          richard verney

          When I heard an engineer say he couldn’t believe his miles per gallon would go down when driving at 90 MPH relative to 65 I knew we were in trouble.

          And this is one of the troubles with backup generation which is required when the wind is not blowing. A lot of people think that because wind energy, on average, produces say some 30% of nameplate capacity, then backup generation is required from fossil fuel generation only for 70% of the time, such that this must mean that wind saves some 30% of CO2 emissions.

          Most people do not appreciate that the backup generation that is needed has to be operated in ramp up/ramp down mode since there are times when wind produces 0% or just 5% of nameplate capacity, then up to 45%, then back to 17% and then up to 38%, and back to 22% etc etc.

          This type of operation means that much energy is consumed (with resultant CO2 emissions) simply in the process of overcoming the inertia of the generator. Energy that was consumed in getting the generator up to speed to produce all the fill in when say wind is producing only 8% of nameplate capacity is lost when wind ramps up to 48% of nameplate capacity and the fill in generation is ramped down to 52% etc.

          The upshot of this type of operation is to compare the fuel consumption of your car when driving at a steady 60mph on a motorway/freeway and compare it to when it is used in a city/urban environment.

          In a car, the vehicle consumes less fuel and hence produces less CO2 when it drives 100 miles on a motorway at a steady 60mph, when compared to driving just 70 miles (ie., 100 miles less 30% effective average nameplate capacity) in urban/city environments.

          Most people do not fully appreciate the implications of this, and this is why wind does not significantly reduce CO2 emissions even though on average it effectively provides 30% of its nameplate capacity.(as can be seen from Germany where CO2 from electricity production has not fallen since 2009, and has in fact increased). One might as well have a modern gas powered generator running 24/7 at the steady rate of its designed criteria. this is where it is most fuel efficient.

          I do not understand how so many engineers/scientists do not understand some very basic principles.

          One sees the lack of understanding with the EU. The EU are actively considering placing a ban on 3kWh kettles, and reducing the maximum power to just 1.8 kWh as a means to address climate change. Someone with some scientific background must be advising them, and it appears that that person does not know that the energy required to boil water depends upon the ambient temperature and the mass of water, and has nothing to do with the input power of the immersion heater.

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          • #
            AndyG55

            Because of heat losses to the atmosphere, it is pretty certain the 1.8kWh coil will use MORE electricity to boil the water, than the 3kWh one does.

            Lower it far enough.. you may not be able to boil the water at all.

            150

          • #
            KinkyKeith

            Outstanding comment Richard.

            50

          • #
            sceptic56109

            I was wondering where all the studies were to describe in breathless detail how much fossil fuel was saved by renewable energy, and now I know why I haven’t seen any. Renewables only come close to producing the power it took to build them, so there are no studies showing a reduction in “carbon footprint”.

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          • #
            OriginalSteve

            Sometimes I think people are just plain ignorant ( not stupid ) and dont understand the physics. If you could describe it to them the penny would drop. In fact the whole CAGW nonsense would disappear if you could penetrate the emotive hype that drives it in the media.

            That said, there seems to be a malicious high level intelligence that drives the EU and its energy policy. With all the technical resources the EU has at its disposal, there is no way they could *not* know what they are doing.

            The EU is the small scale test of global govt, so they are working all the bugs out now, before the main show ( the UN ) eventually confiscates all nukes and is the only game in town. It will come.

            80

            • #
              clive hoskin

              WW3 will happen long before the UN get to play with their toys,IF they survive.There are lots of well armed”citizens” who won’t stand by and let it happen.

              20

              • #
                OriginalSteve

                The USA has 100s of millions of firearms, pity nay fool who tries to invade the USA.

                Even if these idiots nuked a few US cities to demoralize the population, americans would still fight to the last man against anyone who invaded afterward…..

                Its a losing proposition.

                30

            • #
              KinkyKeith

              Malicious high level intelligence.

              Black Hand.

              Profit for those in power and slavery for the serfs.

              20

          • #

            richard verney mentions something very important here: (my bolding here)

            Most people do not appreciate that the backup generation that is needed has to be operated in ramp up/ramp down mode…..

            This is where a lot of people don’t realise what is meant by this.

            It’s not the fast operating gas turbines which operate in ramp up/ramp down mode, because those OCGT’s are turned on deliver their maximum power for all the time that they are on and then turned off, sometimes for three hours plus, sometimes for just an hour or so. Those CCGT gas fired plants are in operation for longer periods are ramped up and down a little, but what does get ramped up and down, contrary to a lot of people’s thinking are those large scale coal fired power plants, with single Units of 500MW Plus, so that in effect, large scale coal fired power is used as Load Following, again, something which is the exact opposite of what people think, that coal fired power starts up, and goes flat out delivering its maximum power ALL the time, and that is just NOT the case.

            To show you this, you’re all going to have to do five minutes work yourselves, and it’s not too hard a task I’m setting.

            Go to this link, and this is the fossil fuel sub-site at the Aneroid Wind Site.

            When the link opens, go to the second image down, that graph, and click on the MW button at top right of that image, and note from that image that fossil fuels (all of them combined) actually do follow the load exactly.

            Then, scroll to the bottom of the image where it lists in their coded and coloured information all the Units at every fossil fuelled power plant in Australia. At the bottom of that list ….. UNTICK the total, subtotal, and under that, all the State buttons, so now, that graph is totally blank.

            Now scroll to the top of that coded coloured list and now tick just those first four boxes, BW01/02/03/04, and those are the four Units at Bayswater power plant. Then back at the bottom tick the SUBTOTAL box.

            Now, as you can see, Bayswater power plant is in fact following the Load , as the power delivery curve there now closely matches the actual Load Curve for power consumption with the two peaks at around 6PM and mid morning (the bottom horizontal axis time reference) with its lowest power generation at around the Minimum Base Load requirement at 3 to 4 AM.

            The same applies for most large scale coal fired power across the State, and if you just select all the coal fired Units, that subtotal curve evens out to (almost) exactly follow the Load curve for actual consumption.

            So, it’s those large scale coal fired plants which are the ones ramping up and ramping down, and, as the largest emitters of CO2 (if that was EVER a problem) then they are in fact emitting more CO2 than they would be by running flat out all the time.

            The only exception is Victoria, where, since the closure of Hazelwood, the remaining coal fired plants have virtually been running at their maximum since it closed.

            Tony.

            50

            • #
              James Bradley

              Tony,

              Sorry for the OT, but I am having a fb debate with Simon Holmes a Court atm. I brought up his Hepburn Wind Financial Statement last year where 1/3 of it’s total income was from energy sales and 2/3 of its income was from compulsory LGC purchases by the networks. I implied they are calculated on nameplate and the difference between that and CF and therefore LGC’s subsidise renewables for energy they can never generate – it was funny, but now after many months of tooing and froing he asked me to give hiom a straight question. So I asked him how his LGC’s are calculated. I’m kind of lost now because information about how renewable generators calculate LGC’s seems obscured. Can you clarify for me so I can verify his information if he gets back to me? Many thanks.

              00

          • #
            NuThink

            One of the issues that the UK has with regard to kettles, is that at the time East Enders finishes in the evening, many people want their cuppa so they switch on the kettle.

            The first of two episodes broadcast last night was watched by 10.84 million with a peak of 11.9 million. While the second episode drew in an audience of 10.3 million and peaked at 11.2 million, according to ratings specialists overnights.tv.Feb 20, 2015

            So even just one million kettles switching on at about the same time puts a 1 to 2 giga Watt load on for a few minutes. So 5 million would be 5 to 10 giga Watt, so a massive spike. The person responsible for the grid has to watch TV and turns on many pumped storage systems just in time, and pulls in power from France nuclear and elsewhere for a short time. So a 3 kW kettle will certainly add to that.

            I don’t know how many viewers per household, so the number of viewers does not reflect the number of kettles.

            Another system that I have seen operate is to remotely turn off hot water systems as the cooking starts in the evening, This was controlled from a substation by sending a tone down the line to turn the hot water system on and off as required. This was already in the 1950s. It did not just use time so was more flexible.

            https://www.clipsal.com/Trade/Support/Notes/Ripple

            00

          • #
            Roy Hogue

            That kind of thing has begun to happen here. Only tankless water heaters are now permitted in new construction along with a lot of regulation about insulation, etc.

            You cannot buy a coffee maker that doesn’t turn itself off at the end of a timeout period — as if I didn’t know enough to turn it off when I pour the last cup.

            Etc., etc., etc.

            We worry about the last tiny watt of energy usage like it mattered as much as gigawatts going to waste in a perpetual short circuit.

            00

        • #
          Rereke Whakaaro

          When I heard an engineer say he couldn’t believe his miles per gallon would go down when driving at 90 MPH relative to 65 I knew we were in trouble.

          I don’t see what your problem is. It stands to reason, that if you drive faster, you must get to where you are going, in a shorter time. Therefore, you must use less unicorn burps, overall. That is all part of the new-age, group-think-logic, according to Gaia.

          70

          • #
            Roy Hogue

            If you say so, RW. He’s my brother-in-law, now retired from a long career in which he rose to manage an entire district of the Army Corps of Engineers, so in the interest of not starting a fight over it, I stayed silent. I wonder what would have happened if I’d said something.

            Unicorn burps indeed. :-)

            00

        • #
          RickWill

          You should suggest to the engineer that he seeks damages from his college for negligence for his incompetent education.

          A civil engineer should know that drag force increases closely to the square of the wind speed.

          50

          • #

            “A civil engineer should know that drag force increases closely to the square of the wind speed.”

            That is only for “force” (push) on building side due to low velocity ‘wind’, so M/gal should be calcuable. Miles per gallon when approaching the speed of sound in atmosphere get quite weird. :-)

            30

        • #

          “So ignorance is the rule, not the exception. And that’s what’s killing us.”

          Indeed! The ‘ignorant’ are but those that ignore the ‘obvious’. Why so many semi-ignorant want to emulate the academic climate clowns, is beond knowledge! :-)

          50

        • #
          Alfred

          As a qualified civil engineer, I am rather surprised at this guy’s ignorance. When I studied civil engineering – 1968-71 – we had to study things like thermodynamics, mechanics and electrical engineering with students from other engineering disciplines. We had a good general education.

          I suspect that a lot of that has been dropped in favour of “Green” subjects like environment and fake renewable energy.

          Here is what my old college has come up with – a wheeze to get some more money from the government of the UK:

          “Our goal is to help investors and policymakers overcome the current lack of clarity about risk and return in emerging clean technology sectors.”

          https://www.imperial.ac.uk/business-school/research/management/management-research/projects-and-centres/centre-for-climate-finance-and-investment/firm-power-parity/

          They even claim that RE will be economic in London – by 2030 :)

          “Residential renewable power generation and storage will become profitable for London households by 2030.”

          http://www3.imperial.ac.uk/newsandeventspggrp/imperialcollege/newssummary/news_25-9-2017-11-44-12

          The sheer madness that is sweeping academia is truly breathtaking.

          90

          • #
            OriginalSteve

            Its all about the money…..

            Imagine the academics who have sold out, and made themselves look like monkeys, all for a few bucks of grant money…..

            20

          • #
            NuThink

            So correct, I am appalled with many of the young engineers who come out of uni with poor or no understanding of engineering. A young engineer (person with a Uni degree that I mentored last year) had absolutely no idea how a car engine worked. Had no idea about pistons or conrods or valves or what 4 stroke or 2 stroke meant. I could not believe it. But they are out there demanding high wages.

            00

      • #
        bobl

        Geez, everyone knows that the only solar panels that work at night are made from unicorn horn wafers. Expect the greenies to be out in force protesting the indiscriminate slaying of unicorns for this horrific trade…

        90

        • #
          ivan

          Not quite bobl, the Spanish worked out that if you have a large bank of high power spot lights aimed at the solar panels and run the spot lights on off peak power at night the resultant subsidies more than pay for the power used – in fact you make a very nice profit.

          Unfortunately the Spanish authorities got wind of this and removed the subsidies for solar generation.

          110

          • #
            OriginalSteve

            The firebrigades also worked this out when a house with solar PV cathes fire at night – the fire truck spot lighst activate the solar panels, so now if ahouse has PV they just have to let it burn…..whoops….own goal….

            22

          • #
            ian hilliar

            Did they not use diesel generators to power the flood lights??

            00

        • #

          What can be made from politician fingernails after we laughingly rip them from their body? :-(

          10

      • #

        Unobtainium Dioxide is quite ‘whiter than white’ (replaces cheap titanium dioxide)! What you need for your Unicorn’s hoves is my expensium coating, made with other proprietary material, of course. :-)

        41

    • #
      Ted O'Brien.

      Actually, it’s not that hard. Don’t ever expect to see cars lined up at power points. Batteries will be swappable, taken out of the cars for charging. So this could be just as good as Elon Musk’s South Australian setup. But not much better.

      54

      • #
        Bright Red

        So each car will need two of a an expensive component greatly increasing the price gap between it and conventional cars. Not to mention the cost of the swapping equipment. By all accounts battery swaping is a looser.

        110

      • #
        Graeme#4

        Yeah sure Ted, all 540kgs in a whopping big tray. That’s going to be easy to do isn’t it? Sheesh…

        90

      • #
        Rereke Whakaaro

        So Ted, let me see if I understand what you are saying.

        I drive up, in my brand new, shiny, electric vehicle, to get a charge, and the charging station attendant comes over, and takes out all of my brand-new batteries, and swaps them for a set of batteries that have been stored in a pig pen (which was also occupied by a sow in heat), for a few weeks.

        How do you think I would react to that?

        60

        • #
          KinkyKeith

          Well put.

          30

        • #
          Ted O'Brien.

          Just like the barbeque’s gas bottle, with lifting/rolling gear in use. First design your setup.

          00

          • #
            Graeme #4

            Poor analogy Ted. When exchanging gas bottles, the company can afford to discard the occasional bottle that has exceeded its specified lifetime. With the huge cost of the car’s battery bank (Nobody in their right mind buys a second-hand Tesla) , nobody could afford to cover the cost of discarding a battery pack that won’t hold a charge. Tesla looked at this a few years ago then quietly discarded the idea, for sound economic reasons.

            10

      • #
        clive hoskin

        Didn’t Elon Musk try that scam out,a couple of years ago?Something about”Drive-in”and”Swap and Go”batteries?

        30

        • #
          Graeme #4

          Yes, and just as quickly dropped the idea. Currently the battery tray is an integral part of the drivetrain.

          00

  • #
    KinkyKeith

    Just more evidence of complacency.

    Do other states have the same problem or have they been proactive and spread the starts?

    81

  • #
    TdeF

    Thanks. Hot Water systems! Amazing.

    This all goes back to the 1950s where electricity in the homes was new, coal plants needed to be built and evening out the day/night load was a huge issue. The State governments solved the problem with half price night time hot water, a novelty for households. Few people had hot water on tap. It was a revolution.

    Then in the 1990s a similar thing with the promotion of in slab night time electric heating. Since then advances in electronics and distribution and also the introduction of Alcoa to soak up excess night time electricity.

    So now we have excess lunchtime solar and a huge night time peak in demand to use the coal generators which no longer exist? South Australia is certainly not the Smart State.

    Surely they could just change the timers to heat when the sun is peaking, like the old solar hot water systems? The old rooftop solar would be a lot cheaper too. Looks like roof top solar is just another pink batts scheme then.

    Then South Australia is a state where new transmission towers blow over in strong gusts, never exceeding 120km/hr and premier Weatherill is too busy blowing up power stations and building giant batteries and public service exclusive solar to give any real thought to the insanity of importing power from Victoria at 1am to heat water, which could be heated so cheaply with a now ancient simple and far cheaper system.

    462

    • #
      Dennis

      Households could go back the old party line telephone system to negotiate with other households connected as to who uses power when.

      202

    • #
      RobK

      It takes a special kind of incompetence to arrange such a sequence of events. How utterly embarrassing.
      So the RenewEconomy web site claim of 40 odd % solar is effectively BS because 30 odd % has been load shifted off peak when the sun don’t shine. Clowns.
      Separately,this load shifting to off-peak would also include commercial coolrooms and freezers, many have an off peak cycle several degrees colder than standard.

      212

      • #
        TdeF

        Really, if the extra 20% of the grid is only being used to heat water at midnight, why not go back to the 1970s and put in black plastic hot water heaters on every rooftop. We have gone back to windmills and solar, why not use the cheapest water heating system ever invented in one of the world’s sunniest locations? Why buy electricity at all to heat water?

        142

        • #
          RobK

          This explanation of synchronized off peak starts does explain the 4am trough in demand Tony often mentions. By then much of the off peak cycles started at 11.30pm would be well an truely finished doing their cycle. The trick would be to estimate the load cycle to finish just before peak cost starts(..at least for some of the equipment)

          71

        • #
          Geoff Sherrington

          TdeF,
          About 1954 my Dad got CSIRO plans and we helped him build rooftop solar hot water. There was a storage tank 44 gallon drum size that he thoughtfully insulated with surplus army greatcoats.
          The location was tropical Townsville. Sunlight entered about 3 sq m of glass panels then hit a matt painted copper sheet with coils of copper pipe braised on. The storage tank later got an added thermostat controlled electrical immersion heater for days when cloud stopped the water heating enough, which was about 30% of winter days.
          The system reduced the power bills but electricity from coal was cheap in those days relative to salary and no so pressing need to change to solar. But the feedback he and others gave to CSIRO should have informed policy makers looking at national economics. Probably did, given there was no 1950s surge in solar. That was when CSIRO was gaining kudos for fine work, a reason my first graduate job application was to CSIRO.
          But logic and clear thought went to pieces decades ago when people started to get duped by Green blob propaganda. Geoff

          250

          • #
            richard verney

            Solar thermal heating is very cost effective.

            In Spain, the hot water tank is on the roof above the collectors. Natural convection currents circulate the water in the roof top tank/collector.

            A very simple system, and presumably the thinking is that the tanks absorbs as much solar as it loses by radiation, alternatively there is a layer of insulation inside the tank itself such that no outer lagging is required.

            20

            • #
              AndyG55

              Unfortunately, because its a radiative gas, the CO2 will provide BETTER conduction than normal air. This has been proven in studies using different gasses in double glazing of windows.

              20

            • #
              AndyG55

              oops. That was meant as a reply to Reed, next post down !!

              10

            • #
              DavidH

              Richard … where in Spain is that? Because where I lived (Madrid and Castilla y Leon) *everybody* had instant gas heaters, no tanks in sight. We lived in a “chalet” = townhouse, not an apartment block, but same thing even for us. Perhaps this was the south you mean, Andalucia? Despite Spain’s reputation for heat, I don’t recall virtually any rooftop solar. It’s colder in most of Spain (and I mean sub freezing) longer in a year than it is stiflingly hot. I’m not a warmest troll here – I really want to know what part of Spain you mean.

              00

          • #
            Alfred

            “when cloud stopped the water heating enough, which was about 30% of winter days”

            Nowadays, it is reasonably cheap to have vacuum collectors which work when it is cloudy – but there must be sun behind the clouds. :)

            “FLAT PLATE VS. EVACUATED TUBE SOLAR HOT WATER COLLECTORS”

            https://www.energymatters.com.au/solar-hot-water/flat-vs-evacuated/

            Frankly, with little effort, the price of these systems can be brought down a lot. No rare earths of complex technology is needed.

            50

      • #
        Reed Coray

        Again, the solution is simple–change all hot water pipes from single-walled to double-walled and fill the space between the walls with the heat-trapping gas CO2. The water can then be heated at any time and stored in the pipes for use when needed. This solution has the added advantage of providing a means of sequestering all that nasty CO2. This solution proudly brought to you by the hard-workers at the Australian BoM through a grant from the UN IPCC.

        50

        • #
          AndyG55

          Unfortunately, because its a radiative gas, the CO2 will provide BETTER conduction than normal air. This has been proven in studies using different gasses in double glazing of windows.

          21

          • #
            Peter C

            Reed’s comment is ironic.

            Do you have a reference for double glazing studies using different gases? I think N2 is commonly used.

            10

          • #

            More massive CO2 molecule with lower velocity, will provide LESSER conduction than normal air. This has been proven in studies using different gasses in double glazing of windows. Fast He has the highest thermal conductivity. :-)

            10

        • #

          Reed Coray,
          Need we compete for ‘most weird’? Why not found\find a University to do dat? :-)

          20

    • #
      DaveR

      Ted, there really is no business case anymore for aluminium smelters in Australia, all built on the back of cheap electricity rom coal (and hydro in Tas). With the current supply madness, they will all probably close, and free up some MW.

      90

      • #
        richard verney

        But why get rid of the aluminum industry?

        Aluminum is needed for all the new electric cars, since it is light and not as expensive as some carbon fibre composite. Given the weight of batteries, electric cars really require a very light body.

        70

      • #
        Ted O'Brien.

        They already did. And I can’t see any of those remaining surviving in the present scenario. Do you really believe that that is a good thing?

        What will the price of aluminum in Australia be in ten years time?

        10

      • #

        Australia currently has four Aluminium Smelters. The Bell Bay Tasmania is a smaller on and Point Henry is only operating at 25% of what it once did.

        That leaves the big two, Boyne Island at Gladstone and Tomago near Newcastle.

        At full operation with the all the potlines in operation Boyne Island consumes (around) 900MW of power, and even so, that is only 5% of the Base Load, so with Tomago, there’s around 10% of the overall Base Load for Australia.

        China currently has, wait for this, 120 Aluminium Smelters with around 20 or so of them larger than Boyne Island, our largest one.

        It would seem China is sort of cornering the market on Aluminium.

        World consumption of Aluminium is approx 70 Million Tonnes per year, of which Australia provides around 1.9%.

        Tony.

        50

    • #
      DaveR

      Ted, there really is no business case anymore for aluminium smelters in Australia, all built on the back of cheap electricity from coal (and hydro in Tas). With the current supply madness, they will all probably close, and free up some MW.

      40

      • #
        KinkyKeith

        Another two or three thousand direct jobs gone.

        They wont be able to afford electricity.

        110

      • #
        David Maddison

        Actually, there’s no longer a business case for any business in Australia anymore.

        221

        • #
          RickWill

          Installing rooftop solar systems and batteries is going strong.

          Wind generators have suffered somewhat with questions over requirements for dispatchable output.

          Tourism is also doing well. China has just overtaken NZ as our largest source of tourism income.

          50

    • #
      Ted O'Brien.

      Some off peak systems may still switch by the clock, but that technology is fifty years out of date. It was in the 1960s that the Upper Hunter County Council at Muswellbrook introduced what they called a frequency injection system, with which they could send a set of signals down the supply line to turn on or off 35 seta of switches. Knowing what the demand was for each set of switches, they could regulate demand to minimise the supply.

      50

      • #
        Ted O'Brien.

        Was called to dinner. With modern technology that 35 would be now unlimited.

        In those days the distributor (the County a council) had to pay the generator (The NSW Electricity Commission) each month at the peak demand rate for the month. So the incentive was very high to spread the load as much as possible.

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      • #
        D. J. Hawkins

        Switching the clock won’t help much, unless you really spread the load. It’s been some while since I dealt with an electric hot water heater, but it took about 1/2 an hour or more to get the water up to temperature. A shift of a few minutes may lower the peak demand at turn on, but not the total GW-hr needed to heat all that water.

        00

    • #

      “South Australia is certainly not the Smart State.”

      Agree! With todays world; hunkering down behind bushes, eating berries, peering out at else may be the smart state! Somewhat north of SA…. OK ossifer, what is the kids name? :-)

      10

    • #
      NuThink

      South Australia is certainly not the Smart State, but the smarting state.

      00

  • #
    el gordo

    ‘… automatic under frequency load shedding …’

    But … but … does increase power prices for consumers?

    51

  • #

    An acquaintance has a leetle ‘synthetic inertia’ gizmo which reads the AC freq and steps the effective power per cycle down to the output load if freq falls below set limits. Assuming freq is still a good guide to demand in SA (lower freq = higher demand) then widespread installation could assist even though the timers say Go. After all, belt and braces, if premises have to be visited to reset timers, then install of the SI device at the same time would give added protection. Thoughts, common taters?

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    • #
      Rereke Whakaaro

      Frequency is invariably a function of the rotational speed of the generator, at source. AC high voltage has less losses over long distances than DC, and is easy to step down to lower AC voltages at distribution points, and the terminating point of supply to the consumer.

      The generation frequency is used to keep electric clocks on time, and to ensure that medical life support systems work as they were designed, as well as synchronising air traffic control systems across the country, and other such niceties.

      The frequency on the grid is, as it is, and is carefully controlled at source. The only case, that I can think of, that might impact the AC frequency is if the supply grid is grossly overloaded. In which case, having a “gizmo” that stuffs around with the voltage, is probably only going to make it worse.

      Roy, a contributor here, may have a better appreciation than I. I play at the millivolt level, and not with the Gigavolt distribution stuff. That is serious toys.

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      • #

        “AC high voltage has less losses over long distances than DC”

        Mostly true.
        Very high voltage superconducting DC has the lowest electrical losses. Keeping that puppy cryogenically cooled is the flip side. Locally (within building) 50-400V dc is most economical, with switching regulators to keep LEDs bright, and fine brushless DC motors working correctly. Tune into WWVB to check the time.
        All the best!-will-

        10

        • #
          TdeF

          It simple enough, you can transform AC. Higher voltage, lower current on the same conductor. V=IR.
          Increase V x 1000 and I goes down x 1000
          Even more dramatically for a given conductor with fixed resitance, power losses go as I^R,
          so power losses go down 1 Million:1 compared with DC.

          This was the reason AC was adopted and Tesla and General Electric beat Edison and Westinghouse.

          The downside to AC is that it is incredibly difficult to connect two AC generators in parallel as they have to be tighter than the Rockettes. Timing, phase, amplitude, even wave shape.

          So if the grid goes down, instantly the Windmills and Solar all turn off and they can take a day to connect again. That is what no one is talking about, the total dependence of the AC grid on big constant very heavy rotors in the coal generators. If Hazelwood stops, SA is off. Again.

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          • #
            TdeF

            Sorry, the other way around.
            Tesla and Westinghouse with AC, Edison and General Electric with DC.

            01

          • #
            Rereke Whakaaro

            Thank you TdeF.

            I knew what I wanted to say, about the principles, in general, but I lacked the authoritative language in which to say it.

            00

      • #
        NuThink

        DC generally has lower losses than AC over long distances and underwater for a few reasons, one being skin effect (therefore the whole conductor is used). There is also the problem of 1/4 wave antenna, which for 50hz is approx 1,500km. AC requires 3 wires, where as DC only needs two or one and ground return. Synchronization is easier with DC than AC, so like in Japan where they have 50hz and 60 hz DC simplifies the connections. Underwater cables are better with HV DC than AC owing to the dielectric effect of the sea water. Insulation for DC does not have to be as high as for AC. Peak voltage of AC lines is 1.4 times the voltage of DC for the same power carrying capacity.
        BTC Instrumentation have a very good series of videos detailing the problem of syncing AC,
        https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RGPCIypib5Q
        There is a lot more to it but I have only just touched the surface here.
        http://new.abb.com/systems/hvdc/hvdc-converter-stations
        Converter stations are needed for HVDC to convert DV to AC and vice versa.

        https://library.e.abb.com/public/ff3a4516c7e727ecc1257206002bb2b2/Converter%20stations%20for%20800%20kV_web.pdf

        A comparison of the total cost for transmitting 6400 MW over 1800 km at 800 kV AC, 800 kV DC and 600 kV DC has been done. 1400 USD/kW has been applied when calculating the value of the losses. The result is that 800 kV DC is the most cost effective alternative because of higher line capacity and lower line losses. The total cost for the 800 kV alternative is 25 % lower than for 600 kV, see Fig. 1.

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    Dennis

    Australian governments derive a substantial amount of revenue from transport fossil fuel tax/excise. When governments believed the transition was to LPG they increased the tax on LPG so when they begin to see a decline in sales of petrol and diesel it follows that they will increase or levy a tax on electricity used to recharge vehicle batteries.

    The Queensland Government is building a network of recharging stations between Brisbane and Cairns right now, yet EV sales are poor. Obviously the infrastructure is to encourage more sales of EV in Queensland, or is it linked to the $100 million already gifted to a leasing firm for Tesla EV leasing sales promotion?

    Taxpayers should always beware of politicians’ motives.

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  • #

    This is not just something which happens in South Australia, as it happens in every State.

    They all have off peak hot water, and it all comes on around the same time.

    What makes it so visible in South Australia is that thing I have mentioned often here, that South Australia only consumes 6.2% of Australia’s total power, and what makes it more visible is that at around that time, the total power consumption in SouthAus is only around 1000MW, give or take a little.

    When you look at those Load Curves for each State at that AEMO site, the shape for all of them is similar. What they have done, for ease of vivibility is to expand the vertical size of those smaller States, SouthAus and Tassie, so any rise you see in consumption is indeed quite visible.

    Now, while it happens in those other States at around the same time, you have Victoria consuming around 5200MW and while that spike is (sort of) visible, it seems a lot less because of the shortening of that vertical scale. The same in NSW (around 7600MW) and still partly visible, and Qld (around 6500MW) and barely even showing, and Qld being naturally warmer, then it’s (the hot water system) not coming from so cold a base as those Southern States.

    Even so, this off peak hot water system heating accounts for barely 10 to 12% of that Base Load, and even then, that is just the spike and then it eases back, so while 10% or so, it’s just for a couple of hours at most.

    It’s an anomaly made to seem larger because of the difference in scales between individual Load Curves for each State.

    So, while hot water adds somewhat to that Base Load, it’s still only a spike, so basically (half of the 10% spike) only 5% of Base Load, and only for two hours tops.

    Go to this link, and at top left, see the State buttons. Click on each one and while those Load Curves (the lighter coloured solid line) look similar, look at the Vertical scale gradations, shown at right.

    Tony.

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      RobK

      That’s right Tony, but it is a little ironic to go for very high percentage solar power and shift the water heating load to night time.

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      • #

        I have 5kw PV on the roof. For a bit extra I got a Hager hot water timer. Replaces the hot water jumper. The off-peak meter is gone, meter box panel is 3/4 empty. The rig seems to be paying for itself. Correction – its being paid for by other people. Next electric bill is on track for being close to zero. I figure this ruinables insanity could go on for some time, but I’ll be happy if I’m wrong about that.
        Looks like RedThumber is voting down every comment, including ones that merely provide clarifying information. Why not try delivering pizzas? These days GPS looks after you, and customers are sometimes appreciative of your efforts. Our local Dominoes even has electric bike delivery if you really are one of the righteous …

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      Chris In Hervey Bay

      Tony, I have a problem with this.

      Qld being naturally warmer, then it’s (the hot water system) not coming from so cold a base as those Southern States.

      Surely, if I have a 2 kw heating element in my hot water system, it will only draw 2 kw no matter what the temperature of the water in the tank is.
      Maybe it won’t stay on as long is Queensland, but that is not the issue. The element will draw 2 kw at turn on.

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      • #

        How right you are, on all points.

        Evidently there’s also more rooftop solar hot water heating in Queensland too, or so our Premier says.

        Tony.

        80

      • #
        James

        I would have thought that initially is would draw more, then once it gets up to temperature, it would draw less. Positive temperature riesistance coefficient in most elements, except some ceramic.

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  • #

    This is not clear to me:
    “This demand peak is controlled by fixed timers and requires considerable effort to reduce the peak through the adjustment of the time clocks at individual premises. While all new meters installed in SA will have randomised time clocks, all existing meters are set to switch at 11:30 pm.”
    I would believe that timer is a time controlled switch while a meter is a meter that possibly provide time stamped measurements? Please clarify.

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    • #
      oldbrew

      Night rate hot water is pre-set: either on or off. If it’s on it starts working whenever the night rate starts. There isn’t a start time option – that’s the problem.

      40

    • #
      RickWill

      South Australia does not have ripple controlled switching. Queensland had it back in the 1960s.

      Apparently most of the off-peak switching in SA uses a mechanical clock that can only be reset at the premises.

      10

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    David Maddison

    That’s an awful lot of diesel generators that need to be turned on to heat water…

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    • #

      And a lot of heat wasted heating water when cooling those diesel generators.

      Most Australians are (as yet¹) unfamiliar with the concept of district heating by which the electrical power generators also supply heat to the town via their cooling water. In temperate and colder climates, that substantially reduces the need for the power generators to operate other means of cooling the water that’s used in the process of power generation.

      District heating isn’t viable when the power station is out-of-sight-and-out-of-mind. The pipes get too long and the power needed to pump the water excessive.

      ¹Even Canberrans found their little enclave a touch too cold in the middle of September. I quipped that the BoM ought to be able to produce warmer weather for a million dollars a day. (And I got away with it. :-) )

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  • #
    jaymam

    Auckland New Zealand has had a simple system from 1965 or earlier, where the power companies can shut off hot water heaters whenever they want via a signal through the power lines. There is no fixed time for that, so it’s very flexible. I have a 3kw element, while my average power usage is 1kw.

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    • #
      Chris In Hervey Bay

      We have the same system here in Hervey Bay. The off peak hot water heating is turned on and off by a 1 kHz tone sent over the power lines.
      I believe the signal is Pulse Code Modulated (PCM) so that groups of water heaters in different areas around the Bay can be turned on and off independently as a block.

      60

    • #
      Mr Farnham

      Our offpeak hot water system in NSW is turned on and off via “ripple control”, probably the same thing that you describe. I am not sure how it works exactly, whether it can send the signal to different parts of the grid at different times etc. Apparently it is the reason why ceiling fans can get noisy late at night

      40

      • #
        Chris In Hervey Bay

        Ripple Control, same thing. The switches work on the same principal as the old WW2 and post war Teletypes. If you know how they work it is easy to see how the switches work with the 8 bits of data. Two start bits to set the thing off, four data bits decoded, and two stop bits to stop the process.

        Goodness, I’m showing my age now !!

        60

    • #
      John PAK

      The Ripple Control Units are prone to power-surge failure. Ours has been by-passed so we have off-peak 24/7 until the power company sends someone out here to replace it. We save a lot of money by having a fridge, freezer, battery charger and hot water service running on 7 cents a kWhr.
      It would seem a simple issue for different regions to have staggered OP kick-in times to smooth out the demand curve or is that beyond their pay-grade.

      20

      • #
        Ken Stewart

        Power lines can also be used for communication, like an intercom. Had a mate with one between his school and his on site residence, through the power line.

        30

  • #
    Robert Rosicka

    OT but related , Victoriastan has produced next to nothing in wind generation all day according to the widget site .
    If this is due to lack of wind battery back up would struggle to keep us going for most of the day surely.

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    • #

      Yes. I was watching the Hepburn Windfarm all morning, doing absolutely nothing! The Aneroid website shows wind farm production in Victoria, sailing very close to zero, with a small ‘lift’ around 3 pm. the AEMO NEM data dashboard currently shows wind production @30MW. Looks the conventional power sources have been ramped up to meet and exceed the demand, as generation is now exceeding demand. Actually, looking at the dashboard, there seems to be a very curious flow of power! With excess coming from Tas, and SA, through Vic, and being exported North to NSW and Qld!
      Is it just me, or is the NEM a confusing beast to understand?

      40

  • #
    the sting

    Good article. Just wondering how much electricity is needed to turn a wind turbine into the wind so that it can start to operate from a dead stop.

    60

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    Chris In Hervey Bay

    Who wrote this ?

    Currently the most concerning of these challenges is the hot water demand peak that occurs at 11:30 pm daily. This is a step change increase in demand of approximately 250 MW, shown in Figure 3. This demand peak is controlled by fixed timers and requires considerable effort to reduce the peak through the adjustment of the time clocks at individual premises. While all new meters installed in SA will have randomised time clocks, all existing meters are set to switch at 11:30 pm.

    Surely, with 10 seconds thought, it is a apparent this is a figment of someones wild imagination !

    The question is, How do you keep all these independent “timers” synchronized” ? So they all turn on at about 11:30 PM ??
    So the power goes off in one suburb for half and hour and next week another suburb goes down for 10 minutes and another a week later is off for 2 hours in another suburb.
    It won’t take long for all the timers to be all over the place, unless someone goes to every house and resets all the timers.
    It doesn’t happen.

    The way I see it, all the off peak switches are controlled by a 1 kHz PCM signal as they are here in Hervey Bay. Problem solved.

    Then again, the timers may be mechanical, and someone has to go around and wind them all up.

    I would suggest that the PCM system does exist (the only way you can keep all the switches in sync.) in South Australia, has not been developed enough to spread the load over several hours. Someone asleep at the wheel again.

    Some people are Dreamin.

    40

    • #
      Peter

      Believe it or not, some electrically run clocks can continue to run for quite some time when the power is off – they have this thing called a “battery”…
      The clocks do also all drift a little, so the step does smooth a little, but that is in minutes not hours.

      10

  • #

    What part of COAL don’t they get?

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  • #
    Lionell Griffith

    One cannot be consistently wrong by accident. Ignorance and incompetency can be expected do something right once in a while. Always failing takes careful planning, thoughtful effort, attention to minute detail, and unending purposeful action. It also requires knowing and understanding the right thing to do so it can be carefully avoided.

    From this perspective we can conclude, government willfully CHOOSES how to design and execute projects that fail. The payoff is getting to do the same thing again only with more people, more intrusion into the lives of the governed, and larger budgets. It is the mechanism by which government grows to consume the civilization it is pretending to govern.

    Keep in mind that the purpose of a system is what it does and has little if anything to do with the marketing blather used to sell its services. Words and pictures are cheap and easily counterfeited. Actions and consequences tell the truth. Especially ones that are repeated endlessly.

    Look at what is consistently accomplished and not at the flood of words surrounding the result. That way, you will see the truth. What you do about it depends upon your goal.

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    • #
      KinkyKeith

      Thank you Lionell.

      Brilliant.

      Every time I see our PM in action I feel that I’m watching the sort of activity you have described.

      It disgusts me.

      KK

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    • #
      Roy Hogue

      Or maybe it’s a case of the camel being a horse designed by a committee?

      30

      • #
        Roy Hogue

        Committees can always get things wrong !!! That anything gets done correctly is a huge accident.

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        • #
          Lionell Griffith

          Committees not getting anything done is often the best possible result. Hence governmental grid lock can work in our favor until We the People can get their act together and trim the government back to a more rational size and scope.

          As I have said before, we don’t need better people in government, we need better ideas in the people. It took hundreds of years for the attack on better ideas to get us to the state we are in. It will likely take much time and effort to get the ideas in the people back to where they were in 1976.

          We have our work cut out for us. It won’t be easy. We are working to win one mind at a time while the other side has WMD’s of mass media, the entertainment industry, the so called educational system, and the power of the government gun working to achieve their ends.

          Yes it is long odds but the effort mounted in 1776 also had very long odds. A small band of malcontents with better ideas pitted against the most powerful empire that had ever existed. Yet they won. It was the power of better ideas combined with the iron will to say “No!” in a way the empire could not evade.

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          • #
            Lionell Griffith

            oops. 1976 should read 1776.

            20

          • #
            Roy Hogue

            Committees not getting anything done is often the best possible result.

            You don’t get an argument from me, at least not generally. But then there are times when those committees we call legislatures really need to come up with a horse and they hand us another camel instead… …or a jackass.

            Congress was all hot to send Obamacare repeal to Obama when they knew he wouldn’t sign it. But just look at them now that it goes to a president who will sign it.

            How many of you who live in the states would like to see DC float down the Potomac and out to sea where it would never be found again? Don’t all raise your hands at once. The wind resistance would probably capsize the whole country.

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    • #

      “…government willfully CHOOSES how to design and execute projects that fail.”

      Yep. Policies are too studied and too perfectly opposite to common sense.

      Nobody burns down his house to warm his soup. Then rebuilds his house and burns it down to cook a few snags as a main course. Then moves to a new house and burns it down to bake dessert. All to save electricity.

      If someone does that it’s to burn the houses.

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    • #
      Rereke Whakaaro

      It can also be a factor in job security. The more stuff-ups you need to fix, the more people you need to fix the stuff-ups, while taking the opportunity to create more stuff-ups.

      One only needs to look at the way that Brussels operates, to see the philosophy writ large.

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      • #
        Roy Hogue

        That term stuff-up is one of the best I’ve ever heard for saying what you need to say but avoiding words that will get you in trouble.

        With that said, it’s looking more and more like we all better get used to things we don’t want being stuffed up.

        I wish I cold put ;-) on the end of that but it doesn’t look like it will make sense.

        00

        • #
          Rereke Whakaaro

          Stuff-up is British terminology. It comes from one of the world wars, The American equivalent is SNAFU.

          00

          • #
            Roy Hogue

            Yes, I realized the meaning when I first saw the term. In the army I was made aware of the term FUBAR when admonished that it was not to appear in any of the typed material I submitted at the end of my shift. Similar meaning, etymology, etc.

            I feel more and more like stuff-up is being made literal as I hinted. My son and his wife along with my grandson will probably be gone from California within roughly six months. The handwriting on the wall is now in big bright red neon letters about 10 feet tall. It’s just one word, “FLEE. Only the committed left winger and those who haven’t the interest in getting life right will stay.

            Oh, and one other group will stay, at least until they realize that their utopia is a sinking ship. Hollywood, Sacramento and downtown Los Angeles.

            Seriously, the exodus is getting noticeable and I have no idea how it will end up.

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  • #
    pat

    surely there is more validity to suing the government for pretending to tackle CAGW, while destroying the energy grid in the process!

    25 Sept: Guardian: Sandra Laville: Portuguese children to crowdfund European climate change case
    Group from region hit by deadly forest fires to sue 47 countries alleging failure to tackle climate change threatens their right to life
    The children, from the Leiria region of central Portugal, where fires this summer killed more than 60 people and left hundreds injured, are being represented by British barristers who are experts in environmental and climate change law.

    Supported by the NGO Global Legal Action Network (Glan), they are seeking an initial £35,000 to mount the case in the European court of human rights.
    The crowdfunding bid was published on Monday on the platform CrowdJustice, which has raised millions to help bring citizen-led cases to court…

    Lawyers will seek a ruling from the court that the countries being sued must significantly strengthen their emissions reduction policies and commit to keeping the majority of their existing fossil fuel reserves in the ground.

    The lead counsel, Marc Willers QC of Garden Court Chambers, said: “This case intends to build on the successes which have been achieved through climate change litigation across the world so far.
    “It will be unique because it will be the first case in which multiple governments are brought before a court at the one time in relation to their failure to properly tackle climate change.
    “Climate change poses a major and increasingly worsening threat to a number of human rights and governments in Europe are simply not doing enough to address it.”
    The children, aged between five and 14…

    Some experts have blamed the increase in forest fires in Europe on climate change (LINK).
    A 14-year-old who is part of the group taking action said: “Climate change causes many problems, but if I had to name the ones that worry me the most, it would be the sea level rise, which leads to the destruction of shores and infrastructure such as dams, roads and houses, and also the increase in the number of forest fires that we’ve been observing lately – especially this summer, as the fires caused many deaths and left our country in mourning.”…
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/sep/25/portuguese-children-crowdfund-european-climate-change-case-sue-47-countries

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    • #

      So you plant out huge slabs of Portugal and Galicia with Aussie fire species like Tasmanian Blue Gum (I’ve seen how they clear-fell in Galicia and they don’t muck about with gums like we do) then you blame forest fires on all-purpose climate change? And it’s the little kiddies who are most deeply concerned…while they’re waiting to get concerned over sea level rise just as soon as they can find some? I’ll bet CNN’s finest news actors are tearing up as we speak.

      In depopulating Leiria you grow Australian eucalypts and native pine instead of oak and grass and nothing should go wrong and no intensive management needed? Easier just to round up the usual rich white suspects. That way your main overhead is the lawyers.

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    pat

    the only solution is to exit Paris:

    25 Sept: ChinaDialogue: Climate change causes compensation conundrum
    Following recent hurricanes, should fossil fuel companies pay for their role in causing climate change?
    by Catherine Early
    (Catherine Early is a freelance journalist and the former deputy editor of the environmentalist)
    According to a peer-reviewed paper (LINK) published in September in the journal Climatic Change, nearly 30% of the rise in global sea level between 1880 and 2010 resulted from emissions traced to the 90 largest carbon producers. Emissions traced to 20 fossil fuel companies contributed 10% of global sea level rise over the same period. More than 6% of the rise in global sea level resulted from emissions traced to ExxonMobil, Chevron and BP, the three largest contributors.

    “This report demonstrates the growing precision with which major carbon producers’ responsibility for climate change and climate impacts can be quantified, allocated and, ultimately, litigated,” said Carroll Muffett, president of the Center for International Environmental Law and board member of the US-based Climate Accountability Institute.

    Meanwhile, a paper published in Nature Geoscience in September, argued that litigation could play a key role in spurring states and businesses to mitigate or adapt to risks associated with greenhouse gas emissions…
    Sophie Marjanac, co-author of the paper and climate accountability lawyer at campaign group ClientEarth, said that probabilistic evidence, which is what the science of attribution produces, is already commonly used in law…

    Myles Allen, professor of Geosystem Science at the University of Oxford, who co-wrote the paper in Climatic Change, acknowledges that using the courts to impose costs to pay for damage caused by climate change would be expensive and time consuming, and not the most efficient way of channelling resources from users of fossil fuels to those impacted by climate change.

    “I’m not specifically calling for litigation. You could argue that private sector liability for the impacts of GHGs is almost a nuclear option, you’d rather it wasn’t used, but it needs to be there in order to focus minds. At the moment, there is no downside risk to selling or using fossil fuels with respect to climate change,” he said.
    https://www.chinadialogue.net/article/show/single/en/10098-Climate-change-causes-compensation-conundrum

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    • #
      Roy Hogue

      I got a creepy feeling up and down my back when I read this. Liability without proof of cause will go over big with the fools who want to run the world. That sentence reads more accurately if run is spelled r-u-i-n.

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      • #
        Rereke Whakaaro

        I can remember, when I was a younger man, sitting at my allotted position on the bench, writing with chalk on my slate, the words:

        Motivation, Opportunity, Means, Mechanism, Outcome.

        If Ms Early, formerly Deputy Editor of The Environmentalist, wishes to draw any inference regarding hurricanes, and the oil companies that she names, then she will need to show just cause. Correlation does not constitute proof of causation, and so, she would need to demonstrate the connections between the five words I quoted above, and the wilful culpability of those she accuses.

        She may well win an argument in the uncritical court of public opinion, but she risks being sued, if her stance and arguments can be held as being libellous or vexatious. I presume the lawyers, acting for the named oil companies, will be looking at the pro’s and con’s of taking her to court.

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    • #
      Robert Rosicka

      If I was an oil company I’d just stop selling my product , same for coal and gas , shut the supply of for a couple of weeks worldwide then step back and enjoy the chaos .

      30

  • #
    pat

    WWF now in the business of climate prediction:

    25 Sept: UK Independent: Ian Johnston: Extreme weather to cost UK billions and leave 2.5m homes at risk of flooding unless ministers take action, warns WWF
    Floods, droughts and heatwaves could cost the economy tens of billions of pounds and hundreds of thousands of jobs by 2050, according to a new report commissioned by conservation charity WWF…
    WWF said there were some “major environmental challenges” on the way, so it made sense to try to “future-proof” the economy…

    The new report, produced for WWF by analysts Aecom Infrastructure and Environment and Cambridge Econometrics, warned the cost of extreme weather events would soar if the Government fails to plan ahead…

    A three-month drought in 2050 could result in the loss of 354,000 jobs and cost the economy about £35bn if reserves of water continued to be depleted, the report suggested…

    Karen Ellis, chief advisor on economics and development, WWF: “The UK Government must start addressing these issues properly or it is going to cost us all money and ***some of us might even lose our jobs.”

    Coca-Cola has been working with WWF and farmers in East Anglia, where sugar beet used in the soft-drink giant’s products is grown, to try to improve river water quality in the area since 2012…
    http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/climate-change-global-warming-extreme-weather-flooding-homes-drought-uk-economy-a7964851.html

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      Rereke Whakaaro

      Ah!

      Coca-Cola has been working with WWF and farmers in East Anglia, where sugar beet used in the soft-drink giant’s products is grown, to try to improve river water quality

      And Coca-Cola does not want to pick up the entire tab, but would rather get the UK Government to “meet any shortfall in funding …”.

      Yes, we understand …

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    pat

    Unearthed, formerly Greenpeace EnergyDesk:

    25 Sept: Greenpeace Unearthed (Greenpeace): David Attenborough: On climate change, optimism and Blue Planet II
    “It’s a free world and we aren’t thought dictators”
    By Damian Kahya, Georgie Johnson and Emma Howard
    But while Attenborough is a storyteller, he is also a scientist. You can tell because of the caveats.
    Yes he has seen climate change, but he is reluctant to pinpoint it. Where has he seen it most powerfully, we ask?
    He folds his arms, looks down and takes several breaths.

    “You’ve got to get a timescale to talk about change, you’ve got to know somewhere intimately over a period and see what the changes are. And I’m too much of a flibbertigibbet, I go from here to there and I don’t go to the same place every time.”
    “It’s very dangerous to just point a finger at that place on the map and say “There you are, that’s what’s happening”. You have to be a generalist and you have to take a survey. That’s what science is about.”…

    But when Attenborough considers the rise of fake news as a journalist, he is much more sure footed.
    “It’s a free world and we aren’t thought dictators. All we have to do is go along declaring the facts as we see the facts and producing the evidence whenever we can. The trouble is there are a lot of vested interests and a lot of people who it suits to deny it.”

    “It’s what happened in the smoking debates in the fifties. I think there were evil men, I certainly think that – I think there were people who really knew and denied it – but there were quite a lot who didn’t. And i think there are probably plenty of people now who think ‘Well it’s not really true about carbon dioxide’. But all we can do, all anybody can do is go on stacking up the evidence from every quarter.”…

    “My hope is that the world is coming to its senses…I’m so old i remember a time when…we didn’t talk about climate change, we talked about animals and species extermination.

    “For the first time I’m beginning to think there is actually a groundswell, there is a change in the public view. I feel many more people are more concerned and more aware of what the problems are. Young people – people who’ve got fifty years of their life ahead of them – they are thinking they ought to be doing something about this – that’s a huge change.”

    “Thirty years ago people concerned with atmospheric pollution were voices crying in the wilderness. We aren’t voices crying in the wilderness now.”
    https://unearthed.greenpeace.org/2017/09/25/david-attenborough-climate-change-science-storytelling-blue-planet-ii/?source=daily

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      Hanrahan

      “You’ve got to get a timescale to talk about change, you’ve got to know somewhere intimately over a period and see what the changes are. ”
      Well I live close to where I lived 65 years ago. Then the spring tides rose into the gutter outside my house and flooded a couple of low roads.
      Waddayaknow: Spring tides still come into that gutter and some roads still get wet. Real estate values have risen as the suburb has gentrified. But Flannery knows this, he owns waterfront property.

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      • #
        pat

        Hanrahan -

        I love when Attenborough has the cheek to say:

        “I’m so old i remember a time when…we didn’t talk about climate change”

        wha! c’mon David…u never mentioned ice ages, medieval warm period, etc, in any of your documentaries – incl “Life On Earth” & “The Living Planet” series – until the CAGW came along? pull the other one.

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    Hanrahan

    Whose stinkin thinkin came up with THIS idea?
    There is little to praise in Qld but our cheaper, switched supply is only off during morning and evening peaks so the HW demand is much more diffuse.
    The suppliers have an obligation to meet demand which can be done with minimal inconvenience to consumers if the generators were allowed to do their job. I once worked around control room operators and they were a conscientious, dedicated group.

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    pat

    final words for the night go to the inimitable Christiana.
    why do I see evil glee when looking at the photo chosen for this article? check it out:

    26 Sept: AFR: Urgent requirement to cut emissions: Christiana Figueres
    by Angela Macdonald-Smith
    PHOTO CAPTION: Mission 2020′s Christiana Figueres says a clean energy policy with bipartisan support could have prevented many difficulties

    The former climate chief at the United Nations, Christiana Figueres, has urged the federal government to stop obsessing about the fate of individual power plants and seize the opportunity to recast its power system in line with the urgent requirement to cut carbon emissions.
    Figueres, who oversaw the negotiations on the landmark Paris accord in December 2015, said Australia has wasted 10 years in “constant back-and-forth” on climate policy while individual states and cities are pushing ahead on clean energy.
    “It’s 10 years that are resulting in a very difficult chaotic situation that everyone is facing with very high levels of anxiety that could have been prevented,” Figueres said while in Sydney as part of her Mission 2020 initiative aimed at “bending the curve” on the world’s trajectory on greenhouse emissions by the end of the decade…

    “This is a systemic issue: it’s not about closing or opening one plant here, or one plant there.”
    “It’s a systemic challenge and it’s a systemic opportunity to really understand that the power sector of the future is very different to the power sector of the past.”…

    “There has been no direction and the result of that is that this policy uncertainty has not attracted the level of investment that Australia deserves and needs,” Figueres said.
    “If ***we had had that investment over the past 10 years we wouldn’t be in a crisis mode now.”…
    “Let’s not cry over spilt milk. Let’s see if we can get more policy clarity, more predictability so that you can attract investment which can come very quickly if there is confidence in the system.”

    Quizzed on worries about soaring costs for baseload power users, Ms Figueres insists that the problem is meeting demand spikes rather than continuous demand from round-the-clock electricity consumers…
    And in that regard, renewables are better placed to meet peak demand, when worked up in a package with gas, demand-response measures, smart metering, energy efficiency and storage…
    http://www.afr.com/news/special-reports/future-of-energy/urgent-requirement-to-cut-emissions–christiana-figueres-20170925-gyoqcr

    ***Christiana, you are not “we”.

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  • #

    Ahh the perverse effects of pricing on the market.

    I dwelt on the balance of off-peak water heating using grid power during one freezing cold night in Canberra a fortnight ago.

    All those heat pumps an heating elements humming and aglow when there’s no chance of PV solar and, if I recall correctly from many nights standing to, that the wind is weak from just before the middle of the night until just before the first light of dawn. Bringing the coldest part of most nights.

    So the water is the hottest just before the coldest part of the day. i.e. cooling the fastest before its first use of the day. Heat loss is proportional to the difference in temperature between the water and the surroundings.

    If the off-peak electricity rate is sufficiently below other rates, this can make economic sense but; more energy has been used to heat the water being used and; given that neither PV nor Wind played a substantial role in providing electrical power for heating at those times; more CO2 is produced than would be otherwise. Off-peak rates are available to consumers because the baseload generators work best if they’re not throttled back too far. The pricing for off-peak electrical power is a market signal that helps to reduce the generating costs of baseload.

    What will happen when off-peak power is being used significantly to recharge EV batteries? Around 20kWh per EV per night? i.e. around the same amount that a household otherwise consumes during a day?

    For those operating baseload power generating plant, there’d no longer be a need to offer a steep discount for off-peak because their plant will be generating at near optimum operating loads. The market will be consuming at peak rates during the night. And the EV’s will be needed the next morning. Indeed, overnight peak rates may have to be introduced to bring in money for new power generating plant and as a price signal to persuade consumers to recharge EV at some other time.

    The Norwegian EV Association‘ Petter Haugneland has voiced concerns about the lack of infrastructure to support recharging EV. There are 1300 recharge stations for 80,000 EV in the greater Oslo area. And the association appears to want more free stuff; insisting that power outlets be installed in car parks, etc.

    In a published study there are some interesting figures:

    9.9.1 Environmental impacts
    … Norwegian government and EV consumers are encouraged with new policies and tax exemptions. The reduction of CO2 emissions is the main advantage of EVs rather than using ICE vehicles. The two broad political agreements (2008 and 2012) on climate in Norwegian parliament have agreed to protect existing incentives until 2018 or until 50,000 EVs reached. It is reported that the average emission in 2015 is 99 g/CO2/km and the most important goal from climate agreement is 85 g/CO2/km …

    9.11 Summary and conclusion
    … The successful nonfiscal incentives, free parking and charging and access for EVs to bus lanes has begun to progress the EV usage in country. …

    Those familiar with the funky CO2/km figures will appreciate that 99 gCO2/km is already achieved in smaller turbo-diesel cars … perhaps a motivation for demonising that technology.

    How did I get from hot water into diesel cars? Better than getting into hot water. ;-)

    It’s all about emissions. Emissions of an essential trace gas that fuels the cycle of life on this planet. A gas that some would like others to believe is a danger to life; out of ignorance or for their own profit and fame.

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    • #
      Dennis

      Regarding turbo-diesel engines and CO2 output, I recently ordered a 4WD with intercooler turbo-diesel that complies with Euro5 emissions level and before I ordered the vehicle I compared several brands. I also received advice from a truck diesel engine reconditioning engineer who has been operating his business for a few decades and he warned against high output/performance smaller turbo-diesel engines and commented that when worked hard, as in a tradesman carrying boxes of tools and towing trailers or others towing caravans and boats long distances regularly, 150,000 Kms before engine reconditioning is needed is about average.

      Considering that most well maintained diesel engines were expected to achieve 500,000 Km and more when they were less stressed I chose a 3 litre Isuzu that has much the same power and torque as the 2.4 litre Mitsubishi equivalent (Nissan 2.3 litre) 4WD.

      The point is that diesels are now being forced out of production because European Standard for emissions is way over the top. Considering the history of “green” fossil fuel warfare: leaded to unleaded petrol, sulphur 500 ppm for diesel to zero sulphur, unleaded petrol engines recommended and then zero sulphur diesel engines, next hybrid technology and now electric vehicles the cost to the world for “global warming” socialism masquerading as environmentalism” is economic vandalism.

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    Dennis

    What better example of the lack of direction and leadership existing in Australia than the gas supply situation?

    Australia according to reports has more natural gas than just about any other country, and coal and shale seam gas. A natural gas export agreement signed by the Federal Labor Government has loopholes that have enabled gas exporters to sell LNG overseas and deny us adequate supplies and reasonable local pricing. A gas pipeline network enables the gas firms to export gas interstate and then overseas.

    Western Australia, Northern Territory and Queensland apparently do not have gas supply and pricing problems.

    The problem states seem to be South Australia, Victoria and New South Wales.

    I read this morning that in reply to the Federal Government’s demands for the states to issue more Coal Seam Gas exploration and extraction permits or licences the New South Wales Labor Opposition Leader says, according to The Australian’s headline: “no fracking way”. The Coalition Government is also reluctant and both sides are frightened of local electorate “green” opposition to gas extraction. And in Victoria the same situation applies.

    Add this to the electricity supply crisis and issues, and then consider the economy and jobs, and we have a worrying situation, politicians playing politics and displaying little or no leadership and initiative.

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    • #
      el gordo

      Talcum went mad on Premier Gladys, but she was adamant the matter was being attended to and blamed the PM for lack of backbone on energy.

      Out in the bush we prefer the option of closing the gate to multinationals searching for gas and I’ll happily argue my case here.

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      • #
        KinkyKeith

        I understand last point. While I am all for mining there has to be some respect shown by government and miners for the environment and local residents.

        Sadly this is frequently not the case.

        I am not really sure that fracking won’t contaminate water supplies and concerned that mining companies want to save on building infrastructure by locating their activities uncomfortably close to existing towns and farms.

        Both government and big miners are in it for the main chance.

        Miners want maximum profit and governments want happy rich mining companies that could possibly, maybe, almost certainly, would want to share their good fortune with the “facilitators” of their enterprise.

        KK

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        • #
          el gordo

          It would be politically astute to leave the gas in the ground and build a HELE close to a source of very black coal.

          Unfortunately I have fallen out with the ‘Lock the Gate’ mob because they believe in AGW, nevertheless I stand shoulder to shoulder with them to stop the multinational juggernaut pillaging our assets.

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          • #
            Dennis

            I was walking recently in the town of Dungog NSW, Hunter Valley Region. In the Country Womens Association premises shopfront window was a notice calling for a complete ban on coal seam gas extraction.

            And they are not alone, farming community obsessed with perceived tracking monsters lurking and ruining farmland.

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        • #
          Dennis

          Apart from the scare mongering “Gasland” green presentation, can anybody point to an example of hydraulic fracturing and extracting natural coal seam gas damaging the environment?

          The system has been used in Australia for decades. Ratepayer’s complaints in the Gloucester Council District NSW resulted in the EPA conducting tests and the report claimed all normal, nothing too be concerned about.

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          • #
            Dennis

            And gas is common in bore water, naturally, so carry on about contaminating ground water supply is over the top.

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            • #
              el gordo

              Yes the inquiry should settle the matter once and for all and then of course there is the financial inducement to break ranks.

              ‘Mr MacFarlane said the top 100 farmers who had allowed one gas company onto their land would earn $400m out of the life of the gas wells on their properties.

              “That is serious money. Now that fact and that science hasn’t been accepted in NSW and there hasn’t been the political leadership, in fact there’s been political cowardice under the pressure from shock jocks and environmental extremists and so we’ve seen the gas in NSW sit in the ground,” he said.

              Daily Telegraph

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            • #
              el gordo

              The NT inquiry continues.

              ‘The Northern Territory’s independent inquiry into hydraulic fracturing looks set to recommend significant changes to regulatory and legislative frameworks before the development of unconventional onshore gas resources is allowed to go ahead.

              ‘The Territory’s onshore basins have been estimated to hold as much as two trillion cubic feet of natural gas, enough to power Australia for 200 years.’

              Oz

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        Another Ian

        el gordo

        When a lot of your area is locked up as the sacred trees you’d probably welcome exploration to stomp on as much of it as you could organise. Particularly when it is about as pristine as a recycled virginity.

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        • #
          el gordo

          Ian its all about the State having the right to allow drilling on a farmer’s land without his approval and then set up a full rig and export 90% of the gas.

          Up at Narrabri there is this forrest which is fairly pristine and I would like to see it remain intact.

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          • #
            Dennis

            Yes, I understand the farmer’s injection but they should understand that they have what is really a perpetual lease on the surface land and what is below remains government property on behalf of all citizens. In other words minerals and energy are owned by all of us, our common wealth.

            As I understand it a government’s role is to find a balance, what is the best decision for the economy of the state and the nation, and what impact it would have on the environment and on the farmland.

            01

            • #
              KinkyKeith

              Hi Dennis

              I fully agree with your last paragraph, problem is that I haven’t got confidence in what governments do in that area.

              While I have a very good understanding of the CAGW issue the matter of fracking is beyond my reach.

              When government was happy to endorse fracking near one of our cities local water sources I became concerned that due diligence had not been followed.

              From another pov we have so much coal and gas and uranium that we wouldn’t need fracking at the moment if governments had governed properly in the first place.

              I dream of good government but am not expecting to see it in my lifetime.

              KK

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      Robert Rosicka

      You have to wonder why SA has problems with gas given the amount being extracted in the states far north, north east .

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    • #
      el gordo

      Queensland sold out to the multinationals and the gas price for domestic consumption has gone through the roof, we should avoid that in NSW.

      ‘If approved, the Narrabri Project would create hundreds of regional jobs, and a new supply of domestic energy for NSW.

      ‘Santos figures suggest a total yield of around 1,400 petajoules — enough gas to supply more than a million households for the next 20 years.’

      ABC

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      Graeme #4

      WA doesn’t have a domestic gas supply problem because years ago, politicians from both sides made an agreement with the gas suppliers to supply a fixed percentage of all gas for domestic use. Goes to show that sometimes, rarely I’ll admit, pollies do get it right.

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    Robert Rosicka

    OT but Bill Nye the science guy is in oz , where are border force when you want them .

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    David Maddison

    It used to be that things like off peak hot water heating and aluminium smelting and even pumped hydro storage were useful “dump loads” to enable the coal and other base load power producers to keep running at maximum load and maximum fuel efficiency with the least wear and tear on equipment (since generators could run at roughly constant rpm).

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    David Maddison

    O/T

    Latest video from Tony Heller about how NOAA have cherry picked Arctic sea ice data to falsely show it is decreasing by starting in only 1979, a natural peak, when a full data set shows it’s all part of a normal cycle. H/T Bernd.

    https://youtu.be/cu5Lu_lls4A

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    • #

      Yep. Not only is there abundant evidence of previous low levels but there is even sat evidence.

      Arctic ice was pretty high at this year’s September minimum so they’ve changed the subject to forest fires and drought. And I dare say that if Arctic ice goes to late 1970s levels again there will be no major change of heart…just a major change of subject.

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  • #
    pat

    in the name of CAGW -

    26 Sept: Breitbart: (California) High-Speed Rail Contractor Gets 18% Raise After Missing Completion Date
    by Chriss W. Street
    California High-Speed Rail agreed to increase payments to its construction manager by 18 percent after failing to complete its first 32-mile section within the seven-year deadline…

    ***But after spending $3 billion of the fed’s money and $7.8 billion (LINK) from California bond sales and revenue from the state’s ***infamous cap-and-trade taxes, Cal HSR has failed to lay a mile of track over the initial 32-mile section of flat San Joaquin Valley farmland…

    Cal HSR told the Fresno Bee that the delays were due to extended environmental impact reviews…

    Breitbart News reported in July, after the California Supreme Court ruled that Cal HSR would now have to comply with the California Environmental Quality Act, that the cost of the Los Angeles to San Francisco bullet-train, which had already ballooned from $33 billion in 2008 to about $79 billion last year, would be subject to at least another four-year delay.

    With construction inflation expected to run at least 5.5 percent per year, even a 4-year delay could spike California High Speed Rail costs to $95 billion…READ ALL
    http://www.breitbart.com/california/2017/09/26/cal-high-speed-rail-contractor-gets-18-raise-after-missing-completion-date/

    26 Sept: Globe&Mail: Margaret Wente: Cap and trade: Here’s your no-brainer explainer
    Do your eyes glaze over when you see the words “cap and trade”? Mine do. Cap and trade is a fancy scheme for cutting greenhouse gasses. It’s so fancy that only the experts understand it.
    That’s fine with the ruling party in Ontario. If ordinary people understood what was going on, they’d rise up and march on Queen’s Park with pitchforks…

    In California, cap-and-trade money is being used to finance Governor Jerry Brown’s notoriously expensive high-speed train to nowhere. No wonder the government of Kathleen Wynne loves it!…

    Last week, Ontario, Quebec and California – three of the most righteous climate-change jurisdictions in the world – signed a new cap-and-trade deal that will come into effect on Jan. 1. Watch out. This is going to cost you…
    https://beta.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/cap-and-trade-heres-your-no-brainer-explainer/article36389332/?ref=http://www.theglobeandmail.com&

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    pat

    news of no interest to CAGW-infested MSM:

    22 Sept: Newsday: Level Solar closes, PSEG and former employees say
    By Mark Harrington
    A big player in the solar-energy installation market has closed, according to PSEG Long Island and several former employees.
    Level Solar, which operated offices in Hicksville and Ronkonkoma (New York), terminated employees Tuesday, according to a copy of a note sent to one of the employees. The company’s website has been suspended, and calls to the company’s Long Island and Manhattan offices were not answered. In 2015, the company reached an agreement to borrow up to $25 million from the state’s Green Bank program.
    “Due to unforeseen circumstances, we have no choice but to suspend the operations of Level Solar and terminate employees effective immediately,” according to the termination note signed by the board of directors…

    Weir said he didn’t believe the closure would have an impact on existing Level Solar customers, who receive a discount on their electric bills for essentially leasing their rooftops to the company over 20-year terms. Level, under a power-purchase agreement model, gets the benefit of federal tax credits and accelerated depreciation on the systems, which can cost tens of thousands of dollars for home installations…

    Last year, two other companies, SunEdison and NRG Home Solar, left the solar installation business, while other players including SolarCity, have sharply curtailed their leased solar transactions…

    Level Solar also had offices in Queens, Brooklyn, Rhode Island and Massachusetts, he said. Attempts to reach those offices weren’t successful.
    Level’s business model “went out of favor,” (SUNation Solar Systems’ Mike) Rosenberg said…
    http://www.newsday.com/long-island/level-solar-closes-pseg-and-former-employees-say-1.14250589

    25 Sept: PV Mag: Level Solar employees strike back, alleging no WARN-ing in lawsuit
    Workers at the New York solar installer that tried to disappear without a peep last week have filed a class action lawsuit against the firm, alleging that it violated the federal Worker Adjustment and Retraining Notification Act (WARN Act)
    by Frank Andorka
    Level Solar tried to slip silently out of existence last week without anyone noticing. Well, the employees noticed – and they have filed a class-action suit against the company, saying it violated the provisions of the federal Worker Adjustment and Retraining Notification Act (WARN Act).
    The federal law requires employers with 100 or more employees to provide 60 calendar-day advance notification of plant closings and mass layoffs, as defined in the Act. According to court documents filed in the Supreme Court of the State of New York, Level Solar had approximately 200 employees at the time it closed its doors suddenly last week…

    Reports of the company’s demise leaked last Wednesday, when chatter from employees on LinkedIn and Glassdoor suggested everyone from the company had been let go without warning and that it had allegedly “forgotten” to pay their worker’s compensation insurance, leading to a suspension of all employees. As pv magazine’s Christian Roselund wrote when he broke the story (LINK)…

    Level Solar isn’t the only solar company who “forgot” to inform its employees of their impending unemployment this year:
    Former Sungevity employees file class action lawsuit (LINK)
    Suniva violated WARN Act provisions in layoffs, employees say (LINK)
    https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2017/09/25/level-solar-employees-strike-back-alleging-no-warn-ing-in-lawsuit/

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    pat

    yesterday Bolt Blog had a thread, which only seems to open as a Herald Sun article behind a paywall:

    26 Sept: Bolt blog: Labor’s Plan: $30 billion a year to ‘pretend’ to stop global warming
    We’ve seen little global warming and we’re too small to make a difference anyway. Professor McKibbin, of the ANU’s Crawford School, analysed the impact…The Coalition target in theory would sacrifice $18 billion in economic output (in 2030) compared with cost of $30 billion for the Labor target…

    presumably this is the article, if anyone can access it:

    Labor energy plan ‘to wipe billions off economy’
    The Australian-25 Sep. 2017
    Professor McKibbin, of the ANU’s Crawford School, analysed the impact of different carbon reduction targets in consultation with the …

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      Dennis

      And if we could even make a little difference (noting that the last natural warming period ended in 1998) the coal and gas we export to be burnt overseas would wipe that gain out completely and add a whole lot more on top.

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    Mark M

    It might take a little longer to heat that solar hot water:

    Something very interesting will happen when Bali’s Mount Agung finally erupts: the Earth will become a little bit cooler.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-09-26/how-volcanic-eruptions-can-affect-world-temperatures-mount-agung/8987770

    When it erupted, experts said global atmospheric temperatures dropped by 0.1-0.4 degrees Celsius.
    That might not sound like much, but it’s quite a significant drop when you consider the last ice age occurred when global temperatures were only 5C cooler than they are now.

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    pat

    big MSM news in UK.
    ***note: UK Times: Renewables, comprising wind and solar farms, biomass and hydro-electric plants, accounted for 24 percent -

    26 Sept: HeraldScotland: Colin McNeill: UK enjoys ‘greenest’ summer as 52% of electricity from low carbon sources
    From June 21 to September 22, almost 52% of electricity generation was from sources ranging from renewables such as solar and wind, and from nuclear power, up from 35% for the same period just four years ago.
    ***Almost a quarter of power generation (24%) came from renewables this summer, up from just 9% four years ago, and a fifth (19.5%) last year…

    National Grid is working with the Environmental Defense Fund Europe and WWF to make the software, which aims to help people better understand and control their energy use, openly available to the public.
    WWF has used the data as the basis for an online tool which points users to the best times to turn on or off home appliances to minimise carbon emissions, while Environmental Defense Fund Europe is working on the policy implications of having the data available and widely understood.

    Shifting activities such as when the dishwasher is put on or electric vehicles are charged could help relieve pressure on the energy system and reduce the need to use back-up fossil fuel plants, such as gas, to meet peak demand.
    It could potentially reduce bills for households as well as cut emissions, National Grid said.

    The software combines National Grid’s knowledge of the energy system with weather data from the Met Office to forecast the share of renewable and non-renewable energy on the grid over the next 48 hours and the resulting carbon emissions…

    Duncan Burt, director of the system operator at National Grid: “Clear and concise information that can tell you in advance when’s best to turn on the washing machine, load the dishwasher or charge your car for example, is a step in the right direction towards a low carbon future.
    “This technology puts people at the heart of it, helping everyone to use power when it’s greenest, and likely, more cost efficient.”

    Gareth Redmond-King, head of climate and energy at WWF, said: “Green energy forecasting could be a game changer – making the connection between the weather and energy and helping people use electricity when it’s greenest.”…

    He called on the Government to bring in “time of use” tariffs quickly which will help people also save money on their bills by using power when demand and carbon emissions are lower.
    http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/15557533.UK_enjoys___39_greenest__39__summer_as_52__of_electricity_from_low_carbon_sources/

    can’t find National Grid document, but lots of data here:

    Twitter: National Grid Control Room
    https://twitter.com/ngcontrolroom?lang=en

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      Graeme No.3

      Yet another “a step in the right direction towards a low carbon future.” Run your washing machine at 2 a.m. after your dinner is cooked. Shower at 4a.m. alternate Tuesdays.

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      PeterS

      The irony of it all though is the rest of the world is also ignoring the Paris agreement and building hundreds of new coal fired power stations, except Australia where we are closing down ours. What does that mean for Australia’s future? Economic suicide?

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    Did you guys see what the US commerce secretary Wolverine Ross did to fancypants Trodeau up north? Over 200% tariff on large aircraft. Bombardier is just trying to make a buck, and fine. The canadian gonernment is now is in terlit screeming “do not flush”. :-)

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    Even phasing the demand will probably result in a significant peak. Also look at the area under the curve, the energy will be needed sometime.

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    Henryk

    Al Gore has made over $300 million dollars propagating the global warming https://youtu.be/JlKjHO3PNIo

    00