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Coldest decade in Europe: 1430s — so cold people melted wine to drink, climate models have no idea why

Historic documents warn us that cold times bring death, starvation, disease. Winters were long, the crops failed, trade patterns and prices changed. Rivers froze over in Europe. The detail in this paper is fascinating. The world’s expert climate models (that’ll be NASA GISS, NCAR] don’t know what caused that extreme cold and can’t model it. If something like this were coming in the near future, they couldn’t predict it. Apparently it was due to “natural variation” which is scientific code for “we don’t know”. But the paper discusses the Spörer Minimum (SPM) in depth, and admits they don’t understand the mechanism of solar forcing which may include solar UV, or energetic particle flows. The SPM lasted from 1421 – 1550. They pretty much rule out volcanoes as the cause because the big ones in that era went off in 1453 and 1458.

Medieval Temperatures, Graph, Europe, 1300 - 1700, Little Ice Age, 1430s, 1438. Summer, winter, spring.


Figure 2. Individual paleoclimate reconstructions for summer temperature, winter temperature and summer precipitation. Left: dots are specific sites considered by the different authors (listed from 1 to 16; Table 1). Right: decadal-scale (10-year mean) summer temperature, winter temperature and summer precipitation for the 16 climate reconstructions, standardised with reference to the period 1300–1700 (datasets 6, 11 and 16: 1400–1500). The black lines enclose the decade 1430–1440.

They combined proxies like tree rings, lake sediments, and stalagmites with historical documentation. Only proxies that were able to give yearly data were used. They were able to split up summer, winter and spring to give an extraordinary amount of detail. The whole decade of the 1430′s had bitterly cold winters, but normal to warm summers. There were a series of floods on the Danuabe, in Transylvania, Austria and Hungary.

While searching through historical archives to find out more about the 15th-century climate of what is now Belgium, northern France, Luxembourg, and the Netherlands, Chantal Camenisch noticed something odd. “I realised that there was something extraordinary going on regarding the climate during the 1430s,” says the historian from the University of Bern in Switzerland.

Compared with other decades of the last millennium, many of the 1430s’ winters and some springs were extremely cold in the Low Countries, as well as in other parts of Europe. In the winter of 1432-33, people in Scotland had to use fire to melt wine in bottles before drinking it. In central Europe, many rivers and lakes froze over. In the usually mild regions of southern France, northern and central Italy, some winters lasted until April, often with late frosts. This affected food production and food prices in many parts of Europe. “For the people, it meant that they were suffering from hunger, they were sick and many of them died,” says Camenisch.

The green line in this graph represents grain prices (upside down). Hungry people had to pay a lot more in 1438.

Crop yields, southern England, middle ages, midieval era, graph.

Figure 8. Crop yields from southern England (wheat, barley, oats), Durham tithes, English grain prices and English salt prices for the years 1420–1460 (values are given as anomalies with reference to (w.r.t.) the period 1400–1479). Shown are the years 1437 and 1438 in the back-to-back grain harvest failure in southern England, the massive reduction in Durham tithe receipts and the marked inflation of grain prices for 3 consecutive years. In 1442, the harvests in southern England are again poor. As far as the agricultural impacts of the Spörer Minimum are concerned in England, 1432–1442 stands out as the worst period, especially 1436–1438 (adapted from Campbell, 2012).

She joined forces with Kathrin Keller, a climate modeller at the Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research in Bern, and other researchers, to find out more about the 1430s climate and how it impacted societies in northwestern and central Europe. Their results are published in Climate of the Past, a journal of the European Geosciences Union.

They looked into climate archives, data such as tree rings, ice cores, lake sediments and historical documents, to reconstruct the climate of the time. “The reconstructions show that the climatic conditions during the 1430s were very special. With its very cold winters and normal to warm summers, this decade is a one of a kind in the 400 years of data we were investigating, from 1300 to 1700 CE,” says Keller. “What cannot be answered by the reconstructions alone, however, is its origin — was the anomalous climate forced by external influences, such as volcanism or changes in solar activity, or was it simply the random result of natural variability inherent to the climate system?”

There have been other cold periods in Europe’s history. In 1815, the volcano Mount Tambora spewed large quantities of ash and particles into the atmosphere, blocking enough sunlight to significantly reduce temperatures in Europe and other parts of the world. But the 1430s were different, not only in what caused the cooling but also because they hadn’t been studied in detail until now.

The world’s expert climate models don’t work:

The climate simulations ran by Keller and her team showed that, while there were some volcanic eruptions and changes in solar activity around that time, these could not explain the climate pattern of the 1430s. The climate models showed instead that these conditions were due to natural variations in the climate system, a combination of natural factors that occurred by chance and meant Europe had very cold winters and normal to warm summers. [See note]

Regardless of the underlying causes of the odd climate, the 1430s were “a cruel period” for those who lived through those years, says Camenisch. “Due to this cluster of extremely cold winters with low temperatures lasting until April and May, the growing grain was damaged, as well as the vineyards and other agricultural production. Therefore, there were considerable harvest failures in many places in northwestern and central Europe. These harvest failures led to rising food prices and consequently subsistence crisis and famine. Furthermore, epidemic diseases raged in many places. Famine and epidemics led to an increase of the mortality rate.” In the paper, the authors also mention other impacts: “In the context of the crisis, minorities were blamed for harsh climatic conditions, rising food prices, famine and plague.” However, in some cities, such as Basel, Strasbourg, Cologne or London, societies adapted more constructively to the crisis by building communal granaries that made them more resilient to future food shortages.

Keller says another decade of very cold winters could happen again. “However, such temperature variations have to be seen in the context of the state of the climate system. Compared to the 15th century we live in a distinctly warmer world. As a consequence, we are affected by climate extremes in a different way — cold extremes are less cold, hot extremes are even hotter.”

The team says their Climate of the Past study could help people today by showing how societies can be affected by extreme climate conditions, and how they should take precautions to make themselves less vulnerable to them. In the 1430s, people had not been exposed to such extreme conditions before and were unprepared to deal with the consequences.

“Our example of a climate-induced challenge to society shows the need to prepare for extreme climate conditions that might be coming sooner or later,” says Camenisch. “It also shows that, to avoid similar or even larger crises to that of the 1430s, societies today need to take measures to avoid dangerous anthropogenic climate interference.”

 

From the discussion in the paper, the best climate models are trying to include some solar effects, but struggle. In these paragraphs they admit the models disagree with each other, don’t model that decade at all well, and they don’t know why. They also admit that the sun may influence the climate through other mechanisms (as we have discussed many times here) but they don’t understand them.

The dominant forcing factors during the last millennium prior to 1850 were changes in solar activity and volcanic aerosols, with additional small contributions from changes in the Earth’s orbit, in land use and in greenhouse gas concentrations (Stocker et al., 2013). The total forcing applied to the different models, including solar, volcanic greenhouse gases and anthropogenic aerosol contributions, is shown in Fig. 3a. The largest interannual changes are due to volcanic forcing, despite large differences between models. A 31-year moving average filtered version of the total forcing is shown in Fig. 3b, illustrating the contribution of volcanic forcing at interannual to multidecadal timescales. There are differences in the climatic conditions simulated by the different models.

As to the change in solar activity, most models include changes in TSI. However, the magnitude of the changes of TSI remain unknown and might be anywhere between 1 and several W m−2 (e.g. Steinhilber et al., 2010; Shapiro et al., 2011). In addition, potential feedback mechanisms exist involving, e.g. stratospheric dynamics (e.g. Timmreck, 2012; Muthers et al., 2015).

Note, however, that the mechanism of how changes in solar activity affect weather conditions and climate is still not well understood and thus these mechanisms may not be implemented in all climate models. The climate influence may proceed through changes in TSI, solar UV (Gray et al., 2010) or energetic particles (Andersson et al., 2014), which may have varying temporal developments. Further, reconstructions of the variations in solar radiation rely on proxy information such as sunspot counts or the abundance of radiocarbon and beryllium isotopes in tree rings or ice cores and are thus affected by uncertainties.

However, the lack of consistency between models indicates that there is no clear link between external forcing and an increase in the occurrence of cold winter decades.

 I havent really captured the historical detail in this paper which is freely available. History Buffs will enjoy the discussion in it about life in the 1400s.

h/t ScienceDaily

Reference:

Chantal Camenisch et al (2016) The 1430s: a cold period of extraordinary internal climate variability during the early Spörer Minimum with social and economic impacts in north-western and central EuropeClimate of the Past, 2016; 12 (11): 2107 DOI: 10.5194/cp-12-2107-2016  | [PDF]

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162 comments to Coldest decade in Europe: 1430s — so cold people melted wine to drink, climate models have no idea why

  • #
    Peter C

    At last! A climate science paper that makes some sense.

    203

    • #
      Analitik

      Because it makes no sense according to the climate models.

      52

    • #
      Ian

      Why does it make any more more sense than any other climate science paper? I suspect your use of “sense” is a very subjective metric. The paper is commenting on the unusually cold temperatures in the 1430s and noting that models do not provide any explanations as to why these temperatures occurred. Is that the “sense” to which you refer? And, did you note this comment ““It also shows that, to avoid similar or even larger crises to that of the 1430s, societies today need to take measures to avoid dangerous anthropogenic climate interference.” How does that tie in with your “makes sense” comment?

      30

      • #

        You have a point, Ian. When I used to check out Judith Curry’s site there was often a sharp little warmist pill hidden among the conciliatory jelly beans offered to skeptics. We weren’t supposed to notice.

        Maybe it’s a matter of bowing respectfully to the temple priests if you want to imply the odd heresy. No anthro, no publisho.

        Which is why Publish-or-Perish and disguised activism are so damaging to science and progress.

        61

  • #
    Richard111

    Layman thoughts. The solar system does not orbit the galaxy in a neat ellipse, it wanders up and down above and below the plane of the orbit. These areas are not so clear of cosmic particles. If the earth passes through a cloud of this stuff we will know all about it.
    Not something a climate model can predict.

    205

    • #
      Tom O

      Exactly where in your idea of “some sense” does this quote fit?

      “Our example of a climate-induced challenge to society shows the need to prepare for extreme climate conditions that might be coming sooner or later,” says Camenisch. “It also shows that, to avoid similar or even larger crises to that of the 1430s, societies today need to take measures to avoid dangerous anthropogenic climate interference.”

      I fail to see that as having any sense at all.

      132

      • #
        Tom O

        This started life as a reply to Peter C and somehow ended up as a reply to Richard111. Isn’t life fun?

        71

      • #
        bobl

        My thoughts exactly, that’s probably a self preservation line to avoid being labeled a center. Almost every paper has a sop to global warming like this

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      • #
        Manfred

        some sense

        The lead author is an historian. This is an auto-exclusion from any commentary being taken seriously by the atmospheric ‘science’ climate cabal. Her work will be ignored.
        Her required nod to ‘dangerous anthropogenic climate interference‘ is an essential requirement for funding, the avoidance of institutional disgrace and job loss. It is much the same as saying, ‘Dominus vobiscum’.

        It seems a pity she wasn’t able to provide an indicative value for the CO2 levels of the 1430′s. Perhaps that was just an inconvenient truth too far?

        Suffice to say , the best estimate of the centennial standard deviation of global mean temperatures during the Holocene records over 8000 years is 0.98 ± 0.27C indicating that any change is related chiefly to natural variation (Lloyd PJ Energy & Environment · Vol. 26, No. 3, 2015).

        Sense went out of the window along time ago. Climate models failed to predict ‘the 18 year pause’ since 1998. Cold is indisputably equated with all manner of economic and societal ills, war and impoverishment. Perhaps the only sense in this paper is the backhanded acknowledgement that the know all’s don’t. Still, that hasn’t stopped the political climatism charade for eco-globalist dominance. Little short of near total economic collapse and populist revolt is now needed. Science long disappeared under post-modern truth, aka nonsense.

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        • #
          Mike

          “Some sense

          The word “gaslight” from an old black and white movie freely available on youtube as well. The quote from Zerohedge below talks about it by a writer called Charles Hugh Smith from memory if it serve me correct.

          FromZerohedge:
          “Our “Gaslight” Financial System”
          http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-12-06/our-gaslight-financial-system

          “The terms gaslight and gaslighting are entering the political media lexicon, with partisans of both parties accusing the other side’s candidate of gaslighting in the presidential election. The terms refers to the 1944 film Gaslight in which Charles Boyer subtly manipulates the environment to cause Ingrid Bergman to question her memory and sanity.

          Generally speaking, gaslighting has been used in the context of personal relationships to describe a manipulative person’s attempts to undermine and control their romantic partner.

          As I understand it, gaslighting refers to a specific set of manipulative techniques:

          1. Questioning, belittling, discounting and undermining our experience of places and events.

          2. Overwriting our memory of events with false memories, again by undermining, questioning and belittling our memories.

          3. Discrediting and marginalizing our definitions of self and identity, in favor of the manipulator’s definition of our identity and place in the world.

          4. Using authority and “experts” to disqualify and discredit dissenting views.

          5. Denigrate and deny our lived experience and memory by repeating the institutionalized authority-approved narrative of “what actually happened.”

          6. Disorient, discredit and destroy dissent with a torrent of false statistics, false narratives, false accusations and false claims of our errors.” [My bolding]

          52

      • #
        PeterPetrum

        That jumped out and hit me too, as I was reading through. Another fine example of grant protection. Pity, it taints an otherwise interesting paper.

        11

    • #
      Tom O

      Your “layman’s thoughts” are precisely why I tend to question proxies to a great extent. They work well within the period of time that we have data for, but who knows what conditions we were plowing through in any other period of time in history, and how that might affect “isotope rations.”

      72

    • #
      Geoff

      The Sun can also generate enough heat and pressure to create matter from energy at its core. When this happens it can get “cooler”.

      22

    • #
      Leo Morgan

      Your general point, that extra-terrestrial events may have significant impact upon the Earth, is incontestable.
      However, the specific suggestion that the anomalous climate of the 1430′s was related to crossing the Galactic plane doesn’t work. The next time we cross is 30 million years away. The crossing will take much, much longer than a decade.
      I haven’t checked the data yet. But I wonder how well it correlates with the effects of a nearby nova? I’m thinking specifically of cloud-seeding effects from atomic particles, which could provide the directionality seen here, with large effects when the northern hemisphere is in winter, and smaller when it’s in summer, but of course if that WAG of mine is correct, it would have to turn out to be consistent with EVERY effect.

      20

  • #
    Peter C

    Keller says another decade of very cold winters could happen again. “However, such temperature variations have to be seen in the context of the state of the climate system. Compared to the 15th century we live in a distinctly warmer world. As a consequence, we are affected by climate extremes in a different way — cold extremes are less cold, hot extremes are even hotter.”

    Well I am not sure about that. The 1430′s were preceded by the Roman warming.

    We seem to be going into a period of sun spot minimum. It could get a name in the future, just like the Sporer minimum.

    173

    • #
      Yonniestone

      How about the,
      - Gorer minimum.
      - Predictor minimum.
      - Trougher minimum.
      - Proxy minimum.
      - Moral minimum.
      - Cluebat minimum.

      163

      • #
        tom0mason

        The Modeled Minimum ?

        92

      • #
        tom0mason

        Yonniestone,

        What ever you wish to call it the UN has declared that such thing much be ‘sustainable’.
        Therefore the new Climate Charter will layout a new target for the UN-IPCC, of how to generate and maintain a Sustainable Minimum (and not one of these unreliable 100 year events).
        If the UN does not take this bold step most assuredly future generations will not know what sustainable freezing winters are. New funding requirements will be outlined in the forthcoming paper “Sustainably Cashing A Minimum”, with the initial target fund conservatively set at a mere $100 trillion. The MILKING mechanism will automatically debt Western Nations as is usual.

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    • #
      R2Dtoo

      IIRC our current climate is that of very slowly increasing summer seasons and less cold winters. Isn’t most of the “global warming” accounted for by higher minimums? If so, we have the reverse of what they have reported -which was normal to warm summers and colder winters. The answers probably relate to what synoptic changes could cause these reversals. I would love to see the historical records from the arctic region fishing/whaling and exploration records during this time period (a good project for Tony in England and Tony in America).

      I also find their suggestion that human societies should learn adaptation from this era. What do they think humans have been doing ever since? As technology improved, we built better structures to ward off the vagaries of weather, improved the transportation and storage of food, and improved medicine to ward off health issues. One would think they would connect the dots when they go from their air-conditioned offices to their air-conditioned vehicles when it is “hot”, and from their heated well-constructed buildings to their heated vehicles and heated residences when it is cold.

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    • #
      GD

      We seem to be going into a period of sun spot minimum. It could get a name in the future, just like the Sporer minimum

      The Flannery Minimum, or if that’s too Aus-centric, the IPCC Minimum.

      64

    • #
      Rereke Whakaaro

      Ahem.

      The Nova Minimum, perhaps?

      That seems to work on several levels.

      114

      • #
        bobl

        novas don’t have minimums

        32

        • #
          Rereke Whakaaro

          I was being droll, in referring to our hostess.

          “Droll humour is a form of dry, or wry, humour that is delivered in a way that is devoid of emphasis, but is intended for humourous effect”.

          Ho hum.

          52

          • #
            bobl

            I know Rereke I was just trying to pass Jo a back handed compliment for her here, if that’s OK?

            01

            • #
              Rereke Whakaaro

              You don’t need my permission … deity forbid!

              But I agree with you, and I will compliment her directly, because she does a fantastic job, managing this site, preparing material for this site, looking after two very intelligent kids, and supporting a husband who is taking on the established (but dubious) positions of the climatariat at the fundamental level of atmospheric physics.

              I have no idea what they do in their spare time. ;-)

              21

  • #
    el gordo

    I have discovered a cycle of roughly 137 years, the NH hard winters of 1607-08, 1740-41, 1878-79 and 2016-17.

    Not sure why, might be a coincidence.

    83

  • #
    David Maddison

    If normal climate trends are followed we are heading for significant cooling. There is normally a double warming period such as we had last century 30-40s and 80-90s followed by cooling with reduced agricultural output. Millions will die.

    Windmill power won’t keep people warm.

    Those responsible for this Green idolatry need to be tried and punished for the millions of deaths they will soon cause.

    For commentary on climate cycles and the forthcoming global cooling see:

    https://youtu.be/w4hbKF5-qUE

    If you don’t agree with David Dilley’s theories please comment.

    115

    • #
      Peter C

      I am not sure that I agree with the ” Millions willl Die” comment. Sieems a bit Malthusian.

      62

      • #
        Rereke Whakaaro

        Millions die every week of the year.

        It has something to do with the size of the Earth’s population. Climate change only represents a minor variation on the actual numbers.

        Let’s keep things in perspective.

        103

        • #
          Raven

          “Overpopulation is like climate change’s ugly friend. According to the latest scientists, unless we achieve drastic population cuts within a decade, people are going to start dying. A lot of people.”

          h/t the irrepressible Brad Keyes

          21

          • #
            Rereke Whakaaro

            If people start dying through overpopulation, then we wont need to organise drastic population cuts, because they will occur naturally. That is what nature does.

            Oh, I get it. We must ensure that the right people don’t die, and that only the unnecessary others do?

            This is dangerously close to discussing eugenics, which has never been a subject for polite society, since the last time is was systematically applied.

            20

      • #

        The many millions that would be most affected are concentrated between the tropics which will not notice much, if any, difference local temperature wise whether it’s warming or cooling globally. They may notice more drought during cold periods and more monsoonal flooding during warmer periods, the later being easier to work around and avoid being killed. As long as man is putting CO2 into the atmosphere I think we can avoid the agricultural crashes that occurred coincident with the natural decay in CO2 levels that ordinarily follows falling temperatures.

        Global temperatures change not so much because the absolute local polar or equatorial temperatures change, but because the ratio of warmer surface to cooler surface varies as both natural variability around a mean and as variability driven by external forces like the Earth’s changing orbit and axis.

        64

    • #
      tom0mason

      Should the UN declare 2022 the year of the ‘Sustainable Minimum’?
      For the sake of the children, otherwise future generations will not know what sustainably freezing winters are.

      103

    • #
      el gordo

      ‘There is normally a double warming period such as we had last century 30-40s and 80-90s followed by cooling with reduced agricultural output. Millions will die.’

      Many starved in the old days, but unlikely to happen in the 21st century, except in isolated incidences when war upsets humanitarian relief.

      I thought the 1880s and 1890s were cool and wet until WW1, then it warmed until the mid 1940s. I’ll see if I can find a reliable graph, in the meantime here is the latest SST by Bob Tisdale.

      ‘The global Sea Surface Temperature anomaly for November 2016 shows a noticeable decline since October. A sizeable downtick in the Northern Hemisphere (-0.10 deg C) was suppressed by a lesser downtick in the Southern Hemisphere (-0.03 deg C). The noticeable drop in the Northern Hemisphere was driven by the North Pacific, which showed a sizeable decline (-0.21 deg C)…a response to the large ribbon of below normal sea surface temperature anomalies stretching across the extratropical North Pacific.’

      00

    • #
      KinkyKeith

      Hi David.

      Lots of good graphics and well presented.

      01

  • #
    RobK

    John Reid atBlackjay sums up a likely scenario.

    IT’S ALL BOLLOCKS
    DECEMBER 3, 2016 ADMIN 5 COMMENTS
    My paper on the statistics of “global warming” has been accepted by Energy and Environment.

    The good bits are as follows:

    Introduction
    In recent decades energy policy, both nationally and internationally, has been primarily concerned with the reduction in carbon emissions from the combustion of fossil fuels. This has arisen from a proliferation of theories of climate, encapsulated in complex numerical models, which purport to relate global surface air temperature to the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. All this activity is based on a single empirical observation, viz.: that there has been a significant increase in global average temperature over the last century and a half. Here we show that this observation is false and is based on an overly-simplistic interpretation of the data.

    (Nine pages of technical stuff)

    Conclusion
    The process which gives rise to a red spectrum flattened below a cut-off frequency is widely found in engineering and in nature. In electronics it occurs when electronic noise is fed through an RC integrator as with the bass control of an audio amplifier. In the natural world it occurs when energy is randomly stored. It is a particular sort of Markov process termed a “centrally biased random walk” and known colloquially as “red noise”. Using the techniques described above other “oscillations” such as the Pacific Decade Oscillation can also be shown to be centrally biased random walks specified by a small number of ARMA parameters. This is not surprising since the PDO is derived from a large subset of the global average temperature data used here.

    The small increase in global average temperature observed over the last 166 years is the random variation of a centrally biased random walk. It is a red noise fluctuation. It is not significant, it is not a trend and it is not likely to continue.

    The full paper can be downloaded from http://blackjay.net/wp-content/uploads/2016/08/MS1.pdf

    John Reid
    Editor

    245

  • #
    sophocles

    So what were the 10Be isotope counts for the period like and the 18O/16O ratios?
    !0Be is known to be a good indicator of Cosmic Ray intensities.
    These would give some idea about cloud cover.

    42

  • #

    1430s, 1690s…maybe not as bad as 2200BC but you wouldn’t want it go on for long if you had nothing but whirlygigs, solar panels and drought-stricken hydro (2200BC cool event brought dynasty-killing drought).

    It’s when confronted with these realities that alarmists hug their imaginary volcano friends, or imply that the LIA was localised at best. It was localised…To Europe, Asia, the Americas, Russia/Siberia, Africa, Oceania etc.

    I’m sure there’s a reason for these climate conniptions, and when we take more interest in the physical world, and less interest in those non-Kardashian models, we’ll likely know some more. In the meantime…

    COAL!

    243

  • #

    Some clues to what went on around that time would be in these two books, 1421 and 1434 by Gavin Menzies. Some large traders may have turned up to alter those prices.
    http://www.gavinmenzies.net/gavin-discusses-peer-review-with-kim-greenhouse-and-dr-tim-ball/

    33

    • #

      I’ve mentioned before that climate historian
      Tony Brown documents the long historical record
      of climate see-saw history, the Central England Temperature record, CET, back to the Little Ice
      Age, ships’logs and farm almanacs, church records, hard-to-miss advance and retreat of glaciers…
      This is a nice map from Tony, for a later period of the LIA.

      http://climatereason.com/LittleIceAgeThermometers/Europe.html

      102

    • #
      MudCrab

      Gavin Menzies?

      Honestly?

      Gavin’s entire deductive process is based around the theory that if historical records don’t actively state that something didn’t happen, then clearly it must have.

      He is not a historian. He is a man who either has been in the sun too long, a man who knows a good cash cow when he sees one, or both. Do not use him as anything except a figure or mirth. Do not attempt to counter claim that his theories at least deserve some respect, because they don’t. “Records never say it didn’t” is like me claiming you could have been out spray painting public buildings on the 24th because your Facebook status doesn’t clearly state “Not spray painting buildings tonight” for the same date.

      22

  • #
    Robert R

    The global average concentration of CO2 in Earth’s atmosphere is currently about 0.04%, or 400 parts per million by volume (ppm). This is incredibly tiny in relation to the entire atmosphere. In addition to this, as CO2 is relatively heavier than other more prevalent gases in the atmosphere, CO2 tends to lay on the ground at the surface of the planet where all the plant life is situated that readily snaps it up and converts it to oxygen and carbon in plant structure.
    Conclusion: an increase in CO2 in the order of that postulated by the so called climate change “scientists”, is therefor also incredibly relatively small compared to the entire atmosphere and could not possibly have a warming “green house” effect on this planet, particularly as this tiny amount of CO2 is laying on the surface with no trapped air under it to warm up as a result of being under it.

    186

    • #
      Eric Simpson

      Of note, if we increased CO2 through the roof to 1000ppm, which many say would be an ideal level, it would still be just 1 part per 1000.

      In any event, there’s ZERO evidence that CO2 affects climate temperatures: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WK_WyvfcJyg&info=GGWarmingSwindle_CO2Lag

      133

    • #
      ROM

      Robert R @ #10

      The global average concentration of CO2 in Earth’s atmosphere is currently about 0.04%, or 400 parts per million by volume (ppm). This is incredibly tiny in relation to the entire atmosphere.

      How tiny?

      Well, a quick visual way to demonstrate how tiny that concentration of planet changing CO2 [ sarc ] is to anybody who argues the case is to draw a sharp line on the ground.
      It needs to be a sharp line as we will see,

      Step out 10 metres from that line.
      For most people this will be very roughly about 12 standard paces, and place another clear mark at the end of that [ approximate ] ten meters.

      10 metres is 10,000 millimetres.

      Each [ 1 ] millimetre therefore equals 100 ppm [ "parts per million" ] as a proportion of that 10 metre length..

      The current concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere is about 400 ppm. ["parts per million"]

      Therefore the first four [ 4 ] millimetres from the sharp line you drew at the start of that 10 metre length is the same proportion, i.e. 400 ppm and the same percentage of that 10 metre length as the proportion and percentage of that supposedly planet changing CO2 gas that exists in the global atmosphere today.

      101

      • #
        ROM

        Addendum; to #10.2

        I didn’t really finish that above #10.2 post

        The last millimetre of that first 4 millimetres of that 10 metre length is the same proportion / percentage as the amount of CO, an 0.01% by which the CO2 in the atmospheric has increased over the last 80 years.

        An 0.01% increase in atmospheric CO2 over the last 80 years that is equivalent to just that last millimetre of that 4 millimetres of total CO2 in the atmosphere at the start of that ten metre length.

        And that millimetre which is equivalent to the percentage increase in atmospheric CO2 over the last 80 years, is supposedly the amount of CO2 that will bring disastrous warming and catastrophic climate change to the planet.

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      • #
        AndyG55

        Another way to look at the change from 300ppm to 400ppm, is to do it with money

        Change has been from 3ᶜ in $100 to 4ᶜ in $100.

        On the other hand, since plants basically stop growing at 200ppm, a rise from 300ppm to 400ppm is an effective doubling of usable CO2

        82

      • #
        sophocles

        Another way of looking at it which is suitably adapted to your average school desk, is to take an A3 (or larger) piece of paper and on it rule out a grid with 102 rows and 102 columns. It needs a fine pen or a sharp pencil. That gives a grid of 10,404 cells. This grid is one unit of tropical atmosphere for the early 21st century.

        Select and colour the cells as much at random as possible:

        Nitrogen:…….. 7800. Green
        Oxygen:………. 2100. Blue
        Argon……………….. 90. Light grey
        Water vapour…. 400. Aqua
        CO2……………………. 4. Bright red.
        Other Trace gases .. 6. Whatever you like as long as its not red.
        The remaining 4 cells can be allocated between the three main gases as required to make proportions a little more accurate.

        Look at your art work.

        Don’t those 4 red cells look really scary and hugely dangerous?
        Inflammable as in Set-the-planet-on-fire stuff?

        If you like, you can make a second Unit of Atmosphere with just three red cells. This is the late 19th century atmosphere. Wow! See that huge 33% growth in CO2. Is that natural or is it us? Or is it both? It’s such Scary stuff, isn’t it? Juat one cell per unit of atmosphere in 150 years.

        It sifts out all the Junk Science and Political BS, and puts real life into almost exact proportion.

        50

        • #
          Robert R

          Yes indeed, the percentage of CO2 in the Earth’s atmosphere, as all these example analogies show, is relatively miniscule.

          We do not need to go beyond this fact, that there simply is not enough CO2 in Earth’s atmosphere to have any effect in warming the planet, to prove that CO2 has nothing to do with global warming on this planet.
          Why bother with any other explanation when this shows the starkly obvious?

          20

    • #
      Harry Twinotter

      Robert R.

      “Conclusion: an increase in CO2 in the order of that postulated by the so called climate change “scientists”, is therefor also incredibly relatively small compared to the entire atmosphere and could not possibly have a warming “green house” effect on this planet, particularly as this tiny amount of CO2 is laying on the surface with no trapped air under it to warm up as a result of being under it.”

      You will need to provide evidence for that.

      CO2 is a “well mixed” gas, it does not settle because of turbulence in the atmosphere. The same goes for the other gases that make up the earth’s atmosphere.

      https://www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/tar/wg1/218.htm

      01

  • #
    Robert Rosicka

    Oops / sarc

    45

  • #
    ROM

    Everybody spends far to much time just looking at European climate history and trying to draw all sorts of conclusions from that limited in area climate history.

    So for a different viewpoint on global [ ? ] climate history we have the Chinese whose civilisation along with quite extensive written records goes back some 3000 years.

    Climate extremes revealed by Chinese historical documents over the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River in winter 1620

    Abstract [ parts of ]

    The snow-cover days over the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River (MLRYR) were extracted from Chinese historical documents for the winter of 1620, which includes the beginning of the tenth month of 1620 through the middle ten days of the second month of 1621 in Chinese lunar calendar. By using these records, the winter temperature anomalies compared with the 1961–1990 mean at nine stations were estimated.
    &
    The regional mean winter temperature in 1620 was estimated to be 4.4 °C lower than the 1961–1990 mean.
    The maximum negative anomaly of −5.7 °C occurred in Jingdezhen, and the minimum anomaly of −3.6 °C was detected in Changsha.

    Both anomalies were significantly lower than those of the coldest winter during the instrumental observation period.

    Now mean winter temperature of 4.4C lower than the current temperatures along with a 100 days of snow cover means one heck of a long cold period which likely matches just about anything that Europe can toss up in the temperature stakes.
    Which is also likely to reveal as the Chinese delve ever deeper into their historical writings that food shortages and plague and etc were just as endemic in those types of years in China as they were in Europe.

    Whether there is an overlap in these extreme seasonal conditions between Europe and China and East Asia is yet to be determined.

    I would suggest that such an overlap will be very difficult to pin down as even from Chinese records it appears that different regional areas suffered the extremes of weather and climate in the same general period but at different times up to months and even years on up to near decade long time differences

    One of the worst outcomes of extreme climatic conditions is the very high probability of food shortages and we are far from out of the woods as a civilisation ourselves on that one.
    Plus the very high probability as people are weakened physically along with their immune systems due to the constant penetrating cold, of a the much higher likelihood of pandemics and even plagues with very high death tolls again reappearing cannot be discounted.

    The great plague of the Middle Ages in Europe and there were a series of plagues, not just one, the Black Death originally arrived in Messina in Sicily on Genoese ships in October of 1347, ships that had come out of the Black Sea after trading into Central Asia and is now believed to have started possibly in China or north Asia .

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    • #
      ROM

      It is the best and most comprehensive historical weather and climate site I have come across so far is the Booty Meteorological Information Source

      The site is now archived and is no longer being updated by its creator, a British meteorologist.

      It provides a decadal and yearly history of British weather events and climate conditions based on the far from definitive and open to misinterpretation records and writings of various British Isle inhabitants going back over some 2000 years.
      But it is about as good a detailed outline of weather and climate conditions and events down to a decadal and even yearly period as can be obtained until a further much deeper study is done on the British weather and climate events of those 2000 plus years across the British Isles.

      So many decades and years and even centuries of weather and climate history recorded in that “Booty” weather and climate site above really show up what a truly benign climate mankind has been living through since the end of the so called but now not quite so definitive and beginning to be questioned as a closely defined period of cold temperatures across the world, the Little Ice Age.

      The caution here is from Tonyb [ @ post # 18 below ] who is highly respected on skeptic sites for his careful sleuthing of past historical records and his clear exposition of those long past historical climatic and weather conditions across the UK.

      A couple of years ago Tonyb gently warned me in a WUWT post where I had referred to the Booty site as an authoritative source, that some of the information in that site might not be completely accurate and in fact may be far from accurate.
      Even so with that qualification there doesn’t seem to be any other internet source of record that is in an easily accessible format for the layman of a very long period record of historical weather and climate and the events arising as a result of that weather and climate in a well recorded historically prominent nation or region such as the British Isles.

      41

    • #
      RoHa

      There are almost certainly plenty of records in Tibet, Mongolia, Korea and Japan as well, and very likely a fair number in SE Asia. There should be Arabic, Turkish, and Persian records, as well.

      11

  • #
    tom0mason

    I would also note that Arctic Ice amounts usually appear to be low just before a cold period and continue to rise well after the cold period ends.
    Or it seems so from the modeled reconstructions attempting to look back 3,000+ years. http://www.pnas.org/content/112/15/4570.full In particular look at figure 5 middle graph.

    So for all those alarmists worrying about the sudden loss of Arctic sea ice read carefully and gain some perspective. Though remember it is only modeled reconstruction so is NOT the absolute truth, just an educated guess.
    Arctic ice comes,
    and Arctic ice goes,
    exactly when and why …
    – Nobody knows. –

    I also see looking back over 4 decades or so of Northern Hemisphere weather reports, that a stable high pressure over (or close to) the North pole usually cause ice loss, while at the same time Canada, Russia and Eurasia have a very cold snowy winters. Correlation I presume?

    63

  • #
    Peter

    I think the Milankovitch cycles is just a starting point. Add to that the Jovian cycles, the Chandler wobble, the Sun’s movement around the Solar barycentre, the variations in the lunar cycle (and their effects on ENSO, the PDO and AMO) the variations in the sun itself (at different wavelengths), the apparently unpredicted passage through cosmic clouds and through different parts of the galaxy…

    The list goes on and on in terms of the planetary scale mechanisms which have measurable effects which work either against or in concert with each other on different timescales. Different people are doing good work on different parts of these, but I still haven’t seen it all wrapped together.

    Anthropogenic (Land use changes, animal husbandry changes, various pollutions and chemical emissions (which have come and gone: to wit CFC) including but not limited to CO2, and certainly population density) factors are almost certainly yet another cycle of cause, though exactly how the different parts of that add or subtract from the whole, to what extent and on what timescales is an interesting point to ponder.

    The resultant waveform from adding and subtracting all of the above would be very random looking…

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    • #
      RAH

      Variations of Axial Obliquity, Orbital Eccentricity, and Polar Precession each having their own periods. Taken together they can either enhance or cancel each other in different ways. Then there is varying solar irradiation and the cycles of our ever changing sun. Then there is cosmic ray flux as influenced by the rate of our passage through the spiral arm and the vertical oscillation of our solar system relative to the plane of the galaxy and of course super nova and other galactic events.
      I quote from The Resilient Earth: Science, Global Warming and the Future of Humanity which I happen to believe to be one of the best resources for the layman to get an all encompassing handle on the science.

      “If we combine the effects of all the forcings that derive from extraterrestrial sources, we find a compelling set of explanations for climate change during Earth’s long history.”

      123

      • #
        David-of-Cooyal-in-Oz

        Thanks RAH,
        I’ve just ordered the Kindle version of the book you like.
        .
        Cheers,
        Dave B

        42

        • #
          David-of-Cooyal-in-Oz

          Wow,
          A red thumb for ordering a book. It must be really obsene. Is it on the proscribed list? Perhaps it has rude words? Or pictures? A nice looking graph would really turn me on??
          It couldn’t be logic, I suppose? Or facts, even climate facts?? I will have to explore closely.
          Cheers,
          Dave B

          42

        • #
          RAH

          I seriously doubt you will be disappointed except I hope you have one of the upscale versions of a Kindle reader. I find my basic white paper Kindle makes it difficult to read the more complex or busy graphs and illustrations. Thus, though I have the Kindle version, I also have a dead tree version. It really is a great resource. Though I generally don’t do business with Amazon, the Kindle is my exception. As a trucker and a life long avid reader, it allows me to take a whole library on the road with me. It’s compact, tough, easy to use, and easy on the eyes. I don’t have a TV in the sleeper of the rig because I don’t need one. I read when I have downtime in the sleeper and use the thing even when sitting in the drivers seat at a dock.

          21

          • #
            David-of-Cooyal-in-Oz

            Thanks again RAH,
            I use the Kindle ap on my iPad, and keep it up to date. I find it Ok on other books. I also enjoy carrying a library around with me, and use it whenever I can.
            Enjoy your reading,
            Cheers,
            Dave B

            21

        • #
          RAH

          I seriously doubt you will be disappointed except I hope you have one of the upscale versions of a Kindle reader. I find my basic white paper Kindle makes it difficult to read the more complex or busy graphs and illustrations. Thus, though I have the Kindle version, I also have a dead tree version. It really is a great resource. Though I generally don’t do business with Amazon, the Kindle is my exception. As a trucker and a life long avid reader, it allows me to take a whole library on the road with me. It’s compact, tough, easy to use, and easy on the eyes. I don’t have a TV in the sleeper of the rig because I don’t need one. I read when I have downtime in the sleeper and use the thing even when sitting in the drivers seat at a dock.

          31

          • #
            PeterPetrum

            Well, there you go, RAH. You drive a truck all day, adding to the benefits of trade and commerce and you understand the truth about out climate, and our PM sits on his backside all day, too, and does not understand anything about it. There has to be a moral n there somewhere.

            21

            • #
              RAH

              PeterPetrum

              I wish I understood a whole lot more. When it comes to statistical analysis and some of the higher order math I’m lost. And when one gets down to it math is the language of science. People like me, and I suspect most the rest of us, have to rely on others to tell us what so much of the math means because we can’t confirm what the data really says or even begin to do the analysis ourselves. Thus we have to make our best judgments as to whom to believe.

              31

    • #
      sophocles

      You’ll like this article then :-)

      The IPCC and it’s followers still don’t know what caused the Quaternary Ice Age. That’s the Ice Age which started over 2 MYA and still hasn’t finished.

      Enjoy.

      31

  • #
    pat

    i like to leave u all alone when u disuss the science, but just noticed this BIG WIN as I was logging off:

    6 Dec: SMH: Backbench forces Josh Frydenberg into humiliating climate policy backdown
    by James Massola & Adam Morton
    Environment and Energy Minister Josh Frydenberg has been forced into an humiliating U-turn on climate change policy less than 48 hours after releasing details for a pending review.
    After two days of vocal opposition from the Coalition backbench, the minister has shelved plans for a review of the direct action climate policy next year to examine whether to introduce an emissions intensity scheme for the electricity industry – a form of carbon pricing…READ ALL
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/backbench-forces-josh-frydenberg-into-humiliating-climate-policy-backdown-20161206-gt5f50.html

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  • #
    Ruairi

    Could not Arctic conditions advance,
    For a decade, if only by chance,
    If each winter’s jet stream,
    Brought a frigid extreme,
    By a vortex through Belgium and France?

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    • #
      Lewis P Buckingham

      My thought too.
      Ten years cold could arguably be weather.
      Climate change presumably is measured by greater time scales.
      From memory that was the problem with the GCM’s, they do not predict the pause, vs the natural variation.
      The question here is
      ‘What caused the cooling?

      40

      • #
        Rereke Whakaaro

        Sorry Lewis,

        But your answer to Ruairi doesn’t scan half as well. ;-)

        10

        • #
          Lewis P Buckingham

          Dem corbies did gymble n twer
          in the burr
          me thoughts twas best be fur,
          tyme stood still
          in the frosty ayre
          for awhile, ten yrs, the bears did play,
          then ,in a natrl day,
          the cool went froliking away.

          Anon

          10

  • #
    RAH

    You know it’s difficult for the general public to get good information when fools like Peter Hannam are publishing articles that misinform. He doesn’t even seem to know that it’s eternal night at the Arctic right now when he goes on about the lack of albedo warming the water. Nautical twilight at the N. Pole ended October 25th and Astronomic twilight ended November 13th. The Winter solstice for the Northern Hemisphere will be on December 21st this year. The N. Pole will be in perpetual darkness until January 29th when Astronomical twilight returns. And of course the long twilights provide hardly any insolation. It really is a sad joke that a fool that does not even understand the physical realities of the changing of the seasons is considered a top climate “journalist”.

    174

  • #

    Some 5 years ago I wrote an article which attempted to extend CET from its met office start point of 1659 to 1538

    Whilst I was not specifically studying the 1430′s I did aquire some information relating to the
    Era as follows

    1431/2 A cold (possibly severe) winter in western Europe / implied parts of Britain. (Easton, in CHMW/Lamb) booty Every winter from 1433/4to 1437/8 described as severe. Lamb-chmw
    1434/35 (may be 1433/34)
    (Winter)A very severe winter: the Thames froze solid (from December to February) and was closed to shipping from Gravesend to below London Bridge, and wine had to be transported overland (or over the ice-covered Thames) from Gravesend to London. [ Some sources have this as 1433/34 ]
    1442/3 A cold winter western Europe / implied parts of Britain. (Easton, in CHMW/Lamb) booty

    So undoubtedly a very cold period. However I was a bit surprised to read that the era had not been studied in detail before now.

    Hubert lamb examined it in great detail some thirty years ago as has Phil jones and j Kington, both of CRU. Other scholars such as jean grove also examined the period. Whilst extremely cold the 1430′s does not seem to have been as cold as the period around 1680 nor around 1570 .

    However what does seem to typify all the cold LIA events was that in general summers then were around as warm as today but the winters were very noticeably colder during the decades examined.

    However whilst these eras could be typified as being extremely cold there were other decades within those centuries that were noticeably mild due to lack of a severe winter.

    The reasons for the exceptionally cold but intermittent winters or the very mild ones are still the subject of much discussion.

    Tonyb

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    • #
      Clyde Spencer

      The article and your comments make a good case why we shouldn’t focus on just the global average, but also pay attention to the trends in high and low temperatures. There is a story to be told that gets obscured by averages.

      73

    • #
      John Smith

      Back then bad weather was blamed on bad human behavior.
      They didn’t have science.
      Now we know it’s caused by bad human behavior.

      71

  • #
    David Maddison

    AT THIS POINT IN TIME what exactly would it take to convince politicians of the falsehood of AGW?

    73

    • #
      Yonniestone

      A scam with better dividends would do it.

      143

    • #
      Lionell Griffith

      As long as the politicians expect to change the thing by changing its name and/or its definition, we are limited to replacing the politicians. Even that won’t work if the new holds to the same failed policies that haven’t, don’t, won’t, and can’t work.

      “To Work” being defined as We the People thrive because we don’t have the heavy boot of government on our necks forcing us to live and work by permission of the government.

      63

      • #
        • #
          Lionell Griffith

          Interesting. Lends support to being hopeful.

          It would help if we had a constitutional amendment that prohibited lawyers from having any more than a very minor advisory position within any branch of government. That way, we would have a chance to have the laws, rules, regulations, and specifications written in plain English fully understandable by mere mortals – even high school dropouts.

          Any document that requires more than three pages and more than one reference beyond the Constitution should be discarded with extreme prejudice. If that was done, lawyers would not be necessary even in the Judicial branch. Documents would say what they mean and mean what they say.

          Otherwise, government is nothing but a lawyers open access to the pocket books, minds, and lives of We the People. Primarily because whatever lawyers write is no better than Jabberwoky – correct in form but without cognitive content. Thereby insuring their continued employment as interpreters of government documents. Conflict of interest? Monumentally so!

          72

    • #
      GD

      what exactly would it take to convince politicians of the falsehood of AGW?

      a) losing the next election, followed by a prolonged stint in opposition
      b) a subscription to Jo Nova’s blog

      Then again, you can lead a horse to water, but..

      84

      • #
        PeterS

        Not even a new ice-age would change their minds. They will still blame it on man-made CO2 emissions. Perhaps if the Sun expanded to giant star they might change tact but I’m almost certain that some at least would still blame it on man-made CO2 emissions. That’s how dumb many of them really are. They have the scientific knowledge and training of a baby.

        43

        • #
          el gordo

          For the hardened zealot, even if hell freezes over, they will go to the grave saying its a Murdoch conspiracy.

          Our side has to take on board the reality that even intelligent people have been brainwashed by effective propaganda and its our task to unscramble them.

          52

        • #
          RoHa

          Change tack, not tact.

          To change tack is a sailing term for a procedure which requires a change of the direction in which the ship is pointing.

          Tactless of me to point this out, I know, but I’m not going to change.

          51

    • #
      Greg Cavanagh

      Legal implications for falsehoods. Ideally for those perpetrating the scam.

      82

  • #
    Binny

    Must have been caused by witches … because we can’t think of any other possibilities.

    52

  • #
    C. Paul Barreira

    I don’t recall whether, in my experience, the best book on climate change—Emmanuel Le Roy Ladurie, Times of Feast, Times of Famine: A History of Climate Since the Year 1000, translated by Barbara Bray (London: Allen & Unwin, 1972 and several other editions)—discussed the 1430s but he certainly did discuss a great deal that many others who have claimed an interest in climate change should have noted. The French edition appeared in 1967.

    52

  • #
    ROM

    Off topic again!

    The implications of this new but close to deployment, oil and gas, “Oil Shale” extraction technology as distinct from the “Frakked Shale Oil and gas ” extraction technology which I have just come across in the GWPF site, is of another global energy supply shaking magnitude.

    As I have said before, the whole global energy and oil and gas supply situation has been overturned by the American frakking technology.

    BUT, it is rarely commented on that the global hydrocarbon supply situation has come about with only ONE nation, the USA exploiting its shale oil formations so far and the USA only occupies about half of the major continent of North America.

    Just imagine what the global oil and gas supply situation will be like when other nations on other major continents finally get off their backsides and remove the stupidity of their bureaucratic impediments to frakking and get around to frakking their own frequently large to immense shale oil resources.

    Now the Americans have tossed another technological hand grenade into the oil extraction business, the Microwave Heating of underground oil shale and reservoirs which has the potential to extract multiples of the current accessible global oil reserves from the oil reservoirs both old and new and from the extensive continental shale formations and to do so with a minimum of resource use such as vast amounts of water for that oil and gas extraction technology.

    MOVE OVER FRACKING: A NEW ENERGY REVOLUTION IN THE MAKING

    91

    • #

      Look, while ROM has gone off topic here, I’d like to point something out.

      Here we see advances in the extraction of Natural Gas, and not just small amounts, but humungous amounts, and the U.S. is leading this, and pretty soon, the rest of the World will be joining in as well, so as not to get left behind.

      If the fossil fuel era has finished, do you seriously think they would be doing things like this.

      From that, if the era of fossil fuel electrical power generation was over, and being replaced by renewable power generation, wind and solar, do you seriously think that those monster power generating equipment manufacturers would not be failing left right and centre. From that, do you seriously think they would even envisage beginning to design gas fired , and also coal fired turbines, and generators, because if fossil fuel is failing, it would be a wasted effort, and end up in a monstrous loss of money, probably sending those Companies to the wall.

      Not so.

      Look at just this one page, (at this link) and this is from GE, and these are new tech natural gas fired turbines. Just click on the Products tab at the right, under that opening paragraph.

      Just have a cursory look, if you wish, and then click on learn more tab for the one at the top left there, the 9HA.01.

      That’s the biggie of the fleet, capable of driving a 520MW generator, and also, not just for OCGT, but CCGT as well, so, the capability for providing Base Load power generation.

      Okay, so it’s big then.

      The biggest wind plant in Australia is Macarthur in Victoria at a Nameplate of 420MW. It has 140 huge wind towers.

      So, 140 wind towers ….. or ONE turbine Generator unit.

      The 140 wind towers supply their power at the vagaries of the blowing wind. This ONE unit will provide ALL its power on tap, for whenever it’s needed, and for as long as it’s needed, with a 12 Minute ramp from the command to start to full load power delivery.

      Right now, (Midday Tuesday) Macarthur is delivering, well, sort of anyway, around 5MW, so there’s probably two of those big bladed fans actually turning. (say, don’t believe me, go and look at this link, and cancel everything except Macarthur) Before those two fans started turning, Macarthur was actually sucking power OUT OF THE GRID for the previous 12 hours.

      Nup! Fossil fuel power generation is booming, and pretty soon, people will actually begin waking up and seeing it.

      Why would Companies like this keep making advances in their technology if we are so often being told that the fossil fuel era has ended?

      Tony.

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      • #
        ROM

        To which I would say “Amen” Tony, which in Hebrew means “so be it!”

        And to back up Tony’s comments above in #22.1 a now slightly dated as in 2.5 years old PDF on the research into the “Advanced Ultra Super Critical” coal fired generators.

        The graphs on the increases in fuel burn efficiencies from today’s era 33% to 35% fuel burn efficiencies to the A-USC plants fuel burn efficiencies of up to nearly 47% plus the reduction of emissions of all gases and particulates by 30% from today’s generators can be found near the start of the PDF.

        China of course is already well into building a number of these A-USC plants as is Germany, the home of renewable energy as the Germans have found out but won’t yet publicly admit it, their “Transition”, the “Energiewende”, the shift to All Renewable energy is now becoming recognised as a total failure and will take Germany back to the Stone Age if they continue to persist with only wind and solar as their power generation systems.

        The latter part of the PDF deals with the research into the materials and machine and boiler construction techniques required for the very high pressure, very hot steam temperatures A-USC generators and will probably be of most interest to the engineers here on Jo’s blog.

        The reductions in emissions through the use of A-USC technology would, if Australian politicians weren’t so utterly bloody stupid and so fanatically fixated on the grossly inefficient in terms of costs, reliability, predictability and operating parameters renewable energy turbine and solar for our nations power sources, the A-USC coal burning generators if such technology was incorporated into new fossil fuelled power generators would reduce emissions far below ANY emission reductions that can ever be achieved by Renewable energy systems when the totality of such Renewable energy systems including the grossly inefficient fuel burn and the high consequent emissions of the essential but intermittently run, stop, start fossil fuelled back up generators to the wind and solar systems are taken into account.

        21

  • #
    RoHa

    “so cold people melted wine to drink, climate models have no idea why”

    Because you can’t drink frozen wine, of course. You shouldn’t need a climate model to work that out.

    62

    • #
      Rereke Whakaaro

      What happens to the alcohol, when you melt wine? That is what I want to know.

      I suspect that when you melt wine, the alcohol will evaporate, leaving you with an undrinkable, non-alcoholic, fruit beverage, that is guaranteed to ensure that you never get invited to any social function, ever again.

      21

  • #
    Bruce

    aka Sunray
    Thank you Jo, for another dose of factual sanity.

    31

  • #
    Bulldust

    O/Topic – GDP fell 0.5% in Sep quarter 2016:

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-12-07/economic-growth-gdp-data-abs/8099480

    People seem optimistic that it will bounce back in the Dec quarter, but I am not overly convinced. The steam has certainly gone out of the mining construction boom now and layoffs are generally the order of the day (except Roy Hill).

    21

    • #
      ROM

      Bulldust;

      I build and sell sheet metal treadle type chook / chicken feeders at a half dozen or so of our local regional Farmers Markets.
      I have built and sold over two hundred of these treadle type feeders locally since Oct of 2014.

      Plus over one hundred small sized wire mesh sparrow traps since I designed and built the first one of the type in Jan of this year, 2016.

      I only have ten sproggies to go to reach my 500 sparrows caught since the 24th December 2015, all in the one location and with just the one trap under our patio where the wild Crimson and Eastern Rosellas come into a feeding station I set up for them.

      There is no doubt that the spending at the local regional Farmers Markets has dropped off by at least a third or more within the last six months, something that the market stall holders have all been commenting on with some stall holders dropping out of the smaller markets as an uneconomic proposition.

      The money is simply no longer there, not least because of the pressures that the rural industries are up against with very low prices, government regulation , green tape tying everything up in knots and lots of seasonal problems across all rural and regional industries.

      But it is noticeable that the husbanding of money now extends to the tourists who come through our local region as well.

      Lots of empty shops here in Horsham as well now.
      Horsham serves a regional population of probably around 30,000 people with 12,000 residents in Horsham so it is a good barometer of the financial health of a fair part of western Victoria and it ain’t looking particularly good for the immediate economic future.

      51

      • #
        Dennis

        I overheard a conversation this morning in a bakery in the tiny NSW Southern Highlands town of Marulan between the shop owner and a regular customer. They talked about the Christmas holidays and would the bakery remain open. The answer was that this year only part of the time, the reason a drop in demand for product (forward orders) this year.

        31

      • #
        Rereke Whakaaro

        Then the progrom is going according to plan, comrade. This is most satisfactory. Soon the only chicken feeders that will be available will be the government approved ones that will only be issued to those chicken farmers that are part of the universal collective.

        Yes, most satisfactory.

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        • #
          ROM

          Ah Well! Maybe I could still make a living selling those sparrows as an exotic dish whose origins are lost way back in the annals of history.

          Don’t laugh!

          A lady at a market told me how her mother was invited to a southern European ethnic home in a large rural city a couple of hundred kilometres north of Horsham for an evening meal a few years ago.
          On asking what the little birds were that she was eating, she was informed they were your average sproggie.

          Wasn’t told if she made it outside or not before aforesaid plucked and cooked sproggies were returned to the natural environment.

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      • #
        Graeme No.3

        ROM: just a thought – if you can trap sparrows can you trap sparrow brains? A lot of people, especially in South Australia, are desperate for something to deal with politicians.

        10

        • #
          Mark D.

          The trapping is only a small part of the problem. The transplantation being much more difficult especially for fitting the sparrow brains into such a small space. I imagine it would be a nightmare for them.

          00

    • #
      Bulldust

      Wow! Marked down for a factual opinion-free post. The drive-by red thumbers are hard at work methinks.

      30

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    pat

    FakeNewsABC is responsible for the claim Frydenberg said emissions-intensity trading scheme is back on the table. follow the tale:

    u need to download the following 2 minute+ audio because, if u click Listen, u get the entire program & have to wade thru it.
    Frydenberg is merely given a tiny quote from the Monday program to prove he said that it will be “looked at”, plus a quick quote from today – not recorded for the program – saying an emissions intensity scheme is not in the review document. Butler is allowed to suggest it’s a backdown; & there’s a quick criticism from Bernardi, which also is not recorded for this program.

    7 Dec: ABC AM: Frydenberg denies comments on considering emissions intensity in the power sector
    by Tom Iggulden
    The Environment Minister’s denying he’s ever considered a scheme to limit the intensity of carbon emissions from the electricity sector, despite telling AM on Monday it was being “looked at.”
    Labor says such a scheme is good policy and is accusing the Minister of caving in to climate sceptics within the Coalition.
    Featured:
    Josh Frydenberg – Environment Minister
    Cory Bernardi – Coalition backbencher
    Mark Butler, Shadow Climate Change Minister
    http://www.abc.net.au/am/content/2016/s4588324.htm

    this is how it all began. Landers was insisting (and constantly interrupting) that Frydenberg discuss a Climate Authority suggestion that the Govt adopt a form of carbon pricing namely an emissions-intensity-based carbon scheme?

    I found no way to download the segment on its own.
    u have to download from left column (it’s not in Archives) where it says: Previous Monday MP3. go to 7min 40secs, paraphrasing quite accurately:

    5 Dec: ABC AM
    Landers: The Turnbull Govt has released its terms and conditions for its much-anticipated review of climate change policies. it includes the possibility of a long-term emissions reduction goal beyond 2030 and the use of international carbon permits to reduce emissions. the review will be led by the dept of environment and energy and will be finished by the end of next year.
    (Frydenberg makes a statement,says nothing about emissions-intensity trading scheme.)

    LANDERS INTERRUPTS: let’s look at some of those things. this review will look at reducing emissions on a sector-by-sector basis.
    ***for the electricity industry, could that include, as the ***Climate Change Authority has suggested, a form of carbon pricing, ***an emissions-intensity-based carbon scheme?

    FRYDENBERG: we have absolutely rejected the Labor Party’s economy-wide approach. the failure of the carbon tax, and the ETS, and the more than a dozen policy positions they took…

    LANDERS INTERRUPTS: i’m asking you about that emissions-intensity scheme.

    FRYDENBERG: i’ts important to understand we reject an economy-wide approach, so what this review has indicated is that we will look at a sector-by-sector approach. now, as you know, the electricity sector is the one that produces the most emissions, around a third of Australia’s emissions come from that sector. we know there’s been a large number of bodies that are recommending emissions-intensity scheme, which is effectively a baseline and credit scheme.

    LANDERS INTERRUPTS: So any chance of that applying?

    FRYDENBERG: Well, we’ll just wait and see. We want to hear from the experts as to the lowest cost of abatement. that’s what we owe the Australian households and Australian businesses is how do we meet our emissions reduction targets while at the same time keeping electricity affordable and the lights effectively on. that’s our target.

    LANDEERS INTERRUPTS: is the reluctance over an emissions-itensity scheme, is this because there is still some political limits from your Coalition partners, the Nationals, on what the Government can do?

    FRYDENBERG: look, there’s a variety of views within all political parties on these complex issues but, ***after what we saw in South Australia recently with 1.7 million people go into the black and in Victoria skyrocketing electricity prices with companies indicating that they will go up 10 percent next year, & 13 percent for small businesses, we have to bear in mind what the implications are of our policies and the review makes it very clear that electricity prices, jobs in regional Australia, our trade competitiveness, investment, will all be considered as part of this mix.

    LANDERES INTERRUPTS: does your direct action policy need to be beefed up a bit to introduce a penalty regime for polluters who don’t change their behaviour?

    FRYDENBERG: well the best example of our direct action policy has been the emissions reductions fund and that has been incredibly successful in looking for the lowest cost of abatement by using a market-based mechanism, so we’ve actually reduced some 178 million tonnes of emissions at an average cost of $11.83.

    LANDERS INTERRUPTS: but what about some sort of safeguard mechanism, some sort of penalty regime?

    FRYDENBERG: as you know we have a safeguard mechanism in place and about 150 companies are subject to that, but the penalties are not great, and also you are looking at an average over the last five years for their emissions. but we will look at all these issues in the context of the review, but it’s important to understand there’s a major change happening in the energy sector – a major change – it’s effectively like moving from the landline to the mobile phone, which we saw in the telecommunications sector and this has led to a change in consumer preferences, innovation, it’s led to a decentralised network and, of course, a much greater emphasis on intermittent sources of power generation namely wind and solar at the expense of coal and, indeed gas, and we have to adjust to those new circumstances while remembering that we have got to keep the lights on as a number one priority.

    LANDERS: will you look at topping up the emissions reduction fund, because i there’s only about $400 million of the $2.5 billion left?

    FRYDENBERG: that’s right. there’s only about $400 million left and this is an issue we will look at in the context of this review.

    LANDERS: the terms of reference don’t canvas whether to extend or increase the current renewable energy target of 23.5% by 2020. does that mean that it’s not going to change under a turnbull govt?

    FRYDENBERG: well the RET is quite an expensive way to change the energy mix and to reduce emissions and we believe that our 23.5% target is ambitious because we’re currently at around 15% and…

    LANDERS INTERRUPTS: so that sounds like you are hot open to setting a new one, sounds like you are not open to change in that at all?

    FRYDENBERG: well obviously we will look at our settings(?) in the context of this review but, when you look at the effectiveness both in terms of cost as well as in reducing emissions, of the various mechanisms that we have, the RET is not at the top of the list.

    LANDEERS: there are media reports today that the Green Army is going to be abolished in the budget … can you confirm that?

    FRYDENBERG: well the green army has been a very successful program of the coalition. we’ve had more than a thousand projects right around the country, whether it’s planting 2 million trees, or ridding 90,000 hectares of weeds, but these are issues that have to be looked at in the context of the overall budget situation.

    LANDEERS: is that a yes or a no?

    FRYDENBERG: we’ll wait and see. i don’t want to pre-empt what will be released in … other than to say we have to find savings across the board.
    http://www.abc.net.au/am/

    AND SO THE FAKE NEWS MSM RAN WITH A COMPLETELY FALSE STORY ABOUT THE COALITION’S REVIEW WAS LOOKING AT AN EMISSIONS-INTENSITY TRADING SCHEME.

    more to come.

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  • #
    Dennis

    Regarding the economy, PM Howard was laughed at when he remarked that in 2007 Australians had never been better off (our position in the OECD had improved markedly and there was a booming economy based largely on the mining boom that commenced around 2002. In 2007 Labor won the federal election and formed government, PM Rudd was the leader. They inherited years of budgets in surplus (minus one year because of the East Timor deployment) and a current financial year $22 billion surplus, there was zero federal government debt (Labor debt and interest repaid by 2006) and funds invested exceeding $60 billion.

    Using the northern hemisphere financial crisis Labor referred to as a GFC they spent the surplus quickly and commenced borrowing and spending every year until they lost government in 2013. Treasurer Swan admitted to a “patchwork economy” developing and persisting. And the mining boom ended. Labor racked up debt exceeding $400 billion and deficits exceeding $125 billion. And in 2013 they lost government leaving that debt and deficit and a badly and deliberately flawed budget for 2013/14 financial year, many budget items unfunded including Gonski education grants, and an under-estimated budget deficit of over $25 billion. The Coalition government had to borrow to pay for budget items unfunded by Labor.

    And then Labor continued to undermine the budget position and economy via the hostile Senate. They blocked budget repair measures and even blocked over $30 billion of proposed budget savings. Labor and the MSM scoffed at the independent auditors report on the budget crisis and plan to get back to a balanced position within several years. Treasurer Joe Hockey was laughed at as was Finance Minister Corman and PM Abbott.

    But since PM Abbott was replaced little has changed, and the economy has remained in growth but still very sluggish. Western Australia has slipped badly because of low export mining prices. Tasmania and South Australia remain basket cases. The best of all is New South Wales returning to the top of the ladder for economic growth after sixteen years of hard Labor.

    Many commentators have observed that Australia has a spending problem, bit our politicians continue to spend and worse, continue to gift our borrowed monies to foreigners.

    Right now, in my opinion, voters have only two choices for alternatives to govern which has long been the situation. But now both sides are not a good choice. But Union controlled and managed is by far the worst choice and noting that they have done everything possible to undermine our economy, the 2013/14 Budget and via the Senate ever since.

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    Egor TheOne

    Just heard that ‘the Donald’ had a meeting with CAGW High Pontiff Al Gore.

    Apparently the GrandMaster of Climate Scams was promptly shown the door (in Bum’s Rush Out style, I would hope)!

    Where is Our Donald?

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  • #
    pat

    part 2 of a FakeNewsMSM tale – Part 1 is in moderation.

    deceptive ABC use a short video which in no way backs up the headline and which, as the transcript in my previous comment show, is untrue:

    5 Dec: ABC: Carbon price for power generators back on the table in Federal Government’s climate policy review
    By political reporter Stephanie Anderson
    (DESPITE THE CAPTION, THERE IS NO MENTION WHATSOEVER OF ANY EMISSIONS INTENSITY SCHEME IN THE VIDEO)
    VIDEO CAPTION: Video [0:49] Josh Frydenberg says he will consider an emissions intensity scheme for electricity generators.
    A carbon price for power companies is set to be considered as part of a climate change review, but the Government has ruled out a return to Labor’s carbon tax.
    Environment Minister Josh Frydenberg said the review would consider an emissions intensity scheme for electricity generators, but said the Government would take a sector-by-sector approach…
    “We know that there’s been a large number of bodies that have recommended an emissions intensity scheme.”
    Mr Frydenberg said there had been recommendations for a “baseline and credit scheme”, which could be similar to an emissions trading scheme where emissions are capped by the Government…
    http://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2016-12-05/government-to-consider-carbon-price-for-power-generators/8091912?pfmredir=sm

    and again ABC uses the 49sec video of Frydenberg which doesn’t even mention emissions-intensity trading scheme. ABC can’t use the real audio, because it would expose the lie.

    7 Dec: ABC: Climate policy review: Energy Minister Josh Frydenberg backtracks on emissions intensity scheme
    By political reporter Henry Belot
    Mr Frydenberg announced an energy review on Monday that would examine the best ways to meet Australia’s climate commitments and told ABC Radio an emission intensity scheme was being considered. (LINKS TO FRYDENBERG PIECE WITH VIDEO WHICH HAS NOTHING ABOUT EMISSIONS INTENSITY SCHEME)…
    “I didn’t mention an emissions intensity scheme, it’s not in any document that the Coalition has put out, in relation to this review,” he (Frydenberg) said…
    Bernardi calls for Turnbull to withdraw from Paris accord
    Senator Bernardi said the Government’s handling of the climate review showed the disconnect between politicians and the people fuelling a crisis of confidence with the major parties.
    “It was a clear attempt to reintroduce a price on hot air to satisfy the extreme Greens and others seduced by the socialist alarmism of anthropogenic climate change,” he said.
    Senator Bernardi called on Mr Turnbull to follow US President-elect Donald Trump’s lead and withdraw from the Paris Climate accord.
    “We don’t need to be part of an international agreement that actually impedes us from making determinations in our own best interest, particularly an agreement that won’t include the world’s largest economy,” he said…
    http://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2016-12-07/frydenberg-denies-backtrack-on-emissions-intensity-scheme/8099250

    when I noticed the inconsistencies in this story today, I just knew theirABC would be behind it.

    the whole Landers’ interview was like a set-up. everything she asked was from a CAGW activist perspective, as with everything else CAGW on their ABC.
    shut it down.

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  • #
    pat

    part 3:

    too difficult for Sky reporter to check to see if such a scheme is referenced in the Terms of Reference, I guess! plus, of course, there’s no backtracking on the review. what’s wrong with people who get paid to work for the FakeNewsMSM?

    Helen Dalley & Kieran Gilbert at the end of vid claim everyone wants a price on carbon – the Climate Authority, blah blah:

    VIDEO: 7 Dec: Sky News: Turnbull rules out introducing carbon tax
    Malcolm Turnbull has left Environment Minister Josh Frydenberg to answer why he backtracked on a review into climate change policy following concerns from backbench MPs.
    After telling the ABC on Monday an emissions intensity scheme was being looked at as part of the inquiry, the minister on Tuesday denied ever mentioning it and on Wednesday said one wouldn’t be introduced.
    Asked what changed over the 33 hours, the prime minister insisted there was ***no reference to the scheme in the terms of reference of the government’s review, which was previously announced by the Abbott government.
    ‘The review is business as usual,’ he told reporters at the Sydney Fish Markets.
    http://www.skynews.com.au/news/top-stories/2016/12/07/turnbull-rules-out-introducing-carbon-tax.html

    theirABC just keeps the FakeNews going:

    AUDIO: 7 Dec: ABC Breakfast: ‘More uncertainty and higher prices’ may be impact of emissions intensity scheme knockback: Wood
    It’s yet another closed door for Australia’s climate policy, with the government killing off any prospect of a carbon price for the electricity sector—the country’s biggest greenhouse polluter.
    Cabinet has backed down after a number of backbenchers spoke out against an emissions intensity scheme which they claimed would push up power prices.
    He (Tony Wood, the Grattan Institute’s Energy Program Director) says the scheme can’t be equated to a carbon tax as it ***doesn’t raise revenue.
    He says regardless of which mechanism is chosen by government, there ***will be some cost attached to reducing emissions…
    http://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/breakfast/'more-uncertainty-and-higher-prices'-emissions-knockback/8098800

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  • #
    ROM

    Seems like we have a bit more Global Warming under way.
    Just hope it is not the negative version of the fearsome and catastrophic Climate Change.

    [ USA Chicago ]
    Sunday’s snow sets record in several locations

    CHICAGO – The first snowfall to hit Illinois this fall was no polite dusting, but a record-breaking event.

    State Climatologist Jim Angel said Sunday’s snowfall total was the heaviest snow accumulation for a fall-winter season’s first snow at O’Hare International Airport and likely other sites as well.

    “It was the greatest first-of-the-season daily total for Chicago at O’Hare Airport,” Angel said. “That’s the biggest one-day jump to the winter snowfall season.”

    Sunday’s 6.4 inches of snowfall at O’Hare blew past the old Chicago record of 4.8 inches in November of 1940.

    Angel said the snow hit hardest near the Quad Cities, with some areas recording more than 9 inches.

    “In the Quad Cities, Davenport had 10.2 inches,” Angel said. “Several other sites also had very sizeable amounts all through that area.”
    &
    According to the National Weather Service, the 6.4 inches at O’Hare was only three-tenths of an inch away from the all-time single-day snow total. The previous record for snowfall on Dec. 4 at O’Hare was 4.6 inches in 1964.

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  • #
    pat

    ROM – some more gloBULL warming for you:

    7 Dec: UK Daily Mail: Get ready for the chill! Forecasters predict temperatures could fall 35 degrees BELOW average as a polar plunge sweeps across the country
    Forecasters say temperatures will take a massive plunge over the next few days
    Arctic winds are sweeping across the country in a massive jet stream this week
    Temperatures in some parts of the U.S. will be as much as 35 below average
    Snow’s forecast in the High Plains, and also the Mississippi Valley and northeast
    Even Texas will be chilly, will Dallas expected to have its coldest day since 2015
    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4006994/Polar-plunge-sweeping-country.html

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    pat

    6 Dec: Daily Caller: Peter Hasson: Journalists Struggle To Define ‘Fake News’ Even As They Declare War On It
    That some liberal journalists are lumping in legitimate news organizations alongside objectively false sites while at the same time calling for censorship of fake news has lead to concerns that the crackdown on fake news sites — the actual influence of which remains unknown — will be used by liberals to censor their conservative competitors…
    Forbes contributor Frank Miniter argued that some liberals are using the “fake news” controversy to invite “government control over First Amendment-protected speech or by asking Facebook and Twitter to become even bigger censors of certain views.”…
    In an interview with conservative site LifeZette, Media Research Center director of media analysis Tim Graham warned, “The danger here is that when liberals try to define ‘fake news,’ it can be defined as ‘fake angles,’ as in ‘things that should not be explored,’ like paying for protesters.”…
    “The mainstream media put itself on the 2016 presidential ballot, lost,” Nolte (The Daily Wire) wrote, “and now they want to silence competing ideas by smearing, marginalizing and, yes, blacklisting us as spreaders of Fake News.”
    http://dailycaller.com/2016/12/06/journalists-struggle-to-define-fake-news-even-as-they-declare-war-on-it/

    posted the above because theirABC had this complete rubbish last nite. 18 months of FakeNews from the monolithic pro-Clinton MSM & this is their post-eletion big FakeNews obsession:

    7 Dec: ABC: Overnights: Trevor Chappell: Fake News
    How can we decide what is ‘real’ news and what is fake? ***Since the American election social media has been on the defensive on this subject – what is really going on? Trevor Chappell discussed this with Filippo Menczer who is Professor of Computer Science and Informatics at Indiana University.
    Duration: 35min 46sec
    http://www.abc.net.au/radio/programs/overnights/fake-news/8099858

    Filippo appeals to a certain audience!

    The very real consequences of fake news stories and why your brain …
    PBS NewsHour-5 Dec. 2016
    Fake news comes in many flavors, like satire or intentional hoaxes, but computer scientist Filippo Menczer said

    Misinformation on social media: Can technology save us? by Filippo Menczer
    The Conversation – 28 Nov 2016
    If you get your news from social media, as most Americans do, you are exposed to a daily dose of hoaxes, rumors, conspiracy theories and misleading news. When it’s all mixed in with reliable information from honest sources, the truth can be very hard to discern.
    In fact, my research team’s analysis of data from Columbia University’s Emergent rumor tracker suggests that this misinformation is just as likely to go viral as reliable information…
    Disclosure: Filippo Menczer has received funding from the National Science Foundation, DARPA, Yahoo Research, and the ***J.S. McDonnell Foundation…

    ***Grant 1999: $1,000,000: From James S. McDonnell Foundation: To: Grantee: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany
    Researcher: Stefan Rahmstorf, Ph.D.GLOBAL & COMPLEX SYSTEMS
    https://www.jsmf.org/grants/1999033/

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  • #
    pat

    should have added it only took a little over 6 minutes for Filippo to tell ABC’s Trevor Chappell that Conservatives were more likely to fall for fake news and spread it around! another cute moment, Chappell asking Filippo if Trump criticising MSM caused his supporters to go to Fake News websites! lol.

    the few callers (from 20mins on) were mostly concerned about the US election coverage being more advocacy than journalism, and mentioned lack of trust in MSM.

    in closing, Chappell asked Filippo for advice, given there are going to be things about Climate Change, etc., “that are going to want to be affected by different political groups”. Filippo said yes, if we are misinformed, we will do huge damage to our world, including misinformation about subjects you mentioned, so we need to be sceptical! lol.

    FakeNewsABC at it again! why do I feel this is going to go on for years?

    7 Dec: ABC The World Today: Australia needs to be better prepared for an onslaught of ‘social bots’, researchers warn
    By Europe correspondent James Glenday
    Armies of bots can be programmed to retweet, post or like certain stories in an attempt to get an issue trending online, sell products, change public opinion or alter the momentum of a federal election campaign.
    They are often used maliciously to attack critics, like journalists, or make a point of view seem far more popular or mainstream than it actually is.
    Professor Philip Howard from Oxford University said national security issues are a magnet for bots…
    He has studied the use of bots in the lead up to Brexit, in Russia, Venezuela and the United States and his work shows Donald Trump’s army of bots performed better than Hillary Clinton’s during the lead-up to the presidential campaign.
    “The things that Trump says are easily turned into hashtags and memes,” Professor Howard said.
    “This makes it easier for people to take his quotable quotes, link with a news story or a ***fake news story and push out a negative message far and wide.”…
    Professor Howard is one of a number of researchers calling for electoral commissions and governments to investigate the issue and even regulate it…
    ***”We expect broadcasters … to carry political debates to give ***equal time to several political candidates. Facebook needs to be thinking of ways to contribute to public life not run it down.”
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-12-07/are-social-bots-a-threat-to-australian-democracy/8096120

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  • #
    Don Gaddes

    This paper shows a complete ignorance of the Solar-induced Orbital ‘Dry’ Cycles (X Factor,) and the relationship between these cycles, Volcanism and the Albedo Balance.
    Volcanism can produce Floods even under the overall influence of an X Factor-induced ‘Dry’ Cycle.
    Prevailing weather moves from West to East and towards the Poles,(Axial Spin.)
    Solar-induced Orbital ‘Dry’ Cycles move from East to West,(with the Earth’s Solar Orbit.) and affect the planet longitudinally.
    I don’t imagine volcanism reporting was very comprehensive in the 1430′s, certainly there were more than two eruptions in the Northern Hemisphere. Eruptions in Iceland would have affected Britain and Northern Europe most. ( Note the eruption of Eyjatjallajokull and the subsequent ‘snowing in’ of Heathrow Airport in 2010.)

    The influence of ‘albedo’ on the ‘Dry’ Cycles.

    There are various types of ‘albedo’ that affect the terrestrial influence of the ‘X Factor’ – and the subsequent Solar-induced orbital ‘Dry’ Cycle ‘foot-print’.
    1. Upper-atmosphere cloud/water vapour.
    2. Albedo effects of explosive volcanism and wind-blown dust.
    3. Various reflective albedo effects from surface factors, such as ice and snow, oceans, deserts and contaminants,) as well as intrusive human activity.
    4. Lower-level cloud/precipitation, (eg, storms and wind-blown ice and snow,)
    (See also, ‘effects of volcanism in producing low-pressure cells,’ pp71-72)

    Tipping the Albedo Balance

    When the effects of temperature rise and ‘Dry’ Cycle influence (caused by the ‘X Factor’ induced upper-atmosphere loss of cloud/water vapour albedo,) is surpassed by an increase in other albedo, (eg, effects of increased volcanism and wind-blown dust,) the planet is subject to a ‘cooling’ phase, (less snow/precipitation – but more sea-ice.) This ‘cooling’ state becomes self-perpetuating with the overall Albedo increase.
    This appears to have happened in the recent past – and would seem to be continuing, at an increasing rate.
    In the ‘Wet’/Normal Periods between ‘Dry’ Cycles, the ‘cooling’ would be exacerbated, (fall in temperature and increase in albedo produced by cloud/water vapour.)

    01

  • #
    Caligula Jones

    As the saying goes…a leftist is someone who sees something work in practise, but denies it because it shouldn’t work in theory.

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    Roy Hogue

    …climate models have no idea why

    Nor have they any idea why there even is a temperature. After all, a climate model is just a collection of algorithms. You build it to compute something based on your assumptions. You feed it your assumed data and it hands you back…well…er…exactly what?

    I keep remembering that a whole lot of what is dry ground at this exact moment was once predicted to be underwater at this exact moment by…ah…you guessed it, climate models. Yep! The algorithms did their job. Now we need to figure out what that job really is. I think some of them could be used as random number generators — maybe? They don’t do what they’re said to do, that’s for sure. ;-)

    Embarrassing for someone I think.

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    • #
      Lionell Griffith

      There you go again: insisting that the model output must match the measured data. Don’t you understand, it is the other way around? The measured data must match the model output. If it doesn’t, the measurement is wrong and must be corrected to improve the match. This is the post normal science way of doing things.

      Since, according to post normal science there is no such thing as truth that can be known, “what difference does it make now?” For those of us who live in a real world and not the thrice removed fantasy world of post normal science, it makes all the difference in the world. Ultimately, it’s a matter of life or death.

      01

      • #
        Roy Hogue

        Gee, Lionell. When I did a little modeling it was with the expectation that what the model predicted would in fact be the correct set of parameters in practice. And once the model’s method was incorporated into the software I did in fact check it to be sure it produced the correct result. Had it not I would have had to go back to the drawing board.

        I don’t know what you model that doesn’t assume the measured result will agree with the model but I hope you’re not staking your business success on it. ;-)

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        • #
          Lionell Griffith

          I don’t stake my business on assumptions. Especially not untested and unvalidated ones.

          I build a model based upon a carefully considered theory of operation of the real world thing to be modeled. I then test the model against measurements of a carefully designed and fabricated actual thing.

          The values within the two sets of data are what they are. Neither of which need correction. Both are a truthful representation of the entity that produced them.

          If the two data sets differ, It is the model, the design, the theory of operation, the measurement process, or the manufacture process that produced the thing hoped to be modeled that contains the errors. It is these errors that must be discovered and corrected until the results of the model and the measurements agree.

          To “correct” the measured results to agree with the modeled results is an attempt to rewrite reality. That works only in solipsistic science fantasy but fails to work in the real world. If your goal is to make something that works, you simply don’t do it.

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  • #
    Tristan

    “If something like this were coming in the near future, they couldn’t predict it.”

    That’s a long bow. We have a lot of contemporary data regarding the distribution of thermal energy throughout the climate system that we don’t have when trying to figure out what happened 600 years ago. Keep in mind that this has nothing to do with global temps either.

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    • #
      el gordo

      Most importantly, the two cool/wet decades ahead will prove beyond reasonable doubt that the warming of the 20th century and the plateau in temperatures up until now, have nothing to do with CO2.

      What happened in the 1430s gives us a glimpse of the future.

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  • #
    theRealUniverse

    Klimate models are nothing but fake fraudulent software designed (deliberately I’d guess) by clever programmers using fake models to ‘prove’ CO2 causes catastrophic global warming, re-named ‘climate change’. Of course these models have fallen over as the REAL world is of course a bit different from their fake physical universe.

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  • #
    Harry Twinotter

    Correct. It is not possible to model climate forcings if the forcings are unknown.

    It would be more interesting to know what the Global Mean Temperature was at the time.

    00