JoNova

A science presenter, writer, speaker & former TV host; author of The Skeptic's Handbook (over 200,000 copies distributed & available in 15 languages).


Handbooks

The Skeptics Handbook

Think it has been debunked? See here.

The Skeptics Handbook II

Climate Money Paper


Advertising

micropace


GoldNerds

The nerds have the numbers on precious metals investments on the ASX



Archives

Untreaded Weekend

Wherever you wander.

VN:F [1.9.22_1171]
Rating: 7.9/10 (25 votes cast)
Untreaded Weekend, 7.9 out of 10 based on 25 ratings

Tiny Url for this post: http://tinyurl.com/j2yl4lh

236 comments to Untreaded Weekend

  • #

    The Tasmanian Electricity Dilemma

    Electricity production has been based on hydro schemes since the 1900′s. The Duck Reach (1895-1955) gave Launceston its lighting before many other cities, and the dam at the southern end of the Great lake (circa 1915} provided water for the Waddamana station (1916-94). These developments were followed by more dams and stations on the Derwent river, the Poatina scheme, the Mersey-Forth stations, and finally the West coast developments in the 1970′s.

    In the mid 1960′s there was a drought and emergency measures were adopted. Afterwards the Bell Bay thermal station, using oil, was built to provide back-up for the Auminium smelter. This was replaced by Tamar Valley Power station which was recently taken out of service. However, it has been re-commissioned last week as a matter of urgency.

    BassLink

    An undersea cable was put across Bass St. connecting the island to the National Electricity Grid. The concept was to sell peak Hydro electricity and buy cheaper off peak coal fired electicity. In fact, this has turned out to be a lifeboat for Tasmania on several occasions. In October the CEO of Hydro Tasmania said they were going to rely on the cable for 40% of their needs until Winter due to low dam levels. However, in mid December the cable misfunctioned and it will be mid March before it can be restored. At the time storages were about 22%, with Lake Gordon minus 40m. and the great lake minus 17m. below spillways.

    Current Situation

    Reserves stabilised this week at 18 %, probably due to several factors, the TVPS coming on line, a little rain and a little wind in Bass St. boosting the 305 MW of wind turbines at Woolnorth annd Musselroe Bay. Hydro Tas. has also purchased 30 MW of gensets to be commissioned post-haste and is contemplating another 45MW.

    Although it has been a dryish Spring in NW and central Tas. this year average rainfall occurred in W and SW Tasmania where most dam catchments are, and it has been the same for the past 3 years according to the BOM rainfall maps. Rainfall totals of between 3600mm. and 7500mm. for the past 3 years , that is an annual rainfall of 1200 to 2500mm. can hardly be described as a drought. The annual rainfall for StrathGordon is 2500mm. and even receives 100-200mm. in January and February.

    Outcome

    With the TVPS in service and the 30MW of diesel gensets it seems that there will be enough electricity available until the Winter rains come. However, the policy of running down dam levels from 50% two years ago to below 25% in late Spring is very questionable.

    Hydro Tasmania prides itself on its green credentials, and yet was going to rely on Latrobe valley coal for 40% of its needs over Summer, and has had to re-commission the gas fired TVPS and buy in 30 MW of diesel generators to keep going which, in itself, is an expensive exercise.

    In the immediate term HT should use all the coal, gas and diesel electricity to build-up its lakes over the Winter to something reasonable and not sell a KWH until they do. This week it was also announced that HT was going to have discussions with Bell Bay Aluminium, its main customer, with a view to saving some electricity.

    As to the future it would seem that a better strategy would be not to let dam levels go below 40% at the beginning of Summer knowing they will refill over Winter.

    273

    • #
      Joe Lalonde

      Green energy was NEVER efficient energy.
      You NEED to study and understand the planet first before trying to harvest what you don’t understand.
      Turbines being a circle have different energy torques as you follow the radius.

      94

      • #
        Robk

        Joe,
        Green energy certainly has it’s issues. Turbine blades do have differing torque as you move from the center. This effect is compensated for in the design. In the case of wind turbines, a close inspection of the blade design will show it is larger at the root because the arc length is shorter. The pitch of the aerofoil is also flattened towards the tips as the angular velocity increases. That said, there are major issues because the wind velocity acting on a blade at the top of the circle is much greater than the velocity of a blade at the bottom (nearer the ground). There’s also a pulse as it passes the tower. Gas turbine blades are also pitched to accommodate the radius arc length and gas velocity.

        70

    • #

      How many countries in the world do exactly that, claim they are green by using someone else’s generated power?

      210

    • #
      Uncle Fred

      That is an excellent summary, Robert.
      Please allow me to fill in a few missing details.
      There is more to TVPS than the gas fired combined cycle base load machine of 208 Mw nominal capacity.
      TVPS is comprised of a gas fired simple cycle peaking station in addition to the base load machine, of 180 Mw nominal capacity.
      The 60 Mw RR Trent 60 WLE prime mover has been out of the country for four months. With the announcement to “sell” the M701D, rumour had it that if a buyer could be found overseas the Trent wasn’t coming back. The electricity generation “climate” changed dramatically with the failure of the HVDC marine cable of course. As reported in the Mercury recently, HT is ready to move heaven and Earth to get it back in March. Opposition “leader” Bryan Green speculates that expediting the return costs a cool million, but that is pure conjecture. The whole story has more intrigue than a James Bond thriller.
      In the last electricity crisis in 2000, caused by delays in commissioning the Bass Link, HT purchased four machines from a US scrap merchant and managed to assemble three units from the parts. By the time they were even barely operational, Bass Link was commissioned. Hydro pawned these off to Aurora in 2006. They were strategically important to Aurora, and kept in pretty good nick until mid-2013, when HT procured them again with the acquisition of the entire facility. HT converted them to synchronous condensers for power factor correction and voltage control. They are currently configured for electricity production. At least one of these has very serious issues, and rumour has it that HT intends to address these post haste. So in a month or so, TVPS might be back to the same 388 Mw capability that was there mid 2013.
      In the nineties, the establishment favoured Alinta’s proposal to construct gas-fired electricity generation, in order to justify the construction of the Tasmanian Gas Pipeline. When ownership of the asset transferred to Hydro in 2013, the decision not to take gas for electricity generation seriously affected the economics of the natural gas business model in Tasmania. Hydro swallowed the Kool-aid in immense quantities and bought the AGW scam hook, line, and sinker. Corporate policy dictated that energy must be renewable, and to Hell with the cost, the bird stikes, the noise, and the availability and reliability issues.

      200

      • #
        Peter B

        Can anyone give a background to the real need or not of the cancelled Gordon below Franklin Dam as to the efficacy of an efficient Tasmanian Hydro system. It would seem that if the planners thought there was a need for such a large dam in the initial system design then this last omission would mean the system was always deficient and/or at risk of shortages in any dry period (the last of which I believe was in the ’60s.)

        60

        • #
          Rod Stuart

          Peter, I can try to answer this question.
          I have a 12V gate opener which operates on two 10 watt PV panels. On a sunny summer day they produce about 8 ampere-hours. Of course not all days are sunny and winter days are short, so over the period of a year probably make an average about 4 ampere-hours per day available. Energy not stored is simply not used. (You might say that the excess sunlight is “spilled”)
          The gate opener is 50 W and operates for about 30 seconds per cycle, so if the gate operates twelve cycles per day, it consumes about 50/12*12/60 or about one ampere hour per day.
          If I had a typical storage battery for a gate opener of about 12 ampere-hours, the gate would operate for at least a week with no sun whatsoever. As long as the sun continues to shine, and the gate is not required to operate many more times than intended, the storage battery remains fully charged (or nearly so).
          However, I have two 100 ampere-hour automotive batteries on the gate. Even if the sun never shone, the gate would still operate for about six months.
          Hydro electricity generation is in some respects similar, because the energy is stored as a large volume of water at some head of penstock above the hydraulic turbines. As long as the rain replenishes the storage reservoir as fast or faster that the generating station uses it, the storage level remains relatively constant and the system never runs out of water.
          Well-designed hydro-electric schemes have enormous watersheds and voluminous storage. The Peace River scheme in Norther British Columbia is an example. The scheme has a capacity of about 3000 Mw, and a water shed of some 150,000 square kilometres. The Williston reservoir is nearly 2,000 square kilometres in size and averages 600 feet deep. It is backed up by the world’s largest earthen dam. Even so, normal annual variations in precipitation, particular winter snow, mean that the water level varies from spilling to perhaps a hundred feet below the dam, in the extreme.
          In comparison, more than 30% of Hydro Tasmania’s capacity is in run-of-river power station with no storage at all. The storage reservoirs are ample for the island’s requirements most of the time. The State government in the 1970’s had a vison of economic expansion, and recognised that abundant in-expensive energy was the best way to achieve that growth. A world class scheme on the Gordon River would provide the engine for that economic growth. Unfortunately, a minority of renegade operatives were opposed to economic growth, and through heaps of propaganda with the help of the news media, (and Canberra) were successful through misinformation, disinformation, and downright lies able to convince a particularly gullible public that growth in blueberry production and underwater basket weaving projects were far more “cool” than industry.
          So the answer to your question boils down to cause and effect. On the one hand, a person can argue that the State is the economic basket case that it is because the Franklin dam was not built. The State needed large energy intensive industry in order to prosper and take the place of a dying orchard industry. On the other hand, one could argue that the reason the island became the Newfoundland of Australia was because the Green Glob impeded any sort of progress at each and every opportunity, and opposing the construction of the Franklin dam was only the Brown tip of the iceberg.

          122

        • #
          Rod Stuart

          As an addendum I can add that the Tamar Valley pulp mill, as designed, included a 200Mw steam turbine generator set.
          In fact this equipment had to be procured well ahead of construction and the equipment was actually delivered to the Port of Bell Bay.
          The energy source was of course biomass, (wood waste) consisting of black liquor and wane.
          The equipment was sized to make use of the available fuel. The intent was that about 180 Mw (the size of the proposed Franklin Dam project thirty years earlier) available to the electricity grid.
          The pulp mill of course was shanghaied by the Green Glob. You could say that it couldn’t get past the financial hurdle, and it was Gunn’s mismanagement, but you would be wrong.
          Even with the support of the State government, elected by the majority of the citizens, the endless demands for more and more studies, as well as the illegal interference with traffic in and out of the site eventually made it impossible for Gunn’s to continue. The endless chattering of the whingeing minority again dug a grave for the State’s prosperity.

          143

          • #

            I can see the corpse of the pulp mill from my window.

            30

          • #

            I’ve visited Tasmania at least a dozen times and it’s a truly lovely place and the people are wonderful, at least the ones that that wash and shave regularly. Unfortunately, the place has become a nature reserve and sometimes I wonder if it’s possible to bequeath an island to the UN or such to fully look after. Tasmania is pushing for an increase in GST, so that their welfare coffers increase substantially. This simply can’t go on.

            40

    • #
      Leigh

      RO, I’ve stated the bleedingly obvious that many times I really feel like giving up…..but I won’t
      When controlling “authoritys” of these water storages/catchments continue to run releases out them at near flood levels through winter under the guise of “inviromental” flows is simply insane. Then have the absolute temerity to state low rainfall as the cause of lack of supply to irrigators and hydro production during summer is nothing short of a lie, incompetence or both.
      From the snowy mountains scheme to Hume and other dams below it, its not what these storages were designed for.
      They are catchment dams designed to store water for summer months and bad times.
      The simply have to cut the outflows based on BOM’s highly questionable crystal ball gazings and full palm readings of last winters forcast and this winters of below average rainfall.
      These controlling authoritys say the have a “formula” that dictates the releases.
      I’m no scientist or mathematician but really, do you need a phd to see the bleedingly obvious?!

      101

      • #

        There are very little environmental flows, if any, coming out of the Hydro storages and as well little irrigation dependent on them. Some of the outflow of Poatina station is used for the Cressy irrigation project; this happens after the turbines in Summertime. Otherwise, irrigation water is pumped directly out of the rivers, the Derwent, the South Esk, etc. There are irrigation schemes on the Coal and Meander rivers but these have nothing to do with Hydro Tasmania. The West coast schemes do not supply any irrigation water as there are no farms and the water either goes through the turbines or over the spillways. The West coast of Tasmania is a very wet climate, e.g. StrathGordon has an annual rainfall of 2500mm.

        The Hydro’s problem appears to be that they sold too much peak electricity to the National Grid and didn’t keep enough in reserve, and then the cable became U/S.

        70

        • #
          Leigh

          Understood RO but for what ever reason these “management authoritys” care to offer, both your original post and mine appear to point to the very same problem.
          Mismanagement.

          20

          • #

            That’s a reasonable conclusion, but HT must have been under a lot of pressure to help with the State budget no doubt. I don’t think one can divorce the actions of government entities and government.

            The chairman of HT is David Crean, brother of Simon and son of Frank Crean a former Federal Labor politican. Dr. Crean was a member of the Tas. Legislative Council but retired due to ill-health I believe before joining the HT board. At that time a Labor government was in power.

            10

      • #
        mark

        The solution is also bleeding obvious…

        Dams above 70% in summer…outflows equal inflows. Winter, outflows to ensure levels for seasonal rain catchment.

        Dams below 70% in summer…no outflows! Winter no outflows till dam reaches 70%.

        No environmental flows in any season. The dams are there for human use first and foremost.
        If the antihumans do not like this they can go live on a desert island.

        41

  • #
    Joe Lalonde

    It looks like the US economy is tanking again.
    Physical gold is pretty much sold out leaving the futures holders of 542 ounces to a single ounce of gold.
    Our fiat currency will just keep inflating on physical goods as our governments follow the US into the economic toilet.
    Governing people should have been what our governments do instead of imposing laws and becoming a business.
    Following what is in the US best interest and NOT our own countries best interest.

    91

    • #
      Rereke Whakaaro

      The population in general, has a choice:

      You can have private enterprise provide your services, accepting that there will be a profit margin, as a necessity.

      Or you can have Government provide your services, accepting that there will be a lot of wasted bureaucratic effort and inefficiency, as a necessity.

      Same result – different path.

      171

      • #
        Joe Lalonde

        Profit margins then generate an inflation as prices continue to rise.
        You need a balance system of income to expenses, which we currently are vastly inequitable today.
        Funny how American leaders…poor starting out become part of the rich upper percentage…bias and corrupt?
        Obama is a perfect example of hope that became corrupted by our current system…he would have been crushed had he not changed.

        63

      • #
        Rollo

        Is a multitude of private companies, selling the same electrons via the same wires, more efficient than a (big inefficient)state run power company? I’ve yet to be convinced.

        40

        • #
          Rollo

          I forgot to mention the myriad of rent-seekers getting commission for convincing you to change power companies.

          30

          • #
            TdeF

            Yes. A monopoly charges what it likes. So will a government. As in a previous report by Jo, wholesale electricity can be as little as 4c a kw/hr. You will pay 24c. That’s 600%!
            The markups are fantastic. Only distribution competition will bring that down and for one, our energy costs have halved with shopping.

            For governments, they need to get out of providing chargeable services as they have entirely the wrong motivation, seeing the bureaucracy as the point, not the service. So why does the SBS even exist given the internet and satellites? The government needs to look after defence, foreign exchange, police, essential services and not electricity, railways, gas, coal, airports, public housing, freeways,…

            Specifically the ABC would be illegal if it were private and would have to be broken up, for the very reason that such size and reach is considered by our laws to have undue influence on people and so on politicians. In the light of satellite measurement and automatic measurement, the BOM should be reviewed as well. The CSIRO like the SBS and ABC are anachronisms whose very reason for existence is gone. As Mark Scott said, we are not a third world country and do not need government media. Sell them all. Balance the budget. Hand out free tax incentives if you want to steer companies and prevent monopolies, such as the government ones. Prosecute people who conspire to fix prices, as with APM and VISY. Better still break up and sell the government monopolies. Only this will improve quality and cost of services.

            102

  • #

    There has been a discussion about how the satellite and balloon temperature data are close showing no rises in temperature as opposed to other sources or modelling.

    But to augment the first two sets (satellite, balloons), are the recordings at different and high altitudes by the enormous number of aircraft ever used?

    I haven’t flown very much at all but the few times I did the captain would announce the speed of the plane and the outside temperature.

    Do pilots still announce this? Anyway, even if they don’t the aircraft’s external temperature measurements would surely be of use to climate scientists or those interested in the subject.

    70

    • #
      Joe Lalonde

      Temperature data was NEVER invented as a use for science.
      I live close to a huge lake and a different temperature reading in my car of 2 degrees most of the time at the bottom of an 30 meter hill.
      Water loss to space was never considered which has increased our landmass and generated an imbalance of our orb which has generated our wobble.

      95

    • #
      Rereke Whakaaro

      That is a good question.

      I think the problem with using aircraft would be one of calibration.

      Remember, we are told that temperature is increasing by 0.14oC per decade. To reach a figure that accurate, you need to do your measurements and calculations to at least an order of precision higher than the result. Thus you need to be able to measure temperature to one thousandth of a degree, which requires the measuring device to be calibrated to one ten-thousandth of a degree Centigrade.

      Having all of the worlds’ aircraft calibrated to that precision would be a mammoth effort, and a lot of countries could probably not be able to afford the constant effort required to keep the measuring devices within specification.

      It is probably better to listen to how cold it is outside, and think, “I hope this window is stuck in tight. I wouldn’t want it to fall out, if it is that cold”.

      61

      • #

        OK. But then that begs my question why do those either for against the theory (whatever) of global warming aka climate change refer to balloon recordings? Jonnenova and others have referred to balloon recordings as being in the millions over time. I’m not sure but I wouldn’t think balloons would record to the 1000th or 10 000th degree either. So do all the balloon measurements get tossed into the bin too?

        70

        • #
          Watt

          Weather balloons are scientific instruments.
          Thermometers on planes are possibly not maintained any better than the one in your car.

          60

          • #
            Annie

            But do you know that to be so?

            10

            • #
              Watt

              No evidence i’m afraid. Need to look into it if it looks like a goer.

              00

              • #
                James

                A working thermometer on a plane is required for instrument flight. The thermometer is needed so if ice starts to accumulate on the plane, the pilot can descend below the freezing level where it will melt. I am not aware of any requirement to calibrate the thermometer, it just has to be present and working.

                You could check the regulations to confirm this. Are there any instrument rated pilots who can confirm this here?

                10

              • #
                Annie

                I’ve asked for an answer from the horse’s mouth (commercial pilot son).

                00

              • #
                Annie

                James, I’ve just had an answer.

                He says that “the ADRs or Air Data Recorders are extremely accurate and measure both SAT (Static Air Temperature) and TAT(Total Air Temperature-due to kinetic heating from the impact of the air at speed). All commercial aircraft have ice detectors too of various kinds but I personally find that one of the first places on a plane to see icing is the windscreen wipers!!! The ADRs of course are not found on little GA types, I’m only referring to larger turboprops and jets!”.

                00

        • #
          Rereke Whakaaro

          That is an interesting question, is it not?

          Of course, the instruments are nowhere as accurate as I imply. But they would need to be, if the publicity machine wants to quote temperature change in hundredths of a degree as a way of avoiding the fact that there has been zero warming in decades, plus or minus instrumentation errors and “noise”.

          Of course we cannot prove a negative. But we can call an illogical false positive to account. Welcome to the world of smoke and mirrors.

          80

        • #
          TdeF

          An interesting idea. Accuracy is only one point and temperature just one variable. I can only guess that what scientific measurement balloons are trying to measure is potentially much more than just the temperature at a specific altitude and location. Wind direction (balloons blow with the wind effectively measuring wind speed precisely), temperature above and below the balloon by spectral analysis, pressure, humidity, chemical composition, trace elements and perhaps exotics like bacteria, C14, CO2, NO2 and specific compounds. Just temperature in a plane doing 1,000km/hr (That’s a km ever six seconds) at a very specific altitude is not as useful and potentially hard even to interpret because of heating, speed of collection where even the location is rapidly changing and there is no vertical profile or relation to local conditions. I would think the profile of all these things vertically is terribly important as the air currents move in quite separate layers, as hot air balloon people know. Lastly I guess they fly fixed routes, especially over Australia, so the coverage is very poor. Still it is an interesting idea. I suspect the airlines ultimately rely on the balloon data for their forecasts.

          40

    • #
      Sceptical Sam

      We forget just how cold it is.

      I was at 11,880 metres over Port Hedland last week. It was -52°C according to in in flight data read out.

      On the ground it was around 36°C.

      70

    • #
      Lewis P Buckingham

      The fundamental problem is that the differences between published measurements cannot be reconciled by instrument error.
      The corollary is that some data bases cannot be trustworthy.
      Adding another source of instrumentation on say selected carriers, still leaves us with that same problem.
      Who and what do we trust?
      The balloons and satellites were always seen to be state of the art and good until they started to disagree with the land based homogenised observations.
      It would be years before a new method of temperature recording could be verified so would be of little use for a long while.
      We need to insist that raw data, before homogenisation, be published, especially by the BOM, so that it may be independently analysed.

      81

    • #
      Annie

      Pilots don’t need to tell you, on Emirates at least. There are non stop ‘Airshows’ that give you all this information together with a moving map.

      20

      • #
        Watt

        It is often better entertainment than the inflight movie selection. I mean realising where you are can be quite amazing if you think about it.

        20

        • #
          Annie

          Yes, the air show is my usual channel, at the same time as listening to some early choral music. I then know when to take a good look at the Maldives if the weather and time of day are suitable!

          I sometimes go for some nostalgia and watch ‘The Man From Snowy River’ or ‘The Sound Of Music’. Sad, isn’t it?!

          00

          • #
            Roy Hogue

            Annie and anyone interested,

            Try this for size, almost everything in the air over the united states in real time. Now that’s a map of where everyone is. If it’s big enough to have an IFR (instrument flight rules) flight plan then it’s probably there.

            You can move it around with the mouse to any part of the world and bookmark its modified URL so it comes back up centered on whatever you want.

            10

            • #
              Roy Hogue

              But personally I would prefer The Man From Snowy River or The Sound of Music. Those are both good movies that bear repeating every now and then.

              10

            • #
              Annie

              I’ll take a look at that Roy. I sometimes ‘watch’ our son on one of his flights on Flightradar24free. He loves flying to JFK and other places in the US and to MEL and BNE here in Aus.

              00

            • #
              Annie

              LOL…that’s funny Roy, I see FR was what you linked to!

              00

              • #
                Roy Hogue

                Sorry about that but I had no way to make the right connection.

                FR is boring to just sit and watch but I bring it up at different times of day, especially early in the morning and you can watch the traffic density go up as morning progresses and then go down again as night comes on. But the air above us never sleeps.

                00

    • #
      poitsplace

      The problem with the lack of warming in both the balloon and satellite data is that everything we know about warming in general…suggests that the warming should be felt disproportionately at higher altitudes, culminating in the (missing) “hot spot”.

      And it is in fact true that no “hot spot” can be found. This suggests there is a bit of a problem with our understanding, the data, or that the nature of the issue is different than we realize. Personally, I tend to believe what’s happened is that there is in fact some natural warming, along with some anthropogenic warming…but that the whole surface record is tainted by urban heat island in a way that makes it impossible to remove. Basically they keep moving stations and because they attempt to stitch it into a single record, they assume it was changing everywhere (including where its eventually moved) and just continue that warming trend as new UHI invades that new location.

      40

    • #
      tom0mason

      In aircraft altitude is a calculated from air pressure and temperature data from a probe sampling the outside air. The raw data from this external probe is corrected then used to calculate this altitude figure.
      Typical pressure and temperature probe specification for high performance jet aircraft is given HERE. (200kB PDF)
      Note for this probe the calibrated spec for temperature is +/- 1°C.

      I can not imagine commercial aircraft using equipment better than this, though I may be proved wrong…

      10

  • #
    Carbon500

    It’s been an interesting couple of weeks for me. Two friends raised the subject of man-made dangerous global warming, both believe it to be true, indeed, one thought it the most important issue facing humanity.
    They wanted to know why I thought the whole thing to be anything but a threat. One seemed very surprised at my views. I emailed plenty of data. Long story short, one looked at my comments and graphs plus data, and I could tell that my lengthy emails had been read. I think she’ll be looking further and objectively into it all.
    The other friend declared that he wasn’t much of one for figures, but why question all the experts? – despite my explanation of the 97% fraud, plus the UAH and RSS satellite graphs of temperature! That said, he likes an argument, full stop. Can’t win ‘em all, I suppose.
    No friendships were harmed in this exchange, and we’re still talking to one another!
    I’m after a copy of Professor Robert Carter’s ‘Climate-The Counter Consensus’. I’ve given two away. Now out of print, the asking prices on the internet for secondhand copies are ridiculous – nearly $100! I suppose this means that the book’s well regarded. I’ll keep looking.

    110

    • #
      Sinoman

      Carbon500, this wonderful book is available at Amazon. A kindle version is less than $10.
      A hard copy from $50.
      I have the kindle version, which I reference frequently.
      This is a book all should own , read and refer too.

      50

  • #
    Another Ian

    “Untreaded Weekend”

    Bare feet then?

    70

  • #
    James Murphy

    Calibration issues aside, I think it’s a smart concept.

    In its favour: The high volume of regular air traffic, the relatively limited types of planes which fly certain routes regularly, comparatively rigorous parts/maintenance tracking, leading to known sensor type/models and locations on each plane.

    I guess temperature data is already recorded at various points on the plane, along with all the requisite context (date/time, lat/long (or eastings/northings), altitude, air pressure, plane brand/model, etc..) but…I wonder how long it is kept before being overwritten? There’s the famous ‘black box’ flight recorder, but I imagine it would not be the only telemetry recorder on the plane…?

    Surely it’s of equal value/interest to the concept of seawater temperatures recorded by ships? it might not provide a really good level of precision, but it isn’t completely useless.

    (Of course I am assuming all this data would be used, not abused… allow me that flight of fancy just this once)

    71

    • #
      James Murphy

      this was supposed to be a response to #3… I must have pushed the wrong button again.

      20

    • #
      RB

      Air warms up as its compressed and cools when it expands so you have an effect with airflow around the jet. Could you correct for it to see a quarter of a degree warming in two decades of data? Doubtful.

      20

      • #
        RB

        Silly question. It will be corrected to show 2.8°C/century of warming.

        10

      • #
        James Murphy

        I’m not necessarily talking about using the data in the context of “global warming”. I just think the concept – the data source has some merit, and whilst it may not have 1, or 2 decimal place precision, there is most likely some value in it.

        20

    • #
      ROM

      You won’t find too much aviation traffic operating at 500 feet or 5000 feet or 25,000 feet but maybe at 35,000 feet on up in the middle of the Atlantic, the Pacific and the Arctic oceans.
      You won’t find hardly anything operating aviation wise at all at any level across the southern Indian Ocean let alone in the Southern Pacific and none worth talking about in the Southern Ocean around Antarctica.

      At roughly 30,000 feet you are at the Tropopause, the interface between the ground to 30,000 feet Troposphere with its falling temperature with height, the quite variable in time and location, Tropospheric “Lapse rate” which as it varies in location and range and is both a driver and an indicator of the types of weather systems developing at ground level including the micro systems such as Thunderstorms, dry weather, Frontal systems with two different lapse rates existing, one before and a different one after the passage of the front be it a cold front or a warm front.

      Lapse rates, the rate of change in the way air cools with increasing height, is a major weather indicator and weather driver below the roughly 30,000 ft [10 kms ] height of the Tropopause.

      Above the Tropopause at around 30,000 feet altitude and where most of the weather we are familiar with at ground level ceases to be a significant factor, [ King Thunderstorms to 70,000 feet , Mountain Lee waves and upper air turbulence from wind shear often connected to the very high velocity globe circling stratospheric jet streams plus a few other phenomena are the exceptions with jet streams being a major factor in macro weather developments ] which is mostly below the heights where all the trans oceanic and a lot of trans land commercial aircraft operate we have the beginnings of the Stratosphere where temperature increases with height until at about 50 kms ie 150,000 feet altitude begins the Mesosphere where temperature begins to fall again with further increases in altitude.

      Commercial aircraft thermometers are important pieces of equipment as jet fuel consumption and take off lengths are related to the density of the air which is a function of both height and temperature and which can vary by a number of degrees at lower levels but less so above the Tropopause where most airliners and long distance commercial and military and corporate aircraft operate.

      If you want to use the big jets to keep tabs on temperature changes then you will mostly only record low Stratosphere altitude temperatures which are linked on a macro scale but barely if at all, related to the rapid variations in the Troposphere temperatures.
      And those Stratospheric temperatures will be going up, not down, with further increases in height

      If you want to use the puddle jumpers at their low flying altitudes for temperature monitoring purposes, don’t bother.
      Just use a car thermometer .
      It will be as accurate and just as reliably read by the car driver as by any low level oil burning hole punchers.

      Mind you all of the above is before allowance is made for any NCDC “Karl type adjustments” that might / will be applied!

      http://www.weather-climate.org.uk/02.php

      81

      • #
        James Murphy

        Well… If someone handed me raw telemetry from, say 2 years of flights, I would look at it, just to see what I could see in terms of trends/patterns – before making any assumptions or interpretations. Obviously there are inherent limitations with regards to the measurements, and the scope of application, but…

        How does anyone know if this type of data is worth looking at, if it hasn’t been looked at?

        I remain unwilling to dismiss aircraft telemetry as a valid data source for some sort of atmospheric behaviour trends until such time as someone can show me that it is useless.

        20

        • #
          Geoff Sherrington

          Two pregnant possibilities.
          . develop more useful actual lapse curves so you have to choose less between dry, wet and environmental
          . examine the potential for fitting msu devices to aircraft to supplement the satellite data. I have not thought about this.
          Geoff

          00

  • #
    Bob

    Untreaded weekend? Don’t tread on me!

    40

    • #
      scaper...

      An invitation to discuss politically incorrect topics, maybe?

      50

      • #
        Yonniestone

        Everything is considered Un-PC now so fire all your guns at once and explode into space.

        60

      • #
        el gordo

        Treading lightly, Malcolm is articulate and explains government thinking clearly on a whole range of issues. Tony didn’t have this capacity.

        47

        • #
          Rollo

          Malcolm is articulate and explains government thinking clearly

          Trouble is most of us fall asleep or turn off before Lord Waffle finishes what he is saying

          130

          • #
            el gordo

            His minders are working on that.

            40

          • #
            bobl

            He talks a lot but says nothing. All the action in this term occurred under TA, Chairman Mal has done nothing useful…. big flop

            110

            • #
              el gordo

              Yep, Tony did the hard yards, but ultimately the Coalition may have faced defeat if Mal hadn’t taken the reins.

              He’s Mr Consensus and intends staying in power for a long time, like Menzies. The Nats should keep him honest, but its a difficult game to predict.

              Tony won’t be coming back as leader so we need to convince Malcolm, Hunt and Bishop, that the skeptics are right about climate change.

              According to the latest polls he isn’t a flop with the electorate.

              34

              • #
                clive

                El Gordo,the Canning bye-election says otherwise.If Abbott had been on the nose,the election would have been a disaster for the Libs.It was not.The polls were supposed to be saying the Libs would lose.They did not.
                There is an old saying”Never conduct a poll,unless you know what the result will be”

                60

              • #
                el gordo

                Canning was won by the best candidate, regardless of the leadership blue in Canberra.

                The general election is an entirely different ball game and there were enough Liberal MPs prepared to change their leader to save their seats. Malcolm’s popularity gives the Coalition confidence to go on and win by a length from Bill’s Labor.

                03

              • #
                gigdiary

                According to the latest polls he isn’t a flop with the electorate

                Much of his support comes from Greens and Labor voters who will never vote Coalition. He may not be a flop with the electorate, but many of them will never vote for the Party he represents.

                20

          • #
            TdeF

            The Liberal’s Malcolm Rudd where Morrison is Wayne Morrison. The only change is that Julie Bishop is not plotting against Malcolm instead of Tony.

            50

            • #
              TdeF

              The Liberal’s Malcolm Rudd where Morrison is Wayne Morrison. The only change is that Julie Bishop is now plotting against Malcolm instead of Tony.

              30

              • #
                el gordo

                Nobody is plotting against Malcolm, yet.

                03

              • #
                el gordo

                ‘Some brutal things have been said about Malcolm Turnbull during his long career in public life – that he’s narcissistic, bullying, volatile, duplicitous, disingenuous – but no-one has yet proposed that he is certifiably insane.

                ‘He may be certifiably insane. We will soon see.’

                Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/comment/is-malcolm-turnbull-insane-we-shall-soon-find-out-20160207-gmnqky.html#ixzz3zWK5KPiz
                Follow us: @smh on Twitter | sydneymorningherald on Facebook

                11

              • #
                Dave

                Malcolm is also an environmental vandal

                He made millions $ out of Marovo Lagoon mass logging operation with him the chairman of a company called Axiom Holdings!

                It was under Malcolms time as chair that the company boosted its activities and profits, with devastating consequences on the environment.

                The damming AusAID reports only detailed Integrated Forest Industries, Rural Industries, Silvania Products and Isabel Timber Co. But these were Axiom subsidiary companies run by Malcolm!

                Only GREEN when there’s money in it!

                I think people can see though his veneer of imported ego (forestry approved of course).

                Rollo – Lord Waffle of Piper is a great title. I’ve stolen it, thank you!

                90

              • #
                TdeF

                Of course they are all plotting against Malcolm! His enemies are growing by the day. Malcolm has smashed the rule that you did not act against the PM in the Liberal party and had the cheek to announce that the Liberal party was not factional. This was greeted by jeers and laughter. It is currently being torn apart by factions, all taking their lead from the three plotters who worked so tirelessly to unseat Abbott. Malcolm hardly cares. He would rather vote Labor or Green but he is too rich for either. Anyone who has shown any support for Abbott has been dispatched and despite his vast expertise, Abbott has no part in the ministry. Turnbull knows what a disloyal minister can achieve.

                80

              • #
                el gordo

                The NSW Moderates are causing a pre-selection ruckus entangling the PM, but I don’t see any movement beyond that.

                Reading through Dave’s comment on Malcolm’s history you would have to wonder whether democracy is all that its cracked up to be. Career politicians are deeply into factional groupthink, its the only way to the top.

                And I’m well aware that Malcolm is typical of the ilk.

                20

        • #
          gigdiary

          The first red thumb is mine.

          41

          • #
            Rereke Whakaaro

            Are you claiming to have found the one, true, original red thumb?

            That is an icon to the silent trolls. They will bow down before you, and worship at your feet.

            I just hope you are wearing clean socks, for their sakes.

            71

            • #
              gigdiary

              Rereke, I was replying to El Gordo’s comment and was proud to own up to being his first red thumb. While I may not have yet won the arseless chaps on Catallaxy, I do have clean socks.

              10

        • #
          Roy Hogue

          Malcolm is articulate and explains government thinking clearly on a whole range of issues. Tony didn’t have this capacity.

          In my experience articulate doesn’t necessarily mean he’s explaining something useful or even correct. President Obama can be very articulate while making no sense at all.

          80

          • #
            Rereke Whakaaro

            Obama’s primary skill, is managing to sound articulate when reading a teleprompter, in such a way, that people forget that he is just reading a teleprompter. Is he reading his own words? Who knows?

            80

            • #
              Roy Hogue

              RW,

              I’m not even sure he’s reading his ideas, even if they are expressed in the words of someone else. I think it may be that Valerie Jarrett is the real president of the U.S. But who can tell? The White House is a mystery to many people, some a lot more savvy about its internal workings than I am.

              40

              • #
                Roy Hogue

                His stumbling, hesitant speaking style when forced to go it alone may be a giveaway that he’s not able to come up with anything on his own.

                50

      • #
        mc

        I’ll have a go at political incorrectness.

        Politically correct; what a strange, bizarre phrase, politically correct for who, in relation to what? The word political is non-denominational. Since when did the word political represent a set of universal standards and values, true of all people in all places at all times. If you were to use the phrase liberal correctness or conservative correctness you’d be starting to make some sense but to say something is politically correct makes no sense at all, unless you qualify the term with an indication of what set of values the thing is correct in relation to. Since the word political does not refer to any one school of thought then the most concise meaning we can extract from the term politically correct is, “correct within a given political ideology”. It only makes sense if we use the phrase and then further define it by saying something is politically correct from this or that political point of view.

        That is not the way the term has typically been used though. I remember being asked many years ago by a uni student friend what I thought about political correctness. It was hard to know at the time because it was a relatively new phrase, in my world its meaning had not yet begun to reveal itself to any great extent. My attitude towards PC was, somewhat suspicious but naive, and like so many of the non-tertiary- educated, non-political classes, why wouldn’t I have been naive, the term is packed with meaning but on its own gives nothing away. It quite simply makes the suggestion that there is such a thing as a political attitude which is universally proper and correct which is bunkum.

        Politically correct is an oxymoron, political is non-denominational, multifaceted, all inclusive and diverse in its meaning. Correct refers to the opposite; something specific, something singular, there is a right way and a wrong way.

        If there is a set of political values which seeks to impose itself everywhere, for all people, then it behaves like an intolerant fundamentalist religious creed. People are diverse in their values and beliefs; to suggest that a particular set of values applies to all people is an intellectual lie. Political correctness in that sense, in the universal sense does not exist, and to the extent that it tries to gain that status it is incorrect to refer to it as political correctness, no, political coercion is what it is and that is its proper name, Political Coercion.

        101

        • #
          el gordo

          Rubio would be politically incorrect in Australia, but in America its a different culture.

          http://thinkprogress.org/politics/2016/02/02/3745336/rubio-not-moderate/

          20

        • #
          Robk

          I agree, when someone says something is politically incorrect they mean it doesn’t comply with their world view.

          50

          • #
            el gordo

            In the land of Oz its politically incorrect (loss of votes) for our politicians to talk about the deity in this fashion.

            (CNSNews.com) – Sen. Marco Rubio, asked about his “electability” at Thursday night’s debate, brushed off the moderator’s reminder that Time magazine once labeled Rubio “the Republican savior.”

            “Well, let me be clear about one thing, there’s only one Savior and it’s not me. It’s Jesus Christ who came down to earth and died for our sins,” Rubio responded.

            20

        • #
          Rereke Whakaaro

          Sorry, you should say, “politically correct for whom, in relation to …

          31

          • #
            mc

            Yes I know Rereke, I let it go for fear of seeming pedantic, but now that I know you’re patrolling this site on the lookout for bad grammar, wielding the scary knuckle smacking ruler, I will have to think twice before flouting the rules. Cheers.

            20

            • #
              mc

              Then again, rereading my original comment, the whole thing was pretty pedantic. To paraphrase Charlie Chaplin, “Writers search for rejection. If they don’t get, it they reject themselves.”

              10

        • #
          Annie

          Political Coercion…Political Bullying.

          10

    • #
      Matty

      Is that why were discussing planes ?

      40

    • #
      James Murphy

      perhaps better than a retreaded weekend?

      Are retread tyres still legal in Australia…? I had some vague notion that they were not.

      20

  • #
    Joe Lalonde

    Wonder why metal feels colder at the same temperature as other materials?

    Nitrogen gas…very fascinating gas and is the ONLY gas that cannot burn…why?

    It has to come from the sun as the exhaust. It is hard to determine what the sun is made off when it is constantly being bombarded by materials…burned and spewed back out.

    Nitrogen gas is the ONLY reason our atmosphere is not on fire today…
    It is highly reactive to temperature differences and has magnetic properties such as attracted to our planet. Their is a point where it is too far away from the planet surface which allows the drag of rotation to take over from pressure.
    A nuclear blast exerts massive heat which reacts to the nitrogen and leaving the flammable gases exposed until it exerts back.
    Evaporation would not exist without Nitrogen gas vibrating and carrying heavy water particles…

    42

    • #
      Joe Lalonde

      Centrifugal force due to our orbs rotation and the pressure of Nitrogen gas generates evaporation.

      31

    • #
      Robk

      Joe,
      Metals only feel colder if their temperature is below body temperature, the heat is conducted away. Try picking up a crowbar that’s in the sun on a 40degree C day and you’ll find it not so cool.
      Nitrogen does burn but at a high temperature eg.car exhaust, lightning, some solar radiation in the upper atmosphere cause oxides of nitrogen to form.
      Nitrogen atom is a good deal larger than hydrogen. Hydrogen can permeate many materials far better than nitrogen, it is also very much lighter eg. Kids party balloons rise. The halogen gasses eg. Helium, radon, xenon don’t “burn” but comprise only a small fraction of the atmosphere.

      40

      • #
        Robk

        Oops, that should read the “noble gasses” not halogen gases.
        The halogen gasses are very reactive eg. Chlorine.
        Appologies. Anyway Joe a good highschool chemistry book should set you straight on many of the things you mention.

        50

      • #
        toorightmate

        Not many crowbars are stolen.
        No 16lb hammers are ever stolen.

        40

    • #
      bobl

      Not really true, Hydrogen Reacts with Nitrogen (burns in Nitrogen) to produce ammonia, there are dozens of microbes that can do this trick.

      10

      • #
        Spetzer86

        Except burning or combustion typically requires oxygen. The nitrogen-hydrogen reaction is exothermic (gives off heat), but it’s not technically burning / combustion.

        10

        • #
          bobl

          Wrong, Burning is typically oxidation yes, but “burning” is actually just a description of an exothermic reaction

          10

  • #

    Perhaps retreaded!! Thank you Jo for the billboard!

    From: https://tallbloke.wordpress.com/2015/06/11/atmospheric-convection-what-does-it-mean/comment-page-7/#comment-113414

    Over two thousand comments to this one thread! Still with no hope of any scientific answer!!
    The comments of Will Janoschka are now banned at the Talkshop as my views are in conflict with the political goals of Roger Tatersall, who is now actively soliciting monetary contributions to support his political goals!!

    Wayne Jackson says: February 5, 2016 at 5:55 pm

    suricat: (Ray Dart) ( “I offer the same advice I gave to ‘Steve M’ on C4’s Eve forum. “Get your loft ladder out and consult your graduate notes”! The ‘origin’ of ‘pressure’ within a gas is generated by the ‘repulsive nature’ of the ‘surrounding electron shell’ possessed by your and local entities.”)

    Wayne: “Quite amazing, sounds like you think little of the well established kinetic theory of gases… in the decades I have studied chemistry and physics I have never come across such a far-out explanation for the origin of the pressure of any gas, from the random vectored momentum of the high velocity atom/molecules”

    Will J: Your kinetic theory of gases has never been established, nor demonstrated to have any validity! The current interpretation is grossly flawed as it considers gas kinetic energy to be only molecular mass velocity (random vector momentum) rather than the rate of change of that momentum as clearly expressed by both Kepler and Newton. In any gas the numeric density not mass density of molecules, sets the rate of change of momentum, as each molecule has the same (statistical) linear momentum, independent of its molecular mass, (3kT/2t)!!! So far the rate of change in angular momentum of atmospheric non atomic gas molecules defies any computational solution! Makes a 6-DOF atmospheric missile intercept solution quite trivial! Someday perhaps, we may squeeze the 10 well known linear and angular dimensions down into octonion form; for some partial understanding of this physical, by school children of all ages!

    Wayne:… “yes, but from electron cloud repulsion within any non-ionized neutral gas? The inter-molecular electric field repulsion/attraction interaction only becomes sizeable enough to even consider (showing up in less than the fourth digit of precision) when the molecules are only a few radii between any two atom/molecules (in a collision or close encounter)”

    Will J: A at surface temperature and pressure the nearest atmospheric neighbor molecule is within 100 Angstroms (1/10^8) meter distance as per surface pressure. Molecular electrons are excluded from the tiny molecular nucleus volume. According to that fantasy, the shell is highly repulsive of that near neighbor in tune with the complex conjugate of one (ev) energy!
    As Roger Clague clearly points out, at this scale, the charge repulsive force (potential) is eight orders of magnitude larger than Earth’s gravitational attractive force potential. Can you locate any error??

    Wayne: “Please, lets move quickly toward well established science and away from science fiction so we can finalize this discussion on the simplicity of vertical convection and it’s reliance on nothing but gravitational acceleration and the case where density differences exist with less dense fluids lying deeper within a gravitational well… convection is spontaneous.”

    So very quick to accept the 97% symbolic algebra BS from meteorological academics who only demonstrate they cannot find own gluteal muscles with one or both upper appendages. They only provide a continual Piriformis Syndrome for those attempting to think! The continual expansion of the atmosphere on the sunlit side is a spontaneous reaction to insolation; as is the atmospheric contraction nightside as EMR dispatches excess accumulated solar power to space! Gravitational acceleration has absolutely nothing to do with such spontaneous reactions.
    The spinning Earth provides rotational outward radial mechanical, centrifugal atmospheric mass advection at the equator and 60° latitude, that mass flow is compensated by continuum radial inward atmospheric mass flow at 30° and 90° latitudes! Atmospheric mass exits the surface at latitudes of low surface pressure and re-accumulate at latitudes of higher surface pressure. This is understandable using the continuum mechanics of compressible fluid dynamics. This is never even considered in the religious dogma of disgraced meteorology.
    All the best! -will-

    47

    • #
      Lewis P Buckingham

      This is almost as if someone wrote down all the things they had read about the behaviour of gasses on little bits of paper and threw them into the air.
      Carefully collecting them they wrote them down in the random order in which they fell, neglecting to see if there were any congruent sentences or ideas.
      Time to gently fold your tent and melt into the night.

      90

    • #
      RB

      I found it very hard to follow and not remotely tempted to give it more than a few laps of Mount Panorama of thought.

      If you are saying that there would be a lapse rate without convection, I agree but it would be extremely slow to form. Expansion and contraction of rising and falling gases is the explanation for how GPE turns into heat and vice-versa, creating the temperature gradient quickly eg, when an inversion layer disappears as the Sun rises. Its only a model of what a very large number of molecules colliding many times per second are actually doing but good enough for a basic description of the atmosphere.

      33

    • #

      tallbloke says: February 10, 2016 at 10:27 am

      “Will occasionally drops comments here. If one of them appears to add something of value to the discussion, I’ll let it through. I’ve had enough of the obfuscation and goading for now. It’ll leave room for people like Ben Wouters to put in their thoughts. If he ever comes back.”

      Fine TB, Money same place as mouth!! I stated that the Earth’s gravitational field is nearly isotropic and that this property is required for this atmospheric pressure. You claim to redefine the meaning of isotropic to suit your linear thinking, then in the same paragraph claim, that Earth’s gravitational anisotropy is less than 0.034% of that gravitational force in Newtons.
      Which is it? In which direction would all the Earth’s atmosphere go squirting off to space if the Earth’s gravitational field were not nearly isotropic? This same volumetric consideration is required for even trying to estimate the actual magnitude of Earth’s atmospheric mass!
      ————————————————————————–
      Leave this rest off if you must…. Why must you insist on trying to over simplify, ‘perhaps’ the most complex scientific situation ever presented to mankind, Earth’s dynamic atmosphere???.
      Can we not start by trying to list in detail:
      1). What is known of this atmosphere, along with proof of such knowledge.
      2). What is unknown of this atmosphere, along with conjecture as to the difficulty in acquiring such knowledge.
      3). What is presented of this atmosphere, as correct, by the discipline of meteorology!
      4). The killer!! Why dey do dat???
      —————————————————————————-
      BTW The fine balancing act between linear and angular momentum (Ray’s inertia) of the compressible fluid ‘atmosphere’ in conjunction with that of the incompressible fluid ‘ocean’, is of required consideration as such is all measurable. Not fair to discard such into ‘dark matter’, ‘dark energy’, or ‘black holes’, all [snip, no need to bring this in]!
      May I freely post under my universally accepted descriptive pseudonym [no] AZ?
      All the best! -will-

      02

  • #
    Ted O'Brien

    What caused the failure of the Bass Strait power line?

    30

    • #
      Yonniestone

      Something to do with an oyster farmer?

      30

      • #
        Rereke Whakaaro

        Did he (or she) form a band called “Electric Mollusc”?

        21

        • #
          Yonniestone

          Well I’ll be, Molluscs from the family Ctenoides ales are known by the names electric flame scallop, disco scallop, electric clam and disco clam. The clam has been given these nicknames because its soft tissues flash light like a disco ball. It is the only bivalve known to have light displays.

          Any relation to the Blue Oyster I wonder?

          30

    • #
      Uncle Fred

      That question can only answered through a failure analysis, which no doubt will occur when the fault location is truly established.
      In the mean time, just remember that failure of equipment occurs primarily at random, and that sometimes even the most comprehensive failure analysis does not satisfy the cause or causes precisely.

      40

      • #
        Ted O'Brien

        I was astonished 30 years ago to discover that modern coal trains seem to “fail to proceed” as often as farm machinery does. At what must be horrendous cost.

        00

  • #
    James Murphy

    Earlier this week, the ABC published this advertisement for the Tesla Powerwall.

    It made me think:
    Who can really afford to spend AU$12000 (as a minimum) on batteries which may, or may not last their guaranteed life, and may, or may not burst into (very very hard to extinguish) flames?
    How reasonable are the grid prices mentioned in the “case studies”?
    How reasonable is the 15.6kWh/day average figure for a 4kW solar panel system in Western Sydney?

    It also made me wonder at the complete disconnect between reality and the ABC/Choice when they say:
    - Use more electricity during the day to get better value for money – as if that is really an option for most people.
    - If uptake is successful, then “…only those on lower incomes or those unable to afford a Powerwall…” will be left paying for the grid – why is there never any mention of the people who cannot install solar as they live in buildings with small roof areas, or in apartments/blocks of flats..?

    It also greatly irritates me to see the not-so-subtle waving of the ‘easy to be off the grid completely’ flag. I would love to see people spend tens of thousands of their own dollars to fail to successfully go off-grid in suburbia, but I bet they would probably be bailed out somehow, instead of being left to deal with the consequences of their folly.

    170

    • #
      toorightmate

      “Reality” and “ABC” don’t live on the same page.

      50

    • #
      Andrew

      You would need 10 to cover a rainy winter week or so.

      So assume 1 person can go renewables only. (I probably could on the output of rooftop solar, assuming I’m at work not using aircon or anything except standby power, a bit of hot water and occasional clothes washer run, LED TV and charging my mobile appliances.)

      Now assume everyone does it. How much lithium needed? We mine just enough for phones, 787s and the occasional Tesla car. Where will 100 million Tesla batteries come from??

      60

      • #
        Robk

        As I understand it, the Powerwall has a maximum discharge rate of 2kW. A single unit off-grid will be a disappointment for all but the most frugal households. My farm is off grid due to it’s location. I have 80kWh of battery storage, a 3kW wind turbine and 3kW of solar. I have two self starting Gensets on standby that generally only run a couple of days a year. To reliably run the house and light-duty workshop we have a well built 10kw inverter. Our Aircon is evaporative so it is not a big load.

        40

    • #

      The presenter of the Catalyst programme admitted

      When I first started thinking about the grid, I assumed that all the power that got generated by, say, coal or gas got stored somewhere and then we just used it as we needed it.

      And that folks, is just a snowflake on the tip of the iceberg of ignorance and gullibility. One of the commenters at the Catalyst site kicked a few chunks of ice off the tip:

      John B – 04 Feb 2016 10:24:18am

      ‘Jemma Green
      I’ll show you where the problem is. Basically, 60% of Josh’s household electricity is at night-time. So even though the solar panels are generating 76% more power than he needs, he’s still very reliant on the grids and also getting quite a big bill as a result.”

      So great explanation. Solar supplies expensive power when it isn’t required!
      What happened to the gent in the promo on ‘The 7:30 Report’. I thought there was going to be some discussion of the fact there is a 25 year payback period for a technology warranteed for 10 years by the manufacturers? I don’t remember seeing this comment expanded with the facts in the program.

      So great program, just forgot to mention how many trees are going to die as people clear their yards of shade trees and squabble with neighbours over sunlight. No discussion of vermin chewing wires, lightning,the dangers of DC currents or having your house burnt to the ground by a fault. Just cheering based on the results of one sunny day. Forget using a welder or any useful loads, you will need a large back-up generator, another 10 Gs. No discussion of the quality of power, resistive versus capacitive loads and power factors.

      And why do I feel like buying a Panasonic battery bank after watching ‘Their my tax funded ABC’?

      And; people who already have solar and cashed in the RECS, can’t go completely off-grid without buying back the certificates. If there’s a grid; somebody has to pay for the “poles and wires”.

      It’s odd that the total costs of going off-grid aren’t mentioned when they are fully known already. Depending on how little you want to run the diesel generator for backup power; a 20kWh household is up for between $50,000 and $80,000; with recurring costs alone greater than those of simply drawing power from the grid at retail prices.

      Just as an idea of the scale of the Telsa powerwall rip-off; the effective stored capacity is 6.4 kWh. A good-sized car battery stores about 1 kWh, but is not suited to deep cycling. But you can buy deep cycle batteries at about double the cost; about $400/kWh. Of course you still need an inverter to hook up 8 such batteries for a Tesla-equivalent.

      BTW: Those who watched the programme probably saw testing of batteries with spikes being driven through them. Unfortunately; those tests aren’t good enough as Tesla cars are being fitted with titanium shields after one ran into a steel bar (perhaps concrete reinforcing bar from a building site) and burst into flames. Local file brigade had to put out the self-oxidising fire several times.

      Firefighters already have problems fighting fires in houses with PV solar; e.g. covering panels with black plastic film before trying to fight the fire itself. With an off-grid installation; the wiring can still be “live” even when it’s dark outside. It takes valuable time to find and to access the necessary isolation switches.

      P.S.: The “local area battery” concept is far from new. A facility was installed in Germany several years ago to provide a small village with (IIRC) 9 MWh of storage. Unfortunately, after years of construction and tens of millions poured into it, it self-immolated; producing a thick cloud of toxic fumes.

      151

      • #
        Geoff Sherrington

        Berndt,
        Strange things happen. We set up a camp in the Great Sandy Desetrt. The guys wanted a swimming pool for fire fighting backup. It was pumped by a diesel generator making electricity.
        Summer temps approach 50C. The fuel control on the genset leaked and caught fire. It was next to the above ground pool and the flames burned away the plastic liner. Goodbye to the innovative fire fighting plan.
        There is something illogical about an inflammable fire fighting system getting destroyed by fire before the fire could be put out.
        Geoff

        20

    • #
      Lucky

      James-
      Yes, ” 15.6kWh/day average figure for a 4kW solar panel system ” is reasonable.
      But wrt the battery installation, given the experience with these,
      I am curious what the local authorities would require in the way of fire and explosion proof containing structures.

      20

  • #
    Matty

    “Wonder why metal feels colder at the same temperature as other materials?”
    Isn’t it because it conducts the heat away from your body, when you touch it.
    A heat sink. Same as it feels colder when you get into water, though it can feel colder still when you get out again, because of end chill on your wet surface.

    80

    • #
      Matty

      This was in reply to #7.
      That was ‘windchill’ btw.. Don’t know how it came out in the ‘end’.

      40

    • #
      Joe Lalonde

      Matty,

      Nitrogen gas has a core temperature of over minus 400 degrees when it is at rest to become a solid. It is the most lightest element on our planet due to vibrating at the current temperature measured at in the element table. Glass and metals are porous to the attraction of Nitrogen.
      This is why Ice freezes from the surface down…and we get these fantastic designs of snow flakes in rotation as the water vapor is freezing.

      32

      • #
        Geoff Sherrington

        Joe L,
        Please consider remedial science courses. Some teachers seem to have whiteanted your grey matter.

        00

  • #
    handjive

    WEAKEST SOLAR CYCLE IN MORE THAN A CENTURY NOW HEADING TOWARDS NEXT SOLAR MINIMUM

    Overview
    The current solar cycle, #24, is the weakest solar cycle in more than a century and it is now heading towards the next solar minimum phase which would be the beginning of solar cycle #25.  

    Finally, if history is any guide, it is safe to say that weak solar activity for a prolonged period of time can have a cooling impact on global temperatures in the troposphere which is the bottom-most layer of Earth’s atmosphere – and where we all live.

    (vencoreweather.com)

    60

  • #
    Ruairi

    What warmists call pollution when they can,
    Is plant food,CO2,produced by man.

    A skeptic in the White House would be great,
    To end the scare and put the record straight.

    The warmist ‘science’ done with no debate,
    Has made them obsolete and more irate.

    Their ‘science’ done with nothing left to do,
    Leaves warmists out of work and idle too.

    110

  • #

    This is my shamelessly linking to a new Post of my own, at the following link

    Electrical Power Generation – Why Wind Power Fails To Deliver

    I’m still surprised by the number of people who believe that wind power can replace coal fired power. It’s understandable in a way I suppose, because the power is still being supplied, so the belief might be that they are basically the same as a supplier of electrical power, just done in a different manner.

    People don’t effectively understand the principles about power generation, of any method really, again, reasonably understandable, but it’s never even explained correctly in even the simplest of terms, so people can get at least a basic understanding. Even the sites that promote wind power explain it in terms that sound reasonable, but even then, in a manner which is obscure and deceptive, and in semi engineering terms where the truth may be there, but explained in manner that again is not readily understood.

    I know that most readers here at Joanne’s site have a better understanding than most, but if you ever need to explain it to others, again, that lack of real confidence with the engineering make it difficult to explain to other people.

    I hope that what I have in this Post might assist people in gaining a basic understanding of why wind power can never replace the reliability of coal fired power.

    Tony.

    180

    • #
      Robk

      Many people see the wind turbine blades turning and expect it is producing a good portion of it’s nameplate rating, not realizing that the power of wind is a cubic function of it’s velocity. It takes a good steady wind around 40 km or better to make useful power. Turning blades doesn’t necessarily mean useable power.

      100

    • #
      beowulf

      Tony
      Always look forward to your posts and love your regular demolition of wind and solar myths. Caught up with some of your other articles over at PA Pundits. Excellent material. You write for the lay-person, painting a clear, concise picture and that’s what we need, not ivory tower waffle. Wish your work was much more widely disseminated though. Also wish it could be downloaded directly into the brain cell(singular) of each greenie and pollie to get it past their inbuilt fact-filter.

      110

    • #
      Crowbar

      Tony, great article.
      I’m not clear on one point. You say wind power has a CF between 20% and 30%, and coal-fired power has a CF of 80%+. You then say that you need 2x up to 3x as many wind turbines to equal a similarly name-plated coal power station.

      Using minimum CFs, 20% vs 80% would need 4x
      Using maximum CFs, 30% vs 90% (say) would need 3x

      So should your article say 3-4x, instead of 2-3x?

      20

      • #

        Crowbar, thanks for the feedback.

        As I mainly do whenever I write about those things, I will (try to mainly) use the best case scenarios when referencing renewable power generation, because when it is explained so it can be understood, it makes them (renewables) look even more ridiculous.

        Again, it all relates back to perhaps one of the most misunderstood Terms used in power generation, Capacity Factor. (CF)

        So may figures for that are so loosely bandied about, and because people have no real understanding of what it actually refers to, renewables can get away with the figures they do quote, because lay people cannot translate that ….. to what it actually means.

        Now while coal fired power has a CF between 78% and 90% for the ones in constant use, people say that they also have down time, so they also cannot be referred to as ….. reliable. The point I try to make here is that the down time is mainly for maintenance purposes, so overall yearly run time (CF) is decreased from that theoretical 100%. However, coal fired power generates its maximum power while ever coal is being fed in. It doesn’t just stop and start up again of its own accord. While ever the unit is switched on, it delivers its maximum rated power.

        A couple of cases in point here. OCGT (Open Cycle Gas Turbine) Plants have a CF that varies between 16% and sometimes as high as even 30%, so people could point to that and make a case that wind or solar power is better than that. However, OCGT is virtually only used for Peaking Power applications, so the plants are only running for a few hours at most every day. That’s because they can fire up and deliver their power virtually at a moment’s notice, hence they are used only when required and called upon. But here, the same principle applies as it does for coal fired power. (feed in the coal, unit runs at maximum) With OCGT, feed in the natural Gas, and the unit delivers its maximum rated power, until the gas is turned off, when the power from the unit is no longer required. Again, not just stopping and starting of its own accord.

        I’ve also had some people refer me to coal fired plants with a CF as low as 50%, and using that as their reference. The plants they kinked to were all of them older than 50 years, most with two of their four units shut down forever, and the other two units only used a rolling reserve, only supplying power when needed, so still burning and turning, but not delivering power.

        See now how CF is so misunderstood. It (CF) needs to be explained correctly ….. in every case, coal fired power, Gas Fired power, wind power solar power, all of them.

        And hey, don’t mention Nuclear power. The WHOLE U.S. fleet of nukes operates at a yearly CF approaching 92% and regularly operates every Summer up around 95/96%, and that’s absolutely incredible for plants across a whole fleet, considering they all have an average age of 40 years plus.

        Each application needs to be carefully explained.

        Tony.

        90

    • #

      Tony, as you are well aware there is an enormous campaign by the Greens promoting renewable energy, but the topic is political and our beloved leaders are often quoted with outlandish statements such as 50% renewable by 2030 by Mr. Shorten the Labor leader, and Minister Hunt opening a new solar or wind facility to which the government has paid perhaps 50% of the capital cost through ARENA.

      Labor’s plan for 50% renewable represents about another 5,000 sq. km. of windfarm, which in itself is a fantasy, but there is never mentioned the amount convential generation that will required the other 80% of the time there is no wind, or the sun is not shining.

      If you look at the King Is. site, (KIREIP) you can see directly that the diesels are operating most of the time and it needs 40 kph wind before they shutdown, whereas the contribution of solar is insignificant.

      60

    • #
      bobl

      Tony,
      As an EE I keep needing to remind you of some things – pertaining to this article.

      1. The energy supply given to people is roughly 8 hours downtime per annum or 1452/1460 hours = 0.9945 or in round numbers 99.5% Availability, exclusive of acts of god. That 0.5% non-availability has to cover generation, transmission and distribution network failures. People need to understand that our electricity networks are seriously reliable technology.

      2. You always overdo the capacity factor, CF is annualised cow poo. In a 99.5% reliable energy system energy that isn’t 99.5% reliable is virtually useless. Not 1 Watt of coal energy can be replaced unless the energy to replace it comes somewhere near 99.5% available. With wind the effective reliable power generation capacity ( That is the maximum amount of energy that can be guaranteed to be available at all times) is pretty close to zero watts – therefore wind energy can never replace coal. Solar power has intermittent problems too, but at least the intermittency is partially predictable, the sun rises and sets at predictable times this means that it’s possible with solar to store energy to achieve a despatchable supply but the guaranteed output is only about 1/5th of the capacity factor or around 5% of nameplate. At times you may have more, but its not 99.5% reliable.
      You don’t handle this concept very well in your article and you leave the reader with the idea that 2500 windmills can meet the demands of the grid – but the combined output of that 2500 does not have 99.5% availability and even with storage cant account for the fact that a windmill can be stalled for a month at a time with a rogue high pressure system sitting in the wrong place for a month or so.

      Also missing is an explanation that these large machines must be kept turning, and even if they aren’t, stiction means that the initiation of rotation takes far more that the wind normally provides, this means that the things have to be powered up to speed to overcome stiction and support acceleration up to operating speed. In order that the shafts don’t warp some have to be kept rotating under power while there is no wind, in fact its possible for windmills to consume energy instead of generating it for considerable periods. This is also a problem in gas and coal plants too, the shafts must be kept rotating.

      70

      • #
        Lucky

        bobl- very good comment. Yes annual power delivered over nameplate power is one measure but of limited use. What really matters is power when customers want it, this is not so easy to define but however you do it wind power would rate very low.
        The proponents talk about cheap storage, which would solve the problem. Hence the fanfare about the latest battery designs. But real cheap storage has always been easier to talk about than to get. I reckon Tony is bending over backwards to be ‘fair’ to wind generation.
        The point about warping shafts- as I see it, those in gas and coal plants can be supported at both ends so do not need the cantilevers of wind generators which have to carry the very heavy fan blades at the end.

        40

      • #
        Roy Hogue

        Bob,

        About solar being at least “partially predictable” — true, you can predict no output at night but the daytime output is subject to clouds which are frequent and of variable density and also to dirt collected on the panels. So there’s a problem similar to the windmill. And actual output, even under the best of conditions may not be anywhere near the capacity of the installation because, at least around here, they install them flat on your roof facing any old direction without regard for where the sun will be.

        Around the corner from me is a solar installation facing almost due south and elevated according to the slope of the roof, which looks to the eye to be close to correct for good year round efficiency. But then there are two large trees in front of the house that shade those panels. And I mean big trees that will shade them through a large part of the day.

        It gets hard for me to call solar reliable or predictable in any way with the installations I see being done. I don’t know the details of what the guy with the trees was told about what he would get and I haven’t had the heart to stop and ask how his system performs or whether it lives up to expectations, lest I have to point out how the trees affect his results.

        Clearly people are getting something for their money. But I can’t see how anyone who knows anything about the subject would settle for what’s being done around my neighborhood. If I spend my money, no matter how much the project is subsidized, I want every last kWh I can get from my “free” source (which isn’t really free because I paid my share and then my taxes pay for the subsidy) and not from Edison. Solar electricity is being sold without regard for any good engineering practice except the need to make a sale to stay in business.

        It’s appalling. We’re being fed a lot of hype instead of soundly designed systems.

        30

        • #
          bobl

          Roy, I have designed remote area solar power systems and you can get close to grid reliability in the tropics/subtropics if you plan for 5 days of no generation due to bad weather. That is you plan for 5 hours out of 24 for generation and expenditure of only a fifth of a days generation to allow for 5 days of cloud. Also Solar for light cloud still produces abut 20% of nameplate which provides extra baseline capacity.

          That’s (nameplate x 5/24) / 5. = nameplate / 24 or around 4 odd percent of the output. Nowhere near the annualised capacity factor. That’s better that the windmills because its possible for windmills to be becalmed for very long periods and they can actually use energy when that happens, there isn’t really any reliable length of storage that will make wind power 99.5% reliable.

          20

          • #
            Roy Hogue

            Bob,

            I’ve no doubt you’re right re better than the windmills. But it seems like a lot of effort for so little payback when simply increasing conventional generation capacity could wipe out energy shortage problems instead of playing games with them. And we have a real energy shortage problem here in California. It’s man made in that the state simply blocks all new generation by conventional means, aided and abetted by various green and other protest groups. Then there’s Obama’s, what shall I call it, maybe vendetta, against coal.

            You didn’t give me details about how you orient the panels and so forth so I can’t judge as well as I might. But as I said, clearly those who put in solar panels do get something from them.

            Of course, if you read things I say here you’ll know I’m fanatical about getting the best for my time and money. Some day I may have to learn to relax a bit and simply accept the way things are going. ;-)

            00

            • #
              Graeme No.3

              Roy,
              I think there are books written about your questions. If I can have a go: no, shade trees are bad for output. Orientation is best if not fixed because of the change in the sun’s position during the day and year, but mobile panel mounts are far more expensive and rarely (I’m told) achieve enough improvement to be worth while. On the other hand some farmers have large 5-7MW units that can change angle in the horizontal & vertical planes and I know nothing of their performance but assume the farmers know what they’re doing. In the tropics people have to allow for the sun shining on the north or south side of the house depending on the season.
              Your location is important as the further you are away from the equator the less energy you can gather. With a fixed installation you can optimise output in summer or winter or settle for an in-between solution.
              May I suggest you look at euanmeans.com Energy Matters which features many articles on solar PV. Start May 2 2014 in archives and progress to last year in June where there is an article on solar in Aberdeen UK but it ranges widely and informatively (as do most posts). The last photo may give you a laugh.

              00

              • #
                Roy Hogue

                I’ll definitely take a look, Graeme.

                Locally all around the southwest there ar solar installations that do very well for their various users.

                Our freeways are lined with emergency call boxes connected by a radio network to a base station somewhere and all of them run off of a battery charged by a small solar array. The use is intermittent at best even without cell phones taking care of much of the load and they work out fine as far as I can tell. On the other hand, I don’t know if I would find one inoperable if I tried to use it. I’m wondering about how the maintenance is kept up in these days of a bad economy.

                In the deserts of California and Arizona the railroads use solar for running their signalling systems. This application is safety rated so it must meet some demanding criteria for reliability. They seem to have no trouble. However, again the actual power demands are fairly small. Modern electronics run with very little power and signals are all approach lighted, meaning they’re dark unless a train is close enough to need them. So again, small actual demand over time with all day available for charging the batteries. Our deserts have relatively few cloudy days compared with the coastal areas where people actually live and work.

                Around town I’m beginning to see small solar arrays running crosswalk signals that a pedestrian can push a button and start them blinking as a warning to drivers. But again, intermittent use with long charging times.

                Thee are probably others as well.

                I remain leery of using solar for higher load applications. But I’ll check your reference and maybe learn something.

                00

  • #
    handjive

    The Inept Inertia Trap

    Packed with mis-information, The Inertia Trap is a rich compendium of 97% scientific insights on the subject of the effect of [Global Warming] on the world’s oceans.

    Professor David Karoly, Uni of Melbourne:

    4.09: The warming of the climate system is catching up to the higher greenhouse gas concentrations that are in the atmosphere already, and we have ‘locked in’ further warming.

    The system is still catching up to the higher greenhouse gas concentrations, and we can expect about another 2 degrees warming, just due to the greenhouse gasses we have already put into the atmosphere.”

    > Whoa there, Prof. Karoly!
    Only minutes later, when we look at an ice-core, it is obvious that CO2 follows temperature!
    Not a climate system catching up to “higher greenhouse gasses” at all!

    Dr Tessa Vance, Antarctic Climate and Ecosystems Cooperative Research Centre:

    6.49: “This record comes from the ‘epicadome sea record’, which is the European ice-core group. It’s the longest ice-core we have to date in the world, and it goes back 800,000 years … what it shows you is the CO2 curve which is blue, and temperature curve, which is in red.”
    . . .
    The Inept Trap.

    91

  • #
    Rod Stuart

    Regardless of the source of electricity, the devices that transform it into light on occasion fail, and therefore the principles of preventive maintenance often direct replacement prior to failure.
    While it might take only 350 climate astrologers to change a light bulb, when the going gets tough the tough get going.
    It has been said that the Prairie grain belt is so flat that you can watch your dog run away from home………..for weeks.
    If you sometimes grow tired of your employment, and seek a change that involves challenge and risk, you might wish to consider a job changing light bulbs in Saskatchewan.

    30

    • #

      When I see this, why am I reminded of this wonderful song from 1968 by Glen Campbell.

      Wichita Lineman

      And in pretty much of a rarity in those days, he’s actually singing and playing here and not just miming along with the studio version of the song, virtually a requirement in those days for all TV variety shows.

      At the time, Glen was probably looked upon as another of those singers who holds a guitar to look like he’s playing along, and nothing could have been further from the truth.

      He was a member of that famed group of session musicians called The Wrecking Crew, playing mostly lead guitar, and bands across the World went to LA to use this group of the finest musicians for recording purposes. Brian Wilson hired him as a guitarist (to fill in for him) for The Beach Boys tour following the release of Good Vibrations, which Glen did the guitar work for. Then he started his solo career.

      In this clip you see him playing one of those beautiful Ovation Legend guitars, and for most of his career he was contracted to Ovation Guitars.

      Tony.

      80

      • #
        Dave in the states

        Sadly, Glen is suffering from Alzheimer’s these days.

        I never liked Ovations myself. If can’t be electric give me a pre-war Gibson.

        Glen is a very good guitarist electric or acoustic, though.

        40

      • #
        Glen Michel

        Jimmy Webb?

        00

      • #
        Glen Michel

        And a lovely proponent of the 12 string

        00

      • #
        Just-A-Guy

        TonyfronOz,

        A great documentary on The wrecking Crew. I guess I always knew there were studio musicians backing up well known artists I just never knew there was a core group of them until last year when I first saw this film.

        Another movie I would recomend is Love & Mercy about the life of Brian Wilson founder of the Beach Boys.

        There’s a third movie centering around The Wrecking Crew which I can’t seem to find right now. Can’t recall the name, but the story’s about how one of the members started out and then was ‘discovered’.
        Abe

        20

      • #
        gigdiary

        Thanks for posting that link of Glen Campbell playing ‘live’. Back then, it really was a rarity for musicians to play ‘live’ on TV. The Wrecking Crew is a great documentary. As well as the Monkees, the Beachboys, Sony and Cher etc, the band also played on sessions for Frank Sinatra. Mark Steyn has a wonderful story on his blog about Glen Campbell playing guitar for Sinatra’s ‘Strangers In The Night’.

        “Strangers In The Night” had a huge impact on the guy playing that “chinking rhythm guitar”, too. He was a fellow called Glen Campbell. At the time, he was a session guitarist with no particular interest in singing. “I’d never really paid that much attention to it, because I’m really a musician at heart. Singin’ was, like, secondary,” he said. “But when I heard the way he phrases, I said, ‘Wow, that’s really cool.’” Playing the melody along with Sinatra, he started to notice the way the singer pushed certain words and held back on others. He was so fascinated by the vocal technique he couldn’t take his eyes off Frank. At the end of the session, Sinatra said to Jimmy Bowen, “Who’s the faggot on guitar?”

        20

  • #
    Dave in the states

    Here’s an interesting commentary on the VW scandal I read while waiting in the barber shop yesterday:

    http://www.caranddriver.com/columns/the-vw-diesel-scandal-has-encroached-on-my-own-garage-column

    It’s pointed out that the rules and regs are really about driving diesels out of the consumer market because they are the go to alternative over hybrids and EVs. Further it is stated that in real world operation all autos will exceed the strict NOx limits of the canned test anyway, and what they did reduces overall co2 emitted.

    I have a question about the stated that only 40% of the electrons charging EVs are coming from coal. But I guess it depends on where your at; if there’s a nuclear or hydro generating station nearby on your local grid.

    20

    • #

      EPA and media regularly conflate different types of tailpipe emissions.

      Steve Milloy addressed the fanatic tailpipe sniffers in this article on Breitbart.

      MIT researchers are claiming that Volkswagen’s diesel emissions shenanigans have killed 60 unidentified Americans. They further claim that unless VW fixes the emissions problem by the end of 2016, another 130 unidentified people will bite the dust. This is all nonsense.

      The study is based on U.S. Environmental Protection Agency [EPA] claims that airborne particulate matter (e.g., soot from smokestacks and tailpipes) and ground-level ozone (i.e., smog) kill people. The EPA’s claims are entirely fr@udulent. EPA knows it. Congress knows it. Industry knows it. I know it because I’ve taken the time to investigate and even to litigate them.

      EPA’s epidemiology studies are highly controversial. All rely on exceedingly weak statistical correlations between dubious air monitoring data and death rates. …
      EPA’s animal toxicology studies are unhelpful to EPA, since no animal has ever died during them despite animals being exposed to PM at levels hundreds of times greater than humans would ever inhale. …
      EPA has conducted human clinical studies of PM for the express purpose of attempting to validate its epidemiology. … EPA has exposed these people to levels of PM up to 21 times greater than the maximum EPA allows in outdoor air and 75 times greater than measured in typical outdoor air. But no human test subject has ever died or even experienced a health effect traceable to PM.

      In the real world, underground miners and diesel equipment operators can be exposed to PM at levels a thousand times higher than in outdoor air on a career basis. … they actually have a greater life expectancy than the average person breathing blue-sky clean air.

      In Washington, D.C., life expectancy is about 76.5 years. But in Beijing, where PM levels are on average 10 times higher, life expectancy is three years greater.

      There are no ozone-related deaths either. The epidemiology is inadequate. No animals, including the human guinea pigs, have died. There is not a recorded case of ambient ozone killing anyone under any circumstances.

      As the claimed deaths from VW diesel emissions are entirely based on EPA’s bogus PM and ozone claims, the VW-related death claims are bogus as well. … they are all statistical deaths — i.e., deaths that only occur in the minds and studies of dishonest researchers.

      The UK’s Which? magazine has an article titled Car emissions: is nobody clean?.

      In light of the recent emissions scandal, we extracted and analysed detailed emissions data for over 300 cars that we’ve tested since 2012, in order to find out what cars are really emitting into our atmosphere.

      Despite all of the vehicles officially complying with recent EU emission regulations (either Euro 5 or the tougher Euro 6 depending on the age of car) our realistic testing found there is a chasm like gap between what is claimed and what is pumped into our air:

      • Staggeringly, nearly all (95%) the diesel cars emitted more oxides of nitrogen (NOx) during our tests than official limits allow. …;
      • One in 10 (10%) petrol cars also emitted more NOx than limits allow;
      • Two-thirds (65%) of petrol cars emit more Carbon Monoxide than the 2006 limit (Euro 4)…;
      • Despite being a hybrid, the Peugeot 508 RXH also creates more NOx than EU limits. Several petrol hybrids (the worst being the Lexus LS) also create more CO than limits would allow;
      38 of the cars we tested were even unable to meet the ‘Euro 1’ emissions standards from 1993.

      Keep in mind that their test cycle is not directly comparable to the emissions test cycle so there’s no automatic disqualification for failing to comply with the relevant standards. I’ve highlighted a significant observation: that compliance with new standards doesn’t guarantee compliance with old ones; where greater emissions were allowed under a different test cycle.

      More:

      We’ve found that of the cars we’ve tested, all of which are officially compliant with either Euro 5 or Euro 6, 85 exceed Euro 3 limits in our tests. This means these 85 cars do not pass the earliest emission regulations from this century.

      Yeah; they don’t comply with the previous standards. Step back and think about that.

      It is entirely possible that the practical emissions of vehicles haven’t been reduced substantially at all since the mid 1990′s; when Euro 3 was being drafted. The objective has been CO2-reduction. e.g. from the EU legislation for Euro 3:

      Statement by the European Parliament and the Council
      Re Article 5a (new)
      The European Parliament and the Council take note of the ongoing discussions between the Commission and the European Automobile Manufacturers Association (ACEA) regarding a voluntary undertaking by the industry to reduce the average CO2 emissions from passenger vehicles. … with the aim of reducing average passenger car fuel consumption to 120 g of CO2/km.

      And that isn’t working out either; which heavier vehicles necessitated by technologies to comply with new regulations; and lots of optional extras (not included in test cycle vehicles) offered effectively as standard; as only the “pov-pack” level of cars with minimal equipment, skinny tyres, etc. are tested for compliance.

      P.S. My 25-year old personal car met Euro 2 requirements when it was made.

      90

      • #
        Dave in the states

        So we see the irrational push to reduce mostly harmless (and beneficial) co2 while letting not so harmless co1 emissions and poisons slide. It’s just so crazy what the AGW hysteria has created. But most people don’t know the difference and don’t know even the most basic chemistry.

        This basic science is not even being taught in the schools. Science in elementary and secondary education is now almost entirely AGW theory. It’s so sad.

        70

  • #
  • #
    pat

    am going to watch this one.
    ***note the mentions of “environment” and “environmental protection”. haven’t been able to find out what that relates to as yet:

    5 Feb: Bloomberg: Chicago Stock Exchange Says It’s Being Sold to Chinese-Led Group
    by Matthew Monks & Annie Massa
    The deal values the Chicago Stock Exchange at less than $100 million, according to a person familiar with the matter, who asked to not be identified because the terms weren’t disclosed publicly. The exchange expects the deal to close in the second half of the year, though that will require regulatory approval…
    The 134-year-old bourse only handles about 0.5 percent of U.S. stock trading, but a deal gives a buyer a beachhead in the $22 trillion American equity market…
    Casin Group said it was attracted to the market because of the potential to “bring exciting Chinese growth companies to U.S. investors,” according to a quote in the statement from Shengju Lu, Casin’s founder and chairman.
    Founded in the 1990s through a privatization of state-owned assets, Casin Group initially focused on developing real estate projects in Chongqing before expanding into ***ENVIRONMENTAL and financial industries…
    The Chicago Stock Exchange — a subsidiary of CHX Holdings Inc. — is minority-owned by a group including E*Trade Financial Corp., Bank of America Corp., Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and JPMorgan Chase & Co., according to the company. The minority shareholders are also selling their stake, Kerin said…
    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-02-05/chicago-stock-exchange-says-it-s-selling-to-chinese-led-group

    Chongqing Casin Enterprise Group
    Casin Enterprise Group is a privately held holding company, based in Chongqing, China, with investments in real estate, ***ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION and financial firms…
    Casin Group has 821 employees with operations across China and abroad, including Beijing, Hong Kong, Sydney and other locations…
    http://www.marketswiki.com/wiki/Chongqing_Casin_Enterprise_Group

    10

  • #
    pat

    anyone care to evaluate?

    4 Feb: Bloomberg: Anna Hirtenstein: Morocco Connects First Unit of Giant Noor Solar Complex to Grid
    The first phase of North Africa’s largest solar-power complex was connected to the grid in Morocco, with a generating capacity of 160 megawatts…
    The plant cost 800 million euros ($894 million), according to the Moroccan Agency for Solar Energy, which is known as Masen. Saudi Arabia’s Acwa Power International and Spanish firms Sener SA and Acciona SA were the developers…
    Noor, meaning “light” in Arabic, is expected to have a combined capacity of 2 gigawatts by 2020 after all the units are complete. The complex will cost about $9 billion and will be spread over at least four locations in Morocco, a Masen spokesman said…
    The project is financed by a group of development banks, including the French Development Agency, the European Investment Bank and Germany’s KfW, which each contributed 100 million euros. The World Bank and the Clean Technology Fund both provided 150 million euros, and the African Development Bank another 168 million euros.
    The European Union and Germany’s environment ministry also funded the project with 30 million euros and 15 million euros, respectively…
    “The real test will be in the operation over the next five to 25 years,” said Jenny Chase, head of solar analysis at Bloomberg New Energy Finance, noting that solar thermal is more technologically risky than photovoltaic panels. “If it is not highly technically successful, more of the solar thermal pipeline in the Middle East and North Africa region is likely to be switched to PV.”…
    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-02-04/morocco-connects-first-unit-of-giant-noor-solar-complex-to-grid

    10

    • #
      Graeme No.3

      pat:

      by my imperfect calculations this is a sure-fired disaster. Guessing the daily output on the initial stage I got 390GWh annual output. This translates to $530 a MWh over a 6 year payback time, or $313 over a 10 year period.
      I used 300 days or 3600 hours sunshine annual and 1300MWh per day output. You might want to use more but I think that figure is not likely to be exceeded. Bear in mind that Adelaide is about the same as northern Morocco in distance from the equator.
      Over the 10 years the cost would be about the same as the guaranteed price granted to the latest North Sea wind by the UK government, and 10 times the cost of electricity ex Gippsland’s brown coal fired plants.

      Not my idea of a great investment opportunity if using your own money.

      20

  • #
    pat

    6 Feb: Financial Times: Michael Pooler: EU governments call on Brussels to tackle China over steel
    A group of governments including the UK and Germany have urged the EU to step up its fight against cheap steel from countries such as Russia and China, warning that the European industry is at “impending risk of collapse”.
    Ministers from seven steel-producing member states — Germany, Italy, the UK, France, Poland, Belgium and Luxembourg — have put their names to a letter urging Brussels to take greater action to tackle unfair trade practices and “ensure a global level playing field” for the steel sector…
    ***The letter also argued that in order to safeguard the competitiveness of sectors such as steel, the most efficient plants should not be subject to what it called undue carbon costs…READ ALL
    http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/a18fcd06-cc47-11e5-a8ef-ea66e967dd44.html

    ***”carbon costs” only makes it as the final paragraph.

    20

  • #
    pat

    read all:

    6 Feb: Toronto Sun: Lorrie Goldstein: Trudeau’s mission impossible
    Why Canada’s greenhouse gas emission targets are a farce
    When Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and the premiers meet next month to develop a national strategy for fighting climate change an all-powerful force will defeat them. It’s called math…
    Canada’s current pie-in-the-sky emission reduction targets, which Trudeau inherited from Stephen Harper, just as Harper inherited Jean Chretien’s pie-in-the-sky targets, call for Canada to reduce its emissions to 17% below 2005 levels by 2020 and 30% below 2005 levels by 2030.
    Trudeau, for all his criticism of Harper on climate change, hasn’t changed Harper’s targets, so they’re now Trudeau’s targets.
    Here’s what they would mean in the real world…
    Reducing our emissions by 127 Mt would mean the equivalent of shutting down all of Canada’s electricity sector (85 Mt) plus half of the building sector (43 Mt), in less than five years.
    Achieving the mid-level reduction of a 146 Mt reduction would mean shutting down the equivalent of Canada’s agriculture sector (75 Mt) and most of our emission-intensive and trade-exposed industries (76 Mt), in less than five years.
    Achieving the high-level reduction scenario of 168 Mt would mean shutting down the equivalent of Canada’s entire transportation sector (170 Mt), in less than five years.
    The idea any of this is going to happen is absurd…
    But the only way Canada could conceivably meet any of the emission targets our governments have set would be to buy billions and billions of dollars worth of carbon credits on global carbon markets, in which there has been widespread fraud…
    http://www.torontosun.com/2016/02/06/trudeaus-mission-impossible

    10

  • #
    macha

    Really worthwhile checking out. Earl happs blogg at reality.WordPress.com. Great read.

    20

    • #
      tom0mason

      macha, I believe you mean https://reality348.wordpress.com/, and yes it is very, very good.
      Earl Happ attempts to explain the basic underlying physics of how our weather and climate work by examining the dynamics of air pressures and airflows, jet stream movement, and ozone at different heights of atmosphere – IMO he is very successful.

      10

  • #
    pat

    the poor should not only leapfrog fossil fuels, go without cars & air-conditioning, not cut down their forests or kill their dangerous wild predators…they shouldn’t expand their agriculture either!

    15 Jan: Phys.org: Agricultural expansion in Africa could spark unforeseen climate change
    Rainfall and groundwater are crucial for crops in West Africa, yet agriculture may make droughts worse and lead to crop failure, according to a study co-authored by a UBC researcher…
    “We wanted to understand what happens to rainfall, runoff and groundwater levels when you transform a savannah into agricultural land, something that’s happening more frequently as West Africa tries to produce more food,” said Marc Parlange, a co-author of the study and a hydrology specialist and professor of civil engineering at the University of British Columbia in Vancouver, Canada…
    Landlocked Burkina Faso has limited water resources.
    ???When rain fails, crops die and food shortages follow. In the 1970s, a period of severe drought led to widespread famine that claimed many Burkinabe lives…
    More information: Theophile Mande et al. Suppressed convective rainfall by agricultural expansion in southeastern Burkina Faso, Water Resources Research (2015). DOI: 10.1002/2015WR017144

    ???a lose-lose situation?

    20

  • #
    pat

    6 Feb: Shanghai Daily: Chinese scientists find population outflow makes a city colder
    The mass movement of people out of Beijing for the Chinese New Year (CNY) causes the temperature to drop, research shows.
    During the CNY holiday, people leave big cities and return to their hometowns. According to the institute of atmospheric physics (IAP) under the Chinese Academy of Sciences, the mass migration could affect the urban climate.
    The man-made urban surfaces such as buildings and roads, and the heat generated by human activity lead to higher urban temperatures, a phenomenon known as “urban heat island (UHI)”.
    During CNY week, the UHI effects are lessened in large cities, and increase in tourist destinations. In Beijing, the temperature during this week declines by 0.64 degrees Celsius during the day and up to 0.83 degrees Celsius at night.
    “The change in temperature, though less than 1 degree Celsius, is comparable with the magnitude of global warming over the past century. ” said Zhang Jingyong, lead scientist of the research…
    “The population movement effects on urban climate is a new research topic, and the CNY holiday offers a unique opportunity to study it.” Zhang said…
    http://www.shanghaidaily.com/article/article_xinhua.aspx?id=319261

    20

    • #

      Okay, I’ll bite here, but be very careful about what you may or may not read into my response:

      During CNY week, the UHI effects are lessened in large cities, and increase in tourist destinations. In Beijing, the temperature during this week declines by 0.64 degrees Celsius during the day and up to 0.83 degrees Celsius at night.

      Let’s hope that the, umm, green blob doesn’t latch onto this.

      They ….. might ….. say that if the overall World population were to decrease, we could actually keep within that Paris decree wish of two degrees Celsius.

      Tony.

      30

      • #
        Watt

        The one child policy may have been a more significant contribution to the climate than building a new coal power station every week.

        20

      • #
        PeterS

        They ….. might ….. say that if the overall World population were to decrease, we could actually keep within that Paris decree wish of two degrees Celsius.

        I’m pretty sure they already have suggested something along those lines a long time ago. After all they did say the world’s population is much too high. The implication therefore is it needs to be culled. Of course they will never volunteer first will they?

        30

  • #
    pat

    6 Feb: Townsville Bulletin: Samantha Healy: Local BoM forecasters to stay
    THE Bureau of Meteorology has confirmed that Townsville’s three local weather forecasters will not be redeployed or made redundant when the office is fully automated in 2018.
    In an “updated” statement released to the Townsville Bulletin at 3pm today, the bureau said staff at its 24 regional offices would be offered redeployment options at its eight new activity hubs located within all capital cities and Cairns.
    “However weather forecasting staff at Townsville will remain unaffected by these changes,” the statement said…
    This afternoon Bureau of Meteorology Queensland acting regional director Bruce Gunn said only local observors and staff who maintained observational equipment in Townsville would be affected by the sweeping changes.
    “There are nine staff in Townsville and three of those are forecasters. This announcement affects the other six staff,” he said.
    He would not comment on whether the apparent backflip was the result of pressure from local leaders…
    Chris Nitsopoulos of Oz Cyclone Chasers said technological advances were no match for trained meteorologists and observers.
    “Automated systems can fail and then what?” he said. “We will be relying on someone 1300km away to interpret the data to tell us about local weather.”…
    ***Ironically, Townsville was swamped last night by a torrential downpour, with lightning and thunder lashing the city.
    ***COMMENT by Katydid: The forecasters can disappear as they are wrong 95% of the time, and as far as observers go, what is there to observe……..wrong forecasts. Burdell got 7mm last night so not exactly swamped!!!!!!!
    http://www.townsvillebulletin.com.au/news/mayor-throws-bom-at-bureau/news-story/4606232e92dbd1fb7faf97f56f69e082

    31

    • #
      Robber

      The BoM needs people to look out the windows to see what the weather is doing. Don’t you love their forecasts for tomorrow when they say there is a 50% chance of rain? Do they pass the magic coin toss from forecaster to forecaster?

      31

      • #
        JoKa

        I love it even better when the 50% chance of rain is for a projected rainfall of 0-1mm. One would have to be careful they hadn’t mist it!

        91

      • #
        Another Ian

        Well, after having been a doubter for the last about 4 years I might have to repent.

        Our “scattered showers” have translated into around 70 mm out of the rain gauge – the ultimate prediction test.

        So now I’m depending on scattered showers until – -

        61

    • #
      RobertBobbert GDQ

      Pat,
      “There are nine staff in Townsville and three of those are forecasters. This announcement affects the other six staff,” he said.

      1. Senior Window Washer.
      2. Senior Window Operator Opens Window.
      3. Senior OHS Staffer Puts head thru open window to check for OHS issues. Birds, planes, rising sea level, drowning potential, 10c warming, melting and moving Himalayan glaciers etc.

      Senior Forecaster is now clear to put head out safely. Refer to 4.
      4. Senior Staffer Holder/Grabber of Senior Forecaster ensures SF does not fall out of window.
      5. Senior Clerical staffer who records SF Observations.
      2IC Senior Forecaster now puts head out window to perform peer review.
      6. 2IC Holder/ Grabber performs OHS duty on 2!C Senior Forecaster to prevent fall.
      7. 2IC Senior Clerical staffer records Observations of 2IC peer review SF.
      8. 2IC Window Operator closes window.
      9. Senior and Infallible Adjustment Data Officer in Office actually collates data and once adjusted in pre approved ways sends it off to Media sources.

      The 3IC Senior Forecaster actually did fall out of the Window. Due to budget cuts the 3IC Senior Holder/Grabber had to be let go.

      This resulted in thundering editorials from The Drum and The Conversation and, surprisingly, they all logically agreed that Abbott was responsible for every budget cut ever, at any time, anywhere, and the sooner the UN launched an all out military assault upon the Rogue Nation of ‘No Justice Gulag Australia’ the better.
      In between posts comparing Adolph Abbott to Ted Bundy and cartoons of George Pell and Rock Spiders. And the posters all agreed on that too!

      111

  • #
    RB

    Well off topic. Yesterday morning, a cyclist was found with serious head injuries on the side of the road. Police are not sure if it was a hit and run. It happened along my favorite bike route and at a time that I would usually ride past the spot on either a Sat or Sunday morning, and I would have been riding then if not for a sudden change of mind to just go running.

    I brought this up as I was hit by a car nearby, about 5 years ago. A woman rear ended me causing me to veer across the road but luckily, not into traffic. The damage was only slight buckling of the rear wheel but I was surprised by the attitude of the woman. I had the distinct feeling that the sociopath meant to give me a tap.

    While the internet has been great for exposing crap science, it also is vector to spread nasty ideas. There are too many people out there who can be manipulated easily into being a bastard. Everybody needs to remember not only to take everything on the net with a pinch of salt but that there are very devious and malicious bastards out there.

    100

    • #
      Geoff Sherrington

      RB
      It is unfair of you to label bike riders as bastards. Sure they often run red lights, pay no rego, swear at motorists, take up too much road, ride outside marked lanes, have the dress sense of chameleons, often usechains – but that does not mean you should call them bastards now does it.
      Geoff

      01

      • #
        RB

        I haven’t done most of what you claim all cyclists do, and the few mistakes are much less than I made while driving (for good reasons) for which I payed good money. Are you suggesting children and pensioners (about the only ones who don’t pay for car registration) should contribute to road maintenance?

        I have to wear lycra nicks. I learnt that the hard way. The top is just bright red with no advertising. I take up one bike lane and for most of my 40km route, there is one. I also ride on weekends in the early morning, more for my protection than consideration for car traffic.

        00

  • #
    Graeme No.3

    Tree rings have been used as proxies for temperature despite reservations by many. The climatologists used trees in marginal areas, esp. cold, high latitude areas as they were expected to show bigger effects from global warming. Instead these showed an unexpected drop in growth in the last few decades, leading to “hide the decline”, “Mike’s trick” and various “hockey sticks”.

    Why should the trees be less vigorous? Water levels in the atmosphere have dropped slightly (against the claims of “settled scince” **) but the decline started before that minor drop, and in any case should have been offset by the increase in CO2 leading to less open time of the leaf stomata, hence less evaporation, and accelerated growth.

    In any case the decline should have acted as an early warning that there was something wrong with their hypothesis.

    H/T TinyCO2 at Bishop Hill. Climate Scince is a perfect description – it must not be queried because it is perfect, and because it can’t be queried it must be perfect. Scince because it not quite Science.

    71

  • #
    pat

    lol.

    7 Feb: SMH: Peter Hannam: Heat to stay on CSIRO climate cuts amid claims Malcolm Turnbull was ‘blindsided’
    Mr Turnbull and his staff “didn’t see it coming”, a senior CSIRO researcher has been told. The PM “blanched” when given a copy of the news of the cuts, and asked his staff to investigate, another source tells Fairfax Media…
    Scientists leading the call include David Karoly​ from Melbourne University, Roger Jones from Victoria University and Sarah Perkins-Kirkpatrick from the University of NSW.
    “Australia is a continent surrounded by rapidly changing weather patterns, connected to a rapidly changing global climate,” the scientists’ statement says…
    He (Greens Senator Richard Di Natale) said Mr Turnbull had inherited a government under Tony Abbott that had attacked climate science, and the PM “has an opportunity to set a different course”…
    http://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/heat-to-stay-on-csiro-climate-cuts-amid-claims-malcolm-turnbull-was-blindsided-20160207-gmnug5.html

    read all…includes some reality for a change:

    7 Feb: SMH: Can Canberra rely entirely on alternative energy?
    In fact, it’s hard to find a sensible answer to such a question…
    by Don Aitkin, a political scientist, historian and novelist, was vice-chancellor of the University of Canberra, the foundation chairman of the Australian Research Council and a member of the Australian Science and Technology Council
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/can-the-act-rely-entirely-on-alternative-energy-20160207-gmnsgr.html

    20

    • #
      ianl8888


      … Malcolm Turnbull was ‘blindsided’

      As was mooted in the earlier, relevant thread, Lord Waffle will save them – and the planet in the process

      He only needs the right photo op to feed his narcissism

      30

    • #
      Geoff Sherrington

      Can Canberra rely entirely on alternative energy?
      Evidence so far is it can survive with alternative lifestyle of the LBGPOQWERT type.
      Both are alternative in the sense that ordinary taxpayers elsewhere pay for them.

      00

  • #
    AndyG55

    Interesting application from SG. Americans particularly might like to have a look, but the intent is to extend to global.

    https://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2016/02/07/pulling-back-the-curtain-on-super-climate-sunday/

    20

  • #
    pat

    saw some of a shortened version of the following on CNBC last nite.
    talk of the 5 & a half trillion needed in additional expenditure each year to fulfil the Paris pledges – institutional investors, insurance cos will need to cough up the dough but that’s ok cos the public wants them to do it, says HSBC guy.
    Figueres talks of the 90 trillion needed to transition … but it’s a win, win, win, win.

    20 Jan: Youtube: 59mins: Davos 2016 (World EconomicForum) – A New Climate for Doing Business
    On the agenda:
    - Business implications of the political direction set by world leaders – Requirements to mobilize investment and reduce emissions.
    - Opportunities for public-private collaboration for action.
    Speakers:
    · Christiana Figueres, Executive Secretary, United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), Bonn.
    · Stuart T. Gulliver, Group Chief Executive, HSBC Holdings, United Kingdom
    · Doug McMillon, President and Chief Executive Officer, Wal-Mart, USA.
    · Feike Sijbesma, Chief Executive Officer and Chairman of the Managing Board, Royal DSM, Netherlands.
    Moderated by Steve Sedgwick, Presenter, CNBC, United Kingdom.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ebBum8b2gYg

    00

  • #
  • #
    pat

    can’t get past the questionnaire to read the text, but see second link:

    7 Feb: DailyRecordScotland: Craig McDonald: The £120million question: Did Britain’s biggest windfarm contaminate water?
    DR Rachel Connor claims the water has deteriorated since construction work started on the windfarm…
    Read more at http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/scottish-news/120million-question-britains-biggest-windfarm-7322029#2R3iZSJUbCCzrpwb.99
    http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/scottish-news/120million-question-britains-biggest-windfarm-7322029

    7 Feb: ScotlandAgainstSpin: Dr. Rachel Connor: Legal & Evidential Submission for Protect Our Water Group (Whitelee Wind Farm)
    A group from the Whitelee area; Protect Our Water has now submitted their formal objection and legal evidence to the DPEA regarding the Whitelee phase 3 application.
    Protect Our Water highlight the insufficiency of the EIA to consider the effects on water supplies, which have previously been highlighted by Dr Rachel Connor.
    The full document can be downloaded: POW-whitelee (pdf). (LINK)
    All the referenced documents can also be viewed at (LINK)
    http://scotlandagainstspin.org/2015/02/legal-evidential-submission-for-protect-our-water-group-whitelee-wind-farm/

    10

  • #
    pat

    still trying to protect the PM!

    8 Feb: SMH: Peter Hannam: CSIRO executives asked to justify deep cuts to climate science
    Senior CSIRO executives spent much of Sunday trying to justify and prioritise deep cuts planned to climate change science programs that are understood to have caught Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull by surprise.
    Senate estimates has also focused on the potential impacts to the Bureau of Meteorology. The bureau’s director, Rob Vertessy, said he was told of the axings just one day before they were made public.
    Lengthy conference calls are understood to have lasted late into Sunday evening between senior CSIRO managers, including the executive director of Environment, Energy and Resources, Alex Wonhas, and the director of the Oceans and Atmosphere, Kenneth Lee…
    News of Sunday’s discussions are the latest indication that the Prime Minister, and perhaps also Industry Minister Christopher Pyne – while aware that CSIRO were planning deep staff cuts – were surprised that climate science programs would be singled out.
    Manufacturing and data will also lose jobs.
    Fairfax Media sought comment from the Prime Minister’s office, Mr Pyne and the CSIRO. (AND? NOTHING FURTHER)
    Renewed pressure for the Turnbull government to intervene will most likely mount on Monday. Scientists, who are attending the start of the joint national gathering of the Australian Meteorological and Oceanic Society and the ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science in Melbourne, are expected to assemble at 1pm to protest against the cuts…READ ON
    http://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/csiro-executives-asked-to-justify-deep-cuts-to-climate-science-20160207-gmo13o.html

    10

  • #
    TdeF

    How many useless government bodies are there, wasting our cash? The Human Rights Commission springs to mind, in a legal system which is not based on rights. The Climate Commission at least is gone but the Climate Change authority continues on the same basis, telling the government to bring in a Carbon tax. We have Climate Change departments at Universities and Climate Change groups at council level and Climate Change researchers (350 of them in the CSIRO alone), now going. Then the Bureau of Meteorology and more. We have the SBS, an Al Grassby creation to bring Ethnic radio and TV to migrants in the 1970s, an absurd idea in the world of the internet and satellites. Then the ABC with its 1,000 Green journalists on public money to bring news to the masses when there is the same internet, satellites and endless commercial ventures. Then the Centres of Excellence, CRCs and that Industrial Research orginazation the CSIRO which does no industrial research of which anyone is aware. Who pay for those people who harass the public about light bulbs and balloons in chimneys and other Green schemes?

    Why stop at Climate? Imagine how much money the country would save by just firing all those people in government working for wages and doing absolutely nothing because the politically inspired organizations have no relevance in the modern world.

    121

  • #
    pat

    a MUST-READ:

    8 Feb: BusinessSpectator: Keith Orchison: Counting the cost of Queensland’s solar folly
    (Keith Orchison, director of consultancy Coolibah Pty Ltd and editor of OnPower, was chief executive of two national energy associations from 1980 to 2003)
    That odd noise you may be able to hear from north of the Tweed River is the sound of green chickens coming home to roost for the still newish state Labor government.
    The just-published draft report on electricity pricing from the Queensland Productivity Commission records that the solar bonus scheme invented by Anna Bligh’s government will impose a cost on state electricity customers from now to 2028 of more than $3 billion, even though the majority of households that snatched it up will have recovered their capital investment by mid-2020.
    The total lifetime cost of the scheme (launched in 2008) is calculated at $4.4bn.
    The Productivity Commission has mildly suggested that the government of Annastacia Palaszczuk “consider whether there is merit in an earlier end to the scheme than 2028”, which got an instant rejection from state Treasurer Curtis Pitt. Ten out of 10 for mature reflection, minister…
    The commission sees no good economic or environmental reasons for the Palaszczuk Government to intervene in the PV market to achieve a capacity uptake target of 3,000 MW by 2020 — and, it points out, pursuing a tariff level needed to deliver this goal “will facilitate a very large transfer of wealth from other consumers to owners of rooftop solar”.
    One of the things about the commission’s report that may have given Treasurer Pitt instant hiccups is that it raises the thought that the government can eliminate the cross-subsidy problem and directly lower retail power prices by moving the rest of the cost burden from consumers on to the state budget — an outlay of about $250 million a year for the next 12 years…
    http://www.businessspectator.com.au/article/2016/2/8/industries/counting-cost-queenslands-solar-folly

    where are the consumer groups which should have fought against the solar tariffs from the start?

    60

  • #
    pat

    7 Feb: AFR: Mark Ludlow: Queensland’s solar scheme blows out by $1b
    Queensland electricity users will continue to cross-subsidise households with rooftop solar systems to the tune of $3 billion over the next decade – $1 billion higher than previously thought – as a result of the Palaszczuk government refusing to scrap the former Bligh government’s generous solar bonus scheme.
    Despite a scathing report by the Queensland Productivity Commission last week, the Palaszczuk Labor government has refused to close down the scheme which will result in more than 200,000 households paying next to nothing for electricity until 2028.
    The decision to keep the solar bonus scheme – which offers 44¢ a kilowatt hour to those lucky enough to get into the scheme before access was restricted in 2012 – will ensure Queenslanders will pay higher electricity prices for the next decade to cover the costs of the scheme…
    Rooftop solar photovoltaic systems are scattered throughout Queensland’s suburbs, but most non-solar households are not aware they are paying for their neighbour’s electricity, said the Grattan Institute’s energy program director Tony Wood.
    The scheme adds $89 a year to an average Queensland residential electricity bill each year.
    “Most Queenslanders who don’t have solar PV don’t know what’s going on. It’s a really big issue but I don’t think people have really connected with it,” Mr Wood told The Australian Financial Review…READ ALL
    http://www.afr.com/news/politics/queenslands-solar-scheme-blows-out-by-1b-20160205-gmmge2

    30

    • #
      Graeme No.3

      Why Queensland? It is the same in all States; those with solar PV are being subsidised by those who can’t afford it, or can’t install it (e.g. renters, those shaded from sun). (Disclosure – I have solar).
      The result is higher bills for some and lower bills for smug greenies who claim that it was their moral duty to install solar ( It was one of these hypocrites who decided me to install as I couldn’t see why they should get all the benefit ). Of course more electricity generated outside of the control of the grid authority causes disruption and expense – which gets passed onto guess who?

      Incidentally, your solar electricity exported “to the grid” only goes as far as your local suburb. If lots of your neighbours have solar it is harder to export (and get the rebate) so that’s why you will see your generated voltage rise to 255V (after that the controller shuts down your system). That meant of course more expense for the controllers who had to upgrade the local transformers etc. ‘gold-plating’ for gold-diggers. Greenies like to celebrate “the end of the grid” because of a high level of solar adoption e.g. Perth, not realising that when the grid is shut down, the solar controller shuts down the output from the PV panels, so without the grid they won’t have any electricity. Check out what happens when there is a short blackout – the solar will be off for an hour or more after power returns to allow things to stabilise. So if you want continuous renewables go ‘off grid”. You might get your money back in 35 years.

      70

      • #
        Rollo

        Graeme I too installed solar when the feed in tariff was at its peak. I was lucky enough to find a sparky who installed the system without charging me the extra $1000-1500 that most installers were charging. The $9000 cost for the system came direct from taxpayers, myself included. I feel some guilt in taking up the system, but it has reduced my power bills considerably. I wonder how much it will cost to dispose of the system when it fails?

        40

      • #

        What the!

        Graeme, No.3, thanks for this. It’s something I didn’t know. (my bolding here)

        Incidentally, your solar electricity exported “to the grid” only goes as far as your local suburb. If lots of your neighbours have solar it is harder to export (and get the rebate) so that’s why you will see your generated voltage rise to 255V (after that the controller shuts down your system). That meant of course more expense for the controllers who had to upgrade the local transformers etc. ‘gold-plating’ for gold-diggers. Greenies like to celebrate “the end of the grid” because of a high level of solar adoption e.g. Perth, not realising that when the grid is shut down, the solar controller shuts down the output from the PV panels, so without the grid they won’t have any electricity. Check out what happens when there is a short blackout – the solar will be off for an hour or more after power returns to allow things to stabilise.

        That is really interesting to know. I believe you, but might you have a reference showing that to be the case, and I somehow doubt there will be, because that is a seriously damaging thing for rooftop solar, if that’s the case.

        One lousy suburb.

        So, extrapolating out from that then, it means that rooftop solar is ….. NOT causing any power plants of any type to be, umm, easing back on the power they deliver.

        Thanks for mentioning this.

        It seems that the more I learn, the less I know!

        Tony.

        70

  • #
    Annie

    Hi Jo. Presumably the thread is Untreaded because you hope we’ll wander into unexplored territory. I wonder as I wander but most of my musings probably wouldn’t be very interesting to many. :)

    30

    • #
      Analitik

      It may have been a nod to the Bathurst 12 hour Production race that took place this weekend. The cars run slick tyres – untreaded.

      I hope to see a Tesla entered soon. It would be quite entertaining to see it romp off in Ludicrous mode and then have to pit for a recharge every few laps

      80

    • #
      mc

      Presumably the thread is Untreaded because you hope we’ll wander into unexplored territory.

      I had the same thought Annie, and by the way, you might as well continue with your musings while you still can; who knows how long we will retain the freedom to do so?

      30

      • #
        Annie

        My wanderings tonight included starting to read ‘The Fountainhead’ by Ayn Rand. It might induce me to take more interest in architecture! I read ‘Atlas Shrugged’ last year so it seems like a good idea to read its predecessor.

        We’ve started to watch ‘MASH’ again in the wake of hearing of ‘Trapper’ departing this life. We have the entire set so that will last for weeks, or months.

        Outside, tonight, we have one of those wonderful very clear evenings with a quite strong wind. It was warm by day and it is mildish now. The night sky is amazing in these conditions; one of my favourite things about living here in country Victoria.

        So there you have my wanderings for tonight! For what they are worth.

        Why, with so much beauty and lovely people around is there so much misery and nastinesss at the same time?

        40

        • #

          Annie,

          you’re going to like that book.

          I read them the other way around, The Fountainhead first. When I finished that one, I promised myself to read Atlas Shrugged, but I didn’t find a copy for 25 years, and that ended up being in an obscure second hand book shop I didn’t even know was there, it was so small, and there it was on the shelf.

          Thank heavens.

          I ordered a copy of the book for our Son as a Christmas present. He’s ready for it now. It took six weeks to arrive, and three weeks later, Angus and Robertson closed that Rockhampton book store.

          Tony.

          20

        • #

          Oh, and Annie,

          some trivia about MASH.

          I just loved the original movie, especially the theme song for it. The TV Series just uses the music, and that was written by the famed arranger Johnny Mandel.

          However, the lyrics to that song have a really interesting story attached to them. The Director for the movie was Robert Altman, and when he decided to use the song for the movie, his son heard it and put words to it. Altman was so impressed he had the song recorded, using four session singers and a band backing them up. Thus was born the theme for the movie, the only version of that song with the lyrics being sung.

          Now, here’s the really interesting thing about Altman’s son Mike Altman. He was only 14 at the time he wrote these lyrics. The version sung for the movie was done in the studio using four singers who never even got a credit anywhere, either in the movie or later, just paid for their session work for that song. They were John Bahler, Tom Bahler, Ron Hicklin and Ian Freebairn-Smith.

          There is an ironic thing about this song.

          Robert Altman, a quite renowned movie Director, who directed the movie MASH was paid $70,000 for directing the movie. He said in a later interview that this was around par for directing a movie in the late 60’s, early 70’s. He also said that while he was paid that quite large sum at the time, his 14 year old son, Mike, who wrote the lyrics for this one song, received more than $1 Million over the years for royalties for the song.

          MASH theme from the Movie intro

          Tony.

          40

          • #
            Annie

            Thanks Tony. That’s very interesting. I never did see the original movie (even at a young age I found the volume of sound in a cinema far too much for comfort).

            00

  • #
    el gordo

    ‘Adapting to climate change remains a wickedly difficult collective action problem, and there is no guarantee that growing concerns about climate change will translate into increased pressure on politicians to act.

    ‘In the short term, though, more frequent and severe extreme weather does not appear to be something that will push Americans to call for action on climate change. That means climate activists will need to pursue alternative strategies to motivate voters to push governments to act on this critical problem.’

    The Conversation

    51

    • #
      Annie

      I’m totally sick of being ruled by a few activists. People like that just make me determined to dig my heels in harder.

      40

  • #
    Another Ian

    Maybe a couple of adaptations we should note

    http://www.breitbart.com/london/2016/02/07/sunday-times-thatcher-stayed-eu-no-wouldnt/

    and particularly

    [SNIP 18C sorry]

    00

  • #
    TLMango

    There is new unpublished research at
    weathercycles.wordpress.com
    ‘Earth’s climate connected to Jupiter/Saturn …’

    00

  • #
    John

    Seem pretty hot in Perth right now.

    :) :) :) :) :) :)

    10