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Global warming saves lives in Stockholm — but bad assumptions feed scary headlines

Here’s a tale of how to generate headlines from circular reasoning built on brave assumptions. All it requires are some unskeptical science journal editors and gullible journalists. Et Voila!

Congratulations to Chip Knappenberger, Pat Michaels, and Anthony Watts, whose response to Åström et al was published Wednesday.

In October 2013 Åström et al claimed that global warming had killed lots of people in Stockholm, hundreds. But the first thing you need to know is that they don’t appear to start with actual mortality data in the early 1900′s. Surprised? Me too. Anthony Watts found it hard to believe . The other thing worth knowing is that extreme heat was defined as the top 2% of hot days, and in Stockholm that mean everything above a terrifying 2-day-moving-average mean temperature of 19.6C (67 F).

From the methods:

We collected daily mortality during the period 1980-2009 and daily temperature data for the period 1900-2009 for Stockholm County, Sweden.

Åström 2013:  Figure 2 j Temperature distribution of 2-day moving average of mean temperatures during summer months. Grey distribution, 1900–1929; black distribution, 1980–2009.

It appears the authors compared calculated death rates (using a model) from 1900-1929 with rates from 1980-2009 and concluded that mortality from heat was twice as high as it would have been which appears to be a product of their assumptions. They also find there was “no evidence”  that humans adapted to extreme temperatures. It’s a notion that seems self-evidently silly. We don’t need statistical tests to figure out if humans adapt to heat and cold, we see hot people turn on air-conditioners  — and any statistical test is confounded by improvements that are difficult to quantify, like medical knowledge, diet, exercise and changes in population diversity. Our species thrived through 4 million years of rolling ice-ages, and spread out to inhabit nearly every weather-zone from the Arctic to the Sahara. Why would homo sapiens find 0.7 of a degree warming to be difficult to adapt too? How many Swedes die of heatstroke when they holiday on the Mediterranean? Assume the paper is correct and Scandinavians couldn’t adapt to heat — wouldn’t there be shorter lifespans among those who emigrated to Australia, California and Florida?

Here’s a brave assumption:

“…we assumed constant exposure–response relationships.”

Perhaps I’m missing something. If we assume that exposure to a certain temperature causes a certain death rate (is that what they are saying?), I would have thought it follows automatically that adaption is not possible. If people adapted to hotter days the exposure–response rate would not stay the same?

Cold is deadly

Past studies established that winter kills more people than summer, even in hot countries like Australia. Cold times in China mean more death, war, rebellion and general other bad stuff that we don’t want (Lee 2010 and Zhang 2010). Evidence suggests that global warming is good for our health as I said in 2011:

The statistics on cardiovascular disease make it clear that cold weather is deadly. In Russia, ischemic stroke is 32% more likely on colder days; in Norway, cardiovascular deaths are 15% higher in winter months; in Israel, cardiovascular deaths were 50% higher in winter, even though Israeli winters are not exactly cold. Likewise in California heart disease mortality in 220,000 deaths was 33% higher in winter. A study in Brazil found that deaths were 2.6% more likely for every degree the temperature fell below 20°C. Need I go on?

Plus there is the other assumption in Åström et al, that the cause of the warming was human emissions of CO2, which for lots of reasons we know is a spurious exaggeration. There are plenty of factors that could make Stockholm warmer that have nothing to do with coal fired power plants. For starters, it is one of Europe’s fastest growing cities. The North Atlantic Oscillation had different effects in the latter 30 years than the earlier period.

Congratulations to Chip Knappenberger, Pat Michaels, and Anthony Watts, who show that warmer temperatures  led to a reduction in the rate of heat-related mortality in Stockholm which is pretty much what we would expect, and consistent with most other literature.

Anthony Watts notes that Nature Climate Change took months to publish their comment, used a long review process, and only published with a reply from Åström running along-side.  All of which is fine, if only they applied the same rules to both sides of the equation, they might not publish so many weak studies in the first place.

This study was all so circular.

We quantified the number of deaths that could be attributed to climate change
through a change in the frequency of extreme heat and cold events. If the numbers
of extreme events were roughly the same during the reference period as during
1980-2009, it would not have been possible to attribute any change in the extremes
or their associated mortality to climate change.

This is the third time in a week I’ve hit a paper with the marvel factor — I marvel that anyone thought it should be done in the first place, let alone submitted. And what were the editors thinking?

(I guess this is not a serious science journal, only Nature, right?)

Did a single person die in 1917 because the daily 2-day running average temperature hit 20C in Stockholm? Or were deaths on those days occurring because their health was so precarious they would likely have died anyway in the next few weeks or months?

Dare I suggest that people have to die sometime, sooner or later. Even if they lived under continuous ideal temperature conditions we would still see deaths on days of ideal weather. It’s true there are curves, and more people  die at the hotter and colder extremes, but there is no perfect temperature, and deaths at the warm end are often people who were likely to die. Mortality rates rise during heatwaves but its a well known phenomenon that they often fall below the expected afterwards. After mild heatwaves, the deficit mortality as it is known, “was close to 1.0″ meaning most of those particular deaths were likely to have occurred soon anyway.  (See Saha et al.) This does not seem to be the case for severe heatwaves like the one in France in 2003. (Though here, confoundingly, the mortality deficit was inexplicably higher than expected, but did not fit the spacial distribution pattern. The authors could only speculate as to why thousands less people died over the following year than were expected too). But in Stockholm, remember, we are not talking about extreme heatwaves so much, but 2 day pairs of mean temperatures above 19.6C degrees (about 70 deg F).

These results are completely contrary to others, like Keatinge in BMJ which looked at mortality rates and temperatures across Europe and concluded thatPopulations in Europe have adjusted successfully to mean summer temperatures ranging from 13.5°C to 24.1°C, and can be expected to adjust to global warming predicted for the next half century with little sustained increase in heat related mortality.” (H/t to Ferdinand Engelbeen)

Read this one carefully:

All temperature-related mortality is potentially preventable, making mortality during extreme temperature events a public  health concern.

What exactly is a “temperature related death? ” There is not a single definitive temperature death curve for homo sapiens. What is a “heat extreme” and “cold extreme” changes with latitude. Feeling a bit wicked, can I suggest that if all  temperature related mortality is potentially preventable” what we really need are days with no temperature, so no one ever dies. (Ban thermometers: cut the celcius, and kill the kelvin.)

But dutiful gullible science journalists soaked in the statistics and generated these headlines:

Extreme Heat from Climate Change Linked to the Early Death of 1,500 Swedes, Researchers Say [Nature World News]

Climate Change Is Killing People In Stockholm, Sweden: Rising Temperatures Blamed For Up To 300 Premature Deaths [International Science Times]

Heat waves take a toll in Stockholm [Science Nordic]

Stockholm heat toll ‘doubled in 30 years’

Swedish researchers think the changing climate was responsible for doubling the number of heat-related deaths in the capital, Stockholm, in the 30 years from 1980. [climate news network]

Astrom protested in his reply to Knappenberger et al,  that “our purpose was not to determine what caused the climatic changes.” Which is all very well, but since journalists headlined this as “climate change” causing the deaths, and climate change is known to be used and abused as a code word for man-made global warming, we would expect honest scientists to go out of their way to protest the frequent and unjustified link with CO2 and deaths that were made in the newspaper headlines and articles. Unless of course, that was really the aim….

Here is some of the reasoning about the adaption issue.

We did not adjust for actual adaptation responses because the low public awareness of the health hazards
of high ambient temperature suggests that there would have been limited autonomous adaptation, and because data were not available to adjust for any actual adaptation responses.

Knappenberger et al calculate the lives saved:

To estimate the impact of this adaptation, we substitute the relative risk in the base period 1900–1929 for the relative risk in the 1980–2009 period, leaving the other parameters (number of extreme-heat events and seasonal baseline mortality) unchanged from the 1980–2009 values. This substitution indicates that in the absence
of adaptation, 2,993 heat-related deaths would have occurred under the observed climate and population characteristics of the period 1980–2009. The difference between the unadapted (2,993) and the actual (689) heat-related mortality is 2,304. That number of averted deaths, presumably a result of more effective adaptation, is eight times the number identified to have occurred as a result of global climate change (288), itself a likely overestimate.

So 2,300 averted deaths because people may have adapted to a temperature shift.

——————–

REFERENCES:

Davis, R. E., Knappenberger, P. C., Michaels, P. J. & Novicoff, W. M. Environ. Health Perspect. 111, 1712–1718 (2003).

Lee, H.F. and Zhang, D.D. 2010. Changes in climate and secular population cycles in China, 1000 CE to 1911. Climate Research 42: 235-246.

Keatinge W.R. (2000) Heat related mortality in warm and cold regions of Europe: observational study BMJ 2000;321:670,BMJ 2000; 321 doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/bmj.321.7262.670 [abstract]

Knappenberger, P., Michaels, P., and A. Watts (2014). Adaptation to extreme heat in Stockholm County, Sweden. Nature Climate Change, 4, 302-303. [abstract] [PDF]

Oudin Åström, D., Forsberg, B., Ebi, K. L. & Rocklöv, J. (2013). Attributing mortality from extreme temperatures to climate change in Stockholm, Sweden. Nature Climate Change, 3, 1050–1054. [PDF]

Saha, M.V., Davies, R.E. and Hondula, D.M. (2013) Mortality Displacement as a Function of Heat Event Strength in 7 US Cities,   Am. J. Epidemiol. (2013) doi: 10.1093/aje/kwt264   [abstract]

Zhang, Z., Tian, H., Cazelles, B., Kausrud, K.L., Brauning, A. Guo, F. and Stenseth, N.C. 2010. Periodic climate cooling enhanced natural disasters and wars in China during AD 10-1900. Proceedings of the Royal Society B 277: 10.1098/rspb.2010.0890.

 Other health and mortality related posts:

 

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Global warming saves lives in Stockholm -- but bad assumptions feed scary headlines, 9.3 out of 10 based on 62 ratings

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135 comments to Global warming saves lives in Stockholm — but bad assumptions feed scary headlines

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    • #
      ROM

      Tom @ # 1

      One of my daughters has been a nurse in Darwin for some 14 or 15 years.
      A new nurse from Tasmania arrived and a few days later when the Darwinians were rugged up in their winter type woolies or what passes for winter woolies in Darwin, the new Tasmanian nurse arrived at work complaining bitterly about the heat and the fact she had to have the A/C on as the heat was almost too much for her.
      It was 23 C .

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      • #
        Robert JM

        A B&B manager in subiaco told us he had three couples from different regions staying at one point.
        The Couple from Ireland slept in sheets with the air con on.
        The Couple form singapore slept under a doona with the heater on.
        The Couple from melbourne were pretty comfortable!

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        • #
          bananabender

          I once worked a for a Singapore based company. A couple of staff came from Singapore to Brisbane. They were complaining non stop about the “cold” despite temperatures being almost 30C!

          10

      • #
        Peter Carabot

        I presume that the winter attire in Darwin is the same as for FNQ, flanellette shirt, below-the-knee shorts and fur lined thongs….it is for me at 22deg.!

        00

    • #
      bananabender

      I consider 19.6C to be freezing.

      30

  • #
    pat

    1 May: Grist: The Vampire, the Preacher’s Daughter, and Me: Behind the Scenes of the Years of Living Dangerously
    By Mary Anne Hitt
    This coming Sunday, May 4, Showtime will air the fourth episode in its Years of Living Dangerously climate series, which includes me and features the Beyond Coal Campaign…
    Being included in the Years of Living Dangerously series has been an honor and a wonderful experience.
    ???Having some of the best storytellers on the planet turn their lenses on climate change has resulted in great television that’s already proving to be a game changer…
    Mary Anne Hitt, Beyond Coal Director
    http://grist.org/article/the-vampire-the-preachers-daughter-and-me-behind-the-scenes-of-the-years-of-living-dangerously/

    yesterday i posted an article which suggested the 4th episode this sunday was the final episode & wondered how come as it was said that there would be 8-10 episodes. i think the author might have noticed it wasn’t scheduled for sundays after this week’s episode. however, from Showtime scheduling, it says:

    - It will continue to air at 10PM ET/PT on Sundays for the first four weeks before moving to Monday nights at 8PM ET/PT starting Monday, May 12 for the rest of the season. -

    so the series has not been cancelled….yet.

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    • #
      Graeme No.3

      Pat:
      did you see this? I would have thought that anyone “risk adverse” would have fled screaming from it.

      In a newly capital constrained and far more risk adverse world, support is growing among some of the world’s largest institutional investors to build new sources of capital to finance the green infrastructure needed for an effective climate economy.

      One part of the solution is provided through the World Bank, which issued its first “green bond” in 2008. The product was designed in partnership with Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken (SEB) …Since 2008, the World Bank has raised the equivalent of US$5.6 billion via more than 60 green bond transactions in 17 currencies around the world. And the list now includes Australian investors and super funds after the World Bank issued its first million “kangaroo green bond” two weeks ago (that is, bonds denominated in Aussie dollars but issued by offshore borrowers … with the funds raised being earmarked to deal with climate change projects).

      UniSuper, with more than $40 billion under management, chose to be the “cornerstone investor” on this transaction, playing a leading role in bringing the deal to Australia, and then taking up a A$100 million stake in the A$300 million deal. “By providing the lead order and working together with the World Bank, UniSuper has helped introduce green bonds to Australian institutional investors,”

      The balance of the bonds were placed with 15 Australian investors, including Aberdeen Asset Management, AMP Capital, Australian Ethical Investment, Colonial First State Global Asset Management, Local Government Super, QBE Insurance Group.

      http://finsia.com/news/news-article/2014/04/29/the-green-wall-of-money

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  • #
    Robber

    We are all doomed, every one of us, and it’s all due to the changing weather, or climate, or extreme weather! But we should all stop whatever we are doing, and save ourselves by stopping this terrible emitting of CO2. ROFL

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  • #

    How did 19.6°C for two days kill anyone? Did they get lured outside and step under a bus?

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      the Griss

      “How did 19.6°C for two days kill anyone?”

      I’m guessing they didn’t realise that they had to remove one of their 3 layers of clothing !!

      110

    • #
      Skiphil

      re: 20C/68F as a heat wave

      This is truly contemptible work. Where I am sitting right now it is exactly that temp. (eastern Pennsylvania), and it is utterly pleasant, although a tad on the cool side for me.

      I am sitting outside wearing a light fleece jacket to keep warm in the slightly cooling breeze. The idea that this temp. poses some health or survival risk to humans is absurd, unless we are talking hypothermia if people get wet and have trouble staying warm at this temp.

      50

    • #
      Robert JM

      The “warm” weather they were having convinced them not to go to thailand and subsequently they got drunk, passed out and died of hypothermia!

      20

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    john karajas

    I was lucky enough to experience an extended hot spell in Stockholm during 1999 when there were a number of days where the temperature rose above 30 degrees Celsius. IT WAS GLORIOUS! The town’s population was evidently enjoying it eating, drinking and sunning themselves out on the pavement cafes, in the Gamla Stan (the Old Town) and by the harbour’s edge. They were able to enjoy Mediterranean weather without having to fork out good money for air fares (not that package deals whereby your average Swede flies to the Med or Western Africa for two weeks of sustained frying are that expensive). I seriously doubt whether there was much extra mortality during this spell of atypical hotter weather. What is beyond doubt, to my recollection, is that the average Stockholmer seemed to really delight in this extra sunshine. It was certainly a lot better than the Stockholm winter.

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      the Griss

      “evidently enjoying it eating, drinking and sunning themselves out on the pavement cafes”

      INDULGENCE is a KILLER !!! :-)

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      • #
        Manfred

        Indeed……not unless it is administered by the catholic church…..in which case it becomes delayed gratification.

        Presumably Griss, you refer to the hedonistic, resource consuming, carbon dioxide jackboot stamping venal indulgence that on the one hand gratifies the senses and on the other, ratchets up Green guilt to the point of rendering life and progress impossible, through severe, pathologically immobilising cognitive dissonance?

        As you suggest, pleasure and contentment win every time. Life is too short for it to be otherwise.

        Misplaced, manufactured Green guilt IS the ultimate inverted snobbery of indulgence, the Green-washed sepulchre of stinking hypocrisy.

        I think we should give each other a red thumb for this!

        101

    • #
      Senex Bibax

      I lived in Stockholm in the 1990s and I still remember 1992. On April 30 it was glorious, 28 degrees, and I got sunburnt during a bike ride. Unfortunately, that proved to be the warmest day of the year. All that summer the temperature struggled to reach 20 degrees.

      80

    • #
      Andrew

      if Roxette doesn’t lead me astray they seem quite unafraid. Maybe a rewrite to modern thinking is in order.

      10

  • #
    ROM

    It’s called adaptability.
    It is the mark of mankind who is one of the very few species on this planet that can and has adapted to nearly every environment that exists on this earth. The few other species, rats, cats, dogs and etc all depend on mankind to be able to survive in all these extreme environments.

    Dallol is the climate we are heading to if you believe the most crazy and stupid of rabid warmists
    Oymyokan is apparently the climate they are demanding we have to achieve so as to” save the planet.”

    And nowhere as in “nowhere” during all the two decades of the Great Global Warming scam have I ever seen or come across any indication at all as to just what would be the perfect global temperature the most rabid of the climate warming alarmists actually want to try and achieve as their ideal global temperature.
    No numbers, nothing!

    This fact, the total lack of a proposed and aimed for and never ever enumerated ideal global temperature really points up the utter bankruptcy of their whole case as being nothing more than a grossly emotionaly fear based belief without any foundation or practicality or reality that has cost our western societies and peoples an immense amount of wealth and has led to the destruction of lives on a significant scale all for a ideology which doesn’t , hasn’t and can’t even provide any carefully considered aimed for average global temperatures as the solution to their truly hypocritical demands that others must make to make further sacrifices so as to “save the planet”.

    I wonder what the inhabitants of each of these extreme environments below would say about the demands of the climate extremists ?

    Dallol, Ethiopia
    This scorching hot town in the Afar Depression of Ethiopia holds the record for having the highest average annual temperature ever recorded. From 1960 to 1966, Dallol averaged 94 degrees Fahrenheit [ 34.44 C ] (daytime temperatures regularly rose to over 100 degrees). This number is an annual average, meaning that Dallol’s temperature dips only moderately throughout the year.
    There is almost never a break from the heat at any time of the year.

    Dallol is a ghost town today, but back in the 1960s it was a mining settlement. Its modern attractions include the fascinating hydrothermal deposits like those shown here. It’s also interesting to note that the Afar Depression, where Dallol is located, is a volcanically active region, not far from a volcano of the same name. So the heat must seem to come from every direction here: from the sun above, and bubbling up from the ground below.

    Dallol[ Ethiopia ]weather summary for coming week
    The maximum temperature for Dallol over the next 7 day will be 43℃ (or 109℉) on Wednesday 7th May at around 3 pm. In the same week the minimum temperature will be 29℃ (or 85℉) on Sunday 4th May at around 6 am. Our Dallol weather forecaster is reporting Thursday 8th May to be the wettest day in the coming week with around 0.50mm (or 0.0 inches) of rainfall. Make sure to carry an umbrella if you are out and about in Dallol. The windiest of all days will be Saturday 3rd May as wind will reach 11mph (or 18kmph) at around 6 pm.
    ___________________________
    Oymyokan Siberia

    Positioned deep in Siberia, the village of Oymyakon holds the distinction of being the coldest permanently inhabited place on Earth.
    Just a few hundred miles from the Arctic Circle and reaching record lows of -96.16 degrees.C one is forced to ponder not only why, but also how the villagers of this remotest of remote locations survive.
    With a day that varies from 3 hours in the winter to 21 hours in the summer and permanently frozen ground due to the extreme subarctic climate, the roughly 500 residents of Oymyakon are mostly unable to grow crops, therefore their diet basically consists of reindeer and horse meat. While spoiled kids to the south get out of school for snow days, the children of Oymyakon are stuck in class unless the temperature falls below –52C. If you were to go outside naked on an average day, it would take approximately one minute for you to freeze to death.
    Besides the obvious issues of remoteness, the cold itself forces this village to be a simple place with few conveniences. Cars are hard to start with frozen axle grease and fuel tanks, unused pipes can freeze within 5 hours, batteries lose life at an alarming speed. Pen ink freezes, anything less than fur fails at keeping the chill off, and electronics are all but useless.
    Perhaps one of the most difficult challenges facing these rugged people existing within “Stalin’s Death Ring” is the burial of their dead. With the ground in a state of permafrost, it takes several days to dig a grave, a strenuous task of lighting a bonfire for a few hours, then pushing the coals aside to dig a few inches, then starting another fire, and so on and so forth, until the hole is big enough to hold a coffin.
    _________________
    Oymyakon, Siberia Russia

    Folks in Oymyakon take exception whenever Verkhoyansk lays claim to being the coldest location in the Northern Hemisphere, pointing out that they recorded a low of minus 90 degrees F on Feb. 6, 1933. Depending on whom you ask, 500 to 800 people call Oymyakon home, a three-day drive from Yakutsk. Schools stay open through minus 52 degrees.

    The village is named after a local hot spring, which some residents tap during the winter by breaking through the thick crust of ice rimming the warm water. Oymyakon’s tourism board has promoted the town as a perfect destination for adventure travelers hungry for a taste of the extreme.

    As of 02/05 18:00
    Past observations Overcast and light snow
    Feels Like: -5°
    Barometer: 1005.7 hPa
    Dewpoint: -7°
    Humidity: 58.7%
    Visibility: 10 km

    Sun rise: 06:04
    Sun set: 22:48

    3 day outlook
    Today
    Hi: 0°
    Lo: -6°

    Tomorrow
    Hi: 0°
    Lo: -14°

    Sunday
    Hi: +3°
    Lo: -12

    Warm welcome at frozen village

    90

    • #
      ROM

      OOPS! Correction and I should have checked in my post above. Got taken in by the mix of F” and C” temps used in the article.

      “reaching record lows of -96.16 degrees.C [ = 71.2 C ]

      The minus 96.16 is degrees “F” not “C”

      The recent minus 71.2 C is also of doubtful status for Oymyakon but the 1933 record of minus 67.8 C is accepted as the coldest records for a human settlement.

      Welcome to the coldest village on Earth
      &

      Antarctica’s Russian Vostok station has the lowest temperatures ever recorded on Earth’s surface in part due to Vostok’s elevation.
      Antarctica: Lowest Temperature
      Record Value -89.2°C (-129°F)
      Date of Event 21/7/1983
      Length of Record 1912-present
      Instrumentation Maximum/Minimum Thermometer in Standard Stevenson Screen
      Geospatial Location Vostok, Antarctica [77°32'S, 106°40'E, elevation: 3420 m]

      A new Antarctic satellite derived surface low temperature record is claimed at minus 93 C [ minus 136 F ]

      Sources various but here

      40

      • #
        vic g gallus

        Great article. You missed quoting a few things though. Most houses still have outdoor toilets and

        Farmer Nikolai Petrovich waters his cows at a patch of thermal water on the edge of Oymyakon. Despite its terrible winters, in June, July and August temperatures over 30c are not uncommon.

        10

    • #
      Andrew McRae

      a strenuous task of lighting a bonfire for a few hours, then pushing the coals aside to dig a few inches, then starting another fire, and so on

      `Ere. Makes you wonder how the family of the frozen mammoths lit their bonfires, dunnit?

      :)

      20

  • #
    Ted

    This only goes to show how far Nature has dropped as a serious journal. Prostituting itself to anything that looks like it perpetuates the AGW myth. It probably did not have this paper peer reviewed even. It has a habit of neglecting peer review for favoured authors and topics.

    50

  • #
    thingadonta

    First rule about research proposals, assume the result then set out to prove it.

    It’s very much early witch doctor days in the field of climate medicine.

    Here is one howler

    “All temperature-related mortality is potentially preventable”.

    All mortality is ‘potentially preventable’. That is why we have hospitals, but that doesn’t mean that we ever eliminate mortality.

    “We did not adjust for actual adaptation responses”.

    So if they didn’t adjust, the result is that there is no adjustment, which is exactly what they wanted to prove.

    Honestly, if a journal publishes this crap it only serves to undermine science in the long term. You could get the same thing from the witchdoctors journal of voodoo medicine. Somebody please make these journals a bit more accountable.

    “We didn’t adjust for those voodoo dolls in which the subject had no coincident response”.

    70

  • #
    manalive

    They also find there was “no evidence”  that humans adapted to extreme temperatures. It’s a notion that seems self-evidently silly …

    Absolutely ridiculous when you consider that Sweden and Norway were covered in an ice sheet up until about 6,000 years ago.
    Swedish like most language groups in Europe is Indo-European which originated somewhere in the Black Sea/Caspian Sea/South-Central Asia areas from where populations spread into Europe as the ice retreated.
    The first settlements in southern Sweden are reckoned to have begun about 2,500BC so it’s hardy likely that by some biological evolutionary process they are less capable of surviving an occasional 30C day than anyone else on the planet.

    80

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    the Griss

    Deaths occur in Stockholm once it gets over 16C because people actually get up out of their chairs in front of the wood burning CO2 emitting fire and venture outside into the vast unknown.

    00

    • #
      the Griss

      I have to apologise for the change in avatar.

      I mistyped my email address !! :-)

      00

      • #
        the Griss

        instead of @optusnet.. I had @ ooptusnet. ….. :lol

        (I shouldn’t drink and type, I guess.) !

        00

  • #
    the Griss

    “Rising Temperatures Blamed For Up To 300 Premature Deaths”

    Premature .. what ?????

    00

    • #
      handjive

      I have a mate, has a bumper sticker from the Dali Lama asking to contribute money to fight Global Warming.

      I asked him if you knew you were going to be re-incarnated, why would you need money to flight Global Warming and save the planet?

      Consequently, we are not close friends anymore.

      70

    • #
      Robert JM

      Old men seeing young girls in t-shirts could have been quite a shock for the circulatory systems!

      10

  • #
    Peter Miller

    This is just one more instance of why climate science is not a real science, but something more akin to astrology or phrenology.

    There is so much money today sloshing around in the troughs of climate science research, as a result of it becoming such a trendy fad for the lets-save-the worlders.

    Dream up a subject, put a scary spin on it, make sure it always requires much more research and voila you have a career and a comfortable lifestyle. The fact you know you are living a lie just reflects the incredibly low standard of ethics in the Climate Change Industry.

    The concept of runaway summer deaths in Sweden due to CO2 and global warming is just so ludicrous, I cannot see why anyone would ever take it seriously, unless of course they had been got at by the unscrupulous grandmasters of the Climate Change Industry – and that is presumably what happened at Nature.

    50

  • #
    handjive

    Peak Stupid-
    Australia can expect an influx of boat arrivals some time in October, with a flotilla planning to make a spectacular entry into Sydney Harbour to bring attention to the impact of climate change on the Pacific.

    20

    • #
      GreggB

      … and will be diverted to Manus Island.

      There are tens of thousands of islands in the Pacific. I’d find it a lot easier to take this sort of thing seriously if there was just a few which could demonstrate actual land area loss as a direct result of a rise in sea levels/global warming.

      Really, handjive, I don’t think we’re anywhere near peak stupid yet. The problem is, there is a level of stupid beyond which society/infrastructure will be unsupportable. Maybe Tony has some numbers …

      10

  • #
    thingadonta

    If heat causes more deaths, perhaps they should ban indoor heating and let everyone freeze?

    I think the good people in Sweden will politely ignore this, as just another example of claptrap statistics from government funded windbags.

    “The animals just wished they had more food and less statistics”. G.Orwell, Animal Farm.

    70

    • #
      vic g gallus

      NIST calibrate assuming a room temperature of 20°C. Some older volumetric flasks are calibrated for a room temperature of 25°C.

      A webs site ‘ecorenovator’ has a thread where people who are supposedly eco friendly will have the thermostat come on in the morning at 20°C because they hate the cold. You’re gonna die if you keep doing that.

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    Rogueelement451

    Time to rewrite the history of the Vikings, it is quite apparent now that they were climate refugees in search of cooler lands.

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    diogenese2

    This paper by Astrom (or should that be Angstrom – to reflect the breadth of its contribution to scientific knowledge) is a quality parody of the methods of climate science in that it simply tortures data to product a headline – “warming kills”.
    This is Sweden FFS! Scandinavia is COLD. Its great artists (Ibsen, Strindberg, Sibelius, Ingmar Bergman, Abba) are all gloomy and pessimistic. They are passionately against “global warming” – they want it to be COLDER. You could not make it up – no wonder at the national levels of alcoholism and suicide.
    In passing – on the subject of statistical distortion sceptics must be careful not to be too reckless. A current meme in the UK is “fuel costs kill 30,000 each winter”.
    The 30k refers to the average difference in the mortality between winter & summer half years. This has been steadily declining with improving housing and health care. The spikes correlate with the index of influenza. Its a high impact headline but is still a lie and should not be promulgated.
    The information is from the Office of National Statistics – the worlds deepest data mine. At the lowest levels academic sociologists and economists work – constantly sprayed with water to stop them overheating with excitement at being able to “prove” anything they want.
    Beware of “lies, dammed lies and statistics” (author probably unknown )

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      ROM

      There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.

      Benjamin Disraeli , British statesman 1804 – 1881
      __________________________
      “There are lies, damned lies and statistics”.

      Mark Twain [ Samuel Clemens [ 1835 - 1910 ] who adopted the Mississippi river boat men’s call when taking the river depth. Two fathoms [ 12 feet depth ] was required for the River boats and when the sounder had 2 fathoms he sang out “Mark Twain”.

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        diogenese2

        there is no evidence that Disraeli ever said or wrote this – Sam Clemens just thought he did.

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          Roy Hogue

          Someone must have said it, I’ve seen it quoted often enough. Perhaps like the myth that Nero fiddled while Rome burned, it was never said but mysteriously appeared in the human lexicon because someone thought it should have been said. ;-)

          However, from Ask.com…

          ‘Lies, damned lies and statistics’ is a phrase attributed to the power associated with figures. The phrase popularized by Mark Twain is attributed to a one time British Prime Minister Benjamin Disraeli. The phrase is commonly used to doubt statistics given to support government positions.

          It may be uncertain who first said it but we know Twain made it part of our heritage of English wit or wisdom, whichever it is. Possibly it originated with Twain. But who knows?

          Climate science seems to be an animal all by itself however.

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        cohenite

        There are lies, damned lies and statistics

        There are lies, damned lies, statistics and climate science.

        FIFY.

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    ROM

    This post of Jo’s raises the role of human adaption, the ability of the individual person as well as the ability of a genetic line of humans to adapt to the very wide variations in climate across the climatic regimes of the planet.
    Some years ago I read, and this was before the internet, of a study on a number of identical twins that had been separated at birth, not uncommon 4 or 5 or more decades ago when there was no birth control drugs , families were often large and the income wasn’t there to support any more mouths to feed and look after.

    In this study some identical twin pairs were found who individually had been adopted in two widely different climate regime areas.
    The identical twins adopted in warm to hot climates were taller and thinner with longer limbs than their fellow identical twin from the colder climate who had a shorter stockier body and was shorter limbed.

    A typical response to the loss of body heat where the surface area of a mammal is biologically adapted so as to lose or retain heat so as to maintain a close to normal temperature for that mammal or in this case the human mammals.

    The tall longer limbed twin had considerably greater body area for their mass than than their shorter stockier twin and so lost heat faster than the smaller body area and stockier twin with their shorter limbs.
    The tall twin had adapted to the hotter climes with a larger body area to get rid of excess heat so as to maintain the optimum of body temperature for a human being..
    The shorter stockier twin with the reduced body surface area compared to their body mass had biologically adapted in a way that retained more body heat in a cold climate again to maintain the optimum body temperature.

    For those interested in the biological response of humans and animals to wide variations in climate or even relatively fast changes in climate and the ability for the mammalian body, ie: humans to adapt, this article will be of interest.
    ________________________________
    Adapting to Climate Extremes

    Bergmann’s Rule

    In 1847, the German biologist Carl Bergmann observed that within the same species of warm-blooded animals, populations having less massive individuals are more often found in warm climates near the equator, while those with greater bulk, or mass, are found further from the equator in colder regions. This is due to the fact that big animals generally have larger body masses which result in more heat being produced. The greater amount of heat results from there being more cells. A normal byproduct of metabolism in cells is heat production. Subsequently, the more cells an animal has, the more internal heat it will produce.

    In addition, larger animals usually have a smaller surface area relative to their body mass and, therefore, are comparatively inefficient at radiating their body heat off into the surrounding environment. The relationship between surface area and volume of objects was described in the 1630′s by Galileo. It can be demonstrated with the cube shaped boxes shown below. Note that the volume increases twice as fast as the surface area. This is the reason that relatively less surface area results in relatively less heat being lost from animals.
    &
    Bergmann’s rule generally holds for people as well. A study of 100 human populations during the early 1950′s showed a strong negative correlation between body mass and mean annual temperature of the region. In other words, when the air temperature is consistently high, people usually have low body mass. Similarly, when the temperature is low, they have high mass. However, there are exceptions. Our clothing and technologies that allow us to keep buildings warm in the winter and cool in the summer tend to offset the effects of natural selection now in shaping our bodies. In addition, culturally guided mate selection criteria also somewhat counter Bergmann’s rule for humans.
    _____________________

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      James Bradley

      To extrapolate from a physiology to a psychology then:

      Sceptic + Embrace Change = Adaptability (survival trait)

      Warmist + Fear Change = Stagnation (non-survival trait)

      I figure as long as the AGW propaganda machine is now scraping the bottom of the armoury, I may as well draw a longbow too.

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      Roy Hogue

      Genetic theory is now coming around to the conclusion that supposedly genetically determined traits can in fact be modified by environment and nurture. I’ve no link because I read this in a doctors waiting room — sometimes they still have worthwhile reading material. Unfortunately I don’t remember the name of the publication.

      But the example of the twins is exactly what I was reading about except for not being about climate. We are tougher, we humans, than many of us are willing to assume.

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    Dan Clancy

    Several years ago a Japanese friend of mine called me from Cairns where she had been living for some time. She was concerned about how cold the weather had become. I was surprised to hear that it might be cold in Cairns so I asked what the temperature had been. She replied “Bloody freezing! Last night 22 degrees”

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      Andrew

      It can be a worry. I fell asleep shirtless with window open in August as it was still quite warm at 11. But by 4am I was really very chilly. The headlines would have read “global cooling kills Aussie in Cairns” if I had succumbed to hypothermia.

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        Andrew McRae

        And the next day the Swedish would have been laughing at the intolerance of Aussies for cold.

        Just goes to show people will adapt to their environment whether it be extreme or comfortable.

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        Roy Hogue

        I know exactly what you mean. Cold and hot can be relative.

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    blackadderthe4th

    ‘Past studies established that winter kills more people than summer’, and added to the people that are killed by AGW, just goes to show that weather can be dangerous. Too much cold equals death, too much much heat equals death by heat stress!

    ‘The 2003 European heat wave was the hottest summer on record in Europe since at least 1540.[1] France was hit especially hard. The heat wave led to health crises in several countries and combined with drought to create a crop shortfall in parts of Southern Europe. Peer reviewed analysis places the European death toll at 70,000.’

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2003_European_heat_wave

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      And the great mystery from the France experience was that though thousands died during August 2003 and for the next few months death rates were normal — the following two years recorded less deaths than expected, and the mortality deficit was far larger than the 2003 excess mortality. The locales where lives were saved did not necessarily match the ones where lives were lost. The most convincing explanation I read was that people in France perhaps became more aware and vigilant towards older people living alone and by taking better care of them they avoided or delayed their deaths.

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        blackadderthe4th

        ‘the following two years recorded less deaths than expected’, because they learned not to go on holiday en masse and leave the older people to their fate!

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        James Bradley

        So then, were the deaths actually caused by higher local temperatures in August or did the higher local temperatures motivate more people to vacation away in August rather than stay with the elderly?

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      Roy Hogue

      At 40 C (104 F) and at my 75 years age I would find it stressful too. On the other hand, I would stay out of the sun and have air conditioning available to keep the house at a better temperature. I would certainly avoid any of the kind of physical activity I did as a child in similar temperatures without any distress. I used to run home from school on days like that when I was about 12 years old just for the run — a little more than a mile. No problem then. But a big problem now.

      So no one denies that heat can be dangerous. I do wonder about the validity of throwing around death rates all the time though. We ought to take our clue from insurance companies, organizations whose very financial survival depends on being able to correctly predict the probability of various population groups dying from various causes within the next year, 5 years or 10 years, whatever it is. Insurance actuaries have to get it right. And they do.

      Of course those numbers don’t say anything about what will happen to one individual but they do give a real world basis for talking about risk. And that’s what were talking about when we get into the details of global warming or a heat wave, what is the risk? At 12 my probability (risk) of dying within the next 10 years was essentially zero, even running a mile in 100 degrees. At 75 it’s unfortunately considerably higher, even without the running; according to average life span statistics, nearly 1. But death rates aren’t so useful and I tend to suspect those who throw them around of not understanding the meaning of statistics or of ulterior motive such as sowing fear.

      And I don’t mean to be accusing you, BA 4th, of anything. Just stating an opinion for whatever it’s worth.

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    Roy Hogue

    But the first thing you need to know is that they don’t appear to start with actual mortality data in the early 1900′s. Surprised?

    No, not surprised at all. Why bother with reality?

    There are no end of ways to make a name for yourself, whether you’ve done something useful or not. But having done nothing useful doesn’t seem to stop those with that dubious credential. The only rule is to sell fear — sell it and sell it and sell it.

    Here’s another one — trivial and different to be sure but way off base. Last year I needed to see my dermatologist and since I hadn’t been there for a long time I got the stack of paperwork to fill out (again). One of the health questions was, do you wear your seat belt? Is that a medical issue? I’ll leave it for readers to decide. But I wrote, “None of your business,” next to that one. The receptionist just smiled when she looked over the form for completeness and read my comment.

    We’re now living George Orwell, even down to the blaring TV screen in every waiting room that no one can shut off and cameras right alongside of the TV. And coming soon to your living room I suspect.

    On the death from global [fill in the blank] question. The death rate remains the same as always, 1/person. And if these scientists are so concerned, let them busy themselves providing adequate air conditioning or heating to those who need it. Nothing succeeds better than a direct assault on the problem.

    By now the cost of global warming/cooling/confusion/BS has probably become a number with 12 zeros between the significant digits and the decimal point. With that amount of money to spend we could solve the heat/cold problem for everyone at risk and have money left over.

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      PhilJourdan

      On the death from global [fill in the blank] question. The death rate remains the same as always, 1/person.

      Part of the hysteria of both the CAGW crowd and most nut cases is they want people to believe they can escape death. Now, intellectually, all but the most moronic (in a scientific sense) of us know that is impossible. But on an emotional level, people still fear death, so they think they can evade it.

      That is why any intellectual analysis of these claims always fail. They are not appealing to intellect. But to emotion.

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        Roy Hogue

        You’re quite right, Phil.

        Nonetheless, it’s not death that I fear but not continuing to live until I’m really dead. I watched my father give up near the end of his life and become a living dead man. My mother then followed suit some years later. This is the greatest tragedy of all, never mind anything else.

        I swore I would never fall for that. Even if nothing else is left to me I’ll be cracking jokes right up until they close the body bag over my face. If I can do nothing more than smile and hold a conversation with someone then that’s what I’ll do.

        Of course, no sane person wants to die. And I certainly don’t. But human nature doesn’t include immortality. Death is our natural end and I see no reason to fear it. I’ll fight death, fight it right up to the end. And I’ll do that because life is worth having. But I know it will end.

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          Annie

          Well said! I hope to do the same…preferably dropping in the potato patch!

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          PhilJourdan

          It was my grandfather, but the same experience. I have no fear of death. I fear the living death.

          But then we are acting on the intellect, not the emotion.

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            Roy Hogue

            But then we are acting on the intellect, not the emotion.

            Exactly as we should do it. Emotions are meant to tell us something but they should never make our decisions. That’s why we have a brain capable of more than emotion.

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              PhilJourdan

              That’s why we have a brain capable of more than emotion.

              Tell that to my wife.

              {OUCH} Sorry Honey! I will erase it. Honest! ;-)

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      Roy Hogue

      Interesting crash. If there’s something that can be hit, someone may someday hit it.

      I see they still persist in this nonsense.

      It is also unclear if the pilot had filed a flight plan.

      What is clear is that whether the pilot filed a flight plan or not is totally irrelevant to the crash. And if the pilot had filed a flight plan the NTSB would know about it because it would be in the system (computer) and could be looked up and read. All you’d need to find it is the aircraft’s tail (registration) number.

      I know it’s tempting to blame the wind farm but it would have been clearly marked as tall towers by well recognized symbols on the pilot’s sectional chart, complete with the elevation of the tallest tower above sea level.

      I’d give my whole net worth for just one reporter on aviation matters who is actually a pilot and understands how the world above ground level works — just one.

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        I guess the radical environmentalists are the only ones calling the pilot a murderer.

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          Mark D.

          Right. The rest wait for a jury.

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            Roy Hogue

            I appreciate the humor. And given things fanatics have already said, calling it murder to eat meat, etc., I can easily suspect it might happen. But it’s important to know that to hit the wind turban blade the pilot was way below a safe, sensible altitude. There are several reasons why he might be where he was but all of them are a failure, either human or mechanical.

            The pilot seems very likely to be blamed for what happened.

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        JLC

        I used to fly for fun. Wind farms pose a risk to aircraft that is not apparent to people who don’t fly. The fan blades cause turbulence that persists for a very long way downwind. That turbulence is invisible and could cause problems for small aircraft flying at very low altitudes. I would be surprised if wind farms do not cause aircraft crashes.

        Birds are even more at risk because they are even smaller than small aircraft.

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          Roy Hogue

          Wind farms pose a risk to aircraft that is not apparent to people who don’t fly.

          And unfortunately, even sometimes to those who do, as I proved one day by tangling with the last of the wake turbulence of a great big DC8. I thought I had waited long enough for it to dissipate but it hangs on for a long time and as you said, you can’t see it. Fortunately no harm done.

          The wake turbulence and the downstream vortex come from the same cause, air moving over an airfoil, whether it’s the wing of an airplane or the blade of the windmill. Both are airfoils just arranged differently mechanically. So pilots should understand it. Which is not to say we should like it.

          In this case the airplane hit one of the blades though. And there’s not enough information to tell how the crash happened.

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            Here’s a tiny bit of an update as to what the investigators found. Obviously too early for any cause to be determined, if we ever figure it out;

            http://www.argusleader.com/story/news/2014/05/02/ntsb-releases-preliminary-report-plane-crash/8640297/

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              Roy Hogue

              Sheri,

              The first thing of interest will be the weather conditions at the time and whether the pilot was on a sensible route between his point of origin and destination or not, i.e.; could he have become lost because of bad weather, inattention or navigation mistake. If there had been a flight plan that would give the pilot’s intended route and cruise altitude to investigators but if not then they have to do educated guesswork.

              Examination of the engine will show whether it was developing significant power at the time the propeller blades hit something or whether it might have been windmilling (possibly power failure). The propeller blades will give similar indications. Other parts of the aircraft can disclose whether there was any structural or control failure and it’s possible to tell pre crash failure from crash damage a lot of the time because crash damage will show the signature of sudden encounter with a solid object at high speed and pre crash stuff doesn’t have that same signature.

              Postmortem examination of the pilot will reveal if he had a heart attack, had any drugs or alcohol in his system, etc.

              I’ve no doubt they’ll even look into whether the wind farm’s trailing vortex could have been a factor.

              The NTSB is fanatically thorough. In time a pretty good picture of what must have happened will be put together. Of course none of it will prove that the NTSB finding is exactly what happened. But they get it right most of the time.

              If you remember all the theories surrounding the explosion of TWA 800 in 1996 they included being shot down by one of our own missiles, complete with supposed pictures of the missile. The NTSB wasn’t distracted by that. Instead they brought up every part of that airplane from the bottom of the Atlantic and reassembled the parts in a hanger so they could see how the damage happened. Not only was there not any evidence of a blow from outside or penetration by anything from the outside, there was the telltale evidence of an explosion in the center fuel tank.

              Needless to say there are people who don’t accept the NTSB findings on TWA 800 to this day. We talk constantly here about science, evidence based conclusions. And that’s what the NTSB is all about, forensic science — actual evidence based conclusions about what happened when things went wrong. And they’re very good at that job. Let’s let them work. The comments of reporters aren’t even in the same ballpark.

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                I agree with you. The weather matters, the route matters, etc. If all else fails to give an answer, the trailing vortex might be looked at. Yes, the NTSB is fanatical and thorough and they do remarkable research into plane crashes. My hope here is that as with TWA 800, the answer will be delivered without political spin.

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                Roy Hogue

                Political spin? Surely you don’t mean to imply that the NTSB will spin it. On the other hand, numerous others certainly will. Witness the fact that JFK Jr.’s friends were not willing to accept the NTSB findings about the cause of his crash near Martha’s Vineyard.

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                I mean I hope the NTSB does not fall victim to the policatization of science that is so prevalent in the world today.

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                Roy Hogue

                I don’t know of any political spin having been done by the NTSB and I don’t know why they would. They take their responsibility more seriously than most federal agencies. However, when it comes to involvement of more that one nation’s aviation accident investigation agency being involved there’s sometimes a lot of finger pointing. The Tenerife crash between KLM and Pan Am 747s on the runway was caused by just one man, the KLM pilot, who began his takeoff before getting a clearance to do it. Pan Am was still in the way and the rest we know.

                The Dutch, however disputed the indisputable and do so to this day. When national pride is on the line honesty apparently isn’t the best policy sometimes.

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    Peewhit

    Roy, just what I thought. lives are never saved only extended. You get one life and one death, and hopefully the death will surprise you instead of being something hoped for. Warm will only kill you if you get lost or bogged in the centre of Oz in summer without enough water. Cold is a well proven danger, as those who die in snowed in cars might tell you, if they could come back to say so. Or if you are homeless in the northern hemisphere in snow country.

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      Roy Hogue

      There is plenty of danger from heat if you’re old, sick and can’t keep cool. Water is not the only problem for some people when it’s hot. But I agree with you in general, especially about cold. Sometimes it doesn’t even take anything we would call extreme or unusual to be fatal.

      The solution is to have the energy available to warm or cool yourself as needed — the very thing our governments want to deny us in the name of saving the planet.

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    old44

    People dying in an average mean temperature of 19.6C, what happened? did they forget to take their fur coats off.

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    Colin Henderson

    Maybe medical staff took time off to enjoy the lovely weather, leaving facilities short staffed and unable to cope with the terminally ill.

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    tom0mason

    “… can I suggest that if “all temperature related mortality is potentially preventable” what we really need are days with no temperature, so no one ever dies. (Ban thermometers: cut the celcius, and kill the kelvin.)…”

    Placards at the ready!

    What do we want?

    No temperature!

    When do we want it?

    Now!

    What do we want?

    No temperature!

    When do we want it?

    Now!

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    Mark D.

    ” All temperature-related mortality is potentially preventable, making mortality during extreme temperature events a public health concern.”/

    Those deaths are nearly all because of an underlying medical problem or negligence (the deceased did something stupid to themselves or someone else did it to them). Making it a “public health concern” whatever that is, isn’t likely to make people healthier or smarter. Making that statement is perfunctory in this paper because the target audience want’s to hear it. Just more Nanny State B.S. the UN will waive about.

    What exactly is a “temperature related death? ” There is not a single definitive temperature death curve for homo sapiens. What is a “heat extreme” and “cold extreme” changes with latitude………

    I think it’s more likely to be a “humidity related death” than warmer temperatures. What study have they done to show the impact of humidity?

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    Mark D.

    Rats bad formatting:

    ” All temperature-related mortality is potentially preventable, making mortality during extreme temperature events a public health concern.”

    Those deaths are nearly all because of an underlying medical problem or negligence (the deceased did something stupid to themselves or someone else did it to them). Making it a “public health concern” whatever that is, isn’t likely to make people healthier or smarter. Making that statement is perfunctory in this paper because the target audience want’s to hear it. Just more Nanny State B.S. the UN will waive about.

    What exactly is a “temperature related death? ” There is not a single definitive temperature death curve for homo sapiens. What is a “heat extreme” and “cold extreme” changes with latitude………

    I think it’s more likely to be a “humidity related death” than warmer temperatures. What study have they done to show the impact of humidity?

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    What is this nonsense about “extreme weather”? Last Sunday, it topped out at 44 degrees (7 C) with snow and today it’s 72 (22C) with an anticipated 79 on this Sunday. Two weeks ago, it was 30F on Sunday and 74 F (23C) on Saturday. Why does no one mention that a lot of people live in areas with huge temperature swings and they just adapt? Oh, that wouldn’t follow the narrative…….

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      Mark D.

      Ooh Sheri, sorry. According to this paper and those temperatures, you will likely die.

      Adaptation is just too many syllables

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        We all die someday. The trick is to not get counted in the bogus climate statistics–and that’s becoming harder all the time. Pretty soon, death will be caused by climate change irregardless of what the actual event was the precipitated it. It will make filling out death certificates much easier, though.

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          Roy Hogue

          Sheri,

          If you had ever read a California death certificate you couldn’t possibly call anything about it easier. They want line after line of cause, sub cause, sub sub cause…

          I was flabbergasted to see the list of causes my first wife’s doctor had to put on her death certificate. I’d bet nothing in medicine is ever permitted to get easier, only more difficult.

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            My idea was that if the warmists had their way, everything would be attributed to climate chnage, so the cause of death would always be “climate change”. Whether the sub causes and so forth would go away depends on how much the warmists want climate change to be responsible. A sub cause might cast doubt on the primary cause and weaken their argument. Things only get easier when they are politically expedient–so if a single cause of death, climate change, helps the cause…….

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          PhilJourdan

          It is already happening. They attributed a death this past winter to one of the storms. How did the guy die? He cut down a tree.

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            Roy Hogue

            I assume he was hit by the falling tree or fell out of it, something like that. Was the tree damaged by a storm? But still, that’s an awful stretch to make.

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              PhilJourdan

              The tree was damaged by the storm. he was then trying to cut it down the rest of the way. After the storm.

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    old44

    Visit Stockholm in July and watch birds fall out of trees.

    http://www.holiday-weather.com/stockholm/averages/

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    pat

    Graeme No.3 -

    re your comment on World Bank/Green Bonds/UniSuper. funny. i just came here to post the following, because Foxtel-funded A-PAC Channel has scheduled – at least four times today – a one and a half hour program on the following lecture at UNSW. that’s SIX HOURS of TV time. tellingly, no MSM coverage otherwise, yet this is all about grabbing as much as possible of the $83 trillion of Super Funds (World Bank Green Bonds/UniSuper are mentioned), pension funds, etc referred to as AUM (Assets Under Management) to fund the CAGW scam. surely a topic of considerable interest to the public, who have no clue this is the plan! what I just saw would appeal only to any wannabe carbon cowboys in the audience:

    20 April: UNSW: Public lecture – De-carbonising for growth: why everyone is wrong about the costs of addressing climate change
    Date: Tuesday, 29 April, 2014
    Audience / Guests: Alumni
    Cost: Free
    About Dr Michael Molitor
    Michael Molitor has a PhD from Cambridge University, England and was a Ford Foundation post-doctoral fellow at Harvard University. He has also held academic appointments at Stanford University, University of California, Berkeley, and Columbia University.
    He is the founder of CarbonShift Ltd, an Australian company with a focus on helping companies develop, implement and communicate strategies to respond to the challenge of a climate system modified by human activity. CarbonShift, which is based in Sydney, has partnered with PricewaterhouseCoopers to deliver corporate carbon management strategies that both protect and enhance shareholder value…
    Dr Molitor was a member of the faculty at the University of California, San Diego and the Climate Research Division at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography. He also served as an external advisor to BP on the development of the company’s climate change strategy and attended most of the United Nations negotiations on climate change since 1991…
    http://www.ccrc.unsw.edu.au/news/news/2014-04-20_publiclecture.html

    28 Jan: Climate Bonds: Dr Michael Molitor, Kristian Brüning and Dr Alex Rau join Climate Bonds team to support new Climate Science Advisory Committee supervising criteria for Climate Bond Standards
    A Climate Science Reference Framework will anchor the Climate Bonds Taxonomy and Climate Bond Standards to projections of needed emission reductions and adaptation measures from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and internationally respected climate science research centres…
    Climate Bonds CEO Sean Kidney said: “Common standards are essential for growing bond markets and preventing greenwashing scandals that would damage the reputation of bond issuers and investors alike.”
    “Investors need clarity about what really is green – what’s important to environmental protection and addressing climate change. In particular they need clarity on the investments needed to achieve a rapid transition to a low-carbon and climate change resilient world.”…
    Climate Bond Standards Board members are:
    the Institutional Investor Group on Climate Change (EU);
    the Ceres Investor Network on Climate Risk (USA);
    the Investor Group on Climate Change (Australia);
    the California State Teachers’ Retirement System (CalSTRS);
    the Office of the California State Treasurer, Bill Lockyer;
    CDP (formerly the Carbon Disclosure Project);
    the Natural Resources Defense Council.
    Michael Molitor is currently a visiting professor at SciencesPo in Paris, teaching in the International Energy program. All three have previously held key climate change-related at both McKinsey and PwC.
    http://www.climatebonds.net/category/standards/

    next broadcast is around midday, with the trillions’ talk starting about 50 mins in.

    love the bit where the globe-trotting Molitor happens to be in Paris & meets up with some Chinese delegation who admit China made a wrong move, following the economic model of the West, & thinking coal was a cheap form of energy.

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      Winston

      This is the Green end game, aside of course from depopulating the planet (with the exception of the Green chosen few of course). They aim through subterfuge to misappropriate a goodly proportion of that $83 trillion dollars on the pretext of a planetary emergency that doesn’t exist, to promote technology that doesn’t work, and to divert wealth from the many to the few (under the guise of helping “the poor”- who will instead be systematically deprived of the sustenance, and then inevitably the will, to live).

      These people are the true refuse of humanity, the elitist scumbag crony capitalists of “Big Money”, the dumb-as-a-box-of-rocks amoral keptocrats, and the carpetbagger eco-evangelists in an unholy alliance to decimate the human race for profit. It cannot and will not end well. The question is, will the apathetic majority wake up, and will the reaction to this realisation that they have been fleeced lead to something far more violent, and far more devastating than these genocidal maniacs have contemplated?

      Somehow, I think the concepts of justice, individual and collective freedom, intellectual independence, human ingenuity and the rigorous application of scientific principles are sadly in the twilight’s last gleaming of their existence.

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    • #
      Graeme No.3

      Re chinese comment:
      1. was it actually made by a chinese official?
      2. was it made up to maintain the scam?

      If 1. it was probably made to keep silly foreigner heading in the wrong direction, or it may have been made by someone annoyed by pollution at home and told over and over that CO2 was pollution (and pollution was CO2).

      If 2. Wouldn’t be the first time would it?

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    handjive

    Uh-Oh.

    Carbon cuts for 2015 should not be determined by 2C target, says Russia

    International talks on addressing climate change are now entering a critical stage, with a global agreement scheduled for next December in Paris.

    But many developed and developing countries still disagree over who needs to make the toughest greenhouse gas cuts, and how these should be funded.
    . . .
    Russia laughs at the stupid Global Warming believers, better known as ‘useful idiots‘.

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      ROM

      Ah! That great goal of the climate catastrophe alarmists, that almost mythical saviour of the planet, that holy relic of the global warming faithful that will save the planet from extinction, meeting the Two degree target

      For those who do not know the story behind the creation of that beyond Two Degrees warming extinction event this is where you will find just who and how invented that just out of the blue, Two Degrees target on which so many claims of catastrophic consequences for the planet and life on Earth now rests if the Earth goes beyond that two degree temperature increase.

      There was NO science involved in the creation of the Two Degree target.

      Germany’s well known, high profile Der Spiegel, April 2010.

      Climate Catastrophe: A Superstorm for Global Warming Research

      Part 8: The Invention of the Two-Degree Target

      “Climate models involve some of the most demanding computations of any simulations, and only a handful of institutes worldwide have the necessary supercomputers. The computers must run at full capacity for months to work their way through the jungle of data produced by coupled differential equations.

      All of this is much too complicated for politicians, who aren’t terribly interested in the details. They have little use for radiation budgets and ocean-atmosphere circulation models. Instead, they prefer simple targets.

      For this reason a group of German scientists, yielding to political pressure, invented an easily digestible message in the mid-1990s: the two-degree target. To avoid even greater damage to human beings and nature, the scientists warned, the temperature on Earth could not be more than two degrees Celsius higher than it was before the beginning of industrialization.

      It was a pretty audacious estimate. Nevertheless, the powers-that-be finally had a tangible number to work with. An amazing success story was about to begin.

      ‘Clearly a Political Goal’

      Rarely has a scientific idea had such a strong impact on world politics. Most countries have now recognized the two-degree target. If the two-degree limit were exceeded, German Environment Minister Norbert Röttgen announced ahead of the failed Copenhagen summit, “life on our planet, as we know it today, would no longer be possible.”

      But this is scientific nonsense. “Two degrees is not a magical limit — it’s clearly a political goal,” says Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK). “The world will not come to an end right away in the event of stronger warming, nor are we definitely saved if warming is not as significant. The reality, of course, is much more complicated.”

      Schellnhuber ought to know. He is the father of the two-degree target.

      “Yes, I plead guilty,” he says, smiling. The idea didn’t hurt his career. In fact, it made him Germany’s most influential climatologist. Schellnhuber, a theoretical physicist, became Chancellor Angela Merkel’s chief scientific adviser — a position any researcher would envy.

      Rule of Thumb

      The story of the two-degree target began in the German Advisory Council on Global Change (WBGU). Administration politicians had asked the council for climate protection guidelines, and the scientists under Schellnhuber’s leadership came up with a strikingly simple idea. “We looked at the history of the climate since the rise of homo sapiens,” Schellnhuber recalls. “This showed us that average global temperatures in the last 130,000 years were no more than two degrees higher than before the beginning of the industrial revolution. To be on the safe side, we came up with a rule of thumb stating that it would be better not to depart from this field of experience in human evolution. Otherwise we would be treading on terra incognita.”

      As tempting as it sounds, on closer inspection this approach proves to be nothing but a sleight of hand. That’s because humans are children of an ice age. For many thousands of years, they struggled to survive in a climate that was as least four degrees colder than it is today, and at times even more than eight degrees colder.

      This means that, on balance, mankind has already survived far more severe temperature fluctuations than two degrees. And the cold periods were always the worst periods. Besides, modern civilizations have far more technical means of adapting to climate change than earlier societies had.
      [ more ]

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        handjive

        Via notrickszone 2 May 2014:

        Spiegel On Antaractic Sea Ice:
        “Never Before Has There Been So Much Ice At This Time Of Year Since Measurements Began”!

        “No question the planet has warmed some since 1900 as it crawls out of a little ice age and back to a new Holocene optimum.
        Bojanowski writes:

        For a long time scientists thought the problem would simply pass. They expected it was only a fleeting oddity.

        It turns out that the high level of Antarctic sea ice hasn’t been an oddity at all and continues to set new record highs.
        Now red-faced scientists are desperately searching for an explanation, even a temporary one,
        that will at least allow them to buy some time.”

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    pat

    ***it seems Molitor’s $83 TRILLION figure has inflated hugely since he helped with comments and/or input this OECD working paper in 2011!

    .pdf 70 pages: Sept 2011: OECD: OECD WORKING PAPERS ON FINANCE, INSURANCE AND PRIVATE PENSIONS, NO. 10
    THE ROLE OF PENSION FUNDS IN FINANCING GREEN GROWTH INITIATIVES
    By Raffaele Della Croce, Christopher Kaminker and Fiona Stewart
    OECD Working Papers on Finance, Insurance and Private Pensions provide timely analysis and background on industry developments, structural issues, and public policy in the financial sector, including insurance and private pensions…

    The authors would like to thank Simon Upton, Helen Mountford, Jan Corfee-Morlot, MICHAEL MOLITOR, Marie-Christine Tremblay, Celine Kauffman and all their OECD colleagues who provided valuable comments and input into the paper. Input and comments from the following experts was also most appreciated: BEN CALDECOTT (Head of European Policy, Climate Change Capital); Aled Jones (Global Sustainability Institute, Anglia Ruskin University); Sean Kidney (Climate Bonds Initiative); Frederic Ottesen, (Chief Investment Officer, Storebrand); Brian A. Rice (Investment Officer, California State Teachers’ Retirement System); Richard Robb (Professor in the Professional Practice of International Finance, Columbia University); Shally Venugopal (World Resources Institute); Simon Zadek (Senior Visiting Fellow, Global Green Growth Institute), Ingrid Holmes (E3G).

    ***With their USD 28 trillion in assets, pension funds – along with other institutional investors – potentially have an important role to play in financing such green growth initiatives …
    For example, a 17% increase in the type of investment needed to deliver low-carbon energy systems between now and 2050 would yield an estimated cumulative USD 112 trillion in fuel savings (IEA 2010a). …
    Additionally, the IEA (2010a) calculates that the decarbonisation of the power sector will require additional investments of USD 9.3 trillion from 2010 to 2050 and the UN (2011a) estimates global replacement costs of existing fossil fuel and nuclear power infrastructure at, at least, 15 trillion–20 trillion (between one quarter and one third of global income)…
    With USD 28 trillion in assets held by private pension funds in OECD countries, and annual contribution in-flows of around USD 850bn,7 pension funds could be key sources of capital…
    Asset owners representing more than USD 15 trillion have recently signalled their support for U.S. and international action on climate change publicly (although only a portion of the portfolios of these investors are allocated accordingly)…
    The market size for all green bond issuances to date is approximately USD 15.6 billion (with 2.3 billion issued by the World Bank alone), a drop in the ocean (0.017%) of the capital held in the global bond markets, with amounts outstanding increasing by 5% in 2010 to a record USD 95 trillion …
    http://www.oecd.org/pensions/private-pensions/49016671.pdf

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    pat

    at the Climate Bonds link in my first comment re Molitor, there are some other stories worth noting, e.g.

    18 Jan: UN Investor Summit on Climate Risk in NY: Clean Trillion report launched

    14 Jan: Climate Bond Standards Board welcomes launch by 13 international banks of new Green Bond Principles. Important step towards standards-based market, esp. for corp green bonds
    NEW YORK –­­­ The International Climate Bond Standards Board today welcomed the release yesterday of the Green Bond Principles by a consortium of international banks led by Citi, JP Morgan, Bank of America Merrill Lynch and Credit Agricole.

    Climate Bonds: Partners
    INCLUDES:
    European Climate Foundation: mobilization of needed investment in the EU
    Bank of America Merrill Lynch Foundation: climate bond standards
    National Australia Bank: climate bond standards
    HSBC Climate Change Centre of Excellence: bonds and climate change research
    Sainsbury Family Charitable Trusts: energy efficiency financing solutions
    http://www.climatebonds.net/about/partners/

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    redress

    O/t…..but Bom’s disease is infectious it seems

    German Weather Service Employs Manipulative Statistical Sleights Of Hand To Craft Warming From Cooling – See more at: http://notrickszone.com/#sthash.MQcSr2NC.dpuf

    The German Weather Service has a problem with the climate – See more at: http://notrickszone.com/#sthash.MQcSr2NC.dpuf

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    pat

    more on the trillion dollar man Molitor.

    he was an abc fave between 2006-2008, but nothing further that i can find. much telling info, incl (not excerpted) about how he met Roger Revelle at Scripps in 1981, & Revelle set him on the CAGW path!

    2006: ABC In Conversation: Michael Molitor – Presented by Robyn Williams
    TRANSCRIPT:
    Robyn Williams: The is In Conversation, I’m Robyn Williams and staying with the movies for a moment do you remember the film The Day After Tomorrow ? …
    Well the scientific adviser on the film was Dr Michael Molitor who also happens to be Chief Executive Officer of Climate Wedge Ltd based in London, but he lives in Sydney. So tell me, how did you come to be involved in The Day After?
    Michael Molitor: At the time I got a call from the screenwriter, Jeffrey Nachmanoff. I was actually running Price Waterhouse Coopers’ climate change services business in London and he called me and say you don’t know me but my room mate at Harvard took your course, your responding to climate change course, I’m a screenwriter in Los Angeles, I’ve been hired to write a screenplay on a film that involves climate change—global warning. So I called my college roommate and said who was that whacky guy that you took that course from cause you used to talk quite a lot about it? So he remembered you and put me in touch with you so that’s how it all started. I got a call out of the blue.
    Robyn Williams: Were you based in Harvard teaching or did you happen to visit?
    Michael Molitor: I was at Harvard for a three-year post-doctoral fellowship.
    Robyn Williams: In what field, science or money or what?
    Michael Molitor: I had some unusual position, I was part of this emerging global environment program and my task was to try to think about how to combine all the different relevant parts of Harvard University into a unified global environmental research and teaching program…
    Robyn Williams: OK, so you got the call and by this amazing coincidence, because your friend happen to mention your name, and you were called in to advise on the scientific aspects, or the political ones as well?
    Michael Molitor: Yes they said we’ve decided that the film should be based at least in part in robust science and we’d like you to help us manage the scientific process. Not just give advice but also help them interact with leading scientists in the field, environmental organisations, scientific organisations, in that process. And then they understood that I was also involved in the Kyoto negotiations and there was a scene in the film involving the negotiations in Delhi and I had been at those negotiations, so I also provided some advice about what those meetings are like and what actually takes place there…
    Robyn Williams: …But what do you think the impact was of that film in general, first of all with the public?
    Michael Molitor: …When we were out promoting the film I sat on several panels around the world with local scientists, local climate scientists, and the uniform view before the film was some concern on the part of scientists that the film shows such dramatic exaggerated effects, that people would say well this is so far beyond my control, I really don’t have to worry about it, it’s like an asteroid hitting the earth. And that was sort of the uniform view.
    The result of that was a series of surveys that were done, I think in about nine countries, one of which was done by the Tindall Centre in the UK, and the results of those surveys were published in Nature. And they overwhelmingly showed a huge uptake in terms of people’s interests and awareness of the issue. So at least, if you will, the result of the survey seems to suggest the film did quite a lot in raising awareness about this problem…
    Robyn Williams: And of course the great deniers all through the film, the politicians, that’s what’s going to come through, the political reaction—eventually the huge mea culpa at the end—deeply satisfying. I can’t imagine them for a second doing that in real life, can you?
    Michael Molitor: Yea it would be hard to imagine. Even if we saw a large-scale destabilisation event in the climate system, I couldn’t image a political leader saying I failed to take action and if I had taken action things might have been different.
    Robyn Williams: Quite extraordinary…
    Robyn Williams: I happen to know that a trillion dollars is the amount the world will soon spend on diet measures.
    Michael Molitor: Absolutely, there’s lots of other most embarrassing metrics like that. So I’ve realised that this is now capital markets’ problem because we need massive reductions and we need them soon, we can’t wait. So we need to find a compelling way of leveraging the most powerful force in this planet—capital markets. We need to find a way of allow investors to get sufficiently attractive returns so that we can pull that trillion dollars out of the market and apply it to rapidly accelerating low carbon, the penetration of low carbon technologies…
    Michael Molitor: …I’ll give you one example. Our organisation in London belongs to something called the Carbon Disclosure Project, this is 215 financial institutions who between them manage ***31 trillion dollars…
    These organisations are calling up every single company in the world and saying listen, we own a lot of your stock, in fact we own most of your stock, we think there’s a link between what you’re doing about your greenhouse gas emissions and your financial performance. If you do not improve your carbon performance, your greenhouse performance, it’s going to affect your financial performance and it’s going to affect your share price.
    Robyn Williams: And would they enforce that warning?
    Michael Molitor: Well that’s a great question, how do you enforce the warning. The way you enforce the warning is you see a large pension fund in California announcing in the next 90 days that it’s offloaded all of its shares in a large company because they failed to improve their carbon performance. And they felt that that company is under-performing. Remember these large institutional investors, huge pension funds, super funds here, superannuation funds here in Australia, who have billions of dollars under management, they have large share portfolios and every day they’re attempting to asses which companies are performing, which are underperforming…
    Robyn Williams: Of course we had the Group of Six here last month in Australia including Westpac and Swiss Re and four others who did something similar standing out. Were you aware of that?
    Michael Molitor: Yes, yes I was.
    Robyn Williams: Were you part of that?
    Michael Molitor: No, no I wasn’t directly part of that although I did attend the first meeting, organisational meeting I think a little over a year ago when IAG and others were thinking about how to organise this…
    http://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/inconversation/michael-molitor/3335046

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    • #
      PeterK

      I wonder, when these green schemes finally collapse, and if the pension fund managers were stupid enough to divest from oil, gas and coal companies and then to reinvest into the green gravy train, what will happen around the world when millions of pensioners are no longer funded because of the large investments in the green machine have reduced these pension funds to just a portion of what they originally had. Could this then be the start of massive retaliation on the individuals and organizations who promoted this green junk? Just wondering.

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  • #
    realist

    The deliberate misinformation (lies, damn lies and statistics!), with a push to pay “carbon” taxes, higher than necessary energy costs, waste on Green Utopia schemes, attack on politically incorrect viewpoints (challenging climate religious orthodoxy), and a multiplicity of other changes that will NEVER have ANY impact on changing “global” averaged temperature – do Utopian Socialists and their useful idiots (particularly in the media) really believe they (alone) have the knowledge, wisdom and ability to control the “global” thermostat”? – I think not, it’s simply part of a much larger Socialist agenda for infusing corporatist global government into all nation states. Big boys with big toys and ultra big egos who know better than anyone else how to “run the whole show”.

    The fundamental issue is this: Global warming cv climate change is used as a pretext for curtailing human freedom. It’s actually NOT about the science (that sceptics mostly and quite rightfully argue about), it’s actually ALL about politics of placing restrictions on human freedom. Climate politics is a sister to Agenda 21 and other UN agenda. It’s simply a poorly veiled attempt to wind back the gains of an otherwise slow and at times literally tortuous advancement in development of humane societies (note humane, meaning a normality of the humane virtues we applaud and foster in a civil society, where personal liberty and freedom is abundant, without overt restrictions from the State).

    So while we “play tennis” with the science vs politics, everyone needs to be sure to keep our eyes on the colour of the ball, because it’s the colour Red of Restriction, not the relative opaque of Freedom that many take far too much for granted.

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    pat

    trillion dollar Mike is a laugh a minute:

    2007: ABC World Today: Leaders deliberate draft declaration at climate summit (Bali)
    SARAH CLARKE: There are numerous business leaders who are actually here keeping a close eye on this particular meeting. I spoke to a fellow called Michael Molitor who’s a scientist who actually helped craft the Kyoto Protocol and actually represented the Pacific Islands. And he set up one of the world’s first carbon hedge funds. He’s actually here at the conference as part of the Price Waterhouse Coopers team, and I spoke to him about Australia’s capability of agreeing to short term targets, and this is what he had to say…
    SARAH CLARKE: And would Australia be at a loss if we didn’t embrace such targets?
    MICHAEL MOLITOR: Well, if we view this entire process as a cost, then you can argue that we’re going to be disadvantaged because we’re carbon intensive. If you view it as an opportunity and say the entire world could use our technology, if we create a high carbon price in Australia and we force people, we create a huge incentive for people to invest in these technologies and apply these technologies, there’s going to be a tremendous export opportunity here, I would argue at least as big, if not bigger than the current resources boom.
    SARAH CLARKE: So what could that market then be worth, potentially, a round figure, to Australia?
    MICHAEL MOLITOR: Oh I mean it’s, I mean let your imagination go. I mean if we became a carbon energy super power, which is within, certainly within our power – we have ***$1.2 trillion in superannuation funds; that’s going to double in the next decade. We have great technology. A lot of it of course is being exported and moving away, maybe we could bring that back. You know we’ve got universities.
    We have all, we have the whole team in place. If policy was crafted in a way that we could focus those resources, we become the Kuwait of the carbon energy world.
    http://www.abc.net.au/worldtoday/content/2007/s2114206.htm

    2006: ABC Background Briefing: The rise of the carbon traders
    Wendy Carlisle: Al Gore’s film has been criticised for scaring the pants off people without providing any solutions. The truth is that the scale of the climate change problem facing the world is enormous…
    It sounds depressing. That is, until you meet Michael Molitor.
    He’s set up the world’s first carbon hedge fund out of his Sydney base which he’s set up in collaboration with the London based Cheyne Capital Management…
    Michael Molitor: HSBC for example, a large financial institution, doesn’t have any legal requirements to reduce its emissions, it’s not regulated, and it probably never will be regulated as a bank. But it’s made a decision to reduce its emissions, so it’s actually buying carbon in the market and offsetting its emissions. And then companies like BP and British Airways are beginning to sell to consumers carbon offset products and services…
    Wendy Carlisle: Michael Molitor says the cost of climate change will be in the trillions. And one of his solutions is a gigantic hedge fund, and he’s selling shares in it right now…
    Wendy Carlisle: And while Michael Molitor won’t reveal the value of his fund, or how much carbon it holds, he did give Background Briefing a sense of what the hedge fund is into.
    Michael Molitor: I’ll give you one example: a wind farm in a developing country. A large European company went down and built a wind farm in a large key developing country. They were able to do so because they were given a tax break by the local government. We came in and looked at the numbers and realised that the value of the carbon they were reducing, that wind farm, was about six times the value of electricity. So we walked in and said ‘Listen, what we’d like you to do is think about greatly expanding the size of this wind farm, and we’ll provide financing in advance. In other words, we will guarantee that every ton of carbon that you reduce, we’ll give you a commitment to purchase in advance.’ The result of that is that wind farm is now four times larger than it would have been in the absence of our investment…
    Wendy Carlisle: And then he made a big prediction. Michael Molitor says that some time soon, a big global company is going to get a rude shock which will focus international attention on carbon risk.
    Michael Molitor: I suspect that within the next three to six months you are going to read from Bloomberg or from Reuter’s an announcement that a very large pension fund in the United States has made an announcement that it has sold stock in a company because that company has poor carbon performance.
    Wendy Carlisle: That’s a big call.
    Michael Molitor: We’re not far from that at all…
    http://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/backgroundbriefing/the-rise-of-the-carbon-traders/3340350#transcript

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      James Bradley

      Pat, I read this through a couple of times and this is a huge scam – probably works like this:

      1. The large hedge fund company with subsidiaries in the green technology industry comes into resource rich undeveloped countries and offers to finance loans for wind turbines/green energy.

      2. Generous incentives are offered to the decision makers of those to legislate and approve borrowing from the large company for the green energy schemes.

      3. The company, now with the respective government’s approvals, then organises its own subsidiaries to to design, manufacture, supply and install the green energy/wind turbines.

      4. No money actually changes hands because the money for the above is actually cycled on the books between subsidiaries and parent, but once the green technology infrastructure is installed then the interest and principle payments from the developing country pours into the large company coffers.

      5. Eventually the resource rich developing country can’t afford inefficient technology that supplies energy too expensive for its population to purchase and maintain and the resource rich undeveloped country goes into default.

      6. Large company then comes in and ceases assets and resources to pay for a loan that in effect was never made, and the only real cost is the bribes to officials.

      Sadly this is not a movie script, it’s all been done before.

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      Graeme No.3

      HA! Loved that bit about HSBC !! I hope all greenies follow their lead and invest as they do. (For those who don’t follow the markets HSBC aren’t going to win the award for top financial decision making between now and when they get liquidated.

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    Mortis

    We did not adjust for actual adaptation responses because the low public awareness of the health hazards
    of high ambient temperature suggests that there would have been limited autonomous adaptation
    , and because data were not available to adjust for any actual adaptation responses.”

    Did they just call us too ignorant to adjust to a slight rise in temp? Here in eastern Virginia in spring and autumn we regularly have 30f-40f temp changes in a 24 hour period (and I mean at the same time of day, not comparing night temps to daytime temps) – years ago when I ran the flight line at an airport Virginia set a record for number of continuous days over 90f – almost six weeks, with many days over 100f and humidity never under 88%, but the beach seems more packed than ever, so I guess we accidentally adapted – blind squirrel and all…

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    pat

    prepare for an invasion, says this unattributed ABC piece spruiking another 350 stunt:

    2 May: ABC: Pacific warriors plan Australia invasion to highlight effects of climate change
    Pacific Islanders from 16 countries and territories are planning a major sea voyage to Australia later this year as part of a campaign to highlight the effects of climate change.
    The Pacific Climate Warriors will set sail in September and are expected to arrive in Sydney Harbour in October.
    Their coordinator, Koreti Tiumalu, has told Pacific Beat the Warriors want to shame Australia’s fossil fuel industry…
    Ms Tiumalu says the group will be targeting the coal industry, sending what she calls a respectful but clear message that the Pacific needs the Australian fossil fuel industry to rethink its plans for expanding coal exports.
    She says when they arrive they will seek meetings with coal industry representatives and Australian politicians…
    Koreti Tiumalu says the group is hoping to make a “spectacular entrance”…
    ***The organisation behind the Pacific Climate Warriors’ trip, 350 Pacific, has put out a call for donations of seaworthy boats to transport the group, and their traditional canoes, across the Pacific.
    Ms Tiumalu says fundraising campaigns are underway but any donations would be welcome.
    She says the group hopes to see many Australians turn out to see them arrive, especially those from Pacific Island communities living in Australia.
    The voyage to Australia is part of the wider ‘Stand Up for the Pacific’ campaign, with action days being held around the region.
    Countries that are part of the campaign include: Papua New Guinea, Samoa, American Samoa, Tonga, Solomon Islands, Vanuatu, Tokelau, Niue, Cook Islands, Federated Sates of Micronesia, Marshall Islands, Palau, Tuvalu, Nauru, Kiribati and Fiji.
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-05-02/an-pacific-warriors-redo/5425970

    ***”at least 20″?

    350.org Pacific
    We have one month to find sailing boats!
    We have until May 31st to confirm sailing boats for a voyage that will take place between September and October this year. Can you help us?…
    We are looking to transport ***at least 20 people on sailing boats from islands in Melanesia, Micronesia and Polynesia to Sydney…
    The situation is clear: it’s either the fossil fuel industry that has to back down, or the Pacific Islands. We’re calling up the warriors of the Pacific to show that the Pacific Islands will not back down. The fossil fuel industry must keep 80% of its proven reserves in the ground to stop the globe warming more than 2 degrees…
    http://world.350.org/pacific/

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      scaper...

      Warriors??? More like worriers over nothing.

      Getting tired of the pissants of the world trying to dictate to us. The bottom line is Australia is a CO2 sink and we don’t need to curtail our CO2 output at all.

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      Mark D.

      Good thing you all have more than rocks to repel them right?

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      Roy Hogue

      Is it legitimate to hope their “traditional canoes” are lost at sea? No? Well I didn’t think so but I couldn’t resist asking.

      Their trip should be called, Gullible’s Travels, though. Fitting title don’t you think?

      Do turn out en masse to laugh at their arrival in Sydney Harbor. ;-)

      Unfortunately this kind of nonsense gets a lot of press and can have a lot of damaging influence on government and the Australian people. The cause of basic scientific honesty isn’t served by this no matter what happens.

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        Roy Hogue

        And then there’s the question, who is behind this? It smells like a lot more than the Pacific Islanders getting excited enough to make a long ocean voyage in small boats.

        These same Pacific Islanders would never notice anything happening if someone had not come to them and said, “You’re in mortal danger from global warming and the sea will rise up and engulf you.” :-(

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          Graeme No.3

          Roy Hogue:

          Hope springs eternal. The various islands have been after money since 1990? To offset the rising ocean caused by Global Warming caused by …etc.

          Tuvalu was first off the rank, so the Australian government placed an accurate tidal gauge there. After 2 years the figures showed that the ocean level was dropping!

          It is a waste of time them coming; had they arrived during the last Government they might have got enough money to sink their boats, but this one won’t give them anything but small change

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            Roy Hogue

            The various islands have been after money since 1990? To offset the rising ocean caused by Global Warming caused by …etc.

            I remember reading something about this a couple of years ago. I wonder how money will offset rising sea level. Do they expect to bribe the Pacific Ocean?

            I think they would be relocated at our expense if there was a real problem (legitimate up to this point) and then simply line their pockets with “compensation” money to the tune of as much as they could squeeze out of the rest of the world.

            Everyone wants to be a victim. Look how much sympathy and preferential treatment you can get, not to mention $$$$. :-(

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    Reinder van Til

    I feel the most comfortable when temperatures in my region of the world are 10°C above normal for the time of the year! That is why I enjoy going to Greece in the summer.

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    Bog Cog

    Excuse my ignorance, but surely with room temperature roughly at 22C there should be a higher mortality for those that spend the majority of their time inside in a cool climate, such as Sweden, and a lower mortality in a warm climate, such as Australia.

    Please someone, enlighten me?

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    • #
      the Griss

      Let’s not also forget that the CO2 level in a room with people in it is significantly HIGHER than any level ever likely in the atmosphere even in the quite distant furture.

      Level in a moderately ventilated room can easily reach 1000ppm,

      and poorly ventilated even up to 2000ppm (plus non-removal of other body odours etc…. if you know what I mean.)

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        Bog Cog

        Griss,
        So you are saying if I spend time inside with flatulent, heavy-breathing people who talk a lot a of hot air my life is in danger. OK, time to get off the computer and go outside in the cold and do some farming.

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          the Griss

          A good ventilation system will move around 20-30 cfm per person… no problem.

          But you can imagine what can happen in a badly ventilated room with a garlic and bean buffet ! :-)

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        Roy Hogue

        Absolutely true, Griss.

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    RMR

    I remember hearing a medical researcher being interviewed on radio a few years ago. He was asked if his breakthrough would reduce the mortality rate. His reply “No, it still runs at close to 1 per person”. Priceless

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    As a Stockholmer myself, I can assure you that COLD weather is a much bigger problem than hot weather. Should we get “global warming”, it’d be welcome. but it seems climate has been getting colder. 4 out of the 5 latest winters have been much colder than normal and sun activity doesn’t look promising.
    Another stupid thing in local debate is the assumption that Stockholm would be “flooded”. The city accually RISES 4 mm/year (bounce-back from the ice age) but sea levels rise a tiny 2 mm/year. When the rise is 2x the very tiny sea level rise, flooding is out of the question (except normal weather and snow-melt variability, which we can’t discount).
    Please give us hotter Stockholm weather!

    –Ahrvid

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