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Akademik Shokalskiy: were those careless risks in dangerous but foreseeable conditions?

It is good news that the climate scientists, PhD’s, children, tourists and media are finally safe on board the Aurora Australia (though I note the webcam this morning still shows that boat surrounded by sea ice). Spare a thought for the sailors still on board the Shokalskiy.

Shub Niggurath writes to me today to explain that the ill-fated ship headed back to an area heavy with ice, knowing a storm was approaching. The ships captain had wanted to get away sooner, but was delayed because the expedition team was late returning due to a mechanical mishap. The details of that delay are below. Further down I note a New Zealand writer argues they were taking “undue risk” because sea ice data and wind data were available that “shows the ice didn’t come out of nowhere – nor from a sudden chill.”

Pierre Gosslin asks on his site why the organizers used a cheap “ice strengthened” boat that was not able to break ice, yet sold berths to inexperienced tourists, and ventured into major sea ice zones.

Looks like the Antarctic team was unlucky to get nice weather with less wind. I marvel that the Commonwealth Bay and Cape Denison area are known as the “windiest place on Earth” because of the Katabatic wind (which would normally help blow the sea ice away).

“…the true character of Commonwealth Bay was soon to reveal itself with katabatic winds, that drain dense cold air from the polar plateau inland behind Commonwealth Bay, which are the most ferocious and persistent winds on the planet. Cecil Madigan, the AAE meteorologist, recorded a mean wind-speed of over 71 kilometres per hour over nearly two years of recording. Cape Denison is now acknowledged as the windiest place on Earth.” [Australian Govt pdf]

– Jo

 

 

——————————————————————————————————

Guest post by Shub Niggurath

Akademik Shokalskiy: the fateful moment

“The smallest mistakes can cascade into a disaster” 
— Chris Turney

Akademik Shokalskiy and its passengers

It has been more than a  week since the Akademik Shokalskiy got stuck in Antarctic sea ice. Its passengers have now been removed. Events are embedded safely enough in the past. Fortunately, beyond the monopoly of the flowery-but-unilluminating Alok Jha, the disinformation-obsessed BBC, and the forced gaiety of the eco-tourists, independent voices are available. One of them is Janet Rice, an Australian Green party Senate candidate.

Akademik Shokalskiy and its passengers

In any failure, cascades and systemic problems are likely to be present. Uncomfortable but obvious questions are on everyone’s minds: Anthony Watts and Andrew Bolt have put them out.

On the other hand, the official narrative is as follows: The Shokalskiy arrived at Commonwealth bay, Antarctica. They were two miles from open sea. ‘Suddenly’, a blizzard arose and thick ice packed around the ship. The vessel was trapped.

Consider how improbable the sequence sounds. Weather forecasts are easily available. A ship venturing to the Antarctic would have had access to the best possible forecasts. The captain would have known well in advance of approaching storms and high winds. The expeditioners proclaim how aware they were things could change on a dime. Which means, there must have been some limiting factor preventing action.

[1] On the 19th and 20th, two teams made round trips to Mawson’s huts in Cape Denison. The weather was good—in the words of Turney, “glorious sunshine” and winds “all spent”. The second party arrived back at the ship by morning on the 21st, at 5:30 AM. The groups used Argo all-terrain-vehicles (ATVs)

[2] Starting Saturday the 21st, the ship pushed off from the ‘fast ice’ and traveled away from the coast. On Sunday the 22nd the passengers were aware a blizzard was forecast. Wrote Rice at around 8PM:

“Ah it must be because the days are now getting shorter that the weather has changed! There’s a blizzard on the way apparently!”

[3] On Monday the 23rd, the fateful day, the Akademik Shokalskiy sailed back toward the coast. The goal was to take people to Hodgeman islets, 8 km from the edge of fast ice, to study penguins and seals. Recall the circumstances under which this was being done: a storm was approaching and the ship was moving into thick, fast ice it well knew had built up substantially in the area.

Artwork adapted from map available on the Guardian website

For the moment however the weather was good. According to Rice, although winds were already up and snowing there was ‘blue sky and sunshine for some periods’. She wrote:

“We were out in similar conditions this afternoon. Somewhat brighter – in fact there was blue sky and sunshine for some periods. The weather has been better than the forecast blizzard, so that was good.”

This was the window they were straddling, the cusp, before which the ship was moving and free and after which it found itself jammed in thick ice.

Events on the ground

The Hodgeman trip was made with zodiacs (an inflatable boat) and Argos. Exact details are not known, but the Argos were towed ashore by the zodiacs in the final stretch. Two Argos made it dry and onto the rocks but the third one dipped underwater. As Rice reports (archived here):

“The first drama of the day was the sinking – or almost! – of one of the Argos. The Argos are designed to be amphibious – just. They were launched today off the ship – and two of the three made it safely being towed by a zodiac the 50 metres or so to shore. The third was towed too fast it seems – and water came over the bonnet / bow, flooding both the engine and the vehicle itself.

Even earlier, Rice had encountered vehicular troubles with the Argo. Argo manufacturer ODG claims their vehicles are fully amphibious. It is not clear how the engine took in water when not running, but it stopped working.

Sadly Argo engines don’t take too kindly to being submerged… the ships engineers are still working on it and not very optimistic about its prospects

The unexpected loss of operation of one of the vehicles slowed down the team. Not only were they stuck towing back the non-functioning vehicle, people had to be ferried in the remaining ones. Meanwhile, the storm closed in. As Kerry-Jayne Wilson, a penguin biologist running the Blue Penguin Trust put it, they ‘set out in blowing snow and near gale winds; it got worse’. The captain was definitely concerned. In the words of Rice:

Because of the Argo mishap we got off late, and had one less vehicle to ferry people to and fro. I’m told the Captain was becoming rather definite late in the afternoon that we needed to get everyone back on board ASAP because of the coming weather and the ice closing in.

There can be little question the misadventure cost the expedition dearly. The ship was in a position where getting away was possible but held up for the exploring party to get back aboard:

I’m sure the Captain would have been much happier if we had got away a few hours earlier. Maybe we would have made it through the worst before it consolidated as much as it has with the very cold south- easterly winds blowing the ice away from the coast, around and behind us as well as ahead.

By the evening of Monday the ship was trapped though perhaps not realizing it. Rice saw from her porthole the ship was making ’very slow progress … oscillat[ing] between hardly moving to suddenly being jolted sideways with a crunch’. At 9 AM morning the next day, they had moved ‘less than a kilometre over night, and [were] now stationary in a sea of ice’.

The ship is still stuck in the same place.

Epilogue

There can be little doubt the Akademik Shokalskiy knew there was extensive, thick, multi-year ice in Commonwealth Bay. Turney knew southerly winds were prevalent and would likely drive pack ice against their vessel. Yet, by committing to the Hodgeson islands in the narrow window, the team put significant pressures on their time. The all-terrain vehicle mishap became the tipping point in the debacle.

Notes:

[1] Notrickszone independently carried the story.

——————————————————————————-

Was the sea-ice movement foreseeable?

The SpiritofMawson team had tools that Douglass Mawson could only have dreamed of. But perhaps that is part of the problem. Perhaps knowing that satellites give us unprecedented data and fossil fuel powered flying machinery is at our beck and call gives us a sense of security that lulls leaders into careless mistakes?

DataSciNZ points out that sea-ice data was available showing that sea ice was much higher than in recent years, and wind data was also available . DataSciNz ask: “Were the organisers of the AAE wholly unprepared, or at least practising risk management an order of magnitude more sloppy than we’ve come to expect from activities planned and funded through major Antarctic research nations?” They conclude “First, there is data available that seems (from an armchair observer’s perspective) to suggest the AAE was taking an undue risk, with unfavourable weather rapidly advancing on them when they entered unusually extensive sea ice.”

 It’s easy to predict things in hindsight, but those who justify the $1.5m taxpayer funded expense ought to explain whether Prof Chris Turney had this sea ice and wind data, and if so, why the movement of the ice caught them by surprise.
The Sea-ice data:

“The short animation I’ve prepared from satellite data (a new microwave instrument) available via Germany shows that expedition’s ship was taking a remarkable risk by attempting to penetrate an unusually large extent of sea ice in the region where they accessed the Antarctic coast at the location shown by the arrow.”

I note each pixel is 3.1km2. So resolution is less than ideal for predicting individual boat trips, nonetheless, surely an essential tool. Did the expedition have this data?
DataSciNZ points to the excellent new NullSchool wind data tool (which I myself saw for the first time just before Christmas, check it out!).

A good spell of weather was just ending when they entered the pack ice (and reached the coast at the green dot) on December 21.

“Second, not enough people are aware of this data. I’d recently become aware of the wind field tool, but finding near real-time sea ice data in a visual format is challenging. Put together, they become useful in describing the situation the AAE faced. And it also shows the ice didn’t come out of nowhere – nor from a sudden chill. Having the extent of sea ice as a map graphic makes a big difference. Yet, like a great deal of scientific data, sea ice extent is most readily available only as raw data. I’d like to laud and thank the German scientists for making it available! And also the Cameron Beccario (@cambecc) who appears to be responsible for the amazing wind field visualisation, which has transformed the long available NCEP data into something much more accessible.”
 – DataSciNZ

From me, a few more quotes about just how horribly windy Commonwealth Bay is:

From a 1956 paper by FK Ball:

“On the Beaufort scale 43 m. is a gale so that the average winds spead at Cape Denison is a gale. The  highest monthly mean was 55.6 m.p.h. for July, 1913 and the highest daily mean was 80.6 m.p.h. for  August, 1913…”

From MADIGAN (1929)”   ““The wind was the most remarkable feature of the  meteorology or indeed  of the locality.  It is the outstanding characteristic of Adelie Land. Commonwealth Bay is  probably the windiest place on earth and certainly appears to be so as far as records up to the present  indicate. For nine months of the year an almost continuous blizzard rages, and for weeks on end one  can only crawl about outside the shelter of the hut unable to see an arm’s length owing to the blinding snow drift. . .””

The wind is well known to start and stop suddenly:

“The principle features of the katabatic wind in the neighbourhood of Commonwealth Bay, Antarctica, are described with particular emphasis on the sudden onsets and cessations of the wind.” “The end and particularly the onset of the strong wind is frequently very sudden, with the wind rising  from almost calm to gale strength in a few minutes.”

– Jo

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175 comments to Akademik Shokalskiy: were those careless risks in dangerous but foreseeable conditions?

  • #
    Hasbeen

    The English does not appear to be a strong suit in our Global warmists.

    They are referring to the fools riding around in the Argos as an “exploring party. I would reckon they are about a hundred years too late to be considered explorers. Joy riders would be much closer to a true description of these idiots.


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  • #
    Yonniestone

    Not the best of places to push your luck or play amateur hour, the crew must be celebrating the fools departure.


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  • #
    John Of Cloverdale WA

    “the crew must be celebrating the fools departure”…Yonniestone.
    Maybe, if they have any vodka left.


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    • #
      Yonniestone

      I think the boys might use this old Russian toast,
      Анна Ахматова
      Последний Тост

      Я пью за разоренный дом,
      За злую жизнь мою,
      За одиночество вдвоем,
      И за тебя я пью,—
      За ложь меня предавших губ,
      За мертвый холод глаз,
      За то, что мир жесток и груб,
      За то, что Бог не спас.

      (27 июня 1934, Шереметьевский Дом)

      Translation:
      The Last Toast (Translated by A. S. Kline)

      I drink to our ruined house,
      to all of life’s evils too,
      to our mutual loneliness,
      and I, I drink to you –
      to eyes, dead and cold,
      to lips, lying and treacherous,
      to the age, coarse, and cruel,
      to the fact no god has saved us.


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  • #
    Popeye

    Sorry to be a bit OT.

    Just happened to spy the channel 9 news 20 minutes ago.

    “It’s official – 2013 has been the hottest year EVER”.

    Then they cross to some idiot from BOM, show lots of videos about storms and bushfires then cross to labor and Greens MPs who both say this PROVES that bad bad CO2 is the culprit and we should stop the world.

    Last shots are of steam coming out of power station chimneys.

    These BS artists have NO shame!!.

    Lucky my screen survived but couldn’t tolerate losing my Coopers green AND a 55″ Panasonic slimline :-)

    Cheers,


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    • #
      Lawrie Ayres

      Ah Popeye. You too? They haven’t seen the snow in North America then. That tends to balance things up. I checked Christie and his UAH data but December isn’t in yet. From what I do see 2013 will not be anywhere near the hottest year GLOBALLY. The BoM won’t mention the GLOBAL temp if it can hype the Australian temps. The MSM seems happy to keep supporting the CC crap. All the more for them to cringe over when the facts become too obvious.


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    • #
      Sean McHugh

      I saw the same on 7. Julie Bishop defended the Coalition by saying the direct action would achieve the CO2 reduction. She didn’t say there has been no global temperature increase and she didn’t say that the radars disagree that it Australia’s hottest year. In other words, she reinforced the warmists’ position when she didn’t have to (unless she was edited). Given she is possibly the toughest the Coalition has, what hope is there ferrrchrisssake? Is is there no way we shake these pollies and wake them up? It’s so depressing.


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      • #
        MemoryVault

        Given she is possibly the toughest the Coalition has, what hope is there ferrrchrisssake?

        None.

        Is is there no way we shake these pollies and wake them up?

        No.


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        • #
          MemoryVault

          PS

          Bet she didn’t even mention the Antarctic fiasco either.


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        • #
          Raven

          MV it would seem you we’re right from the very start , change of goverment and more disappointment , one begins to despare .
          A shipment of spines needs to be delivered to the liberals post hast , gutless cowards the goddamn lot of them , words here cannot do justice for the contempt I now hold for these feckless pieces of dung .
          I’ll wager $100 here and now that Abbott doesn’t have the balls to go to a DD election under any circumstances , and as for Greg hunt why don’t you and Turdbull piss off to the Labour Party where you belong you duplicitous sacks of garbage !!!!!!!!

          Any takers on that $ 100 ? Don’t be shy now .


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    • #
      bullocky

      Global temperatures are flat, but there is a ‘hot spot’ in Australia.

      Therefore, there could be a ‘cold spot’ somewhere to counter-balance it.

      Chris Turney and his mates could author a paper on this!


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      • #
        Annie

        The ‘hot spot’ isn’t in this part of Australia (country Victoria) for sure. I’m wearing a fleece gilet and a fleece jacket tonight and I’m none too warm. We’ve lit the wood stove on quite a few evenings also. I’ve heard there is a bit of warmth around Brisbane at last but down south it is definitely cooler than I’ve remembered it for a long time.


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    • #
      aussiebear

      I saw that Ch 9 news article.

      They said it was 0.17 degree/C hotter than anything before it! …I was on the ground laughing.

      Effectively, the only news you need from the Australian Mainstream Media is:
      => Sports scores and highlights.
      => Finance numbers.
      => If its hot/cold/raining the following day. (Simply to determine what I need to wear and if I need to carry an umbrella.)

      …Everything else is just garbage that can be ignored.


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      • #
        PeterK

        Taking 200o readings around the globe and dividing by 2000 = – 0.17 degrees warmer than last year or whatever is the same as taking 10000 readings of 0 and dividing by 10000 – still equals 0.


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        • #
          bobl

          Interesting point Peter

          278.17/278 is 0.0006 or 0.06% warmer than the previous record, calculated of course by the BOMs new undisclosed formula, using it’s demonstrably flawed dataset (where the mins, still exceed the max on many days) in a year where it snowed in summer. Yep, I’m gonna believe that one….


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      • #
        Popeye

        aussieb,

        “If its hot/cold/raining the following day.”

        Wouldn’t trust them with that either mate – they’ve got that wrong PLENTY of times before.

        My motto – always carry an umbrella, overcoat, pair of winter gloves, pair of thongs, pair of shorts, sun hat (you know what I mean).

        Cheers,


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      • #
        Backslider

        They said it was 0.17 degree/C hotter than anything before it!

        Or in other words, there was nothing statistically significant in our temperature readings…..


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    • #
      Speedy

      Surely not the Coopers Green!?


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    • #
      Owen Morgan

      We have the same problem here in the UK. On Christmas Day, the beebyanka saw fit to broadcast a half-hour programme about “wild weather”. They didn’t actively play the “man-made” thing, but that was always the subtext. The IPCC’s provisional statements were announced as gospel, naturally (if only Donna Laframboise saw that, you could power a decent-sized planet from her entirely legitimate reaction, I suspect). My “favourite” bit was the part in which they worked out a way to blame humans for volcanic eruptions. Let’s see if I’ve got this right… We’re causing global warming, which is actually global cooling, so it makes water form ice-caps on the summits of volcanoes and the water melts (all that warming, presumably), seeps into the magma and results in an eruption. Despite the “fact” that this phenomenon is supposedly “global”, it’s a bit hard to pin-point such occurrences globally.

      I think Etna clocked up its twentieth recent eruption recently. Is that caused by an ice-cap? If you dig four inches into the ground anywhere near Etna’s summit, it’s definitely not freezing – you can light a piece of paper, just by touching it to the ground.


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  • #
    Winston

    What all this shows is that warmists are, to a man, all lying scum. They cannot acknowledge even the most trivial fault, they cannot acknowledge any uncertainty, they cannot acknowledge error bars, they omit any and everything that doesn’t conform completely to their narrative, or reaffirm their egocentric world view.

    It is quite forgivable to be in error honestly, but is quite another to know certain facts undermine your belief (e.g record cold weather across Nth America while only mentioning relative warmth in the adjusted weather in Oz), but then react to this by misdirection, semantic wordplay games or distorting emphasis to skew perception deliberately to hide a truth.

    These people, and their media lackeys, KNOW that they are climate scientists, they know they were expecting to emphasise a warming globe by showing diminishing Antarctic ice (when quite the opposite was found), yet they blatantly hide behind the anonymity of “passengers” or “tourists” or “adventurers” or some other euphemism to cover the embarrassment of their incompetence. They are beneath contempt.


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    • #
      DT

      Delusional lying scum


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    • #
      llew Jones

      Winston having a little time on my hands over the holiday break I scrolled through the comments sections on the Guardian and Age in response to several climate change related topics, including the ship that got stuck in the ice in Antarctic. I was struck by the senseless and moronic comments by most of those who were almost hysterical supporters of the alarmist, coming end of the world sect of climate science. Sort of who cares about the facts when the planet will soon be uninhabitable

      Lying scum is an apt classification for them also if they were reasonably intelligent however I’m not sure that intelligence comes into the equation. It seemed to me that most were not equipped to rationally assess the pros and cons of the alarmist doctrine so it may be more accurate to think of them as being blinded by religious attachment to a deeply flawed science or alternatively that they are suffering from an intellectual disability.

      Re your comments on the implications of there being much more ice than Turney, no doubt from his modeling, expected I concur. Lying scum is quite gentle. The other alarmist scientists, though they too may not be as intelligent as we generously assume, surely were working on the assumption of less Antarctic ice due to their belief in raging AGW. ( My guess is that the early release of the BOM data (still needs finalising) and the paper on 4C warming this century were part of the KO punch to coincide with the revelation of all that missing ice… a coup that backfired spectacularly).

      However when it comes to their followers on the sites I visited and some of those who come here I tend now to think more in terms of intellectual disability.


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      • #
        Mat

        Your guess is wrong. From part of their stated science case:

        We are going south to:

        1. Gain new insights into the circulation of the Southern Ocean and its impact on the global carbon cycle.
        2. Explore changes in ocean circulation caused by the growth of extensive fast ice and its impact on life in Commonwealth Bay…

        (my italics)

        Believe it or not, the earth system is non-linear and complicated. That’s why we should study it.


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        • #
          Winston

          Mat
          Nobody is saying we shouldn’t study it, quite the contrary.

          We should study it- BUT with an open mind (with a closed mind is a waste of time and resources), without predetermining the results, or altering the conclusions purely to conform to a preferred narrative, or omitting (and therefore lying by omission) any inconvenient data (like record Antarctic Sea Ice extent) that you don’t like because it shatters your preconceived ideological perception. That sort of confirmation bias mind set doesn’t promise to gain significant “scientific knowledge”, but rather it sends you instead careering down an intellectual one way street to a dead end.

          Believe it or not, the earth system is non-linear and complicated. That’s why we should study it.

          Perhaps those who study it should be properly prepared, less arrogant and reckless, and less inclined to put their collective egos above and beyond the safety of their comrades, not to mention the hapless innocent ship’s crew charged with trying to save them from themselves. It would also be pertinent to avail oneself of all the available data and risk assessments beforehand, and thereby not be so cavalier with taxpayers funds that they wilfully place themselves in danger knowing that the humble taxpayer can bail them out of trouble with an endless fountain of cash to mitigate against their propensity for glory seeking stupidity.


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        • #
          AndyG55

          Then WHY are all the TV stations trying to pass it off as a TOURIST ship?

          The HYPOCRACY and COVER-UP reeks like penguin poop !!!

          All to save the embarrassment of a pack of glorified self-aggrandising nonces !!!


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        • #
          Backslider

          From part of their stated science case

          Yes, just cherry pick one small portion. I can do that also. Tell me, how ridiculous is this:

          The effects of this marked shift in westerly winds are already being seen today, triggering warm and salty water to be drawn up from the deep ocean, melting large sections of the Antarctic ice sheet with unknown consequences for future sea level rise

          See anything at all wrong with that?


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          • #
            Heywood

            “See anything at all wrong with that?”

            I doubt it. The irony of the whole situation is lost on the average leftard eco-activist.

            What is it with the daily new troll? A coordinated attack perhaps?


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            • #
              Popeye

              Heywood

              “A coordinated attack perhaps?”

              I think so mate – although I’ve missed Brian Lothar today – he tried a couple of coordinated attacks over the last couple of days and failed miserably REALLY well.

              Cheers,


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              • #
                Heywood

                “although I’ve missed Brian Lothar today”

                Ahhh good ole’ Brian. I never thought we would find a more arrogant dip$shit troll on this site than Michael but there he is. I actually have a theory that he is one of Michael’s ‘mates’ as the argument, tone and language used is very similar ie Dismisses any argument as not credible and demands everyone answer his questions which we all know he wont accept unless it’s exactly what he wants to hear. Then again, it could be Michael himself. Perhaps the MODS can check the IP addresses and let us know.

                I do wonder why he is here. He claims there is only 50 or so of us on this site and he obviously thinks we hold the balance of power on all things climate in this country. The reality is that he is a just here to pick fights because his missus (or boyfriend) isn’t giving him any.

                [the IP address is different than Michael TR. I would add that the writing style is also different IMHO] ED


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              • #
                PhilJourdan

                @Heywood – IP addresses are as easy to spoof as names. Here you have one ip address (Mods can check it out).


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              • #
                philjourdan

                @Heywood – And here we have another.

                What is hard to fake is writing styles. Usually, over time, they will betray themselves that way. (Note: I did read the mods response to Heywood).


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              • #
                john robertson

                There is something reminiscent of the early days of Real Climate, about Brian H.


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              • #
                Heywood

                Thanks Ed. I thought that some of the tactics and terminology used were very similar bit I see what you mean by different writing styles. Both are just as arrogant and annoying.


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        • #
          Tim

          Mat; you missed one point:

          We are going south to:

          3. Achieve points 1 and 2, while partying on a stationary, ice – bound vessel.


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        • #

          We are going south to:

          1. Gain new insights into the circulation of the Southern Ocean and its impact on the global carbon cycle.

          Difficult to see how clowning around with zodiacs and argos advances that …

          2. Explore changes in ocean circulation caused by the growth of extensive fast ice and its impact on life in Commonwealth Bay…

          LOL. I reckon they covered that one adequately :-)

          Believe it or not, the earth system is non-linear and complicated. That’s why we should study it.

          Agreed, but it’s hardly a job for an infantile undisciplined rabble.


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          • #
            michael hart

            I was also curious about what measurements they were taking that would bs relevant to the carbon cycle. Perhaps we shall find out.

            On the other hand, going there to “gain new insights” doesn’t sound like much of a planned experiment to me. It sounds more like a poet going somewhere to find their muse.


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        • #
          Backslider

          crickets………


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      • #
        aussiebear

        What you have observed by real world examples is that Left-leaning folks are irrationally-emotional people.

        They cannot be reasoned with. And you shouldn’t try.

        Don’t try to debate with them because they aren’t going to be reasonable in anything they say. Ideologies and agendas matter more than anything to them.

        Just take away public support of their agendas by showing the public the true nature of these creatures.

        Let these creatures snarl and scream like crazed banshees. (It just shows modern Leftism is a mental disease. In Chinese culture, we refer to it as “fever in the brain”.)


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      • #
        John Brookes

        Senseless and moronic comments? Now where do I usually see those?

        But back to that ship (full of scientists!) stuck in the ice. People warned them that they needed to get out, but they ignored those alarmists…


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        • #
          Mark D.

          Senseless and moronic comments? Now where do I usually see those?

          I usually see them immediately under your picture and name.

          People warned them that they needed to get out, but they ignored those alarmists…

          More likely people warned them of the observed natural variation of weather at their landing site. Then they ignored empirical science.


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        • #

          If this were comparable to climate change warnings, there would have been no consequence to ignoring the alarmists until at least 2050.


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        • #
          Sean McHugh

          John, once again your comment would be more at home on twitter or facebook. It does a little inane (assumed smart) dance that avoids addressing any real issue.

          Now please answer this properly. What are your thoughts on the MSM coverup regarding the actual nature of the Antarctic expedition? Do you even concede there is a coverup happening? If so, why do you think it is happening?

          Let’s see how you go with that.


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          Backslider

          but they ignored those alarmists but the alarmists ignored them…

          There…. fixed it for ya!


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        Rod Stuart

        Andrew Bolt often focuses on the HATE bound up in the Left and the warmists in particular. I made the error of wandering onto one of their blogs yesterday. Someone asked “when will they realise the crisis when 2013 was the hottest year?”
        So I said “when will you realise that there were 2000 cold and snow records in the continental US last month, and that people are freezing in the UK because of high energy prices due to this AGW myth?”
        To which I got this lovely response:
        “You may be surprised to find out that my husband is usually a conservative voter. We respect each other whilst having very robust discussions. He has been following this one and just said to me “It’s time you got angry”. This is coming from the man who lives with me and who knows how much I HATE being lied to, so when he says that he knows what he is unleashing.

        You….restraining self….”people” are being paid to lie and your lies are putting the future of my children, my nieces and nephews, and their progeny, at grave risk. The weight of evidence from people far more credible than you shows we must go into immediate protection mode.

        Fuck with my kids and you fuck with me you tossers. I will follow the money trail and I will tell everyone I can about it. I will read the scientific papers that debunk your crap and I will pass them on. I will act on a personal, community, and media platform to address climate change and to urge others to do so as well.

        And I will expose every lie you tell.

        Blame my husband.”
        Very classy lady. Very astute.


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      Raven

      They are dangerous Winston , they threaten the security and future prosperity of my children , they threaten my way of life and my security as I get older , this will get very nasty before these tools can finally be brought down . It needs a Nuremberg type ending in my opinion .


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    Flat Earther

    I listened to Senator Penny Wong on the ABC today saying that the hotter than ever year (as determined by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology) proves that we really must do something about global warming. She did not then go on to then explain what the carbon tax was actually going to achieve in addressing the apparent warming problem, but clearly, in her view, Australian society needs to feel some pain as they are obviously guilty as charged of causing this undue heating of Oz.

    Meanwhile, in the USA, global warming has caused some parts of major cities to be shut down because of blizzard conditions. Then there is the problem of global warming clogging the Antarctic with ice and interfering with shipping movements. Not sure how you rationalise what, to some, would seem to be an inconsistency. But then, what right does a Flat Earther have to draw attention to the silly claims of others??


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      Mat

      Flat Earther, glad to see your name acknowledges your thinking. I just wandered over to USA’s temp records, which unfortunately won’t be updated at NASA or NOAA for a few days yet. But after the chart topping 2012 records, for continental USA, i’m interested too.

      The latest information release was for month of November, let’s take a look:
      http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/service/global/map-percentile-mntp/201311.gif

      Unfortunately you’ll have to expand your ‘evidence’ past single events like snow storms in US and Antarctic sea ice in areas ~2% of globe before you’ll debunk this beast. Keep trying though!

      PS, the globally-averaged temperature for November 2013

      was the highest for November since record keeping began in 1880. November 2013 also marks the 37th consecutive November and 345th consecutive month with a global temperature above the 20th century average.

      http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/


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        AndyG55

        And this is what HadCrud might look like with adjustments removed.

        http://i39.tinypic.com/1118rnl.png

        Unfortunately, we will never know the reality of the past because of the “work” of the likes of Hansen, Jones, Stott and the rest of their little party mal-adjusters.

        Nothing prior to about 1980 is even worth looking at..

        ……which makes their so called “20th century average” an TOTALLY MEANINGLESS metric for any sort of comparison.


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          Mat

          Care to share a source for your ‘tinypic’. Because, you know, usually an unaccountable excel graph is kind of… useless.


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            AndyG55

            do some research of your own.. I’m not your teacher. !


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            MemoryVault

            Errh,

            The heading of the graph clearly states what it purports to be and represent.
            If you believe it doesn’t, do your own and prove the posted one a lie.

            Why is it you trolls continually expect the rest of us to wipe your bums for you?


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              Mat

              Hahahaha, you actually have no idea how science, let alone normal discourse works, do you? Let me tell you a little secret … not all pictures you find on the internet can be trusted ;)


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                Annie

                What…like the pictues of steam coming out of cooling towers that Warmists have photshopped to look like evil-carbon-loaded smoke?!


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                Sean McHugh

                The Hockey Stick is a fine example.


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                Sean McHugh

                BTW Mat,

                Thank you for coming along. It’s so benign trying to vent it to the TV with its lying leftist (tautology) journalists.


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                Mortis

                haha, and yo have no idea how a debate works, since this is not “normal discourse”. You (and the other trolls loping about) are guilty of at least these logical fallacies:

                argumentum ad ignorantiam

                argumentum ad hominem

                petitio principii

                onus probandi

                cum hoc ergo propter hoc

                plurium interrogationum

                and now I am guilty of argumentum ad nauseam – but at least I am aware of that


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                Mortis

                and I forgot the biggest one of all

                argumentum ab auctoritate


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              AndyG55

              Why is it that 97% of the warmist troll have never done even the most basic research before they come here trying to sell their crap.

              Its getting very predictable and very boring..


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                Mortis

                because they aren’t smart or self-educating types – they just read from the script. That groupthink (another fallacy they dabble in) mentality of theirs is why all the warmist trolls sound alike. They aren’t smart enough to do independent research, just copy, paste and repeat the company line in a religious fervored mantra.

                Of course, that is one of the thing that makes them so fun – they get all plucky and then fade when facts and reason appear.


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            John Brookes

            No Mat, the picture is just so spectacular, and demonstrates the scam so well, that it would really ruin things to check out the source and see what that graph actually means and where it came from.


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        Radical Rodent

        The concept of a flat Earth is actually quite recent – Columbus knew that it was round, which is why he set off westwards to get to the Indies; that he underestimated its size is why the native Americans were called Indians, and we have the West Indies. I suspect the very idea of past generations believing in a flat Earth was by “scientists” of the day trying to demonstrate their superiority over scientists past. Now, where have we found such a similar mind-set?

        Studying a system as complex as the atmosphere will take generations before any truly useful conclusions can be drawn. That conclusions are being drawn now, and that these conclusions should be so alarming smacks to me of dramatizing the situation for personal gain. Politicians have quickly seen the advantage that they can gain from the hype, and many are now busily raking it in, making hay while the sun still shines.

        The sooner we have the sun setting on that scenario, the better for us all.


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          Greg Cavanagh

          I understand the Egyptions, sailing nations, and most everybody else also new the world was round.

          Isaiah new it and wrote it in a book:

          (Isaiah 40:22) There is One who is dwelling above the circle of the earth, the dwellers in which are as grasshoppers, the One who is stretching out the heavens just as a fine gauze, who spreads them out like a tent in which to dwell,


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        Andrew

        Funny how the RSS data out first showed a cold Nov with the temp anomaly plunging to just 0.22C (remember the +0.6-0.8 anomalies)? Then magically this cold was “adjusted” out.

        Meanwhile, during the Hottest December Evah ™, it’s snowing in Cairo, Istanbul (deep enough to close public transport – I know they regularly get FLUTTERS of snowflakes), and pretty much down to the Texas-Mexico border. Won’t stop them though.


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      • #

        Great comfort to those freezing in India and Vietnam. Those “global changes” mean nothing if you’re freezing. No one cares. Nor should they–average is probably the worst possible statistic to use here, even if you just look at anamolies from the average. In a system that goes fro -136 to +134F, average is completely meaningless.


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        James

        Mat, I’m not sure I understand your return volley – back in their day the scientific consensus said that the Earth was flat and this was eventually proved wrong, today the scientific consensus says that there is global warming is man made…


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          bobl

          By a bunch of “Scientists” that assume the earth is Flat and uniformly illuminated by 1/4 the normal insolation no less. Talk about flat earth society, all climate scientists are flat-earthers, it says so in their science.


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        James

        I also think that there is a much stronger correlation between the increasing cost of energy and global warming than there is between the concentration of CO2 and global warming – you only have to look at the data – Australia hottest year on record and the highest energy costs on record. Something must be done to bring the cost of energy down to prevent further global warming.


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        Sean McHugh

        Mat, like others of the CAGW faith, you seem to have a problem understanding plateaus and noise. The CAGW sceptics here are quite agreeable that at the moment we are in a high temperature plateau (as opposed to a trough). We have been in that plateau for about 15 years. On that plateau the will be noise and because it is a high plateau (overall), the highs of that noise almost necessarily be notably high compared to what preceded the plateau. That noise does NOT mean a rising temperature trend, instead of a plateau. Is that really too hard for warmists?


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          AndyG55

          And there is good reason for this plateau, and why we are almost certainly going to start heading down hill

          http://cc.oulu.fi/~usoskin/personal/lrsp-2008-3Color.pdf

          to quote from the last line of the conclusion

          “The modern level of solar activity (after the 1940s) is very high, corresponding to a grand
          maximum
          . Grand maxima are also rare and irregularly occurring events, though the exact
          rate of their occurrence is still a subject of debates.”


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            Mat

            I’m glad you’ve made a prediction. It’s much easier to snipe others explanations than to put your own neck out, so well done. I also would like to think I can change my mind depending on available evidence. AndyG55, I’ll remember your prediction that “we are almost certainly going to start heading down hill”. I’m open to any number of years, but let’s say if that in three years global temperatures start trending downwards, I’ll revise my thinking. I sincerely hope that in the reverse case you will be open to revising yours. Agreed?


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    Aussieute

    Popeye, I saw that as well.
    You can read more about it here

    I’ve just contacted them and provided info from here and Watts updating them with facts not bulltish


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  • #

    Finally located a copy of South by Ernest Shackelton, and I’d like to highlight something with a touch or irony.

    This lot just rescued yesterday will be welcomed home as heroes, no doubt about it.

    If Shackelton’s rescued crew arrived back at the same time, I seriously think they would all be arrested.

    After 18 Months, and intense drama, they all made Elephant Island, where Shackelton decided to navigate in an open boat to South Georgia and then cross the unexplored mountains covered in snow and ice at night to get to Stromness, the whaling station.

    Then there was a three month saga to finally rescue the stranded crew still on Elephant Island, after three failed attempts.

    Meanwhile back on the Island, the remaining crew, non of whom died spent 4 Months waiting in what can only been termed as arduous conditions.

    Once rescued, they retrurned, as heroes in 1916, only to go off to the War, where 5 of them were killed.

    However, had they returned today, they would probably be arrested, and if not, then shunned.

    You see, while they were at Elephant Island, they hunted, killed, cooked and ate ….. seals and penguins.

    How times change.

    Tony.

    Source


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    DT

    I emailed the BBC and reminded them that global warming stalled in 1998, and that Australia is a sunburnt country, and this link: http://www.dorotheamackellar.com.au/archive/mycountry.htm


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    PeterS

    With all the huffing and puffing by the global warmists, everyone has forgotten the elephant in the room. OK, let’s assume that they are right. What do we do about it? A tax or ETS (or whatever) imposed on a handful of countries (if that) will do absolutely nothing for the climate. So what else can we do given countries like China, Russia and the US will not reduce their emissions by any significant degree? Of course the answer is nothing. So that leaves the global warmists, even if they are correct, still looking like fools. Actually, if the warmists really were serious they would be going to countries like Russia and CHina and make their complaints known there. Of course they wouldn;t dare for obvious reasons. Chicken little is too nice a title for the global warmists. Economic terrorists on the other hand would be a good title.


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      Mortis

      Yes, that 5 GTs of co2 we produce must be a nastier isotope than the other 150 GTs the Earth produces naturally – so dropping the total co2 added to the atmoshere annually from 155 GTs to 154 GTs is definitely going to do the trick ;)


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    ROM

    A long post of mine on Antarctic tourism and the dangers that are increasing as both the numbers of tourists and the total lack of any control or limitations on tourism in the harsh Antarctic environment just plain just dissappeared into the ether when I pressed the “submit” button.

    Sighhhh!

    But you can read here what a quite concerned group think about the increasing tourism in Antarctica and the numbers are quite astounding and quite frightening if and eventually when it all goes very wrong.

    From the Antarctic and Southern Ocean Coalition; ANTARCTIC TOURISM

    And the end result when tourism all goes wrong; THE LOSS OF TE901


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    Peter Miller

    I think the point here is the fact the Inconvenient Truth became stuck in the ice is not that global warming does not exist (that’s another subject altogether), but it again demonstrates the quality – or rather lack of it – of those who purvey the theory of CAGW to the public.

    You have to have a special kind of rose, or Guardian, tinted glasses to think anything other than Turney et alia were a bunch of buffoons completely out of their depth and so blinded to reality by their pursuit of the cause of ‘proving’ the existence of global warming, climate change or whatever it is now fashionable to call the last century’s rise in global temperature.

    Sceptics, of course, realise this rise was mostly caused by natural climate cycles, such as we have experienced several times before in the Holocene, the current inter-glacial period. The geological record is a factual embarrassment for alarmists, as it clearly demonstrates the world’s climate is dynamic, not static, and similar warming periods have been experienced many times before in the dozen or so interglacial periods our planet has experienced since the start of the Pleistocene Era 2.6 million years ago. Moreover, there is absolutely nothing we can do to stop the next ice age starting up in about 5-10,000 years time.

    Turney is no different from Hansen, Mann, Briffa, Gore etc – why let the data get in the way of a good story? And if they do, then change/homogenise/manipulate/twist/torture/cherry pick that data until you arrive at the answer you want.

    What I have enjoyed about this farce that it has made lots and lots of people laugh, which means it has made those same people aware of the caliber, or rather lack of it, of those who champion the fantasy of CAGW theory.

    While Turney’s comical jaunt is not on the scale of Climategate, it does represent several leaps along Jo’s ‘Road to Reality’.


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    Greg Goodman

    OT

    Jo, I know you’ve covered false claims of 54 degC etc so I though this may be relevant. I found video clip on the Guardian site that shows the thermometer reading 54 C.

    http://oi39.tinypic.com/2ng90yd.jpg

    Looks pretty much like it’s placed on a North facing wall and is in partial sunlight at the time it’s filmed showing 54 degrees.

    /OT


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      AndyG55

      LOL.. that really is funny , isn’t it. !!

      I wonder what sort of floor is below.. dark slate maybe ??


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      VirusP53

      Greg the video you linked doesn’t show anything about it being on a north facing wall or being in the sun it ONLY shows a close-up of its readout … The rest of your little story you have just made up …

      If you actually checked out other temps in Oodnadatta today you would find many were at 53 , 54 they all cant be wrong


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        Popeye

        Virus

        If you knew ANYTHING about temperatures you would have known they are meant to be taken inside a Stephenson Screen.

        This ENSURES a standard environment for meteorological measuring equipment. I guess you must have missed the sunlight falling on the thermometer in the video.

        Who cares if it’s not facing North – it proves NOTHING.

        Glad to be of help.

        Cheers,


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        janama

        The highest temp on record for Oodnadatta is 50.7 in January, 1960


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        AndyG55

        poor Virus… more like a single celled amoeba. !!


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        Greg Goodman

        Well try to make up your own “little story” then. Let me give you some hints:

        It’s the hottest part of the day , probably mid afternoon. S.A last time I checked was in the southern hemisphere.

        Now have a look at the shadow and take a guess where the sun is in relation to the thermometer. Then see if your viral neurons can work out from there what direction the wall on which the thermometer is pointing in.

        I’m not trying to be super precise but it clearly is not facing south.

        The key point is that you CANNOT measure air temperature with a device stuck in direct sunlight.

        The dumb-assed eco-warrior journos that filmed this, do not even seem to be aware that they have filmed the very proof that it was NOT 54 deg C in Oodnadatta.

        “…they all cant be wrong”

        Why can’t they? Since you did not point me to one single recorded temp, I certainly ain’t just going to take your word for it nor assume that the other thermometers you claim as evidence were any better placed than this one. In fact, if they are showing about the same temp, the chances are they were not any better placed.


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          Greg Goodman

          I’ve just reviewed that clip and the first frames show the whole face of that thermometer in direct sunlight ! But only reading 50C.

          http://www.theguardian.com/world/video/2014/jan/03/australian-heatwave-bushfires-video

          Apparently it got so hot it broke the glass ;)

          They do not even say what date the report was filmed. As AndyG55 links, proper records don’t show it getting hotter than 48 deg C.

          But, hey, since when did AGW propaganda let data get in the way of the “reality” of global warming?


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            janama

            Here’s the Data from Weatherzone for Oodnadatta over past days. Weatherzone get’s it’s data direct from BoM.

            Fri
            Jan 3 20.4°C 31°C 0.0mm
            Thu
            Jan 2 29.8°C 47.0°C 0.0mm
            Wed
            Jan 1 30.6°C 48.0°C 0.0mm
            Tue
            Dec 31 27.8°C 45.5°C 0.0mm
            Mon
            Dec 30 23.1°C 43.1°C 0.0mm


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              AndyG55

              “Weatherzone get’s it’s data direct from BoM”

              Yep.. It was just the first one I came to on a 3 second search..

              ..one that the amoeba could easily have done if it had the intelligence.


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        Bones

        If the 53,54 temps you refer to cant all be wrong,then why did older temps in the same range from years past need to be adjusted. A clue could be the warming meme won’t work without a little fiddling and not just with numbers.


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        Mark D.

        HPV (aka Virus P53)

        You have connvinced me that there is global climate change. One little place in the world MIGHT have reached record temperature.

        Wait, how long is the record?

        As long as we are comparing records, Take a look at North America…….


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          Mark D.

          Like this North America:

          http://www.startribune.com/local/238603781.html 1-3-14

          With temperatures across Minnesota expected to be in the double digits below zero on Monday, Gov. Mark Dayton took the unusual step of canceling schools statewide

          Getting students safely to and from schools were key among school officials’ concerns. The National Weather Service predicts that most of the state will experience the coldest temperatures in a decade Monday, with lows reaching 30 degrees below and wind chills predicted at 50 degrees below.

          Yes that is -30 and -50 (F.)
          Minnesota’s northern border is the (N)49th parallel the southern is the 30th parallel. Those of you surrounded by nice warm sea water, in similar latitudes, should count yourselves lucky.


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        Mortis

        they all cant be wrong

        another fallacy – argument to authority – fail

        Tell Soros your cadre of trolls needs some debate training. I would say tell him you need ethics training, but he has no idea what “ethics” are


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    AndyG55

    Its not mine, but I’m going to use it anyway ! :-)

    “Ice thaw a ship come failing in on Christmas day.. on Christmas Day.. (sung to a certain xmas tune)


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    Dave

    The statements are starting to come out already:

    1. The Australian Antarctic Division says its resources have been stretched to the limit by its diversion to Commonwealth Bay. (Hint – money needed for these please Australian Taxpayer)
    2. Jason Mundy from the Antarctic Division hopes the Russian ship’s insurers will foot the bill for the rescue. (Oh – we’re just so under funded that the good Russians should pay all costs – dreaming here)
    3. Jason the added “It’s difficult to quantify costs in dollar terms because for us the costs are largely going to be in costs and operational terms,” – is he running for politics?
    4. Prof Turney: “I was greatly relieved to hear from Murray that the disruption to the vessel schedule is likely to be limited.” (please don’t take too much from my grant money.)
    5. Prof Turney: “Massive thanks to Australian, Chinese & French icebreakers for all their hard work!” (where is the french icebreaker?)
    6. AAE member and senator-elect @janet_rice video diary from the Antarctic promoted by Prof Turney again. (Buying future funds from the greens – he’s must be on ICE)

    There has been no reports from the Russian captain, the French or Chinese at all. The insurance companies will probably pay out all costs (China and Russia especially). The governments will then no doubt have all the details of the MAD Professors antics in Antarctica all on file and approach the AUS government through the UN.

    The current government should release all of these files if approached and pay the insurance companies, and deduct all money of the appropriate bodies eg: UNSW, AAE, Prof Turney, The Greens etc. If we don’t then our government will owe favours to the Chinese, Russians and French for years to come. Especially on access to the Antarctic.


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      Allen Ford

      5. Prof Turney: “Massive thanks to Australian, Chinese & French icebreakers for all their hard work!”

      No mention or thanks for the meteorological advice and resources kindly supplied by the dreaded denialists, resources they should have had right from the start of their stoopid escapade.

      There are some children who should not be let loose without competent, adult supervision!


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      ianl8888


      …The current government should release all of these files

      Not a hope

      Anything released to the general public will be very heavily expurgated (censored)


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    handjive

    Yes. They said it.

    Hottest year shows need for carbon tax: Labor, Greens
    .
    But, Australia has had a carbon(sic) tax since November 2011, still has one, and now we have the hottest year ever!

    Obviously a carbon(sic) tax can’t stop climate change.


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      Bones

      If 2013 was the hottest year on record and 1.2C above 1961-1990 average,does anyone know what the highest temp was to get that average.


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      AndyG55

      Actually.. according to BOM the last 2 years have been the “hottest effah”

      Both occurred AFTER the carbon tax was introduced.

      It is therefore obvious that the carbon tax has CAUSED this hot weather.


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        James

        Actually the carbon tax has increased the cost of energy therefore the increased cost of energy has caused this hot weather. If it walks like a duck and talks like a duck then it must be a witch…


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      bobl

      More likely we need to adapt… “Government to use climate fund to offer subsidised airconditioners to pensioners, approves new fossil fueled power station to produce electricity for plan”


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    Dave

    The PR machine is ramping up to counter the truth on this one.

    Alvin Stone, media manager of the Australasian Antarctic Expedition and ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science blames global warming for vessel getting trapped in thick summertime sea ice.

    How this is presented is criminal. The greenies are desperate now to shut down all media concerning the Ship of Fools.

    Would you by an Antarctic trip of this bloke?

    I will not pay taxes until my local member (Clive Palmer) can assure me that not one cent of taxpayers money will subsidise this rescue. I may be waiting for an answer for years, as he’s busy eating at the moment.

    Pharck, what do we do with this joke of the year. Professor Turkey, Professor Flim Flam and David Suzuki are now in the top three idiots of the CAGW crew.


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      john robertson

      I love that recurring line, they were never in any danger.
      Fine, so which fool pulled the panic button?
      False alarms especially MAYDAY, is criminal worldwide.


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    Lazlo

    In Hobart the next circumpolar cold front has this evening swept down from Mount Wellington. We had a day of calm and relative warmth, and then woophta! It is cold and we now face 4-5 more days of this according to BoM.

    A year ago it was 45% here, the day of the Dunalley and Derwent fires. This was a result of a continental high dominating the polar weather. There has been nothing like that for the last six months. Every time we have had a relatively warm and calm day, it has been quickly superceded by fronts coming in from the roaring forties.

    This is 43 degrees south. It is tough and predictable. 60+ degree south is much wilder but also predictable. How the hell was this expedition allowed to proceed?

    I know the answer: they are ignorant and spoiled children, with no sense of self responsibility. They assume that the Government will help them out. If not, it is an abuse of ‘human rights’.


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    PhilJourdan

    A poster over at WUWT has been reading one of the blogs. It shows gross incompetence on the part of the “scientists”. http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/01/02/now-that-the-ship-of-fools-is-safe-in-antarctica-tough-questions-need-to-be-asked/#comment-1522117

    They knew it was coming and ignored it.


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    AP

    GIPA request, UNSW for planning, risk assessment docs?


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    Dave

    TROLL POLL ALERT,

    And now it’s time for the ABC to chime in on the heat.

    DO YOU THINK AUSTRALIA IS GETTING HOTTER?

    They’ll shut this one quick, because their propaganda was supposed to get at least 90% of ABC radio listeners?

    Let’s shut down the poll, Eheheeeehhee.


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      Eddie Sharpe

      Yes But. How many of these 300 or so votes counted are from active, publishing Clkmate Scidntists with st least 50% of their recent publications being on Clkmate Science (a la Doran & Zimmerman et al., et al.)

      And what would disqualifying all but those gravy trainers do to the measly 53% consensus eh, tell me that.


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      Turkey Hunter

      Did it Dave, 52% responding “no” to the question “do you think Australia is getting hotter?” at the moment.

      In truth, my view is that Australia probably is getting a little warmer compared to the Little Ice Age which ended around 150 years ago. But it is just part of a natural cycle, humankind’s contribution post industrialisation is so small it is difficult to even detect.

      However, I just want to be contrary because for the green-communists running the poll, “yes” implies that anthropogenic factors are the sole reason for the warming.


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      Ask a stupid question, get a stupid answer.

      Is Australia warming? Without a time frame every answer is correct.

      I referred to the holocene optimum and answered No.

      It would appear to be a proxy poll of belief in man-made global warming among readers of the
      ABC site… though confounded by skeptics who assume the ABC means “warming in the last century” and answer yes correctly.


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        AndyG55

        If they asked ‘in the current century”.. the answer is NO.

        But the general populace doesn’t keep an eye on things like RSS and GISS, they only hear was the MSM tells them.

        So the 50/50 answer is quite intriguing !


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    Lars P.

    I saw in the news that the chinese ice-breaker is now stuck in the ice… Is it still the case?


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    Greg Goodman

    I don’t think this is going to move too fast from now on.

    A change in wind direction will ease the pressure on the ice and maybe allow the Xue Long to free itself. But it’s not going to change much for the A.S.

    I think they’ll wait for the US Coast Guard Polar Star to get within range in about a week and then make a request for assistance.

    The main objective in the short term was get this bunch of sightseers out of the way for when the real work has to be done. They’ve already proved that they’re a liability to everyone concerned.


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    d.B. cooper

    And the opportunity cost of this ship of Eco fools?

    http://nofrakkingconsensus.com/2014/01/02/professor-of-climate-change-chris-turney/

    Real scientists who can’t do real science because the Eco Fools wanted to make Greenie propaganda.


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    Poa

    I note the view from the Aurora Australis webcam is unchanged from about 2 PM at least yesterday. The time changes, but not the view, even the same bits of ice on the port view.
    Stuck?
    No,?
    Surely they would have told us!
    Check it out yourself and tell me what I’m missing.


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    spence

    They wanted some ‘melting’ publicity, long shots with expanses of open water with the ice cropped out and anything else unusual that they could assign to global warming. It appears that they started to take risks in order to get the goods.


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    Jaymez

    Having participated in a similar summer Antarctic expedition, and also being an ex Royal Australian Naval Officer, I have been watching this saga with great interest. There will no doubt be many questions to be answered.

    My trip was over a decade ago yet even then we had constant weather and satellite updates coming in not just from the normal sources, but from all the Antarctic Stations in the areas we were operating. The captain kept a constant and wary eye on the weather, and more than once we changed our itinerary and plans because of changing weather conditions, and were called back to the ship from shore early to get clear gathering ice floes.

    From what has been reported here Jo, it seems to me that the plans for the day’s activities should have been altered the moment that Argo sank and failed to operate altering the dynamics of their day’s programme. And they should have always had a contingency in place for fast evacuation back to the ship unless they were carrying with them the means of survival on the ice for at least a number of days.

    Just getting back to the ship would have taken a great deal of time if more ice had moved in. The Geminis, especially if they are towing the Argos, cannot manoeuvre easily through the water with even small pancake ice (sea water freezing over), and little bits of ice (brash ice). No doubt the going would have been very slow with passengers taking turns to fend off the ice from the small boats as they picked their way back to the ship.

    It was always going to take a long time to get back to the ship. If they were late because they were short on Argos for their planned activities on shore, then that would have made matters worse. And without a contingency plan which might have allowed the ship to escape to open waters and ferry the passengers to the ship by helicopter later, the captain would have had no option but to wait. He could hardly leave without them.

    As much as I would like to blame Turney, as expedition leader, if he kept the captain appraised of the expedition’s situation, then the final responsibility should have been the Captain’s. He is responsible for the safety of his ship, passengers and crew. So unless Turney overruled the captain or gave him ‘expert assurances’ that the ice wouldn’t be a problem, or wasn’t honest in appraising the captain with regards how long they would be, I think it is likely the responsibility for getting caught will end up with the captain.

    As far as the problem being foreseeable – I can’t see how it couldn’t have been given the information to hand.


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      James

      Just supports the mounting evidence against the reliability of the Science of Climatology already responsible for the waste of billions of dollars on desalination plants and wind farms that could have been more productively used for hydro dams and real jobs.


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    Kraft of Pristine Valley

    The boat was chartered by an expedition led by the University of New south Wales Climate Change Professor using tax payer funding to collect data on global warming. Prior to the cruise he was fully aware of the extensive sea ice in Commonwealth Bay see p2 of the brochure for paying ‘guests’ that were invited to help offlay some of the costs. http://www.spiritofmawson.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/06/AAE_Leg2_itinerary_02.pdf


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    N.Swallow

    Regarding culpability who would have been piloting the Gemini,s or zodiac,s . If it were an expedition member then it would be their fault they lost an Argo . If it were a member of the ships crew ? Well that would change things. Either way as jaymez says the schedule would have been changed . What I don’t understand is why with one Argo lost and one previously known to be unreliable they still continued to operate as though they had three. Reckless doesn’t begin to describe it.


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