JoNova

A science presenter, writer, speaker & former TV host; author of The Skeptic's Handbook (over 200,000 copies distributed & available in 15 languages).


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A Monster La Nina in the making?

La Nina is here. But how big will it get?

The NCEP NOAA forecasts suggest it might be so big, it’s historic — stronger and colder than anything since possibly 1917. (Then again, the Australian BOM are saying it’ll be a bit weaker than the last one.) But as Frank Lansner points out, the NCEP model got it right last year when many others were not even close.

Lansner has spotted the uber cold forecasts of NCEP. By March next year their models are telling them the Pacific Ocean (section Nino 3.4) will be 2.5 degrees below average. The forecasts are so unusually cold, some of the model runs don’t even fit on the graph. (Warmistas must be quaking at the thought of a blockbuster cold northern winter. Bring out your “warming causes cooling” memos.)

 

NCEP Forecasts LA Nina 2011

If conditions do reach 2.6 degrees below average, that would make the ocean surface temperatures in that zone, colder than anytime in the last 60 years. It would be the La Nina to almost match the strength of the 1998 El Nino anomaly  (2.8K) that set records all over the world.

ONI - La Nina El Nino recordings since 1950-2011

[Source: page 22 of this NOAA presentation]

 

See Frank Lansner’s post on Hide the Decline for a comparison of model predictions.

 Lansner:

CFS/NCEP seems to be the model with far best succes in recent years, and thus, it is truly interesting that the CFS/NCEP predicts a historic Super La Nina just few months ahead.

1) This will lead to the largest temperature decline in many years.

2) If true, we have demonstrated that practically all models used cannot predict even extreme cold just a few months in advance…

 

Related information:

Lansner was asking the question on Sept 11, 2011. Is another big La Nina on the way? See how that graph has changed!

I regard this post  How The deep oceans drive the atmosphere that I did with William Kininmonth, to be one of the most useful informative ones I’ve done.

 

UPDATE:  Baa humbug- genius – points out in comments that there are two types of NCEP forcasts. The raw one (above) and the Probability Density Forecast (PDF) below. The PDF below forecasts a bottom of -1.5 C and puts the swing up out of LA Nina conditions in January which is more likely that the raw forecast which is predicting an April upswing. Baa points out that ENSO swings are Jan or July things, not April occurrences.
La Nina forecast NCEP PDF
The SOI was higher last October than it is now:

SOI ENSO

VN:F [1.9.22_1171]
Rating: 7.6/10 (16 votes cast)
A Monster La Nina in the making?, 7.6 out of 10 based on 16 ratings

Tiny Url for this post: http://tinyurl.com/3ezvx94

119 comments to A Monster La Nina in the making?

  • #

    What does this mean for Australia this summer? Warmer or cooler than usual?


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      Ken Stewart

      I agree with Joanne of course, but time will tell- as always. La Nina brings rain to the east, with reduced maxima under cloud as BOM explains, but also brings colder temperatures some months later as well- nothing to do with the rain but wind circulation patterns. I’m tipping an early Wet (based on seeing the ants climbing higher!) with the monsoon trough (and possibly the first tropical low) appearing on weather charts by mid to late November.
      My temperature forecasts mightn’t be too far out after all.
      Ken


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  • #

    For Australia — on the Eastern side, it means RAIN. Maybe floods. Possibly cyclones.

    LA Nina’s bring Rain to the Western Pacific, so that applies to many Asian nations as well.

    Think “2010 summer” and possibly, more so.


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  • #
    Tristan

    2) If true, we have demonstrated that practically all models used cannot predict even extreme cold just a few months in advance…

    Incredible.


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  • #
    John from CA

    Hi Joanne,
    I was just stopping in to point to the NCEP forecast and you’re already all over the news.

    This is interesting though:

    BAM
    “Current observations and model predictions indicate that this La Niña is likely to be weaker than the strong 2010-11 event.”
    http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/

    Note: This conflicts with the NCEP forecast which indicates a deeper La Nina.


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  • #
    John from CA

    sorry s/b BOM not BAM

    BOM
    “Current observations and model predictions indicate that this La Niña is likely to be weaker than the strong 2010-11 event.”
    http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/

    Note: This conflicts with the NCEP forecast which indicates a deeper La Nina.


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  • #
    Rereke Whakaaro

    Asia is booming at present, but they have their own series of bubbles to contend with.

    If the rainy period in South East Asia proves to be wetter than usual, it may well be the catalyst for some of those bubbles to burst.

    If this keeps up, I might run out of popcorn.


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  • #
    Stacey

    My prediction for this Friday 12pm GMT is that Australians will be in a deep depression and under heavy clouds. The cause has nothing to do with La Nina but that the barbarian Welsh will win the third place play off :-)

    Anyone who posts that I am living in LaLa land won’t be my favourite person.


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  • #
    klem

    If the global temperature falls 2.5 degrees next year then obviously Australias new carbon tax worked.


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    • #

      If the global temperature falls 2.5 degrees next year it’ll be due to La Niña. If the carbon tax works as advertised it’ll be due to divine intervention.


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    • #
      amcoz

      Obviously the weather listens as it has taken fright of what Juliar might do it doesn’t ‘do the right thing’, as she keeps telling anyone who’ll listen.


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      • #
        Robert

        What is most humorous to me as I observe all of this is it appears that every time the AGW (or whatever it is called these days) community makes some outrageous claim of the “impending doom” due to CO2, human activity, a conservative winning something somewhere, etc. nature does not co-operate with them.

        It is almost as if “mother nature” is a sentient being that is really pissed off at their arrogance in thinking they can control and manipulate her.

        As for me, nature certainly isn’t my mother and I expect it will do whatever it does whether I like it or not.


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  • #
    Ross

    What does Piers Corbyn ( the guy in the UK ) say for the next six months ??


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  • #
    Nick

    Looks like I’ll have to brave a few extra snakes this summer and grab and few extra loads firewood for the winter?


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    • #

      I use a bulldozer to collect firewood. It has a canopy to prevent those pesky Koalas from falling on my head.


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      • #
        The Black Adder

        While your going scaper…

        do you mind getting an extra ton of wood for Bob!

        He is gonna get cold down in that hut of his in Tassie, he will sure need it!! He loves burning Carbon !! He is a grand hypocrite !!

        Speaking of hypocrites, anyone seen Adam Smith lately?


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  • #
    Andrew Barnham

    The concept of a model ‘ensemble’ cracks me up. We admit that our models are rubbish, but we’ll slam them together on the assumption that in the middle of all that computer generated noise is the correct signal we are seeking.

    They really should call it what it is. A model cacophony.


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  • #
    Bulldust

    Amazing how models are all dead certain about the fact we are going to see massive warming by 2050 and 2100, but they can’t even begin to predict the size of the La Nina which is already heading our way. Ahhh but these are very different models, they will say. Cue /yawn.


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  • #
    Madjak

    More rain might help with melbournes water storage levels. We need it according to the govts world class experts. We have run dry due to the never ending drought caused by global warming:

    http://www.melbournewater.com.au/content/water_storages/water_report/zoom_graph.asp

    Lucky we have that overpriced desalination plant, whew, what a relief. I’m so glad they rushed that one through!

    I feel so fortunate to be led by such superior foresight and leadership. I was against the idea, but their infinite wisdom has shown me the error of my ways.

    I know, sarcasm is the lowest form of humour.


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  • #
    Bulldust

    O/T but news guaranteed to make you gag, $4 million was handed to Green groups spruiking the Government’s anti-CO2 message:

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/climate/green-groups-get-3m-from-alps-largesse/story-e6frg6xf-1226169141400

    We flagged this some months ago when we got wind of it, now we know who got the funding…

    Surely I am not the only one that finds this misuse of taxpayer monies absolutely abhorrent?


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    • #
      Louis Hissink

      Bulldust, easier to label the Greens as Communists and then proceed to interpret the actions of the Gillard government – makes more sense than assuming they are well meaning tree huggers.


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    • #
      Bruce of Newcastle

      Particularly liked the $250,000 grant to the Climate Institute to produce an independent assessment of the impacts of the carbon price on the cost of living.

      Independent?! They’ve got the hide of a rhinocerous and the brain too.


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    • #
      lawrie

      Bruce, You do the Rhino a disservice. They have poor eyesight, not necesarily a small brain. After all their only threat are humans and they were around long before men walked the earth.

      The Climate Institute has the gall to demand the data and workings of the AFGO which determined the price rises of food based on the intro of a CO2 tax. Funnily enough they haven’t asked Flannery for the proof of his predictions of 20 feet, 100 feet (your number for this week) rises in sea level. Government sponsored (Taxpayer funded) flag wavers; as independant as Flannery, Karoly, Chubb and Ove Gulberg.

      Lets hope Abbott sacks them all when his time comes. They are responsible for huge expenditure based on a lie that they as scientists should have recognised years ago. If he needs someone to give the charlatans the bad news pick me.


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  • #
    ,memoryvault

    A year ago the BoM said the 2010-2011 La Nina was going to be a non-event, and based on that sound and learned advice the QLD gubmint kept the flood mitigation Wivenhoe Dam full.

    Brisbane got flooded.

    Now the BoM has said the 2011-2012 La Nina is going to be a non-event, and based on that sound and learned advice the QLD gubmint is going to keep the flood mitigation Wivenhoe Dam full.

    What could possibly go wrong?


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    • #

      It’ll be déjà vu all over again. Be generous, perhaps they just mislaid their copy of “Flood Mitigation for Dummies”


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    • #

      Well actually no. Earlier this year SEQ Water released a fair amount of water from the 3 main dams, Wivenhoe Somerset and North Pine (the one that flooded me last time) due to the imminent La Nina as advised by the BoM (with caveats)

      Currently, I see that they’ve allowed Somerset and North Pine to build up but Wivenhoe is still only at 81.4%

      http://www.seqwater.com.au/public/dam-levels


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      • #
        memoryvault

        Not withstanding that Wivenhoe is “only” at 81.4% (at the start of the wet season), nonetheless the official word – according to article linked above – is that it will be allowed to reach and remain at 100%, based on “expert advice” (from the BoM). Quoting from the article: –

        The State Government says it won’t be lowering water levels in two major dams in the southeast before the wet season.

        It says the decision to keep the Wivenhoe and North Pine Dams filled to capacity is based on expert opinions and the interim report from the Floods Inquiry.

        The Natural Resources Minister Rachel Nolan says the commission has recommended levels only be reduced if the weather bureau forecasts extreme conditions.

        So, as I said before – what could possible go wrong?


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        • #

          That’s fair enough MV, ministers have no choice but to rely on “expert” advice, which at the time of that article (30/9) said…

          The continuing cooling trend in the central Pacific Ocean since early winter is consistent with a developing La Niña event. For example, temperatures below the surface of the tropical Pacific Ocean during September are 4 °C cooler than average in some areas. The majority of leading climate models predict current patterns and trends will continue, with further cooling beyond La Niña thresholds during the last quarter of 2011.

          If a La Niña does form, current indicators are that it will be weaker than the strong 2010-11 event. La Niña events raise the odds of above average rainfall across the north and east of the country, but don’t guarantee it.

          Since then, BoM has released a further report…

          Conditions in the tropical Pacific Ocean are consistent with the early stages of a late-forming La Niña event. If the current cooling persists, as is expected, then 2011-12 will be recorded as the second La Niña in as many years. Current observations and model predictions indicate that this La Niña is likely to be weaker than the strong 2010-11 event.

          In addition to the trends in the ocean, key atmospheric signals such as trade winds, cloud and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), are also close to, or have passed, La Niña thresholds.

          La Niña events raise the odds of above average rainfall across northern and eastern Australia, but do not guarantee it. Oceans surrounding Australia’s north are currently close to or cooler than average, which is less favourable for widespread rainfall than at this time in 2010,

          Next report is due on the 26th and I don’t expect it to be much different to the one above.

          The part that concerns me is the “Oceans are cooler so less chance of rain” bit. What they fail to understand is that Central Australia is sopping wet still with many many shallow lakes. Westerlies will not be arriving dry as they did throughout the 90s and 00s. Alrerady moisture laden westerly air colliding with moisture laden ocean air is a recipe for lots of rain along the East Coast (not to mention hail storms like the one we had last week).


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          • #
            KeithH

            But Baa, our independent Chief Climate Commissioner Tim Flannery (still drawing the big bucks to sell us something that seems to be now a fait accompli), assured us all the ground will be so hot from that last never-ending drought that there’ll be no runoff, so there’s absolutely no danger of any more floods – ever! ……aaaaahhhh!! glug,glug,glug!!!!


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  • #
    Engineer

    Good grief – Jo is now confounding inter-annual ENSO with long term climate change. Wow – the state of knowledge.
    And what stats – so a model gets it “right” last time so it be the “best” this time … hmmmm…

    Every punter was on for a big La Nina last year come late spring. And Memoryvault – Brisbane regional BoM office was one of them ! As well as the Lord Mayor.
    And Memoryvault – there is this thing called the flood compartment in Wivenhoe – 1.45 million ML on top of 1.15 million ML of drinking water at “100%”. And Wivenhoe is actually 81% and releasing – http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/wivenhoe-releases-unrelated-to-flood-risk-20111017-1lt9e.html

    Barnham’s comment on “ensembles” is simply mindless. Obviously a disbeliever in chaos and sampling the bounds of predictability. Presumably you naively believe in deterministic predictions too.

    What uninformed commentary.


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    • #
      handjive

      @ Engineer
      October 18, 2011 at 9:08 am
      “Every punter was on for a big La Nina last year come late spring. And Memoryvault – Brisbane regional BoM office was one of them.”

      Not every punter, Engineer. The Aust. BoM:
      National Seasonal Rainfall Outlook: probabilities for Spring 2010, issued 24th August 2010

      The national outlook for total rainfall over spring (September to November), is neutral for most of the country, with the odds favouring neither wetter nor drier conditions.
      The main exception to this is in southwest WA, where a wetter than normal spring is favoured.

      Of course, the reality in Qld is well documented on the + side of neutral.
      Southwest WA the reality was the opposite:

      In stark contrast, the SWLD continued to experience a very dry year with very much below average rainfall across most of the region. The Lower Southwest recorded its driest spring on record, and the SWLD its 5th driest spring on record.

      Another ‘not on’ punter was the Qld office of Climate Change report;
      Climate Change in Qld, what the science is telling us Oct 2010
      [ http://www.climatechange.qld.gov.au/pdf/climate-change-in-queensland-2010.pdf ]

      pge 45
      Higher temperatures, increased evaporation and lower rainfall associated with climate change are expected to adversely affect water runoff. (DNRW 2008a)

      Your link gives no confidence on Brisbane water management:

      MORE than $40 million worth of water has been funnelled through Queensland’s costly purification pipeline only to be dumped directly into the Brisbane River.

      While southeast consumers battle escalating water prices, authorities have defended their flushing of about $38,000 worth of water a day.

      What ever they are doing, they’re not telling the truth.


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    • #
      Annie

      You must be employed by the “Mrs Palmer and Five Daughters” company !

      ELECTION NOW !!!!!


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  • #
    Bruce of Newcastle

    Well a 2.5 C cooling is as predicted. Look at the last graph in the article.

    Even groups like Accuweather are saying the winter in N America will be “brutal”. Same in Europe.

    No sign of Dr Hansen’s big el Nino though.


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    • #
      memoryvault

      No sign of Dr Hansen’s big el Nino though.

      It’s off playing hide and seek in the “deep oceans” with Trenberth’s Travesty.


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    • #

      the winter in N America will be “brutal”.

      One of the best songs of all time…

      Doug Ashtown, Winter in America. Enjoy with compliments (I’m just gunna cry now, I love this song)

      “>youtube


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    • #

      Being a Texian, La Niña’s winter effect is not so worrisome as is how it will affect next summer’s weather. Here at the northern edge of the Sonora and Chihuahua deserts, we can expect another hot, dry summer just as this summer was.

      The heat is bothersome, since gov’t and greenie interference has stifled the electric utility companies’ efforts to increase generating and transmission capacities. I estimate a 20% voltage drop to residential users through the heat of the day and not much better at night due to their being hot, too. What will hurt will be the expected drought conditions. We are desperately below reservoir capacity in northeast TX.


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      • #

        I think I can help you out. I’ve working in my back shed on a revolutionary invention. POWDERED WATER!

        I’ll send some over to you when Obama visits, he’s an amicable guy and I’m sure he will help you out.

        When you receive it all you have to do is…….add water! Oh dear, back to the drawing board.


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  • #
    Stacey

    @mostlyharmless
    Sorry I am Welsh also and it was a bit of banter hence the smiley face and reference to Lala land.
    No offence intended so let’s reduce the temperature:-)
    Nos da


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  • #

    We did this last month HERE

    My comments still stand HERE and HERE


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    • #

      More proof that the oceans drive the climate. I calculated that the heat capacity of the atmosphere is equivalent to just 3.7 metres of ocean depth. The dog (oceans) wags the tail (atmosphere), not vice-versa. We’re just fleas blundering about on the dog’s back, yet some of us think they can wag the tail without the co-operation of the dog.


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  • #
    Roger

    So what can we expect in New Zealand? La Nina brings NE winds and dry to the east? Seas warmer than usual as we saw in summer 2010/2011.

    Can anyone advise?

    Cheers


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  • #
    Crakar24

    Baa Humbug,

    I read your post on Watts, you talked about the SST off Darwin. I thought these SSt’s were related to the PDO, last years floods was caused by coal miners a combination of the La Nina and warmer SSt’s from the PDO. I also thought the PDO/AMO/AO etc were the main drivers of all this with La Nina/El Nino following along being driven by PDO etc or do you think they act independently?

    Do you have a complete detailed description of how all this fits together?

    if so could you please share your thoughts.

    Cheers


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  • #
    Andromeda

    Hi all
    This super or monster La Nina was predicted by agricultural weather forecaster Ian Holton more than 6 months ago. His predictions have been unerringly accurate over the past few years. Free of charge you can access his 30 year forecast where he puts his predictions against Inigo Jones the legendary QLD forecaster from the mid 1900s. He is a retired meterologist from the BOM and uses Inigo Jones’ forecasting methods with additional modern sources. He has many interesting articles available, as well as snow forecasts etc. He does not believe in AGW.


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  • #
    Crakar24

    Completely OT, but some of you may remember a little while ago i warned you all to be on the look out for the next false flag event to demonise Iran, well we did not have to wait long.

    I am sure you are all well aware of the alledged plot by a US/iranian second hand used car saleman acting on behalf of the Iranian gov. trying to pay a Mexican drug cartel to kill the Saudi ambassador to the US. This plot is straight out of a Quiten Tarintino movie script (i kid you not) and has triggered a renewed push by the usual suspects to apply further sanctions on Iran.

    Of course Iran has denied all of this but this has not stopped the US gov from banging the drum beats of war even louder.

    The carsalesman has been identified by Pakistani intelligence as someone who has connections with Mossad and has recieved several false passports etc in recent times, the second suspect who just happens to be the carsalesmans cousin has been identified by Interpol as a senior leader in a terrorist group, the Mujahedin-e Khalq Organization.

    Interpol claim the MKO have found a safe haven in Iraq since the 1980′s and even after the fall of Saddam they still reside there due to US obstruction.

    http://www.presstv.ir/detail/205177.html

    The US are moving a very large contingent of naval vessels and marines into the area as we speak, the question is what will China and Russia do (both have exstensive energy deals with Iran) if the US decide to expand the GWOT into Iran.

    WWIII anyone? Whilst i think it is important to keep pressure on this fasical government we cannot afford to take our collective eye of the real game being played out around the globe.


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    • #
      Crakar24

      To the thumbsdowner (post 20),

      One must be careful what they read, it is important to note that the cousin from the Mujahedin-e Khalq Organization is not in custody. Currently he is living the life of Riley in Iraq or somewhere so consider him just a name on a black board.

      The second hand used car salseman however is in custody and i suspect the real story went something like this.

      The car salesman did in fact try to contact a Mexican drug cartel but not for the purposes of attaining their services to assassinate someone but to simply buy drugs. However it all went sour and he got caught up in a DEA sting operation. The sociopaths within the US gov always on the look out for a patsy changed the story (obviously one of them is a Quintin Tarrantino fan) and now we have this international assassination plot with all the intrigue that goes with it.


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      • #
        Gee Aye

        Craker… I’d give it a thumbsdown for the “Second hand used car salesman”. Although this might be just my ignorance; maybe in that part of the world there are second hand used car shops as distinct from the second hand unused car shops.

        carry on.


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        • #
          Crakar24

          He was a car salesman in the US, but i get your point i am calling him a second hand, second hand car salesman which is a bit silly i suppose. How about “a guy that sold dodgy old cars?”


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        • #
          kevin Moore

          http://mathaba.net/

          Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad reacted Sunday to the release by the U.S. government that accused Tehran of sponsoring a terrorist plot in the United States and used the occasion to blame Washington for the frequent bilateral crises.

          “The Iranian nation does not need educated articulate plans of murder. Murder is your thing,” said Ahmadinejad, speaking at the Iranian Parliament, The Iranian President’s remarks were reported by the official news agency, IRNA.

          The onslaught from the leader responds to U.S. charges that the Islamic Republic would be behind a plot to assassinate the Saudi ambassador in Washington, Adel al-Jubeir. Ahmadinejad said the U.S. is seeking “to create a new crisis every day with Iran, accusing it of terrorism.” For him, the American accusations are merely an attempt to try and stop the development of Iran.

          The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Iran said in a statement that the U.S. accusations “have no legal basis” and they only seek to “exacerbate tension in the region” in the Middle East and “undermine international security.”

          “They unilaterally announce charges against a resident (Iranian) in the United States, without providing documents, and create a media campaign against Iran that has no legal basis,” the Ministry said.

          For Iran, Washington should have consulted Tehran about its suspicions. “But the U.S. government ignored the express request of the Islamic Republic which it did, against international conventions,” says the statement.

          A reminder that the west, the United States and Israel in particular, have accused Iran of plans to produce nuclear weapons, which Iran completely denies. Iran is a signatory to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, while Israel has refused to sign the treaty, and is also in possession of a large nuclear stockpile itself, remaining completely unchallenged.

          Leaders of those countries have also threatened Iran with military action, stating that “all options are on the table.” Numerous sanctions have also been imposed on Iran, while there are none on Israel…..”


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  • #
    Crakar24

    I find it quite strange how the mind of the faithful seamlessly drop one dogma and pick up another without ever asking the question WHY.

    For example we seem to have now gone beyond the more Co2 = less rain and snow to more CO2 = more rain and snow but yet for the life of me i cannot remember the discussion and/or the subsequent explanation.

    The block quote is taken from this WUWT story

    http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/10/17/this-is-seriously-fluxed-up/

    The paper, titled “Significant Efflux of Carbon Dioxide from Streams and Rivers in the United States,” also indicates that as the climate heats up there will be more rain and snow, and that an increase in precipitation will result in even more terrestrial carbon flowing into rivers and streams and being released into the atmosphere.


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      memoryvault

      I think “climate science” can be reduced to the following two-step equation:

      1) – MORE CO2 = MORE/LESS (circle required quantity) ___________ (fill in blank) = BAD.

      2) – Complete research funding application.


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  • #
    incoherent rambler

    I am prepared to put up with a long wet, cold summer in Australia, IF it will once and for all bury the AGW idiots.
    Maybe I need 3 consecutive such summers.
    It only need apply to Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane. The rest of the country can continue with its(as usual) random weather patterns.


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      Crakar24

      IR in post 22,

      Read my post 20.1, the controllers of this scam will never admit defeat they will just change the model outcomes or at least earlier interpretations of them. The faithful will blindly follow their cue and start parroting the new religion.

      Yes agreed they will lose a few fringe dwellers everytime but the collective will hold firm. In short 3 wet summers will not be enough to finally drive the wooden stake through the AGW heart. I did read somewhere that they “however they are” are now predicting the NH (UK) will dip into another LIA which will last about 100 years, not sure how accurate this is but i reckon by about the 5th year in the JB’s, MattyB’s, Blimeys & Adam Smith’s of this world will be huddled together in some deep dark corner of the internet still practising their now outdated religion.


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      • #
        Winston

        the JB’s, MattyB’s, Blimeys & Adam Smith’s of this world will be huddled together in some deep dark corner

        A pretty picture that, like 1930′s hobos riding the rails. Maybe then they can commiserate together about what might have been.


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    [...] A Monster La Nina in the making? – La Nina is here. But how big will it get? The NCEP NOAA forecasts suggest it might be so big, it’s historic — stronger and colder than anything since possibly 1917. (Then again, the Australian BOM are saying it’ll be a bit weaker than the last one.) But as Frank Lansner points out, the NCEP model got it right last year when many others were not even close. (Jo Nova) [...]


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  • #

    Hi Baa!

    SOI:
    I found it odd too, that NCEP/CFS can predict such a strong La Nina even though SOI index is not that impressive at all.

    But they do, and since their model obviously MUST be 100% “aware” of SOI, i there simply has to be an explanation of how NCEP/CFS can predict strong La Nina anyway, my guess:

    PDO

    And as explained here:
    http://hidethedecline.eu/pages/posts/historic-la-nina-imminent-233.php
    - the 2010 La Nina was a “West-East” La Nina, it had its cold-water-ammonition from west to east.
    The building up of the present La Nina cold waters (which is occuring now) in the first months did not have any cold water coming from the west. So far much cold water seems to have come from north ans south, so we could call this a “north-south” La Nina.

    There are different opinions on the PDO impact on ENSO index, but perhaps the NCEP/CFS are much more “aware” of the PDO. See here for todays MASSIVE cold build up especialy in the north east pacific:

    http://hidethedecline.eu/media/BLANDET/Nina4/unisys17oct.jpg

    In fact, the build up of cold water in the NE pacific has been remarkable in this last week, while also NCEP/CFS rather quickly has upgraded their La Nina strength prediction.

    And already now, in the first months of the upbuilding of La Nina, summer 2011, NCEP has been more correct the the other models. In fact NCEP/CFS was nearly alon in the prediction that ENSO would dive june-August 2011, many other models predicted weal El Nino conditions.

    Also for the 2010 La Nina was better predicted by NCEP/CFS. Again we had negative PDO, that might not be taken into account by other models.

    Summa: In the recent years we have had cold PDO, in the same period mostly ALL models except NCEP/CFS has CONSTANTLY predicted too warm ENSO index, take a good look:

    http://hidethedecline.eu/media/BLANDET/Nina4/NOAAmodelssep2011.jpg

    So on this very convincing statistic from the link above I cant help see NCEP/CFS as the best (not accurate!) indicator right now. IF PDO is not really calculated in by many models, this would not be something new.

    K.R. Frank


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      Hi Frank and Crakar24

      Frank I’m not sure what you mean by a “west to east” La Nina.
      Until I get information otherwise, I believe there are 2 types of La Ninas, a true La Nina and a false La Nina.

      True La Ninas are caused by deep cold water upwelling off the coast of Peru in Sth America. (the upwelling itself caused by frigid waters sinking off Antarctica)
      These cold waters are pushed in a westerly direction by the trade winds which themselves are caused by the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) which is a measure of Mean Sea Level Pressure (MSLP) between Tahiti and Darwin.
      True La Ninas are stronger and last longer.

      False La Ninas usually occur after a series of weak to moderate El Ninos where ocean heat content is discharged at the same time as wide spread cloud cover not allowing SSTs to recharge, leading to negative SST anomalies. There is very little (or no) strong feed of cold upwelling water from the Peru coast.

      In both cases, we have warm water in the Western Pacific being pushed further west by the cooler Central and Eastern Pacific waters, against the coasts of Australia and Papua New Guinea. The moisture laden winds bring rains to the east and north east of Australia.

      So why were last years rains so heavy, especially in Queensland?

      The combination of a strong true La Nina with an historically strong SOI, COUPLED WITH a moisture laden Australian desert caused a cooler wetter spring/summer in Queensland. It didn’t matter from where the wind blew, Qld got moisture.

      There was a fairly strong La Nina in 2008. In fact the Nino 3.4 was stronger in 2008 than in 2010. That La Nina turned the Australian desert into a wet haevan which is still there today (thanks to Yasi replenishing it early this year)
      So again this year, no matter from where the wind blows, Queensland will get moist air and likely regular rains. I don’t expect them to be heavy as last year due to the SSTs of the coast not being as warm as last year (but who knows, we ain’t got crystal balls)

      The confounding factor this time around is the especially cool waters lingering in the North Pacific as you’ve pointed out. These waters seem to be feeding into the cool Peruvian generated La Nina waters.
      I think I’ve rambled a bit, sorry.


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        Didn’t read like rambling to me. I don’t know much about ENSO so any background is useful. Much of the sea-level rise in the South Pacific seems to be associated with strong El Niño events. There’s a subsequent drop in the following year or so, but this is less than the rise, so there’s a net “step-up” over the period. I’m intrigued as to why this should be so.


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        Hi Baa!
        Thanks for writing, im just out the door so it will be short :-)

        Heres from before the 2010 La nina. Joane made a little “film” with my shark :-)
        http://joannenova.com.au/2010/05/the-la-nina-shark-rises-to-bite/

        We then had a massive amount of cold water in the west that seemed to travel East and give us the 2010 La Nina.

        This time, there where NO Cold water from the west travveling East, actually when the ENSO started to dive here in 2011, there where only WARM waters in the west. But non the less, ENSO dived.
        So how could there suddenly be more and more La Nina conditions?

        It seems that for the 2011 La Nina Cold water just “appears” in the middle of the pacific equator, and then I took a look at the averaged temperature anomaly for the 300m upper waters:
        see last figure of:
        http://hidethedecline.eu/pages/posts/historic-la-nina-imminent-233.php

        (Todays heat upper 300 m:
        http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/ocean/real_time/xymaps!20111017!Anomaly!Temp%20averaged%20in%20upper%20300m!/ )

        Since cold water cant just come out of no where, my guess is that it has to come from North and south. This may very well point to the strong negative PDO as main La Nina driver this time, what i called a “North-South” La Nina.

        But buttom line, NCEP/CFS has calculated in SOI im sure, so they have to weight other factors much too. (Too much?)

        K.R. Frank


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          I don’t often disagree with you Frank but I can’t accept the cold water travelling west to east. It’s always east to west.

          sst

          Since the massive El Nino of 1983 (which caused terrible drought in Oz) almost all of the ensuing La Nina waters were fed from the south. (Moving north under the surface along the South American coast and surfacing at Peru)
          These cool waters are then ‘pushed’ west along with the warm waters ahead of it being pushed against the Oz PNG coasts. (as can be seen clearly in the graphic)

          The below graphic further demonstrates this

          ssts


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    At the Long Paddock site you see the 90 day av SOI Index peaked at 8.1 on 3 Oct. The BoM says it needs to be over 8 to be a La Nina. Since the 3rd Oct the 90 day av SOI has slid to 6.87 on 18 Oct. So IMHO it is too early to call a monster La Nina.


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      @Warwick Hughes
      The NCEP/CFS ENSO predictions has dived for many months while SOI has not been changing much. This suggests that NCEP/CFS prediction is including much more than the SOI.
      PDO, deep water temperatures accross the pacific etc.
      I agree that SOI it self is not impressive at all, but NCEP/CFS obviously must have taken SOI into their calculations?
      I find it hard to believe that NCEP/CFS should be wrong simply because they dont include SOI or the like.
      But time will tell. So far NCEP/CFS is on track unlike most other models.

      K.R. Frank


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      Louis Hissink

      Warwick,

      I’ll remind you of this, :-) , if and when I have a drilling rig stuck near Borroloola in a few weeks time. I am assuming that it’s going to be a dry start to the 2012 wet season, and that I can safely work till December. Then it can rain as much as it likes, but oh for a reliable forecast; Piers Corbyn does not extend his work to this part of the world apart from extreme weather events.


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    Tim

    With ever-increasing evidence of a cooling planet – even from NASA; here comes the ‘what goes around comes around’ scenario. Institutions like BOM are becoming sceptics! Should we call them ‘the new deniers’?


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    I believe that one should never just look to the SOI for ENSO predictions, here some PDO-ENSO relationships:

    PDO vs. ENSO (El Nino – La Nina index):
    http://theweatherguru.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/08/pdo-vs-enso-20yrs1.jpg

    And similar back to year 1660, verdon anf Franks 2006, GRL:
    http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_tG8JCC_Tnp0/StpjSwkhrcI/AAAAAAAAAAs/WvxBpk99voA/s1600/ENSO_PDO_COMP.JPG
    see
    http://astroclimateconnection.blogspot.com/2009/10/which-came-first-chicken-or-egg.html

    They conclude about the relation PDO – ENSO:
    “It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to realize that every time the PDO switches positive, there is a progressive increase in the mean intensity of El Nino events, and every time the PDO switches negative, there is a progressive decrease in the mean intensity of El Nino events.”

    Climate4you PDO recently:
    http://www.climate4you.com/images/PDO%20MonthlyIndexSince1979%20With37monthRunningAverage.gif

    PDO from year 1900, Roy Spencer:
    http://www.drroyspencer.com/global-warming-background-articles/the-pacific-decadal-oscillation/

    K.R. Frank


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    PJB

    That historic La Nina in 1917 wouldn’t have been the harbinger of the Spanish Influenza epidemic outbreak, now would it? Back then, they had WWI to transport the cold-weather spawned virus around the world. Now we just have jet travel and global access.


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    This might be of interest here (from CO2 Science):
    Tropical Cyclones Making Land-Fall Over Eastern Australia

    The two researchers with Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology first note that their new data base allows them “to document changes over much longer periods than has been done previously for the Southern Hemisphere,” and among the host of results they describe, two of them stand out with respect to their significance to the global warming debate. First, they report that “the sign and magnitude of trends calculated over 30 years periods vary substantially,” highlighting the fact that “caution needs to be taken in making inferences based on e.g. satellite era data only.” And second, they report that “the linear trend in the number of severe TCs making land-fall over eastern Australia declined from about 0.45 TC/year in the early 1870s to about 0.17 TC/year in recent times — a 62% decline.” And they add that “this decline can be partially explained by a weakening of the Walker Circulation, and a natural shift towards a more El Niño-dominated era.” Thus, they conclude the abstract of their paper with the remark that “the extent to which global warming might also be partially responsible for the decline in land-falls — if it is at all — is unknown [bold and italics added to highlight the irony of the result].”

    I take all I’ve said about the BOM back. Well, not all of it, just some of it. Perhaps a little of it….


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    J.H.

    The last 36 hours it’s been bucketing down in Cairns…. Over 200mm easy.


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    kevin Moore

    http://english.pravda.ru/science/earth/12-04-2011/117547-ocean_whirlpools-0/#

    Giant ocean whirlpools puzzle scientists
    12.04.2011
    US scientists discovered two giant whirlpools in the Atlantic Ocean, off the coast of Guyana and Suriname. It became a sensational discovery because this part of the ocean has been studied thoroughly, and no one expected anything like that to appear in the area. More importantly, no one can understand where the whirlpools came from and what surprises they may bring to people.

    According to Brazilian scientist Guilherme Castellane, the two funnels are approximately 400 kilometers in diameter. Until now, these were not known on Earth. The funnels reportedly exert a strong influence on climate changes that have been registered during the recent years.

    “Funnels rotate clockwise. They are moving in the ocean like giant frisbees, two discs thrown into the air. Rotation occurs at a rate of one meter per second, the speed is sufficiently large compared to the speed of oceanic currents, on the border hoppers is a wave-step height of 40 cm,” Castellane said.

    Even during the dry months, when the movement of oceanic currents and the flow of the Amazon River practically comes to a standstill, the funnels do not disappear. Therefore, the nature of the funnels does not depend on the flow of water, which one of the world’s biggest rivers brings into the ocean. The natural phenomenon, which creates the whirlpools, is unknown to modern science.

    0
    SharePrint version Font Size Send to friendAs a matter of fact, the phenomenon of giant whirlpools in the World Ocean is not new to science. In most cases, the craters, or rings, as scientists call them, are formed as a result of so-called vertical currents. The latter, in their turn, appear because of differences in water density which appear because of difference in temperatures of water layers. It is an open secret that cold water is thicker and heavier, so it goes down, underneath the masses of warm water, which is lighter. This is the reason why warm currents in the World Ocean always flow closer to the surface, whereas colder currents flow closer to the bottom.

    However, such movement of water may not always depend on the difference of temperatures of the water column. The difference in salinity can also be a reason. The mechanism here is the same. The density of saltier water is higher, this water is heavier and it moves closer to the bottom, pushing less saltier water up. This type of vertical fusion occurs frequently in the tropics because high temperatures lead to the evaporation of water from the surface. The salt does not evaporate with water, though. It stays in the ocean, which raises the level of salinity on the upper layer of water. This layer “drowns” and gives way to less saltier waters of the depth.

    Such vertical movements of water create giant whirlpools. The whirlpools, tens and even hundreds of kilometers in diameter, may last for months and even years, scientists say. The vertical movement of waters is a slow process, though. Why do those whirlpools exist for such a long time? This is partially the effect of Earth’s magnetic field. In addition, marine water contains many charged ions, Na and Cl for example. To crown it all, water molecules are dipoles that are charged both positively and negatively.

    Any dipole starts spinning when moving in the magnetic field. An oceanic ring gathers millions of billions of molecules together. That is why the giant circle movement triggered by the vertical movement of water may last for months and years mechanically. Ions also give more power to the craters. Natrium and Chlorum are charged as well, and their movement in the magnetic field of the Earth also leads to the appearance of the circle movement.

    It is not ruled out that the reason for the appearance of the whirlpools off the coast of South America is the same as in other parts of the World Ocean. Scientists are currently studying the influence of those giant funnels on the climate of Latin America and Africa. Such whirlpools show influence on the atmosphere and form cyclonical air mass. They can also affect the movement of air mass formed in other places. For the time being, scientists do not know how the newly discovered water craters can affect the climate of Central and South Americas.

    Anton Yevseyev
    Pravda.Ru


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      J.H.

      That’s very interesting… Observational validation of a plasma universe with it’s electical influence, perhaps?….. It is via Pravda though… so I’ll take it with a pinch of saline electrolyte…..;-)


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      The Black Adder

      Oh the irony Crakar24, thats a classic!

      It`s a bit like Warnie asking the Melbourne Media to give him some privacy with his pommy sheila, after he has been a media tart for the last few years on Twitter! Oh the Irony.

      And what about Juliar, oh the irony !!


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    David W

    I wouldn’t pay too much attention to the magnitude of the CFS forecast, even Joe Bastardi has questioned it. It forecast something similar last year and was a fair way off the mark then also.

    What I take from the forecast is perhaps the possibility of a triple La Nina. After only just returning to neutral in late Autumn and early Winter we will transition straight back into La Nina conditions by July or August 2012.

    The third La Nina will be a moderate to strong event.


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      Hi David!
      According to the people behind NCEP/CFS they have a new V2 running “Improoved” etc.
      http://geoserver.isciences.com/DataBlog/?p=2977

      But due to all the question marks raised here in the blog I myself am a little less confident of the predictions.

      What appeared convincing to me was, that month after month NCEP/CFS keeps their strong La Nina prediction, and in fact so far this year, they are on track inlike mostly all other models. And more, if they where wrong, I would have expected that their prediction would slowly fade a little, but the opposite happens! We are now just 40 days from where the NCEP/CFS prediction suggests that the present La Nina goes stronger than the previous, so there is NO sign of NCEP/CFS “regretting” any thing, fading, no they just keep on UP-adjusting their predictions of a super La Nina even just 6 weeks before “showtime”.

      So its my “logic” How can they UPadjust their super La Nina prediction so close to “showtime” if its just an error? Then it has to be a huge error..!

      Well, I will lean back and watch!

      K.R: Frank


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        The Black Adder

        Hi Frank,

        Wow, you know a lot and I reckon what you have written on this thread has been awesome.

        As a resident of lovely Cairns, Far North Qld. 3 questions please.

        1. Should I be shitting myself about the coming wet season?? Or just crack a beer and watch the cricket !!
        2. Now Julia has a Carbon Tax coming, La Nina will become a thing of the past , right?? Just joking.
        3. Should QLD State Govt. begin decreasing Wivenhoe Dam water levels, after last years debacle, reaching 148% and nearly bursting?
        If we get as good as rains as last year, we gonna need some divine intervention!

        I appreciate your response, and yes I am serious, just had a few good aussie reds, thats all :)

        Yours in appreciation.

        The Black Adder.


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          Hi Black Adder!

          Thanks for commenting!

          Many models actually still dont predict La Nina at all ! And some just a weak La Nina.
          Non the less we are moving faster against La Nina conditions now than most models predicted.

          I think here in “sceptic-land” the opinions goes from an ordinary La Nina (like 2010) to a stronger than normal La Nina, perhaps even much stronger.

          The Model we are discussing in this blog is the NCEP/CFS that predicts La Nina conditions stronger than peak level 2010 already within 2 months, and predicts this to continue until at least july 2012.

          We have had several such strong and long-lasting La Ninas before – ex. in the 1950´ies – but there is many opinions about the usefulness of NCEP/CFS. Can we trust it?

          The NCEP/CFS keep UP-adjusting their prediction on the coming La Nina even now around 6 weeks or so before it should get quite strong. If NCEP/CFS is mostly wrong, I would have expected their predictions on La Nina strength to fade down by now, but the opposite occurs.

          So! I cant say no more than I find it likely that a 2010-like La Nina is coming, and possible that it will be stronger, maybe much stronger.

          We will see :-)

          K.R. Frank
          PS: On the effect on Australia/rain etc. (“Bucketing down”) i think the Australian bloggers are much more qualified to answer!


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    Marcus B.

    WE are already experiencing moderate snowfalls here in Jilin province, China.
    This is somewhat early in the year for snow.

    The locals are predicting a very long,cold winter.

    Last year set new records here, with temperatures dropping to a minimum of – 37.6.
    The coldest for more than 60 years.
    There were more sub zero days than any here could remember.

    Marcus B.


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    jim heath

    I came across this site and was facinated by the content. Have any of you guys got into this? if this information is correct it puts the climate bull in a completely different perspective.
    http://landscheidt.wordpress.com/


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    Manfred

    Thanks Jim – Landscheidt Cycles Research – very interesting indeed and provides a potentially substantive solar mechanism. Trouble is that the denizens of settled climate science et al. can’t imagine (and deliberately don’t want to) that any other interpretation is possible, let alone is worthy of consideration! – “prejudice is the perversion of conservatism representing the deification of error under the illusion of wisdom.” (requires attribution)


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    petermue

    I followed Dr. Landscheidt’s work since years and also made some extentions to his graphs down to presence.
    Sometimes not easy to comprehend and to interpret, but if you have the hang of it, it’s not sooo difficult.
    His findings and the precision of his predictions speak volumes.
    I.e. if you’ve read his paper about the Golden Section, you can find it in almost every data.

    Very interesting stuff and a good lecture for the coming cold winter.


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    Pierce

    I don’t read much, but I still find it interesting!


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    Pierce Richard Evans

    I don’t read much, but I still find it interesting!


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    Interesting front page story in todays Sunday Mail (Brisbane).

    A SECRET weather bureau report predicting another summer of wild weather will force the Bligh Government to open the floodgates on major dams.

    The dramatic new forecast delivered last Wednesday, but kept under wraps will prompt the Government to reverse measures to keep the dams close to full before the wet season.

    The Bureau of Meteorology has provided the federal and Queensland governments with the latest La Nina data, which shows the chances of extreme rainfall have doubled in recent weeks.

    Queensland Police has also been briefed by the forecasters. Premier Anna Bligh announced on September 30 that Wivenhoe and North Pine would not be drained hoping that Queensland would not be hit hard again.

    Interesting thing for me is; Why the SECRET report? Shouldn’t all Queenslanders have access to the BoM forecasts? What are they afraid of?

    According to the BoM, the Southern Oscillation Index has risen sharply from +6 to +12 in recent weeks. This has them worried.

    Looking at the latest Sea Surface Temperatures, I would have thought West Australians might have more concerns about foul weather and cyclones than Queenslanders.

    I still think the key is the trade winds. They haven’t picked up yet, unless they do, this La Nina will not be as intense as last years or 2008.


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    Extremely interesting Baa, thanks!

    In the meen time, I noticed that SOI the last days has finaly jumped up to around 20 for the first time in a longer period.
    There is a cold water area around Darwin, could this not have delayed/prevented the SOI index to rise or?

    K.R. Frank


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    Baa and co!
    I think you where correct and I wrong, i might seem so.

    Overnight 25oct to 26oct CFS/NCEP totaly changed their predictions, so short before the strong La Nina was supposed to start. I have never seen a model switch over night like this, and yes, it do come as a surprice to me. IF the post 26 oct predictions are correct, then the PRE 26 oct predictions are EXTREMELY wrong, and it certainly confused me!

    See graphics, in updated article:
    http://hidethedecline.eu/admin/pages/modify.php?page_id=27

    K,R. Frank


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      Hi Frank

      Yes the forecast is noticably different. In fact the latest (30th Oct) ensemble mean is now barely reaching -2DegC whereas just a couple of weeks ago it was off the chart at more than -3DegC.
      I’d be surprised if the Nino 3.4 SSTs reach much below -1.5DegC by January.

      Again I think the key is the SOI which seems to have stalled at around 10-11, trade winds are not picking up, they should be at their strongest by the end of October.

      This La Nina will start to weaken now until the 2nd week of January. It will be interesting to see if it swings up to a weak El Nino or back to another weak La Nina


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    The Dude

    Australia is already showing some extremely unusual weather patterns I have yet to see in 40 years.After 3 years of drought in Western Australia where I live ( I live in Perth ),especially last year which I believe had the driest August to October on record,it’s been raining consistently all year and is still raining currently.It’s been a very long time since I can recall instense bursts of rain in this city as late as November with wet and unstable weather patterns still on the horizon.For the last 13 years and even longer ,normally all the more unstable and intense weather patterns in Western Australia end after August/September.I also can’t remember two years in a row (2010/2011 ) with such extreme variations in the weather.2010 was unbelievably dry and created an agricultural crisis beyond belief for all but those in the far south and far north of the state.2011 has seen record rainfalls in some of the states cental and most unlikely and remote country towns.Salmon Gums a small town well south east of Perth recorded it’s wettest day in 80 years in October some 60+ mm of rain in a day,the wettest day I,ve ever seen in Salmon Gums in my life –I’m 48 years of age.
    Last year despite the drought in the South West of Western Australia,there were record rainfall levels in the north of the state.
    Unbelievable amounts of 2000 -3000 mm of rain were recorded in places in the far north of W.A. like Kuri Bay in just a single month.
    Last year Queensland a state in Australia’s far north east had one of it’s wettest January to March periods on record.I heard someone on the local national radio say they saw it rain in some Queensland town every day for 3 months without a break,although I seem to remember some short respites from the rain in between January to March 2011 for 2 to 3 days at a time.
    As 2011 comes to a close ,the heavy rainfall appears to have returned earlier in eastern Australia this year than in 2010.
    Australia’s major eastern cities Melbourne and Sydney have already experienced some extremeley large weather systems with lots of rain in them.There’s an ominous and odd feeling for some reason something big is lying just around the corner which is rather eerie.Last years floods in Queensland were the third biggest on record ,yet a month ago a Queensland town was lashed with huge winds and rain in October which I can’t ever remember happening in Queensland so early in the wet season.
    Rain bearing fronts that usually start in the West of Australia and confine their rainfall exclusively to the state of Western Australia have 3 times to date swept the entire country from north to south and coast to coast.I can’t ever remember such intense systems doing this ever ,or so early at the beginning of the country’s annual wet season.
    Last month the Australian Bureau of Meteorology of BOM stated on their website that this years La Nina would be a lot milder than last years event and a month later they have already upgraded that opinion predicting a stronger event than last month.
    It’s a worrying sign that BOM should be changing it’s mind so dramatically in the space of a month considering the awesome nature of weather events in Australia over the last 2 years.
    With a lot of local farmers unable to harvest so far because condtions are still wet and some farmers already with ruined crops from too much rain,the country could be in for a very intense next 4 months.


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