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The La Nina shark rises to bite

UPDATED (below)

Does this herald the end of this years warm spell?

Frank Lansner has been watching the Southern Oscillation Index and noticed it’s rapid climb out of El Nino territory. He’s found graphs showing how the warm water is displaced from below and I’ve pasted them into a brutally rough animation.

la nina el nino

Graph SOI

See Franks full post

I wouldn’t use a single season to debunk AGW (and nor does Frank) but we all know that the crowds are swayed by weather, and Frank’s point is that the weather is possibly not going to help The Big Scare Campaign.

McLean, De Frietas, and Carter published a paper last year pointing out how much influence the La-Nina-El-Nino system has on the global climate. In an El Nino, the surface of the Pacific doesn’t churn as much because there is not as much wind, and so warm waters stay on the top and satellites record high temperatures. But in a La Nina the winds resume, surface mixing increases, deep cold waters from below displace the warmer water on top, and so the ocean surface cools.

If you’ve wondered why, during the 1998 El Nino, the satellite records “spiked” up so high compared to the surface records, it’s because of the influence of ocean temperatures. Satellites measure the surface temperature of the planet, and 70% of the surface is ocean. So when warm water is “stalled” on the surface, it shows up in the satellite records. But deep down, the oceans presumably are not getting that warming effect (or at least it is delayed).

There is roughly a 5-7 month lag between the SOI and global temperatures.

John McLean makes a guesstimate on the run (from an airport lounge):

I think UAH LTT’s [lower trophosphere satellite measurements of temperature] will remain on the high side until around October then a cooling off. Maybe we’re looking at another cold northern winter at year’s end.

Thanks to William Kininmonth for advice (over the last year), and Frank Lansner for his work

—————————————————————————————————————————————————————-

UPDATE: There’s become quite a debate about the likelihood of a La Nina.

Frank writes in comments –

Met Ofice predicts La Nina soon, in fact already from around June (!) and then obviously for many months ahead : http://hidethedecline.eu/media/Death%20og%20GW/3.jpg

SOI appears to align to this prediction and the the water temperatures below surface for The Pacific ENSO area shows hardly any warm water left. Only cold benieth surface.

The point: A La Nina now will prolong the period of no rise in global temperatures.
By now, RSS gives a flat trend 12 years and 11 mths back:
http://hidethedecline.eu/media/Death%20og%20GW/4.jpg

- So what going to happend to the global warming agenda with a few more years of La-Nina-No-Warming??
If the GW croud has had a hard time, the coming time appears deadly.
Therefore the SHARK :-)

Actually it does look as though a somewhat significant La Nina is underway.

———————–

Billy b p informed us of Bob Tisdales well informed view on Watts UP that La Nina’s rarely follow El Nino’s.

———————–

Frank Replies

Billy p, Yes, Bob Tisdale adresses Steven Goddard and this writing and more about the ENSO. I wrote at Watts: @Bob An impressive investigation you made , thankyou.

In this article above, I mostly rely on the Metoffice prediction. The Metoffice concludes La Nina, actually a stronger La Nina in just a few months. But obviously, The Met Office has been wrong before! – And I’m sure a lot of your considerations where never thought of by the Metoffice.

However, the Metoffice´s La Nina prediction seems to go hand in hand with the marked change in the SOI index.

And then of course, the fact that under the Nino area of the pacific, most warm water has vanished.

I allways respect 100% your analysis, Bob, and in this case i think i will conclude nothing, and follow the pacific closely :-)

The thing is: One more La Nina, and the period of No global warming will be too long for many GW believers to accept. A La Nina could be the end of GW.

http://hidethedecline.eu/media/Death%20og%20GW/1.jpg

————

Baa Humbug:

Billy and frank

Hi, it’s really hard to tell this one. A running 30 day average SOI index below -8 is an El Nino, above 8 is a La Nina.  Looking at the DAILY values, the SOI rose as high as 20+ right up until early March, pulling us out of an El Nino. Although since then the 30day average has entered La Nina territory (since 17th April actually) and has stayed there, (currently 11.56) the daily values are all over the place without much of a pattern to them. Prediction will be more difficult than usual (imho)

————–

Janama:

I thought this years El Nino was an El Nino Modoki where it forms in the central Pacific instead of the east or the west. Modoki in Japanese means similar but different.

https://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/publications/modoki-ashok.pdf

————–

Frank writes

In bird-perspective one could say that we have a global warming idea that is extremely dependent on El Ninoes to survive. This is perhaps my main point.

The SOI index is above 10, but has not been for long, and the deep water situation:
http://hidethedecline.eu/media/Death%20og%20GW/2.jpg

- Im not really sure what to make of this. But the fact that we by now only have a small layer of slightly warm water do suggest that the El Nino is saying farewell. (But yes, normally i would look west of South America for La Nina signs. Perhaps we will see these soon.)

VN:F [1.9.22_1171]
Rating: 10.0/10 (1 vote cast)
The La Nina shark rises to bite, 10.0 out of 10 based on 1 rating

Tiny Url for this post: http://tinyurl.com/245h3ma

62 comments to The La Nina shark rises to bite

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    Roy Hogue

    From my point of view I could hope that El Nino would continue. California has had lots of rain and snow this year and a couple of more years would help our water shortage problem a lot.


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    Thank joanne for nice animation :-)
    (How did you get the time????)

    Met Ofice predicts La Nina soon, in fact already from around June (!) and then obviously for many months ahead : http://hidethedecline.eu/media/Death%20og%20GW/3.jpg

    SOI appears to align to this prediction and the the water temperatures below surface for The Pacific ENSO area shows hardly any warm water left. Only cold benieth surface.

    The point: A La Nina now will prolong the period of no rise in global temperatures.
    By now, RSS gives a flat trend 12 years and 11 mths back:
    http://hidethedecline.eu/media/Death%20og%20GW/4.jpg

    - So what going to happend to the global warming agenda with a few more years of La-Nina-No-Warming??
    If the GW croud has had a hard time, the coming time appears deadly.
    Therefore the SHARK :-)


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    Roy Hogue

    Frank,

    I can’t help wondering what excuse the AGW crowd will come up with to let them claim global warming is still happening. We’ve already seen that AGW “predicts” the current colder than usual weather. They have no shame so what’s to stop them from concocting an even bigger whopper of lie than they’re already stuck in?


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    Rereke Whaakaro

    Roy Hogue: #4

    … what’s to stop them from concocting an even bigger whopper of lie than they’re already stuck in?

    I think this is going to be very interesting in the months and years ahead.

    Of course the cultists will still try to claim that it is “weather not climate”. They will do this on the basis that “weather can be explained, but climate is ineffable”, and since we can explain this; it is de facto “weather”.

    But I am not sure that this will matter. I am getting reasonably strong indications that AGW is being abandoned in favour of “peak water”.

    In the same way that the alarmists tried to use the output of carbon dioxide as a proxy to “attack” industrialised countries, they are now starting to comment on the “consumption” of water, as an input to manufacturing (and agricultural) processes in the developed nations.

    As one bubble bursts, another is formed.


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    Frank Brown

    Just a little update from Ottawa…supposed to be 29C actually made it to 19C. Environment Canada still insits it’s gonna be 29C tommorow. Meanwhile we had a blizzard (I kid you not) in Alberta last Wednesday. If you in the land of Oz think your ABC is bad, you should listen to our CBC. According to them we had rain in the arctic. Since they never give a time date or place it could have been last summer or in 1950 who friggen knows. Right this minute it is -3C in Iqaluit Nunvaut which is on the edge of Hudson Bay, south of the circle. I have seen freezing rain but never ever rain at these temps. Sorry to rant but your govies are stating to sound sane copared to ours.


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    Neville

    I agree that perhaps in a few months time the satellite temp will probably start trenmding down, whether it will develop into strong la nina though is another issue.

    What I’d like to see comment on is the manipulation by giss and others of the data sets with temps decades before trended down so it appears the more recent years are much warmer as are the trends.

    Pat Michaels appears on a video at the ice cap site showing the increase in temp over the last 100 years is not unusual if one takes into account all the reasons for this increase like UHI etc.
    This video is about a month old and Pat has a blinking graph showing the altered record ( like Anthony Watts ) but I can’t understand why more comment is not made of this serious change to the data record.


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    Hi Neville!

    Actually it does look as though a somewhat significant La Nina is underway:
    http://hidethedecline.eu/media/Death%20og%20GW/3.jpg

    And I agree, Pat Michaels video is really useful!

    K.R. Frank


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    Science Not Consensus

    Frank @ 6

    Heh Frank, at least you have the Canadian Free Press…

    http://canadafreepress.com/index.php/article/22624

    cheers


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    MadJak

    I suspect the AGW crowd will be hoping Mt Kayla erupts in Iceland.

    Then, like they did with Mt Pinatubo, they can blame it on the big bad volcano. Their sacred models will have an excuse.

    Personally, I’m not into hoping for catastrophic events that kill people, but I guess that’s one of the major differentiating factors between me and the Scientologists.


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    Siliggy

    Neville @ 7
    What about the difference between This (click) and that (click) in the CO2 record.
    Lance Pidgeon


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    Roy Hogue

    Rereke @5,

    Water is a problem in a lot of places. But these “cultists” aren’t interested in solving any problems for the benefit of anyone. They just want to satisfy their own pet world view. Southern California imports water from nearly 500 miles away. And all of that system is vulnerable to attack that could shut it down for a long time. And the politicians have their heads where all they can see all the time is where their next vote is coming from. It’s disgusting.


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    Mark D.

    Oh, the shark, babe, has such teeth, dear

    And it shows them pearly white

    Just a jackknife has old MacHeath, babe

    And he keeps it … ah … out of sight.

    Ya know when that shark bites, with his teeth, babe

    Scarlet billows start to spread……
    .

    Sorry I couldn’t resist! :)


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    Waylander

    Rereke Whaakaro@5

    As the wheels come of the AGW wagon I think it`s going to be a race between “Peak Water” and “Anthropogenic Ocean Acidification” as to which is the next bandwagon the green doomsayers jump on

    As one bubble bursts, another is formed. ( very apt description )


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    Mark D.

    Rereke Whaakaro @ 5

    …..I am getting reasonably strong indications that AGW is being abandoned in favour of “peak water”.

    I don’t dispute your thought because I think the “human behavior reformers” are being squeezed out of their AGW bad science so they need something new. Even if they go for “peak water” you know you can make a lot of fresh water from seawater if you have cheap energy.

    By the way have you all seen this site? http://www.seafriends.org.nz/issues/global/acid.htm


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    Rereke Whaakaro

    Neville: #7

    It would have been nice if you had included a reference ;-)

    For those who can’t find it, it is here.


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    Rereke Whaakaro

    Roy Hogue: #12

    Water is a problem in a lot of places. … California imports water from nearly 500 miles away.

    Yes, I too have lived and worked in CA – and survived – just. :-)

    … But these “cultists” aren’t interested in solving any problems for the benefit of anyone. They just want to satisfy their own pet world view.

    I agree with you on that sentiment. On practically every level the cultists/alarmists are driven by a desire to change the world from the way it is, to some ideal utopia that exists inside their own heads.

    Concern about GHG (with CO2 as the star attraction), leading to punitive taxes, resulting in the global redistribution of wealth, was but one gambit in that game.

    Putting limits on water use – rationing if you like – is another way of controlling the wealth of industrialised nations (that consume a lot of water), relative to the non-industrialised nations (that use considerably less).

    Same game, different tactics.

    I have no opinions regarding what drives the protesters on the street, and the trolls in the blogs. Perhaps there are many different drivers.

    I just note the geopolitical implications of what is going on, and the common thread in a lot of these “alarm scenarios”, is a potential increase in the power and autonomy of the international and multinational bureaucracies.

    One of my perennial questions is, “Who audits the United Nations? And if there are auditors, to whom do they report?”


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    Roy Hogue

    Who audits the United Nations? And if there are auditors, to whom do they report?

    Rereke @17,

    If only there was someone to whom the UN was accountable. The U.S. pays 25% of their yearly budget and we should be ashamed for doing it.


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    Billy p b

    I can’t follow the scientific mumbo-jumbo, but the watts up with that guys seem to be saying no La Nina this year:

    http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/05/01/history-suggests-dont-bet-on-la-nina-this-year/


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    Bernd Felsche

    Noteworthy, if not entirely on-topic: Nigel Calder updates via blog as of yesterday.

    From his pages:

    Nigel Calder has spent a lifetime spotting and explaining the big discoveries in all branches of science, from particle physics to human social behaviour.

    After army service, graduation from Cambridge University, and two years’ work as a research physicist for the Philips Group, he began his apprenticeship as a science writer on the original staff of the New Scientist in 1956. He became editor of that magazine in 1962. Since 1966, he has worked as an independent author and television scriptwriter. For his work for BBC-TV in scripting and sometimes presenting a long succession of “science specials”, filmed world-wide and typically 2 hours in duration with accompanying books, Calder won the UNESCO Kalinga Prize for the Popularization of Science.


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    Billy p, Yes, Bob Tisdale adresses Steven Goddard and this writing and more about the ENSO.
    I wrote at Watts:

    @Bob
    An impressive investiation you made , thankyou.
    In this article:
    http://joannenova.com.au/2010/05/the-la-nina-shark-rises-to-bite/

    I mostly rely on the Metoffice prediction:
    http://hidethedecline.eu/media/Death%20og%20GW/3.jpg

    The Metoffice concludes La Nina, actually a stronger La Nina in just a few months.
    But obviously, The Met Office has been wrong before! – And im sure a lot of your considderations where never thought of by the Metoffice.

    However, the Metoffice´s La Nina prediction seems to go hand in hand with the marked change in the SOI index:
    http://hidethedecline.eu/media/Death%20og%20GW/5.jpg

    And then of course, the fact that under the Nino area of the pacific, most warm water has vanished:
    http://hidethedecline.eu/media/Death%20og%20GW/2.jpg

    I allways respect 100% your analysis, Bob, and in this case i think i will conclude nothing, and follow the pacific closely :-)
    The thing is: One more La Nina, and the period of No global warming will be too long for many GW believers to accept. A La Nina could be the end of GW.

    http://hidethedecline.eu/media/Death%20og%20GW/1.jpg


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    Baa Humbug

    Billy and frank

    Hi, it’s really hard to tell this one. A running 30 day average SOI index below -8 is an El Nino, above 8 is a La Nina.
    Looking at the DAILY values, the SOI rose as high as 20+ right up until early March, pulling us out of an El Nino.
    Although since then the 30day average has entered La Nina territory (since 17th April actually) and has stayed there, (currently 11.56) the daily values are all over the place without much of a pattern to them. Prediction will be more difficult than usual (imho)

    The thing I noticed though (I live in Brisbane), El Nino usually means DRY weather in east, south east Oz and WET in South America. We’ve had lots rain right up to March this year and parts of South America have had lots heavy rain, mud slides etc. These are only my observations and not data studies.

    I just think the ENSO behaviour is unusual. What do you think frank?


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    Tel

    Obviously it is cooling down now because Kevin Rudd has shelved his Cap-n-Trade tax. What many people don’t recognise is that the ETS has been shelved for exactly 800 years. Since CO2 rise happens 800 years after temperature rise, it stands to reason that taxing people 800 years in the future is a guaranteed way of cooling the globe right now.

    How to tax people 800 years into the future?

    Run big deficits of course!

    See… Central Planning really does work.


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    janama

    I thought this years El Nino was an El Nino Modoki where it forms in the central Pacific instead of the east or the west.

    Modoki in Japanese means similar but different.

    https://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/publications/modoki-ashok.pdf


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    Steve Schapel

    I have nothing significant to add here, except to say thanks everybody for a very interesting discussion! :)


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    Bulldust

    Somehow I can’t get too excited about climate at the moment on the day our PM declared how he is going to ruin our economy. Didn’t even need an ETS to do it… I am off fighting the blog battle on other fronts atm. Keep up the good fight here.


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    Mr. Humbug, Baa :-)

    In bird-perspective one could say that we have a global warming idea that is extremely dependent on El Ninoes to survive. This is perhaps my main point.

    The SOI index is above 10, but has not been for long, and the deep water situation:
    http://hidethedecline.eu/media/Death%20og%20GW/2.jpg

    - Im not really sure what to make of this. But the fact that we by now only have a small layer of slightly warm water do suggest that the El Nino is saying farewell. (But yes, normally i would look west of South America for La Nina signs. Perhaps we will see these soon.)

    K.R. Frank Lansner


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    JPA Knowles

    Given that the oceans have over 100 X the heat capacity of the atmosphere shouldn’t we be using Joules of heat rather than surface ºC ? Do we have sufficient data gathering to come up with reasonable accuracy yet? I get the sense that most people, including the frightened AGW types, are just “chasing the wind”.


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    Speedy

    Rareke W. @ 5

    Can you recall the time period that was used to justify the whole premise of AGW? I think they considered the temperture record from the late 1970′s to the mid 90′s? In which case, a 15 year period is a valid time frame to measure “climate”. My understanding is that the satellite record gives the global temperature as stable or falling since about 2000.

    An El Nina on top of that would take us very very close to a “climate” time frame, even ignoring the effects of a quiet sun (which has just had a snooze this month – it recorded 12 spotless days in a row.)

    And thanks for dobbing me in to Jo when she got back from holidays last week, by the way. I might add that you’re just as bad!

    Cheers,

    Speedy


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    Ronnell

    30,000 Anti-Global Warming Scientists Can’t Be Wrong

    http://canadafreepress.com/index.php/article/22624

    700 Peer-Reviewed Papers Supporting Skepticism of “Man-Made” Global Warming

    http://www.populartechnology.net/2009/10/peer-reviewed-papers-supporting.html


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    Baa Humbug

    Frank Lansner: #27
    May 2nd, 2010 at 9:00 pm
    Mr Lansner, Frank :)

    In bird-perspective one could say that we have a global warming idea that is extremely dependent on El Ninoes to survive. This is perhaps my main point.

    Your point is a good one and well taken.

    Here is an analogy from the Humbug-perspective.
    We dig-up raw materials in mines. We transport them via slow moving but heavy load carrying freight trains and ships. We further transport via much faster but lighter load carrying road trucks. Some of it local, some of it regional and national. Goods we consume is the end result.

    Now from the above, substitute the sun for the mines, the oceans for the freight trains and ships, the atmosphere for the trucks and finally weather for the goods we consume.

    I imagine regions like the eastern pacific (where El Ninos occur) are like ports, that’s where some of the suns output is transported to, to be offloaded and distributed by the atmosphere.

    They say El Ninos occur due to lack of wind which causes the surface temperature of the waters to warm. I guess if you don’t have enough trucks to unload the ships and trains quick enough, the port will soon get congested. Just like off the coast of Queensland where dozens of ships wait up to several weeks to unload due to congestion.

    I hope I made sense

    p.s. Where do clouds fit in all this? Well; they’re the industrial unions aren’t they (negative feedback if you will). When there is too many of them, the production from the mines drop. If they get really millitant, a little ice age results. lol


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    Rereke Whaakaro

    Speedy: #29

    … thanks for dobbing me in to Jo when she got back from holidays last week …

    I assure you, the pleasure was all mine … :-)


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    Ken Stewart

    @ 5 and 14:
    According to ABC’s Catalyst last Thursday, global warming is all the go in Antarctica. I think they’ll be pushing this idea for a while longer. But Peak Water I can see coming- didn’t you know how sinful it is to eat meat or wear cotton.
    Whatever the reason, I think we’ll continue to have a wet year here in Qld. Gut feeling.
    Ken


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    Rereke Whaakaro

    Ken Stewart: # 34

    … didn’t you know how sinful it is to … wear cotton.

    I agree. I would prefer to wear hemp, but ever since the US Cotton lobby got it banned in the ’30s, it is hard to get.

    It is still grown in some European states, and in China, and I believe it has been legal to grow it in Canada since 1998, but it is still in short supply.

    Hemp, however will grow in arid conditions, and is nowhere near as reliant on water as cotton.

    Perhaps the Australian Liberal Party should take a look at this potential industry – it may be another money spinner, especially if they put an excise tax on it.


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    Speedy

    Rereke @ 34

    I note that you seem unduly knowledgable on the subject of growing hemp? Must discuss this with Constable Plod… :)

    And Stephan Lewandowski appears to have got up on his hind legs at the Drum.

    http://www.abc.net.au/unleashed/stories/s2888700.htm

    I dread to think what the ABC would be like if they weren’t such diligent and impartial professionals?

    Cheers,

    Speedy


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    bunny

    Ken Stewart @ 34

    I think the AGW crowd would like to see us all in sackcloth and ashes, or perhaps hair shirts to atone for our sins against Mother Earth.


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    B. Humbug:

    Some free pocket speculation on winds:

    You know, I often wondered, this “SOI” index, (the Southern Oscillation Index, used to predict ENOS – La Nina/El Nino) it is calculated by comparing air pressure of Darwin with air pressure of Haiti…

    It sounds pretty odd, but the result, the SOI, is useful still. Now you say that El Ninoes can form by weak winds, well then this airpressure Darwin/Haiti might make i little more sence.

    One would then think, that an index better than Darwin/Haiti could be evolved? For example, the wind velocities of the region?

    Winds and the Arctic Oscillation appears to affect if ice is pushed out of the Arctic or not. This again affects the general temperatures of the Arctic and high lattitudes (Northern Europe, Russia).

    So winds appears rather central in the climate formation? And as i remember, the Sun should be affecting the “jet” winds in high altitudes, and thus – as i understand it – to some degree the winds.
    - ok, enough speculation!

    K.R. Frank


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    allen mcmahon

    GCMs provide a great insight into future roughly half senariodict a future dominated by El Nino like conditions and the other half predict La Nina, how can you argue with that. My personal favorite is the HadCM3 it guesses that by the turn of the century nine out of ten years will be El Nino dominated now that is alarmism at its best. The CSIRO chocolate wheel ran a close second to Hadley – makes me proud to be Australian. With 400 underemployed drones in Penny’s climate world I expect to see us top the ranks in the near future.


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    Baa Humbug

    Frank Lansner:
    May 3rd, 2010 at 5:44 pm

    I think you meant Tahiti not Haiti.

    But I do agree it’s strange. Why not Cairnes or Townsville? (on the pacific coast) Maybe it was a convenience thing.

    Have you visited “the long paddock” and John L Dalys site?


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    Rereke Whaakaro

    Speedy: #36

    Stephan Lewandowski appears to have got up on his hind legs at the Drum.

    Oh dear, oh dear. I had not read that article, but I am glad you pointed it out. Isn’t it sad?

    It is interesting that he claims (or even wishes) that the “sceptical movement will collapse”, or words to that effect.

    But he totally misses the point that sceptics do not have “a movement”. They just are.

    His piece smells strongly of propaganda to me (and I have a nose for it). Most probably, he is being coached by a PR wonk.

    Hence his attempt to link climate scepticism with those who believe that 9/11 was a fiendish government plot, et cetera. “Lets put all of the conspiracy theories, and UFO sightings, of the last thirty years in the same bucket, and then throw climate change scepticism in there as well”.

    It is Linking by Association. It is also amateur.


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    Speedy

    Rereke

    It’s a lot tragic – pathetic in fact. I thought this Lewandowski guy is supposed to know something but he clearly draws a big blank on basic logic, let alone science!

    And he even gets a gig on the ABC – probably because Uncle Clive is busy reading his thesaurus!

    Cheers,

    Speedy


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    janama

    Why not Cairnes or Townsville? (on the pacific coast)

    perhaps because they are not western enough. The western region for El Nino concentration is the ocean north of Papua/Irian Jaya.


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    allen mcmahon

    This is not Lewandowski’s first gig on the drum its merely a rehash of an earlier diatribe that was equally pathetic.


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    Baa Humbug

    Speedy I wish you hadn’t posted that link to Lewandowsky. It’s upsetting.

    I sent in a comment but I doubt it will get published. Here it is cut n pasted.

    Stephen Lewandowsky, arent you the bloke who quotes Descartes in your presentations?

    “If you would be a real seeker after truth, it is necessary that at least once in your life you doubt, as far as possible, all things.” (Principles of Philosophy, 1644)

    Well I doubt, I’m a sceptic. But look where it got me, a professor on the government teat all his life lumping me in with moon landing and 911 conspiracy theorists.
    You have no interest in hearing what I might think or what I may have found.

    Way to go proff, you keep quoting Descartes like you did in August last year. You are a fraud.


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    Baa Humbug

    I couldn’t help myself, I sent in another comment to Lewandowsky at Drum Unleashed

    Let me quote your own words back to you Lewandowsky.. From the On-Line Opinion 16/11/2007

    “I recently conducted research with colleagues abroad in which we investigated how people processed information about Iraq. We identified scepticism as the key variable that predicted whether or not people mistakenly believed that weapons of mass destruction had been found. People who were sceptical about the motives underlying the invasion tended to be more attuned to the reality on the ground than people who were less sceptical.

    Similarly, after it was corrected, sceptics were able to discount the misinformation, whereas those who were less sceptical failed to discount the discredited versions of events. Importantly, scepticism did not interfere with people’s ability to remember true events, identifying it as a sharp and incisive tool to differentiate between truth and falsehood.”

    So how is this any different to the current AGW scare campaign? It’s the same politicians, experts (CIA, MI5 Naval Intelligence etc) telling us AGW (WMD) are real.

    I don’t know whether to laugh at you or feel sorry for you Lewandowsky.

    The man is a fraud


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    janama

    I also had a go at him – I called him the master of the strawman and a troll.

    Don’t think it will be published either.


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    Humbug, Yes Tahiti…!

    And yes, LogPaddock is one of my daily routines, must go there!!
    http://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/SeasonalClimateOutlook/SouthernOscillationIndex/30DaySOIValues/

    John Daly, sad he died. Hes work where splendid, and had he still been around I cannot imagine how much he could have contributed today.

    K.R. Frank


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    Rereke Whaakaro

    Baa Humbug: #46

    It’s the same politicians, experts (CIA, MI5 Naval Intelligence etc) telling us AGW (WMD) are real.

    I hope you are not implying that the Intelligence community were saying that there were WMD in Iraq, prior to the war. Or that they are now saying that AGW is real.

    It is my understanding that both fallacies were/are driven by the politicians.


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    allen mcmahon

    We need no longer worry about tipping points, several centuries or even millennia may elapse between the time a tipping is reached and the time an effect is observable or completed. I suspect that Lenton et al are no longer on the “team” Christmas list after these findings.


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    Rereke and Humbug:

    There is one stunning resemblance between the iraq war and global warming.

    Prior to the Iraqi war, the American intelligence collected knowledge from the Iraqi army. And they got the clear honest message from officers within the Iraqi army, that there where other parts of the Iraqi army that indeed possesed chemical weapons. And theese reports where numerous.

    So if the “qualified” personel of the Iraqi army told this, how could it be wrong?
    It seems that Sadams leadership in order to control te army told each fragment of the army that other parts of the army had chemical weapons. So everybody even within the Iraqi army believed something. And everybody believed that the great number of “chemical-weapon-believers” ment that chemical weapons where there.

    In the climate debate, i have talked with many solid pro-GW-scientists for years, but these exchanges of opinions ends in 2 ways: 1) either they cant or wont defend their case or else 2) the dialog ends with the scientists pointing out that other scientists, many other, supports the idea of global warming, and the central role of CO2.

    I have NEVER had dialog with a pro GW scientist who could actually defend GW him of her self. Alleways: “but 2500 scientists believes that..” or the like.

    So this is the stunning match between the Iraq war and the climate debate.
    A HUGE mistake simply based on “A lot of others believes”.
    And it seems that one has not learned from the Iraqi war. We can still have a belief floating around without anybody actually directly can defend it.

    (Im not saying that all aspects of the Iraq war was a mistake, but at least the chemical-weapon-part was.)

    K.R. Frank


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    Speedy

    Janama

    You missed out sharing the centre stage with our mutual friend Stephan Lewandowski. Baa Humbug got stuck into him but SL’s probably got a hide like an elephant anyway. Time for some much needed beauty sleep – good night!


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    Roy Hogue

    Even if they go for “peak water” you know you can make a lot of fresh water from seawater if you have cheap energy.

    MarkD @15,

    I didn’t take sufficient note of your comment before but according to what I’ve read, the City of Oxnard California has put in and is operating a desalinization plant. I’ve forgotten the price tag but it was multi millions. The thing is reverse osmosis which only requires enough energy to run pumps to force the water through the RO membranes — plural because they need several hundred of them. They’re big industrial strength items and probably not cheap.

    By Oxnard’s own calculations this will provide only a fraction of their total water requirement. So multiply the price by whatever it takes to get all you need for one not very large city and then consider what you would need to add to cover growth in demand which is sure to happen. Add to that whatever it takes to get enough water for all of Southern California if we have a few bad years and are short on water. It looks untenable to me.

    Then you have this problem: I’ve used reverse osmosis systems for many years and I can testify firsthand that they’re high maintenance items. Pre filters are required to keep out stuff that would clog the membrane. Then the membrane itself has a finite life and needs to be replaced as well as the pre filters. I’ve no clear idea of what all this will cost Oxnard but this kind of maintenance isn’t necessary with current water supply technology. There are no wear out and replace items in the California aqueduct system that I know of.

    The only other desalinization technology would be to distill seawater and that’s a real energy consumer. So I would look for desalinization to be more expensive, not cheap and not very practical on a large scale. Of course the verdict on Oxnard isn’t in yet so I could be over estimating the cost of operation. Also the price of RO membranes could come down if the technology is embraced on a larger scale.


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    Baa Humbug

    Rereke Whaakaro: #49
    May 3rd, 2010 at 8:41 pm

    What I’m saying is that there is an undeniable parallel between the current AGW misinformation and that during the time leading up to the Iraq war as stated by Lewandowsky himself. Both are disseminated by politicians quoting so called experts. Recall the secretary of state Colin Powell holding up satellite maps (spy maps) at the UN meeting urging the rest of the world to believe. Spy maps, IPCC reports, secretaries of state or climate change ministers, there is not a skerrick of difference.

    Lewandowsky himself made the statement…

    “People who were sceptical about the motives underlying the invasion tended to be more attuned to the reality on the ground than people who were less sceptical”.

    I only quoted himself back to him.

    Where is the difference between the AGW sceptics and the WMD sceptics.

    His words can be paraphrased and hold just as true. e.g.

    “People who were sceptical about the motives underlying the AGW HYSTERIA tended to be more attuned to the reality on the ground than people who were less sceptical”.

    But in talking (and preaching) about the Iraq war, he commends the sceptics. In talking about AGW, he condemns the sceptics.

    My whole point is the mans hypocrasy and lack of consistency.
    I make no judgements about the Iraq war.


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    Baa Humbug

    Oh brother, I just can’t resist. I read something stooooopid and I have to reply.

    I didn’t realise you were a comedian as well. have we been moonlighting Proff?

    You say…

    “The conspiracy theory known as climate “scepticism” will soon collapse because it must be extended to include even the macrolepidoptera, including the rhopalocera, geometroidea and noctuoidea. Yes, the European moths and butterflies must be part of the conspiracy, because they mate repeatedly every season now, rather than once only as during the preceding 150 years“.

    So what are you getting at? I should be worried because some moths and butterflies are having sex more frequently?

    Please tell me you don’t ACTUALLY teach our kids.


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    Great shark. You just need some John Williams music and you’re set.


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    Mark D.

    Roy Hogue @ 53:

    I pay for city water pumped filtered and chlorinated @ $2.60 per 100 cubic feet. (= to 2.83168 cubic meter) or about $.92 cents per cubic meter.

    http://www.ejpress.org/article/4873 In Israel @ “The drinking water that is produced in Ashkelon costs around 52.7 cents per cubic meter, which has been evaluated as the lowest price in the world for this kind of operation.”

    http://www.edie.net/news/news_story.asp?id=11402&channel=0 “The Singapore-Tuas Seawater Desalination plant is one of the most energy-efficient SWRO plants in the world, producing treated water at a total energy consumption for the plant of only 4.2kWhr/m3. This has resulted in an expected first-year selling price of $0.49 per cubic meter – the lowest of any comparable project in the world.”

    The key is low cost energy which won’t happen if the carbon schemes take hold.


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    Ken Stewart

    Mark D
    The Arabs produce enormous quantities of desal water from the Persian Gulf using enormous quantities of oil- they irrigate golf courses, even dairy farms in the desert (I heard of an airconditioned shed housing 10,000 cows). That’s what you can do with cheap energy! For the rest of the world, wait for fusion.
    Ken


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    Roy Hogue

    Mark D. @57,

    As I said, I could be over estimating the operating cost of such an operation as Oxnard’s new plant. Finding any numbers to compare with the stats you show is like pulling teeth. If it’s out there I don’t know the right search key.

    Anyway, considering what they are, I pay a pretty penny for filters and the membrane is even more expensive. Sorry, I can’t find the last invoice and I’ve forgotten the membrane price. But a set of 3 pre filters costs me $40. These aren’t exactly high tech — how much can charcoal cost? The markup is a whopper. Judging from what I experience I made a projection to the hundreds of membranes needed for a practical desal plant. I will suppose from what you quote that commercial stuff has a longer lifetime than what I can get for my system.

    By the way, you have the better deal on the price of water. California thinks it’s my mother and wants to tell me what I can do and how much of it I can do. I pay $2.92 for the first 636 CF (strange baseline number) and then it goes up to $3.20/100CF. This is nothing but punitive no matter what the politicians or the Public Utilities Commission may say about it. Then a bunch of other stuff gets added to the bill. Good old Taxafornia.

    My electricity bill is an even greater wonder to behold. Only a CPA could love it. But boiled down — in December I used 941 kWh and paid $176.84. I make that out to be $0.19/kWh thanks to Taxafornia’s energy deregulation monstrosity. I suppose that Oxnard can get a “volume” discount. But that’s expensive by any measure and these plants need a lot of kWh; just what we need with summer demand exceeding the supply on a hot day.

    If I could support myself as well somewhere else I’d be outta here so fast you couldn’t even see any dust behind me as I beat it to the state line.


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    Frank: Thanks for including my post in the discussion here at Jo Nova’s.


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    Bob! Thank you for your insight. There is so much to know.


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