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Tipping Point? Boris Johnson writes bravely “could it be the sun?”

Mark the moment. This is unusual.

Firstly, it’s not just anyone, but Boris Johnson, Mayor of London, personality, and potential Tory leader in the UK.  (He’s got so much potential several Tories in safe seats have offered to resign to let him run.) Secondly, he’s confident, brazen and unapologetic. There are not many of the usual duck-and-cover caveats (only lip-service ones), and no bowing to the bullies who will call him names rather than discuss the ideas.

It’s snowing, and it really feels like the start of a mini ice age

Something is up with our winter weather. Could it be the Sun is having a slow patch?

Telegraph Jan 20th 2013

As a species, we human beings have become so blind with conceit and self-love that we genuinely believe that the fate of the planet is in our hands — when the reality is that everything, or almost everything, depends on the behaviour and caprice of the gigantic thermonuclear fireball around which we revolve.

No doubt Johnson will be accused of “ignoring the longer trend” because he talks about the last five years of cold cold winters, but beneath his discussion of just how unusually heavy the snow is around London lies the awkward fact that the global warming fans didn’t predict it (not until after it happened) and the longer trend is not what the IPCC predicted in 1990 either.
His focus on the snow is not what I would have said. But then Johnson isn’t trying to make a big scientific case, merely to say that the story doesn’t fit, and it’s time to say the unthinkable — maybe the experts are wrong.

By my calculations, this is now the fifth year in a row that we have had an unusual amount of snow; and by unusual I mean snow of a kind that I don’t remember from my childhood: snow that comes one day, and then sticks around for a couple of days, followed by more.

Note the half caveat — the experts have “good intentions”. Translated, he’s saying they’re “nice people” and we all know what that means:

I am all for theories about climate change, and would not for a moment dispute the wisdom or good intentions of the vast majority of scientists.

Ooh, look. When did you last hear a pollie say the word “empiricist”?

But I am also an empiricist; and I observe that something appears to be up with our winter weather, and to call it “warming” is obviously to strain the language. I see from the BBC website that there are scientists who say that “global warming” is indeed the cause of the cold and snowy winters we seem to be having.

… I merely observe that there are at least some other reputable scientists who say that it is complete tosh, or at least that there is no evidence to support it.

He refers to himself as amateur, a layman, and acknowledges how little he knows, but he knows enough to speak of Piers Corbyn’s work, and he’s familiar with the basics of solar history.

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8.5 out of 10 based on 118 ratings

Scientists behaving badly — more retractions are cheats, not mistakes

Who said scientific experts should be trusted?

Is corruption endemic? Fully 43% of retractions in the life science and medical research journals are due to fraud or suspected fraud.

Misconduct accounts for the majority of retracted scientific publications

Ferric C. Fang R. Grant Steen and Arturo Casadevall

PNAS  PNAS 2012 109 (42) 16751-16752; doi:10.1073/iti4212109

Abstract

A detailed review of all 2,047 biomedical and life-science research articles indexed by PubMed as retracted on May 3, 2012 revealed that only 21.3% of retractions were attributable to error. In contrast, 67.4% of retractions were attributable to misconduct, including fraud or suspected fraud (43.4%), duplicate publication (14.2%), and plagiarism (9.8%). Incomplete, uninformative or misleading retraction announcements have led to a previous underestimation of the role of fraud in the ongoing retraction epidemic. The percentage of scientific articles retracted because of fraud has increased ∼10-fold since 1975. Retractions exhibit distinctive temporal and geographic patterns that may reveal underlying causes.

Plus this published correction.

RetractionWatch points out that this could be the tip of the iceberg

The question, of course, is, how common is scientific misconduct? The simple but unsatisfying answer is that we don’t know, certainly not based on this study, because it’s only of retractions. Some of the best data we have comes from a 2009 paper in PLoS ONE by Daniele Fanelli. In it, Fanelli does his own survey, and combines findings from other surveys. He concludes:

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9.4 out of 10 based on 62 ratings

Whistleblower Science Fraud Site is Shut Down

I would like to see what was on the Science Fraud site. The only parts left seem eminently admirable. Apparently in just six months, the site received anonymous tips documenting suspicious results in over 300 papers. Some of those papers were subsequently retracted.

Wherever there are big dollars, big-corruption follows. Whaddayaknow? Sadly, science is just like any other human endeavor. For every site reporting science fraud that is shut down, may ten alternatives spring forth.

Libertyblitzkrieg.com says “We need more sites like this not less.”

Bill Frezza describes what is known about the site’s demise on Forbes.

A Barrage Of Legal Threats Shuts Down Whistleblower Site, Science Fraud

Those of us concerned about the decaying credibility of Big Science were dismayed to learn that the whistleblower site Science Fraud has been shut down due to a barrage of legal threats against its operator. With billions of dollars in federal science funding hinging on the integrity of academic researchers, and billions more in health care dollars riding on the truthfulness of pharmaceutical research claims, the industry needs more websites like this, not fewer.

Regular readers of Retraction Watch, a watchdog site run by two medical reporters, got the news along with a story about the blog’s anonymous editor, who has since come forward and identified himself as Professor Paul Brookes, a researcher at the University of Rochester. Operated as a crowdsourced reference site much like Wikipedia, Science Fraud, in its six months of operation, documented egregiously suspicious research results published in over 300 peer reviewed publications. Many were subsequently retracted, including a paper by an author whose lawyer sent Science Fraud a cease and desist letter.

This is about scientists behaving badly

There are more retractions due to scientific misconduct than to errors:

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9 out of 10 based on 85 ratings

unthreaded friday

Ive been away this week in Augusta (hence the gaps in posts). Driving back. This is the most south west point where the Indian Ocean meets the Great Southern. Have enjoyed the Blackwood river and canoes. Jo

7.9 out of 10 based on 36 ratings

William Kininmonth: Is it Extreme Weather or Climate Change?

Following in the heatwave theme… William Kinninmonth points out that the long term data on the red hot centre of Australia shows that this January is not unusual.
– Jo.

__________________________________
Letter to the Editor of The Australian

A pattern of extreme weather should not be confused with climate change.

The recent heat wave across much of Central Australia and its occasional extension east and south is a pattern of extreme weather. Climate is the recurring patterns of weather that inure us to such extremes. The climate of Alice Springs is exemplified by 1887, the previously hottest January with an average maximum of 40.7oC. The extreme, nearly 5oC above the long term January average, was made possible by a spell of 11 days over 40oC, a brief respite then another 10 days over 40oC.

Climate change, of course, is a persisting significant departure from the experienced pattern of weather. The current pattern of extreme weather is not outside the envelope of experience that describes Central Australian climate.

William Kininmonth

William Kininmonth headed Australia‘s National Climate Centre at the Bureau of Meteorology from 1986 to 1998.

PS: You may be interested in the pattern of January average temperatures downloaded from the Bureau of Meteorology online archive. The Post Office (PO) site closed in 1953; the airport (A/p) site opened in 1942 and is currently the official Alice Springs meteorological observing station. During the period of overlapping records the airport was, on average, 0.2oC cooler than the Post Office.

 

The current heat has occurred before in Alice Springs. Wait and see what the ave of Jan 2013 brings.

POST NOTE: to clarify “averages”.

The average January temperature was in the context of the daily maximum temperature as used in the letter. The BOM have both max and min tables in their site and ‘average daily temperature’ is usually taken as (max + min)/2. In the context of heat waves people are only interested in max.

William Kininmonth added this in an email Monday morning, but I unfortunately was on holiday…

UPDATE: Back from holiday. Chris Gillham, David Stockwell and others in the BOM had emails waiting for me to point out that “heatwaves” have many and varied definitions, so I dropped the “wave” from the caption, and of course, they are keeping track of Jan 2013 numbers, and while it’s obvious this graph could not possibly have data from Jan 2013 when it was posted on Jan 17, I’ve added the line “wait and see” just to make that clear, especially as this post ages. Even if Jan 2013 in Alice sets a record, this graph (in uncherry-picked entirety) is no friend to those who want to alarm us. As if a four week hot spell is finally “evidence” that 120 years of man-made activities is changing the climate.

For a better idea of what the usual extreme weather in Australia looks like, see the post right before this one.

 

 

8.7 out of 10 based on 87 ratings

Australia – was hot and is hot. So what? This is not an unusual heatwave

The media are in overdrive, making out that “the extreme heat is the new normal” in Australia. The Great Australian Heatwave of January 2013 didn’t push the mercury above 50C at any weather station in Australia, yet it’s been 50C (122F) and hotter in many inland towns across Australia over the past century. See how many are in the late 1800’s and early to mid 1900’s. You can’t blame those high records on man made global warming.  [feel free to post some old records of your own and the source reference we can check and we will update the map]

 Did CO2 cause extreme heat in the 1820’s?

In explorer Charles Sturt’s time it was so hot that thermometers exploded. Was this Australia’s hottest day all the way back in 1828? It was 122F or 53.9C! Naturally it is not a BOM-registered-record (the BOM did not exist then). Nonetheless, Charles Sturt was engaged to explore the nation and given careful instructions to take accurate readings of the climate. Yes, inadequate thermometer shading may have exaggerated the maximum by 1C, 2C, maybe even 3C, but at 50.9C it would still have been considerably hotter than anywhere in January 2013.

Even that long ago, thermometers were a tried and tested piece of equipment. They had been used for 200 years, and the Fahrenheit scale was nearly 100 years old. There weren’t too many people taking temperatures in Australia that day. What are the odds that Sturt happened to be at the absolute hottest spot in the continent? Perhaps it was pretty damn hot everywhere that day? We’ll never know. But that was not the only reading he took  of 50C+ temperatures. Other early explorers also found extreme heat, like Mitchell in 1845.

The largest longest heatwave that has turned up in historical records so far appears to be the one in January 1896 when temperatures raged above 40C across the country from West to East, getting so bad around Bourke that the government put on extra trains to allow people to escape. Panic stricken people fled for the coast and mountains as hundreds died.

The Australian BOM say this current pattern of extreme heat is “consistent with climate change”

This pattern of extreme heat is also consistent with Australia’s historical records set when human green house gas emissions were a fraction of what they are today.

With any record set in the modern era, you need to know two things. One is that The BOM’s raw data adjustments have increased the warming trends in the raw data by around 40%. The second is that when asked, Dr David Jones, Head of Climate Monitoring and Prediction, National Climate Centre, Bureau of Meteorology, stated untruthfully that the adjustments madea near zero impact on the all Australian temperature trends”. 

BOM Excuse for deleting some long held temperature records

The BOM state that to measure the temperature of the air accurately, it is important that the thermometer is shielded from direct sunlight but is still exposed to a good airflow. The standard screen used internationally to shelter instruments is a double-louvred wooden box, with the instruments 1.2 to 2.0 metres above ground level. This screen, known as ‘a Stevenson screen’, was designed by Thomas Stevenson (1818-1887), a British civil engineer and father of Robert Louis Stevenson. The use of a standard screen allows temperatures to be compared accurately with those measured in earlier years and at different places.

The Stevenson screen was first introduced to Australia in the 1880’s and was installed everywhere, with a few exceptions, by 1910. Prior to this date, thermometers were located in various types of shelter, and locations particularly by trained explorers and early landowners, post masters telegraph station attendants and the like who saw it as an important part of their duty. The Stevenson Screens were in fact designed to try to replicate the conditions in which they had been measuring temperature already in most cases. So unless it was clearly documented that the method prior to the installation of the Stevenson Screen was deficient, there would be no reason to disregard the earlier records from the BOM records.

However that is what BOM appears to have done, particularly when the high temperature records were long dated. It is strange that even the the Stevenson Screens were installed by 1910, it took the BOM until the early 2000’s to decide to axe some of Australia’s oldest temperature records.

But they cant be expunged from historical records which is where our team dug some up.

Also strangely, the BOM seems to have no problems with the many temperature stations which are sited in areas where there has been substantial urban and industrial growth which will impact more recent warming due to the Urban Heat Island Effect.

Four reasons the temperature records are meaningless:

  1. the BOM ignores countless historical records of extreme heat
  2. many older temperatures are adjusted lower, making the modern temperatures appear to be new “records”
  3. many stations are new with a very short history
  4. the BoM isn’t honest about the effect of the adjustments

Who knows what the real records are any more?

The latest claim is Australia’s hottest day in history on 7 January, a BoM declaration that seems to be based on a whole new metric of daily temperature records that estimates national averages in past decades.

Who’s heard of the Australian daily average maximum based on the estimated temperatures from all of the BoM’s weather stations? If you can find past official records of this metric that is grid weighted using 700 to 800 stations, do tell us. The record is made by averaging and grid weighting maxima across the entire continent each day.

Can we expect this every day in the future? Does it make the ACORN dataset obsolete? Will the BoM trumpet this daily temperature when cold fronts roll through? Will the source data be inviolate once the daily statistic is published because subsequent correction or homogenisation of earlier daily data will render the statistic no longer reproducible?

These questions must be asked because only the BoM can perform the calculation on a daily basis – the public must wait up to a year in some cases for the data to appear, and the BoM provides no simple access to all that data.

The BoM is populated with many very competent people but the publication of this 7 January record statistic cannot be checked in any way by the general public, even though one of the objectives of ACORN was to improve the transparency of the BoM’s activities.

Nobody is quite sure how these new calculations work, especially since some of the stations that appear to be included were relocated or simply didn’t exist early or at all in the 20th century. Our independent research team is working to try to figure it out right now. Expect an update in the next day or two. Watch this space.

Related posts:

Thanks especially to Chris GillhamLance and Ian Hill as well as the whole research team for help with this graphic, advice and research. Hat tips to Andy and Chris for some old temperature records.

9.1 out of 10 based on 176 ratings

In Australia if you try to clear a firebreak on your land you could go to gaol

Maxwell Szulc

As Greens blame coal miners and SUV drivers for contributing to firestorms that destroy houses, ponder that one man tried to reduce the risk of fires and cleared firebreaks on his property in WA in 2011 and is currently in jail for it, serving a 15 month sentence. Most of the cleared land had been cleared before in 1970 or 1983. This was mere scrubby regrowth. He was trying to separate his property from DEC (Dept of Environment and Conservation) managed land with a 20m wide fire-break. He is due out of jail sometime around Feb 10th, though his government minders have not even fixed that date (are they having trouble calculating “15 months”?) He had previously been jailed for three months in 2010 for a similar action.

This was true civil disobedience. He knew what would happen. He felt someone had to protest and I gather he felt that at 62 and without children or a wife to support, it was his duty.

Szulc cleared his land as a protest. He was in contempt of court, he is in contempt of the DEC.

Some will say that Maxwell Szulc is technically not in jail for clearing his land, but for contempt of court. He deliberately went against a court injunction that forbid him from clearing more land. Many will write him off as a nutter who should have filled in the management plan that the DEC asked him too.

But this is the key. Szulc is a conscientious objector, and cleared the land as a protest against laws he sees as completely unjust.

Szulc believes that his land is his land, and that he should be able to manage it without asking permission from anyone. Those “management plans” sound innocent, but as other farmers (like Matt and Janet Thompson and Sid Livesey) have found out, the management plan is an insidious form of  creeping fascism.

Why should a landowner need to get permission to clear firebreaks on his own property? Land clearing is expensive, and top-soil in Western Australia is a precious commodity (we have the poorest and oldest soil in the world, and fertilizer costs money). No land-owner would want to overdo the clearing or lose that thin layer of top-soil. The owner stands to lose the most if the land is badly managed. That is the point of the free market and ownership by individuals.

Turning into a fascist state?

In a western democracy we all assume that it’s One Law for Everyone. But what if a government department made every business put in a separate management plan for approval? Isn’t that just fascism by any other name? The government department is then free to approve, deny or delay approval on a case by case basis. This pits individual farmers against the state and each other, and puts them under the direction of the state. Sure they “own” their land, but they have to do what the state says — that’s fascism, where the state allows private ownership but commandeers property at will (under communism you neither control nor “own” property). Corruption can’t be far behind.

If the bureaucrat doesn’t like the farmer, they can make life tough. They can selectively enforce the rules. Farmers know that, which is probably why they have been so silent as other individual farmers have either been jailed, or driven to bankruptcy by bureaucrats who don’t have to answer to anyone. Who wants to stick their heads up over this parapet?

Who stands up for them? Their ABC — the love media — agrees in spirit with everything the environment department does (unless it’s not “green enough”). The ABC are missing-in-action when it comes to standing up for the farmers who are forced to pay tax to keep the billion dollar big-government propaganda-machine running.

It’s as if there were a mass of urban regulators, who know nothing about real production or the land, demanding to be in charge of everything, governing everyone down to a micro level from their air-conditioned offices in the comfort of the cities, safely re-elected by the urban majority who only know what the regulator’s mates in the media tell them. A modern version of Rome, with an urban mob pacified by bread and circuses that provides the power base for a class of parasites who controlled everything and in the process just happened to ensure their own lives were comfortable and well-remunerated. Not sustainable of course; there are limits, and maybe we are starting to bump into them now.

Unless the media expose the Kingmaker status of the DEC, voters won’t be demanding their elected officials stop this awful rot. If the media would just do their job…

The Thompsons and Sid Livesey did the opposite to Szulc. They obeyed every order, and jumped through every hoop. For that they stayed out of jail, but lost their properties and businesses, and face bankruptcy. What kind of “freedom” is that?

 

The background to his protest

This has been discussed at length on JustGrounds.

From Janet Thompson on JustGrounds August 2010

A battler, Mr. Szulc, 62, shore sheep and worked the mines, developing his (or what he THOUGHT was his) block of land near Esperance in WA as time and money permitted. He cleared regrowth on his land, most recently 40 hectares of fire breaks, after an injunction was sought by DEC to keep Mr. Szulc from using his property. It was this 40 hectares of firebreak that landed Mr. Szulc in prison.

The department said Chief Justice Martin issued the injunction in October last year after the DEC demonstrated to the court that it had exhausted all reasonable avenues of engagement and regulation to stop Mr Szulc from unlawfully clearing native vegetation on his property.

“The DEC said Mr Szulc had cleared a total of 345 hectares of native vegetation from the property without authority but that it was the 40ha Mr Szulc cleared after the court injunction that landed him in jail.”

 

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9 out of 10 based on 135 ratings

Skeptic win: UK Met Office quietly drops prediction by 20%, hopes no one notices

Joint Post: Jo Nova and James Doogue

The UK Met Office are completely impartial about global warming, and delighted that things are not going to warm as fast as they thought. So to draw attention to the good news they waited to release it on the … quietest possible news-day of the year. Oh. But remembering that they are public servants, they had to settle for the second quietest, and release it on the day before Christmas instead.

These are the people who said the science was settled, and the deniers were wrong, except that it wasn’t and they weren’t.

Unfortunately for the Met boys, the skeptics noticed (h/t Tallbloke and Richard Smith), and now, not only do they have to handle the heat of that partial reversal , now they also have to admit the cheap PR trick backfired — they were caught in a cowardly attempt to hide the news. Busted.  See Bob Tisdale here for very nice graphs.

Graph from The Australian. (Don’t blame me for the decadel’s – sic)

This has been picked up now by Daily Mail, GWPF, Delingpole, The National Post (Canada) and this weekend, The Australian.

Daily Mail

 “To put it mildly, it is a matter of enormous public interest that the Met Office has revised its predictions of global warming, whispering that new data suggest there will be none for the next five years. After all, the projection implies that by 2017, despite a colossal increase in carbon emissions, there will have been no rise in the planet’s surface temperature for almost two decades.  Why, then, did the Met Office choose to sneak out this intriguing information on Christmas Eve, knowing there would be no newspapers the next day?

The Australian

Climate results validate sceptics

Graham Lloyd,

“If the latest Met Office prediction is correct, and it accords far more closely with the observed data than previous predictions, then it will prove to be a lesson in humility,” said David Whitehouse (of the Global Warming Policy Foundation) .

“It will show that the previous predictions that were given so confidently as advice to the UK government and so unquestioningly accepted by the media, were wrong, and that the so-called sceptics who were derided for questioning them were actually on the right track.”

The National Post (Canada) compares it to the sea-change that hit economic theories in the 1970’s

“It’s like Keynesian economic models in the 1970s that kept predicting high inflation would bring down unemployment,” Prof. McKitrick said. “Eventually they were so far off reality that it was no longer a case of trying to fine tune bits that didn’t fit, economists had to admit the underlying theory was wrong and start over.”

Bjorn Lomborg talks of “humility”

“This does not mean that there is no man-made global warming,” said Bjorn Lomborg, a Danish academic and author of The Skeptical Environmentalist. “But it does mean that we perhaps should not be quite as scared as some people might have been from the mid ’70s to about 2000, when temperatures rose dramatically, because they were probably at least partially rising dramatically because of natural variation, just like they are now stalling because of natural variation.”

He called the revised prediction “a return to the humility that we probably should have had right from the start,” and a reminder that the climate is harder to predict than scientists once “naively” thought.[ The National Post]

h/t Gary Mount.

Does that mean Lomborg won’t call us “deniers” now?

Just how flat is that graph?

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9.1 out of 10 based on 131 ratings

Greens say deception, fraud “for the planet” is OK

PR is more important than anything else to the Greens. When Johnathon Moylan fraudulently tricked investors, costing some of them thousands of dollars, Green leaders praise him for “drawing attention” to something. It’s as if stupid punters are so dumb and Green’s brains so Omniscient, that any crime is forgiven in the quest to tell the world a green “fact”. Did Christine Milne think Australians don’t know the Greens blame coal miners for hot days? Did she think that people would hear for the first time that Greens really really don’t like the coal industry and they would suddenly awaken from their stupor and be converts to the cause? Did she think if Green chicanery raised the cost of capital formation in the coal industry, causing that industry to suffer, that everyone else would overlook Green illegality and applaud?

A delusional anti-coal mining activist, Jonathan Moylan, impersonated a bank spokesman and issued a fake media release,  falsely declaring that the bank had withdrawn a $1.2 billion loan facility from Whitehaven Coal because of ”unacceptable damage to the environment.” He created a dummy email inbox to push the deceit further to cause real damage. The story was picked up by some news outlets, and shares fell by 9% before people realized it was fake. Those who want to downplay the seriousness are calling it a “hoax”. The real world knows it is fraud.

Mum and Dad investors who may have sold too cheaply on the “news”, or even faced margin calls, could have lost thousands of hard earned dollars. The share transactions won’t be canceled. In response, two Greens leaders praised the liar.

On Tuesday, Senator Milne described Mr Moylan’s hoax as being ”part of a long and proud history of civil disobedience, potentially breaking the law, to highlight something wrong”. [SMH]

Senator Rhiannon, who wrote: ”Congrats to Jonathan Moylan, Frontline Action on Coal, for exposing ANZ investment in coalmines.”

Greens are crippled by this narcissistic sense of their own giftedness. They thought people would discuss the dangers of coal after this outrageous criminal act; instead people are discussing the danger of The Greens.

How much do the Greens care about the average voter? Not at all. Civil disobedience does not and has never meant doing something that hurts other citizens. (Isn’t it illegal to incite people to break the law?) And let’s remember the bigger picture (cough cough): the Greens are more gifted than the average voter, and the Green burden in life is to lead the proletariat.

Michael Smith says Milne must resign:

Christine Milne still doesn’t get it.   Forgery.   $300Million in financial disadvantage.   A blow to the integrity of our financial system.   But on the ABC’s 7.30 tonight, she’s still praising a prima facie felon.

Go and get some help Chris.   You’ve lost your sense of perspective.   This offender has caused actual, real harm to a financial market that is a fundamental element of our civil society.   No stock market means no investment, much fewer jobs, much more misery.   Moylan’s forgery and deception caused $300M in real damage and who knows how much damage to investment confidence.  And that confidence was further hammered when you as a leader of the Labor/Greens government endorsed his crime.

Milne and Rhiannnon don’t seem to realize that any halfwit with a computer could create a forged press release these days. If it were legal to do such a thing, activists could release fake documents about, say, solar companies, falsely saying that unaffordable government subsidies were being withdrawn, or that some “new” discovery made the whole production line of XXX-solar unviable. Since the renewable industry is utterly dependent on those subsidies, or the belief that it is a techno winner, this would trash the price, and once investors realized that “renewables” share were prone to regular spikes and “hoaxes” soon no one would want to invest in them. How well would this work out for Green investment — which is financial struggling and borderline even with subsidies — unlike the robust coal industry?

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9 out of 10 based on 131 ratings

American Geophysical Union – cheat, deceive, steal, “It’s OK”.

The American Geophysical Union – can it be saved?

Seriously: the 2012 Convention included Mann, Gleick, Lewandowsky, Oreskes and Cook.

If you are one of the 58,000 members, you could ask yourself if you want to be aligned to an organization that thinks “science” means sometimes you need to impersonate someone else, steal their documents, and hide your own data. Is it AGU science if you use algorithms so badly that you could replace your data with a phone book and produce the same result? What if your data is used upside down? The AGU thinks you should speak twice.

Is it the AGU’s idea of “rigorous” if you make headlines out of irreproducible results that use flawed samples, fake data, and issue a press release months before your paper is even ready to be published? Is a sample size of ten in a self-selecting internet poll enough to publish a paper? Do you find out the opinions of one group by interviewing the people who hate them, but then present the results as if you surveyed the first group? Is it OK to call people who disagree with you insulting names? John Cook does, and he was invited to speak as well. Does it bother the AGU that neither Cook nor Lewandowsky can provide a scientific definition for their terms, or even an English one? How about a career built on making ad hominem attacks against senior scientists? Naomi Oreskes fits that bill. She is the Merchant of Doubt, seeding doubt about whistleblowing scientists who are doing their damnedest to keep standards of science alive.

Steve McIntyre was there: see “AGU Honors Gleick”

“Gleick’s welcome back to AGU prominence – without serving even the equivalent of a game’s suspension – was pretty startling, given his admitted identity fraud and distribution (and probable fabrication) of a forged document. Last year, then AGU President Mike McPhadren, a colleague of Eric Steig’s at the University of Washington, had stated on behalf of AGU that Gleick had “compromised AGU’s credibility as a scientific society” and that his “transgression cannot be condoned”. McPhadren stated that AGU‘s “guiding core value” was “excellence and integrity in everything we do” – values that would seem to be inconsistent with identity fraud and distribution and/or fabrication of forged documents, even by the relaxed standards of academic institutions.

Although McPhadren had stated that Gleick’s “transgression” would not be “condoned”, AGU’s warm welcome to Gleick shows that McPhadren’s words meant nothing, because AGU has in fact condoned Gleick’s actions.”

Steve McIntyre

To all the members of the AGU who think the AGU is worth saving, that it has higher standards than this, tell the world, and especially tell the AGU Executive Committee, its Board of Directors, and the President.

To all the members who think this canoe is already over the waterfall, you know what to do. Don’t forget to send a message to the AGU on your way out.

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8.9 out of 10 based on 119 ratings

Donna Laframboise – Secret Santa leak of AR5 Working Group II material

BREAKING:All the files from Working Group II of AR5 are now available just as “ahem” the open-and-transparent-IPCC would want them. There are 661 files amongst 1 gigabyte of material. This includes their meeting in Japan, in Jan 2011 and a year later in San Francisco, and then Buenos Aires, 10 weeks ago.

Leaked — Working Group II drafts

Behind the scenes Donna Laframboise finds that there is a layer of aggressive activists who are privvy to the IPCC drafts process, and actively lobbying. WWF are pushing the IPCC to cite the WWF. They helped create Himalaya-gate where the IPCC ridiculously predicted the end of the massive Himalayan glaciers by 2035, and got caught embarrassingly. Donna’s book showed that “two thirds of the chapters in the 2007 IPCC report included among their personnel, at least one individual linked to the WWF. One third of the chapters were led by an WWF-affiliated author.” Apparently nothing much has changed.

Donna Laframboise writes:

My 2011 book, The Delinquent Teenager Who Was Mistaken for the World’s Top Climate Expert, documents the IPCC’s numerous credibility problems. Among these is the disturbing influence of green activists on what is supposed to be a rigorous scientific body.

The Working Group 2 section of the upcoming IPCC report contains 30 chapters. The third draft of those chapters (known confusing as the Second Order draft internally) has not yet been written, but two earlier versions reside on these sticks. What’s known as the First Order draft runs to 2,465 pages and may be downloaded in full or by chapter below.

The IPCC has confirmed the authenticity of sample documents on these sticks.

Blue data stick zipped, 26 mb – here or here (their meeting in Japan, in Jan 2011)

Gold data stick zipped, 140 mb – here or here (a year later in San Francisco)

Green data stick zipped, 675 mb – here or here (Buenos Aires, 10 weeks ago. )

Read more on her site. (Plus torrent links)

Go to Watts Up to read the reactions. (Plus torrent links)

Josh has a cartoon on Bishop Hill

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8.2 out of 10 based on 73 ratings

Gone Bezerkers. Climate change will turn humans into hobbits

Pay up, or we’ll turn you into a Hobbit! This is what our public science establishment has reduced itself to?

Science fiction writers have infiltrated universities. They’re running amok, and while it’s all very entertaining (thanks for the laughs) some poor sods (like The Express) might think this is actually science.

Mass extinction forecast with 6C temperature rise

HUMANS will have to become like Hobbits to survive the rapid climate change facing the world, a report claims today.

It says that in the past species have coped with a warming climate by turning to dwarfism.This is because food is less nutritious in a warmer world which means that species have to eat more – and by becoming smaller they can cope with food scarcity.The report published by the Climate News Network  also warns that the speed of climate change could lead to mass extinctions partly because many species, form plants to animals, will not have time to adapt.It is based on the work of an international group of 30 scientists looking at the vast fossil deposits in rock strata in Wyoming in the United States, charting the period 55 million years ago when the earth temperature rose suddenly.

One of the clues that these researchers were having a go at us is the name: It’s called the “Bighorn Basin Coring Project” but strangely it was funded by the United States National Science Foundation. Bravo to the satirists posing as scientists, they are putting on an exceptional show of pretending to believe their own material. Dead-pan to the end.

From the ClimateNewsNetwork:

In the next 100 years the combination of more carbon dioxide in the atmosphere and increased temperature could be “catastrophic” for an overpopulated world, according to one of the scientists involved. With food supply drastically reduced, evolutionary forces suggest hobbit-sized humans who needed to eat less would have the greatest chance of survival. These findings are the work of an international group of 30 scientists looking at the vast fossil deposits in rock strata in Wyoming in the US, charting the period 55 million years ago when the Earth’s temperature rose suddenly – as it is expected to do this century.

On that occasion it took 10,000 years for the temperature to rise by 6°C. There were mass extinctions, but the timescale gave some plants and animals time to adapt and move north and south to survive. Many species evolved quickly – dwarfism being one of the most widespread and successful strategies.

What worries the scientists is that this current warming period will take as little as 200 years, if the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change  is correct. This gives many long-lived species, for example trees, no time to evolve and migrate.

Righto. So assuming that human civilization today is equivalent to that of miniature horse-like mammals of 55 million years ago (cue raucous canned laugh track) ... we’ll evolve rapidly into Frodo-like beings. A career in basketball will beckon for anyone over five feet!  E’Gad a terrifying prospect. I need to sit down.

Here’s a wild stab: pretend that the IPCC was not a joke, it didn’t rely on disproven climate models, and we did get a 6°C rise, even then the “hobbit” theory has a few holes.  For one, I imagine the fox-sized Eohippus didn’t have much in the way of managed agriculture, internal combustion engines, irrigation, or mass communication.  I’m guessing that our larger offspring might manage to not-die-off-before-childbearing thanks to the slight technological advantage conferred by the Neolithic, industrial and scientific revolutions.

Will farm animals shrink and plants become less nutritious?

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8.2 out of 10 based on 62 ratings

ABC uses taxpayer money to hide how it uses taxpayer money

Assume for a moment that the ABC was a dedicated team working to serve the public, getting fair rates of pay. Then imagine Australians asked the ABC what salaries they paid their “celebrities”. The ABC team would be happy to provide that list, and surely it could be done in one working day.

Instead the national broadcaster has been hiding those details for two years and has just lost the second appeal. (How much money has it cost to hide the money ABC presenters get?) The ABC gets $1 billion a year from the people of Australia, and it has refused to disclose the details of its $25 million dollar “contractors and consultants” bill, and the salaries of top staff of shows like Media Watch, Four corners, and Mornings with John Faine.

A Freedom of Information request was lodged more than two years ago by the Herald and Weekly Times, seeking access to documents “dealing with salaries, or any payments” paid to program makers working on 13 programs, including those listed above, for the financial year ending 2010.

The BBC was caught paying presenters through personal service companies which allowed those presenters to pay less tax. (Are these the same presenters who advocate “big-government” policies and work to increase tax rates and spend the taxes paid by other citizens? If so, they can hardly pretend they hold an ideological position. Surely this is the definition of “parasitic”.)

The ABC employs 4603 full time employees, and fully 401 of them earned more than $150,000 each. The ABC has wasted taxpayer funds with pathetically weak excuses:

The ABC said the documents it had were exempt from FOI because they were either “program material” or “in relation to program material”.

However, the Office of the Australian Information Commissioner said any connection between the pay documents and program material “is so remote that there is not even an indirect relationship between them”.

The ABC then went to the AAT to appeal that decision but was again unsuccessful.

The AAT first made the finding that the ABC could not exempt documents “in relation to” program material but only the material itself, which could include scripts, lyrics and video footage.

“Taking the argument advanced by the (ABC) to its logical conclusion, there would be no documents held by the ABC that are not at least indirectly related to program-making,” said AAT president, judge Duncan Kerr and member Anne Britton.

The only thing clear in this news is that the ABC is not here to serve the public

Even ABC employees must surely recognise that there is no public benefit in concealing the way the ABC uses funds that the public are forced to pay.

The media is the problem.

Australia would not be in the mess that it is in, if we had true investigative media.

Bad policies would be exposed. Bad governments would not get away with disastrous decisions.

By hiding the voices of half of Australia, the ABC costs us far far more than $1 billion a year.

Source: The Australian (paywalled.)

Sweepstake anyone?

Post your guess – what does Tony Jones earn? John Faine?

8.5 out of 10 based on 117 ratings

To keep politics out of science, scientists need to be more scientific, not more political

Since when was science “political?” Answer: It’s not, but the institutions and bureaucrats who pretend to be scientists are. In the past, partisan scientists would at least try to hide that and keep up the dispassionate persona that marks a seeker of the truth. Now some scientists wear their bias like a badge.

How do we stop the politicisation of science? Not this way. Daniel Sarewitz argues (weakly) in Nature that we need scientists of both political sides in “expert” panels:

The US scientific community must decide if it wants to be a Democratic interest group or if it wants to reassert its value as an independent national asset. If scientists want to claim that their recommendations are independent of their political beliefs, they ought to be able to show that those recommendations have the support of scientists with conflicting beliefs. Expert panels advising the government on politically divisive issues could strengthen their authority by demonstrating political diversity. The National Academies, as well as many government agencies, already try to balance representation from the academic, non-governmental and private sectors on many science advisory panels; it would be only a small step to be equally explicit about ideological or political diversity. Such information could be given voluntarily.

He’s missing the point

“Expert” science panels should only ever be judged by their science not their politics. A successful panel can judge theories by objective criteria: do they predict the world around us, are they strictly logical, and do they have observational evidence (data) to back them up? With so many incompetent professors and meaningless Nobel Prizes, qualifications don’t guarantee ability anymore. The idea that we could ask “experts” how they vote or tally up their donations to political parties is profoundly unscientific. Nature has lost the plot.

If Daniel Sarewitz wants people to perceive scientists as rising above politics, I hate to say the bleeding obvious, but scientists need to actually rise above politics. Scientists need to stop being activists and start holding logic and evidence above all else, and speak cautiously about their ability to predict the world until they can demonstrate their ability to do it.

What we need are not Democrat-scientists or Republican-scientists, we need scientist scientists.

When some scientists are caught hiding declines, honest upstanding scientists need to denounce them. When good scientists don’t speak up about the bad ones, is it any wonder the public assumes that all of science is as corrupted, sick and self serving as every other human institution?

In climate science the self-correcting mechanism of reality takes an age to winnow the trash from the treasure. Billions can be wasted in the meantime. Compare that to the wizards of Silicon Valley whose products are tested day after day. Who cares about the political inclinations of those technologists? It works, or it doesn’t.

When scientists predict that there will be no more snow, and it snows, there ought to be a price. When a scientist can tell us the rains won’t fill the dams and that our cities need expensive desal plants, and he’s proven wrong yet suffers no loss of reputation or stature (or funds), what does it mean to be a scientist? Nothing. The people trashing the reputation of all scientists are the ones who stay silent while charlatans steal the brand-name and good will of science, and get away with profoundly unscientific behavior.

Government science will end up advocating “big-government”

While real science is apolitical, the human machinery of science has been politicized by the funding mechanism adopted since WWII.

Science is an expensive business. The easiest way to get funded is to ask the government– look how many scientists are doing privately funded research. Since scientists are largely dependent on big-government, it follows that they like big-government, and it’s inevitable that science institutions will gravitate towards supporting big-government parties. It only makes it worse that academia is also a big-government culture, and scientists taught in government schools usually graduate from government funded universities (even if they are private, most of the research funding is from government), and go on to work in government funded research, surrounded by other people who’ve traversed exactly the same path. They all sit around in tea-rooms telling each other why “conservatives” are wrong, but they’ve hardly ever met one, let alone had repeated exposure. Some are such political pre-schoolers they think the “Tea Party” is extreme rightwing because they’ve no idea of what a libertarian is. Those who do know keep their mouth shut, lest it give away any politically “incorrect” inclinations. With few exceptions academia is almost a perfect filter for personality types who don’t compete well in the free market, who have no business experience, are not entrepreneurs, and have little inclination to take risks. The dominant culture keeps the other voices silent (read the comments on the Nature article where non-leftie academics don’t dare reveal their political leaning publicly).

Mark Steyn so aptly quoted Kate McMillan:

“What’s the opposite of diversity?

University.”

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8.5 out of 10 based on 78 ratings

Weekend Unthreaded

… 🙂

6.8 out of 10 based on 32 ratings

Al Gore gives Big-Oil-Government a TV Channel and gets $100m in oil revenue

Imagine the hyperventilating headlines: Global warming denier sells TV channel to Arab Oil organisation, pockets $100 million in oil funds. More proof that giant corporate interests pull the strings on the public debate, and that carbon dioxide causes storms, tidal waves, asteroids, and alien attacks!

Skip the Global Hypocrisy Award for 2013 – don’t even bother sending in entries. It’s over.

Al Gore has campaigned for two decades against the evil vice-like grip that fossil fuel polluters have on the media and politics ““The carbon fuels industry — big oil and coal — have a 50-year lease on the Republican Party” (H/t The Telegraph). So the obvious step was for him to spend seven years building a TV empire in order to sell it to an organisation founded, funded and fused with Big Oil.

Al Gore apparently owned about 20% of Current TV (you’ve never heard of it either, right?).

He’s just sold it to Al Jazeera for half a billion: thus giving the Qatari Royal Family more access to US audiences and earning himself a hundred million or so.

But of course, he really didn’t have a choice, the other large offer coming in was from something far more evil and scary than Big Oil, and that was Big Glenn Beck.

It’s true, Al Gore really did prefer Big-Oil’s point of view:

Other suitors who didn’t share Current’s ideology were rebuffed. Glenn Beck’s The Blaze approached Current about buying the channel last year, but was told that “the legacy of who the network goes to is important to us and we are sensitive to networks not aligned with our point of view,” according to a person familiar with the negotiations.

But Al Jazeera just wants to tell the news, right?

While it makes Mr Gore richer, the deal gives Al Jazeera a way to expand its reach in the US. Despite its record of awards and commendations for its international coverage, particularly during the Arab Spring, it has faced an uphill battle in convincing Americans that it is a legitimate news organisation, not a propaganda tool for oil-rich Gulf states or Islamist militants.

Read more at The Independent

8.3 out of 10 based on 71 ratings

Two million years of climate change made us what we are

Bradshaw Art, Kimberley, Australia. This distinctive style of painting disappeared 7,000 years ago.  |  Photo TimJN1

Two million years of climate change has made us human — in a ying meets yang contradiction, while climate change destroyed cultures and groups,  without it, we would not be who we are. The brutal forces of Nature tested our ancestors with droughts, storms, floods and tidal surges, but if the climate had stayed the same, would we have had Bach, Leonardo, and Newton?

At the end of the day, we have a civilization that allows millions of people to pursue happiness without fear that they will die of dysentery, be murdered by marauding barbarians, or lose their children to slave traders.

We are the lucky bastards at the end of a long line of poor sods who struggled and suffered to stay one step ahead of the reaper.

Here are two stories of studies that suggest dramatic effects of climate change on long lost peoples. The second, below, may finally explain the disappearance of the mysterious well developed aboriginal artform known as the “Bradshaw” style.

Rapid changes occurred 2 million years ago

Some swings occurred so fast they happened in “hundreds of years” – as little as 10 generations in the Olduvai Gorge area.

A series of rapid environmental changes in East Africa roughly 2 million years ago may be responsible for driving human evolution, according to researchers at Penn State and Rutgers University.

“The landscape early humans were inhabiting transitioned rapidly back and forth between a closed woodland and an open grassland about five to six times during a period of 200,000 years,” said Clayton Magill, graduate student in geosciences at Penn State. “These changes happened very abruptly, with each transition occurring over hundreds to just a few thousand years.”

It wasn’t a slow progression of climate, or one big change, it was rapid swings back and forward:

According to Katherine Freeman, professor of geosciences, Penn State, … “There is a view this time in Africa was the ‘Great Drying,’ when the environment slowly dried out over 3 million years,” she said. “But our data show that it was not a grand progression towards dry; the environment was highly variable.”

According to Magill, many anthropologists believe that variability of experience can trigger cognitive development.

The changes happened at the same time we started using tools:

“We show that the environment changed dramatically over a short time, and this variability coincides with an important period in our human evolution when the genus Homo was first established and when there was first evidence of tool use.”

Planetary changes drove the climate:

“The orbit of the Earth around the sun slowly changes with time,” said Freeman. “These changes were tied to the local climate at Olduvai Gorge through changes in the monsoon system in Africa. Slight changes in the amount of sunshine changed the intensity of atmospheric circulation and the supply of water. The rain patterns that drive the plant patterns follow this monsoon circulation. We found a correlation between changes in the environment and planetary movement

[Read more at Science Daily: Fluctuating Environment May Have Driven Human Evolution ]

Stop Climate Sameness! If the climate had been steady and unchanging, we would not be what we are.

A study suggests a 1500-year-long ‘mega drought’ killed off original Australians

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8.1 out of 10 based on 63 ratings

Unthreaded

Jan 2 or 3 (depending on where you are).

6 out of 10 based on 29 ratings

Welcome to a Kyoto-free-world: Best use was to show how bad a nanny-state-unfree-market is.

Goodbye to the Kyoto protocol.

How well did those ambitious plans work out?  The government solution that aimed to reduce CO2 emissions by 5% achieved a 58% increase instead. Welcome to Case-Study #224 in Government failure.

Kyoto climate change treaty sputters to a sorry end

“The controversial and ineffective Kyoto Protocol’s first stage comes to an end today, leaving the world with 58 per cent more greenhouse gases than in 1990, as opposed to the five per cent reduction its signatories sought.

From the beginning, the treaty that was adopted in 1997 in Kyoto, Japan, was problematic.

To reduce Greenhouse emissions: ditch the Kyoto protocol

Without Kyoto the US reduced emissions | Graph: Forbes

The big success story in reducing emissions has nothing to do with nanny-state hope-n-change regulation. The US reduced its emissions by 4% in a single year largely because they shifted from coal to gas.

“As a result of increasing use of gas to make electricity, the market share of coal has declined from 48% in 2008 to 43% in 2011 and likely 37% in 2012.  Natural gas will capture approximately 30% of electric generation market share this year, sharply up from 12% in 1990 and 16% in 2000.”

[John Hanger]

  The U.S. achieved approximately 70% of the CO2 emissions reductions targeted under Kyoto (as compared to the 1998 EIA CO2 forecast).  [Forbes]

On a per capita basis, it’s been 50 years since the US produced such low emissions

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8.5 out of 10 based on 73 ratings

What Fiscal Cliff? It’s a fiscal-crack-in-the-pavement.

There is an economic crisis out there, but it isn’t the Fiscal Cliff.

The best summary of the economics I’ve seen comes from Mark Steyn.

The bipartisan Super Committee of Super Friends was supposed to find $1.2 trillion dollars of deficit reduction by last Thanksgiving, or plucky little America would wind up trussed like a turkey and carved up by “automatic sequestration.”

Sequestration sounds like castration, only more so: It would chop off everything in sight. It would be so savage in its dismemberment of poor helpless America that the Congressional Budget Office estimates that over the course of a decade the sequestration cuts would reduce the federal debt by $153 billion. Sorry, I meant to put on my Dr. Evil voice for that: ONE HUNDRED AND FIFTY THREE BILLION DOLLARS!!! Which is about what the United States government currently borrows every month. No sane person could willingly countenance brutally saving a month’s worth of debt over the course of a decade.

I suppose it’s possible to take this recurring melodrama seriously, but there’s no reason to. The problem facing the United States government is that it spends over a trillion dollars a year that it doesn’t have.

I never thought the Australian economy would look good in comparison but figure that we’ve got a population smaller than California and we’re spread across a land almost as big as the whole US. We are the first world quarry next door to China, Japan, and Korea. Sunny, lucky, and fast asleep at the wheel.

Mark Steyn points out that everyone is spending more than they are getting, but the US is better at it.

Generally speaking, functioning societies make good-faith efforts to raise what they spend, subject to fluctuations in economic fortune: Government spending in Australia is 33.1 percent of GDP, and tax revenues are 27.1 percent. Likewise, government spending in Norway is 46.4 percent and revenues are 41 percent — a shortfall but in the ballpark. Government spending in the United States is 42.2 percent, but revenues are 24 percent — the widest spending/taxing gulf in any major economy.

Big western governments are all drunken spenders, pork barreling their way to electoral bliss by quietly printing the money and loudly pretending they might reach a surplus.

Australia had a bonanza treasure-chest to start with (plus a $20bn surplus) and record terms of trade for the last few years. We could have been saving it up big time, with almost no effort. Instead, in a boom, even the worlds greatest treasurer needs more than five years to Ruin Us.

Go Wayne Swan.

The real crisis is hidden under the fake ones

Bread and circuses anyone? The US Official federal debt is $16 trillion dollars, and if that’s not a big enough drama for Hollywood, the blockbuster is unfunded future liabilities which are somewhere between 80 to 200 trillion dollars, and increasing by two to four “$T” per year. The money coming in to “pay” those bills is about $2.5T a year.  There is no arithmetic that makes that work.

If cutting debt by a tenth of a trillion over ten years is a cliff, then balancing the US accounts is a Galactic Black Hole.

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8.1 out of 10 based on 72 ratings