By Jo Nova
The Soothsayers of Weather have come up with a new spooky fundraising term — “Climate Whiplash”. It’s multi-purpose: it’s a handy excuse for their failures at the same time as a plea for more cash.
Essentially the BOM needs more of your money because they’re more wrong than ever before. The same experts that told you it’s just the physics stupid, are now saying that the climate has changed in ways that they didn’t predict, and that makes it harder for them to predict. It’s such bad luck…
Where were their forecasts of “Climate Whiplash affecting their BoM predictions,” thirty years ago?
‘Climate whiplash’ making Australian weather forecasts increasingly unpredictable and costly
7 News
Australians are facing a new climate reality where traditional weather patterns no longer apply, with scientists warning that “climate whiplash” is making seasonal forecasts increasingly unreliable and costly.
The phenomenon has left meteorologists struggling to predict what’s coming next, as one season can bring floods, fires, storms and record heat with little warning.
Sounds like an infinite excuse. The BOM were never able to do seasonal forecasts anyhow and there wasn’t even a “climate whiplash” factor until they needed a new dark marketing term to scare the horses.
Now they’ve got a new $77 million dollar super computer, apparently things aren’t getting better.
Lets just check their past accuracy of the chance of unusually dry forecasts for May rainfall 3 months out : Might as well be random chance. The rain fell where it fell, and the BoM couldn’t tell.
The truth is that the BoM can’t lose what they never had
They were never able to predict Australian seasonal forecasts six months in advance because it’s all dominated by the Pacific Oscillation and they have no idea what drives the biggest weather phenomenon on the planet. The BoM can only guess at the likelihood of when an El Nino will bring a BBQ summer next.
Imagine how different it would be if the BoM could say that 2027 will be a mild year, but 2028 will be a scorcher? Think of the farmers…!
If the BoM bothered to graph their own accuracy of prediction they’d probably find cycles in their ability that came and went with the Pacific and have nothing to do with CO2.
Climate Whiplash is a marketing ploy not a variable of science
The BoM might distance themselves from the “whiplash” hyperbole, and pretend it was journalistic license, but they never complain when the Blob Media sells the full-spooky witchcraft of a new “climate reality”.
The more money we throw at the BOM the worse it gets. Think of the $96 million dollar website makeover everyone hated?
They probably don’t want me to mention that the old website is still there at reg.bom.gov.au (and we want our $96 million dollars back).
In the immortal words of Homer Simpson “I’ve got an inside tip that it’s all a bunch of crap….”
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Loooooooooooong past time for a BIG broom.
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https://www.google.com/search?q=whiplash+tv+series+theme+song&oq=Whiplash+TV&gs_lcrp=EgZjaHJvbWUqBwgDEAAYgAQyBggAEEUYOTIHCAEQLhiABDIHCAIQABiABDIHCAMQABiABDIHCAQQABiABDIHCAUQABiABDIHCAYQABiABDIHCAcQABiABDIHCAgQABiABNIBCTEzNjQ2ajBqN6gCCLACAfEFkqJAOkhhHUI&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8#fpstate=ive&vld=cid:d539eacf,vid:Iajjo6e7QCg,st:0
Nothing changes.
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This funding will no doubt be used to counter sceptical claims against official anthropogenic-climate-change propaganda goes along with another new Australian Government department, the CDC, to counter scepticism of establishment propaganda of “fully safe and effective” medical claims and in particular anti-covid “vaccines” or whatever the next untested experimental “vaccines” they have planned for us for the next pandemic.
As Australia becomes even more censorious and access to the free and open exchange of information is further restricted, I fully expect legal restrictions on scepticism of Official Narratives on climate, compulsory “vaccines” and everything else. We already have all the laws to do this.
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Isn’t the way Leftist “consensus science” (sic) is done is you create the desired “model” (sic) which suits the political objective, in this case catastrophic anthropogenic global warming, and when the data doesn’t fit the model, you alter the data to suit?
Hence the BoM’s practice of “homogenisation” to alter or delete original data that doesn’t suit the model (discussed here by Jo and others many times).
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Part of the perpetual “Solutions in search of problems” cycles.
The only science involved is POLITICAL SCIENCE.
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Eventually they’ll wake up that by dropping their erroneous view that man-made CO2 is the primary driver of so-called climate change, they will obtain a far better (valid and reliable) result.
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How odd are these new names or titles that they come up with. We have had the weird “rain bomb” nonsense for a while. It was formerly torrential rain, now we have Climate whiplash, sounds like trendy titles to hide the very real incompetence of BoM.
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Also, “unprecedented”, even when the event is not.
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I always marvel the phrase “unprecedented since…”
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“unprecedented since…” – a very unique phrase that literally blew me away.
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“Whiplash”:- What zealots do to themselves, and sadists do to others. Both applicable.
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Surely someone will seek funding for a PhD examining whether there is a causal relationship between climate whiplash and climate anxiety. Which there is, it’s a nexus of pseudo-scientists fabricating new catchphrases and disseminating them through MSM. But you don’t need 3-8 years of study and thousands of dollars to see that.
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“But you don’t need 3-8 years of study and thousands of dollars to see that.”
On the contrary, I need the money.
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The ‘atmospheric river’ is a favourite, from the Kimberley to Hobart in one long stretch.
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What is thundery Rain?
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A Thunderstorm.
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And just in time, the Klimate Klouncil has a new report out to promote the term…
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‘Climate Whiplash’ is just the latest way for Climate Inc. to make their null hypothesis unfalsifiable.
That’s faith, not science.
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To understand what the Left are doing here, you just have to again consult their operations manual, Nineteen Eighty Four.
It’s newspeak.
This is doubleplusungood!
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I think BoM weather predictions were quite accurate until maybe 15 or 20 years ago when they changed their accurate tested models to other models more consistent with the Official Narrative on “climate change”. Henceforth predictions became very bad.
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It’s one thing to predict short term winds and clouds and rainfall and that can be hard enough, now that we can see the radar. But to predict long term Climate there is no source data. The atmosphere may contain next week’s weather in transit, but the idea that we can predict what is in the atmosphere means we would have to predict the behaviour of the world’s oceans around island Australia. And we cannot. We don’t even try. We lack the information on 72% of the planet surface which contains 99.9% of incident stored solar heat. But it’s what the politicians want and the politicians pay the wages. Simple.
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TdeF,
Why would you even want to predict it?
Predicting the coming September’s rainfall, or the number of sunny days next January might be useful. Those are weather predictions, and weather matters.
Getting a number for the 30-year-average September rainfall, even if the prediction turns out to have been accurate, is no bleeding use whatsoever.
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Agreed. But it is what they are trying to do, or allegedly trying to do. It’s where the money is.
The fact that humans have not and cannot change the planetary weather systems is obvious. But the whole Net Zero scam is about trying to do so. And it allows politicians to spend Trillions and there is the real power and so the real objective of Climate Change. Power. Electoral. political, monetary. Not electrical.
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‘Why would you even want to predict it?’
It would be an asset for the man on the land to know in advance of drought or flooding rain.
Understanding the behaviour of ENSO would be a great leap forward.
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And an absolute disaster getting it wrong. As 18 months ago when the same BOM predicted the worst, hottest and driest summer in a decade on the Eastern Seabord, farmers dumped huge amounts of stock and did not plant. The cost to the country of what was one of the wettest and most opportune summers in memory was in the billions. Not only lost fortunes but lost fortunes made.
Just understanding when things happen and how much is still not enough to predict the climate consequences with certainty. Pretending to predict Climate is worse than gambling, it is utterly dishonest and damaging and this from taxpayer funded people. Science is not guesswork with the authority of government.
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All heat comes from the sun. All water comes from the ocean. All weather comes from the ocean. All heat is stored in the ocean.
So what do the BOM model for Climate predictions? The air.
But that gets you $77million from the Australian taqxpayer for a new computer. And $96million for a new web site. How much for aboriginal climate advice?
Not science or logic, but nice work. Typical of Canberra. Not my money, not my problem.
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They are probably jealous that without explanation a Californian company received $1Billion of taxpayer ‘investment’ on Quantum Computing which makes Climate Science spending seem reasonable.
It’s like a pot of gold. And who knows when Snowy II passed $20Billion to pump water uphill, losing 40% of the energy. I read they have another giant drill for a project now more expensive than the Panama canal and double the time of the English chunnel.
And no one is accountable to parliament and the taxpayer. Good thing the cash is unlimited for changing Australia’s CO2 and Australia’s climate.
It’s a wonder that China is not suffering more from Climate with 40% of the world’s CO2 and 50% of the world’s steel production.
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I have seen predictions for SH2 that say it could go as high as $40 billion.
Source: The Australian https://share.google/0qMgUpIGPlHZwmuka
(PAYWALLED)
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That would make it more expensive than the English Channel tunnel. Which took only 6 years and is actually useful, a huge human accomplishment, the stuff of dreams. Malcolm Turnbull’s folly is literally monumental stupidity but at what cost!
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TDef, I cannot dislike that bloke enough……..total fool (with OPM).
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They are probably jealous that without explanation a Californian company received $1Billion of taxpayer ‘investment’ on Quantum Computing which makes Climate Science spending seem reasonable.
Inexplicably, any benefit from the massive OPM investment in Quantum Compuding is currently on hold due to wholly and totally unexpected bureaucratic planning issues – which have prevented any actual building and construction from actually starting.
https://nundahnews.com.au/940m-quantum-computer-project-at-brisbane-airport-faces-delays-as-consultation-period-stalls/
Despite the project currently running over a year behind schedule the 2027 startup date hasn’t changed. Quantum mechanics in operation, obviously.
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So the uncertainty and errors in prediction are even worse in Albanese’s random throwing of cash than in quantum computing. But I suspect there was an alterior motive in rescuing a company with a billion in zero questiosn asked cash and for no apparent reason. That’s not even investing. It’s theft without explanation. Cui Bono?
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I remember when their BS used to appear superficially to make sense.
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I remember reading an article once about a test of the methodologies of forecasting the next days’ temperature. After testing a number of different models and methods they found that the most consistently accurate forecast was the one that stated that tomorrows’ temperature would be the same as today’s.
Ergo, using current knowledge and understanding of the weather patterns, forecasting long term weather is a bit like predicting the numbers that will come out of a random number generator.
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>the most consistently accurate forecast was the one that stated that tomorrows’ temperature would be the same as today’s.
Reminiscent of the old Swiss farmer’s weather indicator:
“When the cock crows on the dungheap, the weather will change or stay as it is”.
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But they’ve been pretty good, overall, at predicting dry days over the desert areas…
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Whiplash is nothing less than a propaganda term.
They are wrong so often because they have an agenda of “GLOBAL BOILING”that must fit into their forecasts.
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The trouble is we’re now living in the safest period in Human history and the OWI Data global death rates from all extreme weather events per 100,000 are easy to find from 1900 to 2025.
And 2025 is the lowest year in the record and all deaths are very low since the 1960s.Also see Dr Pielke jr data.
So why don’t they just look up the data? Funny thing is I can’t see any global WHIPLASH over the last 60 years. Why is it so?
https://archive.ourworldindata.org/20260112-111535/grapher/natural-disaster-death-rates.html?country=Flood~Extreme+weather~Wildfire~Drought~Extreme+temperature
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Again,1.6 billion Humans at risk in 1900.
2.5 Humans at risk in 1950.
3 billion at risk in 1960.
8.2 billion at risk in 2025.
Why don’t they just THINK about the data over the last 125 years and WAKE UP?
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Not just the BOM using such terms. India as well:
https://climatefactchecks.org/global-weirding-and-climate-whiplash-the-unpredictable-future-of-the-worlds-cities/
and they managed to include ‘climate weirding’ as well. Double plus good (thanks, Orwell)
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From 2025 link: despite weirding & wobbling & whiplashing & utter wubbish, Key Finding #5
“Tokyo, London and Guangzhou are witnessing more stable weather patterns with fewer extreme events”. Bold mine.
Similar to Australia’s cyclone graph for the last 50 years: the bigger they predict, the less there are. There’s even a new disease classified for it, WAD, Whiplash-Associated Disorder.
They’re insane and desperate – leave them to their silly childish games – it’s called weather.
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Could it be that the BOM – and other meteorological organisations – have been messing about with the true weather values so they can fit the UNCCC algorithm and model that their predictions are unrecognisable?
How is it that all those ‘clever’ scientists cannot see the corruption of data as the reason? Are they ALL cowards? If you cannot predict previous weather patterns with your algorithm, you know it ain’t right. Twenty-five years of this rubbish and the weather in Summer is still hot, the weather in Winter is still cold and Autumn/Spring take care of themselves.
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Whenever I have read or listened to any of the BOM long range forecasts or seasonal outlooks you can generally break them down as “ there’s a 50% chance of it being dry and a 50% chance of it being wet”. I recently heard a she/her BOM “expert” try to summarise our recent past Summer. It was an elongated word salad , but basically said it had been hot and dry. We’re paying these people extraordinary amounts of money to state the obvious.
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Hot and dry?
Not during an Australian summer, surely?
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I went through BoM meteorologist school in 1971. First day or so we were told there was no way to do long range forecasts. Still holds.
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Indeed it does, but I still have faith that Quantum AI will eventually solve the problem of seasonal forecasting.
My guesstimate is for a Modoki El Nino being the next cab off the rank.
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Modoki – same but different?
Hawaii’s Maunakea volcano summit on the Big Island is enduring its 6th consecutive day of frigid whiteout snow blizzard conditions, -12*C when I checked [mkwc].
This time the Pineapple Express is heading northeast to BC, Canada where the locals are enjoying one of the most epic spring dumps of snow since the last time it happened. These climate high priests are too precious, ie. they haven’t got a clue, aka bamboozled.
No complaints here today, the climate is perfect!
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‘Modoki is a Japanese word meaning “similar, but different”. Modoki Niño, also called the Central Pacific Niño, is characterized by changes in sea-surface temperatures in the central, not eastern, Pacific.’ (National Geographic)
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I learned my basic weather/meteorology from my grandfather and father (both schoolteachers and farmers) who taught me which direction rain came from and the type of clouds that preceded a weather event. Years of me taking recordings and general observations confirmed a general climatic pattern that had its minor variations. The ABC weather forecasts in the 60s and 70s were generally reliable and they came from BoM.
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For approximately 7,000 years of indigenous only occupation here seasonal burning tradition was developed and in some areas of WA and NT has been revived using indigenous and other Australian Rangers to light and control.
The cool burns method is based on seasonal weather conditions and burning in patches in rotation of years apart each patch and the prevailing wind drives the cool fire and at the earlier burnt patch extinguishes due to lack of fuel, and creatures escape because they can.
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That sounds very sensible GlenM and would generally agree that older forecasting was simpler and better than at present from the BoM. The real problem with our meteorology came when the climate cult took over in the 1990’s and the UN climate scam was being pushed by environmental activists into the mainstream media.
Once the AGW cult got control with CO2 as the primary climate driver, then the BoM and similar institutions like the Hadley Centre in the UK and NAAS in the US, started manipulating historical data and producing false overwarming predictions using subjectively tuned climate models. Then the whole BoM system that had been reasonably reliable became `bent’ and has been unsatisfactory ever since from the scientific methodology, reporting and their advice to government with the help of the equally climate crazy CSIRO mates.
Their supercomputers won’t help them solve climate forecasts because their inputs are wrong and the key parameters of clouds and water vapour that moderate solar heat and Earth’s IR output can’t be effectively modelled anyway. More money won’t fix this ideological-methodological problem, it’s a political issue that won’t go away until the whole climate scam and false energy transition fails. Hopefully that will occur soon!
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Dr Rosling’s BBC 4 minute “joy of stats” video from 1810 to 2010 also proves that Humans enjoy more health and wealth today.
So where is their dangerous climate change and where are the extra deaths per 100,000 since the 1960s?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jbkSRLYSojo&t=17s
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We know that the Bureau has a credibility issue and it is very embarrassing that they get little right. Nothing seems to have advanced from the days of amateur observers and Postmasters diligently taking down and recording temperature, humidity, wind direction ,barometer and cloud cover, then reporting twice daily. For experts like Watkins this climate ‘whiplash’ confounds them as the notice that weather systems going into reverse and all sorts of anomalous happenings. No point in moaning about it fella – get off your behind and do a bit of work instead of peering into your computer screen.
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Clearly the left hand isn’t talking to the right hand, ie, BOM people aren’t talking to the “Geoengineering” crew doing weather modification experiments with radar, air born aerosols etc.
Anyone who’s wants to call that a mere conspiracy clearly hasn’t done their research, it’s all well documented, including in government legislation. There are many keen weather watchers that report on these things and post images of very unnatural radar anomalies etc that all point to geo engineering manipulating and steering weather systems.
I doubt we’ve had a severe weather event in the last 10-20 years that wasn’t doctored by those trying to drive the Climate alarmism agenda to get more taxes and control.
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The world death rate from fires and burns has dropped steadily from 1980 to 2023.
Population in 1980 4.4 billion and over 8 billion in 2023.
And Australia has lower rates than the other wealthy countries.
So why can’t they look up the data?
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/fire-death-rates?tab=line&country=OWID_WRL~OWID_LIC~OWID_HIC~OWID_UMC~OWID_LMC~AUS~African+Region+%28WHO%29
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I was told the most accurate forecast from 1 to 5 days was 3 days, I havent checked lately!!!!
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Not at Tuross Head, NSW, it isn’t.
There you get five or six different forecasts per day. None of them reflect what happens.
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I recall reading somewhere that the BOM uses a different method to predict El Niño/La Ninas, as compared to other countries. For example, Japan’s predictions seem to be closer to the mark than the BOM’s predictions, which always seem to be wrong.
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Do you remember 2014 Abbott Government received a letter from Dr Jennifer Marohasy and colleagues outlying BoM errors and omissions and related matters including heat sink located weather stations?
The ghosts stopped a motion in Cabinet to conduct an independent audit at the BoM, the Minister did ask then to explain and the reply admitted to those errors and omissions, and stated they would be fixed.
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Thankfully the weather alerts and bright nasty colours have stopped appearing on my mobile phone weather app
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Those of us of a certain age may remember the Australian-American TV series ‘Whiplash’ from the early 60s. Its catchy theme song should be added to the BOM web site.
Fun fact: Gene Roddenberry (Star Trek) was one of the writers.
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Climate whiplash is a pain in the neck.
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The illustration is spot on. I raises the question: where is Cortez with his horsemen when you need them.
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