Paul Hoelen, Mortimer Bay, Hobart, Tasmania
UPDATE: I want to see an aurora, but living at 32S in Perth, Australia, this is like hoping to see the NorthernLights in Jerusalem or San Diego. No luck for me tonight, but there was one report from Geraldton 400km north of us (28.7S). Hopefully sometime in the next year during the solar max…
A quick note to say a CME just hit Earth, and some people may be able to see an aurora tonight that wouldn’t normally see one. A severe Kp 7 Geomagnetic storm is in progress (BOM estimate). Kp 7 is the bottom end of what is classed as a “severe” geomagnetic storm with Kp 8 and 9 being bigger (and even rarer).
Reports on X (Twitter): #AuroraAustralis #Auroraborealis
Southern Hemisphere data — BOM 3 day Geomagnetic Indices | Northern Hemisphere: SpaceWeatherLive
A CME JUST HIT EARTH: However, it might not be the “Big One.” A CME hit Earth’s magnetic field on Dec. 1st at 0021 UT, jolting the USGS magnetometer in Frericksberg, Virginia, by 36 nT. This could be the first of two CMEs en route to Earth. NOAA forecasters expect a significant Cannibal CME (composed of multiple storm clouds) to reach Earth midday on Dec. 1st, possibly sparking strong G3-class geomagnetic storms. Aurora alerts: SMS Text
Space.com –– The rapid Earth-bound CME left the sun on Nov. 29 during a powerful M9.8-class solar flare eruption. But it isn’t alone. The speedy plasma outburst will merge with several slower upstream CMEs that left the sun a day earlier (Nov. 28), creating a “Cannibal CME” that will likely trigger a strong geomagnetic storm akin to a Nov. 5 event that supercharged auroras and STEVE around the world.
Nullschool has predictions for visibility (but has seemed to underestimate the odds lately — people have reported and taken photos from spots that in theory should not be able to see anything.) Hard to predict.
I’m no guru on these things, but I’d love to see one. At 32 South, Perth is usually too close to the equator to see anything.
Update: Data appears most useful at Space Weather Live. Forum discussions here. Magnetometers here. The event is fading now — though still classed as “Severe”. It was southward earlier but the “northward pointing” Bz field now make the aurora less spectacular. But the next year at high solar activity will provide more opportunities…
I’ll have a look! It was mostly cloudy a short while ago, maybe cleared a bit.
Thanks Jo.
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I did look out again. There was patchy cloud to the south and the usual vague light from Melbourne so no aurora to be seen. I’ve never yet managed to see any aurorae in my lifetime; very disappointing.
One of our sons photographed aurorae seen from East Gippsland a while back while our pilot son has seen plenty while flying over or near the North Pole.
We’ve even missed a display seen from Tan Hill Inn in the Yorkshire Dales while living ‘oop North’.
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Annie, I’ll try to give more warning. Apparently these blasts off the sun are very spiky and unpredictable. Even when we see them happening on the sun, we’re not sure when they will hit or the strength and direction until they reach a satellite between Earth and the Sun and then we only get 45 – 60 minutes warning. But that’s enough time to drive for the dark hills — only if we are ready to go…
The NOAA ACE Satellite data is here. While people at high latitudes may get hours of entertainment, those of us nearer the equator really need to catch the peak.
This is the last six days of proton flow…
[caption id="attachment_94539" align="alignright" width="640"]
Low Energy Protons – Electron Proton Alpha Monitor (EPAMp)[/caption]
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But even in the last couple of hours there has been some intense bursts of protons:
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Sorry, accidental red thumb.
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Back in the mid 80s when I was a Scout leader we had a camp on top of a hill near our local airport. The kids finally in their tents and the leaders enjoying some essential refreshment I went to visit the bushes and was astounded to see a pink glow right across the south western horizon! I subsequently found out that it was indeed the Aurora Australis. We are located at 30degS.
I think the problem of urban light pollution and lack of outdoor night life means we no longer experience the wonders of the celestial sky that our ancestors experienced all their lives.
Thanks for the heads-up Joanne.
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Thanks Jo.
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You can subscribe to alerts in the link below, free. I would encourage the use of higher-level settings (I use KP=6), or you will get buried in alerts 🙂
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
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We got to a G3 earlier.
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/
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Comment on SpaceWEatherlive by Jesterface23:
ACE EPAMp is here, and it is indeed still high. So some action may yet happen. The Bz is going negative… (But what do I know?)
EPAMp = Low Energy Protons – Electron Proton Alpha Monitor (EPAMp)
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We had aurora lights in NovoCastria about seventy years ago.
Spectacular.
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I’ve seen the aurora lights from 36° S (Snowy Mountains) decades ago.
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And Bowen thinks he can change the climate. Too much dope smoke in his youth with delusions of grandeur. An aurora is what true grandeur looks like,
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Delusions of adequacy?
Auto
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I wouldn’t hope for auroras in Perth as that will be a severe CME event. The Carrington event in 1859 had auroras almost to the equator. It disrupted telegraph lines – the only electric based system in use then. These days it would be very, very disastrous.
And you must have missed this report in February 2023. Possibly the bright lights in suburbia didn’t help the show.
https://7news.com.au/technology/space/perth-wa-and-beyond-enjoy-stunning-southern-lights-display-for-the-ages-c-9897841
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Graeme, I did miss the Feb one. I’ve been on the Aurora SMS list for a few years, but my emails apparently bounced and they dropped me off the list (another very odd intermittent cyber event I have to solve). 🙁
In any case, the official SMS’s only ever suggest “high latitudes”. It’s only since the Feb event I even realized it might be possible to see one in Perth. I assumed I’d have to drive to Denmark…
And I’ve put in an order for Kp 7 or 8 events, not the Carrington Class.
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Jo,
I’ve ordered some Cartoons by Josh from the UK, with one spare. Would you like one sent to you when they arrive?
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Graeme! I would love one. Thank you.
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While you wait on Australia Post here is something if you aren’t busy. I take it you are at the previous address.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ChSC1iPn5Bw
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Spectacular aurora visible from Port Augusta last night, photos on the SA Weather page on Facebook. Incredible. Nothing here in Adelaide overcast skies.
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Was visible just north of where we are so should have been visible from here I missed it .
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For the record, the action furthest from the poles was during the peak “southerly” spike around 10.00 AM UTC (London time) when the Bz hit -26nT.
That would have been 8-9pm Perth time. 11-12pm Sydney time. Dawn in the Eastern USA.
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Be careful what you wish for… As the terrestrial magnetic excursion continues and our “shield” weakens, even moderate solar emissions can create auroras as ever-lower latitudes.
These all relate to the potential for severe effects on our un-protected electrical society. (Carrington effect.)
The “cannibal” emission was an M-9 flare (over-taking the previous, slower emission) but once we get to the X range, auroras will be the least of our problems.
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When I grew up in Kalgoorlie – Esperance, the Southern aurora was so bright and common, swirling around in the evenings that it was so ho hum. I haven’t seen it in Esperance for 50years or more and I wonder why. There is nothing but the atmosphere between Esperance and Antarctica. But no aurora. Why is that? I will say however, those I saw were not as resplendent as those seen in the Northern Hemisphere these days.
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