Spock (Leonard Nimoy) was warning people about the next ice age coming in 1978:
The world has cooled for the last 3,000 years. The glaciers have expanded. Temperatures have fallen dramatically in the last 30 years. If we are not prepared for the coming ice age, we’ll see hunger and death on an unprecedented scale….
In the documentary below there is footage of the “perilous state of Buffalo” in 1976/77 when it was hit with savage cold and snow (from about 13 minutes in). Today (in 2022) news is coming in from Buffalo, NY which has just had 5 feet of snow fall.
Every 30 years the herd may panic in a different direction…
News cycles follow the natural ones (and the money). So at the depths of the cooling from WWII to the 1970s there were ice-age stories. Then came the warming stories, and the IPCC extrapolates a thirty year trend to infinity…
Graph by Syan Akasofu
hat tip to Climate Depot
The Western New York (WNY) region has not had bitterly cold; it has been about -5C°. Lake Erie has not begun to freeze over. If it does the temperatures can get much lower: On February 14, 2016 the low was -24°C.
It is the open Lake surface that generates the heavy snow — Lake Effect Snow.
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It’s a blast, an arctic blast.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RhCQXZa4SAc
80
And it’s perfectly natural . .
100
It’s a blast from the past.
80
They don’t usually make that much fuss about snow in America
The news clip sounds more like a UK weather report.
When it snows it often dumps a lot in a short time. here’s hoping.
Slows everybody down, looks pretty. Love it.
20
Far too early for that. I live on the north shore of Lake Ontario and it was 3 degrees warmer than a few blocks north.
120
-1 to -4
60
I live at the North Pole and it is very cold. But at Christmas when I deliver all of those gifts, it warms the cockles of my heart.
130
The Left have some bizarre ideas about nature, science, and everything else.
Among these are apparently that nature and the climate are invariant. They think that any variation in climate is abnormal.
However, we know climate has varied enormously in historic times.
For example, civilisation thrived during periods of natural warming such as the Minoan, Egyptian, Roman and Medieval Warm Periods. People and crops love warmth. If the average “eco-warrior” could ever peel themselves away from their basement computer and go outside and enjoy nature, they would know that.
And during actual naturally cold periods such as the Little Ice Age there is famine, war and disease.
China is well aware of the effect of natural climate change over the last 2000 years upon their society. At the link below look at the incidence of adverse events correlated to natural climate change. They likely know that wind and solar won’t get them through the coming likely cold period plus they know they can convince stupid ignorant Westerners to destroy their own economies to China’s benefit while being themselves exempt from what the Left calls “carbon” (sic) emissions.
https://c3headlines.typepad.com/.a/6a010536b58035970c01b8d0f76684970c-pi
That is not say we actually have warming now. Such claims are fraudulent and based on the thoroughly debunked “hockey stick” of Michael Mann plus other fraudulently altered data such as from NASA who have now even deleted the Medieval Warm Period as documented by Tony Heller. See https://realclimatescience.com/2018/12/erasing-the-medieval-warm-period/
Tony Heller also talks about the Hockey Stick (or as one might call it in Yiddish, the Hockey Shtick). https://youtu.be/ul7wmtNrZ2U
In Australia’s case “The Bureau” (not talking about the late Idi Amin’s torture centre in Kampala) regularly alters temperature records in a phony process they call “homogenisation”. They even erased Australia’s entire temperature record from before 1910 although you can’t trust anything after that either due them altering recorded data. What happened before 1910? We had a warm period. That had to go otherwise supposed warming couldn’t be demonstrated.
And is no one aware (present company excepted) that we are 10,000 years into a rare interglacial period which typically only lasts about that long, a pattern repeated for the last 2 million years or so?
The reckless disregard for objective historical and modern data is related to the Left’s ideology which is based on post-modernism which posits that there is no such thing as objective reality. It is whatever you think it is.
Just as politicians shouldn’t be allowed to make engineering decisions, they shouldn’t be allowed to interpret science. Their only worthy use (with a few exceptions) is as experimental test subjects for C-19 “vaccines” instead of animals.
532
Perhaps Australia should ship The Bureau to Europe immediately so they can alter the winter there into a warm spell?
I am sure the inhabitants suffering from shortage of fuel for heating (partly due to EU government incompetence) would welcome a bit of warmth.
280
Should I be skeptical about temperature readings taken in the urban heat areas that have been increasing become devoid of cooling flora over the last 50 years?
40
No wonder the climate alarmists/WEF Marxists are in a panic to cement the climate change hoax before the people find out it is going to get colder rather than warmer. It will be easy to keep Earth’s temperature increase below 1.5 C when the Hudson freezes over.
The core samples that are stored at Buffalo should be guarded night and day as they contain real data which can be compared to real climate change rather than the guesswork of dodgy computers. It is a wonder the communists in the US have not destroyed them since they tell a different story to the preferred narrative.
30
An entertaining youtube video about ice ages, just stumbled across it today:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yze1YAz_LYM
74
A very good video.
61
But I think he attributes the impact of CO2 to be greater than it really is.
81
Agreed. And I also think he is wrong about SLR.
50
I suspect that he was still working under the premise that the effects of CO2 were a linear function of the CO2 concentration, not the logarithmic function of the concentration that it’s been shown to be.
30
Yes, very good video because he further highlights that with all the variables that go into influencing the final weather patterns that we actually get it is impossible to know what the effect of any one thing will be and therefore impossible to accurately define the end result.
As Dan points out around the 15min20sec mark since the glaciation some 5million years ago over the last 1 million years there has been a steady and continuous drop of the earth’s average temperature. The variations of hot/cold temps have become greater as the glaciation activity has intensified then along comes man made carbon and we currently find ourselves “…living in a relatively warm period of what is an incredibly cold period of earth’s history”.
While we are having an impact on climate the actual impact result can not be even guessed at given all the other influences, earth wobble, sunspots, ocean currents etc any one of which may either inadvertently or by design become a counter balance.
Earlier in his talk Dan, for me, is a bit too dismissive of other climate influences such as volcanic eruptions which he includes in the category of just “noise” that we live with i.e. minor and insignificant impacts. OK so volcanic eruptions account for “insignificant” CO2 releases therefore just noise. My challenge would be however the recent Tongan eruption and rather than dismiss it as noise dig down into what its greater impact may be.
The amount of water that it put in the atmosphere which (it seems) has fallen almost exclusively on the eastern seaboard of Australia has saturated the ground to such a depth and extent that this summer while the sun may be shining as hot or hotter (because of global warming) than it has the summer breezes will not be warmed as quickly or to the usual high temperatures because they will be cooled by the cold (wet/saturated) land that they blow over.
What overall and longer term impact is this going to have on other elements of “noise”? Like the long term effects of the inoculation you gotta live long enough to discover them. Dan’s comment that the life cycle of species is some 3million years before extinction makes me wonder if our CO2 manmade air conditioner hasn’t maybe extended our extinction by a few hundred or thousand years.
70
Looks interesting Mikky.
I will watch more later.
For some reason everything I watch now features a political ad by the Greens. Is anyone else having that experience?
71
Are you in Vicdanistan PeterC?
I get general ads for the Lib/Labs (far more for Labs than Libs) but I get Teal ads for my particular seat. Have not seen any Green ads at all on my YouTube.
41
Likely a consequence of targeted promotions by the Green corporate controllers of the “independent teals” (aka cyanophytes)- the likes of Simon Holmes à Court and Mike Cannon-Brookes whose real interest is profit from the mining of critical minerals (eg cobalt, lithium, nickel and silicon).
71
In SA, where we’ve had a change(?) of government, I don’t get those sorts of ads. I by-pass them by downloading the Youtube to read (and delete) at leisure.
70
He is entertaining but off the mark. He is one of those crazy CO2 zealots.
The atmosphere was much heavier during the Cretaceous period. I can guarantee that 150,000ppm more oxygen will have greater bearing on surface temperature than 1700ppm of CO2. That is why the oceans were warmer. Absolutely nothing to do with CO2.
The recent intensifying of glaciation over the past 2 million years follows the rise of the Panama Isthmus that shut off the tropical flow from Atlantic to the Pacific. This intensified the Gulf Stream that we see today taking lots of tropical heat up into the sub-arctic region:
https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/ocean/surface/currents/orthographic=-62.05,29.41,1067/loc=-73.375,36.260
Only the airflow now makes it across Panama:
https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-84.20,5.52,1067/loc=-82.716,11.949
Earth is already into the current cycle of glaciation but the CO2 demonisers are so myopic that they are misinterpreting what they are observing.
There will be snowfall records being made across the northern land masses for the next 5000 years.
80
‘The recent intensifying of glaciation over the past 2 million years follows the rise of the Panama Isthmus.’
Agreed, the drought in Africa forced our ancestors to climb down from the trees and scavenge for food on the savanna. It was the birth of humanity.
Also with the joining of north and south America the Atlantic became saltier than the Pacific. What I don’t know is why the glaciation cycle go from 40,000 years to 100,000 years?
10
NH snow cover this year.. (blue lines are +/- 1 sd)
82
oops, … that’s North America snow cover. not NH.
43
The introduction in the 16th century from South America of the potato saved Europe during crop failures of grain brought about by cold. The potato is also far more productive than wheat per unit area of land and reversed population decline in Europe.
161
11th Feb 2007, Tim Flannery (science communicator & activist)
July 1919 & 20th November 2022, Hanrahan (farmer & realist)
161
Flannery should be held responsible for his wrong advice. Billions of dollars wasted on wind, solar and desalination plants plus people built on flood plains thinking there would be no more floods.
How could one person be allowed to make such a monumental decision, probably Australia’s most expensive mistake ever, with no oversight or peer review of any kind?
351
Peer review? It would be near impossible to find someone with so little qualification to pronounce on the weather or any science at all. As he said of the Hot Rocks scheme which sank at least $98Million of public money, ‘the technology is straightforward’. How would Tim Flannery know? A degree in English made him a technologist?
None of Gillard’s Climate Council had any qualifications at all in the weather, let alone a humble meteorologist. There are 500 meteorologists in the BOM but no one could find one for an all powerful Climate Council? One engineer was Green simply because she proposed burning steel radial tyres in a steel mill.
Like the attack on the Scottish enlightenment, blaming the people who stopped slavery for the fact of slavery, the attack on our power systems is a political attack coming from the Universities. Facts are irrelevant in Post Modern fact free Flannery science or even sociology. And Marxism is good for you, fair, just and stops global Warming. Just ask Grumpy Greta. And forget about the mass deaths, under Mao, Stalin, Pol Pot. Facts just make a mess of a good story like man made Global Warming.
290
Here is the 2007 ABC source of exact quote from Flannery – in his second reply to Sally Sara down the page.
Interview with Professor Tim Flannery Reporter: Sally Sara First Published: 11/02/2007
https://www.abc.net.au/local/archives/landline/content/2006/s1844398.htm
Also a link to his 2004 “Perth Will Die” article in The West Australian.
http://www.warwickhughes.com/water/twa25jun.gif
Marvellous stuff
140
“Perth will die says Top Scientist” Top scientist? How was that decided? And by whom? Perhaps he will win the next Nobel prize for dead wombat studies? No chemistry, no physics, no mathematics, no geology, no engineering, no biochemistry, no microbiology, no genetics, no computer science and zero meteorology. That leaves no room for bottom scientists.
40
Good idea to ignore the last 20 years of data, but then, that would falsify your narrative.
334
Here is the last 40 years of data.
71
https://i0.wp.com/www.drroyspencer.com/wp-content/uploads/UAH_LT_1979_thru_February_2021_v6.jpg?ssl=1
Links are not working on my iPad.
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As anyone can see, the slight warming has come at distinct points, that just happen to coincide with major El Nino events. 😉
Near zero trend from 1980-1997,
Zero trend from 2000-2015,
And a negative trend since 2016
No warming for 38 or so years of the 43 years of satellite data.
This is NOT warming by atmospheric CO2. It is NOT human caused.
201
The post does not ignore the data. The problem is that climate modellers and clearly you are misinterpreting the data.
There has been mass delusion due to the fad of looking at anomalies rather than actual temperature.
The fact that the Arctic and sub-arctic regions have an alarming rise in temperature should be ringing alarm bells that glaciation is now clearly under way.
It would be obvious if the actual temperature was looked at rather than the anomaly. The vast amount of warming in the Arctic and sub-arctic region is occurring in the middle of winter when there is little to no sunshine. That can only happen over land if there is more latent heat advection that results in snowfall. More snowfall means it will eventually accumulate again as more land gets permanently covered. So far that is clearly occurring in Greenland:
https://kenskingdom.files.wordpress.com/2022/10/greenland-monthly-sqkm.jpg
By mid century, most elevated land between 55N and 75N will be accumulating snow again.
Glaciation is energy intensive. At its peak the oceans drop 70mm per year – that is a lot of net evaporation. That means the relatively small area of land accumulating ice must accumulate close to 1m in elevation EVERY year. So during the peak ice accumulation the peaks will cool by up to 1C/century. On average the oceans drop 130m and the land increases elevation 260m so give a difference of almost 400m resulting in lower average land temperature due to the lapse rate. The land gradually cools down as the ice accumulates and surface elevation increases.
“GLOBAL WARMING” is not global. The Southern Ocean and Antarctica have cooled throughout the satellite era – due to the precession cycle and reducing solar intensity in the Southern Hemisphere. The Nino34 region that indicates the Pacific oscillation has cooled slightly in the satellite era; the past 40 years.
The northern hemisphere has started to warm and will continue to warm until the next ice mountains emerge. That process only shuts down when the newly formed glaciers start calving at sufficient intensity to cool the northern ocean water.
This is the first glaciation in recorded human history. We are in historic times and it is so sad that incompetent sods have misinterpreted what they are observing because they are desperately clinging to the notion that a trace gas can alter Earth’s energy balance. These clowns need to go outside; look up at those big fluffy things and attempt to understand how they come about.
271
Rick. Here is what UAH shows for “NoPol” this century. https://ibb.co/9cnmM9S
Where is this warming you are talking about ?
41
This is for the Greenland plateau:
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2022/11/19/ap-cop-27-article-grossly-misrepresents-global-energy-and-emissions-reality/
If you look at the minimum temperature for 55 to 75N from 110W to 40E (the land surrounding the North Atlantic), it is rising at a rate of 4.4C per century. That can only occur through latent heat advection from the ocean that results in more snowfall.
The northern hemisphere snowfall will set records for the next 5000 years.
51
Correct image link:
https://i0.wp.com/wattsupwiththat.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/Screen-Shot-2022-11-17-at-9.35.21-am-1668890594.0333.png?fit=785%2C321&ssl=1
31
Excellent analysis Rick.
Why can’t our “scientists” at the CSIRO, “The Bureau” and other “climatologists” worldwide know that?
I think you need to write to the PM with a registered letter and also copy to the heads of CSIRO and The Bureau.
61
‘Good idea to ignore the last 20 years of data …’
According to the WMO there is still a lot of seasonal snow and I’ll remind you that 30 years is regarded as climate.
‘The researchers found that there has been little reduction in snow mass over the 40 years in the Northern Hemisphere when looking at the annual maximum amount of snow at the turn of February-March.’
40
NH Winter snow is actually increasing.
https://ibb.co/Z29kv7y
50
The fact that snowfall is increasing is only part of the story. It is when it starts accumulating again that it will make a real difference. Extrapolating the current rate of warming in the Arctic and sub-arctic region, accumulation will be apparent by 2050.
20
“30 years is regarded as climate.”
A number pluck from their nether regions.
Useful for the period of the upward leg of the AMO, starting at the COLDEST year around the late 1970s
As the AMO turns downwards.. will they try to change the period used 😉
60
‘A number pluck from their nether regions.’
Its also half of the 60 year cycle found in ice cores and shallow sea cores
30
Seriously.. ! What you posted is NOT data.
It is an agenda-driven hodge-podge of manic mal-adjustments of urban-tainted surface measurements.
Here is what the real unadjusted non-urban data for USA looks like.
Absolutely no warming at all. !
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And Australia, last 17 years…
again.. no warming.
90
Or you could do what you do and ignore the last 10,000 years .
Which show the Earth is very much on the COOL side…
… only marginally above the coldest period in those 10,000 years.
80
A little bit of digging reveals that this chart is from a post of Jo’s in 2009. The alleged ‘paper’ no longer exists, nor does the the proceedings from the Heartland Institute’s ‘conference’. The author’s guessimate is horribly wrong, the 2000 – 2020 period has actually followed the IPCC forecast. Jo scores an own goal, science wins again.
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“2000 – 2020 period has actually followed the IPCC forecast”
A complete nonsense statement.!
The IPCC did not forecast no warming from 2000-2015..
They did not forecast the 2015/16 El Nino
They did not forecast the cooling since the El Nino
Their forecasts are WILDLY WRONG against any real data..
Only against their own manically manipulated urban data are they remotely correct.!!
61
LOL. Global temperature warming trend was +0.2 degrees Celsius over the 2020 – 2020 period.
https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/climate-at-a-glance/global/time-series/globe/land_ocean/1/10/2000-2022?trend=true&trend_base=10&begtrendyear=2000&endtrendyear=2022&filter=true&filterType=loess
16
But it was NOT a straight line, was it.
I repeat, since your comprehension level seems very low today….
The IPCC did not forecast no warming from 2000-2015.. as your chart shows.
They did not forecast the 2015/16 El Nino.. which shows on your chart
They did not forecast the cooling since the El Nino.. which shows on your chart
WOW.. talk about hitting an own goal.. 🙂
…. you have managed 3 in a row !! 🙂
40
Actually the zero warming phase, that was not forecast by the climate fools.. starts in 2002. goes right up to the 2015 El Nino
Show us where they forecast the cooling trend for the last 6 or so years. 😉
20
And do you seriously think the IPCC warming on that chart is going to occur!
Their climate forecasts so far have been totally abysmal, a complete joke !
20
Then of course, you need to show that the slight El Nino warming step (the ONLY warming in the last 20 years)…
…. was caused by humans, rather than the sun.
If you can’t do that, then we can conclude that the data shows that there has been ZERO human forced global warming in the last 20 years
01
And if you change your data to go from 1996, we see that they are using the much manipulated and fabricated URBAN data of GISS.
1998 should be just a fraction below 2016, and far above current levels.
GISS is KNOWN to be faked agenda-driven non-data..
Don’t use it if you want to be taken seriously !!
30
According to NOAA’s dataset, global temperature and ocean SST have been in a cooling trend for eight years.
https://c3headlines.typepad.com/.a/6a010536b58035970c02a308e14d5b200c-pi
20
Yeah, I was wondering if anyone else would notice that. Also just following the trend line would tell you that things were changing and changing faster than previous measurements (also not shown) would suggest
23
“changing faster than previous measurements”
GHCN has certainly been changing the raw data quite quickly, haven’t they.. ! 🙂
And all those urban and airport sites , smeared over rural areas.
Totally unfit for any real measurement of a changing climate
Then the manic cooling adjustments of past temperatures.
In reality, the only warming of the last 43 years has come at non-human forced El Nino events
39 out of 43 years show a basically ZERO TREND.
Apart from data tampering, you have yet to show any human influence on global temperatures in the last 43 years.
Certainly you have been totally incapable of showing any warming effect by human CO2.
You have been asked many times to produce scientific evidence, but you still have been totally unable to do so.
To quote Ian Plimer..
30
‘ … things were changing and changing faster … ‘
Nothing untoward, we have been climbing out of the LIA and CO2 does not cause global warming. If we had a chart of TSI back to 1880 it would clear up the confusion.
https://chaac.meteo.plus/en/climate/climate-diagram-large.png
10
I think you need to be aware that the graph you posted does not match historic data from many areas.
Basically the whole of the NH was pretty much the same temperature during the 1930s,40s as now.
South Africa shows a similar pattern, and in Australia there were many record temps set in the 1930s (eg Sydney, 1934 record only broken by a phantom AWS spike of some sort, a few years ago)
Australian data also shows the period around 1880-1910 being much warmer.
Also a lot of the data used in the fabrication of that graph is heavily affected by urban warming as well as unwarranted adjustments.
20
Much appreciated.
‘Australian data also shows the period around 1880-1910 being much warmer.’
I see a Gleissberg Minimum in South Africa.
00
More Data from South Africa.
10
ps,
The attached graph is a much more likely reconstruction of global temperatures than the agenda-driven, urban-dominated, highly-adjusted GHCN graph.
20
Climbing out of the LIA.
https://spot.colorado.edu/~koppg/TSI/Historical_TSI_Reconstruction.png
10
Instead of Australia throwing away billions of dollars on fake climate change (wind and solar subsidy farms) for the sole benefit of billionaire subsidy harvesters, Australia should have drought proofed and flood proofed the country with dams and irrigation schemes including the irrigation of present desert areas to restore them back to the rich vegetation they had 10,000 years ago.
280
For the record, the NSW government policies have encouraged renewable generation investment and government facilitates. Do you have any figures on actual government subsidy?
There has been a lot of effort put into water conservation within the Murray Darling Basin, but now that floods have returned they won’t be spending money on dams.
72
In Australia “renewable” subsidies come from government in various forms but most subsidies come from actual electricity consumers who now pay about three times what they once did for electricity. So about two thirds of the electricity bill goes as a subsidy to owners of unreliables.
140
Good point and of course direct government subsidy when wind and solar operations become unprofitable.
70
And it is government policy that forces consumers to buy expensive electricity made with unreliables. Unreliables wouldn’t survive in a free market.
120
The term subsidy is misapplied. It is better described as government mandated theft. No one would actually choose to contribute to their neighbours’ rooftop solar or the subsidy farmers wind turbines and solar panels but most are unknowingly contributing through their electricity bills.
And as David rightly points out, it is not just what is identified as “subsidy” but includes all of the added cost the intermittent generation imposes on the network. All that free energy from South Australia eroded the economics of dispatchable generators in Victoria. When Hazelwood closed, prices shot up. One turbine shut down permanently at Liddell this year and prices went through the roof.
The guaranteed output of wind and solar will always be ZERO. So there can never be a reduction in dispatchable generation. Coal and nuclear are predominantly base load so they do work well in combination with intermittent generation. Gas is an expensive fuel compared with coal. Batteries are horrendously expensive source of power.
Then there is the massive increase in transmission and distribution costs to deliver intermittent power from remote locations. Then there is the added cost of maintaining voltage and frequency with a whole new market set up to manage this aspect. Then there is the added cost of managing the complexity of a volatile grid where the main game is to maximise profits in a very complex environment.
120
Rick:
The MAIN GAME is based on the idea that there is an unlimited amount of money from the general public, so electricity prices can continue to rise indefinitely.
Much the same thinking as in France in 1789.
110
“Batteries are horrendously expensive source of power.”
ummm.. Rechargeable Batteries are not really a source of power..
You have to put power from somewhere else into them, to get somewhat less power out of them.
80
You should learn the difference between power and energy.
Batteries are a source of POWER and can deliver that power until the stored energy is exhausted. They store energy but do not create that energy from another source.
60
But the source of that energy to create that short dose of power is somewhere else…. not the battery.
The battery is a storage device….. like coal, or gas
51
The source of the power is the battery from the stored energy contained in the battery. The battery requires no other source to deliver power. It does rely on an energy source to recharge it but POWER IS NOT ENERGY. ENERGY IS THE TIME INTEGRAL OF POWER.
20
In a normal household battery it is the embodied energy of the chemicals in the manufacturing.
Where does that energy in a rechargeable battery come from ?
It doesn’t magically “recharge” itself.
31
https://harpers.org/archive/1958/09/the-coming-ice-age/
30
The modellers have come up with teleconnections between a marine heatwave and the North Atlantic Warm Hole, which is just a cold blob of fresh water south of Greenland.
https://climateimpactcompany.com/u-s-medium-range-forecast-colder-east-2-2/
20
The current cycle of glaciation began 600 years ago. That is when the evaporation over the extensive temperate region of the Atlantic Ocean reached its minimum in the current precession cycle. The moisture level over this region will increase for the next 9000 years.
This is increasing the atmospheric moisture over the North Atlantic ahead of the northern autumn and winter cooling. That results in more latent heat advection into the Arctic and sub-arctic region; meaning more snowfall.
The clear evidence of this is the increasing minimum temperature over the land when there is little to no sunshine:
https://i0.wp.com/wattsupwiththat.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/Screen-Shot-2022-11-17-at-9.35.21-am-1668890594.0333.png?fit=785%2C321&ssl=1
Extrapolating this trend gives around 2050 as the year when the elevated land in the region 55 to 75N will be accumulating snow again.
The persistence of snow on Greenland has been increasing throughout the satellite era with the area of exposed land gradually reducing despite the Arctic water temperature increasing:
https://kenskingdom.files.wordpress.com/2022/10/greenland-monthly-sqkm.jpg
What I love about this is that the rapidly rising temperature in the Arctic Ocean has been misinterpreted by the incompetent clowns looking at climate models.
The Gulf Stream will also intensify to carry more of the tropical and sub-tropical ocean heat into the sub-arctic region to power up the water cycle well into winter.
80
Back in the day, it was proposed tp spray carbon particles (note to Leftists, I mean actual carbon, not CO2 which you call carbon) onto advancing glaciers and polar regions. The theory was the carbon would absorb infrared from the sun and cause the ice to melt.
I wonder if it would really work?
It certainly sounds more plausible than building windmills and solar panels to fight the climate.
80
Until the next snowfall perhaps?
50
Note that warmists and historical falsifiers are now trying to discredit everything about earlier concerns of an upcoming global cooling.
It is catastrophic global warming all the way.
See this highly biased article:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_cooling?wprov=sfla1
The reality is that we are in fact coming to the end of a rare interglacial, the established pattern of the last million years or so and driven by well understood Milankovich and solar cycles, not trace gases.
130
I meant the last two million or so years.
51
According to Wikipedia there was no cooling from 1939 to 1977. Funny that!
80
The Younger Dryas period ( about 12 800 years ago) should be a warning to anyone calling themselves a climate scientist. The warning should be that cold periods on Earth are far more severe to life than warm periods. All we need is a comet to return and collide with Earth and hey presto, instant mini ice age and almost complete death to any living creature on this earth, including humans. Big volcano eruptions have a similar but somewhat smaller effect. I’ve just viewed a series hosted by Graeme Hancock called “Ancient Apocalypse”, which mentions that Younger Dryas period a lot. How humans survived that event is quite outstanding. The present predictions of adverse weather by “climate change” seem almost juvenile in comparison.
80
The YD had no impact on the Southern Hemisphere.
‘Temperature reconstructions from Tasmania, based on both chironomid and pollen data, show no evidence for Younger Dryas cooling. By contrast, there is evidence for cooling associated with the Antarctic Cold Reversal, from Tullabardine Dam pollen data and the sediment organic content from Eagle and Platypus Tarns in Tasmania.’ (John Tibby 2012)
10
I do have a reasonable explanation for the Younger/Dryas episode.
The episode started after the last glacial maximum. The sea level had risen by about 40m from its depths. Baffin Bay to the west of Greenland was predominantly ice at the deaths of glaciation. After 40m of SL rise, the glacier broke free from its grounding and started to move south. During the move, it exposed a lot of water that warmed up and caused Greenland and the Arctic to rapidly warm.
The big berg eventually grounded at Davis Strait. to dam Baffin Bay that iced up again causing minimum temperatures over Greenland and Arctic Ocean to collapse again as there was no longer exposed water on the western side of Greenland.
The average temperature of the Greenland plateau cannot exceed 0C in the present era because it is an ice mountain. So any observed warming is all to do with the minimums and that only increases through latent heat advection.
The great lie is to just observe temperature anomalies. Greenland plateau is warming dramatically. The minimum temperature on the Greenland plateau is increasing at 3C per century starting from MINUS 25C in 1950. In 30 years time the minimum will be MINUS 22C. That is an alarming rate of rise but only if you are worried about ice accumulating.
I call this is the Big Baffin Bay Berg theory. I expect the Younger/Dryas was centred around Baffin Bay.
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Are we talking about the The Bølling–Allerød interstadial? This warm period ran from 14,690 to 12,890 years before the present (BP).
A classic example of a bipolar seesaw, the Southern hemisphere with the its ACR which brought constant westerly winds to Southern Australia.
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Hancock refers to himself as being controversial because he hasn’t an Archaeologist/Geologist type background. Just a journalist with a bent. Certainly the series mostly centred on northern hemisphere cultures. A lot of those cultures have one thing in common. They have a fable or story passed down of a great flood. So similar to the biblical Noah’s ark flood scenario. These events also have some grounding in conventional science via dating of soil layers. Your explanation could also fit it in nicely. Hancock has another theory, not too preposterous that could hold water (so to speak). Watch it on Netflix, I found it really entertaining.
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Ross:
There was the drowning of Doggerland and the flooding of the Black Sea (which may have caused early agriculturists to spread westward into Europe).
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‘The Antarctic cooling precedes the Younger Dryas by at least 1.8 kyr. This suggests that northern and southern hemispheres were in anti-phase during the Younger Dryas cold event. A further result of the synchronisation is that the long-term glacial-interglacial increase of atmospheric CO2 was not interrupted during the Younger Dryas event and that atmospheric CO2 changes are not necessarily dominated by changes in the North Atlantic circulation.’ (Blunier et al 1997)
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‘Big volcano eruptions have a similar but somewhat smaller effect.’
Not entirely true, the Samalas eruption in 1257 was five times more explosive than Pinatubo and ushered in the LIA.
Also, Takahe in Antartica brought the world out of glacial conditions, erupting for 192 years from 17,748 to 17,556.
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Yes, but mostly true. The YD event was cataclysmic in its effects in comparison, particularly as it was associated with a huge flood. But, we dont know the true extent because an incredibly high proportion of the worlds then human population was exterminated in a weeks/ months time frame. It was a true Apocalypse.
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The comet killed off the North American megafauna and the Clovis people, but by this time people were already in Australia. Our megafauna went extinct much earlier and not by the hand of man, more likely a geomagnetic excursion played a role.
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The Adam’s Event wiped out the Australian megafauna, Tim Flannery is totally wrong in thinking humans were involved.
‘One of their first clues was that megafauna across mainland Australia and Tasmania went through simultaneous extinctions 42,000 years ago.
“This had never seemed right, because it was long after Aboriginal people arrived, but around the same time that the Australian environment shifted to the current arid state,” says Prof. Cooper.’ (UNSW)
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In 1978, I was 26 years young and I knew SFA. Now, and I will be 70 years young tomorrow, and I know a heck of a lot more and so does this Planet. But the ‘Pollies’ still have NFI. We need to Crash and Burn and rise like the Phoenix before things get back to normal……………………………
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I keep saying this, the actions of politicians should not simply be ascribed to ignorance, especially those in executive position. They know exactly what they are doing. They’re just not being honest about why.
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Steve of Cornubia –
I keep saying this, the actions of politicians should not simply be ascribed to ignorance, especially those in executive position. They know exactly what they are doing. They’re just not being honest about why.
I keep saying this, the actions of politicians should not simply be ascribed to ignorance, especially those in executive position. They know exactly what they are doing. They’re just not being honest
about why.Maybe more complete?
Auto
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That Nimoy Ice Age video also shows a young Steven Schneider talking about the problems and he became one of the leading alarmists for Global warming in 1990 and up until his death a few years ago.
But we can say that Temperature always leads co2 in the ice core studies and sometimes by many thousands of years. See Petit et al and the Royal Society and even the Conversation and Vostak ice cores etc that I’ve linked to many times.
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Just like modern day socialists, the National Socialists were similarly obsessed with “renewables” and “climate change” 80 to 90 years ago. Fortunately the forces of goodness destroyed their evil regime.
See the following references.
https://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2017/07/the_nazi_origins_of_renewable_energy_and_global_warming.html
http://en.friends-against-wind.org/realities/how-renewables-and-the-global-warming-industry-are-literally-hitler
Book: Green Tyranny: Exposing the Totalitarian Roots of the Climate Industrial Complex by Rupert Darwall
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Meanwhile on Their ABC, it is reported that one third of Pakistan is flooded due to “climate change” and melting Himalayan glaciers.
Satellite analysis shows the actual area flooded to be ca. 9% and the flooding followed three el Nina events – not due to meltwater.
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I think they have now admitted that they were incorrect, or something.
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Well it’s a claim repeated in many stories that still stand uncorrected, or only partially reworded to remove reference to glaciers but still pinning the blame on the usual bogeyperson. A cursory search just now brought a number of reports, including the top story dated 11 October:
“Scientists say climate change no doubt helped swell monsoon rains this summer that dumped three and a half times the normal amount of rain, putting one-third of the country underwater.”
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The old argument was burning coal caused global cooling.
https://duckduckgo.com/?q=The+world+is+burning+more+coal+than+ever&t=h_&ia=web
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Ice ages occur every 100k years or so. At the moment we are basically about halfway between ice-ages- hence, at the warmest period. That warmest period is probably 5-10 k years. But , of course with huge natural variations within that trend, as observed with most natural phenomena. So, that means we are descending slowly into the next ice age. Because the trend would appear to be that you exit ice ages swiftly, but descend into ice ages rather slowly. All of that is unaffected by CO2 levels, natural or man- made. Give me a warm period any day. Compared to the LIA, what I have lived through is glorious.
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I understood the intervals are approximately 150 years?
The last (Little Ice Age) ended around 1850.
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No, I am talking about the real Ice Ages. When huge ice sheets descended down from the poles and covered most of Northern Europe and North America. They occur on a 100k year scale .
20
So, in Australia we have CSIRO leading the field in climate modelling and would be the main advisory body for government policy. There appears to be some law within government, that if CSIRO provide “science”, then that science is indisputable. Which, is highly disputable. Have a look at the chart in this article and the red area of the “IPCC prediction”. That area encompasses all the prediction of all the climate models worldwide, including those from CSIRO. The CSIRO model predictions are some of the worst performers, way too hot. Yet, for some reason those in government still use them as a guide for Australian energy policy. CSIRO recently published their GENCOST estimates for costings all forms of electricity generation. Again, all based on false assumptions and variables and so all WRONG in concluding that solar/wind are cheapest forms of generation. Dr Michael Grose from CSIRO issued a statement recently announcing that future climate trends cannot be predicted based on past history. But, he would say that wouldn’t he? Because he and his employer are receiving huge government largesse to support their almost useless models. They’ve had about 25 years to get them right. They have failed, so isn’t it time to maybe use some alternative theory? That just seems basic science 101 to me and is not disputable.
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Ross
A link please?
But I’ll take a punt that, if you highlight the CSIRO plot, it will likely be in the hotter end of the predictions there?
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This is a chart I created to compare how well the CSIRO ACESS (CMIP5) model predicted the Nino34 region temperature:
https://1drv.ms/u/s!Aq1iAj8Yo7jNhFG4cx21dMijUI3H?e=HG1qeO
THe actual is the NOAA/Reynolds optimally interpolated record that comines actual ocean buoy measurement with satellite readings.
I chose the region for comparison because it is recognised as a leading indicator for global weather. La Ninas are forecast when the temperature in the region is below 26C and El Nino when the temperature is above 28C. So taking the CSIRO history shows we have been in La Nina for the past 30 years and will hit El Nino in about 15 years. Then El Ninos become persistent from 2100.
To say the CSIRO modelling is bad is way off the mark. The kiddies producing this poo should;d be sent to the naughty corner to never return. They are a waste of space.
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Rick:
We are DOOMED, DOOMED I say. Not only is the local ocean warming twice as fast as other places but it is warming faster than itself.
As for their linear extrapolation for the next 80 years based on no real change for the last 40, have they given up trying to sell Sydney Harbor bridge to tourists?
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Ian, I haven’t got a direct link that I can give you , sorry. But I have seen the chart/graph numerous times from all sorts of climate realist contributors. I’ll describe it. Someone charted all the plots of world temp prediction by all the available climate models worldwide for the last approx. 25 years. There’s probably at least 40 of them. When plotted it looks like spaghetti and each model plot is coloured and matched to a legend. Standard charting stuff. Perhaps it was actually sourced from one of the Climate IPCC reports? Someone else then also charted the actual observed temps using both sat and balloon data, on the same graph using same units etc. What you see is great agreement between sat/ balloon data and the trend lines are almost flat/ slightly inclining. On the same graph is all the climate model spaghetti and they all are trending upwards at a much greater angle. I’m pretty sure I have seen it on Tony Heller’s website, but also via other media as well. Someone here will no doubt have a link – Jo might even have one. When you see it the first time – your thoughts should be -WTF!!. Why does anyone believe any of the nonsense predicted by these models, when they do not even align to recent past data. Yet, here were are.
31
Akasofu is still pretty much on the money.
I’m sticking with his prediction until there is a significant deviation – one way or the other.
40
2 Meters of snow in the west of NY state, near Lake Erie, winter coming. ?
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If you know where Buffalo is on this radar map hit the play button and watch how it’s getting hammered.
And it ain’t over.
https://climate.weather.gc.ca/radar/index_e.html?site=ONT&year=2022&month=11&day=18&hour=23&minute=00&duration=6&image_type=PRECIPET_SNOW_A11Y_WEATHEROFFICE
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If we had not been told for decades that the world was going to freeze or boil, that the cities were going to be flooded or the droughts would last forever, a casual look at the weather since WWII would describe it as a particularly benign period in human existence. How this has been turned into a massive crisis is the real story. Because there is no crisis. And if there were, like Global Cooling, what are we going to do about it anyway? So this is not even a religion, its the biggest scam in human history.
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Spot on the money TdeF and the data and evidence supports your claims.
I like to use Africa our poorest continent as a test case and the data proves that the last 50 years or 70 years easily proves the case.
The climate over the last 200 or 100 or 50 years proves that Humans have enjoyed the most beneficial and benign climate for thousands of years.
Just checking the UN data for life expectancy or wealth or health is conclusive proof we’re correct.
So why do we want to WASTE TRILLIONs of $ on the TOXIC S & W lunacy just to wreck our COAL BASE-LOAD power supplies and then be powerless to even defend ourselves in the future?
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And we are going to run out of energy very quickly once Africa, Asia and South America start using energy like the US. Then what do we do?
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” run out of energy very quickly . . .. Then what do we do?”
I’m hoping not to be keeping the fields tidy with a ground-driven sickle-bar mower pulled by a horse , or worse . . oxen.
I reckon that with a Nissan Leaf motor in a Leyland /Nuffield tractor pulling a tandem NH sickle bar mower, I’ ll be O.K . 🙂
I guess that anyone who wants to eat will have to live on the farm , or walk here.
30
Hmm. I might be inclined to replace those drive shafts with electric motors , for less transmission loss.
40kW should be enough.
https://agriculture.newholland.com/nar/en-us/equipment/products/haytools-spreaders/sicklebar-mowers/features/model-456
The compelling reason to mow is to wilt the lucerne so that the cows don’t suffer inflation.
Closing NZ’s only oil refinery was obviously a hell of a good idea.
20
How do the various types of horse compare with oxen?
As Australia’s energy and fertiliser supply continues to be systematically destroyed, these issues will have to be considered.
There will be a whole new industry breeding farm animals to pull equipment and also making animal-drawn ploughs etc..
20
“How do the various types of horse compare with oxen?”
Dont know David, from my very limited knowledge of bullock drays, I would guess that the “oxen” are good at straight line haulage but a bit limited when it comes to thinking for them selves. Horses on the other hand can co operate very closely with their handlers, easing corners, stop start knowledge, great ability to “like a job” one horse may choose to walk in the furrow while another walks the unbroken ground etc. Knew a bloke that worked “Clydies” and did a few acres every year for the shear pleasure. Probably not quite the same as trying to do a bit of broad acre stuff.
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Haha, my late father had horses on his family farm back in the 1930’s. His job was to feed the horses, so that they could be used to sow and harvest the oats crop, to feed the horses, so that they ……. ( you get it ). The family bought their first kero powered tractor in the late 1930’s and never looked back.
30
WE will be Chinese and command the most powerful armed forces on Earth and in space. WE will be exploiting existing uranium sources and building OUR reserves. WE may even be building the first commercial fusion reactors.
A caucasian friend of mine many years ago forecast that I could likely have grandchildren of part Asian descent. He was a closet racist who kept it well hidden so that thought was horrifying for him. He was a wartime baby from rural Queensland so reflected his upbringing.
As it turned out, he was right with his forecast.
What my friend did not foresee was the growing dominance of China globally. Economically, Australia has greater dependence on China than Taiwan. It has to grate with China that Australia is so mineral rich and it is spread across such a small population. Australians are such a wasteful mob that we can dabble with wind turbines and solar panels that China works so industriously to manufacture using mostly Australian mineral wealth.
In hindsight, Gough Whitlam got it right on China. And I think Paul Keating still sees China as Australia’s future.
10
“China as Australia’s future.”
Make that Australasia’s future , and it seems kind of obvious.
Aus. has the minerals and Godzone has some food.
30
Just reading this snowmageddon story now…
Currently Buffalo is sitting at 77″ or 1.95m of snow.
Insert picture of Al Gore with flamethrower melting snow here, exclaiming “your children will never know what snow is”
Ahh, global warming. Gotta love it.
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What really frustrates and annoys me is the world concentrated on debating and arguing about climate change (natural Earth Cycles) and ignoring the far-left political objectives behind the climate hoax.
On 15 October 2015 (UN IPCC Paris Conference commenced end of November 2015) UN Official Christiana Figureres addressed a gathering and admitted that climate change is not the real agenda, wrecking the capitalist system as the world knows it (free enterprise, free markets) was the primary objective.
The UN octopus arms organisations all work to extract money from developed nations (redistribution of wealth) and gain management control of those developed nations.
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It also annoyed the hell out of the 45th President of the US. He said it many times and also commented on social media to that effect. E has now let D back on Twitter and so hopefully he can keep up the commentary without fear of being censored or deleted.
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The northern hemisphere has to warm to increase snowfall. That process started 600 years ago and is just getting into stride. The first sign of glaciation is rapid increase in minimum temperature over northern land masses. That has been observed throughout the satellite era.
Cooling during glaciation is because the ice surface over the land elevates. At the peak of glaciation, the ice can build at almost 1m per year. So 100m over a century. The lapse rate ensures it will cool despite the ocean temperature actually increasing.
20
When the wind blows too hard do they turn off wind farms?
https://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/hats-with-strings-back-in-fashion-as-winds-whip-through-the-southeast/935582
20
When I looked it up a few years back, the general safety limit seemed to be 90 km/hour before they had to be curtailed.
Cheers
Dave B
10
Anti Coal and Gas policies are causing the destruction of forests around the world.
As the price of energy continues to be pushed higher and higher by the greenie agendas…
… illegal logging and rampant deforestation is becoming more and more lucrative.
https://notrickszone.com/2022/11/18/as-green-policies-lead-to-exploding-energy-prices-illegal-deforestation-accelerates-in-europe/
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There are recent reports of people stealing wood here in England. That’s before the cold weather sets in.
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Joy:
They have been doing that in Germany all year, so much so that some pine logs have to be kept in locked enclosures.
Also reports of wood theft in Poland and Romania has troubles with gangs chopping down Nature Forests to export wood to the rest of Europe.
10
They better not start on the forests here
There will be trouble!
Too many issues not enough police
00
Do you think the massive Missoula glacial lake floods at the end of the last glaciation had any effect on how fast the glaciation took to finish?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Missoula_floods?wprov=sfla1
00
Last time I looked, the planet was STILL coming out of the LAST Ice Age. Such events, like much in nature, are NOT “linear. From Southern England being an important grape-growing area in medieval time, to the locals ICE SKATING on the Thames a couple of centuries later, is a hint.. And that was on a piece of real estate surrounded by ocean water. More landlocked places recovered from the Ice Age a lot slower.
Between solar “cycles” and the planet orbiting through unknown cosmic detritus clouds, to near-planet-killing asteroid strike, the place can get a little “lively” (and horrendously lethal), at times. And, don’t forget the cyclic reversal of the magnetic poles, just for giggles.
“Catastrophism’ is a VERY valid concept in geology and other matters. Mega floods and monster volcanoes are a couple of fun items. What good is a couple of week’s warning of something like Yellowstone going berserk, or Toba reviving past glories or a stray comet strike??
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Oceanic surface cooling?
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/
The beginning of the next iceage scare???????
10
https://dailysceptic.org/2022/11/20/south-pole-hits-record-cold-november-temperatures/
I heard it was cold down there.
20
Thanks, excellent work by Morrison.
00
A tour of South Island New Zealand in 1974 we went to Franz Josef Glacier. We could see the glacier had retreated some considerable distance back up the valley. Terminal morraines were further down the valley. It appears from this article that perhaps the northern hemisphere was getting glacial advancement but the opposite was occurring in the southern hemisphere. It would be interesting to see where the snout of the Franz Josef glacier is now in 2022.
20
Just look it up.
01
‘The Fox and Franz Josef glaciers still flow almost to sea level’, which is an indication they are not retreating.
30
Fascinating!
00
It’s all about cause and effect. In my opinion, climate is governed by the 2 Hemispheres. Currently, the Northern Hemisphere is slightly cooling, and the Southern Hemisphere is in hiatus. What the future holds is anyone’s guess.
00