JoNova

A science presenter, writer, speaker & former TV host; author of The Skeptic's Handbook (over 200,000 copies distributed & available in 15 languages).


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In perfect hell for grid managers, Global Warming causes coldest start to winter in South-East Australia since WWII

The climate experts didn’t warn us we’d need more electricity for winter in Australia.

If only carbon dioxide make winter nights warmer, Australians wouldn’t have been using up stockpiles of coal and gas in the last six weeks, and setting winter-time demand records. These geniuses got everything wrong.

Coldest start to winter in decades for eastern Australia with power grid under strain

The Guardian

Early June temperatures in Melbourne didn’t go above 15 degrees for first time in 70 years as cold weather pattern starts to break

Eastern Australia’s giant cold snap is finally breaking down but not before temperatures reached lows not seen for seven decades or longer and pushed the country’s main electricity grid to the brink.

The extended chill was caused by an unusual weather pattern that locked in cool pools of air over southern and eastern states, triggering the deepest snow dumps in the alps since 1968, according to Ben Domensino, a senior meteorologist at Weatherzone.

Australia so cold it’s already setting winter electricity demand records

It’s not about record cold snaps, it’s more of a long run of below average days. In a sign of how not-warm it is in Australia the sheer number of megawatts being used on the East Coast was the highest ever recorded for May, and WattClarity noted that the first week of June was already in the top four years. Demand on June 7th this year was 32,000 Megawatts — the highest winter day since 2008. It’s not as high as our highest summer records which are just under 36,000 MW. Nonetheless, it wasn’t supposed to happen much was it?

As a temperature proxy the NEM leans heavily on Melbourne and Sydney conditions.

May and June peak ‘Market Demand’ very high on a historical scale

May and June peak ‘Market Demand’ very high on a historical scale | WattClarity

Anyone who wants to file a complaint that a cold month or two doesn’t mean anything can send it in with all their complaints to the ABC for every news story about a hot weekend being “climate change”. We want receipts.

9.7 out of 10 based on 89 ratings

130 comments to In perfect hell for grid managers, Global Warming causes coldest start to winter in South-East Australia since WWII

  • #
    cadger

    Grauniad explains

    The extended chill was caused by an unusual weather pattern that locked in cool pools of air over southern and eastern states, triggering the deepest snow dumps in the alps since 1968, according to Ben Domensino, a senior meteorologist at Weatherzone.

    Grauniad can’t /won’t explain

    Imagine a swimming pool when the heater is turned on — temperatures rise quickly in the areas surrounding the heater jets, while the rest of the pool takes longer to warm up. If one thinks of the Pacific as a very large pool, the western Pacific’s temperatures have risen over the past few decades as compared to the eastern Pacific, creating a strong temperature gradient, or pressure differences that drive wind, across the entire ocean in winter. In a process known as convection, the gradient causes more warm air, heated by the ocean surface, to rise over the western Pacific, and decreases convection over the central and eastern Pacific.

    As prevailing winds move the hot air east, the northern shifts of the jet stream trap the air and move it toward land, where it sinks, resulting in heat waves.

    https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/heat-dome.html

    152

    • #
      Hasbeen

      I wonder if they would care to explain just which prevailing winds move the hot air east.

      It can’t be the roaring 40s, or the south east trades of the southern hemisphere, or the north east trades of the northern hemisphere, so just which binds are they talking about?

      50

      • #
        yarpos

        doesnt the weather generally move left to right / west to east?

        30

        • #
          David-of-Cooyal-in-Oz

          The weather systems do in general, but the winds rotate around their centres. Perhaps I should have said “centres” as the systems are rarely circular, except when they become intense.
          Cheers
          Dave B

          30

          • #
            yarpos

            yes of course , but that wasnt the point really. They were talking about prevailing winds or the tendency to move in one direction.

            00

      • #
        Leo G

        I wonder if they would care to explain just which prevailing winds move the hot air east.

        I wouldn’t mind an explanation for warm air sinking in a high pressure system. A feral, mid-latitude, Ferrel cell perhaps?

        10

    • #
      el+gordo

      The chilly wind from Antartica came about because of a negative SAM.

      http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/#tabs=Southern-Ocean

      20

  • #

    Quote from the post. “it’s more of a long run of below average days”
    This means it is not “extreme weather” which is the new way of saying cold. It also means it is not warming. But is it cooler than the adjusted past? That is does the adjusted past unitentionally show it is not abnormal?

    321

  • #
    Neville

    So what will happen when the AMO changes to cool phase and perhaps Arctic and NH start to see a lower temp trend?
    We know that there has been no warming in Antarctica since 1978 according to the UAH V 6 satellite record and the recent NATURE study also found no warming there for 70 years.
    And according to the Turner BAS study there has been cooling at the Antarctic peninsula since 1998.
    OH and the so called HOT SPOT over the equator is missing according to Dr Christy etc, so that’s a very quick coverage of the world to THINK about.

    271

  • #
    DLK

    and given the built-in warming bias of electronic thermometers (electronic thermometers showed on average a temperature that was 0.9°C warmer), it’s actually colder than that.

    201

    • #
      Graeme No.3

      Ah! But our BOM has cunningly sited them in warmer places so a ready excuse when they are told to PLEASE EXPLAIN.

      191

      • #
        wal1957

        And the BOM also guaranteed that the electronic thermometers had been thoroughly tested and approved for use.
        How to prove gerbil warming? Introduce a measuring device that falsifys temperature readings.

        201

        • #
          Gary S

          ‘And the BOM also guaranteed that the electronic thermometers had been thoroughly tested and approved for use.’ Sounds eerily like another product recently released to the masses.

          112

        • #
          Graeme No.3

          And if you see the series on Ken’s Kingdom from the crowd survey of official BOM site where 48% failed the official BOM requirements for their sites.
          The one I noticed was in tropical Queensland on top of a galvanised roof at the outer end of raw sugar loading conveyor. Despite its ridiculous position it failed to record any temperature rise for many years. What was the old saying? The best laid plans of mice-brains and men oft gang ugly”?

          21

  • #
    Zane

    And do you know what Albo and Labor will conjure up as a solution? Yep, you guessed it! MORE RENEWABLES!

    260

    • #
      yarpos

      Good, the more they pile on and the quicker they do it , the sooner this will be over and we can start looking at real answers.

      61

  • #
    Neville

    AGAIN here’s the Lancet temperature deaths around the world from 13 countries and note that deaths from higher temperatures are just 10% of the deaths from lower temps. And the puzzle is that deaths from moderate cold temps are very high compared to extreme cold deaths.

    https://els-jbs-prod-cdn.jbs.elsevierhealth.com/cms/attachment/79cee7d6-8e9d-4659-a6cf-f334e1403498/gr2.jpg

    Here’s the full 2015 Lancet study and note Aussie deaths from extreme and moderate heat are better than most countries. But again moderate cold deaths are much higher.

    https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(14)62114-0/fulltext

    101

  • #
    Jack01

    This is what happens when the electricity grid has to assume that the weather will always be average so things don’t go wrong.

    Lesson here is that weather is NEVER average. These people writing the guardian act as if there have never been spells of cold weather? It’s cool for June but are they missing the fact that most years in July and August it always gets this cold?? Why didn’t we have problems every other winter?

    These journalists that write articles like in the guardian really cannot think to save their life.

    It will get hot, cold, wet, dry, etc.. A good electricity grid will hold up in all situations. When the grid fails, don’t blame the weather. Weather does what it has always done. Instead blame the idiots who designed the grid!

    210

    • #
      Honk R Smith

      “assume that the weather will always be average”

      Think about how bad the average weather is, half the weather is worse than that.

      (Apologies to the late, great George Carlin.)

      130

    • #
      Annie

      Not so much the ‘idiots’ who designed the grid; I would rather say the idiots who are subjecting the grid to the ridiculous strains on it by imposing all these so-called ‘renewables’.

      290

    • #
      yarpos

      I dont think anyone actually designs the grid anymore. It just sort of happens based on fashion and political whim. The operators then do the best they can with the mess presented to them. Whats going on right now doesnt smack of being part of an overarching plan or strategy that is being management by anyone.

      140

      • #
        James Murphy

        Given that it hasn’t completely fallen over yet, there must be people who know what they are doing in the various grid control rooms around the place.
        It’s clear that a portion of society would prefer it if everyone but them were to live without electricity – they seem to exist in every political party too.

        70

        • #
          yarpos

          Operational management control is not design. Very often its an art form in itself required due to lack of design.

          20

  • #
    RexAlan

    I’ve never been able to understand why they use the terms “cold snap” but “heat wave”. Surely if we can have “heat waves” we can have “cold waves” but no it’s always a “cold snap”.

    180

    • #
      Honk R Smith

      The latest is ‘polar vortex’ and ‘heat dome’.

      100

    • #
      Greg in NZ

      ‘Snap frozen!’ – as in Siberian woolly mammoths – comes to mind.

      How about ‘cold plunge’ instead, evoking visions of modern-day Siberians digging a hole on a frozen lake and jumping in… kind of takes your breath away.

      80

      • #
        Ted1

        I remember reading about snap frozen mammoths a long time ago.

        I doubted and still doubt the story. More likely they died in a bog.

        63

        • #
          Bozotheclown

          The flesh was found to still be edible. https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2019/12/permafrozen-dinner/604069/

          That don’t happen mired in a bog. Further,

          In 1901, an expedition to the Beresovca River in Siberia found a male mammoth so exquisitely preserved that it still had grass in its mouth.

          Found frozen with grass in it’s mouth.

          I’ll go with snap frozen. Explaining how it happens is more difficult

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          • #
            Mike Jonas

            The mammoth died a natural death. It had been grazing, or trying to, so there was still grass in its mouth when it died. The weather was cold, so the rate of decay was very slow, and when the full winter weather arrived the mammoth’s body was still in good condition. There was no snap freezing of a live mammoth. [Null theory]

            31

          • #
            Geoff Sherrington

            It would be strange if there was no grass in its mouth. Elephants spend most working hours putting grass in their gobs, assume ditto for mammoths. It would be notable if no grass was found in the stomach as this could be a cause of death.
            Friends I knew used to flirt with danger, strange acts involving grass in the bog.
            Geoff S

            10

            • #

              The partially preserved mammoth carcasses all reveal a wide array of radiocarbon ages ..Some were frozen after falling into crevices in the permafrost unable to extract themselves . It is no big mystery
              I composed an extensive reply to your critique of Brett Sutton et al’s junk paper ‘Acting on Climate Change and Health ” in the WUWT comments section under Sterling Burnett’s ” CNN Hypes False Dengue Fever Claims Putting Climate Fears Ahead of Facts Again ” Strange that someone who worked in a Commonwealth faculty of education should have classified Ross River Virus as a tropical ailment [ as you did ] when in fact it is not a tropical disease…. On more than one occasion I have witnessed a WUWT contributor complain that comments were posted under his namesake but that’s another story. Someone should submit a reprised medical ethics complaint concerning Sutton his co authors and the Medical Journal of Australia editors [ who accepted that rubbish for publication ] but it will probably come to naught ….Climate change catastrophism ,after all, is a neo Lysenkoist ideology in the woke Australian medical professions and public health sectors …How Sutton, who was named as a person of interest in bribery allegations in the Slug Gate controversy only for the notoriously corrupt Victoria Police to determinedly deny the Cook family whose catering business Sutton signed off to destroy, justice by blocking a FOI request for interview documents, is permitted full access to the sensitive data of thousands of Victorians collated by the sleazy, secretive unit ‘ Insights Victoria ” is astonishing ..Now the Victorian Labor government is endeavoring to pass legislation to indemnify him from criminal prosecution on the provision he acted in “good faith”… This personal data harvesting , intrusive surveillance, malfeasance in public office ,cronyism and the politicization of police and health bureaucracies – not to mention arrests and detention of protest leaders intimidation of journalists and film-makers – is what one sees in the most rotten corrupt police states. Like Erich Honecker’s East Germany … All that is missing is the malicious persecution of a Catholic cardinal [Some might appreciate that sarcasm]…

              Jo’s article ‘ We Need To Protect Our Health System From Climate Change Doctors ” is more poignant now than ever. Read my review of the Victorian Department of Health paper ‘ Acting on Climate Change and Health under Sterling Burnett’s article on the WUWT page Jo

              00

      • #
        another ian

        “Snap Frozen” was the nickname for a Canadian on a drilling rig in western Qld IIRC

        10

    • #
      Annie

      They are having a ‘heat snap’ in southern England atm.

      80

  • #
    Neville

    The golden rule is that we must always install RELIABLE BASE-LOAD energy like Coal or Gas or Hydro or Nuclear.
    And NEVER install TOXIC, UNRELIABLE disasters like S & W.
    OH and the King island joke is running on 100% Diesel at 9.03 am.

    https://www.hydro.com.au/clean-energy/hybrid-energy-solutions/success-stories/king-island

    151

    • #

      Just trying to figure that screen out. As i look at it at 9:36 AM Eastern Aust time, it says Wind -11KW, solar 10kW, battery -5Kw with diesel at 100%. Does that mean that the solar is almost able to supply what the wind is somehow using while the diesel is charging the battery and supplying the rest of what wind needs to use?

      90

      • #
        Bozotheclown

        Was it so cold they had to back-feed the wind to keep them from freezing up?
        Or maybe a news crew was doing some nearby video and wanted them to actually be turning?

        70

    • #
      yarpos

      Not sure what the point you are trying to make. Its a mixed system so you can pick time window where any source will dominate. Its like cherry picking NEM dispatch to show, which State supports which State.

      Surely the measure at KI is does the system reduce overall diesel generation spend? If yes what did it cost (capex and opex) to get that saving? Does the answer add up to a sound business case?

      The operators seem unwilling to disclose the numbers, so its close to a certainty that its financially a flop. Otherwise they would be in brag mode. I suspect its a glossy show pony project that doesnt actually achieve much.

      File with hot rocks, tidal energy, solar concentrators etc. But at least its still running and the good folk on KI have power thanks the govt largesse.

      141

      • #
        another ian

        “Good old diesels always save you”

        Borrowed and adapted from a saying of an old time sheep and wool adviser on mulga and livestock in western Qld

        40

  • #
    OldOzzie

    German Official Warns Of Gas Shortages, Bankruptcies, Massive Price Hikes That Will Send “Shockwaves Throughout The Country”

    A gas shortage and high prices will send “shockwaves through the country,” leading to landlords cutting the heat for tenants and widespread company bankruptcies, warned Klaus Müller, the head of Germany’s Federal Network Agency, which is the regulatory office for electricity, gas, telecommunications, postal services, and railway markets.

    Müller paints a bleak picture about the crisis in an interview with German newspaper Rheinische Post, saying it will “send shockwaves throughout the country. Banks will ramp up their business with installment loans, and ailing companies will fall into insolvency.”

    Müller’s office, which is a federal agency within the Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Climate Action, has a bird’s eye view of the economic situation in Germany and also special insight into how economic conditions will develop into the future.

    Müller says he expects gas prices to continue to climb, resulting in increased inflation that goes far beyond energy. He also warns that there will be a dramatic lack of gas in the winter, which could lead to landlords turning down the heat to save on energy. In turn, Germans may have to grapple with colder apartments.

    “Tenancy law stipulates that the landlord must adjust the heating system during the heating period so that the minimum temperature falls between 20 and 22 degrees Celsius. The government could temporarily lower the heating requirements for landlords. We are discussing this with politicians,” Müller said.

    The government has already pushed businesses and citizens to reduce their energy consumption, but that pressure may come in the form of new laws and regulations in the future, with Müller calling for more pressure to be applied to save gas. Although Germany has pushed for a general ban on Russian oil imports, the country is highly reliant on natural gas from Russia. If Russia were to cut gas in the critical winter months or even restrict supplies, it could lead to critical damage to the German economy, a scenario energy experts have already warned about.

    151

    • #
      another ian

      Just remember that it is Putin and Russia that are suffering (/s shouldn’t be necessary but just in case)

      51

    • #
      Sceptical+Sam

      Perhaps that’s part of the motivation for the Germans doing whatever they can to get the Ukrainian war over and done with before winter – even if it means sacrificing Kyiv and Zelensky.

      Did they ever send those 500 helmuts? 🙂

      21

  • #
    Graham Richards

    Earlier this morning I slipped up & went on ABC. Just in time to hear some “nong” or the other tell their regular brainless audience that the current energy crisis was caused by unreliable COAL FIRED POWER GENERATORS!!!

    Would someone, somewhere, somehow shut that babbling asylum down. PERMANENTLY!

    312

    • #
      Greg in NZ

      Heard a nong from Canberra on the radio y/day complaining about the ‘incredible cold’ … yet the capital was immune from blackouts as it was run on “100% renewables” [sic].

      Her name was Kerry-Anne [sump-think]. Good luck, Australia, it was nice knowing you.

      192

      • #
        Ross

        Nong – Australian slang ( and also Kiwi) for a complete idiot. Oxford dictionary – an ineffectual or stupid person.

        80

      • #
        yarpos

        Imagine all the surprised expressions when they go down with the rest of NSW if the worst happens. They will have to come to grips with being lied to, and also that they had nonsensical expectations. Its a macro version of power who get a basic solar panel install and think they will have power in a blackout.

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    • #
      Ross

      Gold star award today for you.

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    • #
      Dennis

      Being a completely private sector taxpayer funded sheltered workshop environment employer of public servants ABC personnel haven’t got real world vision, and absolutely no business management ability, so profit and loss, revenue verses profit are beyond their comprehension.

      In fact beyond the comprehension of too many elected representatives in our parliaments it appears.

      Privatise public assets, power stations and transmission lines, demolish power stations or close them down, give preferential treatment to unreliable energy sources together with subsidies that are industry specific, effectively handicap privatised power stations reducing efficiency of operation and impacting adversely on profitability and then when the problems commence blame the power stations.

      92

  • #
    Neville

    Another good discussion about weather, heat waves, the UHIE etc from the Heartland weekly video.
    Some very interesting graphs from Anthony Watts showing the UHIE in some cities over many decades.
    But it’s wonderful to see normal, SANE people explain all the BS and con tricks from the MSM.

    https://wattsupwiththat.com/2022/06/17/live-at-noon-ct-today-were-having-a-heat-wave-and-its-totally-normal/

    41

  • #
    OldOzzie

    Salvatore, Understaffed & Overworked Martyr to Govt Covid Stupidity says:

    June 17, 2022 at 8:07 pm

    Oops, I misspoke. Removing those four cities does not put USA on an average of Northern Europe.
    It actually gives USA the 4th lowest gun murder rate in the world.


    Source: The Guardian.

    special-report-fixing-gun-violence-in-america

    Dramatic racial disparities in homicide have persisted for decades

    Within most high-gun homicide cities, victims of gun murder are overwhelmingly black men. This dramatic disparity has persisted for decades, even as cities have seen sharp increases and decreases in murder rates, according to FBI gun murder data. These charts break down the numbers of gun murders since 1975 by race and gender for different cities.

    51

  • #
    yarpos

    Was just thinking of the pool of talent we have driving the Energy issue forward.

    Bowen, Kean, D’Ambrosio. Its little wonder we have no answer other than go over the cliff faster.

    If only they had one working example of what they are proposing. UK, EU , California all in back pedal mode. SA did half a billion dollars worth of back pedalling before the election Weatherill lost. The gas and diesel generation they installed + the interconnector is the only reason they have a level of energy stability.

    101

  • #
  • #
    Forrest Gardener

    Just another data point. The King Island system shows -14kW for wind, 6kW for solar, -5kW for battery and 1923kW for diesal.

    For bonus points calculate how many more wind turbines are required to achieve 100% wind power. More turbines equals greater negative power.

    And that’s in the middle of the roaring forties!

    82

    • #
      Ronin

      The turkeys obviously failed maths at school, they don’t realise that 10×0 = 0 just the same as 1000×0 still = 0.

      41

  • #
  • #
    Ross

    King Island is 1089 Km2, which equals 1089000 ha. Based on their average occupancy area of 39.94 ha/ tower (data from 7 Windpower installations in Victoria) that equates to about 27000 turbines you could install on the island. All useless when the wind doesn’t blow. If you want to do some scary figures – work on 16.7 ha /MW required for wind power and calculate how much land you would need to get to a decent proportion of total electricity needs for Australia. But, those figures are based on nameplate, not capacity factors. Realise then, that all those wind turbines need to be placed in the windiest areas in Australia which is basically the Great Dividing range along the east coast, also close to the population centres. To summarise, the area festooned with wind turbines is vast and really cant be achieved.

    120

  • #
  • #
    OldOzzie

    Australia’s Energy Crisis Worsens As Gov’t Ask People To Keep Lights Off To Avert Blackouts

    Australia’s energy minister asked Sydney and the New South Wales (eastern part of the country) residents to turn off lights and energy-intensive appliances in the evening to prevent power blackouts due to an ongoing energy crunch, The Independent reports.

    The federal energy minister, Chris Bowen, asked residents in a televised address to turn off energy-intensive devices between “6 to 8 [pm]” to mitigate risks of a spike in power during peak hours. He pointed to several offline coal-fired plants because of maintenance and unexpected issues.

    Reuters notes that 65% of eastern Australia’s power is generated by coal, but more than a quarter of that capacity is offline.

    80

    • #
      Ronin

      When I hear those pleas to use less power, it just irritates me and makes me want to go turn everything on that I can afford, that is.

      60

      • #
        Tel

        The are not asking because they really want you to care, or even because they expect you to do something.

        They are asking now … so that they can blame you later.

        30

  • #
    b.nice

    And today, where I am, it is cold, cloudy and windless

    Probably close to zero rooftop or other solar, and very little from wind.

    111

    • #
      Sambar

      And where I am as well as cold, cloudy and windless there are calls to ban wood burning heaters in homes as the particulates sent into the atmosphere can cause asthma, heart disease and cancer. The report calls for the removal of these heaters before a home can be sold, with the Victorian government already offering a subsidy to change to a more “environmently friendly” form of heating. How ironic, cheap reliable heating can be replaced by expensive intermittent heating but thats a small price to pay to save the planet. Apparently atmospheric particles are only dangerous if they come from domestic sources. Ignore bush fires, dust storms, pollen events and a thousand other contributors to atmospheric particles, its apparently “all my fault”

      132

    • #
      Ronin

      Lovely day here in Brissie, clear skies, warm and no wind.

      20

  • #
    OldOzzie

    The True Cost of Solar and Wind Power? Having No Power at All

    You’ve probably already been made aware of the predictions that there will be numerous electric grid failures this summer, even in areas not normally prone to blackouts or brownouts.

    The reasons are complicated but at the top of everyone’s list is replacing reliable coal, oil, and nuclear-powered electric generating plants with far less reliable and less powerful wind and solar energy generation.

    Saving the planet is going to be annoying, dangerous, and far less of a smooth transition than we’ve been led to believe. In fact, green energy fanatics have lied about how easy the transition is going to be.

    CompactMag:

    Renewables are the least reliable form of power. But because of subsidies, they can outbid others in auctions that are supposed to encourage competition and deliver value to consumers. Faced with this subsidized competition, traditional power plants can’t make enough money to stay online. When people describe the Palisades nuclear plant as “uneconomic,” that’s exactly what they are talking about. It was shunted off of the grid by these dynamics.

    No one can be held responsible for keeping the grid running. Independent system operators, the authorities set up to oversee the RTOs, can’t tell power plants to keep fuel on-site or order them to prefer one type of generation over another. The federal government doesn’t allow them to, because that would create bias in the markets and entrench the “market power” of larger, more reliable plants. To work around this, various regions have created “capacity markets,” in which generators bid to be on call for seasonal peaks. But capacity markets often fail because they treat unreliable and reliable forms of power as if they are the same thing.

    In other words, renewable energy generation is just another racket subsidized by the federal government. It’s not that there isn’t enough energy to generate electrical power. There’s plenty of oil, plenty of coal and natural gas.

    But who can compete with subsidized energy like solar and wind?

    Take the Midcontinent Independent System Operator (MISO), which allocates power for the upper Midwest and parts of the South. It holds capacity auctions under which power plants guarantee they will be online during seasonal demand spikes—when everyone’s cranking their AC in summer or turning up the heat in winter. But MISO’s capacity market is horribly flawed.

    For one thing, wind power is treated the same as power generated by fossil fuels.

    Moreover, intermittent sources like wind are allowed to bid into MISO’s capacity auction. But wind is unreliable and can’t be dispatched—you never know when it will produce, and you can’t make it produce when you want it to. So, wind bids in at an average expected level of generation. A simple visual (left) reveals what a fatal flaw this is.

    As Orr, the energy analyst, points out, this model assumes that wind will blow at 15 percent capacity. But there is no guarantee that it will do so.

    In the end, it comes down to a simple, mathematical equation: will our company make a profit from generating electricity or not?

    It should be noted that this is a feature, not a bug of renewable energy. Making it too expensive to use fossil fuels to generate electricity is part of the charm renewable energy holds for green fanatics.

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  • #
    Earl

    And how do they charge us for all this? Prompted to look at AGL energy plans and what an eye opener. I wonder how many of the latte northern beaches nsw set realise that when it comes to their EV recharging plans not all cars are equal!! Seems with AGL you can sign up for an electric vehicle plan (Residential) BUT THEN if your EV is a certain different make you have a Residential Electric Vehicle Plan (BMW Customers). Thoughts of Frasier and Niles Crane and their quest to get membership/access of/to the highest plan level of a new spa come to mind.

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  • #
    RicDre

    Australian Government: More Committed than Ever to Renewable Energy

    Essay by Eric Worrall

    The Aussie climate change clown show continues, with state and federal politicians arguing about whether to allow some gas projects until the battery backup is ready.

    https://wattsupwiththat.com/2022/06/17/australian-government-more-committed-than-ever-to-renewable-energy/

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    • #
      Dennis

      I once estimated the area of land and number of wind turbines that would be needed to theoretically provide 2,000 MW Capacity Factor based and ignoring the “firming” back up and transmission lines land. To theoretically replace the NSW Hunter Valley Liddell Power Station with 4 generator units.

      Multiply that by every coal fired power station still operating and the 82 per cent renewables goal the Albo Labor Government is rabbiting on about is an impossibly expensive and land area objective. Add battery storage noting how quickly even the largest in SA at present discharges and time needed for recharging and the exercise becomes ridiculous.

      50

  • #
    Geoff Sherrington

    AEMO, the Australian Energy Market Operator, has been the body dictating rules for energy producers.

    AEMO was set up by COAG, Conference of Australian Governments, a mix of Federal, State and Local Governments.
    Some COAG history is on Wiki –
    “COAG was established by agreement between the Prime Minister, Premiers and Chief Ministers in 1992 but enjoys legal recognition neither in the Constitution nor by statute…its existence necessarily remains tenuous.”
    https://www.google.com/search?q=date+coag+started&rlz=1C1CHBF_en-GBAU911AU911&oq=date+coag+started&aqs=chrome..69i57.6472j0j15&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8

    Soon after the Federal election on 21st May, the new Federal Government on 2nd June changed COAG to NFRC, National Federation Reform Council.
    COAG becomes National Cabinet | Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet (pmc.gov.au)

    We now have our electricity supply and future planning decided by a group that bypasses the historic way that we have been governed. Before, in a matter like this, the Federal Parliament would decide if a matter was Federal or State by the Constitution. If it was Federal, it would make laws that involved the government and opposition elected Members of Parliament debating in the House of Representatives, plus the House of Review, the Senate. If it was a State matter, the State would go through a similar routine.

    By recent changes, we have COAG, now NFRC, which is a semi-commercial body, more like a company than a Parliament, making the rules. Some of the NFRC members are not elected by voters, but are appointed by diverse governments. The Federal Government has a commercial share in NFRC, possibly a controlling share, but there is no compulsory room for an Opposition presence, as I understand it. (I could be wrong, since matters are moving fast.)

    In a simple view, we seem to be now working outside the constraints of the Constitution. That, by section 51 and others defines that the Federal Commonwealth has the power to make laws in respect of a number of activities. It does not state that Parliament can farm out this law making to a commercial enterprise in which it holds shares. Lawyers might note if it does not prohibit such action either. Then there is each State with its own Constitution or equivalent, which adds diversity to what a particular government might or might not be authorised to do.

    I am not a lawyer, but I have had experience with governments “going rogue” to disadvantage us. It seems to me that we have started on another, rather serious episode that eminent Constitutional lawyers might want to study. Geoff S

    (This is so important that I posted on WUWT as well.)

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    • #
      Geoff Sherrington

      My mistake. Sorry. The change from COAG was in 2020, former govt, not 2022. There was a typo in the news article that triggered my response. But, the essence of the little essay remains. Geoff S

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  • #
    el+gordo

    Talking of anomalous cold in South East Australia, here is an example of when it was more than just a cold snap.

    ‘Anomalously cold periods were also identified in 1835–1836 and 1848–1849, in general agreement with temperature reconstructions from other regions of the Southern Hemisphere.’ (Ashcroft et al 2014)

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  • #
    Zane

    AGL seems to stand for Australian Green Loonies.

    90

  • #
  • #
    el+gordo

    There was a cold snap in Sydney on 28 June 1836 and the town was blanketed in snow.

    https://lindenashcroft.com/2014/12/08/28-june-1836-snowfall-in-sydney/

    There has been speculation that it may have been caused by a volcanic eruption in the previous year.

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  • #
    b.nice

    AEMO is finally showing the complete drop off of wind in SA on Thursday afternoon

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    David Maddison

    Assuming we have no wind and no solar production, what is the worst case scenario that can happen?

    30

    • #
      Graeme#4

      That is the absolute KEY to determining exactly how much backup storage would be required if we were to rely solely on solar and wind for our energy. Am now wondering if Tony, in his 800 days of NEM monitoring, was able to determine the worst-case duration? I would expect that it will definitely exceed three days, if not four days.

      20

  • #
    RoHa

    OK, it’s a bit cold. But since we are stuck in that permanent drought that Tim Flannery warned us about, at least it’s dry cold.

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    • #
      b.nice

      “at least it’s dry cold.”

      Been so dry this summer and autumn that I have moss growing on my concrete paths.

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    • #
      yarpos

      Like my relatives in QLD standing knee deep in flood waters, “but at least its warm rain”

      31

  • #
    OldOzzie

    Idiot Labor/Greens/Teals/Liberals at Work – PS Simply Energy have been great – Happy to stay with them

    Dear Dumb Australian Voter,

    At Simply Energy, we work hard to keep our prices low all year round. But like all energy retailers, sometimes we
    need to review our costs based on changes to things like wholesale energy prices and network charges. This is one
    of those times so, here goes.

    Changes to your energy charges

    From 1 July 2022 your electricity and gas charges will change.

    Based on your past usage, we estimate the change in your electricity prices will increase your bill by $1,029.00 per
    year.

    Based on your past usage, we estimate the change in your gas prices will increase your bill by $1,076.00 per year.

    What this means for you

    Your new rates are on the next page.

    But don’t worry, there’ll be no changes to your discounts, rebates, or concessions (where applicable). And just
    so you know, there are no exit fees payable.

    This offer is 1% less than the reference price as at the 1 July 2022.

    We estimate that an average residential customer in Ausgrid with a usage of 3900kWh in the first 12 months on this
    energy plan would pay $1493, based on the rates for DomTOU – TOU set out below. This estimate includes GST and
    any conditional discounts or credits. Your actual bills may differ depending on your actual usage and any future price
    changes. This offer only applies to residential customers on this tariff. The reference price for your network and tariff
    is $1512.

    You can also request meter and consumption data from us which you can use to compare generally available
    energy offers in your area on the Energy Made Easy website at: energymadeeasy.gov.au/offer-search

    We’re here to help

    We like to keep things simple, check out our FAQs at simplyenergy.com.au/pricechange

    Or if you’d like a chat, you can:

    • Reach us through MyAccount: myaccount.simplyenergy.com.au/
    • Chat to us online at simplyenergy.com.au/contact-us (Monday to Friday 8am-8pm AEST and weekends
    8am-5pm AEST).
    • Call us on 13 88 08 (Monday to Friday 8am-7pm AEST).

    Yours sincerely,
    Terence Alvares
    General Manager, Operations

    Changes to your electricity charges

    Simply Energy (ABN 67 269 241 237) is a partnership comprising IPower Pty Ltd (ACN 111 267 228) and IPower 2 Pty Ltd (ACN 070 374 293)
    GPO Box 4408 Melbourne VIC 3001
    Ph: 13 88 08 | simplyenergy.com.au

    Current Charges New Charges effective 1 July 2022

    Supply Charge 0.98802 $/day Supply Charge 0.99440 $/day
    Off-Peak 0.16225 $/kWh Off-Peak 0.23903 $/kWh
    Peak 0.63184 $/kWh Peak 0.93093 $/kWh
    Shoulder 0.23980 $/kWh Shoulder 0.35332 $/kWh

    (All rates are GST Inclusive)

    Changes to your gas charges

    Current Charges New Charges effective 1 July 2022

    Supply Charge 0.60225 $/day Supply Charge 0.60225 $/day
    First 7560 Mj per annum 0.04367 $/Mj First 21 Mj per day 0.06589 $/Mj
    Next 7440 Mj per annum 0.02904 $/Mj Next 21 Mj per day 0.04389 $/Mj
    Next 18000 Mj per annum 0.02695 $/Mj Next 49 Mj per day 0.04070 $/Mj
    Next 969000 Mj per annum 0.02662 $/Mj Next 2655 Mj per day 0.04015 $/Mj
    Next 4002000 Mj per annum 0.02541 $/Mj Next 10964 Mj per day 0.03839 $/Mj

    Remaining Usage per annum 0.01441 $/Mj Remaining Usage per day 0.02178 $/Mj

    (All rates are GST Inclusive)

    Inflation is ?????? – Reserve Bank of Australia governor expects inflation to hit 7% by end of year

    7% – the RBA must be joking

    The Increase for Off Peak/Shoulder/Peak Electricity Charges is 47.5% and 47.5% increase for gas consumption

    Welcome to [email protected] brought to you by Idiot Labor/Greens/Teals/Liberals

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    • #
      mundi

      93c/ kwhour !!?!?!

      Is this real? Almost cheaper to fire up a generator.

      40

    • #
      Robber

      Wow, that’s unbelievable. The Vic govt website shows Simply Energy rates costing $1460/year for Melbourne, while Alinta rates indicate $1140/year.
      But the Simply Energy rates are nowhere near those you quote – 119.47 cents/day, peak 30.91 cents/kWh, off peak 16.95 cents/kWh.

      20

  • #

    It’s not about record cold snaps, it’s more of a long run of below average days. In a sign of how not-warm it is in Australia the sheer number of megawatts being used on the East Coast was the highest ever recorded for May

    A couple of misconceptions there.
    You don’t “use” megawatts, they are a measureement of power demand/supply at one point in time i.e. a rate of current flow.

    You “use” megawatt hours of energy.

    Your graph shows PEAK DEMAND for the month i.e. the highest level of power required at any time during the month. All we know from that is that at ONE POINT IN TIME during the month, demand reached about 31,000 MW. Apart from that instant in time, it tells nothing about the average demand or total energy usage for the month.

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    • #
      Old Cocky

      That’s the area under the curve. The curve shows the instantaneous demand.

      11

      • #

        There’s only one data point for each month – peak demand.

        There is no meaningful “area under the curve”

        00

        • #
          Old Cocky

          Whatever.

          10

          • #
            Old Cocky

            In more detail, summary statistics can provide an indication of a phenomenon, but can’t fully characterise it.
            In this case, multiplying the “instantaneous” maximum by the interval gives the maximum area under the curve for that interval. The longer the interval, the more information is lost.
            For mains electricity, where there needs to be a quite close match between instantaneous load and supply, shorter intervals provide more useful information.

            Anything other than charting (or tabulating) the instantaneous load curve (and how sort does “instantaneous” need to be?) is losing information. All of the summary statistics as above (max, min, average, total along with variance and others) can be derived from that chart or table.

            20

  • #
    Cherry Picker

    How many cherries can a cherry picker pick if her name is Nova?

    13

  • #
    beowulf

    Another one bites the dust.

    As at mid-afternoon today, 16 fire crews are at a fire in a substation at Tallawarra Power Station near Wollongong. One 330,000V transformer is gone and a second is at risk. The station is a state-of-the-art combined cycle natural gas plant.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-06-18/fire-engulfs-part-of-tallawarra-power-station-in-yallah/101165042

    30

    • #
      Ronin

      It’s usually lack of maintenance that does in transformers, oil has to be sampled and analysed regularly.

      50

    • #
      Ronin

      I saw that transformer burning well on the 6pm news, it was still daylight when it happened yet a look at AEMO site for Tallawarra shows it putting out 409Mw of 440Mw.

      30

      • #
        beowulf

        It’s increased then. It was operating at 43% capacity when I looked at about 4.30. They said they had to power down to make it safe for the fire crews.

        30

  • #
    Ronin

    Qld and VIC propping up NSW @ 18:05.

    60

  • #
    another ian

    IIRC it was Phil Holmes that observed that a feature of agricultural enterprises that didn’t have a reasonable business plan was that failure came as a complete suprise.

    Not only agricultural it would seem

    51

  • #
    David Maddison

    I think Australia is more active than any other country in destroying its power supply.

    At least in the US and Canada they are not actively destroying power stations, except in Commiefornia where they’re removing hydroelectric and irrigation dams.

    In Europe they have French nuclear power and Scandinavian hydro power plus I think Once Great Britain and others have stopped destroying power stations.

    Australia is a dumb country and it will get much worse under the Alba-sleazy regime.

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  • #
    David Maddison

    The easiest way to analyse Australia’s power grid is not to count wind and solar since that is not dispatchable power. It is useless and shouldn’t be counted.

    What you have left is dispatchable power in the form of coal, gas, hydro, diesel and gas turbine generators and that’s all we’ve got that counts and we are getting less and less of that.

    The further shutdown of Australian industry will liberate some power however.

    The madness will only (possibly) be corrected If something seriously majorly bad happens.

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  • #
    Ronin

    The only thing keeping the lights on at the moment is coal and gas, the two most maligned(by Green loons) energy sources, wind and solar are useless no matter how much of it you have, neither will operate when conditions aren’t just right, a real Goldilocks scene if ever there was one.

    70

  • #
    David Maddison

    Whose idea was it to allow non-dispatchable power sources to feed into the grid? Was it Howard’s? And why was this ever allowed?

    91

  • #
    Zane

    Energy Australia’s big Yallourn brown coal power station is due to be phased out in 2028. There’s another 1480 MW gone.

    40

  • #
    Ronin

    “The climate experts didn’t warn us we’d need more electricity for winter in Australia.”

    Just wait till everyone comes home from work or whatever and wants to charge their electric car/ute/truck/bike/mower/tools/, ain’t it going to be great !!!!!!!!

    21

  • #
    Honk R Smith

    It occurs to me Oz and NZ might be good places for the last field test of broad social experiments.
    Like a ‘reset’ type of thing.
    Or “how long can we lock them down” and “how many injections will they take”. (Didn’t Jacinda recently drop by Blackrock in NYC?)
    Isolated small continent and island.
    Hard to get to. ‘
    Harder to get out of.
    If things go wrong, just close the hatch.
    Wonder if Klaus has considered this?
    Davos needs me.

    (Dang, Canada may be disproving my theory. Oz and NZ don’t seem to have any political leaders that are either really good looking or senile … hmm?)

    41

  • #
    CHRIS

    A cold snap at the beginning of winter…BIG DEAL. Long term predictions indicate a mild winter. As for electricity capacity, COME OFF IT! Weather (believe it or not) is somewhat unpredictable. Remember the old saying… “One Swallow does not make a summer”.

    31

  • #
    another ian

    Somewhat O/T but a “solar summary” via Tony Heller

    https://realclimatescience.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/Image-1042.png

    00

    • #
      another ian

      And grid managers better refine their juggling act

      “$Trillions For Nothing…Damning Report: Green Energies Grow Only “Paltry Two Percent in Entire Decade”!”

      https://wattsupwiththat.com/2022/06/19/trillions-for-nothingdamning-report-green-energies-grow-only-paltry-two-percent-in-entire-decade/

      20

    • #
      another ian

      The “solar summary image missed this –

      “President Obama’s Taxpayer-Backed Green Energy Failures

      Evergreen Solar ($25 million)*
      SpectraWatt ($500,000)*
      Solyndra ($535 million)*
      Beacon Power ($43 million)*
      Nevada Geothermal ($98.5 million)
      SunPower ($1.2 billion)
      First Solar ($1.46 billion)
      Babcock and Brown ($178 million)
      EnerDel’s subsidiary Ener1 ($118.5 million)*
      Amonix ($5.9 million)
      Fisker Automotive ($529 million)
      Abound Solar ($400 million)*
      A123 Systems ($279 million)*
      Willard and Kelsey Solar Group ($700,981)*
      Johnson Controls ($299 million)
      Brightsource ($1.6 billion)
      ECOtality ($126.2 million)
      Raser Technologies ($33 million)*
      Energy Conversion Devices ($13.3 million)*
      Mountain Plaza, Inc. ($2 million)*
      Olsen’s Crop Service and Olsen’s Mills Acquisition Company ($10 million)*
      Range Fuels ($80 million)*
      Thompson River Power ($6.5 million)*
      Stirling Energy Systems ($7 million)*
      Azure Dynamics ($5.4 million)*
      GreenVolts ($500,000)
      Vestas ($50 million)
      LG Chem’s subsidiary Compact Power ($151 million)
      Nordic Windpower ($16 million)*
      Navistar ($39 million)
      Satcon ($3 million)*
      Konarka Technologies Inc. ($20 million)*
      Mascoma Corp. ($100 million)”

      21

  • #
    Geoff Sherrington

    So what is new?
    Enjoy Clarke and Dawe from 5 years ago.
    They capture the essence in 2 min 36 secs. Geoff S
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ELaBzj7cn14

    00

  • #
    CHRIS

    Hey Old Cocky… I love a few hot days in summer. If you don’t know what the saying means, then leave off

    00