JoNova

A science presenter, writer, speaker & former TV host; author of The Skeptic's Handbook (over 200,000 copies distributed & available in 15 languages).


Handbooks


Advertising


Australian Speakers Agency



GoldNerds

The nerds have the numbers on precious metals investments on the ASX



The Skeptics Handbook

Think it has been debunked? See here.

The Skeptics Handbook II

Climate Money Paper



Archives

Books

Tuesday Open Thread

10 out of 10 based on 7 ratings

221 comments to Tuesday Open Thread

  • #
    Annie

    Am I first in this morning?

    It has been heaving down with rain overnight and still is.

    70

    • #
      Geoffrey Williams

      Where are you Annie? Have you got your umbrella?
      Regards GeoffW

      30

      • #
        Annie

        I live in Nth Central Vic. It’s still raining but staying inside is appealing atm! The wind was very strong for a while in the middle of the night. Umbrellas will be used sometime I guess. The sheep look a bit disconsolate but the cattle don’t seem to care. Our border collie is damp and dirty and smelling very soggy doggy…yuk. He is given a good run early in the morning by my other half and has a good rub down but is still whiffy.

        110

        • #
          Sceptical Sam

          OK. So I’ll join the fun up top.

          I’ve often wondered about the science of whiffy woofers. Why do they get whiffy when they get wet?

          Know that and there’s a fortune to be made with an anti-whiff wonder spray for woofers. Especially if it works.

          40

          • #
            Annie

            We can’t very well bath him every day, let alone every time he goes outside. The worst he is is after he discovers some lovely smelly wombat poo (phew!). We once picked him up from boarding kennels; they gave him a bath before he came home. He found the wombat output while we were surveying the scenery and rolled in it. I sent a message to the kennels to the effect of the dog thanking them for making him smell nice but he had other tastes!

            50

            • #
              Sceptical Sam

              Not much work has been done on this, but one 2002 presentation I was able to whistle-up found that some of the volatile compounds in dog hair show increases when wetted.

              The five greatest of these were benzaldehyde, phenylaldehyde, acetaldehyde, phenol, and 2-methyl butanal. These showed increases of 32, 6, 5, 5 and 4 times the dry hair value.

              Interestingly, others decreased when wet; straight chain aldehydes (hexanal, heptanal, and decanal) being the main ones.

              Other changes were dog dependent, while isovaleric acid, hexanal, and heptanal showed the largest decreases upon water addition to dog hair.

              This puts a whole new meaning to “the hair of the dog”, as a treatment for another very common affliction.

              https://www.vin.com/apputil/content/defaultadv1.aspx?pId=11147&id=3846472

              50

          • #
            another ian

            From Baxter Black observations – “Nobody loves a wet dog”

            20

            • #
              Sceptical Sam

              Just to complete this silliness. Please excuse.

              The whiff.

              Annie’s whiffy woofer was wunning after wabbits

              When wham! He was walloped

              By a whale of wet wain.

              Wiped down, he was treated to the warmth of the wug.

              And, Annie waited ’til the woofer was de-wiffed.

              I did apologize before you wead it. 🙂

              100

              • #
                Annie

                Just as well Sceptical Sam! Very funny. He’s not too bad tonight. I give him a brief runaround chasing after torchlight before bed; he’s already been out, in the rain.The torchlight chase somehow became a habit after he followed me out to check the cover over the limes. Our border collie in England used to chase the reflection off my watch face.
                We have no rabbits here atm; his predecessor chased and ate them all. Well, he was a labrador! a very fast running one at that.
                Nearly an inch of rain the last 24hrs. (24.0mm)

                20

          • #
            Deano

            I LOVE the smell of a wet dog. I live alone too.

            30

    • #
      RicDre

      Half way around world away here in Northeastern Ohio, USA it also rained but no really strong storms. It is supposed to rain here off-and-on for the next four days. Its a good thing I got the grass cut before it started raining.

      20

      • #
        David Wojick

        We are almost global neighbors, Ric, as I am in NE West Virginia, just a few hundred miles away. That much closer to Fantasyland DC. No rain here and we really need it. May was so dry the grass stopped growing! The streams look like August.

        Reminds me of my favorite climate joke. Stranger asks the farmer “Think it will rain?” After a bit the farmer replies “It always has.”

        110

        • #
          RicDre

          I am not familiar with NE West Virginia, most of my travels in West Virginia have been south on I77 down through Charleston and Beckley. I did hear there were some counties in NW Virginia that were talking about succeeding from Virgina and joining NE West Virginia.

          30

        • #
          Geoff Sherrington

          David,
          True story. Farmer from Tasmania interviewed on TV the morning after a strong wind storm. Jock: “Sure was windy here last night!” Farmer: “Sure was, wind blew down a lot of trees that hadn’t been blown down before”.
          Geoff S

          130

  • #
    Rowjay

    As of 1 July 2021, Canberra residents can expect a typical annual bill increase of $241 for households and $1,476 for small businesses – an increase of about $5 a week for residential customers.

    The price hike comes at a confusing time for customers, with wholesale electricity prices significantly lower in the last year, and an anticipated reference price reduction in July 2021 for those living in the surrounding regions of New South Wales.

    The latest price increase is attributed to the ACT’s 100 per cent renewable energy target established in 2020, which requires Evoenergy to pay for large-scale wind and solar generators to meet renewable energy targets.

    Well done ACT Govt – everyone else in Australia take note – being a crash test dummy hurts! What a huge whack for small business to take in these awkward economic times.

    290

    • #
      MP

      They got to 100% renewable by buying carbon credits. When up is down, Canbrainiens will think that is cheaper.

      120

    • #
      Analitik

      It’s such a shame that the ACT is buffered from the unreliability caused by intermittency of renewable generation and only has the burden of increased cost. They are only experiencing half the effects of the “transition”

      90

    • #
      Earl

      Prices up and credits down. Beware the great whittle if you have solar panels.
      On 3 June our energy provider emailed a summary of our latest quarter bill to 1 June. The size of the credit was way down on usual but then we did have lots of rain in the quarter. On further reading of the stuff under the heading “Useful Information” we find the advice that:

      “Changes to your retailer solar feed-in tariff

      From 1 April 2021, your retailer solar feed-in tariff has decreased, from 8.0c to 6.0c.”

      Now I’m open to the possibility that they advised us separately, ahead of 1 April, and we just failed to see it so will live with this. What we wont live with of course is the fact that the bill credits show 2 totals one for 315kWh which must be from the start of the period (4 March) to 31 March and another total of 503kWh which would be the second half of the period (1April-1June). Trouble is while they correctly applied the Qld government legislated 44c + their 8c tariff (52c) to the 315kWh total when it came to the rest of the period they applied….. .05c. Yip they dropped the .44c totally and hit the 5 key instead of the 6.
      So that’s $226 of credit meant for us sitting unrecorded with them that we have to now chase up. One small job to reprogram one figure results in big mistake with two figures. Go figure.

      30

      • #
        Ted1

        I wonder how much of this it’ll take to get the sheeple to understand what a scam is?

        10

      • #
        David A

        If you have excess production, you have very good reason to get an ev or hybrid.
        In California the utilities pay about 2.6 cents per KWH excess production. If you have say the Rav 4 prime, with 43 miles ev range, and pump that excess production into it you are getting the equivalent of about 60 cents per KWH. ( plus that vehicle has a plus 600 mile range.
        However it only works for the retired or work from home crowd. This turns a 7.5 year solar pay back into 4 years.

        00

    • #
      Tarquin Wombat-Carruthers

      Canberra is the Australian counterpart of Washington DC. Americans who live outside DC refer to it as “A diamond-shaped city, located on the Potomac, and surrounded by reality”! The ‘surrounded by reality’ part applies equally well to our national capital.

      80

    • #
      Yarpos

      Sitting in the middle of the primarily coal and gas fired NSW grid, charging customers more to pretend that you are 100% “renewable” , when all you have actually done is shuffled contracts. Its quite delusional.

      30

  • #
    Geoffrey Williams

    Dry here in Sydney and not too cold this morning (12deg C)
    Just lit the woodburner nice to see the flames . .
    GeoffW

    60

    • #
      el gordo

      Cut-off low distorts jetstream.

      https://www.weatherzone.com.au/synoptic.jsp?d=0

      On the central tablelands beyond the Blue Mountains the winters are always cold and long, this event will give you a taste of our weather.

      20

      • #
        GlenM

        Very interesting, but not funny. Up around the Gulf Carpentaria for a month…30c to 14 nocturnal. Great stuff! Lots of fresh fish an crabs to be had. BOM says 4c for home tomorrow with moderate snowfalls. Ha!

        11

    • #
      Earl

      …mmmm “in Sydney” ….”just lit” …. “nice to see flames”… With todays cancel culture you need to choose your words more carefully, unless of course you already had no intention of joining the metro fire brigade and much less the rural one. lol

      30

  • #
    David Maddison

    On the last thread a Leftist referred to someone as a “drama queen”.

    Are Leftists even allowed to say that anymore? Isn’t that “offensive” to someone or other?

    151

    • #
      Klem

      It is probably offensive to someone. But that’s no surprise, bigotry and disrimination is what the Left is all about, it’s all they have.

      150

    • #

      When I get criticised for the term “drama queen” I tell them that the term applies to male, female, indeterminate or otherwise not specified.

      30

    • #
      Ross

      Clearly had no idea how “passionate” Zelenko has been in initially treating his own patients and then conveying his success to the world.

      30

    • #
      David A

      I read that comment. Unbelievable, claiming someone is a drama queen for pointing out the very likely human origin of this virus and the known suppression of effective life saving preventive medication that very likely would have saved millions of lives, and trillions of dollars of willful economic damage.

      The left always attempts to marginalize the messenger.

      30

  • #
    Ronin

    Paluszjuk, had to get Pfizer, might have to go to Tokyo, got a tetanus jab, the dog bit me ( hope the dog is ok), got my flu jab, what do you want from me, jibber jibber, waffle waffle, blah blah blah.

    90

  • #
    David Maddison

    The Biden Maladministration in the US is now going free range with telling lies about the past or erasing history. They are following Orwell’s manual to the letter.

    Tony Heller explains in his latest video.

    https://youtu.be/raR_IkUD7is

    Every record has been destroyed or falsified, every book has been rewritten, every picture has been repainted, every statue and street and building has been renamed, every date has been altered. And that process is continuing day by day and minute by minute. History has stopped. Orwell, 1984.

    220

  • #
    Ronin

    Huge crime bust globally, trojan horse app got them, dreamed up by our AFP guys, where are all the top brains in the FBI, CIA, Interpol etc etc, why couldn’t they come up with it 20 years ago.

    80

  • #
    David Maddison

    Good news from Texas:

    Democrats Panic As Republicans Celebrate Mayoral Win In Town That Is 85% Latino: ‘We’re In Big Trouble’

    https://www.dailywire.com/news/democrats-panic-as-republicans-celebrate-mayoral-win-in-town-that-is-85-latino-were-in-big-trouble

    170

    • #
      Hanrahan

      The ever racist O’Biden himself said that Latinos could not be taken for granted as blacks can be.* They see he as phony as a $3 bill.

      *He didn’t use those words but mine is an honest translation.

      10

  • #
    David Maddison

    For the next US Presidential election, assuming it is possible to have a fair and free election by then, what do you think of President Trump running with Governor Ron DeSantis as VP?

    Then for the term after that DeSantis as President with maybe Ted Cruz as VP or Dan Crenshaw?

    100

    • #
      Peter C

      Donald Trump will be 75 next week. I think he should be president right now. Maybe when the audit train gets through he will be.

      However by 2024 I think DeSantis is a better bet.

      121

      • #
        R.B.

        Donald Trump showed the Republicans that they didn’t need to appease the sensitivities of the doctors’ wives and the majority are awake to the minority in the media, academia and PS having a far-left agenda with a boiling frog attitude towards the great unwashed.

        But you did see him struggle. While he didn’t recommend injecting bleach, that was a gaffe resulting from being tired. And unlike Biden, he can’t afford to have a bad day 6 out 7. He will be almost 10 years older than Reagan was in 1980 at the next election. Its just way too old unless a protected species like Pelosi.

        30

        • #
          David A

          The man was indefatigable as President. What he battled was and is unimaginably large and well funded. ( The entire main stream media, the deep state in league with international fascist corporations, the RINOS in his own party, China’s years of infiltration into US politics and international business, etc. ). And he was winning, forcing China to the negotiable table, establishing bilateral and trilateral trade deals, forging great relations with India and Southeast Asia, inspiring nations around the world to go against the globalists. Bringing home 600 k manufacturing jobs, setting up real gains in employment and earnings, especially among the US minorities, inspiring the “ walk away “ movement, stabilizing the Middle East, etc…
          President Trump was winning.

          I know of exactly zero people that could have done what he did. If he is not suffering signs of reduced mental capacity like dementia, and is willing to run, he has my vote!

          70

      • #

        I would like to see Trump in Nancy Pellosi’s role as Speaker in the Senate.

        40

        • #
          Hanrahan

          There is talk that he will stand for congress in a Florida seat next year so he can push for impeachment of Biden.

          Let’s see. I think they will win back the majority in the house which would mean they could impeach Biden, fail to get the super majority in the Senate, but have the same bragging rights the dems had.

          40

        • #
          RicDre

          “I would like to see Trump in Nancy Pellosi’s role as Speaker in the Senate.”

          Actually, Nancy Pelosi is the Speaker of the House of Representatives. The Vice President (currently Kamala Harris) fills a somewhat similar role in the Senate (President of the Senate) but doesn’t have a vote in the Senate unless there is a tie in the vote in which case the Vice President can cast a vote to break the tie.

          30

        • #

          Yes. My mistake, RicDre.

          20

      • #
        Hanrahan

        DeSantis standing beside Trump at rallies would be unbeatable. We are yet to see how much backbone he has, promising so far.

        30

    • #
      Chris

      Or Mike Pompeo?

      30

  • #
  • #
    Ronin

    Fauci has admitted funding Wuhan virus institute to create an unknown virus, ‘so the US wouldn’t suffer a pandemic’, well how’s that working out. This clown should be put on trial as a known ‘Dr Death’ criminal.

    180

  • #
    David Maddison

    I copied this from a Wikipedia discussion.

    QUOTE
    The (Non) Logic of Conspiracy Theory Accusations

    The term “conspiracy theorist” as it is almost always used is simply nothing more than a logically self-contradictory ad hominem attack.

    The reason the charge of “conspiracy theorist” is logically self-contradictory is because everyone with an I.Q. high enough to tie their shoes is a believer in conspiracies. Governments are the biggest promulgators of belief in conspiracies–witness all the laws against “conspiracy” and all the criminal charges of “conspiracy” brought against people. The offical U.S. government story regarding such events as, e.g., the Pearl Harbor attack, the Gulf of Tonkin incident, the 1993 World Trade Center bombing, the 1995 Oklahoma City bombing, and the 9/11 attacks are charges by the U.S. government of conspiracy having been conducted against it by other governments or by non-government terrorist groups.

    Thus, those making the charge of “conspiracy theorist” are also believers and/or promulgators of notions regarding conspiracies–often far more so than the person being accused as being a “conspiracy theorist.”

    A conspiracy is simply when two or more people formulate a plan which involves doing something untoward to another person or other people (of which plan may or may not be kept secret, i.e., secrecy is not a necessary component of conspiracy).

    It certainly says something regarding the intellectual blinders one making the charge of “conspiracy theorist” is wearing that they don’t even stop to realize the logically self-contradictory nature of this charge, as going by the literal meaning of the two words in the phrase “conspiracy theorist.” For the one making this charge is himself a believer in conspiracies.

    And so it is here where we come to the real meaning of the term “conspiracy theorist” as it is used by those making the charge. What they mean by this charge is that the accused believes in and/or promotes ideas regarding conspiracies which have not been offically sanctioned by the accuser’s government–whereas the accuser making this charge believes in and/or promotes ideas regarding conspiracies which his government has deemed appropriate for the public to believe in. The difference between the two is that the accuser believes in and/or promotes ideas regarding conspiracies which are statist in their implications, in that they merely reiterate the offical government line–whereas the accused believes in and/or promotes ideas regarding conspiracies which are anti-statist in their implications, in that they go against what the accuser’s government would have the public believe.

    Also, the term “theory” as it is used in this logically self-contradictory ad hominem attack is misapplied and inappropriate. The term “theory” suggests a principle or law of operation. Thus you have the General Theory of Relativity and the Theory of Evolution. Yet almost always the logically self-contradictory ad hominem charge of “conspiracy theorist” is against those who are making specific claims regarding historical events. To illustrate this point, if someone says that it rained over the Bahamas on September 2, 2004 are they then a “theorist” for saying so?– 09:44, 5 October 2005 (UTC)

    90

    • #
      Dave in the States

      Conspiracy theory accusations are a way of shutting people up and shutting down debate.

      120

    • #
      UK-Weather Lass

      It has always amused me that both flat earthers and round earthers are right and wrong about planet earth’s pumpkin shaped surface, neatly packaged as a blotate spheroid for those who love a label. Most conspiracies would appear to need a lot of ‘intelligence’ to set up, like a clever ‘magic’ trick, and taking advantage of an opportunity to hide something or deceive people seems to be in the same category and can be repeated multiple times without discovery by denying or keeping a secret about how the trick has been performed. The Eastern and Middle Eastern populations once called these people alchemists, astrologers, soothsayers etc., and they were seriously clever discoverers of much that we have discovered since their beginnings.

      Our current crop of cleverness is not so good but has the safety curtain of MSM to rely upon but it’ll fall down very soon.

      20

  • #
    John R Smith

    Hello down there, Summer GW here in US.

    Our POTUS is 78.
    Our Speaker of the House is 80 (or close).
    The Great Dr. Fauci is 80.
    A Senator from CA is 87.
    Lots of Congress is 75 plus.
    Especially since once you get in, it’s a hard job to loose.

    I was just wondering If you folks in Australia also enjoy the benefits of aged wisdom in your political leadership?
    Obviously, their work is both healthful and enjoyable.
    (Slowly killing me, but never mind.)
    Same down there?

    140

  • #
    NuThink

    Residents of slums in New Delhi seem to have very good immune systems. Saw this report on France24 on early morning TV.

    https://www.facebook.com/FRANCE24.English/videos/covid-19-in-india-new-delhi-slums-fairing-better-than-expected/914184219142991/

    But also it appears that Black Fungus is affecting many people who have been treated for Covid-19.

    60

  • #
    MP

    This is suited to yesterdays thread, this lady does a good dig. All links to the video subject are in the +more section.
    She does some good work and has a 3 part series on the absolute corruption of the Pharmaceutical industry, called the Medical Mafia.
    57 mins
    https://www.bitchute.com/video/uQv9byvtBup1/

    10

  • #
    RicDre

    @thenorthface Gets a ‘pie in the face’ for virtue signaling without understanding their own products

    The North Face Rejects Making Clothing for an Oil and Gas Company, Is Clueless Concerning the Source of Their Products

    In the news today is a hilarious case of lack of self-awareness and hypocrisy coming from The North Face, a popular outdoor clothing company. The North Face refused to make jackets for an oil and gas firm, saying the company’s products “didn’t align with its brand standards.” This shows an amazing lack of awareness because their outdoor wear fabrics are almost entirely created from oil.

    Synthetic fabrics, for instance, acetate, acrylic, nylon, polyester, and spandex are all made from petroleum. In fact, a whopping two-thirds of our clothing is made from petroleum derived synthetic fibers.

    The North Face’s faux pas started last year when the company refused to manufacture jackets for Texas oil and gas company, Innovex Downhole Solutions. Innovex was looking for a Christmas gift for its employees. In December 2020, they ordered jackets with an Innovex logo from The North Face, as they had done previously.

    https://wattsupwiththat.com/2021/06/07/thenorthface-gets-a-pie-in-the-face-for-virtue-signaling-without-understanding-their-own-products/

    160

    • #
      Analitik

      Well worth watching because Chris Wright points out that it is the productivity increase from the use of fossil fuels (OK, he states oil & gas but any reasonable analysis will include coal as well) that has allowed for the leisure time that is available to those living in developed nations, let alone all the sophisticated equipment used for most leisure activities.

      Greta really should be paying attention.

      80

  • #
    David Maddison

    “Stella the talking dog.”

    Do you believe it or not?

    https://youtu.be/8m-xupLJc4M

    20

    • #
      Chris

      Stella is using her “buzzer board to communicate . Koko, the gorilla learnt sign language and other primates have also been taught. Horses will ‘talk” to you both verbally and non verbally, if you are an astute observer of body language and you reciprocate. If you ignore their messaging then after while they ignore you also. I’m grateful that my dog can’t vocalise words because she has enough to say now.

      So yes – I believe it.

      40

    • #
      Yarpos

      I beleive we assume a lot about the animal kingdom because it convenient to do so.

      30

    • #
      Yonniestone.

      That’s nothing there’s thousands of talking asses in parliaments around the world…….

      110

  • #
    David Maddison

    What possible legitimate scientific reason could there have been for Wuhan “gain of function” experiments?

    I can see no legitimate reason to take a bat virus and genetically engineer it to make it more transmissible to humans.

    The only conceivable reason is to create a bioweapon.

    140

    • #
      MP

      And the only reason to create a bioweapon is to use it.

      110

      • #
        Ian

        Yes but no against yourself. Do you really believe the Chinese would have deliberately used it on their own people? If so you’ll need some pretty good evidence to support that contention

        00

        • #
          MP

          Of course not, I am as likely to believe that the Chinese starved millions of their own people and shot the change.

          You live in a strange world Ian, devoid of reality.

          10

    • #
      David Wojick

      Which worked!

      70

    • #
      R.B.

      I suspect that it was obvious that SARS-CoV-2 would happen, natural or helped along by unfriendly governments/terrorists, and the logic was best to be prepared. MERS was natural but too deadly and not easily transmissable by humans to become a pandemic. The ‘Middle East’ in the acronym was why both the US and China were interested. Its still infecting people.

      Makes sense if you keep it in a lab until you find a cure.

      10

      • #
        MP

        Human trials for the AZ not a vaccine started in mid March 2020, they already had it!

        30

        • #
          R.B.

          The Jenner Institute at the University of Oxford has agreed a contract with Italian manufacturer Advent Srl to produce the first batch of a novel coronavirus vaccine for clinical testing.

          The vaccine ‘seed stock’ is currently being produced at the University’s Clinical Biomanufacturing Facility, and will be transferred to Advent who will initially produce 1,000 doses for the first clinical trials of the vaccine, ChAdOx1 nCoV-19.

          The Jenner Institute has been working on a vaccine against another coronavirus, Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS), which has been shown to induce strong immune responses against MERS after a single dose of the vaccine in the first clinical trial which took place in Oxford. A second clinical trial of the MERS vaccine is underway in Saudi Arabia, which is where most MERS cases have occurred. The same approach to making the vaccine is being taken for the novel coronavirus vaccine.

          As I said, they were preparing for something more virulent than MERS

          40

  • #

    All four Units still off line at the Callide power plant, and that’s now 14 days.

    Also, one Unit each at Gladstone, Kogan Creek, Stanwell, and Tarong are off line as well.

    No wonder Queensland is having (really) high prices for wholesale power lately.

    That’s a loss of 3299MW of power, and that’s 40% of Queensland’s coal fired power total Nameplate.

    Ever wondered why Queensland had consistently the lowest cost electricity in the Country.

    Hint, it’s probably because of the availability of so much coal fired power, now highlighted by high prices when there’s not so much coal fired power available.

    Isn’t it funny when logic kicks in.

    And Queensland can still send 480MW South to NSW, as NSW sends 490MW South to Victoria, as Tasmania sends 250MW North into Victoria, and then Victoria sends 180MW West into South Australia.

    Brr! Turn on the heaters, eh!

    Tony.

    320

    • #
      Ronin

      Thanks Tony, winter is usually the time for programmed maintenance on the boilers and turbines, not sure if this is the real reason for the delay.

      30

    • #

      Shocking, isn’t it, that a State which relies so much on coal fired power has to do without.

      I mean there’s only 22 Units at 8 Power plants.

      And here we have 8 Units off line. Eight out of 22. A nameplate loss of 3299MW, or 40% of the total coal fired Nameplate.

      And yet those remaining 14 Units delivered around 4600MW of what was needed in the State at the usual morning peak. That’s those Units operating at a Capacity Factor of 95%.

      Even taking into account those shut down Units, the Capacity Factor of ALL coal fired power in Queensland at that morning peak was 56.5%.

      There are only 2 wind plants in Queensland, for a total Nameplate of 632MW. At that same morning peak, those two wind plants were delivering around 15MW at a Capacity Factor of 2.3%

      (sarc)Coal fired power is just soooooo unreliable eh!(/sarc)

      Tony.

      180

      • #
        Robber

        Winter is certainly increasing demand across the AEMO grid. From OpenNEM, weekly generation since the start of May:
        3,732 GWhr; 3,868 GWhr; 3,957 Gwhr; 3,976 GWhr; 4,053 GWhr. Peak generation on Monday at 6pm: 29,300 MW, minimum overnight 19,300 MW.
        And average prices for those weeks:
        $54; $64; $136; $184; $178 (Qld blackout impacting the last 2 weeks)
        Interestingly, for the last week, Open NEM shows weekly price by source:
        Solar $69/MWhr, supplied 8%; Wind $75 for 8%; Hydro $148 for 9%; Gas CCGT $$273 for 5%; Gas OCGT $460 for 1%; Black coal $236 for 51%; Brown coal $64 for 18%.

        40

  • #
    OriginalSteve

    Oh joy …. out with the useful, in with the…

    Funnily enough, when you own a horse,you shovel a lot of this. ..

    https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/agl-unveils-plan-to-transform-liddell-coal-site-with-solar-hydro-plant-20210607-p57ysf.html

    “Australia’s biggest power supplier, AGL, is proposing to build a solar-and-hydro energy facility at the site of its Liddell coal-fired power station in NSW once the plant closes down in 2023.

    “AGL has been collaborating with Melbourne-based developer RayGen on an Australian-first “concentrated solar thermal” project, which uses a field of rotational mirrors to capture sunlight and stores the energy in water reservoirs. As more coal power exits the market in coming years, advocates of the technology say it could be an alternative to gas and big batteries in supporting renewable energy uptake.

    40

    • #
      MP

      I like Chinese, I like Chinese.
      Approved foreign investment, by the SM gruberment.

      In March 2015, RayGen signed a deal with state-owned renewables giant, China Three Gorges.
      https://www.unsw.edu.au/engineering/alumni-industry/industry/industry-partnerships/raygen-resources-partnership-worth-billion-dollars

      20

      • #
        Chad

        MP
        June 8, 2021 at 10:05 am · Reply
        I like Chinese, I like Chinese.
        Approved foreign investment, by the SM gruberment.

        In March 2015, RayGen signed a deal with state-owned renewables giant, China Three Gorges.

        Aannnnd.. so what ?
        That would apear to be a SALES agreement with 3Gs , worth $1m to Raygen. ,
        Where is the Foreign Investment mentioned ?
        …and a partnership (??) with UNSW for tech development

        00

    • #
      Ronin

      Let’s hope it can produce 2000MW 24/7.

      10

      • #
        Chad

        Ronin
        June 8, 2021 at 10:57 am ·
        Let’s hope it can produce 2000MW 24/7.

        Assuming that it uses water storage at 100deg C , and can achieve 70% efficiency….
        .. Then that 2000MW continuous output would require..
        …20,000 MW of solar input
        …480,000 tonnes of hot water storage !

        So dont hold out waiting for that to happen !

        100

    • #
      Chad

      #
      OriginalSteve
      June 8, 2021 at 9:53 am · .
      “AGL has been collaborating with Melbourne-based developer RayGen on an Australian-first “concentrated solar thermal” project, which uses a field of rotational mirrors to capture sunlight and stores the energy in water reservoirs.

      Ok ?
      So how does that work ?
      Storing solar energy as hot water to use later for power generation ?
      Can you store Super heated steam ?
      Why not the Molten Salt technology that is spruked as the established method ?
      Have these guys not followed the journey of Concentrated Solar Thermal and its lack of technical or financial success ?

      100

      • #
        Chad

        I found this quote in the comments section on this page..
        https://theconversation.com/how-heat-can-be-used-to-store-renewable-energy-130549

        “The ability to store energy as heat is quite different than the ability to generate electricity” but this is precisely considered in the mentioned calculation. Hot water, at a temperature range between 15°C and 100°C can store about 100kWh/m3 of thermal energy (heat). When this is converted to exergy (i.e. potential to extract useful work), it goes down to 12kWh/m3. While exergy and electricity are not strictly the same, they are equivalent for most practical purposes

        If correct (?.) that does not suggest a great efficiency unless they boost the temp up into the steam zone.
        But even then , it seems the best that can be expected is 60-70% ,!

        40

        • #
          Richard Owen No.3

          Carnot efficiency (theoretical) = 21.4% maximum for a cycle of 100 down to 20℃ (although the equation uses Kelvin).

          In laymen’s terms costly and completely useless, time to sell your AGL shares.

          20

          • #
            Chad

            RO3
            The Raygen system uses the Rankin cycle for energy recovery
            Their technology is different and somewhat interesting compared to other “Thermal Solar” systems,….but i still do not believe it is a viable alternative to simpler options, such as battery storage.
            https://raygen.com/technology

            01

            • #
              Chad

              That should be the. “Rankine Cycle”..
              ..or to be specific,…. the Organic Rankine Cycle…..(ORC).

              00

      • #
        Serp

        And when they empty the heat out of the reservoir, voila we have a skating rink; I see win win all round this, where’s Matt Kean?

        60

  • #
    David Maddison

    If President Imposter Biden wasn’t US President he’d be in the dementia ward of a nursing home.

    120

    • #
      Hanrahan

      He is years from the point where a caring family could no longer cope. I come from a family of long livers so have direct experience.

      00

    • #
      Serp

      I think his depth of cunning and sloth is highly underestimated. The bio has it that he told his first wife Neilia that he would be in congress by age thirty and then president so the ambition’s always been there.

      Nobody’s insisting he do the cognitive test as the previous incumbent in his job did https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/12175283/trump-montreal-cognitive-assessment-test-aced/ although it’s early days.

      40

      • #
        Richard Jenkins

        Biden refused to do a cognitive test and insisted it was insulting to suggest he was on cocaine.
        Clearly he thought cognitive tests were to detect cocaine and this reaction proves that he would fail a cognitive test.

        60

  • #
    Peter C

    Did Victoria need to lock down to stop Covid?

    It seems to me that we would be in much the same position now if we had not locked down.
    Case tracing has been going well. Very little community spread beyond a few isolated clusters. People have been behaving sensibly.

    Why not just give general advice and ask people who are unwell to get tested?

    91

    • #
      Lance

      according to SkyNews, Vic police are acting rather harshly. See Vid at link:

      https://www.independentsentinel.com/truth-from-down-under/

      Things ought not be this way.

      90

      • #
        Yonniestone.

        There is no police here anymore, just a political para military force.

        Police: Also called police force. an organized civil force for maintaining order, preventing and detecting crime, and enforcing the laws.

        The laws or rule of law have been circumvented by self governance and the removal of separation of powers, all of which is illegal but nobody seems to care.

        50

    • #
      robert rosicka

      We should have copied the NSW approach the instant the breakout started. Lock down specific areas where the virus is not the majority of the state where it wasn’t.

      40

    • #
      Ross

      We have a CMHO in Victoria who is a catastrophist, no doubt. We have people advising the Vic CMHO who are academics without any real world experience. I think behind the scenes, there are health unions also having influence because its a Labor party. There is a media who love the hype – all that science stuff its so sexy. Their latest angle is talking about genomic sequencing. Next the will be publishing stories about amino acid chemistry. The govt just keeps playing bait and switch to hide their own failings and the predominantly young media keep falling for it.

      80

      • #
        David Maddison

        The Vicdanistan Chief Health Officer is a “professor” but has no PhD, only a GP degree MBBS, a master’s in public health and only has a relatively small number of what seem like to me lightweight publications to his name. His professorship was conferred by the Monash University Vice Chancellor as far as I know. With no Phd and few hard hitting publications, the professorship is almost like an honourary degree.

        Here are his publications.

        I am not sure how many of these are peer-reviewed. When I went to university you needed to do a lot better than this to get a professorship.

        https://au.linkedin.com/in/brett-sutton-4b574456

        Do anaesthetists need to wear surgical masks in the operating theatre? A literature review with evidence-based recommendations

        An Afghanistan Experience

        A Vajra Brother Mandala: A Tibetan Buddhist Journal Jan 2007 An exploration of the parallels between Buddhism and the practice of Emergency Medicine

        Prevalence of trachoma in three Ethiopian Refugee Camps

        Developing and maintaining sustainable communities while adequately addressing social and environmental justice issues.

        Designing and managing sustainable settlements with appropriate housing and infrastructure.

        Timor-Leste Demographic and Health Survey 2009-10

        Barriers to treated bednet usage in Timor-Leste: an exploratory study

        An exploratory study of treated bednets in Timor-Leste: patterns of intended and alternative use

        A case of Leptospirosis linked to increased rainfall and concomitant rodent plague.

        A cluster of mumps cases in Melbourne, Victoria linked to international transmission

        The look of leptospirosis in Victoria — recent trends

        An outbreak of legionellosis associated with a car wash

        Legionellosis surveillance in Victoria

        Commercial driving as a risk factor for legionellosis in Victoria

        Non-O1, non-O139 Vibrio cholera bacteraemia in an Australian population

        The Tortoise and the Hare: Polio, Guinea Worm and the Race to Eradication

        One Health approach to controlling a Q Fever outbreak on an Australian goat farm

        Travel Destinations and Sxual Behavior as Indicators of Antibiotic Resistant Shigella Strains-Victoria, Australia

        A risk stratification approach to assessing for true cases of measles in a highly vaccinated population

        Palliative care in humanitarian crises: always something to offer

        Q-vax Q fever vaccine failures, Victoria, Australia 1994-2013

        A non-healing ulcer in a healthy young woman

        50

      • #
        Geoff Sherrington

        Ross,
        A few weeks ago I sent a 10 page letter to the Medical Journal of Australia asking it to retract a paper by Sutton at all from the Vic health Dept that was not only wide eyed activism, but contained pledges to assist with legislation to make climate change demands on all Victorians.
        Other bloggers here might consider doing similar when they wish to do something concrete about alarmism, more than just talk about it. Geoff S

        80

        • #
          Peter C

          Why not publish your letter here Geoff, particularly if you have not received a reply from the MJA.

          30

      • #
        Kalm Keith

        🙂

        10

    • #
      Peter C

      Professor Catherine Bennett (Deakin University) agrees that lockdown was not necessary (possibly)
      https://www.skynews.com.au/details/_6257879942001

      20

  • #
    Hanrahan

    Texas not turning blue anytime soon.

    There were mayoral elections over the weekend in Texas and GOP had a clean sweep in districts which voted Hillary +30 and for Biden. One district is heavily Latino near the border.

    The dems have little to offer Latinos, they tend to be Christian and [email protected] and suffer most from illegal immigration because it is THEIR jobs desperate illegals compete for.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EdUR1r5yML8

    150

  • #
    Ronin

    ‘We did not have apps 20 years ago.’
    Details, details.

    20

  • #

    For those of you with an interest in the relationship between atmospheric albedo and global surface temperature I present data and a quiz at https://reality348.wordpress.com/

    I’m going to reward the person that, in my judgement, demonstrates an understanding of the dynamics behind the variability in atmospheric albedo and temperature. No question is compulsory. Just have a crack at the ones that look easy to you.

    This exercise is designed to increase understanding of climate dynamics in the community. As a former teacher who loved to introduce kids to the study of climate, and to pose the question that concerned the miners at Eureka, where my great grandfather was a signatory to the miners petition, relating to taxation and representation in government, and my wife’s great grandfather pit-sawed the planks used to make the miners coffins, I am aware that Australian schools are not serving us well.

    Many thanks to Jo Nova for a forum for the expression of opinions that the mainstream media, the ABC in particular, chooses to exclude.

    170

    • #
      el gordo

      Its above my pay grade.

      Question 1: H2O in the tropics.

      10

      • #
        Peter C

        Question 1. What are the particles in the atmosphere that could be responsible for reflection of solar radiation and where are they likely to be located?

        A: Water droplets and ice crystals. Located in clouds.

        40

        • #
          el gordo

          Very good, but I’m skipping class to read the other story Mr Happ has up.

          ‘The evolution of surface pressure across the globe is governed by the Antarctic trough that exhibits a profoundly low and highly variable atmospheric pressure in cycles of between three and four years duration, that evolve within a longer cycle of 80-120 years, in line with solar activity.

          ‘Since 1948 surface pressure has dropped by almost 10mb in this trough, the heart of which is located on the margins of Antarctica at 60-70° South Latitude. Its the deepest trough in surface pressure on the planet, a sink for the atmosphere, globally. Don’t underestimate its significance.’

          21

        • #
          Peter C

          Question 2. What’s the origin of the anomalous bump in the descent of albedo between February and July?

          This is a much more difficult question that Q1!

          I can’t attempt an answer at present. Conversation carried over to the next Unthreaded.

          00

      • #
        MP

        I’m going to send a bottle of very nice red wine to the person that, in my opinion, makes the most sense.

        I think this was your out!

        00

        • #
          el gordo

          Thankyou comrade, as you know Erl hangs out at Margaret River and is involved with the grape industry. So you can be assured it’ll be a good drop.

          More importantly, in the other article he needs to know for sure ‘whether the solar wind, that reverses polarity at Hale cycle intervals, favours or retards the rotation of the atmosphere.’

          This mechanism is soon to be tested.

          00

    • #
      el gordo

      Solar forcing impacts low cloud cover, so we go through periods of dimming and brightening, probably determined by the Hale Cycle.

      ‘Over the US, the modest change in cloud cover from 1996-2019 predominantly drove the +11.77 W/m² surface solar radiation forcing during 1996-2012 (then -2.35 W/m² from 2013-2019). These “brightening” and “dimming” magnitudes easily overwhelm the values associated with an annual 2 to 2.5 ppm rise in CO2 forcing (0.2 W/m² per decade).’ (Notrickszone)

      20

  • #
    Analitik

    Last year, Trump Planned To Haul Fauci, Daszak In Front Of US Presidential Commission, Demand China Reparations but the plan was quashed due to concerns about partisan politics and economic backlash from China

    EXECUTIVE ORDER
    – – – – – – –
    NATIONAL COMMISSION ON THE ORIGINS AND COSTS OF COVID-19
    By the authority vested in me as President by the Constitution and the laws of the United States of America, it is hereby ordered as follows:
    Section 1. Establishment. The National Commission on the Origins and Costs of COVID-19(“Commission”) is hereby established.
    Sec. 2. Membership.
    …(a) The Commission shall be chaired by Senator Thomas B. Cotton andconsist of the following members:
    …..(i) at least three scientists with expertise in virology or infectious diseases;
    …..(ii) at least two economists with expertise in estimating the macroeconomic costs of exogenous shocks such as COVID-19, including the costs associated with loss of life;
    …..(iii) one or more individuals with expertise in the geopolitics or military strategy of the People’s Republic of China; and
    …..(iv) one or more individuals from any other area determined by the President to be relevant to the Commission in fulfilling its duties.
    …(b) The Chair shall designate from among the Commission members one member to serve as Vice-Chair.

    https://www.zerohedge.com/covid-19/trump-planned-haul-fauci-front-us-presidential-commission-charge-china-reparations-over

    Where is The Australian sourcing all this information?

    70

  • #
    Don B

    India’s surge of Covid-19 cases and deaths, which was breathlessly reported six weeks ago, has been defeated with Ivermectin.

    Look at the charts on the left side of this FLCCC page.

    https://covid19criticalcare.com/

    130

  • #
    MP

    I had the TGA adverse events page in a tab on my lap top, last week it listed deaths at 210 for the not a vaccine. I refreshed the page and the deaths are no longer there?
    looked at the previous weeks and they are no longer there?

    90

    • #
      David Maddison

      I found it and managed to generate some results. For medicine I entered COVID and then it returned the vaccine options. The latest date you can select is 8th March.

      https://apps.tga.gov.au/PROD/DAEN/daen-report.aspx

      It appears not to be possible to share a link with the search embedded, you’ll have to generate a new report. Here is a summary.

      3 medicines selected between 01/12/2020 – 08/03/2021.

      Selected medicines
      Trade name Active ingredients

      COMIRNATY COVID-19 vaccine BNT162b2 (mRNA)

      COVID-19 Vaccine (TNS) COVID-19 Vaccine (Type not specified)

      COVID-19 Vaccine AstraZeneca ChAdOx1-S (Viral vector)

      Search results
      The results are shown in two tabs.

      Number of reports (cases): 346

      Number of cases with a single suspected medicine: 345

      Number of cases where death was a reported outcome: 9

      40

      • #
        MP

        Thats the DAEN page, tried that and got March as that is the latest selection to chose from, as you show.
        I looked last week and it had 22,031 Adverse events (now 24,402 as of the 30th May) and 210 deaths to the 23rd of May. (I wrote them down)

        60

    • #
      Ross

      The figure of 210 deaths was buried down in the text – never highlighted, you had to scroll down a fair way. That figure was quoted endlessly over social media with people putting all the data into a summary table ( which the TGA had neglected to do). After the publication last week of the “210” figure I would have no doubt the information has been edited. So, even though all the MSM report the vax figures every day the adverse reactions go unreported.

      70

    • #
      Chris

      I have looked also. The deaths have been written off as old age -nothing to do with vaccines.

      60

  • #
    Analitik

    Is Kamala Harris the most hollow, least substantial senior politician (at national level) of all time?

    Even the Guatamalan general population have a better grasp of her ineptitude and insincerity than Democrats
    Signs displayed upon her arrival include:

    KAMALA STOP FUNDING CRIMINALS
    We reject your $860 million dollar bribe to our corrupt politicians!!! No BLM Marxism in Guatemala!
    KAMALA Mind Your Own Business
    KAMALA Go Home

    And then after all the posturing on “rights” for illegal immigrants, she broadcasts to the Guatamalans (and presumably other South and Central Americans)

    I want to be clear to folks in this region who are thinking about making that dangerous trek to the United States Mexico border: Do not come, do not come

    https://www.zerohedge.com/political/kamala-trump-won-tone-deaf-vp-passes-out-cookies-herself-then-gets-heckled-guatemala

    80

    • #
      Analitik

      Moderation – sigh

      10

    • #
      Analitik

      And she then goes on to say

      The United States will continue to enforce our laws..and secure our border

      Gee, Joe won’t be pleased at his appointee to deal with the border issue is now contradicting him

      This will come into context when my post is released from moderation

      100

      • #
        Dave in the States

        It’s what they do and not what they say that matters. The whole trip is a distraction from the very real humanitarian crisis at a totally open border. They want to change the narrative from a policy disaster to that the illegals are economic (and climate) refugees. It’s just optics. And its just bald faced lying.

        It’s not a policy disaster to the Dems. They see it as bringing in reinforcements in their war against the deplorables. This they will continue to do; as to never again lose the reigns of power is their goal.

        20

  • #
    dinn, rob

    6-7-21 Nearly everywhere receded rates of infection, altho Russia is holding steady at 3.6% increase/day/ Malaysia has slightly falling rate now at 7.3% increase/day, average of last 2 days. 5.7/78.5= 7.3%. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/malaysia Then South Africa cooled a great deal but still has 7.4% increase/day. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/south-africa These last two countries appear to be the world hotspots. Iraq at 6.6% increase/day, rather steady.
    ……………………………………………..

    11

  • #
    Analitik

    Another great article by Jennifer Marohasy on how nature is more resilient and adaptable than the CAGW crowd want us to believe

    Here’s the money quote from where she explains how a “researcher” tried to divert her from asking about current coring data of older coral porites

    Deceit when it comes to issues of great public interest is not new. We have the choice as individuals to close our minds to new information that doesn’t necessarily accord with established narratives, or alternatively reflect on information that at a first glance appear anomalous. We are no better than those who choose to do aerial surveys knowing full well that turtles live under-the-sea, if we only hear and read that which accords with preexisting narratives that keep us conveniently connected to the status quo while misunderstanding the true state of the Great Barrier Reef. If we really care about something, we should want to know everything about it.

    https://jennifermarohasy.com/2021/06/the-injustice-of-blowing-up-turtles-for-convenience/

    h/t WUWT

    80

  • #

    Aunty Pravda’s rolling news feed of unacceptable articles for the 8th June – https://thepointman.wordpress.com/rolling-headlines/  #freepointy

    Pointman

    20

  • #
    Liberator

    So recycling of solar panels is happening in Adelaide – just that you have to pay to have them recycled, for now.

    So majority of panels going into landfill.

    I’d be interested to understand their recycling process and the outputs.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-06-06/what-happens-to-solar-panels-after-their-useful-life-is-over/100193244

    40

    • #
      Graeme#4

      As usual, these articles never explain how much is actually recycled, or the actual cost of recycling. When you have a good look at these claims, you normally find that very little is recycled, with the most toxic part, the cell assembly, not being touched. Then the question arises: where do the parts that are not recycled end up?

      50

    • #
      Chad

      Anyone making the effort can find the following ……..

      panels would be trucked to plants. Once there, they would be loaded into a furnace and undergo a process called pyrolysis to break down the various pieces, with the remaining materials – including aluminium, copper, glass, plastic, silver and silicon – sent to material companies under offtake agreements.

      “We have the ability to take each material back down to its raw element,” he said.

      The Company is “PV Recycling”

      20

      • #
        yarpos

        I hope that is a electric furnace not a gas one, that would be too ironic.

        20

      • #
        Kalm Keith

        Sounds brilliant, but highly unlikely.

        10

      • #
        Graeme#4

        I don’t believe this company is actually recycling Chad. No press releases to confirm this. They have only secured a site development lease in February, and it seems all they are doing is collecting and storing panels for future reclamation.
        I will reiterate – it’s always the same story. “We could recycle, we maybe can recycle, we are planning to recycle”, etc.
        But nobody is actually recycling and running a profitable business by recycling.

        30

        • #
          MP

          Then the, “load it in a furnace” bit. (must of got that from a smelting for Idiots handbook) will be an absolute mess.

          00

          • #
            Chad

            From the site…

            “We have the ability to take each material back down to its raw element,” he said.

            00

            • #
              MP

              Everything can be returned to its original, plastics through volatilisation and virtually the same way its made but never done. Distillation.
              All the metals will blend together or oxidise and go to the slag, the glass (Silica) will go to the slag which is silica also, nowhere on the planet is slag, reprocessed to glass, this is obvious by the massive slag stockpiles around every smelter. We do reprocess slag to regain metal losses through entrainment via grinding, the ground slag ends in a slag/tails dam.

              Subsidy farm at best, fantasy. Then you have freight to SA.

              Look at recycling plants, they go to a lot of effort to separate the materials, not put it in one big pot. Why is that I wonder.

              00

        • #
          Chad

          No, i dont know if they are actually doing what they propose either, …..
          …but the key point to me is that as stated, recycling PV is NOT economically viable, so without some form of legislation to make it compulsory it will never deal with the bulk of dead panels.
          And on the topic of PV lifespan…often quoted as 20+ years….. i personally see a major flaw in that prediction.
          PV panels are a “tech” comoditiy, with a rapidly changing specification and performance in many aspects. Much like TVs , Monitors, Computers, etc.
          I suspect many PV panels will be replaced long before their working life is over,…they will be substituted for panels with more capacity, more efficiency, different appearance, ( Tiles ?, or full black panels are fashionable currently) .
          My own personal experience of a 10 yr old RT system with a few issues, ..it has been made very obvious to me that the only real “fix” is to remove the whole system and replace it with current technology !
          So, i expect there will be a lot of panels with much less than 20 yrs on them, hitting the recyclers…or the tip ?

          10

  • #
    Geoff Sherrington

    Maybe it is rude to do this, but I am floating this piece around several high quality blogs. Plese, please have a go at commenting on it. I have never seen this angle discussed before, but it seems so simple that it should have been.
    …………………….
    Some Simple Climate Sensitivity concepts:
    The equilibrium climate sensitivity (IPCC 1990, 1996) is defined as the change in global mean temperature, T2x, that results when the climate system, or a climate model, attains a new equilibrium with the forcing change F2x resulting from a doubling of the atmospheric CO2 concentration.
    Approximately, there are 10^40 molecules of carbon dioxide in the Earth’s atmosphere. If we start with 1 molecule, then double it to get 2 molecules, we have done 1 doubling. If we double that again, 2 doublings give 4 molecules, 3 doublings give 8 molecules and so on.
    133 doublings give 1.09*10^40 molecules, mathematically. (This is simply 2^N, where N is number of doublings), so in concept, our atmosphere has had 133 doublings.
    Roughly, the present range of ECS as offered by various authors is between some negative value and about 9 degrees C. For the sake of demonstration, let us take a ‘popular’ value of approximately 1 ⁰C. Each doubling then raises the temperature by 1 ⁰C.
    Because there have been 133 doublings, we should have seen a temperature change of 133 ⁰C. We appear to have NOT seen this change. How can this be explained? Several options exist.
    1. The ECS is much smaller than 1 ⁰C. To match observations, ECS would need to be 1/100 of 1 ⁰C, or 0.01 ⁰C.
    2. Maybe, it is incorrect in theory to start the doubling calculations as I have done, from 1 molecule. If so, what is the ‘correct’ point to start the doubling calculations, and WHY that point?
    3. The effect of doubling does not follow a simple relation that each doubling produces the same temperature change. That is, the IPCC definition is incorrect, or lacks some caveat(s). What are they?
    4. Possibly, the Earth system copes with any temperature changes from variations in CO2 concentration by compensating mechanisms that produce an effective ECS that is close to zero and not as high as 1 ⁰C.
    5. More explanations – welcomed.
    Geoff S

    40

    • #
      Peter C

      133 doublings give 1.09*10^40 molecules, mathematically. (This is simply 2^N, where N is number of doublings), so in concept, our atmosphere has had 133 doublings.

      I see lower down that you have your starting point at 1 molecule to CO2 in the Atmosphere.

      So, in concept there may have been 133 doublings. But what was the starting point in time?

      Yes the idea of a Climate Sensitivity of 1C/doubling fails even that conceptual test.

      10

      • #
        Geoff Sherrington

        Peter C,
        Why does it matter when it was in time?
        Doublings happen irrespective of time. There can be a decrease in doublings as CO2 concentrations fall, so where do you stop calculating your way down a decrease?
        IMHO, many of the earlier graphs depicting doubling are simply wrong in physics.
        Geoff S

        21

        • #
          Kalm Keith

          Geoff, what I can’t understand is why you are so preoccupied with this nonsense concept of “doubling”.

          It’s a science free advertising gimmick created by the IPCCCCC.

          Doubling seems to imply an increase in the danger from higher CO2 levels where the reality is the opposite.

          Higher CO2 levels are progressively less potent in creating higher atmospheric temperature: assuming that the mechanism actually exists.

          10

    • #

      If you start at one molecule of CO2, and double that to two molecules, can a reasonable person say the effect is even measureable, let alone equivalent to say doubling from 1×10 to the 39 power to 2×10 to the 39 power? Of course not. It makes no sense at all. So there is a lower limit to the doubling model. Below that limit one has probably risen from something that has the appearance of a logistic curve, and will eventually approach a logistic curve at the upper end of concentration too. The doubling model can only apply near the maximum log-slope of this curve.

      20

      • #
        Geoff Sherrington

        Kevin K,

        Exactly! I am trying to find how one can quantify that point at which the alleged physics of doubling starts to become measurable.
        Part of the story might involve the total, top energy that at CO2 molecule can take in. Have you a figure for that, say at the wavelength where the CO2 absorption spectrum peaks? Geoff S

        20

        • #
          Kalm Keith

          Geoff, haven’t you realised that the concept of “doubling” has been misrepresented by the Klimateriate?

          Looking at “doubling” is a pointless scientific exercise.

          The basic atmospheric physics is that CO2 behaves like all other gases in the atmosphere between the limits previously mentioned.

          Water has specific phase changes at 0°C and 100°C, the latter is order to our discussion.

          Carbon dioxide has phase changes/critical events at minus 78°C, from memory, and about 243°K, which is about minus 30°C.

          CO2 doesn’t pump energy back to Earth.

          00

    • #
      Kalm Keith

      The first thing that has to be dealt with relates to the idea that the IPCCCCC is in any way concerned with the Science of the atmosphere; it isn’t.

      Newly invented concepts like “doubling” and “forcing” are simply part of a sophisticated advertising campaign designed to give the impression that something serious and dangerous is being dealt with.

      Between 30 metres above ground level and 11,000 metres altitude that “dangerous gas” CO2 is simply another gas which follows the universal gas law P.V=nR.T. Within those boundaries nothing dangerous happens. Don’t worry.

      Presumably if more CO2 was present then that lower ceiling of 30 metres might drop to 29.5 metres, big deal.

      Whatever; one thing’s for sure, if the Sun doesn’t rise tomorrow we will all be frozen solid.

      The supposed doubling mechanics seems to avoid the reality of the logarithmic reduction in ground origin IR still to be absorbed. The main point is that if more and more CO2 is added to the atmosphere there is less and less ground origin IR to pick up. And here we are assuming that conduction isn’t involved.

      One way or another the ground energy from incoming high energy UV that has been “turned around” will all be picked up by the method of conduction and possibly a little bit by that dangerous “greenhouse” mechanism (sarchasm).

      Given the diminishing Log effect and atmospheric reality the frightening concept of “doubling” is little more than a bad joke and primarily is useful in enslaving the governed.

      In true modelling the concept of “doubling” used by the IPCCCCC advertising department would have its starting point with current conditions; there is No logic in starting with one molecule and double doubling it. We start where we are because all of the current linked factors can be measured and quantified.

      So far I have never seen a true model from the IPCCCCC that links atmospheric CO2 levels to atmospheric temperature.

      Obviously people debating the concept of doubling atmospheric CO2 have never understood the logarithmic graph of diminishing effect.

      What I can’t understand is how True Science has been stomped on, crushed and sidelined in this CAGW scheme to control and dominate the worlds productive nations.

      Slavery lives in 2021.

      KK

      20

    • #
      Robber

      Consider the opposite approach – start with 400 ppm CO2, then halve it, and halve it again. What is the equlibrium temperature at 100 ppm CO2?

      00

      • #
        Kalm Keith

        That’s the point; it makes no difference.

        Whatever low grade energy forms up as ground origin IR is eventually going to find its way to the colder environment that attracts it upwards; deep space.

        If CO2 doesn’t carry it then atmospheric water vapour will and if that doesn’t work then the IR will just sneak out to space under its own steam.

        The main point is that CO2 doesn’t trap heat and then spit out photons at the earth from a great height. That’s a nonsense propagated by the IPCCCCC advertising department.

        Energy always, Always moves down the energy gradient.

        Even If there was this so called greenhouse effect there’s still a big problem for CAGW “science”; the amount of energy that CO2 could deal with is quantitatively irrelevant.

        The big “heat trapping gas”, ha ha, is water.

        We Must get rid of water immediately.

        20

      • #
        Kalm Keith

        ” What is the equlibrium temperature at 100 ppm CO2?”

        The same as we have now, no change.

        🙂

        20

  • #
    Hanrahan

    A question of our American friends:

    ALL news outlets in Australia are talking about the greatest sting in our history, and I don’t use ” “. Seems a young AFP officer got an unbreakable code from the FBI and sold the app to our underworld. They have been using it for years but today “the green light to use it turned red” and mass arrests happened. The red light may have been [I have no idea of course] to thwart a murder plot of a family of four. That may have forced them to break cover.

    Australia is an island but crime has no borders and there were thousands of international crims exposed. It was an FBI code.

    The question: Is this a big deal in the US or has the new left’s soft on crime attitude let this through to the keeper [catcher]?.

    40

  • #
  • #
    Slithers

    Ok so you are in a Doctors waiting rom with several others, one of which has Covid-19 and is infectious. He is exhaling the virus.
    You are breathing in those viruses. You are waiting in line to be tested for Covid-19.
    The PCR test comes back posative!
    What have they discovered?
    The virus was in your nostrils, you were not exposed to the virus for long enough to get infected and your imune system is very healthy, BUT, you are classified as Asymptomatic.
    Anyone want to be inoculated?

    40

  • #
    RicDre

    What is Fastly and why did it just take a bunch of major websites offline?
    PUBLISHED TUE, JUN 8 202110:44 AM EDTUPDATED 14 MIN AGO
    Ryan Browne, Sam Shead

    A slew of major websites including Amazon, Reddit and news publishers like The New York Times were affected by a massive internet outage Tuesday.

    The outages started at around 6 a.m. ET, with users reporting they were receiving error messages including “Error 503 Service Unavailable” and “connection failure” when attempting to visit various websites.

    The sites — which also included the U.K. government website — are now mostly back online.

    Early reports have pointed the blame at Fastly, an American cloud computing services firm. Fastly’s status page said Tuesday morning that it was investigating a technical issue. It now says the issue has been resolved.

    https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/08/fastly-outage-internet-what-happened.html

    10

  • #

    Victoria could be locked down indefinitely as bureaucrats say there’s NO level of vaccination that will guarantee the end of restrictions
    No ‘magic number’ of vaccinated Victorians will prevent future Covid lockdowns
    Warning to public came from Victoria’s Deputy Chief Health Officer Allen Cheng
    Added the future lockdowns may not have same intensity of restrictions
    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9658109/No-magic-number-vaccinated-Victorians-likely-stop-draconian-coronavirus-lockdowns.html

    40

  • #
    Fran

    Don’t know why, but my comment on #30 seems to have crashed or triggered moderation.

    This long read shows how the Canadain government is using stats to make fear porn. An analysis of covid mortality data by Julius Ruechel shows that even the old and comorbid in the community are not seriously at risk. In the order of 75% of mortality is from virus acquired in insitutions (care homes, hospitals and prisons) where a maximum of 290,000 live/exist. 25% are in the community of 38,000,000. The latter includes milions of old cormorbids. Looked at this way, there has not been a pandemic at all.

    https://www.juliusruechel.com/2021/05/the-lies-exposed-by-numbers-fear.html

    [Some sort of glitch Fran , both comments are visible (to me) and approved but only this one is visible on the main screen.]AD

    30

  • #
    robert rosicka

    I just love the BOM forecast for Menindee today ,Thursday and Friday , don’t know why they don’t just say could be wet and could be cold we don’t know .

    http://www.bom.gov.au/nsw/forecasts/menindee.shtml

    10

  • #
  • #
    another ian

    Willis E takes a look at off shore wind power and finds the gold mine

    https://wattsupwiththat.com/2021/06/08/blocking-the-wind/

    10

  • #
    el gordo

    This is a long article, just scroll through quickly and discover the flaws. Its an enjoyable insight into their cultural mindset.

    https://thediplomat.com/2021/05/what-do-chinese-people-think-is-happening-in-xinjiang/

    10

  • #
    Lance

    8 June, 1949, George Orwell’s “1984” was published.

    https://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/george-orwells-nineteen-eighty-four-is-published

    More people ought have paid close attention to his work. Sadly, they didn’t.

    10

  • #
  • #
    another ian

    “The silver fox domestication experiment”

    https://evolution-outreach.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12052-018-0090-x

    Note the ending

    00

  • #
  • #
    another ian

    “I think everyone asked a health question at a business or similar place ask a question back.

    My fave would be are your tubes tied/have you had a vasectomy?

    Why?

    Because it is not in the greater good you multiply.

    Any other ideas?”

    http://www.smalldeadanimals.com/2021/06/09/june-9-2021-reader-tips/#comment-1454763

    00

  • #
    another ian

    Seems we’ve had the wrong outlook on “if no double standards no standards at all”

    Actually it seems “Double standards twice as good”

    http://www.smalldeadanimals.com/2021/06/09/june-9-2021-reader-tips/#comment-1454771

    00