JoNova

A science presenter, writer, speaker & former TV host; author of The Skeptic's Handbook (over 200,000 copies distributed & available in 15 languages).


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Weekend Unthreaded

Another political thread coming soon.

8.5 out of 10 based on 12 ratings

61 comments to Weekend Unthreaded

  • #

    It has finally happened. The charade that modern Democracies are a Left verses Right ideological battle, has been revealed. The contest of ideas, i.e what is good for the overall wellbeing of a nation’s people has been superceded by the pursuit of power for its own sake.
    This is not new, history and indeed the present day is littered with totalitarian regimes that pay lip service to how they serve their people while control remains paramount.
    Western democracies have slowly but surely been falling prey to this flaw in human nature. Since the dawn of human existence the struggle between good and evil, right and wrong has been evident.
    Judeo-Christian tradition tells us that the war in Heaven broke out amongst the Angels when God created man and Satan objected to the idea.
    The common man has always needed someone to stand up for them. Sir Robert Menzies did it way back in 1942 when he talked about the forgotten people, we had Howard’s battlers and Tony’s tradies. There was Nixon’s silent majority and Morrison’s quiet Australians. Countries have gone to war in attempts to free oppressed people in foreign lands.
    That is all changing. The fight for control transcends ideology. Today it is the elites versus the rest. Whether it be the intelligentsia, the rich and powerful (both individuals and corporations), the institutions, legislators, regulators or bureaucrats, they are all after a piece of the action, regardless of what may or may not be the right thing to do.
    Of course there many good people doing many good things and they must be allowed to prosper and flourish without being controlled by the power hungry “we know best” cohorts and their disciples.
    Hillary Clinton “belled the cat” (as if it needed belling) with her “deplorables” statement. Donald Trump, replete with character flaws and issues of style, is fighting for the battlers, the forgotten people, the downtrodden and needy in his Country. It is not surprising that he is the most popular man in America. He is doing this without pay, no wonder the elites find him preposterous.
    History has shown that true democracy is a fragile thing and now, perhaps like never before, the dangers of defending it, under the threat of a New World Order are manifold.

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  • #
    Dennis

    2GB Sydney Radio, two interviews worth hearing today as a reminder of how globalism socialism new world order does not tolerate political enemies.

    In particular the second featuring Christopher Monckton …”

    https://www.2gb.com/we-have-a-duty-to-speak-up-tony-abbott-takes-dead-aim-at-malcolm-turnbull/

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  • #
    LisaGinNZ

    I’m hoping the fighting Trump comes out swinging metaphorically and arrests all coup plotters. Orange jumpsuits and perp walks for all straight into gizmo. Freeze all $ assets of all participants including corporations, countries, tech overlords and evil schemers…
    Save America from the planned communist take over!
    Waiting…….
    Hoping…….
    For the kraken

    172

    • #
      Kalm Keith

      We’d all agree with you: and hope that it might happen.

      Sadly in nearly all of the western world now, while you may be allowed to sweep rubbish off the street, you can’t sweep it out of big government buildings and “educational” establishments.

      The events in the U.S. over the last year have been frightening in what they show and foretell for all of us who thought we lived in a democracy.

      KK

      30

  • #
    • #
      Kalm Keith

      A bit long but skipping through gives the message.

      The invasion of our personal lives by uncontrolled BigTech moneymakers is something I strongly resist.

      Fight for freedom.

      30

  • #
    RickWill

    I have looked closely at the conditions that limit the sea surface temperature to 32Cin open water.

    This slide charts the atmospheric water vapour before and after cloudburst:
    https://1drv.ms/u/s!Aq1iAj8Yo7jNhBBX6nZvi3_lUJ1a
    Just before cloudburst the atmosphere below the level of free convection is saturated. The level above the LFC is dry and corresponds to a surface temperature of 53C for the dry adiabad to pass through the LFC. The maximum Convective Available Potential Energy is calculated to be 4353J/kg. During cloudburst, the moist air expands up into the dry zone resulting in cooling and precipitation to extinguish the CAPE. THe precipitation throughout the cloudburst results in 7.6mm of rain. After the rainfall, the atmospheric water vapour is redistributed per the red line. There is a loss of moisture but there is now ice above the cloud base and water vapour above the LFC. Over the next day or so the OLR from the cloud continues to solidify the water vapour to ice, maintaining the cloud. Eventually that ice works its way down the column until the sky becomes clear.

    While vapour is condensing and working its way down below the LFC, more water is being evaporated from the surface to saturate the zone below free convection.

    40

    • #
      RickWill

      The next slide in this series depicts how the level of the cloud base and the level of free convection converge as temperature increases:
      https://1drv.ms/u/s!Aq1iAj8Yo7jNhBGGUgx8VRSon9HW

      This demonstrates how the atmospheric shutters close as the temperature increases. If the surface temperature was forced by internal means to reach 34C then cyclic cloudburst would occur without sunlight ever reaching the surface.

      The chart at this link shows how the cloud fraction increases with increasing surface temperature:
      https://1drv.ms/u/s!Aq1iAj8Yo7jNhBJrV4IuSy-03Mx4
      Under conditions of cyclic cloudburst, the surface only has clear sky for 12% 0f the time by the time the SST reaches 32C. The clear sky condition could occur at night.

      The calculations for this are based on a steady surface temperature. Typically the surface is either warming or cooling depending on the net radiation.

      30

    • #
      RickWill

      This next chart shows why so much of the tropical surface temperature is around 28C:
      https://1drv.ms/u/s!Aq1iAj8Yo7jNhBPDRJjxxmWoamp0

      Looking at the radiation balance over a tropical sea surface exposed to peak insolation of 1400W/sq.m it becomes apparent that the surface, on average, is losing energy above 29C.

      These calculations give some insight to why the measured net flux is so peaky around 28C:
      https://1drv.ms/b/s!Aq1iAj8Yo7jNhArF7wOhjkSkQWa-
      When temperature is below 28C, there is net energy uptake but once past 29C there is net energy lost. That means there will not be much surface warmer than 29C because, if the cloudburst cycle is not interrupted, the surface will be cooling.

      The cloudburst cycle is not entirely predictable because it can be triggered early or delayed by large scale factors such as bulk horizontal air movements. Also the water is subject to currents and the cloudburst cycles occurs over a period of a day or more. Actual measurement of precipitation indicate that air below 27C is drawn to warmer zones because the daily rate of precipitation exceeds the daily rate of condensing in warm zones but the opposite for the cooler zones. The linked paper provides so data in the precipitation:
      https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/5564/a2bd4556d0b3820d3b48a38f69238f0e7106.pdf?_ga=2.103881152.1333890229.1609570080-160488568.1609570080
      This paper observes the reduction in cloudburst with temperatures above 29C being caused by nearby convection. It fails to recognise that there is very little surface above 29C because it would be cooling unless there is some factor that has interrupted the cycle, like the influence of topography.

      20

      • #
        Peter Fitzroy

        the why does every science organisation involved in ocean temps make 30 as the normal max?

        011

        • #
          Hanrahan

          Keep up with your reading. I’m no scientist so can only explain in the most general terms but it has something to do with increasing evaporation causing more cloud and the albedo effect.

          I’m a mechanic so do your own research.

          60

        • #
          el gordo

          ‘ … make 30 as the normal max?’

          Probably because SST rarely go over 30 degrees, but of course during earlier global warming epochs SST went as high as 32 C. Here we see the cool tropic paradox resolved, or maybe not.

          ‘Climate models with increased levels of carbon dioxide predict that global warming causes heating in the tropics, but investigations of ancient climates based on palaeodata have generally indicated cool tropical temperatures during supposed greenhouse episodes.

          ‘For example, in the Late Cretaceous and Eocene epochs there is abundant geological evidence for warm, mostly ice-free poles, but tropical sea surface temperatures are generally estimated to be only 15±23 VC, based on oxygen isotope palaeothermometry of surface-dwelling planktonic foraminifer shells. Here we question the validity of most such data on the grounds of poor preservation and diagenetic alteration.

          ‘We present new data from exceptionally well preserved foraminifer shells extracted from impermeable clay-rich sediments, which indicate that for the intervals studied, tropical sea surface temperatures were at least 28±32 VC. These warm temperatures are more in line with our understanding of the geographical distributions of temperature-sensitive fossil organisms and the results of climate models with increased CO2 levels.’ (Pearson et al/ Nature 2001)

          02

          • #
            el gordo

            A little closer to our own time, the Western Pacific warm pool SST was 28 C degrees at the Last Glacial Max.

            ‘The results of this study clearly indicate that a western Pacific warm pool existed during the last glacial maximum (LGM), providing a heat and moisture source for a Walker Circulation cell similar to that of today.’ (Thunell et al Cambridge Uni Press 2017)

            Is the WPWP an act of Divine Providence or a touch of Gaia?

            02

            • #
              Kalm Keith

              In the atmosphere the same effect is called Convection.

              10

              • #
                el gordo

                With respect, the WPWP is an enigma and requires broader analysis.

                ‘James Lovelock will always be associated with one big idea: Gaia. The Oxford English Dictionary defines this as “the global ecosystem, understood to function in the manner of a vast self-regulating organism, in the context of which all living things collectively define and maintain the conditions conducive for life on earth”. It cites the independent scientist as the first to use the term (ancient Greek for Earth) in this way, in 1972.’ (Nature)

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              • #
                Kalm Keith

                With respect, one of the great unknowns, from one day to the next, is the amount and location of core energy escaping from the ocean floor as either superheated gases or molten lava.

                Overall the energy escaping from Earth’s core is 0.09 Watts per square metre of the surface. Obviously given the irregular surface and ocean floor venting it isn’t easy keeping tabs on how much of this concentrated energy is heating parts of the oceans so I’m wondering what other energy fluxes are being considered as major contributors to the period of temperature fluctuation under discussion.

                10

              • #
                el gordo

                They say there is a teleconnection between the WPWP, AMO and PDO, which may indicate the oceanic oscillations are operating under the control of the underworld.

                The difference between the WPWP and other energy fluxes is the permanent nature of this isolated heat engine. During positive PDO and in cooperation with El Nino the warm SST spreads further across the Pacific, while a cool PDO and La Nina conditions will see the WPWP stay put and fight off the cool SST from the east.

                Over there-quarters of the sea floor hasn’t been mapped, so we can’t be certain that core heat is a major player.

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        • #
    • #
      Geoff Sherrington

      Rick Will,
      I would be delighted if you agreed to enter into a separate email discussion about the work you lay out here on this Weekend Untreaded blog of Jo’s on 10th Jan 2021.
      My email is sherro01 at outlook dot com
      Geoff S

      00

  • #
    Peter Fitzroy

    Why is everything filed under ‘Global Warming’ none of the last zillion posts have had anything to do with global warming

    214

  • #
    Hanrahan

    I’m wondering if anyone else sees this odd effect on this site: The first word I type in a reply is sometimes replaced with <strong> when I go back and read it. [obviously no strike-through]

    If it only happened a couple of times I’d dismiss it as fat fingers but it must be over 20 times by now. I’m not a touch typist so watch my keyboard when I type.

    Any ideas?

    00

  • #
    Another Ian

    I just got this in an email

    “On the first day, God created the dog and said, “Sit all day by the door of your house and bark at anyone who comes in or walks past. For this, I will give you a life span of twenty years.”
    The dog said, “That’s a long time to be barking. How about only ten years and I’ll give you back the other ten?”
    And God saw it was good.
    On the second day, God created the monkey and said, “Entertain people, do tricks, and make them laugh. For this, I’ll give you a twenty-year life span.”
    The monkey said, “Monkey tricks for twenty years? That’s a pretty long time to perform. How about I give you back ten like the dog did?”
    And God, again saw it was good.
    On the third day, God created the cow and said, “You must go into the field with the farmer all day long and suffer under the sun, have calves and give milk to support the farmer’s family. For this, I will give you a life span of sixty years.”
    The cow said, “That’s kind of a tough life you want me to live for sixty years. How about twenty and I’ll give back the other forty?”
    And God agreed it was good.
    On the fourth day, God created humans and said, “Eat, sleep, play, marry and enjoy your life. For this, I’ll give you twenty years.”
    But the human said, “Only twenty years? Could you possibly give me my twenty, the forty the cow gave back,
    the ten the monkey gave back,
    and the ten the dog gave back; that makes eighty, okay?”
    “Okay,” said God, “You asked for it.”
    So that is why for our first twenty years, we eat, sleep, play and enjoy ourselves.
    For the next forty years, we slave in the sun to support our family.
    For the next ten years, we do monkey tricks to entertain the grandchildren.
    And for the last ten years, we sit on the front porch and bark at everyone.
    Life has now been explained to you.
    There is no need to thank me for this valuable information.
    I’m doing it as a public service.
    If you are looking for me I will be on the front porch…”

    Might help with the current political situation?

    160

  • #
    el gordo

    Are we there yet?

    BEIJING (Reuters) – ‘Exceptionally cold weather sweeping through China has caused a huge increase in power demand in the world’s largest energy consumer and hampered transportation.

    ‘Frigid weather across north Asia has caught utilities and liquefied natural gas importers off guard as demand for power lowered inventories and pushed spot prices to record levels.

    ‘China’s Central Meteorological Station released the first cold warning in 2021 earlier in the week to several regions. Cities such as the eastern port city of Qingdao recorded the lowest temperature in history and the capital city Beijing had coldest day since the 1960s on Jan 7.’

    31

    • #
      MrGrimNasty

      Of course the actual problem:-

      China decided to play games with Australia, they already had power blackouts back in December, and there were about 50 Australian coal ships prevented from docking.

      Nose spite face.

      But MSM won’t make it clear that ‘climate leader’ China is a massive massive coal burner.

      110

      • #
        Dennis

        We must make allowances, China is a UN rated “developing nation” so allow them to ignore the Paris emissions reduction targets and grow their economy, after all it’s only now one of the biggest economies in the world.

        And therefore they need hundreds of coal fired power stations to generate essential baseload electricity, plus nuclear power stations, hydro power stations and other generators, but cheapest remains coal or gas fired, but already developed economy nations must close them down.

        By Order

        The Globalists.

        51

        • #
          MrGrimNasty

          The UK has recently declared its foreign aid can no longer be used to fund fossil fuel projects. Brilliant, that just cedes more power and influence to China who are happily building coal power plants all over the world, notably in Africa without scrubbers – so causing real pollution, not just over-hyped CO2 pollution.

          70

          • #
            Serp

            Wash your keyboard with soap and water, “CO2 pollution” indeed.

            As the solar minimum bites we’ll need all the carbon dioxide we can muster to assist in food production.

            00

    • #
      Graeme No.3

      Spain is having lots of snow (and disruption).
      In England they have had to start their remaining coal fired power stations due to the v. poor output from wind turbines (with the follow-on effect that imports from Ireland and Europe are much reduced as their turbines aren’t delivering).
      And solar isn’t supplying much – something to do with snow on the panels.

      70

      • #
        MrGrimNasty

        There isn’t enough snow around to make a difference, the issue in the UK in winter is short days and low sun angle. The annual capacity factor is about 10%, you can imagine that means in winter it is well down in single digits, about 2.5% in December for instance.

        50

        • #
          Serp

          Nobody can point to a successful grid level solar installation anywhere in the world; plenty disasters though.

          10

  • #
    skeptikal

    I’m seeing unconfirmed reports of a Vatican blackout with simultaneous road closures all around Rome. There are also reports of a nationwide blackout in Pakistan.

    Might be something big going down… or maybe not.

    10

    • #
      James

      I read yesterday to prepare for blackouts. I will fill my fuel cans today and run Run the generator for a bit I think.

      10

    • #
      RicDre

      “I’m seeing unconfirmed reports of a Vatican blackout…”

      This is the only thing I could find on the topic:

      REPORTS: Blackout in Vatican, Roads blocked in Rome

      https://insiderpaper.com/vatican-blackout-reports/

      It appears the lights are back on or perhaps were never out:

      Now there are some conflicting reports about the blackout, according to one report, all lights were on and stayed on all night, the blackout was witnessed because the live stream camera’s auto-exposure focused in on the lampposts and dimmed the recorded image.

      00

  • #
    RicDre

    How To Handle 40 GW Offshore Wind (Or Not!)–Drax

    Headline annual figures mask the huge variation in wind output that will be experienced in the future.

    https://wattsupwiththat.com/2021/01/10/how-to-handle-40-gw-offshore-wind-or-not-drax/

    00

    • #
      Chad

      “Tell them they are Dreamin’ ”
      You know they are clutching at straws when they roll out the “Hydrogen” solution !
      They may as well say it will be solved by the use of “Cold Fusion”.
      … I fear they are all to scared to admit there is a Huge problem, and that it will need someone with B4lls to eventually kick off some more Nuclear plant construction.

      10

  • #
    RicDre

    Claim: The Temperature Spike Just Prior to the Little Ice Age can Teach Us about Modern Global Warming

    According to Patric Seifert, a tropospheric researcher at the Leibniz Institute in Germany, a large scale temperature spike occurred just before the onset of the Little Ice Age. Seifert does not think global temperatures are about to crash, but he thinks conditions in Europe are similar enough to the 14th century that historical reconstructions of this medieval heatwave, the Dantean Anomaly, can help us understand what we will face as the world continues to warm.

    https://wattsupwiththat.com/2021/01/09/claim-the-temperature-spike-just-prior-to-the-little-ice-age-can-teach-us-about-global-warming/

    10

    • #
      el gordo

      By 1250 AD there were large icebergs in the North Atlantic, wild windstorms and sea floods then became part of the mix. So I argue that global cooling began earlier, but the impact was most noticeable around 1300 AD when there was a sharp drop in sea level.

      00

    • #
      el gordo

      Reading through the comments there was no serious effort to refute the authors. Do you think volcanic eruptions from 1250 to 1300 AD were the catalyst to kick start the LIA?

      00

      • #

        El Gordon

        I have written on this at some length elsewhere.

        https://judithcurry.com/2015/02/19/the-intermittent-little-ice-age/

        The LIA was a very intermittent beast and there were many warm spells in the period following the dates cited. the first 20 years of the 1300’s were generally very warm

        the LIA had many pulses but the extended CET record to 1539 picks up the worst periods in the instrumental and written record

        20

        • #
          el gordo

          The anomalous warmth of the 1730s is striking and needs closer scrutiny and I don’t believe the LIA is a misnomer.

          Here the suggestion is that some kind of internal dynamic is operating and the volcanic eruptions were not that important.

          https://sciencenorway.no/climate-geology-ice-age/what-actually-started-the-little-ice-age/1759318

          00

          • #

            Phil jones wrote a paper on the remarkable 1730’s warming in around 2004

            One of his conclusions was that natural variability was much greater than scientists had hitherto realised.

            I would say the period around 1540 was even warmer. We have records of the dissolution of the monasteries under Henry the eighth and the heat was often extreme. And don’t forget that parliament declared a climate emergency around 1660 due to the extreme winter heat, it’s recorded in Hansard and Pepys write about it.

            So lots of contenders for the hottest years

            10

            • #
              el gordo

              The warmth of the 1540s was also enjoyed in Berlin.

              https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/The-economic-effects-of-long-term-climate-change%3A-Waldinger/3b57963d6f4b56723f52be8d9db9a0ea80b26885/figure/2

              Note the step change as we move deeper into the cool zone, if there are no external inputs like volcanic eruptions, then it appears that the system is overwhelmed by negative feedback.

              00

            • #
              el gordo

              It may just be a coincidence, but there is exactly two hundred years between the 1540 and 1740 heat spikes. Does the cool Gleissberg have a warm companion?

              00

              • #
                tonyb

                I have a very extensive collection of weather records. So what about the 1330’ish period?

                1324 great drought but might refer to 1325
                1325 great drought- such a shortage of water in the Thames that the water of the Thames was salt –probably related to London.
                1326 great drought in summer and in other times of the year. Brooks and streams dried up that had never previously done so. Again a remark that the river Thames for nearly a whole year was salt certainly seems to have been 2 consecutive dry years probably 1325 and 1326
                1329 wet autumn in Ireland with crops unreaped until Michaelmas.(note; 29th September)
                1330 very stormy in Ireland in November and December.
                Heavy rains elsewhere from june to sept harvest very late began 29th sept finished 30th nov.
                1331 no rain fell for 15 weeks before a tournament on june 17th.
                1333 Merle said there was dryness in april as there was in 1340 Very dry and temperate summer in Ireland.
                1340 mild weather at end of year
                Merles weather diary ends jan 10th 1344 (see Merle’s diary listed separately)”

                —- —-

                Here is a further record from A manorial estate

                1329 winter wet summer very dry autumn no ref
                1330 winter hard summer wet autumn wet and long
                1331 early winter very wet with flooding summer very dry autumn no ref
                1332 winter no ref summer dry autumn no ref
                1333 winter dry summer very dry autumn no ref
                1335 early winter dry summer and autumn no ref
                1336 winter flooding summer very dry autumn no ref
                1337 winter no ref early summer dry late summer wet autumn very wet and long.
                1338 winter wet flooding summer dry autumn very wet
                1339 winter hard and long flooding summer dry autumn wet

                ——-
                So again seems to be very dry which normally coincides with heat.

                The 1730’s ended in the catastrophically cold winter of 1740 as did the 1340 reference so there may be this roughly 200 year period (together with others as extreme heat or cold was quite common) Perhaps there is a weather reckoning as the warmth is suddenly balanced by at least one exceptionally cold winter.

                10

              • #
                el gordo

                From 1322-26 it was droughty, yet the harvests were good, then a few years of wet poor harvests, a couple of excellent harvests and once again droughty conditions return.

                Nothing out of the ordinary, just a repetitive cycle without a trend. The year 1338 is said to have been the most abundant harvest since 1287. I’m looking at Stratton – Agricultural Records.

                By the 1340s there is a drift into cool wet summers, the famine years were now upon them.

                So it strikes me that the jet stream was meandering, coupled with atmospheric blocking to produce extremes in weather, more variable and unseasonal. Nice to know what the NAO was doing at the time.

                00

              • #
                el gordo

                Jumping ahead to the 1730s, looking for something unusual, in 1736 the Thames rose to its highest level in half a century. The following year saw the beginning of ‘a dry spell which, with a few breaks, lasted for fourteen years.’

                Christmas Day 1739 the first severe frost set in, but 1740 was a shocker, no point in discussing the frozen beer and wine in the cellars. Bread was hard as rock and dead birds fell from the sky in mid flight, nevertheless a frost fair was set up on the Thames.

                The fingerprints of the beast from the east can be seen all over this. ‘The cold north-easterly winds continued throughout April and May, and snow fell in Yorkshire on April 22. Snow also fell in London on the night of May 16/17, and a severe frost occurred in north Yorkshire on May 30.’

                00

            • #
              el gordo

              Ah yes, chief suspect is de Vries.

              00

              • #
                tonyb

                I am a great believer that there are a number of passengers in the ‘climate coach’ and at times the passengers swap places with the driver. I doubt that co2 is ever in control but being on the west coast of England |I know how much the winds affect us and their direction has an enormous impact on the weather.

                A very cold start to the current year with easterly/north easterly winds has been replaced by much milder westerlies today. They in turn are influenced by the meandering jet stream. Lamb wrote of wind direction and I graphed these back to 1500. There is a considerable but not perfect match between the winds and the weather/temperature we can observe.

                Phil Jones was of course a ‘pupil’ of Lamb and tried to help me to bring it up to date as Lambs data ceased of course in the 90’s. It will make a good article in due course but winds/jet streams/oceanic currents are certainly high on my list of important climate coach passengers and drivers.

                20

              • #
                el gordo

                Lamb was concerned that AGW would reduce natural variability to the status of ‘noise’ and that is how its panned out.

                The AMO is slowly drifting towards neutral conditions and the NAO is negative at the moment, a perfect test bed to prove natural variables rule.

                00

  • #
    el gordo

    ‘The LIA was a very intermittent beast … ‘

    Yes indeed, its hotly debated that the LIA was a Bond Event, but I have my doubts, whereas there is general agreement that the Dark Age period was a Bond Event.

    So we need to forensically examine the start of all previous Bond Events to ascertain whether the LIA fits the pattern.

    00