JoNova

A science presenter, writer, speaker & former TV host; author of The Skeptic's Handbook (over 200,000 copies distributed & available in 15 languages).


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Weekend Unthreaded

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Weekend Unthreaded, 9.5 out of 10 based on 10 ratings

190 comments to Weekend Unthreaded

  • #

    I think very few of those on the UK SAGE advising Boris, are qualified in the sense we would understand it as relating to the pandemic.

    Respiratory deaths in the UK are running exactly as would be expected at this time of year. 2020 ranks 8th out of the last 27 for the number of such deaths including covid. How could we so quickly forget the 50000 flu deaths in 2017?

    Do lockdowns work? Where is the evidence? Or have we forgotten the march to July already lockdown already?

    Do masks work? The evidence seems to show otherwise, here is the actual graphic record of the date of introduction of masks in various countries and the UK and the subsequent rise in infections

    https://thefederalist.com/2020/10/29/these-12-graphs-show-mask-mandates-do-nothing-to-stop-covid/

    If we wore proper masks as expertly as surgeons and under the same sanitary conditions then they would help, but we don’t. At best they do little to prevent infection, at worst these often dirty bits of cloth could be fuelling infections

    133

    • #
      Graham Richards

      Have the Pommy wankers closed the borders yet? That means airports, ferries, and more importantly the thousands still invading under the guise of asylum seekers/ refugees!!

      Looks to me like the EU still controls everything in UK

      Years ago they had the chance to dump the Conservatives & Labour by giving the British National Party a go but didn’t!! Wonder how the whole political and hence security scene would have stood today!!

      54

      • #
        Dennis

        More important to phone other leaders and plead with them to stop emissions and deal with the climate emergency hoax.

        20

        • #

          Tonyb, there’s no consideration of lag or delay in effect, and no mention of the increase in asymptomatic cases or the reduction in deaths which may well be happening thanks to masks.

          There’s no mention of china, japan, korea, or hong kong, where the virus should have spread wildly in high density populations but didn’t.

          There is at least some talk of “compliance” but only as a “one data point” vague thing, did they mention how compliance may have waned?

          Studies on cloth masks in hospitals is cherrypicking the worst masks in the worst situation.

          Essay is just another politically motivated write up that ignores scores of other studies that don’t fit the narrative. Better to mash together 20 variables and draw a nice graph with an arrow?

          http://joannenova.com.au/2020/09/good-news-more-masks-means-more-asymptomatic-infections-and-less-severe-ones/

          http://joannenova.com.au/2020/07/cheap-ways-to-starve-a-virus-masks-reduce-spread-by-70-distance-by-80/

          Masks are often not tested in medical settings because it’s considered unethical to ask doctors to not wear a mask in a high risk situation. But what would doctors know about transmission of disease eh?

          67

          • #
            UK-Weather Lass

            At the very start of the epidemic masks were definitely pushed as a means of protecting others if the wearer were infected and the mask was designed for such specific use. However the much publicised shortages of PPE seems to have suggested masks help to prevent the wearer from becoming infected which is only true in certain clinically controlled environments where specifically desiogned PPE is worn according to the manufacturer’s safety requirements.

            A further problem is test result counting where false positives are not being tallied which would provide us with some idea of specificity and accuracy of the many tests on offer. No need for me to repeat Dr Yeadon’s simple guide to how many false positives occur even with a 99.9% accuracy involving 10 million tests. Those numbers really do increase exponentially for small changes in accuracy.

            Until we have more accurate testing for infection and immunity how do we know who the people are who may already be providing some measure of protection to the population and whether or not this epidemic is already all but over? There was panic in March and look where that got us. I am law abiding and I want things to go back to normal as soon as possible. I have recently had a ‘flu jab for this year but I have no illusions as to what it offers me until politicians start doing things properly and with confidence. That means politicians need confident and competent scientists who actually know what they are doing and most of them appear not to be speaking the consensus narrative.

            20

            • #

              Western Australia. Nearly 500,000 tests. And the only positive ones now — for around 200 days — are all in hotel quarantine. They had five false positives in the Kimberley last week and were quite concerned and flummoxed.

              Looks like a good test, works like we’d expect it to…

              10

            • #

              It is amazing how 100s of thousands of tests and the few positives are all related to other cases or cluster in people in people recently returned from overseas. Chi-squared rejects the null hypothesis of a random distribution of false positives explaining the data at p<1×10-18

              00

              • #

                Fair point. I have wondered how many false positives they get. I don’t know where these are reported. I presume each new “unknown spread” false positive immediately triggers another test to confirm, also testing for influenza, paramyxo, RSV etc

                I see in the Covidlive tracker there is a case of +1 in WA which are then -1 a few days later. Eg August 1. But with so much testing I would expect there to be more. Perhaps they are holding out on reporting those until they are confirmed?

                https://covidlive.com.au/report/daily-community-transmission/wa

                00

              • #

                there was one in Victoria on the weekend. They reported it as a maybe and reassessed as a negative. Real false positives are rare and probably none of any consequence.

                00

              • #
                Environment Skeptic

                All of us have experienced Kilometers per hour, and even Miles per hour, and so now we need corona tests per hour. Then the case numbers will have a quantifiable reference in time and space.

                :) Make no mistake, i was one of the incredibly gifted all seeing few first to notice that the days of horse drawn carriage and steam engines are not like today. Back then, contact tracing was in the age of Cubism and so like a cubist painting, the borders are clear and decisive, and the colors do not bleed into other regions of the canvas. Today, with the advent of jets and hyper-sonic vehicles, we are in an age of Jackson Pollock. The borders are not clearly defined, and the virus can move all over the canvas in the blink of an eye. The possibility of quarantine is not what it used to be, Ai or no Ai. Just ask Jackson Pollock. :)

                00

              • #
                Environment Skeptic

                For example, when one is speeding at 200 corona tests per hour, a case number of 10 corona cases will be much better than 20 cases at 1000 corona tests per hour.

                At 400 corona tests per hour, 20 cases will be the same as 10 cases at 200 corona tests per hour.

                00

              • #
                Environment Skeptic

                Typo *10 cases at 200 corona tests per hour is worse than 20 cases at 1000 corona tests per hour. oops :)

                00

              • #
                Environment Skeptic

                To convert the cases at 200 corona tests per hour in order to compare corona tests at 1000 corona tests per hour , divide 1000 corona tests per hour by 200 tests per hour and this gives 5. Multiply 10 cases by five and so the cases are 50 cases at 1000 tests per hour.

                00

              • #

                ES…. have you been drinking?

                00

    • #
      OriginalSteve

      The movie “Songbird” ( made by David Bay of Transformers fame ) depicts a virus “Covid 23″ which is interesting as it suggests a progression of ( manufactured) viruses.

      Its quite a dystopian movie- but – seems to accurately reflect IMHO the NWO mindset.

      https://youtu.be/IgxXSfto6Vo

      Another Simpsons-like preview of history?

      30

    • #

      Tony B your mask analysis of Texas versus Georgia is meaningless.
      Mask science goes back more than 50 years.If you are sick and you sneeze . cough or holler at the police, you can spread your germs. Of course if you KNEW you are sick, you should stay home. But for COVID, you can be infected for several days before any symptoms show up. And for three of five friends who were infected, their only symptom was a loss of smell and taste. Two of them didn’t even know they had COVID until being tested after they had recovered. So those who wear a mask when near other people won’t spray germs as far as if they did not wear a mask if the cough or sneeze.

      I bought 10 masks for $6 in in March and have used only seven of them so far — five for doctor visits and two for stores that required them. That’s less than 14 hours of mask wearing in 7 months. Not once did I sneeze or cough while wearing a mask, so it did nothing to protect other people. But it could have. The same masks are now selling for $2.25 for 10 at Menards, and you get an 11% rebate..

      The lockdowns also work. If you stay away from sick people you don’t catch their disease. In the old day the sick people were isolated, and no one else was locked down. That made sense. The side effects of lockdowns for younger healthier people, who are less harmed by COVID than by ordinary influenza strains, is worse than the disease. People will social distance voluntarily, as they did in Sweden, without mandatory, arbitrary, partial lockdowns. Although Sweden had some mandatory lockdowns too.

      The masks we use have nothing to do with surgeons masks, and have a different purpose. Masks do not cause infections unless you reuse them. The cheap masks we use are meant for one day’s use only. Masks help make social distancing more effective, because the magic six foot social distancing is a mad up number — no science. A violent sneeze can spread germs over 20 feet indoors. A mask will shorten that distance. By how much, would depend on the mask.

      40

      • #
        RickWill

        Absolutely true about the masks. If you see someone remove a mask to cough, sneeze or scratch/pick their nose then that is a good visible indicator that that person should be given a wide berth.

        Masks do very little on intake but dramatically reduce the spread on exhaust.

        Victoria could not have gotten to where it is without lockdowns. The State has taken in huge numbers of immigrants from sub-saharan countries in the last decade. They have large families. They have large, multiple family gatherings. Many do not have good command of spoken or written English. The risks from this cohort were not recognised initially and they were able to spread the virus very rapidly. The authorities tried to lockdown buildings, then suburbs but to no avail. The only recourse was to shut the whole community down so the movements of these individuals became clear. They almost managed to spread the virus into two other states when three young woman from the same cultural background visited Melbourne for some affirmative action shopping and then went to a party with recent immigrants from the same culture, caught the virus and then returned to Queensland via NSW. It lead to a challenging outbreak in Queensland, which had been Covid free for weeks up till that stage.

        So countries that have strong cultural norms could get away without lockdowns. Sweden is really a basket case compared to say Taiwan. Taiwan has not locked down but had an extremely effective pandemic plan. They warned the world in January but no one took any notice.

        51

        • #
          OriginalSteve

          Masks are beneficial for *sick* people.

          As you say, inhale = little effect.

          As such, why should Victoria mandate everyone wear masks? Makes no sense.

          I’d rather be in Sweden than say the UK, and UK has higher deaths per million than Sweden according to statistica. The other thing is that as the CDC has pointed out true deaths due to covid are only about about 6% of figures, which also logically calls into question accuracy and trans[parency of death reporting.

          Its a pity, but aftyer seeing the pressure in the US to basically misreport cause of deaths on certificates, and the lack of transarency in Victoria about causes of “covid deaths” I cannot logically trust govt figures any nore.

          An outdoors sport set across 100s of acres I’m involved in officiating with , that it was “strongly recommended” that everyone wears masks. I politely declined, as I stated that the risks are so miniscule. At what point, given covid clearly has a low death rate, do we start accepting risk and managing things sensibly, rather than jumping at shadows?

          60

          • #

            Masks protect the wearer from large droplets and high viral loads. That is well documented. They also stop smaller particles, see “electrostatic”.

            One superspreader in Victoria who didn’t wear a mask could have extended the lockdown by another two weeks. Was it smart or stupid to ask people to wear cheap masks. Depends on whether you like extended lockdowns, or wasting billions of dollars.

            PEople keep referring to Sweden and the UK but forgot to mention that Sweden ought ot have some of the lowest rates in the world. 50% live by themselves. They have fortified Vitamin D. In summer they go on holiday to the country. The UK has a high population density, and stupidly left borders open and flew in new cases every day. Sweden left borders open, but not many people fly there. Despite all these advantages the Swedes made so many mistakes they were almost as badly affected as the UK.

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      • #
        tonyb

        “The cheap masks we use are meant for one day’s use only.”

        But that is one of my points. In reality Disposable masks are used for multiple journeys whilst surfaces are touched, faces touched, masks taken off, worn below the nose, masks put in pockets then the whole process goes on all over again. Ditto with not washing washable masks.

        In a perfect world, if people wore the correct masks, fitted them properly, didn’t fiddle with them, disposed or washed them as instructed, washed hands after each visit, then they may be useful. However the real world is nothing like that scenario and I am querying whether a thoroughly dirty and misused mask any longer has a claim to being a useful hygienic measure.

        If masks DID work and IF lockdowns DID work you would not expect to see the resurgence we are currently witnessing. Masks have been compulsory even outdoors and on the beach for some months in some places and it has not done what is clamed. Of course there may be other factors but if so I would like to hear them

        20

      • #
        tonyb

        Richard

        It is not “My” mask analysis. I do not know enough about the ins and outs of Texas Versus Georgia to comment. I am a Brit so I was more interested in the European data as I have been following it closely throughout. Masks have been in force for months. Wearing them is often rigorously enforced with large fines and wearing them even outside is mandated in many areas.

        My question is merely do masks work when worn in the manner they are, as I can see no sign that the infection rate dropped but of course there may be other factors. In which case I would like to know what they are

        10

        • #

          Masks reduce the spray distances of the coughs and sneezes of infected people. That’s all they do. There is no way to look at any numbers in the middle of a pandemic and declare that masks were bad news or good news. The science says they are good news. Common sense says they will not make a big difference. many things in life make sense but can not be proven with double blind scientific studies. Wearing masks indoors when near people who could be infected makes sense. for reason that has been demonstrated many times using slow motion photography of the aerosols when a person coughs or sneezes. It’s just physics. Of course wearing the same mask every day is not healthy. Doing strenuous exercise with a mask on is not healthy. And there’s not much reason to wear a mask outdoors unless you are forced to be near others. I can’t stand masks and have only worn them for about 14 hours in 7 months — they cause my eyeglasses to fog up and I imagine someday I will walk into a wall and hurt myself. … In the long run I expect people to conclude masks were useful, but not very useful. … With infectious diseases in the past, the best strategy was to isolate sick people from others, call people they had contact with just before they got sick, and test those people in a way that gives then fast accurate results. … Humans live with at least 150 viruses than have never been eradicated, and maybe COVID will be one of them.

          Taiwan probably did well because there are no incoming flights from Communist China.

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    • #
      tom0mason

      The UK own paper says ‘A single Ct value in the absence of clinical context cannot be relied upon for decision making about a person’s infectivity.’

      From https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/926410/Understanding_Cycle_Threshold__Ct__in_SARS-CoV-2_RT-PCR_.pdf Published 28 October 2020

      The clinicians say

      There are currently two main types of testing: for acute infection (presence of virus, via throat swab) and past infection (antibody). Testing for acute infection is used to support clinical diagnosis and clinical management of suspected cases; to inform contact tracing and case finding; to monitor and support outbreak control including testing of asymptomatic people in high-risk settings, for example prisons, schools, care homes and hospitals. Testing for antibodies indicates past infection and is currently used for research and surveillance purposes. However, both have significant caveats. The PCR test is not a test of infectiousness.2 A positive result detects viral RNA fragment in the sample but does not distinguish between those who have the virus and are infectious, and symptomless people who may or may not be infectious. The accuracy of testing in a real-life population is unknown, but false negatives of up to 29% are reported.3 Because of this, clinical input is required to interpret, risk manage and manage the results. This is essential to avoid false reassurance, leading to symptomatic people stopping isolation on the basis of a false-negative test, risking spreading infection. Without clinical input, a risk-based, clinically judged approach to the use of a negative result is lacking. Moreover, there is no reference to potential false negatives in NHS website advice, which currently reads: ‘a negative result means the test did not find coronavirus’.4 There are still significant unknowns in regard to the real-life false-negative rate in the community.5 The antibody test must also be carefully interpreted. A positive antibody test finds antibodies, but evidence as to whether this gives meaningful immunity or stops the spread of infection6 is lacking. Additionally, there are ethical issues in the testing of asymptomatic people which require evidence-based information and consent. This, so far, appears to have been largely overlooked.

      From ‘Test and trace strategy has overlooked importance of clinical input, clinical oversight and integration ‘ https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/0141076820967906 First Published October 27, 2020

      IMO This is more scare and control tactics from the UK Government for no improved outcome.

      10

      • #
        tom0mason

        BMJ latest podcast update on COVID risk and a new tool for assessing risk.

        In this talk evidence covid-19 update, we’re taking on risk – how do you figure out your individual risk of dying from the disease? Try QCovid, but remember that it’s figuring out your risk back in April.

        When it comes to talking about risk, very few people actually engage with the number, so Alex Freeman from the Winton Centre for Risk and Evidence Communication at the University of Cambridge joins us to describe their research into more effective ways of presenting it.

        Huseyin Naci, from the London School of Economics, returns to the podcast to talk to us about the problems of pulling all the trial data together, and where covid-19 has made people work together most effectively in tackling that issue.

        The talk is available at https://soundcloud.com/bmjpodcasts/talk-evidence-covid-19-update-talking-risk-remdesivir-and-relevant-research

        10

      • #
        Lucky

        ‘A single Ct value in the absence of clinical context cannot be relied upon for decision making about a person’s infectivity.’
        (that statement is on page 3, further discussion is on pages 6 to the end)
        It is even more skeptical than my opinion!

        The Ct is never supplied anyway. All the tested person gets is either a ‘positive’ or a ‘negative’ result.
        Whatever it is that a PCR test actually does, compare with the gross actions which are justified by it.
        I suppose it makes no difference, if there were no PCR tests, the lockdowners would ‘find’ other data. In real life, data does not inform policy, rather policy drives data.

        20

  • #

    So many things to say, and not enough time to say them

    If climate change is one of your biggest problems, then you are a very lucky person

    Most people have problems far worse than climate change

    Even though I have some problems, I am extremely thankful for the wonderful world that I live in

    I will never stop appreciating nature

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    • #

      Not understanding that global warming is small and very slow, is a major Alarmist error (2 deg C per century)

      Seasonal warming is large and very fast (5000 deg C per century, for 6 months)

      Seasonal warming is 2500 times FASTER, and at least 25 times BIGGER

      50

      • #
        RickWill

        Earth CANNOT warm at 2C per century in the current era. The energy balance on Earth is tightly controlled. Sea surface cannot get colder than 271.3K. It becomes solid ice at lower temperates and insulates to reduce heat loss. Sea surface cannot exceed 32C. Once TPW exceeds 38mm the atmosphere goes into blockout mode and rejects almost all incoming insolation. The temperature rises asymptotically to 32C; can never exceed that temperature.

        There is no “greenhouse effect”.

        Any measured warming over the past century, apart from recovery after volcanos, is indication of measurement error. Earth’s climate is basically stuck where it is for the next thousands years or so barring volcanos or large asteroid.

        40

        • #
          Dennis

          Hang on, this is now the Information Technology Age, computer modelling cannot be faulted.

          sarc.

          Indeed, even BoM modelling is flawless, scientists like Dr Jennifer Marohasy must be using the wrong software.

          10

    • #

      UAH doesn’t agree very well with the other temperature series (GISTEMP, HadCRUT, and RSS)

      Especially the Northern Hemisphere. See this article

      Comparing temperature series

      https://agree-to-disagree.com/comparing-temperature-series

      20

      • #
        David Wojick

        The RSS satellite estimate agreed well with UAH until it was “adjusted” recently to agree with the rapidly warming (and highly adjusted) GISS surface estimate. I consider UAH to be the only remaining credible estimate.

        On the surface only HADCru still shows the pause among the big three. NOAA and GISS both “adjusted” it away based on NOAA’s Tom Karl’s “pause buster” paper that substituted bad sea surface temperature data for better data. Most of our surface is sea.

        I consider all of the surface estimating systems to be less reliable than presidential polls. That now includes RSS. See my https://www.cfact.org/2017/05/27/a-needed-noaa-temperature-research-program/ and https://www.cfact.org/2017/05/18/fake-temperatures/.

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        • #
          • #
            Stanley

            I read with interest your analysis of Perth’s temperature increase since 1880. Are you aware that the geographical sites for weather observations have changed several times since 1880?. The current site is at Mount Lawley and is further inland than earlier sites, meaning that the cooling sea breezes in summer arrive there a bit later in the day than those sites that were closer to the coast, and this would impact the daily temperature profile and variation. Additionally the instruments for measuring surface air temperature have changed from classical liquid-in-glass thermometers to electronic thermometers, thus raising questions about their equivalence. Jennifer Marohasy’s website has useful information on thermometer equivalence. Just saying that analysis of historical weather data needs to take other factors into account. Keep up the good work.

            30

        • #
          MCMXLIII

          If there is a significant fall in the global average temperature resulting from the developing deep La Niña event Nov – Feb it will be interesting to see how RSS, NCDC and GISS deal with it.
          Will they have the audacity to repeat the upward adjustments to their data as they did following the 2008 – 2012 La Niña series, in 2015.
          It is odd that the surface data records (NCDC and GISS) and the RSS satellite data set were adjusted up at the same time in 2015, even though they are based on entirely different methodology.

          30

          • #
            Ian George

            Why has the BoM recently adjusted annual average mean temps from at least 1995-2017 upward by 0.1C-0.2C?
            For example, both 2001 and 2011 were below average years but now no longer. Here’s the Climate Summary extract for 2011.
            ‘The Australian area-averaged mean temperature in 2011 was 0.14 °C below the 1961 to 1990 average of 21.81 °C. This was the first time since 2001 (also a wet, La Niña year) that Australia’s mean annual temperature was below the 1961–90 average.’

            Now this from the BoM’s Time series graphs.

            http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/change/#tabs=Tracker&tracker=timeseries

            No longer below average. ACORN2 adjustments? Serious questions have to be asked. At least DJT has done something by putting a new face or two into NASA.

            00

      • #
        RickWill

        No satellite reading is of value in absolute terms. I figure UAH is adjusted to have just enough warming so it is not treated with complete derision by the church.

        The Earth has not warmed in the last 40 years. Easily verifiably by looking at the moored buoy data:
        https://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/drupal/disdel/
        Absolutely no trend where there are long records; notably the TAO/TRITON set in the Pacific.

        50

    • #

      Alarmists are pessimists

      Pessimism is a mental illness

      Optimism is also a mental illness. But a much nicer one

      80

    • #

      Global warming is not much different to before global warming

      In some cases global warming is BETTER than before global warming

      40

    • #

      People don’t live at a single average temperature

      They usually live between the winter temperature (which is an average) and the summer temperature (which is an average)

      People live at a temperature range

      And that range will shift by a small amount, with global warming

      Compare the size of the shift to the size of the range

      Global warming is small compared to the seasonal range

      30

    • #

      Read this article to see how I have analysed the actual real temperature data for 216 countries, based on
      - latitude
      - longitude
      - elevation
      - area

      The Science and Mathematics of Earth’s Temperatures

      https://agree-to-disagree.com/the-science-and-mathematics-of-earths-temperatures-part-2

      00

      • #
        David Wojick

        How do you calculate the various surface temperatures you mention for a whole country, say the US? We do not have random samples so statistical analysis is invalid. All we have are convenience samples.

        20

        • #

          David

          That is a very good question

          I have detailed actual real temperature data for over 24,000 locations on the Earth. Many of them are in America, but they are from everywhere

          I plotted all of the locations as a dot on a blank graph of latitude and longitude. There are so many locations that the dots join up to show the shape of most of the land on Earth (except for the Arctic and the Antarctic)

          I extracted the data from over 36,000 webpages from a commercial weather website (I used a script which took nearly a week to extract all of the data)

          Then I had the problem of how to display the data. I wanted to let everybody see the temperature data for the country that they live in. I had data for 216 countries

          So I analysed the data by country. For each country I wanted to show the actual real average temperature, and the average winter temperature, and the average summer temperature

          This meant that for large countries like America, the data was averaged over a wide range of latitudes and longitudes

          I didn’t want to have more than 216 groupings, so I ignored any divisions below the country level (like states)

          I created the following tables of data and graphs

          How hot is that Country?
          agree-to-disagree.com/how-hot-is-that-country

          Why is Climate Science different?
          agree-to-disagree.com/why-is-climate-science-different

          Temperature and Population by Country
          agree-to-disagree.com/temp-population-by-country

          ==========

          I realised that this was not perfect

          So I also created coloured temperature maps for the average, winter, and summer temperatures, based on every 5 x 5 latitude-longitude cell that has at least one temperature station present. The entire 5 x 5 latitude-longitude cell was coloured to show the temperatures based on all of the temperature stations in that latitude-longitude cell. Cells with no temperature stations (e.g. the ocean) were coloured grey

          I ended up with 5 coloured temperature maps

          Real Absolute Average Temperatures
          agree-to-disagree.com/rats-average-temperatures

          Real Absolute Temperatures – Northern Hemisphere Winter / Southern Hemisphere Summer
          agree-to-disagree.com/rats-north-winter-south-summer

          Real Absolute Temperatures – Northern Hemisphere Summer / Southern Hemisphere Winter
          agree-to-disagree.com/rats-north-summer-south-winter

          Real Absolute Temperatures – Winter-Summer Temperature Difference
          agree-to-disagree.com/rats-winter-summer-temperature-difference

          Real Absolute Temperatures – Average Daily High for the Hottest Month (Summer everywhere = Northern Hemisphere in July plus Southern Hemisphere in January)
          agree-to-disagree.com/rats-average-daily-high-for-the-hottest-month

          ==========

          You can see that it was a lot of work

          But the results were worth it

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          • #
            David Wojick

            The fact that your dots overlap does not make your temperature estimates correct. You are using area averaging which is a bogus statistical method. The number of readings in your convenience sample is irrelevant (as is how much time you spend). Your statistics are junk.

            00

            • #

              David

              I don’t understand where you are coming from

              You only need to look at my graphs and temperature maps to see that they logical, consistent, and they make sense

              Good luck with whatever you are trying to do

              I am happy with my “junk statistics”

              00

        • #

          David

          This is the exact same reply as the previous reply, but with the links fixed so that they can be clicked

          That is a very good question

          I have detailed actual real temperature data for over 24,000 locations on the Earth. Many of them are in America, but they are from everywhere

          I plotted all of the locations as a dot on a blank graph of latitude and longitude. There are so many locations that the dots join up to show the shape of most of the land on Earth (except for the Arctic and the Antarctic)

          I extracted the data from over 36,000 webpages from a commercial weather website (I used a script which took nearly a week to extract all of the data)

          Then I had the problem of how to display the data. I wanted to let everybody see the temperature data for the country that they live in. I had data for 216 countries

          So I analysed the data by country. For each country I wanted to show the actual real average temperature, and the average winter temperature, and the average summer temperature

          This meant that for large countries like America, the data was averaged over a wide range of latitudes and longitudes

          I didn’t want to have more than 216 groupings, so I ignored any divisions below the country level (like states)

          I created the following tables of data and graphs

          How hot is that Country?
          https://agree-to-disagree.com/how-hot-is-that-country

          Why is Climate Science different?
          https://agree-to-disagree.com/why-is-climate-science-different

          Temperature and Population by Country
          https://agree-to-disagree.com/temp-population-by-country

          ==========

          I realised that this was not perfect

          So I also created coloured temperature maps for the average, winter, and summer temperatures, based on every 5 x 5 latitude-longitude cell that has at least one temperature station present. The entire 5 x 5 latitude-longitude cell was coloured to show the temperatures based on all of the temperature stations in that latitude-longitude cell. Cells with no temperature stations (e.g. the ocean) were coloured grey

          I ended up with 5 coloured temperature maps

          Real Absolute Average Temperatures
          https://agree-to-disagree.com/rats-average-temperatures

          Real Absolute Temperatures – Northern Hemisphere Winter / Southern Hemisphere Summer
          https://agree-to-disagree.com/rats-north-winter-south-summer

          Real Absolute Temperatures – Northern Hemisphere Summer / Southern Hemisphere Winter
          https://agree-to-disagree.com/rats-north-summer-south-winter

          Real Absolute Temperatures – Winter-Summer Temperature Difference
          https://agree-to-disagree.com/rats-winter-summer-temperature-difference

          Real Absolute Temperatures – Average Daily High for the Hottest Month (Summer everywhere = Northern Hemisphere in July plus Southern Hemisphere in January)
          https://agree-to-disagree.com/rats-average-daily-high-for-the-hottest-month

          ==========

          You can see that it was a lot of work

          But the results were worth it

          00

        • #

          Hi again David

          Sorry, but there is more to tell you about my actual real temperature data

          I wanted to find interesting ways to display temperature ranges for over 24,000 locations on the Earth

          So invented some new interesting types of graph

          1) How far would you need to move towards the nearest Pole, to reverse one degree Celsius of global warming?

          https://agree-to-disagree.com/how-far-to-reverse-global-warming

          2) The Comb of Death

          https://agree-to-disagree.com/the-comb-of-death

          3) The Upside-down Comb of Death

          https://agree-to-disagree.com/the-upside-down-comb-of-death

          4) Global warming temperature distributions (NO polar amplification)

          https://agree-to-disagree.com/gw-temperature-distributions-1

          5) Global warming temperature distributions (WITH polar amplification)

          https://agree-to-disagree.com/gw-temperature-distributions-2

          6) The Science and Mathematics of Earth’s Temperatures – Part 1 (a bit boring)

          https://agree-to-disagree.com/the-science-and-mathematics-of-earths-temperatures-part-1

          7) The Science and Mathematics of Earth’s Temperatures – Part 2 (more interesting)

          https://agree-to-disagree.com/the-science-and-mathematics-of-earths-temperatures-part-2

          ==========

          AS the said before, you can see that it was a lot of work

          Luckily I am an Excel expert, and enjoy analysing data and coming up with interesting data visualisations

          The results were well worth it

          00

    • #

      I have written a simple but sophisticated Excel spreadsheet climate computer model of the Earth’s temperatures, based on
      - the Stephan-Boltzmann equation
      - the solar strength
      - the albedo of the Earth
      - the rotation speed of the Earth
      - the material the Earth is made of (land and water)
      - the CO2 level (the strength of the greenhouse effect)

      You can calculate the daily temperature cycle for any latitude

      You can model the seasons by using the “effective latitude”

      You can vary the CO2 level, and see the effect of the greenhouse effect

      You can calculate the ECS (Effective Climate Sensitivity). It is about 2.3 which is in the range accepted by climate scientists

      I have shared the data and code with other people. Climate scientists don’t do that

      I will send it to you if you tell me your email address

      I distribute it as a kitset which you put together

      The reason for doing it this way, is because Excel spreadsheets with macros can hide viruses

      I put all of the code & data for this spreadsheet computer model into a zip file, along with full instructions for how to set it up in Excel and run it

      Each “run” usually takes anywhere between 3 and 10 minutes. It depends on how far the new Latitude and Greenhouse % are from the previous “run”

      I recommend having a coffee if the spreadsheet model is taking a long time

      You can see a loop count at the top right of the Dashboard worksheet. The calculation stops when the Energy balance is less than or equal to 0.00001

      You can make it faster, by making it less “exact”

      Most of the calculations are done in the cells of the Excel spreadsheet

      The VBA macro just executes the calculations until they are accurate enough

      It is a masterpiece of computer programming

      How many climate scientists can write a climate computer model in less than 40 lines of code (including comments)?

      10

      • #
        Jojodogfacedboy

        Take away the Sun and our planet is pretty damn cold.

        50

        • #

          Yes. My simple but sophisticated Excel spreadsheet climate computer model of the Earth’s temperatures shows that

          The solar strength is 1361 watts/m^2

          If you set the solar strength to zero, then the Earth’s calculated temperatures are “pretty damn cold”

          You can try it for yourself, with my climate computer model

          10

      • #
        David Wojick

        As I read the UAH data ECS is zero. All of the warming has been in steps coincident with super El Niño’s.

        See my https://www.cfact.org/2018/01/02/no-co2-warming-for-the-last-40-years/

        And Joe Bastardi’s cool diagram:
        https://www.weatherbell.com/images/imguploader/images/pause_step_up.png

        10

        • #
          Peter C

          Thanks David,

          Why doesn’t the temperature go back down after the El Nino is over?

          00

          • #

            I don’t know for sure, why the temperature doesn’t go back down after an El Nino is over

            But I can think of a possible simple explanation

            The Earth could still be slowly recovering from the Little Ice Age

            And we are simply moving towards the normal equilibrium temperature of the Earth

            When you take a bottle of beer out of the fridge, it slowly moves towards room temperature

            The Earth was temporarily in God’s fridge. And now SHE has taken us out of the fridge

            Warming to the natural equilibrium temperature of the Earth is, well…, natural

            What could be simpler?

            00

            • #
              tom0mason

              Please don’t forget that this is a planet of life!

              During those El Niño events life expands with massive amounts of algae blooms over the oceans, with plants reestablishing themselves all over the defrosting tundra. And life takes energy, energy that is changed from ephemeral radiations to chemical bonds. Chemical bonds that can last from minutes to centuries.
              Life at every turn, tries to sequester and lock in all the energy it can manage as it attempts to move against entropy.

              10

          • #
            David Wojick

            Peter, that should be the big scientific question. On the other hand why should it not? That a spike in warming should leave a residual effect is not surprising.

            The data says what it says. It is up to science to explain it, not me.

            00

          • #
            el gordo

            ‘Why doesn’t the temperature go back down after the El Nino is over?’

            Too much heat in the system, it may depend on the positions of the PDO and AMO, when they are both negative there should be a step down.

            ‘The outlook indicates a decelerating +AMO to neutral phase early next year. The analogs are in good agreement and the forecast is made with above average forecast confidence.’ (climate Company)

            00

    • #

      If you are really worried about global warming, then the cheapest, easiest solution is to
      - move to New Zealand
      - move to Russia
      - move to Canada
      - move to America
      - move to China
      - move to Japan
      - or many other countries

      They are COLD, and unlikely to have any significant problems from global warming

      You can pick the country that you prefer from the 216 countries in this article (there are actual real temperatures and graphs)

      How hot is that Country?

      https://agree-to-disagree.com/how-hot-is-that-country

      20

      • #

        Okay Sheldon, calm down,
        no more coffee today, we’re cuttin’ you off — only decaf from now on.

        70

        • #

          But I love coffee

          However, if I drink coffee after 9 pm then I can’t sleep

          So after 9 pm I drink Inka or Caro

          A naturally caffeine free beverage made from a mixture of roasted rye, barley, malted barley, and chicory, etc

          It tastes a bit like coffee, but is not as nice tasting as coffee

          10

      • #
        Greg in NZ

        ‘Snowvember’ arrives right on schedule, on the 1st of November, with numerous weather sites calling for snow showers along the length of the Southern Alps today. Australia’s Snowy Mountains are in for a tickle later in the week… “Freezing Snow In Australia In November? Global Warming In Lockdown? What Next!?”

        This marks the 11th month in-a-row where ‘snow’ has fallen somewhere in NZ this year (nothing out of the ordinary) supposedly during the hottest year EVAH… because Trump. Or sumpthink. Might put a dollar or two down on a White Christmas December 2020, just to annoy my smarmy greenie friends.

        Let it snow, let it snow, let it SNOW!

        80

  • #
    RicDre

    Response to the Australian Bushfire Commission

    The The Royal Commission into National Natural Disaster Arrangements Report has been released. But the commission’s apparent overt genuflection to climate disaster memes has already drawn harsh criticism from a group of highly experienced land management and fire fighting experts.

    https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/10/30/response-to-the-australian-bushfire-commission/

    50

  • #
    RicDre

    Friday Funny: Greta Thunberg’s perfect petroleum-free world

    One crisp winter morning in Sweden, a cute little girl named Greta woke up to a perfect world, one in which there were no petroleum products ruining the earth. She tossed aside her cotton sheet and wool blanket and stepped out onto a dirt floor covered with willow bark that had been pulverized with rocks.

    “What’s this?” she asked.

    “Pulverized willow bark,” replied her fairy godmother.

    “What happened to the carpet?” she asked.

    “The carpet was nylon, which is made from butadiene and hydrogen cyanide, both made from petroleum,” came the response.

    Greta smiled, acknowledging that adjustments are necessary to save the planet, and moved to the sink to brush her teeth where instead of a toothbrush, she found a willow, mangled on one end to expose wood fiber bristles.

    “Your old toothbrush?” noted her godmother, “Also nylon.”

    “Where’s the water?” asked Greta.

    “Down the road in the canal,” replied her godmother, ‘Just make sure you avoid water with cholera in it”

    “Why’s there no running water?” Greta asked, becoming a little peevish.

    “Well,” said her godmother, who happened to teach engineering at MIT, “Where do we begin?” There followed a long monologue about how sink valves need elastomer seats and how copper pipes contain copper, which has to be mined and how it’s impossible to make all-electric earth-moving equipment with no gear lubrication or tires and how ore has to be smelted to make metal, and that’s tough to do with only electricity as a source of heat, and even if you use only electricity, the wires need insulation, which is petroleum-based, and though most of Sweden’s energy is produced in an environmentally friendly way because of hydro and nuclear, if you do a mass and energy balance around the whole system, you still need lots of petroleum products like lubricants and nylon and rubber for tires and asphalt for filling potholes and wax and iPhone plastic and elastic to hold your underwear up while operating a copper smelting furnace and . . .

    https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/10/30/friday-funny-greta-thunbergs-perfect-petroleum-free-world/

    100

    • #
      Travis T. Jones

      You know you’ve drunk too much green koolaide when your very survival depends on fossil fuels and you would be dead without them, but you ‘believe’ your life would be better with out them.

      60

  • #
    RicDre

    Roger Revelle – the backstory of the father of Atmospheric CO2 monitoring

    Roger Revelle was an outstanding and famous oceanographer. He met Al Gore, in the late 1960s, when Gore was a student in one of his classes at Harvard University. Revelle was unsure about the eventual impact of human carbon dioxide emissions on climate, but he did show that all carbon dioxide emitted by man would not be absorbed by the oceans. For an interesting discussion of Revelle’s work in this area see this post on “The Discovery of Global Warming,” by Spencer Weart (Weart, 2007). The original paper, on CO2 absorption by the oceans, published in 1957 by Roger Revelle and Hans Suess, is entitled: “Carbon Dioxide Exchange Between Atmosphere and Ocean and the Question of an Increase of Atmospheric CO2, during the Past Decades” (Revelle & Suess, 1957). This meant that human emissions of carbon dioxide would accumulate in the atmosphere and that the CO2 atmospheric concentration would increase, probably causing Earth’s surface to warm at some unknown rate. This is not an alarming conclusion, as Revelle well knew, but Al Gore turned it into one.

    https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/10/31/roger-revelle/

    30

    • #
      TdeF

      I am looking for the original article, more interested in his research partner Suess. Interestingly the excerpt moves the half life from 5 years to 10 years, which could increase the resident CO2 based on exponential growth, but equilibrium means tiny aerial CO2 goes into the ocean over time. The more CO2 generated, the more which is in transit but the idea that all man generated CO2 stays in the air forever is rubbish. The only way to argue that the 50% increase in CO2 is man made is to argue for a half life of 80 years, as the IPCC state as fact, without proof. It is self service science for the IPCC. Without this one bit of make believe, they would all have to go home.

      The doubling of gaseous CO2 exchange half life may be a mistake though.

      My estimate of the half life is 6 years, in line with the original estimates in the 1950s. But I have the luxury of the extraordinary world wide C14 impulse in 1965 where C14 levels doubled and are back to normal now in only 55 years. The perfect e-kt half life of that decay was around 13 years, but as we are returning to a half level, this means a half life for absorption of CO2 is half that figure as C14 leaves as well as enters the ocean surface. The best article at the time was Fergusson who estimates the man made CO2 component was 2.03 +/-0.15%.

      CO2 levels will increase slightly with rapid growth of man made CO2 but man made CO2 is still trivial and competing always with natural ocean warming which is releasing CO2 from the vast reserves of dissolved CO2 which represent 98% of all free CO2. In other words, if the slightly warmer oceans released just 1% of their CO2, atmospheric CO2 goes up 50%. The scientifically obvious explanation for any CO2 increase is a slightly warmer ocean surface. How this has been twisted into CO2 warming the oceans will be the stuff of fake science legend.

      The amount of human contribution is not only neglible, it is overwhelmed by natural variation due to solar activity, the only source of surface heat on this planet. And by release from oceans which contain 1400x as much stored heat as the atmosphere based on mass (340x) and specific heat.

      But real science does not pay the mortgage or make capitalists rich or give socialists totalitarian control. For that you need a terrible scare, man made runaway tipping point global warming, then the nebulous Climate Change and now the frightening and totally inexplicable Climate Extinction. Except now you have to compete for attention with the equally manufactured Black Lives Matter and AntiFA.

      It will all change on Tuesday.

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      • #
        Peter C

        The scientifically obvious explanation for any CO2 increase is a slightly warmer ocean surface.

        It seems obvious but I haven’t yet seen any reliable evidence of ocean warming. Estimates are still in the the instrument error range.

        Another possible cause of Ocean Outgassing could be a change in ocean currents, bringing deep cold and CO2 rich water to the surface.

        30

        • #
          RickWill

          Peter
          The ocean cannot warm. It is stuck where it is. Can never exceed 32C at the equator and never less than -1.7C near the poles. Anything that shows differently has a measurement error.

          Down thread I posted this link that shows the stability of the Equatorial moored buoy temperature this century:
          https://1drv.ms/u/s!Aq1iAj8Yo7jNg3LJuByjstkozrzc
          The climate models are clearly WRONG and they get WRONGER as time goes by. They are based on unphysical claptrap.

          There is no trend. There cannot be. The REAL physics of the atmosphere prevents it. The atmosphere kicks into high gear when TPW reaches 38mm and forms highly reflective cloud that shade the surface below. That corresponds to a surface temperature of 27C. That is when monsoons form and cyclones in latitudes greater than 10.

          20

          • #
            Peter C

            Thanks Rick,

            I have been reading your comments over the past few weeks. The tropical oceans cannot warm above 32C. But could the temperate and the polar oceans warm up a bit? Not that I have seen convincing evidence of it apart from the Arctic Ocean in summer which seems to have a little less ice.

            TdeF says that increasing CO2 is due to out gassing from the oceans. That seems possible, even likely. How can that happen if the ocean temperatures are fixed?

            10

            • #
              RickWill

              Peter
              The reason I looked for more reliable temperature data than satellite is that the MODIS satellite data showed that the oceans cooled from July 2002 till July 2020 by 0.2C. This linked chart shows the temperature change by latitude:
              https://1drv.ms/u/s!Aq1iAj8Yo7jNg3GJZzfUccCa6osu
              As you can see the Arctic is quite a bit cooler so far this century according to MODIS. Without checking, that could be the result of the presence or otherwise of sea ice between the two comparisons. The sea ice does not get counted as sea surface. The equator temperature has not changed because it is largely stuck where it is. It can wander year-to-year a small amount due to ocean cycles.

              The energy gets redistributed in varying ways during the seasons and on longer time frames but there are two firm temperature limits at either extreme for the oceans. More sea ice removes some ocean surface and less increases ocean surface so there are fringe factors there. I believe it unlikely that the surface has warmed much if any in the last 150 years or so but the ocean has very large thermal inertia and it never reaches equilibrium. The data suggests the deep oceans are still warming. I doubt that is contributing much to CO2 in the atmosphere but it could be.

              There is no doubt that adding CO2 to the atmosphere increases the CO2 in the atmosphere because it cannot be immediately absorbed by the ocean. I cannot say how much and do not really care. Clearly the more in the atmosphere, the better because it increases crop productivity.

              CO2 has no bearing on the climate. The climate is largely stuck where it is for now, give or take the ocean cycles. Given that the orbital eccentricity is approaching zero, there is not much likelihood of dramatic climate swings in the next few thousand years. I cannot predict volcanos with certainty and am not looking for asteroids. Either could have a short term impact on climate but the climate system is robust with very powerful negative feedback systems. The majesty of Earth’s thermostat is breath taking and could lead most to believe there is a higher power.

              30

  • #
    Peter C

    The Trump Train escorts the Biden/Harris bus out of Texas!

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r2oXNZAbOus&feature=emb_logo

    70

    • #
      Jojodogfacedboy

      I predict a President Trump win…

      The media has made a mess of people willing to say what they want due to manipulation of anyone not following the media narrative due to some of the nasty effects they have produced.
      Like getting fired or harassed should you not be a Democrat.

      60

    • #
      Peter C

      MSM Lies Never Cease!

      The video of the Trump Train Escort of the Biden/Harris Bus shown above provoked this from the Mirror:

      Trump supporters try to run Biden campaign bus off the road
      Donald Trump tweeted video of a group of his supporters trying to run a Joe Biden campaign bus off the road, saying “I love Texas.”

      https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/world/us-election-7-things-we-learned-as-trump-fans-try-to-run-biden-campaign-bus-off-road/ar-BB1aA2c1?ocid=msedgntp

      Nowhere was there any suggestion of the Trump Train trying to ‘run the Biden Bus off the road’. They were providing an escort.
      Donald trump did not tweet that the Trump supporters tried to ‘run the Biden Bus off the road’. He just said ‘I love Texas’.

      30

  • #
    David Maddison

    If Donald Trump doesn’t win this election, it will be the end of the USA and Western Civilisation in general.

    Trump is the only voice (in a position of power) advocating for the US and Western Civilisation.

    If he doesn’t win, the totalitarian Left (a tautology, I know) will go free range and get to work implementing their entire Marxist agenda. There will be no hope after that as most people/Sheeple of Western countries are so dumbed down they don’t even see a problem with Marxism.

    221

    • #
      el gordo

      If the Democrats get in it won’t be the end of civilisation, Australian democracy still works.

      115

      • #
        Kalm Keith

        Surely you’re joking?

        100

        • #
          el gordo

          Democracies are unwieldy, palacechook got back in.

          06

          • #
            MP

            This is what your democracy looks like.

            Sky News clip.
            https://youtu.be/aCpgPFylXn0

            Seriously, does it hurt.

            00

            • #
            • #
              el gordo

              So you are saying democracies are worthless under the boot of a fascist UN and global governance?

              01

              • #
                MP

                There is no Government by the people for the people under the UN.
                The Build Back Better crap is co-ordinated through every government as you can see, which means there is a controlling entity.
                We get a choice of which puppet to chose from, the puppets are controlled through ICLEA and other UN off shoots and are in the unelected area’s of Gov so they roll through which ever bunch of crooks we elect.
                Advisors for Scott Morrison (Libs) sit on the WEF, Davos, Bilderbergers, the last two are secret meetings no records are kept, yet the people who attend on behalf of Aus are paid for by the tax payer. They are co-ordinators to bring in Agenda 2030 via the sustainable development goals.

                Its not a conspiracy theory, these people are actually telling us what they are doing, dressing it as lamb.

                20

              • #
                MP

                Again??
                ooooh I get it

                00

              • #
                el gordo

                The illuminati meet regularly to discuss which way the world is heading, they have no power or influence. Its only a conspiracy theory.

                00

              • #
                MP

                “they have no power or influence.”
                Call them what you want, I prefer Globalists

                Really hard to understand your view, your own lying eyes show Gates in control of the WHO, Soros funding the riots in the US. Clintons, Obama face no repercussion’s for their crimes.
                They are the ones pushing your Climate change thingy. (can’t call it a debate)
                JFK and Regan warned about these people and were shot for their “heads up”
                Soros and the MasterCard foundation are funding the illegal immigration around the world.

                How do you not see this.

                10

        • #
          PeterS

          No, he is not joking but he is most definitely naive and foolish, just like so many others who are asleep or clueless as to what’s happening right under their noses.

          50

          • #
            el gordo

            American democracy is robust and healthy, the people will decide.

            So what exactly is happening that I’m unaware of?

            02

            • #
              PeterS

              You often stated before that democracy no longer works when I brought up the subject and I responded back by saying no, democracy is alive and well but it’s the way people think (or more likely do not think) when they vote that is the problem. Now you rightly support our democratic way of elections but you are still unaware of the problem. You are too naive to understand that voters often do make the wrong decisions because of the propaganda they are flooded with from the MSM and politicians purely because they too are naive, clueless, or just don’t give a damn to differentiate truth from falsehoods.

              80

              • #
                el gordo

                History is littered with failed democracies, but the US is not there yet.

                All of us here are well aware of MSM propaganda, especially on the the question of climate change. My position hasn’t changed, we have to bring the ABC back to the centre so that the people are better informed and able to make a rational decision. Shouldn’t be too much longer, Skynews offers a counterpoint.

                Small parties decimated by pandemic.

                04

              • #
                PeterS

                Bringing the ABC to the centre is extremely unlikely. That would be like getting the Greens back to the centre.

                80

              • #
                el gordo

                If aunty returns to the centre then obviously the green/left vote would also go that way.

                14

              • #
                el gordo

                There was movement at the station …

                ‘ABC news boss Gaven Morris told staff they were too focused on the interests of “inner city left-wing elites” and linked his concerns about editorial coverage to the national broadcaster’s ongoing funding from taxpayers.

                ‘In remarks made during staff briefings last week Mr Morris warned it would not bode well for the ABC’s funding “if we’re seen to be representing inner city elite interests”, according to three people who were present.’ SMH

                33

              • #
                el gordo

                Morrison chose Ita (captain’s pick) and told her in no uncertain terms that continued funding was dependent on bringing the organisation back to the centre.

                Gaven Morris was telling the newsroom they should consider their future.

                23

              • #
                PeterS

                Too little too late. The Greens are gradually taking over the inner city seats from the ALP. Action should have been taken on the ABC years if not decades ago.

                50

              • #
                el gordo

                Frog marching ABC journalists out into the street is ill advised.

                03

              • #
                Serp

                In that case I’ll settle for toad marching them out. They’re an integral part of the rich tapestry of oppression alluded to by MP at http://joannenova.com.au/2020/11/weekend-unthreaded-332/#comment-2374821

                00

    • #
      PeterS

      Let’s just wait a little longer to see the result of the US election. It’s impossible at this stage to know what the Americans are really thinking (or not). Once we see the results we can then safely conclude either the Americans saw through the BS and voted for Trump or they are so gullible and clueless they voted for Biden. It is unthinkable in my mind how anyone of sound mind and intelligence would vote for Biden given a mountain of reasons but of course anything is possible at this stage. Either way they deserve all that they will get from the winner.

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    • #

      If Donald Trump doesn’t win this election, it will be the end of the USA and Western Civilisation in general.

      I forgot that you were not an alarmist.

      21

  • #
    TedM

    Intercepted zoom call exposes plans of extreme democrat supporter group. Some in the Govt.

    https://youtu.be/DmaMBYehKQs?t=1983

    20

  • #
    Another Ian

    FWIW. In comments

    “Oh Gawd! Trump just showed a killer Halloween commercial with Scary Joe in it!

    If you don’t see it elsewhere, pull it up in the clip! ”

    https://chiefio.wordpress.com/2020/10/31/rsbn-trump-rally-samhain-edition/

    Not sure which of the 3 links in there

    00

  • #
    Rowjay

    Had friends visit last week (allowed in the ACT bunker) and we were having a cuppa next to our veggie patch that has exploded into action thanks to La Nina, and I added, to the increased CO2 in the atmosphere which I described as plant food. They had not heard any mention on the MSM that CO2 was beneficial to plant growth, so I gave them this reference.
    An early summary of the experiment as follows:

    In July of 1987, we planted eight 30‐cm‐tall sour orange tree seedlings in a field of Avondale loam at Phoenix, Arizona and enclosed them in pairs in clear‐plastic‐wall open‐top chambers. Since 18 November of that year, we have continuously pumped ambient air of ≈400 ppmv [CO2] through two of these enclosures, while through the other two we have continuously pumped air of ≈700 ppmv [CO2]. By the end of the second year of the study, the trunk plus branch volume of the [CO2]‐enriched trees was ≈2.75 times greater than that of the ambient‐treatment trees. Three years later, this factor had dropped to ≈2.0; but the decline in the [CO2]‐enriched/ambient‐treatment ratio of trunk plus branch volume was nearly perfectly offset by the relative fruit production advantage enjoyed by the [CO2]‐enriched trees over that period. In Years 6, 7 and 8, however, there was a moderate drop in total productivity enhancement.

    So more atmospheric CO2 = faster plant growth, especially in the early establishment phase. Was this basic botanical fact ever mentioned in the recent Australian Bushfire Royal Commission?
    Plant response to increased atmospheric CO2 presents a double-edged outcome in the Australian forest landscape – ground cover will establish much faster with rapid early growth, indicating a heavier reliance on controlled burns to reduce low growth, but after a fire event, the landscape would be expected to recover faster.
    The vegans in our population should also be rejoicing!

    60

    • #
      RickWill

      Yep – forest productivity is a factor for bushfire management. A real change due to more CO2.

      Only Finland has really mastered the use of forest waste to generate heat and electricity. There is a huge potential in Australia.

      20

  • #
    Another Ian

    “The vegans in our population should also be rejoicing!”

    Optimist? Do they rejoice at anything?

    40

  • #
    Another Ian

    No rejoicing here either

    “Claim: UN report says up to 850,000 animal viruses could be caught by humans, unless we protect nature”

    https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/10/31/claim-un-report-says-up-to-850000-animal-viruses-could-be-caught-by-humans-unless-we-protect-nature/

    10

  • #
    David Maddison

    Gideon Rozner from Melbourne’s Institute of Public Affairs is interviewed on US Fox News about the virus lockdowns in Victoriastan. Under 6 mins.

    https://youtu.be/ib0vX49Lm4Y

    20

  • #
    Another Ian

    “Maybe They’re Ahead, Maybe They’re Behind”

    “… but there’s no question the Trump side is having way more fun than the other guys.”

    http://www.smalldeadanimals.com/index.php/2020/10/31/maybe-theyre-ahead-maybe-theyre-behind/

    “GTFO !! Team Trump Escorts Biden-Harris Out of Texas…”

    https://theconservativetreehouse.com/2020/10/31/gtfo-team-trump-escorts-biden-harris-out-of-texas/

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    David-of-Cooyal-in-Oz

    I’ve started to read the Binskin report “Report of the Royal Commission into National Natural Disaster Arrangements ”
    and tried to follow a footnote in Chapter 1 to the (alleged) list of previous reports:

    5 The Bushfire and Natural Hazards Cooperative Research Centre has catalogued these and other related inquiries and reviews, and categorised their recommendations. A list of past inquiries, drawn from the Centre’s database, is set out in Background paper: Australian Inquiries and Reports Concerning Natural Disasters .

    Result: Page not found
    Cheers
    Dave B

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    glen Michel

    I was asked to sign an online petition fronted by ex- PM RUDD about Murdoch media bias and its influence on public opinion. Fat chance. Anyhow I searched for this bias on media fact check, which found the paper right of centre. However, the site contended a lot of the subject matter false – particularly regarding climate change. Were the recent fires due to weather conditions and not climate change: false! Further examples of media fact checks exist!! I can conclude- not that one needs convincing that the world is heading totalitarian.

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    • #
      PeterS

      I can conclude- not that one needs convincing that the world is heading totalitarian.

      I have to agree with you. It’s as plain as the nose on our faces. It will be a rude awakening to most people as there are so many who are asleep, gullible, don’t give a damn, can’t think for themselves so rely on what the MSM and politicians say, or all of the above. It will be interesting to watch as people go bat crazy when everything falls apart, then people welcome with open arms some NWO to “fix” everything. Not sure if I will live long enough to see that day though, but I wish I could just to see the craziness first hand even though it won’t be fun.

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  • #
    PeterS

    The Qld election is very revealing. It goes to show the fear campaign run by the ALP around the virus and lock downs worked very well, only because there are far too many gullible and non-thinking voters. The US elections will be very revealing too.

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    • #

      So everyone who doesn’t agree with you is a gullible non-thinker?

      People who voted not to let a chinese bioweapon run freely might say the same about those who ignore the data on lockdowns working.

      It’s not like there are difficult decisions, scores of unknowns, and many factors to balance. Perhaps reducing the world to binary 1 0 conditions is not the best way to solve a crisis?

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  • #
    David Maddison

    What does it say for the poor mental state of the Sheeple that a socialist got re-elected in Queensland?

    And in Victoriastan, the Sheeple were stupid enough to previously elect the socialist Andrews TWICE. I think it’s highly likely he’ll be elected a third time in two years. The Sheeple will have forgotten about his gross mismanagement of COVID by then but they’ll remember all the “free stuff” he hands out at the expense of actual productive taxpayers such as myself.

    With voters this dumb, we have little hope of getting Australia out of one of the world’s most fanatical commitments to the lie of anthropogenic global warming or anything else on the Marxist agenda.

    52

    • #
      PeterS

      It’s clear what it says. There are too many who are asleep, gullible, don’t give a damn, can’t think for themselves so rely on what the MSM and politicians say, or all of the above. That’s Ok, we can watch and learn or more likely forget.

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      • #

        It also says the right wing oppositions have failed to offer a better alternative.

        They missed the chance to say they would have closed borders faster (what happened to “build a wall”) and stop a chinese bioweapon from running freely through the economy destroying jobs as well as lives.

        The left were late and incompetent, but the opposition has not convinced the population they would have done any better.

        Where has any right wing party said our pandemic preparedness was a disaster waiting to happen and they would make sure we never listened to the WHO on borders again, or trust the Chinese to tell us what was really going on. Where did the right wing oppositions say they had a plan to bring manufacturing home to shore up supply lines, generate cheap electricity, get serious about Vitamin D, UVC, increasing ventilation and air flow and temperatures indoors (which needs cheap electricity). Where did the right say they would allow free choice about vaccinations with no financial penalties and encourage a range of options for people (antivirals like HCQ, ivermectin, bromhexine, zinc, monoclonal antibodies).

        The right oppositions have failed to protect lives or jobs. They sometimes even repeat what President Xi says “it’s just the flu”. He thanks them. The right haven’t offered to value or protect the old, despite them being a large cohort of right wing voters.

        As I predicted, most people don’t want to catch a disease with unknown long term consequences and a very high death rate for their grandparents generation. Is that so stupid? Young people, who face a low personal risk, still don’t want virus waves that close hotels and restaurants and cost them jobs and lifestyle. They know their own jobs are at risk. They vote to keep their local economy free and open (without outsiders bringing in a virus known to spread rapidly and inevitably to lockdowns).

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        • #
          PeterS

          You clearly haven’t been following my comments about both major parties. I have stated many times how PM Morrison is so spineless and a hypocrite when it comes to emissions and his chest beating nonsense of how good we are at meeting and beating our targets. It makes me sick to see just a supposedly intelligent man stoop to such low levels. Having said all that if you think the ALP+Greens can do a better job then go for it.

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        • #

          They missed the chance to say they would have closed borders faster

          they couldn’t say that as there are plenty of quotes in the media and parliament that show this to be untrue. Well OK they could say that but they wouldn’t get away with it.

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    • #
      Graeme No.3

      David:

      Andrews has a problem that he hasn’t thought about. All very well (that needs rephrasing!) wrecking the State economy but what happens in the next 2 years before the next election?
      Increased public service numbers mean more money needed.
      Decreased small business activity with many close to bankruptcy due to State Govt. actions. The entrepreneurs aren’t just going to regroup and spend to start again, especially in Victoria. Other States (maybe not Qld) will look better places to be in business.
      So taxes and charges will be increased, further discouraging investment.
      The Federal Government is unlikely (indeed unable) to bail Victoria out.
      Running a big deficit will be difficult as investors will be wary of getting repayment.
      So ultimately Andrews will have to cut Public Service numbers and Social Welfare, which are his main supporters.

      30

  • #
    beowulf

    Despite widespread Covid shut-downs; despite BLM riots burning and looting businesses en masse; despite Democrat governors and mayors encouraging the riots; despite the MSM and academia talking the peaceful riots up and economic achievement down, the US economy surged ahead in the 3rd quarter with a tally of 33.1% GDP growth — the fastest recorded growth ever. The previous best was 16.7% in 1950 in the post-war boom. (Remember that the US reports growth as an extrapolated annualised figure, unlike most other developed economies that report actual quarterly rates.)

    That is a very impressive number given the circumstances; a great number even in normal times.

    This 33% rise came after an annualised drop of 31.4% in the 2nd quarter, so the bounce-back is outstanding. By comparison, the Eurozone suffered a drop of 40.3% in the 2nd quarter. So much for the fantastic EU.

    Suck on that Joe & Kamala.

    https://www.michaelsmithnews.com/2020/10/president-trump-presides-over-33-rate-of-gdp-growth-outstanding.html

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    Jojodogfacedboy

    Our government have finally broken society beyond repair.
    They made every avenue illegal which then only leaves a violent end to come as if your going to jail, your going to make sure it is for a good reason and not this flakey change the laws every few days which really isn’t for breaking some law which our politicians are immune from prosecution.

    There said it…I’m mean and I’m mad!

    20

    • #
      el gordo

      Are you Welsh?

      03

    • #
      PeterS

      Don’t get too mad. Just bend with the wind and stock up on lots of popcorn to watch the world go completely bat crazy. It’s like watching a movie where the majority of people are zombies being eaten by a plague of hungry rats.

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      • #
        DOC

        Peter. Pied Piper and lemmings come to mind.

        Until the ’60′s, politicians in general came from the community workforce. Their aims were to better the work and living conditions affecting the nation’s people.

        Today, politicians rise through Party ranks. At the top, continuin personal power is the game. Subjugation of the masses comes from clever use of morality plays and deceptions. Failing that, they feed people cake at the expense of other workers. Anything for power! Both major Parties taking the knee to false science originating from the undemocratic UN. The UN is little more than a power chasing political system on steroids, with its own agenda composed often through the input of the worlds worst dictatorships. The UN, via associated elites and politicians that fawn over it, aims for taking ultimate power over nations that yield to it – generally the democracies.

        Trump is the one and only disruptor that the democracies have to shred these undemocratic political power plays that aim to subdue we that live in the democracies. Democracies are the devil of these movements. Only in Democracies do the people have the power to peacefully resist these otherwise uncontrollable despots. This so far successful resistance is the cause of the agitation and extremism in media, leftwing socialist politics, globalists and the billionaires with their electronic media companies, all of whom work towards our subjugation to their cause. All openly express their hatreds of resistant people, as happens again in this election. Violence in words has transformed in desperation to violence of action against the resisting citizens in the streets of the USA.

        The democrats openly promote taking control of the Supreme Court and the electoral system of the USA such that they retain power permanently.Democrats promote defunding the police, releasing the worst of prisoners, kill the bail system and allow takeover of the streets by the destitute and no sanitation. They promise to disarm the citizenry, have used the powers of the FBI, CIA, DOJ for nefarious purposes against an elected President, destroyed national heroes like Flynn and others that dare claim their rights to their freedoms.

        Despite Paul Kelly and Greg Sheridan’s articles in this weekend Australian, reality is, if Trump loses then the peoples of the democracies of the West lose big time in 2 days time. IMHO!

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        • #
          Sceptical Sam

          Yes, I too was surprised by the views of Kelly and Sheridan in “The Weekend Australian”. Quite bizarre.

          10

        • #
          el gordo

          ‘ … if Trump loses then the peoples of the democracies of the West lose big time in 2 days time. IMHO!’

          That is simply not true, there will be an orderly transfer of power and Western democracies won’t be any worse off.

          The trade war would come to an end and military brinkmanship eased.

          03

  • #
    el gordo

    Note how the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool turns the La Nina cool waters into warm water again and sends it back east.

    https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/ocean/surface/currents/overlay=sea_surface_temp_anomaly/orthographic=-190.56,-5.80,1060/loc=166.314,-9.086

    03

    • #
      RickWill

      And none of it warmer than 32C. Physically impossible for open ocean water to exceed that temperature.

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      • #
        el gordo

        ‘The Indo-Pacific Warm Pool holds a unique place on the globe. It is a large area [>30 × 106 km2] that is characterised by permanent surface temperature >28 °C and is therefore called the ‘heat engine’ of the globe.’

        De Deckker 2016

        01

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    beowulf

    Oh what a tragedy! Twitter stocks crash by 20% as users tune out over its censorship antics.

    https://www.michaelsmithnews.com/2020/10/jack-twitter-learn-the-hard-way-go-woke-go-broke.html

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  • #

    Hey, have a look at the image at this link. This is a Load Curve for a typical Summer day for the last and most recent Summer. I’m running up a dual Post for my home site comparing the four renewables to actual power generation/consumption.

    This is as close to an average for a Summers day, all 24 hours. There are 91 days of this Summer (2019/20 hence a leap year and the extra day) and there are six or so indicators, so I had to find a day when all six of those indicators were close to the average.

    However, go across the page to the time point 6.30PM. and that’s the major power consumption time for the day, virtually every day of the year, and power consumption at this time is critical, because everyone is now home from work for the day, and firing up everything in the home. The huge workplace and school increased consumption earlier in the day has eased back slightly at this time, 6.30PM. Note how both versions of Solar power have, umm, ceased for the day. and note the total contribution from those four renewables, around 5000MW, most of that from Hydro.

    Now, at that same time point roll up vertically to the black line of ACTUAL power consumption, and note that figure, umm, 26,000MW. (Keep in mind this is the average for Summer, so it’s like this every day)

    Okay then, so that ….. ‘gap’ between all four renewables and actual power is 21000MW.

    EVERY day of Summer, that gap is supplied by fossil fuel, and 18,000MW to 19,000MW of that gap IS coal fired power.

    Now let’s do away with coal fired power.

    Both versions of Solar have gone bye bye for the day. No more hydro, because, well, no more new dams for that, and pumped hydro is a nett consumer of power anyway. So that leaves wind power eh!

    That average there for wind at that time point is 2500MW to 3000MW. So we need to multiply the existing wind power Nameplate by seven or eight. Or perhaps half wind and half batteries, maybe. 10,000MW of batteries???? Good luck with that. Well, with batteries they need to be charged up so that’s 10000MW of charging power. Umm, those four renewables NEVER reach that high, and if they did, you either use that power for consumption ….. OR use it to charge the batteries. You can’t do both.

    TWENTY ONE THOUSAND MEGAWATTS

    Please trust me on this.

    Coal fired power has a very very long future, no matter what bank or economist or alphabet news outlet or green supporter says.

    Look again at the image. It’s the same as this ….. EVERY day of the year.

    Those four renewables never even get close to the minimum power consumption, you know the BASE LOAD.

    That’s why this simple Load Curve is the most important thing in ALL the power generation debate, and no one even knows about it.

    Tony.

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    • #
      David Maddison

      Good points as usual Tony.

      However, I disagree with including hydro in the same category as rooftop and large scale solar and wind “renewables”.

      Traditional hydro (pre the global warming lie) is a properly engineered and costed power generation system which provides predictable low cost power just like coal, gas and nuclear generation. It should be counted with those “reliables”.

      Naturally, “renewable” and Turnbull inspired hydro such as Snowy Hydro 2 is not in the “properly engineered and costed” category and can be tossed in with the other subsidised garbage of solar and wind “generation” along with any battery backup that goes with it.

      Including traditional real hydro among the “renewables” just gives real hydro a bad name and gives solar and wind a good reputation they don’t deserve.

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      • #

        Including hydro with renewables is something that won’t change. ‘They’ have included it all along, and that just cannot be changed, no matter what we say.

        I only call these things because that’s how it has always been done.

        The only thing I will NOT say is wind …..farms, and I will always refer to them as wind plant.

        You can see how, at every point, those green supporters have co-opted the language to suit them, and now it has become established.

        There’s nothing we can do to change those things, other than talk about it amongst ourselves.

        Tony.

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        • #
          David Maddison

          I understand your point Tony but why should we allow them to control the agenda? They have no more right than we do (but they are masters at controlling the agenda and we’re not).

          For the sake of statistics, we might not have a choice (or do we?) but at least we should continually point out that we have no problem with properly engineered and costed hydro which ranks with coal, gas and nuclear as a cheap, reliable power generation system, but we do have a problem with schemes like SH2 which is a contrived expensive political fantasy of Turnbull and is a net power consumer.

          20

          • #
          • #
            DOC

            David Maddison.
            You can’t control the agenda. Currently, public media Censorship imposed by media companies will block you, and professional bodies, public and political, will all seek to destroy you on any chink they can find in your armour. That’s the disgrace that festers even in so called democracies, and of which elected governments are part. Science by intimidation.

            It is hoped that Tehan’s legislation over the Ridd case will be the beginning of the end for this disgraceful distortion of the scientific method. If we can progress that legislation a little further we will get the entire claptrap that substitutes for modern science in the climate area tossed into the dustbin of history. Science and progress of the human condition demands restoration of open debate and challenge to that discipline.We can then take a meaningful fight to the public against the extremes of the green and environmental movement, and restore balance in how we utilise national resources locked away politically by governments seeking power through the votes.

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        BoyfromTottenham

        And David, I agree that hydro shouldn’t be classified as RE. Here is another reason: remember that hydro generation has inertia, just like a coal- or gas-fired generator, so it doesn’t destabilise the baseload grid like other RE. NZ is 90+% hydro and doesn’t have stability problems.

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    RickWill

    Most people know Climate Models have no predictive capability. The fundamental error is a belief that there is a “greenhouse effect” whereby more water in the atmosphere causes the surface to warm. There is no such effect. The sea surface cannot exceed 305K anywhere on the planet apart from the Persian Gulf.

    The easiest way to demonstrate how badly Climate Models depart reality is to compare predictions with reality for equatorial waters. These water simply cannot exceed 305K. It is physically impossible with the current atmosphere no matter how much CO2 it contains. When precipitable water in the atmosphere exceeds 38mm it goes into monsoon mode near the equator and that turns to cyclone mode at higher latitudes. The associated highly reflective cloud reduces surface level insolation to near nothing – day becomes night.

    This chart compares the reality of direct surface temperature for the equatorial moored buoys versus the output from the CIMP3 climate model for the same tropical water:
    https://1drv.ms/u/s!Aq1iAj8Yo7jNg3LJuByjstkozrzc
    Easy to see that the prediction shows a warming trend of some 0.5C this century compared with reality of zero trend. The climate models become increasingly more ridiculous for forecast further into the future.

    It should be obvious to even climate scientists that their models have zero relationship with reality. They are showing results that are physically impossible.

    30

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    OriginalSteve

    Uh oh…it appears its a “regieme change” in the offing….from a “grassroots” group….?

    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/craig-kelly-must-go-search-on-for-modern-candidate-for-hughes-20201030-p56a7m.html

    “Craig Kelly must go!’: search on for ‘modern’ candidate for Hughes”

    “Now a well-organised group called ”We Are Hughes” has emerged in his electorate, with one goal: they want to be represented by someone who will back sane policies driven by evidence including addressing climate change and they are of the strong view that Kelly doesn’t cut it.

    40

    • #
      PeterS

      There’s are moves everywhere to move the West to far left as possible. It’s a slow process but it’s working. The people are asleep and by the time they wake up it will be far too late. It’s probably already too late given the calibre of leaders at all levels of government. Trump is the only leader who is different but that’s an anomaly that might be removed very soon. Of course it all could have been reversed if ALL the Western leaders worked together to fight the left. Instead, apart from Trump they are all working together to do the exact opposite, deliberately or not. Go figure.

      60

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    David Maddison

    What do you think of supposed Dark Matter?

    Is it even science if there is no way to observe it and nothing interacts with it?

    Why are its proponents so sure it exists based on orbital motions of stars around galactic centres? Might they not be missing some real matter, or might not Modified Newtonian Dynamics (MOND) apply?

    And if Dark Matter is real, doesn’t that invalidate the Standard Model?

    21

    • #
      PeterS

      If it can’t be measured or monitored in any way then it’s not science. It would be more like philosophy. If one day it can be measured then it becomes science.
      I find these descriptors fit for purpose:

      Science is about empirical knowledge; philosophy is about a priori knowledge (if it exists). Science is about contingent facts; philosophy is about necessary truths (if they exist). Science is about descriptive facts; philosophy is about normative truths (if they exist).

      10

    • #
      PeterS

      The topic of Dark Matter is so full of assumptions and hypotheses it’s clearly questionable to call it a philosophy let alone a science. For example, they are now claiming Dark Matter is associated with sterile neutrinos. The problem is sterile neutrinos according to astrophysicists are totally hypothetical. They are supposed to be new subatomic particles that do not interact with normal matter except that they can ‘mix’ with the other three real neutrinos. The idea is that these exotic neutrinos add a lot of otherwise-unobservable Dark Matter to the halo of galaxies, therefore that extra matter solves the enigma of why stars move too fast around their galactic centres. It is also alleged that these exotic particles can decay into ordinary real neutrinos, and when they do, they emit an X-ray photon with a characteristic energy of 3.5 keV. But real data refutes such a possibility otherwise we should be seeing this faint X-ray glow everywhere. So now we have physicists brawling over whether any of this is real or imaginary. And the need to see it is indeed very critical for the Big Bang supporters. Without Dark Matter filling the universe (over 85%) the Big Bang paradigm is dead.

      30

    • #
      el gordo

      ‘Dark matter is material that cannot be seen directly. We know that dark matter exists because of the effect it has on objects that we can observe directly.’ NASA

      04

      • #
        PeterS

        No we don’t. That’s a myth being told by various scientists, much like the myth of CAGW. No one can see the effects of Dark Matter simply because the effects they thought would be there are not there. See my discussion earlier on sterile neutrinos. The effects that we do see can be attributed to any number other causes, such as black holes.

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        • #
          Peter C

          If Dark matter cannot be observed and has no demonstrable effects it should go the way of Ether.

          50

          • #
            Serp

            Dark matter was shoehorned into cosmology to eliminate its non-trivial discrepancies; no layman can countenance such imposture but the poor devils enjoying the bounteous research grants are obliged to live with what they must know is a blatant absurdity at which they ought to be laughing.

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    David Maddison

    https://www.frontpagemag.com/fpm/2020/10/coronavirus-experts-were-wrong-now-they-need-daniel-greenfield/

    (See link for full article.)

    The Coronavirus Experts Were Wrong, Now They Need Scapegoats

    It’s not about fighting the virus, but punishing political and cultural enemies.

    Thu Oct 15, 2020 Daniel Greenfield

    The problem isn’t just the China Virus. It’s that we adopted the China Model to fight it.

    Public health experts adopted China’s draconian lockdowns without knowing how well they really worked and in a country that, fortunately, lacks the power to truly enforce them.

    China’s deceptiveness and lack of transparency meant that we did not know how well anything that the Communist dictatorship did to battle the virus that it spawned actually worked. Despite that, our public health experts, and those of most free countries, adopted the China Model.

    We don’t know how well the China Model worked for the People’s Republic of China, but it failed in every free country that tried it. Lockdowns eventually gave way to reopenings and new waves of infection. This was always going to happen because not even the more socialist European countries have the police state or the compliant populations of a Communist dictatorship.

    (Go to link for rest.)

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    • #

      Most states didn’t adopt the most useful part of the Chinese model which was to impose strict local borders and stop the virus spreading domestically.

      The high hospitalization rate for the virus makes lockdowns inevitable. That’s what’s happening in Europe now.

      It was just luck that warm weather, high Vitamin D, a young demographic, and some masks reduced the hospitalization and death rates in September. But now that they’ve lost the summer advantage, and the infections are spreading to older age groups, the inevitable hospitalization rates lead to lockdowns.

      Which politician wants to be responsible for doctors having to choose who misses out on an ICU bed?

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      • #
        Peter C

        The high hospitalization rate for the virus makes lockdowns inevitable. That’s what’s happening in Europe now.

        Does anyone have figures for hospitalisation rates?

        Italy is showing 5% as serious or critical which I assume means hospital and ICU. Worldometer does not publish figures for UK or Spain. Are UK hospitals full of Covid cases or empty?

        Worldwide the serious/critical rate is about 0.7%.

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        • #
          Peter C

          Red Thumb for Jo was not from me.

          I just asked a question about hospitalization rates.

          30

        • #
          RickWill

          Peter
          The linked site only updates weekly but has been a really good guide. It is showing UK ICU beds are full now. I figure that is why Boris is locking down.
          https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-kingdom?view=resource-use&tab=trend&resource=all_resources

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          • #
            Peter C

            Thanks Rick,

            The linked site only updates weekly but has been a really good guide. It is showing UK ICU beds are full now.

            A useful site but does it show ICU beds full? What I read was a lot of modelling and very little actual data.

            30

            • #
              RickWill

              Peter
              If you move the curser to the current date in the hospital section it gives actual number. It states 1352 ICU beds available and 1279 needed. That will be a projection from earlier in the week but I expect it is close. I doubt Boris would call a lockdown if the situation was not dire.

              The press is all over Trump’s rallies for creating Covid spread but the situation in Europe is worse. They are now close to double the daily death toll of the USA. Cases almost twice that of USA.

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              • #

                Rick

                Bit bemused at your comments. Some 7% of britains hospital beds have covid patients in them, a fraction of the numbers in April when the system coped perfectly well.

                https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/10/20/dont-believe-scare-stories-hospitals-running-icu-beds/

                There are many thousands of beds available in the nightingale hospitals specially set up to house covid patients. Most have not been opened at all yet. There are some 10000 ventilators available in total in the UK I understand.

                During the autumn and winter hospitals often reach almost capacity level due to flu. We are a very long way from that at present so we will have to wait and see what the future brings. Flu infections have been very light this season to date presumably because of all the hygiene precautions to combat covid.

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          Peter

          With very few exceptions british hospitals are by no means full. ICU beds are also not full other than in central Liverpool perhaps.

          At this time of year there is always an upsurge in demand as flu for example starts to rear its head. We have yet to see it

          The nightingale hospitals have as far as I am aware not been used at all. Our local one in Exeter might be opened but cases are low down here in the southwest.

          The large surge on infections is largely restricted to northern cities where the reckless young thought it would be a good Idea to go to a party or a rave or meet en masse in pubs.

          Very many of us with low infection rates are totally bemused as to why the heavily infected northern cities should have any bearing on us.

          Mind you, at least we do not have a curfew or have to fill in a form every time we need to leave the house as the French do. Various EU countries have had very severe lockdowns and compulsory mask wearing and it has got them nowhere

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    dinn, rob

    meet the chair of secret NSABB gain-of-function risk review committee https://balance10.blogspot.com/2020/10/meet-chair-of-secret-nsabb-gain-of.html

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    joseph

    Just in case there’s someone here who hasn’t read this . . . . . .

    https://unlimitedhangout.com/2020/10/investigative-reports/operation-warp-speed/

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    • #

      Sad to hear thanks Joseph. Where are the true libertarians pointing out the need to transparency and open data for vaccine research?

      30

    • #
      David Maddison

      A terrible lack of transparency.

      40

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      DOC

      Almost smells enough to suggest the US is seeing this as a possible biological warfare incident where normal safeguard practices become suborned to the prime directive of a swift functional and economic recovery. It is apparent that COVID-19 matters are disrupting normal State functions throughout most of the Western world. Dictatorships don’t have to bother too much about the comforts of their citizens; they weld doors shut to confine the infected.

      30

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        tom

        I believe I have read the pc language for this in a earlier post. They were just doing the responsible thing and preventing the spread domestically.
        There now that sounds much better.

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    Orson

    EXCLUSIVE-The National Security Nightmare of Hunter Biden’s Abandoned Laptop ledes the Sunday Mail onlines story.

    It is graphic, long, and detailed — and it is glorious in its Schadenfreude ways for Trump and the Tuesday American election.
    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8901193/National-security-nightmare-Hunter-Bidens-laptop.html

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    MP

    Time magazine is now pushing the WEF naritive.

    https://time.com/collection/great-reset/

    In partnership with Sompo holdings, could of just called it the CCP.
    https://www.sompo-hd.com/en/

    Its 2023, how we fixed the global economy. https://time.com/collection/great-reset/5900739/fix-economy-by-2023/

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    WokeBuster

    Looks like Australian bet shops are starting to restrict Trump bets. I tried to put on a line bet with a +81 college vote start for Trump and the most I could bet was $220. Gambler heaven is coming to an end.

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    DOC

    It seems the world of COVID-19 hasn’t changed much since it began a year ago.
    The fundamental riddle still exists, but the pressures from other necessities are becoming more serious by the day. The riddle: How to reopen safely yet avoid another viral assault.

    Lockdowns don’t just stop viral spread; they stop the economy, destroy the financial affairs of people, destroy small businesses and jobs. They kill people’s visions for their futures; they have secondary health consequences, impact on relationships, and may well have profound effects on our banking system stability and housing market when government assistance has to be withdrawn.

    We don’t have time on our side. We gamble that Trump is right about vaccines. If that doesn’t come off, there is an existence to face up to. The World continues to turn. There will have to be a return by compromise. Nations cannot exist without an economy. We are exactly where we began a year ago. The basic question has no proven answer!

    Using fear to make compulsion by government acceptible has simply made harder the matter of doing what is essentially, to live by compromise. Duty of Care extends well beyond just the bounds of health. For governments it covers all other matters of existence as well. This virus is a relatively benign one for most people, even if I am well into its danger zone. It ain’t plague!

    Island nations are in unique positions. Most of the world has common borders and that is showing as the viral waves keep coming after each suppression. We don’t even have proof of immunity after infection, so how much longer can we hang on waiting simply for a vaccine? It seems that despite apparently finding reasonably successful therapies, nothing is changing in our approach to opening up living, with care, with the virus. As for ICU beds it may be a revelation to some people here that even without COVID-19 those running our own ICU’s, when I was working years ago, had finite bed numbers and occupancy was subject to hard decision making. Sometimes in emergencies alternate hospital facilities have to be opened up and fully serviced – if one can find the personel trained to do the job. One almost has to plan for rolling lockdowns, not to eradicate the virus but do what we were supposed to be doing – control the virus temporarily to keep the load manageable.

    Elections are showing we are like captives that after time come to love their captors. Voters, not wanting to face their futures, are re-electing the governments that confine them for security from a danger which for most, in practice is benign. Yet,in America it is obvious many many people are willing to take their chances to live a life despite the viral travails, remembering there are 350million Americans, and many very big cities.

    Trump has a duty of care which he obviously assesses as being fulfilled by supporting the States with equipment etc as required, whilest igniting the economy as vital to providing for everything including defence of the nation and its interests abroad. He is pilloried but I’m still waiting for those that pillory him to come up with a viable alternative, and it won’t be with Bidens mass lockdowns. But can’t go there because one would have to wonder about the relevant information coming from that laptop and question the socialist motives of the Democrats and their mates.

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    CHRIS

    Is COVID-19 the Black Death or the Spanish Flu? NO! This virus is just like any other virus in human history… deaths are dependent on the individual’s immune system and /or pre-existing medical conditions. I contracted COVID-19 in June. I’m over 60, diabetic (type 2 insulin) and asthmatic. I got through it because, as my GP said, I have an excellent immune system, and I didn’t need to be hospitalised. But what if I didn’t have a good immunity system? I consider myself to be one of the lucky ones. Like other pandemics of the past, the death rate of COVID-19 depends entirely on the medical condition and health/fitness of the individual, and nothing else.

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    Another Ian

    “We Don’t Need No Stinking Giant Mirrors”

    A Medicine Hat solar thermal project was demolished for scrap last week after the city, fed gov, and provincial carbon tax fund invested a total of $13M into the project. After an unsuccessful trial, Medicine Hat was unable to sell off the equipment. https://t.co/fncnx7Uch0

    — oilrespect (@oilrespect) October 27, 2020 ”

    http://www.smalldeadanimals.com/index.php/2020/11/01/we-dont-need-no-stinking-giant-mirrors-16/

    Obviously in high demand (/s)

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      Another Ian

      In comments


      Paul Coyle
      November 1, 2020 at 4:12 am

      Renewable.
      Build it.
      Rip it down.
      Do it again.
      See? Renewable!

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        Another Ian

        And


        Buddy
        November 1, 2020 at 7:50 am

        Insanity is having uranium underfoot while staring at the sun.”

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          Another Ian

          Another


          John Chittick
          November 1, 2020 at 1:05 pm

          These problems can be solved at the early stages by giving the proponents a copy of the demand curve of the grid and stating that they are responsible for matching it with their own baseload / backup / batteries / whatever – all at competitive pricing. It’s the only way to silence all these “experts” claiming that solar is now so cheap. Unreliables are grid parasites.”

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    CHRIS

    Jo… you are correct in your statement about genotypes. When it all boils down, it is partially a matter of luck as to what genomes you carry. The research into human DNA and genomes has, in my opinion, only scratched the surface. We’ve a long way to go before we fully understand the human condition, and the ever-changing nature of DNA as humans continue to evolve. We must remember that humans are an extremely recent addition to the life-history of the Earth, and whether humans can exist for as long as the Dinosaurs (IE; over 200 million years) is a question that can never be answered. I would love to see if humans could survive the next Mass Extinction Event (or go the way of the Dinosaurs or the Trilobites).

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