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How to ignore 94% of Covid deaths?

Be wary of junk data and junk conclusions

Death data has become a political tool (stretched both up and down by vested interests). We’ve all heard of the motorcyclist who crashed into the Covid tally, and the payments for US docs. We know there’s junk data out there, but the suggestion we only count deaths “from” Covid, and not the deaths “with” Covid is unscientific in the extreme.

Stick with me. We all want WuFlu to be nothing, but scientists and skeptics need to pick their targets carefully. Don’t lose sight of the real scandal and the real solutions. It’s a travesty that people are dying while cheap vitamins and antivirals are being ignored. Let’s fight for Vitamin D, HCQ, Ivermectin, and all the other potentials like Interferon, Bromhexine, Melatonin, steroids, asthma drugs etc etc. But let’s not get distracted by a hopeful fantasy that the true US  “death tally” is only 6% of Covid deaths in the US.

There’s an idea out there that only 9,680 people have died of Covid in the US, not 161,392 people. It’s because of this CDC quote:

“For 6% of the deaths, COVID-19 was the only cause mentioned. For deaths with conditions or causes in addition to COVID-19, on average, there were 2.6 additional conditions or causes per death. “

Ask yourself: Does Diabetes protect you from Covid?

Think it through. In this scenario, in order to be considered a real coronavirus death, the deceased not only have to have been tested, they can’t have any other contributing factor listed on the death certificate. Which means effectively that people with high blood pressure, cancer, heart disease, asthma, diabetes now cannot possibly die of Covid. (Won’t they be glad to hear that?) Nor can people who don’t get tested. And nor can obese people — unless they slim down first, then die.

In a world where only 6% of the US Covid death tally are truly due to Covid, you can protect yourself from Covid by getting fat, not getting tested and getting diabetes. I don’t think so.

Deaths are not simple one-cause events

Most deaths are due to a bunch of bad factors overwhelming the system. The only pure deaths are things like bullets to the head (in homocide, not even in suicide which has its own collection of contributing factors). Death certificates reflect that, allowing doctors to list a lot of contributing factors (read ZdoggMD for a US doctors perspective). The 6% of certificates which didn’t list other factors may represent 10,000 totally healthy people cut down ahead of time, which is it’s own tragedy, surely. But, mundanely, it may also represent that some busy distracted doctors don’t always fill in the form properly.

The question that matters is: How much longer would victims have lived if Covid hadn’t hit them?

We will all die sometime. What matters is whether we are losing people who would have lived years longer. The average age of death in the US might be 78, but that means about half the population expects to live to be older than that. Some 78 year olds have a lot to contribute. Sometime in the next four years, the leader of the free world will be 78.

The average 78 year old can still expect to live ten more years.

So people with co-morbidites are at higher risk of dying of Covid, but someone with high blood pressure can survive years with the condition. Covid may trigger their early death, but if the US borders had been shut in time, that same person might have survived for another decade of holiday and family moments. Another decade of voting and adding a long-life perspective to younger generations.

The real toll of Covid may be higher than the listed Covid deaths

Get ready: Rather than being 6% of the official tally, there are credible arguments that the real tally is probably higher than the official tally, not lower. The US is not testing adequately, the test positivity is still above 5%, and for large periods it’s been as high as 15%. Australia’s test positivity has mostly been below 1%. We know there are many missed cases in the USA.

Mortality counts are far higher than Covid deaths alone:

Nationwide, 223,900 more people have died than usual from March 15 to Aug. 8, according to C.D.C. estimates, which adjust current death records to account for typical reporting lags. That number is 62,000 higher than the official count of coronavirus deaths for that period. Higher-than-normal death rates are now widespread across the country; only Alaska and Hawaii, states outside the contiguous United States, show numbers that look similar to recent years. – New York Times.

So 60,000 extra people have died in the pandemic above and beyond the covid deaths listed on death certificates. Some of them were due to the pandemic, and not due to Covid. But equally, some of them were due to Covid in people that didn’t get tested. There were people who died from heart attacks and strokes who wouldn’t have died if they weren’t afraid to visit hospital during an epidemic. We know people died of cancer due to delays in treatments. We know people in homes died because their families couldn’t get in to see them and report neglect, or changes that only loved ones can spot.  We know people died because of the way governments responded to the pandemic — but some of these people, or even more, would have died even if there were no lockdowns. If the virus ran free in the population, more high risk people would have been afraid to visit the local ER.

For every motorcyclist who was listed as a Covid death — and shouldn’t have been — there might have been ten heart attacks or strokes in people who didn’t realize they had Covid. Ambulance officers reported turning up to homes to find people sitting up with blood oxygen saturation levels we thought were impossible — a classic sign of covid-19.

We need to know excess deaths for the next ten years

Has Covid lowered life expectancy in a measurable way? Anyone who claims to know the definitive answer at this stage is making stuff up.

All death statistics now are subject to change. Three quarters of mild to moderate Covid cases showed signs of heart damage. How do we know if a heart attack victim who wasn’t tested for Covid had an infection that ultimately caused their death? We don’t.

Only changes to excess deaths in coming years will reveal how many effective years Covid has stolen from people. We’ll never know on an individual basis, but only on a population-wide basis as we plot ongoing changes in deaths due to many conditions. Will there be a drop in stroke deaths next year because people at high risk of strokes died a year too soon? Has Covid fished out the high risk people from 100% or only from 20% of the population?

After the pandemic has long gone, PhD’s will be made by studying graphs of excess mortality from various conditions in various towns.  Will there by a dip in mortality figures “after the virus” — a classic sign that the virus took only a short time off the tally, or will the spike stand above the norms, marking deaths of people who died too young? Will there be fewer stroke victims in 2021 because they died in 2020, or will strokes continue at much the same rate?

The Cause of Death is not singular or obvious

Death is a complex event with a chain of dependent variables, which all contribute to the outcome. The true cause of death is often impossible to know without a full autopsy, and sometimes even with one.

To understand how complicated this is, read the 8 page coroner’s report on Patricia Dowd, possibly the first Covid death in the US. She was 57, with no known cardiac risk factors, but was overweight. To accurately figure out what caused her death took hours of work by someone with years of medical training, plus many blood tests, a long write up, and a cost of $3,000 to $5,000.

Her cause of death is listed — somewhat ambiguously, and in desperate need of punctuation — as:

“Acute Hemopericardium due to Rupture of Left Ventricle due to transmural myocardial ischemia (Infarction) with a minor component of myocarditis due to Covid-19 infection.”  Feb 10th 2020

SARS-Cov2 RNA was detected in Dowd’s heart, trachea, lung, and intestine. She had no coronary atherosclerosis or thombosis. She complained of a “flu like illness” in the days leading up to her death. But, since she was foolish enough to have one comorbidity (excess weight and a BMI of 31, possibly by following the recommended low fat diet), she would later be described by some as “died with covid” not “died from covid”.  So even though her heart was officially described as “rupturing”, which was broadcast in many sensational headlines, some people appear to be saying it is just a coincidence that she died at the same time as she had a Covid diagnosis. Seriously?

Even car accidents can be caused by Covid

It sounds ridiculous. But it’s even possible that people who died of road trauma might not have if they weren’t infected. How many? Who knows. We’ll have to wait for those excess death studies, and even then we won’t know for sure. I make the point only to show how complicated the cause of death can be.

Imagine someone with early stage Covid, untested and unaware that they were sick. Rapidly sinking into fatigue, they they make a stupid driving error that they wouldn’t have made if they weren’t infected. This sort of thing often happens, even just with the spring daylight savings transition.

Study links daylight saving time to 28 fatal car accidents per year in the US

The evidence shows about a six percent increase in the risk of fatal traffic accidents in the week after the time change each spring. In other words, more than 28 fatal accidents could be prevented yearly in the U.S. if the DST transition were abolished. The effect is especially pronounced in the morning hours and in locations further west within a time zone.

Since it was first introduced, the spring transition to DST has been linked to a variety of problems, including increased risk of heart attack, workplace accidents, and suicides. There had been evidence suggesting an increased risk of car accidents, too.  (Fritz et al, 2020)*

The cause of a driving death is often a judgement mistake, and we know Covid infections cause cognitive deficits, loss of attention, dizziness, and fatigue. In other words, a true post mortem would take a PhD thesis length analysis of their past driving record, level of illness, type of mistake, sleep patterns, etc. etc. ad infinitum — and we probably still couldn’t say for sure whether they would be alive  today if they hadn’t had Covid.

What looks like, smells like and acts like a deadly pandemic?

A wave of excess deaths is traveling around the world. The places with the highest peaks in excess deaths also happen to have the largest positive tests to coronavirus RNA. Coincidence? They also have the highest rates of healthcare worker morbidity and mortality.

Twelve days after quarantine restrictions start or significantly increase in severity, the rate of new infections drops off to a lower rate of exponential growth. People change their behavior in reaction to this new threat as they learn more about it, which is constantly changing all our statistics. It’s highly dynamic situation.

Covid is known to cause major blood clotting which damages organs. It has caused strokes, heart attacks, heart damage, low oxygen levels, and kidney damage, even in mild to moderate cases. There is still much we don’t know about it. Covid probably came out of a Chinese biowarfare lab. Is there something they know about it that we don’t yet? Is it significant that the Chinese put on the most strenuous quarantine measures to date, stricter than any other country? Or is that just another coincidence?

Ominously, there are now four known cases of reinfection only months after the original infection.

* * *

It’s a hot contentious topic. Sorry if it’s not what some what to hear, but thanks greatly to those who stuck with this and read this far. Kudos to skeptics who maintain civility and accurate language even when they passionately disagree. Civil debate is what makes skeptics great.

_______________

REFERENCES

Current Biology, Fritz et al.: “A Chronobiological Evaluation of the Acute Effects of Daylight Saving Time on Traffic Accident Risk” www.cell.com/current-biology/f … 0960-9822(19)31678-1 , DOI: 10.1016/j.cub.2019.12.045

* Fritz et al say that there were no lives saved in the fall, though this seems rather odd:  “there were no effects of the fall-back transition to Standard Time (ST) on MVA risk“.

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Rating: 6.8/10 (94 votes cast)
How to ignore 94% of Covid deaths?, 6.8 out of 10 based on 94 ratings

285 comments to How to ignore 94% of Covid deaths?

  • #
    Peter Fitzroy

    succinct and on point! Everyone has a preexisting condition

    1417

    • #

      It is an excellent post. Far too many of these things are re-posted without thought. Remember the one that concluded it could only last about 70 days or eight weeks and would then disappear?
      Sadly you still see people post this or similar. Even though it was about 140 days ago.

      “This is how it is all over the world. Both in countries where they have taken closure steps, like Italy, and in countries that have not had closures, like Taiwan or Singapore. In such countries, there is an increase until the fourth to sixth week, and immediately thereafter, moderation until during the eighth week, it disappears.”

      https://asiatimes.com/2020/04/israeli-professor-offers-alternate-coronavirus-prediction/

      1014

      • #
        David A

        My only negative critique is a lack of the potential excess deaths being attributed to the cost of shut downs, or more accurately potentially attributed to that.

        There are existent studies that reflect statistically higher death rates due to depression, job loss divorce, bankruptcy etc.

        How much higher over what time frame, I don’t know. Is the suicide rate higher?

        70

    • #
      Peter Fitzroy

      This is a particularly draughtiness problem for medical statistics. For example, you are in a drug trial, but unfortunately you get run over by a car. Did the drug play a part? If you are in the placebo group did not taking the drug play a part? This is one reason why drug testing takes so long, you need not only large numbers in your test, but you need to be also able to discount the possible effects of pre existing or accidental effects on the sample group. That is why you compare your test result to the population statistics. Even then you would be very fortunate to reach a 95% confidence value, let alone a 99% one. This is one area in statistics where environment and human health overlap, as in both environmental and human statistics the samples are, by necessity, quite small, compared to the total population (which is just a model anyway)

      86

      • #
        Saighdear

        Haye…… ( aye with a scot’s sigh ) That is the probolem we facewith Pre-emergence herbicides and other prophylactic treatments….. Did they / DO they work? Dunno is the answer- was a funny season and they’ll di’ if they dae an’ they dae if they di’ Point is: wehave the forced expense of dae’n . / complying through TRUST in the system, which nowlooks like a lot has been misplaced: AS Granpa says: we’ve been applying pre-emergence herbicides for over 60 years now, yet the strip which you miss TODAY is as bad as, or worse than ever, before: where do the weeds come from? Prophylactics in Medicine ( Animal Health) – I just dunno, other than it Loads the environment for the chance to develop immunities – and then? And after all that , the current stress of stupid Politicians and the MSM , collectively, make me lose sleep and make poor judgements – so is that ALSO COVID attributed? Oh now-it makesme loose my memeory – it wasGlobal warming , wasn’t it, was it?
        Haye, …. but I’m still alive and able to read Jo’s articles.

        60

        • #
          Peter Fitzroy

          Good point, but…
          In population statistics (does a treatment significantly change an outcome sort of question) two parameters must be met
          1. What is the distribution curve ( which sometimes is confused with the standard norm distribution) – and there are tests for that
          2. Is there an underlying cause which must be included/discounted/ignored. – and there are tests for that.

          an example, quoted further down the thread is the incidence of flu, where the result of distancing, sanitiser etc shows an impressive result compared to a ‘normal’ year

          Could you still get the flu, could you not show any symptoms? These are questions which are outside a population study.

          12

    • #
      TdeF

      Preexisting condition? It’s called life.

      50

    • #
      Bulldust

      I’ll post this here because MedCram succinctly covers the comorbidity question (also vitamin D alternative):

      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_TECf3xSFbU

      [Snip. The rest is off topic at #1.4. I'll move it somewhere. Email coming Bulldust. Please stick to the topic. - Jo]

      61

    • #

      This is the best science web site in the world. And not just climate science, COVID articles too.

      This article is good but makes the mistake that Ive noticed in virtually all COVID articles.

      For COVID infections the results are:
      No symptoms or
      Mild symptoms
      They may add up to 40 percent
      or 400 of 1000

      Normal flu symptoms or
      Serious flu symptoms leading to
      hospitalization and sometimes the ICU
      They may add up to 60 percent
      or 600 of 1000

      Death
      Maybe 0.1 percent, or
      only one person of 1000

      I know this adds up to 1001 of 1000, so sue me!

      Articles almost exclusive focus on the one death of 1000 while the 600 of 1000 who suffer, some with permanent lung damage, are completely ignored. I don’t get it.

      Concerning death certificates, the cause of a natural death is always a major organ failure, not the flu. The presence of a flu infection may be mentioned, or maybe not. The CDC in the US estimates flu deaths using a computer model and doctors think flu deaths are overstated. I imagine COVID flu deaths will, in the long run, be overstated too. But the CDC did not change their methodology to make COVID look bad — they always overstate flu deaths.

      The 1918 flu that killed my grandmother in her early 20s had an even worse counting methodology. Pretty much everyone who died from pneumonia was declared a flu victim and the totals were rounded to the nearest million.

      Once again it makes no sense to focus only on deaths and ignore all the Covid suffering … including the suffering from the forced partial lockdowns, unemployment and suicides. On the other hand, less driving means fewer car accidents!

      30

      • #
        Eddy Aruda

        Actually, the chances of dying are much less than 0.1%. Consider this, the US CDC claims that for every case they know of there are ten that go undiagnosed. The CDC also states the deaths caused by COVID19 are often exaggerated because they get more money if it is CCP COVID19. Let’s assume for the sake of the argument that the reporting of COVID19 deaths is correct. Instead of 6,000,000 cases in the US, there are 66,000,000 million cases. There are approximately 190,000 CCP virus deaths in the US. The overall mortality rate is approximately 0.02% Also, 6% of COVID19 deaths have no co-morbidity factor. 11,000 (6% of the people who died of COVID19 alone) divided by 66,000,000 (actual number of cases) is approximately 0.002%! and is the actual percentage of people dying of COVID19 alone. Yeah, you read that right! Of those that died from the virus alone, most of those were senior citizens. On average, the decedents that had co-morbidity averaged 2.7 other contributing factors. Senior citizens and those at risk due to preexisting conditions should be taking proper conditions. The rest of society should go back to living a normal life. The lockdowns are killing people and destroying the economy on a global scale.

        00

        • #
        • #

          Delighted to see you again Eddy. It’s been a long while!

          The numbers are not quite that nice. People with comorbities make up half the population in the US (Age, blood pressure, obesity, diabetes etc) so they still count. The morbidity burden includes all the long haulers who survive but need months to recover. Then about 1/3 ICU survivors suffer quite debilitating after effects. Plus we don’t know the risks yet of survivors developing other conditions like diabetes, nerve damage, early dementia. We won’t have accurate numbers on that for years. 78% of mild to moderate cases in one German study show signs of heart damage. Hopefully that won’t be long term. We don’t know.

          The IFR (Infection rate) is a guess at this point. But detailed studies of extremely well tested populations with two weeks follow up show that only about 45% of all infections are true asymptomatic infections. Even if it were twice that, we’re in guesstimation territory. We now also know that people carry some antibodies against common cold coronaviruses which may help, or not. But only 6% in Germany had T cells that reacted against the right half of the spike, which might be more effective. We just don’t know. But that mucks up the antibody surveys.

          We do know in well tested groups like Heathworkers in the US the Case Fatality Rate is 0.5%. These are healthy working age adults, though they have co-morbitities, and are probably exposed to high level doses of the virus making their situation worse.

          Australia is doing the best testing in the world. We are probably not missing anywhere near as many cases as other nations. Yet our hospitalization and ICU rates are not fun. Active cases one week ago in Vic were 2.500. Current hosptializations = 238. ICU = 22. So 10% need hospitalization. 1% need ICU. https://covidlive.com.au/vic Singapore has a wildly low mortality. Possibly because most infections were in young people, but also they may be treating with “unpermitted” drugs that we are crazy to avoid here.

          Forget mortality, the hospitalization burden is reason alone to slow the virus with major measures.

          00

  • #
    MP

    Could not figure out how to vote the post, so I gave it to Peta.
    You got a what when you want a when.

    30

  • #
    RickWill

    On the basis of the Iranian study on Bromhexine Hydrochloride, I bought a 200ml of ApoHealth cough mixture yesterday. It had a clear label stating Bromhexine Hydrochloride 8mg/5ml. Cost $9.99 from local chemist.

    I do not plan to use it unless I get a chesty cough so cannot advise on how it tastes. Maybe a slight anti-Covid advantage over sipping rum but probably not as soothing. The label states alcohol free so there is no incentive to try it unless there is a cough. I will continue with my nightly dose of alcohol and occasional sip of rum.

    150

  • #
    PeterPetrum

    ”Is it significant that the Chinese put on the most strenuous quarantine measures to date, stricter than any other country? Or is that just another coincidence?“

    Looks like Victoria is catching up. Just seen Tony Heller’s vidio of Police battering down the door of a guy who was reluctant to open it to police that wanted to arrest him for a Facebook post about a demonstration.

    270

    • #
      PeterS

      All that is missing is the Nazi uniform.

      250

    • #
      tonyb

      Peter

      Do you have a link? Presumably that is entirely separate to the arrest of the Pregnant woman for a similar ‘crime’.

      40

      • #
        Sceptical Sam

        tonyb,

        be my guest:

        https://www.citizenfreepress.com/breaking/australia-has-gone-mad/

        The socialist-nazis have taken over Victoria under the leadership of their fascist socialist dictator, Daniel Andrews.

        Victoria proves the adage: people in a democracy get the government they deserve.

        Of course, in case you missed it, the Andrews’ socialist dictatorship is only able to do what it’s doing because of the support of the …….

        Greens.

        Funny that. But true.

        240

        • #
          tonyb

          Sceptical Sam

          I assume that to be genuine? If so it was very disturbing. I wrote elsewhere on this thread that this was the greatest trashing of our Western freedoms ever and jo queried that.

          [SNIP. And Jo explained 3 times that No matter how awful Victoria seems now it is not "the greatest trashing" of western freedoms and to dismiss the camps, gulags and conscription in war, and confiscation of property rights as less important is trivializing great crimes and constitutional breaches. Please write accurately. -Jo ]

          I found those characters in the video very chilling. If that had happened in China 6 months ago how we would have howled. But now it seems to be acceptable because of a hysterical over reaction to what is a serious health threat but is not the bubonic plague.

          210

          • #
            RickWill

            The difference between Victoria and China is that in Victoria the videos make it to social media and stay there for anyone to see. In China individuals attempting to organise a protest get taken away never to be seen or heard of again. That approach also applies in Hong Kong now.

            Also you can bet those individuals arrested voted for Dan Andrew’s Labor or his Green cohorts. They got the woke government they voted for.

            The only motion that should get through the Victorian legislature in current times is a motion of no confidence in the Andrews Government. They are woke (and broke) without leadership. When the wokeness creates a mess they descend into chaos and authoritarianism.

            Dan Andrews has no understand of leadership. His sole approach is coercion. Every fibre of his being resists being open and honest. He has a collective of ‘yes men’ (or is it yes people) around him that are afraid to stand up to him and tell him the truth. Sadly the opposition in the State lack leadership as well so do not offer a beneficial alternative but Dan needs the boot.

            A well known Victorian identity, Sam Kekovich, had an open letter to Dan published today – he is straight with Dan about open and honest leadership. He mentions the four things that Dan does not talk about-
            The failure of hotel quarantine – causing second wave
            Red shirts saga – illegal funding of last election for Labor
            Branch stacking mess resulting in sacking of ministers
            Signing the State up to China’s belt and road program
            Dan places himself above scrutiny on any of these issues and simply gives them a flick when questioned on them.

            160

      • #
        • #
          OriginalSteve

          When you try and talk to people about the 94% info, many peoples eyes just glass over. But to be fair, I think the press has done its job of wearing people out so thier brains switch off.

          This however is the trap and a form of Mind Control….stick with me here….the idea is that people get so overwhelned and depressed they just sink into dispair. At its core this is just the abuse of a whole population.

          I woukd suggest that those of us still will clear mental faculties keep telling key people including politicians ( done my that alreafy today ) about the 94% data.

          The 94% info actually breaks Dangerous Dans steanglehold on peace loving Victorians,
          in fact it shatters the whole Corona Bogey Man lie.

          I would strongly suggest emailing your local federal and state members with a link to the CDC report along wuth a *brief* explanation why this matters. Once it becones mainstreaned i would expect the covid lie to collapse fast.

          61

    • #

      So many people have sacrificed to give the combination of hand washing, distnacing, isolation and lockdowns etc a chance to work. There is a lot of strong feeling that these would be protestors could undo that work and cause a lot of death and suffering as well as cause the whole thing to go on for longer. They do need to be stopped as did the BLM protests and the climate change protests and any other of the badly timed events.
      Surely they can find a way to be heard without undermining everyone’s efforts. Pay for sign writing or something.

      622

      • #
        OriginalSteve

        I think people have had enough of being shafted for no reason. Dan is finished.

        The con is that covid is dangerous….its clearly not if youre reasonably healthy…like any other flu.

        So if people catch the flu…so what? What the Elite are panicking about is people throwing thier chains off…it appears the highest levels of the Establishment seem to be all chummy…even the plod….

        313

        • #

          OriginalSteve
          “I think people have had enough of being shafted for no reason.”
          That is a perfectly normal view and position to take in this situation. In every outbreak and plague through history people have taken on the same outlook and the resulting actions. It is so predictable that it only needs to be encouraged by an outside negative influence to cause great harm. Are you being played like a pawn?
          “its clearly not if youre reasonably healthy”
          5% of people are reasonably healthy but what happens to even those people after a long time is still unknown.
          https://www.abc.net.au/health/thepulse/stories/2015/06/11/4253253.htm

          115

          • #
            Serp

            It’s unlikely anybody here would consider a link to the ABC leads to authoritative information Siliggy; one can only hope it follows the path foreshadowed by Tony Hall’s BBC replacement and replaces Ita with a person with the rectitude of Tim Davie who is determined to bring impartiality back.

            60

            • #

              Oh the old well used warmist alarmist tactic of avoiding the facts while attacking the messenger.
              Just for you Serp a completely alternate source and study. This time from Australia.

              “Half of us have a chronic condition
              Chronic conditions are generally long lasting, require ongoing management and have a substantial effect on individuals, their families and carers, and the health system.

              One in 2 (50%) Australians are estimated to have at least 1 of 8 selected common chronic conditions: cancer, cardiovascular disease, mental health conditions, arthritis, back pain and problems, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, asthma and diabetes. Nearly 1 in 4 (23%) Australians are estimated to have two or more of these conditions.

              Collectively, chronic conditions account for:

              87% of deaths”

              https://www.aihw.gov.au/reports/australias-health/australias-health-2018-in-brief/contents/how-healthy-are-we

              03

        • #
          John in Oz

          being shafted for no reason

          Which part of

          Covid is known to cause major blood clotting which damages organs. It has caused strokes, heart attacks, heart damage, low oxygen levels, and kidney damage, even in mild to moderate cases. There is still much we don’t know about it.

          is confusing to you?

          Plus, how does anyone know that they’re “reasonably healthy” enough to not have any of the side effects of Covid should they contract it?

          You do not have the right to possibly spread this virus to others just because you feel safe from it.

          417

          • #
            OriginalSteve

            So presumably yiu can quantify exactly what percentage of peopje who contract it actually get those morbidities?

            I believe normal flu and related viruses can cause similar issues so still not seeibg a reason to lockup a whole population….

            121

      • #
        RickWill

        Victoria is reaping the reward of voting for woke politicians. They are afraid to tell the truth. In fact, like this site, the m-word is not permitted to be written or uttered in public.

        Most of Australia is working hard to get out of all quarantine to have a normal Christmas. The vast majority of Australians are aware that large family gatherings in December will need to be mindful of spreading Covid. There would be some caution about exposing aged parents to the risk if still present in the community at any level. If you are coughing phlegm you are unlikely to visit a parent at their aged care facility.

        Go back to late May and there were many Eid al-Fitr gatherings well beyond the permitted number of 10 people. In fact, I have knowledge that there were revolving door with frequent coming and goings that resulted in 50 or so people through the same residence in an evening.

        So woke public service avoids using military presence to control hotel quarantine and places priority on hiring non-english speaking new Australians to secure those Covid infested returning travellers.

        The only linkage you need to know is that many of those new Australians working in security are of the m-faith.

        You can put the piture together to appreciate why the Victorian second wave hit with such ferocity and got so quickly out of control.

        Also Victoria has a contract tracing system that was running short of the stone being used for communications. That occurred when cases being traced exceeded 50.

        Two other factors to consider now (a) aged care homes are far more switched on about keeping the virus out of their facilities – the wealthy owners are no longer in control trying to maximise their profit by penny pinching on things like PPE, cleaning, hygiene and food services (b) a large proportion of nursing staff in Melbourne have contracted the virus, recovered and are now unlikely sources of infection.

        The UK has stabilised around 1000 recorded cases per day but the death toll is less than Victoria that peaked at 750 cases per day. I figure UK has learnt to keep it away from those with high risk. Likewise Sweden is still recording 200+ cases per day but daily deaths are now rarely above single digits. Germany has recorded over 1000 cases a day throughout August but daily deaths are single digits; maybe a slight uptick to double digits now.

        The simple message should be – give the public the information they need to manage their own circumstances while taking care to protect others. If I had Covid and was still lucid, I would be doing everything I could to personally notify my close contacts and those places I had visited. I would also like to know the source. I would not be going anywhere if I had symptoms other than to a testing spot.

        The fact that Victoria has the current woke Labor government and a strong leaning to woker Greens is proof the place is brain challenged but there is now much greater awareness of the risks of spreading Covid. Victoria has probably achieved a stage where sense will prevail over woke if people are allowed out. Also mask are gradually becoming woke because Trump resisted them.

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        Hasbeen

        Well they have certainly found a way to be heard, thanks to the thuggery of the Victorian police force, doing the bidding of their ratbag leader. They have been heard loud & clear, world wide.

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    RickWill

    People change their behavior in reaction to this new threat as they learn more about it, which is constantly changing all our statistics.

    I have a friend living in Texas, USA who has not been off his property this year. His wife does their shopping. He is not yet 60yo but he was diagnosed with diabetes last year and reduced weight to improve his general health. He is months past his annual check-up but considers it just too risky to go to a clinic right now. He has worked from home for years now but has been a recluse in 2020.

    Interesting he was a Trump supporter in 2016 but the trade sanctions with China damaged his business that had worked well for more than a decade whereby he holds a controlling interest in a small factory in China that produces high end goods that he designs for the computer industry in the USA.

    He also considers Trump has not provided good leadership during the Covid response; very much a mixed message. On the other hand he would have great difficulty voting for a Democrat – that is his quandary that he may share with many living in the US.

    The US elections are shaping up to hold a great deal of interest for most observers. I have noted a slight shift in some of the TV coverage in Australia. ABC is still strongly anti-Trump but Channel 7 have shown some favourable aspects of Trump and negatives of democrats – like Pelosi hair cut and Biden forgetting names of people important to his cause.

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      Broadie

      Solved!
      Shift his factory to Pennsylvania. Plug and Play plus containerised freight means business has the upper hand in demanding the best deal from competing Nation States.
      We should do the same here in Australia and set our States free to compete. First thing to do is to throw your mobile phone in the ocean so you are free from the Swamp. Lose your phone and save your front door!

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    Maptram

    Off topic but I just noticed this article in Yahoo News.

    https://au.yahoo.com/news/story-behind-disturbing-photo-of-london-corpses-protest-133337464.html

    A couple of sentences from the article

    “Young people aged from six to 20 also wrote letters to submit to the government about the impacts of climate change.

    “I am scared and I’m sure you are too, I don’t want to live in a world where the Earth gets hotter every year. I don’t want to live in a world where the seas rise every year, causing natural disasters to appear more frequently,” Anay, aged nine, wrote.

    “How will we get enough oxygen without the trees? We could be at a tipping point and there will be nothing we can do. What will happen then?”

    Obviously nine year olds are not taught that trees use carbon dioxide to grow and produce oxygen in the process. So the other question is how will the trees grow without carbon dioxide?

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    TIP

    is this a “straw man” argument?

    The headline – “How to ignore 94% of Covid deaths?”

    I have never seem/heard anyone suggest to do so.

    The balanced view will be that at least 6% died of covid but less than the total reported figure of 170,000+ (when & where ever this stops).

    How much lower than the 170,000 is the question.

    “It sounds ridiculous. But it’s even possible that people who died of road trauma might not have if they weren’t infected. How many? Who knows.”

    The argument covid deaths may be MUCH higher than reported while at the same time making any excuse to keep the reported figure intact comes across as disingenuous.

    Did somebody who tested positive for covid19 and died of car accident in which they werent driving…..die OF covid?

    Did somebody who tested positive for covid19 and died of accidental injury…..die OF covid?

    Did somebody who tested positive for covid19 and died of deliberate injury…..die OF covid?

    Did somebody who tested positive for covid19 and died of poisoning…..die OF covid?

    Did somebody who tested positive for covid19 and died of self inflicted injury…..die OF covid? (possibly)

    It goes on and on..

    The answer will be somewhere above 6% (about 10,000) but well below total reported numbers.

    [CDC estimates that influenza has resulted in between 12,000 – 61,000 deaths annually since 2010.]

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      TedM

      Sounds like a dedicated contrarian.

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        Peter C

        Actually it seems like a logical argument to me.

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      • #

        TIP: “balanced according to who”?
        ONE HAND

        We know some people who tested positive will be listed as having died of covid who did not, artificially inflating the tally. We know that some people with heart attacks would have lived if they got treatment or ambulances in time. We know some people with covid would have died anyway or soon after. But the CDC has a long set of guidelines, and in those at least, doctors are explicitly supposed to try to be accurate, not just list every covid patient, though we know some will. https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvss/vsrg/vsrg03-508.pdf

        OTHER HAND
        1. we know a lot more people had covid than were tested in the US. How much would the US have to increase testing to get the positivity rate down to the Australian level? From 10% down to 1%. There are a lot of unidentified cases in the US. I won’t guess except to say the number is in the millions.
        2. We know asymptomatic people and mild cases show damage to hearts and lungs, and an increase in blood clotting, which would be expected to lead to some strokes and heart attacks in high risk people.
        3. We also know that mortality rates fell or stayed the same in cities with lockdowns but not large outbreaks of Covid — probably due to reduced car accidents, reduced influenza and all respiratory infectious diseases. fewer work accidents. etc etc.
        4. We know in cities with large outbreaks of Covid there are also large excess deaths 20 – 50% above and beyond the both the normal death toll and above the covid tally at the same time. Some are due to covid, and some are due to fear and restrictions or overwhelmed hospitals. How much? Hard to say.

        Consider the size of the mistaken overestimates and underestimates — the largest numbers are on the underestimate side and occurred in places all around the world, regardless of their different doctor/hospital dollar incentives, political rulers, treatment regimes, and types of lockdowns.
        __________________________

        As for the original claims. Google “6% CDC died covid” and check the results. They are horribly biased as is Evil Googles way. They show page after page debunking the 6% death statistic. Obviously Google has filtered out all the pages that these are replying too, but there are a lot of them. I profoundly disagree with Googles silencing (and Twitter’s).

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          OriginalSteve

          Well there is hope.

          Senator McDonald from QLD appears to have mentioned the CDC report.

          The implication is “wrong data = wrong public health policy”

          https://www.skynews.com.au/details/_6187797894001

          Good stuff…

          Maybe if people are so inclined, email all senators to appraise them of the same info. The fact it relates to publuc health policy is the elephant in the room pollies cant ignore….

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          Broadie

          At least the CDC has now found the means by which the Influenza figures can now rise from the dead, so to speak. Influenza reporting largely disappeared in Week 11 in the midst of a major epidemic. With the co-morbidity of 2.6 other factors out of the way and the deaths where COVID19 was listed as the cause, that leaves the flu as the major probable cause of mortality in these figures.

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          Damon

          Changed your tune bit, haven’t you? Scraping the bottom of the barrel for long-term effects is a bit different from “we must lock-down or we’re all gonna die’.

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        Nezysquared

        Isn’t that the point of this website?

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    • #

      The “CDC” does not control world data. Other countries do it their own ways. There are distinct patterns in the data that give a good clue to its quality. I have looked into a few of them and some patterns may be a bit controversial so i will just point to two easy ones. In many of the “New cases” and “daily death” charts you can see a weekly cycle.
      There are also Feigenbaum type chaotic bifurcations. These show an amplitude and period relationship to growth rate. In short the U.S. data does not look too different to world data and what is known to happen.
      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ETrYE4MdoLQ&t=735s

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        Broadie

        And New York Data is similar to other States.
        Just lookin at the Feigenbaum type chaotic bifurcations that is.

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      • #

        Ah Broadie. Have you figured out why your predictions for Texas went almost exactly wrong yet?
        Take a look at the obvious weekly cycle in the daily deaths chart under the table here and see how obviously out of place July 30 is in the massive rise you predicted would not happen.
        Can’t wait to see what names you call me this time.

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        • #
          Broadie

          From memory Siliggy, you make the predictions. From day one on this topic I have attempted to find data that eliminates the artifacts of the hysteria.

          These show an amplitude and period relationship to growth rate. In short the U.S. data does not look too different to world data and what is known to happen

          I make a simple point with regards to your conclusion. The point being the US figures have something like the New York area affecting the data set. New York appeared to have mortality %300 larger than expected for the period of the COVID19 epidemic. This is %300 of a large population and was not reflected in other regions. The question is what happened in New York? Why didn’t the same phenomena occur in Hanoi or Manila?
          I would love to be able to make the kind of predictions as you are inclined to do when you pull out your Feigenbaum. Unfortunately there wasn’t a directive to place COVID19 on death certificates or even Influenza in recent years. For some strange reason many States and Countries appear to have stopped reporting and updating their Influenza Like Illness reports and 2019/20 yearly statistics have just plain old disappeared.
          Meanwhile back in the Virology department of Washington State despite a substantial increase in testing, Covid19 remains at about %4 of those presenting with Flu like symptoms.

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            Can’t make head nor tail of what you are saying Broadie. Can we start by getting a date for your prediction: “New York appeared to have mortality %300 larger than expected for the period of the COVID19 epidemic.”
            When are you predicting the “epidemic” will end there?
            893 daily new cases just reported. This seems to be a continuation of an increase in daily infections that began around August 24.

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      ImranCan

      TIP – great observations. I was going to make the similar points to Jo under the banner that she was ‘clutching at straws’. Like you I am unclear about the point of the article.

      It’s not whether 94% or 95% of Covid deaths are people who have other serious co-morbidities – thats just not relevant. You just don’t need to consider it. We only need to see the reported actual death count, now somewhere near 880k globally. It s still rising but the daily incremental deaths are now falling significantly and there is nowhere in the world left for infections to cause that trend to reverse.

      If we look at the numbers in context, 880k (or whatever it may end up at … 1mln of maybe 1.1 or 1.2) – these are NOT big numbers. The death toll from Covid19 (the 100% death toll) is very comparable to lots of other diseases we face every day, eg. AIDS, Malaria, TB. Even influenza which, according to the WHO, has an annual range of 290-650k every year. And tiny compared to heart disease and cancers. And if we compare COVID19 to previous other well known respiratory epidemics, that kind of death toll PER CAPITA, the HK flu of ’68 and the Asian flu of ’57 were 10x more deadly. And Spanish flu was 500x more deadly.

      What is different this time is our societal response to this disease. Never before have we reacted in the way we have done. Never before have we locked up healthy society and wreaked so much economic destruction. Very galling given the utterly vanilla nature of Covid as a ‘killer epidemic’. The day of reckoning is coming. By the end of this month, global deaths will be down 20% from the August peak and nowhere in the world (even India) will be in exponential growth. Pretty much everywhere is or will be in decline. If you want to know why Donald Trump will be re-elected, just look at the US daily deaths curve. It will be around 500 and going down. This cannot be hidden, and everyone will start demanding answers as to why they have been locked up and impoverished. How can Joe Biden survive the questions about what Democrat run states have done ? How long do you think Dan Andrews and Jacinda Aherne can survive ?

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        Lucky

        ImranCan- I agree with all your points but not the inference of the question – how long…?

        They can survive indefinitely as voters are not influenced by data, only by scares.
        The way to overcome a scare is with another opposite scare (Ashby’s Law of Requisite Variety).
        Inform the voters about loss of income, jobs, savings, the curfews, and the chance of being handcuffed behind your back and having your front door broken down because of a Twtr post.

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      Lucky

      Good post thanks TIP but the answer to your question is on the CDC site, if my eyesight is accurate:

      Total deaths in period, about 1,540,000
      Out of the total 6%, 9,210, died having the virus with no other condition.
      15%, 23,025, died having various conditions including the virus. (eg. motor cycle accident with victim testing positive)

      (15% 23,025 from memory)
      As you say, rather different from ~ 187,000.

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    tonyb

    Jo

    Sorry, but I am a bit bemused as to the point you are making about diabetes. You say;

    “In a world where only 6% of the US Covid death tally are truly due to Covid, you can protect yourself from Covid by getting fat, not getting tested and getting diabetes. I don’t think so.”

    This from the Lancet

    “Methods

    We did a whole-population study assessing risks of in-hospital death with COVID-19 between March 1 and May 11, 2020. We included all individuals registered with a general practice in England who were alive on Feb 16, 2020. We used multivariable logistic regression to examine the effect of diabetes status, by type, on in-hospital death with COVID-19, adjusting for demographic factors and cardiovascular comorbidities. Because of the absence of data on total numbers of people infected with COVID-19 during the observation period, we calculated mortality rates for the population as a whole, rather than the population who were infected.

    Findings

    Of the 61 414 470 individuals who were alive and registered with a general practice on Feb 16, 2020, 263 830 (0·4%) had a recorded diagnosis of type 1 diabetes, 2 864 670 (4·7%) had a diagnosis of type 2 diabetes, 41 750 (0·1%) had other types of diabetes, and 58 244 220 (94·8%) had no diabetes. 23 698 in-hospital COVID-19-related deaths occurred during the study period. A third occurred in people with diabetes: 7434 (31·4%) in people with type 2 diabetes, 364 (1·5%) in those with type 1 diabetes, and 69 (0·3%) in people with other types of diabetes. Unadjusted mortality rates per 100 000 people over the 72-day period were 27 (95% CI 27–28) for those without diabetes, 138 (124–153) for those with type 1 diabetes, and 260 (254–265) for those with type 2 diabetes. Adjusted for age, sex, deprivation, ethnicity, and geographical region, compared with people without diabetes, the odds ratios (ORs) for in-hospital COVID-19-related death were 3·51 (95% CI 3·16–3·90) in people with type 1 diabetes and 2·03 (1·97–2·09) in people with type 2 diabetes. These effects were attenuated to ORs of 2·86 (2·58–3·18) for type 1 diabetes and 1·80 (1·75–1·86) for type 2 diabetes when also adjusted for previous hospital admissions with coronary heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, or heart failure.

    Interpretation

    The results of this nationwide analysis in England show that type 1 and type 2 diabetes were both independently associated with a significant increased odds of in-hospital death with COVID-19″

    Clearly if you have diabetes you have a significantly higher possibility of dying with or of Covid. You also have a significantly greater chance of dying of you are overweight. So the message is presumably keep your weight down. Unfortunately the UK is a fat nation and many deaths will be associated with that condition not helped by the Govt funded ‘Eat out to help out’ whereby people got paid for stuffing their faces full of food in a restaurant).

    However that this pandemic was made much worse than it need be by the inexcusable situation with care homes comes in a figure from the US, which said that 0.6% of the population were in care homes but accounted for 42% of deaths.

    I have just dome a rough calculation for the UK and the figures seem similar. This was not only caused by decanting vulnerable elderly people from hospital into care homes to free up beds, but that care workers often work in more than one care home . They are often young and unwittingly spread the virus.

    A substantial percentage of people who went into hospital for something else then caught covid.

    As you saw, 5000 people were removed from the UK lists who died of something else after a 28 day cut off. Many more died of catching the infection inside the hospital.

    Reports are coming out that staying indoors only spreads the virus so we can only guess at the moment as to how many died from being locked down allowing the virus to circulate inside small tightly sealed homes.

    The virus arrived at an unfortunate time in the UK, after a long sunless winter, so Vitamin D levels were depleted then ironically as the sun came out people were prevented from soaking it up.

    The death toil from covid was far far higher than it needed to be due to this web of circumstances.

    AS you have probably read the Govt and media are still panicking about the virus even though flu deaths have greatly exceeded covid deaths for some 9 weeks.

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      TedM

      I think you are missing the satire Tony.

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      tonyb

      ted

      I am using facts to make the point rather than satire. This has been the greatest trashing of our freedoms and our economy in our history and may destroy the west.

      It should not have been done for something that is not remotely the bubonic plague and never was, even with hindsight

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        Kalm Keith

        Exactement!

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      • #

        Tonyb, yes, as TedM says. Satire.

        As for “shoulds” — we live in a democracy and the decisions are a balancing act of health, risk and economic factors. You are always free to explain why people are making the wrong decision and persuade them. At the moment, the voters don’t seem happy with the high death rates in the 70+ and 80+ categories, nor the risk to healthworkers (0.5% CFR), nor the morbidity or long term disability. Even young voters apparently value health and lives of others over costs and short term freedom.

        This is not the bubonic plague by any means, but then life is worth a lot more now than it was in 1300AD. The grinding days of servitude, loss of one in four children, and hard labor have been replaced with 1 – 3 decades of cheap trips to Phuket and cruise ship holidays. Riches even Kings did not enjoy for most of human civilization.

        Perhaps you are calm and wise, and they over-anxious. Or perhaps they value their health and older relations more than you do?

        Perhaps in the wealthiest nations on Earth being at 90% of normal GDP is not apocalyptic for most people? I grant that for a few with decades of livelihood at risk or destroyed, it may well feel like it, and we should fix that and compensate those who paid a terrible price. The burden has not been shared fairly.

        I would fight to share the cost more fairly.

        But I don’t see why I would work to do something that causes illness and death and unknown long term problems and which most voters don’t want, even if I myself are in a low risk category.

        PS: Accurate language (OK, barring satire) please. I suspect those in the Gulags and camps of WWII might disagree that this is the “greatest” trashing of freedom in history… so too might all the men who were conscripted to fight to their possible deaths to keep the rest us safe.

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          OriginalSteve

          Crikey Jo…welcome to the red pill zone… :-)

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          tonyb

          Jo

          Voters have no idea of the real death rate do they? They are astonished to learn that in the UK it is around 640,000 a year. Of that some 140,000 are said to be ‘preventable’.

          Full fact analysed a recent survey here

          https://fullfact.org/health/why-poll-gives-misleading-view-how-many-people-public-think-covid-19-has-killed/

          The over estimation of the covid death rate was 10 fold with a significant proportion overestimating by 100 times. That colours voters opinions but it has been fed by govt and media making people very fearful and hysterical about risks.

          I do not see what those in prison camps during a war have to do with the general public during a time of peace and who are grappling with a pandemic many orders of magnitude less serious than the plague, for which the restrictions might have been appropriate.

          Very many more lives could have been saved by some simple actions around care homes and hospitals . You do not lockdown the fit and healthy but those who are vulnerable and those who are sick. You practice social distancing hand washing and avoid crowds.

          You do not lock healthy people up in small houses and forbid them to get some fresh air. The west has been very wounded perhaps mortally. Our enemies will be made stronger

          The money for health budgets, research, the police, defence, social benefits will all have to be scaled back. Businesses have been bankrupted education and cultural life and social life all hugely traduced. Future deaths from other ailments as our obsession with covid developed will be far more than from Covid. Smaller but important ailments from hip operations to cataracts to dentistry have been side lined

          Mental health issues have been huge. Personal finances ruined. Jobs have disappeared our police have become over powerful fed by the delusions of politicians.

          WE have reacted hysterically to all this rather than considered things more rationally. Its time we stopped

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            Who’s hysterical? Could be the one saying: “This has been the greatest trashing of our freedoms and our economy in our history and may destroy the west.”

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            • #
              tonyb

              No jo, it has demonstrably been the greatest trashing of our freedoms we have known. Is it normal for Victoria police to arrest a pregnant woman for organising a protest? Or to pepper spray someone for not wearing a mask on a train? Or to accrue powers that verge on dictatorship as both our govts have done? To institute house arrest? To tell people that they must wear masks, how much they can exercise, or how often they can go to the shops etc? Is that not ‘more trashing of our freedoms’ than any time in modern recorded history?

              Britain has good figures for its economy back to the 1640′s and less reliable figures back to the 1300′s. The current drop in GDP is without precedent, not only that but it is treble anything seen before. Is that not trashing the economy?

              As for ‘may destroy the west’ here is an article about Nato

              https://www.fpri.org/article/2020/03/the-effect-of-covid-19-on-the-nato-alliance/

              Defence spending is likely to take a huge nosedive. Alliances will fracture as everyone tries to repair their economy. Diplomacy will have the knowledge that less money is available and we handled things badly when it comes to talking to those countries we want to have relations with. We will be downgraded in their eyes.

              In the meantime China will emerge stronger. I did say ‘may,’ we can only hope the West pulls together which includes Australia, which is being sucked into the Chinese belt and road and debt and trade trap.

              So the hysteria is not coming from me but govts and the media, who are infecting the populace, many of whom are too scared to get on a train, go to the shops, travel or go to work. I recognise that this is not the bubonic plague and we wildly over reacted, even with the benefit of hindsight.

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              • #

                Many big words and big declarations but no data.

                Like I said, history still includes the 1940s.

                Civilization is under threat from many angles and has been for years — but inaccurate hyperbole and against the wrong target won’t help anyone.

                So get serious. Start with the discipline to write accurately.

                I’ve rarely said anything good about the Victorian government. Don’t blame me for their incompetence. Keep calm and get focused. The Australian government has committed far more scandalous and damaging actions than this weeks news and I have reported on those for 12 long years. Peter Spencer lost his farm without a cent in compensation as a carbon soak to meet Australian’s futile Kyoto agreement, and his family moved to Sweden so his wife could work (where she had qualifications) while he took on the Commonwealth by himself alone in the Federal Court. Ten years of his life in a lonely war on behalf of all the farmers who had their land stolen through the native vegetation acts of 20 years ago.

                The Thompsons lost their life savings in WA after investing everything they had in a farm and being targeted for being skeptics while the EPA added 33 impossible conditions to their license to operate and bled them dry . They broke no law, complied with every request, but lost it all, and then we lost the whole family of six back to the US after battling for years. Maxwell Scultz went to jail (twice) for clearing trees in a firebreak on his own property. Where was the Australian constitution?

                Australian industry has been destroyed through carbon regulation. Our cheap grid is now one of the most expensive. Our electricity network will take years to repair, even if we started now, and we are not even admitting there’s a problem yet.

                The virus is bad, but it didn’t have to be this bad, and the economic damage doesn’t have to last that long. We can bounce back much faster from this than the 30 year carbon war. WA is already bouncing. This is one more hurdle but with probably a lot shorter timeframe.

                And if we don’t like lockdowns or impositions, then we get serious and study the science. Therein lies the answers. Read what the ICU doctors are telling all the leaders of the free world. Then you might be more persuasive and able to get what you want. Or you might learn why most of the voters disagree with you.

                Dictators, by the way, are generally not the ones trying to do what the voters want.

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                Jo

                On the contrary I quoted extensively from the lancet and links to two respectable sources

                I quoted accurate figures on the documented nosedive in the economy and if you can find any more severe restrictions on personal freedoms than the current ones then you need to cite them. How is that ‘no data? ‘

                Churchill cited the development of these freedoms in his Book series ‘ history of the English speaking peoples’

                time after time we are told that this or that event is the first time it has not been permitted, like VE day not being commemorated and for the first time since the 8th century we were not allowed to celebrate Easter in a church. I can find no precedent from being prevented from meeting with other people, even your own family if they were not already living with you.

                You do not refute the examples I gave where the state has grossly exceeded its demmocratic mandate. So I refute your fourth paragraph and invite you to point to hyperbole.

                Most of the rest of your post is not related to this discussion. I do appreciate and fully acknowledge the excellent work you have done in many fields over the years and long may you continue to do so, but those are not related to the issues we are discussing here, which is over reach by the state relating to the pandemic

                Judging by your penultimate paragraph you approve of the impositions made. That is your perogative but What do our leaders have to do before you believe they have overstepped the mark in the circumstances we find ourselves?

                As we both agree this is not the bubonic plague. Consequently i believe govts have over reacted And have cited examples.

                The implications of that will live with us for a generation.

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                Kalm Keith

                Hi Jo,

                Up above you say;

                ” we live in a democracy and the decisions are a balancing act of health, risk and economic factors “.

                Sadly the recent weeks show that our democracy is No More.

                The outline of the land confiscation by representatives of our “democracy” is a reminder of the evil that has taken over our “Democracy”.

                It’s also a reminder of how long I have been reading your blog.

                If we had a democracy that was working correctly we would not have seen the land confiscation that you remind us of nor the other undemocratic impositions that have been inflicted on our country for the last forty years.

                The shooting tragedy more recently is a reminder that people are under pressure from evil that’s embedded firmly in our Governments.

                The real tragedy was for the shooter, defending his life’s work against a government employed eco warrior.

                Democracy? Don’t think so.

                And so, to the present where we have the same government structure managing the CV19 response for the nation.

                A complete and total shambles from a massively overfunded “Public Service Health Department” and their disinterested Managers in the form of our massively over rewarded Elected Representatives.

                A better “response” to CV19 has been outlined here by several writers who demonstrate an appreciation of the medical imperatives at work. All for free.

                We once had one of the world’s greatest organizations in the CSIRO.

                Post world war two, we had perhaps, the best free, education system in the world: ten or twelve years of thorough, basic education.

                We once had functional basic industry and tertiary industry adding value.

                Now we live with the memories of what was and what could have been and live in a society that’s been degraded by forty years of political self interest and “free money”.

                Any nation that allows seven and a half tons of gold to be sent North to the Great Big Barrier Reef Foundation needs to bend over, tighten the shoelaces;

                And Go Out and Kick Somebody.

                The great tragedy is in the number of people who cannot or will not “see” the devastation inflicted on a trusting populace.

                The current government action was flawed, disinterested from the start and has brought National Mental Health into dangerous territory.

                We remember when this slide started and pay tribute to all Tirath Khemlanis, past, present and future.

                So much for Democracy.

                KK

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                OriginalSteve

                Jo has to strike a fine balance on this site, and I get that. We all have to have thick hides and just push on. :-)

                Interestingly, I think as the older generation we have more grit than the younger ones, so we carry a big responsibility to demonstrare our unwiliingness to fold and stare down the new n*zism and defeat it.

                Anything less is selling out future generations……

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                TonyB. you are backing yourself in a corner. Just chill OK? Stop digging.

                Self evidently, the only figures in this sub-thread you have quoted are 640,000 and 140,000 which are not related to Covid. So I’ll stand by “no data”. If there is data in links, or past comments, you’ll need to find it. Forgive me if I can’t remember every data point listed by everyone in the 660,000 comments here.

                Was it really more important to repeat the hyperbole, and insults but not the numbers? Doesn’t make for a constructive scientific discussion does it?

                I’ve already refuted the examples and quoted the hyperbole in detail. What can I say? Nazi death camps and Soviet gulags and mass conscription are obviously, undeniably, a greater loss of democratic freedom “in history” (your term).

                Meanwhile, what we do today has been done before. “Social distancing”, hard borders and quarantine of whole boats, were used against the 1918 flu. Typhoid Mary was locked up for nearly 30 years. She was healthy.

                I am not the enemy. Please skip the hyperbole and write accurately.

                Does the current situation upset you to the point where goodwill and a calm discussion are not possible? Perhaps that’s what we should discuss? If you’ve lost money, friends, freedom we might get a more productive conversation? You’ll find me very sympathetic.

                But don’t assume I approve all or anything other than what I list specifically. Just because I can easily describe worse situations doesn’t mean I approve of current ones. I’m just asking for a calm, accurate perspective.

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                tonyb

                o

                “Was it really more important to repeat the hyperbole, and insults but not the numbers? Doesn’t make for a constructive scientific discussion does it?”

                I have quoted a number of figures over a number of threads including this one as have other people. I have not insulted you. If you believe that , please give an example.

                As for backing myself into a corner it is evidently one where a lot of your friends on this thread are also backed. But it is not a corner at all is it?. It is a view that is in the open and one which can be defended by figures and where it is reasonable to ask you how far we should go to supress what both of us agree is not the bubonic plague.

                I said this

                “Judging by your penultimate paragraph you approve of the impositions made. That is your prerogative but What do our leaders have to do before you believe they have overstepped the mark in the circumstances we find ourselves?”

                Obviously you do not approve of everything but you seem to approve of them “in the round.”

                How far does a democratic body have to go before its too far? I believe we have exceeded that point in the circumstances we find ourselves in PEACETIME. No one is talking of wars or gulags. Do you believe we have exceeded that point yet?

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                Tony,

                Good. We’re getting somewhere. We agree wars are worse than pandemics. Home quarantine is bad but not a gulag. These quarantine measures have been done before.

                Since this a science discussion, lets also agree that when one party calls everyone who disagrees “hysterical” it might feel *hugely satisfying* but it isn’t accurate, or constructive?

                Hysteria (Definition)
                1. a psychoneurotic disorder characterized by violent emotional outbreaks, disturbances of sensory and motor functions, and various abnormal effects due to autosuggestion.

                As for Democratic mandates, I believe that in Australia every leader who has imposed restrictions to slow the virus is predicted to win reelection at the moment. Those who succeeded the most are the most popular. That doesn’t mean I’d vote for them, but isn’t that the point of democracy?

                You are always free to persuade them.

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                Jo

                Hold on there. The media and govt are self evidently hysterical or ‘ over the top’ i don’t know what other term you can use for the incessant day in day out obsession and such things as the Victoria police arresting that pregnant woman or battering that door down and numerous other examples because they have vastly over reacted.

                You apoear to be saying That it could be worse, that the general public could be in a gulag and the fact they are not shows its not so bad after all. I don’t believe you mean that and have no idea why you would want to introduce gulgags as any sort of point of comparison.

                I maintain that the general public in a western democracy have never had their freedoms so removed. I cited various instances such as Curfews, not being allowed to meet up even wth members of your family, churches, VE day. for the first time we weren’t allowed to celebrate, as far as Easter is concerned in a church for the first time 1200 years.

                We weren’t talking about soldiers or political prisoners in gulags were we, those are extreme examples we are talking about the greatest removal of freedoms from a democracy that we can trace.

                I asked you what the govt would have to do that you believe would be over the top. I think they have way exceeded it already but as you seem to disagree what is your tipping point?

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                Kalm Keith

                Tony, that’s good perspective

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                Tony,to recap: you made hyperbolic inaccurate statements with extreme language, forgetting seminal moments in history (like Gulags). I merely pointed it out. AFter three iterations, you finally agreed that I was right and improved your choice of words, begrudgingly.

                Please stop wasting our time paraphrasing me repeatedly implying I am saying something I didn’t. The point of this post is not for me to list the top one thousand infractions of democracy in order.

                The post is about covid mortality. Did you read it? Could you please stick to the topic?

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                Jo

                You say ‘ since this is. A science discussion’ and have referenced science several times when you have commented on my writing

                But it’s not is it? As you say in your very first sentence ‘ it’s a political tool’ so this is actually as much a political discussion as a Science one.

                I have never seen your version of ‘hysteria’ before. This is very much more the terminology I meant under the definition of ‘hysteria’

                ‘synonyms: frenzy, wildness, feverishness, irrationality, hysterics, loss of control, panic, panic attack, alarm, outburst/fit of agitation, loss of reason, fit of madness, neurosis, delirium, derangement, mania, distress, mental distress, the screaming abdabs/habdabs’

                Yes, Irrationality, panic, alarm, agitation, distress, loss of reason etc, .surely these are all perfectly fair words to describe the torrent of words that have accompanied the pandemic. So I have not insulted anyone in using these terms.

                We are not gong to agree on how far a govt is entitled to go in combatting a public health issue so shall we leave it For now.? I am sure we have better things to do on Sunday.

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                Jo

                Sorry, but Your post was not there when I composed mine a few minutes ago

                I certainly dd not agree that you were right after three iterations. My words were not hyperbolic nor was any extreme language used . The facts are as I stated them and I gave facts figures and links to support them

                How can you equate political gulags with locking down the general public
                over a public health issue. There is no analogy whatsoever

                The subject is surely about covid mortality and the data being used as a political tool? However it’s your blog and if you say that’s the abject then that’s the subject.

                I think it best to leave it

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                There has grown a political correctness on the right that seeks to stop scientific discussion by using many of the same techniques as the left:

                1. Hyperbole
                2. name-calling
                2. Righteous indignation
                3. Exaggeration
                4. Repetition.

                Hyperbole:

                greatest trashing of freedoms in history
                may destroy the west
                the media are infecting the populace
                wildly overreacted
                the west has been wounded perhaps mortally
                Bubonic Plague

                Calling everyone who doesn’t agree “Hysterical” is just another form of namecalling, like “denier”.

                PS: Neither of us is equating gulag to quarantine.

                I am saying gulags were worse.
                You are saying that home quarantine is worse. (Surely that’s not what you mean?)

                At one point the words “in PEACETIME” were yelled to acknowledge I had a point, but now you deny even that.

                See how unproductive this conversation is? That you may have put in a few useful links or written some numbers somewhere does not make the conversation scientific when as far as I can see, we cannot even agree on something as banal as the definition of the words we use, and that “the greatest trashing of freedoms in history” was in WWII.

                You are far from the only one Tony. Forgive me, I don’t mean to single you out — I just reached my limit with some using the thread as a therapy session (which is perhaps a bit mean of me?). There are obviously quite a few who just want to blow off steam at what is a very frustrating, costly, bad situation.

                And I acknowledge that the situation for most people here is far worse than for me in so many ways. The UK, Victoria, parts of the US. I feel for you. It’s easy for me to be relaxed when I live — luckily — in the best place on earth where there is no virus and the economy is raging back to life and we enjoy all the freedoms that so many people don’t have.

                I just wish more people could share our good fortune.

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    John Watt

    Who pontificated that these covid victims must die before their time?
    Who knows how many of those who have “recovered” from covid will suffer shorter lives due to covid triggered lung/kidney/blood disorders.
    Conspiracy enthusiasts may say King Ping of Beijing carefully chose and managed a virus that would inflict maximum harm on Trump’s USA. Don’t worry about impact on the rest of the planet…CCP’s typical approach pays no heed to megadeaths, even of its own, in order to achieve an objective.

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    PeterS

    Yes death data has become a political tool; by politicians (obviously).

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    Crakar24

    You can add sore nuts to the list Jo. Will be interesting to see if fertility rates drop in the next few years

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    steve

    You are obviously correct that covid kills with help from other conditions. However, my understanding is that if you die of ANYTHING and the autopsy shows a positive for covid that you go into the stats.
    In other words, I could die in a car accident and if I test positive posthumously, I am going into the stats. This is not a covid death.
    For a virus that kills a very low percentage of positive tests (and that is undesirable) we put 100% of posthumous positive testing deaths into the stats.

    If I am wrong, then I apologise but that is how I read the chief health guy’s comments.

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    UK-Weather Lass

    Writing from the UK, in an area of London where we have a slightly more severe case to death rate than our worse ordinary ‘flu season since 2000, figures obtained by extrapolation (since ordinary ‘flu season have not carried the loaded political messaging that has accompanied SARS-CoV-2) I have watched this ‘event” in suspended disbelief. I have been told by people that ‘none of us know who is infected’ as a reason for lockdown and I respond with ‘we never know who is infected unless and until they get sick and we haven’t had a lockdown ever in the past’.

    At the start we were protecting our health workers from being inundated and yet we had Nightingale Hospitals that were literally never used. Instead we locked down the healthy in a meaningless attempt to stop a spread which is dictated by the effectiveness of the virus not the effectiveness of the containment. At that time it was the virulence and destructiveness of the virus that made headlines in order to needle our consciences to obey the command to stay indoors. Now the whole virus severity message is being played down because we want you back at work and so huge numbers of diseased patients and deaths are no longer the political message. We no longer want you to stay indoors is the message, ‘we want you back at work and school’ etc observing social distancing and wearing masks blah, blah. Perhaps that is where we should have been all along, taking our chances as we mostly always do, and avoiding those who don’t look so well.

    But why oh why didn’t we use the Nightingale Hospitals from the start for those who were sick with Covid-19. That would have saved the lives of many NHS workers in inadequate hospital settings and those patients who were shifted into care homes thus spreading death … useless politicians anyone?

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      tonyb

      UK Weather Lass

      You quarantine the sick and shelter the vulnerable. You don’t lock up everybody and in the process destroy their mental, physical and financial health.

      Agree about the Nightingales which could have provided specialist covid care and allowed general hospitals to be seen as safe havens for the other ailments that will kill far more than covid will.

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        • #

          UK WEather Lass, Tonyb, history is full of quarantines of people who might carry deadly diseases. Mere suspicion was enough.

          We still can’t accurate work out the IFR (Infection Fatality Rate) now. We certainly couldn’t predict it in Feb.Yes, they should have taken the infectious from crowded situations.

          But the UK didn’t close borders. The biggest scandal, arrogance and failure in the UK was the open borders, plus the late response, the lack of testing, and giving up track and trace far to prematurely to aim for herd immunity as if this was the flu when it isn’t.

          It was a gross travesty to lock the people in houses but let Brazilians, Indians, Russians, anyone at all, fly in — thus extending the need for a longer lockdown. The UK is an island. If borders were shut in MArch like Australia it could perhaps have eliminated the virus instead of suffering such a strong lockdown but now not having the benefit of freedom that comes with success.

          Restrictions now are still protecting health care workers (0.5% CFR).

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        OriginalSteve

        You are quite right.

        The whole covid thing has been about destroying whole economies and making mental criples of notmal people. Its like watching Dr Frankenstien re-animating a corpse…the NWO are a seriously sick bunch of disturbed individuals….the face of evil.

        People need to see the real target – its not about the disease, its a pussy, its about destroying people and economies….our families…our businesses…our friends.

        Anyone who supports this thing should be treated with suspicion, and are in line for a new Nuremberg Trial when its all over….the new n*zis…

        N*zism never died…it just went underground and appears to have resurfaced, it carries a hammer and sickle flag, but appears to love putting a whole state into an open air concentration camp and doing evil things to people when you observe the true spirit of whats going on. Read what n*zis did to people…

        People need to wake up, fast…

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          ORiginalSteve, hyperbole like Frankensteinian corpses isn’t going to help a scientific discussion. And equating this to he Nuremburg trials and nazi’s trivializes what people suffered in WWII.

          It’s a science thread, not therapy OK? Please write accurately.

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            Damon

            What is happening in Victoria is not hyperbole. People arrested and doors kicked in because … disbelievers? This is way beyond a ‘scientific’ discussion.

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              Damon, and you are free to start your own blog where frustrated people can rant and rage and get some relief from a dreadful situation. I believe there are other sites that are happy to have therapy sessions for people to comment?

              I am hoping to engender a scientific discussion for those who want to calmly discuss this historic scientific situation and think that it is only through understanding virology and epidemiology that we can find the best path through.

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        tonyb: You quarantine the sick and shelter the vulnerable

        Right?

        Instead we’re quarantining the healthy and the vulnerable have been left to random chance as to whether they will get any help at all. So far, despite every single country handling aged care facilities poorly (to criminally – like NYC) no lessons appear to have been learned, and the death rate there is mortifying.

        Dan Andrews in a presser recently said “Come on this is deadly, 18 families are mourning today”.

        Sounds bad right?

        Almost immediately the news anchor added “13 deaths in aged care facilities”. ie people who cannot get out and about anyway, stuck inside with poor virus handling protocols and no mask wearing or curfew or restriction of movement will make a single difference to their infection or mortality rate.

        The current response is not proportionate, and the data is being obfuscated for maximum fear / panic impact.

        Watching people get arrested for organising protests reminds me of Ordinary Men.

        While this book discusses a specific Reserve Unit during WWII, the general argument Browning makes is that most people succumb to the pressures of a group setting and commit actions they would never do of their own volition.

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        RickWill

        You quarantine the sick and shelter the vulnerable. You don’t lock up everybody and in the process destroy their mental, physical and financial health.

        That is a good approach. It requires a bit of learning to appreciate.

        The m-community in Melbourne have probably suffered similar mortality to London or New York. It appears that the learning costs about 600 deaths/M of population.

        An aged grandparent living in a household with younger children is difficult to shelter. Particularly before there was any appreciation of the risk to aged people.

        Then there are the embedded practices in modern employment that discouraged sheltering the vulnerable. A huge number of come to light in Australian aged care homes. For example, non-english speaking cleaners working in multiple aged care homes going to work with clear symptoms.

        I think all countries have gone through a steep learning curve on determining who is at risk and how they can be sheltered.

        A short, sharp lock down of 4 weeks with ability to mop up was all that is needed to get control of the infection if it is permitted to get out in the community.

        Beyond the 4 weeks it is a measure of the level of understanding and caring in the community to effectively shelter the vulnerable. The m-community in Melbourne of learnt the lesson. Hopefully the rest of Melbournians have taken heed as well.

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        UK-Weather Lass

        For centuries there have been outbreaks of sicknesses in the UK that were caused by very simple mistakes which were, in time, identified by intelligent and learned people. This began our concern with local public health authorities who could trace patterns and learn from them how a disease was moving through a population. This lead to measures as in fire control where you create natural breaks to stop the spread whilst moving the sick away from the healthy if you can.

        But what is starkly obvious about influenza viruses is that they spread quickly and easily and cause very little problem to very close to 99% of the population. For the 1% you will have vaccinated where possible and protected where necessary. You will also know through study how, where and why the influenza spreads and advise people where the hot-spots are e.g. your own home … etc. Our problem seemed to be by suggesting that every case was somehow a huge problem when most infected people were neither identified nor the subject of further intervention. We seemed to go looking for reasons to cause panic rather than being intelligent and learned.

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      Kalm Keith

      Yes.

      The way this has been handled is appalling.
      Politicians made no effort to work out “what” to do, they just picked up the biggest stick they could find and beat the drum.

      Lockdown, suspended animation, blah blah, look away for the BLM demonstration, monster a pregnant woman for irritating Dan, crush businesses and the core of civilisation in Australia;

      And the ask for a medal, or at least re-election.

      The last few months defines Australia as a Third world nation.

      Totally dysfunctional in the year of our Lord 2020.

      KK

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    Broadie

    Appears we have arrived at a consensus.
    The data is too scant and possibly distorted by vested interests to arrive at any definitive conclusion.

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    Environment Skeptic

    Stick with me. We all want WuFlu to be nothing, but scientists and skeptics need to…

    Must be a typo. you probably mean,…. ‘We all want WuFlu to be nothing, but non skeptical scientists and skeptical scientists need to…

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    Peter C

    This Post is getting comparatively Low Ratings, yet it is talking about a Valid and Important Question.

    How to ignore 94% of Covid deaths?
    Be wary of junk data and junk conclusions

    Actually the data is probably quite good. It comes from the US Centre for Disease Control and what they said was:
    For 6% of the deaths, COVID-19 was the only cause mentioned. For deaths with conditions or causes in addition to COVID-19, on average, there were 2.6 additional conditions or causes per death.

    Which is just quoting Jo above.

    Here is my contribution from the recent Thursday Unthreaded:

    “That is not quite correct. 6% of deaths had Covid recorded on the death certificate as the only cause of death. The others had various co-morbidities but Covid may well have caused the death, either as the main cause or by exacerbating existing conditions. A death “with Covid” implies that the Covid was entirely incidental.

    This video explains it well. 8 minutes.
    https://richardsonpost.com/harryrichardson/18156/cdc-figures-for-comorbidities-with-covid19-explained/

    On the other hand there has been at least one case in Victoria where the doctor completed the death certificate incorrectly and changed it when the woman’s daughter complained.
    https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/melbourne/hospital-wrongly-wrote-off-death-of-elderly-woman-as-covid-19/ar-BB18CGll?ocid=msedgntp

    Whether that is commonplace or not I could not say. Hopefully it is rare.

    http://joannenova.com.au/2020/09/thursday-open-thread-18/#comment-2362018

    That got 8 green thumbs and 8 red thumbs, which was interesting.

    Personally I think that the some of 6% of death certificates may represent lazy doctors who don’t know much about the patients condition. eg;elderly patient is found dead in a Nursing Home, where there were known cases of Covid. Just put down Covid. Job done. Before Covid it might have been stroke, or cardiac arrest or thromboembolism (all unproved but likely causes of death in old people).

    On the other hand there are cases of motor accident or suicide where the patient had a positive Covid test (not all of them are accurate). Should they be Covid deaths?

    Unfortunately I don’t think we will ever know exactly. So I will rephrase my initial comment; The data is likely accurate but possibly not very good.

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      Peter C

      I will further add that I am not in favour of the Community Lockdowns which we have had so far, including isolating states such as WA.

      It does work, but the economic damage is far too great for the mostly very elderly deaths caused. The compassionate society cuts both ways.

      I far better approach, in my view is the Isolate the Virus, not the healthy people. That means entry quarantine but also very strict isolation of known infected people. Isolate at home just doesn’t cut it, yet that is what we have been doing up till now..

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        Kalm Keith

        Excellent Peter, That’s the whole thing in a nutshell.

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          KK I didn’t think you supported the two week quarantine on entry to WA?

          Isolating the virus is what I suggested in Crush the Curve. 1. Keep it in China (lock the borders). 2. If that fails, keep it out of Oz (quarantine the flights). 3. If that fails, track, trace, mask and restrict, but 4, if all that fails, then community lockdown is the last option and the sooner, harder and faster you do it, then less lockdown you need.

          If Victoria isolated the infected regions with a hard border, the other regions could go back to normal faster. But no one in Vic or NSW seems to understand what a hard border is. (I know it’s very difficult compared to WA, but the leaders are not even talking about it, let alone doing it).

          Leaders who can’t do regional lockdowns are doomed to do statewide community lockdowns, and thus it came to pass…

          Hard border = no lockdowns.

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            Kalm Keith

            Australia is a sovereign Nation with clearly defined Borders.

            State borders in lockdown, from my reading, of the comment, are not useful.

            Political solutions to medical problems usually end badly as currently demonstrated.

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            RickWill

            If Victoria isolated the infected regions with a hard border, the other regions could go back to normal faster. But no one in Vic or NSW seems to understand what a hard border is. (I know it’s very difficult compared to WA, but the leaders are not even talking about it, let alone doing it).

            Victoria attempted to keep the virus within certain postcodes but the number of police required to achieve that is impossible to man – even in a police state.

            The building lockdowns, where a large proportion of the m-community reside, was effective because that is easier to police. But too late because they had already cast the virus into the wider community through their workplaces.

            Melbourne is in Stage 4 lockdown with curfew and travel limit of 5km. The rest of Victoria is on Stage 3 with no curfew and no limit on travel distance except entering Melbourne of course. The level of traffic has dropped to the point where random road blocks can be set up for revenue collection from people willing to test the limit of restrictions.

            I hope Victorians have connected the dots and have memories long enough to give Dan a resounding message at election time. Presumably the virus will be behind Victoria by the 2022 election – unless the opposition get the numbers to throw them out before that.

            The daily hearings into the hotel quarantine remains better television than any soap opera – even B&B being filmed with the awkwardness of social distancing – it has become a comedy.

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        OriginalSteve

        Be careful…its a short hop from your comment to internment camps….

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          PeterS

          Same goes to Tony Abbott if he’s not careful after making this very true statement:

          For me, the recent 75th anniversary of the end of World War Two prompted this reflection: that generation: ready to risk life to preserve freedom; this generation: ready to risk freedom to preserve life. Yet we don’t think of our parents and our grandparents as too brave, do we; I wonder what judgement history will pass on us?

          I think the answer to his question is fairly obvious. The war against dictators never ends even when they are home grown.

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            PeterS,

            War is not a pandemic. And if most people risk lives they don’t gain freedom for anyone, they just spread disease. The freedom is fleeting, and blindly seeking short term liberty only ensures less freedom as infection spreads.

            The only brave people today are the health workers who risk their lives to try to stop the infections. So brave people wear Hazmat suits and they still get sick and sometimes die (0.5%)

            What’s obvious is that Wars are not Pandemics.

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              PeterS

              So you do agree with dictators like Andrew that our freedoms mean nothing, and the arrest of that pregnant woman was justified. Sad to see you fall for that nonsense. We are not talking about the pandemic, we are talking about the approach to tackling the pandemic. You miss the point completely. Also, why pick on me? Many other here are in agreement with my comments and I’m in agreement with many others here yet you don’t try to contradict them. You have a problem with me?

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              • #

                For my money, people like transmission line workers, who have always have to deal with incredible difficulties and dangerous situations at work are brave. They not only know the risks, but choose to engage in them. The risks are ever present.

                Having a pandemic thrust on your usually benign (health care) working conditions involuntarily doesn’t really satisfy my definition of brave.

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                PeterS: Sorry if you feel singled out. See my many replies above to TonyB. I cannot possibly (and nor is it worth it) correct all the pointless misconceptions said in blind anger on every thread. Generally I try to raise standards among the most prolific commenters.

                PEople are making themselves more angry by using inaccurate and rather ridiculous absolutist statements and imagining I’ve said things I’ve never said:

                EG “So you do agree with dictators like Andrew that our freedoms mean nothing, and the arrest of that pregnant woman was justified. “

                That’s junk and you know it. Quote me instead (and perhaps discuss the topic? )

                It’s the new political correctness of the right. If I don’t have time to investigate and discuss an incident apparently I am now “Guilty” of supporting it?

                How is this any different to the leftist version of “Silence is Violence”.

                If you want to imagine I say things I’ve never said, it will just make you angrier and reduce the discussion to nothing.

                The left turned me into an Ogre because I said scientific things they didn’t like. If some on the right turn me in to their own version of an Ogre, it won’t change my opinion any more than the leftist bullies did.

                I will keep saying simple scientific truths as I see them, whether some readers like them is their issue.

                You could always try to persuade me calmly?

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                More power to you Jo. Lazy comments and arguments make my eyes glaze.

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              Gabriel Pentelie

              “blindly seeking short term liberty only ensures less freedom as infection spreads.”

              Blindly seeking illusory short term freedom from risk for a few ensures less liberty for all.

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          Kalm Keith

          It’s tragic that you can risk internment for writing a description of what you saw after stepping back a bit to see the full picture.

          Isn’t that what science is about:
          seeing the whole picture.

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    eilert

    You could make the same argument with influenza related death, since many people who have comorbidities are also more likely to be affected by it then people who only got the virus.
    The only difference the economy doesn’t get shut down, we are not locked up in our homes, are not required to wear masks and our politician will be given the boot if they even attempt any of the other fascistic action, which they could get away with, because of COVID.

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    • #

      Totally agree.

      Our fixation with a virus that is far less of a risk than first perceived is disturbing. We just need to stop trying to find the virus, isolate the vulnerable and move on. Sweden is through this and in the years to come we will marvel at the utter stupidity which possessed us here in Australia.

      Cynically, I believe PNG has the best solution.

      The govt has a plan which involves all sorts of rules and regulations. The bureaucrats and politicians are happy.

      The people are happy because the govt has a plan, and they just go about things as they always have, and are happy. Those signs at the markets on distancing are interesting but they have more important things to do.

      The PMV (mini bus) drivers are happy because their buses are full again, even though the govt says they should only run half full.

      The police are really happy because at their roadblocks they can now extort more money from their favourite targets of PMV and taxi drivers – as they can now use the excuse that these reckless people are not following govt rules.

      So things are all back to normal, and everybody is happy.

      Cynically I don’t expect any change up in PNG, they will sail along as they always have and covid will soon be a memory, and people will wonder why there was such a fuss early on. Would that we could be so smart…

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    Jojodogfacedboy

    Our system hates to have an independent and thoughtful leader to run our countries.
    Just follow what the US does blindly is our current system.
    When you start questioning a vast array of redundant and unnecessary government institutions with the imposing and enforcement of economic policies for favorite companies, you see how broken this system is.
    Governments corrupted themselves in allowing the banking system to control our monetary policies and regulations of themselves.
    Insurance companies are needed in the US but our other countries with socialization programs do not need them but our government still imposes this companies as necessities. Which means added expense for no reason. We also have a multitude of different socialization programs that are redundant and adds more costs.
    Cutting necessary programs for unnecessary policies also add to our taxation expenses.
    But, we are not allowed to bring these issues up as our government has too many distractions and control of our basic living with making life illegal to our government imposed policies and laws.

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      Jojodogfacedboy

      Why our lockdown was needed…
      Adding more immigration and cutting back hospital that were at high capacity made a vast shortage of hospital space along with no prepared supplies of PPE made an extremely likely a high infection along with overflowing hospitals.
      New York,USA sent their sick seniors back to the nursing homes and will not release their deceased numbers until after the US election.

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        OriginalSteve

        Yeah and NY is Democrat controlled…nuff said…

        Conservatives seem to love life, the left seems to love death…

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    Environment Skeptic

    Very difficult for me to ignore this new cutting edge medical research..

    Possibly some of the most cutting edge research at this time on the planet. Breathtaking.

    Amy Proal from Australia runs a great website resource called Microbe Minded.

    From: http://microbeminded.com/
    Interview with Resia Pretorius: how bacteria, viruses and their inflammatory products can impact blood clotting in chronic disease
    August 6th, 2020 by Amy Proal : https://youtu.be/Z-EtsX50jTs

    Resia Pretorius is both the Department Head and a Research Professor in the Physiological Sciences Department, Faculty of Science at Stellenbosch University in South Africa. Her team uses super-resolution and electron microscopy, together with flow cytometry and thromboelastic analysis of clot structure, to characterize inflammatory biomarkers (inflammagens) created by bacteria in human blood. She also studied how viruses like COVID-19 can drive similar clotting processes. Her team has published dozens of papers showing that bacterial inflammagens are increased in the blood of patients with a range of chronic inflammatory conditions, including Parkinson’s disease, Alzheimer’s disease and Type II diabetes. They have further detailed how such inflammagens interact with receptors on red blood cells, and bind or interact with the fibrinogen protein. This can impact the blood clotting cascade, resulting in hypercoagulation and chronic inflammation that negatively impacts surrounding blood vessels…..”

    Just brilliant !!

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      Environment Skeptic

      In one of many aspects/vistas opening up in the talk, it is particularly refreshing that the conversation between Amy and Resia illustrate, in my opinion, why it is so important to keep ones powder dry, and not fall for instant snake oil conclusions far, far, too early, especially with respect to the corona phenomena.

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  • #

    I don’t come here often, but I have noticed Jo is promulgating hysteria over covid19, and when I read the title of today’s post, I came to see. Sure enough, she has gone insane on the topic.

    I won’t get into a detailed argument; the characteristic of all politicized debates now is that debate is useless. But for those readers on the narrow margin of not being “in the tank” for accepting everything Jo puts out — followers of her false dogma, actually — I will just point out the following:

    Jo wrote, “In a world where only 6% of the US Covid death tally are truly due to Covid, you can protect yourself from Covid by getting fat, not getting tested and getting diabetes. I don’t think so.”

    That, ladies and gentlemen, is childish spite, not reason. It is transparent nonsense. I repeat: transparent nonsense. (She is equating “protecting yourself from covid” with “avoiding having your death counted as due to covid”.)

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      Jojodogfacedboy

      Don’t forget Racism is a public health crisis…at least in the US Democrats minds pushed by a woman who faked being native for decades…
      Sponsored by pop your head like a zit.

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      • #

        Harry, you’re always welcome to come here and make a case. We both know you can do better than insults.

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        • #
          Damon

          Cut it out. You have been rigidly biased towards lockdowns, bubbles, etc, for months. Lockdowns do not, and can not, work. Clinging to a discredited theory is pointless.

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          • #

            As I said, you’re welcome to make a case Damon.

            I worked to stop lockdowns more than any blogger or commentator I know. I had a plan to avoid them, and the plan succeeded. (See WA).

            Call me the anti-lcokdown girl. What did you do to prevent lockdowns?

            Hoping lockdowns are useless won’t change the evidence that shows all over the world that 12 days after lockdowns start they reduce the spread of the virus. Clinging to a fantasy won’t save the economy.

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    EternalOptimist

    My dad was an engineer on an aircraft carrier in WWII. He told me about one of the pilots who has 2 1/2 ‘kills’. He explained the half a kill was shared by another pilot who always joked that he should have got .75 because he followed it all the way down.
    Maybe we should do the same with co-morbidities. Three conditions means they get a third each

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    Keith Harrison

    This 18 minute video gives a good review of the 6% fallacy and Vitamin D trials. Very good. By a doctor who treats many Covid patients.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_TECf3xSFbU

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    Curious George

    Dangers of democracy are laid bare in this discussion.We can’t even agree on what a death from COVID19 means. Is it counted the same way in New York, California, Germany, France, Sweden, and Brazil? The situation is much simpler in countries with a Supreme Leader. There, the Leader decides what the number should be, no counting necessary.

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    GraphicConception

    The main problem with discussing any COVID-19 statistics is that we do not seem to know any with any degree of certainty.

    The first thing I noticed about COVID-19 deaths is that the profile showing how people were affected was exactly the same as the profile of people who die anyway. That is, the young fit ones were perfectly safe; the older ones were more susceptible and the very old with several other health issues were most likely to die. That put us straight back into Climate Change territory where we were looking at signals that look very much like natural variation.

    Interestingly, there are many Climate Change parallels: The UN is the authority. A sub-branch of the UN has been appointed to advise and that sub-branch is being run by a person of dubious integrity. There are scare stories saying we are all going to die based on computer models. The effects are impossible to detect for yourself. We need to rely on “experts” and just trust what they say.

    Now we even have: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/31/bill-gates-how-covid-19-pandemic-can-help-world-solve-climate-change.html

    Both scares mean that the people’s actions will be restricted by governments. Many rich people will be able to make government sponsored piles of cash by “helping” (Renewable Energy/Vaccines).

    Anyway, I digress. We do not know how many people have the SARS-CoV-2 virus because, the last time I checked, no-one had isolated it yet. As such, there can be no valid test. What is tested for are things that are “believed” to co-exist with the virus. Then we use a testing methodology of which its inventor said that it was not useful for testing! And he won the Nobel Prize for his work.

    The issue is that the test method, RT-PCR, is really just an amplification technique and if you amplify things enough you will find something – particularly as one of the things being looked for is a standard part of human DNA. Another issue is that not everyone uses the same number of replication cycles. Each cycle creates a doubling. So number of cases in, say, Canada could be based on different criteria to the number in Australia.

    We also know that asymptomatic people are unlikely to pass on the virus so if the only cases we need to worry about have symptoms then why test?

    Then we have the “All people” figure from this CDC website: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm
    It says that: All deaths involving COVID-19 = 170,566.
    And: Deaths involving COVID-19 and pneumonia excluding influenza = 75,771.
    Is the difference entirely down to influenza deaths?
    Then there is the 6% …

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    mwhite

    Prediction

    In the Northern hemisphere more people will die of flu than covid 19 this winter.

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    Mike Smith

    As with climate change, the available data is hugely incomplete and of very poor quality.

    Nevertheless, I thank you for a very sound and thoughtful analysis of the issues. Great job!

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    David Maddison

    I would appreciate comments on this piece by a n Australian doctor.

    https://www.spectator.com.au/2020/08/coronavirus-a-look-at-the-numbers-that-matter/

    If, for example, we were to ask the question of whether your preference for ice cream flavour influenced your mortality, we would arrive at the obvious answer that it didn’t. In other words, regardless of whether you prefer chocolate or strawberry, or anything else, we’d expect that your life expectancy would still be 80.7 for men and 84.9 for women.

    And so with the case of Covid19, we can simply compare the average age of mortality for those that had it with the life expectancy. This will give us a direct measure of the effect of the virus on mortality.

    Fortunately, these statistics are available from the government website.

    When we process the data, we arrive at some astonishing, and given the current panic sweeping the nation, counterintuitive numbers: the average age at which men that have Covid-19 die is 81.1, and the average age at which women that have Covid-19 die is 85.2.

    In other words, the average age at which people with Covid-19 die correlates within half a percentage point to the life expectancy. And given that the most recent life expectancy data is 2018, and it is slowly trending upwards, to all intents and purposes the average age at which people with Covid-19 die is the same as the average age at which they were going to die anyway.

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      RickWill

      You cannot argue with the numbers. But drawing any conclusions from them requires some clear thinking. Those numbers are the outcome of a massive effort and sacrifices in mobility from the broad population to avoid overloading the medical system.

      My son has been a physician in Covid wards in two large public hospitals in Melbourne for the last 10 weeks – he experienced the rapid influx of patients. During that period he was relocated from one hospital that was in control to a hospital in the northern suburbs that was out of control. The first few hours of his first week on nightshift at that hospital was ringing staff to advise that they had tested positive and also advise their supervisor to find a replacement.

      The reason for the ferocity of the second wave in Melbourne will never be stated out load in the WOKE State. But you need look no further than the m-community and Eid al-Fitr family gatherings. If you are of the c-faith, think of Christmas gatherings without any consideration for infection control.

      No location has experienced a second wave so much worse than the first than Victoria. The only solution to avoid overrunning hospitals was to have a second lockdown. It even shows up in the Australia chart:
      http://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/?chart=countries&highlight=Australia&show=-10&y=both&scale=linear&data=cases-daily-7&data-source=jhu&xaxis=left#countries

      If hospitals were overrun then triage decisions may shift the age profile of those who passed away.

      Then there is the possibility that the virus was disproportionally set free in aged care homes because of the source of workers in them. That tilts the average age of mortality toward a higher age.

      Death is relatively permanent. In Australia, life is cherished and the vast majority of children like to avoid being orphaned for as long as they can. My personal perspective is that the quality of life in an aged care home is not spectacular but then I am not in one yet. Australia has a good record of extending average age. The question of quality of life really is for every individual – are looking forward to the nest great grandchild?.

      The one certainty is that Australia has done a far better job in avoiding deaths and economic impact than most other countries. Trade surplus and current account are both positive and at record level. Economic activity for 19/20 is down 6.3% – far better than most other countries. Overall death toll no higher than previous years. There have been no increase in suicides.

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      greggg

      When I last looked at the average age of “flu” deaths it was a tad younger than the average lifespan. That seems to indicate that while Covid is more contagious, flu is more deadly.

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      GraphicConception

      The Australian doctor has a point. I noticed from the outset that the profile of people who died of COVID-19 was the same as the profile of people who died. That is young people were hardly affected; old people were more likely to die and those with other health conditions the most likely.

      Then from the US we get this:

      https://gellerreport.com/2020/04/total-us-deaths.html/

      Was it really necessary to shut down the world when so many lives were being saved?

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    AZ1971

    There were people who died from heart attacks and strokes who wouldn’t have died if they weren’t afraid to visit hospital during an epidemic.

    So if you die from a heart attack or stroke at the hospital, because of contact tracing, you’ll be counted as a Covid-19 fatality …

    but if you die from a heart attack or stroke at home, you MAY be the victim of untested Covid-19?

    Kind of a damned-if-you-do, damned-if-you-don’t catch-22 play, isn’t it?

    In other words, deaths from Covid-19 are all based on faith, just like trying to prove God exists: you either believe or you don’t. Do we assume ALL deaths at home for those who didn’t seek medical treatment out of fear they’d contract WuFlu are the result of undiagnosed Covid-19, or do we assume NONE of those are due to Covid-19? If it lies somewhere inbetween, where’s the cut-off?

    In the U.S. the CDC counts any death within 60 days of a positive PCR or antibody Covid-19 test to be “due to coronavirus”. That includes every possible cause: accident, age, stroke, MI, cancer, septicemia, respiratory illness, etc. If we want to pin AS MANY DEATHS AS POSSIBLE on this virus, ask yourself why that is. Because of reimbursement rates? Because it’s an election year? Because medicine is equally as corrupted as climate science? Take your pick from those or any one of literally dozens of other options. The truth will be in whether or not Covid-19 in the U.S. magically drops to near zero deaths should Biden get elected in November.

    I find it disingenuous and illogical to make unsubstantiated claims that “knowing coronavirus causes X then every Y death with X is due to Covid-19.” That’s sloppy, slippery-slope reasoning and why I’m fed up with everything to do with this BS virus.

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    John F. Hultquist

    This new virus escaped into the USA via multiple points and was on its way before authorities (medical and political) suspected there was a problem. Sadly elderly care facilities incurred early infections. One place, Life Care Center of Kirkland (Washington) generally had 5-7 deaths per month. Only when deaths spiked, and a few days to realize this, did authorities respond – - too late and poorly.
    Panic2020 followed.

    Observations:
    A: In the 1950s, polio was the major medical issue, and at the University of Pittsburgh (about 60 miles from my hometown) Jonas Salk and team introduced a vaccine in 1955. Businesses and schools continued to function – and we got the dose(s) in school.

    B: Flues and other illnesses have long term complications. The new virus does also. What’s new. Anyone can search-up these things. Try “Rheumatic fever” for a starter. Or, if you’ve got an hour I can tell you about my wife’s open heart surgery and new Mitral Valve.

    C: Those forcing others to shut down and lose their livelihoods and accumulated wealth have not, themselves, suffered inconveniences from their orders. Governors Jay Inslee, Gavin Newsom, and Andrew Cuomo are examples, as is the Mayor of NYC, Bill de Blasio.
    When these people have been stripped of 85% of their wealth, and that of their next 15 years my anger will cease to grow. The sadness will go on and on.

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    • #
      PeterS

      It goes to show how gullible we humans are and can’t see what’s really happening. As the article concludes:

      Unfortunately we will learn NOTHING from Covid19 and in fact we have empowered bureaucrats to take more control in the future. We gave into their wet dreams and like all bureaucrats they will NOT give up the power we have granted them.

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    Another Ian

    In comments there

    “J West
    September 4, 2020 at 10:45 am

    Masks do not work in the way the ‘Covidian’s’ claim they do. A virus will float right through those cotton daisy print home made masks. Even the store bought masks barely keep dust out.

    A spec of dust is like a giant boulder to a virus.”

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    Drapetomania

    And what if Fauci stumbled at the very start, and no one noticed until recently?..
    https://drmalcolmkendrick.org/2020/09/04/covid-why-terminology-really-matters/

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    Another Ian

    “A brand new TV show has just been announced called Hancock’s Half-Hour. Over the course of 30 minutes the main character, Hapless Hancock, playing the part of the Health Secretary, will highlight all the government’s absurd policies and fake facts and figures surrounding the covid situation. ”

    https://www.sott.net/article/440830-Hancocks-Half-Hour

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    Michael Hammer

    I accept that there are valid points in this post but to me it seems one sided. Yes covid is a nasty disease and is killing people, lets accept that. The world is a dangerous place and there are always risks and always disasters that happen. Sure take the risks of covid seriously but how far do you go? How much damage in other areas are you prepare to do to lessen the risk? Because right now we are putting our civilisation and freedom under serious risk in an effort to address this issue.

    To a large extent the answer depends on how scared one is. Lets look at some other examples. We know beyond doubt that smoking is harmful to people, indeed in the long run it probably kills more people than covid. Why don’t we simply ban tobacco as an illegal substance? That would do far less harm to our society than what we are currently doing for covid. Another example, alcohol consumption is clearly harmful and lots of people die from excess consumption not to mention killing others while intoxicated and the family violence that occurs while intoxicated. So why not simply ban alcohol? Flu is also a serious illness and one that causes considerable excess deaths. Should we lock down our society every winter to prevent it. Our recent experience with covid lock downs suggest it would be effective but we don’t because we are so familiar with the threat we ignore it. Many don’t even bother to get a yearly vaccination at the minimal cost of $10-$20. The point is, we have grown accustomed to these risks and are no longer scared of them, even though we probably should be, so we don’t react strongly.

    There is not always a benign answer to problems and the only solution is to try and steer a course of minimal harm, but that is almost impossible to do when influenced by a state of fear. And that brings me to an even more serious parallel.

    There are many people out there who are panic stricken over the threat of global warming. They see it as far more serious even than Covid and insist we need to completely overturn our society in its name. Many of us here at this blog disagree because we do not see AGW as a major threat if indeed a threat at all but if we are prepared to give in to our fears then do we have the right to disparage others simply because they have different fears.

    I know Tony Abbot is the butt of all criticism but I think the point he made is valid;

    “our forebears risked their safety for freedom, we are risking our freedom for safety”. Life is a very precious commodity but so is freedom. Accepting that its OK for authorities to break into peoples homes and arrest them simply because they voice a view the government objects to is a very dangerous precedent and its always possible to come up with a plausible justification. Consider the claim the BLM protest was OK because times were different. Really, the rule then was no more than 10 people in a group at a protest and 100 meters between groups. Do the photo’s suggest that was even remotely adhered to? Is this really about safety or about enforcing obedience?

    The current actions against Covid are doing harm. Breeding massive distrust and fear of police, social isolation and mental health trauma, financial distress and possible ruin for a considerable portion of the population, disruption to children’s education, giving government the message that they can subject the electorate to draconian totalitarian restrictions and get away with it among many others. We need to make a rational not emotional decision as to whether the long term cost is worth the long term gain.

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      Kalm Keith

      Thanks for that comment Michael. Right on the button.

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    • #

      Michael,

      When skeptics are posting material on mortality counts that is wildly wrong, and embarrassingly ill informed, is there not some value in a single post discussing the errors of fact?

      I realize people are frustrated and angry, but good scientists know there needs to be a place for dedicated focus on the science of the topic rather than expecting every discussion to be the full evolved end point of a political-economic-medical decision?

      One point at a time…

      Elsewhere on the blog I’ve pointed out that actual deaths from the flu in the US are only 3,000 – 15,000 a year. Deaths from Covid are already 10 times that in the US, and the pandemic is not over.

      US Flu deaths are modeled and exaggerated to help scare people into getting vaccines.

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    Robber

    In The Australian today: Coronavirus: Nursing home death toll down by 1000
    “Overall, 32,398 nursing home residents have died in the year to July, unpublished Department of Health data reveals, compared with 33,383 in the first seven months of last year.
    In particular the autumn and winter months of May, June and July have experienced significant year-on-year falls. In July last year, 5455 nursing home residents died, compared with 4747 in July this year.”
    “The fall in nursing home deaths across the nation is likely the result of increased influenza immunisation rates in the community and infection control protocols introduced during the pandemic, the department said.”
    Yet all the headlines have been about the 737 deaths from CV19.
    Elderly people in nursing homes are reaching the ends of their lives, and on average survive for about 4 years.
    Thaat’s not to say that left unchecked, CV19 could have run wild.

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    joseph

    This by a woman who works in the area of death recording and goes into great detail.

    “COVID-19 Death Recording Manipulation Explained”

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GVJ0g3TBR2o&feature=emb_logo

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    tom

    We will starve more people than wuhan could kill.
    We have stripped freedoms, destroyed businesses, exploded suicides & divorce, and
    created a urban flight that is incredible to watch.

    These idiots opened schools with a mask & social distancing requirements for Kids!!
    Even recess…outdoors…they are monitored for keeping their mask on & social distancing.
    We are rural, 85% of parents said no to masks for their kids. Thankfully homeschooling has
    exploded, with many pulling kids out of school. Kids playing in the park after school with no
    social distancing or masks, are then supposed to bubble boy up when they go to school?
    For wuhan? The world has truly gone crazy.

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      MP

      This is the iceagefarmer, he looks at the effects of this virus on the food supply.
      there is some interesting bits in this video, that need to be looked into further.

      An exercise into a virus’s impact on the food supply was conducted in 2015.

      https://youtu.be/ClOJEGGBtNI

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    TedM

    WE can continue debate the value of lock downs, should they be or not be imposed. Or to what degree they should or should not be imposed. We can compare it to the flu where the principles of social distancing, diligent hand washing, lock downs and other restrictions have never been imposed, meaning that such comparison is meaningless. However surely the issue that we should now focus on is available treatments that should mean the end of any lock down and a return to normality.

    There would appear to be “at least” two such available therapies. The HCQ and Ivermectin (triple therapies). Just how we influence our authorities, I do not know. It almost appears as if some sort of malevolent force is in control of the Western medical authorities and media. That some in authority would rather see their citizens die that admit that they were wrong.

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    Travis T. Jones

    UN Chief who served as president of Socialist International from 1999 to 2005 suggests that we “consider our economic models” in order to prevent bad weather …

    We must remember that the one silver lining presented by COVID-19 is the unique moment it has granted — a moment in which stakeholders are willing to discuss the hard questions, including as they relate to our economic models and financial architecture, and pursue innovative solutions that were once relegated to the fringes of economic thought.”

    https://www.un.org/press/en/2020/dsgsm1439.doc.htm

    Perhaps we should look at the UN climate models first …

    Feb 3, 2020: Climate Models Are Running Red Hot, and Scientists Don’t Know Why

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2020-02-03/climate-models-are-running-red-hot-and-scientists-don-t-know-why

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    Travis T. Jones

    CO2 induced climate doomsday update:

    Best Indian Rainfall Since 1901 Raises Hopes For Record Harvest

    https://climatechangedispatch.com/best-indian-rainfall-since-1901-raises-hopes-for-record-harvest/

    97% science:
    Future
 Climate models suggest that Indian Ocean will continue to warm under increasing greenhouse gases. Will the monsoon decrease further?

    https://www.climate.rocksea.org/research/warm-ocean-weak-monsoon/

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    Matty

    I don’t normally hand around to argue once I post something so it could have been me who posted the 6% line Jo is referring to. If I post I do it for the sake of debate and informative value and leave it at that most of the time. Clearly I thought the 6 – 94 % thing was pertinent and still do. If people haven’t noticed the lockdowns are well past being highly destructive in many ways. I think those numbers make it clear just who should be isolating. I have never displayed casual regard for my health – if my pants tighten I don’t buy new ones I lose weight. If I drink too much I ease it. I keep active and able but I’ve been locked up because of people who don’t. We were warned for years about the public health time bombs like obesity/diabetes and now a virus to set it off a little. 6% tells me normal people should have doing the important stuff like keeping the economy afloat because no tax revenues equals no hospitals in the end.

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    John

    The YouTube videos about COVID-19 by Dr Roger Seheult of Medcram are well worth a look. He addresses the conspiracy theorists’ “Only 6%” in his 106th video, “COVID 19 Update Update 106: Comorbidities and Excess Deaths; Bradykinin and Coronavirus” available at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_TECf3xSFbU . He’s an emergency department doctor who deals with COVID-19 patients and he’s a good communicator.

    His point is the same as Jo’s but he goes further.

    He points out that death certificates written by doctors ask for the proximal cause of death (i.e. what specifically caused it) and then a list of comorbidities. In some (most? all?) US states, in the case of people with COVID-19, it’s to appear last in the list.

    He says that no-one dies from COVID-19. The disease, like most viruses, triggers other medical conditions that do cause death, things like acute respiratory disorder, heart attacks, strokes and sepsis. In fact he says that a death certificate listing only COVID-19 as the cause is almost certainly incorrect.

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      Kalm Keith

      And ?

      Your comment at #51 suggests that you believe that CV19 causes Diabetes?

      Would you please comment on that.

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    MP

    In the climate change debate we are told on this site not to believe the people in white coats, not to believe the government, not to believe the media, The Government BOM is manipulating the Data, but the covid debate we are told to believe the same people, because they are medical doctors?
    The courts seem to have a constant stream of medical professionals filing through on every charge imaginable from fraud, rape, malpractice to murder.
    There are hundreds of medical doctors who are coming out against this response and most do compare it to the flu and the same as the climate change spin, their papers if published get deleted, their jobs threatened. Which doctors to believe, the ones being paid to spin it or the ones risking their lively hood?
    The worldometer is constantly held up as the best practice, as the exert below indicates it has found honest governments and honest media to get the data from for their graphs. (we deemed reliable)
    From worldometer about page,

    For the COVID-19 data, we collect data from official reports, directly from Government’s communication channels or indirectly, through local media sources when deemed reliable.

    The Government compilers of the info has a high likelihood of being the medical BOM, what numbers do you want.
    The world ran out of PPE at the very start, Australia with 300 people in hospital at the peak, yet we were subjected to the constant stream of circus performers disguised as dancing nurse’s head to toe in PPE.
    We are not locked down because of a virus, we are locked down because of a model, the John Hopkins model, which was so wrong it’s embarrassing and everything in climate is based on dodgy models and again it is a constant stream of models based on dodgy data and we have had all our rights removed for these models?
    When has anyone heard the government’s plan to remove restrictions, never, it is relax. When has anyone heard return to normal, never, it is the new normal.
    The PCR tests, how is it corona virus -19 specific as opposed to corona virus in general, what I have seen start off with covid 19 but when they talk about the fragment amplification its corana they state not covid-19. I have no idea and I have asked this question on here before and never got a reply.
    I am sick of the constant covid cry of “you just want to kill old people” as much as I am sick of the climate cry of “you just want to kill young people”.

    Same script different villain.

    Donald trump in an interview the other day on the Vaccines stated “normally vaccines take many many years to make, but we have done in months what takes years”, a never before successfully made RNA vaccine that they have spent 20 years failing at, has now been done in months and the testing is included in those months, if you want it good, but do not force your wish’s on others with the old socialist catch cry of “its for the good of the collective”.
    I keep reading on this site “short sharp lock-down, 2 weeks”, yet nowhere in the world has this been done, yet wash rinse repeat.

    Short leash, muzzle on, an hours exercise a day, they may extend the leash, eventually.

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    MCMXLIII

    According to health.gov.au as of 4/9/20 there have been 737 deaths recorded due to Covid 19, most (650) in Victoria and most in the 70 – 90+ age group.
    The economic cost of the lockdowns are yet to be felt in full, will be enormous, and will be carried by the younger generations and generations to come.
    Whether the costs are/were worth the benefits raises awkward questions yet to be settled.

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    nc

    Good read until I got to the,”US Borders should have been closed earlier” well they where and Trump was called racist.

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    Terry Young

    I’m no scientist …or politician but wouldn’t it be sensible to concentrate more on the cause rather than the symptoms? There must be a reason why the virus spreads like it does and attacks the people it does. Am I right in saying that viruses are “rubbish collectors” ….meaning they go around cleaning up things that are already “sick”. Why are we so susceptible to this virus? What do we need to do to prepare for the next virus? As a farmer I’ve got my doubts that the food we produce…and process is as healthy as it could be. Take care everybody.

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    Travis T. Jones

    Half of Victoria has been left mentally scarred by the strict lockdown with even higher levels of depression and anxiety among the young, exclusive new polling reveals …

    Shell-shocked Victorians count cost of lockdown
    https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/shell-shocked-victorians-count-cost-of-lockdown-20200904-p55sf8?utm_term=Autofeed&utm_campaign=nc&utm_medium=social&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1599213103

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    TdeF

    No one lives forever, but it would be nice not to die prematurely. And the news is that total deaths in Aged Care have dropped overall by 1,000 in this year, even allowing for Wu Flu. And then you get the expected annual flu deaths, also way down.

    If there is any good to come from this disaster, it is the awareness of how tolerant we have become of viruses and bacteria and death.

    In and before the 19th century, maternal mortality was 30%. And infant mortality was a massive 50% in the first year.
    Let that sink in. It’s why so many children grew up with a stepmother and the tales of the wicked stepmother, if they survived the first year. One family had 21 children and only one made it to 21. So when England started trading with India, the average life expectancy in India was only 24 years!

    Then we discovered hygiene, largely in the Crimean war, the story of Florence Nightingale. Doctors started washing their hands, which saved countless lives, both of women and soldiers who generally died a week later from septic infection. (the cleanliness came from the extraordinary life of James Barry who was really Margaret Anne Buckley who lived her life as a man and was Nightingale’s boss. She also was the first to perform Caesarean surgery where both baby and mother survived)

    And WW1 gave us transfusions, the other major cause of material death, blood loss.

    We live in an amazing world, but we have forgotten to wash our hands, cover our coughs, stay home if we are sick. We are told to ‘soldier on’ and infect everyone else. And I have caught some really nasty viruses from taxi drivers and on aircraft next to utterly inconsiderate people who should not have been travelling.

    It’s not just about cures, but about realising we are in a war with viruses. And they are killing people but we don’t care, as long as we can travel.

    So while games are played, especially in virus disaster area Victoria with a dictator who used his power to make it far worse, we will face 2021 with a greater awareness of the need for hygiene, isolation, elimination of viruses and not just tolerance. My own great hope is rapid testing of specific viruses, so they can be isolated and eliminated rapidly. And not spread through aircraft, ships and communities and countries.

    We have only started to see the great virus plagues with seven billion people. We need to make sure than any novel virus is stopped in its tracks, bio weapon or not. Who wants to “see Paris and die”?

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    EternalOptimist

    The next virus may already be amongst us. It only takes one ‘super spreader’ to make it unstoppable, so we must make sure it does not spread.
    If it only takes one infected to cause the harm, we must make sure they are prevented from even getting amongst us.

    and as we don’t know they are amongst us until its too late, we have to stop EVERYONE from getting in. FOREVER.

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    John

    People who talk about COVID-19 usually only talk about the deaths. The following symptoms have been reported in patients who (supposedly) recovered.

    - Heart damage
    - Lung damage
    - Kidney damage
    - Chronic fatigue
    - Joint and muscle pain
    - Nerve issues (e.g. “pins and needles”)
    - Hair loss
    - Neuropsychological issues (e.g. headaches, dizziness, mood disorders, cognitive impairment, depression and anxiety)
    - Disorders of the immune system (myasthenia gravis, Guillain-Barre syndrome)
    - Insomnia
    - Stomach disorders and diarrhoea
    - Loss of taste and/or smell
    - Diabetes
    - Having to live with consequences of strokes, epilepsy or amputations due to aneurysms

    (Sourced from medical papers, anecdotal reports by medical professionals, some of whom have survived COVID-19, and just two points from non-professional people who suffered from it.)

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    • #
      Annie

      There is an article in The Australian (magazine section) today (sorry, can’t seem to link from this tablet and probably paywalled anyway). It discusses just this horrible feature of the virus for some people who might only have had what seemed mild at the time. What the article does not discuss at all is the nutritional status of the people concerned. It says that they were previously healthy and fit but there is no mention of D3 or Zn status.
      How many of them could have been saved from this misery by early treatment with Dr Zelenko’s protocol (HCQ, etc.) or Prof Tom Borody’s (Ivermectin, etc.)?

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      • #
        David-of-Cooyal-in-Oz

        Good question Annie, but I’ve not seen it even raised before. Has anyone?
        But my guess is that if the protocol had been implemented within a few days of exposure – and in less than 5 days seems like the go – the virus would be eliminated completely so those later nasties would be avoided.
        So I reckon the protocol should be administered to anyone who may have been in contact, even instead of testing!!?? That’d probably be cheaper as well as being more effective in eliminating it.
        Cheers
        Dave B

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    John

    People who talk about COVID-19 usually only talk about the deaths. The following symptoms have been reported in patients who (supposedly) recovered.

    - Heart damage
    - Lung damage
    - Kidney damage
    - Chronic fatigue
    - Joint and muscle pain
    - Nerve issues (e.g. “pins and needles”)
    - Hair loss
    - Neuropsychological issues (e.g. headaches, dizziness, mood disorders, cognitive impairment, depression and anxiety)
    - Disorders of the immune system (myasthenia gravis, Guillain-Barre syndrome)
    - Insomnia
    - Stomach disorders and diarrhoea
    - Loss of taste and/or smell
    - Diabetes
    - Having to live with consequences of strokes, epilepsy or amputations due to aneurysms

    (Sourced from medical papers, anecdotal reports by medical professionals, some of whom have survived COVID-19, and just two points from non-professional people who suffered from it.)

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    • #
      Kalm Keith

      John, surely you aren’t suggesting that CV19 caused people to contract Diabetes Type 2?

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      • #
        TdeF

        Why not? Damage to the pancreas could do this. Type 1 or type 2.

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        • #
          Kalm Keith

          I have never studied Type 1, but I am reliably aware of the discovery of T11 following the Dutch Winter Hunger in WW11 and I would be very surprised to find that T11 can be anything else but a pre-disposition acquired during postal development.

          Ask the early Australian inhabitants who came into town and found trouble with the increase in calories of the new diet.

          And also how, when they returned to the Bush, they recovered.

          KK

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          • #
            Kalm Keith

            “acquired during postal development”

            Read.

            “acquired during phoetal development”

            Having said that, can partial damage to the pancreas mean that less insulin is available to process calories?

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          Kalm Keith

          Damage to pancreas from external causes like infection; can that be classed as diabetes?

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    • #
      Ross

      A number of respiratory issues can result in some or all of these issues. They are not unique to Covid.
      My wife got Guilliane Barre syndrome following a bout of bronchitis ( due we think to a poorly designed air conditioning system in a r modern building she was working in). She has on going health issues due to it.
      Talk to anyone who has had pneumonia and yes, even a bad case of flu and some will tell you they never got back to normal or it took a very long time to get back to normal.

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    Diabetes might not save you from COVID-19, but smoking sure can.

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  • #

    Jo: are you scared of being infected with COVID-19?

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      David-of-Cooyal-in-Oz

      That’s an interesting question, and one I’ve thought about quite a bit. I have two answers, “Yes”, and “No”.
      First, my “No” answer is because I think the regime I’m following – the Zelenuko protocol, substituting quercetin for hcq, and adding 6000 IU of vitamin D3 – will stop any infection from this virus in its tracks; but my “Yes” answer is because if I were to be exposed and tested I’d become involved the medical/legal system which is designed to not cure me. And I’m in the worst age group…
      Cheers
      Dave B

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  • #
    Slithers

    Vitamin D especially D3 and death by SARS-CoV-2
    https://principia-scientific.com/new-study-vitamin-d-highly-effective-in-removing-covid-19-icu-risk/
    I think that means we were right!

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    RickWill

    Trump is not an ideologue. He is willing to change midstream if he sees something that brings the facts into better focus. Fauci is out and Atlas is in:
    https://www.politico.com/news/2020/08/17/trump-scott-atlas-coronavirus-doctor-396741

    Trump elevates Scott Atlas, a doctor with a rosier coronavirus outlook.
    Unlike Deborah Birx and Anthony Fauci, the new senior adviser is telling the president what he likes to hear.

    Here is an interview with Scott Atlas:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kZqGSnVt8c8

    This is a link to the article referred to in the interview:
    https://thehill.com/opinion/healthcare/499394-the-covid-19-shutdown-will-cost-americans-millions-of-years-of-life
    I think this statement would appeal to Trump:

    By following a thoughtful analysis that finally recognizes all available actions and their consequences, we can save millions of years of American life.

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    BruceC

    I’d like to know how do you explain this one?

    Women receives letter from Shelby County Health Department (Memphis) on August 20 stating that after her test on June 20th she has been diagnosed with COVID-19 and she is required to remain in isolation for a minimum of 10 days.

    Isolation is not a problem for this woman, she died on February 16th and was cremated.

    The letter came from the same building where they have a record of her death and is where the death certificate came from.

    https://www.wkyc.com/article/news/investigations/shelby-county-woman-died-6-months-ago-letter-covid-19-positive/522-bcd8c6e1-5d75-4e07-af99-ed7babed909b

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    • #
      RickWill

      I’d like to know how do you explain this one?

      If their system is like the one being used in Victoria, Australia, then they may have run out of stone.

      Victoria is still trying to reconcile the number of Covid deaths in aged care homes. The homes are managed under Federal Government regulations but the State has responsibility for collating the deaths. Aged care operators are required to report to a number of agencies in the different jurisdictions. When deaths were in double digits on a daily basis they ran out of stone for carving the notices. Also posting the stone notices gets delayed by the postal service that is trying to cope with a massive increase in parcel delivery as Victorians buy online while staying in their cells.

      They were testing Fax machines as an alternative to carved stone but that is bewildering technology for the woke, brain challenged public servants recruited by an even woker Labor government. I think they have stopped the rollout of Faxes as most were just sitting around; back to carved stone and the inherent delays.

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        Peter C

        Ingenious KK,

        However I fear something more sinister. A death certificate is normally issued within a day or so of the death. It is supposed to state the cause of death and any antecedent conditions.
        What I suspect is that the death certificates do not show Covid, but the department has decided to count them as Covid deaths in any case for some reason, which has not been revealed yet.

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    Peter C

    “It’s impossible for someone to be tested on June 20, who passed away on February 16th,” said Whittington. “I tried to call the health department this morning, ask them why this was going on. She said she would have to get a supervisor. She was sorry for the mistake or she couldn’t tell me any information till she got a supervisor, and I haven’t heard back from them.”

    Whittington said this situation makes him question not only the Shelby County Health Department’s COVID 19 statistics, but statistics across the country.

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    • #

      Perhaps blood samples or swabs are saved and retested. Perhaps x-rays were reanalyzed by someone four months later who now knows what to look for.

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    tom0mason

    But everything will be great when ‘they’ develop a vaccine.
    It will, wont it?

    https://youtu.be/qBJyTk9enR4

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    Peter C

    Covid and Death Certificates!

    This is quite relevant. I have just come across it. The WA Health Department has issued advice about how to complete a Death Certificate where the patient was known or suspected of having a Covid infection.

    https://www.coronerscourt.wa.gov.au/_files/COVID_Medical_Certificate_Cause_Death_Guide.pdf#:~:text=In%20summary%2C%20medical%20practitioners%20should%20write%20COVID-19%20%28confirmed%29,Example%20of%20medical%20certificate%20of%20cause%20of%20death

    COVID-19 GUIDE FOR MEDICAL PRACTITIONERS
    This notice is provided as a guide for medical practitioners completing death certificates
    in COVID-19 related deaths. This notice is not intended as legal advice.
    If someone dies from diagnosed COVID-19 or probable COVID-19 is that a reportable
    death under the Coroners Act 1996?
    NO, please see the notification on the court’s website.
    A death due to, or probably due to, COVID-19 or its complications is a natural cause
    death and is not a reportable death under the Coroners Act. A death certificate can be
    completed in the similar manner as a death due to influenza or other viral infection.
    What is recorded on the Medical Cause of Death Certificate?
    The Australian Bureau of Statistics has provided guidance on how to certify deaths due
    to COVID-19. COVID-19 should be recorded on the medical cause of death certificate for
    all deceased where the disease caused, or is assumed to have caused, or contributed to
    death.
    When can COVID-19 be “assumed” to have caused a death?
    Where a person has been tested and confirmed to have COVID-19 and has died of
    complications associated with the infection, such as myocarditis or pneumonia, then
    COVID-19 is “assumed” to have contributed to the death and should be recorded on the
    death certificate.
    Where a person is known to have suffered typical symptoms of COVID-19, such as
    fevers, cough, or breathing difficulties, during a COVID-19 pandemic, but has not been
    formally tested or diagnosed, then it is reasonable to “assume” the death was related to
    COVID-19 and should be recorded on the death certificate.
    Certification of deaths occurring at home will depend on the information available to
    the certifying medical practitioner. Where there is no recent history of respiratory
    symptoms, fever or other symptoms known to be associated with COVID-19, and there
    are no other underlying conditions that could explain the death, the death will need to
    be reported to the Coroner.
    In summary, medical practitioners should write COVID-19 (confirmed) or
    (suspected), on the death certificate when they determine, to the best of their
    knowledge and belief, that the patient was suffering from the infection and this was a
    likely causative factor in the death.
    Example of medical certificate of cause of death
    Medical Data: Part 1 and 2
    Disease or condition
    leading directly to
    death.
    Antecedent Causes
    that gave rise to the
    above cause, stating
    the underlying cause
    on the lowest line.
    1 Cause of Death Interval between
    onset and Death
    A Acute respiratory distress syndrome 2 days
    B Viral Pneumonia 10 days
    C COVID-19 10 days
    D
    Other significant
    conditions
    contributing to death
    but not related to the
    diseases or
    conditions causing it.
    2 Coronary artery disease, Type 2 Diabetes, COPD

    Unfortunately the formatting of the Certificate does not come through but the intent is clear.

    My comments on this are;
    1. The certificate does not state whether Covid was suspected or confirmed (it might not matter anyway as the PCR test is not very accurate)
    2. In this particular instance the death was from respiratory failure, after a typical Covid type of of illness. The patient contracted Covid 10 days before death, they developed pneumonia (presumed viral) and then became very breathless for 2 days before dying.
    3. The other antecedent causes are listed last which are:Type 2 Diabetes, Coronary Artery Disease and COPD (Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease). Of these the COPD is probably the most relevant because the patient had poor lung function before hand.

    If the patient had been found dead in their bed in a Nursing Home in the morning a proper cautious medical practitioner would not have put Covid on the certificate, unless he/she had some knowledge about that. There should be a good reason to suspect Covid was involved.

    Consequently I am concerned that the Victorian Health Department has reclassified some old Nursing Home Deaths as Covid. Why should they do that?

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    Environment Skeptic

    I look forward to a more detailed post from jo on this.

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    • #

      Check out WA Virus Watch
      Week after week they do 600 + tests for influenza in WA and find 0 cases. Not one.

      See the extraordinary graph top of page 4. Watch the purple line. It’s week 33 and we’ve barely had a case or two of influenza for 16 weeks. The few we had since week 15 were probably returned travellers in quarantine.

      So right now, if we had a wave of Covid here would it not make sense for the doctors to assume that a death due to ILI was likely Covid?

      Obviously, this is not the case in all other states and places. But we are talking of WA.

      My understanding is that this is fairly normal practice during pandemics — people studying the incidence of different diseases find that during a major new attack of something highly infectious that most cases with similar symptoms are the new disease.

      But I’m interested in studies or data that give us more information on this. I suspect though that there will not be easy clarity either way. It will differ from state to state and even doctor to doctor to some degree.

      I believe X-rays are useful and blood oxy sats also — in identifying undiagnosed Covid. How dedicated the doctors are would make a big difference and if they are overwhelmed and run off their feet I expect they would have little time.

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    Environment Skeptic

    Peter C
    September 5, 2020 at 8:55 pm · Reply

    Covid and Death Certificates!

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    Damon

    “Why should they do that?”
    Because it fits the narrative. If we don’t ‘get on top of this, we’re all gonna die’

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    • #
      Environment Skeptic

      Hmmm…. Damon….no idea.. I am mainly interested in the science and new theories and developments (comment #19) and so the legalities are not really my concern although i find this very interesting in any case.

      “September 5, 2020 at 10:24 pm · Reply

      “Why should they do that?”
      “Because it fits the narrative. If we don’t ‘get on top of this, we’re all gonna die’ ”

      From wa.gov..

      Where a person is known to have suffered typical symptoms of COVID-19, such as fevers, cough, or breathing difficulties, during a COVID-19 pandemic, but has not been formally tested or diagnosed, then it is reasonable to “assume” the death was related to COVID-19 and should be recorded on the death certificate.

      All i can think of is that it is to simplify matters?

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    Damon

    A dictum long ignored ‘Bullshit baffles brains’

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  • #

    This post is beyond parody. Attributing a car crash death to covid because it causes fatigue and poor judgement? Does nothing else cause fatigue and poor judgement?

    Jo, I suggest you stay in bed all day, every day. That way, you won’t catch covid and won’t get killed in a car crash. I suspect the state premiers are getting your sort of advice. Health officials and experts are in large part responsible for this catastrophe.

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    • #

      David, I attributed nothing. I said it was possible, we’d never know for sure, and provided an example with data.

      Unless you have proof that poor sleep and illness does not increase the likelihood of fatal car accidents then I believe the parody is all yours.

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    Gabriel Pentelie

    Jo, you wrote earlier:
    “Influenza deaths in the US with full and free movement = 3,000 – 15,000 named deaths pa.”

    Utter poppycock. The average 2 standard deviation range of U.S. influenza deaths over the past 9 flu seasons (I’m using the info at the CDC link that “Ross” provided earlier) is … 23,000 – 54,000.

    IOW, the figures you cite above are as far off the mark as your categorical claim (in another thread a couple of weeks ago; reminder link at the bottom of this post) that the incubation period of COVID-19 is 2 weeks, when in reality that’s well outside the 2 standard deviation range (and is likely outside the THREE standard deviation range) thereof.

    Your taking such liberties with the stats is not only disappointing (deeply so for me, for I have been an admirer of your valiant battle against ALARMISM of the climate kind for years now, second only to Anthony Watts’s), but detrimental to your credibility relating to the matter currently at hand.

    Aforepromised reminder link:
    http://joannenova.com.au/2020/08/australians-wiped-out-the-flu-and-avoided-50000-other-cases-of-sickness-and-disease/#comment-2356329

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    • #

      Gabriel, I’m not taking any liberties with those stats. All sources cited on relevant posts.
      It appears you don’t realize I’ve already explained on the blog that the CDC count of influenza is a modelled burden of estimated deaths.

      Most people with influenza are not tested. Flu deaths are inflated — possibly in order to convince people to getting more vaccines.

      Read the post.

      http://joannenova.com.au/2020/05/beware-the-famous-flu-death-tally-is-highly-adjusted-and-coronavirus-is-still-10-times-worse/

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        Lucky

        Jo says, the CDC count is from a model based on estimates. Ok.
        The description applies for both prior and post August 2020 figures.

        The new CDC figures are (from memory)
        at least 9,210. At most 34,000. A wide range as could be expected.
        The old figure was 187,000.
        This difference should raise eyebrows, hackles, suspicions.

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        • #

          Lucky, please read this post (the one the comments are about). The old figure was 187,000, which is also the current figure, though the real figure may be higher.

          In 250 comments no one has any realistic reason to counter why the excess deaths will not contribute some cases to the covid death tally.

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        Gabriel Pentelie

        “Flu deaths are inflated …”

        You have no way of actually knowing that. Nobody does, including the sources you linked to. Hence, categorical quantitative statements of the “COVID is X to 10X worse than the flu” are unwarranted.

        Furthermore, it’s difficult not to notice the stark contrast between your ready willingness to accept as expanded a definition of what counts as a COVID death as possible (even toying with the idea of including car accidents that may have been caused by diminished mental acuity or physical reaction time and/or somesuch), while adopting the very opposite approach when it comes to flu.

        IOW, …

        While you argue (and, to a large extent, I agree) that both “OF Covid” and “WITH Covid” deaths should be counted, …

        … you (and the sources you prefer) basically argue that only “OF flu” deaths should be counted.

        That’s not intellectually consistent.

        Yet furthermore, …

        While you have no problem speculating about the degree to which Big Pharma may have been influencing official seasonal influenza cases/deaths counts upwards, …

        … you (and the sources you prefer) seem to have no such qualms when it comes to COVID.

        That’s not intellectually consistent, either.

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        • #

          Gabriel,

          Read the post http://joannenova.com.au/2020/05/beware-the-famous-flu-death-tally-is-highly-adjusted-and-coronavirus-is-still-10-times-worse/

          Then read the post on this thread.

          Then comment.

          The CDC admit flu deaths are modeled.

          You want me to compare modeled flu deaths with diagnosed positive Covid deaths (and ignore 94% of them) and pretend thats “intellectually consistent”.

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            Gabriel Pentelie

            No, I don’t want you to ignore 94% of COVID deaths. I stated, CLEARLY, that I largely agree with the approach that counts BOTH “OF Covid” AND “WITH Covid” deaths.

            What I DON’T agree with is the argument that you and the sources you prefer make, which is to only count deaths that are “OF influenza” and dismiss those that are “WITH influenza”.

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            • #

              Gabriel,

              Apologies. I misread. It’s my understanding that the 3,000 – 15,000 deaths a year of Flu in the US include both OF and WITH deaths for influenza.

              These are named patients who have influenza listed on their death certificates.

              The CDC then models other deaths to guesstimate how many of those are due to untested influenza, which certainly exists, but if I recall, they wrap in most cases of pneumonia, estimate the heart damage stats “due to influenza” as well and the number is multiplies higher.

              This would be like (I presume?) taking the covid tally and doing statistics to boost it up multiples above the death certificate listed tally.

              “As William Thompson of the CDC’s National Immunization Program admitted, influenza-associated mortality is “a statistical association … “

              In the case of Covid, wouldnt that be like doing a statistical expansion into the excess deaths category?


              “In the last six flu seasons, the CDC’s reported number of actual confirmed flu deaths—that is, counting flu deaths the way we are currently counting deaths from the coronavirus—has ranged from 3,448 to 15,620, which is far lower than the numbers commonly repeated by public officials and even public health experts.

              … we have to compare counted deaths to counted deaths, not counted deaths to wildly inflated statistical estimates. If we compare, for instance, the number of people who died in the United States from COVID-19 in the second full week of April to the number of people who died from influenza during the worst week of the past seven flu seasons (as reported to the CDC), we find that the novel coronavirus killed between 9.5 and 44 times more people than seasonal flu.”
              I accept the tested of and with deaths of Covid.

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                Gabriel Pentelie

                “Apologies. I misread.”

                No worries, Jo.

                ““As William Thompson of the CDC’s National Immunization Program admitted, influenza-associated mortality is “a statistical association … “”

                That quote snippet from William Thompson dates back to … 2004.

                Lots has happened since then. Not least being the fact that the CDC migrated to a new nationwide reporting system and a new methodology in … 2009 or thereabouts. Some details here:

                Why are the current estimates of influenza-associated deaths different from previous estimates?

                Previously, CDC periodically made estimates of flu deaths using a statistical model of data on deaths with respiratory and circulatory causes.  An August 27, 2010 MMWR report entitled “Updated Estimates of Mortality Associated with Seasonal Influenza through the 1976-2007 Influenza Season” (MMWR 2010; 59(33): 1057-1062.), provided estimates of the range of flu-associated deaths that occurred in the United States during the three decades from the 1976-1977 season to the 2006-2007 flu season. In that era, CDC estimated that flu-associated deaths ranged from a low of about 3,000 to a high of about 49,000 deaths.

                The previous range used to describe influenza-related deaths, from 3,000 to 49,000, was based on data from 30 influenza seasons from 1976 through 2007 used in a statistical model (1). The range described in the tables above, 12,000 to 79,000, is based on data from the 2010-2011 through 2017-2018 influenza seasons using a different mathematical model.

                While there are differences in methods used to estimate the deaths in the two time periods, other factors may also contribute to why some seasons have different numbers of influenza deaths than seen in the past, including changes in the way that death certificates are filed, changes in the age structure of the population, or changes in the prevalence of chronic medical conditions that put people at high-risk of influenza complications.

                Why did the death burden method change?

                CDC has made periodic estimates of deaths associated with influenza virus infections for five decades, initially relying on direct counts of deaths with influenza listed as a cause of death and then focusing on deaths with pneumonia or influenza listed as a cause. Recognizing that direct counts of deaths was underestimating the true burden, CDC turned to using statistical models. Initially, these methods relied on setting specific weeks during the winter and spring when influenza viruses circulated as times ‘at risk’. Increases above periodic, regular variations in deaths during these weeks ‘at risk’ were attributed to the circulation of influenza viruses, and often termed excess deaths. These statistical methods were used to estimate excess deaths that occurred from 1976-2007 (8) and more recently from 2005-2016 (9). Current estimates of flu-related deaths are now based on the mathematical model described above. Each approach, the statistical and the mathematical model, has its own strengths as well as limitations.
                The statistical methods require final US mortality records, which are not routinely available until 2-3 years after the date of an individual death. Thus, national vital statistics data cannot be used currently to estimate influenza-associated deaths in a near real-time manner.

                Because of these reasons, we have chosen to use a mathematical model that is based on FluSurv-NET, a strong surveillance platform of laboratory-confirmed influenza hospitalizations. We find that the mathematical model is straightforward and can be used to compare one season to another in a way that is simple, yet comprehensive.

                Why doesn’t CDC base its seasonal flu mortality estimates only on death certificates that specifically list influenza?

                Seasonal influenza may lead to death from other causes, such as pneumonia, congestive heart failure, or chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. It has been recognized for many years that influenza is underreported on death certificates and patients aren’t always tested for seasonal influenza infection, particularly the elderly who are at greatest risk of seasonal influenza complications and death. Some deaths – particularly among the elderly – are associated with secondary complications of influenza (including bacterial pneumonias). Influenza virus infection may not be identified in many instances because influenza virus is only detectable for a short period of time and/or many people don’t seek medical care until after the first few days of acute illness. For these and other reasons, statistical modeling strategies have been used to estimate seasonal flu-related deaths for many decades. Only counting deaths where influenza was included on a death certificate would be a gross underestimation of seasonal influenza’s true impact.”

                Link: https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/faq.htm

                That seems like a perfectly reasonable way to go about determining how many people may have died both “OF influenza” and “WITH influenza”. One that doesn’t justify the ascribing of nefarious motives that you and the sources you prefer (especially Lawrence Solomon, who, it seems to me, while apparently not an anti-vaxxer, does seem to lean somewhat in that direction, given my brief exploration of his other writings/activities over the years) so readily resort to.

                IOW, …

                There’s no reason to reject the 23K-54K U.S. flu deaths (averaged over 9 seasons) estimate range as a comparison to the 195K U.S. COVID death tally as of today. Unless one deems it really, really important to be able to state that “COVID is 10 to 44 times worse than the flu!!!”, as opposed to “COVID is about 4 to 9 times worse than the flu.”

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                Thanks for that detail Gabriel. Since I generally say “about ten times worse” I’ll probably stick to that for the moment. The ad hom about solomon doesn’t persuade me either way.

                So tell me this then, other viruses cause pneumonia, and pneumonia is one of the main causes of death. I am run off my feet for the next few days so can’t look it up, but I’d be more convinced if I saw a breakdown of all deaths due different viruses. I know the CDC will have it somewhere. I’m thinking of ones like metapneumovirus especially. I believe it causes nearly as many hospitalizations as influenza but was only discovered around 2001. I don’t think there is a vaccine yet. Is there any chance deaths due to metapnemovirus are being modelled into the influenza one? Is there much testing? Would anyone know if those deaths were used to help persuade people to get the flu vaccine? Could we tell?

                If the hospitalization rate was ballpark similar for metapnumovirus, then I would think it reasonable to estimate the death toll also to be similar?

                Widmer, Kyle; Zhu, Yuwei; Williams, John V.; Griffin, Marie R.; Edwards, Kathryn M.; Talbot, H. Keipp (2012-07-01). “Rates of Hospitalizations for Respiratory Syncytial Virus, Human Metapneumovirus, and Influenza Virus in Older Adults”. The Journal of Infectious Diseases. 206 (1): 56–62. doi:10.1093/infdis/jis309. ISSN 0022-1899. PMC 3415933. PMID 22529314.

                Then there is RSV, parainfluenza, etc.

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    Ross

    Now we have this. Note the original article was in the very left leaning NYT. I’m not a NYT subscriber so I cannot link but I did check that the article existed and it does.

    https://www.redstate.com/michael_thau/2020/09/03/ny-times-up-to-90-testing-positive-for-c19-virus-not-infectious-but-problem-actually-much-worse/

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    Choroin

    In my opinion, any statistical approach to assessing Covid impacts in an objective manner should start with Excess Mortality data collected by official national statistical agencies.

    If you look at the EU data collected across the continent during the outbreak, the excess mortality quickly shot past two standard deviations (compared with 10 year averaging) and then skyrocketed until emergency measures were implemented.

    Stating this fact alone has nothing to do with whether lock-down policies are correct or incorrect, it’s just a fact that this virus was clearly much worse than any flu we’ve seen in modern memory, especially because it comes from a novel group of viruses known to attack human and animal biology in ways not heavily studied from either prophylactic or clinical perspectives.

    If obese people can’t be counted, this alone would eliminate 40%+ of the US population, which is an absurd way of assessing impacts … take out asthmatics? … take out diabetics not in the obese category? … sounds a lot like climate ‘scientists’ attempting to massage a statistical outcome.

    As always Jo, you’re spot on but you’re getting those down votes because of people wrapping facts in politics to prop up their political persuasions.

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      Thank you Choroin. You are calm and exactly correct.

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      Kalm Keith

      Hi Choroin,

      I’ve read this a few times now and it is meaningful and points to highly relevant concepts that seem to be important to a non expert like me.

      My acceptance of that is total, but then the highlighted comment and last paragraph seem to make assumptions that aren’t on target.

      Many, like myself, seem to feel uncomfortable that the inner microscopic workings of the virus being very expertly discussed by Jo and others are being used to justify comments describing what might be happening in the world at large.

      Realistically we must consider that the environment plays a big part in how the virus will behave.

      Although there are potentially seven billion host “environments” for the virus, this fact seems to be ignored by people looking for a one size fits all guiding concept.

      Take Australia: most of us have been fortunate to have lived with beneficial vaccination programs from very early in life.

      Other countries will not have populations which have seen similar attention to vaccines.

      Their reaction to the current CV19 virus is possibly going to be different to vaccinated Australians.

      Someone has commented here that a good proportion of Victoria’s problem outbreak was from a relatively recent immigrant group. Possibly the vaccination history of this group makes them vulnerable to CV19.

      As a child I literally played in the dirt and suspect that this has given me immunity in some areas that is beneficial. The newer clean living cohort may be more vulnerable.

      I’m still trying to work out what’s behind gluten intolerance and peanut intolerance. An issue resulting from pregnancy?

      In summary, my concern is that theoretical microbiology doesn’t necessarily take into account the very important fact that some potential “hosts” will have more capacity to tolerate a challenge from CV19 than others.

      Italy and New York for example could not be considered to be homogeneous biological environments when the flux of visiting workers and residents poses serious concerns about immune system history of potential victims.

      Our comments are Not political in that sense, just looking at the bigger scientific picture that is all too relevant and confusing.

      KK

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    ren

    Although the mortality rate in COVID-19 is lower than that in SARS and MERS, numerous patients have acute lung injury (ALI) after infection [26, 32]. Similar to the pathological features of SARS and MERS, severe diffuse alveolar damage, such as extensive edema, hyaline membrane formation, inflammatory infiltrates, microthrombi formation, organization, and fibrosis, was also observed in COVID-19, but with more cellular fibromyxoid exudates in the alveoli and small airways [48, 49]. The role of the RAS and ACE2 in ARDS/ALI has drawn great attention since the outbreak of SARS in 2003. Clinical studies have found that ACE insertion/deletion polymorphism may be correlated with the severity of ARDS [50, 51]. High Ang-II levels in the lungs can increase vascular permeability and cause pulmonary edema [52, 53]. Several studies have revealed the protective effects of the ACE2/angiotensin-(1–7)/MAS axis in the lungs. It alleviates lung inflammation, fibrosis, and pulmonary arterial hypertension, as well as inhibiting cancer cell growth, tumor angiogenesis, and tumor metastasis [6, 54–56]. In different animal models of ALI, ACE2-knockout mice exhibited enhanced vascular permeability, increased lung edema, neutrophil accumulation, and marked worsening of lung function compared with wild-type control mice [56]. Injection of recombinant human ACE2 protein or AT1R blockers into ACE2-knockout mice could decrease the degree of ALI [56].
    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7356137/

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    Peter

    Nice spin Jo but the plain fact us that covid rarely kills healthy people. Of the 700 plus Australian deaths, only 4 were under 50 and none are under 30.

    So any unbiased person would have to conclude that licking down entire populations is absurd. It is people with Comorbidities that have to be quarantined and protected.

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    Peter

    Nice spin Jo but the plain fact us that covid rarely kills healthy people. Of the 700 plus Australian deaths, only 4 were under 50 and none are under 30.

    So any unbiased person would have to conclude that licking down entire populations is absurd. It is people with Comorbidities that have to be quarantined and protected.

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    ren

    It is not the virus itself that is dangerous to the heart, kidneys, liver and blood vessels, but the excess Angiotensin II in the body due to the virus attack.

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      ren

      This is a different mechanism to the cytokine storm that can occur in influenza.

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      ren

      The ACE II enzyme, which is an inhibitor of Angiotensin II, is responsible for all of this.

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      ren

      People with high blood pressure have high levels of Angitensin II in the body. Blocking the ACE II enzyme in these people will cause the blood vessels to become unsealed as Agiotnesin II levels will increase even more.

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        ren

        Sorry.
        ANGIOTENSIN

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          Thank you Ren. ACEII is one hell of a target for any virus.

          Does anyone know if any other viruses target it?

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            ren

            Thank you.
            “Similar to the pathological features of SARS and MERS, severe diffuse alveolar damage, such as extensive edema, hyaline membrane formation, inflammatory infiltrates, microthrombi formation, organization, and fibrosis, was also observed in COVID-19, but with more cellular fibromyxoid exudates in the alveoli and small airways. The role of the RAS and ACE2 in ARDS/ALI has drawn great attention since the outbreak of SARS in 2003.”

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              Ta. I see SARS1 and NL63 (a CCC) both use ACE2.
              https://jvi.asm.org/content/84/2/1198

              MERS seems to use DPP4 (is that T cells? Ouch)

              MERS-CoV engages the transmembrane dipeptidylpeptidase 4 (DPP4, also known as CD26) as the primary receptor (Cui et al., 2019, Song et al., 2019, Wang et al., 2013).

              Interstingly viral entry is a lot more complicated that just finding the right receptor. (same paper as the MERS quote.)

              Intriguingly, the viral cell entry always requires multiple transmembrane proteins in the target cell apart from the primary receptor (Chan et al., 2016, Chu et al., 2018, Cui et al., 2019). The coronavirus spikes are able to recognize a broad range of cell-surface molecules in addition to the designated receptors for entry. These molecules are called coreceptors or attachment factors, which have been reported to play critical roles in the viral propagation (Chan et al., 2016, Chu et al., 2018, Cui et al., 2019).
              https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S258900422030345X

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                Environment Skeptic

                From: https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.3109/02699052.2016.1163618?src=recsys&
                (traumatic brain injury)

                TBI represents a major health problem in the US, with 1.7 million cases, 275 000 hospitalizations and 52 000 deaths each year [34]; and neuropsychiatric sequalae are common, especially after severe injury [35]. It is now understood that cerebral damage after traumatic brain injury can occur in two stages: an initial stage where damage results from the external mechanical force and a secondary inflammatory stage where damage occurs after a cascade of processes involving cytokines such as interleukin (IL)-1β, IL-6 and tumour necrosis factor (TNF)-α [36]. The increases in cytokine levels in the brain can be massive, especially after severe TBI.

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                Not sure. Did you mean to reply to this sub thread or was it another one?

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                Environment Skeptic

                Cytokine storms are not very novel.

                The meteorology of cytokine storms, and the clinical usefulness of this knowledge

                From: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5495849/

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                Environment Skeptic

                From the link above:

                Introduction

                As previously discussed [1, 2], the term cytokine storm appears to have been first used to describe the chaotic pathophysiological state encountered during an acute graft-versus-host disease [3]. The term has caught the popular imagination, with >160,000 hits on a search engine.

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    yarpos

    thought this was an interesting piece on manintaining the fear

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    Rocket Rod

    Deary me…a mistake like NASA made.
    Time for this deadly virus lie to die forever and politicians face criminal charges, as if we’d be that lucky.

    https://www.rt.com/op-ed/500000-covid19-math-mistake-panic/

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      Kalm Keith

      The computer did it.

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      Lucky

      Rocket – thanks, that Dr Malcolm Kendrick makes sense to me.

      He gives the figure for virus deaths as a percentage of population as for Sweden 0.0058 %
      My calculations give the US figure as between 0.0033% and 0.0113%

      As mentioned, both the US (NY) and Sweden, and our Victoria, made serious, significant, and cruel errors in the treatment of the aged.

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