JoNova

A science presenter, writer, speaker & former TV host; author of The Skeptic's Handbook (over 200,000 copies distributed & available in 15 languages).


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Thursday Open Thread

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Thursday Open Thread, 7.9 out of 10 based on 15 ratings

203 comments to Thursday Open Thread

  • #
    Annie

    Ooh! It’s still Thursday too! :)

    41

  • #
    TdeF

    We now have only 6 infections reported for the country, 4 in Victoria and 2 in NSW.

    Not only can we look forward to zero soon, three weeks of zero and we have no virus. And as explained, when the second wave comes, we will be isolated. In 1918, the second wave was twice as deadly as the first and hit all age groups and both sexes unlike the first which was 90% men aged 20-50.

    There will be problems adjusting to a world with geographic restrictions but in other ways, with quarantine of only 14 days and testing, it will be only as isolated as it was before jet travel. Quarantine used to be 40 days but they had no testing.

    1312

    • #
      Chad

      Ishould have known it was too much to expect a covid free thread !
      …..but just 6 mins after the first open post ?.. FFS !
      What was so essential to post that in an “Open” thread rather than one of the many , many, other threads already chewing over covid related issues.?
      God help you/us if that is the best you can do for “boundary discipline” and social separation .!

      169

      • #

        The thread police are here.

        The truth is that if people stuck to what all those other thread were about there half the posts would disappear showing there is scope for hundreds of covid related posts that are off topic in those other threads.

        Why can’t they be here? Covid is on people’s minds and they might want to discuss the issue that concerns them on an open, free topic forum rather than buried in another topic’s thread.

        164

        • #
          Chad

          Oh !.. you mean you would not want to lose a covid topic issue inside a Covid specific thread ?
          Yes , i can see the level of logic in that idea !

          We all know why people jump onto the most recent thread ,..nomatter what the thread topic or relavence of the comment they want to make,…
          It simply to be “on the top of the pile”… the most “in view”. .!
          Its simple vanity from small minds.!

          1110

          • #
            TdeF

            Obviously Open has a different meaning now. Who would have guessed? Perhaps the first victim of CDS. Covid Derangement Syndrome.

            155

        • #
          Bill In Oz

          But G A it’s just real grumpy old men stuff.

          411

      • #
        Another Ian

        Going on my experience of late this would be deemed O/T on other current threads

        “I have found a Treatment and Vaccine tracker that may prove useful.
        https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/16DbPhF9OD0MHHtCR12of6yUcfiRzP_-XGkynEbnipds/edit#gid=2075421071

        https://chiefio.wordpress.com/2020/05/16/spain-wuhan-virus-ifr-1-16/#comment-129807

        A later comment says it can be added to his database which was linked previously

        Plus further down in comments

        https://www.foxnews.com/health/cdc-now-says-coronavirus-does-not-spread-easily-via-contaminated-surfaces

        20

        • #
          Another Ian

          “And for those who want reasons not to take HCQ, an even longer list of side effects:
          https://www.drugs.com/sfx/hydroxychloroquine-side-effects.html
          (mostly uncommon or incidence unknown)”

          https://chiefio.wordpress.com/2020/05/16/spain-wuhan-virus-ifr-1-16/#comment-129828

          22

          • #
            robert rosicka

            Another Ian I have been on a cocktail of prescription drugs over the last 12 years and the side effects claimed of each one were astounding .
            I take an anti sickness pill when on opioids that claim may grow breasts as a side affect .
            Opioids have many weird side effects including tinnitus .
            One other medication which was an anti psychotic (anti suicide) listed depression and suicide as side affects .
            There are a heap of different anti depressant drugs which also are used to relieve nerve pain but all the ones I tried listed depression as a side affect and one even caused symptoms of heart attack .
            Each medication reacts differently, some people will get side effects some won’t .

            80

            • #
              Another Ian

              rr

              Notice the lead-in to that reference:-

              “And for those who want reasons not to take HCQ, an even longer list of side effects:” ?

              Think it might be a dig at some of the msm headlining?

              40

              • #
                robert rosicka

                The MSM have been having a field day with HCQ you’re spot on .
                There is supposed to be a study somewhere on HCQ as a preventive for covid done in India .
                It was given to police supposedly with just under half taking it and the rest abstained but still trying to find accurate reports of it .

                30

          • #
            Sceptical Sam

            Well Ian, I’ve no doubt that the material you supply is part of the fake news and fake science that is being promulgated by both enemies of President Trump and the Big Pharma boyos who do not want to see a cheap and effective drug whip the ground out from under their massive money making schemes.

            So much so, that their Big Money friend Google removed a You-tube video that presented the effacacy of HCQ. (Since restored).

            More recently, Dr William O’Neill, a cardiologist in Detroit, who has prescribed the drug to multiple patients and “saw improvement in all of them”. However, O’Neil says:

            …people are scared to use the drug without any scientifically valid concern. We’ve talked with our colleagues at the University of Minnesota who are doing a similar study, and at the University of Washington. We’ve treated 400 patients and haven’t seen a single adverse event. And what’s happening is because of this fake news and fake science, the true scientific efforts are being harmed because people now are so worried that they don’t want to enroll in the trials.

            Another physician, Dr Jane Orient, the executive director of the Association of American Physicians and Surgeons as well as a clinical lecturer at the University of Arizona College of Medicine, urged viewers on the removed You-tube to “look at the money” when it comes to HCQ vs Remdesivir.

            “There’s no big profits made in hydroxychloroquine,” said Orient. “It’s very cheap, easy to manufacture, been around for 70 years. It’s generic. Remdesivir is a new drug that could be very expensive and very lucrative if it’s ever approved. So I think we really do have to consider there’s some financial interest involved here.”

            More than financial interests are invovled. There’s politics. And the politicians are looking after the interests of their donors.

            Now, which companies are the big donors?

            Follow the money.

            https://justthenews.com/nation/free-speech/youtube-censors-video-which-medical-doctors-said-hydroxychloroquine-might-help

            92

            • #
              Another Ian

              An interesting theory – but you don’t read Chiefio’s site do you?

              03

              • #
                Sceptical Sam

                What particular part of Chiefio’s site are you recommending I read?

                And, BTW, since you’re interested in side effects of long-prescribed and safe pharmaceuticals, here’s a list for you to contemplate on Aspirin:

                https://www.drugs.com/sfx/aspirin-side-effects.html

                See the similarity?

                70

              • #
                Another Ian

                The library system is back in action here. First delayed request was

                Mark Steyn “A disgrace to the profession: The world’s scientists – in their own words – on Michael Mann, his hockey stick and their damage to science Vol 1″

                What a read!

                30

            • #
              Another Ian

              Try the reply to rr above. The indexing system seems to have gone ack willie

              00

    • #
      GlenM

      I knew it thread hijacked by coronovirus tragics.

      63

  • #
  • #
    Annie

    We have silver birches of differing ages; some have shed their leaves already (the young ones I grew from seed), the older ones looking wonderful in all their golden autumn glory. One of them was very small at the time of the 2009 bushfires with most of the top part dead from the drought and heat. On my visit to our daughter in March 2009 (she lived here while we were back in England) I decided to try to rescue it. The top was cut off and a section of the main trunk kept for a stake. The two still alive side branches were tied more vertically to the old trunk and then fingers crossed! The plan was to keep one as the new trunk and cut off the weaker one of the two in due course.
    It didn’t happen! Both did well and now the old trunk has been overtaken and we have a beautiful bi-trunked silver birch, nearly as tall as the first one ever planted after we bought the property. It looks absolutely beautiful atm.

    131

    • #
      Bill In Oz

      Just don’t plant them close to the house.
      Their leaves clog the gutters
      And the seeds germinate everywhere
      Including in the leaves in the gutters

      59

      • #
        Bill In Oz

        Ahhh the joys of red thumbing..
        i’m sure it’s all that some folk have for joy in their lives.
        Meanwhile Annie I write from experience on silver birches.
        The seed will also grown in the gravel of a driveway if you don’t drive on it for a while.

        48

        • #
          AndyG55

          You can tell from how they grow in massive clumps in the wild, that they are a prolific self-breeder.

          10

        • #
          Annie

          Bill, I wasn’t one of the red thumbers.
          I am well aware of what trees like birches can do, but even more so, what certain wattles and eucalypts can do. When my husband cleans out the filter for our large tank, what he finds is a mass of soggy revolting gum leaves and silt, not birch leaves. The gums drop masses of leaves all year long and are a fire hazard in the warm dry weather, especially the massive river red gums along the road to our north. :(
          We had massive trouble with wattles and drains in Cyprus.

          00

        • #
          Annie

          I know, thankyou Bill.

          00

      • #
        Another Ian

        Bill

        Have you been hit by the “Silver Birch Society”?

        My experience with leaves in gutters guarantees none of them were mine.

        Bottle trees aren’t bad at gutter problems either.

        10

    • #
      Roy Hogue

      Annie,

      Your property sounds like a dram. I wish I could get to Oz to see it with all those silver birch trees coming to life in the spring.

      10

      • #
        Annie

        You would be most welcome Roy. I planted Ice Follies daffodils around the birches and hope to try a few more bulbs. I love the spring bulbs. Unfortunately the possums and/or the wombats dig them up and if the daffodils succeed in reaching flowering stage, the sulphur-crested thugs (cockatoos) decapitate them unless I put some netting around. This does somewhat detract from the overall look of it! There is a wine magnolia growing near the smaller birches which flowered nicely now that it’s grown a bit.
        I wish now I had planted more oaks too. I have a horsechestnut grown from the old tree that was by the police station in Marysville until the fires eleven years ago. It used to put out a fine crop of conkers each year and collecting those that had fallen outside the fence was a favourite pastime! I now have the ‘grandchildren’ of that tree as my tree has produced conkers and there are baby trees for interested takers. Bonsai might be the go with some of those!
        Nice to think of something other than certain virii/global climate whatever! :)

        10

  • #

    OK.. at the risk of being first. Here are a couple of papers. The first is to illustrate a point I tried to make regarding that long and detailed analysis by nerd etc reported by Jo that was positing that the corona virus is man made. This paper in no way deals with that issue specifically not is it a refutation.

    https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.13.091652v1

    The point is that nerd used some pretty basic substitution models and evolutionary assumptions that lead to the subsequent conclusions. Papers like this one show that what look like unlikely or rare types of events can actually be match observed patterns of substitutions.

    Second paper is just of interest regarding the prospects of a vaccine actually working. There will be a lot of research like this being reported in the next couple of months. Yes, including rigorous studies of therapies. Some huge international efforts are nearing a stage where they can report statistically significant results – many will still be ongoing but given the urgency will have refereed early data.

    https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.13.092619v1

    54

    • #
      Peter C

      including rigorous studies of therapies. Some huge international efforts are nearing a stage where they can report statistically significant results – many will still be ongoing but given the urgency will have refereed early data.

      That is good to hear. The studies seemed to take a long time to get going considering the urgency of the situation.

      40

      • #

        It requires weeks of sampling of people who’ve had the infection so a time lag is not just unavoidable, it is part of the experimental design. Add to this coordinating the research and validating and standardising methods the data analysis, it is remarkably quick.

        20

        • #
          el gordo

          Stunning Vaccine

          ‘Stunning research suggests cannabis strains can wipe out 70 per cent of coronavirus cells as new trials boost hope a vaccine really can work and swimmers told it’s okay to get back into the water.’ Herald Sun

          10

  • #
    Robber

    And virus free, tick, tick tick.
    For something completely different, I took a look at OpenNEM to see how our electricity generation mix has changed over the years.
    Back in 2011, total generation 205 TWhr. In 2015, 201 TWhr, in 2019 205 TWhr.
    In 2011, % mix coal/gas/hydro/wind/solar: 79/11/6/3/1.
    In 2015, 75/10/7/5/3.
    In 2019, 68/9/7/8/8.

    70

    • #
      RickWill

      Intermittents gained 8% in 4 years. Do the math – that is 2%/yr. So one could make a forecast that in 42 years it will be 100%. However one would be wrong because the wind and sun are not always available. In fact they are both more often unavailable than available.

      Pushing above 30% intermittent generation is impossible without massive energy storage schemes. Then one begins to see some serious expenditure; not the fringe stuff like the wind and solar generators.

      132

    • #
      Graeme No.3

      Do NOT read today’s Australian as the John Durie article may cause apoplexy.
      He seems to think that wind and solar will be powering us by 2025. I doubt that my comment will survive moderation.

      I see lately that the Hydrogen economy has resurfaced. I thought that it had been laid to rest in the 90′s but it appears that some people never learn.
      It goes
      Renewables are cheap (except they aren’t)
      Excess electricity from them can be used to produce hydrogen cheaply (except that the efficiency is low so the cost gets higher).
      We have lots of brown coal which can be used to generate hydrogen (except the yield is 7-8% and the rest is CO2).
      The CO2 can be sequested cheaply and safely (please submit names of actual processes working. Write report with textacolor on back of postage stamp?).
      Hydrogen burns in air to give heat without emitting CO2 (but it does produce some nitrogen oxides, like diesels. And in any case, what proof has ever been seen showing that CO2 causes much global warming?)

      290

  • #
    RickWill

    POTUS Trump has put the UN World Health Organisation on notice. They have 30 days to reply to the linked letter dated 18 May:
    https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/Tedros-Letter.pdf

    The letter is a catalog of WHO failings resulting in the CV19 pandemic. It make a pointed remark about the WHO being dependent on China and ends with this condition on funding.

    if the World Health Organization does not commit to major substantive improvements within the next 30 days, I will make my temporary freeze of United States funding to the World Health Organization permanent

    US defunding the WHO would hit the number of UN administrators feeding from this trough; maybe salaries as well.

    350

    • #
      Sceptical Sam

      I’ll be interested to see whether the WHO kowtows to President Trump and gives him a response within the stipulated period.

      Massive loss of face if it does meet the deadline.

      Stupidity if it doesn’t.

      110

      • #
        RickWill

        US provides a big slice of the UN funding across all activities.

        Funding for the UN Agenda 2030 for Sustainable Development is just noise right now. Without US stepping up it is a waste of time. CV19 has put a massive clamp on other countries standing up to replace the loss of the US on so-called “Climate” funds.

        90

  • #
    Chad

    New Technology investment roadmap paper released..
    Nuclear is on the list !

    The Morrison government has flagged examining “emerging nuclear technologies” as part of Australia’s energy mix in the future in a new discussion paper kicking off the process of developing its much-vaunted technology investment roadmap.

    Facing sustained pressure to adopt a 2050 target of net zero emissions, pressure it is continuing to resist, the government plans instead to develop the roadmap as the cornerstone of the Coalition’s mid-century emissions reduction strategy.

    The new framework will identify the government’s investment priorities in emissions-reducing technologies for 2022, 2030 and 2050, although the paper makes clear the government will only countenance “incentivising voluntary emissions reductions on a broad scale” – not schemes that penalise polluters.

    Angus Taylor says it is not Australian government policy to achieve net zero emissions by 2050

    90

    • #
      Chad

      A summary of the main points here..
      https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/may/21/new-nuclear-technologies-to-be-examined-in-planning-australias-energy-mix

      Including this factoid ..

      This week the government has signalled its intention to use the existing $2.5bn emissions reduction fund to support CCS projects – a move championed by Australia’s oil and gas industries. The new paper says the geo-sequestration of carbon dioxide “represents a significant opportunity for abatement in export gas” – nominating the Gorgon project as a case in point. Growth in emissions in Australia is largely driven by fugitive emissions from the booming LNG export sector.

      40

      • #
        Kalm Keith

        I heard a comment by Angus last night as part of an ABCCC discussion. The comment and associated discussion was sickening.

        There is No scientific validity to the argument that atmospheric CO2, especially the human Origin component, is capable of influencing air temperature.

        It is beyond crazy, and given that the concept is used worldwide to endorse the placement of huge quantities of cash into mitigation projects around the world, Extremely Troubling for any student of the concept of Democracy.

        We are Slaves: and it’s time we acknowledged that fact.

        KK

        80

      • #
        Kalm Keith

        I heard a comment by Angus last night as part of an ABCCC discussion. The comment and associated discussion was sickening.

        There is No scientific validity to the argument that atmospheric CO2, especially the human Origin component, is capable of influencing air temperature.

        It is beyond crazy, and given that the concept is used worldwide to endorse the placement of huge quantities of cash into mitigation projects around the world, Extremely Troubling for any student of the concept of Democracy.

        We are Slaves: and it’s time we acknowledged that fact.

        KK

        20

  • #
    • #
      TdeF

      Hypocrisy is the stock in trade of the media. As we know from the televised show with Blaisey Ford testifying against the appointment of Judge Kavanagh with no credible evidence or witnesses at all but Tara Read’s case is fully documented even to lodging a formal complaint which Joe Biden is hiding. And she worked for Joe Biden.

      92

      • #
        TdeF

        And it was never pointed out, but Ford was a major consultant for pharmaceutical companies specializing in the abortion drug RU-486, a billion dollar earning drug threatened by Kavanagh’s appointment. It was felt that as a Constitutional law expert he might reverse the Federal ruling on the basis that the Federal government should not be making Constitutional rulings on such things. He would be right.

        Blaisey Ford had authored and coauthored many papers on the subject and worked as a consultant. Plus she was caught out ly*ng many times. And trained at last one person on how to pass a lie detector test. But Tara Read is clearly not to be believed?

        I cannot see how Joe Biden can keep a straight face on this one.

        112

        • #
          Orson

          If Read or dementia does not kill off his candidacy, corruption involving pay-offs from China or Ukraine (involving his son or not), will.

          Now, the Ukraine investigation is getting hot again, involving their domestic politics.

          50

      • #
        Bill In Oz

        TdeF
        Obama is now leading the Dimocrat campaign.
        And will I think pull off a landslide
        Biden is just the nominee.
        Hiding in his basement
        Surprised that he might win the election for POTUS.

        38

        • #
          Sceptical Sam

          Biden is more likely a dean man walking.

          He’ll be replaced before November.

          62

          • #
            Sceptical Sam

            Dead man walking.

            41

          • #
            Bill In Oz

            The key question is who the Dems. VP nominee is.
            An Obama mate perhaps ?

            Biden might be ‘encouraged’ to gracefully retire from ill health
            after his surprise win.

            36

            • #
              TdeF

              The byelections in California and Wisconsin were easy wins for the Republicans. That has not been the case for 20 years.
              You will be very suprised. The media are not telling the real story. Donald Trump is very popular. Especially with his view that their misery is
              a product of a Chinese virus and Democratic shennanigans. Two impeachments. And Biden telling them the Chinese are not a threat. No one believes him.
              Not even his own supporters. As for #metoo. It is dead. Biden is only the candidate because Sanders was unelectable.

              121

            • #
              Orson

              Minnesota Senator Amy Klobichar is being vetted for Veep, according to reports.

              She makes a much more attractive and inoffensive face for the Left to use. However, reports from her office have long indicated a woman who’s entitled temperament is just like Hillary’s, ie, abuse and accuse the help without mercy!

              20

    • #
      OriginalSteve

      Speaking of which. NY has had enough it seems…..

      https://nypost.com/2020/05/20/end-new-york-citys-lockdown-now/

      “By prolonging the coronavirus shutdown long after its core mission was accomplished, Gov. Andrew Cuomo and Mayor Bill de Blasio have plunged tens of thousands of New Yorkers into poverty.

      “It needs to end. Now.

      “In mid-March, we were told we have to endure a lockdown to ensure that hospitals didn’t get overrun. We did. The hospitals were not overwhelmed. We turned the Javits Center into a hospital. We didn’t need it. We brought in a giant Navy ship to treat New Yorkers. We didn’t need it.

      50

      • #
        OriginalSteve

        Question – does an RNA vaccine effectively perform genetic engineering?

        As I understand it, a RNA vaccine will control what our cells do but may stay in our DNA for ever down through multiple generations.

        As such RNA vaccines are human experimentation….

        No thanks.

        00

  • #
    Another Ian

    “Will beef survive? ‘It has to’, global conference told”

    https://www.beefcentral.com/news/will-beef-survive-it-has-to/

    70

    • #
      TdeF

      Of course just as coal is the first Green target, not petrol or diesel or gas, the beef target will soon shift to chicken and pork. Fish will be last, but as we have seen from the film Madagascar, lions can live on grubs not zebra. It’s a Green fantasy world. And the Chinese are having none of it, but no one criticizes them.

      102

    • #
      StephenP

      Why, when it is regarded as sustainable to harvest trees and burn them when it takes 80 years to sequester the CO2 emitted, is it not OK to grow grass and harvest it via cattle when the methane emitted is sequestered in 8 years. As long as the number of cattle remains constant we will have reached a steady state where methane from cattle is concerned where emissions equal sequestration.

      130

      • #
        TdeF

        Yes, it’s not science. It’s the anti everything industry. They would wipe out a species to prevent them being eaten.

        112

    • #
      yarpos

      Media driven BS. During the panic buying meat sold out. The full selection of vegan products sat on the shelf. Once again a BS narrative and everyone doing contortions for a noisy minority.

      40

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  • #

    Okay, music Post y’all!

    So then, just what is it about Abbey Road?

    The actual address, not the album.

    The first thing you think of is in fact that album by The Beatles, but the actual Studio that album was named after has produced some of the finest music, and musicians of all time, and that also goes for the people who go towards the production of that music.

    One of those behind the scenes people was (still is) Alan Parsons, who started work there at age 18 as an assistant engineer, and in fact his first credit was for that Famed Beatles album. He went on to engineer for Wings, The Hollies, Al Stewart, Pilot and Pink Floyd, starting with Atom Heart Mother in 1969. Some might (wrongly) say he reached his peak with The Dark Side Of The Moon in 1973, his first Grammy nomination, and he didn’t win the award. Because that album was absolutely humungous, he was asked back to engineer what is in my opinion Floyd’s best album, Wish You Were Here, and inexplicably he declined the offer, thinking he would like to go out on his own. While working on his own project, he then did albums for The Hollies etc, and in 1976, he released that experimental Concept album, Tales Of Mystery And Imagination (Edgar Allan Poe). Knowing I was a Floyd fan, my ‘record guy’ put me onto the album within days of its release here in Oz. No one had heard of Parsons really, so the album only got a minor cult following at the start. That original album and all its extra packaging is now a bot of a collectors item.

    His following grew with the release of his second album I Robot, and from then he always sold pretty well. I have five of his vinyls.

    The song I have selected for today is from his third album Pyramid. It’s titled The Shadow Of A Lonely Man. It’s almost always the case that I got hold of an album and liked a song on that album more than the one released as a Single, and that was again the case with this album, as this is just a beautiful song, and here it is sung by his good friend, John Miles, who also sand some of the songs on that first album.

    Alan Parsons was always an unlucky loser at those Grammy Awards, with nominations spanning 45 years, but he always had Randy Newman to hide behind. Until Randy Newman finally won a Grammy, he (Randy Newman) was the most nominated artist NEVER to win a Grammy. When he finally did win the first of his Grammys, that meant Alan Parsons took over that unwanted distinction, and it was always thought it would remain like that, with 12 nominations without a win, until he finally did win his Grammy in 2019 for the re-release of his Eye in The Sky – 35th Anniversary release.

    Link to Shadow Of A Lonely Man

    Tony.

    PostScript – Incidentally, Dark Side now has 947 weeks in total on The Rolling Stone 200 Albums chart, and still occasionally gets back into the Top 100, after 47 years, so far and away higher than any other album. Imagine the royalties on that little baby.

    40

    • #
      Greg in NZ

      Tony, a school/surfing buddy of mine was given the LP of Tales of Mystery and Imagination for his 15th birthday by his parents – cool parents!

      I was there on the day he received it, and we played it and played it all that afternoon and into the night. Forty-four years later, I still play it, although in its digital version on my Mac.

      And lest we forget, Storm Thorgerson’s (Hipgnosis) amazing surrealist album & inner-booklet artwork: they don’t make ‘em like that anymore. Chur chur!

      40

      • #
        Bill In Oz

        Sometimes the art work & the liner lyrics were
        What I bought the LP’s for.

        33

      • #

        Play side two, the 16 minutes of The Fall of the House of Usher.

        When I got back to my room after buying the album, and put it on the deck, I sat in my bean bag with a set of Harmon Kardon headphones on, and played it at a comfortably loud volume.

        Part the way through is the arrival of the storm. You hear that crack of lightning, and then the thunder rolls from one headphone across the top of your head and into the other headphone. It’s just such wonderful engineering to get that sort of perfection for the rolling thunder of the storm, and then the heavy rain sets in.

        It’s an amazing sequence really, and you just get lulled off by the diminishing and gentle rolling music, quietly down ….. and then that lightning cracks and you get such a start.

        Every time I hear that it does the same.

        One other song on the album I like, well all of them really, is a tale of outright revenge, inspired by a short story of the same name from that novel of short stories, Tales of Mystery and Imagination by Edgar Allan Poe, The Cask Of Amontillado, shown at this link and also sung by John Miles.

        Tony.

        30

  • #
    Peter C

    Here is something I have wondered about. Has anyone else noticed?

    The overall mortality of Covid19 as a proportion of closed cases (ie deaths plus recoveries) is currently 14% worldwide. It was 20% a few weeks ago.
    Yet the proportion of severe cases is only 2% with 98% mild.

    How is it that only 2% are severe yet 14% die?

    In Australia the percentage of severe cases is 2% (same as worldwide) and 1.4% die.

    61

    • #
      Strop

      Maybe people are dying with mild symptoms. i.e. They suddenly die of a blood clot while appearing mild, or become severe and die too quickly to be admitted to hospital and recorded as severe.

      The other aspect is you’re talking about a death rate as a percentage of closed cases, but the percentage of severe (2%) is based on open cases.

      31

    • #
      TdeF

      My understanding is that the 2% is of all Wu Flu infections of whom about 20% are serious and 10% hospitalized and maybe 2% on ventilators. The 14% is of those people hospitalized, so it is 14% of 20% or 2.8% of whom half die. Anyway, different bases. Typical when people throw % around.

      At least 50% of those on ventilators die. It is a last resort appropriate for pneumonia but so many suffer from clots as in a blood disease. And the virus attacks the transport mechanism displacing oxygen, like carbon monoxide. And then the high blood pressure which explodes the lungs or causes heart failure. It is a disastrous disease.

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      sophocles

      To: PeterC @ 13:

      I think you’re overlooking the fact that Feb-March is their (the Northern Hemisphere’s or The Rest of The World’s) Sickness Season — the Dark time of the year when all the vitamin D is deep in Deficient, and Covid 19 is not the only corona virus in circuation. Some of those deaths could have been brought on by an influenza.

      We got off lightly here Down Under for two reasons: first, it wasn’t our Sickness Season (that’s yet to come in August and early Sept). Secondly, because we were fresh out of our Summer, we had everything in our favour — higher levels of vitamin D through the population(s) and, especially, sunshine.

      Everybody seems to forget/ignore the northern and southern hemispheres/seasons being six months or half a year out of step with each other.

      00

  • #
    Ari Okkonen

    I analyzed North-Atlantic sea-surface temperatures for 160 years and found no warming correlated to atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration.

    Increased concentration of carbon dioxide in atmosphere seems to have only negligible effect, if any, on North Atlantic sea surface temperature. This suggests that warming effect of CO2 on global temperatures may not be very strong, either, because temperatures of sea surface and atmosphere are strongly connected. Finding is based on analysis of data set “N. Atlantic SST averages, unsmoothed & not detrended (1856 to present)” from NOAA website. Linear combination of linear trend, sine shaped cycle, and exponential (τ = 50 a) is determined to minimize mean squared deviation from measured yearly mean temperatures. Resulting model combination had annual increase of 0.003 K/a, amplitude of sine shaped 63 a cycle +/- 0.18 K, and an exponential function for response to increasing CO2 concentration having negligible value of -0.014 K for 2018 temperatures. Based on control system theory, the effectively non-existent exponential shaped warming response of North-Atlantic SST to exponential shaped increment of the logarithmic warming effect of atmospheric CO2 concentration strongly suggests that warming effect of increased CO2 to atmosphere may be negligible in general.

    Increasing Carbon Dioxide Concentration in Atmosphere Has Negligible Effect on North Atlantic Sea Surface Temperature

    220

    • #
      Bill In Oz

      Then clearly you have mistreated the data cruelly
      And should be investigated for that abuse.
      Sarc/

      54

    • #
      Greg in NZ

      Ari, you’ve aged remarkably well “for 160 years”. :-)

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    • #
      Kalm Keith

      Good!

      41

    • #
      Kalm Keith

      Air, a few days ago Peter C put up a question relating to the connection between ocean temperature and atmospheric CO2 levels.

      I went looking online and all I found was a disconnected mess that seemed to be pointing in one direction and that was away from theoretical calculation and towards direct observation only.

      There are so many factors involved that theoretical calculation of the ocean/air interface cannot be accurately carried out for CO2/ocean equilibrium.

      Your work was interesting.

      10

    • #
      Orson

      Are there any good long-term measured SST data? If so, it’s news to me.

      10

      • #
        Ari Okkonen

        Th links to 160 years of North Atlantic SST data and other sources are in my paper. The link to the paper is at the end of my posting above: “Increasing Carbon…”.

        00

        • #
          sophocles

          Congratulations: you’ve almost completed the Northern Hemisphere (which is of only passing concern to those of us who are denizens of the Southern Hemisphere). Do the Northern Pacific and the Arctic Oceans all agree with the North Atlantic?

          If I remember my geography at all, much of the North Atlantic is dependent on the heat conveyer out of the Carribbean — that hot Gulf Stream.

          Good job, but there’s more to do.

          All our (the Southern Hemisphere) weather (and hence climate) is heavily influenced by Antarctica. That’s where our cold comes from … If you look at a globe, you’ll see the Southern Hemisphere has a lot more ocean than the Northern Hemisphere. That shapes our weather and from that, our climate. It doesn’t matter where in the south you are, it’s still a direct straight line between you and Antarctica, with almost no land in between.

          Having completed your survey of the Boreal region(s), how about doing the Austral ones? What does the South Atlantic have to say or the South Pacific? Or the Indian Ocean? Or the Southern Ocean? Or all of them combined? (That’s way bigger than the itsy bitsy North Atlantic and more significantly more important to us).

          That way, we’ll have a complete set, oh joy!

          10

  • #
    el gordo

    Gallup has the virus top of the list for people in the US concerned about the future.

    https://news.gallup.com/poll/309038/covid-quickly-becomes-important-problem.aspx

    Climate Change is in the basement.

    50

  • #
    Strop

    Apologies if this has been posted previously, or if this link is of no interest.

    You may recall that ABC staff were communicating about starting a Climate Crisis staff group. Which had the aim:

    To gather together the brains trust of ABC staffers to develop ways to report on and inform Australians about the climate crisis using a solutions journalism approach.
    To report back to ABC Management our ideas and strategies for responding to the climate crisis both internally and externally.

    Then, last November, Ita Buttrose supposedly put an end to the idea of staff doing that. But it seems staff continued to communicate on the matter for a couple more months as shown in the emails obtained by the IPA under FOI.
    Here’s a link to the email bundle. Names in emails are redacted, but the content of emails is shown.

    That’s our ABC. Independent and impartial of course. And clearly staff run, not management.

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    • #
      Strop

      I should add, there’s nothing particularly riveting in the emails.

      60

    • #
      yarpos

      Its clearly alive and well, last nights ABC coverage of the hovernments energy review was pretty blatantly RE propaganda.

      20

  • #
    Ken

    While we’re in lock-down let’s consider other things that need fixing:
    Glaring Gaps in Metrication
    Despite the metric system being initiated in France over 200 years ago and introduced progressively in most countries since then, there still remains a stubborn attachment to some units from the old systems.

    In Australia the conversion commenced in 1971 and was completed in a decade.

    Britain has been dithering with a half-hearted conversion for three decades: imperial units are officially used to specify journey distances (miles), vehicle speeds (miles per hour) and the sizes of returnable milk containers, beer and cider glasses (ounces). Imperial units are also often used to describe body measurements and vehicle fuel economy. Fresh fruit and vegetables are also sold by the pound.
    What a mess!

    The United States is one of only three countries (the others being Myanmar and Liberia) that have not officially adopted the metric system as the primary means of weights and measures.
    International trade has forced virtually all manufacturers to go metric (even car makers in USA)
    There are even more important issues in air and sea travel. Knots and nautical miles are still used even though the ships and aircraft are measured in metres. Wind speed is commonly referred to in knots instead of the logical km/hr and aircraft altitude is normally measured in feet, not metres. It’s all very confusing especially when pilots and air traffic controllers of different nationalities/languages are trying to understand each other.
    Isn’t it about time that the international bodies controlling air and sea navigation initiated regulations that mandated distances in kilometres, altitudes in metres, and speeds in km/hr. The changeover period would need careful management but the end result would reduce confusion and enhance security and safety for everyone.

    60

    • #
      Ian Hill

      A space mission to Mars once failed because the Yanks were using yards and their European partners were using metres. No-one realised the difference until it started failing.

      You couldn’t make this stuff up about this stuffup!

      90

      • #
        Another Ian

        Try the catch with half inch UNC and Whitworth threads

        UNC 13 threads per inch

        Whitworth 12 threads per inch

        And metric also has a shandy of pitches ISO and non-ISO

        00

    • #
      robert rosicka

      There was a passenger jet that crash landed after the pilot mistook gallons for litres or pounds for kilos I can’t remember which .

      20

  • #
    Deplorable Lord Kek

    In Sydney, the Berejiklian wrecking ball rolls on.

    The latest victim is the 180 year old Royal Oak Hotel that ‘had’ to be demolished to make way for her utterly useless light rail project.

    41

  • #
    noisemarine

    Does anyone know how James Cook University’s appeal against Dr Peter Ridd is going? Considering many universities are considering staff losses and pay reductions, it would seem additionally frivolous to continue with it given the million dollar cost estimate.

    140

    • #
      Strop

      I received an email update this arvo, from the IPA. Part of which says:

      The appeal hearing will take place on Tuesday and Wednesday next week.

      It will be heard by the Federal Court and the hearing will be held remotely via video link. In the interest of open justice, the court may allow members of the public to observe court proceedings via the internet.

      So, if you are interested in watching Peter’s appeal hearing, you can ask for the court’s permission by following these steps:

      1. Check that you have the Microsoft Teams software installed. If not, you can download it via this link: https://www.microsoft.com/en-au/microsoft-365/microsoft-teams/download-app

      2. Send an email to the judge’s associate at [email protected] with the following text:

      Dear Associate

      I write concerning QUD567/2019 James Cook University v Ridd and refer to National Practitioners and Litigants Guide To Online Hearings And Microsoft Teams (v2).

      I would like to observe, by Microsoft Teams, the appeal. I undertake to: (a) remain silent and hidden (ie microphone on mute and camera disabled); and (b) not to record the proceedings.

      I respectfully request a link to attend. My email address for the purpose of receiving a link is [YOUR EMAIL ADDRESS]

      Yours faithfully

      [YOUR NAME]

      3. Wait to receive an email from the court providing you with a link and instructions on how to watch the proceedings.

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  • #
    Sceptical Sam

    “The Lancet” needs to take its own advice:

    “Americans must put a president in the White House come January, 2021, who will understand that public health should not be guided by partisan politics.”

    Science in the UK it seems has well and truly become Political Science.

    First the Royal Society. Now “The Lancet”

    No wonder the UK is in such a mess.

    https://www.thelancet.com/action/showPdf?pii=S0140-6736%2820%2931140-5

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  • #

    Nullius in verba.
    h/t Socrates.

    31

    • #
      Another Ian

      Beth

      The current crop have done us a service by pointing out that you apply that even to Royal Societies

      20

    • #

      Ian …’n what a let down- yr Royal Society, alack, caving in re its raison d’etre. Sent Captain Cook to the far side of the globe to ascertain the facts, ‘take with ye pen and inke’ in the days when it was loyal to its motto, “nullius in verba.”

      20

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    Another Ian

    “Adam Bandt (& ors) want death certificates to include “climate change” ”

    https://www.michaelsmithnews.com/2020/05/adam-bandt-ors-want-death-certificates-to-include-climate-change.html

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    • #
      TdeF

      I can assure you, Adam Bandt does not believe a word of it. He wants revolution and communism. Being Green is the means to an end. And a salary of $283,600 a year for st*pid stuff. It sure beats having a real job, which would be hard for Adam.

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      • #
        Kalm Keith

        That number has a hidden meaning;

        “$283,600″.

        When pulled apart and interpreted, the numbers tell us that The world has gone totally stark raving Mad.

        KK

        21

      • #
        Another Ian

        TdeF

        “Adam Bandt does not believe a word of it. He wants revolution and communism.”

        Poor student of history or he’d have a better idea of the fate of Adam Bandt’s then

        00

    • #
      Reed Coray

      Talk about meaningless drivel. If “climate change” can be added to the list of “causes of death,” then I request that we add to that list the indisputable leading cause of death: “birth.” Everyone who is born will or has died, and no one dies if they’re not born–ergo birth causes death.

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    UK-Weather Lass

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/21/did-the-uk-government-prepare-for-the-wrong-kind-of-pandemic

    A look at the way strategy building for infectious disease control may have affected the way the UK Government responded to SARS-CoV-2. It fails to mention the move away from local English public health authorities coordinating local resources to a centralised PHE in 2012/13 which is, in my opinion, a glaring omission from the article.

    Perhaps the scientific advisors neglected to consult the local authority view of preparedness for an influenza pandemic since the inception of PHE and the wholesale change of focus. That would be glaring failure of ministers and their advisers since local public health expertise is important in any disease outbreak especially as so many experts said centralisation was a mistake at the time.

    Perhaps the most recent higher levels of excess deaths from these annual influenza events were insufficient to trouble ministers or raise concerns among them and their scientific advisors, but it does strike me as very odd that things like local test regimes, test processing laboratories, and track and trace ability have all been very poorly organised, coordinated and dealt with by the now centralised and Government controlled PHE. The same can be argued about the PPE mess too, where there seems to have been a complete breakdown in maintaining stocks, tracking those stocks, and logistics in getting them where they were needed.

    On the plus side antigen tests are starting next week for health service workers and Johnson has promised track and trace would be up and running on 1st June, despite so many training and other issues with the outsourced companies taking on this work, including their advice to trainees to find out how to deal with a bereaved person via a YouTube search… What could possibly go wrong …

    20

  • #
    el gordo

    High speed rail in a state near you.

    ‘An Australian state is continuing with its plans to participate in China’s signature infrastructure drive regardless of opposition from Canberra, amid growing divisions between state and federal leaders over how to handle relations with Beijing.

    ‘Victoria’s bid to sign a road map for investment under China’s Belt and Road Initiative within weeks comes as state and national government figures clash over Canberra’s handling of escalating trade tensions with Beijing.’ SCMP

    21

    • #
      Bill In Oz

      I guess they could build a high speed rail to Wodonga on the river Murray
      but here is a moderately fast train to it already.

      ;-)

      34

      • #
        Another Ian

        Bill

        There was a thread here

        http://coyoteblog.com/

        on traveling on the TGV in France from which you could suspect that passenger use was inversely proportional to speed of train.

        He also posts on the light rail project in Phoenix Az for anyone who is interested in how such projects eventuate

        10

  • #
    joseph

    Here’s an interesting article on the 1918 flu . . . . . and it’s not too long . . . . easy to read . . . . I’m curious to know what you might think of it Bill . . .

    https://www.berkeley.edu/news/media/releases/2000/10/25_flu.html

    11

    • #
      Bill In Oz

      Some years ago a party of virus researchers exhumed the body of a woman buried in the frozen tundra of Alaska.
      They wanted to find the virus which caused the n1918-19 pandemic.
      And they succeeded.
      They discovered live traces of the pandemic virus..related to the H1N1 type I think.
      No indications of TB were discovered.

      23

      • #
        joseph

        Ok, that’s one woman . . . . what about the other millions of men and women?

        03

        • #
          Bill In Oz

          That’s the interesting bit.
          All the bodies of those 100 million people are gone
          Decomposed or cremated.
          But in Alaska bodies were buried in the permafrost ground
          And so preserved.
          There are other bodies buried there in that burial site.
          But only the one was exhumed with the permission of the local tribal people.

          24

          • #
            joseph

            So that’s it then . . . . one corpse . . . . and we know the full story.
            Sounds a little bit like having one thermometer in the southern hemisphere and being able to calculate the average temperature of the earth.

            12

            • #
              Bill In Oz

              One frozen body is all we get.
              That is all the evidence available.

              By contrast there is NO EVIDENCE for the TB hypothesis. you prefer

              But you are very welcome to gather more evidence in the permafrost.
              That way you could gather more evidence to back up your opinion.

              But I suggest you talk to the locals first though.
              They do object to their ancestor’s bodies being dug up without permission.
              And being in the USA, they all have guns – to scare off the grumpy bears.

              :-)

              14

  • #
    cedarhill

    For those still fearful that CV-19 is a death sentence and must be avoided at all costs and thus the need to avoid the dreaded second wave, third wave, spikes and grim reaper walking the streets shouting “bring out yer dead” (h/t M. Python), consider:

    https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2020/may/20/reopened-states-revive-economy-doomsday-prediction/

    Even for those with the unshakeable belief that mitigation somehow flattened a curve that behaved just like all other coronavirus curves in history (with/without mitigation), nothing was overwhelmed except the economy.

    33

  • #
    TdeF

    I note RIchard Ilfeld’s complaint about the cold nights in Minnesota.

    It’s intriguing about CO2 driven man made warming, that it obviously isn’t true. If CO2 provided a blanket like say clouds, it is now 50% thicker and constant day and night and would keep the nights warmer. We all understand that’s what a thicker blanket does. As with clouds.

    And the warming effect on a cold night would be dramatically greater than on a hot day. However I have not noticed any effect at all. The nights are colder if anything.

    But all we hear about are the very hottest days, setting new ‘records’ with fast response electronic thermometers hunting through thousands of instruments for the hottest one, if only for a second. But it is the minima which should be dramatically higher. And they are obviously not.

    This would be especially noticeable in the desert or far inland without the moderation of water on a clear cold night as the sun sets and the temperature plummets and the land cools rapidly by infra red radiation. And it’s so obviously not true.

    And who in the world world be upset if the nights were warmer? No one. When were there headlines about an unusually warm night in winter, when a thicker blanket would be welcome? Never.

    It’s all made up stuff. And the seas are identical. You can go to any beach or waterside in the world and it will look identical even if the structures have been there for a hundred years.

    So when are we going to be able to stop paying for Chinese windmills and solar panels by theft from our electricity bills? Our power is still 90% from the same coal power stations but our bills have gone through the roof. And all our exports to China are going back in cash for stuff we do not need and doesn’t work.

    72

    • #
      TdeF

      Yes, if you wanted to prove the warming blanket effect of 50% more CO2 since 1900, you should be looking at the minima, not the maxima. No one does. It’s all hell fire and brimstone and pictures of the world on fire. Bill Nye setting fire to a plastic planet. Just like the dark ages with indulgences. You can be saved. You just have to pay enough. And respect the high priests. Like Greta and Al and Tim. All innumerates.

      82

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      GD

      And the warming effect on a cold night would be dramatically greater than on a hot day. However I have not noticed any effect at all. The nights are colder if anything

      I’m not versed in science, but I do know that I can step outside into the environment and see that the alarmist predictions of the last thirty years are complete falsehoods.

      30

    • #

      Clouds don’t make it warmer.
      Warmer makes clouds, and prevents them from raining out.

      The cause for energy increase is always rooted in energy (matter in motion), not matter.

      Matter can’t make things warmer.

      But warmer can suspend more matter.

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  • #
    Orson

    Is Covid-19 virus mutating? This possibility has been swatted down before. But in the new outbreak in Northeast China, that question is being re-opened in order to grasp some reputedly unseen before viral characteristics:

    [Recent events are]….suggesting that the pathogen may be changing in unknown ways and complicating efforts to stamp it out.

    Patients found in the northern provinces of Jilin and Heilongjiang appear to carry the virus for a longer period of time and take longer to test negative, Qiu Haibo, one of China’s top critical care doctors, told state television on Tuesday.

    Patients in the northeast also appear to be taking longer than the one to two weeks observed in Wuhan to develop symptoms after infection, and this delayed onset is making it harder for authorities to catch cases before they spread, said Qiu, who is now in the northern region treating patients.

    https://fortune.com/2020/05/20/is-coronavirus-mutating-china-cases-no-symptoms-longer-recovery-time-covid-19-update/

    At this point, it’s hard to get a grip on what exactly is going on. But given the scale of the attempt at containment,
    and after Wuhan, this is unlikely to be any good.

    40

    • #
      TdeF

      That’s what you would expect. The mutation which keeps the virus hidden for longer would have a mathematically far greater chance of survival. That’s what locking people up does, unfortunately. It stays invisible longer.

      What we need is a different mutation which does not make people sick, or at least a far lower fatality rate. Like the flus descended from the original lethal H1N1 Spanish flu. That has the greatest chance of success, but we have to look for it and I suspect no one is looking.

      Surely that is what ends every pandemic and is misinterpreted in hindsight as herd immunity to the original virus. It is more likely in uncontrolled large populations like Pakistan. And it will spread exponentially from there.

      Viruses are controlled by Darwin’s survival of the fittest principle. It is a form of selection of endless genetic variants. It is why Africans are dark and Northerners are white. And polar bears are brown bears with transparent fur. Arctic foxes and owls. Adaption by selection from normal mutations. Viruses are not alive but for long term survival they have to learn not to kill the host.

      Surely in the 21st century we can take the lead on this and actually look for a benign mutation? Is anyone even trying? The massive advantage over an inoculation is that it is self inoculating at incredible speed and the only practical and free solution for countries like Africa and South America and central Asia.

      We might be too certain of our ability to create a vaccine when we should also be monitoring and mastering the natural mutations. In every country.

      32

      • #
        TdeF

        Or is everyone focused on the billions to be made from a vaccine? They will have to hurry before the problem self resolves, like every pandemic.

        52

      • #
        Kalm Keith

        Good discussion and perhaps points to another aspect of the virus thing.

        We don’t really know much about viruses and need a lot of research on the subject.

        Personally I would thoroughly endorse an immediate cessation of all “Global warming” related activity, all of it, and the money reallocated to Virus Study.

        This could go Viral.

        KK

        30

        • #
          Orson

          Gotcha on my that. I listened to some of TWiV. They report that research papers on CV19 are doubling every 20 days. Currently at 8,000 per week (or was it just 4,000). Selection and pre print checking tool like AI to sample data and discussion coherence, for example. Too many misleading positive reports seems a problem. But host Dr Vincent R retorted, I do fine….I just do this thing called “reading.”

          20

  • #
    MrGrimNasty

    I’ve not posted for several days as some people have become quite irate at contrary opinion, I don’t do ‘flame’ wars, if you want the last word – you’re welcome to it! Anyway, that said, I thought this was sufficiently interesting to post.

    Is 17% a significant number? The British gov. just announced that antibody testing in London showed 17% of the population positive – London is the one place in the UK where the virus probably got ‘out of control’ in the whole population (as some would consider it) and so probably had the most natural progression. London is now the place closest to elimination in the UK.

    https://metro.co.uk/2020/05/21/17-londoners-5-rest-uk-have-coronavirus-antibodies-12739901/

    https://www.aa.com.tr/en/europe/covid-19-could-be-wiped-out-in-london-by-june/1842156#

    17% also seemed to be a significant threshold in Sweden.

    https://judithcurry.com/2020/05/10/why-herd-immunity-to-covid-19-is-reached-much-earlier-than-thought/

    The rest of the UK is ~5% and ‘the curve’ is almost a straight line, the inexorable spread has been made excruciatingly slow, but it will not actually stop until the HIT is reached.

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    • #
      Kalm Keith

      Good news?

      I’ve always thought that you don’t “Do” herd immunity,
      it Does us.

      KK

      11

  • #
    MrGrimNasty

    London – no new cases for 24hrs (won’t stay like that obviously, but quite a turnaround).

    https://metro.co.uk/2020/05/20/london-records-no-new-coronavirus-cases-24-hours-12733386/

    England & Wales weekly deaths approaching ‘normal’ range. See graphic here:

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsregisteredweeklyinenglandandwalesprovisional/weekending8may2020

    21

  • #
    Travis T. Jones

    Thank you fossil fuels.
    Is there nothing you can’t do?

    Millions evacuated as Cyclone Amphan moves in on India and Bangladesh

    While the storms’ frequency and intensity have increased – blamed partly on [global warming]- deaths have fallen thanks to faster evacuations and more shelters.”

    https://www.sbs.com.au/news/millions-evacuated-as-cyclone-amphan-moves-in-on-india-and-bangladesh

    Once the strongest storm ever recorded in the Bay of Bengal, Amphan came ashore as a weakened but dangerous system

    “Tropical Cyclone Amphan made landfall south of Kolkata, India, on Wednesday as a Category 2 storm, with maximum sustained winds of 100 mph.

    While it had weakened considerably from its once fearsome Category 5 intensity …”

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2020/05/20/cyclone-amphan-makes-landfall-india-bringing-storm-surge-flooding-rains/

    >> Either fossil fuels caused the decrease in intensity as well as increase, or it is just weather.

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    • #
      Greg in NZ

      Surely it was a Category 666!

      The mark of the Yeast!

      We’re BAKED I tells ya, baked!

      40

      • #
        Greg in NZ

        As a side note, our patch of the (south-west) Pacific has had two summers in a row of fewer than usual cyclones forming – thanks to El Nino or [global warming] or natural ebb and flow.

        Now that La Nina appears to be kicking into gear, with central Pacific sea surface temperatures plummeting, this autumn / lingering Indian summer has seen numerous small lows forming to the north and east of us before eventually fading away. It’s been great for those of us who love jumping in the ocean, as swells generated by these offshore storms have been rolling in for week after week after week.

        As a number of commentors here have foreseen, it appears the rains are returning to your parched continent… again. This may come as a surprise to certain professional expert alarmists and other rip-off panic merchants, yet not to those of us who keep a weather eye on the horizon.

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        • #
          Travis T. Jones

          Cyclone season is over …

          TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP

          Tropical Cyclone Mangga

          Issued at 4:16 am CCT Friday 22 May 2020. Refer to Tropical Cyclone Advice Number 6.

          http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDW60281.shtml

          It’s near the Cocos Is.

          20

          • #
            Greg in NZ

            “Refer to Tropical Cyclone Advice Number 6″.

            See, I told ya – #6 – but ya didn’t believe me! (oops, I was channelling Ren’s voice from ‘Ren & Stimpy’).

            According to your boom/bang/BoM, poor little Mangga, presently a minor Cat 1, is just that: a minor glitch in the chaotic, non-linear system we call ‘climate’… though I’m 97% confident your ABC will extrapolate it up to a Cat 6 man-made catastrophe: the mark of the yeast, after all, is carbon dioxide.

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  • #
    Another Ian

    “Texas Bureau of Economic Geology Director Scott W. Tinker vs Energy Poverty”

    https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/05/21/texas-bureau-of-economic-geology-director-scott-w-tinker-vs-energy-poverty/

    10

  • #
    Another Ian

    “Climate change and a pandemic of lies”

    https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/05/21/climate-change-and-a-pandemic-of-lies/

    “But when you look at the dataset used by the Countdown, you uncover a very different story, and one that is unequivocal: climate-related mortality has collapsed, and is now less than half the level it was in 1990, when the dataset starts. This is nothing less than a public-health triumph.”

    40

  • #

    Red team the science used for radical policies
    By David Wojick
    https://www.cfact.org/2020/05/16/red-team-the-science-used-for-radical-policies/

    While we are still in the middle of the corona crisis, supranational organizations of the UN are already busy in making top-down recovery plans they want to impose on national governments. All these experimental plans go for a utopic economy that they justify by doubtful scientific models being still under development.

    Nowadays these models are very complex and run on super computers, impressing politicians and citizens. However, believing these computer models means trusting the makers. The time has come to ‘red team’ the models.

    Red teaming means that before implementing revolutionary, science-based policies we assign a team of world-renowned scientists the task of establishing which aspects of the involved models are confirmed by reality (‘evidence-based part’) and which parts are still speculative. Only then will governments have a balanced scientific basis for making responsible policy decisions.

    We increasingly see that radical policies are promoted on a very one-sided view of scientific models. Many model makers have become activists. Two representative examples are climate and corona models. Red Teaming fits today’s big issues.

    In fact we already have a timely red team request on the table at the UN. The Climate Intelligence Foundation (CLINTEL) has sent a registered letter to UN Secretary General António Guterres, specifically asking for a red teaming of UN climate policy. Here is the specific text from the request, sent by CLINTEL president Professor Guus Berkhout:

    “We repeat our invitation to you to organize with CLINTEL a constructive high-level meeting between world-class scientists on both sides of the debate on your green plans. A ‘Red Team Meeting’ will give effect to the sound and ancient principle that both sides should be fully and fairly heard. Audiatur et altera pars!”

    The Latin is a legal maxim that means “Let the other side also be heard“. This surely is the essence of red teaming.

    CLINTEL’s scientific concern is that the hypothesis of human’s preventing climate change is scientifically unsound. It will require huge investments, but may not achieve anything. The Guterres letter puts it in a very clear way:

    “Please be also aware that mankind is incapable to stop the big natural forces that cause changes in the climate. Instead of fighting against these causes (‘mitigation’), we should timely act against the consequences whenever they become a threat (‘adaptation’). In past decades UN’s IPCC mitigation policy has never spared one life, while adaptation has saved the lives of hundreds of thousands.”

    Professor Berkhout has already pointed out on many occasions that experience in the past warns us that there is a definite limit to what mankind can do to control our planet. Continuing with the Guterres Letter:

    “Idealistic attempts to re-engineer nature with super computers and green deals in the hope of preventing natural change are pointless. Mankind cannot prevent or control the occurrence of natural events such as earthquakes, tsunamis, volcanic eruptions, extreme weather, global warming and cooling, virus mutations, etc. When such ‘Black Swans’ occur, we should identify them early and adapt to them promptly.”

    Indeed, history tells us that the success of civilization depends on our ability to adapt to inevitable change. Adaptation works and mankind is good at it. Forms of life that could not adapt did not survive. Continuing once more with the Guterres Letter:

    To get the economy on its feet again, please stop preaching doom and gloom. Stop promising the impossible a perfect Earth. With all due respect, your green deal plans are scientifically and economically far from realistic. They will lead to a deeper recession and an unprecedented poverty.”

    Summarizing, the world needs a Red Team event urgently. Here are the main points in CLINTEL’s ‘Red Team Initiative’ (RTI):

    Both sides of the debate bring a group of world-renowned scientists in the team;

    Together these scientists decide whether the underlying scientific models provide enough certainties to justify the execution of UN’s green plans;

    If the evaluation would be negative, the team may come up with the outline of an alternative path, promising more perspective and less risk.

    To get the economy on its feet again, please stop the doom and gloom stories and offer citizens hope on a speedy recovery. Be aware that all recovery policies must respect scientific and economic realities at all times. Therefore, let us give worldwide support to CLINTEL’s initiative and organize with them a Red Team Meeting to establish the validity of UN’s green deals and, if necessary, to formulate an alternative path.

    Particularly now, citizens don’t need any top-down idealistic experiment, but they need concrete plans to get out of the current misery soon. Restoring democracy is a must to successfully do this. Red Teaming is the tool to use.

    Please share this.

    David

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    yarpos

    The VIC Covid daily update site used to trumpet the States assertive action in buying ventilators and proudly claimed to be buying 1000’s more.

    You go there now and its not mentioned, in fact the site has been cleansed of any mention of ventilators. If you do a seach you get zero returns. Down the memory hole for you!!

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      Greg in NZ

      Crock-o-virus stats for NZ:

      No new ‘cases’ for 4 days
      21 deaths ‘linked’ to the crisis/virus
      97% recovery rate of ‘infected’.

      Road toll for NZ:

      April – 9
      May – 13 (so far)
      2019 – 352 (provisional).

      As our roads are more deadly than any imported pox (thanks to Another Ian, see below) one would think our elected leaders [cough!] would have ‘locked down’ highways and country roads long ago, as well as banned the sale of such deadly instruments/vehicles. Unless, of course, Cinders & Co. are keeping that trick up their sleeve for the much-vaunted coming Second Wave.

      Stay safe and lap up that free Vit D falling from the sky!

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    Travis T. Jones

    Get ready for lockdown 2.0 …

    Is the coronavirus mutating? China’s new COVID-19 outbreak is raising concerns

    “Chinese doctors are seeing the coronavirus manifest differently among patients in its new cluster of cases in the northeast region compared to the original outbreak in Wuhan, suggesting that the pathogen may be changing in unknown ways and complicating efforts to stamp it out.”

    https://fortune.com/2020/05/20/is-coronavirus-mutating-china-cases-no-symptoms-longer-recovery-time-covid-19-update/

    Coronavirus experts: ‘No chance’ pandemic will end this summer
    https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Caixin/Coronavirus-experts-No-chance-pandemic-will-end-this-summer

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    robert rosicka

    Anybody else get a random robo call from a Chinese speaking woman this week ?
    Not being able to speak Chinese I just hung up the phone and blocked the number .

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    • #
      Serp

      Is it an infallible divination skill of yours to be able to identify languages you do not speak, or does it apply just to generic Chinese?

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      • #
        robert rosicka

        As a tragic of Chinese movies on SBS and life experience with many nationalities I can swear like a trooper in many different languages, well about five .
        Taught by those with a sense of humour in their native tongue so yes I’m sure it was Chinese .

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    el gordo

    ‘A Hong Kong-based Chinese company is threatening to move on the operator of one of Australia’s most famous five-star resorts over its COVID-19 closure.’ Oz

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    Travis T. Jones

    In 2003, CSIRO and the Australian National University (ANU) published a report titled “The impact of climate change on snow conditions in mainland Australia”.
    The key findings of this report included:

    When projections from nine global climate models are used as input to a snow model, future decreases in snow depth, cover and duration are simulated;
    By 2020, the average annual duration of snow-cover decreases by between five and 48 days; maximum snow depths are reduced and tend to occur earlier in the year; and the total area covered in snow shrinks by 10-40%;

    https://publications.csiro.au/rpr/pub?list=SEA&pid=csiro:EP117309&sb=RECENT&expert=false&n=12&rpp=25&page=1&tr=425&q=Hennessy&dr=all

    21 May, 2020:
    When will it next snow in Australia?
    - Snow is next forecast to fall in Australia over the next week, in at least 8 Ski Resorts including Falls Creek, Hotham, Mount Baw Baw, Perisher and Thredbo.
    How much snow is there in Australia?
    - The deepest reported snow in Australia is in Hotham, which reports snow depths of 107cm on upper slopes.
    When did it last snow in Australia?
    - Recent snow reports indicate that it last snowed in Australia on Wednesday 20th May 2020, in Ski Resorts including Thredbo.
    https://au.j2ski.com/snow_forecast/Australia/

    Watch this space.

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      robert rosicka

      A spectacular fail from the CSIRO Travis , this year looks like being a bumper year for snow .
      It could also be a close to record year for rainfall of which the opposite was the prediction .

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        Greg in NZ

        Have just texted my sister in Perth to give her a heads-up re ex-TC Mangga’s imminent arrival in a few days’ time (she’s a ‘believer’).

        Also advised her to keep her winter woolies handy as SNOW is forecast to fall on Bluff Knoll in the Stirling Ranges come Monday. Snow in Western Australia, you say? Aye-aye Cap’n, just as it did in April, and March, and I even remember a dusting in February and (possibly?) one back in January, ie. ‘summer’ in the southern hemi.

        When there’s obviously no sign whatsoever of ‘runaway’ temps, the [email protected] have to resort to repackaging their insurance plan – indulgence industry – as weather ‘weirding’ or sumpfink. Hows about: Freezing is the new warming?

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    cedarhill

    And a backlash is building — even form the Millennials. This one might be considered “woke”

    https://youtu.be/rTZViy0adBM

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    Orson

    Covid-19 virus secondary infections speeded up by 10% of superspreaders?

    That’s my take on this Twitter discussion, based on a study in Austria, which estimates that the 80% of secondary spread of infections routes through only 10% of people.
    https://twitter.com/kakape/status/1262866719871307782

    One of the Big Keys to managing this crisis is identifying and isolating these superspreaders. Otherwise, general isolation will remain the default strategy for the foreseeable future.

    The Twitter thread also emphasises that the mechanics of infection involve multiple variables. One wishes that like in group psychology, a few controlled lab experiments would get us to a handle on all of this, empowering a fine-Tuned application of our crude social isolation strategies.

    However….ethics.

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    Orson

    Bubble corridors to reopen international travel, soon? A look at the evolving answers to this question via Japan Times.
    https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/05/19/world/plane-travel-bubble-corridors/#.Xsc3RC-xXmp

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      Bill In Oz

      Well the airlines spread the disease across the planet to nearly every country.
      And new outbreaks are happening as soon as flights happen again.

      So I doubt that ordinary folk will forget that in a hurry

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        Orson

        Of course, Bill. But Saturday I read how the US is doing it, currently.

        A man says his nephew graduated med school in Seattle to start residency in Charleston, South Carolina. That’s some 3,000 miles. For example, the nephew had three pets to travel, but only one animal onboard per passenger is allowed. Therefore family members made the journey by air.

        The plane required wearing of face masks, given out gratis. Seating, Spacing out facilitated, despite two-thirds full. No food on board, just drinks. Masks can come off to drink.

        Ps I won’t see any US doctor graduating in 2019 or later. Obama has corrupted science, in this case, medicine because the med school tests now reward SWJ nonsense by applicants.

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    Bill In Oz

    Meanwhile Sweden is still killing it’s own people in great numbers.
    The highest monthly dead count in 27 years.
    What a stupid bizarre ‘progressive’ government.

    https://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/health/health-problems/coronavirus-swedens-death-toll-becomes-worlds-highest-per-capita/news-story/1e9f4fb4fdb0b013e9ea2f10e05aaa7d

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  • #
    el gordo

    East Coast Low makes Darwin cooler than Perth.

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    • #
      Greg in NZ

      B r r r . . .

      Looking at your Bureau of Malinformation (sic) it’s only Darwin and Perth which have managed to scrape into the 20s today: all other state capitals are shivering in the mid-teens.

      I’m starting to think ‘the climate’ HAS changed, as you fellas and fella-esses are cold, wet and windy, while we are warm, dry, calm AND sunny – purrfek!

      N.B. NZ’s conservative, right, Team Blue, opposition party today tossed out their leader and deputy leader, voting in someone by the name of Todd Muller. Who? Apparently he’s a businessman who’s worked with the farming community over the years, however, he’s a fan of the so-called Zero Carbon Act and wants NZ to work within the Paris (non)Accord framework! Strange days indeed; very peculiar mama.

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      • #
        el gordo

        Politics is weird at the moment, we need a circuit breaker to end the malaise.

        Technically its not an ECL, which seem to be ex-tropical lows, whereas this Tasman Low is heading your way.

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    • #
      el gordo

      La Nina is coming, but BoM still not willing to call it.

      ‘Most climate models surveyed by the Bureau indicate that ENSO is likely to stay neutral through the southern hemisphere winter. However, in early-to-mid spring, three of the eight models reach or exceed La Niña levels.

      ‘Like IOD predictions, ENSO predictions made during autumn tend to have lower accuracy than predictions made at other times of the year. This means that current ENSO forecasts should be used with some caution.’

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      • #
        Another Ian

        Nutrien has just circulated a long range prediction (not BOM recycled) which also suggests a wet rest of the year

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    Bill In Oz

    The economic impact of the virus pandemic in China is huge.
    And threaten’s the CCP’s grip on dictatorial power
    Why ?
    Because massive unemployment is growing fast.
    Global demand for it’s manufactured exports has slumped enormously.
    This is being compounded by the shift of supply chains away from China for many manufactured goods.
    That means that Chinese manufacturing generally is in a major slump.

    The other major driver for past employment growth has been in services.
    But customers are nervous about catching the disease & so very scarce.

    So if we here in Oz are honest, the Chinese market for our barley, meat, wine, dairy products etc
    Has fallen off a cliff and will take years to recover.
    Best our farmers realise this and seek other markets.
    The UK, the USA, Japan, Taiwan, South Korea & Canada come to mind.
    But other countries which are benefiting from the movement of assembly plants away from China should also be in the mix.
    India, Vietnam, Thailand, the Philippines are likely improved customers for Australia’s farm commodities.

    A new less globalised, but still inter-connected world, is being born.

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        Bill In Oz

        E G Yes I agree and that was in the back of my mind.
        I just was leaving it till later.
        One step at a time. :-)

        Yes the CCP is taking over in Hong Kong and there would indeed be a flood of HK folk to Australia if the borders were not closed and currently no flights eiiher.
        But I fully expect it to happen when the border control are opened. For Australians the question will be how many of them come as tourists and then request asylum here with no assets or income to support themselves. A lot of the HK protesters will be forced to do this. The other question is how to screen out the secret CCP sympathisers coming as ‘refugees’ to infiltrate & influence the local Australian Chinese community and report back to Beijing,

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      el gordo

      Something else you may have missed, Oz should expect a flood of cashed up immigrants from HK in the near future. Should we let them in?

      ‘The Hang Seng Index heads for the biggest decline in almost five years as China’s legislature is set to vote on a security law that will increase Beijing’s control over Hong Kong.

      ‘All the 50 members of the city’s benchmark fall, with developers being the worst-performing industry group.’ SCMP

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      Another Ian

      See

      Jian Bozan, Shao Xunzheng and Hu Hua “A Concise History of China”. Foreign Language Press, Beijing 1st Edition 1964, 2nd Edition 1981.

      The basic theme of that Chinese history being that when the peasantry is screwed too hard that is when a new dynasty will arise

      20

      • #
        Bill In Oz

        Yi Jinping is losing the ‘mandate’ to rule China.
        But it will be the newly unemployed working Chinese who’s opinion matters.

        12

    • #
      Orson

      As a Yank from a Colorado (a state with billions of barrels in oil and gas), currently in NZ but ready to visit West next month, Australia really needs a pro-fracking movement.

      The US is poised to seize the lead from Germany in Petro-chemicals as well as downstream manufacturing because the latter blew away their low-cost electricity leadership in the disastrous and failed energiegewende.

      Nat gas is low carbon emissions. The US pursuit of efficient production has left developed rivals in the dust by simply being low-cost and productive. With the New Cold War against China, the US seeking to reorganise supply chains away from The CCP totalitarians (and yes, even hate America first Democrats now see China as the enemy and thus support taking this direction), there is nothing for Australia to lose by exploiting her cleanest natural energy resources, Nat gas.

      Nat gas is no regrets policy. Lowest in a carbon emissions, cleanest burning for air. And a vital base for both energy and petrochemicals. What’s not to luv except irrational anti-industrial enviros?

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    mark jones

    I hope someone on the editing side reads this. I spotted this article on Weatherzone yesterday (Thursday) and am amazed.

    Increased red tape leaves Great Ocean Road community stranded by rising river levels.

    Anyone else hear the alarm bells going off?

    10

    • #
      Serp

      It’s the UK’s Somerset Levels snafu in miniature, an ongoing intentionally created disaster driven by the green ideologues who today infest all levels of government.

      10

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    Bill In Oz

    During the Covid lockdown the cry has been lock up the elderly and the vulnerable
    And let the virus rip among the young & healthy.
    ( NB : Sweden, the UK & the Netherlands)

    But what happens to the old when they are locked up ? here’s some Irish research answering that question,
    In brief it destroys them : https://www.irishtimes.com/news/science/blanket-cocooning-for-over-70s-has-done-more-harm-than-good-1.4254477?mode=amp

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      Bill In Oz

      In moderation for posting a comment with an Irish link ?
      Filter doesn’t like Ireland?

      03

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    Another Ian

    “Special Message for the Baristas with Two Liberal Arts Degrees”

    “We know, we know, you have a bachelor’s degree in women’s studies and a master’s degree in alt-queer sexuality. Yet with all of this “brilliant” academic achievement, you had a grand total of . . . zero job offers related to your “expertise”. So you’re working as a barista at a coffee shop and hate your life. A plumber came by this morning to fix the uni-sex toilet. You treated him with disdain because you have unresolved “daddy issues” and he reminded you too much of your father who was also a blue collar worker. Let’s face it, you and your fellow Radical Leftist friends look down upon such working men because you all know how much more enlightened and wise you are compared to Average Joes like this guy. The fact that his invoice billed your coffee shop at $140/hour for the work he did vs. the $12/hour you make only reinforced your certainty that the patriarchy has kept your talents from being recognized your entire life.”

    http://www.smalldeadanimals.com/index.php/2020/05/21/special-message-for-the-baristas-with-two-liberal-arts-degrees/

    Also along those lines from a very old Readers Digest:-

    “When everyone but the last plumber in USA has a Ph.D. he’s going to make a fortune”

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    Brettos

    Funny how the likes of ABC confuse steam with pollution from power stations. Now they can’t tell the difference between phone towers and power transmission towers…
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-05-22/cranbourne-west-tower-fire-investigation/12277080

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    cedarhill

    Doctors in the US saying CV-19 response creating even more deaths:

    https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2020/may/21/500-doctors-tell-donald-trump-end-coronavirus-shut/

    Other articles point out the financial destruction of the medical industry with up to 60% of medical workers idled. Then other articles estimating how many months it will take to work off the backlog.

    One way to measure the impact – in 2021 or 2022 – whenever the numbers come out is the all cause mortality of nations “mitigating” CV-19.

    After the numbers settle down (if ever), fighting “hot spots” will likely be the preferred method using a rapid deployment method to treat any “surge”? Maybe even modifying our facilities where elders go to die by installing UVC, screening of visitors/staff/deliveries? But not what has been done with CV-19.

    50

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    cedarhill

    More on the health impact of the lock downs. Again, measuring all cause mortality may be the only way to measure the death trade offs — and this article summarizes many of the upcoming “excess deaths”:

    https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2020/05/the-deadly-health-impacts-of-prolonged-lockdowns.php

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      Orson

      Yes. The all cause weekly mortality rates in Europe, late April p, varied from +25% in Sweden to +90% in Italy and Spain.

      Given the fall in auto use, this means that Covid19 caused over half of all weekly deaths in much of a Europe. This is measurable.

      Now, if we can raise Vitamin D levels and have our HCQ, then us risk-taking elders will be enjoying a Europe again quite soon!

      However, on Friday I read of a Danish Sailor’s gloom over Europe, especially southern. The End for them, he believes. No re relational sailing there this summer. Almost no tourism. But the Baltic North, that will be open!

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    cedarhill

    Effects of shutdown – Wall Street Journal (paywalled) article

    https://www.wsj.com/articles/as-the-coronavirus-lockdown-eases-italy-confronts-an-epidemic-of-poverty-11590058801

    stating worst poverty since immediately after WWII, people without money for food, poverty, etc.

    11

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    cedarhill

    And yet another consequence. WHO stating millions of kids at risk due to disruption in vaccination schedules:

    https://www.statnews.com/2020/05/22/who-routine-childhood-vaccinations-disrupted-coronavirus/

    An odd time: those that demanded “lock downs”, et al, complaining about the effects of their directives.

    21