JoNova

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Did I say disruption was coming?

And so it begins.

Suddenly there are no more weddings for a quarter of all of Italy. No more movies, pubs, dance halls or trains to some parts of the country either. Italy is about to overtake South Korea for the number two spot on the list no country wants to lead, unless Iran beats Italy to it (which it almost certainly has already). Today 16 million Italians are not free to go about their business, or go to school.

On Feb 21st, Italy had three cases, now 366 people are dead, and 7353 are infected (at least). How life has changed in two weeks and three days. Suddenly France and Germany are about to reach the 1,000 mark. This is what exponential curves feel like.

“We are facing an emergency, a national emergency,” Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte said in announcing the government decree in a news conference after 2 a.m. — NY Times

The Frankfurt and London exchanges dropped by 8 percent in early Monday trading, while in Paris stocks were trading 4 percent lower. An index of Europe’s 50 biggest companies was down nearly 6 percent.

Oil prices lost nearly a quarter of their value in futures markets, as two major producers, Saudi Arabia and Russia, set off a price war while the world’s thirst for crude is already ebbing. While low oil prices can give consumers a boost, they can also disrupt countries that depend heavily on petroleum dollars to keep their economies running.

Stanford Uni and University of Washington have cancelled all classes and gone online. The first of many.  One student started a petition and got 3700 signatures. Maybe that did it, or maybe the rulers there are smart and worried about catching it themselves.

This is all so predictable.

But we don’t have to sit back and wait for leaders to figure out the obvious. Send those messages. Start those petitions. Write to the editors. On the curve, every day matters. We know what we should do. We just need to get serious. Stop the flights, stop the crowds, stay home and get deliveries. Close the schools. Do it well fast and hard and then it’s over. Then open flights up to all the countries that did it properly too.  Its not the end of the world. Then we can help others.

The good news: South Korea continues to get fewer new infections (only 272, down from 800 at the peak). Singapore, Hong Kong and Taiwan appear to be in control. There is a future where the West awakes, stops doing everything two weeks too late, playing catch up with a virus, and pretty soon we can flatten that curve.

The video’s pretty full on, but history books will be written about this week. Tucker Carlson’s not boring and there’s plenty to debate, like how fast can we start mass production of antibiotics. (UPDATE: Antibiotics won’t beat a virus, but we sure need them).

Does Greg Hunt have a plan, or is he hoping the US does and we can piggy back? Or thinking India will have medicine to spare? They banned pharmaceutical exports four days ago.

If Australians are a bit skittish it’s because Greg Hunt has said we’re “prepared” 400 different ways with an old influenza plan and no other details.

This is what’s coming (something like Italy), plus deaths. Or we can do it now and skip most of the deaths bit:

The Italian Warnings

Northern Italy under lockdown

– Lombardy region (entire region, all provinces)
– Piedmont (provinces of Alessandria, Asti, Novara, Verbano Cusio Ossola, and Vercelli)
– Veneto
(provinces of Padua, Treviso, and Venice)
– Emilia Romagna (provinces of Modena, Parma, Piacenza, Reggio Emilia, and Rimini)
– Marche
(province of Pesaro Urbino)

In the above areas:

  • Travel in and out of the area, as well as within the area, will only be possible in response to “duly verified professional requirements, emergency situations, or for health reasons”
  • People with symptoms of respiratory disease and fever of 37.5 Celsius or above are strongly encouraged to stay at home and limit social contact as much as possible, and contact their doctor
  • Avoid gathering
  • All schools and universities must be closed
  • All museums and places of culture will be closed
  • All cultural, religious or festive events are suspended
  • Cinemas, pubs, theaters, dance schools, game rooms, casinos, nightclubs and other similar places shall remain closed
  • All sporting events and competitions are suspended
  • Ski resorts are closed until further notice
  • Swimming pools, sports halls, thermal baths, cultural centers and wellness centers must suspend their activities
  • Bars and restaurants can remain open from 8 a.m. to 6 p.m. provided they respect the safety distance of at least 1 meter between customers – this provision also concerns other commercial activities
  • Shopping centers and department stores must remain closed on public holidays and the days preceding them
  • Places of worship remain open, provided that the safety distance of at least 1 meter is respected, but religious ceremonies (marriage, baptism) are prohibited until further notice

National restrictions

  • As in the north of the country, cinemas, theaters, museums, pubs, game rooms, dance schools, discos and other similar places will be closed
  • Sports competitions are suspended with some exceptions

______________________________________________

Coronavirus Background: ☀ The Demographics: the young are spared, but the severity increases with age, and slightly more for men than women. ☀ The Ro is 2 – 3 and exponential curves are steep. How Coronavirus kills: why the number of ICU units matters so much. ☀ Illness progression: Dry coughs and Fevers, Aches. In 15% of people, by day 5 breathing trouble starts. In 3% (?) by day 8 they may need an ICU (intensive care unit). ☀ The good case of Singapore but the ominous calculations of how fast the ICU beds may run out. ☀ The story of how American Samoa avoided Flu Deaths with quarantine in 1918. ☀

Economics: ☀ The huge impact on the Chinese economy, the awful case of Iran.☀

Beware UN advice:Ethiopian WHO chief was part of China’s debt trap diplomacy ☀

Stats and Data: John Hopkins Live Map Worldometer

 

9.2 out of 10 based on 60 ratings

254 comments to Did I say disruption was coming?

  • #

    I think there is more than just bargaining in the oil price drop. Iran is an opponent of Saudi Arabia in religion. Iran is helping the rebels in Yemen who destroyed with missiles a refinery. Russia has been helping Iran. The Iranians have a bad dose of the virus which will affect their economy but the reduction of the oil price will be a big kick on the Iranians and maybe the Turks. Russia will also be affected economically. The USA is self sufficient in oil & gas and will continue to grow. Will the ordinary Iranians rebel against the their religious controllers? Something good may come out of the mess.

    202

    • #
      Sean

      Who would have thought the Saudis would not let a crisis to to waste!

      80

    • #

      from WUWT Some analysts said the problem could metastasize, dropping oil prices still further.

      ″$20 oil in 2020 is coming,” Ali Khedery, a former U.S. official in Iraq, wrote Saturday on Twitter. “Huge geopolitical implications. Timely stimulus for net consumers. Catastrophic for failed/failing petro-kleptocracies Iraq, Iran, etc. — may prove existential 1-2 punch when paired with COVID19.”

      Others believe a market overreaction to the virus spread could trigger an actual emergency.

      10

  • #
    Roger Knights

    “Stanford Uni and University of Washington have cancelled all classes and gone online. The first of many. ”

    Let’s hope they stay online and cut their fees by 50%, at a minimum, followed by 50% cuts in succeeding years, as faculty and administrators are laid off. We don’t need 1000 professors teaching Economics 101; ten can handle the whole country. Ditto for other subjects.

    241

  • #
    Orson Olson

    The US squandered a two and three week window to get mass Covid19 virus testing done and meaningful quarantine was lost. Why? CDC bureaucrats.

    This committee decided to piggy-back MERS and SARS testing with the novel corona virus. This made production of test kits trick to make, according to an important piece in quilette, an online journal.

    Thus, a greedy bureaucratic decision lost tens of thousands of hazardous infections, with unknown numbers of premature deaths. Given US infection rates doubling and overwhelming hospital capacity with one million infections by May, this may well be a truly catastrophic decision.

    93

  • #
    Choroin

    Tucker Carlson is a once-in-a-lifetime news and opinion personality.

    I haven’t and probably won’t see another with this much integrity in my lifetime.

    He has a track record of exemplary dedication to straight talk and he never runs away from controversy.

    I’d like to be a fly on the wall the day that Fox overreaches and attempts to censor him and he hands in his resignation with a swift “on your heads it shall be.”

    God only know what will happen to what remains of NewsCorp and Fox when the children of Rupert carve it up and liberalize it completely.

    Honorary mention to the textbook TuckerFace when liberals are speaking rubbish on his show.

    210

    • #

      I try to get my news equally from two sides:

      One half hour of David Muir on ABC TV (mainstream media) with a pro-Democrat bias, and the first half hour of Tucker Carlson on Fox News (cable TV) with a pro-Republican bias.

      It is amazing on some night that there’s so much difference between the two.

      I’d watch the full hour of Carlson if I could tolerate a full hour of pro-Demicrat biased “news”.

      The only problem I have with Carlson is when he invites a liberal on his show for a debate — they usually get LOUD and try to talk over him, never pausing — that’s annoying.

      In my dreams all US liberals get deported to France, so that we normal people can remain here and enjoy our country!

      200

    • #
      Ross

      I think the young Murdochs will be careful (if they have half the brains of their father). A group of wealthy centre right people have bought a big stake in OANN with the aim of expanding it.

      Similarly a billionaire has bought a big stake in Twitter to help counter it’s left wing bias etc.

      40

  • #

    Still, all those measures just flatten the curve so as to help health services cope and thereby reduce the death rate.
    It will still be there forever unless it does what SARS did and via natural changes ceases to be a significant issue.
    Unless it does that we will all get it eventually but over an extended period of time, just like colds and flu.

    60

    • #

      C’mon — SARS didn’t go anywhere “naturally”. Humans stomped it out because they had to. This one is harder to stomp out, but we still would have done that already if it had a 10% death rate. Instead lots of people confused this for the flu and here we sit on the edge of a global mass pandemic that we didn’t have to have.

      Vaccines won’t save us for this round. Mutations may help us, but they may not, and we may need months or years.

      Quarantine kills the virus through attrition. We can wait it out. it’s a dumb bit of code that can’t last more than a couple of weeks outside a body or a freezer. We need to stop giving it free bodies.

      330

      • #
        John McClure

        “…can’t last more than a couple of weeks outside a body or freezer”

        This is one of the obvious aspects related to containment. No one appears to have done testing to confirm how long virus droplets can contaminate our environment.

        The best answer I’ve heard thus far, it depends on the contaminated surface material and temperature (also includes humidity).

        Your point about strategic use of data in South Korea was great.

        Looks like CDC worldwide is as fubar as Climate Science.

        70

      • #

        You are right about SARS having been dealt with by containment. My error.
        However, this one is much harder to deal with by containment so we have the additional problem of balancing deaths from the disease against deaths from economic disruption causing food and medicine supply problems. The US gets nearly all of its antibiotics from China so there is a problem there until local production can be created.
        I’m not sure that it could have been stamped out quickly even with a 10% or more mortality. China tried more rigorously than any other society could but it still got out.
        Best approach for the future might be to kill all bats. Apparently they carry a pool of ever mutating coronavirus types that can jump to humans. Might have to treat them like the plague rats of old.

        89

        • #

          the additional problem of balancing deaths from the disease against deaths from economic disruption causing food and medicine supply problems.

          No. You are not the only one thinking this way. I see now how many people see it like that. It’s a false choice.

          Our options were:

          1. Quarantine and save people AND The economy (with some inevitable major cost).

          OR
          2. NO Quarantine and kill hundreds of thousands of people AND The trash the Economy.

          270

          • #

            I think the only difference between us lies with the question as to whether the outcome could be as for SARS with virtually no new infections globally or whether there will always be a pool of this virus constantly creating new clusters around the world well into the future whatever procedures we adopt now.
            That symptom fee period of two weeks or so whilst being infectious really is a problem because it means that it is very hard to decide who needs to be quarantined and who does not. Even with quarantine there will be those who abuse the process or make mistakes in applying it.
            If you can’t stop new variants of colds and flu from entering Australia I doubt the long term practicalities in relation to Corvid-19.
            No way to decide between on the likely efficacy of your fairly draconian proposal given that all thus far governments have already failed to apply it.
            As for comments about checking people without obvious symptoms on incoming flights to UK I noted that the cabin staff have been observing passengers for symptoms and given the short flight time relative to the incubation period the current medical advice is that it would be ineffective.

            56

            • #

              Stephen, forgive me, I can see you are learning a lot of virology.

              I think the core thing here is that you and many people, are judging this against normal policy outcomes when it’s one of those Blackswan bombshell events that changes all the rules. Consider your language — My proposal is “draconian” exactly compared to what — the death of 600,000 people in the UK, plus mayhem and panic?

              How bad is it for the UK and Australia to cut all holiday and conference flights overseas for a month, then restore flights when both nations are clean? I mean it’s a hefty price, but do we want to keep our grandparents or don’t we?

              Our choices are Rock and HardPlace. My draconian option is only draconian if there is some nicer choice I’m avoiding.

              And China is doing quarantine for two weeks. The irony! It is effective.

              I’ve been right from start and consistent.

              You are rephrasing what I’ve already said for weeks. Asymptomatic infections are horrible spreaders. hard to contain. As soon as we knew that they only good option was STOP THE FLIGHTS. Two week quarantine for 100% of incoming people was a must. International quarantine is so cheap compared to domestic quarantines. We only get freedom if we keep the virus entirely out of the country.

              If people break the law by sneaking in, avoiding quarantine, being naughty, we already know how to fix that, Shame first, and then jail. Get the guys with guns on the border, not in our streets.

              We’ve had a justice system for years. Bring back prison. Enforce it. Make the rules so simple even 70IQ people know what the laws are. These are problems we can solve. Admittedly it’s harder for “open border” land locked nations but not impossible.

              260

              • #
                TedM

                Love every last word of that comment. The alternative, that is the choice the Govt. has made, will result in lives that didn’t need to be lost, being lost. Perhaps then the opportunity for a class action against the Govt. Not an action that I would applaud, but one which if it was successful, may be necessary to drive the message home to future Govts. Don’t sacrifice Australian lives for short term economic gain, particularly when that same choice will most likely result in loner term economic loss.

                40

              • #
                TedM

                Longer term

                20

              • #

                If you do successfully keep the virus out of your country it has to be forever.
                The point being missed is that unless we are very lucky this one is going to stay around indefinitely so that whatever Australia does it will get in one day and at that point in the future Australia will be in the same boat as everyone else is today.
                I hope you are right and it disappears like SARS did. Your proposed solution is dependent on that.

                20

              • #

                Getting weary.

                For the 15th time. No we hold it off until:

                1. It mutates and is less of a threat. See Spanish Flu “American Samoa, death toll = 0” OR
                2. We have a vaccine / treatment / stem cell option / CRISPR plan / RNAi. We’ll get something.

                It’s that or we add 400% more ICU or just offer euthanasia to the 80+ eh?

                Stephen, what can I say? I’m baffled. I’ve never suggested closing flights forever. I’ve said the above before and to you.

                Fighting off small outbreaks of a virulent nasty pandemic every few months is so much nicer than losing control of our hospitals, turning people with strokes away, telling old folks they’ve run out of beds and are choosing to save young folks instead. That’s exactly where Italy is at today. For them it was three weeks from 3 patients to breaking hospitals.

                My proposed solution depends on biotech figuring something out. With genetic engineering and a hundred million lives at stake they will. But if we don’t isolate the virus on the planes we will kill tens of thousands of people who don’t need to die first.

                We won’t get “it” one day. It doesn’t stay “it”. RNA viruses are a moving feast. It’s already mutating (though maybe in a bad way — all the more reason to shut it out!).

                We only have to wait it out — two weeks without fresh bodies and the chemical code dies.

                Two weeks.

                10

          • #

            Rather then killing bats which still leaves plenty of other mammals to generate nasty combinations, what we need to do is get really good at beating viruses. Stop pouring money into junk solar panels and use it for medical research. We will find “the antibiotics” of viruses — some method to stop them.

            And if it isn’t bats, now our enemies can make their own viruses. The only solution is to learn how to beat them.

            370

            • #
              Environment Skeptic

              But jo…the banks actually want you to borrow money for solar panels, virus research, and bat research, because in doing so, whatever it is you put up for collateral ends up on the bank balance sheet. Another financial crisis rinse and repeat.

              During the process of printing money out of thin air, a bank can indirectly end up with the most diverse assets held on bank balance sheets that were used as collateral.

              Entire countries and their populations are now on bank balance sheets indirectly.

              So any funding you might want to learn how to beat bats, has to indirectly ultimately come from a financial system which requires you to have an asset to hold up as collateral before it can go ahead and print some fresh money for your new idea, or for a government new idea..

              90

              • #
                Betty Luks

                Environment Skeptic,
                I see you understand how the financial system works at present.

                But events are overtaking our lords and masters and the Australian people need to learn a little of their own history so as to respond to the need:

                “In October, 1911, the Labor Government of Mr. Andrew Fisher introduced a Bill to provide for the establishment of a Common-wealth Bank, with power to carry on all the business generally transacted by banks, including that of a savings bank, to be administered under the control of one man (called the “Governor” of the Bank), appointed for seven years. . .”

                You can read the full story here: https://alor.org/Storage/Library/PDF/Amos%20DJ%20-%20Commonwealth%20Bank.pdf

                As a result of that Bank’s POLICIES, what was PHYSICALLY possible was made FINANCIALLY possible – and Australia finished the war with no national war-DEBT!

                Surely the right question to ask in this situation is:
                Do we have the knowledge and infrastructure to produce what is needed in order to protect our people and contain this nasty virus?

                If the answer is ‘Yes!’ Then surely the banks’ POLICIES – under the direction of Parliament – can be changed to accommodate the need? It is up to us to insist that they do so.

                Sadly, it was under another Labor Government, the Commonwealth Bank, as the People’s bank, was ‘no more’.

                Lament of the Commonwealth Bank

                A hand-maiden, where once I ruled
                A Queen from sea to sea!
                No task too vile to set me to,
                Who strove to make you free.

                God! Did I once stand upright from
                My frightful servitude,
                And wear upon my beaten brow
                The crown of nationhood?

                As in a dream I see them pass,
                My deeds of long ago,
                My bright Homes, filled with happiness,
                In peace and comfort glow.

                My Credit flows in running streams
                To help you in your need;
                It saves you from the usurer’s grip,
                And private banker’s greed.

                When Ruin turns his grim face on
                Your primal industries,
                My Ships steam swift, and carry forth
                Your produce overseas.

                I turn my eyes from what I did
                To what I had decreed—
                A nation freed from want and debt,
                Where no man dwelt in need.

                “Come, grind this people to the dust!”
                I bend in slavery;
                But once I was a nation’s Queen,
                And—almost—made it free!

                50

              • #
                Kalm Keith

                Interesting Betty.

                00

            • #
              Kalm Keith

              Now you’re talking!

              20

            • #
              Ted O'Brien.

              “how fast can we start mass production of antibiotics”

              But this is a virus! Not subject to antibiotics.

              This outbreak is sometimes compared to The Spanish Flu. The Spanish Flu predated antibiotics.

              How many of the Spanish Flu victims died of bacterial pneumonia?

              70

              • #
                Sceptical Sam

                That’s correct Ted. However, without antibiotics all those other bacterial infections come roaring back and swamp the medical system at a time when we can least afford it.

                40

              • #
                Mark D.

                Sam is right Ted,
                If we aren’t making these drugs domestically then we are in peril. I’m under 60YO healthy, active and fit but in November came down with pneumonia (treated successfully with antibiotics) then two months later after weeks of new fever was diagnosed with a blood infection of streptococcus. This was (we hope) successfully treated with 4 weeks of IV antibiotics. No cause for the strep has been found but, almost for certain, I would not be here to type this if not for antibiotics.

                I can stockpile food and water but not these other necessities of modern survival.

                80

            • #
              Len

              I understand bats are important in controlling insects such those that carry the malaria disease. In America they put in bat houses to help control the mosquitoes.

              40

            • #
              Slithers

              Hi Jo,
              Yes you have been consistent all along. We all have been struggling with little to no data and the people who do know are not talking.

              IMHO this is a manufactured virus, the data that has been published about its structure, some SARS, some HIV and lots of corona-xyz.

              These sorts of mutations do not happen out side of a specialist lab. Mutations are invariably singular in structure and effect, they die out or go on to infect their hosts until the next mutation occurs. For the virus to get a SARS component there has to have been a strain that survived and then acquire the HIV parts, (Or the other way round).

              I posted some time ago that some high ranking person in Wuhan knew enough to order those emergency hospitals being built in late November or early December. The people who authorized that construction did not just wave a magic wand and find the space, the equipment and the infrastructure required to construct 1000 bed emergency accommodation for sick people just like that!

              It is probably too late to contain it from becoming a world wide infectious disease, declared pandemic, or not!

              There has to be some serious efforts at a personal level not to catch it and/or not to spread it.

              Personal Hygiene was never so critical.

              The Novel name is indeed a clue as it shouts out this is not a natural mutation!

              00

          • #
            Geoff

            Was Covid-19 designed?

            Who has all the gold?

            Who has all the medicine?

            Is that country’s military sick?

            Is there a vaccine already?

            Who does not care about the death rate?

            Looks like an economic model is playing out.

            Can it take down the US military?

            56

        • #
          David A

          Steven, China tried vigouresly AFTER 4 to 4 million people left Wuhan, when the virus was already very wide spread.

          40

          • #
            Slithers

            Hi David,

            Just take a moment to think about evacuating, officially or from personal choice about 4 million people from a SINGLE city!
            How many Trains, Planes, Buses would it take to be completed in a few days?

            I saw a photo somewhere (On Twitter/Facebook) from an apartment overlooking some railway sidings in Wuhan with around THIRTY high speed trains parked AFTER the lock-down. How can it be that so many long (500+) passenger trains were there. Were they there to be disinfected after being used to evacuate the high ranking officials and families?

            Some one knew and organized that exodus.

            00

        • #
          David A

          S.W. says, “China tried more rigorously than any other society could but it still got out.”

          Sorry, but must disagree. There first big city shut down was announced more then a day before it happened. The city was already in bad shape, hospitals being overrun, and then three to four million people fled the city prior to the quarantine taking affect.

          30

      • #
        John F. Hultquist

        lots of people confused this for the flu

        In Washington State, the hot spot was a facility (about 150) of elderly residents plus staff. Normal deaths were about 3 to 7 per month. Transport to local hospitals of ill folks was routine. Normal procedures, but not special, were being followed.
        Only after deaths spiked above 7 did someone think “Something is going on here.”
        Too late!

        160

  • #
    John McClure

    Antibiotics, also known as antibacterials, are medications that destroy or slow down the growth of bacteria.

    Corona virus is a virus not a bacteria.

    We’re about 1-2 years away from a vaccine so it’s great to see the virus burning out in Asia.

    51

    • #
      Deano

      I’m not medically qualified in any way but I believe antibiotics are sometimes prescribed for viral infections when secondary bacterial infections occur due to the evil work of the initial virus. But yes – a vaccine against COVID 19 would be far preferable and won’t be generally available anytime soon.

      For now however, we should all keep stocking up on thousands of rolls of toilet paper, stacked to the ceiling of every room, piled up in the garage and filling every cupboard until we can’t close the doors.

      110

      • #
        sophocles

        and then pray the electricity supply keeps the water supply and the urban sewage pumps running. Think of a back log … Ummm, no, I’m not going to think about that.

        80

        • #
          noisemarine

          Blocked sewage pipes will be a reality. People have been buying baby wipes as they haven’t been able to find TP.

          90

      • #
        John McClure

        LOL, love the sarcasm!

        They’re concerned it causes diarrhea?

        You’re correct, secondary infections are likely but it wasn’t my point.

        20

    • #
      John McClure

      My comment relates to this article excerpt:
      The video’s pretty full on, but history books will be written about this week. Tucker Carlson’s not boring and there’s plenty to debate, like how fast can we start mass production of antibiotics.

      61

      • #

        Understood John. I was referring to the antibiotic trade that Carson mentioned in the video, but yes, I can see how ambiguous my phrasing was. We still don’t know if people are getting secondary pneumonia or primary (viral) type. Don’t know if antibiotics help. I suspect Chinese docs must know, and would have said something if these were secondaries.

        40

        • #
          John McClure

          What evidence do we have that China hasn’t covered up all of the cause? We have a great deal of evidence China has not cooperated with foreign governments CDC.

          Maybe I’m wrong – sincerely hope so!

          30

  • #

    The two weeks or so delay can operate both ways. It also means that the recent behaviour changes in the West have not yet started to come through in the infection rates.
    I was doubtful about the Chinese figures but I tend to trust South Korea and their behaviour changes do seem to be starting to have an effect.
    The West is a week or so behind South Korea.
    If simple behaviour changes can bring infection rates under control then the infectiousness is not as fearsome as first thought.
    Italy may be an outlier in the West due to their highly tactile social customs (hopefully).
    In any event, the original fears of an apocalypse have now been replaced by the fears of overloaded health services not being able to keep mortality rates as low as they could be. On the back of that fear we have concerns about the economic damage caused by making the adjustments that might help heath services to cope.
    In the end, though it is a short term issue of the matter of months and then we can return to relatively normal economic activity but I’ve no doubt that the biggest change is going to be a retreat from global interdependence towards as much economic independence as each nation’s individual situation will allow.
    I’m looking forward to the emergence of our Commonwealth as a relatively stable and dependable economic superpower based upon independent, sovereign nations with much culture in common.
    My apologies to our brethren worldwide (of every ethnicity) for our recent ill advised sojourn with the outdated, uneconomic, sclerotic, bureaucratic and undemocratic EU.

    141

    • #

      If simple behaviour changes can bring infection rates under control then the infectiousness is not as fearsome as first thought.

      Excellent Stephen, glad to see you’ve come around to my view at last. 😉 All along — my frustration was that this was so easy to stop but we weren’t doing it. All we had to do was stop the flights. Instead many people said that was “unthinkable” and too expensive because they had no idea how dark and how fast this was going to move. We were playing with fire.

      Maybe South Korea has this under control. It’s looking possible. But even four days ago we didn’t know that. If this virus was airborne it would be unstoppable.

      We took a huge stupid risk that we didn’t have to. And it is still going to pan out badly for a lot of people, even if we get this under control in the next four weeks.

      Then we spend the next year worried that it can all start up again. Until we get a treatment or a vaccine. There is plenty of disruption to come.

      I just hope some ballsy leadership appears. The longer they wait the harder it is to reel this in.

      230

      • #

        You might have had to stop the flights forever which would not be possible would it ?
        Given the characteristics of this virus it looks like it will be around indefinitely which means that the best way of depriving it of free bodies is a build up of immunity within the populace.
        We were lucky with SARS in that infectiousness was low enough for containment to be a full solution.
        All we can realistically aim for with this one is to limit the rate of infection so that the curve flattens out enough to allow health services to cope adequately so as to assist those severe cases that need it.
        Clearly, a ban on ALL flights for a couple of months would give a head start but it would have to be faced in due course.
        What would you do with all the Australians trapped abroad and foreign citizens trapped in Oz ?

        63

        • #

          You might have had to stop the flights forever which would not be possible would it ?

          Not. We stop the flights til:
          1. We get data and understand the enemy. How bad IS this virus?
          2. We get rid of all cases within our nation by standard isolation procedure. Starve the virus. No more free bodies to feed it.
          3. The rest of the world copies us (or does it with us) and sooner or later one by one we open up the flights to each nation as it gets rid of the infection. We’re talking weeks.
          4. We were lucky with SARS. As I said from the start, that was easier because there was no asymptomatic infection. Once we knew this one could spread asymptomatically all that has happened since then was utterly text book predictable.
          5. Yes, the deadly exponential curve has been stupidly and recklessly unleashed. People are going to die that didn’t need to. But every day we put off doing what we should have done at the start more people will add to that horrible tally. We can have a big pile or a bigger pile.
          6. It’s not a case of aiming to keep the infection rate lower than the point where our hospital system collapses. Surely we must do it. There is no single more important priority right now. Virtually no cost is too much to stop the death rate going from 0.5% to 2% or worse because we can’t find enough ICU beds?
          7. Australian citizens – bring them home with a 2 week quarantine. There have been no infections in Australia from the Wuhan rescue flights. None from the Diamond Princess.
          8. Then after the calm — Then we will need a two week quarantine for flights from countries that have the virus. When the odd incident occurs — as they will — we go straight for isolation and tracking. No holds barred containment. And by then, we might have antivirals. The virus might have mutated. We might have antibodies or CRISPR something. Gene therapy. Stem Cells.

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            If this virus lingers in many pockets around the world, as seems likely, then your proposals would have to go on indefinitely and any breach of security at any time would still let it loose again.
            You might have to entertain a pretty authoritarian system of government with draconian penalties.

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            • #

              This is my point about the bad news in the last two weeks that this virus may be able to infect dogs and cats. Again, if we only Stopped The Planes when we could have…

              Our choices:
              1. Let it rip. Kill 1% (maybe 4% with hospital systems failing). Mass panic and economies wrecked. People refuse to work. Institutions fail.

              2. Do piecemeal bit by bit quarantine (current plan) which gradually fails, things get worse, we keep raising the plans, the virus stays ahead. Pretty rapid spread in patches. Deaths get spread out and it’s probably worse for the economy.

              3. Mass painful fast complete quarantine. Restore borders. Six weeks from now (like rebuilding a grid from a blackout) we start joining up countries that beat it. We restore flights, but watch for any outbreaks. We police borders. Then we do our best to get other countries sorted so more can join the “clean group”. Australia is easiest country to start from. UK,Ireland good too.

              Mass death is its own draconian penalty. Once we’ve cleaned up — the borders need to be strict. It only has to continue on until we get a treatment / drug /biotech solution. Or the virus evolves (am I repeating myself, I think I am.)

              See what China is doing? They are insisting on a two week quarantine for risky planes. (Must be reading this blog?! 😉 )

              Until there is a cure we live in fear of outbreaks, but if we stop the virus at the border there is no need for any extra authoritarian inside the borders. If and when an outbreak happens, THEN we go authoritarian for a few weeks til it’s gone.

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                Or maybe, just maybe, the changes in individual behaviour that are already happening reduce the rate of spread to something that the health care systems can accommodate (with a few exceptions) and in a couple of months it will have subsided.
                Meanwhile, mild infections amongst large numbers lead to herd immunity that keeps it suppressed well into the future.
                The unknown factor is as our health minister said today.
                Is the improvement in China due to many mild infections creating immunity or is it a result of their dramatic containment measures ?
                If the former, then things look more hopeful. If the latter, then it will surge again as the Chinese return to work.
                I suspect the former because Italy must have had a substantial spread before the number of serious cases got large enough to hit the health system. The evidence is that in the UK, and presumably elsewhere, we now have many cases that caught it in Italy before anyone realised what was going on so the number of mild cases is likely substantial.
                The four UK deaths so far involve people already on the cusp of death from other ailments and many have recovered with minimal medical intervention.
                Even our own ‘super spreader’ barely noticed it and all infected by him have recovered.
                My local hospital at Arrowe Park took people from the Cruise ship and on arrival four proved positive but the others on the same ‘plane remained uninfected and have now been released so it may well be that fairly modest precautionary hygiene related measures are sufficient in many situations.
                I suppose the point I am making is not that you are wrong but that the authorities might not have got it as wrong as one might think.

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                Environment Skeptic

                I think the lock-down logic means we cannot use hospital ICU’s. Hospitals need to keep the virus out. Hospitals are burdened with too many super bugs as it is. Using the lock-down logic?

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              • #
                Bill In Oz

                Such plain common sense Jo !
                Than you !
                Why can’t others here, like Stephen Wilde & Keith, understand this common sense ?
                It’s their own lives and lifestyles you common sense saves !

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              • #

                “Is the improvement in China due to many mild infections creating immunity or is it a result of their dramatic containment measures ?”

                Total infections in China is 80k /1.3b or 1 part in 16,000 of their population. Let’s say it is ten times more or 1 in 1600.

                China can talk about herd immunity when infectious cases are about 500 times higher.

                Stephen, you are working admirably hard to defend a dead thesis. Give up OK?

                but keep asking questions, please, because this is useful to help me come up with better ways to communicate.

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                Kalm Keith

                Bill @ 7 1 1 1 3

                I think that you missed the point of this.

                It wasn’t contradicting what Jo said, just a long term inevitability that it would never be fully eradicated.

                http://joannenova.com.au/2020/03/did-i-say-disruption-was-coming/#comment-2288395

                The other aspect of this, that recent comment here has brought out, concerns the initial ghastly news that came from Wuhan.

                It seems that the disease began, and continued, and continued unnoticed and unchecked for way too long.

                Coupled with the expected overcrowding of accommodation in a big city during the festival period it was explosive and by the time we heard about it was a disaster from a very unusual set of circumstances.

                So far in the West we haven’t had this explosion but I’m in no way downplaying the seriousness of the situation.

                I fully agree with Jo that a two week shutdown would have been good if coordinated worldwide.

                The is a problem with complete shutdown and eventually the cure will be worse than the disease. That’s a matter of judgement as to when to resume normal.

                Italy is an interesting guide.

                KK

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              Kalm Keith

              From earlier;

              “It will eventually reach everyone so there are two things;

              Fist, slow the spread to even out the load on medical facilities,

              and

              second, slow the spread to give the virus a chance to mutate into a less threatening version that gives older people a better chance of survival.

              ? KK

              http://joannenova.com.au/2020/03/wikipedia-deletes-the-list-of-scientists-who-are-skeptics-of-the-sacred-consensus/#comment-2286710

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            John McClure

            How can anyone mitigate a “thing” no one has been paying attention to?

            We presume the CDC, WHO, and our governments are paying attention to.

            They aren’t, tragically it also looks like our UN and CDCs are fubar!

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        John McClure

        Hi JoNova,
        Your coverage has been the best these past few months.

        Consider, in relation to the best source for data, is it the UN WHO or the CDC?

        CDC is the obvious choice: apolitical.

        So, I’m running the CDC traps here in the USA and suggest you do as well in Australia. CDC are Scientists who care for all humans!

        If I find anything – you’ll be the first to know.

        Issue: stems from China without any assistance to CDC?

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        • #
          John McClure

          Just spent an hour, there’s doesn’t appear to be CDC Global coverage effort online.

          Where are we all hiding the international CDC?

          Please tell me it isn’t so; WHO!

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        • #

          I prefer CDC as a source. WHO is UN. Horrible self serving fools.

          But I am gobsmacked that the US dropped the ball on testing. Trump did so well to close the border with China early on, but I get the feeling he has no idea about virology and someone was asleep at the wheel…

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            John McClure

            Our CDC decided to reinvent the corona virus test kit. It appears their initial version failed which delayed testing for mitigation.

            Dumb and dumber moment!

            20

            • #
              Sceptical Sam

              Nobody can blame President Trump for that, surely?

              20

            • #
              David A

              Also, I understand that the O admin set it up so only the CDC could produce viral tests, and just now that was undone, and now many many labs can produce the tests. This screw up by the US CDC was not P. Trumps area of expertise for certain. Once he realizes how bad the testing screw up was, it is within his per-view to fire some of these rats.

              There are documented cases of CDC members being hysterical over P Trump’s election. They also hate that he cut their budget for foreign nation work, which P Trump felt was the job of wealthy neighbors to support, and such aid was likely a corrupt gift to the well connected deep state.
              My guess is that he was lead into the “look how bad the flu is comments by the CDC. (remember how he mentioned he had just learned about the number of annual flu deaths, and much greater it was then this virus?) That was right before he talked to the press. Well who told him that? I really think he was set up. Likewise he was likely set up to minimize this virus to stop panic. (a real concern) The exponential potential of all this certainly should have been communicated to him.

              As to his cruise ship comments, he may have not known how the Diamond Princess became a horrible infectious trap. So his “I do not want the numbers to go up” was in harmony to his constant “don’t panic” comments. I really think it was minimized to him, and he was told, everything is under control, look how bad the common flu is.

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            Andrew McRae

            You did say “disruption is coming”, but are you expecting this?
            https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/09/us/politics/trump-coronavirus.html

            The president, who played down the virus threat earlier in the day, made an unscheduled evening appearance in the White House briefing room after two Republican members of Congress who have spent time with him in recent days, including one who just rode with him on Air Force One, put themselves into quarantine following exposure to the virus.

            And it’s a virus that mainly kills people aged over 60. Hmmm. Might start seeing a bit more action out of USA after DJT rubbing shoulders with TGR. Certainly the Dems wouldn’t look a gift corpse in the mouth.

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        • #
          Lewis P Buckingham

          The scientific feed is on Cell.
          https://www.cell.com/2019-nCOV
          There is no paywall.
          Incidentally the latent period of infection could be as short as two days before symptoms emerge.

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    Tim Spence

    Seems paradoxical that while the Chinese were quarantining entire cities under threat of arms, the Italians now threatening quarantined citizens with fines or prison for unwarranted movement, we are still sending out cruise ships with 3,000 people aboard, cruise ships that are notorious floating incubators.

    I haven’t heard of any special cleaning of transport hubs and airports either, or of the aircraft for that matter.

    But the Bolivarian Communists of Venezuela and Cuba seem to be still awaiting their first cases so perhaps one form of Communism has a plus side /sarc.

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    Virtual Reality

    This is what you get when you can’t do anything yourself. You become dependent on everyone else for everything. Surely it is cheaper to produce in a cheap labor country. Surely you will make more profit for your business. Sure your competitors will do it and you have to follow suit. So in the end most European economies have become dependent on importing all their industrial goods and then wonder why the supply chain can be cut. Not being able to produce the medicines you need because they all come from a supplier who is not even in your own country is the culmination of 50 years of relocating all industrial production to foreign soil.

    The result is that we have become a pure service-based economy. This is not job diversity, but a monocultural labour market. It is a vulnerable economy based on a perfect supply line that never fails. However, if that supply line fails, then good luck to that economy.

    Remember to stay calm, think first, act cautiously and help each other. That is the rationale that we should stick to. Anything else is irrational and should be avoided.

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      OriginalSteve

      Australia could reboot from its retired tradies and machinists etc, it would be a veritable “Dads Army” required, but would work.

      Globalism is a form of creating a form of interdependence, so that unless everyone is on the same task, it all falls apart. Or put another way – globalism forces people to play ball, so its a form of economic extortion…..

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      Sceptical Sam

      Beggar thy competitor means, in the long-run, you beggar your country.

      Beggar thy neighbour, beggar thy nation.

      Does anybody make pharmaceuticals in Australia?

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      • #
        Yonniestone

        There’s thousands of home labs in the country, they won’t cure anything but you won’t know or care if you are sick.

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    TedM

    Some deliberate disruption in the short term could save us from a massive disruption in the longer term. And a lot of deaths to boot.

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    UK’s Nigel Farage branded the Government’s response to coronavirus “negligent”, after an Italian journalist said no checks were carried out when he flew into a London airport yesterday. Federico Gatti, a broadcast journalist for Mediaset, wrote of his surprise that he was given no information about coronavirus when landing in the UK and was not checked for any symptoms of the deadly virus. It comes after Italian authorities imposed strict quarantine measures on more than 16million people after the number of cases of COVID-19 soared to over 7,300.

    Mr Gatti wrote on Twitter: “Just landed in London from Milan. Zero checks. No info. How can it be possible? #COVID2019.”

    He added: “Surprisingly enough I managed to fly out of a city in ‘lockdown’, only to find a ‘business as usual’ atmosphere in LND.

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    • #
      Bill In Oz

      I suspect that here in Australia it is possible for people from Milan and Italy, to do exactly the same.

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    tonyb

    Both Italy and France are highly tactile, the Brits tend to be more reticent. Sneezing tends to be into handkerchiefs and tissues not into the air.

    We had our first 2 cases the end of January like Italy and are up to 273 but with new figures expected in an hour or two. Are we just at the start of the Bell curve? Will our curve be much flatter because of our reticent social habits or just lucky up to now?

    With 3 deaths to date -all of whom were people with multiple health problems-we are way below the number of expected deaths through normal flu, which might have proved fatal anyway for the 3 concerned

    We had expected to get our stuff this morning in splendid isolation but the coffee shops were busy, the garden centre busy, the local hotel had 4 coaches in-at least 2 more coaches than expected at this time of the year.

    Will we pay for our actions later? Although the incidence of hand washing and taking precautions are certainly much higher than before the publicity, I suspect many older Brits remember the BSE scare where the experts predicted 400,000 deaths and are sceptical, as to date we have had 177.

    When people in authority cry wolf all the time it is difficult for ordinary people to know when a large pack of wolves has actually arrived

    it will be interesting to see what happens in Italy where the widely reported in advance extended quarantine allowed many people to flee to the south where presumably there will be a big spike in coming weeks

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      tonyb

      Good news. The latest figures for the UK are just out and whilst there were 64 new cases yesterday this was down to 46 today. There was one more death of someone with underlying health problems.

      Whether the figures were higher yesterday and lower today due to the weekend and that today is a working day I don’t know.

      People can be hypochondriacs and as the tests are free via the NHS I don’t think there are thousands of latent cases in the pipeline, although they may be appearing in the future if the bell curve becomes more pronounced.

      My big concern at present is that this has caused financial mayhem and whether the situation warrants the reaction we will only know in due course

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      Bill In Oz

      I agree with your remark about Italy & France being tactile nations. And with this virus such behaviours may make a major difference in how quickly this disease spreads. The same is true for countries like Spain, Portugal & Latin America.

      So not shaking hands or hugging makes sense while this virus threatens to spread in Australia.

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    • #
      David A

      Tony – “With 3 deaths to date -all of whom were people with multiple health problems-we are way below the number of expected deaths through normal flu.”

      Normal flu is one death per thousand.
      Way to early in the serious case curve to know the GB mortality rate. One must wait until all cases are resolved, either cured, or fatal.

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    • #
      OriginalSteve

      It occurs to me, and as I have said all along – the danger of this thing os the social and economic dislocation to be caused.

      The death rates are actually currently lower than the normal flu – highly infectious does not equate to deadly. I think thanks to the MSM , the sheep are spooked, but wont go along with whatever monstering of the population the authorities decide they want to do.

      Just this morning I was talking to a security guard at work, who thinks its all over hyped and a complete over-reaction. Now equate that to most tradies having similar no BS approach to news, and most of the blue collar work force thinking its nonsense. The white collar are also realizin the figures dont match the hype.

      So, the Establishment can only hype it so far, or people will just tell them to get lost, which I think is close. The best they can do is let it die off quietly and put it down to a bit of a botch job…..

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      • #

        Steve, do tell where you get those low death rates from. I’ve seen 0.5% up to 8%.

        Influenza = 0.1% and infects a much smaller percent of the pop.

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          OriginalSteve

          Hi Jo

          Just tracking the cases via the media reports predominately. Getting figures from the Italian health system has proven rather trying….

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          • #
            Sceptical Sam

            Steve,

            The very best stats are available here:

            http://coronaviruslivestats.com/

            Have a look at Italy:

            Confirmed cases = 9,172

            Deaths = 463.

            I’ll let you do the calculation for Italian death rates.

            When you do, you’ll note that it’s well above the WHO’s estimate of 3.4%.

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            • #
              David A

              …and it is not completed cases, like the one tenth of one percent for the flu. More then 50% of those 9,000 plus cases have not had time to produce any deaths. Imagine no more cases in, and the 463 deaths could easily double. That is a ten percent mortality rate, 100 times greater then the flu. now it is likely Italy was late in the testing efforts, and they only tested symptomatic and likely exposed for some time, which will lower that ten percent. However it is also likely that many died from pneumonia, caused by this, but also were not tested. I think the 2 to 3.5 CFR may be reasonable in many cases. Plus the R naught is higher, and the population lacks developed immunity.

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        • #
          TedM

          Those low death rates are being talked up in the radio media. Unfortunately by presenters that I normally consider reliable and well researched presenters. Some well known radio personalities will end up with egg on their faces.

          10

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          OriginalSteve

          Jo,

          I wasn’t happy with my previous response to you, but now I have something better to offer – official Italian Higher Institite of health figures covering age & cause of death.

          https://translate.googleusercontent.com/translate_c?depth=1&hl=en&prev=search&rurl=translate.google.co.uk&sl=it&sp=nmt4&u=https://www.iss.it/en/comunicati-stampa/-/asset_publisher/fjTKmjJgSgdK/content/id/5286166&usg=ALkJrhi_ohvDxPa8pUXMRLrmx-jmCk9SIw

          “CS N ° 15/2020 ISS Study On 105 deceased with Covid-2019, average age 81 years and pre-existing pathologies in two thirds of cases

          “ISS, March 5, 2020

          “The average age of deceased and positive COVID-2019 patients is 81 years, they are mostly men and in more than two thirds of cases they have three or more pre-existing diseases. An analysis of the data of

          “105 Italian patients who died on 4 March, conducted by the Istituto Superiore di Sanità, which underlines that there are 20 years of difference between the average age of the deceased and that of the virus positive patients.

          “The Report concerns 73 patients who died in Lombardy, 21 in Emilia Romagna, 7 in Veneto and 3 in the Marche region, and is based on the data obtained by completing a questionnaire developed specifically for the purpose of detecting death cases.

          “The average age of the patients examined is 81 years, about 20 years higher than that of the patients who contracted the infection, and women are 28 (26.7%).

          “The majority of deaths 42.2% occurred in the age group between 80 and 89 years, while 32.4% were between 70 and 79, 8.4% between 60 and 69, 2.8% between 50 and 59 and 14.1% over 90 years.

          “Women who died after contracting COVID-2019 infection are older than men (median age women 83.4 – median age men 79.9). The average number of pathologies observed in this population is 3.4 (median 3, Standard Deviation 2.1).

          “Overall, 15.5% of the sample had 0 or 1 pathologies, 18.3% had 2 pathologies and 67.2% had 3 or more pathologies. The most represented comorbidity is hypertension (present in 74.6% of the sample), followed by ischemic heart disease (70.4%) and diabetes mellitus (33.8%). The median time from the onset of symptoms to hospitalization was 5 days and the median of the time between hospitalization and death was 4 days.

          “”Although preliminary, these data confirm the observations made so far in the rest of the world on the main characteristics of patients – comments the president of ISS Silvio Brusaferro -, in particular on the fact that the elderly and people with pre-existing diseases are more at risk. These are very fragile people, who often live in close contact and who we must protect as much as possible “.

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          OriginalSteve

          Second ( more recent ) Italian update 07/03/2020

          In Italian

          https://www.iss.it/comunicati-stampa/-/asset_publisher/fjTKmjJgSgdK/content/id/5289474

          In English

          https://translate.googleusercontent.com/translate_c?depth=1&hl=en&prev=search&rurl=translate.google.co.uk&sl=it&sp=nmt4&u=https://www.iss.it/en/comunicati-stampa/-/asset_publisher/fjTKmjJgSgdK/content/id/5289474%3F_com_liferay_asset_publisher_web_portlet_AssetPublisherPortlet_INSTANCE_fjTKmjJgSgdK_redirect%3Dhttps%253A%252F%252Fwww.iss.it%252Fen%252Fcomunicati-stampa%253Fp_p_id%253Dcom_liferay_asset_publisher_web_portlet_AssetPublisherPortlet_INSTANCE_fjTKmjJgSgdK%2526p_p_lifecycle%253D0%2526p_p_state%253Dnormal%2526p_p_mode%253Dview%2526_com_liferay_asset_publisher_web_portlet_AssetPublisherPortlet_INSTANCE_fjTKmjJgSgdK_cur%253D0%2526p_r_p_resetCur%253Dfalse%2526_com_liferay_asset_publisher_web_portlet_AssetPublisherPortlet_INSTANCE_fjTKmjJgSgdK_assetEntryId%253D5289474&usg=ALkJrhjcaK0XKsGemc_22wJtASNwpQ4JRA

          English translation

          “CS n ° 17/2020 – Coronavirus, fever and breathlessness common symptoms for Covid-19 positive deaths

          “ISS March 7, 2020

          “In deceased and COVID-19 positive patients the most common onset symptoms are fever and dyspnoea (difficulty breathing), while gastrointestinal symptoms (diarrhea) and hemoptysis, the emission of blood from the respiratory tract are less common for example with a cough. This was stated by the analysis of the data of 155 Italian patients who died on 6 March conducted by the Istituto Superiore di Sanità, which updates the one conducted on 105 cases made known on 5 March.

          “Fever and dyspnoea are present as onset symptoms in 86% and 82% of cases examined respectively. Other initial symptoms found are cough (50%), and precisely diarrhea and hemoptysis (5%). “These data suggest that for those with only fever it is sufficient to alert their doctor while staying at home – explains Silvio Brusaferro, president of the ISS -, while in the presence of both symptoms it is better to contact 112 or 118.

          “In any case, we remember that you must absolutely avoid going to your doctor or emergency room on your own, to avoid exposing staff and patients to risks. Following this and all the other prevention rules dictated in these days is fundamental to slow down the epidemic as much as possible and protect the most fragile people. Individual measures to limit social contacts are fundamental to be able to fight the virus, we appeal to everyone’s sense of responsibility ”.

          “As regards virus-related mortality, the updated data confirm those of the first study.

          “The mean age of deceased and COVID-19 positive patients is 81.4. There are 48 women (31.0%).
          The average number of pathologies observed in this population is 3.6.
          Deaths occur mostly after 80 years and in people with important pre-existing diseases:

          “In detail, mortality is :

          14.3% over 90 years,
          8.2% between 80 and 89,
          4.0% between 70 and 79,
          1.4% between 60 and 69 and
          0.1% between 50 and 59,
          while there are no deaths under this age group.

          “Overall, 21 patients (15.5% of the sample) had 0 or 1 pathology,
          25 (18.5%) had 2 pathologies and
          70 (60.3%) had 3 or more pathologies;

          “for 19 patients it has not yet been possible to recover the information.

          “Hypertension and ischemic heart disease are confirmed as the most frequent pathologies.

          “Italy-China comparison

          “The update of the data confirms that in all age groups lethality in the Italian population is lower than that observed in China. The overall lethality in Italy out of 155 cases is 2.9% against 2.3% in China. The general figure is higher in the Italian population because the average age of the Italian population is greater than in China (44 vs 37 years – WHO 2013 estimates) and in Italy there is a greater number of patients over the age of 80 .

          “”The analysis of these data allows to carry out evaluations on which to establish recommendations and behaviors – underlines Brusaferro – therefore it is essential that the surveillance system is constantly updated with the medical records of the deceased by hospitals”.

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            David A

            Steve, we are way to early in the mortality curve to know if those percentages will hold. Average time from infection to death is 3 weeks. Socurrent deaths are mostly the most vulnerable.

            The percentages will somewhat hold up, but not to the extreme it is now.

            You should acknowledge that your statement regarding death rate being lower than the flu are very wrong.

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              OriginalSteve

              “You should acknowledge that your statement regarding death rate being lower than the flu are very wrong.”

              Yeah, we will see.

              Italy has a higher average age, so the death rate figures are skewed toward higher values, logically.

              Time will tell if I’m right.

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                David A

                Currently the global death to cured ratio is 6 percent. It is over 3 percent to total cases. That is plus 30 to 60 times more deadly then the flu.

                You are placing an extreme long shot.

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    Richard Ilfeld

    Mr. Carlson asserts that China makes 95% of the medical supplies or precursors for the US.
    One presumes the number are similar for Australia.

    It is difficult to walk through a WalMart or Target or Australian Discount store and make a direct case for government
    intervention in housewares or dry goods. “buy American” campaigns have been persistently ineffective.

    It has even been difficult to get energy production declared strategically necessary. But finding the will to re-onshore
    industry may be politically possible if one starts with medical supplies in the wake of the current crisis.

    In the US, our government has asked the 3M company to make dozens of millions of protective masks. Can we decide that
    should again be a routine part of our economy, after this crisis is over?. We always take the floggers of alternative
    energies to task for only considering a fraction of the true costs of their plans (and they in turn suggest we consider the “pollution”
    costs of conventional fuels). When 3M allowed the production of masks to go to China, it was based on a certain cost accounting.

    Now that some of the ancillary costs are becoming clear — perhaps a period pf re-evaluation can follow.

    It is worth noting that our companies have told us the problem — and it is not “cheap labor”.
    It is government pushing the cost of dealing with environmental and social issues within the structure of the corporation,
    socializing the problems of management if you will, and trading with the world without an effort to level the playing field
    where government wears the shirt and holds the whistle of officialdom. And it is the crony-capitalists who hold hands with the
    “leaders”.

    We have met the enemy and it is us.

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      Sceptical Sam

      Thanks to Jo’s report above I read the made in designation of my blood pressure medication.

      Yep. Made in India. And it’s not the generic either.

      So I wandered down to my Priceline pharmacy to get a couple of packets.

      Nope. I got the last one available.

      The pharmacist was not aware that India had shut down all pharmaceutical exports. She was very nice however, and informed me that their guidelines are that I should have two clear month’s supply. Accordingly, she put my name down on their list so I can pick up another month’s supply in a couple of days. 🙂

      We’ll see.

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    Geoffrey Williams

    Agree pretty well with what’s been said in the preceeding blogs – Jo’s in particular.
    In Australia we have to do more, and quickly in order to slow the spread of the virus down.
    If we can slow the spread we buy time, time to think, reason and time to act.
    But the government is not taking the proper measures to do this and Greg Hunt looks like a frightened rabbit. The message from the media is don’t panic, so they highlight the panic buying of toilet rolls to make us all feel more responsible and ashamed of panic actions, just keep washing our hands we’ll be ok right? No Stop importing the disease.
    GeoffW

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      Hope you are writing those letters to The West Geoffrey. We need you!

      Every time they say “dont panic” more people feel panicky.

      But I think the moment of action has surely come. Things are about to run wild here and surely they know it and will finally do something.

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        Sceptical Sam

        Here’s a copy of my correspondence to my local MP, Celia Hammond that I sent on 4 May 2020.

        “Ms. Celia Hammond MP
        Member for Curtin
        414 Rokeby Rd
        Subiaco WA 6008

        Dear Ms Hammond

        Re: Corona Virus Infections.

        I live in Subiaco. You are my local member.

        Could you please advise me why the Government, of which you are a member, has not shut down flights from Italy and South Korea?

        The international figures from John Hopkins CSSE show that South Korea has the second highest infection rate behind China while Italy is placed third. In fourth place is Iran.

        The Government has shut down flights from China and Iran, but not from South Korea or Italy.

        The John Hopkins data may be accessed here:

        https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

        My friend James Kwan has recently died at Charles Gairdner Hospital from this disease. His wife Theresa is in a serious state. It is only a matter of time before we see it take off in Australia, unless the Government is a bit more proactive.

        This infection has demonstrated its propensity to exponential growth.

        Immigration from Italy and South Korea must be curtailed.

        Yours sincerely,

        Name and address
        Dated 4 may 2020.”

        She must be very, very busy.

        How do I know that?

        She hasn’t had time to sign a reply. Not even an acknowledgment. Not even from one of her many staff. An email would do.

        I’m just now penning off another missive. I might even hand-deliver it. 🙂

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      • #
        Andrew McRae

        Projections of doom!
        Get your projections of doom here.
        Get `em while they’re hot!

        We should not look at the rising case numbers and ask “what is going to happen?”
        We should look at the possible projections and ask “which future will we make happen?”

        01

    • #
      TedM

      Give some of these Pollies a bit of a break. They take their advice from the so called experts. In the case of Greg Hunt it will be the Commonwealth dept. of Health. (Or whatever it is called). If you want to target anyone, target the advisers.

      00

      • #
        Kalm Keith

        I would target GHunt for not selecting better advisors.

        On radio yesterday he went on about how Australians stick together and how we had come through the fires and we would come through this.

        Waffle, with those traumatized by the fires a thing of the past: let’s move on, O.K.

        KK

        20

      • #
        Sceptical Sam

        Nonsense.

        I don’t vote for the advisers.

        Or, in other words:

        Hold the organ grinder responsible, not the monkey.

        20

        • #
          TedM

          What do you expect a minister to do? Not listen to so called expert advice. It’s the system and not the individual that is flawed. If the minister rejected the advice of the “expert” he would be open to condemnation. Greg Hunt did not select the “Chief Medical officer” but has little choice but to take his advice.

          And Skeptical Sam you new how the system worked when you voted.

          20

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          • #
            Bill In Oz

            If the CMO is dopey
            Hunt must sack him !
            Get another monkey !

            20

          • #
            Sceptical Sam

            What do you expect a minister to do?

            I expect the Minister to make decisions in the interest of the safety and security of Australians. Not hide behind the skirt of some unaccountable shiny-bum.

            I can hear Hunt now: “Oooohhhh” he moans, “I thought the CMO would know. How was I to know that it would turn out like this? How was I to know? Ooohhhhh. Ooohhhh. Ooohhh.”

            Then, with mock tears in his eyes he says: “What else could we have done? The Minister for Education and the Minister for Tourism didn’t want any restrictions at all. You know…. I was the person who pushed the travel restrictions. I saved thousands of lives by insisting that the 14 day quarantine was placed or Iranians and Chinese from the mainland. Nobody told me about Italy. How was I to know?”

            “And, the States and territories dropped the ball very badly. Their poor management of this terrible epidemic was the primary cause of all the deaths. The Commonwealth provided all the resources and support they asked for. But they failed.”

            Then, getting into the swing of the blame shifting, he cries “the Minister for Industry told me that Australian industry couldn’t take a complete shut-down of inbound travel And, and, and the Treasurer…. yes the Treasurer” he says with a gleam in his eye “was adamant that the economy would be badly damaged if the Prime Minister shut it down”. But yes, perhaps the Prime Minister should have shut it down. In fact, I was in favour of that option but I lost the argument in Cabinet.”

            “Oh, God” he wails, “now they’re all dead. They should have listened to me.”

            Then, with the look of confidence, and in a firmer tone he says “but, as Acting Prime Minister, I can assure all Australians that my Government will undertake a very thorough review of what went wrong to ensure that it doesn’t happen again. Ever. Those responsible will be held to account.”

            30

          • #
            GD

            What do you expect a minister to do?

            As well as listening to his advisers, Greg Hunt could also read Jo Nova’s blog.

            20

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    john

    Just a quick question for Australians. Remember how temp data was fabricated by the government? Can the Viral infection numbers there be relied on? How manybtest kits are on hand?

    We believe the numbers are higher in the US as economic impact takes precedence. A local mayor here ran television PSA’s urging the public to go shopping, eat out and no problems were happening. 3 days later he was put in quarantine after contracting the virus at a party with other town officials.

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    • #
      WXcycles

      There is a god.

      70

    • #
      TedM

      I would give no credence to official figures coming out of China. There have been interviews with nursing staff and also a manager of a crematorium plus access to some local Govt papers by the Epoch Times. It would appear that the CCP is significantly understating both cases and deaths. Much of the Australian Chinese community are suggesting that the figures are being understated by at least a factor of ten. This is supported by a number of social media posts.

      I wouldn’t trust Iran’s figures either, as local Govt. officials have given much higher numbers that the Govt.

      I would expect very poor accounting figures from most of the third world countries.

      Italy on the other hand appears to be completely open and determined to give the facts.

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    • #
      Slithers

      Hui John,
      I live in an old persons complex with around 150 elderly people in various states of health.

      I asked the Care manager, a senior RN, how many test kits did he have?

      The answer was rather shocking, ‘None but ten are on order!’
      He declined to say how long ago that request for kits had been submitted.

      This was as of last Friday, that order has not been filled as yet.

      10

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    john

    Coronavirus testing tents set up outside Boston hospital

    https://www.google.com/amp/s/whdh.com/news/coronavirus-testing-tents-set-up-outside-boston-hospital/amp/

    BOSTON (WHDH) – Special coronavirus testing tents have been set up outside Boston’s Brigham and Women’s Hospital as the number of presumptive positive cases in Massachusetts continues to climb.

    The tents are only being used to test individuals who have been exposed to someone with coronavirus or who meet specific CDC criteria, according to the hospital.

    “We understand that many people are eager to be screened but at this time COVID-19 testing is not open to members of the general public.

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    john

    Go Home, Virus Conference Tells Attendees Headed to Boston Event

    Organizers of a virus conference in Boston are telling attendees to go home as they switch to a virtual event because of the growing threat of catching Covid-19.

    The conference on retroviruses and opportunistic infections, organized by the International Antiviral Society–USA, is still going ahead but not at the city’s Hynes Convention Center as was planned. Instead, all meetings, presentations and panels will be done virtually.

    https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2020-03-08/go-home-virus-conference-tells-attendees-headed-to-boston-event

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  • #
    Susan Fraser

    Dear Jo,
    Thank you for your hard work on keeping us honestly informed. We appreciate your warnings and reminders to write letters, which I have done today.

    Your replies to contributors are so helpful in boiling issues down to the bare essence.

    Can you remind us please on how we know Covid19 is an asymptomatic infection?

    All the best
    Susan

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      Bill In Oz

      I want to second Susan’s comment. Thanks Jo for sounding alarm bell weeks ago And continuing to sound it. loud.

      As each day passes and we see what is happening in China, South Korea, Iran, Italy and other countries, It is clear that our own government has put the economic interests of business ahead of our entire nation’s health.

      In fact despite all the platitudes coming from the pollies, we have been betrayed !

      Meanwhile ordinary Australians are taking their fate in lives into their own hands and doing what they can to minimise the risks and the problems : so toilet paper is sold out ! 🙂 But so too is hand sanitiser !
      And Qantas now is cutting it’s flights and retrenching staff, because many Australians are not flying places on planes to avoid being infected. And cruise ships are cactus !

      I think within 2 weeks we will all be wearing face masks as well. Again to avoid being infected or more importantly to avoid infecting others while not having any symptoms …

      And yes we already have face masks & hand sanitisers.

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      el gordo

      Hi Susan, I found this at The Lancet.

      ‘Estimates suggest that about 80% of people with COVID-19 have mild or asymptomatic disease, 14% have severe disease, and 6% are critically ill, implying that symptom-based control is unlikely to be sufficient unless these cases are only lightly infectious.’

      30

      • #
        Susan Fraser

        Thank you El Gordo
        I did find WHO-China Joint Mission on Covid-19 Report 16-24 Feb on pg 12 under Signs, symptoms etc “Asymptomatic infection has been reported…”
        Though not thought to be a major driver of transmission news reports the first death in San Francisco a woman in her 60s with no known travel or contact with infected individuals

        I saw NZ Ministry of Health advice to the NZ Catholic Bishops Council stating that covid 19 “does not transmit when there are no symptoms (even in an infected person who may later show symptoms)” misquoting the WHO Report.
        I’ve written to the NZCBC to give them the correct quote and asked Radio NZ journalists to find out why MoH is giving out incorrect information

        00

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    Konrad

    The bottom line is that we need to stop the flights. Every other measure will fail if we don’t stop the flights.

    The economic impact of stopping the flights is nothing compared to what Italy, Iran and China are now experiencing.

    Only once the flights are stopped can we begin to get on top of this. That will involve proper isolation and testing of all the people we shouldn’t have let in including 11,000 students. That’s NAT on blood, urine and stool and forget the throat swabs. Temperature checks and questions about cold/flu symptoms are useless in preventing this spreading.

    And above all our government needs to show that it has fully abandoned the inane belief that this virus will naturally mutate to a less deadly strain. It simply has too much evolutionary latitude. Hope is not a plan.

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    • #
      Environment Skeptic

      Konrad, the virus has already mutated and likely keep doing so.
      https://nextstrain.org/ncov

      I have relatives in Italy that went back from Australia and have been trying for years to come back, but ongoing economic crisis over there has been so bad for the past ten years they will never be able to re-capitalize and sell the house and come back.

      What my cousin ended up doing was to send one of his sons back here and has been here for the past 3 months. He is not going back to Italy any time soon.

      My cousin says there is so much corruption in Italy, that it has no hope of ever recovering for the ongoing economic crisis over there.

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    Deplorable Lord Kek

    “NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian has called for calm as the number of infections climbs: “I also want to stress that it’s very highly unlikely that if you have the virus that you will have an extreme reaction or an extreme event related to it,” she said.”

    She should tell that to the 463 dead out of 9,172 confirmed cases in Italy.

    90

    • #
      WXcycles

      Gladys Berejiklian has demonstrated in depth that she’s not too concerned about preserving life.

      90

      • #
        Geoffrey Williams

        Agreed; Gladys’s comments regarding young people not having worry about the virus effecting them and then about business as usual, was inappropriate and thoughtless towards the rest of the community.
        GeoffW

        60

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    Penguinite

    Tucker Carlson is right on the money! If Australia fails to enact to enact total survival plans we are f**ked. To minimise the chances of going down the gurgler, like Italy, we must stop worrying about global warming as an existential threat! The Chinese virus is the enemy! China controls our economy!They are the existential threat!

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    RickWill

    Share markets are now beginning the slide I expected. All ords now down 25% from its peak less than a month ago. That is three years of “value” vanished in a few weeks.

    Iron ore spot price is defying my expectations – maybe cyclone impact on Rio’s operations more significant than reported.

    50

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    Anton

    The Italian lockdown, such as it is, has just been extended to the whole country.

    70

    • #
      el gordo

      Lockdown

      ‘People should stay at home unless they have solid reasons related to work, health or other special needs, Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte says, specifying that commuting to work will still be allowed.’ SMH

      40

  • #
    Evidence Please

    Antibiotics for viruses?, or antibiotics for bacteria?.

    21

    • #

      Even with a viral plague running, millions of Americans will need antibiotics this year for other reasons or for secondary pnumonia, and if they can’t get them, the mortality rate will be terrible.

      110

      • #
        OriginalSteve

        Makes you wonder if the US cant ramp up antibiotic production quick enough, could we see a return to pre 1930s medical conditions?

        Logically, any drug manuafacturing exported to China used to be done in the USA.

        30

        • #
          David-of-Cooyal-in-Oz

          Hope the US didn’t sell the exclusive patents to China.
          Cheers
          Dave B

          40

          • #
            Sceptical Sam

            When did China ever worry about patent theft? It’s an integral part of their standard business model.

            Karma.

            What goes around comes around, me old china.

            30

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    Ross

    Completely OT, but a follow on from the other day’s comment on the UK Government being wedded to the AGW program and the possible backlash from voters, especially those outside London to the north.

    https://www.breitbart.com/europe/2020/03/09/delingpole-rishi-ratioed-everyone-hates-uk-chancellors-green-budget-plans/

    The new Chancellor got a dose of what Boris can expect in the future, if they push ahead with the mad plans.

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      Deplorable Lord Kek

      I (unfortunately) heard the UK question time the other day.

      Literally every second question is spruiking ‘climate change’.

      70

  • #
    RickWill

    It would not surprise me if the Grand Prix ends up a closed event. It is going ahead for sure but Victoria may be in locked down by the weekend. (Can the government move that fast?)

    There is also some prospect of the AFL season being cancelled. A Fremantle player has been sent for tests. It will likely be negative given the reported circumstances; so precautionary. However AFL players are vulnerable if any other player in the completion has the virus. I cannot imagine the AFL allowing the season to proceed if players have any exposure.

    Who could guarantee right now that they are not carrying the COVID-19 virus. I think of the Iranian woman who got on a plane to Australia while displaying the symptoms. Can you blame her for trying to get to a country with a functional health system. Then there is the doctor who travelled from the USA with the virus and spread it through an aged care facility in Australia. Australia does not have the tracking system that Taiwan has for example to rapidly back track all possible contacts.

    I know someone who contracts the grocery deliveries for the supermarkets – I expect that business will thrive in the next couple of months.

    60

    • #
      OriginalSteve

      People arent thining straight – lets take a step back and breathe for a bit.

      If its the elderly who are most at risk, then thats where they should be targetting resources. Proper quarantine procedures around nursing homes etc.

      Anyone aged under 70, based on mortality figures Ive seen out of USA, UK, Italy and Oz, seems to be OK, which is the bulk of the population.

      If they advise the elderly not to go to mass gatherings of people, that would be sensible. Banning footy seasons is overkill, IMHO.

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      • #
        Greg Cavanagh

        It’s mostly the old; but not exclusively by any means.

        AGE DEATH
        80+ years old 14.8%
        70-79 years old 8.0%
        60-69 years old 3.6%
        50-59 years old 1.3%
        40-49 years old 0.4%
        30-39 years old 0.2%
        20-29 years old 0.2%
        10-19 years old 0.2%
        0-9 years old no fatalities

        *Death Rate = (number of deaths / number of cases) = probability of dying if infected by the virus (%).

        20

      • #
        David-of-Cooyal-in-Oz

        I’m in the 14.8 group. Am glad I live outside Sydney and do not intend to get into any crowds, especially enclosed ones. And with no access to public transport I drive myself into town. (I think working in my back paddock is reasonable isolation, 5 days a week.) So far I think our shopping is safe!!?? But I am hoping the 1 metre clearance from other people, that I’ve seen mentioned, is useful?
        Cheers
        Dave B

        50

        • #
          OriginalSteve

          I’d also buy a couple of big things of metho and nuke everything that you bring home….

          10

      • #
        Bill In Oz

        Except that the young’uns
        Can carry the bloody virus !
        Ban them from your life !

        10

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    Geoffrey Williams

    Just heard on ABC that test results for Covid 19 virus are taking a week to come back from laboritries. A lot can happen in a week. Our doctors and the medical profession are facing a difficult situation and need to be protected. How? It’s all very well to wash your hands, self isolate and carry on with business as usual. Conflicting advice.
    GeoffW

    40

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    Geoff Sherrington

    Many of you know me as a long time blogger here with occasional essays about poor science in climate research as seen by an experienced, successfully productive scientist in retirement.
    Here is what is new for me coming on to 79 years age.
    Two days ago, starting early hours of Sunday morning, I awoke feeling very unwell. Shortness of breath, mental al disorientation, seven hours of dry retching each hour with no vomit, bloated stomach, no temperature increase, no sniffles or sneezing. Increased pain from existing polymygia, more difficult walking even the few steps for increased urination,like hourly.
    My wife who had eaten similarly showed no adverse effects.
    Called an ambulance about 10 am. Taken to Box Hill public hospital in a high Chinese suburb with many staff from high immigration countries like Africa, China. Acute systems abated from about noon to near-normal feel on awakening next day. I was put in a single room in a medical ward.

    Topic of Corvid-19 has been evaded. No answers when I ask if I have it. No answer to whether I have had blood tested. Only comments that I do not have typical symptoms. Only treatment so far was antibiotics for pneumonia and a daily drink of phosphate fertiliser.
    Investigations show only possible slight pneumonia on left lung. Temperature,weight, blood pressure stayed normal. No cough nor sneeze nor sniffle. Mentals back.

    I plan to go home this afternoon. The event has been trying because of lack of straight talk.
    I have written this to offer some inside experience as it happens and I invite as many questions as Jo wishes for her site. Her commentary on this virus to date has been the straight talk that many others are seeming to avoid. Although a bit scared as it has to be, it has been very helpful for one lying on a bed in a small room hour after hour with little more to do than think.
    Comments welcomed. Geoff S

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      RickWill

      My son is a registrar with one of the large public hospitals in Victoria. He has not been given any specific advice on COVID-19 but is not currently working in an Emergency Department. Emergency departments at smaller regional hospitals are telling those presenting with flue like symptoms to go home. The cases get reported to infectious diseases (VIDS) for follow up. I have no idea how long that takes.

      It appears Australia has been ill-prepared for this virus. Expect a royal commission and the recommendations to collect dust; just like reports on uncontrollable fires.

      I am contemplating writing a paper on COVID-19 and its links to climate change. The paper will suggest that there is a high probability that COVID-19 was much worse due to climate change.

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      • #
        robert rosicka

        You’ll have no problem getting funding if you do Rick ?

        40

      • #
        Geoff Sherrington

        Good luck wit that, Rick.
        I hope you have been able to find hard evidence of a link between the severity of this virus and the weather (it is too transient to be related to multi-decadal climate CHANGE).
        Tip – before you rush to print, try deleting all setences with ” might” “could” “may” and similar conditionals.

        I still have not had my blood tested for covid-19 though plenty was taken for other tests. Time will tell if official procedures are working well or not. Geoff S

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          robert rosicka

          Geoff I think he left the sarc tag off .
          And he doesn’t need hard evidence he can do it by decree and say he’s not showing how he worked it out because we will find something wrong with it !

          31

        • #
          RickWill

          Tip – before you rush to print, try deleting all setences with ” might” “could” “may” and similar conditionals.

          Using such words means you cannot be wrong. Those producing papers that relate catastrophes with Global Warming are only ever making suggestions. They are never wrong because it was just a suggestion.

          40

          • #
            robert rosicka

            But Rick you’ll never get your paper published if you don’t use those words , anything to do with climate change has to have them .

            20

    • #
      David A

      Geoff, allays appreciated your comments. Hope you fully recover, and soon!

      Did you see this post of Jo’s
      http://joannenova.com.au/2020/03/the-story-of-the-25-year-old-british-man-who-had-coronavirus-last-november-in-wuhan/

      20

    • #
      Bill In Oz

      Geoff Build up your body’s potassium levels
      The Chinese in Wuhan are doing that to help COVID patients.

      10

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    • #
      RickWill

      People who rushed out and bought toilet paper have been proven right. It is out of stock in some shops now and Australia led the pack.

      The thing about toilet paper is its almost universal use in the anglosphere; if not globally. I doubt people younger than 40 in most of the western world have ever lived without toilet paper – a genuine necessity greater than food in the eyes of many. The water to flush and the pipe the flush goes into are all taken for granted. Little appreciation that these essential services need energy – ALL THE TIME.

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      • #
        Ian Hill

        On a lighter note I can see toilet paper being offered as prizes in raffles and random draw prizes at fun runs etc. This would be mainly to add some humour to the events.

        When there was a shortage of bananas many years ago the big prize after a half marathon was a bunch of bananas!

        50

        • #
          RickWill

          Probably the one gift that is always useful and is essentially ageless. Although I do like the softer, multi-layer varieties and my wife prefers soft with perfume.

          30

      • #
        David A

        Well Rick, there is a synergy between toilet paper and food, so I hope they remembered to get the food as well, or else the TP will be good for little more then a mommy wrap.

        30

  • #

    People might be interested in this which comes from an Italian source

    https://www.thelocal.it/20200123/flu-outbreak-in-italy-half-a-million-people-struck-down-in-a-week

    A hint of why Italy has been so badly affected might come from the item towards the foot of the article.

    I understand that over 80 percent of those who have died are over 70 and the vast majority of those who have died had existing conditions that made them vulnerable, whether to corona virus r to flu

    If the wider lockdown confines people to their homes it might cause more problems than it solves

    80

    • #
      Bill In Oz

      Tony that dates from the 23rd of January 2020 in Italy !
      Its bloody late & irrelevant
      Get yourself up to date !
      And don’t waste our time please !

      26

    • #
      tonyb

      Bill

      With respect you have missed the point. It was not the data I was interested in but the nature in which the Italians hunker down, which surely must help the spread of corona virus as well as flu and might help-with other factors to explain their spiralling cases

      I think that is highly relevant in as much don’t close all the windows and stew in yours and other germs. Confining Italians to their homes which are badly ventilated might exacerbate the problem, I don’t see how that information is wasting anyone’s time

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  • #
    Raving

    Whether the mortality is .5% or 5%, the decision to act or surrender to the inevitable is the same. Failure to act admits that our healthcare system is useless. Pointless attempting to save anyone from anything.

    I don’t think politicians or physicians could survive the criticism

    30

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    RickWill

    This virus has achieved more reduction in CO2 production from fossil fuel in two months than all the UNCCCs have achieved in 25 years of meetings.

    The actions to slow the spread of the virus provides a glimpse of a fossil free world; mandated reduction in economic activity.

    Given a global slow down for a few months, there should be a measurable impact on fossil fuel use; price signal already apparent. That should reduce the rate of rise of atmospheric CO2 unless of course atmospheric CO2 is caused by natural factors.

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    • #
      Ian Hill

      I reckon that the rate of CO2 rise will not be affected by markedly reduced fossil fuel use, thereby “proving” fossil fuel and the industrial revolution didn’t do it and therefore emission reduction targets are absolutely futile. Paradoxically, we don’t need sudden global cooling right now!

      50

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  • #
    Springdam

    We have 5.3% unemployed in Oz,and a high? percentage of workers are on casual or part timer income. All very well Hunt for you to say, stay home and self isolate, the difficult question then becomes,do I tough it out at work if I feel I’m getting a cold?? or will the landlord feed me and allow me to fall back on the rent. The Govt.needs a backbone now to stop all planes and boats instead of “she’ll be right mate”we can handle this. For G. Sake we’re an island, we could have stayed clean and exported our product to the rest of the world. Oh wait, we don’t have a lot of product to send overseas.Derrr.

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    H.B. Schmidt

    COVID-19 is not the boogeyman it’s being made out to be. Yes, the mortality rate is ~3.3% (higher than typical influenza A or B strains) but the predilection is for older, immunity-compromised individuals.

    They say pneumonia is the old person’s friend because so many old people succumb to it for one reason or another. Given COVID-19’s severity increases with age (and most likely with concomitant chronic diseases) then this is nothing like the Spanish Flu of 1917-18. I don’t want to give old people a death sentence, but the reactions by the media and health services have been nothing short of hysterical overreaction.

    You may disagree, but no one gets in a tizzy about the periodic dengue fever or ebola outbreaks that kill upwards of 90% of those infected. Why COVID-19 is such a hand wringer is beyond me.

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    • #
      Kalm Keith

      In the last three months in Australia there have been three deaths associated with COVID19.

      In the same three months there have been in excess of 290 road deaths here.

      Admittedly the COVID19 story is just beginning and remains a work in progress.

      KK

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      • #
        RickWill

        Would be an interesting exercise to graph these two statistics over the next few months. Without decent controls it is highly probable that Covid-19 victims could exceed the annual road toll on a daily basis. That potential should be motivating actions; not the current statistics.

        50

        • #
          Kalm Keith

          It’s going to be a difficult balance over the next few months.

          I notice Vietnam found 10 new cases.

          They all got off a plane from Britain.

          KK

          40

          • #
            Bill In Oz

            Will Vietnam close the borders to protect their own people.
            They have the ability to do so !

            40

            • #
              Kalm Keith

              China was closed off a long while back.

              I understand from an earlier link here that an Israeli doctor has been involved in the precautions adopted. His 32 years there and medical background weren’t wasted.

              20

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      RickWill

      I think 3.3% of the population over a short period of a few months is something to worry about. In Australia alone, that is almost 1 million people. And there are plenty of young people dying in China.

      You need look no further than the source of the outbreak to understand how seriously the Chinese authorities have taken the virus. WE can only trust that the reported cases is rapid decline in China, demonstrating how effective the controls have been.

      It is already apparent that the Australian government has been too slow to protect our island. We place heavy fines on people bringing food into Australia and spend millions to prevent that. The actions to prevent people bringing this novel virus into Australia have been non-existent.

      I guess if enough older Australians succumb, it will ease the burden on the pension system. It has certainly slowed the drain on the kid’s inheritance; lots of older people cancelling their offshore trips.

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        Chad

        Rick, Its 3.3% of verified cases,…not the population..
        “Ground zero”,…Wuhan,.(pop’ 10+mil). had <100k verified cases before the spread appears to have dramatically reduced

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          RickWill

          But the there was heavy handed control of the situation. It was treated as a REALLY SCARY BOOGEYMAN and controls implemented accordingly.

          If it is permitted to run rampant I expect the social dislocation will be as least as deadly as the virus. It needs to be treated as a boogeyman. Not your friendly virus.

          Without controls there is a reasonable prospect the entire population will be exposed. 1 million deaths may be a good outcome if the food supply gets battered.

          Australia is badly prepared. Today there are queues outside the metropolitan hospital EDs hundreds of metres long.

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          Bill In Oz

          “Verified cases ” ..
          I name thee Chad as a Chinese propaganda troll

          Go play your games elsewhere !

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      David A

      HB, the flu is already present world wide, whereas Cov19 started in two cubic feet of flesh about two months ago.

      The death rate of Cov19 is likely 35 times greater then the flu.

      The RO is considerably higher, meaning go ahead, treat this like the common flu and you will have 70 to 100 times as many dead, and your economy broken in a greater way. (In the US that would mean there would be about 30 million dead)

      There is no developed immunity in the general population.

      Cov19 has already overwhelmed hospitals in at least 3 nations. The only way to minimize this is via the strong actions some nations are doing.

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      • #
        Chad

        D A
        There are frequently new strains of the flue, normally with a unique point source and requiring a unique vaccine.
        The deathe rate is a % of deaths vs infected numbers. The high % number for CV19 is because of the low number of infections,.. not the high number of deaths which is still relatively low !
        100 times as many dead as flue in the USA, would be 3.0 m, ..not 30.0 m !

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        • #
          David A

          Chad, you are correct on the US death count, averages about 30,000 per year.

          And yes, many cases go undetected and are mild.

          The flu mortality rates are based on completed cases from past years, all either dead or cured. With Cov19 we are in the early stages of an expanding growing virus, sometimes exponential. This means an ever larger percentage are in the early stages, where only the most vulnerable die. ( Thus Italy’s very old only stats). Accurate mortality is based on RESOLVED cases.

          Also many deaths from this are not recorded, in China certainly, and in other nations where testing is slow.

          Regarding the low number of infections, relative to the flu, perhaps the strong quarantines and travel restrictions should be given some credit.

          Due to the poor testing by the US CDC we should perhaps multiply the US cases by 500 percent, to say 3,500. Europe, with a similar population, has almost four times that.

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            David A

            Oh, and this is a Coronavirus, somewhat related to the common cold, which infects a very very large percentage of the planet each year

            There is a reason these nations do these massive travel bans, and quarantines.

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    Rolf

    Once we knew this one could spread asymptomatically all that has happened since then was utterly text book predictable.

    This is the difference to all other bad viruses we have experienced so far lately. Ebola, SARS and MERS. This is the difference that makes this pandemic. This is the reason the only way to contain it is quarantine. There is actually no other way to contain it. No free bodies to feed on. Then it will die out. Be it locally or nation wise. The only way. Jo is right 100% on this.

    Why did governments not understand this as soon as this information got out in January ? Are they so stupid or are they calculating on money versus lives ? I would actually like to have that information ! Especially as elderly are suffering way harder. Was this a price they were prepared to take ? or even wanted ?

    Take a close look at Sweden. We have a big demographic ‘problem’. Too many old people and they are just getting older. Lack of resources for health care, lack of funding for pensions. Conspiracy ? Far fetched ? Or are we governed by stupid people ? I assume the same problem exist in many countries.

    I don’t think they are that stupid, so did they do the calculation ? I really want to know !

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    • #
      Chad

      Rolf, if the only way to stop this virus is containment,..ie limit the available host bodies…
      …why then has the Wutan “confinement “ of 10+million people only resulted in less than 100k confirmed infections within that containment area ?
      Only 1 % infected in the main containment zone might suggest Something else must be limiting the virus spread

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      • #
        Slithers

        Chad, when they open those welded shut doors, how many dead will the find inside?
        Will they ever publish those numbers?
        The rest of the world cannot ever believe anything publicly released by the ‘Official’ Chinese media.

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        Rolf

        I for one do not believe any of the numbers the Chinese Communist Party, (CCP), will publish.
        On Jan 24, China published 41 deaths, totally so far. The very same day, a close friend of my wife, working at one of the 32 hospitals at Wuhan, told us they had 40 deaths at her hospitals alone that day. At the same time came information about cremation going on 24/7 at Wuhan. The truth will probably be found in Italy ! Wuhan was probably worse, Italy at least was prepared that something might be on the way. At Wuhan it was hidden from November until January. Maybe even from November 1st. From what we learn in Italy we can do the math and get a good idea what actually took place at Wuhan and guess the real numbers.
        However, it seem if we can have ICU’s available mortality can be low. Probably that’s the real problem, the huge numbers and the spread if nothing is done. Can we build hospitals in one week ? I guess not. Here they will put up tents, already did in Sweden. But where will they get ICU’s and personal ?
        We also have videos where police locked people up in apartments and even blocks by welding the doors.
        1% infected in Wuhan ? Well, I have numbers of 50% running away just before they locked the city up. They also stopped people buying gas for cars from Wuhan in other provinces. Nothing of this is ‘official’, videos have been censored and replaced with praise for the government, CCP.
        No, any number from that place has one purpose only, make the power grip stronger.
        WHO had personal in China, was NOT allowed to go to Wuhan or even the Hubei province. Still they play the Chinese game. Why ? Because Egypt depend on China and the leader maybe even more. I suggest a checking of his personal bank accounts may be in place. (Especially in China).

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          David A

          I have similar distrust in China’s numbers.
          My concern is they took advantage of the virus and simply isolated their prisions and elderly ( more vigouresly then their general population) into group quarantine, and let it run rampant in those populations. We have leaks, rumors, some videos, but nobody allowed in to see.

          “The number of Chinese citizens aged 60 or above reached 241 million by the end of 2017, representing 17.3 percent of the country’s total population. The China National Committee on Aging (CNCA) projected on Monday that the figure is expected to peak at 487 million, or nearly 35 percent, around 2050, Xinhua reports.Feb 27, 2018”

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    Peter Fitzroy

    Given that even though all of Italy (at time of posting) is in lockdown, and yet we haven’t blocked arrivals from there, Its plain, and if you listened to Mr Morrison’s speech this morning, it is clear that all of our attempts to halt the virus or limit its spread will be failures, it is best to prepare.

    By that I mean.
    look to your health. try to improve your fitness (which is good advice anytime)
    step up your personal hygiene – this includes disposing of waste like tissues properly, make sure that you wash your clothes and clean surfaces more often
    stay away from crowds, and try to maintain a 1 metre distance from everyone in public.
    listen to what Jo is saying, but not so much any politician

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      Environment Skeptic

      Agreed! To focus on travel bans is myopic and ignores the bigger picture. I agree the virus/cat is out of the bag. End of story… Our time and resources are best spent on what you suggest and more…

      As for Italy, a cousin over there who originally was from there, then came to Australia in the early 60’s, went back in the 70’s, and after suffering the decades long financial crisis over there is still trying to find a buyer for his house in a super depressed market so he can return to Australia. He says the Italian government is the most corrupt in the world. I would not go by what the Italian government is doing much. Things are quite bad over there economically and then there is all the aforementioned political corruption which the population has had enough of in general as far as i know from what my cousin says…on a recent visit to Australia, he looked me in the eye and said i would not last a week if i had to live there 🙂

      I do not think he was exaggerating. He says the goverment there is worse than the mafia.

      His son is melb at the moment to see what it is like here and does not want to go back. He has been here for the last 4 months.

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      Bill In Oz

      Peter I agree completely !

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      Sceptical Sam

      Spot on Peter.

      However, it would be nice if we could get some N95 masks.

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      • #

        N95 Masks were sold out in Perth 6 weeks ago. I suspect they were being posted to China.

        I bet it’s possible to make something equivalent to an N95. So perhaps someone could look for the DIY version and source materials. ?

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    Dennis

    FYI posted at Michael Smith News today …

    “Paul said…
    As someone who is living just outside of Milan, the ‘panic’ you speak of is inexistent! Actually it is quite orderly and the community spirit is incredible. Everyone is looking out for everyone especially the elderly. The government has been transparent from the get go unlike some others that I have noted. The message is that if we don’t follow what doctors and scientists are suggesting this event will go on, the idea of a vaccine is 12-18 mths away so the only way to control the out break is to limit your movements.
    It is not simple but with some self sacrifice we will get through it. Nobody here is concerned about the stock market nobody is concerned about their employment because something greater is at risk, no need to say what it is.
    I’ve read a lot of snide remarks regarding the origins and how this has all come about, honestly for those right in the middle that is a discussion that’ll be had once this has been cleared.
    You’ll be lucky if this doesn’t affect your life in some way.”

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    Bulldust

    Italy is under full lock down now:
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/mar/09/coronavirus-live-updates-outbreak-italy-lockdown-quarantine-uk-usa-america-australia-recession-fears-update-latest-news

    Qantas is re-routing Sydney-London passengers through Perth instead of Singapore:
    https://www.qantasnewsroom.com.au/media-releases/qantas-group-update-on-coronavirus-response/

    Meanwhile other airlines are offering credit towards future flights for people wanting to postpone travel, but no word from Qantas as yet. We can get credit for our cruise in April (thanks NCL, and all the other cruise lines), but my wife was due to fly out next week on non refundable tickets on Qantas…

    At this stage the options are go on a cruise anyway… not a good idea.
    Travel to the US anyway and hang with relatives or road trip around a bit and take credit for the cruise.
    Don’t travel at all and take a several thousand dollar hit unless Qantas starts putting public health ahead of profits.

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      Bulldust

      BTW are Perth people happy we have Sydney-siders being re-routed through here? Sydney has the most cases in Australia, and I imagine Perth Airport and hotels (for those breaking up the trip) might become another vector. Thanks Qantas.

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      Sceptical Sam

      Would you sell your life and that of your wife for a few thousand dollars?

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    Bill In Oz

    Meanwhile this is worth thinking about :

    The virus causes the body to lose potassium and become hypokalemic.. In this Chinese study from Wuhan all 175 patients stricken with COVID 19 were potassium depleted….And responded well to potassium supplementation. in other words the virus disrputs the body’s ability to retain potassium and havoc results.

    As it happens i already take potassium supplements each day.

    https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/covid-19-research-updates-chinese-study-reveals-that-hypokalemia-present-in-almost-all-covid-19-patients

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      Lance

      @BillinOz: If true (potassium deficiency and Covid19) then the ordinary “No Salt” would be useful.

      “No Salt” salt is Potassium Chloride instead of Sodium Chloride.

      My understanding is that Potassium regulates the cellular internal pressure and Sodium regulates the external cell pressure, and the kidneys excrete excess potassium.

      I take potassium chloride to minimize/eliminate muscle cramps from low potassium levels. Also because my wife admonishes me about it. Low K can cause heart attacks.

      In any case, thanks for the interesting information. Cheers.

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      RickWill

      Be careful – you will prompt a run on potassium! make sure you stock up before they run out.

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        farmerbraun

        The recommended neutraliser for high-dose ascorbic acid regimes is potassium bicarbonate.
        But be warned ; the production of potassium ascorbate causes global conflagration – producing gas.

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    robert rosicka

    Have just seen reports that Indigenous land councils are now refusing permits to travel in their controlled areas up north .

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    Roger Knights

    Bill Gates Foundation will begin offering home-testing coronavirus testing kits in Seattle area that will allow people to send nose-swab samples back for analysis

    Results w/in 1-2 days will be shared w/local health officials who notify those test positive
    https://www.
    seattletimes.com/seattle-news/h
    ealth/gates-funded-program-will-soon-offer-home-testing-kits-for-new-coronavirus/ 

    https://t.co/vD025EMRIV

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    Zane

    I’m surprised the alarmists haven’t linked coronavirus to climate change yet… :).

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    george1st:)

    The ONLY solution atm is containment and isolation .

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    Matty

    Endless comparisons with flu, but we don’t cancel or close anything because of flu. It is allowed to penetrate every home and workplace repeatedly every year. When COVID-19 completes it’s first lap would be a better time to form conclusions?

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      el gordo

      Unless the authorities think the virus might have been manufactured at the institute up the road and they are taking no chances.

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    STJOHNOFGRAFTON

    Here’s a good video, full of scientific facts and strategies, for maximising your chances in dealing with the COVID-19 juggernaught:

    https://videos.whatfinger.com/2020/03/09/coronavirus-new-data-introduces-some-hope-updated-info-and-stats/

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  • #
    LightningCamel

    I have commented in several previous threads on the impracticability and ineffectiveness of stopping airline flights, viscerally it is attractive but not so good on further thought. Stephen Wilde has covered many of the same points earlier in this thread, more eloquently than I have, and I’m not going to say it all again.

    I know one should not disagree with one’s host but Jo, I have to take exception to your observation (in reply to Steve):

    No. You are not the only one thinking this way. I see now how many people see it like that. It’s a false choice.

    Our options were:

    1. Quarantine and save people AND The economy (with some inevitable major cost).

    OR
    2. NO Quarantine and kill hundreds of thousands of people AND The trash the Economy.

    You are entitled to think it is a false choice but I believe you have set up a false dichotomy. It is clearly too late to set up a universal ban on flights which might have contained the spread to China and that is a very big might but would have been politically and socially impossible. Given that and because the virus is continuing to spread and is infective in the absence of symptoms we cannot rely on infection data to target bans but would have to (or would have had to) ban all flights. Banning some travel would be useless. The cost of doing this would be high and the damage to economy directly would be high. Unfortunately, if the disaster predictions come true, then the economy of the rest of the world will be trashed and, because of our international dependence ours will be trashed along with it. So we may have less disease but almost certainly some but we will have severe economic damage along with the social harm and deaths caused by that. So It seems to me that that part of your choice is invalid.

    You propose authoritarian measures to enforce a quarantine. Do we really want to do that because of fear of what the future may bring? We can barely summon the will to keep out people who just don’t like where they live, how will we go with the argument that “you can’t send us back because we will die of this horrible disease”? I can see the lawyers drafting out their bills to legal aid already.

    The hundreds of thousands of deaths argument is not looking very convincing either, depending of course on what population you are referring to. Wuhan flu may not be Influenza but it is killing the same demographic (unfortunately mine) so we cannot say that the deaths from Wuhan flu are all, or even mostly, additional deaths. The death rate for Wuhan flu is largely unknown, the 3.4% is guesswork but the numbers we have at present are mostly from a selected population, those in hospital where infection has been confirmed. In a comment on another thread I linked to a Dutch study from 2015 where death rates from a similar population for seasonal flu were 9% so maybe it is not so much deadlier. No data to tell but death rates keep dropping. Almost every country has high initial death rates which decline. I have yet to see data on people who are infected but have no need to go near a hospital.

    There has to be some serious question about how infective the pathogen is. SARS was deadly but it was not highly transmissable. Its early history in China was similar to Wuhan flu, deaths not reported, information not shared etc but even so, it did not really get going and, although it made it to other countries, it was relatively easily contained once understood. No travel bans or wide quarantine were necessary. The virus still exists in bats today. MERS is similar, it still exists in camels, and is still circulating in the human population, there were 212 cases in 2019 of which 24% died, but is not considered a major issue.

    We see that the infection rates in China have dropped off as have those in S. Korea. The decline there has been consistent for a few days now so I’m beginning to believe it is real. Why? For those not familiar with Korea, take a look at Daegu on Google Earth, it is rank after rank of 20 story apartment blocks like a forest of cruise liners stood on end. Although Koreans have talked about quarantine, effective isolation in such structures is impossible so either there are towers full of dead people to be discovered or transmissability is not extremely high. There are a couple of other data points. The infection rate has been much slower to peak in Italy than in Korea and, whilst Koreans are not publicly demonstrative, Italians tend to the touchy feely end of the spectrum. Second, the initial high rates of infection in Korea were within a religious sect which had a much more demonstrative tradition, simple welcoming hugs and the like.

    In countries where the infection has been going the longest the rates of infection are dropping and the proportion of the population infected is in the hundredths of one percent range. It may be that community awareness and some simple behaviour modification may be all that is needed to bring this thing to a halt. I find no convincing evidence that Wuhan flu is going infect the majority of the population in the near future or cause 100,000 deaths in Australia.

    You are of course free to disagree with me but we have to get past the idea of simple dichotomies an d the implication that people cannot understand “complex” issues like exponential growth.

    Do I think we should all sit here and pretend nothing is happening? No, I don’t. Stock up on some basics so you can stay away from crowded areas for a time if you are unlucky enough to be in a hot spot. Say away from big crowds, people tend to be a bit illogical about their code of footy, so maybe government or the sporting codes should make the games closed events, much of their revenue does not depend on punters in the gate so not a huge hit. Stay away from the GP Stay out of airports, them and aircraft are the biggest virus soups known to man. Is that trip to see Aunty Mabel worth your illness, or Auntie’s illness? Keep up with the situation, make sensible decisions on public transport and working from home. Get informed, know the risks and make your own decisions. Be wary of any government that want’s to use this to take more control. You will never get back the freedom that you lose.

    Wuhan Flu is not going to go away, we will feel an impact and the government should be much more active in trying to create an informed country instead of playing big brother because we are not considered mature enough to react rationally. That way creates the toilet paper saga.

    Finally, a little personal aside. That turned into a bit of an epic worthy, in length at least, of ROM. For anyone interested, ROM is still looking down on the grass and making slow progress towards partial recovery. The best bit is that his outlook on life is brightening.

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    • #

      So far the only countries where the disease has peaked are the ones with strict aggressive authoritarian quarantine.

      Every infected plane passenger may trigger an outbreak separate too and on top of the current transmission that may kill Australians (one man on the Diamond Princess may have led to deaths of 7 –with 32 still hospitalized). As the disease grows how many deaths per planeload is OK?

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      • #

        But please do keep questioning.

        We’d love to think that behavioural changes can help but those apparently needed are just like the authoritarian ones — stay home, don’t catch public transport, don’t have weddings, don’t go to sports.

        All I see are pollies saying ” it’s inevitable” “we will get sick” and “don’t panic” and “don’t change your behaviour”.

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        • #
          LightningCamel

          Agree entirely that pollies need to do more in terms of education and setting up testing facilities to minimise the health system being compromised.

          On the authoritarian impositions, got no more to say on travel bans. On quarantine, the other biggie, in Korea it would be of limited use in containing local spread because of living conditions so the changes in infection rates may be more due to the simple behavioural changes that an educated population can implement for itself at minimal disruption..

          I might pop up again in a couple of days as the numbers unfold, there are some fragile indications that Iran may be beginning to slow down.

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          Peter C

          All I see are pollies saying ” it’s inevitable” “we will get sick” and “don’t panic” and “don’t change your behaviour”.

          It is easy for them to say. But no one believed them before and even less now. I have not seen any panic myself. Even the precaution of buying some toilet paper (if you can) seems quite logical.

          As for behaviour change we are already in partial lockdown. Stay at home. Watch TV for entertainment. No flying anticipated.

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        Bill In Oz

        YES Jo
        Perfect illustration in todays news !
        There are now 2 people more sick in Victoria with Corona 19 virus
        One is a woman who flew on the same plane as Chris Higgins
        (NB No ‘Doctor’ from me for him ! He is too careless ! )
        The second is the husband of that woman who was on the plane.
        he is a teacher at Baptist Carey Grammar in Melbourne.
        That school is now closed for the week
        While everyone at the school is being checked for the virus !

        Now if only that quack had decided to get tested in Denver ?
        Or maybe worn a mask on the plane trips to protect other ?
        Or Maybe got a test when he got home and not worked ?

        Instead he behaved like so many arrogant quacks
        Who think they are better than ordinary mortals !

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        • #
          tonyb

          Bill

          I read about Higgins here. It seems extraordinary that he thought it was ok to carry on as normal. Arrogance? Lack of awareness? Of all people he must have known the risks he was posing to others.

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          • #

            I’m sympathetic to Higgins. He probably watched the ABC, listened to the AMA, obeyed all the rules. He had no idea there was such large community spread in California. He didn’t know the US had done almost no testing. Thought it was a “safe” destination to fly from because the Dept of Foreign Affairs probably said so.

            He didn’t think California was high risk. He didn’t have to do a Covid test. Didn’t think he had it as it had resolved.

            It’s our journalists and institutions that are to blame moreso — they moved far too slowly. Higgins didn’t even need to get testing, and if he hadn’t then he and 70 (and how many more) people wouldn’t even know they needed to quarantine.

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        Chad

        Jo, consider Wuhan’s 10+ million residents as a “ country” in quarantine .
        Why have there not been more than the 100k reported cases within that containment area if the virus is so easily transmitted ?
        Sure the numbers are undoubtedly inaccurate, but if you accept That the fatality rate is 3-4% , ..it would be hard for even the chinese to hide 300-400,000 deaths from a total infection of the population of Wuhan
        No, the probability is that the virus could infect 1-2% of the population as a worst case , with fatilities possibly 3-4% of the infected…..
        So , 2000 fatalities in Australia even if there was no restricton on the virus spreading ?

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        • #

          Chad, takes 3 months to really wind up to millions of infections. That’s where it was going if they didn’t trash their whole economy.

          Fatality rate = 1% on Diamond princess where every single passenger was tested. No asymptomatic cases went undetected there.

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          David A

          Chad, 3 to 4 million of Wuhan population left the city.

          As China has allowed exactly zero inspection of Wuhan group quarantines, hospitals, locked in Highrise apartments, make shift no wall convention center hospitals, prisions, elderly care facilities, etc… and they sent the military in, you have no idea how many died. We only have multiple sourced leaks, videos and interviews. China list any right to be believed.

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            Chad

            D. A /Jo
            Wuhan has had 3+months of being a human “petri dish”, and even with the strictly enforced military confinement, they cannot prevent a “virrulent “ virus from doing its worst in terms of spreading within numerous “seeded” cells within the city boundries.
            They had 80k reported cases several weeks ago, ..if it were a normal fast spreading virus, we should expect that figure to have multiplied many many times by now….easily into the millions.
            I do not believe any country could keep that scale of public infection secret from the rest of the world in the current situation.

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            • #
              Bill In Oz

              You have ignored the evidence coming from the people of Wuhan.
              On Facebook, Linked in etc there is a mountain of such evidence.
              Or even on the South China Morning Post website in HongKong
              ( But don’t bother with WeiChat. There it has been suppressed. )
              So you believe the Chinese government !
              Pure propaganda & trolling for the CCP!

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              David A

              Chad, most of what you wrote us contradictory and incorrect.
              All of China has 80,700 plus cases. Not Wuhan.

              Your first paragraph says how their efforts even with Military confinement failed.

              ” and even with the strictly enforced military confinement, they cannot prevent a “virrulent “ virus from doing its worst in terms of spreading within numerous “seeded” cells within the city boundries.

              Your next paragraphs, completely ignoring all the quarantines with Military confinement enforcement, articulated the view that millions should be infected by now.

              The simple truth is that China’s closing their doors to the world destroys all their creditability. Also, to ignore all the leaked reports, videos and testimony is presumptive at best.

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      Annie

      I’ve been wondering how ROM is going. I enjoyed his comments.

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    Judge Dredd

    Who would have thought that the thing to unite the left and the right is Corona-tardation.
    Guys, this will be another nothing burger, although I can understand why people are falling for it as it triggers some deep-seated fears and also plays nicely to right-thinking brains

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    toorightmate

    Our once “Lucky Country” is now “THE Dumb Country”.
    Want some proof – have a look at toilet paper, rice and hand cleanser shelves in Australian supermarkets.

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    • #
      Sceptical Sam

      Maybe while you’re at it, you’d check out the numbers waiting outside the CV testing stations to get tested.

      Find one close to you. Go and have a look.

      It’s a real eye-opener.

      One of my friends had to have a sample taken – he’s in voluntary isolation. He waited out-side with all the others and was confronted by a poor mother with a child who was desperate for a “number two”. No toilets.

      Hmmm…. You got to love your mum.

      Into a garden-bed she goes with little Johnnie in tow. Embarrassed. Wipes his bum with a tissue. Kicks a bit of the garden-bed over the deposit to keep the bloody flies off.

      Problem solved.

      Ask the C M bloody O about that one. Do you reckon they give a sh**?

      This is not getting any better.

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    LightningCamel

    Some numbers from American Thinker Some are a bit light hearted and all US but of interest.

    Examples. Over a decade, of people hospitalised for flu, around 8% die (US CDC). Current estimates for Wuhan Flu death rates are 0.1% to 1%. (Adm. Giroir US HHS Asst Sec.). This last is via twitter, will look for a better source.

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    • #
      LightningCamel

      Giroir also on their tube published March 6th.

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    • #
      David A

      Deeply wrong. 10 years of flu stats show about one death per thousand infected.

      Official Cov19 cases show about 30 times that percentage, and only half the cases resolved.
      Also many die who are never tested, yet it is true, far more get well and are never tested.
      The true death rate, we don’t know.

      You must think China, South Korea, Italy and others are idiots to press such dramatic quarantines and travel bans, for such a minor less then the flu virus. Perhaps their overwhelmed hospitals in the bare beginnings of exponential growth precipitated their actions.

      When these actions succeed in dramatically slowing the infection rates, some thoughtless people then say, see, this is less threatening then a common flu. Sad…

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    el gordo

    Watch this space.

    ‘Eleven flights have left Italy bound for Australia on Tuesday, despite the European country being placed into total lockdown to halt the spread of coronavirus.’

    Daily Mail

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      Bill In Oz

      But according to the SCMP
      Hong Kong is putting all entrants from Italy for 14 days !

      But we here in Oz dare not do it ?
      Why ? Would the Italians get upset with us for preventing this plague coming here from Italy !

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    I’m not here much these days as I have no interest in either reading or giving opinions on recent events. Not much elaboration needed, since most here would be aware of my opinions of ALL corporate media and most alternative media as well as on what I call the pervasive state. The burning truck load of loo paper was as much mockery as I could stand, especially after Event 201 last October made it clear what the globsters had in mind. They’ve certainly moved the game up from whale tusk fencing on London Bridge, silicon dummies in Christchurch and burning cathedrals!

    I do want to point to something about altering the past, a theme commonly discussed here in relation to the climate beat-up. The OffGuardian is an occasionally useful news site which at times practices what might be called journalism (as incredible as that may seem in 2020.) Their pages don’t render very quickly with my browser (Vivaldi on Linux) and can take two hits before they show at all. But I think this is a very worthwhile read, whether you think like I do about the present “emergency” or not (and I know most do not).

    https://off-guardian.org/2020/03/09/wikipedia-slashes-spanish-flu-death-rate/

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      OriginalSteve

      I read about the Event 201 – one of the outcomes was no US November 2020 election.

      Trump has joked in the past repeatedly about being President for life, now I’m starting to wonder.

      Coincidence?

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      joseph

      I see the author is going to write about the Covid-19 tests in an upcoming article.

      This link is to a transcript of an audio I listened to on that subject by David Crowe. The first couple of pages present you with much to ponder regarding the tests and the whole approach to determining whether the coronavirus is responsible for all of the deaths attributed to it.
      http://theinfectiousmyth.com/book/CoronavirusPanic.pdf
      And here’s the audio.
      https://infectiousmyth.podbean.com/e/the-infectious-myth-david-tackles-the-coronavirus-panic/

      This should probably go into moderation and give Jo a chance to assess the content.

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      joseph

      This should probably go into moderation and give Jo the opportunity to assess the content.

      I see the author is going to write about the Covid-19 tests in an upcoming article.

      This link is to a transcript of an audio I listened to on that subject by David Crowe. The first couple of pages present you with much to ponder regarding the tests and the whole approach to determining whether the coronavirus is responsible for all of the deaths attributed to it.
      http://theinfectiousmyth.com/book/CoronavirusPanic.pdf
      And here’s the audio.
      https://infectiousmyth.podbean.com/e/the-infectious-myth-david-tackles-the-coronavirus-panic/

      Duplicate comment – J

      [Joseph – I haven’t listened to it. I don’t know “David Crowe” and am not sure why you are concerned (my ignorance, presumably). Can you explain why this should be moderated? – Jo]

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        joseph

        Didn’t think I’d posted it twice! And it didn’t go into moderation . . . . .
        probably no one will spend much time with it as it looks like we’ve moved on to Tuesday unthreaded . . . .

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        joseph

        Jo – I’ve had other material moderated, and this is content that is quite opposed to what you express as being your understanding of the situation, and also that of most of the people who post here. I guess I was thinking it might be better that you had a chance to have a look/listen/consideration before it was put before everyone else. David’s been around for quite a few years and I have found him to be insightful. In this instance he’s saying there is no real proof Covid-19 is responsible for the deaths attributed to it and he goes into quite some detail as to why that is so. You’ll find somewhat of an outline of his argument laid out in the first few paragraphs. I think it’s worthy of attention, but I’m open to the idea that you may not share my opinion. 🙂 Cheers

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    The pervasive STATE, it’s, well, PERVASIVE.
    H/t Orwell 1984.

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    WXcycles

    Global Total % Who Died = 3.59 % … (this number was about 2.0 % at the beginning of the second week of Feb)

    Italy Deaths = 6.22 % … (Intensive-care capacity failing in Italy already? Hence a nationwide quarantine.)
    Italy Critical = 8.64 %

    S Korea Deaths = 0.77 %
    S Korea Critical = 0.72 % … (nonsense in comparison to all other countries – not credible!)

    Iran has zero critical cases yet a 3.62% death rate. Yeah, could not be bothers to report them. Helpful!

    Mortality percent number seems to be steadily rising everywhere, our only hope to prevent millions dying is to greatly reduce the spread to a lower percent of the population over a much longer time interval. Maintaining jet flights and free-passage across borders is the opposite of doing that. Israel just made the right move, to make everyone crossing a border serve a mandatory 14-day quarantine period. This is obviously the rational solution for every country to implement, right now.

    It’s Wednesday morning and 118 countries now have cases of COVID-19. On Saturday morning it was 97 countries.

    Apparently the entire planet has to get cases of a virus with a mortality rate of at least 3.6%, before a single sh|tty airline is sacrificed instead of ~20 million humans.

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      Matty

      I’m told by a Hong Kong based journalist(brother) that the Italian data has a heap of Chinese expats in it from Wenzhou who were travelling back and forward while there was chaos in Wuhan. Substantial expat Chinese population at centre of Italian outbreak but racist to say so. That being so the two data sets should have a bit in common at least? But the recovered rates between the two are starkly different. China owns nearly all of the recovered, and most days the last week no one died outside of Hubei province – apparently. Various DR’s in mainland China however believe the bug is everywhere.

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