Are you losing sleep because of the Carbon Tax? (Click to see a large version. Thanks to MaxL)
It used to be that being Green was assumed to be the done thing in any advert promoting something, especially something that aimed at the professional set (like a herbal sleeping tablet). So I was surprised to see an advert, on the front page of The Australian a few days ago (August 3rd) which unashamedly played to those-who-don’t-welcome-The-Carbon-Tax.
At least one herbal supplement supplier thinks the tax is the hot topic stressor of the moment, keeping business people awake at night.
I wanted to keep this turning point for posterity, for the poor PhD student in 2035 analyzing how the Great Global Warming meme went from Nobel prize winning grandeur in 2007 to well-known-scam status five years later. This is a point along the way. As far as I know, it’s a first in the Australian print media.
There's the Ad, front page, full width at the bottom.
Gillard and co would have to feel a tad queasy when faced with an ad that implied that the top target for a common fear was their not-yet-born-tax. Add this to the PhD student who might be studying the great fall of The Australian Economy and is trying to find supporting evidence for his or her theory that The-Tax-that-makes-no-sense (politically, economically, environmentally or scientifically) was a big part of the reason consumers didn’t spend, weren’t confident, and business ground to a stand-still.
“Carbon Tax keep you up at night?
No matter what’s on your mind, it’s important to get a good nights sleep.
Don’t take the Carbon Tax to bed…”
And if you feel like supporting them: Insomin-X
The Sunday Age wants you to write the agenda
Perhaps the Sunday Age has noticed the quicksand under their assumptions and the opinion polls. Many people have also been pointing me at The Sunday Age’s strange attempt to either appear to be less biased (in the face of such a skeptical community) or to actually (maybe) appeal to readers before they bail on their subscriptions.
Is it a mark of just how detached editors have got that they feel they need to ask the public to write the agenda, or is this just a marketing tactic?
In the launch:
The Sunday Age commits to reporting on the 10 most popular questions and publishing regular updates on how we are going. So if you’ve ever been critical of the media’s coverage of climate change, here’s your chance. We hope you’ll get involved.
From the Our-say site:
Worried about climate change? Furious about the carbon tax? Confused about the science? Walkley-award winning journalist Michael Bachelard will lead The Sunday Age team investigating the 10 most popular questions on OurSay which will be featured and updated on The Age’s Climate Agenda website.
Stephen Harper suggests this:
The claim “the science is settled” is plainly false due to the many problems with the AGW hypothesis (eg. global temperatures have not risen since 1998 despite rising CO2 levels; alarmism is based on flawed models that do not reflect empirical measurements – positive feedback mechanism with water vapour absent/signature hot-spot in troposphere at equator is absent). Why is there no investigative journalism done to examine these flaws? – Stephen Harper,
*I couldn’t get a better copy of this advert, and made some “restoration” edits in the photo-editor to make the Ad slightly more readable. (Has any one got a better copy of Weds Aug 3, 2011?)
UPDATE: Thanks to MaxL, you can now see the ad in full if you click on the top image. Ta Max!
Isn’t it interesting that a few hundred (aka thousands) or so climate “scientists” couldn’t make their scam stick even with ~$100 billion to spend over 20 years and with the politicians and MSM almost ubiquitously in their camp. Yet, a similar few hundred (aka tens of thousands) or so climate skeptics working in their spare time mostly for free and communicating over their internet connections, could cause the climate “scientists'” work to come unglued in less than a decade.
Clearly, it was the anticipation of their scam being found out that was the major reason behind their panic. They had to “do something” quickly about AGW before they were found out. It had nothing to do with the science, global warming, climate change, nor saving the earth for future generations.
It couldn’t have happened to a more deserving bunch of intellectual thugs. Justice would be for them to be put into shackles and required to make little rocks out of big rocks, using small hammers, for the REST of their lives. I don’t expect justice. I just want them to be cut off from their source of funds and made to get a real job and EARN a living for a change.
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Jo
It’s not just the advertisers tossing AGW out with the bathwater. Ed Hoskins over at WUWT shows that Australia, EU and NZ have isolated themselvesfrom the rest of the world
This comment sums it all up for me:
You’d have to say Gillard is tossing us out with the bathwater!
PHD students are already analyzing how the Great Global Warming meme went from Nobel prize winning grandeur in 2007 to well-known-scam status five years later. Stop the Carbon Tax Rally organisers here in Brisbane had a very strong economics focus! Out of twelve or more only three of us wanted to focus on the science!
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Well said Lionell @1, entirely agree.
Let us also spare a thought for the unsung hero, the whistle-blower at UEA (who no doubt will prefer to remain anonymous), whose timely action took the wind right out of the ‘Copenhagen’ sails!
I have long suspected that the last UK government, at least, were looking forward to a mighty new tax stream to conceal the enormous black hole in the economy that their profligate excesses had generated.
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If there was any doubt in people’s minds that the big one is hitting as we read, Wall Street tumbled another 600 points over night:
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/markets/wall-street-shares-plunge-as-dow-sinks-below-11000/story-e6frg91o-1226111345457
And people are running to gold as per usual:
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/markets/gold-price-shines-at-record-us1720/story-e6frg91x-1226111353061
However, and as I warned colleagues in recent days, I don’t think the Aussie dollar is copping quite the hammering it normally does. We have shed 8 cents against the USD, but I have a feeling we won’t be down to US60-70 cents as in recessions of yesteryear. Remember that confidence in the USD has been shaken. So perhaps we will land in the 80-90 cent region.
What does this mean, you ask? Well, traditionally as recessions hit and economies slow, the price of commodities (mostly priced in USD) also drops. However, because the Aussie dollar plummets at the same time the revenues received for our commodity exports in Aussie dollars does not drop as much as the USD commodity prices. I think this time the Aussie dollar will be more robust, meaning that the local miners will feel most of the brunt of the coming commodity price plunge.
Short version: This time it will be a lot worse for Australia than the GFC. However, Aussie-based gold miners may do OK while the rest of the economy crumbles around them.
All the usual disclaimers about forward looking speculative advice. I don’t dabble in stocks … though there will be some bargains after the dust settles.
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This is classic … the Fed Treasurer thinks the opposition is irresponsible for telling people the truth, i.e. that the World’s economies are about to be flushed down the S-bend, ours included:
http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/business/a/-/national/9994242/swan-takes-swipe-at-reckless-opposition/
Give a prize to that photographer… where have I seen that gesture before? 😀
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Outta lube monday should be the name for it.
It might be time for australia to have a treasurer who can count.
Of course, this has happenned before apparently.
This is not the time for amateur ideologists to be in charge.
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Meanwhile the Rainbow Coalition is deader than dead in the water… dead and decomposing, I guess:
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/pm-stalls-in-poll-doldrums-as-voters-stay-cool/story-fn59niix-1226111309260
Newspoll has not budged for Labor, despite all the glorious policy driven through in the last couple weeks… funny that.
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“Give a prize to that photographer… where have I seen that gesture before?”
Goebbels has for some time been my response on seeing that little twerp on TV trying to make bad news appear outstandingly good. That salute is just a confirmation.
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Lionel, @ #1
I wouldn’t describe it as a scam – my impression is that they actually believe it, and that’s based on feed back from my job as an editor, and from interaction with government scientists, etc. The sincerity is palpable.
Rather I think it’s a logical outcome of the progressive takeover of the education system, and society’s institutions.
The hall mark of the progressive mind set is consensus establishing “facts”, some of which happen to be “scientific”, especially so in those disciplines in which in situ experiments aren’t possible.
It’s unravelling not because of any sceptical conversion, but because the fundamentals were flawed from the start. This is not to denigrate the work done by we sceptics in any way, but that the real agenda is dealing with stupid policies put in place by the unintelligent progressives as James Delingpole (after Charles Krauthammer) has pointed out.
Our battle is with sincere, well-meaning, stupids.
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I’m not sure us skeptics were really than influential in the implosion of belief in Global Warming.
http://thepointman.wordpress.com/2011/08/04/i%e2%80%99m-not-a-scientist-but-%e2%80%a6/
Pointman
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Perhaps 2012 is the end of the “carbon charade” world?
One can only hope and do everything possible to make it so.
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@5 Very true bulldust
The goose would not survive in the real world , if I ran my business the way this goose ran our economy , I would not have a business . Ask little Wayne what his US counterparts have advised him and he would sew his own mouth shut rather than tell you …..this is a terrible legacy being foisted upon us . People are falling out of trees all over the world to make it known , yet the jackboot brigade keep on marching . The only difference is they have shot em selves in the feet so many times they are now limping along maintaining that self righteous we know best attitude, they are political deadmen walking,they just will not admit it !!
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Pointman; interesting article; I would add that the commonsense of the average person as a dominant obstacle to AGW agitprop is one reason why the AGW proponents are so strong on the idea of suspension of democratic principles to “combat” AGW. Voting and democracy are really the only way the average guy can express his commonsense and it makes strategic sense to take that opposition away.
Having said that the msm is the primary reason why AGW has lasted, strongly followed by corporate stupidity and cowardice in not dealing with AGW in a transparent way; instead corporate citizens have been seen by the average guy as either getting into bed with the government on this issue a la Riddout, or spending obscene amounts of money in ridiculous ideas such as carbon capture to have their cake and eat it too.
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Louis # 9:
In a paraphrase of occams razor, I think that given the choice between malevolence and stupidity, stupidity is the most likely.
However, I think in the AGW case we have a combination, where stupidity led many down the wrong path. What they did when they realized they were wrong is malevolent.
They distorted facts, fiddled data and ostracized those who presented the facts, to maintain the financial advantage.
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Bulldust @ #5
I’ve already copped flak this morning from shareholder(s) calling me early – what with the DOW down 630 overnight – so she’s going to be interesting. (More than haircuts being taken). Dutch blog I read is pessimistic re the EU as well – though the Germans and French have caved in again, delaying the obvious by a few months.
Also listened to Curtin FM this morning commuting to work (wonder how long this will last – exploration is always the first chop in the mining game) and the Greens book edited by McIntyre – interview with PJN – Green mean well but can’t get their monds around the unintended consequences – well, that’s called stupidity.
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Pointman; while I take your point that alot of the blogosphere is just preaching to the choir, it does provide a good source of information and encourages those few of us who use it to take the discussion into the real world. The CAGW train seemed at one point to have inexorable inertia, but even a small effort can deflect a large blundering mass from its original path.
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Incoherent @ #14
I’m not sure, the AGW was politically driven from the start, and then took a life on its own – and when it started to unravel, human foibles took over – apart from a basic misunderstanding, if they ever had it, of the scientific method. The AGW crowd, because of this misunderstanding, believed they were doing the right thing, and when the data started to go against them, assumed that it was the data collection that was flawed – Trenberth’s travesty quote. Given the billions of $ invested in AGW studies by the political class, patching up the Titanic before it sunk consumed everyone. Malevolent? No, just stupid.
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Jo, I think an even more telling sign of the changing winds was rock band Cold Chisel’s announcement that their pending revival tour will be “anything but carbon neutral”. Some of the media contingent didn’t know whether to approve or disapprove so they just got by with a nervous giggle. But the reality is that by the time an outfit with a mortgage on “cool” dumps on climate bull$#it we can be pretty sure that “the last planeload of climate spivs out of Sydney is almost gone”.
In fact, I will bestow a “Hero of the Climate Resistance” award on the contributor who can come up with the best rewrite of “Khe Sahn” on a sceptic theme.
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Louis @17
I think ‘stupid’ is the wrong word, if you’re defining it in narrow IQ terms. I mean, these people can get PhDs, construct computer models, make presentations, argue their case logically, and so on. (Spend some time with the creepy crew over at Lambert’s blog and you’ll see what I mean.)
Their problem is on the emotional side; they have an overriding emotional need to be heroes, at the centre of a noble drama, slaying the evil capitalist dragon and leading us to a green equality-filled world filled with the strains of ‘Kumbaya’. It’s a problem of EQ rather than IQ.
This overwhelms their rational facilities to the extent that they believe something is true simply because they want it to be true, and will defy at all costs reality’s attempt to change their minds.
So I wouldn’t characterise it as ‘stupidity’; more of an emotional immaturity and narcissism which has been nurtured by the progressive academic sector, and leads them to inhabit a world which is somewhat at odds with reality.
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The CAGW train maybe headed for a de-railment but the CSIRO refuses to take its head out of the bag to see what’s comming. They still spruik the Goverment’s line.
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Pete # 20
Two things to consider: firstly never underestimate a bureaucrat’s ability to shift with the reigning political opinion of the day; secondly the longer those who are perceived by the public to represent science persist, the more incalculable the damage to reputation of of scientists.
They will still spruik the Goverment’s line when the government changes (very soon).
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LH in 17,
You hit the nail right, fair, square on the head……well done.
BD in 4,
Why would the Oz dollat fall back below 1$US? Not disagreeing i just thought the opposite?
To the topic at hand, just so you all get an understanding of the mind set here in Adelaide i will start with a joke. How many South Australians does it take to change a light bulb?……………None as SA’s dont like change.
With the above in mind let me tell you about a story in the Moronville Messenger (AKA The Adelaide Advertiser) on AUGUST 2, we get a story from the BOM saying that this is the warmest start to August on record which it might have been but rather than leave it there the BOM went into the usual sermon of how this is another “Sign” of AGW. THe story went on to say that the winters are drier which is another “sign” but as usual the BOM have no idea and it has rained steadily here in Adelaide since then.
I am glad to see the Oz leading the way as it will give backward arse country F*&^%Ks here in Adelaide a path to follow.
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Hmmmm. You guys can cheer all you like. The only thing that really counts is whether the world keeps warming, or whether (as predicted by many of your ilk) we plunge into an ice age.
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[…] A sign of the times: Advertisers toss global warming Are you losing sleep because of the Carbon Tax? […]
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Well, I’ll tell you AGW had me scared for a least a year of furious research of the science after the collapse of the Copenhagen conference. As it turns out, it was a mistake to assume, as the civilisation they built did, that scientists were irreproachable professionals and passionate pursuers of truth. It is shocking to me that a whole profession was prepared to sell its soul to a leftwing political movement for a few pieces of silver: we’ll guarantee you an endless supply of research money if you help us create a socialist regime based on punitive climate taxes. What could possibly go wrong when the EU and the UN were powerful modern political fortresses of socialism? Everyone would surely just fall into line. I had a totally open mind: It would have taken just logic and undeniable evidence to get me on board. But there was no logic, no evidence, no goodwill, just a mounting pile of evidence that me and the rest of the human race were victims of a politically motivated pickpocketing. I’ve no doubt there are some in the scientific establishment whose conditioning is so strongly misanthropic — “there are too many people, we’re destroying the planet. What else could it be?” — who still believe CAGW is real instead of a relatively minor problem that can be dealt with without alarm. Even moderately intelligent people, especially those not involved directly in climate research, can succumb to groupthink, especially one that promised such riches. However, there are many in science who understand the deception, but out of professional self-interest, can’t say so. What device will Andrew Glickson, Andrew Pitman and David Karoly use to keep their funding when their partisan participation in minority Australian politics against the national interest is laid bare? I’m sure they’ll find a way to avoid the worst of the fallout, but their role as the Australian parrots of a fraudulent UN IPCC money grab will follow them to the grave.
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JB #23
“The only thing that really counts is whether the world keeps warming”
If that’s true, there IS light at the end of this tunnel
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It hasnt warmed going on 15 years now so i guess i can cheer all i like then?
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Pointman @10: wow, excellent article, and so right on all counts.
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this piece ends up with an unrealistic call to save the US clean energy industries to compete with China, but the first half is interesting:
8 Aug: Contra Costa Times: Munroe: U.S. clean energy’s bubble set to burst
“The global clean-energy industry is set for a major crash.”
— Devon Sweezy, Breakthrough Institute, July 7, 2011
Why? The answer is simple. Clean energy today is more expensive and less reliable than coal- and natural-gas-based energy. Large subsidies artificially maintain clean energy’s price competitiveness. These subsidies are likely to cease in a few years because of severe budgetary cutbacks proposed for coming years…
The clean energy industry experienced spectacular growth between 2007 and 2010 in response to $80 billion worth of direct government investments and tax credits that the stimulus program pumped into the industry…
The crash in clean energy will also spread beyond the U.S. because of fiscal problems in Europe. Clean-energy subsidies have recently been cut in Germany, Spain, France, Italy and the Czech Republic, and more cuts are likely to come…
http://www.mercurynews.com/ci_18617998?IADID=Search-www.mercurynews.com-www.mercurynews.com
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You can all join in now and wave bye bye to parity… I trust everyone enjoyed their USA holidays while they could afford them:
http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=AUD&to=USD&view=1D
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In the earlier Post on Al Gore, I was curious where ‘waffle’ said prior to the stock market crash that he wouldn’t touch energy stocks with a barge pole.
It seems he was in fact right on the money.
I noticed with interest that the stock that suffered the biggest drop on Monday was Infigen, which dropped 5.8%
Infigen is the renewable that is most prominent on the TV ads for this aptly named ‘Clean Energy Future’ we are being dragged into.
They own the wind towers most prominent in those ads.
Having lost 5.8% yesterday, they are down by almost that same amount, a further 5.8% today Tuesday.
I guess investors don’t see much future in this clean energy future.
Also down ar most other energy stocks as well, including those coal fired power operators, most of whom rank in the top 500 ‘derdy polluders’, in fact 14 of them in the Top 20, including the Top 4 of them.
Energy stocks taking huge hits like this, and them dumping a carbon tax on top of that.
That augurs well for a really ‘black’ future, literally, as the lights wink out all across the Country.
Tony.
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I’ve just watched “Science under attack” which will be screened on SBS tonight featuring Sir Paul Nurse.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V89AeCLCtJQ
make sure you don’t have anything that could damage your TV set near you as you could end up with a smashed screen.
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Yes, great article Pointman. As I wander around my local shopping centre I sometimes wonder how many people there have ever heard of Joanne Nova and I come up with “possibly one or two” only. Whenever I’m at the airport I just shake my head at the notion that one day all this will be powered by sustainables. Air traffic control can only function when the wind is blowing – come on. Meanwhile every second traveller has their head buried in their laptop – probably the blogosphere is busier there.
Actually more people are becoming aware of Joanne thanks to the Convoy. That first thread just keeps going on and on and will reach 1000 responses in a day or two.
On a slightly different note I received and returned my government propaganda yesterday. I think Australia Post will be obliged to deliver them back to the DCC. I wouldn’t be surprised if this turns out to be a massive own goal by the government because many householders will start to look into this for the first time, start checking out the blogs and contacting their MPs. They will understand that the government wants to inject what some call its “beautiful” economy with a nasty virus called the carbon dioxide tax.
Interesting times ahead indeed.
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Ms Kearney’s wishful thinking:
9 Aug: BendigoAdvertiser: Carbon tax gets support
A carbon tax could bring 9000 jobs to Bendigo, says ACTU president Ged Kearney.
Speaking at a community lecture on the carbon tax at La Trobe University Bendigo yesterday, Ms Kearney said the carbon tax would increase, not decrease, job opportunities in the Bendigo region.
The union boss said a study carried out by the ACTU and the Australian Conservation Foundation showed there was a potential for an extra 9000 jobs to be created in Bendigo by 2030.
She said the jobs could come out of new industries and cleaner technology if investment started now…
She said the union had made sure of three things before it decided to support the tax – that there would not be undue costs to households; that jobs in the industries exposed would be protected; and that there would be money left over to invest in new industries.
http://www.bendigoadvertiser.com.au/news/local/news/general/carbon-tax-gets-support/2252121.aspx
local Councils’ anger is being reported only in the local media it seems:
9 Aug: ExpressAdvocate: Carbon tax costs worry Gosford and Wyong councils
They said the carbon tax impact on roadworks and electricity costs could run to millions of dollars…
Cr Doyle said potential cost increases for Gosford were likely to be even greater than the $1.7 million predicted at Wyong.
This was because the bulk of the region’s local and regional roads were in the Gosford local government area…
“Then of course there are the costs associated with petrol, electricity, diesel and gas to factor in.
“We need to look at how we are going to fund this tax- it could be a killer blow. We have some very big question marks.”..
Some councillors fear the only way forward may be to pass increased costs onto ratepayers and that may mean a separate rates levy…
“The only alternative might be to pass the rise – about $100 a household – on through a special rate.”…
http://express-advocate-wyong.whereilive.com.au/news/story/carbon-tax-costs-worry-gosford-and-wyong-councils/
naturally at the end of this there’s talk of govt compensation! with all the offers of compensation, one wonders how high the carbon tax will have to go:
9 Aug: Herald Sun: Steve Lewis: Dairy farmers feeling the heat over carbon tax
DAIRY farmers fear paying about $6000 more for energy and losing up to 7.8 per cent of their annual income because of the carbon tax.
The dairy sector, Australia’s third-largest rural industry, has warned the Federal Government a carbon tax “will impose significant costs” and probably trigger job losses.
Agriculture is exempt from the plan to curb greenhouse emissions.
But dairy farmers will face higher electricity and gas costs – causing major concerns across an industry employing about 40,000 people.
Warrnambool dairy farmer Roma Britnell said the tax was “simply punishing farmers for producing a food that is critically needed as we approach a period where demand is outstripping supply”.
“This tax is sending a clear message to farmers that the nation doesn’t really care if this sends us to the wall,” she said…
http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/more-news/dairy-farmers-feeling-the-heat-over-carbon-tax/story-fn7x8me2-1226111234471
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Follow up to post 22,
Just looked in the MM to get the up to date rainfall figures as of 9AM yesterday Adelaide has had 39.2mm of rain (will be over 40 by now 12 noon as i type) and the average for August is 68mm so with 22 days to go i would say we are on track to at least get the average. This shows just how incompetent the BOM is…..and for all those doomsdayers out there dont bother to respond with “Aw gee shucks thats weather not climate” tell that to the BOM. Dont forget they claimed the warm first two days of August were a SIGN.
Whats good for the goose is good for the gander.
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John Brooks @ #23
John, who is predicting an ice age? Certainly not I for one very simple reason – the whole climate system is a non-linear chatoic system and inherently unpredictable.
The sceptic always has been that CO2 does not drive the earth’s climate, not that there is going to be an ice age because we simply do not know.
I suggest you study some history and come to grips with the almost uncountable occurrences of climate catastrophes which have beset humanity – and none of those could be attributed to minor internal fluctuations of the climate system.
It’s a non-problem and the correct reaction to a non problem is to do nothing.
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Rick Bradford,
I was using it the same sense that James Delingpole used it in his Telegraph blog. As for the crowd at Deltoid, I would agree that they are technically skilled, proficient, etc, but not intelligent, for any intelligent person would not support that position.
Reminds me of someone who announced that there are no stupid people – to which I had to respond – well, then there cannot be any intelligent people either, for the existence of one, relies on the other.
That caused a bit of mealy mouthed grumbling 🙂
So, yes using the word stupid might be inappropriate – unintelligent is far more subtle, since it’s the same term Charles Krauthammer used; Dellers used stupid.
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Thanks to Max L, I’ve got a proper image of the Ad now. Click the top pic if you want to see it.
But oh yes, definitely, climate suddenly isn’t the most important topic. We’ve been waiting for this “correction” for over a decade. Gold Stocks appear to be finally differentiating themselves from the pack.
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Of Topic:
Neverland power plan now put on the never never list.
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-ianmott@18
Some one will take your challenge up but, in the mean time, here is one that lent itself to parody:
~Carbon Oddity~
Climate control to Ms. Gillard
Climate control to Ms. Gillard
Take your climate modeling and start to spin real hard
Climate control to Ms. Gillard
Commencing spin, cue idiot card
Check cognition and may Gaia be with you
ten, nine, eight, seven, six, five, four, three, two, one, on-air
This is climate control to Ms. Gillard
You’ve really made that carbon trade
And the papers want to know whose shoes you wear
Now it’s time to tell the lie if you dare
This is Ms. Gillard to climate control
I’m compensating poor
And I’m gloating in a most delusional way
And the tax will be an ETS one day
For here…
Am I spinning only as a top can
It’s the end of the world
Carbon tax is due
And there is nothing you can do
(instrumental)
Though I’ve told one hundred thousand lies
I’m feeling undeterred
And I think Bob’s carbon tax is the way to go
It’s the right thing to do, don’tcha know
Aussie voters to Ms. Gillard
There’s something wrong, the tax is fraud
Can you hear us, Ms. Gillard
Can you hear us, Ms. Gillard
Can you hear us, Ms. Gillard
Can you hear…
…Here
Am I fibbing as fast as I can
It’s the end of the world
Carbon tax is due
And there’s nothing you can do…
Apologies to David Bowie– youtube, (1969)
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John Brookes @23
The fact is -“the jig is up”, no one is buying what you are selling- weather is just that… weather- always changing, never fully predictable and potentially damaging to life and limb, but well beyond the control of mere mortal man. Certainly your socialist Utopian dreams will have to hitch themselves to another bandwagon. This fat lady has definitely sung.
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TonyfromOz @ 30:
Energy stocks are fairly unique in that they are political and always lead the market. People who know more about what is going on in politics and industry, insiders, will trade in and out of energy based on their knowledge.
Energy is something which can be over-analyised. My approach is don’t bother. There are only two data points you need to pay attention to. First, the sector stock trend is downwards. Second, sector prices are upwards. That is a clear sign that any business, industry or sector, is in trouble.
pointman @ 10:
Great analysis. While I disagree on a number of points, your central argument about thug management is very lucid. If done plenty of contracting work in my time, something I do from time to time when business is slow or I have the opportunity to boost my prestige and/or professional network, and this thug management is something I’ve had alot of experience in dealing with. I have found that the one’s who can’t communicate their expertise are either incompetent or themselves are just nine-to-fivers who have lost the passion for their career.
The ones who are incompetent require mentoring, so improving their professional network is the best approach. The one’s who have lost interest need to be ‘supervised’. I’m all over these people like a rash to make sure they aren’t dragging the chain.
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My apologies for my typing dyslexia. I use this ridiculous ten year old keyboard from time to time which makes my fingers do strange things. I don’t notice it as I’m typing. Lulz.
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If we are indeed headed for another recession, it will be interesting to see the Icarus-style renewable energy companies heading for a fall. Just last week, I was interviewed by a young upwardly mobile bank executive interested in seeing how his bank could profit from renewable industries. (Silly me, I thought when I agreed to the interview that he was interested in helping me with my company!) When the penny dropped with me and he was relaying how upbeat other company owners were, I cautioned him on being overly euphoric. I told him that almost the entire renewable energy industry is riding the back of increasingly dubious “evidence” of global warming and supported by obscene and unsustainable federal, state and local government rebates. Discontinue the rebates; ease the artificial constraints on fossil fuel power and the renewable energy industry will dry up almost overnight. I think the guy thought I was a crackpot. We’ll see. Six years ago, I sould sit in a room with three other people representing solar and renewable energy in our region. Last year, in a bigger room, it was standing room only. There’s going to be a lot of blood spilled.
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Louis maybe you could point out the lack of impending ice age to MemoryVault?
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As for the advert… I guess it is a case of “know your readers”.
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MattB @ 45
Maybe you’d like to start the ball rolling by establishing when I have said we were facing an “impending ice age”?
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Bulldust “If there was any doubt in people’s minds that the big one is hitting as we read, Wall Street tumbled another 600 points over night”
It seems the ASX is surprisingly resilient today after all! I wonder if it is justified…
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MV then why so much emphasis on you wanting me to buy more jumpers?
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Pete of Perth @ 20
Too true Pete, but the website Gillard wants us all to visit to “get informed” has the following disclaimer:
Information at this site:
Is general information provided as part of CSIRO’s statutory role in the dissemination of information relating to scientific and technical matters;
is not professional, scientific, medical, technical or expert advice
is subject to the usual uncertainties of advanced scientific and technical research;
may not be accurate, current or complete;
is subject to change without notice;
should never be relied on as the basis for doing or failing to do something
Just love that last line! Very apt for Gillard’s no mandate useless carbon dioxide tax allegedly based on “the settled science”!!
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MattB @ 49
I remember watching an interview with Pol Pot just before he died.
He too was quite nonchalant, even whimsical, about his role as a genocidal mass-murderer.
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MattB @ 49
I was just reading an article yesterday about the latest humanitarian disaster looming as a result of your greenie cult and its insatiable desire to remake the earth in your own utopian image.
Seems the jatrophe seed that you greenies (in conjunction with the IMF naturally) promoted, turns to be unprofitable for the manufacture of biofuels.
So it appears that up to a million poor farmers (and their families) in Africa, India, and SE Asia are now going to starve to death because no-one wants to buy their worthless jatropha seeds.
And they are all in debt to the international banks to boot.
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MattB @ 48
Weren’t you the guy who in April 1912 was quoted as saying- “I think we only grazed that iceberg- We’ll be fine, it didn’t even scratch the paintwork!”
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MattB @ 49
If you think back MattB (assuming you have an attention span of longer than five minutes), what I have always maintained is that climate is cyclical and we have just had a warming phase and now we are going into a perfectly natural cooling phase of 20 to 30 years.
What I asked you was, if this truly was the case, what was your Plan B to help the several hundreds of millions of people your cutlist policies have now condemned do slow death from cold or starving.
Your answer was to buy a yourself a few jumpers.
Pol Pot would have been proud.
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No Winston, MattB was the guy that said a piece of foam cant break a tile.
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Well the ASX has been a rollercoaster today… the madness of the herd is on full display. You see all kinds of colourful language coming out right now (and somewhere some people are making an absolute killing, you can bet the farm on that). ASX is now up 50 points after being down over 200 earlier:
http://www.asx.com.au/
The Aussie is back to US$1.02 despite losing parity today, to be back at this morning’s starting price. The gold price is the only consistent performer, pushing up beyond US$1,750. Therein lies the true sentiment IMO… gold ramping up relentlessly means people have lost confidence, but the Aussie markets are swirling around… there are a lot of confused investors out there. Expect more fun rides throughout the week.
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MattB in 48,
Before i begin my scathing attack i must say i know what it is like to be pelted with ripe tomatoes on a GW blog MattB so far i must say you are doing your fellow warmbots proud, Keep up the good work.
Anyway MattB do you know what the plunge protection team is? They have one in the US and it is public knowledge and i am sure we have one here in Australia but not publically acknowledged.
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BD,
Can you explain something to me? If i buy say 100 shares of gold do i actually own gold that exists somewhere in the world or do i just own an expensive piece of paper?
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MattB @ #45
I can’t predict the climate state, so how can I point out to a lack of an impending ice age? Equally I can’t point to a lack of a warming period either.
So what part of ” we cannot predict future climate states” have you difficulty with?
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Just came across this over at the Just Grounds site.
Would be hilarious if it wasn’t so true.
http://network.conservative.org.au/video/gillard-explains-her-carbon
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MattB- The global financial crisis MkII and consequent Depression that appears to be looming has “robust science” to back it up, having been long predicted with various indicators having pointed this direction for some considerable time, with little or no mitigating measures being taken by governments or seemingly even advocated by many mainstream economists. Yet, you seem rather blase about this, as though it is a storm in a teacup. Yet, the climate catastrophe you are so fond of spruiking has fairly questionable indicators, contradictory evidence and little to support it except computer simulations. Seems to me to be a rather unusual cognitive process you must go through, Matt, in your approach to these threat perceptions.
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Crakar – You can buy different things:
1) Gold itself – you own the ounces (troy variety) – approx US$1,750 per troy ounce at the moment. Find a safe place to store it.
2) Gold futures, options etc – a piece of (electronic) paper that says you are eligible to receive the gold at some time in the future, but most people never deliver/collect on these.
3) Gold mining shares – shares in a company that predominantly mines gold (e.g. Newmont) which entitles you as a part owner in the company to vote at GMs, and to receive any assets should it be liquidated, after all other debtors are paid off.
There are probably numerous other weird instruments, but those are the main ones. I am not aware of “shares of gold”… I assume you mean shares of a gold mining company, or portfolio of gold mining companies.
I am not a broker, nor investment advisor, this is just what I remember from may one unit of investment finance, and general readings from time to time. Someone was telling me about “yen-carry-trades” earlier today… will have to suss that one out after work. Best I can tell it has to do with investors borrowing in the Japanese markets for invesments elsewhere, because Japanese interest rates are low by world standards. The finance types find weird and wonderful ways to move money around…
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The Perth Mint has a range of products from buying bullion, to having them store it for you and you get a certificate, through to just buying bullion on the ASX. http://www.perthmint.com.au/investment_invest_in_gold_precious_metals.aspx
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That latter is essentially buying “shares of gold” on the ASX, rather than shares in a mining company.
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Winston I’m not being blase about it, I am genuinely wondering if BD thinks the recovery is justified based on solid Aussie fundamentals (as per Adam Carr’s current piece at Businessspectator), or just blind optimism.
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MattB @ 65
We know MattB.
“Blase” is something you reserve for killing off people in large numbers – you know – the ones who can’t afford jumpers.
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I’m glad to hear that Matt, because I was beginning to worry about you. In spite of our relatively good indicators, we don’t live in a vacuum, hermetically sealed off from the world even allowing for our “solid Aussie fundamentals”. I seem to remember Ireland thinking much the same thing not too long ago, only to receive a rude awakening that all was not as it seemed only a few short months before. I see Australia as being caught in the same quicksand as everyone else- we are just up to the waist while others are up to the neck and a couple of others are going under shortly- China is on the side holding the vines- deciding if it will throw us a line or not, and just who, if any, it is willing to save.
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Winston the ABC news is telling me that a lot of the recovery is based on rumours of more qualtitative easing from the US Fed Reserve tonight… I guess we will wait and see.
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Perhaps, Matt, but I’m not holding my breath. Any measures there seem to be just forestalling the inevitable. Perhaps I’m just a cranky old pessimist, but I’ve been predicting this for so long I’m beginning to bore myself, Lol.
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Winston – I almost ended my last post with “I’m not holding my breath”.
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MattB @ 70
Pity about that.
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Hmm SBS doco tonight on warmal globing and science I might just refrain from throwing a brick at the TV if they talk the right talk!
On the crash..expect more.. London’s burning like Rome under Nero! Theres more than just riots here.
US FED = criminals along with the street AND the rating agencies! http://tarpley.net/
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Louis Hissink: @ 36.
I agree with non linear chaos in synoptic scale climate and other climate factors but I think the trend or mini-major events controlled by solar cyclic events e.g. Solar AMT (angular momentum theory) may be able to indicate events such as mini IA or full blown IA even if the timing isnt precise.
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What rebound? I was just marvelling at today’s crazy rebound on the Aussie stock markets. I certainly didn’t expect it. I am sure there aren’t any good explanations for it yet. By the time we figure out what happened today, it will be a week or two down the track and bigger news will have obliterated this blip on the downward slide.
QEIII is the word on people’s lips right now… just how much more good money is the US going to keep throwing down the hole in the hope of a recovery?
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Bulldust:
August 9th, 2011 at 7:05 am
The long term historical level for the Australian dollar is around USD1.20. The 60-70 cent levels were an aberration.
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Bulldust,
Futures and options are the right to buy or sell shares/commodities at a certain price. I know it sounds strange but, it makes alot of sense. These derivatives are basically insurance contracts to help protect the underlying assets and produce from massive market fluctuations. This extra layer of the market has been added to protect the productive component of our economy from traders.
Alot of people cry foul at the size of the derivatives market. This is improper. The insurance industry has the same disparity between the value of the contracts and their price. It would be strange to have a million dollar house and pay a million dollars to get it insured, would it not? Derivatives are not a zero sum game(when compare to the stock and commodities markets), they are leveraged financial instruments.
The difference between future and options: futures have an indefinite term, whereas, options have an expiry date. That means all options eventually become worthless. Futures, on the other hand, can achieve huge negative values. While derivatives trading seems attractive to the inexperienced, you can lose massive amounts of money if you don’t understand them conceptually and mechanically. Just remember, for every person making a fortune in derivatives, there are people losing an equal amount of money on them. It’s just like the bookie and the punter scenario.
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The thing that defeated AGW was the inconvenient fact that the planet isn’t warming dangerously.
The Warmists could only cry “wolf” so many times before people ignored their message.
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Jo,
On the up side of all the focus on the carbon issue, many other areas of science is being looked at with skepticism.
Also this shows how badly broken our government system mixed with economics has generated a huge mess. Most of the governments of the world are in financial crisis due to bad policy decisions strictly for the power of being in office.
The down grading of the US dollar should have occurred sooner. But the US arrogance tries to push their patriotism beyond it’s boarders and influence the rest of the world to the us style of government. Spending just save supporting companies is not working considering many of them went to China for more profitability.
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Almost certainly nothing but a temporary reprieve. More downgrades must occur in the near future.
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Waffle I am quite aware of the basic derivatives market instruments. I didn’t want to get bogged down in the detail here.
I am also aware of the US schools of economics and their vehement defense of the derivatives markets in all their forms… claiming that they stabalise markets. Strangely markets have become increasingly volatile in the last decade despite all these wonderful stabalising tools.
Perhaps that has more to do with the fact that we have quants in Wall Street too busy working out clever ways to screw the system rather than bending their superior intellects to benefitting society in a concrete way.
Sad really. When greed is not so good…
Agreed Bananabender… we have a long way to fall yet. I think the ASX may fall through 3,000 before we find the bottom. But this is pure gut-feel speculation ATM.
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I haven’t read all the blogs right now, but as I have said before, some of the bloggers particularly John Brooks, Adam Smith and Maxine plus dear Matt B, seem to be attacking the political stances from those attached to the carbon tax and not so much the science. Or the science
Jo promotes is a political agenda of right wing conservatives?
I mean who was so ‘stupid’ to suggest that stopping coal to China would solve the Samolia famine? Guess who, the one who said we should put restrictions on Israel. Rhianne. Who said the planet was cooling during the live ABC Tally room during the last Fed election, ‘Sen.Penny Wong’.
Who said the Greens had been invited to form a government. Adam Brandt. Just Google ‘You Lied to us Julia – Adam Brandt answers.’
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nSilyIcDgwg.
Anyway – I am sickened to my stomach about the AGW lies. I have done my best but it seems I am the type of person who hates to be left in limbo when an injustice is not resolved. I hope the Convoy of No Confidence does again sway parliamentarians for voting for this toxic
tax? I’ll continue to view the blogs. So far I haven’t seen any of the regular trolls comment, maybe I haven’t reached them yet.
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Geo thermal has crashed in WA. Probably because they have failed to get enough investment purely due to the fact it doesn’t work. See Richard
Courtney’s report in 2006. Geo-thermal in Cornwall, was not possible because the fissures closed under gravity.
Oh, Matt B is here again.
Go on face book Matt B. Snip and snap is more acceptable there.
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Look I am speaking honestly but might … well. Tony Windsor is great
friends with persons involved in the Solar industry. I believe there is a future in solar thermal – one day. I support the ideology of renewable energy, providing it is affordable to the masses, not like it is now only for those who can afford thousands to save a few thousand over 25 years. Just to save the environment, and it doesn’t work 100% all the time and has to be backed up by grid electricity.
People are getting on the gang wagon of climate change to promote the need for clean energy, prevent the destruction of the environment and lose common sense.
CO2 nor Carbon emissions change the climate – period. It has been proven wrong to assume this. So why tax it? If it doesn’t do anything but promote the investment in clean energy?
I hold my breath MattB to see how the RSA IPCC conference in Durban
evolves. In ABC’s last Monday’s Q & A. One person said ‘It will be like Copenhagen, with no one signing any unilateral agreement to sustain the 2012 Kyoto agreement.
And this stupid government is trying to put Australians down the black hole of carbon trading that the EU, the UK and NZ have and are experiencing.
The London riots are disgusting. But they have nothing to do with climate change policies.
Now Al Gore is trying to resurrect his policy. The man should be sued
and jailed for subterfuge as he has invested heavily in clean energy and also carbon trading. I hope he suffers. I believe he wants sea walls built around his property at the government’s expense. Liar.
Liar Julia Gillard, Liar Combet, Brown, Milne. You are a disgrace to call yourselves Australians. Go the CONVOY OF NO CONFIDENCE.
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Ian Mott @ 18
Challenge accepted. May pinch your line about the last Climate spivs leaving Sydney – very good!
Speedy.
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Just for the record, and it is not about ego… but guys do you know how stupid you look (whoever it was) when I get 4 thumbs down for providing information about gold investment options at the Perth Mint… in reply to a discussion about investing in gold.
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Feeling a little “needy” tonight?
By the way it wasn’t me.
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Thanks, JoNova, for this information.
Regretfully corruption of space sciences, personal attacks and smear tactics have been used as propaganda tools of the global climate scam for four decades (1971-2011).
The decision was apparently made during Kissinger’s secret visit to China in 1971 to use “Anthropologic Global Climate Change” as the “common enemy” [1] to:
a.) Unite Nations;
b.) End the Cold War, the Space Race; and
c.) The threat of Mutual Nuclear Annihilation.
To negate the Sun’s obvious control over Earth’s climate, the 1967 model [2] of a “homogeneous Sun in hydrostatic equilibrium” became official government dogma after 1971.
Precise experimental data from studies of meteorites, the 1969 Apollo Mission to the Moon, the 1995 Galileo probe of Jupiter, and even nuclear rest mass data have been ignored, manipulated or hidden.
1. “The Bilderberg Sun, Climategate & Economic Crisis”
http://dl.dropbox.com/u/10640850/20110722_Climategate_Roots.pdf
2. “The Bilderberg Model of the Photosphere and Low Chromosphere”
http://adsabs.harvard.edu/full/1968SoPh….3….5G
Hang in there!
Oliver K. Manuel
Former NASA Principal
Investigator for Apollo
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This seems as good a place as any to post this. Bye Bye Chicago Climate Exchange. What was that you were saying Julia??
http://www.chicagotribune.com/business/breaking/chi-ice-to-shutter-chicago-climate-exchange-20110808,0,7784695.story
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Hopefully I will be better able to communicate the entangled history of Climategate with the space program [1] and the model of a homogeneous, H-filled Sun in the fifth video summary of research on “Scientific Genesis”
1. Science vs. Propaganda
2. Origin of the Solar System
3. The Iron Sun
4. Neutron Repulsion
5. Global Warming
The 5th video should be completed on Thursday.
1. The Bilderberg Sun, Climategate & Economic Crisis
http://dl.dropbox.com/u/10640850/20110722_Climategate_Roots.pdf
With kind regards,
Oliver K. Manuel
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You’re welcome, Speedy, and good luck.
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Oliver K. Manuel: 89 Oliver great to see you post on here.!Great work.
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Oliver @ 89
The way I see it, around 1994 NASA Administrator Daniel Goldin put forward the proposition that putting people into space was a too costly and unsafe an exercise.
“……Dr Goldin then finally returned to the subject of manned space stations in LEO and emphasised the studies that needed to be made concerning our own planet. Thus enrolling the “let’s invest the NASA budget in our own planet” environmentalists. To this end he specifically cited the proposed examination of the sources and sinks of carbon dioxide around the Earth. Goldin stated that the belt of twenty miles of air around the planet belongs to us all……”
I doubt that Dr Goldin decided to use the NASA budget to examine the sources and sinks of CO2 off his own bat.
Given that the science of climate change has been shown to be dishonest –
NASA then has been one of the main scientific propaganda machines for the global warming scam. Their trusted name has mislead many who believed that all their pronouncements were true.
What do you think.
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theRealUniverse @ #73
It is true that a cool period (the Maunder Minimum) occurred with an absence of sunspots, but it is only one instance, and from one instance no general principle can be derived. What of sunspot activity before the Maunder Minimum and the depths of the LIA? Remember that the MWP ended ~ 1300 AD, or perhaps earlier.
I can trace my family tree back to Holland (Deventer) to 1326 AD when there were 5 families with the surname Hissink; records earlier than this date don’t exist, so one wonders what was happening before that for the priests and civic authorities not to record births, deaths, marriages etc. Since the end of the MWP occurred around that time, one wonders then what actually terminated the MWP.
If it was a cyclical physical phenomena marked by “ice age conditions” like the LIA, then there must have been a previous LIA before the 16th century one we name as such but such a cyclicity seems absent in the data.
Scaling out to geological timescales, there is no way that anyone could have worked out from the data of the past, at the time of the Cambrian Period, to have predicted the appearance of the Jurassic and subsequent Cretaceous life forms based on the fact that one could predict the future based on a previous determined past. Put more simply, looking at a Cambrian tribolite could offer you no clues about the appearance of a Jurassic dinosaur.
Although you can, obviously, note a diurnal cyclicity in solar activity, and then a longer term sunspot cycle of 11 and 22 years, and then a 60 year cycle, longer period geophysical/and or solarphysical data of a cyclical nature seem to be lacking. An exception is that the lunar cycle can be extrapolated reasonable well to circa ancient Babylonian times ~ 750 BC, but then can’t, the usual explanation being that the Bablylonians were mathematically illiterate prior to that, and afterwards, were. Perhaps.
But there is no data to allow us to predict a future IA or GW period.
It is the realisation of the unpredictability of the future that might be the basis of the fear of the future that many have, and often seek to mitigate by seeking the solace of religious certainty.
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OT. I notice that it is now pnly 400 polluders who will get the tax. If the number keeps dropping at the current rate, no one will be paying it by the time it is implemented!
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Hi Louis
“tribolite”
Should that be Trilobite.
Alz?
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An ad appeared recently in our local rag (sorry, I don’t know how to attach my pdf)
Pacific Hotel Yamba
“Friday’s now without Julia
Between 8.30 pm – 10 pm
Enjoy tax free bar prices, No GST,
No Carbon, No Mining, or Luxury Taxes
Just Great Prices”
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Have a look at the great billboard that a Brisbane businessman will be erecting on Settlement Road Keperra tomorrow regarding the CO2 TAX. Brilliant!! He intends to erect more across Australia.
Bloggers are asking if bumper stickers could be produced.
http://blogs.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/andrewbolt/index.php/dailytelegraph/comments/sending_gillard_a_billboard/
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