JoNova

A science presenter, writer, speaker & former TV host; author of The Skeptic's Handbook (over 200,000 copies distributed & available in 15 languages).


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Fires in August in 1951 in Queensland were described as “catastrophic” when CO2 was 311ppm

 The Bushfire season started in August in 1951 in Queensland

In 1946 in August “Mt Archer, in the Kilcoy district, was a 1500 ft torch tonight”. The 1951 fires did £2m of damage, and within three years the people of Queensland responded by creating six times as many fire teams and more firebreaks. One farmer put in 500 miles of firebreaks on his own property.

Since then humans have put out 85% of all the CO2 emissions we have ever put out, showing that cutting our emissions by 85% (in reality, even going wildly negative to get back to 311ppm) won’t stop fires in August in Queensland.

We don’t have a climate emergency, we have a history emergency. It’s like hundreds of years and the effort of thousands of people just doesn’t exist.

 

The outbreaks hare been the worst for years.
The fire risk is being maintained by westerly winds and the tinder-dry nature of the land.

Flames are laping 60 ft high and whirlwinds carrying blazing foliage and grass often 200 ft. high, are spreading the fire…

After the savage fires of 1951, Queenslanders formed hundreds of volunteer bushfire groups, cleared firebreaks, and it was simply understood that fires were coming, and could occur anytime after August.

1954:   State Facing Worst years for Bushfires

“The bushfires of 1951 were the board’s worst on record, with losses totalling more than £2,000,000. Mr. Healy said an outbreak of bushfires this year was so certain that it was just a question of when. There had been two recently in the Monto district, but they had soon been brought under control. Most risky time would be after August, with October possibly the worst month.?” -–  Warwick Daily News, Tuesday 15th June 1954

In 1951, there were only 50 volunteer bushfire brigades, but by 1954 in Queensland there were 300.

“One grazier in the Barcaldine district had made 500 miles of fire lines on the one property.”
Bushfire, Queensland, 1951, News

 

Out in Longreach, fires were so common, the fire season ran all year, but was reduced in winter.

12 May 1953: Trove: Winter lessens Bushfire Risk – May 12 1953

With the beginning of winter, the bushfire risk had lessened and no serious outbreaks were expected until August-September, Mr T. Pyae, manager Of Dalgety’s…

 In 1946 in August, hundreds of square miles of drought and flames

Bushfires sweep SE Queensland

Bushfires sweep SE Queensland

BRISBANE, August 14. -
Hundreds of square miles of
drought-stricken South-east
ern Queensland were aflame
tonight. From Bundaberg to
the border bushfires, driven
by south-westerly winds,
were menacing homesteads,
stations, property, stock, and
army buildings and destroy-
ing the last remnants of win-
ter feed.

And back in 1935, a pall of smoke ranged over Brisbane

The city and suburbs were again overcast with a pall of smoke from bush fires continuing to burn on he ranges surrounding Brisbane.  – 6 Aug 1935: Trove: Courier Mail Brisbane

Bushfire, Queensland, 1951, News

Thanks to Graham Dunton and Pat for finding these stories.

 

FIRES INVADE FARMS ON NORTH COAST
Several bush fires on the North Coast have threatened farms, and in some cases caused damage… -  August 6, 1935

15,000 ACRES BURNED OUT
A bush fire which started on Noora homestead after a goods train passed through burned out between 15,000 and 20,000 acres in the district… — Aug 6, 1935

LOSS AT MULGOWIE
Bush fires in the Mulgowie district during the week-end did much damage, and it is estimated that more than 1000 acres of grass was destroyed. … — Aug 6, 1935

Meanwhile this week in 2019 the ABC and Queensland fire and emergency services are telling us that the fire seasons are starting earlier.

28 Aug: ABC: Queensland bushfire season expected to last longer, authorities warn
Queensland Fire and Emergency Services (QFES) Deputy Commissioner Mark Roche said Queensland had already started its fire season, with several fires coming close to homes and killing wildlife in the south-east last week.
“The bushfire season has started early and we expect it will go later as well,” he said…

9 Sept: MyPoliceQld: Fire investigation, Lakes Creek
Following investigations into a fire in the Mount Archer area, police commenced proceedings by way of a Notice to Appear against a 63-year-old Lakes Creek man for the offence of Light Unauthorised Fire under the provisions of the Fire and Emergency Services Act 1990.
Around 1.45pm yesterday a member of the public called Triple Zero after seeing a man acting suspiciously in the area.
It will be alleged that the man was conducting his own backburning operations without a permit – and the fire subsequently spread from Lakes Creek to Mount Archer…
The man is scheduled to appear at the Rockhampton Magistrates Court on 8 October 2019.

 

And some at the ABC chose to talk up the fires, but not mention the arson which was already well known by 11 Sept: ABC The World Today: Residents return home to Peregian Beach as bushfire threat eases By Rachel Mealey on The World Today. 

Just sayin’…

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Fires in August in 1951 in Queensland were described as "catastrophic" when CO2 was 311ppm, 9.7 out of 10 based on 76 ratings

204 comments to Fires in August in 1951 in Queensland were described as “catastrophic” when CO2 was 311ppm

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  • #
    Geoffrey Williams

    Excellent reporting Jo. More of our useless media ‘hyperbolics’.
    And I’m sure that it comes as little surprise to most of us here on this site.
    We live in a vast country with often wild & unpredictable climate.
    Too many of of the public out there will of course be fooled by the media alarmism.
    Such a shame . . .
    GeoffW

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    • #
      Bill in Oz

      Back in the 1970′s history became uncool
      In secondary school across Australia
      And was merged, along with Geography
      Into something called Social Studies
      Which then became all about
      Saving the environment &
      Global Warming.
      The younger generation do NOT know
      What us older folks have known since we were kids.
      We live in a land of Flood & Drought
      Fire & Rain !
      The Queensland & NSW fires are NOT new.
      Just another repetition of
      An age old Australian pattern.
      And to be frank,
      I no longer bother reading the ‘fire news’
      From far away in Qld & NSW
      Later on in Feb & March I’ll bother
      “Cause that’s when it happens here in SA.

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    • #
      Latus Dextro

      Little different in the continental US.
      Tony Heller likewise eviscerates the Marxist eco-melodrama demonstrating a currently wetter, cooler US with a dramatic reduction in the frequency of forest fires, notwithstanding the appalling Greenista forest management practices, which if corrected, should see the frequency of fires diminish to the truly trivial. The late 19th Century and early 20th Century sustained not only the driest and hottest days on record, but a very high frequency of each compared with today, which is positively cold. Hot dry days have unequivocally declined in annual frequency through the 20th Century.
      Nonetheless, the newspaper record of the past and deep past, provide a persisting and revealing addiction to the narrative of catastrophism, whatever flavour, since time immemorial. Humans are hard wired to respond to threat. It drives newspapers as effectively as their adverts, as it does the promises and policies of politicians. That the continental US is experiencing a cooler wetter climate, and an absence of warming since 2005 is a matter of fact, despite the endlessly tormented data, adjusted past and hysterical predictions about the future.
      The Green Trojan horse is in its frantic Gretaesque death throes.

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      • #
        Geoffrey Williams

        ‘Gretaesque death throes’ I like that phrase.
        But you’d think that at least some of the more mature minded out there would see this ‘childgirl’ for what she really is; a most unfortunate and hapless individual being portrayed by the frantic media as some latter day world climate saviour. No experience of life and no knowledge of the science of climate just foolhardy calls for the world to return to the dark ages. And hardly a politician or commentator has the courage to call it for what it really is; mass hysteria in the name of some unachievable climate goal. One day Greta may wake up and discover she has been used.
        I hope that she survives unscathed.
        GeoffW

        20

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    Anyone living in the north east of the continent should have noticed the pattern: good summer and autumn rains, dry winter/early spring…just add strong westerlies, common in August/September.

    If the dry out of good growth starts in autumn (as in 1895) you’re in for a big fire season, depending on westerlies. For NSW this pattern is more pronounced because of the wind strength. We’re having a truly horrible year on the NSW midcoast right now, but lack of summer growth means there’s far less to burn.

    When Abbott was ridiculed for his fire-fighting shortly after election there was much fuss made over the fact that the fires were occurring in early spring. I can forgive someone living in Hobart or Cocos Island for not understanding. But millions who have lived their lives in the east must at some point opened a window or walked outside and looked around, if only as a brief distraction from Donkey Kong or FB.

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    robert rosicka

    Just watching the Drum and the “experts” are saying unprecedented fires at this time of year .
    Noticed Scomo is buying in to the scam in his visit to QLD .

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    pat

    13 Sept: Guardian: Brazil environment minister to meet US climate denier group before UN summit
    Ricardo Salles to meet Competitive Enterprise Institute (CEI)
    Critics say Bolsonaro lacks commitment to fight climate crisis
    by Dom Phillips in Rio de Janeiro
    Brazil’s environment minister, Ricardo Salles, will meet a rightwing US advocacy group that denies climate change, just four days before the United Nations Climate Action Summit.
    Salles will meet representatives from the Competitive Enterprise Institute (CEI) at the headquarters of the US Environmental Protection Agency on 19 September, Brazil’s Folha de S Paulo newspaper revealed.

    The meeting was immediately condemned by environmentalists, who said it showed that the government of the far-right president, Jair Bolsonaro, had no commitment to fighting the climate crisis.
    News of the meeting emerged a day after Brazil’s foreign minister questioned the scientific proof for global warming in a convoluted speech in Washington. Addressing the Heritage Foundation, Ernesto Araújo said “there is no climate catastrophe” and described efforts to fight climate change as a plot to destroy national sovereignty…
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/sep/13/brazil-environment-minister-climate-denier-group-ricardo-salles

    11 Sept: AFP: Brazil FM says ‘climatism’ a bid to restrict sovereignty
    Brazil’s foreign minister charged Wednesday that international efforts to fight climate change amounted to a plot to destroy national sovereignty as his country faces intense criticism over Amazon fires.
    Ahead of a major UN summit later this month aimed at stemming global warming, Foreign Minister Ernesto Araujo attacked what he called an ideology of “climatism” during a visit to Washington.
    “From the debate that’s going on, it would seem that the world is ending, and that’s the whole point of climatism,” he said at the Heritage Foundation, a conservative think tank.

    “The conveyers of that ideology want to create a moral equivalent of war in order to impose policies and restrictions that run counter to fundamental liberties,” he said.
    “How can someone in a time of peace dream of breaking the sovereignty of a country like Brazil over its own territory, saying ‘the Amazon is on fire, again’? Because of ideology, because of the primeval cry of climate crisis, ‘Let’s save the planet,’” he said…

    But he cast doubt on the overwhelming consensus of scientists that human activity is causing warming temperatures and downplayed the impact of Brazil’s fires, which he said were in line with annual damage…
    https://www.afp.com/en/news/826/brazil-fm-says-climatism-bid-restrict-sovereignty-doc-1k77gu1

    13 Sept: BBC: US and Brazil agree to Amazon development
    The US and Brazil have agreed to promote private-sector development in the Amazon, during a meeting in Washington on Friday.

    They also pledged a $100m (£80m) biodiversity conservation fund for the Amazon led by the private sector.
    Brazil’s foreign minister said opening the rainforest to economic development was the only way to protect it.
    Ernesto Araujo also hit back at criticism of Brazil’s handling of the forest fires.
    He told reporters in Washington that claims the country is “not able to cope with the challenges” were false…

    Mr Araujo said: “We want to be together in the endeavour to create development for the Amazon region which we are convinced is the only way to protect the forest.
    “So we need new initiatives, new productive initiatives, that create jobs, that create revenue for people in the Amazon and that’s where our partnership with the United States will be very important for us.”…
    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-49694516

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  • #
    Simon

    The climate is warming and sub-tropical Australia seems to be getting drier. Cause and effect, burying your head in the sand won’t help.

    138

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      robert rosicka

      Ahh simple – Simon , deny history all you want but drought , floods and bushfires were part of the Oz landscape long before man discovered coal .

      330

      • #
        Another Ian

        Go to TheLongPaddock and have a look at these posters:-

        Australia’sVariableRainfall 1890-2019.pdf

        Australia’sWetDryDroughtPeriods 1889-2019.pdf

        Australia’sPastureGrowthPoster 1890-2019.pdf

        Dorothea 1: IPCC 0

        230

      • #
        Kalm Keith

        Met a pie man going to the fair.
        Said simple Simon to the pie man let me taste your ware,

        110

      • #
        Lionell Griffith

        As was once said: “He who refuses to learn from history is doomed to repeat it.” I would add “with catastrophic consequences.”

        Yes, it will be a man cause catastrophe made by those who refuse to learn from history. I say, let them meet the catastrophe they caused full front with arms spread wide. Let the Darwin Effect cleanse the gene pool. You don’t have to do anything to bring it about except stop feeding them.

        Agreed. The challenge is not to be collateral damage in the process.

        160

    • #
      el gordo

      Simon climate change is cyclic, we have been here before and cannot deny it.

      ‘From Bundaberg to the border bushfires, driven by south-westerly winds …’

      That is a cold air outbreak, a precursor to a couple of cool decades.

      170

    • #
      a happy little debunker

      sub-tropical Australia seems to be getting drier

      Simon,
      You do know that runs against all the predictions/projections of global warming impacts on Australia, as made by both the BOM & the CSIRO?

      170

    • #
      Peter Fitzroy

      In those previous fires, Gondwana Refuge did not burn, as it has this time

      120

      • #
        AndyG55

        SO WHAT!

        The 100 hectare block opposite where I used to live hasn’t burnt in over 100 years.

        Fire records for that area show that MANY large areas haven’t been burnt for over 70-80 years.

        And that is in a dryish country area.

        You are cackling on about nothing, as always.

        And getting mighty DESPERATE as you go.

        Its very funny to watch. ;-)

        250

      • #
        el gordo

        Plants within the Refuge were unlucky, further south they found a species which has been around for a couple of hundred million years.

        ‘Wollemia is a genus of coniferous tree in the family Araucariaceae. Wollemia was only known through fossil records until the Australian species Wollemia nobilis was discovered in 1994 in a temperate rainforest wilderness area of the Wollemi National Park in New South Wales, in a remote series of narrow, steep-sided sandstone gorges 150 km north-west of Sydney. The genus is named for the National Park.

        ‘In both botanical and popular literature the tree has been almost universally referred to as the Wollemi pine, although it is not a true pine (genus Pinus) nor a member of the pine family (Pinaceae), but, rather, is related to Agathis and Araucaria in the family Araucariaceae. The oldest fossil of the Wollemi tree has been dated to 200 million years ago.’

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      • #
        Yonniestone

        Yes PF nature will make a predetermined decision of what to do and where, much like the shark that purposely selects you out of a group of swimmers….

        60

        • #
          AndyG55

          too rational for PF to grasp, Yonnie. !

          This is Australia.. fires happen !!

          90

          • #
            Environment Skeptic

            Yes juvenile forests/AKA plantation forests burn easily. Old growth forests hardly ever burn up into the canopy and the forest floor is shaded which suppresses the growth of forest floor fuel. Old growth forest, when they were prolific on this planet, were natures fire break.

            Short juvenile trees and tall grass are a recipe for fire.

            10

    • #
      Travis T. Jones

      Carbon (sic) induced global warming causes drier areas to get drier, or wet areas to get wetter, or is it drier areas to get wetter, and wetter areas to get drier, yet “It’s a well-known scientific principle that warmer air holds more water vapor.

      No amount of sunbeam and seabreeze collectors will ever stop that.

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      • #
        • #
          Another Ian

          Is that the conversation or the drip feed?

          140

          • #
            Peter Fitzroy

            Your wit is only exceeded by your ignorance

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            • #
              AndyG55

              Your wit doesn’t exceed your ignorance.

              Both are firmly stuck in the negative, PF

              So easily CONNED by a load of anti-science garbage propaganda trying to pass itself off as something relevant.

              Not a single scientifically oriented thought of your own.

              It was designed for LOW-EDUCTAION fools like you PF.

              Just swallow it all, then regurgitate. It all you can do.

              Now, let’s try again

              Where is the EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE in any of that AGW-mantra spew. !?

              Still waiting.. but it seems too difficult for you to find any. !

              190

        • #
          Graeme No.3

          From your reference “The influence of carbon dioxide can be seen in past changes in climate”.
          So the Earth’s temperature in the Cretaceous would have been very much warmer because the CO2 level was between 1600 & 1900 ppm. And the preceding Jurassic MUST have been warmer because it was between 2200 & 2700 ppm, except it was cooler.
          And the Ordovician at 3-4,000 ppm of CO2 cannot have ended in an ice age, as it did and a very severe one.
          And a little more modern, the Eemian approx. 125,000 years ago (the previous interglacial) was considerably warmer than today e.g. sea levels up to 6 metres higher (due to ice melting), lions, giraffes, elephants and hippos living in the Thames Valley (as known from fossils). But the CO2 level was only 285 ppm so it cannot have been as warm as today.
          Then there is the little matter that those ice cores show that warming preceded CO2 rise, and cooling happened despite the CO2 level being stable for hundreds (1900) of years as the temperature dropped.

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          • #
            Graeme No.3

            Sorry, pressed the post button before I could add a comment on the influence of rising CO2 on your IQ. Probably wasted in view of your limited cognition.

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            AndyG55

            ““The influence of carbon dioxide can be seen in past changes in climate”.”

            Does he mean like this ?

            https://i.postimg.cc/rw8jLc1R/EPICA_v_GRIP.png

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            Peter Fitzroy

            The last time CO2 was similar to current levels was around 3 million years ago, during the Pliocene. Back then, CO2 levels remained at around 365 to 410 ppm for thousands of years. Arctic temperatures were 11 to 16°C warmer (Csank 2011). Global temperatures over this period is estimated to be 3 to 4°C warmer than pre-industrial temperatures. Sea levels were around 25 metres higher than current sea level (Dwyer 2008).

            If climate scientists were claiming CO2 was the only driver of climate, then high CO2 during glacial periods would be problematic. But any climate scientist will tell you CO2 is not the only driver of climate. Climatologist Dana Royer says it best: “the geologic record contains a treasure trove of ‘alternative Earths’ that allow scientists to study how the various components of the Earth system respond to a range of climatic forcings.” Past periods of higher CO2 do not contradict the notion that CO2 warms global temperatures. On the contrary, they confirm the close coupling between CO2 and climate.

            HT/sceptical science

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            • #
              el gordo

              Sir you obviously missed Pat Frank’s lecture?

              50

            • #
              AndyG55

              Citing SkS is a good way to get LAUGHED at.

              Now, where is your evidence of warming by atmospheric CO2

              Stop ducking and weaving like a rabbit in the cross-hares.

              And stop posting links to propaganda non-science barf.

              EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE

              Find out what it means first, so you won’t continue to make the same clown-like errors.

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              AndyG55

              “they confirm the close coupling between CO2 and climate.”

              You mean like this ????

              https://i.postimg.cc/rw8jLc1R/EPICA_v_GRIP.png

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            • #
              Graeme No.3

              https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2019/04/07/if-co2-caused-mid-pliocene-warming-what-caused-late-pliocene-cooling-you-guessed/

              It asks why, if CO2 was around 400 ppm, did the climate become cooler and drier. Nice photo of camels (supposedly in the Arctic).

              One commentator seems to have Peter Fitzroy summed up:
              “I totally agree. The alarmists say it’s not the Sun’s influence, it’s all CO2. Then once presented with the ice core sample data they panic, then usually, look on the childishly named skeptical science website – this site declares the Sun’s output was low and that CO2 levels were ten times pre- industrial levels – thinking nobody will check what pre- industrial levels really were.
              I once had a two day argument with an alarmist through the Daily Mail comments section and the guy shifted the goalposts so many times that he tied himself in knots.
              Even when their pathetic beliefs are exposed they just carry on blindly without even acknowledging their theory is completely wrong. It’s no wonder skeptics label climate change as a new Religion.”

              In other words, it no good arguing with PF, it only reinforces his self belief that he will save the world. A bit like the American preacher who was killed after kayaking to a remote Indian island populated by a tribe known for shooting at outsiders with bows.
              North Sentinel Island: American missionary killed by tribe …

              https://www.abc.net.au › news › american-missionary-killed-in-india

              Contact with the natives is prohibited to save them from germs they may not be immune to… the Indian authorities arrested the crew of the boat he travelled in to the Andamans.
               

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            • #
              truth

              Peter Fitzroy…

              You cite one period when proxies tell you that CO2 was at current levels and coincided with huge SLR-without saying why those current levels produce only the steady tiny almost non-existent SLR now .

              You say nothing about the numerous times when there was no correlation at all….you say nothing about the recent divergence when CO2 rose steadily as global temperature plateaued for more than 20 years…confirmed by IPCC and UKMET office.

              You admit that there are many causes of warming other than CO2…..but you don’t name any of them.

              According to you and the CAGW racket …all the natural oscillations that are known to cause droughts and high rainfall …producing floods etc…the Indian Ocean Dipole….El Nino and La Nina…Pacific Decadal Oscillation…North Atlantic Oscillation…Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation etc…all are of no consequence….totally swamped by the effect of CO2 in trace proportions.

              You apparently think the effect of the entirely natural Great Pacific Climate Shift in the late 70s …the event that caused the step up to a new plateau of temperature-[ abruptly ending the mass hysteria the usual suspects were trying to foment back then about the ‘coming ice age]’…is also of no consequence compared to the apocalyptic effect of traces of CO2.

              That particular event precipitated the only GW trend any GW cultist can point to…I’ve asked many…and to ask is to be blocked after the requisite character assassination.

              If the CAGW CULT is genuinely alarmed about Polar melt and SLR etc why have they done almost nothing about the Asian fires and other practices that not only denude huge swathes of territory to grow palm oil and soy mainly for Europe ..but deposit SOOT on Arctic and Antarctic ice…on glaciers and permafrost..[ the permafrost melt then releasing the much more potent GHG methane] …soot that reduces albedo so heat is absorbed rather than reflected..….melting the ice leaving dark water where once there was ice…to absorb yet more solar radiation…causing more melting…setting up a CAGW Cult-endorsed catastrophic self-perpetuating GW cycle.

              Gore stands on the ice with the elephant in the room a sinister black shroud blanketing the ice behind him…forming the background to his camera shots…and spruiks pompously about traces of CO2 causing CAGW…with not a word about SOOT.

              A delegation of GW scientists warned Congress at length and in great detail about this in 2010…but your cult just blew it off…even though the deposition of this black carbon [ nothing to do with CO2]…is relatively easily mitigated compared to the massive hit on geo-politics and the well-being of human beings your LW Cult demands in the name of CO2.

              Could it be that the cult’s imperative’s not to save the planet but to misappropriate [aka steal] it for their Global Socialism objective… under which democracy and sovereignty of nations ends…their people enslaved under the rule of a self-styled uber-rich elite …the Fabian dream still strongly held by Socialist leaders …proud Fabians all…in all Western countries…certainly in Australia with almost all Labor leaders at all levels being Fabians …including…especially… the canonized old rogue Bob Hawke….in the full knowledge that their dream is freedom’s nightmare…with more than 100 million innocent people having been slaughtered in its name……so far.

              20

        • #
          el gordo

          ‘It shouldn’t be surprising that a small amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere can have a big effect.’

          That is an outrageous lie.

          170

        • #
          John in Oz

          I stopped reading after the first paragraph

          I am often asked how carbon dioxide can have an important effect on global climate when its concentration is so small – just 0.041% of Earth’s atmosphere. And human activities are responsible for just 32% of that amount.

          The human contribution of CO2 is generally put at 3.2%, not 32%.

          When the pro-CAGW proponents start getting the data correct, then we might take some notice

          80

          • #
            AndyG55

            This Clueless Clown who wrote the article is saying that ALL of the increase in CO2 is down to man’s released of sequestered carbon.

            This is obviously a total load of anti-science nonsense.

            But it passes for “science” in some mal-educated, non-thinking, regurgitative minds..!

            80

    • #
      AndyG55

      WRONG. Simon. Look at the data, not what you are spoon fed by the brain-washing machine..

      Since the 2015 El Nino the global climate has been cooling.

      Before that El Nino, there was NO WARMING for 15 years or so.

      https://i.postimg.cc/SxQy4C6M/RSS_V4_2001_-_2015.png

      There was also NO WARMING between 1980 and 1997.

      https://i.postimg.cc/fyv8vcRh/RSS_V4_before_El_Nino.png

      Please don’t emulate PF and sprout off in abject ignorance in your every post. !

      Do your homework first , so you don’t look like an ignorant fool.

      170

    • #
      AndyG55

      “sub-tropical Australia seems to be getting drier”

      Again, helps if you check some data first.

      https://i.postimg.cc/NFKb30hk/Townsville-rainfall.png

      150

    • #
      el gordo

      ‘ … sub-tropical Australia seems to be getting drier.’

      That was true up until the Austral winter of 2017 when the subtropical ridge collapsed. Since then south west WA, SA, Tasmania and Victoria have all received normal winter rains.

      NSW and Queensland may have to wait until next year before the drought breaks for them.

      100

    • #
      Bill in Oz

      Help, Help Help !
      EMEERGENCY !
      EMEERGENCY!
      EMEERGENCY!
      A Greenist troll has discovered
      Our little discussion blog about real science !
      How can we banish this imposter ?

      80

    • #
      Kalm Keith

      O.K. fair enough, but what about next week?

      KK

      50

    • #
      David Maddison

      Simon, you are a climate denier. On this group we go by historical and scientific facts.

      110

    • #
      David Maddison

      Simon, one day you should sue your school “teachers” for indoctrinating you with propaganda and failing to teach you critical thinking skills.

      90

    • #

      Simon: The climate is warming and sub-tropical Australia seems to be getting drier. Cause and effect, burying your head in the sand won’t help.

      Simon, if only you knew what cause and effect was. You’ve merely stated a correlation. Could be due to something else, could be random. IF only the models could predict rainfall? Perhaps if they included solar magnetic spectral and solar wind factors they might?

      70

  • #
    pat

    Aljazeera just had a lengthy piece from the hurricane-ravaged small islands in the Bahamas, with full-on CAGW message and concerns about Tropical Storm Humberto (which I heard hours ago was moving away from the Bahamas – see MAPS below):

    note: UN’s Freudian slip – ***one billion:

    13 Sept: UN: In visit to hurricane-ravaged Bahamas, UN chief calls for greater action to address climate change
    World leaders attending the upcoming UN Climate Action Summit are being urged to show up armed not with speeches but with plans to achieve carbon neutrality, reduce emissions and improve adaptation…
    Mr. Guterres noted that the climate crisis has generated “turbocharged” hurricanes and storms, which are occurring with greater intensity and frequency. And without urgent action, climate disruption will only get worse, packing what he described as “a triple punch of injustice.”

    “First, the worst impact is on countries with the lowest greenhouse emissions; The Bahamas are a very good example of that. Second, it is the poorest and most vulnerable people in those countries who suffer most, and again, the same has happened with the communities in The Bahamas. And third, repeated storms trap countries in a cycle of disaster and debt.”…

    “The Bahamas cannot be expected to foot this bill alone. These new large-scale climate-related disasters require a multilateral response. Climate financing is one element,” he said. “We must reach a target of ***one billion per year from public and private sources for mitigation and adaptation in the developing world, as rich countries have been promising for nearly a decade. And we must improve access to development financing. In cases like the Bahamas, I strongly support proposals to convert debt into investment in resilience.”

    “The entire international community must address the climate crisis through rising ambition and action to implement the Paris Agreement. The best available science, as reported by the Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change, says we must ensure collectively that global temperature rise does not go beyond 1.5 degrees. And it says we have a window of less than 11 years to avoid irreversible climate disruption and that we must reduce emissions by 45 per cent by 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality by 2050,” he continued…
    https://news.un.org/en/story/2019/09/1046392

    no mistaking it’s ***$100 billion here:

    13 Sept: TrinidadGuardian:
    UN Secretary General in Bahamas: World is in a climate crisis
    by Mark Bassant/ Timothy Chasteau
    Send­ing a strong mes­sage to World and Caribbean lead­ers Guter­res said, “Cli­mate fi­nanc­ing is on el­e­ment.We must reach the tar­get of ***$100 billion dollars per year from public and private sources, for mitigation and adaptation in the developing world, as rich countries have been promising for nearly a decade.”…

    PM Minnis said the Bahamas was still economically sound and its “major financial hub of Nassau was unaffected an still open for business.”
    http://www.guardian.co.tt/news/un-secretary-general-in-bahamas-6.2.934478.c81bfac907

    14 Sept: Tribune Bahamas: Hurricane Dorian Updates: The Latest On Tropical Storm Humberto
    2.40am UPDATE: Here is the latest tracking map (main picture) for what is now Tropical Storm Humberto. The National Hurricane Center has posted this: “Humberto will likely bring tropical-storm-force winds and heavy rainfall to portions of the northwestern Bahamas on Saturday. Significant storm surge is not expected in the northwest Bahamas from this system…
    http://www.tribune242.com/news/2019/sep/14/hurricane-dorian-updates-bahamas-braced-more-bad-w/

    MAPS: 13 Sept: Orlando Sentinel: Tropical Storm Humberto expected to become reality Saturday; Track shifts farther east from Florida coast
    The storm is currently located 155 miles east-southeast of Great Abaco Island, and 260 miles east-southeast of Freeport, Bahamas both of which were devastated by Hurricane Dorian earlier this month…
    http://www.orlandosentinel.com/weather/hurricane/os-ne-tropical-storm-humbeto-hitting-bahamas-florida-saturday-20190913-hvnywhptfvdnrc5tisurbdcjba-story.html

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      OriginalSteve

      The whole climate change thing is so stupid, no one can take it serously…and those who do are either scientifically ignorant or UN butt kissing socialists….

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        Greg in NZ

        … or friends or family or co-workers…
        Meanwhile in the real world, fresh cold snow this week in Oz, NZ, Argentina; Austria, Switzerland, Italy (50 cm); Norway (40 cm); USA & Canada opening soon:

        11 September World Snow Overview:
        https://www.snow-forecast.com/overviews/tips_full

        One billion – a hundred billion! – stupid failed UN prophecies = delusions of grandeur = false profit = Simon.

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      Kalm Keith

      Good catch there Pat, he has exposed the whole purpose of this “enviromanagement” scheme.

      “First, the worst impact is on countries with the lowest greenhouse emissions”.

      “The Bahamas cannot be expected to foot this bill alone”.

      You can almost hear his brain ticking over trying to work out what his 2% commission will be on a one billion dollar “rescue” package.

      And once again Humonitarian action wins the day.

      KK

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    pat

    13 Sept: UK Telegraph: Army could phase out fossil fuels to attract ecofriendly recruits, senior general says
    By Dominic Nicholls, Defence and Security Correspondent
    The Army could phase out petrol and diesel vehicles in a bid to attract ecofriendly recruits, the Chief of the General Staff has said.
    Gen Sir Mark Carleton-Smith said today’s military equipment would probably be the last to be “dependent on fossil fuel engines”, and that a move toward clean energy would be beneficial logistically and put the military ***“on the right side of the environmental argument”.
    Speaking at a defence and security event in London, he said: “The Army is leading defence on sustainable energy solutions, both at home and when deployed overseas.” ETC

    Calling on British industry to lead the way on developing new sources of energy for the military, he added: “The challenge, and genuine commercial opportunity, is to aim high and lead the world in the development of military equipment which is not only battle-winning but also environmentally sustainable.
    “That gives the British Army considerable operational benefits, such as reducing our logistical drag, and also puts the Army … ***on the right side of the environmental argument, especially in the eyes of that next generation of recruits that increasingly make career decisions based on a prospective employer’s environmental credentials.”…

    Recent Government data showed that with only 74,400 regular fully trained troops, the Army is 7,000 personnel short of the target figure.
    Recruitment campaigns such as the controversial “snowflake” adverts aimed at binge-gamers and selfie addicts, seek to address the deficit…
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2019/09/13/army-could-phase-fossil-fuels-attract-ecofriendly-recruits-senior/

    13 Sept: Breitbart: British Army to Phase out Fossil Fuels to Attract Eco-Friendly Recruits
    by James Delingpole
    https://www.breitbart.com/europe/2019/09/13/british-army-to-abandon-fossil-fuels-commit-green-suicide/

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    It’s worth recalling, in the context, the Black Thursday bushfires in Victoria which were devastating fires that swept the state, on 6 February 1851. Fortunately, the small population there then meant that only welve human lives were lost, but one million sheep, thousands of cattle and countless native animals died.

    The weather reached record extremes. By eleven it was about 47 °C in the shade, cooling to 43 °C by one o’clock and rising to 45 °C by four o’clock. The air was so full of smoke and heat that lungs seemed to collapse. The air was so dark one could scarcely see. Pastures became shrivelled wastelands, water-holes evaporated, creeks dried up, and trees exploded. Smoke filled the air, forests became one large sheet of flames. The north wind was so strong that thick black smoke reached northern Tasmania. A quarter of Victoria was a heap of desolate ruins. People fled to water to escape the suffocating air, returning later to blackened homesteads and charred bodies of animals. The weather at sea was as fearful as on land. The intense heat could be felt 32 km. out to sea where a ship came under burning ember attack and was covered in cinders and dust.

    If that sort of thing happened these days, it would be clear proof of Climate Change and the ABC would never let us hear the end of it.

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    TdeF

    And the CO2 will stay in the air forever, as the IPCC assures us emphatically. Thousands of years.

    So with all the millenia of natural bushfires in Australia and around the world over the years from Siberia to the Rockies to Brazil and Indonesia, it’s really surprising that we only had CO2 growth which accompanied recent ocean warming, as if the ocean warming causes CO2 growth. And the bushfires are irrelevant.

    The IPCC also tell us the extra CO2 goes into the oceans causing terrible Ocean Acidification. But that cannot be true as the CO2 does not go into the ocean.

    It’s very confusing, having it both ways. CO2 is a magic molecule which obeys the IPCC. Then wind electrons are so much better than coal electrons. It all makes sense if you squint.

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    george1st:)

    Relax everybody , just googled CO2 emissions from bush/wildfires and all is honky dory .
    The CO2 will be mostly absorbed by the oceans and the rest will be taken in by regrowth of the new trees .
    So the 10 or is it 100 times more emissions from world fires than Aussie outputs is no problem .
    However we must continue to build wind and solar farms ,kill the coal demons and think how good we are .

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      TdeF

      “The CO2 will be mostly absorbed by the oceans”

      Sure but fossil fuel CO2 is not absorbed by the oceans. Except to cause Ocean acidification.
      This is faux science. Something is false until you want it to be true. Like Michael Mann who says he needs to fly everywhere because
      he needs to lecture people on not flying and not eating meat. He is against a bacon and eggs breakfast, suggesting a bowl of oatmeal for everyone else. He also buys carbon offsets, like Elton John.

      As someone commented on Hollywood’s moralizing from #metoo, #jesuischarlie and jet travel, how can you believe people who lie for a living, pretending to be people they are not. That’s what actor’s school does for you. Or Climate Change. Who needs credibility when you are Leonado DiCaprio?

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        TdeF

        Just looking at the dreaded Wikipedia on Ice Cores.

        “Further research has demonstrated a reliable correlation between CO2 levels and the temperature calculated from ice isotope data.”

        Now on first reading CO2 warming enthusiasts would say this proved temperatures are driven by CO2 levels. However as CO2 is only a tiny part of keeping the planet warm, and so a direct proportionality is unexpected. However Henry’s law does give direct proportionality between CO2 in the air and ocean surface temperature.

        It all keeps demonstrating that the tortured logic to make CO2 a culprit is so much more likely than as a consequence of warming.

        This is the same pattern with bushfires. Man made CO2 increase and this increase causes warming and this warming causes extreme events and thus (more) bushfires than average. None of these conditional statements has been proven true.

        Then you get more CO2 produces more electricity which allows airconditioning and wealth which allows more people to live in Queensland which increases the chance of arson.

        Still, why state the obvious when you can get paid for making stuff up. As at James Cook University.

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          TdeF

          And as for the story that I am a scientist and an unwordly holy man and would never make stuff up, never in history have scientists had money and fame like ‘Climate Scientists”. Most of them are not even vaguely qualified as meteorologists. The number of snouts in the Climate trough are beyond counting. The former head of Climate Change Central, the IPCC, former railway engineer Pachauri flew 360,000km a year telling people not to fly. That’s 1,000km a day every day of luxury travel and redefines jet setting. To save the planet of course.

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    pat

    a complete flop. saw a bit on Sky tonite and it was truly pathetic, even tho Sky were claiming there were “hundreds”, as with SMH (and The Age):

    14 Sept: SMH: Dozens arrested as climate protest shuts down Princes Bridge, key tram routes
    By Liam Mannix and Ashleigh McMillan
    Dozens were arrested, but not before they shut down Princes Bridge for three hours from midday, causing transport chaos.
    “We have totally run out of time,” said Jane Morton, one of the protest’s leaders. “Scientists are saying we’re reaching the tipping point for an irreversible hothouse earth…
    “We are risking human extinction.”…

    It took about two hours before everyone who wanted to be arrested was, whereupon the remainder of the crowd filed off the bridge.
    Police arrested 36 people who are expected to be charged on summons with obstructing a roadway//.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/victoria/dancing-climate-protest-shuts-down-princes-bridge-key-tram-routes-20190914-p52r9k.html

    ABC can’t get excited and call it as “200″, so it was probably a hundred-plus according to the pics available online:

    14 Sept: ABC: Extinction Rebellion protest in Melbourne leads to dozens of arrests after bridge shut down
    About 200 people took part in the Extinction Rebellion rally…
    https://www.abc.net

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    pat

    before the XR segment, Sky Australia had the following “global citizen” on for a lengthy, fawning segment promoting National Geographic channel’s “Activate” series. ending poverty, plastic, CAGW by 2030 etc:

    GlobalCitizen.org: Madge Thomas
    Madge Thomas is the Global Policy and Advocacy Manager for the Global Poverty Project and leads GPP’s Education policy campaigning. A former Human Rights Lawyer, she has previously worked with the Department of Aboriginal Affairs and Department of Foreign Affairs in Australia and is an executive committee member of the Australian Institute of International Affairs (WA), which promotes understanding and awareness of International Affairs in their Western Australia and Australia
    https://www.globalcitizen.org/en/authors/madge-thomas/

    LinkedIn: Madge Thomas, Senior Director, Global Policy and Government Relations at Global Citizen, Greater New York City Area
    https://www.linkedin.com/in/madgethomas

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    pat

    13 Sept: UK Telegraph: World’s most powerful greenhouse gas on the rise ‘due to green energy boom’
    By Telegraph Reporters
    The most powerful known greenhouse gas has been leaking into the Earth’s atmosphere due to the green energy boom, it was reported on Friday night.
    Sulphur hexafluoride, or SF6, is widely used in the electrical industry to prevent short circuits and accidents.
    It is 23,500 times more warming than carbon dioxide (CO2), and just one kilogram warms the Earth as much as 24 people flying London to New York return.

    The drive to use mixed sources of power, including wind, solar and gas, rather than coal as fuel has resulted in a rise in the number of electrical devices that use SF6, the BBC said.
    A study from the University of Cardiff found that across all transmission and distribution networks, the amount used was increasing by 30-40 tonnes per year.

    Emissions of the gas in the UK and the rest of the EU in 2017 were the equivalent of putting an extra 1.3million cars on the road.
    “As renewable projects are getting bigger and bigger, we have had to use it within wind turbines specifically,” Costa Pirgousis, an engineer with Scottish Power Renewables, told the BBC…READ ALL
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2019/09/13/worlds-powerful-greenhouse-gas-rise-due-green-energy-boom/

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      pat

      13 Sept: BBC: Climate change: Electrical industry’s ‘dirty secret’ boosts warming
      By Matt McGrath
      So why are we using more of this powerful warming gas?
      The way we make electricity around the world is changing rapidly.
      Where once large coal-fired power stations brought energy to millions, the drive to combat climate change means they are now being replaced by mixed sources of power including wind, solar and gas.
      This has resulted in many more connections to the electricity grid, and a rise in the number of electrical switches and circuit breakers that are needed to prevent serious accidents…

      A study from the University of Cardiff (LINK) found that across all transmission and distribution networks, the amount used was increasing by 30-40 tonnes per year…

      Why hasn’t this been banned?
      “In the end, the electrical industry lobby was too strong and we had to give in to them,” said Dutch Green MEP Bas Eickhout, who was responsible for the attempt to regulate F-gases…
      The EU will review the use of SF6 next year and will examine whether alternatives are available. However, even the most optimistic experts don’t think that any ban is likely to be put in place before 2025.
      https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-49567197

      VIDEO: 48sec: 13 Sept: BBC: The greenhouse gas 23,500 times worse than CO2
      Adam Twine operates a green energy farm with a mission to combat climate change.
      But he’s only recently discovered a substance used on the farm to prevent electrical overloads is an extremely potent greenhouse gas.
      https://www.bbc.com/news/av/science-environment-49670489/the-greenhouse-gas-23500-times-worse-than-co2

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      RicDre

      From Comment in WUWT by TonyL:

      Relax, I just checked. SF6 has a single, very narrow and sharp absorption peak at ~10.6-10.7 um. This seems to be just about getting out of range of absorbing LWIR, so it should not be very IR active in the atmosphere. In addition, the peak is very narrow, so not likely to do much in any event.

      At least you article showed measured concentrations of SF6 in the atmosphere. 6 to 9 PPT! Single digits in the Parts Per Trillion range. Any idea how small that is? 1 Part Per Trillion is equal to 1/1000 of a Part Per Billion, equal to 1/1,000,000 of a Part Per Million. It is about as close to nothing as you can get and still have something.

      https://wattsupwiththat.com/2019/09/13/l-a-times-climate-change-facts-article-conceals-critical-global-energy-emissions-data/#comment-2794181

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      Robert Swan

      and just one kilogram warms the Earth as much as 24 people flying London to New York return

      Quite likely true.

      0 == 0

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      Umm,

      a long time ago, in a Carbon Tax time here in Australia, the Carbon Dioxide Equivalence for Greenhouse Gases was legislated and adopted by the Australian Government, and it’s still in place. This chart of gases was proposed by the UNFCCC way back when.

      I have often mentioned it, and the chart is shown in the image at this link and SF6 (Equivalent CO2 X 23900) is just one of the 24 gases on the list.

      Tony.

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    pat

    what a joke.

    behind paywall:

    14 Sept: UK Times: Lord Browne of Madingley interview: ‘I just don’t want Britain to be the sick man of Europe once again’
    Despite his reputation for optimism, the veteran political adviser Lord Browne is horrified by the constitutional crisis
    by Rachel Sylvester
    Lord Browne of Madingley advised five prime ministers in the course of almost 40 years, slipping in and out of No 10 to meet Margaret Thatcher, John Major, Tony Blair, Gordon Brown and David Cameron. Mr Blair called the former BP boss a “unique thinker”…
    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/lord-browne-of-madingley-interview-i-just-dont-want-britain-to-be-the-sick-man-of-europe-once-again-m0bflbkh5

    more excerpts found:

    Now, however, he agrees with the Extinction Rebellion campaigners that there is an urgent need to act to tackle global warming.
    “No one in the energy industry sat back and said, ‘Let’s change the climate’,” he says. “They said, ‘Let’s provide something to give people light heat mobility’, but the unintended consequence is climate change and that has to be something that engineering has to solve, along with public policy.”
    Both businesses and consumers need more encouragement to change their behaviour, he suggests. He is in favour of a carbon tax by which individuals and companies would pay for any environmentally damaging activity. “We have all the technologies we need to tackle climate change. The problem is they’re too expensive because they’re not used often enough.
    We don’t need to discover something. We need to apply it, and so we need an incentive for people — a negative one is if you put CO2 in the atmosphere you pay. Without [a carbon tax] we will not be able to handle climate change.” The money raised, he argues, should be redistributed back to the population. “This tax is not to generate revenue; it’s to change behaviour.”

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    pat

    behind paywall:

    13 Sept: UK Times: Homeowners turn away from solar panels as subsidies end
    Solar industry hit by end of subsidies, rising VAT and misselling scandal
    by Andrew Ellson, Consumer Affairs Correspondent
    Solar panel installations have slumped as suppliers struggle to cope with the end of subsidies and a damaging mis-selling scandal.
    European Union rules forcing the government to quadruple VAT on certain installations from next month is expected to further damage the industry considered crucial to the UK meeting its ambitious carbon reduction targets.

    Installations last year were down more than 75 per cent than those of 2015 as generous subsidies guaranteeing homeowners an income from selling power back to the grid have been eroded. From March this year, those subsidies, paid through a levy on everyone’s energy bills, were removed.

    One million British homes — about one in 25 — have solar panels and they collectively generate the same amount of energy as Britain’s biggest power station…
    Confidence in the industry has also been hit by a mis-selling scandal that has seen thousands of homeowners given false promises about the income their panels would generate to encourage them to take out high-cost loans to pay for them…
    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/homeowners-turn-away-from-solar-panels-as-subsidies-end-p73gdbdq0

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    pat

    behind paywall:

    13 Sept: UK Times: Back-up plants failed during blackouts, National Grid admits
    by Emily Gosden
    About 10 per cent of emergency back-up power supplies that were supposed to help avert blackouts last month failed to deliver electricity as expected, National Grid has admitted.
    The FTSE 100 group, whose job is to keep the lights on, said it was still looking into the “under-performance” by some of the companies that were supposed to provide a rapid response on August 9…

    National Grid says it had enough back-up to cover a 1,000 megawatt (MW) loss, which was all that was required under Ofgem-approved standards. However, its own report shows some of this backup failed to deliver.
    Tom Edwards, of Cornwall Insight, the energy consultancy said it appeared National Grid had been relying on batteries and small generators for the frequency response and did not appear to have had any pumped storage plants active.
    He questioned whether there was “enough diversity in the provision”. National Grid has called for a review of whether security standards should be increased so it should hold more back-up power plants. A National Grid spokesman said that “holding 1,022MW of response should be more than adequate to cover for the largest single loss of 1,000MW on the system in any one incident”…
    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/d2586a42-d58a-11e9-aa6d-16cb9f989e55

    12 Sept: Guardian: National Grid paid senior staff to leave before UK’s worst blackout
    “Very good” voluntary redundancy deals offered with a quarter of staff due to leave
    by Jillian Ambrose
    National Grid began cutting hundreds of staff from the unit responsible for keeping the lights on several months before Britain’s biggest blackout in a decade, the Guardian has learned.
    The owner of Britain’s power system is reducing the workforce at its energy system operator division by a quarter, under a programme that will take aim at the part of the company responsible for managing the electricity system.
    The 1,148-strong team will shrink by almost 280 staff to 870, through a mix of voluntary redundancies and redeployments, in plans which have been under discussion since last summer…

    National Grid hopes to “get rid of more experienced, better paid” staff, and “replace them with less experienced, lower paid workers”, according to the source…READ ON
    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/sep/12/national-grid-paid-senior-staff-to-leave-before-uks-worst-blackout

    13 Sept: DailyGazette NY: Johnstown farmer sues National Grid over stray electricity
    Lawsuit charges cows’ milk production reduced because they’re getting shocked
    by Stephen Williams
    It alleges that the electrical service to the farm, which operates at 2,800 volts, has produced stray voltage, and said problems that causes have persisted since 2012, despite National Grid saying it has addressed the issue…READ ALL
    https://dailygazette.com/article/2019/09/13/johnstown-farmer-sues-national-grid-over-stray-electricity

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    Nevertheless I am curious about the scale of the increase in CO2 since around 1950.
    311 to over 400 ppm is a sizeable increase.
    I think it is related to ocean outgassing rather than our burning of fossil fuels which means that the ice core record of past CO2 variability is way out for reasons not yet discovered.
    Is anyone looking into the reliability of the assumptions behind the ice core record?

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    Vishnu

    Fair enough but do we have any records of rainforest burning before? Eungella near Mackay and Binna Burra last week? https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-12-04/eungella-rainforest-future-questioned-by-expert/10578802

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    • #

      In 1968 nobody was looking to distinguish new climate from old, but where pockets of rainforest existed near the big burns in the Illawarra those areas were reported damaged. There is litoral rainforest in the Royal which was likely damaged by the huge burn of 1980, same for rainforest pockets in Tassie in the 1967 blaze.

      In southern regions good growth followed by dry summer and westerlies will damage any kind of forest or grassland. That’s the story of 1967. In northern parts you occasionally get such conditions but more likely you will get a fire emergency in late winter/early spring after lush growth going into autumn, the story of 1951. I don’t know the situation for the rainforest on the midcoast right now but I’d be worried, so dire are conditions here.

      With more pressure on parks should we be concerned for rainforest when conditions like the present ones prevail? I’d say yes. Should we be spending more on white elephants and giving money to rascals on the other side of the world for various forms of carbon permission while at the same time underfunding conservation and neglecting back-burns and other fire controls? (That last question was rhetorical.)

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      Yonniestone

      Some rain forests ended up as petrified wood, I’m sure some of it burnt during this process or are metal elements now an unprecedented anomaly in nature?

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        AndyG55

        Rainforests between Queenstown and Strahan (Tasmania) burnt several decades ago

        Huge loss of stored Huon Pine logs.

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          AndyG55

          When I was down there a few years ago, I remember seeing pictures of tree ferns etc as blackened stumps.

          Of course, it was all the fault of atmospheric CO2 , (probably at the sub 300ppm level)

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      PeterW

      There is no such thing as a rainforest that will not burn by the end of a prolonged dry period. It is vegetation. Without moisture, it will burn.

      The difference is that historically, burning was so prevalent in the drier areas surrounding and intersection most eastern Australian rainforests that by the time the rainforests were dry enough to burn, they were protected by large areas of previously burnt land.

      Aboriginals made a practice of burning off country as it dried., Not only did this mean that the deliberately lit fires were mild in intensity, but the ridges and spurs were burnt out while the gullies were still too moist to carry fire….. so the landscape was full of firebreaks and the horizon-to-horizon megafires we see today (despite our technology) could not happen.

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      Peter Fitzroy

      Best ask that ecologist, TonyfromOz, he knew all about those Gondwana Refuge Forests back in the 60′s. /sarc off

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      beowulf

      Mosomoso is dead right. We should be burning off fire breaks around the perimeters of rainforest national parks. Near me there is a gorge with quite complex rainforest for this area, a remnant of past times when the district had a lot more rainforest and the climate was kinder to R/f. The farmer who owns that gorge burns off around it every year or two and the R/f has survived partly from that practice and partly due to its topographic advantage.

      Rainforests don’t burn easily, but they do burn. They maintain their own humidity, but if you have a heavy fuel load in eucalypt forest next to R/f then you will have trouble keeping fire out of the R/f. Simple as that. Greenies might as well have lit the match in the R/f because that’s what their no-burn policies in the open forest have caused.

      You can expect eucalypts to invade the burnt edges where they may persist for a few hundred years until they die of old age. Their seedlings cannot germinate or survive in humid R/f conditions as the R/f re-invades its old territory around the mature eucalypts — they get wiped out by fungi. Eucalyptus ideally requires a sterile ash-bed for its seed to germinate and thrive.

      There were mountain refugia during the last ice age where R/f contracted to mostly due to desiccation, where it barely hung on — places like Barrington Tops, Comboyne Plateau, Mt Warning, The Bunyas, Mt Bartle Frere etc. From those places R/f species radiated out again into suitable areas after the ice age if they weren’t stopped by native burning practices — which they were in parts of NSW. Some tribes liked to play with matches more than others.

      Down south here there are some fire-resistant R/f species that withstand being burnt to ground level, like Grey Myrtle (Backhousea myrtifolia), which will re-grow by coppicing, and they often form a barrier around the R/f margins.

      The floristic composition of the destroyed R/f will be vastly different for maybe 500 or 1,000 years as the forest goes through 3 or 4 stages of succession. I don’t know enough about the Eungella Range rainforests, but I do know they were very complex and I can tell you there will be a ton of pioneer species like Stinging Trees etc. that pop up quickly. Your various figs will get vectored in by birds fairly early on too. They turn up everywhere. It won’t be as easy as recovering from cyclone damage, but it will happen. Flying Foxes and birds will bring in a lot of seed from other R/f patches. It’s hard to say how much of the soil seed-bank has been destroyed by the fires, but I would imagine it is a lot of species.

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        Bill Burrows

        Rainforest can also invade adjacent wet sclerophyll when the latter is protected from fires. See: Harrington, G.N. and Sanderson, K.D. (1994) Recent contraction of wet sclerophyll forest in the wet tropics of Queensland due to invasion by rainforest. Pacific Conserv. Biol. 1: 319-327.
        - https://www.publish.csiro.au/PC/PC940319

        There are also serious losses of critical fauna habitat in Cape York because various woody communities are invading grasslands. For example the golden shouldered parrot is in serious decline because Melaleuca spp. (Ti-Trees) are invading grasslands (and reducing pastoral production as well!). Likewise in one 140 km2 site in Iron Range an aerial photo study by Peter Stanton showed rainforest increased by 37.6 km2 from 1943 to 1991. [Qld is very fortunate to have all its early B&W aerials now digitised so they can be compared with more recent colour images available on Queensland Globe].

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          beowulf

          Yes Bill, I agree. Just in my backyard I have had a number of rainforest trees pop up from seed dropped by birds, and it isn’t even common rainforest species that are showing up. That must be happening all over the bush all the time. There is huge potential for rainforest to spread. I have Bower Birds BTW and they eat anything. There is a male whirring and trilling in my Silky Oak as I write this.

          Rather than blaming a change in rainfall regime for fires we should be pointing the finger at the QLD Labor government’s ignorant and dangerous land management legislative regime as bushfire’s best friend and promoter.

          Woody weeds are on the rise; ground fuel is building up everywhere; wild bushfires are on the rise; farmers are getting fined for pushing mulga to keep their stock alive, and so it goes on. All to pander to the Green inner-city Left who have zero understanding of the bush. Their idiotic policies undoubtedly kill more wildlife than they save.

          We need more fire in the landscape, not less, but it must be used intelligently.

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    Another Ian

    “If I hear people saying something must be done I know that they contemplate something damned silly”. Lord Melbourne

    (Via J.C. Masterman “The Double-Cross System”)

    Seems to describe the “CAGW slew”

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    Another Ian

    “LONG-TERM US DROUGHT AND PRECIPITATION TRENDS”

    https://wattsupwiththat.com/2019/09/14/long-term-us-drought-and-precipitation-trends/

    “Over the 1901–2017 interval upward trends in some measures of average and extreme precipitation appear, but they are not consistently significant and in the full records back to 1872 they largely disappear. They also disappear or reverse in the post-1978 portion of the data set, which is inconsistent with them being responses to enhanced greenhouse gas forcing. We conclude that natural variability is likely the dominant driver of historical changes in precipitation and hence drought dynamics in the US SE and PC.”

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  • #
    PeterW

    Gerbil Warming is a convenient scapegoat for government land management agencies that have failed in their responsibility to manage fuels.

    It is a convenient scapegoat for government that has not only failed to ensure that the land (public and private) is properly managed, but which has adopted policies that restrict oth the ability and incentive for the public to manage their own environment.

    40

  • #
    pat

    12 Sept: WSJ: Take Two Aspirin and Call Me by My Pronouns
    At ‘woke’ medical schools, curricula are increasingly focused on social justice rather than treating illness.
    by Stanley Goldfarb
    (Dr. Goldfarb is a former associate dean of curriculum at the University of Pennsylvania’s Perelman School of Medicine)
    During my term as associate dean of curriculum at the University of Pennsylvania’s medical school, I was chastised by a faculty member for not including a program on climate change in the course of study. As the Journal reported last month, such programs are spreading across medical schools nationwide…

    Where will all this lead? Medical school bureaucracies have become bloated, as they have in every other sphere of education. Curricula will increasingly focus on climate change, social inequities, gun violence, bias and other progressive causes only tangentially related to treating illness. And so will many of your doctors in coming years…READ ON
    https://www.wsj.com/articles/take-two-aspirin-and-call-me-by-my-pronouns-11568325291

    behind paywall:

    7 Aug: WSJ: Medical Schools Are Pushed to Train Doctors for Climate Change
    Movement backed by American Medical Association starts to grow, though content can be hard to fit into an already-packed curriculum
    By Brianna Abbott
    More doctors, health organizations and students are pushing for medical education to include climate change, saying that physicians and other health-care workers need to prepare for the risks associated with rising global temperatures.
    The movement, recently backed by the American Medical Association, is showing emerging signs of impact. At the University of Minnesota, medical, nursing and pharmacy schools, among others, have added content or tweaked existing classes to incorporate climate-related topics…
    https://www.wsj.com/articles/medical-schools-are-pushed-to-train-doctors-for-climate-change-11565170205?mod=article_inline

    30

    • #
      AndyG55

      “for the risks associated with rising global temperatures”

      Great time to start.. just as we are heading into a cooling period.

      They must REALLY want to show themselves up as asses rather than assets. !!

      Will they be held to account??? you can bet NOT !!!

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    • #
      Serp

      What a nightmare it is to be starting out on a career in Western medicine now that this climate emergency cant is being shoehorned into the curricula.

      The stampede of insanity continues to gather momentum in the total absence of even the most rudimentary proof and has seemingly already poisoned the future of the current generation which is demonstrating itself to be too gutless to push back against the lies.

      30

  • #
    pat

    14 Sept: WUWT: JAMA Calls for Papers of Climate Change Harm
    by Kip Hansen
    JAMA Network Open (LINK), an online open-access journal of the American Medical Association, has published “Climate Change and Health — Call for Papers” (LINK) from authors Drs. Frederick P. Rivara and Stephan D. Fihn, Editor and Deputy Editor of JAMA Network Open. It is a good thing that they have published it as an Editorial (LINK).

    This “Call for Papers” is a prime example of what leads to bias in scientific (and medical) journals. Rivara and Fihn, the editors of JAMA Network Open, expressly call for papers that will show harms from future climate change. No pretense is made to call for papers that will discuss the possible benefits or harms of future climate change — only harms…READ ON
    https://wattsupwiththat.com/2019/09/14/jama-calls-for-papers-of-climate-change-harm/

    40

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    pat

    14 Sept: WUWT: Important news from the world’s top meteorologist
    by charles the moderator
    Reposted from the Fabius Maximus Website (LINK)
    By Larry Kummer, Editor / 12 September 2019
    Summary: After years of tacit cooperation with climate activists, the first major climate agency may have begun to turn against their misuse of climate science. If so, this would be a big event in the climate debate. As seen in this interview with the head of the WMO. He has much to say that we need to hear…READ ON
    https://wattsupwiththat.com/2019/09/14/important-news-from-the-worlds-top-meteorologist/

    40

  • #
    Bill in Oz

    Meanwhile
    “AUSTRALIA’S PERISHER SKI RESORT IS EXTENDING TO OCTOBER 13, MAKING 2019 THE LONGEST SEASON ON RECORD”

    this would seem to indicate a cooler weather pattern is happening this year.

    https://electroverse.net/australias-perisher-ski-resort-is-extending-to-oct-13-making-2019-the-longest-season-on-record/

    60

  • #
    pat

    behind paywall – perhaps someone can add to the following excerpts:

    Homes lost, lives threatened on Sunshine Coast in 1986
    Courier Mail (Sunday Mail) – 13 hours ago
    THE devastating fires at Peregian on the Sunshine Coast last week saw history repeat itself – yet again… stressing that there was a great risk of fire from passengers throwing out lit… The bushfires were declared to be the worst in Queensland history at that time — and 98 per cent of them had been started deliberately, either wittingly or unwittingly.

    30

  • #
    el gordo

    Welsh swagman Joseph Jenkins was working in Maldon in 1888 and wrote in his diary that “the drought is getting serious, and the summer does not start for another month. The stock cattle and sheep are dying by the millions. Bush fires are raging, and one third of NSW is estimated to be on fire. The loss is tremendous …”

    50

  • #
    Vishnu

    So despite the snark – the Eungella rainforest burn is exceptional and massive. Far from a wet sclerophyll margin adjustment. And it isn’t coming back anytime soon.

    Beowulf – Eungella “it should have been better protected by firebreaks” – gee I wonder how it survived for 1000s of years without firebreaks – LOL well graziers don’t like to burn – why we have extensive woodland thickening degradation. And it’s now located in the dry tropics – really? Better adjust those biogeography texts then.

    And as for Andy’s despair – it’s quite obvious that the energy balance has measurably changed – Malcolm Roberts missing empirical evidence is in. https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2015/02/150225132103.htm and https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2018/04/180402123305.htm

    06

    • #
      AndyG55

      “Each series spans from 2000 to the end of 2010″

      You mean like this ???

      https://i.postimg.cc/Z5YcpqcL/Feldman_oops.png

      “0.2 Watts per square meter per decade.”

      So basically NOTHING

      That is about what you would expect from a natural change in warming atmosphere from the El Nino spike.

      And it is magnitudes LESS than the effect of even a small change in cloud cover.

      And as you can see from the dips at 2008 and 2012, it had absolutely no correlation with temperatures.

      Nor did the Feldman paper show any correlation with temperatures.

      Thanks for pointing that out to everybody.

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      • #
        AndyG55

        All these papers that say they find a “forcing” neglect to tell you that radiation does not govern in the lower atmosphere, CONVECTION and CONDUCTION do.

        Light a match, add some extra heat anywhere, and you get convective uplift that balances the atmosphere. Do you really think all these bushfires with a massive heat generated warm the atmosphere for more than a very short period of time?

        IF there was any energy being “trapped” there would be a divergence of (lol) atmospheric temperature and OLWIR.. And there isn’t.

        IF there was any “warming” from CO2 it would have to change the cooling lapse rate, and it DOESN’T.

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        • #
          AndyG55

          “They attributed this upward trend to rising CO2 levels from fossil fuel emissions.”

          Only a small amount. So a wrong assumption right from the start.. OOPS !!

          “Positive radiative forcing occurs when Earth absorbs more energy from solar radiation than it emits as thermal radiation back to space”

          But its not !!

          OLR matches atmospheric temperature almost exactly, no divergence at all.

          https://i.postimg.cc/QdXnDknT/CERESvUAH.png

          No extra heat is being trapped.

          CO2 is a tiny band of IR and immediately passes any absorbed energy onto the rest of the atmosphere, where convection takes over. No warming.

          The only warming in the last 40 years has come from El Nino releases of absorbed solar energy.

          ps: Above, the (lol) was meant to be after “trapped”

          60

    • #
      beowulf

      Oh dear, we have one here. Firstly, I was replying to Peter Fitzroy, not you. Secondly, there was no snark, merely a statement of fact. If you’re averse to facts that’s not my problem. Try reading everything I wrote above, starting at 20.5; 20.5.1.1; 29.2.1.3; 29.2.1.4. Then try absorbing it. I already said half of what you just said. The other half of what you said is drivel.

      The rainforest was protected by thousands of years of LOW LEVEL native fire management in surrounding open forest, where as I pointed out fuel loads were not allowed to build up like they are now due to government mismanagement and interference. What do you imagine happened before white man arrived? That the good fairy protected the patches of rainforest?

      “Graziers don’t like to burn”. What a joke. Don’t tell graziers that or you’ll get hung. Ever met a grazier? Ever got outside of the metropolitan area? I doubt it. Absolutely graziers like to burn — when it’s appropriate. I don’t imagine you’ve managed too many pastures in your time, eh? Burning clears rubbish, kills woody weeds and freshens up the feed. They aren’t burning off like they used to because there is so much Green tape and so many restrictions placed on them these days by the QLD government.

      Eungella has now moved to the wet tropics has it? I thought Ingham, Innisfail, Tully and Cairns were wet tropics; I thought Bellenden Ker and Bartle Frere were wet tropics. You really need to consult those geography texts you profess to know and try reading them this time. The Wet Tropics start at Townsville and go northwards, genius. Eungella is about 400km south of Townsville. I even quoted the rainfall figures for Mackay near Eungella. It has a pronounced dry period over winter, a very dry period on average. You think 20mm rain a month is wet tropics do you?

      The regime that has changed in the recent past is not climate, but incompetent, dogma-driven government interference in land management.

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      • #
        el gordo

        ‘What do you imagine happened before white man arrived?’

        The locals picked up what they could carry to use as fuel at the next camp. As a consequence, over 40,000 years, along the walking tracks and around the camps, there would have been a shortage of kindling.

        When the explorers first came over the Blue Mountains they said the flood plains looked like Arcadia.

        20

        • #
          Kalm Keith

          “When the explorers first came over the Blue Mountains they said the flood plains looked like Arcadia”.

          I’m not sure what the connection is with the walking tracks?

          20

          • #
            el gordo

            They used the word to describe pastoral simplicity and happiness, grasslands cleared of deadwood. When the locals went on walkabout they picked up fuel along the way, it was the fossil fuel of its day.

            10

            • #
              Kalm Keith

              Yes, I thought that’s what you said but is that the complete picture?

              10

              • #
                el gordo

                Monday, 6th.

                After the explorers returned and told the Governor of the western plains, he sent out George William Evans (Assistant Syrveyor) to do a proper reconnoiter. This is his diary entry for December 6, 1813.

                ‘The Night was very bad; I was greatly afraid the weather would continue so; this morning had a better appearance; the river now forms large ponds; at the space of about a mile I came on a fine Plain of rich Land, the handsomest Country I ever saw; it surpasseth Port Dalrymple; this place is worth speaking of as good and beautiful; the Track of clear land occupies about a Mile on each side of the River; I have named it after the Lieut. Governor. “O’Connell Plains”, on which we saw a number of wild Geese but too shy to let us near them; the Timber around is thinly scattered, I do not suppose there are more than ten Gum Trees on an Acre, their Bark is amazing thick at least 2 Inches;

                ‘At 3 o’Clock I stopped at the commencement of a Plain still more pleasing and very Extensive; I cannot see the termination of it North of me; the soil is exceeding rich and produces the finest grass intermixed with variety of herbs; the hills have the look of a park and Grounds laid out; I am at a loss for Language to describe the Country; I named this part “Macquarie Plains”. I have walked till I am quite fatigued being so anxious to look about me; there is Game in abundance; if we want a Fish it is caught immediately; they seem to bite at any time; had I brought a quantity of salt we could cure some 100 lbs. of them, I am quite astonished at the number the Men catch every Evening, the Dogs thrive on them; I shall bring one home with me to shew you.’

                00

              • #
                Kalm Keith

                And?

                This plain was completely natural: untouched by humankind and never touched by fires lit by the Original Inhabitants??

                It was just as nature made it?

                KK

                00

              • #
                el gordo

                Humans inadvertently altered the natural environment by restricting bushfires.

                00

    • #
      Kalm Keith

      Bizarre and tragic that so many are being “trapped” in the CO2 is bad meme and ultimately humiliated when they fail to throw off the yoke, open their eyes and see for themselves.

      There are millions of Greta wannabes out there all looking for their moment of fame.

      KK

      20

  • #
    Vishnu

    Oh dear Beowulf – I don’t think so. Hanging seems a tad emotional – what about a cup of tea on the verandah. Do some basic research about woodland thickening in Australia. It’s quite well understood http://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Committees/House_of_Representatives_committees?url=/jsct/kyoto/sub38attach4.pdf Read producers groups comments on the matter of thickening. If you have thickening you don’t have enough fire in the system – much of woodlands are fire sub-climax systems. Graziers if ever caught out (with no grass) after burning in a year that turns dry become fire wary. Don’t bung on the green tape nonsense. If so quote the parts of the legislation that prevents fire management. And given you are a student of rainfall numbers you may have noticed the ongoing drought – would you have suggested burning what’s left?

    And I think we know how the previous owners managed the vegetation – Bill Gammage’s “The biggest estate on earth: how Aborigines made Australia”

    The dry tropics generally refers to the Burdekin catchment. I didn’t say wet tropics did I? Gee I wonder what those colours around Mackay mean? Seems a tad moister? hmmmm
    http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/ncc/climate_averages/rainfall/index.jsp?period=an&area=qd#maps
    The point is that this system has burnt massively and that is a record event. Whether one could attribute it to climate change is most debatable as with all one-off events but it’s certainly very unusual. Perhaps all that fuel buildup from when the previous lot were in power? But I’m just messing with ya.

    03

    • #
      robert rosicka

      Vishnu eh, sure you’re not Fitz ? Please re read or should I say read your links again but get a grown up to explain it all especially the woodland thickening claim you make .

      50

      • #
        robert rosicka

        Also from your comments you have no idea about farmers / graziers and how they manage the land .
        As for the red tape involved in fuel reduction burns I have no idea what it is in other states but here in Victoriastan the criteria to conduct a burn on a certain day is onerous and comes with a multitude of conditions that have to be checked off on the day .
        Any box doesn’t get a tick then the burn is cancelled and the process with the red tape starts all over again .
        I know of areas that were prepped over three years ago but never burnt for one reason or another

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      • #
        Bill Burrows

        Hello Robert
        An aside: I’m not sure who Vishnu is but he (?) has a writing style that I am familiar with under several other aliases.

        However I am not here to defend Vishnu but rather to defend myself. This is due to the fact that I am the one and the same Billy Burrows who compiled the ‘woodland thickening’ bibliographic overview referenced by Vishnu. As I grew up on a prickle (grazing) farm in Central Queensland, that was plagued by woodland thickening; and subsequently spent a full working life (40+ years) studying the phenomenon (with the help of 3 highly relevant degrees) I hope I am “grown up” enough to further illuminate you on woodland thickening.

        Here is a more recent contribution on woodland management issues that was compiled for a Parliamentary inquiry earlier this year:
        https://www.aph.gov.au/DocumentStore.ashx?id=a1a621eb-ec14-4ea8-bce9-dabed009877f&subId=665845 [Submission to House of Representatives Standing Committee on Agriculture & Water Resources 2019 Inquiry into the impact of land management policies on the agricultural sector].

        And now I’m at it I also provide a link to another Submission which shows how the wider issue of woodland thickening is entwined in Australia’s Climate Change policies:
        http://www.environment.gov.au/submissions/climate-change/review-climate-change-policies-2017/bill-burrows.docx [Submission to 2017 Australian Government’s Climate Change Policies Review].

        [Incidentally many people pursuing deep green agendas seem to equate ‘regrowth’ with ‘woodland thickening’. The effects in depressing underlying pasture production are similar in both cases, but there are notable ecological differences which are important to understand from both a policy and carbon accounting context – especially in Northern Australia. Regrowth in this region is the response of woody plants to imposed disturbance (e.g. tree clearing/thinning) of what were originally intact woodland systems. Sites subject to regrowth may have been disturbed several times following cycles of ‘clearing’ history.

        ‘Thickening’ refers to the increase in tree/shrub basal area, foliage cover &/or plant density on ‘intact’ (never before cleared) sites that were originally more open woodland communities at the introduction of domestic livestock grazing. The causal mechanism is thought to be the change in fire incidence in these communities which occurred when management by indigenous peoples was displaced by pastoralism and management by Europeans.

        This impact accelerated following the widespread adoption of 4WD vehicles & water tankers, graders and bulldozers, petrol driven water pumps etc after WWII. The replacement of European (Bos taurus) cattle breeds with better (tropically) adapted B. indicus cattle from the late 1950’s (along with dry season supplementation with urea-molasses mixes) also contributed to the lowering of fire incidence - thus allowing the woody plants to thicken up from their more open ‘sub-climax’ state that was maintained (for millennia?) under indigenous management.

        Up here in the deep north we have a saying “that in the dry season European cattle have the decency to die before the grass dies, but Brahman derived cattle receiving urea-molasses supplementation do not. Hence the latter tends to reduce the impact of fires in the late dry season as fuel loads and fire spread are now much lower under pastoralism – whether fires are deliberately lit or are a result of lightning from early storms].

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    Interestingly, the two driest years according to several records for the Eungella vicinity are 1902 and 1915, same as for here on the NSW midcoast. Already 2019 is much wetter than those years’ totals.

    Of course, the real hazard is a good growth followed by little to no rain in the winter/early spring. As now around Eungella! Just add westerlies! Looking at the abrupt shift from very wet to very dry after summer 1951 in the Eungella area it’s easy to see how fire could invade even rainforest, especially when you consider the park itself does not get as much rain as towns in the region. Would fire damage to the rainforest have been given special reportage if it occurred in 1951? We know what happens now. Certainly, nobody would have held the event up to the light to look for distinguishing evidence of AGW. Now they do!

    If a rainforest burnt a long time ago, we might not have heard about it from people more concerned with buildings and cattle. We can know how much rain fell and did not fall in the past across a number of records, though we can’t know much about the key ingredient of wind. Fire in a rainforest like Eungella has to be very rare and significant, and I’ll file it away as such.

    The country’s biggest fire (and maybe the world’s biggest) was in 1851, but we have to consider that it occurred when aboriginal burning practices were winding down and Europeans had not cleared as much crown-fire country as today. WA’s worst was in 1961, Tassie’s in 1967, SA’s in 1983. The deadliest fire was in 1939, but someone might say that services were less available while someone else will say there were fewer people on the ground to get hurt. Really, how long is a piece of string?

    The problem is that all reportage on climate events now carries a political and globalist stink. A fire in a rainforest sprouts white elephants a thousand or ten thousand miles away while money changes hands between banksters in the opposite hemisphere. And you can bet that not a cracker will be spent on commonsense maintenance and conservation.

    Remember conservation?

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    Vishnu

    AndyG55- well sorry state of the art science is not up to your expectation requiring this different hand waves from yourself. The authors having demonstrated actual measurement of amplification of radiative forcing in line with theory, Andy’s retort is “no”. Do try reading the papers and report back. (and I apologise for the empirical evidence – cognitive dissonance can be deafening).

    15

    • #
      AndyG55

      Sorry you are too dumb to realise you have fallen for AGW pap.

      You obviously can’t take your so-called “evidence” being ground into the dirt.

      No link to temperature in either paper.

      Tiny so-called “forcings” in a tiny thin band that are far outweighed by cloud forcing.

      Forcings measured during large El Nino spike when atmosphere was radiating more anyway.

      Complete ignoring of convection and conduction.

      DENIAL of data showing no heat is being trapped.

      As someone said.. you seem to be licking PF’s boots.

      I hope they are tasty.

      50

    • #
      AndyG55

      That one study is Feldman 2015 (1) under carefully controlled “CLEAR sky” conditions. But then, there is Dong, Xi, Minnis 2006, under “ALL sky” conditions, that found the reverse.
      https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/f7284311bd39f1b54da5654cf20551919fa9f4c3e7880870c2c03fc6d223dac9.jpg

      ”Similar to the clear-sky study, we also provide the all-sky upwelling SW and LW fluxes to study the surface radiation budget under all-sky conditions. The rates of net SW and LW fluxes are −0.07 W/m^2 [per year] and −0.37 W/m^2 [per year], respectively, resulting in a decrease of 0.44 W/m^2 per year in NET flux at the surface (Figure 3b). The decline of NET flux, however, does not correlate with the increased surface air temperature as illustrated in Figure 3a. The surface air temperature is determined by the sum of NET radiation fluxes (downwelling and upwelling SW and LW fluxes) and nonradiative fluxes (sensible and latent heat fluxes, ground heat flux and energy flux used for melt), as well as the large-scale advection [Wild et al., 2004]. Wild et al. [2004] investigated this counterintuitive result and concluded that it may be due to a decrease of surface evaporation and associated reduced evaporative surface cooling.”

      ”… using the Stefan-Boltzmann equation indicates that an annual increase of 0.04°C air temperature each year corresponds to an increase of 0.4 W/m^2 per year in upward LW upward surface emission. However, the measured change is a decrease of 0.26 W/m^2 per year as shown in Figure 2e.”

      Dong, Xiquan, Baike Xi, and Patrick Minnis 2006. “Observational evidence of changes in water vapor, clouds, and radiation at the ARM SGP site.” Geophysical Research Letters
      http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2006GL027132/full

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      • #
        Kalm Keith

        Interesting, but after all of that you have to say that any attempt to do a mass, heat and momentum transfer analysis on solar input and low grade output is a bit like barking up the wrong tree.

        There’s a way around this IF you can find relevant linked factors but trotting out Stephan and Boltzman to give a bit of a sciency feel is a sure give away that this really isn’t science. And these are the good guys?

        KK

        20

    • #
      el gordo

      ‘ … measurement of amplification of radiative forcing in line with theory …’

      In the real atmosphere the amplification isn’t happening, we cannot see any ‘positive feedback’.

      40

    • #
      AndyG55

      Furthermore, CO2 is meant to “trap” OLWIR.. But OLWIR has been INCREASING for over 60 years. !!

      https://i.postimg.cc/VkNTwGDL/OLR-62.jpg

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    • #
      el gordo

      Vishnu the system is in balance, with an inherent natural lag. Its plain to see you don’t get out much, this post by Park is worth a read.

      https://wattsupwiththat.com/2016/05/12/negative-climate-feedbacks-are-real-and-large/

      30

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